Covid-19 closer to "home" than I'd anticipated...

[BuckeyeBama]

Great - just saw that our state will no longer release the county name of patient locations going forward, only the region/metro area, citing doctor/patient confidentiality.

I hope your all’s state doesn’t pull this nonsense

I understand what you are saying. I just don't think that we should release names any more at this point unless it will clearly help.

This is everywhere. We should assume that everyone has it if we have a loved on in a vulnerable group.

 

[WEDWDW]

I'm not worrying any more than I do about the flu. For the most part, for normal healthy people, this is no worst than the flu. I am worried far more about the effects of the wide spread panic on the economy than I am the actual virus.

Same here-the amount of "fear" going on would make one think it has a 100 % fatality rate.

 

[Donaldswife]

The "panic" is that you have to pay attention to the epidemiology and potential for a pandemic. You have to look at the case-fatality rate, which is the number of deaths divided by the number of cases (multiplied by 100, to give a percent). Mortality rate is the number of deaths over the total population (once again X 100).
For example, 40 deaths among 4,000 cases is the CFR of 1.0%. If the population was 4 million, that’s a MR of 1 per 100,000 or 0.01%. Here is a list of the case-fatality rates for some more-commonly known viruses/infections:

Seasonal flu: CFR 0.1–0.2%
1918 flu: CFR 2.5%
SARS: CFR 10–11%
MERS: CFR 34%
EBOLA: CFR 25–95%
Rabies: CFR 100%
Thus far, COVID19 appears to be 2–3%, similar to the Spanish flu of 1918, which killed the most people during a single outbreak (pandemic) in history.

The R0 ("R-naught") is also of concern. It is basically the virus's reproductive ability and describes how many people one infected person will infect. Covid-19 seems to have an R0 of between 1.2-4, meaning that 5 infected people will infect somewhere between 6 and 20 people. For comparison, SARS had an R0 of between 2 to 5.

Basically, if COVID19 spreads globally, it could equal or exceed the deaths due to the 1918 influenza, and THAT's what all the hype is about.

(Sources: https://www.popsci.com/story/health/how-diseases-spread/
and https://vitals.lifehacker.com/what-is-the-coronaviruss-r0-and-why-does-it-matter-1841264885)

I'm supposed to be grading lab reports... can you see why I'm called the Queen of Procrastination?

I understand the numbers given here, and I agree that it is worrisome if you believe the 1-2% is correct. BUT, given that most of the cases in young healthy people are mild, I believe that 1-2% is inflated as there are many cases that will never be reported or known because people will treat it as just a minor cold and never see a health professional.

 

[Hikergirl]

The first or one of the first confirmed cases here was in the county my dh works in and many people from here commute to and from for work.
I have been saying since the first case in China was reported that it was going to hit here because of the large Chinese population that dh works with.
Sure enough he got the word today that employees should work from home if they can. They cancelled all meetings, no groups working together, no more self serve food items in the cafeteria and only people who can work alone should come in. Dh is one of those people, he needs to go in to do his work but can go all day without interacting with someone face to face.
He also found out a person in his group is sick, no details as to whether his has symptoms of COVID or just doesn't feel good.
I'm off to the grocery store to stock up in case he does have it and dh, and the rest of us in the house have to self quarantine. Definitely too close to home for me but not really unexpected.

 

[ellbellthomps]

State of emergency in NY is sending everyone into a frenzy.
All the NYC colleges are coming home to do online school, and I imagine someone will bring it with them.
Plus, we have 32 quarantined students from travelling abroad, and a group of 20 locally who are coming back from Israel.

 

[SaintsManiac]

I wish people would stop with the flu comparison. I don't worry about the flu. We get flu shots, take probiotics, keep hands clean and in the event that we catch it we can get Tamiflu. There's a test available that can be accessed easily.

Now I am not particularly worried about catching this virus, but it's the unknown that makes people concerned.

I'm going to have my yearly physical on Monday and plan to ask my doc any questions I have.

 

[Hikergirl]

State of emergency in NY is sending everyone into a frenzy.
All the NYC colleges are coming home to do online school, and I imagine someone will bring it with them.
Plus, we have 32 quarantined students from travelling abroad, and a group of 20 locally who are coming back from Israel.

And yet Cuomo says "People are reacting like this is the Ebola virus. This is not the Ebola virus. This hysteria that you see, this fear that you see, the panic that you see is unwarranted. We have dealt with worse viruses."
Schools districts are closing, businesses are ordering employees to work from home, the State is making it's own hand sanitizer

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Ppl keep saying for “the majority of us it’ll be fine”, but I think that’s still the unknown that has ppl panicking.

If people would actually take the time to educate themselves, there wouldn't be an "unknown" to panic over, but most people won't. They prefer to hoard lysol and germex and wait for the apocalypse.

 

[TLSnell1981]

The first or one of the first confirmed cases here was in the county my dh works in and many people from here commute to and from for work.
I have been saying since the first case in China was reported that it was going to hit here because of the large Chinese population that dh works with.
Sure enough he got the word today that employees should work from home if they can. They cancelled all meetings, no groups working together, no more self serve food items in the cafeteria and only people who can work alone should come in. Dh is one of those people, he needs to go in to do his work but can go all day without interacting with someone face to face.
He also found out a person in his group is sick, no details as to whether his has symptoms of COVID or just doesn't feel good.
I'm off to the grocery store to stock up in case he does have it and dh, and the rest of us in the house have to self quarantine. Definitely too close to home for me but not really unexpected.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

Basically, if COVID19 spreads globally, it could equal or exceed the deaths due to the 1918 influenza, and THAT's what all the hype is about.

