Not ROFR thread - general discussion

[PlutoNotPlanet]

May 01, 2024 my offer was accepted on my first contract at Cooper Creek. Mid August I was sitting on the beach at Aulani using my CCV points.

I actually initially booked Boardwalk on this short notice but decided I’d rather deal with heat in Hawaii than Florida. Very happy with that choice. Buuttt now I own 415 Aulani points

415 Aulani all sub? That's impressive

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If you're finding reasonably sized contracts with current-year points at $125, fantastic, you must be an excellent negotiator.

Are you factoring in the fact that Disney almost always has a 30% offer on Deluxe rooms for those cash stays? Or things like ticket offers or free dining when you book cash packages? How about time-value of money?

What category room were you considering and what was the effective nightly rate you assumed after discounts and freebies?

I factored in most of those things (didn't assume any value from ticket offers but I also have an AP). I assumed an average 25% discount from rack (way better than I've done historically over the few years I stayed before buying in), 7% return on cash, and I didn't even assume much inflation in sticker price (which historically has outpaced FFR), and it was still far better to buy a contract with 2024 points and beyond for $115/pt. I do tend to travel at least once a year over the holiday season.

 

[VGCgroupie]

415 Aulani all sub? That's impressive

Yep.

Thank you, thank you very much.

 

[ChipTheRescueRanger]

Boo there is a copper creek contract in my use year that is just out of reach financially. pain

 

[WinterSolider]

What category room were you considering and what was the effective nightly rate you assumed after discounts and freebies?

I factored in most of those things (didn't assume any value from ticket offers but I also have an AP). I assumed an average 25% discount from rack (way better than I've done historically over the few years I stayed before buying in), 7% return on cash, and I didn't even assume much inflation in sticker price (which historically has outpaced FFR), and it was still far better to buy a contract with 2024 points and beyond for $115/pt. I do tend to travel at least once a year over the holiday season.

If I'm going to commit $20,000+ on something, I'm going to use super conservative assumptions to be certain.

I used rack rate for a standard Resort View hotel room versus a Deluxe Studio and added on the cost of daily housekeeping. I assumed a 30% discount off of rack rate, 4% annual inflation on both dues and cash prices, and 10% return on cash.

Beach Club came out roughly break-even in that model but I was using a purchase price of $140 per point. If you're finding them for $115, that's fantastic.

Regardless, I think the more relevant question is "which DVC contract will yield the MOST value" rather than whether a particular contract clears break-even. I think Beach Club fans tend to get tunnel vision in this regard.

 

[atthebeachclub]

If I'm going to commit $20,000+ on something, I'm going to use super conservative assumptions to be certain.

I used rack rate for a standard Resort View hotel room versus a Deluxe Studio and added on the cost of daily housekeeping. I assumed a 30% discount off of rack rate, 4% annual inflation on both dues and cash prices, and 10% return on cash.

Beach Club came out roughly break-even in that model but I was using a purchase price of $140 per point. If you're finding them for $115, that's fantastic.

Regardless, I think the more relevant question is "which DVC contract will yield the MOST value" rather than whether a particular contract clears break-even. I think Beach Club fans tend to get tunnel vision in this regard.

The contract with the most value is almost assuredly Saratoga Springs. But that won’t reliably get me staying where I want at 7 months.

My Beach Club price was not an anomaly; that’s the market right now if you check occompt transactions. And if you run the numbers, you will find the market is surprisingly efficient when assessing value.

Also, $125/pt x 100 points is quite clearly not over $20k. I wouldn’t personally buy a large Beach Club contract. But a small one that gets you what you want is a really decent deal. 17 years is a long time to make memories.

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

I see a few pretty good deals of CCV recently. Surprisingly, they are not taken from the shelf yet.

Question for DIS Veterans, What is a reasonably good price for CCV resales under 200pts to you?

Also, is any broker collecting offers (say, a week) and then sell it to the highest one?

 

[pzw90]

I see a few pretty good deals of CCV recently. Surprisingly, they are not taken from the shelf yet.

Question for DIS Veterans, What is a reasonably good price for CCV resales under 200pts to you?

Also, is any broker collecting offers (say, a week) and then sell it to the highest one?

What is a reasonably good price for CCV resales under 200pts to you?
Personally, I'm looking for 120 and under for not stripped. They come up every now and then, and I'm in no rush.

Also, is any broker collecting offers (say, a week) and then sell it to the highest one?
Some are trying to start bidding wars. Some accept "back up offers". Some are first come first serve if ask price. Some are collecting several in a timeframe and presenting to the seller. Some are a mixture of all of these. Who does what, I wont specify as we cant talk about some of them on here.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

If I'm going to commit $20,000+ on something, I'm going to use super conservative assumptions to be certain.

