Membership Magic Beyond

[tjkraz]

But most discounts are designed to increase revenue for Disney in the big picture.
The “savings” don’t actually decrease Disney’s revenue, depending how it’s designed.
Most discounts are really disguised upsells.

Shifting a guest from a crowded weekend to a less crowded weekday actually helps Disney’s bottom line.

Discounts that encourage people to take more trips, or add days to their ticket, increase revenues and profits.

Imagine they offered for MMB, $25 off park hoppers. That would not cost Disney $25 per person — The guest would feel like they are saving $25 per person. But it would increase the number of people buying park hoppers— and if priced correctly, round increase revenues and profits.

Essentially, discounts that are really an opportunity for Disney to sell you more things.

Disney routinely does “special ticket” types along these lines. A significant perceived savings, based on a very specifically restricted ticket.

Three general comments:

1) Programs like this involve multiple entities, all of which have some decision making authority in the finished product. At a minimum, any park ticket promo involved lengthy discussions between DVC and the Parks & Resorts heads. What we see is the result of compromise between those groups. (Apparently the Disneyland execs saw things a little differently. Maybe former DVC head Ken Potrock had something to do with that. And maybe WDW will loosen the reigns over time if they see net positive results here.)

2) On many levels, I don’t disagree with what you’ve written above. But here’s the thing: If Disney believed that lower ticket prices, or more aggressive promotions, or actively moving guests from weekends to weekdays would lead to a net increase in profits, they wouldn’t save those philosophies for a paid DVC benefits program.

3) Disney knows their theme park business better than anyone. No their decision-making isn’t infallible. But when it comes to consumer spending data…they’re holding all the cards. And we have none. For that reason alone, I have a tough time buying into the idea that we know better than Disney.

I get that Disney is a for-profit corporation. My problem isn't that Disney was "stingy." It's that this is a poorly thought out product. There are a whole host of ways they could have designed this program (and ticket offers), that increase profits for Disney AND increase perceived value for guests.
A flat 20% discount on tickets over 4 days, for example. Or let MMB members purchase Disney Pirate Pass.
Offer MMB members to buy the Disney Dining Plan at 10% off. (that would definitely increase profits for Disney, it would lead to a lot more dining revenue from DVC members). Refillable soda mugs at 50% off for MMB members when staying on-site.
10% off the price of Premier Pass, subject to availability, for MMB members.

I’m really not sure how you can claim to know the impact on both revenues and profits as a result of some of these off the cuff suggestions. Let’s talk about the mugs specifically. The mug purchase is currently $22. Hypothetically, let’s say the mug costs $1 and the average guest drinks about $5 worth of filtered water, syrup and coffee beans over the course of a trip. Disney’s profit margin is roughly $16 for every mug sold.

With a 50% discount, they still have fixed costs of $6 for the mug and product, but they’re only keeping $5 of the $11 charged. They need to sell more than 3x as many mugs just to earn the same profit. And some of those guests would have occasionally bought a coffee or soda for $5 each, and now won’t because they got their $11 mug. More profit sacrificed.

Are those numbers accurate? I dunno. You don’t know. I don’t think they’re wildly off. But the point is discounts are eliminating pure profit from the equation, and that profit has to be made up in volume. Which is often easier said than done. Will Disney sell more DDP at $87 than they will at $97? Yeah, probably. But it also means they’re keeping $10 less for every buyer. It means people who would have spent $97 are now only spending $87. It means lower profit margins on people who would have paid full price for a smaller number of meals—more revenue for sure, but the profit impact is impossible to forecast.

At the end of the day, if changes like these were such a slam dunk win for Disney, EVERYBODY would be buying $11 mugs and $87 dining plans. The idea that we can just casually play Monday morning quarterback and say “oh, if Disney just did X, Y and Z they’d be much better off” simply doesn’t ring true to me.

 

[VGCgroupie]

TAKE MY MONEY!

Yep. Take my money now I will decide next year if it provided $99 of value to me.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Oooh…. something in the fine print about the DLand tickets:

• DLR Tickets do not have to be used on consecutive dates. The price paid for a wholly unused ticket can be applied to the purchase of a new ticket with an equal or higher price. To learn more about upgrades, click HERE.
• DLR Tickets may only be purchased by the Member enrolled in the Optional Benefit Program for themselves and up to seven (7) of their immediate family living in their household, for up to a total of eight (8) DLR Tickets per the 2025 Benefit Season.

Now, whenever I have purchased tickets through a broker/agent I have been able to upgrade that ticket through Disney and it seems to always be the delta between the full retail price of the ticket I purchased and the full retail price of whatever Disney is charging.

