Rumor of future discounts

[park]

A number of things about Disney's business strategy in recent years conveys that they aren't especially concerned with the addicted fans. Either they figure we're already hooked and will continue to come regardless of cost (which is no doubt true for many, especially for those who own DVC) or that there are enough first-timers to fill the rooms that the regulars who are turned off by price increases leave vacant.

SO agree with you! I think in the end they will be wrong, but that is their prerogative I suppose.

 

[TheWrightTrip]

I wonder how many millionaires vacation at wdw? My brother who makes 500,000 + a year hated everything about wdw. His wife said epcot was just a "fake europe" she would rather go to the real thing. They prefer to take their family to europe or other exotic places. Not saying the rich don't visit wdw, but IMO disneys biggest consumer is the middle class making between 50,000- 250,000 and they are outpricing their customers.

Wholeheartedly agree!

 

[chrisw127]

I wonder how many millionaires vacation at wdw? My brother who makes 500,000 + a year hated everything about wdw. His wife said epcot was just a "fake europe" she would rather go to the real thing. They prefer to take their family to europe or other exotic places. Not saying the rich don't visit wdw, but IMO disneys biggest consumer is the middle class making between 50,000- 250,000 and they are outpricing their customers.

I think this is 100% true. My husband's sister and her husband are very well-off. They loathe WDW. A Disney vacation is a middle-class/upper middle class thing for the most part. Yes there are exceptions--we all hear about actors like Drew Carey who love the parks--but overall, people with more money have different options.

 

[havoc315]

I wonder how many millionaires vacation at wdw? My brother who makes 500,000 + a year hated everything about wdw. His wife said epcot was just a "fake europe" she would rather go to the real thing. They prefer to take their family to europe or other exotic places. Not saying the rich don't visit wdw, but IMO disneys biggest consumer is the middle class making between 50,000- 250,000 and they are outpricing their customers.

Plenty of very wealthy people visit Disney. Celebrity family visits to Disney are often reported as well. And the world has tons of wealthy people (Disney World is an international destination). Plenty of families from Europe.... Come here to go to Disney World. Tons of wealthy people, and only a few thousand "deluxe" rooms that overlook the Magic Kingdom.

In terms of volume, Disney's biggest consumers are the middle class... yes. But Disney makes more off 1 of wealthy family staying at the Grand Floridian, than they make off 5 economical families staying in a value resort.

If (Big IF) Disney can maintain occupancy rates in the 85-90% range, they won't see any reason to offer generous public discounts. They will continue targeted discounting, trying to drive the 85% to 90%.... or the 90% to 95%. But they would rather have 85% occupancy at full price, as opposed to 95% occupancy at half price.

When they offered the biggest discounts (according to their earnings press conferences), they were able to boost occupancy up to about 90%. When they first started trying to wean discounts last year, occupancy fell to about 80%. With more moderate discounts offered late last year for 2011 bookings, and more limited offering spaced out in 2011, they have maintained occupancy of 85-90%, and they seem pretty happy with that rate.

The question is, whether the economy has improve sufficiently that they can maintain that 85-90% rate, with even fewer discounts.

But from their press conferences, it is clear, they are willing to accept slightly lower occupancy rates, in return for non-discounted rates.

A big big date will be early August... it's the 7th or 9th, I think, when Disney releases earnings. If we haven't seen any discounts by then, the press conference should give us strong hints at that time. If they talk about occupancy and revenues being up, with strong winter bookings.... then say goodbye to discounts. If they talk about declining bookings, then absolutely new discounts will be coming.

 

[Disneylvr]

You are getting more than just buses... you are getting to basically be right next to either Epcot or the Magic Kingdom, you are getting Disney-level service and theming, etc, etc.

"Disney-level service" seems to be declining in quality based on the frequency of bad reports I have seen posted on DIS lately, particularly housekeeping. Yet prices go up every year and now they want to wean guests away from discounts? We skipped a Disney vacation this year because it is just getting too pricey for us to go annually. Maybe we will go next year; that is our plan. But who knows after that.

