superlarz
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Aug 28, 2013
I stayed in a 1br last week and can say that i wholeheartedly agree
VDH Unit and Sales Tracker
- Thread starter ehh
- Start date
AstroBlasters
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2022
Did you use the dishwasher?
superlarz
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Aug 28, 2013
I did not personally load or start the dishwasher but members of my party did use it
noisycricket
fan for the fam
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2011
We used the dishwasher during our stay. Totally fine-- better than the really old one that seemed on its last legs at VGC.
NorCalFanatic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2023
We used the dishwasher 3X on our April trip with no issues other than asking them to bring up more detergent for it as there was only one pod when we checked into the room (they really need more plates/flatware in the rooms, we wouldn’t run it as much)
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Working on the April and 'First year' updates today, been traveling and dealing with real life stuff.
I do want to highlight that it appears DVD declared more inventory on May 9, 2024. I have no idea what they declared without purchasing a paper copy of the documents (which cannot be paid for online), and I'm not sure I'm going to purchase a copy.
One thing that would sway me is if I have a decent way to upload it so everyone can read it. If I were to scan it, does DISBoards allow for a 17pg PDF upload? Or is there a better place to upload it?
I do want to highlight that it appears DVD declared more inventory on May 9, 2024. I have no idea what they declared without purchasing a paper copy of the documents (which cannot be paid for online), and I'm not sure I'm going to purchase a copy.
One thing that would sway me is if I have a decent way to upload it so everyone can read it. If I were to scan it, does DISBoards allow for a 17pg PDF upload? Or is there a better place to upload it?
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Monthly update!
Total points recorded as of April 30th: ~658k points (20.2% of all points).
Points recorded in April: ~20.0k points.
Just under 20k points recorded in April, 19,988 by my estimates. An improvement over March (16.2k) but still the 3rd lowest month ever for VDH.
Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in April, with 31 of the 120 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 130 months, or 10.8 years from now...that's early/mid-2035!
The April 1 price/incentive updates are our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts (at least not yet).
As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~20.2% of the resort has been sold. That leaves about 2% of headroom, roughly 70k points, before more Units must be declared. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9, though I don't have the declaration details at this time.
Something I noted last three months but continues to be a thorn to sales monitoring is a change OCRW made. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH (which have different lot numbers). Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.
In fact, while I haven't been tracking VGC sales I think there's actually been an uptick in the sales rate (or at least I feel like I'm deleting more spreadsheet rows as being more-likely-VGC-than-not).
DVD also increased the base price for VDH, which also has an impact to sales monitoring. Without getting too inside baseball, OCRW doesn't post how many points are sold, just the Transfer Tax paid. Transfer Tax is proportional to the pre-incentive price of the contract. So a 150pt contract at a $230/pt base price would show up as $37.95 of Transfer Tax, but at the new $239/pt base price it shows up as $39.60. But $39.60 was also a valid tax amount before for a 155pt or 156pt contract, so discerning whether a contract is on the new pricing or old pricing is a bit of a judgement call currently.
I estimate 89 of the 120 contracts recorded this month were at the higher $239/pt. I'm a bit surprised that 31 of 120 had such a delayed closing that they qualified for the older pricing--the price changed Feb 1!
I'll do my best to take educated guesses on the contract size, but there have definitely been some challenges.
As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about April's sales:
April was kind of boring in terms of interesting contracts, with only a 222pt contract likely being a fixed week for a SV Deluxe Studio in W51-52 and the largest contract(s) were 'just' three 500pt contracts.
Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 70% of this month's points. I think all declared Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts (there might be a small Unit 2D). Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 1I (one eye) came in 2nd this month. There were a few more of early-Unit contracts (1B, 1E) recorded this month, as well.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, and 2A. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.
Also of note: I've reclassified last month's 209pt 'Unit 3A' contract as a 160pt VGC contract. I'm not updating prior posts with this change.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in April:
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
Total points recorded as of April 30th: ~658k points (20.2% of all points).
Points recorded in April: ~20.0k points.
Just under 20k points recorded in April, 19,988 by my estimates. An improvement over March (16.2k) but still the 3rd lowest month ever for VDH.
Despite prices going up to $239/pt on Feb 1, still seeing a trickle of $230/pt contracts being recorded in April, with 31 of the 120 deeds being more likely to be $230 rather than $239, based on the recording tax paid.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 130 months, or 10.8 years from now...that's early/mid-2035!
