ROFR Thread April to June 2024 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[BWV Dreamin]

It’s not very low despite being stripped….. it’s actually higher than other contracts when you adjust for the lack of points in 24/25.

That would be assuming one rents the points and also amortized time over the life of the contract. For me, two years out of the remaining 42 years is negligible. For me, when my points are available, I will have purchased at 125/pt. Assuming it passes.

 

[AstroBlasters]

That would be assuming one rents the points and also amortized time over the life of the contract. For me, two years out of the remaining 42 years is negligible. For me, when my points are available, I will have purchased at 125/pt. Assuming it passes.

For comparisons, there is another stripped Poly contract for sale near $170/pt. If your logic is correct, they should accept an overpriced offer at 125/pt. Will be interesting to see if that happens. I do appreciate your perspective, but do disagree.

How is it amortizing over the life of the contract?

If someone buys or ROFRs a contract with 24/25 points then they can literally rent those points the day the points load and have the money in the bank within a week.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

How is it amortizing over the life of the contract?

If someone buys or ROFRs a contract with 24/25 points then they can literally rent those points the day the points load and have the money in the bank within a week.

Value can be amortized over time. Assuming the product doe not depreciate, you can assess a value per year over time, in this case remaining 42 years. For each year where there are no points, that is a loss in value. What that amount is depends on several factors, but there is a loss. That can’t be ignored when submitting an offer. So you either gain the benefit by renting points to offset an offer or make a low offer when there are no available points to offset the purchase price. You may have a better chance is offsetting your purchase price depending on your rental rate. For me, I went in lower. Regardless, I fail to see how $125/pt on a stripped price is overpaying. What should the price have been? Not basing my numbers on an algorithm. Too many other subjective factors at play.

And neither here nor there, I am very happy with the accepted offer. Thank you for your interest in my purchase price

 

[AstroBlasters]

Value can be amortized over time. Assuming the product doe not depreciate, you can assess a value per year over time, in this case remaining 42 years. For each year where there are no points, that is a loss in value. What that amount is depends on several factors, but there is a loss. That can’t be ignored when submitting an offer. So you either gain the benefit by renting points to offset an offer or make a low offer when there are no available points to offset the purchase price. You may have a better chance is offsetting your purchase price depending on your rental rate. For me, I went in lower. Regardless, I fail to see how $125/pt on a stripped price is overpaying. What should the price have been? Not basing my numbers on an algorithm. Too many other subjective factors at play.

I truly am not trying to bash your deal as there are so many factors that go into what makes sense for someone.

I’m only referencing it relative to your comment about “testing the ROFR monster at $125pp”.

I’m going to drop it now, but I wanted you to understand why other posters were stating that it isn’t really “testing the monster” if someone comes along and reads “I got Polly for $125pp” without referencing any of the other critical factors.

 

[JackosinDIS]

Value can be amortized over time. Assuming the product doe not depreciate, you can assess a value per year over time, in this case remaining 42 years. For each year where there are no points, that is a loss in value. What that amount is depends on several factors, but there is a loss. That can’t be ignored when submitting an offer. So you either gain the benefit by renting points to offset an offer or make a low offer when there are no available points to offset the purchase price. You may have a better chance is offsetting your purchase price depending on your rental rate. For me, I went in lower. Regardless, I fail to see how $125/pt on a stripped price is overpaying. What should the price have been? Not basing my numbers on an algorithm. Too many other subjective factors at play.

And neither here nor there, I am very happy with the accepted offer. Thank you for your interest in my purchase price

I don’t think AstroBlasters is saying that you are overpaying, just that if Disney are going to compare apples to apples, then your contract, with the 24 and 25 points would be equivalent to $145pp… which they may not take.
I think the point you are making is that the optics of any contract selling at $125 regardless of how stripped or loaded it may be, could be unpalatable for Disney, in which case they may take it as it’s below their ‘what they want new buyers to see’ price.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I’m truly am not trying to bash your deal as there are so many factors that go into what makes sense for someone.

I’m only referencing it relative to your comment about “testing the ROFR monster at $125pp”.

I’m going to drop it now, but I wanted you to understand why other posters were stating that it isn’t really “testing the monster” if someone comes along and reads “I got Polly for $125pp” without referencing any of the other critical factors.

Accepted. We are just discussing here. However, if this contract passes, I will have gotten it at $125/pt when my points are available. I’m not paying for points that are not available.

Thanks for your discussion.

 

[MIDisFan]

Correct. But in this case you can’t separate the price as it is very low offer despite a stripped contract. It is still factored in in the averages of resale pricing. Do they want any contract to sell at $125/pt? Has there been any Poly resale passed at $125/pt regardless of available points? I am not seeing any. As such, this will test the floor of resale pricing for Poly.

