Part of the CFW sales problem? Points chart is too low (opinion)

[tidefan]

To expand on this, there are clearly identifiable elements that should be more expensive: housekeeping (dogs and distance between rooms), transportation (sprawling resort), HVAC energy (no shared walls), insurance, and maybe some plumbing/roadwork/electrical maintenance.

To be fair, they are collecting $30 to $50 each night for a dog stay, so I would think those funds would help.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

To be fair, they are collecting $30 to $50 each night for a dog stay, so I would think those funds would help.

That’s like 2-3 points worth of dues right there.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Can you imagine the uproar from existing owners if they were to jump like $1 per point? Holy smokes.

9.06 to 9.53 was a tough pill for VDH owners to swallow, could you imagine if it were a full dollar spike, oof.

 

[AwfulWaffle]

To be fair, they are collecting $30 to $50 each night for a dog stay, so I would think those funds would help.

And not even giving them a worthless in room bunkbed to sleep on

 

[zavandor]

To expand on this, there are clearly identifiable elements that should be more expensive: housekeeping (dogs and distance between rooms), transportation (sprawling resort), HVAC energy (no shared walls), insurance, and maybe some plumbing/roadwork/electrical maintenance.

But comparing other resorts, CFW is definitely higher per sqft but I don't think CFW cabin maintenance costs (per cabin, per year) are that much of an outlier despite the known cost inflators. I probably need to take a follow-up look at this based on net square footage, but I'll start with it by room below.

A CFW cabin is ~7800 points for the year. At $12.15 in dues for 2024, that's ~$95k to maintain one cabin for a year. That sure sounds like a lot (maybe even more than the unit purchase cost...), but here's 2024 single-room maintenance figures of other resorts:

• Saratoga Std Studio - $43k
• Old Key West Studio - $48k
• Bay Lake Tower SV Studio - $50k
• Grand Flo SV Studio - $58k
• Riviera SV Studio - $61k
• Poly SV Studio - $65k
• Grand Flo LV Studio - $69.5k
• Riviera PV Studio - $77k
• Poly PV Studio - $78k
• Grand Flo TPV Studio - $86k
• Saratoga Std 1BR - $88.5k
• CFW '1BR' Cabin - $95k
• Bay Lake Tower SV 1BR - $95k
• Aulani Ocean View Studio - $97.5k
• VDH Garden Studio - $98.5k
• Old Key West 1BR - $102k
• Beach Club 1BR - $111.5k
• Riviera SV 1BR - $131k

And all the above resorts, except CFW, have bigger/grander rooms whose maintenance costs I'm guessing scale below linearly with square footage (which would, theoretically, under-represent the cost of maintenance for the smaller rooms at those resorts, albeit likely slightly).

CFW's per-room yearly maintenance costs are basically inline with the lower end of 1BRs, which is how they're positioning it otherwise. But its point chart is well below that. If they had matched the points chart of the lower end of 1BRs, even adopting the lowest end OKW/BWV-SV points chart, it would have put an average week at around 200pts/wk and dues at a palatable ~$9.20/pt (less than OKW and right around AKV's $9.08/pt).

If anything, I think this reinforces my opinion that they got the points chart wrong.

I agree that the cabins are to be expected to have higher MF in all the categories you've listed.
However, I don't agree with your conclusion. What would a higher point chart accomplish? An owner willing to buy enough points for a stay for a week will still have to pay the same amount of fees (lower MF per point, but more points). The only result would be they have to spend more upfront.

I cannot see any advantage for people interested in the cabins from an higher point chart. Unless you say DVC should increase the point charts AND sell the points with a huge discount, to keep the upfront cost the same. But we have seen DVC doesn't want to do that. Selling "moderate" points at "moderate" price that exchange 1:1 with "deluxe" points opens a very risky situation. And for what, sell out a resort they can easily rent for cash anyway? I wouldn't do it, if I were in them.
CFW will never sell out, some people who want home priority advantage in certain highe demand periods will buy a few points (it's still a discount over cash rates), this will pay for the replacement of all cabins and DVC will happily sell for cash the remaining cabins. And other DVC owners will be happy too, because an exchange at 7 months is a good deal, this will take some points off the system from other resorts, increasing overall availability. Everyone win.

 

[Minniemoo15]

What happens if they can’t fill these things consistently with cash owners? It’s not like the cabins in the past were hard to book (outside of a few weeks per year) - the few times we stayed there I was easily able to get one pretty last minute, usually at a good discount making it comparable to a moderate resort.

