IF I were shopping for resale RIV…

[MerlinandtheMouse]

One thing I find that people forget when this debate comes up over again (and assuming the future chugs along fairly normally), the price of direct will continue to rise and drag resale with it. Even if resale restricted resorts maintain less value than their less restricted OG14, it will still be higher than $80/pt. BLT/CCV resale is currently about 40-50% of direct prices, even if restricted is another 10-15% off that, and for the sake of argument we make RIV sold out price at the same $275, that would still be $95-$100/pt. And I actually think RIV sold out will be higher than $275.

There will be dips and pauses in price change over the years but, like everything else on this planet, prices will steadily go up. It seems unlikely to us now because we already think the numbers are high but so did everyone in 1995, and again in 2005, and again in 2015, and yet prices for everything rose. I’m not saying we’ll see the resale price boom of the past where people who bought in 20yrs ago are making money off their contracts. But I do think it means restricted resale will most likely be OK, not great, but definitely ok. And although I agree that DVC won’t use ROFR to prop up the price of resorts, I do think they will have to maintain some price bottom that doesn’t create such a wide direct-resale price discrepancy. But time will tell.

 

[Girlstar30]

One thing I find that people forget when this debate comes up over again (and assuming the future chugs along fairly normally), the price of direct will continue to rise and drag resale with it. Even if resale restricted resorts maintain less value than their less restricted OG14, it will still be higher than $80/pt. BLT/CCV resale is currently about 40-50% of direct prices, even if restricted is another 10-15% off that, and for the sake of argument we make RIV sold out price at the same $275, that would still be $95-$100/pt. And I actually think RIV sold out will be higher than $275.

There will be dips and pauses in price change over the years but, like everything else on this planet, prices will steadily go up. It seems unlikely to us now because we already think the numbers are high but so did everyone in 1995, and again in 2005, and again in 2015, and yet prices for everything rose. I’m not saying we’ll see the resale price boom of the past where people who bought in 20yrs ago are making money off their contracts. But I do think it means restricted resale will most likely be OK, not great, but definitely ok. And although I agree that DVC won’t use ROFR to prop up the price of resorts, I do think they will have to maintain some price bottom that doesn’t create such a wide direct-resale price discrepancy. But time will tell.

 

[AstroBlasters]

One thing I find that people forget when this debate comes up over again (and assuming the future chugs along fairly normally), the price of direct will continue to rise and drag resale with it. Even if resale restricted resorts maintain less value than their less restricted OG14, it will still be higher than $80/pt. BLT/CCV resale is currently about 40-50% of direct prices, even if restricted is another 10-15% off that, and for the sake of argument we make RIV sold out price at the same $275, that would still be $95-$100/pt. And I actually think RIV sold out will be higher than $275.

There will be dips and pauses in price change over the years but, like everything else on this planet, prices will steadily go up. It seems unlikely to us now because we already think the numbers are high but so did everyone in 1995, and again in 2005, and again in 2015, and yet prices for everything rose. I’m not saying we’ll see the resale price boom of the past where people who bought in 20yrs ago are making money off their contracts. But I do think it means restricted resale will most likely be OK, not great, but definitely ok. And although I agree that DVC won’t use ROFR to prop up the price of resorts, I do think they will have to maintain some price bottom that doesn’t create such a wide direct-resale price discrepancy. But time will tell.

I think it tracks with cash prices of the resorts less discount and rental rates…. not as much with whatever Disney pulls out of a hat for direct pricing….

 

[DanCali]

One thing I find that people forget when this debate comes up over again (and assuming the future chugs along fairly normally), the price of direct will continue to rise and drag resale with it. Even if resale restricted resorts maintain less value than their less restricted OG14, it will still be higher than $80/pt. BLT/CCV resale is currently about 40-50% of direct prices, even if restricted is another 10-15% off that, and for the sake of argument we make RIV sold out price at the same $275, that would still be $95-$100/pt. And I actually think RIV sold out will be higher than $275.

There will be dips and pauses in price change over the years but, like everything else on this planet, prices will steadily go up. It seems unlikely to us now because we already think the numbers are high but so did everyone in 1995, and again in 2005, and again in 2015, and yet prices for everything rose. I’m not saying we’ll see the resale price boom of the past where people who bought in 20yrs ago are making money off their contracts. But I do think it means restricted resale will most likely be OK, not great, but definitely ok. And although I agree that DVC won’t use ROFR to prop up the price of resorts, I do think they will have to maintain some price bottom that doesn’t create such a wide direct-resale price discrepancy. But time will tell.

Riviera direct "sold out" will be able to access 20+ resorts. Riviera resale will be a drastically different product in functionality and cannot be used at any other DVC resort. I'm not sure that lack of flexibility translates to just a 10%-15% extra haircut over the BLT/CCV resale prices since those contracts can do so much more. And whatever RIV resale sells for today (5 years after the resort opened, and still in active sales), I just don't see it staying that way once the resort matures and you get a more steady stream of sellers.

And do resale prices really track direct prices? Did AKV resale prices drastically fall when DVC was selling a direct contracts last year in the $140s? Did they drastically rise back up now that direct prices are $200+?

