Is that comparing to DVC room on cash through Disney, if it is, this is not a valid comparison IMO, unless that's the one were vacationing otherwise. IMO the 2 valid benchmarks are renting DVC privately and/or what one would do without owning DVC.
I don't think I've ever looked at DVC room via cash. It's like you say, what I would do without owning. It's like in the
DDP decisions... you don't want to compare to what the food on the DDP would cost, you want to compare to what you would actually spend.
I think
@MrInfinity was comparing a comparable non DVC option that he would book through Disney if he didn't own/rent DVC since the garden wing rooms mentioned are the "cheap" contemporary resort suites/rooms. They are the cheapest monorail room options I've found when looking in the past. I do agree with you though that if one would typically book a value or moderate if they didn't own DVC it is not fair cost comparison.
Exactly. It's my real-world alternative. And true as well, if your alternative is a Value or Mod, then DVC will never break even because your base vacation is comparatively cheap. But you're not getting the same ballpark of vacation accommodations so it's not apples to apples.
Also, there are way too many variables in everybody's DVC equation for anyone to make an accurate general statement on how long YOUR breakeven point will be.
The main detail there that will change vastly from person to person is what they would otherwise do with their money. That, no one can answer but the individual. Some people might even consider a negative savings rate! This could apply to some who, if in posession of money, would tend to spend it on stuff... I know lots of ppl like this, so if that's the case then spending it on something that will secure you vacations is a really good use and the breakeven will be faster in those cases.
I always cringe when I read those estimates. Just some of those variables include cost basis, amount of "free" points, opportunity costs,
It's just math in which you peg the variables you consider relevant and see the results. Some of the things you mention... like cost basis... Don't change the breakeven point much at all. If I change my buy-in from $106pp to $115pp, the breakeven remains 7 years. The driving factor in how cost effective a 2B DVC is vs the hotel suite is that the suite is so expensive. 3rd party sites that can get regular rooms for cheap seem to not be able to get suites for anything but rack rate.
I would not recommend anyone buy a timeshare that would finance it unless you're financing it via a refi. I could add a financing option, but I suspect it would push the breakeven out to never with a 10% loan.
Well, there are no official dues discounts. That said, I paid my dues with money I got via payment method manipulation and other tricks... but, I don't consider my dues discounted, because if I was taking a vacation and paying for it instead, I would have applied those techniques there too.
pulling in points from future years
This is akin to not taking a trip one year. So whether you'd not take a trip one year and rent out the points, or not take a trip one year and therefore not spend on a vacation, you'd have a savings either way. Since my goal is to plan on around 1 vacation per year, that's what I use. But I also have a tweak in it to take a vacation every other year. It then calculates the cost of those vacations, but spreads the consumption of points on the DVC side.
Great point; garbage in, garbage out! Good thing the financial analysis of a DVC contract isn't really that difficult.
True. There are only about 8 or 10 variables total that affect the schedule, but a handful of them have the biggest impact... The most important ones are what your money is worth to you if not spent on DVC, and what your vacations would cost outside of DVC. These two factors are subjective and require honest thought on them to get good results out. One just needs to analyze whatever he/she feels is important -- but that's hard to do w/o putting it on paper. By putting it on paper, I can say what the breakeven point is for any scenario. Tell me what your vacations would cost, what you would pay per point, etc, and I can give you a # of years based on this as well as tell you things like what you'd spend in your lifetime if you did that for 43 years... It's useful.
Good data in, good data out.
I can tweak my DVC Dues Rise (3%) my Vac Costs Rise (3%), Price per Point ($106), etc, and see what effect they have on the breakeven.
So true!
