Trusting Crowd Levels?

[wareagle57]

We have a one day trip on March 2, which is a Saturday. Undercover Tourist and Touring Plans both have it as a 6. My understanding is that EP is not really needed for that crowd level. But being the Saturday before Mardi Gras and TP updating the Disney crowd levels so high for the same time has me worried.

Should I trust the 6 and look at wait times on similar day to see what wait times will be like? I'm worried it's going to be more like a 9 being Mardi Gras weekend, in which case I definitely would want us to get them. It will be a big group of first timers and not something I want to try to talk them into the day of. If it is a 6, I think UT recommends that Express is not needed.

Also, I've heard rumors that Universal will allow you to buy after 4pm Express in the parks, but they don't advertise it. Is this true? And if so, how much is it? Might be the best plan of action. See how the day is going, and if we need it, buy the After 4 pass to get through what we have left. Though I guess by after 4, it might not be very useful if the crowds have gone down. But I would assume with a concert and night time parade and the lake show it will be pretty crowded.

 

[kim31kim]

I think a lot of people recommend waiting until the day of to see if you need the passes.

 

[macraven]

Saturdays tend to be popular
Probably they have the largest crowds of the week

 

[schumigirl]

I would wait to be honest, but be prepared to buy them.

I can`t remember exact numbers but we were there last year for 10 nights during Mardi Gras and we were so glad we had EP for the rides...….it did make a difference, even midweek.

 

[AntimonyER]

Monday and Tuesday before thanksgiving this year, Touring Plans listed the parks as a 4-5. They ended up being 9-10. We waited an hour in line for Hulk, WITH EP, and the line just to get into the lockers at Gringotts was 20 minutes, never mind the ride. But since you don't need to decide until day of, perhaps just discuss it with the group, and explain the option is there if they lines are too long for everyone's liking. But my faith in crowd trackers (well, with touring plans at least) took a big hit with that whiff of a prediction.

 

[PrincessWithABlaster]

Monday and Tuesday before thanksgiving this year, Touring Plans listed the parks as a 4-5. They ended up being 9-10. We waited an hour in line for Hulk, WITH EP, and the line just to get into the lockers at Gringotts was 20 minutes, never mind the ride. But since you don't need to decide until day of, perhaps just discuss it with the group, and explain the option is there if they lines are too long for everyone's liking. But my faith in crowd trackers (well, with touring plans at least) took a big hit with that whiff of a prediction.

We were there the same days! In fairness they were not that high the year before.

And unfortunately those whiffs in Fall are causing them to whiff now. I've been watching the last week and they are generally way off with MK and EP (not as bad with HS). They are predicting 9s with actuals of 4 or 5. The update that bumped everything higher was based on Fall being higher then expected which at least initially here isn't holding true. Either it's just a new seasonal variation or there is still a bug in their model.

Good news for people who saw their park days go way up but not good news for TP. Adjusting extremely high and then backing down a month or two later is not good for their credibility.

 

[DisLiss]

I'm wondering the same thing about our August weekend trip. We'll be there the weekend BEFORE Labor Day weekend, which I expect to be less busy that Labor Day weekend for sure, but still busy. I'm seeing levels of 6 predicted, but I feel like we should be ready to buy them in case. We're also going to have one day that may be more of a half day due to our arrival time, so I too am wondering if there is a discount EP if you arrive late in the day. Any discount is always nice!