Increased value at BWV or BCV?

[Minniemoo15]

That's so exciting. You are going to love it. I agree with the ACTUAL price per point when you also factor in the number of years on the contract being too high for BCV. That's why we chose AKL. We felt it was the best value per point, and if it turned out we needed to stay there, as things were booked up at 7 months out, we would never be disappointed staying there as a home resort.
Hope all the rest of the process goes smoothly for you. It's tough waiting.

Thanks! I feel like Disney is going to ROFR it, since we got it for $103 a point which seems low. But we had to try. The next 30 days are going to be so long!

 

[Katie L]

Thanks! I feel like Disney is going to ROFR it, since we got it for $103 a point which seems low. But we had to try. The next 30 days are going to be so long!

AKV? That seems on the low end of maybe. Lol.wishing you luck!

 

[RaymOOOnd]

For me the 2042 expiration for many resorts is the elephant in the room.
Whatever they do, they have to stagger the release time, because you don't want the them all getting extended or whatever they decide to do then.

I could see them holding back BCV or BWV(not both), and maintaining it for cash reservations, as I think there is enough demand to get 90% cash reservations without risk. I think it's very true for BCV.
I know towers aren't well loved, but I also see another tower occupying at least a partial footprint of a current DVC epcot location. I don't think they are worried about a tower obscuring our view of the Swan or Dolphin.

My views on this are so all-in over-the-place it's embarrassing, as I used to harp to my wife on what a waste it would be financially to buy the early-expiration resorts. But lately I'm thinking, even for us 36yr olds, in 24 years we'll be 60....so...

I suppose there's a small chance that we'll still be all about going to BRV or BCV at that point, but I think much more likely is that we'll be ready to move on in favor of novel DVC resorts or other vacations entirely.

 

[Dtw002]

We are in the same boat, bought 3 years ago at BCV once SWGE was announced and knew prices would rise. A big selling point for me was 2042 and eventually maintence fees would end. There is a great resale market now, but didn’t want to take the chance there would not be in the future and have to pay fees until 2057.

 

[IAmDis]

Taking a trip in May and told the gf that we will look at what DVC resorts we like the best. I'm betting on BWV via resale is what I will shoot for. It's the most prime location, really. Pretty sure this trip will cement my decision on purchasing BWV this summer and another smaller contract for BWV by 2022.

It's walkable to two parks, has maybe 9-10 restaurant options that are also walking distance, including Swan/Dolphin, along with a host of other entertainment options. My only other want is BLT, and that would be the only resort I would consider due to its proximity to MK and other Monorail resorts, but idk, BWV, BCV is where it's at. My sis has AKV (and loves it) as her home resort, but I couldn't even imagine being that far away from so many resort options. The 2042 is great, as long as you get in on a contract by 2022, so you get a full 20 years on this one contract. Hopefully at the 10yr mark, I would start looking elsewhere.

 

[AdamsMum]

I'm not sure resale prices will continue to rise, aside the artificially high point DVC has set as their direct price. I think they've done that to steer us towards Riviera. IMO price and value are two different things, though. I do think they will be more difficult to book definitely at 7 months, and even at 11 months as walking reservations increases. I'm not too happy about that, as I travel solo a lot and boardwalk view and standard view studios are what I'd rather book.

 

[Kaufeegurl]

We bought BCV in October for its location and pool. We have stayed at many resorts but we love being able to walk to Epcot and HS. SAB is a real plus for large family vacations. We bought resale and got an incredible deal. We already have member privileges from an SSR purchase years ago so that did not factor into the equation. The length of contract was also not a concern as we will get a nice ROI after 24 years of vacations. I truly subscribe to the "buy where you want to stay" theory - especially because it is getting extremely hard if not impossible to book the more popular DVC resorts 7 months out.

 

[TexasChick123]

I’m very interested to see if the resale price moves at all once the next direct price increase comes in June. Guides are now confirming this will happen on June 1st, but I haven’t heard the actual prices yet. If anyone has, please share.

