Island Tower at Polynesian Villas & Bungalows

[VGCgroupie]

I’ve been mulling over Island Tower pricing. My guesses:

3. Pricing WITH incentives for existing members adding 250-300 pts will drop below $180pp (before magical beginnings) whether during the members only “pre-sale” or after the initial sales wave washes through.

Thoughts?

Im totally new to DVC.. but I think there's zero chance of $180 before MB. If it released at similar incentives we are seeing at VDH/RIV/AUL 250pts would be around $189 after MB with a starting price of $250pp. This is the price I sold myself on but Im now thinking it will not be this low.

 

[Sandisw]

That wouldn’t help as best as I can figure. Anyone getting like a May UY would still need to be started with 2024 points, whether they bought in Dec 2024 or Jan 2025.

Great question! I’ve been wondering the same.

High point charts also help with dues per point.

OTOH Poly has had no costs to replace major appliances, unclog kitchen sinks, clean under kitchen tables, supply in room laundry detergent, etc. Now they will.

Actually, the first year of points can be the calendar year the rooms open for DVC.

So, if they decided to hold off points based bookings, by delaying the addition to the condo association until 2025, they could indeed not give anyone points until 2025.

When BPK opened in 2022, thr first set was 2022 for every UY.. now I don’t see it, other than for one reasons…DVD has to cover the shortfall of thr budget for the year…they csnt charge owners more.

So, if PVB has rooms declared for use in 2024, then all the costs will be paid by DVD…..but, if they wait until 2025, then they can build it in.

Now, I would be surprised to see that….but I do think that they will leave some UYs out of getting 2024 points.

 

[DKZB]

Im totally new to DVC.. but I think there's zero chance of $180 before MB. If it released at similar incentives we are seeing at VDH/RIV/AUL 250pts would be around $189 after MB with a starting price of $250pp. This is the price I sold myself on but Im now thinking it will not be this low.

RIV is around $178/pt now before MB for existing members @ 250 pts ( https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-incentives-largely-unchanged-for-summer-2024 ) which was similar to the initial launch price at VGF BPK. I distinctly remember everyone CONVINCEDit would be higher and it came in much lower than anyone expected. Prices on small VGF contracts had spiked to $190-$200 in advance of the launch and quickly fell. This just feels like it may be a repeat.

 

[mistysue]

RIV is around $178/pt now before MB for existing members @ 250 pts ( https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-incentives-largely-unchanged-for-summer-2024 ) which was similar to the initial launch price at VGF BPK. I distinctly remember everyone CONVINCEDit would be higher and it came in much lower than anyone expected. Prices on small VGF contracts had spiked to $190-$200 in advance of the launch and quickly fell. This just feels like it may be a repeat.

They were saying with the starting price at $250 vs the $225 Riv starting. Besides which, I'm getting $184 multiplying out the $6,000 WH + $17/pt discounts on 250 points, before closing costs.

ETA - $6,000/250 = $24/pt discount.
$24 + $17 = $41/pt total discount.
225 - 41 = 184/pt. closing is probably around $1,100 ish? which would really be another $4/pt, so about $188/pt. Sell for MB and it's $168. If that all started at $250/point it would be more like $193/pt with identical incentives.

 

[VGCgroupie]

RIV is around $178/pt now before MB for existing members @ 250 pts ( https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-incentives-largely-unchanged-for-summer-2024 ) which was similar to the initial launch price at VGF BPK. I distinctly remember everyone CONVINCEDit would be higher and it came in much lower than anyone expected. Prices on small VGF contracts had spiked to $190-$200 in advance of the launch and quickly fell. This just feels like it may be a repeat.

I hope you are right.

 

[BrianLo]

I’m also on team consistency here. VGF2 sets the model. I don’t see incentives as good as RIV, but the starting price will be the same. With inevitable direct increases (for all the on sale resorts - whether that’s immediately or next year) incentives will improve.

The ROFR, which was very successful, was all about selling the 225 direct starting price as generous (even though it’s really anything but) and it really seems to have been successful. Unlike VGF, Poly is really not a deal at these prices based on historical resale. The last few month speculative bubble notwithstanding.

There’s a lot of points they need to move for the new tower competing against the ticking time bomb that is its own resale market. Which is already fairly sizable and maturing.

 

[DKZB]

I agree with your math seems like theirs is wrong

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

VGF2 was an inexpensive flip of existing hotel rooms they couldn’t sell. PVB2 will be a custom built new tower of very in demand room types, many of which they can easily rent for cash to the rich Disney families who like to stay at Poly. I would be surprised if it’s anywhere close to current RIV pricing for the first year.

 

[Sandisw]

RIV is around $178/pt now before MB for existing members @ 250 pts ( https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...-incentives-largely-unchanged-for-summer-2024 ) which was similar to the initial launch price at VGF BPK. I distinctly remember everyone CONVINCEDit would be higher and it came in much lower than anyone expected. Prices on small VGF contracts had spiked to $190-$200 in advance of the launch and quickly fell. This just feels like it may be a repeat.

The one difference is that base price for RIV and AUL when VGF went for sale was $207, compared to VGfs sold out price of $255..

Now, we have base price of RIV, AUL, and CFW at $225, with VDH at $239, and PVB sold out price is $250.

i do think because the difference is much smaller, and given current pricing, I don’t think we will see something like that because those of us who believed BPK would start at $207, did so because it would match the base price of the others.

So, my guess is $239 before incentives.

