The Poly2 Pricing Thread

[Sandisw]

Yup. And people said Disney can’t force annual pass holders to make park reservations in California. Fast forward to today and some are getting $67.41! You can’t even buy a single DVC point with that.

Lawyers always win. Disney May do what it needs to do and wants to do. Only time will tell. Right now it’s just a bunch of opinions being thrown into the wind.

True…I guess my point was more that there is no reason for DVD to move the points to the tower since it means less points to sell.

 

[DVCKing]

Did anyone else see the sky liner station in the plans?

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

True…I guess my point was more that there is no reason for DVD to move the points to the tower since it means less points to sell.

Ahh I see what you mean. Yes agree. But they’ll have to think about how the bungalows compare to 2 bedrooms. The points required will have to be similar and that would be crazy high. I know I know… you’re going to say “that’s why they’ll make it a new association”. I just don’t think that’s happening.

 

[Sandisw]

Ahh I see what you mean. Yes agree. But they’ll have to think about how the bungalows compare to 2 bedrooms. The points required will have to be similar and that would be crazy high. I know I know… you’re going to say “that’s why they’ll make it a new association”. I just don’t think that’s happening.

I don’t see why the bungalows and 2 bedrooms have to be similar. The cabins at CCV are priced higher than the 2 bedrooms.

Even though I do think it will be new, if they end up the same, the bungalows are a completely different type of accommodation and can survive being as high as they are.

 

[Jwaire]

I've been reading about DVC reallocating points to "fix the bungalow problem" here since PVB was opened in 2015.

They've had 8 years. They don't care.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Here's another one for the speculation files. Based on number of keys and other factors that the more experienced and intelligent posters can extrapolate...what do we think 7 month availability will look like for the tower. And obviously old or new association would have a lot to do with that.

 

[Sandisw]

Here's another one for the speculation files. Based on number of keys and other factors that the more experienced and intelligent posters can extrapolate...what do we think 7 month availability will look like for the tower. And obviously old or new association would have a lot to do with that.

I think that the same association will make it harder at 7 months if it goes with the notion that it balances the resort and gives current owners more options.

My guess is that the ones that will be the easiest will be the 1 bedrooms..and the duos will most likely be gone.

I also think that the studios that are the lowest points will also be gone by 7 months.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

I think that the same association will make it harder at 7 months if it goes with the notion that it balances the resort and gives current owners more options.

My guess is that the ones that will be the easiest will be the 1 bedrooms..and the duos will most likely be gone.

And what do you think if it was a separate association? Now I'm not direct (yet) but I'd be interested if you think you'd be able to get in with your Riv or VGF points.

 

[Sandisw]

And what do you think if it was a separate association? Now I'm not direct (yet) but I'd be interested if you think you'd be able to get in with your Riv or VGF points.

If it’s a different association, I still think
it is going to be hard, depending on the chart. But we are 1 bedroom people so I think chances will be good!

However, If it is new, we will seriously consider adding on points there instead of more ar RIV.

 

[ehh]

I've been reading about DVC reallocating points to "fix the bungalow problem" here since PVB was opened in 2015.

They've had 8 years. They don't care.

They definitely don't care about 'fixing the bungalow problem'. And I think there's basically no chance of them touching the Bungalow points in any meaningful way.

But it just dawned on me that a reallocation is an opportunity to sell more Poly2 points, new association or not. Here's how:

Let's assume that there's 25 duos, 65 studios, 65 1BR, 65 2BR, and 5 GV at Poly2. (The specific numbers aren't that important for this exercise, but we need to work with something.)

PVB Bungalows are 146.9pt/night on average in 2024, LV Studios are 25.8pt/night, and SV Studios are 21.7pt/night (Studios combined are an average of 22.54pt/night). Let's also assume that Poly2 Studios will have roughly matching points charts to the PVB Studios (evidence for reasonable assumption: VGF2's Resort Studios match VGF1's Deluxe Studios and CCV nearly matches BRV).