 

[ScubaCat]

I’m very interested to see if the resale price moves at all once the next direct price increase comes in June. Guides are now confirming this will happen on June 1st, but I haven’t heard the actual prices yet. If anyone has, please share.

The guides are most likely wrong about that. The direct price goes up every mid-January. The June price increase is just the CCV "sold-out" price of $210, which we were all told about in the email DVD sent out.

 

[PoohBears#1fan]

I bought at BCV in 2002 and must admit that much as I love it, I 'think' I'll sell my BCV points at some point. I didn't buy to sell and we've had 17 years worth of amazing vacations from them, but they just seem worth SO much more than we paid (I'm in the UK so we also bought at a very favourable exchange rate that we no longer have) that my business head is screaming to me that I'd be mad NOT to sell when they're up in value & the £UK is down so much, as surely, surely, there will come that point when they start to drop.

We added on at CCV last year, ultimately as an investment to pass onto the kids, but to use until they're ready/able to take them over, I'm certainly not ready to let go of them yet.

 

[ScubaCat]

I didn't buy to sell and we've had 17 years worth of amazing vacations from them

I treat the points as something I bought to use, not an investment. It's hard to overlook the ability to sell, but you are giving up something for that big check. I'd probably sell if it were up to me, but DW would throw me out of the house (or worse!) and we do enjoy our vacations there, so my decision is pretty easy. The current price point is surprising, though, to say the least!

 

[Frederic Civish]

Has anyone thought about this? Boardwalk expires in 2042. (As do BC and BRV.) For the last few years, the value of Boardwalk Villa contracts will be decreasing year by year. In the last 2 or 3 years, they will have ZERO value. Okay. Then Disney takes them back and says, "Hey, have we got a deal for you! Only $245 a point!" Of course, it will now be extended to 2092 (just thinking about that date makes my head hurt). Clearly, based on past performance, it will be 'worth it.' BUT, will there be any psychological impact, based on the fact that just the year before, it was worth ZERO?

 

[ziravan]

Has anyone thought about this? Boardwalk expires in 2042. (As do BC and BRV.) For the last few years, the value of Boardwalk Villa contracts will be decreasing year by year. In the last 2 or 3 years, they will have ZERO value. Okay. Then Disney takes them back and says, "Hey, have we got a deal for you! Only $245 a point!" Of course, it will now be extended to 2092 (just thinking about that date makes my head hurt). Clearly, based on past performance, it will be 'worth it.' BUT, will there be any psychological impact, based on the fact that just the year before, it was worth ZERO?

in 2042, the following resorts come "due":

Vero Beach
Hilton Head
BWV
BCV
BRV

OKW is extended to 2057; that's a done deal regardless if owners opted to extend or not.
Most likely, DVC divests itself of Vero Beach and Hilton Head in 2042.

But. That leaves 3 resorts that must be redone and sold at the same time. That's a tall order, both to take three resorts out of the system at the same time, to renovate three resorts at the same time, and to resell them all at the same time.

BWV opened in 1996
Wilderness Lake (BRV) opened in 2000
BCV opened in 2002

After this point, DVC began extending the end dates on resorts to give them 50 full years.

But.

BWV was sold with only 46 years avail
BRV was sold with only 42 years avail
BCV was sold with only 40 years avail

My guess is that DVC will eventually offer extensions to give each of these resorts 50 full years and that will allow them to take each resort out of commission in rotation in order to renovate them and resell them such that they can do so one at a time:

BWV to 2046, BRV to 2050, BCV to 2052.

This would also allow them to use the 2042 date to divest themselves of Vero Beach, Hilton Head and to deal with the OKW disaster (owners with different end dates, one being in 2042) and its impact on the whole system without having to deal with these three resorts at the same time.

 

[ziravan]

IF DVC learned its lesson from extensions, it will extend the ground lease and offer an extension at a set price and require that all owners either pay that price now or the price comes due upon sale. The only points DVC "gets back" in 2042 would be from owners at the time of the extension that neither buy the extension nor sale before 2042 (to a new owner that would be required to buy the extension).