For example, I upgraded a 5-day WDW ticket to a 6-day ticket when they moved our return flight from 8am to 8pm and it only cost an extra $20 per ticket. I purchased the tickets through getawaytoday.com before the more recent price increases and they cost difference between what I paid and direct from Disney for the extra day was greater than $20…

I wonder how this will be handled…. how much to book a discounted 3-day weekday only and upgrade to a 5-day with weekends….

 

[havoc315]

Three general comments:

1) Programs like this involve multiple entities, all of which have some decision making authority in the finished product. At a minimum, any park ticket promo involved lengthy discussions between DVC and the Parks & Resorts heads. What we see is the result of compromise between those groups. (Apparently the Disneyland execs saw things a little differently. Maybe former DVC head Ken Potrock had something to do with that. And maybe WDW will loosen the reigns over time if they see net positive results here.)

2) On many levels, I don’t disagree with what you’ve written above. But here’s the thing: If Disney believed that lower ticket prices, or more aggressive promotions, or actively moving guests from weekends to weekdays would lead to a net increase in profits, they wouldn’t save those philosophies for a paid DVC benefits program.

Exactly my point — they have special ticket promotions all the time, apart from DVC. Whether off-season, non-magic kingdom, etc.

One goal of modern business is to stratify pricing — instead of charging all customers the same price, you create opportunities for guests to pay more or less based on their cost tolerance. (Perfect example is airlines — charging more for certain coach seats than others).

So it was rather surprising — as Disney creates promotional ticket specials all the time, surprising they wouldn’t do a better one for the DVC market.

3) Disney knows their theme park business better than anyone. No their decision-making isn’t infallible. But when it comes to consumer spending data…they’re holding all the cards. And we have none. For that reason alone, I have a tough time buying into the idea that we know better than Disney.


I’m really not sure how you can claim to know the impact on both revenues and profits as a result of some of these off the cuff suggestions. Let’s talk about the mugs specifically. The mug purchase is currently $22. Hypothetically, let’s say the mug costs $1 and the average guest drinks about $5 worth of filtered water, syrup and coffee beans over the course of a trip. Disney’s profit margin is roughly $16 for every mug sold.

With a 50% discount, they still have fixed costs of $6 for the mug and product, but they’re only keeping $5 of the $11 charged. They need to sell more than 3x as many mugs just to earn the same profit. And some of those guests would have occasionally bought a coffee or soda for $5 each, and now won’t because they got their $11 mug. More profit sacrificed.

Or more likely — DVC guests are among the least likely to buy the mugs, or often buy an individual soda. They are the ones most likely to get groceries including soda delivered .

So if you increase mug adoption from 20% to 80%… even with the discount, you are doubling revenues with only a tiny increase in actual costs. (The mugs cost Disney less than a dollar each, the soda for a week costs Disney $1-2 per mug. It costs Disney under 10 cents per serving).

And since they bought the mug… more stopping by QS… leading to more frequent QS purchases, increasing revenue and profit further.

Are those numbers accurate? I dunno. You don’t know. I don’t think they’re wildly off. But the point is discounts are eliminating pure profit from the equation, and that profit has to be made up in volume. Which is often easier said than done. Will Disney sell more DDP at $87 than they will at $97? Yeah, probably. But it also means they’re keeping $10 less for every buyer. It means people who would have spent $97 are now only spending $87. It means lower profit margins on people who would have paid full price for a smaller number of meals—more revenue for sure, but the profit impact is impossible to forecast.

It is quite possible to forecast, with a fair level of accuracy. It’s what my brother does for a living.

At the end of the day, if changes like these were such a slam dunk win for Disney, EVERYBODY would be buying $11 mugs and $87 dining plans.

No… You’re missing the whole point. DDP adoption is extremely low for DVC members. Even at $87, it wouldn’t go through the roof.

You don’t give the discount to the crowds that are more likely to pay $97… you offer it to those who aren’t buying the DDP at $97… which is DVC guests.

The idea that we can just casually play Monday morning quarterback and say “oh, if Disney just did X, Y and Z they’d be much better off” simply doesn’t ring true to me.

I gave examples. I’m not saying every example is exactly correct. Maybe the mug discount would work better at 40% than 50%. Etc etc.

What I know for a fact — because Disney does such promotions all the time — there are other promotions that would both increase profits for Disney AND increase perceived value for DVC guests. No, I don’t know the exact math on which promotions. But I know that such promotions are possible.

 

[TCRAIG]

You can buy and swap from existing 7month reservations. It's tricky, so not for the inexperienced.

The key is 7 months…that’s what I was saying…

 

[tjkraz]

It is quite possible to forecast, with a fair level of accuracy. It’s what my brother does for a living.