 

[park]

I personally think Disney is willing to risk unfilled rooms because they feel that with:

1. The mending economy more people will spend
2. There are more international visitors willing to spend
3. Those who come regularly to Disney--and for long periods (loyal customers) will come anyway.

I dispute these. The economy--while somewhat better--is still not strong. There is however a disparity in the recovery and the well-off classes are doing better than the middle classes. As the "millionaire" question asks--are these people enough to fill the rooms?

Yes, there are more international visitors than ever. And the dollar is making that easier. But flights are very expensive. Not sure I can comment here.

My third point I would say is supported by this thread. Full-price for rooms has gone up, up, up and without discounts many people will go elsewhere. Disney may say--we can fill the rooms with the first two categories. We'll see.

 

[havoc315]

I think this is 100% true. My husband's sister and her husband are very well-off. They loathe WDW. A Disney vacation is a middle-class/upper middle class thing for the most part. Yes there are exceptions--we all hear about actors like Drew Carey who love the parks--but overall, people with more money have different options.

I live in 1 of the wealthiest towns in America. The cheapest houses in my town start at around $700,000, for a tiny cottage fixer-upper. (I'm not poor by any means, but I am by the standards in my town). And every young family in town, visits Disney at least once.

Tell me... Especially with the new 3-night minimum, how many middle class families could afford the Premium and Platinum packages? (For a family of 4... an extra $1,000 per day for tours, food and shows).
Or who can afford a club level room at the Grand Floridian during Christmas week?

The majority of visitors to Disney world are middle class --- because the majority of Americans are middle class. But the rich visit Disney World just as proportionately.

If anything, for a middle class family... they save to make Disney their "big vacation."
For the wealthy family, the trip to Disney is the secondary side vacation...
Typical in my town would be something like, "Thanksgiving at Disney World, winter break in Cancun, and spring break in Paris."

 

[Amy&Dan]

Just curious how do you go for 2 weeks and only pay 2200.

I don't! The difference in my next two week trip, vs. the one I just took is $2200 more. We all actually $2,17o.00 more.

I paid 4562.00 for our two week package at POR in June 2011, that same package is now 6732.00 for our 2012 dates (same dates, same resort, same meal plan same tickets).

So if this rumor of no future discounts holds true, that is an increase in just one year of quite a bit. I think that is around 32% higher.

I also want to add that I do think wealthy people go to WDW. Obviously wealthy people have little kids who watch Disney movies and shows, they want to experience the same American icon/right of passage all the rest of us do. On the other hand, I don't think super wealthy people make up the repeat guests. They can afford to be pampered in other destinations. You can stay concierge at WDW and get your little pillsbury dough boy pastry puffs and cookies, but that is hardly first class pampering. Disney clearly has known all along that its the middle class visitor who will fill the vast majority of their rooms. Which is why they built moderates and values. They just built a brand new value (well they built on the site of a value that never got finished) not a brand new deluxe.

Its all speculation and they are for sure making discounts seem elusive when they deliver so many of them via pin codes most of us don't get. But if another hurricane season like 2004 comes along, if the economy isn't that much in recovery mode (doesn't feel like it for my family or any of my friends here in Denver Colorado but Bob Iger may feel its all good to go) then they may think differently.

If they have this lag in business when they first do away with discounts, are they willing to keep staff on in spite of the lag in business? I doubt it. So while we worry about discounts the poor cm's probably worry they'll be let go while Disney does this proposed plan. Or they think they'll just go work at Universal which will probably start to discount like a drunk sailor on leave to lure in people who want to go to Orlando but don't want to pay what Disney charges.

I do agree first time visitors appear to be the big target right now but first time visitors may not book so much when those commericials that advertise "get free dining during select dates" dont' show up on tv anymore.

A weak dollar is helping international visitors come but remember Disney has been offering nice big juicy discounts for them too. Free dining always seems to get its start with the UK offers. And countries all over Europe are facing grave problems. Europe is in trouble too and the fact we aren't shoring up our money problems makes them nervous. If I was about to plunk down thousands on a vacation in a country whose government could shut down, I might keep my thousands to myself until things look more stable.

