Keeping an eye on Tropical Weather 2024

[fla4fun]

Rain expected across Florida Sunday into Tuesday or Wednesday.

Also, keep an eye on TD11 in the Pacific. It’s expected to cross through Mexico and possibly regain strength in the gulf. Would be another rain maker towards the end of the week.

According to my local news, the storm has crossed into the Gulf and the hurricane hunters will be flying out to investigate it in the morning.

Supposedly there are two systems headed our way. The first one is expected to be a big rain event, and the second (the one that crossed into the Gulf) could be as strong as a cat 1 hurricane. The first one arrives Sunday and the second is expected to arrive sometime Thursday. The second event is far enough out that the strength and location probably will change some between now and landfall (whether for the better or worse is anyone’s guess). I feel for the people in Manatee and Pinellas Counties if they get hit with another hurricane so soon.

 

[lovethattink]

According to my local news, the storm has crossed into the Gulf and the hurricane hunters will be flying out to investigate it in the morning.

Supposedly there are two systems headed our way. The first one is expected to be a big rain event, and the second (the one that crossed into the Gulf) could be as strong as a cat 1 hurricane. The first one arrives Sunday and the second is expected to arrive sometime Thursday. The second event is far enough out that the strength and location probably will change some between now and landfall (whether for the better or worse is anyone’s guess). I feel for the people in Manatee and Pinellas Counties if they get hit with another hurricane so soon.

That’s what I heard tonight too. The second probably will be more than a rain maker being a TS or Cat 1. We’ll learn more in the next few days.

 

[MommaKetch]

Following along as we’re due to arrive at WDW on Thursday the 10th

 

[Marrila]

And we now have 92L in the Gulf.

 

[hhhisthegame]

Im still hoping it won't rain out the halloween party tuesday and that in general it will stick to monday and tuesday for rain and stop by night.....but the news does keep getting worse instead of better...still hoping something changes. I guess it still only has a percentage, and it isnt 100% or anything. Fingers crossed....

We are not planning a park day tuesday anyway so if it stops by the halloween party and at least the parade still runs etc, then it should still be a fun week....Im hoping to wake up to better news, as we have our flight tomorrow.

 

[Dreams&wishes]

So what will be the worse days? I have spent a fortune for the multi pass and I want to adjust my rides.

 

[hertamaniac]

And we now have 92L in the Gulf.

And looks pretty well organized.

 

[hertamaniac]

Percentage just jumped to 70%.

https://www.fox35orlando.com/news/c...ance-forming-over-gulf-mexico-impacts-florida

 

[swummyh20]

I’ve been keeping up with this as we leave tomorrow—any locals have insight into if we are just kinda screwed (m-Th with park days, no parties) or if there’s a chance the rain will be scattered enough to try and make the most of it. Personally not worried as I’ve been many times, but traveling with a friend and her two kids who have never been and I’m starting to worry about their experience.

I booked LLMP and I’m wondering how that’s affected besides probably not even really needing it now? Ugh, my first time having this as my weather at wdw—I’ve had 90 with 100% humidity, I’ve been there when it was 40 at 8am, but the constant rain and potential for a TS make me nervous!

 

[lovethattink]

I’ve been keeping up with this as we leave tomorrow—any locals have insight into if we are just kinda screwed (m-Th with park days, no parties) or if there’s a chance the rain will be scattered enough to try and make the most of it. Personally not worried as I’ve been many times, but traveling with a friend and her two kids who have never been and I’m starting to worry about their experience.

I booked LLMP and I’m wondering how that’s affected besides probably not even really needing it now? Ugh, my first time having this as my weather at wdw—I’ve had 90 with 100% humidity, I’ve been there when it was 40 at 8am, but the constant rain and potential for a TS make me nervous!

That’s really hard to say. We don’t have a clear idea of what TL-92 (soon to be Milton) will do. Each model run shows something different; ranging from tropical storm to strong hurricane. Making landfall in the keys or pan handle. But most agreeing landfall on Wednesday somewhere in Florida.

