Increased value at BWV or BCV?

[suebeelin]

Wondering whether Galaxys edge will further increase the price of BCV and BWV despite the 2042 end date.

If not the actual resale cost, then at least the rental price?

I feel so lucky that I chose BWV 8 yrs ago when it was the high maintenance fee stepchild

 

[RamblinWreck]

Possibly, though the addition of Riviera may cancel that out.

My concern with BWV and BCV is that the end dates of those contracts hasn't hurt their resale values yet. 24 years still seems like a really long time I guess. I would bet that there's going to be some magic number (maybe when they get below 20 years? 15 years?) where the end date is going to suddenly shift from a "non-issue" for buyers to a "BIG ISSUE" and prices will plummet.

 

[DduzDis]

I could see a 5 year bump or so, but I do agree that at some point the end date will become a factor. We are closing on a BWV contract now and just plan to hold it until expiration. If something happens and we have to sell it, we will just deal with it at that time.

I would think the resale rules on Riviera would keep it from putting much pressure on BWV or BCV. But, sadly most that buy at Riviera will probably not be aware of resale at all and especially not the recent changes to resale regarding Riviera.

 

[Turn the Page]

Possibly, though the addition of Riviera may cancel that out.

My concern with BWV and BCV is that the end dates of those contracts hasn't hurt their resale values yet. 24 years still seems like a really long time I guess. I would bet that there's going to be some magic number (maybe when they get below 20 years? 15 years?) where the end date is going to suddenly shift from a "non-issue" for buyers to a "BIG ISSUE" and prices will plummet.

This. We love BCV but the end date makes it a complete non starter for us.

 

[ScubaCat]

I'd rather have 24 years where I want to stay vs. 48 years wishing I were somewhere else. That said, at $225pp (!! ) it absolutely has to be taken into consideration.

 

[Minniemoo15]

BCV is 100% our favourite resort but with the high cost and limited years left we can’t justify it. Also what I love most about BCV is the quiet walk to Epcot... I worry this is a thing of the past with the gondolas opening. We are looking into purchasing AKV, which we enjoy and would be happy to stay at - especially with the price and years left

 

[gharter]

when our kids were younger, we loved the BC. Now that the kids are grown, we love BWV.
Its wonderful to be able to walk to HS or EPCOT. And walking to EPCOT for F&W is even better.
I suspect there will be a bump for afew years at least as soon as SWGE completely opens.
The Riviera may make some dent in that. But the direct purchase price vs resale, I think will swing a lot of the sales to BC and BWV.

 

[iheartglaciers]

I'd rather have 24 years where I want to stay vs. 48 years wishing I were somewhere else. That said, at $225pp (!! ) it absolutely has to be taken into consideration.

That's what we said when we bought BWV (resale though!). None of our trips would be complete without staying at least a couple days there, so it's worth every penny... even if it costs us a bit more My guess is that the price will drop around the 10 year point, but really who knows.

 

[Frederic Civish]

Possibly, though the addition of Riviera may cancel that out.

My concern with BWV and BCV is that the end dates of those contracts hasn't hurt their resale values yet. 24 years still seems like a really long time I guess. I would bet that there's going to be some magic number (maybe when they get below 20 years? 15 years?) where the end date is going to suddenly shift from a "non-issue" for buyers to a "BIG ISSUE" and prices will plummet.

I could see a 5 year bump or so, but I do agree that at some point the end date will become a factor. We are closing on a BWV contract now and just plan to hold it until expiration. If something happens and we have to sell it, we will just deal with it at that time.

I would think the resale rules on Riviera would keep it from putting much pressure on BWV or BCV. But, sadly most that buy at Riviera will probably not be aware of resale at all and especially not the recent changes to resale regarding Riviera.

I think that most people can't plan more than 10 years in advance. So, the expiration date probably won't start affecting it a lot, until there are only somewhere between 10 and 15 years left. But by then, even at only 10 years left, it still might give a net return on value by saving a lot of money over those 10 years. After that, you will probably see the price decrease year by year.


