Predictions for Dec 2024 Incentives?

[Sandisw]

Just anecdotally throwing this out there: think the next round might be an above average incentive so they can also spin it as a get in before the price rises in Feb.

The incentive that are out now go until the price increase so this is it it until after the price gone up.

 

[Brob2132]

The incentive that are out now go until the price increase so this is it it until after the price gone up.

I stand corrected! I guess that’s what the carrot is then. Surprised they didn’t double up on the motivation.

 

[disneylandtour]

I stand corrected! I guess that’s what the carrot is then. Surprised they didn’t double up on the motivation.

I agree, these incentives are pretty weak. The only thing DVD has going for this round is that the resale market is abysmal right now. Each morning I check CCV and BLT, and go, nope, nope, nope, and nope. (And I recall that time, two years ago, where I told a broker that a counter of $135 was too high for Poly resale, but I'd do $130--and then that contract sold to someone else. Good times!)

I would say that odds are good that we're moving into a period of inflation again. I'm actually unsure how this will play out on resale. On the one hand, inflation might raise all prices, including DVC resale in the short term. On the other, inflation might make it so that Disney vacations are even more expensive, meaning that more want to sell DVC contracts, as the accommodations are only one part of an over all vacation (flight, tickets, food, transportation, etc.), thereby lowering resale prices as the market absorbs more contracts with likely (in a modest-to-high inflation period) fewer buyers. I'm very open on thoughts on how to parse this out. I have no interest in making this into a political conversation, only an economic one. So maybe we can put those opinions aside. But if the new administration institutes financial and trade policies that produce inflation as a byproduct, what is the most likely short term (i.e. two year) effect on DVC resale prices?

 

[sarahlord]

As I’ve been looking at various resale contracts I’ve been thinking there’s got to be some value to be able to put a direct purchase on a credit card.

There are quite a few 0% CC offers out there with at least one offering 0% on purchases for 21 months…..

I don’t need the extra points right away so if I rented the points out and use the rental income to pay down some of the CC

also buying before the end of December cuts down on the 2024 dues right?

 

[Sandisw]

As I’ve been looking at various resale contracts I’ve been thinking there’s got to be some value to be able to put a direct purchase on a credit card.

There are quite a few 0% CC offers out there with at least one offering 0% on purchases for 21 months…..

I don’t need the extra points right away so if I rented the points out and use the rental income to pay down some of the CC

also buying before the end of December cuts down on the 2024 dues right?

Right now, the mos you are paying for 2024 dues is 17 days if buying today.

 

[Cfabar1]

People that do acquire financing for DVC seem to acquire better rates through a HELOC if I remember correctly from people talking about.

HELOC is one way to do it...

Balance Transfers are another common way people do it - though they typically come with a 3% or 4% fixed fee, at least there is no compounding...

Disney Visa also can provide up to 9 months of interest free payments... So you could in theory do 9 months on Disney Visa, then switch to a balance transfer card for say 18-24 months or so (if you can find one that long) and potentially have close to 3 years to make payments with a minimal hit in terms of interest payments... Say 3% on the portion you didn't pay for initially... And in theory you could invest in some sort of way including low risk options that might outperform that 3% charge...

Just saying there are lots of ways to finance the cost of a DVC contract cost effectively.

I would personally not finance a 12 year contract at 17%... I'd have a hard enough time justifying a 1 year contract at 17%... And, as you can see from above, I am not in the "never finance" camp. At current prices, and at the current points charts, many families would be unlikely to pay outright in one bill a 400 point Polynesian contract (which is around the equivalent of what the original 270 Point OKW contracts would need for parity).

 

[Cfabar1]

Regarding cost of ownership - it isn't the initial buy in....

Our direct VGF contract in essence equaled in terms of the initial price 1/3 buy in; 2/3 dues. That buy in cost is going to stay stagnant, dues are going to only go up...

Put another way....

OKW contract in 1991 sold for about $50/pp (rounding for easy numbers) or about $1 pp/py. Dues, even at that time were about $2.50.

Now, that original owner has their $1 initial buy in for the "fixed" part of their contract... 2025 dues will be $10.50 at OKW... Completely different equation....

The notion that DVC is a "check" on inflation is true I suppose, but only to a certain extent, and only when compared to cash rates... You will be paying more every year...

 

[bakerr6]

Our family only owns resale. We plan on purchasing direct for the annual pass benefits, along moonlight magic.

We welcome the annual increases if they are offset by direct incentives, as it should in theory help boost resale values as well. Our resale contracts are all under 100 points so in theory, we should be insulated from the additional incentives for others considering direct on small contracts.

We were in the ballpark for 150 direct, but may switch to 200-250 depending on incentives after the increase. If incentives go up, I would be happy to take a slight hit for less contracts and unrestricted points

 

[SugarSweetLee]

As I’ve been looking at various resale contracts I’ve been thinking there’s got to be some value to be able to put a direct purchase on a credit card.

There are quite a few 0% CC offers out there with at least one offering 0% on purchases for 21 months…..

I don’t need the extra points right away so if I rented the points out and use the rental income to pay down some of the CC

also buying before the end of December cuts down on the 2024 dues right?

I got about $1700 in cashback and new card incentives by opening several accounts to self-finance our DVC purchase in June. All 0% interest for 15 months as well, so a little extra interest earned on the funds before we have to pay out vs just doing cash.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I got about $1700 in cashback and new card incentives by opening several accounts to self-finance our DVC purchase in June. All 0% interest for 15 months as well, so a little extra interest earned on the funds before we have to pay out vs just doing cash.