Let's also assume Duos are ~75% the points of Studios, 1BR are ~2x, 2BR are ~2.7x, and GVs are ~6.5x (evidence for reasonable assumption: these are standard ratios). Ignoring the potential for Theme Park Views rooms, we're looking at roughly 3.48mil points (NOTE: this is NOT a prediction for how many Poly2 points there are, it's just a useful baseline in this hypothetical).

Bungalows are roughly 1.08mil pts per year currently, with PVB Studios roughly 2.97mil. Let's say they decide to redo Bungalow points and make them equal to CCV Cabins at 114.4pt/night. This would drop Bungalow points from 1.08mil to 837k, shifting to PVB Studios. This would increase PVB Studios to 24.35pts/night from 22.54pts/night.

But critically, if Poly2 Studios have the ~same points as PVB Studios and the ratios between Studio/1BR/2BR/etc stay the same, it means that Poly2 goes from 3.48mil points to 3.76mil points. This growth effect amplifies with a higher ratio of large villas and potentially with Theme Park Views (depends how they price them).

tl;dr: by shifting points from Bungalows to PVB Studios, they can 'fix the bungalow problem' and increase the points in Poly2 while meeting points chart expectations

Note: I am stating no opinion/judgement/viewpoint on the legal viability or even whether they will, just saying it is a potential mechanism to increase Poly2 points

 

[Mikey15]

Bungalows are roughly 1.08mil pts per year currently, with PVB Studios roughly 2.97mil. Let's say they decide to redo Bungalow points and make them equal to CCV Cabins at 114.4pt/night. This would drop Bungalow points from 1.08mil to 837k, shifting to PVB Studios. This would increase PVB Studios to 24.35pts/night from 22.54pts/night.

But critically, if Poly2 Studios have the ~same points as PVB Studios and the ratios between Studio/1BR/2BR/etc stay the same, it means that Poly2 goes from 3.48mil points to 3.76mil points. This growth effect amplifies with a higher ratio of large villas and potentially with Theme Park Views (depends how they price them).

Correct me if I’m interpreting you wrong here, but what you’re saying is if they rebalance PVB bungalows & studios (lowering bungalow points, increasing studios), and then price the Poly 2 studios at that revised higher point level, while maintaining standard ratios, it will increase their overall points they’re selling for Poly 2, right?

That does make sense to me too, though I also note:
-They can make the Poly 2 studios more points than PVB studios without rebalancing PVB
-Studios in Poly 2 can (likely will) be a separate booking category even if the same association
-Even if they do rebalance and they are the same point price, they can still be separate associations

Basically I suppose the launch of the tower could give them cover to do a PVB rebalance, but it’d really be independent events occurring at the same time. They don’t need to change PVB to price the tower where they want to, and the old vs new association question doesn’t really impact it either.

 

[Hubalorian]

They definitely don't care about 'fixing the bungalow problem'. And I think there's basically no chance of them touching the Bungalow points in any meaningful way.

But it just dawned on me that a reallocation is an opportunity to sell more Poly2 points, new association or not. Here's how:

Let's assume that there's 25 duos, 65 studios, 65 1BR, 65 2BR, and 5 GV at Poly2. (The specific numbers aren't that important for this exercise, but we need to work with something.)

PVB Bungalows are 146.9pt/night on average in 2024, LV Studios are 25.8pt/night, and SV Studios are 21.7pt/night (Studios combined are an average of 22.54pt/night). Let's also assume that Poly2 Studios will have roughly matching points charts to the PVB Studios (evidence for reasonable assumption: VGF2's Resort Studios match VGF1's Deluxe Studios and CCV nearly matches BRV).

Let's also assume Duos are ~75% the points of Studios, 1BR are ~2x, 2BR are ~2.7x, and GVs are ~6.5x (evidence for reasonable assumption: these are standard ratios). Ignoring the potential for Theme Park Views rooms, we're looking at roughly 3.48mil points (NOTE: this is NOT a prediction for how many Poly2 points there are, it's just a useful baseline in this hypothetical).

