Hurricane Irma?

[SpookyJ]

They know more than you think they know! They were VERY accurate with Harvey!

I'm not saying I think I know better than meteorologists, though. I know they were accurate with Harvey. I only meant that all the sources I have seen claim Irma is really unpredictable even to the meteorologists and different than Harvey in that regard.

 

[HopperFan]

Governor talking now .... he's going over everything from
water locations, school closings, media help in locating supplies, fuel, tolls ....

Friday last day to prepare before the winds increase.

Tampa is now issuing sandbags as well as the S FL locations.

 

[SaintsManiac]

One good thing is I get to watch the return of Outlander on Sunday.

Definitely a silver lining!

 

[fla4fun]

Update on food - just got home from work. Publix was busy, and out of water, but said they will be getting more before the weekend. Peanut butter gone except for some odd varieties. Still stocked with bread. Snack aisles were about half empty. But everyone was calm and patient, and it sounded like there would be restocking of most items before the weekend. So I got some non-perishable food for during the storm and regular food for the next few days.

Not sure where I will be riding out the storm. I have family in Cocoa Beach, so if it goes up the east coast they are coming here and if it goes up the west coast I will go there. We just want to stick together! Still planning on going to Disney Tuesday, and it could be that we will be happy to have a hotel room available. I am not so concerned about missing any attractions or meals since I go often.

Everyone stay safe!

 

[snowangl317]

We are here now, staying at Animal Kingdom Lodge. No info directly from WDW yet. We are supposed to fly out on this Saturday, 9/9 at 5pm. What happens if we can't fly out? Should we try to leave earlier? If so, we lose a park day on Friday (Animal Kingdom with Pandora fp - our only animal kingdom day). Any advice??

Have seen differing reports as to when it will effect Orlando area with wind/rain etc.

 

[HopperFan]

I'm not saying I think I know better than meteorologists, though. I know they were accurate with Harvey. I only meant that all the sources I have seen claim Irma is really unpredictable even to the meteorologists and different than Harvey in that regard.

Governors news conference ...

Questions asked when further evacuations will be ordered ...... Governor just said "We know it will hit the east coast, west coast or go up the middle .... we just don't know. Hard to tell people where to go when we don't know. Keys are hard and take a long time to evacuate so them doing it now is the right thing to do."

"There are lots of projected paths. It's not getting smaller, it's getting bigger and nothing to make it smaller."

 

[Draydey]

Moving trip to next weekend hopefully we're clear

 

[Jimmy Mouse]

I stayed at the Condondo Plaza in San Juan. Beautiful place and beautiful people. Praying for everyone in the path!

 

[Imamom2]

Not arriving til the 20th so no worries for me - everyone there or traveling in the next few day be safe and patient. We are visiting Florida and will come home to our lives - those cast members who are taking care of our every need are residents of Florida who are no doubt worrying about their own homes and families.

 

[Funfire240]

For those asking about travel next week - you really can't say at this point. No one will know until it hits, what strength it hits as and what damage is done. You may be also traveling with many people trying to get back home after the evacuations depending what happens.
I'm not traveling to Disney until November but watching very closely as we have a house and boat in Marathon, FL. I remember evacuating for Rita in Sept. of 2005 from the Keys and traffic was crazy. A normal ride from Marathon up to Port St. Lucie to stay with family took twice as long as normal
I hope everyone just monitors and makes the right decision for you. I know it's hard. I've had vacations pushed back and eventually postponed back in 2004 (thanks to Francis, Jeanne) so I know how hard and disappointing it is but please be smart about things. If you are driving, know that hotels will have few rooms available and gas lines more than likely be long and basics could be hard to find (especially if you hve little ones on formula and in diapers)
Everything there and in the path - take care and stay safe. I wish the best for all CM's who have to be there during this time as well.

 

[Alice Hart]

My company just issued orders for the DR team to deploy to Atlanta on Thursday. Tomorrow people are supposed to get their personal things in order and Thursday morning head north. At the very least we've been told to expect flooding and mass power outages. Good luck everyone.