I passed on 3/29 at $125 with 12/23, 100/24 and 100/25 points. I had no concern when I put that offer in, but just before I heard back, Disney started taking a few back. That was a nervous few days.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I don’t think AstroBlasters is saying that you are overpaying, just that if Disney are going to compare apples to apples, then your contract, with the 24 and 25 points would be equivalent to $145pp… which they may not take.
I think the point you are making is that the optics of any contract selling at $125 regardless of how stripped or loaded it may be, could be unpalatable for Disney, in which case they may take it as it’s below their ‘what they want new buyers to see’ price.

True and this is the concern. Totally stripped, there is still value and what value Disney feels it should be is what will get tested.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I passed on 3/29 at $125 with 12/23, 100/24 and 100/25 points. I had no concern when I put that offer in, but just before I heard back, Disney started taking a few back. That was a nervous few days.

Well that is a fantastic buy. First I have seen that low. Prices have started to increase.Your timing was perfect.

 

[jolynne28]

Well that is a fantastic buy. First I have seen that low. Prices have started to increase.Your timing was perfect.

There was a $110 and a $112 that both passed in early March, both had full 2025 points. Both contracts were over 200 pts.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

There was a $110 and a $112 that both passed in early March, both had full 2025 points. Both contracts were over 200 pts.

That is why.

 

[wilkydelts]

However, if this contract passes, I will have gotten it at $125/pt when my points are available.

This just shows you are missing everyone’s point. Because had you bought higher and rented two years of points it would be below $125.

 

[Chili327]

This just shows you are missing everyone’s point. Because had you bought higher and rented two years of points it would be below $125.

What is that number then? At what ppp amount of 2 years of points does it come out even? $135, $145, $155, etc at $20pp rental what’s the break even?
@JackosinDIS mentioned $145, but I’m not sure if that was just hypothetical or if in fact was DVC math.

 

[AstroBlasters]

What is that number then? At what ppp amount of 2 years of points does it come out even? $135, $145, $155, etc at $20pp rental what’s the break even?
@JackosinDIS mentioned $145, but I’m not sure if that was just hypothetical or if in fact was DVC math.

It depends on how a buyer values the stripped points. Bare minimum is $10pp for any years where you have to reimburse dues and $18pp where you do not have to reimburse dues.

Per @HyperspaceMountainPilot , people who rent themselves and not through a broker can get $20-$25pp at very in demand resorts. So stripped points that could have been used at a brand new poly tower villa in 2025 could definitely have been worth a premium.

Once again, this is not about a specific deal…. but an educational discussion for people considering how to evaluate contracts that have stripped points vs ones that are not stripped since it seems that a lot of the contracts on the market right now have overinflated prices and are stripped of points.

 

[Chili327]

an educational discussion for people considering how to evaluate contracts that have stripped points vs ones that are not stripped

I’m here for it.

Thanks for the education.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It depends on how a buyer values the stripped points. Bare minimum is $10pp for any years where you have to reimburse dues and $18pp where you do not have to reimburse dues.

Per @HyperspaceMountainPilot , people who rent themselves and not through a broker can get $20-$25pp at very in demand resorts. So stripped points that could have been used at a brand new poly tower villa in 2025 could definitely have been worth a premium.

Once again, this is not about a specific deal…. but an educational discussion for people considering how to evaluate contracts that have stripped points vs ones that are not stripped since it seems that a lot of the contracts on the market right now have overinflated prices and are stripped of points.

Just noticed I was tagged in while I was busy navigating DLR (the crowds for the new Pixar fireworks show were next level and I wasn’t even on Main Street), and thought I would weigh in.

Re: @BWV Dreamin’s specific contract, I sure wouldn’t want to be the one insuring it against being taken. Most of my time active on this board are during the ROFR monster’s slumber, but I could at least hypothetically imagine DVC wanting to pick contracts by lowest nominal price (ESPECIALLY if sellers are paying 2024/2025 dues)—it’s not like they are going to run out of Poly points for the contracts they sell in 2024/2025. My general feeling is that Disney will take a few here and there to make impatient buyers want direct speed and security but they aren’t actually going to try to defend any specific price at least until closer to the sale date.

More generally, I think each year of points that can be used at least 60 days after close should be worth $5-$40 depending on where you use them, if you have to pay dues, etc, with the majority being about $10-25 (net of dues)— part of what makes banked points so valuable is that you usually aren’t expected to pay dues on them, so they should be worth more (assuming they aren’t about to expire). On one extreme, if you look at a BWV Dec contract with 2023 points banked into 2024, you can use those points at the 11mo window and get a value over $50/pt (vs standard hotel room) but it’s quite possible you’ll get at least $30/pt of use value (if it’s saving you a hotel stay at crescent lake) or maybe only $23 if you rent directly, or $18 if you use a 3rd party. For 2024 points, if you pay dues, those values would be $42/$22/$11 respectively. The PVB point chart is heavy, so you probably won’t get anywhere near $50/pt but you could at least get $22 renting/transferring ‘24 and ‘25 points before the 7m booking mark, if you’re not paying dues on either year, maybe you’re only losing like $14/yr of missing points? Arguably less after taxes—but you’re planning to stay at Poly those years those points might be worth even more to you than $22-23, especially if PVB point rental prices go up.

