Resale Restriction Scenario

[Frederic Civish]

@summerwA resale buyer of the L14 15-20 years from now may also be looking at being functionally restricted to their home resort.

Yes, true. I think these resale restrictions will really end up affecting everyone, not just Riviera owners.

You are both right. We do look at the restrictions on Riviera Resales Owners, who will never be able to exchange out at 7 months, but we have to realize that we ALL might be in the same boat. There will undoubtedly be further restrictions on future DVC Resorts (if this one flies), AND, all Disney has to do is to keep building a lot of big expensive 'Bungalows' (looks like Reflections might go wild over something like that) and nobody will use the big expensive units, so they will all be trying to get 7 month availability elsewhere. Anyone who owned DVC 5 or 10 years ago will tell you that they pretty much could book whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted. And look at it now! Imagine if this trend continues for another 5 or 10 years. We will all be locked into our home resorts because of a complete lack of availability and flexibility. We will ALL be booking our Home Resorts in the 7 to 11 month window, in order to get something, so, when the 7 month window arrives, nothing will be left.

I wonder if we might see a phenomenon start on the boards where, instead of people trying to rent out their points, they start putting up their booked reservations 'for trade.' I could see, "I have a Standard View Studio at Riviera, Jan 14th through the 22st. Looking for a Lake View Studio at BLT for May 2nd through the 9th," or something like that. It will be a much less efficient way to do things, but if that is the only way you can trade out to other resorts, then that is what it might come down to.

 

[Frederic Civish]

. . . . no intention to purchase Riviera although I have been know to change my mind....... The resale restrictions remove it as an option for me. I'm very unhappy with the direction that DVC is taking with that and their lock-off premium increases as well and a purchase there is a confirmation to DVC that they can make sweeping changes such as this and owners won't care or won't care enough to not purchase. Even if I loved it I have enough other resorts that I'm very happy with and would not give them my ok on the changes via a purchase.

With that in mind, does anyone have any numbers on the initial sales month at Riviera? How does first month sales there compare to first month sales at other resorts in the past?

. . . . for the restrictions made in 2011, 2016 and 2018, any effect on resales was short lived and, despite the restrictions, the number of resales continued to increase over time. . . . about 20% of total contracts sold over the last few year have been resales. Seems big.

In looking at that number it is important to remember that every contract DVD sells increases the total number of contracts while every resale contract just changes who owns the existing contracts. So, while there were about 10K resales over the last two years, there were also 35K new contracts in the system.

As to the problems for purchasers as discussed by OP, the possibility does exist that members would have problems using DRR resale points at the last minute. Not to be flip (pun intended) but it is something they will learn to deal with.

I would prefer that DVD didn’t screw with the basic BVTC agreement to mess with resale, as they made explicit rules and now they simply ignore the rules they made. And no, I don’t see them going back. I also don’t see it destroying the resale market or DVC.

The previous restrictions on 'benefits' to resale owners were not really significant. Denying resale owners the right to exchange into Riviera and denying the Riviera owners the right to exchange out is a profound change. And I still don't think that Disney has the right to do that, based on their previous agreements, in the contracts of previous purchasers, that mandated that EVERYONE would have access to ALL the DVC resorts.

You simply cannot compare previous restrictions to the new resale restrictions. Previous restrictions did not alter the functionality of point usage. It doesn’t matter to me who buys DRR direct, but resalers are going to be weighing the restrictions.

Just yesterday on FB someone posted « Help, I have 350 pts at CCV & lost my job. ». There were several helpful people who pointed him in the direction of resale sites & comments of «That’s the great thing about DVC; it holds its resale value»... I’m not buying DRR resale, and certainly not at a price high enough to get him out of hot water if he owned at DRR not CCV. It’ll be interesting to see how many will.