 

[Hojobones]

We are here now, staying at Animal Kingdom Lodge. No info directly from WDW yet. We are supposed to fly out on this Saturday, 9/9 at 5pm. What happens if we can't fly out? Should we try to leave earlier? If so, we lose a park day on Friday (Animal Kingdom with Pandora fp - our only animal kingdom day). Any advice??

Have seen differing reports as to when it will effect Orlando area with wind/rain etc.

if you can't afford to stay a few more days then leave a day early. We wasted a whole day at the orlando airport when our flight was canceled due to a snowstorm at home. We couldn't get a flight back for another 3 days. Disney was able to accommodate us, but was still another 3 days of hotel costs, and 3 more days of vacation from work. In hindsight we should have flown home the night before, or moved our flight once southwest waived the change fees.

 

[hertamaniac]

Sand bags are being distributed starting tomorrow where I live (just North of Orlando). Max sustained winds are expected to be ~100 mph in Orlando (Sunday/Sunday night/Monday). I am taking pictures tomorrow of my home/property for insurance purposes (with a date/timestamp).

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

The latest GFS model has the eye missing florida and skirting up the east coast. There would be wind and rain at WDW Sunday overnight in this scenario. This is almost the exact same route Matthew took.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ind&runtime=2017090518&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=423

However, this is just one run of the model and as many people have pointed out there is till a lot of room for error. However several of the hurricane experts/meteorologists that I follow have said that while the model runs have a large margin of error this far out, the *trends* in the models are the thing to watch. This is especially relevant as the Hurricane Hunter planes have been sending masses of data that have helped inform the models since yesterday. Both the GFS (American) and EURO (European) have been trending further and further east in their model runs today. Which has resulted in Irma missing Florida in this particular run.

 

[CAS239]

This is a big hurricane. I remember a few pages back someone saying they heard it's relatively small.

News just updated and said the hurricane is currently 140 miles wide (74+mph winds), while tropical storm winds 330 miles wide (39+mph winds)

 

[j2thomason]

I just got off of the phone with Southwest vacations after being on hold for 90 minutes. Since I booked a package they can only give me a travel credit for my unused flights which have to be used by April, and since I am a teacher they will probably go unused. Also, they gave me no guarantee that I would get refunded for my hotel portion of the package. They said that I should hear something in 14-21 days! Now I have to call Disney and see if they can refund my Night of Joy ticket and my MNSSHP ticket. This is NOT magical!

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

The NHS just announced sustained winds of Irma are now over 185 mph and that it's present track suggests it is going to skirt the windwards and Puerto Rico. If that happens, they expect it to continue strengthening. They also said that they don't anticipate knowing until Thursday whether the storm is showing any signs of changing it's current northwest track.

Interestingly, the prime speculative models are now showing two different scenarios: Euro shows it sliding further westward once it reaches the Bahamas and possibly entering the gulf. NHS shows it stalling at the southern tip of Florida before possibly moving north.

Again, these are speculative projections, not definitive tracks.

Actually, the EURO has shown trends towards the east today. The 00z run had it moving closer to the gulf and the 12z run pulled it back slightly more towards the east. The trends really are the thing to watch at the moment because the individual runs have so much margin for error.

 

[hertamaniac]

I did just hear that the latest models are trending that the system has <5% chance of entering the Gulf. The spaghetti model tracks seem to have more runs on the eastern side of the center-line.

 

[abooch]

Is Disney still accepting hotels reservations for this weekend? It says not one room is available on the website.

 

[lovethattink]

This is a big hurricane. I remember a few pages back someone saying they heard it's relatively small.

News just updated and said the hurricane is currently 140 miles wide (74+mph winds), while tropical storm winds 330 miles wide (39+mph winds)

That was me. It's changed since this morning. What was up to 49 miles across of sustained hurricane force winds is now expected to be 150 miles across (larger than the state of Florida). I'm getting very close to panic mode. Seriously thinking of grabbing my son and driving north. But so many reports of no gas, I don't want to add to the problem.

On top if it, I'm getting a new roof tomorrow. Not sure if that's good or bad. Presently there are tarps over a leak.