Everyone get ready for a new type of poster, on these boards: The screaming, unhappy, anti-Disney posters who suddenly realize that there is a resale market, but that THEIR investment is worth considerably less than everyone else's, because they bought at Riviera and DID NOT know about the Resale restrictions.

Disney will just point at the contract and say, "Hey, it's right there in the POS and you signed it." But that will just make people madder. American's have a strong sense of 'justice' and they hate it when things are 'unfair.' And that is how they will see it, going forward.

 

[CarolMN]

……................Everyone get ready for a new type of poster, on these boards: The screaming, unhappy, anti-Disney posters who suddenly realize that there is a resale market, but that THEIR investment is worth considerably less than everyone else's, because they bought at Riviera and DID NOT know about the Resale restrictions.

Disney will just point at the contract and say, "Hey, it's right there in the POS and you signed it." But that will just make people madder. American's have a strong sense of 'justice' and they hate it when things are 'unfair.' And that is how they will see it, going forward.

No doubt. However, it's very difficult to feel much sympathy for people who enter into a contract without reading/understanding it or asking a lawyer to review it on their behalf. That's especially true for purchases costing thousands of dollars.

 

[skier_pete]

I am in the same boat - there's going to be a point at which the 2042 end date makes a big difference. Probably not for another 5-10 years, but when people start thinking about "15 years left" you will see a pretty steep drop in resale prices. I think there already is SOME affect to this now - but it's only maybe $10-20. (BCV honestly should be as high as VGF with the level of popularity and the size of the resort - but I think the shorter term keeps it from getting to that price. Likewise BWV should be on par with BLT but it is again about $15-20 lower.)

What amazes me is when you look at OKW contracts - that the extra 15 years barely adds $10-20 to the contracts. I just find it astounding how little the 23 year end date affects pricing.

One place we are seeing end date have an effect - WLV vs CCV. With CCV longer life, it seems like WLV contracts have dropped to some of their lowest (relative) prices in the last few years.

 

[skier_pete]

I wanted to add another comment.

If you think about it, the Poly goes until 2066 while BCV goes until 2042.

BCV will run you about $135 a point, while Poly might run you $150 a point.

In 23 years (2042) the BCV contract will expire and be worth flat out ZERO.

The Poly will STILL have 24 years left - and by today's prices should have value in excess of $135 a point - and more likely will be much higher.

So buying a Poly contract versus a BCV contract could literally save to $135+ per point over the next 23 years.

The big question mark in all this of course is "what will Disney do for members that own at resorts like BCV? Are they really going to sell these all as new resorts in 2042? I still think you are going to see another attempt like they had at OKW, only closer to the expiration date - maybe with 10 years to go, they will offer 20 year extensions for something like $75-100 a point. We shall see. I can't imagine they want to have six entire resorts up for sale in 2042.

 

[crvetter]

The big question mark in all this of course is "what will Disney do for members that own at resorts like BCV? Are they really going to sell these all as new resorts in 2042? I still think you are going to see another attempt like they had at OKW, only closer to the expiration date - maybe with 10 years to go, they will offer 20 year extensions for something like $75-100 a point. We shall see. I can't imagine they want to have six entire resorts up for sale in 2042.

I personally remove Vero and HHI from consideration since I believe they will just sell the resorts to another owner. So we are down to BWV, BCV, and BRV and the problem with OKW that isn't technically expired just the current owners that didn't extend have signed an agreement to turn the deed back to Disney in 2042 but the resort exists until 2057. I think that is why Disney actively sells OKW in the sales office to convert those all to a 2057 expiration date (rather than DVD having a significant number of points reverted back to them).

