Thoughts on why crowds are lower this summer so far??

[DisneyFive]

Concerts have skyrocketed as well, but to me that’s handpicking very specific things to try and justify the cost or Disney’s massive price spike. Even taking into account inflationary impacts in general, Disney far outpaced it and I personally believe it’s starting to show the impact in attendance.

 

[Minnie1222]

Disney was able to charge those fees because they could. Once the demand decreases, we're going to see lower fees and better discounts.

 

[RivShore]

Disney was able to charge those fees because they could. Once the demand decreases, we're going to see lower fees and better discounts.

hmm, supply and demand, funny how that works...

 

[godfather927]

I just checked the wait times on thrill data for June between 2023 and 2024 and the difference was negligible.

 

[godfather927]

The problem is that these are being measured two different ways. MCO being busy is a "front end" measurement, whereas low wait times is a "back end" measurement.

If there still are high numbers going through MCO, and therefore still theoretically high numbers going to WDW, but the perceived numbers for wait times, etc, are lower/different, it might be as simple as people's park-going habits actually have changed due to the heat. i.e. people are more likely to be hiding in the AC in gift shops, their resort rooms, etc, in the middle of the day.

Yep, and wait times are a function of throughput. Increased staffing for more efficient ride loading would drop wait times for the same number of park guests between 2023 vs 2024.

 

[RivShore]

Concerts have skyrocketed as well, but to me that’s handpicking very specific things to try and justify the cost or Disney’s massive price spike. Even taking into account inflationary impacts in general, Disney far outpaced it and I personally believe it’s starting to show the impact in attendance.

I chose a bunch of other entertainment options, i don't think that is handpicking unrelated things. The prices of all those things are up because enough of the public will pay for it. As soon as demand drops, Disney will offer discounts to bring occupancy and attendance back to where they would like it. Why is that so wrong?

Let me try and put it another way - If you have an old Disney pin collection that you started thinking about selling 5 years ago and the going rate on eBay, at that time, was $5 a pin and you thought, well I'll just keep them and see if the price changes over the next few years.
You check this week and demand for those pins must have really picked up because they are now going for $50 a pin! Do you put them on eBay for $7 a pin (the $5 from 2019 plush inflation) or do you price them at the current rate that the demand is dictating?

 

[lentesta]

They actually had Epcot an 8 both Sunday & Monday. Thats the reason I take crowd calendars with a grain of salt. They don’t take into account how crowded the walkways are. When everything feels crowded & it’s had to get around, it sure doesn’t feel like a low crowd.

I see your point. I agree that you shouldn't use crowd calendars. They'll never do the thing you're looking for.

The concerns I'd have with trying to measure "feels crowded" as a metric are:

• It's subjective. Everyone's definition is going to be different. And everyone's definition is correct -for that one specific person.
• It's almost impossible to measure on a daily basis to determine crowds. Other than standing in the parking lot and asking people as they leave, I don't know how we'd do it.

So we can't measure it, and even if we could, nobody would agree on what it means. That is not a great basis for analysis.

The advantage to using posted wait times are that they're objective and easy to verify.

They're not perfect - they're often wrong in ways that limit how accurate an analysis can be.

But they solve those two issues, and they allow us to do at least some analysis work.

 

[balance_jow]

I am heading to DW in a couple weeks and just noticed that parks like MK (9AM-10PM vs 8AM-11PM) and AK (9AM-6PM vs 8AM-7PM) are going to start opening and hour later and closing an hour earlier then entire week I am there. Is that normal for July or is it related to the smaller crowds this summer? I figured that might reduce hours at AK during the shorter daylight months but July is definitely not one of those.I am now starting to feel like I am going to be rushed each day instead of having those extra 2 hours.

 

[Mouse Tracker]

Might help us provide some rationale if we new your dates.

Looks like next week is the change, July into August (AK/MK). Just "chatted" with a CM and they are clueless.
Rushed isn't what I call it, Lost Value for the ticket price in those affected parks.

 

[balance_jow]

Might help us provide some rationale if we new your dates.

It does not appear to be just isolated to a handful of dates. It looks like those hours are cut for all of July starting on July 8th for the rest of the month (in MDE app at least).

 

[jdtopgun71]

The US economy is the big reason, but I think people underestimate the number of International visitors to Orlando. Back in 2010 the exchange rate for the United Kingdom was 2:1 and has slowly leveled out. It was 1.5:1 in recent years and now is around 1.25:1 so those folks are counting their pennies now as well. Would be interested to hear from some of our friends across the pond to see if they've altered their travel plans because of the exchange rate?

 

[Mouse Tracker]

Mostly affects AK and MK

I can understand AK, summer heat (weather) having an impact on animals.
MK , maybe this change supports the argument that attendance is trending down.