So if these things sit empty… who is left holding the bag? Could this negatively affect other (non CFW) DVC owners?

 

[stevehudd]

What are restricted points worth tied to the cabins? More than vero/HH for sure, but more than Sarasota? I dont think so. They would have to lower per point cost to 90-100 range to goose sales and that would disrupt the whole ecosystem they have built.

 

[Sandisw]

To expand on this, there are clearly identifiable elements that should be more expensive: housekeeping (dogs and distance between rooms), transportation (sprawling resort), HVAC energy (no shared walls), insurance, and maybe some plumbing/roadwork/electrical maintenance.

But comparing other resorts, CFW is definitely higher per sqft but I don't think CFW cabin maintenance costs (per cabin, per year) are that much of an outlier despite the known cost inflators. I probably need to take a follow-up look at this based on net square footage, but I'll start with it by room below.

A CFW cabin is ~7800 points for the year. At $12.15 in dues for 2024, that's ~$95k to maintain one cabin for a year. That sure sounds like a lot (maybe even more than the unit purchase cost...), but here's 2024 single-room maintenance figures of other resorts:

• Saratoga Std Studio - $43k
• Old Key West Studio - $48k
• Bay Lake Tower SV Studio - $50k
• Grand Flo SV Studio - $58k
• Riviera SV Studio - $61k
• Poly SV Studio - $65k
• Grand Flo LV Studio - $69.5k
• Riviera PV Studio - $77k
• Poly PV Studio - $78k
• Grand Flo TPV Studio - $86k
• Saratoga Std 1BR - $88.5k
• CFW '1BR' Cabin - $95k
• Bay Lake Tower SV 1BR - $95k
• Aulani Ocean View Studio - $97.5k
• VDH Garden Studio - $98.5k
• Old Key West 1BR - $102k
• Beach Club 1BR - $111.5k
• Riviera SV 1BR - $131k

And all the above resorts, except CFW, have bigger/grander rooms whose maintenance costs I'm guessing scale below linearly with square footage (which would, theoretically, under-represent the cost of maintenance for the smaller rooms at those resorts, albeit likely slightly).

CFW's per-room yearly maintenance costs are basically inline with the lower end of 1BRs, which is how they're positioning it otherwise. But its point chart is well below that. If they had matched the points chart of the lower end of 1BRs, even adopting the lowest end OKW/BWV-SV points chart, it would have put an average week at around 200pts/wk and dues at a palatable ~$9.20/pt (less than OKW and right around AKV's $9.08/pt).

If anything, I think this reinforces my opinion that they got the points chart wrong.

The dues due pay for more than just maintenance so the cost of transportation and maintaining all the grounds has to be a decent amount…and what the share is would be interesting as to whether that makes a difference.

 

[Sandisw]

What happens if they can’t fill these things consistently with cash owners? It’s not like the cabins in the past were hard to book (outside of a few weeks per year) - the few times we stayed there I was easily able to get one pretty last minute, usually at a good discount making it comparable to a moderate resort.

So if these things sit empty… who is left holding the bag? Could this negatively affect other (non CFW) DVC owners?

DVD is responsible for the cost of any units not yet declared into the trust association.

Once declared, the cost is paid by owners who bought into it.

Where it could benefit DVC is in trades if they declared but not sold.

If these are popular with non owners and they get booked up, that can leave rooms open in the other resorts…which means breakage could end up higher for DVC to rent for cash stays.

As I said, I think they have a longer term plan for these and at this point, have made the price less attractive because they are not at a point where they care if sales are strong.

With PVB tower coming on line, they had to know this won’t sell in comparison to that…plus, I do wonder if it’s a construction aspect and they can’t declare more than they are 100% sure will be ready for occupancy.

 

[Cfabar1]

What are restricted points worth tied to the cabins? More than vero/HH for sure, but more than Sarasota? I dont think so.

I'm not so sure that they are more desirable than Vero/HH... Those offer a variety of room types, and allow the points to be spent at other resorts at WDW... resale cabin points mean, you can stay at a cabin.... at one singular type of cabin.... it's the epitome of a restricted resort at that point... the only flexibility is the time of year you can stay in your cabin....