As for BWV, BCV, and BRV my guess is BCV gets 0 extension and perhaps converts to cash rooms. Being one of the more popular resorts on the cash side and the DVC building is very small it seems feasible. As for BWV and BRV that leaves two resorts expiring at the same time. Those are the ones I'm not so sure what they do. Offer an extension to any of the 3 you piss off the other 2. They put themselves in a sticky situation. I see any extension being spun into a "presell" of a new DVC Resort with a new deed and ground lease. Since the buildings are there I suppose they can do this if they promise a full rehab on X date funded by the developer.

Though if WDW is doing as good as it is now they can afford to take the 3 resorts as cash then I'd see them resell BRV first then BWV and maybe BCV in that order.

 

[ScubaCat]

converts to cash rooms

That's the opposite of what they'd want. DVC is guaranteed near-100% occupancy year round with owners covering the maintenance. If a hotel hits 90% occupancy, it's practically a miracle.

 

[crvetter]

That's the opposite of what they'd want. DVC is guaranteed near-100% occupancy year round with owners covering the maintenance. If a hotel hits 90% occupancy, it's practically a miracle.

It is true, though I said it for BCV being at a resort that does operate very high and a small number of rooms at one of the conference centers. I didn’t suggest it across all the 2042 expiring resorts. Just I could see the capital returns on the cash side maybe greater than reselling the points, since selling DVC the profit is all realized upfront. They may resell it it’s just the last to ever get resold in my opinion since it’s worth the most on a cash basis so they might wait.

I didn’t suggest that for BWV or BRV just that Disney could afford to take on that small subset of cash rooms leaving those two as the problems. The cost of taking those on as empty building as they resell is certainly much less capital then rebuilding a single new resort so I’m sure Disney can afford to resell those two simultaneously. Though likely BRV will take much longer.

 

[ziravan]

If you bought a 2042 resort and had a baby this year, you’d own the resort until that baby graduates from college.

If you like BCV/BWV, buy there.

We did. And eventually we also bought Poly, so we have a hedge.

I can stay where we want to stay until 2042, and if we STILL want to go to WDW after 2042, then we can still stay where we want to stay until I’m 98 at Poly.

 

[skier_pete]

I feel like I posted but never answered the original question.

My feeling is that SW:GE is unlikely to have any strong impact on resale pricing. There might be a short term bump because DHS becomes more appealing of a park to visit, but I think BWV and BCV already a so high on the popularity list I don't see any boost being significant. I definitely think it will help sales at Riviera though.

 

[TexasChick123]

A few brokers told me there is already a bit of a bump in interest in BWV and BCV because of SW:GE. I agree with @skier_pete though that this may be a temporary bump. If I was going to sell, I would think the fall/summer would be a good time to sell one of those properties. Then again, if we go into a recession, all bets are off!

 

[4luv2cdisney]

If you bought a 2042 resort and had a baby this year, you’d own the resort until that baby graduates from college.

If you like BCV/BWV, buy there.

We did. And eventually we also bought Poly, so we have a hedge.

I can stay where we want to stay until 2042, and if we STILL want to go to WDW after 2042, then we can still stay where we want to stay until I’m 98 at Poly.

Great point and also our plan! Though our kids are actually already HS and college age, so our BWV contract will see us past retirement - our kids will be nearly our age and presumably already have families of their own! We are working on a 2nd contract that would certainly get any future grandkids through college (if my kids decide to keep it). It has been hard for me though to bite the bullet on a 2nd home resort. I really just want more BWV points! Maybe when the big resale "price drop" comes somewhere down the road....

 

[ScubaCat]

A few brokers told me there is already a bit of a bump in interest in BWV and BCV because of SW:GE. I agree with @skier_pete though that this may be a temporary bump. If I was going to sell, I would think the fall/summer would be a good time to sell one of those properties. Then again, if we go into a recession, all bets are off!

The only thing is that they have to keep the direct pricing above Riviera so that Riviera is the most appealing option. That's probably why BCV is at the obscene price it is. That said, people are still buying at that price, so maybe it's still underpriced. (!)