 

[kilik64]

Disney was able to charge those fees because they could. Once the demand decreases, we're going to see lower fees and better discounts.

They kind of did that this year, the 4 park and 3 park magic tickets. They ran same promo last year but it was only the 4 park, and it didnt start until june 1 and blacked out holidays, which it doesnt this year. Course they also made it a sliding scale for pricing vs one fixed price, but still we did that this year for our Memorial week trip and it saved like 600-700 over just a normal 4 park ticket for the 5 of us.

 

[J-Dog]

Is it that shocking when you compare it to other entertainment offerings? Any major concert will probably get up over $1k for 4 decent seats. An NFL game for decent seats would run about the same, at best. Broadway show, more. And all those are 3 hours of entertainment at most vs. 12 plus hours at Epcot. I know everyone hates to hear it, but in context, it is not that far out of line (and that's before any available discounts for 3+ days kick in).

Yes. Totally agree. We were in WDW for 7 days in December 2023 and then Vegas for 4 days in February 2024, and we spent almost exactly the same amount. So, obviously this is very anecdotal, but in our case, Disney was the cheaper of the two when taken day-by-day.

Concerts have skyrocketed as well, but to me that’s handpicking very specific things to try and justify the cost or Disney’s massive price spike. Even taking into account inflationary impacts in general, Disney far outpaced it and I personally believe it’s starting to show the impact in attendance.

If @RivShore was handpicking, then please cite some actual data to the contrary. For my own interests, I would love to know about some comparable tourist or entertainment venues that have NOT increased in price dramatically in recent years.

 

[scrappinginontario]

I am heading to DW in a couple weeks and just noticed that parks like MK (9AM-10PM vs 8AM-11PM) and AK (9AM-6PM vs 8AM-7PM) are going to start opening and hour later and closing an hour earlier then entire week I am there. Is that normal for July or is it related to the smaller crowds this summer? I figured that might reduce hours at AK during the shorter daylight months but July is definitely not one of those.I am now starting to feel like I am going to be rushed each day instead of having those extra 2 hours.

It is still early for Disney to update those dates. Keep an eye out. You may see changes in times announced closer to your dates. There isn't a guarantee but, often happens.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yes. Totally agree. We were in WDW for 7 days in December 2023 and then Vegas for 4 days in February 2024, and we spent almost exactly the same amount. So, obviously this is very anecdotal, but in our case, Disney was the cheaper of the two when taken day-by-day.

If @RivShore was handpicking, then please cite some actual data to the contrary. For my own interests, I would love to know about some comparable tourist or entertainment venues that have NOT increased in price dramatically in recent years.

A good example is Cedar Point. Their passes and food plan has gone up maybe $30 in that time.

For $400 I have access to all Cedar Fair parks, meals covered twice a visit plus parking. It's been that price since 2019.

 

[scrappinginontario]

While attendance appears to be down, we're also not hearing, 'The parks are so crowded,' 'We spent all this money only to wait in lines.' and more.

A search back to threads in the 'late teens' (2015 - 2018) and you will find a lot more people complaining about how long they're waiting in lines. It was commonly said back then that Disney would continue to increase prices until they found their sweet spot of what people would be willing to pay vs. over-crowding the parks.

Yes, it is substantially more money to visit Disney now so our family counteracts this by visiting less often but at the same time we appreciate that the parks do not feel as crowded as they have in the past.

Just my .02.

 

[Mouse Tracker]

While attendance appears to be down, we're also not hearing, 'The parks are so crowded,' 'We spent all this money only to wait in lines.' and more.

A search back to threads in the 'late teens' (2015 - 2018) and you will find a lot more people complaining about how long they're waiting in lines. It was commonly said back then that Disney would continue to increase prices until they found their sweet spot of what people would be willing to pay vs. over-crowding the parks.

Yes, it is substantially more money to visit Disney now so our family counteracts this by visiting less often but at the same time we appreciate that the parks do not feel as crowded as they have in the past.

Just my .02.

Great perspective

 

[balance_jow]

Mostly affects AK and MK

I can understand AK, summer heat (weather) having an impact on animals.
MK , maybe this change supports the argument that attendance is trending down.

I understand the earlier close for AK due to the afternoon heat this time of year for the animals, but it is the opening later that has me scratching my head. The July heat at DW is slightly worse than where we live in the SE by about 3-4 degrees, but we normally try to rope drop each day and hit the pool for a midday break and return at night to reduce the impact. The loss of MK hours will hit harder than the AK ones, but I will miss that earlier morning hour for AK a lot.

 

[pwdebbie]

Disney was able to charge those fees because they could. Once the demand decreases, we're going to see lower fees and better discounts.

I'll believe it when I see it. I don't think see them lowering the price on anything.