I think people might be willing to pay a pretty good price for resale contracts at Riviera, at first. But then it will become more and more apparent that just being restricted to Riviera is a lot less fun, and a lot more boring, if it is the only resort you can go to year after year. So once this 'Home Resort Fatigue' sets in, it is another reason why more of the Riviera Resale Owners will tire of Riviera and will want to go out and resell their resales contract. This will increase the number of resales contracts on the market, and also tend to drive the price down.

Right now, Riviera seems especially attractive, more than it would normally be, because it is this shiny, new, pretty building, occupying this beautiful location at the end of the lake. And people have seen it coming and been interested, and there is a fair amount of pent up demand. But, once the newness factor wears off, and once Disney moves on to Reflections, so that Riviera is no longer the newest, most impressive thing, then I think a lot of owners and potential owners will re-evaluate their thoughts on the desirability of Riviera.

 

[katandmouse]

With that in mind, does anyone have any numbers on the initial sales month at Riviera? How does first month sales there compare to first month sales at other resorts in the past?

https://www.disboards.com/threads/analysis-of-riviera-sales-as-of-5-10-2019.3749175/

https://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/d...ws-34867/4467-direct-sales-soar-in-april-2019

 

[summerw]

@summerw, I was in the camp of, "I'll pick up some cheap resale RIV points later" because of the resale restriction, but given the price point and comparison between adding on at BLT resale vs. buying RIV direct, the extra $ was worth it to me, largely to have home resort advantage for up to 50 years at an EP/HS resort. As for resale, if we bought more BLT and had to sell anywhere close to 2042, it's anyone's guess what that would mean, since BCV/BWV/BRV would be out of the system then. A resale buyer of the L14 15-20 years from now may also be looking at being functionally restricted to their home resort.

I agree about 2042. And the ratio of L14 resales to riviera resales will matter since they will be mutually excluded. So much on which to speculate...

Right now, Riviera seems especially attractive, more than it would normally be, because it is this shiny, new, pretty building, occupying this beautiful location at the end of the lake. And people have seen it coming and been interested, and there is a fair amount of pent up demand. But, once the newness factor wears off, and once Disney moves on to Reflections, so that Riviera is no longer the newest, most impressive thing, then I think a lot of owners and potential owners will re-evaluate their thoughts on the desirability of Riviera.

Agreed the new and shiny will fade, but good dining and convenience of transportation keep the shine on a lot longer. So much will depend on the Skyliner and the restaurants. Other resorts do access the Skyliner but the walk to the station and convenience of lines will matter too. The trek from the Nemo rooms at AoA to the middle of the bridge is a warm one.

Is there any info/speculation about whether Riviera will have dedicated buses to MK and AK? Or how many rooms will have fireworks views?

 

[carli_h]

Is there any info/speculation about whether Riviera will have dedicated buses to MK and AK?

It is my understanding that there with will be Riviera only buses to MK and AK.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

That is the key question. If DRR has similar demand to BCV than the restrictions on resale won't matter.

True but I'd be surprised if demand is as high. I didn't expect people to be as convinced as they are that DRR is an "Epcot" resort. We don't think of VWL as being intimately connected to MK despite the Ferry, which is probably as legitimate a connection as the gondolas. And Boulder ridge resells for nothing even close to BCV or even BWV. So not sure how DRR would be at all convincing on the resale market as an Epcot resort

 

[katandmouse]

True but I'd be surprised if demand is as high. I didn't expect people to be as convinced as they are that DRR is an "Epcot" resort. We don't think of VWL as being intimately connected to MK despite the Ferry, which is probably as legitimate a connection as the gondolas. And Boulder ridge resells for nothing even close to BCV or even BWV. So not sure how DRR would be at all convincing on the resale market as an Epcot resort

Good point, and I agree about the transportation.
However, BRV is a 2042 resort so it’s getting compared to CCV 2068 now. And RIV is 2070 vs 2042...
It’ll be really interesting after 2042 when they resell BCV2 and BWV2, whatever they end up doing with them. Because I can see demand being really high for them, and pricing to match... So would that help or hinder RIV resales who knows... depends on whatever other restrictions they’ve thought up in the meantime.
(I know me personally, I’d rather buy BCV2 and just start saving up now for it lol.)