 

[havoc315]

I dispute these. The economy--while somewhat better--is still not strong. There is however a disparity in the recovery and the well-off classes are doing better than the middle classes. As the "millionaire" question asks--are these people enough to fill the rooms?

Disney certainly hopes so. Between the more premium deluxe hotels... The ones with the more outrageous prices... How many rooms are there in the Grand Floridian, Contemporary, and Polynesian?

There are only 853 rooms at the Polynesian. 1041 at the Contemporary (not sure how many of those are in the cheaper garden building). 900 Rooms at the Grand Floridian.

So, less than 3,000 of the real premium deluxe rooms. In the grand scheme of things, that's not a lot of rooms.

If the goal is 90% occupancy through the year.... And we estimate an average of a 5-night stay, per family -- That's approximately 197,000 families, through the year. Considering the millions and millions of families that visit Orlando every year, that's really not a very big number.

80,000 people or so, spend a ridiculous amount of money each year to go to the Superbowl. So can Disney find.. throughout the whole world, 197,000 families willing to pay an outrageous rate for a premium Deluxe Disney hotel?

 

[Zippa D Doodah]

Lisa, when people like you are thinking of not going toWDW for their next vacation, to me that should be very concerning to Disney.

We have been 17 times in the past 8 years, we just got back from two wonderful weeks.

But when I plug in our dates for next June, same two weeks, same resort, same tickets, same meal plan and its over $2200 (I got free dining this year)more it makes me realize there's not offering discounts and then there's simply a ludicrious difference in what I have been paying vs. what I will pay if in fact Disney does not offer me a discount.

I am pretty sure we will still go, it will most likely be our last trip before our son joins the Marines in 2013 but we will have to drop the hoppers, water parks, QSDP and probably a few days to make it happen if we don't get that discount.

I am composing an email to send to Disney.

I agree that the difference is ludicrous. However if I am reading your post correctly, I think Disney would consider that situation a win for them. They will still get your money yet they will have to provide fewer goods and services to receive the same (or close enough) amount of money.

Participating in the thread over the last few days, I have been thinking that one problem Disney has right now (or maybe that we have with Disney!) is not so much that the rack rates and ticket prices have gone up so much so quickly, but that the value of the parks and resorts has not kept up.

I am far from a Disney basher, but I just don't see a lot of significant added value during my 11+ years of travelling regularly to WDW. Attractions come and go, some of which I like very much. Some resorts have been plussed, although not without attendant price increases. DME is nice, but again -not without significant cost to guests whether they use it or not.
All this to say, for all the ways WDW has changed over the last 11+ years it is still pretty much the same basic experience as it was back then. You still go to the same parks, ride many of the same rides, use the same FP system, take the same Disney transportation to get to the parks, stay in the same resorts (with maybe a few bells and whistles added on), shop at a lot of the same stores in DtD (expect now there is no PI).
The only thing that has changed remarkably is the price.

I will continue to go when I feel like it, but I feel like it less and less. This makes me think Disney is doing the smart business thing catering to first-timers (domestic and/or international) because it is cheaper to entice them to visit and to spend extra money.

Stinks for us though.

 

[mickeystoontown]

Lisa, when people like you are thinking of not going toWDW for their next vacation, to me that should be very concerning to Disney.

We have been 17 times in the past 8 years, we just got back from two wonderful weeks.

But when I plug in our dates for next June, same two weeks, same resort, same tickets, same meal plan and its over $2200 (I got free dining this year)more it makes me realize there's not offering discounts and then there's simply a ludicrious difference in what I have been paying vs. what I will pay if in fact Disney does not offer me a discount.

I am pretty sure we will still go, it will most likely be our last trip before our son joins the Marines in 2013 but we will have to drop the hoppers, water parks, QSDP and probably a few days to make it happen if we don't get that discount.

I am composing an email to send to Disney.