This just isn't accurate, and is unnecessarily alarmist. We are seeing the death rate with this dropping as it spreads to more developed countries with better healthcare. Spanish flu did what it did because at the time, low income families had no access to health care, and there was very little if anything that could be done for anyone infected. The numbers on this are just estimates at this point too because we cannot count on the data coming out of China.

 

[LSUmiss]

If people would actually take the time to educate themselves, there wouldn't be an "unknown" to panic over, but most people won't. They prefer to hoard lysol and germex and wait for the apocalypse.

There is always an unknown with a virus especially ons that we really don’t have that much reliable data on yet. Viruses also often mutate.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

There is always an unknown with a virus especially ons that we really don’t have that much reliable data on yet. Viruses also often mutate.

There is always an unknown with everything, but we do actually know a lot about this virus. There are LOTS of other coronaviruses out there. We know about its structure, its mechanism of infection, and have a good idea of how to develop a vaccine. In fact, it is nearly ready for testing. No, we don't have a lot of reliable data on infection rates ect, but those are statistics, nothing more. They are not important to fighting this thing.The science behind how to treat and how to vaccinate for it are and we have a solid foundation in that based on what we know about other coronaviruses and what is rapidly being uncovered about this one.

It's just another respiratory virus that has been overhyped by the media into a needless frenzy. The flu and the common cold mutate at a ridiculous rate. No one freaks out when we need a new flu vaccine every year because it has mutated. We cannot develop a vaccine for rhinovirus (common cold) because it mutates too quickly. So far, it doesn't appear that this one has that kind of mutation rate.

 

[wvjules]

The numbers on this are just estimates at this point too because we cannot count on the data coming out of China.

Nor can we count on the numbers coming out of the US.

 

[DisneyRobin]

My son’s university will be teaching the rest of this year virtually. We were just told this morning that they have to be out of their dorms by Sunday at 5pm. So sad for him.

 

[LSUmiss]

There is always an unknown with everything, but we do actually know a lot about this virus. There are LOTS of other coronaviruses out there. We know about its structure, its mechanism of infection, and have a good idea of how to develop a vaccine. In fact, it is nearly ready for testing. No, we don't have a lot of reliable data on infection rates ect, but those are statistics, nothing more. They are not important to fighting this thing.The science behind how to treat and how to vaccinate for it are and we have a solid foundation in that based on what we know about other coronaviruses and what is rapidly being uncovered about this one.

It's just another respiratory virus that has been overhyped by the media into a needless frenzy. The flu and the common cold mutate at a ridiculous rate. No one freaks out when we need a new flu vaccine every year because it has mutated. We cannot develop a vaccine for rhinovirus (common cold) because it mutates too quickly. So far, it doesn't appear that this one has that kind of mutation rate.

I’m not seeing a media frenzy locally or on any of the platforms where I get my news. All I’m seeing is reporting of cases as the come up, cdc info being reported, etc. Exactly what makes it a frenzy?

 

[tink89]

I’m not seeing a media frenzy locally or on any of the platforms where I get my news. All I’m seeing is reporting of cases as the come up, cdc info being reported, etc. Exactly what makes it a frenzy?

I live in CA. The bay area and the local news is talking about it 24/7. They post any little thing about it on social media and call it #BreakingNews.

 

[LSUmiss]

I live in CA. The bay area and the local news is talking about it 24/7. They post any little thing about it on social media and call it #BreakingNews.

Ok but if they’re just reporting facts how is that they media hyping it? It is what it is.

 

[morgan98]

I understand what you are saying. I just don't think that we should release names any more at this point unless it will clearly help.

This is everywhere. We should assume that everyone has it if we have a loved on in a vulnerable group.

I think part of what is causing the panic is the identifying and calling out of individuals who have the virus where they have been, etc. I understand tracing contacts is helpful, but to be on the news and called out as a leper is different than how we normally do things. That is part of the fear.

NOTE: I posted my story on the ABD forum, but I am working from home for 14 days as my husband got home from Italy last night - good thing I moved his flight to yesterday! However, I have to tell you we are calm. This too shall pass.

 

[eeyoreandtink]

I’m not seeing a media frenzy locally or on any of the platforms where I get my news. All I’m seeing is reporting of cases as the come up, cdc info being reported, etc. Exactly what makes it a frenzy?

CORONAVIRUS CRISIS plastered everywhere as the banner for news stations. Daily reports on the stock of supplies and how shelves are bare. Basic fear mongering tactics. The reaction to that is that schools and businesses start shutting down because they need to look like they are "responding to the crisis".

 

[TLSnell1981]

I think part of what is causing the panic is the identifying and calling out of individuals who have the virus where they have been, etc. I understand tracing contacts is helpful, but to be on the news and called out as a leper is different than how we normally do things. That is part of the fear.

NOTE: I posted my story on the ABD forum, but I am working from home for 14 days as my husband got home from Italy last night - good thing I moved his flight to yesterday! However, I have to tell you we are calm. This too shall pass.