 

[kboo]

It is my understanding that there with will be Riviera only buses to MK and AK.

I hadn’t even considered that point, since we usually split stay with an MK resort. But that would make the buses much more convenient, too.

(I know me personally, I’d rather buy BCV2 and just start saving up now for it lol.)

I would love to have a shot at BWV2 or BCV2, but I’m a little too young for BWV/BCV1 and a little too old to wait for v. 2

 

[katandmouse]

So would that help or hinder RIV resales who knows... depends on whatever other restrictions they’ve thought up in the meantime.

Plus by then the resale restrictions will apply to the other new resorts too, so it’ll be like the new normal - it’ll basically affect all resales, no matter where you purchase. So by 2042 it’s not going to affect RIV more than others...
The more I think about this, the more I have to agree with the posters who’ve said I don’t like the direction DVC seems to be going, but I don’t think it will have a huge effect on resales, or if it does, all resale prices would drop, not just RIV.

 

[Katie L]

True but I'd be surprised if demand is as high. I didn't expect people to be as convinced as they are that DRR is an "Epcot" resort. We don't think of VWL as being intimately connected to MK despite the Ferry, which is probably as legitimate a connection as the gondolas. And Boulder ridge resells for nothing even close to BCV or even BWV. So not sure how DRR would be at all convincing on the resale market as an Epcot resort

Pretty sure the analysis of capacity has already been done somewhere on this board - but I think continuous capacity of the gondolas is going to be significantly more than the ferry...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Good point, and I agree about the transportation.
However, BRV is a 2042 resort so it’s getting compared to CCV 2068 now. And RIV is 2070 vs 2042...
It’ll be really interesting after 2042 when they resell BCV2 and BWV2, whatever they end up doing with them. Because I can see demand being really high for them, and pricing to match... So would that help or hinder RIV resales who knows... depends on whatever other restrictions they’ve thought up in the meantime.
(I know me personally, I’d rather buy BCV2 and just start saving up now for it lol.)

You have to think back to when VWL was the only DVC within shoutin’ distance of the MK. It was periodically marketed as an MK Resort. There weren’t a lot of people that bought in to that - if it wasn’t on the monorail it wasn’t a true MK Resort. I too have been surprised by the statement that Riviera is an Epcot Resort. That’s using a whole different definition than I ever would apply to “Epcot Resort”.

 

[summerw]

True but I'd be surprised if demand is as high. I didn't expect people to be as convinced as they are that DRR is an "Epcot" resort. We don't think of VWL as being intimately connected to MK despite the Ferry, which is probably as legitimate a connection as the gondolas. And Boulder ridge resells for nothing even close to BCV or even BWV. So not sure how DRR would be at all convincing on the resale market as an Epcot resort

Barring the gondolas suffering from the lack of a/c or too much shut down from weather, I don’t think the gondolas will be on the same level as the ferry. We LOVE the access to the boats and ferry at the Poly but they also shut down in some weather and most importantly don’t run continuously. I think it will be the ability to walk up to the gondolas and not have to wait as you do for a bus or boat that will make the Skyliner an Epcot resort in that way. Of course there will be lines but probably shorter leaving Riviera than most stations.

 

[katandmouse]

You have to think back to when VWL was the only DVC within shoutin’ distance of the MK. It was periodically marketed as an MK Resort. There weren’t a lot of people that bought in to that - if it wasn’t on the monorail it wasn’t a true MK Resort. I too have been surprised by the statement that Riviera is an Epcot Resort. That’s using a whole different definition than I ever would apply to “Epcot Resort”.

So then instead of comparing RIV to BCV or BWV, maybe a comparison to CCV would be better? I don’t think CCV resales have been on the market long to enough to see where those prices will settle. But at the least CCV resale restrictions vs RIV resale restrictions look very different, so in that respect it’s hard to imagine RIV will go for a higher price.