Which bonus offer cards did you use? It is so rare to find a bonus that also includes extended 0% interest!

 

[SugarSweetLee]

Which bonus offer cards did you use? It is so rare to find a bonus that also includes extended 0% interest!

Chase Freedom Unlimited, Wells Fargo Active Cash, Bank of America Unlimited Cash Rewards were the main ones I think.

 

[Patmcpsu]

I agree, these incentives are pretty weak. The only thing DVD has going for this round is that the resale market is abysmal right now. Each morning I check CCV and BLT, and go, nope, nope, nope, and nope. (And I recall that time, two years ago, where I told a broker that a counter of $135 was too high for Poly resale, but I'd do $130--and then that contract sold to someone else. Good times!)

I feel that CCV and BLT are steals right now. I coincidentally made an offer on Poly about 2 years about for about $130/pt and was laughed out. The response email (which I still have saved) said $156/pt minimum, and they referenced this page: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-december-2022/

Coincidentally, on that page it had BLT and CCV each around $160/pt at the time. I can’t see them going much lower than they currently are, but that being said, I see more inventory starting to accumulate…

 

[Cfabar1]

I feel that CCV and BLT are steals right now. I coincidentally made an offer on Poly about 2 years about for about $130/pt and was laughed out. The response email (which I still have saved) said $156/pt minimum, and they referenced this page: https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-december-2022/

Coincidentally, on that page it had BLT and CCV each around $160/pt at the time. I can’t see them going much lower than they currently are, but that being said, I see more inventory starting to accumulate…

I think BLT peak was around $190/pp.

 

[Sandisw]

I think BLT peak was around $190/pp.

I sold one in 2021 for $189.

 

[sarahlord]

Chase Freedom Unlimited, Wells Fargo Active Cash, Bank of America Unlimited Cash Rewards were the main ones I think.

I caved and called my guide for 100 direct poly points so I could use a 0% APR credit card instead of buying resale. Also don’t like the resale restrictions….

I did get a $500 military incentive which essentially brought the price down to 215 a point. I also got a bonus year of point I think, I’m getting 2024 points but only paying 2wks of dues. He got me an October use year which is different than my original use year, I hope I don’t kick myself later for doing that….

Now my conundrum is do I rent these extra points and use that money to pay down the contract? Sort of like my own magical beginnings or do I try and use them

 

[lmf77]

I was looking at the history of resale prices and for the majority of the resorts, the price was high while interest rates were low and then went down as interest rates increased. That makes sense. Interest rates go up because of inflationary pressure. Plus a lot of people finance so higher rates make it more expensive. For a discretionary item like DVC, I’d expect lower prices during a higher rate environment. The same probably applies to direct purchases. So if inflation stays higher than the FED is aiming for and they stop lowering rates, I would think incentives would be decent next year. Not as good as this year but better than where they are now. And resale prices should stay about the same too.

 

[eticketplease]

I was looking at the history of resale prices and for the majority of the resorts, the price was high while interest rates were low and then went down as interest rates increased. That makes sense. Interest rates go up because of inflationary pressure. Plus a lot of people finance so higher rates make it more expensive. For a discretionary item like DVC, I’d expect lower prices during a higher rate environment. The same probably applies to direct purchases. So if inflation stays higher than the FED is aiming for and they stop lowering rates, I would think incentives would be decent next year. Not as good as this year but better than where they are now. And resale prices should stay about the same too.

Unfortunately DVC will not be lowering prices.

If you want just a few more points incentives will not help to lower that price either.

Also figure in there is no financing on contracts under 50 points so rates don’t really factor in here unless you’re financing with a third party.

 

[Sandisw]

I caved and called my guide for 100 direct poly points so I could use a 0% APR credit card instead of buying resale. Also don’t like the resale restrictions….

I did get a $500 military incentive which essentially brought the price down to 215 a point. I also got a bonus year of point I think, I’m getting 2024 points but only paying 2wks of dues. He got me an October use year which is different than my original use year, I hope I don’t kick myself later for doing that….

Now my conundrum is do I rent these extra points and use that money to pay down the contract? Sort of like my own magical beginnings or do I try and use them

When you buy direct, you always get the current UYs points and dues are based from the date you purchase…

Since we are in the Oct 2024 UY, those are the first year of points.

Resale treats dues different…they encourage buyers to pay for the year if getting points. But direct charges you based on when you buy them because that’s when you become an owner of that deed.

Example. You could buy this same contract in July, you’d still get the 2024 points and you’d only only 6 months of 2025 dues.

Sounds like a great buy!

 

[CastAStone]

I think BLT peak was around $190/pp.

Which is why the direct price went so high.

Whoops.

 

[CastAStone]

I was looking at the history of resale prices and for the majority of the resorts, the price was high while interest rates were low and then went down as interest rates increased. That makes sense. Interest rates go up because of inflationary pressure. Plus a lot of people finance so higher rates make it more expensive. For a discretionary item like DVC, I’d expect lower prices during a higher rate environment. The same probably applies to direct purchases. So if inflation stays higher than the FED is aiming for and they stop lowering rates, I would think incentives would be decent next year. Not as good as this year but better than where they are now. And resale prices should stay about the same too.

All of that is true if you just look at 2019-2024 and ignore the 15 years prior, when prices were fairly disconnected from interest rates

The financing bit doesn’t track though, as Monera, who finance most DVC resale loans, has not changed their interest rates *at all* over the last 4 years, despite the broader market conditions.