The large number of new Aulani resale contracts??

[intamin]

Chat GPT's two cents worth ... keep in mind HOW you word the question matters, of course:

Are changes in the AirBNB laws likely to affect timeshares in Oahu like Aulani?

ChatGPT said:​

Yes, changes in Airbnb laws and short-term rental regulations in Oahu, Hawaii, could potentially impact timeshares like Aulani, though the effects might vary depending on the specifics of the law.

1. New Oahu Short-Term Rental Law: Honolulu passed Ordinance 22-7 in 2022, which significantly tightened regulations on short-term rentals. It extended the minimum rental period for properties outside designated resort zones from 30 days to 90 days, making it more difficult for homeowners to rent their properties for shorter vacation stays. This change primarily targets privately owned vacation homes and Airbnb-type rentals outside resort areas.
2. Impact on Timeshares: While timeshare properties like Aulani operate within designated resort zones and cater primarily to DVC members, the stricter laws could still affect the broader short-term rental market in Oahu. If stricter enforcement limits private vacation rentals, demand for resort stays—including timeshares—could increase. However, individual owners who rent out their DVC points to non-members might need to be cautious about local regulations if they fall under the definition of short-term rentals.
3. Potential Increase in Demand for Legal Rentals: With fewer legal short-term rental options available outside resort zones, tourists may turn to resorts like Aulani for their accommodations, which could make DVC points for this property more valuable. On the flip side, it could also create more competition for bookings among DVC members, as tourists seek out compliant resort-based stays.
4. Uncertainty for Owners Renting Out Points: If DVC members try to rent their Aulani points through platforms like Airbnb or private rental markets, they may face complications due to changing laws. Any owners considering renting out their timeshare weeks should stay updated on local rental ordinances to avoid fines or penalties.

In summary, the new laws primarily target private short-term rental homes, but they could have indirect effects on timeshare markets like Aulani by changing the supply and demand dynamics of vacation rentals in Oahu.

I’m actually impressed Chat GPT came up with such an in depth answer. Never had any intention of renting out my AUL points, may be tempting to grab more if the price is right but I think I need more home resort priority in other locations

 

[CastAStone]

That’s good for Aulani. On the TUG Hawaii Timesharing forum there’s legitimate concern about some of the changes in regulations - not just short-term rentals but also property taxes, etc. - that can adversely affect timeshare ownership and rentals.

It certainly seems like going to be higher taxes on Maui-based timeshares based on a local ordinance change (that specific one is not a state thing). But I’m not sure what else I may not know about the new state law.

I’m really interested to understand if timeshare rentals will be treated like home and condo rentals.

Like I said, if the laws are clumsily written…

 

[VGCgroupie]

This is different than the new Air-Bnb law so this can end up making an impact https://www.insurancebusinessmag.co...ion-to-stabilize-insurance-market-500994.aspx

 

[AstroBlasters]

This is different than the new Air-Bnb law so this can end up making an impact https://www.insurancebusinessmag.co...ion-to-stabilize-insurance-market-500994.aspx

The state is going to start taking out loans to write insurance policies? What could go wrong….

 

[CastAStone]

The state is going to start taking out loans to write insurance policies? What could go wrong….

They already can for some properties (also true in most costal states) this just adds condos to the list.

 

[CastAStone]

I see that insurance rates are going crazy for condominiums; not sure how much this applies to Aulani, which I would imagine is, like the WDW Disney resorts, significantly overbuilt vs local codes.

Even if they quintupled, the impact on dues would be more obnoxious than devastating:


The bigger issue would be if they kept rising at a high rate. But we have no reason to believe that the extreme increases will be a permanent change to how rates increase (like what’s happening in Florida the last 5-7 years) vs a 1-2 year market adjustment (like what happened in Florida after Andrew).

 

[lilsonicfan]

The aggregator site I use shows 71 AUL listings by https://resales.*******.com/ right now, almost 50 of them were listed in the last week or so.

 

[disneylandtour]

Another wave of Aulani contracts showed up this morning from the usual brokers. So confused. The likely outcome will be to crash the Aulani resale market, which most hurts the same people who are posting dozens and dozens of resale contracts there.

 

[VGCgroupie]

The aggregator site I use shows 71 AUL listings by https://resales.*******.com/ right now, almost 50 of them were listed in the last week or so.

So crazy. If these are all one seller it really shines a light on commercial renting and how drastic it can be.

 

[JackosinDIS]

It’s bizarre. AUL resales account for 16% of all listings right now. I don’t have any skin in this particular game, but I’m very keen to know what is going on!

 

[JackosinDIS]

So crazy. If these are all one seller it really shines a light on commercial renting and how drastic it can be.

Yes, there are some mega-owners (and presumably mega-renters) out there!