That would be a very small group of owners. Unlike the OKW disaster, we've moved closer to the 2042 dates. The ability to extend BWV by four years, BRV by 8 years, and BCV by 10 years would likely be viewed as a benefit to current owners, either to extend their personal use or their value to sell. If not current owners, it would be a considered a valuable accommodation for sell:

If you were buying resale (or direct for that matter) today, would you rather consider buying a BCV resort that ends in 2042 or 2052? Would you pay $2/year or $20/point more for those 10 years?

BCV has 3 million or so points. If DVC sold extensions for 80% of those points (either now or before 2042 in resale required purchase), that would be $50 million dollars in sales, the effective cost of renovating the resort in 2052. Even BWV, with almost 5 million points at $8/extension ($2/year for 4 years) at 70% sales would still give DVC $30 million to renovate, a huge head start on their 2046 renovation of BWV.

This would solve multiple problems, the chief of which is to clear the 2042 logjam.

I think extensions along these lines are going to happen, not because DVC is magnanimous or otherwise considerate of owners, but because it works to their advantage, both to unblock the 2042 jam and to provide the seed money for the renovations of these resorts at their new prospective (50 year) end dates.

 

[DaveNan]

It is still 23 years away, and DVC leadership could have a different view by then, but given the current leadership actions I have low expectations.

Each resort has monies set aside from our dues for maintenance, repairs, and renovations. They will either need to go on a spending spree to spend all the reserves or lower our MF the last few years. They could start major "renovations" at one resort in 2039, one in 2040, and one in 2041. The skeptic in me even has the membership paying for the "renovations", since we still own it and are staying there. The theming could even be a departure from the current theming. Then in 2041 they start to sell the "new resorts" and the theming makes sense.

 

[TexasChick123]

If we have learned anything, it’s that DVC rarely does what we think they’ll do. They also don’t always do what makes the most “sense” to us. I would think they’ll simply do whatever makes them the most money. My prediction is that these renovations will not be very extensive and won’t take a lot of time. Then, they’ll just resell the points at $300pp or something in 2042. It’s truly impossible to predict because a lot will depend on the economy at the time.

 

[AdamsMum]

BCV has 3 million or so points. If DVC sold extensions for 80% of those points (either now or before 2042 in resale required purchase), that would be $50 million dollars in sales, the effective cost of renovating the resort in 2052. Even BWV, with almost 5 million points at $8/extension ($2/year for 4 years) at 70% sales would still give DVC $30 million to renovate, a huge head start on their 2046 renovation of BWV.

Do you really have faith that management is this forward thinking? I don't believe they have as much knowledge as people on these boards, nor are they as committed to their product. IMO their only thought is about how much money they can get out of it now. Given they have a product that has a history of selling very well (except Aulani), I don't see the logic in some of the restrictions added in the past few years.

It is still 23 years away, and DVC leadership could have a different view by then, but given the current leadership actions I have low expectations.

I agree with you, unless the people who are in control start to take a look into the future, they're going to have a big mess on their hands. I don't think anyone has thought about the repercussions of the restrictions on Riviera.

Anyway, I'll be 85 in 2042 and glad I'm not leaving my maintenance dues bill to my kids.

 

[skier_pete]

I feel fairly confident they will NOT extend BCV and BWV. They will restructure those resorts to higher point values on par with BLT/VGF/Poly. (Looking at increasing per point night costs 20-30%.) They can't do that under current contract but starting a brand new contract they can.

 

[wnielsen1]

I feel fairly confident they will NOT extend BCV and BWV. They will restructure those resorts to higher point values on par with BLT/VGF/Poly. (Looking at increasing per point night costs 20-30%.) They can't do that under current contract but starting a brand new contract they can.

I agree. Also, if any of the 2042 resorts is a candidate to extend, I think it will be VWL. They could even extend it until it lines up with CCV expiration, then redo the entire resort in 2068.

 

[skier_pete]

I agree. Also, if any of the 2042 resorts is a candidate to extend, I think it will be VWL. They could even extend it until it lines up with CCV expiration, then redo the entire resort in 2068.

Yeah, I didn't say that, but I could see that as a plan. Bring BRV up to speed quality wise and sell extended contracts matching CCV.