Tl;dr— the value of points varies both by resort, buyer, and where you fall in your UY, but my person general rule of thumb is: “dues free banked points are worth + $15-20/pt, current year missing -$15 (assuming no dues owed), 2025 year missing -$20 (assuming you get a credit for dues…which could rise beyond your credit), so if a contract is missing ‘24 and ‘25 points, I’d value it about $35(dues credit)-$53 (not credited) less per point…but if you don’t plan to use 24-25 points and would never try to rent or bank them, that discount may not be appropriate for you.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

Just noticed I was tagged in while I was busy navigating DLR (the crowds for the new Pixar fireworks show were next level and I wasn’t even on Main Street), and thought I would weigh in.

Re: @BWV Dreamin’s specific contract, I sure wouldn’t want to be the one insuring it against being taken. Most of my time active on this board are during the ROFR monster’s slumber, but I could at least hypothetically imagine DVC wanting to pick contracts by lowest nominal price (ESPECIALLY if sellers are paying 2024/2025 dues)—it’s not like they are going to run out of Poly points for the contracts they sell in 2024/2025. My general feeling is that Disney will take a few here and there to make impatient buyers want direct speed and security but they aren’t actually going to try to defend any specific price at least until closer to the sale date.

More generally, I think each year of points that can be used at least 60 days after close should be worth $5-$40 depending on where you use them, if you have to pay dues, etc, with the majority being about $10-25 (net of dues)— part of what makes banked points so valuable is that you usually aren’t expected to pay dues on them, so they should be worth more (assuming they aren’t about to expire). On one extreme, if you look at a BWV Dec contract with 2023 points banked into 2024, you can use those points at the 11mo window and get a value over $50/pt (vs standard hotel room) but it’s quite possible you’ll get at least $30/pt of use value (if it’s saving you a hotel stay at crescent lake) or maybe only $23 if you rent directly, or $18 if you use a 3rd party. For 2024 points, if you pay dues, those values would be $42/$22/$11 respectively. The PVB point chart is heavy, so you probably won’t get anywhere near $50/pt but you could at least get $22 renting/transferring ‘24 and ‘25 points before the 7m booking mark, if you’re not paying dues on either year, maybe you’re only losing like $14/yr of missing points? Arguably less after taxes—but you’re planning to stay at Poly those years those points might be worth even more to you than $22-23, especially if PVB point rental prices go up.

Tl;dr— the value of points varies both by resort, buyer, and where you fall in your UY, but my person general rule of thumb is: “dues free banked points are worth + $15-20/pt, current year missing -$15 (assuming no dues owed), 2025 year missing -$20 (assuming you get a credit for dues…which could rise beyond your credit), so if a contract is missing ‘24 and ‘25 points, I’d value it about $35(dues credit)-$53 (not credited) less per point…but if you don’t plan to use 24-25 points and would never try to rent or bank them, that discount may not be appropriate for you.

In my case, I can not use the points until 2026. My UY is April for this contract. I did not want a Dec UY which I probably could have gotten a similar price ( maybe) with current points. But I opted to go lower, not rent to offset. Yes, I could have paid more for that option. I did not want to do that ( let’s also put a value of time and money when it comes to renting those points).

Lots of variables but I would say your assessment is fairly reasonable. We are still in an inflationary environment and discretionary spending is changing. My hedge for these points is on the back end.

Just took a look at some current listings. Some are stripped but have ‘25 points asking up to $170/pt. Will these people drop down to your estimated list price of 130’s/ppp? Will be interesting to watch. The closer we are getting to opening sales, it seems these resale prices are increasing.

 

[wilkydelts]

Go put the deal in the DVCROFR.com pricing tool.

dvcrofr currently ranks that Poly contract in discussion 25th of 29

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I don’t think AstroBlasters is saying that you are overpaying, just that if Disney are going to compare apples to apples, then your contract, with the 24 and 25 points would be equivalent to $145pp… which they may not take.
I think the point you are making is that the optics of any contract selling at $125 regardless of how stripped or loaded it may be, could be unpalatable for Disney, in which case they may take it as it’s below their ‘what they want new buyers to see’ price.

Yes that is the discussion.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

dvcrofr currently ranks that Poly contract in discussion 25th of 29

Not sure how well I trust that ranking. Mine is 17th somehow and I still feel like I overpaid for poly lol