VDH Unit and Sales Tracker

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Hello! We just purchased yesterday at VDH for 2-100 point contracts.

100 pt -- 1A -- 0.3775% -- 8/10/24 -- Dec UY
100 pt -- 1A -- 0.3775% -- 8/10/24 -- Dec UY

Welcome home!

 

[sevargas]

Welcome home!

Thank you! We're pretty excited to have a West Coast contract

 

[superlarz]

@ehh thank you for the info as always. Looks like sales are picking up. I wonder what is declared? I would love to help pull data I just have no idea how

 

[ehh]

@ehh thank you for the info as always. Looks like sales are picking up. I wonder what is declared? I would love to help pull data I just have no idea how

The OCRW site sells the documents needed to research this, but it's a very old-school process that I've been procrastinating on: 'order' the documents online, mail a check for payment, then wait for copies of physical documents in the mail.

I even ordered checks for this, because they're not something I need in my life otherwise, just haven't placed the order and mailed it.

 

[superlarz]

The OCRW site sells the documents needed to research this, but it's a very old-school process that I've been procrastinating on: 'order' the documents online, mail a check for payment, then wait for copies of physical documents in the mail.

I even ordered checks for this, because they're not something I need in my life otherwise, just haven't placed the order and mailed it.

Unfortunately I do not have paper checks either

 

[VGCgroupie]

The OCRW site sells the documents needed to research this, but it's a very old-school process that I've been procrastinating on: 'order' the documents online, mail a check for payment, then wait for copies of physical documents in the mail.

I even ordered checks for this, because they're not something I need in my life otherwise, just haven't placed the order and mailed it.

You are our hero. Just the search function is enough stress for me to give up, let alone mailing a check... Id have to get a check AND a stamp

 

[ehh]

Monthly update! And a double dose this time since I skipped a post about August!

Total points recorded as of September 30th: ~777k points (23.9% of all points).
Points recorded in August: ~21.9k points.
Points recorded in September: ~19.4k points.

A weaker end to summer compared to earlier months.

Pricing stayed pretty much the same for months, so maybe looming Poly sales took up some of the attention.

A few months ago I speculated that the end-of-incentive periods drive small bumps in sales for buyers trying to avoid a potential increase. Considering the ~2 week lag in contract recording vs. sales date, will be interesting to see what the early October data shows.

At September's sales rate, VDH will sell out in 128 months, or 10 years and 8 months from now. I thought a 5-6 year runway of remaining sales felt right. This definitely feels too slow.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about August and September's sales:

September set yet another record for highest pts/contract, at 184.8pt/contract. 2nd place was July at 184.1pt/contract and 3rd and 4th place are also in the last 4 months. Current incentives do skew toward 200pt contracts and larger. And, anecdotally, I'm seeing fewer split-contract purchases. Combined, we're in a Big Contract Era.

But not mega contracts. The largest contract across the two months was 'just' 550 points, and 2nd largest was 500.

Surprisingly, there were no clear Favorite Week candidate contracts. All appeared to be 'normal' points levels.

Unit 3A remained the most recorded unit across the two months. 2nd place was Unit 1A. Though looking at Aug and Sep individually, Unit 3B took the crown for September.

Units 3B and 4A also appeared for the first time! I haven't seen an apparent declaration since May, so it's possible May's declaration included both Units 3 and 4 (and maybe more).

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, 2B, and 2C. 2C is new to the list as of September.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in August:

• 122 contracts recorded
  • 42x 150pt contracts (62 the prior month)
  • 42x 200pt contracts (55 the prior month)
  • 13x 100pt contracts (18 the prior month)
  • 7x 250pt contracts (12 the prior month)
  • 7x 300pt contracts (10 the prior month)
  • 4x 50pt contracts (10 the prior month)
  • 7x other contracts (24 the prior month)
• 179.7pt average contract size in August
• 500pt is largest contract in August (2x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3A was assigned the most (9.4k, 2nd most was 1A at 5.6k)

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in September:

• 105 contracts recorded
  • 33x 200pt contracts (42 the prior month)
  • 31x 150pt contracts (42 the prior month)
  • 13x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 8x 100pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 6x 50pt contracts (4 the prior month)
  • 5x 300pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 9x other contracts (7 the prior month)
• 184.8pt average contract size in August
• 550pt is largest contract in August (2x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3B was assigned the most (7.7k, 2nd most was 1A at 5.4k)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

Points recorded by month:

 

[VGCgroupie]

Monthly update! And a double dose this time since I skipped a post about August!

Total points recorded as of September 30th: ~777k points (23.9% of all points).
Points recorded in August: ~21.9k points.
Points recorded in September: ~19.4k points.

A weaker end to summer compared to earlier months.

Pricing stayed pretty much the same for months, so maybe looming Poly sales took up some of the attention.

A few months ago I speculated that the end-of-incentive periods drive small bumps in sales for buyers trying to avoid a potential increase. Considering the ~2 week lag in contract recording vs. sales date, will be interesting to see what the early October data shows.

At September's sales rate, VDH will sell out in 128 months, or 10 years and 8 months from now. I thought a 5-6 year runway of remaining sales felt right. This definitely feels too slow.

As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.