Yes, it is very easy to forecast. By the people with access to the proper data. (The people who are not green lighting these hypothetical promotions.)

What I know for a fact — because Disney does such promotions all the time — there are other promotions that would both increase profits for Disney AND increase perceived value for DVC guests. No, I don’t know the exact math on which promotions. But I know that such promotions are possible.

You’re pretty liberal with “all the time.”

 

[nalababybear]

Are you saying, if you already have an existing reservation, you can then buy 24 OTU pts and switch them out for your regular 24 pts? I thought it had to be used on a new reservation.

As @AstroBlasters said uptrend, you make a new 7month reservation, cancel.it and then rebook the existing 7month reservation using the freed utop. That swap frees up you normal points and ideally before the banking period passes to allow max flexibility for those points.

This essentially helps bridge the period until the next addonitis cycle easier with a reduced amount of cost for the utop 24 a year....that's nearly 1/2 a small contract at a bargain price.

To me, this is the star of the MMB. All the rest are nice to haves of varying benefit.

 

[AstroBlasters]

As @AstroBlasters said uptrend, you make a new 7month reservation, cancel.it and then rebook the existing 7month reservation using the freed utop. That swap frees up you normal points and ideally before the banking period passes to allow max flexibility for those points.

This essentially helps bridge the period until the next addonitis cycle easier with a reduced amount of cost for the utop 24 a year....that's nearly 1/2 a small contract at a bargain price.

To me, this is the star of the MMB. All the rest are nice to haves of varying benefit.

Especially if you have a limited amount of direct points and want to snag a random night or two at a restricted resort at 7m.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

I love work arounds, but one thing I have learned throughout the years…

Loose lips sink ships.

Not always best to boast about these things.
Loopholes can close when advertised.

YMMV

 

[nalababybear]

I love work arounds, but one thing I have learned throughout the years…

Loose lips sink ships.

Not always best to boast about these things.
Loopholes can close when advertised.

YMMV

Not boasting. Being helpful does cause anxiety to folk maximizing their options if they are careful with their reservations. Many won't be and drop their points into holding.

Wouldn't really call it a loophole, or a bug.

Walking reservations is more problematic imho.

If these things where no financially beneficial to Disney operations or sales, it would have been closed long ago.

 

[Dfoerch]

Not boasting. Being helpful does cause anxiety to folk maximizing their options if they are careful with their reservations. Many won't be and drop their points into holding.

Wouldn't really call it a loophole, or a bug.

Walking reservations is more problematic imho.

If these things where no financially beneficial to Disney operations or sales, it would have been closed long ago.

Agreed!

 

[havoc315]

Yes, it is very easy to forecast. By the people with access to the proper data. (The people who are not green lighting these hypothetical promotions.)


You’re pretty liberal with “all the time.”

Want the long list of ticket specials they have had over the last few years?

But I think a current great example is the special military ticket:
Which includes options such as a 5 day ticket with park hopper for only $389 plus tax— with a few blackout weeks.

As we know, Disney would not be offering this “special” if it was actually costing them any money.

Or their seasonal 4-day pass of just $99 per day — again, they wouldn’t have offered such a discount if it wasn’t increasing their profits.

So yes, they offer special promotional tickets literally all the time.

 

[J-Dog]

3) Disney knows their theme park business better than anyone. No their decision-making isn’t infallible. But when it comes to consumer spending data…they’re holding all the cards. And we have none. For that reason alone, I have a tough time buying into the idea that we know better than Disney.

Well.....(cough)...Galactic Starcruiser....(cough)...

 

[havoc315]

Well.....(cough)...Galactic Starcruiser....(cough)...

Yup. First off, Disney is fallible.

But more critically… Often 1 part of Disney makes a decision without consulting other parts of Disney.

I remember when, during Covid, Disney was pushing free dining promotion for re-booking. Even as it became clear that dining would not re-open normally with the rest of the parks.

I feel like DVC announced “special 5 day ticket with pricing details to follow” before many details were ironed out. Then as MMB team started working with the ticket pricing team.. without necessarily consulting with all the finance teams, etc… this is what was worked out.
I’m always apprehensive when I see “details will follow” as danger that something being announced is only half baked.

I suspect a more appealing ticket offer could have been created if they “fully baked” it before announcing and locking themselves into a 5-day weekday ticket.

 

[Sandisw]

Want the long list of ticket specials they have had over the last few years?

But I think a current great example is the special military ticket:
Which includes options such as a 5 day ticket with park hopper for only $389 plus tax— with a few blackout weeks.

As we know, Disney would not be offering this “special” if it was actually costing them any money.

Or their seasonal 4-day pass of just $99 per day — again, they wouldn’t have offered such a discount if it wasn’t increasing their profits.