I used rack rate for a standard Resort View hotel room versus a Deluxe Studio and added on the cost of daily housekeeping. I assumed a 30% discount off of rack rate, 4% annual inflation on both dues and cash prices, and 10% return on cash.

Beach Club came out roughly break-even in that model but I was using a purchase price of $140 per point. If you're finding them for $115, that's fantastic.

Regardless, I think the more relevant question is "which DVC contract will yield the MOST value" rather than whether a particular contract clears break-even. I think Beach Club fans tend to get tunnel vision in this regard.

Thanks for sharing your numbers. I definitely wouldn’t pay $140 for BCV, even though I’m confident my cash used to purchase it is not going to beat 10% after taxes (and I would be surprised if it even came close before).

To me the only risk of it being a smart financial decision in the low 100s is whether or not your life changes in a way, you can’t get to beach club and use the points there at least every couple years. Unlike SSR and CCV, the value proposition gets bad quickly if you aren’t using them at Crescent Lake.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

Thanks for sharing your numbers. I definitely wouldn’t pay $140 for BCV, even though I’m confident my cash used to purchase it is not going to beat 10% after taxes (and I would be surprised if it even came close before).

To me the only risk of it being a smart financial decision in the low 100s is whether or not your life changes in a way, you can’t get to beach club and use the points there at least every couple years. Unlike SSR and CCV, the value proposition gets bad quickly if you aren’t using them at Crescent Lake.

I completely agree. This aligns with my calcs for BWV when I purchased 150 pts fully loaded for $95 p/p. My comps were a significantly discounted rate at the Swan and even with that and the 2042 expiration I still came out ahead using BWV for Christmas Week/Spring Break.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I completely agree. This aligns with my calcs for BWV when I purchased 150 pts fully loaded for $95 p/p. My comps were a significantly discounted rate at the Swan and even with that and the 2042 expiration I still came out ahead using BWV for Christmas Week/Spring Break.

This was a very good Boardwalk buy!

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

This was a very good Boardwalk buy!

Thanks! I had nearly given up…every now and again persistence pays off

 

[WinterSolider]

Thanks for sharing your numbers. I definitely wouldn’t pay $140 for BCV, even though I’m confident my cash used to purchase it is not going to beat 10% after taxes (and I would be surprised if it even came close before).

To me the only risk of it being a smart financial decision in the low 100s is whether or not your life changes in a way, you can’t get to beach club and use the points there at least every couple years. Unlike SSR and CCV, the value proposition gets bad quickly if you aren’t using them at Crescent Lake.

I also think people tend to be a little bit doom-and-gloom about 7 month resort availability.

Of course if you *must* stay at Beach Club, during Food & Wine, in a Studio, you probably need to own there.

But looking out 7 months from now, for example, literally every single resort has availability if you have the flexibility to stay in 1 bedrooms.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I also think people tend to be a little bit doom-and-gloom about 7 month resort availability.

Of course if you *must* stay at Beach Club, during Food & Wine, in a Studio, you probably need to own there.

But looking out 7 months from now, for example, literally every single resort has availability if you have the flexibility to stay in 1 bedrooms.

That’s the thing: at BCV my family only fits in studios or 2 bedrooms. 1 bedrooms don’t work for us there due to fewer sleeping surfaces than the studios.

Of course the 2 bedrooms are fantastic, but they are obviously also more points.

 

[BlueGreen5]

We find ourselves doing a debate right now - we have too many points for our current state in life. They are SAP+ points though - we never stay at AKV. Just using resale market published prices, and rough math, 1.7 AKV points is the cost equivalent to 1 VGF or Poly point, which is where we normally stay outside of Crescent Lake (we will continue to rent at BWV and BCV because, in our opinion, the value and prices for those properties are misaligned right now). Would you consider doing an even exchange if one presented itself? For instance, would you trade 300 AKV points for 175 Poly points (assume all else, like UY, loaded points, etc. is equal)?

Here are my thoughts:

• More points is not a bad thing because historically I have always been able to rent them to cover cost -- but, what if that market dries up?
• More points gives me the option to book a 1BR; 175 points is probably not enough to consider that -- we really disllike the 1BR because of how much more they cost, but so do most people, so there's usually more late availability in that category
• Poly and/or VGF usually have decent availability at the 7-month mark and we can usually be flexible to capitalize on availability
• VGF's dues are cheaper per point, and generally less points means less dues
• Everyone always says "own where you want to stay" and we are a living contradiction to that

TIA!

 

[RuntheMouse]

We find ourselves doing a debate right now - we have too many points for our current state in life. They are SAP+ points though - we never stay at AKV. Just using resale market published prices, and rough math, 1.7 AKV points is the cost equivalent to 1 VGF or Poly point, which is where we normally stay outside of Crescent Lake (we will continue to rent at BWV and BCV because, in our opinion, the value and prices for those properties are misaligned right now). Would you consider doing an even exchange if one presented itself? For instance, would you trade 300 AKV points for 175 Poly points (assume all else, like UY, loaded points, etc. is equal)?

