Yeeeaaah… I still stand by my philosophy that it’s too early to trust the details of the forecast - but every forecasting model out there is in agreement that a big, frigid front is expected to dip way, way down into central FL around MW. The day by day forecasts will probably keep changing because predicting exactly when a cold front will show up and just how cold it gets isn’t historically super accurate down here, but the overall trend is, well… chilly. I’m not a numbers gal, but I’d say odds of a super hot marathon are looking slim. So there’s that, at least!
50º is kind of my dividing line for running clothes choices. Under 50º gets full cold weather treatment, so my half outfit is currently looking like:
Thermal tights. SO glad I bought myself a new pair recently!
Thin long sleeve top under a thin short-sleeve top (because thin is the only kind of running tops I own - I just layer a bunch of them as needed in the cold lol).
Cheap, but proper colorway for my costume, hoodie that can get tossed if it manages to warm up enough.
Wool beret that I previously assumed would be too warm but is the perfect headwear for my costume - but I have a back up running hat if needed.
Ear cover because the perfect wool beret does not cover my ears.
Neck gaiter.
2 pairs of cheap knit gloves, either or both of which can be tossed.
Toe warmer packs for fingers and toes.
Throwaway fleece jacket and sweatpants, because while I do also have leftover cheap blankets, the throwaway clothes stash really needs to be culled.
Mylar from some previous rD race.
I did a similar combo of items for some previous extra cold races and stayed perfectly warm until race start.
Also a reminder that this time of year, we don’t get to the daily high temp until mid-afternoon and it generally only lasts an hour or so. So when you see a low in the 30s and a high in the low 50s, you can probably assume it’ll be in the 40s through morning. And temps are likely to drop fast when the sun sets. Consider this when packing for your non-running time, too. I’ve got an ultra-light down coat that will treat me well, but need to seriously consider jeans with tights underneath or thermal running tights for marathon spectating…