VDH Opening

I am not sure why everyone thinks this is so awful. It is not cheap, but it does appear to be a non-trivial discount over booking the Disneyland hotel for cash--even with the higher base price, and even with the TOT. I won't be buying it, because I don't think there's any particular reason to stay in a Disney-owned hotel at Disneyland. But, Disneyland's DVC offering is a niche within a niche---it is for the folks for whom only Disney will do, no matter what. There are enough of those folks West of the Mississippi with plenty of discretionary income for this to do just fine.

The other observation I would make: Unlike in Florida, Disney can't just keep stamping these things out every two or three years. They have very limited space in Anaheim. I think they would much rather sell a little more slowly at a higher margin than to sell fast and leave money on the table.
 
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AstroBlasters said:
To be fair, the governor of Florida is verbally making statements about increasing the taxes on WDW and putting tolls on the roads…. So that may increase the cost structure of all DVC owners at FL resorts.
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He would have to repeal the law and tax every timeshare in the state - now by design the owners are usually not voters so he may not care.
 
Brian Noble said:
I am not sure why everyone thinks this is so awful. It is not cheap, but it does appear to be a non-trivial discount over booking the Disneyland hotel for cash. I won't be buying it, because I don't think there's any particular reason to stay in a Disney-owned hotel at Disneyland. But, Disneyland's DVC offering is a niche within a niche---it is for the folks for whom only Disney will do, no matter what. There are enough of those folks West of the Mississippi with plenty of discretionary income for this to do just fine.

The other observation I would make: Unlike in Florida, Disney can't just keep stamping these things out every two or three years. They have very limited space in Anaheim. I think they would much rather sell a little more slowly at a higher margin than to sell fast and leave money on the table.
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I am not with you here. A 20ish percent discount is not worth all of the downsides of DVC, nor does it make DLH competitive with many of the ever-increasingly-higher-quality offsite options at a park without meaningful bubble perks. It’s DLH for the price of PPH in a world where Park Vue Inn is pretty solid and the brand new Home2Suites is downright nice.

And if Disney exercises their right to build thousands more hotel rooms at some point, which given their recent push to expand seems reasonable to assume, the added capacity will lead to some level of softening of the rates at DLH, and the comparison will be even worse.

Finally, it seems pretty apparent to me that I’ll be able to pick this up on the resale market cheap someday. Resale buyers educate themselves. This will not be a VGC tiny hotel high price situation.

Awful isn’t the word. Disappointing is. IMHO it’s a higher bar for a resort to pencil out at Disneyland (especially the Disneyland Hotel which is just a regular hotel with a nice pool), and this ain’t doing it for me.
 
Brian Noble said:
The other observation I would make: Unlike in Florida, Disney can't just keep stamping these things out every two or three years. They have very limited space in Anaheim. I think they would much rather sell a little more slowly at a higher margin than to sell fast and leave money on the table.
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This. A thousand times this.

The prevailing wisdom often seems to be that DVC sales are either "good" or "bad" depending upon how many units are sold. That logic completely ignores profitability of each unit--an issue which takes on much greater importance at Disneyland where property is a premium.

We aren't talking about iPhones or Xboxes where high demand means you simply fire-up the assembly lines and churn out more. These are the first timeshare villas added to Disneyland property in nearly 15 years with no clear path for adding more. The goal is to earn as much as possible for every unit.

If VDH sells out in 6 months or 12 months or 18 months, Disney did it wrong. That sales pace means they left money on the table by pricing the product too low. In my opinion they should be targeting at least 3-4 years, raising prices as necessary to rein-in demand.
 
Brian Noble said:
I am not sure why everyone thinks this is so awful. It is not cheap, but it does appear to be a non-trivial discount over booking the Disneyland hotel for cash. I won't be buying it, because I don't think there's any particular reason to stay in a Disney-owned hotel at Disneyland. But, Disneyland's DVC offering is a niche within a niche---it is for the folks for whom only Disney will do, no matter what. There are enough of those folks West of the Mississippi with plenty of discretionary income for this to do just fine.

The other observation I would make: Unlike in Florida, Disney can't just keep stamping these things out every two or three years. They have very limited space in Anaheim. I think they would much rather sell a little more slowly at a higher margin than to sell fast and leave money on the table.
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This is the conclusion I came to as well. I started a post doing some math, sure that given all the add-ons, I would have no idea how one would justify a purchase here as it wouldn't be a sufficient savings.

