Thoughts on why crowds are lower this summer so far??

On the topic of epic, I know there are some UK visitors for whom Florida is an every few years, stay a bit longer (18nts +) type holiday. I think people who might have gone this year are holding off in the hopes of doing Epic next year. That said, I don’t know how much us UK folks actually affect crowd levels 🤣
 
Well wait times have shot up today! Maybe it’s not going to be a quieter summer after all!?
Many schools up here in the northeast had their last day of classes last week. A few are still finishing up, or have final exams and graduations later this month. I would expect attendance to continue to swell over the next couple of weeks as people from this part of the country make their celebratory "end of the year" or "graduation" trips to Disney World.

That said, I do think economic factors (WDW is expensive, people are dealing with higher costs for necessities, housing costs are sky-high, and people are already worrying about the economic fallout of the 2024 election) will play a role in WDW crowds this summer, although casual visitors might not notice the difference in the queues, since Disney will respond to that by cutting staffing and capacity at attractions.
 
I just looked at the Touring Plan site. It does indeed say MK was a 1 on Memorial Day. The thing is, they use ride wait times to determine crowd numbers. If the rides they’re observing happen to be offline during the hours they use in the calculations, that will affect the final crowd number. I often think it feels more crowded than their numbers. But also, their numbers have changed over the years. A 5 from 10 years ago might be a 3 in today’s numbers for example ( I made up that equivalency, but I know they have adjusted the numbers over the years).
You're right. FWIW, we were at Universal for 4 days leading up to and including Memorial Day this year, and although we could visibly see that the parks were significantly more crowded and congested on Memorial Day than they had been the 3 prior days, anyone measuring the crowds by wait times alone would NOT have noted any difference (nor did Touring Plans, whose historical crowd calendar correctly shows "crowds" - measured by wait times - as being the same or less on Memorial Day as the days leading up to it), since the attractions we saw were all running at full capacity and fully staffed on Memorial Day, whereas they hadn't been on the previous days.
 
Last edited:
I just looked at WDW Passport for the first time. I don’t know about June since I'm not there, but I was at MK on May 27, 28, 29 and Epcot on May 27 and 28.

Screenshot_20240617_165012_Chrome.jpg

May 27th was the day I saw Figment and Living with the Land with wait times at 50 minutes. If Epcot was an 8 on that day, then MK was also an 8 or 7 in my opinion.

Sorry if I keep disputing about crowd size. I also love hearing about low crowds, but only if it's factual.
 
I just looked at WDW Passport for the first time. I don’t know about June since I'm not there, but I was at MK on May 27, 28, 29 and Epcot on May 27 and 28.

View attachment 869108

May 27th was the day I saw Figment and Living with the Land with wait times at 50 minutes. If Epcot was an 8 on that day, then MK was also an 8 or 7 in my opinion.

Sorry if I keep disputing about crowd size. I also love hearing about low crowds, but only if it's factual.
If you put in May 27 on Thrill Data for Magic Kingdom, which tracks wait times every hour of the day, you can definitely see that wait times were about on par with a crowd level of 3. Compare that with Epcot and wait times were higher on average than MK on that specific day.
 
If you put in May 27 on Thrill Data for Magic Kingdom, which tracks wait times every hour of the day, you can definitely see that wait times were about on par with a crowd level of 3. Compare that with Epcot and wait times were higher on average than MK on that specific day.
Until Disney releases the actual number of guests that went through their gates, I'm just going to follow my perception.
 
What Thrill Data reports on has nothing to do with attendance but rather wait times and LL availability but okay.
 Got it! I was fixating on the crowd size since one of the posts mentioned that people were not going to WDW during Memorial Weekend. I know crowd size is subjective, but when you had to sit on the floor while waiting to enter Awesome Planet.....
 
I was in Disney May 28th thru June 1st, and it seems all the guests flocked to MK Tuesday thru Thursday, and the weekends seem empty. I know some of the lower tier annual passes do not include weekends so that may play a factor.

Anyway, I was personally in MK on May 30th and the wait times seemed average to me, but the walking paths were empty. U could throw a stone by Pirates and not hit anyone. Maybe everyone was in line. I did Epcot Friday May 31st and the wait times were high for the popular attractions but there are not many rides. The countries were a lot less crowded then my last November 22 visit which was during the Food and Wine Festival. Lastly, I was in HS June 1st, and there all always long waits for Slinky etc bit the walking paths seem less crowded to me.
 