Bungalows are roughly 1.08mil pts per year currently, with PVB Studios roughly 2.97mil. Let's say they decide to redo Bungalow points and make them equal to CCV Cabins at 114.4pt/night. This would drop Bungalow points from 1.08mil to 837k, shifting to PVB Studios. This would increase PVB Studios to 24.35pts/night from 22.54pts/night.

But critically, if Poly2 Studios have the ~same points as PVB Studios and the ratios between Studio/1BR/2BR/etc stay the same, it means that Poly2 goes from 3.48mil points to 3.76mil points. This growth effect amplifies with a higher ratio of large villas and potentially with Theme Park Views (depends how they price them).

tl;dr: by shifting points from Bungalows to PVB Studios, they can 'fix the bungalow problem' and increase the points in Poly2 while meeting points chart expectations

Note: I am stating no opinion/judgement/viewpoint on the legal viability or even whether they will, just saying it is a potential mechanism to increase Poly2 points

I don’t believe that would give them more points to sell? If they rebalance, they’ve already sold the Poly1 points that would be absorbed into Poly2?

For example. In your hypothetical, Poly 1 has 4.05 million points to be sold. Lets assume they sold them all (I know they must retain some, this is purely for this exercise). However, if they fix the bungalow problem and reduce the number of points, let’s say poly1 now has 3.5 million points, they’ve already sold 0.58 million points, because they sold 4.08 million points to begin with.

 

[Minniemoo15]

What Bungalow problem? This isn’t a CCV situation where studios are snatched up at 11 Months while the cabins sit unbooked forever. At PVB the studios and bungalows alike are both generally wide open at 7 months and beyond.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I don't understand why people think the bungalows are a problem Disney feels needs to be solved. We may feel the points are unbalanced or whatever, but I doubt they do. I think we're all thinking up reasons it will be same or new association, whichever we are hoping for

#teamNew

 

[Sandisw]

They definitely don't care about 'fixing the bungalow problem'. And I think there's basically no chance of them touching the Bungalow points in any meaningful way.

But it just dawned on me that a reallocation is an opportunity to sell more Poly2 points, new association or not. Here's how:

Let's assume that there's 25 duos, 65 studios, 65 1BR, 65 2BR, and 5 GV at Poly2. (The specific numbers aren't that important for this exercise, but we need to work with something.)

PVB Bungalows are 146.9pt/night on average in 2024, LV Studios are 25.8pt/night, and SV Studios are 21.7pt/night (Studios combined are an average of 22.54pt/night). Let's also assume that Poly2 Studios will have roughly matching points charts to the PVB Studios (evidence for reasonable assumption: VGF2's Resort Studios match VGF1's Deluxe Studios and CCV nearly matches BRV).

Let's also assume Duos are ~75% the points of Studios, 1BR are ~2x, 2BR are ~2.7x, and GVs are ~6.5x (evidence for reasonable assumption: these are standard ratios). Ignoring the potential for Theme Park Views rooms, we're looking at roughly 3.48mil points (NOTE: this is NOT a prediction for how many Poly2 points there are, it's just a useful baseline in this hypothetical).

Bungalows are roughly 1.08mil pts per year currently, with PVB Studios roughly 2.97mil. Let's say they decide to redo Bungalow points and make them equal to CCV Cabins at 114.4pt/night. This would drop Bungalow points from 1.08mil to 837k, shifting to PVB Studios. This would increase PVB Studios to 24.35pts/night from 22.54pts/night.

But critically, if Poly2 Studios have the ~same points as PVB Studios and the ratios between Studio/1BR/2BR/etc stay the same, it means that Poly2 goes from 3.48mil points to 3.76mil points. This growth effect amplifies with a higher ratio of large villas and potentially with Theme Park Views (depends how they price them).

tl;dr: by shifting points from Bungalows to PVB Studios, they can 'fix the bungalow problem' and increase the points in Poly2 while meeting points chart expectations

Note: I am stating no opinion/judgement/viewpoint on the legal viability or even whether they will, just saying it is a potential mechanism to increase Poly2 points

I can see what you are saying, but remember, the charts and points for sale are determined using the 2 bedroom point values.