Let's do middle of the road math...mid-seasons at VDH in a 1-bedroom (292 points for a week per the VDH chart):

Cost per point (direct pricing, no incentives - 4.60/pt) - $1,343.20 (no "time value of money" considered)
Annual dues - $2,642.60
Transient Occupancy Tax - $798.25 (based on the chart posted)
Parking - $245 (caveat - we don't know if/how much parking will be)

Total Cost: $5,029.05 for a week in a 1-bedroom

I know the above numbers could be massaged either way, but I think this is a good middle of the road yard-stick (and I admit that Studios seem to offer less value). This is a savings of over 50% compared to current on-site pricing for VDH (I priced Nov 4-11 which is in the same season as above at $9166 plus taxes and parking, which should put it at about $10,969).

DESPITE all that...it didn't convince me we need to buy points, it rather just solidified that the cost of staying IN the Disney bubble has just gotten too high to justify (at least as regards Disneyland). I also did the math using SSR as sleep around points (which I don't own...but many have SSR points still able to trade into VDH), which brings the Total Cost down a bit, but still feels too high to justify. We will use our resale WDW resort points where we get the best value and "slum" it off-site at Disneyland unless we can luck into 7-month availability at VGC. Sadly, I think the high TOT and potential parking fees will sway MORE people to trying to get VGC internally rather than VDH and I think 7-month availability there will get even tighter.
 
Epcot Forever Forever said:
A 20ish percent discount is not worth all of the downsides of DVC
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For the one week I spot-checked, it was more like 35%. As with any DVC resort, the actual discount off of prevailing rates is going to vary, but more than 1/3 is enough to make the case.

Epcot Forever Forever said:
if Disney exercises their right to build thousands more hotel rooms at some point, which given their recent push to expand seems reasonable to assume, the added capacity will lead to some level of softening of the rates at DLH
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Maybe. The blue-sky stuff we've seen so far also includes an expansion of the parks, which means more people, which means more demand for hotel rooms, which means rates don't necessarily go down. Plus, I've stayed over by the Toy Story lot. That location is not the same. At all.

Again: I am not buying. But I also don't think the valuations are out of line.
 
tjkraz said:
If VDH sells out in 6 months or 12 months or 18 months, Disney did it wrong. That sales pace means they left money on the table by pricing the product too low. In my opinion they should be targeting at least 3-4 years, raising prices as necessary to rein-in demand.
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I completely agree with this. The only thing for me personally is I'd much rather own at VGC based on the price point they set for VDH. I have no doubts that eventually VDH will sell out, but also as someone with direct points I'm starting to wonder if it'll even be necessary to own there because of how many studios they have if it's going to take them awhile to sell the resort out, we may actually have decent availability at 7 months as a result.
 
Nursemanit said:
Wyndham Hilton and Marriott are all RTU now
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No, they are most certainly not. Hilton and Marriott have only deeded in perpetuity products in Florida. Wyndham has some RTU plans, but they are backed by the original resorts being deeded in perpetuity property.
 
I get $625 a night for 2024 Christmas week garden studio vs $1165 cash rate with the tax.


So there is a savings - but TVM would make it not worth it.
 
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Enjoying the thread. Bit of a back and forth for us. We were buying. Then we weren't buying. Now we might buy but with fewer points. Etc. etc. etc. Yes, the starting point feels disappointing and I do agree/understand all the counter arguments.

Want to throw an outlier for thought. Wasn't this the same feeling for VGC when it first opened and for the first 5 or so years? Just wondering if the math today doesn't add up but the math tomorrow (pick your year) makes better sense. Disney has looked at this for the life of the product including what happens after 49 years. Today is merely a starting point. I wonder in 10-15 years time if we'll be "gosh should've bought in to that property when...".

And the target audience is likely new and upcoming families who aren't as well researched as the folks on this board. And these new future families are likely in grade school at the moment. I'd like to think the folks on our boards are at the far right of the bell curve on all things DVC (info and perhaps age).

Don't get me wrong, my head is in the today and now space but I remember passing up on direct VGC years ago having this feeling I'm having today.

Sigh.....
 
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My original plan was to wait until the point charts were live and decide... I was thinking 75 points originally... Seeing the charts, understanding the costs, when I would travel to DL (every 2 or 3 years honestly) and I'm looking at 50-60 point contract if I pull the trigger... Still debating but might wait a bit until DVC threatens to increase the $230 price point.

The ToT is scaring me away since it's an added expense over $300 park tickets per person, plus flights, plus food, etc. It makes it very hard to justify.
 
I wonder how this will affect the rental market. As a post 2019 resaler, my only option to stay here is to rent points. Which I was extremely interested in doing as I’m planning a DL/AUL trip in the future. But now with this transient tax -I don't even want to rent here and get slapped with such a large bill on check in. I will either rent VGC or stay offsite. If it was a more reasonable ToT such as AUL, I would swallow it. But this rate seems nuts.
 
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