So yes, they offer special promotional tickets literally all the time.

Sure, have done specials and most times they include DVC.

The difference, though, at least IMO, is that parks and resorts gets to completely control that and decide when and if they do it.

They simply may not have wanted to commit to more than they did for the MMB program. And maybe it was because the ink was not yet settled before DVD announced it.

We can certainly discuss the different ideas that would be nice for DVD to offer, but I don’t see how those what ifs take away from the program that has been created and what owners now have as an option.

This MMB program has a lot of pluses to it and for many owners, I bet they will find it has enough value to pay $99 in 2025 to access it.

While the ticket discount for WdW is not great, there are times when it’s pretty decent when you consider the extra water park day.


For all we know, this could be a test to see how a program like this works and it will be enhanced as time goes on to have more value…with the price tag to go with it.

But for now, it certainly is a good start for adding things we don’t currently have.

ETA: I will say that the military tickets may be something that they might be fine if they lose money or the profit margin is small…

 

[havoc315]

Sure, have done specials and most times they include DVC.

The difference, though, at least IMO, is that parks and resorts gets to completely control that and decide when and if they do it.

They simply may not have wanted to commit to more than they did for the MMB program. And maybe it was because the ink was not yet settled before DVD announced it.

I strongly suspect this happened.

We can certainly discuss the different ideas that would be nice for DVD to offer, but I don’t see how those what ifs take away from the program that has been created and what owners now have as an option.

This MMB program has a lot of pluses to it and for many owners, I bet they will find it has enough value to pay $99 in 2025 to access it.

While the ticket discount for WdW is not great, there are times when it’s pretty decent when you consider the extra water park day.


For all we know, this could be a test to see how a program like this works and it will be enhanced as time goes on to have more value…with the price tag to go with it.

But for now, it certainly is a good start for adding things we don’t currently have.

ETA: I will say that the military tickets may be something that they might be fine if they lose money or the profit margin is small…

Profit margin may be smaller but they aren’t losing money.

 

[Sandisw]

I strongly suspect this happened.



Profit margin may be smaller but they aren’t losing money.

Maybe but last I knew CMs got only 10% discounts.

I just wanted to point out that they may have other reasons why they will give military special priced tickets when they wouldn’t other subsets like DVC.

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I’ve seen a lot of discussion about the ‘deal’ the OTUP will be in this offer. I didn’t see where the offer is changing the rules on purchase other than they are now a buy one get one free. Did I miss something? You can currently only buy OTUP at 7 months or less, and only if you have no points left in the current use year, and only the number of points needed to make the reservation. If you cancel a reservation, the OTUP go into the holding account and can only be used 30 days out. So how are all these members going to just buy 24 each year and roll 24 regular points? You can’t buy if you still have points to roll. And even if not, how many times are you exactly 24 points short?

 

[Mirabell Rose]

You can buy OTU points when making a reservation 7 months or less. You don’t get home resort priority with them.

You can buy them even if you have your own points left.

Current rules don’t allow you to buy if you have your own points in the current use year.

https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/faq/add-on-one-time-use-points/how-to

 

[Genie+]

I’ve seen a lot of discussion about the ‘deal’ the OTUP will be in this offer. I didn’t see where the offer is changing the rules on purchase other than they are now a buy one get one free. Did I miss something? You can currently only buy OTUP at 7 months or less, and only if you have no points left in the current use year, and only the number of points needed to make the reservation. If you cancel a reservation, the OTUP go into the holding account and can only be used 30 days out. So how are all these members going to just buy 24 each year and roll 24 regular points? You can’t buy if you still have points to roll. And even if not, how many times are you exactly 24 points short?

The purchase just needs to occur at the time you're making the reservation that requires them.

You don’t need to have no points left. You do need to be making a reservation that uses them to buy them and that reservation date must be less than 7 months away.

OTUP through MMB is a good deal. Often I book a DVC trip months before we buy airfare. Sometimes we’ll add a day to get much cheaper flights and need somewhere to sleep that first or last night. With up to 24 OTUPs at basically $10 each I’d feel much better about taking whatever DVC has left at 3 or 4 months out. I value my points over $16 each and wouldn’t love booking a single SSR pref studio night for 19pts on Sat but at $200 it’s likely the best onsite value at that point.

You could also work this OTUP deal to stretch your points further as long as you have a way to use them within 7 month availability. Say I just want to book 2 nights for my sister from FL to join us in a separate room. Instead of borrowing all those points from my next UY, I might find 2 nights at AKL for 30pts and call member services to make that reservation using 6 of my existing points and 24 OTUP for $240. Sweet! She’ll be staying at AKL for under $175/nt.