 

[swummyh20]

That’s really hard to say. We don’t have a clear idea of what TL-92 (soon to be Milton) will do. Each model run shows something different; ranging from tropical storm to strong hurricane. Making landfall in the keys or pan handle. But most agreeing landfall on Wednesday somewhere in Florida.

Ok, thanks. I’ve already tried to warn her as best as I can but I’m not quite sure she gets it, which aligns with her not understanding how much work I’ve actually had to do to prepare for it haha! Ponchos and rain boots for the kids, my feet not a clue—what’s the typical stance on umbrellas in park?

 

[lovethattink]

Ok, thanks. I’ve already tried to warn her as best as I can but I’m not quite sure she gets it, which aligns with her not understanding how much work I’ve actually had to do to prepare for it haha! Ponchos and rain boots for the kids, my feet not a clue—what’s the typical stance on umbrellas in park?

Ponchos are hot in 90 degree weather. But umbrellas only work without wind. Even so, I prefer an umbrella. I carry a poncho from Bass Pro Shop that has a hood that ties and an umbrella in my back pack for the parks.

You might want to pack newspaper as people say to put that in wet shoes back at the room to dry them faster.

We always prepare for the worse, but hope for the best.

 

[hertamaniac]

I’ve been keeping up with this as we leave tomorrow—any locals have insight into if we are just kinda screwed (m-Th with park days, no parties) or if there’s a chance the rain will be scattered enough to try and make the most of it. Personally not worried as I’ve been many times, but traveling with a friend and her two kids who have never been and I’m starting to worry about their experience.

I booked LLMP and I’m wondering how that’s affected besides probably not even really needing it now? Ugh, my first time having this as my weather at wdw—I’ve had 90 with 100% humidity, I’ve been there when it was 40 at 8am, but the constant rain and potential for a TS make me nervous!

They just bumped development up again this AM to 90%.

We are looking at rain starting as early as tomorrow late afternoon/evening with a mid-week projection of a potential landfall on the western side of the state. The factors of speed of the storm, the direction and what could be subjected to the NE (a.k.a. dirty) side is something to consider. These storms that come in from Gulf towards Orlando are the ones that, historically, given me the most concern.

I wouldn't change your plans and somewhat welcome the cooler temperatures as highs are projected to be near 80 degrees. Just arm yourselves with rain/wind gear, multiple shoes/sneakers/sandals/etc. and make the most of your trip.

 

[hertamaniac]

So do you reckon it will be come a hurricane as well?

If I had to make a guess at this time, I think there is a >50% possibility it will. The Gulf waters are incredibly warm and, even though not directly related, this week central Florida is going to see near record high temperatures. It feels like mid-August this AM while it being the last day in September.

Aligning with this AM's updated projection(s), I think Milton is a solid possibility of a strong T.S. with a 75% chance of becoming a hurricane (based on my own, personal experiences living here for 20 years). I guessed last Monday it was >50% possibility of development and now it is officially forecasted at 90%.

 

[fla4fun]

Aligning with this AM's updated projection(s), I think Milton is a solid possibility of a strong T.S. with a 75% chance of becoming a hurricane (based on my own, personal experiences living here for 20 years). I guessed last Monday it was >50% possibility of development and now it is officially forecasted at 90%.

My guess is at least a cat 1 hurricane. I am already checking out the best evacuation route, since I am between Disney and Tampa. I am still all packed up from Helene, so I can be out of here within an hour. This is the GFS this morning. I am waiting for the 2pm update to make my stay or go decision.

 

[fla4fun]

Looks like it will be a hurricane, and will not weaken as it crosses Florida . . .

 

[japanese maple]

If flooding rains come to central Florida, hopefully not, what do they do with the animals at AK and AKL? Of course worried for everyone, but I always worry about the animals.

Please stay safe everyone. And your pets too.

 

[lovethattink]

It is now TD-14

 

[mikeuno]

Projecting a Cat 2 now...

 

[lovethattink]