mickeymom629
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 24, 2002
Thanks so much for responding to my comment. Yes, rides had their issues for sure. We got a bonus LL for BTMR down during our time and we were let out of Buzz after tapping in .I'm sorry about yesterday's MK prediction. We expected a 3 and it was a 6. That's the highest crowd level we've seen for a post-MNSSHP Thursday in the first week of November since at least 2015. I don't think there's any way the models would've predicted that, just based on history.
Our working hypothesis is that the MK is getting more visits from guests using the discounted tickets Disney's been offering. We're going to see if adding that to the models will help.
There were some significant instances of downtime in the MK yesterday:
We think about 8% of the park's overall ride capacity was unavailable, where 1-3% is typical. That doesn't explain the 3-point jump, though.
- IASW was offline about 24% of the day
- Buzz (24%)
- BTMRR (23%)
- Pirates (20%)
- Peter Pan and Haunted Mansion with 10% each
The rest of the park predictions were slight overestimates:
Keep in mind that the crowd levels are tied to Disney's posted wait times. We use posted wait times because they're objective and transparent - everyone understands what 60 minutes means, for example, and you can verify yourself, without having to believe us, that Disney says the wait is 60 minutes.
- EP: Predicted 5 was 3 (3% downtime)
- HS: 6 was 4 (5% downtime)
- AK: 4 was 3 (5% downtime)
That said, Disney's posted wait times are often inaccurate and in unpredictable ways. That introduces errors into the predictions and into the evaluations of what actually happened.
We had a modified day at Epcot today (arrived late and left early) and I'd say your prediction of 6 was probably correct. I'll be curious to see.
@lentesta edited to add that Disney also changed the MK close time to 10 (I didn't see this until we were in the park, so maybe I missed TP email notification or forgot), so maybe the later time had something to do with the crowds?
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