Fun facts about August and September's sales:

September set yet another record for highest pts/contract, at 184.8pt/contract. 2nd place was July at 184.1pt/contract and 3rd and 4th place are also in the last 4 months. Current incentives do skew toward 200pt contracts and larger. And, anecdotally, I'm seeing fewer split-contract purchases. Combined, we're in a Big Contract Era.

But not mega contracts. The largest contract across the two months was 'just' 550 points, and 2nd largest was 500.

Surprisingly, there were no clear Favorite Week candidate contracts. All appeared to be 'normal' points levels.

Unit 3A remained the most recorded unit across the two months. 2nd place was Unit 1A. Though looking at Aug and Sep individually, Unit 3B took the crown for September.

Units 3B and 4A also appeared for the first time! I haven't seen an apparent declaration since May, so it's possible May's declaration included both Units 3 and 4 (and maybe more).

It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, 2A, 2B, and 2C. 2C is new to the list as of September.

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in August:

• 122 contracts recorded
  • 42x 150pt contracts (62 the prior month)
  • 42x 200pt contracts (55 the prior month)
  • 13x 100pt contracts (18 the prior month)
  • 7x 250pt contracts (12 the prior month)
  • 7x 300pt contracts (10 the prior month)
  • 4x 50pt contracts (10 the prior month)
  • 7x other contracts (24 the prior month)
• 179.7pt average contract size in August
• 500pt is largest contract in August (2x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3A was assigned the most (9.4k, 2nd most was 1A at 5.6k)

Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in September:

• 105 contracts recorded
  • 33x 200pt contracts (42 the prior month)
  • 31x 150pt contracts (42 the prior month)
  • 13x 250pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 8x 100pt contracts (13 the prior month)
  • 6x 50pt contracts (4 the prior month)
  • 5x 300pt contracts (7 the prior month)
  • 9x other contracts (7 the prior month)
• 184.8pt average contract size in August
• 550pt is largest contract in August (2x)
• 50pt is smallest contract
• 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
• Unit 3B was assigned the most (7.7k, 2nd most was 1A at 5.4k)

Points recorded by date:

"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.

Points recorded by month:

Amazing info as always. I bought around 60 days ago but since I did a delayed payment mine won’t close until after 10/31. Interested to see if there’s a fair amount of people who did what I did and we will see a bigger bump since incentives last quarter were pretty decent especially with the extra 1k Visa incentive.

 

[ehh]

Amazing info as always. I bought around 60 days ago but since I did a delayed payment mine won’t close until after 10/31. Interested to see if there’s a fair amount of people who did what I did and we will see a bigger bump since incentives last quarter were pretty decent especially with the extra 1k Visa incentive.

I think we're at a pretty good equilibrium of delayed closings starting/closing at this point, so even if a bunch of others did what you did, I'm not sure it'd show as much of a spike.

How long it took $230/pt contracts to flush through the system is probably a good indicator of how many delayed closings there are. First $239/pt contacts showed up in late Feb and last $230/pt contracts showed up in May. March was a pretty even mix!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

It’s hard to imagine that they have a new DVC property ready at DLR in less than 5 years, but I would expect one to launch within 10 years, I think. I’ve started seeing more targeted advertisements for DLR hotel discounts, so maybe we’ll get some holiday incentives (or a Black Friday sale?) or perhaps they won’t do much until next year and will let PVB have its quarter in the sun?

 

[superlarz]

It’s hard to imagine that they have a new DVC property ready at DLR in less than 5 years, but I would expect one to launch within 10 years, I think. I’ve started seeing more targeted advertisements for DLR hotel discounts, so maybe we’ll get some holiday incentives (or a Black Friday sale?) or perhaps they won’t do much until next year and will let PVB have its quarter in the sun?

My thoughts are in line with this. I think they want to have a west coast resort on sale so they arent going all out with sales. Depending on how quickly the new parking structure gets build and they start to redevelop Toy Story lot, i think minimally 7 to 10 years from getting the ball rolling on the next West Coast resort at best. I think they will push VDH a lot more and project to sell out some time around that point

 

[AstroBlasters]

Looking at the ticket price increase again today…. you know what would increase VDH direct sales… a DVC Magic Key!

C’mon Disney Execs!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Looking at the ticket price increase again today…. you know what would increase VDH direct sales… a DVC Magic Key!

C’mon Disney Execs!

100%

 

[Canchaser143]

Looking at the ticket price increase again today…. you know what would increase VDH direct sales… a DVC Magic Key!

C’mon Disney Execs!

FOR REAL THO

 

[VGCgroupie]

They just released $1500 incentive for VDH for magic key holders. No Disney that’s backwards we want it the other way around.

 

[AstroBlasters]

They just released $1500 incentive for VDH for magic key holders. No Disney that’s backwards we want it the other way around.

Link?

 

[VGCgroupie]

Link?

It was in the app under magic key special offers.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

View attachment 901983
It was in the app under magic key special offers.

I just spent 5m poking around the app and the website and can’t find any specifics of the details beyond what’s in that screenshot in the app.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I just spent 5m poking around the app and the website and can’t find any specifics of the details beyond what’s in that screenshot in the app.

I just got to my computer and tried to locate on the website but I couldn't find it either.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Link?

Found it https://dvcexplorer.com/fin/m/VillasatDisneyland_Member_Magickey.pdf