 

[BrianLo]

So, my guess is $239 before incentives.

I can see some argument for 239, since there is a product already there. They absolutely cannot put the base price 25$ above RIV (250). It simply won’t sell at all after the initial frenzy. And the whole reason I felt like they bothered to go down the same association route was to sell small add on contracts to existing Poly owners, to upgrade their room sizes.

The delta between todays (overspeculated) resale at 170-180 and a base price of 225 is also a lot different than the 190 VGF was legitimately selling for at the time with a 207 base price. So even if they go with less supported 225, it’s already far less of deal than VGF2 started at.

 

[accm]

What I could see them doing, is offering a weak initial incentive, while RIV has a better incentive. I think Poly has enough demand that they can sell a decent number of points at a higher price, while people who aren't as concerned with home resort, can pick the "cheaper" RIV option. If cash sales for the Poly are strong, I can see them continuing to discount RIV to sell that out, while being ok with Poly being mostly left for cash guests.

 

[Cabius]

What I could see them doing, is offering a weak initial incentive, while RIV has a better incentive. I think Poly has enough demand that they can sell a decent number of points at a higher price, while people who aren't as concerned with home resort, can pick the "cheaper" RIV option. If cash sales for the Poly are strong, I can see them continuing to discount RIV to sell that out, while being ok with Poly being mostly left for cash guests.

It's still bonkers to me that the direct market places so little value in the years remaining on a contract. You get 10% fewer lifetime points with a PVB contract!

I can see DVC guides spinning that as a reason that RIV is a better deal, but I think for most buyers that date is so far in the future that it just doesn't matter.

And given the shocking durability of 2042 contract values.... maybe they're not wrong?

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

I wonder if RIV is the right comparable to new Poly Tower sales, considering the Poly's lack of resale restrictions, existing association, lower dues, etc? Going to guess that DVD knows the resale restrictions on RIV are a factor in new point sales and consider that when designing incentive programs to compensate... and maybe they know those factors are different for new Poly tower point sales?

ETA: I will guess the new Poly Tower over/under price per point before MB at $200, because DVD knows they don't need to sell quick (thanks to cash bookings), and don't want to either because the new Tower will create even more excitement in the year after it opens.

 

[ClipperDerek]

L
2. Portals
You’ve shown us for the first time (that I’ve seen) that there are recessed windows and door at the portals, and railings in front. This means they very well could be outdoor observation areas!!

. IMO Disney is doing this right recognizing the sort of thing (like Top of the World) that their customers want!

Let’s hope they don’t restrict these areas only to blue card holders. Lots of resale folks pay their annual dues just like everybody else and should be able to enjoy this area too. Same goes for TOTW lounge. I own BLT but I’m not allowed to
Use part of the property I own.

 

[Phatscott25]

Let’s hope they don’t restrict these areas only to blue card holders. Lots of resale folks pay their annual dues just like everybody else and should be able to enjoy this area too. Same goes for TOTW lounge. I own BLT but I’m not allowed to
Use part of the property I own.

Dues don't pay for the lounge at BLT.

 

[Sandisw]

Let’s hope they don’t restrict these areas only to blue card holders. Lots of resale folks pay their annual dues just like everybody else and should be able to enjoy this area too. Same goes for TOTW lounge. I own BLT but I’m not allowed to
Use part of the property I own.

The dues don’t fund those areas though which is why they can limit them. They are commercial spaces leased out. TOWTL is being funded by DVD to have the space for those eligible for membership perks.

The POS explains it. We will have to see how the updated POS documents classify all the different areas of the new project. They certainly can make something commercial space that gives no right to owners to access.

We shall see.

 

[kilik64]

Eh im still team $250 starting price, with incentives getting you down to $225ish to start.

Swing for the fences, they can always adjust with incentives, I think it still sells like crazy at $250.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Let’s hope they don’t restrict these areas only to blue card holders. Lots of resale folks pay their annual dues just like everybody else and should be able to enjoy this area too. Same goes for TOTW lounge. I own BLT but I’m not allowed to
Use part of the property I own.

Unfortunately (or fortunately depending on how you look at it), they have to make some “valuable” differences between direct and resale membership. Otherwise, why would anyone ever buy direct? The value maybe nominal but all the little perks add up to convince some to buy direct. FOMO is a powerful motivator. DVD recognizes that and funds these commercial spaces for specifically that reason.

 

[DonkeyHoTay]

FOMO is a powerful motivator.

Sure is... I would have bought my points resale if it weren't for my FOMO on direct access to new resorts.

 

[maui22]

It's still bonkers to me that the direct market places so little value in the years remaining on a contract. You get 10% fewer lifetime points with a PVB contract!

I can see DVC guides spinning that as a reason that RIV is a better deal, but I think for most buyers that date is so far in the future that it just doesn't matter.

And given the shocking durability of 2042 contract values.... maybe they're not wrong?

Wouldn't VGF (2064) and RIV (2070) have been a bigger issues with the lifetime of points? That was closer to 15%.
PVB is 2066 so only 4 years fewer than RIV.

I could see DVD using the exact same alternative best incentives between PVB and RIV that they did between VGF and RIV. @Sandisw pointed out dozens of times that whichever resort sold better between VGF and RIV was driven by the incentives 1-2 months earlier.

Based on DVCNews May sales report, RIV has roughly 30 months of sales to go. My guess is 2+ years of the boards over analyzing every month of sales, much like they did with VGF and RIV.