The large number of new Aulani resale contracts??

[CastAStone]

I wasn’t around in previous years, has something of this magnitude happened just before dues any other years?

Usually there’s a gradual build starting in the middle of the fall (nowish) that continues into spring. I think the dues are a part of it but the listing increases continue after dues are due; I think a lot of it also stems from softer sales in the winter.

 

[kgou]

I think we're starting to see some dumping of SSR in all this, too. It's less, but noticeable. Same players.

Wondering if the same players are dumping BWV contracts also ...less than the AUL dump, but noticeable.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I had never compared the amount of listings broker by broker since the aggregator I normally use didn't add them up, and I didn't want to take time to go to each site.

Just found it listed by broker. I knew there was more with one, but I didnt realize how many more than all the others. Below is the amount of Aulani listed by each broker.

• 80
• 34
• 16
• 17
• 11
• 11
• 2
• 3
• 1
• 2
• 2

Here are the SSR #'s for comparison.

• 41
• 44
• 21
• 16
• 13
• 7
• 5
• 10
• 8
• 6
• 0

 

[Brian Noble]

is there chatter in any of the tugbbs forums about potential large increases coming to owner dues for Hawaii properties?

Not that I’ve seen.

 

[DanCali]

@Brian Noble Since you seem to be knowledgeable about other time share systems, is there chatter in any of the tugbbs forums about potential large increases coming to owner dues for Hawaii properties?

It's worth noting that dues for Marriott Ko Olina increased 8% in 2023 and 14% in 2024, which makes Aulani (5.4% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024) look good in comparison.

Maintenance fees for Marriotts and Westins just started coming out this week. So far, the only Hawaii property I've seen is the Westin Princeville (Kauai) with a 4.8% increase (it was 8.8% increase in 2024).

 

[VGCgroupie]

It's worth noting that dues for Marriott Ko Olina increased 8% in 2023 and 14% in 2024, which makes Aulani (5.4% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024) look good in comparison.

Maintenance fees for Marriotts and Westins just started coming out this week. So far, the only Hawaii property I've seen is the Westin Princeville (Kauai) with a 4.8% increase (it was 8.8% increase in 2024).

This feels like good news

 

[Disfamwa]

It's worth noting that dues for Marriott Ko Olina increased 8% in 2023 and 14% in 2024, which makes Aulani (5.4% in 2023 and 6.8% in 2024) look good in comparison.

Maintenance fees for Marriotts and Westins just started coming out this week. So far, the only Hawaii property I've seen is the Westin Princeville (Kauai) with a 4.8% increase (it was 8.8% increase in 2024).

Seems like hopeful news!

And those Marriot Ko Olina due increases are brutal. I hope we don’t see something like that in the future, but I guess it’s always a risk.

 

[CastAStone]

Here are the SSR #'s for comparison.

• 41
• 44
• 21
• 16
• 13
• 7
• 5
• 10
• 8
• 6
• 0

That feels like a pretty normal distribution

 

[atthebeachclub]

That feels like a pretty normal distribution

I agree, and also Saratoga always has a lot on the market. It’s huge.

 

[VGCgroupie]

That feels like a pretty normal distribution

Agreed

 

[AstroBlasters]

Obviously all commercial renters aren’t out of the market

 

[ocdb8r1]

That feels like a pretty normal distribution

Except that the 41 contracts are being offered by a broker that has normally represented less than 10% of the overall DVC resale market, currently represents about 18% of the overall DVC market....and now represents 25% of the SSR market and 44% of the AUL market.

 

[kgou]

Let's say there is one prolific corporate renter who appears to be unloading many of their (stripped) contracts - do we think the more likely reason is they simply churn and burn, and will gradually start buying up loaded contracts in order to rent the points/strip, or do we think this is a result of repercussions from DVC? Of course, none of us have crystal balls but wondering what the DIS brain trust thinks the explanation is.

 

[disneylandtour]

Let's say there is one prolific corporate renter who appears to be unloading many of their (stripped) contracts - do we think the more likely reason is they simply churn and burn, and will gradually start buying up loaded contracts in order to rent the points/strip, or do we think this is a result of repercussions from DVC? Of course, none of us have crystal balls but wondering what the DIS brain trust thinks the explanation is.

What would be the point of unloading them just to stock up again?? At least in my mind, that only makes sense if they 99% knew they were selling high because AUL was about to sink...by a lot. Right now, it seems like all their doing is making their own contracts sink in the near future. This feels far more like someone is trying to get out of this aspect of the business.

Just out of curiosity--is there any part of that Hawaiian bill that targets commercial renters specifically?

 

[kgou]

What would be the point of unloading them just to stock up again?? At least in my mind, that only makes sense if they 99% knew they were selling high because AUL was about to sink...by a lot. Right now, it seems like all their doing is making their own contracts sink in the near future. This feels far more like someone is trying to get out of this aspect of the business.

Just out of curiosity--is there any part of that Hawaiian bill that targets commercial renters specifically?

I thought I saw that floated as a possible explanation earlier on in this thread but after skimming through again, I must have made that up agree that there would be no point doing that.

 

[disneylandtour]

And after the morning AUL contracts, this afternoon there's another eight AUL from one of the two usual brokers.

It's simply stunning how deep this dump is and--by extension--how many thousands of points these two places were sitting on to rent out.

 

[Sandisw]

Just a reminder, you may not share details of a contract for sale as we do not allow For Sale posts and have no way of knowing if someone is talking about their own contract.

General trends can be discussed.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Let's say there is one prolific corporate renter who appears to be unloading many of their (stripped) contracts - do we think the more likely reason is they simply churn and burn, and will gradually start buying up loaded contracts in order to rent the points/strip, or do we think this is a result of repercussions from DVC? Of course, none of us have crystal balls but wondering what the DIS brain trust thinks the explanation is.

Yeah doesn’t seem logical to me. If anything it hurts your own resale business

 

[pzw90]

Had another idea that came to me. What if they are dumping more contracts behind the scenes that we don't see. The brokers know what the ROFRs are better than we do considering how much volume they have. They could then sell some resorts like AKV (sure they have a bunch of those in order to snag the value rooms) between their LLCs. Example, ABC LLC sells to CBA LLC (both owned by the broker) selling AKV at $95 (hypothetical) and hope for ROFR. If if doesn't get ROFR'ed just cancel the sale, and try again with a different contract or price, assuming any other costs are kept in-house. Don't see it with AUL because it just isn't getting ROFR'ed so have to list it. Of course could get more if it lists and a buyer takes their inflated prices.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Had another idea that came to me. What if they are dumping more contracts behind the scenes that we don't see. The brokers know what the ROFRs are better than we do considering how much volume they have. They could then sell some resorts like AKV (sure they have a bunch of those in order to snag the value rooms) between their LLCs. Example, ABC LLC sells to CBA LLC (both owned by the broker) selling AKV at $95 (hypothetical) and hope for ROFR. If if doesn't get ROFR'ed just cancel the sale, and try again with a different contract or price, assuming any other costs are kept in-house. Don't see it with AUL because it just isn't getting ROFR'ed so have to list it. Of course could get more if it lists and a buyer takes their inflated prices.

I think that is playing with fire and would put them at risk of being looked into further.