I'm wondering if Disney Parks & Resorts decided to pawn this off as an accounting trick and bury the replacement cost of the cabins... And if they sell some points, great.... A few reasons why I think cabins haven't sold well:

1. Lack of King Bed in the master bedroom
2. Bunk beds create no privacy for the master bedroom
3. lack of amenities
4. People are buying DVC for deluxe accommodations, and they see that the cabins are not.
5. inability to actually you know, preview one, whether in a preview center or in person. I am amazed they have sold as many as they have without anyone even seeing anything besides a rendering.
6. Lack of in-unit W/D
7. Having to traipse through your entire cabin to use the restroom from the master bedroom
8. awkward layout even including where the TV is placed
9. limited ways to get to the parks easily - something DVC owners are always looking for
10. uncertainties about this new "trust" product...

These are all reasons that would impact sales, and then you add these huge dues and resale restrictions, and yeah, I can see why very few people are buying them.... Oh, and the fact the rooms are relatively cheap to pay for with cash to begin with - which limits the savings in real dollars as well as percentages....

I remain convinced Disney doesn't really plan on these cabins selling out anytime soon...

 

[CarolynFH]

I'm wondering if Disney Parks & Resorts decided to pawn this off as an accounting trick and bury the replacement cost of the cabins... And if they sell some points, great.

I wonder the same thing. Whether or not Reflections (River Country Lodge?) comes to be, having the cabins belong to DVC benefits DPR’s bottom line. Especially in times of reduced demand, as we saw after 9/11 and during Covid - even if they’re sitting empty, those DVC owners are on the hook for maintenance and operations expenses.

 

[Massachusetts]

I remain convinced Disney doesn't really plan on these cabins selling out anytime soon...

I agree - there is very little chance this was some kind of mistake. There must be a plan.

When DVDC launches a new resort do they not have to provide a notice of how the dues are calculated? Something similar to the Notice of Annual Meeting that breaks down how the dues are calculated.

 

[AnnaKristoff2013]

They think sales are going to increase or they’d rather have non-owner members book cabins and rent out Saratoga rooms?

This is entirely possible. I'd wager that Saratoga studios and 1 bedrooms rent easier than CFW cabins. Certainly CFW cabins were usually some of the last rooms available for cash rentals on Disney's cash-booking side, amongst all room types.

 

[CarolynFH]

I agree - there is very little chance this was some kind of mistake. There must be a plan.

When DVDC launches a new resort do they not have to provide a notice of how the dues are calculated? Something similar to the Notice of Annual Meeting that breaks down how the dues are calculated.

They have to provide a Budget showing how they arrived at the figures. The annual budgets for existing DVC resorts do arrive with the Notice of the Annual Meeting but are in fact a separate document, and each owner receives the budget for only the resorts they own, not for all DVC resorts. For instance, we receive only the BWV budget. We rely on other sources to see the budgets for the other resorts.

IOW, people who have bought CFW points already should have received a copy of the budget that was used to calculate the published dues figure.

ETA - the 2024 budget for CFW can be found here: https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/ft-...nsportation-major-culprits-in-high-cabin-dues

 

[maui22]

I still believe Disney is planning to build and add Reflections 2.0/River Country to the CFW project. It would be similar to PVB. Only this go around, it's cabins only. In 2-4 years, they have the new building and all that goes with it. New building would 4-6 million points and have more traditional dues. That alone drops the combined association dues significantly.

Give the resort something unique like the rumored lazy river (River Country). We know Disney onsite guests like to use the pools during the heat of the day.

Doesn't need to be a project that RIV, VGF, PVB owners buy. Make this resort the Disney mini-waterpark resort similar to Great Wolf Lodge and Kalahari Resorts. Heck, they could probably sell day passes to RV guests. I know they do this in the Wisconsin Dells and I believe they also do this in Sandusky, OH.

 

[CastAStone]

I still believe Disney is planning to build and add Reflections 2.0/River Country to the CFW project. It would be similar to PVB. Only this go around, it's cabins only. In 2-4 years, they have the new building and all that goes with it. New building would 4-6 million points and have more traditional dues. That alone drops the combined association dues significantly.

Give the resort something unique like the rumored lazy river (River Country). We know Disney onsite guests like to use the pools during the heat of the day.

Doesn't need to be a project that RIV, VGF, PVB owners buy. Make this resort the Disney mini-waterpark resort similar to Great Wolf Lodge and Kalahari Resorts. Heck, they could probably sell day passes to RV guests. I know they do this in the Wisconsin Dells and I believe they also do this in Sandusky, OH.

The Reflections property is a mile and a quarter from the closest cabin. It’s not going to fix the amenity issue. What you’re describing is basically the same dump-the-garbage scheme that led to the 2007-08 financial crisis - they bundled garbage loans with good ones to make CDOs that they sold as if they were AAA rated stuff when underneath 30% of the loans were trash. If you buy whatever they do with the River Country site (which will be smaller in scale than reflections due to site issues) for that new property and it’s bundled with the cabins, you're taking on and paying for their garbage.