I've been checking wait times this week due to an upcoming trip. Trying to see if times of day have a trend. The last few days in the morning, wait times in MK have been low. Even now when I check (almost 10AM), 7DMT is 45 mins and PP is 35. That is low.
Lately, the weekends have been slow at MK. It may be that the locals are staying at home due to heat.
 
Don't have concrete proof of any of these points but this is just my 2 cents:

- Heat: it's been a feel temp of up to 107 some days. If I was planning a trip with family and friends, I would 100% swap to a time of year that is cooler, even if I had to sacrifice crowds.
- Northern schools are not out yet for summer vacation: obviously this is dependent on where you are but I grew up in NJ and our last days of school were June 18-21 (estimating as it changed every year) and we went back to school after Labor day.
- Continuation from the first point but parents are WAY more willing to take their kids out of school - I've seen it firsthand in my area. My neighbors took their two kids out of school for a 2 week trip to Italy. The time they went was WAAAAY cheaper than going during our county's spring break week.
Wait.. If they are in school that late, when do they start? This year we start on 8/21 and the last day of school is May 16
 
In Upstate NY school starts after Labor Day and ends at the end of the week. Some half days of school this week because of the heat wave.
I used to love those days when I was a kid, though they usually occurred at the beginning of the year. I guess we must not have had AC in the schools then. My kids never get half days for heat, but we get a ridiculous amount of snow days. Perhaps the best thing that came out of the pandemic was that they figured out virtual school. So now when there are snow days, the 1st 3 days are "free" then the next 3 they do virtual school. So like, an hour of school work, maybe a 15 min zoom. And so on. So the last day of school is never extended past the scheduled date. Every year pre pandemic the year was usually extended a week or so due to snow days. We don't get a ton of snow most years, but 85% of the students in the district are on gravel roads so it doesn't take much to make those roads sloppy.
 
I've been looking at the stats and live crowd numbers so far this June. It appears that they have been much lower than the last several years. We have been early to mid-June many times and they were consistently crowds of 6-8, even during rainstorms and extreme heat as summer often brings. In particular, Magic Kingdom has reported crowds of 2-3 the majority of the month so far.

Thoughts on this?
I Think Money has a lot to do with it. By the time you add the park tickets, and we can get Fl resident which right now for summer is really low. then hotels rates & then add Genie +. We usually try 2 trips a year, but we are down to one and we just booked this weekend June 21 - June 24 for a quick 3 day to Disney so I guess we will see how crowds are. We usually never do summer due to heat. which I think plays into the crowds. I know I had no issues getting any dining reservations.
 
We're going in the middle of July (yeah, we know it'll be miserably hot, but we're from Florida so relatively used to it). It's the only time we had to go before our son heads off to college. I've been very surprised at the ADR availability a month out. Things that are hard to get most of the year are available with multiple time slots: Le Cellier, Chef Mickey's, 'Ohana, CRT, Be Our Guest -- all available for the time we'll be there. So to me, that points to lower crowds. Hoping so, anyway.
I was shocked too. We had some spare airline credit and dvc points, so we decided to sneak down around July 4th.

We had no issue booking a standard view Boardwalk Studio or all of our dining reservations. I was shocked lol
Even our flights were 1/2 of what we paid for our Sept/Oct trip later this year.
 
My take is this:

I think there has been a rebalance of how people are spending their discretionary income. During the 'dark times' it was on home and life improvements to an extreme and just after the 'dark times' it was on experiences. Now I think people are more behaving in a way that reflects how that money was being spent prior to the 'dark times'.
On top of that, I think 2024 feels 'transitionary' in some ways. Lots of people I know personally are waiting/holding off on making decisions because there is still this uncertainty and unease about 'the state of things'.
I agree!
 
















GET A DISNEY VACATION QUOTE


Our Dreams Unlimited Travel Agents will assist you in booking the perfect Disney getaway, all at no extra cost to you. Get the most out of your vacation by letting us assist you with dining and park reservations, provide expert advice, answer any questions, and continuously search for discounts to ensure you get the best deal possible.

CLICK HERE




facebook twitter
Top