 

[Madame]

For me personally it’s not just to-park transportation. Wandering over to the BW pizza window, eating bkfst in France after wandering through the IG, ESPN club Trattoria Al Forno, Flying Fish, ice cream at B&C or AH Creamery.

EP is our least favourite park. On our last 2 trips drunks spilled alcohol on one DS and were screaming near the UK pavilion about matter I can’t mention here. However, we still love BCV. Wandering over to CBR (which is my favourite of the mods and values by the way), cannot compare. Speaking of CBR, is it to be classified an EP resort now? AoA? Pop?

 

[crvetter]

True but I'd be surprised if demand is as high. I didn't expect people to be as convinced as they are that DRR is an "Epcot" resort. We don't think of VWL as being intimately connected to MK despite the Ferry, which is probably as legitimate a connection as the gondolas. And Boulder ridge resells for nothing even close to BCV or even BWV. So not sure how DRR would be at all convincing on the resale market as an Epcot resort

You have to think back to when VWL was the only DVC within shoutin’ distance of the MK. It was periodically marketed as an MK Resort. There weren’t a lot of people that bought in to that - if it wasn’t on the monorail it wasn’t a true MK Resort. I too have been surprised by the statement that Riviera is an Epcot Resort. That’s using a whole different definition than I ever would apply to “Epcot Resort”.

So then instead of comparing RIV to BCV or BWV, maybe a comparison to CCV would be better? I don’t think CCV resales have been on the market long to enough to see where those prices will settle. But at the least CCV resale restrictions vs RIV resale restrictions look very different, so in that respect it’s hard to imagine RIV will go for a higher price.

I would say DRR is as convenient to Epcot/HS as the VGF and PVB (probably more so because less people will use the gondolas than monorails) are to Epcot/MK but no one has a problem referring to VGF and PVB as MK resorts.

If we use the same definition as everyone uses for an Epcot resort (must be able to walk) then the only MK resort would be CR and BLT. So I’m always confused when people feel it won’t count as an Epcot/HS resort when it’s as convenient as the monorail resorts if the the skyliner works (which I’m sure it will).

Pretty sure the analysis of capacity has already been done somewhere on this board - but I think continuous capacity of the gondolas is going to be significantly more than the ferry...

I believe it’s estimated to be between 4-5k per line bidirectional. Disney I’m fairly certain has already been claiming it’s as much capacity as each monorail line.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I would say DRR is as convenient to Epcot/HS as the VGF and PVB (probably more so because less people will use the gondolas than monorails) are to Epcot/MK but no one has a problem referring to VGF and PVB as MK resorts.

If we use the same definition as everyone uses for an Epcot resort (must be able to walk) then the only MK resort would be CR and BLT. So I’m always confused when people feel it won’t count as an Epcot/HS resort when it’s as convenient as the monorail resorts if the the skyliner works (which I’m sure it will).

I believe it’s estimated to be between 4-5k per line bidirectional. Disney I’m fairly certain has already been claiming it’s as much capacity as each monorail line.

I can hear the train whistles from VGF and Poly and see the park right across the water. Across the water from Riviera is what? It's not Epcot. So on the reverse, I don't understand calling it an Epcot resort. That's marketing only IMO.

 

[crvetter]

I can hear the train whistles from VGF and Poly and see the park right across the water. Across the water from Riviera is what? It's not Epcot. So on the reverse, I don't understand calling it an Epcot resort. That's marketing only IMO.

My comments were in response to comments based on transportation as limiting it to being non-Epcot. I mean BW and BC face each across the water and the IG doesn’t have a thing super unique when walking to it (well the skyliner will be changing and making it a bit more unique, walking up and seeing the cabins as entering I think that will be cool) and HS is a long walk with a view of buses when approaching the park. Though I agree the MK resorts are a bit unique in that everything centers a lake which makes the view easy. And if the skyliner is effective and become iconic it will elicit the emotions the monorails do eventually too (perhaps even enhancing the emotions at BC and BW to a higher level for some not just DRR).