 

[maui22]

The Reflections property is a mile and a quarter from the closest cabin. It’s not going to fix the amenity issue. What you’re describing is basically the same dump-the-garbage scheme that led to the 2007-08 financial crisis - they bundled garbage loans with good ones to make CDOs that they sold as if they were AAA rated stuff when underneath 30% of the loans were trash. If you buy whatever they do with the River Country site (which will be smaller in scale than reflections due to site issues) for that new property and it’s bundled with the cabins, you're taking on and paying for their garbage.


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I didn't realize the distance, but I still think it's something Disney will do. Looking at the map, they have a number of options on that property.

Google shows OKW 1401 Old Turtle Pond Rd, Orlando, FL 32836 to Olivia's Cafe is a 14 min walk. Granted this is shorter, but it's still a distance most people opt for the internal bus.

Personally, I would use a golf cart at CFW/River Country, but I consider it part of the fun of camping.

 

[Cfabar1]

If you buy whatever they do with the River Country site (which will be smaller in scale than reflections due to site issues) for that new property and it’s bundled with the cabins, you're taking on and paying for their garbage.

This cannot be restated enough! I've never understood the argument that people would love to buy that resort to subsidize the cabins essentially...

I'm also skeptical that making the cabins a new properties equivalent of the Bungalows is a winning argument... Arguably a full DVC property would offer studio accommodations and 1 br accommodations... which would defeat the purpose of the cabins, it's not at all like the Poly bungalows which offer[ed] a room category at the resort not available otherwise for DVC point usage. Also, unlike the cabins at CCV or the bungalows at Poly, these are not more luxurious accommodations they are worse accommodations than everything that will be at Reflections except for, arguably, the studios, which, if they are part of one site, will likely be fewer points than the cabins, further limiting the appeal of the cabins.

I think @CarolynFH 's comment about shifting the cost of the maintenance of the resort is a likely perk and I know that @Brian Noble has spoken about that before... The one caveat is, you actually have to sell some points to people to shift that portion of the cost...

 

[CastAStone]

I think @CarolynFH 's comment about shifting the cost of the maintenance of the resort is a likely perk and I know that @Brian Noble has spoken about that before... The one caveat is, you actually have to sell some points to people to shift that portion of the cost

Exactly!

The cabin replacement costs come off of their balance sheet *but stay on the statement of cash flows*.

And the company must periodically make reasonable reassessments of their ability to sell those cabins, and if they ever determine that it’s unrealistic that they will sell them out, they are required to move the portion of initial replacement costs they expect to retain forever back onto the balance sheet

The day-to-day maintenance costs only come off their cash flows in proportion to what they’ve sold,
since they are legally responsible for paying the remainder of it. Right now that’s such a trivial amount, and surely isn’t even covering their CFW marketing expenses (which also go through cash flows)

 

[Massachusetts]

They have to provide a Budget showing how they arrived at the figures. The annual budgets for existing DVC resorts do arrive with the Notice of the Annual Meeting but are in fact a separate document, and each owner receives the budget for only the resorts they own, not for all DVC resorts. For instance, we receive only the BWV budget. We rely on other sources to see the budgets for the other resorts.

IOW, people who have bought CFW points already should have received a copy of the budget that was used to calculate the published dues figure.

ETA - the 2024 budget for CFW can be found here: https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/ft-...nsportation-major-culprits-in-high-cabin-dues

Awesome, thank you very much @CarolynFH
What the heck is going on with the housekeeping estimates at CFW!?! Also appears ad valorem taxes are substantially higher at CFW due to larger geographic foot print. Had previously thought it was excise tax versus property tax but disboards members have assured me that permanently placed mobile homes are not subject to excise tax.

Following the train of thought that CFW is largest geographical footprint are the dues just that way because every housekeeping team needs individual transportation and can only get to 60-70% of total team service due to resupply and distance?

Disney knows the housekeeping costs of the cabins. They have been paying them for 30+ years. The also know the taxes.

After this information I am more inclined to go with the mistake theory or that the trust is the end game. I am 50/50.

If the trust is a thing then they don't expect to be selling major points here at least until Reflections. At that point they need to convince us that we are fine subsidizing dues of another property.

It will take a massive infusion of 3-4 resorts into the trust before they can get these dues into a reasonable place.