The April 1 price/incentive updates are our first indications that maybe DVD wants to pick up the pace a bit as 200+ point contracts are now available below pre-sales pricing, as long as you qualify for the Welcome Home incentive, but there wasn't a statistically-confident uptick in larger contracts (at least not yet).
As of April 30th, ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~20.2% of the resort has been sold. That leaves about 2% of headroom, roughly 70k points, before more Units must be declared. It appears that DVD took the plunge on May 9, though I don't have the declaration details at this time.
Something I noted last three months but continues to be a thorn to sales monitoring is a change OCRW made. Previously, OCRW would publish the Lot Number, the Transfer Tax Amount, and the Unit #. Now they just post Transfer Tax and Unit #, making it harder to differentiate VGC sales from VDH (which have different lot numbers). Yes, DVC has been selling a trickle of VGC this entire time.
In fact, while I haven't been tracking VGC sales I think there's actually been an uptick in the sales rate (or at least I feel like I'm deleting more spreadsheet rows as being more-likely-VGC-than-not).
DVD also increased the base price for VDH, which also has an impact to sales monitoring. Without getting too inside baseball, OCRW doesn't post how many points are sold, just the Transfer Tax paid. Transfer Tax is proportional to the pre-incentive price of the contract. So a 150pt contract at a $230/pt base price would show up as $37.95 of Transfer Tax, but at the new $239/pt base price it shows up as $39.60. But $39.60 was also a valid tax amount before for a 155pt or 156pt contract, so discerning whether a contract is on the new pricing or old pricing is a bit of a judgement call currently.
I estimate 89 of the 120 contracts recorded this month were at the higher $239/pt. I'm a bit surprised that 31 of 120 had such a delayed closing that they qualified for the older pricing--the price changed Feb 1!
I'll do my best to take educated guesses on the contract size, but there have definitely been some challenges.
I figure most people won't care about this so gonna bury this into a spoiler, but some contracts recorded this month were fairly interesting from my perspective.
Feb Contract 1 - $48.40 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 190pt or 191pt and for $239 it works out to 183pt or 184pt. I went with 184pt as it has the most Favorite Week matches, but 191pt also has a bunch of matches (arguably more worthwhile matches, too).
Feb Contract 2 - $110.00 Transfer Tax
Also never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 433pt or 434pt and for $239/pt it works out to 417pt or 418pt. I went with 433pt, which is a match for a W51/52 1BR, but 417pt would have been a match for W18 2BR.
March Contract 1 - $112.20 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 442pt or 443pt and for $239 it works out to 426pt or 425pt. None of these appear to be matches for Favorite Weeks. I went with 425pt as it is the most round number and aligns with the current pricing.
Multiple contracts - $39.60 Transfer Tax
Unlike the above 2, I have seen this before. It works out to 155pt or 156pt in $230/pt pricing (I've been assuming 155pt). But it's also 150pt in $239/pt pricing, which is the most common contract size. I'm going to assume all $39.60 are 150pt on $239/pt pricing until the next price increase.
(let me know if you found me showing my math/process interesting)
Feb Contract 1 - $48.40 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 190pt or 191pt and for $239 it works out to 183pt or 184pt. I went with 184pt as it has the most Favorite Week matches, but 191pt also has a bunch of matches (arguably more worthwhile matches, too).
Feb Contract 2 - $110.00 Transfer Tax
Also never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 433pt or 434pt and for $239/pt it works out to 417pt or 418pt. I went with 433pt, which is a match for a W51/52 1BR, but 417pt would have been a match for W18 2BR.
March Contract 1 - $112.20 Transfer Tax
Never seen this amount before. For $230/pt it works out to 442pt or 443pt and for $239 it works out to 426pt or 425pt. None of these appear to be matches for Favorite Weeks. I went with 425pt as it is the most round number and aligns with the current pricing.
Multiple contracts - $39.60 Transfer Tax
Unlike the above 2, I have seen this before. It works out to 155pt or 156pt in $230/pt pricing (I've been assuming 155pt). But it's also 150pt in $239/pt pricing, which is the most common contract size. I'm going to assume all $39.60 are 150pt on $239/pt pricing until the next price increase.
(let me know if you found me showing my math/process interesting)
As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about April's sales:
April was kind of boring in terms of interesting contracts, with only a 222pt contract likely being a fixed week for a SV Deluxe Studio in W51-52 and the largest contract(s) were 'just' three 500pt contracts.