The fact that Poly tower will have dedicated studios and 1 bedrooms can help. But, they would still need to consider this in pricing studios higher.

This was also tried to a small degree with the 2020 charts and they decided to reverse it…I still think that any moving of points, even if initially at PVB, would temper total points they can sell because they have to take that into account..

I think where they can already get the points, without risking issues, is the potential TPV rooms which can be priced higher…like they did with BPK.

No need to mess with PVBs structure.

 

[KimMcGowan]

What Bungalow problem? This isn’t a CCV situation where studios are snatched up at 11 Months while the cabins sit unbooked forever. At PVB the studios and bungalows alike are both generally wide open at 7 months and beyond.

I don’t believe this is totally accurate, at least as far as studios are concerned. As I have noted before, I believe “wide open” at 7 months is a fallacy. I know this is widely believed and I am not faulting you for saying it. However, there have been plenty of times I wanted to add a day after the 7 month date has passed and I could not. Are days available here and there? Certainly. However, I think wide open is a wild misinterpretation of availability.

 

[gmi3804]

I think the people who think there's a bungalow problem are those (and admittedly there are a lot of them) who don't have enough points for them. Realistically, the only thing that bungalows have in common with 2BRs is that they have 2BRs. They're almost totally different animals, no?

 

[aka Charles]

I don’t believe this is totally accurate, at least as far as studios are concerned. As I have noted before, I believe “wide open” at 7 months is a fallacy. I know this is widely believed and I am not faulting you for saying it. However, there have been plenty of times I wanted to add a day after the 7 month date has passed and I could not. Are days available here and there? Certainly. However, I think wide open is a wild misinterpretation of availability.

I just checked availibility for 6-7 months out for PVB studios.
Over half of March and almost all of April is available for both standard and lake views.
That seems fairly wide open to me.
The days that are already booked in those months are around spring break and Easter.
For the most part, it seems that it is not difficult to get a PVB studio at 7 months.
Holidays and other school breaks are always the exception.
The further that someone waits inside of 7 months to book, the less their chances are, though.
Once inside of 7 months, Disney cranks up the cash bookings using the points that they control, further reducing availability.
.

 

[Minniemoo15]

I don’t believe this is totally accurate, at least as far as studios are concerned. As I have noted before, I believe “wide open” at 7 months is a fallacy. I know this is widely believed and I am not faulting you for saying it. However, there have been plenty of times I wanted to add a day after the 7 month date has passed and I could not. Are days available here and there? Certainly. However, I think wide open is a wild misinterpretation of availability.

A quick look at the availability charts shows PVB standard studios completely open year round at 8 months (save for the first 2 weeks of December) and open at the 7 month mark for 75% of the year. Regardless, I don’t believe a perceived imbalance of the bungalows is having any meaningful impact on PVB owners. Unlike CCV, where there most certainly is an imbalance and it is impacting CCV owners’ ability to book other types of accommodations, studios in particular.

Another point is that PVB studios are already the most expensive point-wise on property (even more than GFV which surprises a lot of people). You can’t rebalance from the bungalows and raise them much higher.

 

[gmi3804]

A quick look at the availability charts shows PVB standard studios completely open year round at 8 months (save for the first 2 weeks of December) and open at the 7 month mark for 75% of the year. Regardless, I don’t believe a perceived imbalance of the bungalows is having any meaningful impact on PVB owners. Unlike CCV, where there most certainly is an imbalance and it is impacting CCV owners’ ability to book other types of accommodations, studios in particular.

I recently did a search for a studio or 1BR for a couple weeks before Easter '24, and WDW resorts were all wide open for the whole week, just about every category except BCV studios and AKV concierge. Availability is certainly trending up.