We were at DL Saturday 1/4, and I currently have the following Saturdays reserved: 1/11, 1/23, 2/1, 2/8, 2/15. 1/18 was available when I was reserving but we have other plans that day. I also have Monday 1/13 booked. As soon as we go through the gates 1/11 I’ll book 2/22, and then after I enter on 1/13 I’ll book 3/1. So far I’ve yet to cancel a reservation, but I’ll probably cancel 2/8 unless my youngest wants to come with me, since DH can’t. I also might book a Sunday in February or March and do an overnight instead of only going on Saturdays. Reservation availability was my main concern about buying a Magic Key, but long time posters here said it wasn’t likely to be a problem, and so far it hasn’t been. I expect things to be fine as long as I book in advance.
Things also change around. Kid #1 asked for pin that didn’t release until 12/17. At the time we found out (12/13), reservations for that date were full. Two days later on 12/15, DCA was available to book for 12/17, so I reserved that, and then later that afternoon DL became available for 12/17 and I modified the reservation.
I agree with LKing that there’s probably a rebound after blackouts — I know we were eager to be back at DL as soon as we could be. Also a lot of colleges aren’t back in class yet. Even my local school distract is still on break. And while the buckets are separate, Disney is probably making reservations available for people with the ticket deal.