Unit 2C was the top seller again, with over 70% of this month's points. I think all declared Units, except 1A, have now appeared in recorded contracts (there might be a small Unit 2D). Unit 2B sales fell off to third place while 1I (one eye) came in 2nd this month. There were a few more of early-Unit contracts (1B, 1E) recorded this month, as well.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, 1J, and 2A. We still haven't seen 1A show up in any recorded deeds yet.
Also of note: I've reclassified last month's 209pt 'Unit 3A' contract as a 160pt VGC contract. I'm not updating prior posts with this change.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in April:
- 120 contracts recorded
- 41x 150pt contracts (42 the prior month)
- 21x 200pt contracts (14 the prior month)
- 16x 50pt contracts (13 the prior month)
- 12x 100pt contracts (10 the prior month)
- 9x 300pt contracts (2 the prior month)
- 6x 250pt contracts (14 the prior month)
- 15x other contracts (22 the prior month)
- 166.6pt average contract size in April
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- August had an average of 152.7pt
- September had an average of 149.8pt
- October had an average of 165.1pt
- November had an average of 164.8pt
- December had an average of 154.7pt
- January 2024 had an average of 162.6pt
- February 2024 had an average of 167.2pt, highest ever
- March 2024 had an average of 153.1pt
- 500pt is largest contract in April (3x)
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 500pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (3x)
- Unit 2C was assigned the most (14.2k, 2nd most was 1I at 2,350)
"U" unit stands for "Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
Points recorded by month:
NorCalFanatic
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Apr 19, 2023
Appreciate you continuing to do this. It’s very interesting to read!
noisycricket
fan for the fam
- Joined
- Jul 10, 2011
This is amazing info, especially with the challenges of categorizing the different sales. Thanks for all this!
When you mention VGC sales, I assume you mean direct sales? If yes, I wonder how the buyers were able to get a hold of them. Is DVC clearing out the (many) years long wait list?
AstroBlasters
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2022
Luck of the draw based on your guide activity looking for them.
ehh
I'm not all there myself
- Joined
- Aug 3, 2019
Yep, direct VGC sales!
Tracking resale on the OCRW site is borderline impossible due to the mediocre search/filtering functionality.
A brief year in review:
- Contracts started showing up in OCRW on May 15, 2023
- Through May 14, 2024 (a year), there have been approximately 666.3k points recorded in OCRW
- This is ~20.5% of the total resort
- Actual 'first year' sales are a bit higher due to delayed closings
- 727k points, a little over 22% of the resort, had been declared in the first two declarations (#1 prior to sales and #2 in very early sales)
- A third declaration just appeared prior to the 1yr anniversary, on May 9, 2024. I don't know (yet?) how much has been declared
- Initial sales were extremely hot:
- The peak 4-week rate was ~178k per 4 weeks. At that rate, VDH would have sold out in 1.4 years, or just a few months from now
- One of those 4 weeks had just 7k points recorded...if just the peak week rate had been sustained VDH would have sold out a month ago
- VDH had 12 individual days where more points were recorded than CFW's first full month
- IIRC, during an earnings call Iger or the CFO shared that VDH set an initial sales record
- The peak 4-week rate was ~178k per 4 weeks. At that rate, VDH would have sold out in 1.4 years, or just a few months from now
- The current sales rate is much lower, on track to sell out in more like 10 years
- (as an aside, so far May 2024 is not helping that...)
- Almost all Units in Units 1x and 2x are in the 'sell out' range, except 1A, 1I (one eye), and 2C
- There's a lot of delayed closings! Even with the base price increase on Feb 1, ~25% of the contracts recorded in April appeared to be sold using the pre-increase base price
- If I'm interpreting OCRW correctly, about 50-60% of contracts have been financed through Disney
- The non-accessible Grand Villa still isn't bookable with points, due to limited declarations
- 150pts has been the most popular contract size, by far, with 1460 deeds recorded, or about 33% of all deeds
- 50pts has been the 2nd most popular, with 695 deeds (15.5% of deeds)
- 1,500pts is the largest deed sold so far, and there have been 2 of them!
- And this is despite the Grand Villas being ineligible for any Favorite Weeks due to only 2 being built
- Favorite Weeks are selling, I see what appear to be a few each month (though I cannot confirm...)
- This has been a fun journey, I'm going to continue with monthly and ad hoc reporting, thanks for reading!
AstroBlasters
DIS Veteran
- Joined
- Oct 23, 2022
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