 

[lilsonicfan]

Entirely speculative on my part, but if it is this one broker (who also does rentals) that has flooded the market and if those contracts are owned by that broker or someone affiliated, it could be less of a panic re: DVC cracking down on renting, and more just someone who doesn't really want to do it any more. I don't know. I can see on https://rentals.*******.com/ that they have a lot of AUL hotel room and studio confirmed bookings all the way into September 2025, clearly someone is booking these with 11 month advantage and posting them for rent right away.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Entirely speculative on my part, but if it is this one broker (who also does rentals) that has flooded the market and if those contracts are owned by that broker or someone affiliated, it could be less of a panic re: DVC cracking down on renting, and more just someone who doesn't really want to do it any more. I don't know. I can see on https://rentals.*******.com/ that they have a lot of AUL hotel room and studio confirmed bookings all the way into September 2025, clearly someone is booking these with 11 month advantage and posting them for rent right away.

I think if this were the case it would be more than just Aulani being listed.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Entirely speculative on my part, but if it is this one broker (who also does rentals) that has flooded the market and if those contracts are owned by that broker or someone affiliated, it could be less of a panic re: DVC cracking down on renting, and more just someone who doesn't really want to do it any more. I don't know. I can see on https://rentals.*******.com/ that they have a lot of AUL hotel room and studio confirmed bookings all the way into September 2025, clearly someone is booking these with 11 month advantage and posting them for rent right away.

So THATs where all of the hotel room inventory goes

 

[DonMacGregor]

I don't know if it's relevant or not, but I own 6 Aulani contracts and each time I purchase one, I follow up with the Bureau of Conveyances to make sure everything has been recorded properly, and out of those 6 contracts, 2 of them were previously owned by the same Asian individual, legal address in NYC. That person has owned well over 100 different timeshare contracts in Hawaii, most of which were/are Aulani.

I also purchased a little OKW contract back in 2023 (sold it a month or so later because it was an impulse buy due to the low cost) that was one of 24 contracts, all from the same individual, all listed on the same day.

ETA: not saying this has ANYTHING to do with the current influx of contracts, simply saying I have personal experience/knowledge of more than one individual that has owned numerous (as in dozens of) contracts at a single resort...

 

[disneylandtour]

I don't know if it's relevant or not, but I own 6 Aulani contracts and each time I purchase one, I follow up with the Bureau of Conveyances to make sure everything has been recorded properly, and out of those 6 contracts, 2 of them were previously owned by the same Asian individual, legal address in NYC. That person has owned well over 100 different timeshare contracts in Hawaii, most of which were/are Aulani.

I also purchased a little OKW contract back in 2023 (sold it a month or so later because it was an impulse buy due to the low cost) that was one of 24 contracts, all from the same individual, all listed on the same day.

ETA: not saying this has ANYTHING to do with the current influx of contracts, simply saying I have personal experience/knowledge of more than one individual that has owned numerous (as in dozens of) contracts at a single resort...

I think what we're seeing here is different. These are largely stripped contracts used for rentals. And there's been between 70 and 80 of them now, with a few having already been sold. Essentially, the listings of Aulani doubled in a few days.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think what we're seeing here is different. These are largely stripped contracts used for rentals. And there's been between 70 and 80 of them now, with a few having already been sold. Essentially, the listings of Aulani doubled in a few days.

I'm saying I've seen individuals with several dozen contracts at a single resort bow out all at once, so I don't find it one bit surprising that a broker or other individual who owns dozens of contracts for rental income might strip them all before bowing out of the game. If an individual can have dozens of contracts at one resort, a broker could have multiple times that.

Now, the REASON for getting out, and out of one resort in particular, is certainly curious.

 

[ocdb8r1]

...it is very bizarre indeed. I know SSR has always been a higher volume location, but also seems like a larger than normal number of SSR contracts also listed in the last 5-7 days. If not some concern about a crack down on renting, perhaps someone with a less than stellar year of rentals trying to get rid of contracts before the annuals dues invoices hit (both to reduce what they need to come up with out of pocket, but also to get ahead of the normal market bump we see at that time of the year). All pure speculation, but something unusual is definitely going on.

 

[DonMacGregor]

...it is very bizarre indeed. I know SSR has always been a higher volume location, but also seems like a larger than normal number of SSR contracts also listed in the last 5-7 days. If not some concern about a crack down on renting, perhaps someone with a less than stellar year of rentals trying to get rid of contracts before the annuals dues invoices hit (both to reduce what they need to come up with out of pocket, but also to get ahead of the normal market bump we see at that time of the year). All pure speculation, but something unusual is definitely going on.

The timing certainly could be due to the requirement by Disney that any contract that closes after 12/1 is required to pay the following year's dues in full at time of closing. If you're unloading stripped contracts, asking a buyer to pay 2025 dues (or covering them yourself) is a tough sell. Even now, you're really flirting with that 12/1 deadline for sure.

 

[lilsonicfan]

The aggregator site I use shows 71 AUL listings by https://resales.*******.com/ right now, almost 50 of them were listed in the last week or so.

This same broker has 181 total listings, over 100 of which were listed in the last week. By contrast, the board sponsor has 364 listings of which just about 100 were listed in the last week. Perhaps one major owner is dumping as previously stated but largely through one broker.