I have two very dear friends who are as Disney addicted as I am. One is not going at all in 2012, the other is currently contemplating cancelling her upcoming trip. They have both been going for many years and their kids have grown up going to WDW. Its just sad.

As you know, we have never contemplated spending our Summer vacations anywhere else but at Disney. Well....there was that time when I had a really high fever, was halucinating, talking out of my head and thought about going on a two week road trip out West. But, then, I took two aspirins, went to bed and woke up with a clearer mind.

In all seriousness, this is the first time in many, many years that we are seriously thinking about spending our money (or at least a significant portion of it) elsewhere. Like you, we will, in all likelihood, still go to Walt Disney World, but we may also shorten the stay at Disney and venture to other places in Orlando. I've already looked into the deals that Universal is offering as well as those offered by Sea World. In addition, I'm researching offsite tourist attractions, restaurants and hotels. I've got to admit that those other resorts/attractions are looking mighty tempting.

I used to be the one who was always championing Disney's perks and extolling the benefits of staying onsite and telling everyone that those perks and benefits far outweighed the money-saving costs of staying offsite. However, with the constant rise in the prices, I am not sure that I can continue to do so. Yes, I love the fact that I can park my car and let Disney do the driving for us. Yes, I love spending those extra evening hours in the park. Yes, I love the convenience of having the dining plan. Yes, I love having Disney take my packages to my resort for me. Even still, I know that I can do without those perks because we did many years ago when were "offsiters".

Just like you, I plugged in dates for next year to get an idea of what I could expect for our 2012 vacation. I used the same number of days, same resort, same tickets....but one less person. The total for three people without dining, was $265.19 more than I paid this year for four people. When I added dining, it increased the price by $1,546.20. That's more than half of what our rooms and tickets (8 day with no add ons) would cost.

I am known as the unofficial Walt Disney World vacation planner in my social circle. I've helped people from all walks of life and with varying budget (Judges, Judge's secretaries, Assistant District Attorneys, attorneys, members of our church family and family members) price out and plan their vacations to Walt Disney World. They know they can come to me to tell them like it is. Well, telling them like it is now is different than it was before.

I truly hope that everybody here on the boards realize that they need to put pen to paper (okay, so most folks don't actually write "real" letters any more but ya'll know what I am talking about ) and voice their thoughts and concerns to Disney. Like I said in my email to Disney, I am just one little fish in the sea that swims/travels to Walt Disney World every year but I wanted them to hear what I had to say. Maybe if all of us did this, they'd feel more inclined to continue to put special offers out there that we can all use. If they don't, then we will all "do what we gotta do".

 

[tlaw66]

I have to say my family amnd myself are going to Disney world for the first time in 2012. If disney thinks they are making friends with firsttimers they are wrong. I own a small business and won't pay anyone $500 a night for a room that i am not in but 6 hours to sleep. We are staying off site and useing the youth service program to save on tickets. The only dinning we will do at disney is princess breakfast. So if Disney is scareing you loyal people off there business will falter i for one will only go one time not every year.

 

[Amy&Dan]

I agree that the difference is ludicrous. However if I am reading your post correctly, I think Disney would consider that situation a win for them. They will still get your money yet they will have to provide fewer goods and services to receive the same (or close enough) amount of money. Participating in the thread over the last few days, I have been thinking that one problem Disney has right now (or maybe that we have with Disney!) is not so much that the rack rates and ticket prices have gone up so much so quickly, but that the value of the parks and resorts has not kept up.

I am far from a Disney basher, but I just don't see a lot of significant added value during my 11+ years of travelling regularly to WDW. Attractions come and go, some of which I like very much. Some resorts have been plussed, although not without attendant price increases. DME is nice, but again -not without significant cost to guests whether they use it or not.
All this to say, for all the ways WDW has changed over the last 11+ years it is still pretty much the same basic experience as it was back then. You still go to the same parks, ride many of the same rides, use the same FP system, take the same Disney transportation to get to the parks, stay in the same resorts (with maybe a few bells and whistles added on), shop at a lot of the same stores in DtD (expect now there is no PI).
The only thing that has changed remarkably is the price.

