Oh, I agree with this, 100%. But it won't be something nearly as significant as most people think, because it won't have to be. History shows us that incentives that are objectively modest can generate huge interest in a hurry.
As an example, consider FREE DINING! If you actually do the math, it's a pretty ordinary discount, no better than the typical percentage-off deals in most cases. But people
fall all over themselves to book it.
This brings me back to one of my favorites: bonus points. This is something
they've done in the past, and it generated good interest. It's also brilliant. When sales are slow, DVC has a bunch of extra points backing declared inventory laying round. In economic contractions, it's hard to use a bunch of extra points for rental inventory. They are expiring assets, so there's no long-term value there. They were offered instead of discounting the sales price, so Disney is not leaving money on the table.
But, individual buyers get pretty excited. As evidence take a look at any of the "free points!" threads about buying late in the use-year. No one is getting "free" points; those are just the points they are entitled to based on the rules of the program. The only real "sweetener" is that Disney will bank them late in the year when you buy.
It's almost the perfect incentive to offer during an economic contraction, and it works, because individual consumers over-value them compared to their "real" economic value, while Disney does not.
Long term zero-percent financing, on the other hand, bites Disney twice: forgone interest on the loan, and accounting losses due to high inflation for future cash flows. It's a drastic step.
But look at that blue sky!