As for DRR, you can see HS and Epcot from roof top restaurant (and some rooms) easily and both sets of fireworks will be visible from the grounds. And from a transportation perspective, the point I wanted to make, it checks similar boxes as the MK monorail resorts, just as convenient unique transportation (with the same capacity as a monorail and on average will probably have less wait times)

 

[dvcsince93]

What DVD did regarding DRR was sad- they had spent 25 years-going back to the beginning of OKW- talking about how DVC was different, and ultimately they ignored existing covenants to eliminate one of their favorite talking points- they restricted certain points to preclude them from trading into other DVC resorts. They had other options and chose the easiest.

DVD was also clear from the beginning that you should buy into resorts you want to reserve-when OKW opened, it was easy as, at the time, it was the only DVC resort. DVD told us that there was no guarantee that any more resorts were coming. Even as DVC resorts were added over the last 25 years, that point was still presented-Don't buy based on the thought that you can always stay elsewhere.

It seems that some people didn't follow that advice. It is unclear how widespread it is, but it does help explain the increasing demand for the smaller resorts, such as BCV, and VGF despite the much larger number of SSR and AKV resale contracts sold at cheaper price/point. (I would also be interested in knowing how frequently people stay at their home resort but I will say that I haven't see alot of complaints by people with BLT/BCV points that they can't get into SSR/OKW/AKV.)

Be clear, I am not saying that any purchaser is wrong or evil or whatever (and I hope that Disney really isn't saying that), but I do believe that the reservation system seems out of whack and DVD was not alone in creating the situation that all of us are facing.

Finally, the restrictions don't seem to be significantly influencing DRR sales, at least at the beginning, as more DRR deeds (851) were recorded in the first 35 days of recordation than CCV (529) and almost as many as PVB (859) when it opened. If that continues, the system ain't going back.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

What DVD did regarding DRR was sad- they had spent 25 years-going back to the beginning of OKW- talking about how DVC was different, and ultimately they ignored existing covenants to eliminate one of their favorite talking points- they restricted certain points to preclude them from trading into other DVC resorts. They had other options and chose the easiest.

DVD was also clear from the beginning that you should buy into resorts you want to reserve-when OKW opened, it was easy as, at the time, it was the only DVC resort. DVD told us that there was no guarantee that any more resorts were coming. Even as DVC resorts were added over the last 25 years, that point was still presented-Don't buy based on the thought that you can always stay elsewhere.

It seems that some people didn't follow that advice. It is unclear how widespread it is, but it does help explain the increasing demand for the smaller resorts, such as BCV, and VGF despite the much larger number of SSR and AKV resale contracts sold at cheaper price/point. (I would also be interested in knowing how frequently people stay at their home resort but I will say that I haven't see alot of complaints by people with BLT/BCV points that they can't get into SSR/OKW/AKV.)

Be clear, I am not saying that any purchaser is wrong or evil or whatever (and I hope that Disney really isn't saying that), but I do believe that the reservation system seems out of whack and DVD was not alone in creating the situation that all of us are facing.

Finally, the restrictions don't seem to be significantly influencing DRR sales, at least at the beginning, as more DRR deeds (851) were recorded in the first 35 days of recordation than CCV (529) and almost as many as PVB (859) when it opened. If that continues, the system ain't going back.

I wouldn't say people who bought at one resort and would like to stay elsewhere are necessarily to blame. DVC may have been very upfront with OKW and there being no more resorts but their sales pitches over the years have varied quite a bit. Even recently they pull out the AKV point charts and highlight trading into the low point value rooms. And they rarely mention they sell all resorts to new buyers, just the current ones they are promoting "but you'll be able to stay any where you want".

 

[sky2823]

The thing the scares me as well about riviera is that if the gondolas are successful, the plan would be to link the entire resort via gondola. If that happens, and everything is connected. The value of being linked by the gondola becomes commoditized (like being on the bus line). What does that mean to rivieras value? large, low themed, not walking to anywhere. Can’t walk to anything, no animals and fort wilderness...