I will continue to go when I feel like it, but I feel like it less and less. This makes me think Disney is doing the smart business thing catering to first-timers (domestic and/or international) because it is cheaper to entice them to visit and to spend extra money.

Stinks for us though.

It sure does stink!

They will get my money 2012 because it is our last vacation before my son joins the marines. But they won't get me booking that same package I did this year without a discount. We will probably go 4 nights less, stay in a value, skip the QSDP (think grocery order and offsite pizza delivery) and we will not park hop or do the water parks. We may also just go for 5 nights then go over to Universal. I haven't even checked into what kind of deals they offer these days.

Then in 2013 we are already thinking we will go to San Diego, my son will graduate from boot camp so we can go see him, spend some time down there and maybe do Disneyland for a day or two. Staying offsite since DLR onsite hotels are very expensive and we can stay across the street for less than half.

Another example of Disney not getting my money is I think we probably just ate our last character meal last month. We went for dinner one night with my family of four and my brother's family of four. We had four kids aged 16, 14, 10, and 10. Our total for dinner was $405. We all agreed it was fun and the food was good but it was not $405 good. It wasn't that long ago my family (even after my kids were both over 9) could eat a character meal for far less than $200 for our share. Now its holiday pricing when we go which just adds insult to injury. It was the first character meal I had done in two years and now I remember why! So while I lost my resolve for that dinner, when that bill showed up (and I knew it would be expensive but seeing it just irritated the crap out of me) I told my husband we were done with dinner literally.

In some ways, my family got into a rut with our travel. We started going to Disney when my kids were younger and it was a great vacation. I used to argue Disney was a good deal. But now I don't make that point anymore. I do travel other places and those other places are either just a bit more than they were 5+ years ago or even cheaper. I love WDW and its been wonderful but when we are priced out or just made to feel like they don't want our business, I think if we branch out we'll be surprised at how much fun we can have in other places. For a lot less money!

 

[Amy&Dan]

I am known as the unofficial Walt Disney World vacation planner in my social circle. I've helped people from all walks of life and with varying budget (Judges, Judge's secretaries, Assistant District Attorneys, attorneys, members of our church family and family members) price out and plan their vacations to Walt Disney World. They know they can come to me to tell them like it is. Well, telling them like it is now is different than it was before.

.

I am the same way. Right now I am helping some friends plan their first trip in October. They are staying at CBR, base tickets, MNSSHP tix, DDP for a ten night stay. No discount for their dates yet (and I told them confidently a year ago when this all started some discount would surely come out). I have to tell you they are excited but also almost in buyers remorse. They are going for their kids and plainly stating this is a once in a lifetime trip. They have been married 15 years and its taken them this long to save up. They are your average middle class family but I will be shocked if they go back. And if they do it will be a long time from now. With airfare, package, souveneirs, etc., this vacation is costing them well over $5,000. They could have saved about $600 going the value route but that really doesn't make it so much more affordable that they wanted to do that.

They keep asking me "how do you afford this?" I told them the other day, "I don't anymore, our Disney days appear to be numbered". Because even with discounts its still expensive and my kids are older now, have been so many times and we feel like maybe its time to spend half the money and try something else.

If I could drive and stay offsite or at least eat offsite that would help. But we live 1800 miles away and renting a car is expensive and dh won't budge on that.

Dh really wants to take a road trip to Las Vegas, Grand Canyon, San Diego and Disneyland next summer. I am holding out because in spite of my rants on this thread, I want to go to WDW. We'll see what happens.

 

[havoc315]

Lots of talk about people writing to Disney to complain. I fully support such efforts, BUT... the only real communication they care about, in this regard.. is communicating with the wallet. If enough people skip Disney, that's what will make the impact. If they are booked solid, they won't really care about thousands of complaint letters from non-guests.

I really don't think discounts are dead. Rumors from CMs and travel agents seem to be split between, "something is coming by August" and "Don't expect anything."