Here are my thoughts:

• More points is not a bad thing because historically I have always been able to rent them to cover cost -- but, what if that market dries up?
• More points gives me the option to book a 1BR; 175 points is probably not enough to consider that -- we really disllike the 1BR because of how much more they cost, but so do most people, so there's usually more late availability in that category
• Poly and/or VGF usually have decent availability at the 7-month mark and we can usually be flexible to capitalize on availability
• VGF's dues are cheaper per point, and generally less points means less dues
• Everyone always says "own where you want to stay" and we are a living contradiction to that

TIA!

I would consider the swap solely because of the dues. If you don’t want to stay in 1 beds, don’t pay the dues just so you could.

 

[PlutoNotPlanet]

We find ourselves doing a debate right now - we have too many points for our current state in life. They are SAP+ points though - we never stay at AKV. Just using resale market published prices, and rough math, 1.7 AKV points is the cost equivalent to 1 VGF or Poly point, which is where we normally stay outside of Crescent Lake (we will continue to rent at BWV and BCV because, in our opinion, the value and prices for those properties are misaligned right now). Would you consider doing an even exchange if one presented itself? For instance, would you trade 300 AKV points for 175 Poly points (assume all else, like UY, loaded points, etc. is equal)?

Here are my thoughts:

• More points is not a bad thing because historically I have always been able to rent them to cover cost -- but, what if that market dries up?
• More points gives me the option to book a 1BR; 175 points is probably not enough to consider that -- we really disllike the 1BR because of how much more they cost, but so do most people, so there's usually more late availability in that category
• Poly and/or VGF usually have decent availability at the 7-month mark and we can usually be flexible to capitalize on availability
• VGF's dues are cheaper per point, and generally less points means less dues
• Everyone always says "own where you want to stay" and we are a living contradiction to that

TIA!

If you just rent the points out around $16/pt, ignoring potential taxes, assuming market don’t dry up, I would trade for a 185-point Poly now. But if you need to use it more yourself, then it could be more financially sound to keep the 300 AKV. Also, that type of trade is theoretical since you need to pay listing fee and closing cost in reality, which can easily come to $3000 in this case

 

[lilsonicfan]

I wouldn't exchange 300 points for 175 of a different home resort unless I planned to use that home resort priority at 11 months, otherwise it feels like a premium being paid for no real value (to me). If you have been able to get what you want at or inside of 7 months, then I think the exchange you might want to consider is a smaller resale contract at AKV or other SAP resort.

 

[WinterSolider]

We find ourselves doing a debate right now - we have too many points for our current state in life. They are SAP+ points though - we never stay at AKV. Just using resale market published prices, and rough math, 1.7 AKV points is the cost equivalent to 1 VGF or Poly point, which is where we normally stay outside of Crescent Lake (we will continue to rent at BWV and BCV because, in our opinion, the value and prices for those properties are misaligned right now). Would you consider doing an even exchange if one presented itself? For instance, would you trade 300 AKV points for 175 Poly points (assume all else, like UY, loaded points, etc. is equal)?

Here are my thoughts:

• More points is not a bad thing because historically I have always been able to rent them to cover cost -- but, what if that market dries up?
• More points gives me the option to book a 1BR; 175 points is probably not enough to consider that -- we really disllike the 1BR because of how much more they cost, but so do most people, so there's usually more late availability in that category
• Poly and/or VGF usually have decent availability at the 7-month mark and we can usually be flexible to capitalize on availability
• VGF's dues are cheaper per point, and generally less points means less dues

I was in a similar situation recently and we ended up selling 300 Aulani points to purchase our first and only Direct contract when there was a really good sale on Old Key West, and netted a few thousand dollars in profit coming out on the other side. I wouldn't recommend this as a particularly wise financial strategy, but it might scratch the blue card itch for someone who is resale-only and looking to upgrade to the full suite of member benefits.

I would definitely not recommend trading SAP resale points for different, more expensive SAP resale points.

Of course we also decided we really do want some Aulani points so we ended up buying 150 Aulani resale a few months later.

• Everyone always says "own where you want to stay" and we are a living contradiction to that

Us too, except for Aulani because that's a different thing with unique considerations. I like every single resort in the DVC inventory and I'm happy to stay at whichever one happens to be available at 7 months, including Old Key West and Saratoga. We have enough total points for 1 bedrooms and really appreciate the king bed and the kitchen. We don't cook any meals except for breakfast but just the ability to make scrambled eggs in the morning gets us out the door so much faster than if we had to stop to pick something up.

Ever since the resorts started adding the fold-down murphy beds in the living rooms which have an infinitely better mattress than the old sofa beds, 1 bedrooms have been our preference.