But I think we can tell a lot about the current state of things. September is 1 of the slowest months of the year for Disney, and they only offered scaled back discounts. (Smaller room discounts, the memory package for free dining). In 2009 and 2010, they announced winter free dining in July..... Seems unlikely to be coming in July this year.

It's pretty clear, that things won't be the same as 2009 and 2010.

 

[dawgsgirl]

This is a great discussion and I have really enjoyed it. I am one who has grown tired of playing the Disney discount game. I usually have an AP and those discounts have greatly decreased. I have never received a PIN. With the rising prices, Disney is slowly pricing me out. To add insult to injury, I received a 40% PIN today for Universal. Guess who's getting my money???

 

[AmberHeartsDisney]

I myself do plan around discounts but we are buying a DVC next year so all we will need it tickets.

 

[skier_pete]

When we first went as a family in 2006, we stayed at the POFQ - a mod. Disney has managed in 5 short years to pretty much price us out of the mods - at least without free dining. Since we don't mind the values, we still find it affordable, though we are lucky enough to be a family of three.

However, I am amazed that ANYONE pays the money to stay in the Deluxes. We spend so little time in the hotel on a Disney trip, it seems crazy to spend a fortune on our room. We were able to stay using DVC points last year, and I was not so impressed partly for that very reason. It's one thing to pay those prices at a resort where you are spending all/most of your time at the hotel, but when you leave your room at 8 AM and often only spend 2-3 waking hours in it, it seems crazy to me.

The problem I have is that my job, while reasonably high paying (we'll just say it's close to six figures), only gives me a 2-3% raise a year, while Disney raises their (overall) prices by 5-10% a year. I'm already bracing for the time when Disney prices us out of staying on-site. I can see the writing on the wall. It might still be several years off because we don't have a problem with the values, but it's coming none-the-less. (I'm already bracing for the point when DD is no longer a Dining Plan "child".

 

[nrpofp]

Plenty of very wealthy people visit Disney. Celebrity family visits to Disney are often reported as well. And the world has tons of wealthy people (Disney World is an international destination). Plenty of families from Europe.... Come here to go to Disney World. Tons of wealthy people, and only a few thousand "deluxe" rooms that overlook the Magic Kingdom.

In terms of volume, Disney's biggest consumers are the middle class... yes. But Disney makes more off 1 of wealthy family staying at the Grand Floridian, than they make off 5 economical families staying in a value resort.

If (Big IF) Disney can maintain occupancy rates in the 85-90% range, they won't see any reason to offer generous public discounts. They will continue targeted discounting, trying to drive the 85% to 90%.... or the 90% to 95%. But they would rather have 85% occupancy at full price, as opposed to 95% occupancy at half price.

When they offered the biggest discounts (according to their earnings press conferences), they were able to boost occupancy up to about 90%. When they first started trying to wean discounts last year, occupancy fell to about 80%. With more moderate discounts offered late last year for 2011 bookings, and more limited offering spaced out in 2011, they have maintained occupancy of 85-90%, and they seem pretty happy with that rate.

The question is, whether the economy has improve sufficiently that they can maintain that 85-90% rate, with even fewer discounts.

But from their press conferences, it is clear, they are willing to accept slightly lower occupancy rates, in return for non-discounted rates.

A big big date will be early August... it's the 7th or 9th, I think, when Disney releases earnings. If we haven't seen any discounts by then, the press conference should give us strong hints at that time. If they talk about occupancy and revenues being up, with strong winter bookings.... then say goodbye to discounts. If they talk about declining bookings, then absolutely new discounts will be coming.

That depends on what you call wealthy. I would bet my right arm 95% of their customers are middle to upper middle class. The trully rich are more likely staying in the suites not the garden view rooms at the deluxe resorts.

 

[drgnfly30]

Really, do you watch the news? I would not go to Mexico if the trip were free. You may say your resort is secure, but you still have to get from the airport to the resort. NO WAY! I'm staying in the good old USA!

Good.. more drinks & palapas for me! It's a tourist area far removed from any of the violence of the border towns... but I digress.

Oh & we even rent a car & venture offsite *gasp*!