In fact, if I look at this page (https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing) I see that, for most resorts resale prices today are very similar to what they were 7 years ago with a "covid bump" in the middle. The notable exceptions are the a drift down for the 2042 beach resorts (HHI and Vero), notable drifts up for VGC and PVB (the latter probably related to PIT being in the same association), and a notable drift down for RIV... But I can't really conclude from this that resale prices track direct prices as a general rule.


Source: https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing

 

[Sandisw]

Riviera direct "sold out" will be able to access 20+ resorts. Riviera resale will be a drastically different product in functionality and cannot be used at any other DVC resort. I'm not sure that lack of flexibility translates to just a 10%-15% extra haircut over the BLT/CCV resale prices since those contracts can do so much more. And whatever RIV resale sells for today (5 years after the resort opened, and still in active sales), I just don't see it staying that way once the resort matures and you get a more steady stream of sellers.

And do resale prices really track direct prices? Did AKV resale prices drastically fall when DVC was selling a direct contracts last year in the $140s? Did they drastically rise back up now that direct prices are $200+?

In fact, if I look at this page (https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing) I see that, for most resorts resale prices today are very similar to what they were 7 years ago with a "covid bump" in the middle. The notable exceptions are the a drift down for the 2042 beach resorts (HHI and Vero), notable drifts up for VGC and PVB (the latter probably related to PIT being in the same association), and a notable drift down for RIV... But I can't really conclude from this that resale prices track direct prices as a general rule.

The only thing for me to add is that if someone wants to be able to stay at RIV, with home resort priority. and it’s at a sold out price is $275, then it could very well stabilize its resale price higher than some think.

Given that is the first one, there is really no way to tell how it will work.

But, I do think we have seen there is a market for it and if you compare resale CCV right now and some of the deals that have been found IMO, the difference isn’t that large given there is only a 4 year expiration between the two and one trades to other resorts.

 

[sndral]

They will definitely be doing ROFR at some point to make easy turns to direct point demand there. There will probably also be an additional expansion into Caribbean Beach at some point whether another tower or villa buildings built or something.

Except historically when resale prices tanked (housing market bust of the ‘08 era, for example) DVC simply stopped exercising ROFR. So I see no reason for that to change in the future. DVC will be busy selling whatever new resort they’ve just built or converted.
But, I’ve given up predicting DVC’s moves, from restricted Riviera to trust cabins, the product I first bought was very different than what DVC is becoming, thus what’s happened in the past isn’t particularly helpful in predicting the future. Maybe they’ll offer a point washing scheme like Marriott to enable folks to unrestrict their points. .

 

[Girlstar30]

The only thing for me to add is that if someone wants to be able to stay at RIV, with home resort priority. and it’s at a sold out price is $275, then it could very well stabilize its resale price higher than some think.

Given that is the first one, there is really no way to tell how it will work.

But, I do think we have seen there is a market for it and if you compare resale CCV right now and some of the deals that have been found IMO, the difference isn’t that large given there is only a 4 year expiration between the two and one trades to other resorts.

Your the one that really got me not to be afraid to buy Riv and actually be happy to have that be my first direct. I was worried about possible huge losses if I were to have to resell. I remember us discussing in another thread that just because riv is easier to book now, once it's sold out and resale can only book there it's going to be tougher to book and I believe this will drive even more sales to Riv resale. I also realize that buying direct at ANY resort is going to result in a huge loss when reselling regardless. If I bought AKV right now direct for $199 well I just 50% of my money if i were to sell it and Baylake even more. So really what's the big fear, they all are resold at a huge loss anyways

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

I think it tracks with cash prices of the resorts less discount and rental rates…. not as much with whatever Disney pulls out of a hat for direct pricing….

I wouldn’t call a consistent, if questionable, increase in cost year after year as Disney pulling things out of a hat, seems a pretty obvious and deliberate (again, questionable) choice to me…but sure, let’s go with cash prices. Riviera is only behind (sometimes equal to?) VGF and Poly for cash prices and is often difficult to find cash availability. I check a few times a year and have booked a few cash rooms when we wanted a stay and didn’t have the points/room availability.

Do we think Disney will ever significantly lower their prices? And if they do, will they single out Riviera alone and not all the resorts as a whole? I said before there will be times where prices remain stagnant or even dip but the general trend for cash prices, direct prices, resale prices, ticket prices churro prices, popcorn prices, is always up. I can’t see this being different no matter how much we all dislike the restrictions.

I think if Riviera wasn’t as well regarded and well run as it is, I’d have less faith in its resale prices but for now, it’s only just slightly behind CCV; a resort of similar age and relative location to a park, better point charts and most importantly, less restricted. If that gap widens, I’d probably rethink my opinion.

 

[DanCali]

The only thing for me to add is that if someone wants to be able to stay at RIV, with home resort priority. and it’s at a sold out price is $275, then it could very well stabilize its resale price higher than some think.

Given that is the first one, there is really no way to tell how it will work.

But, I do think we have seen there is a market for it and if you compare resale CCV right now and some of the deals that have been found IMO, the difference isn’t that large given there is only a 4 year expiration between the two and one trades to other resorts.

I think if Riviera wasn’t as well regarded and well run as it is, I’d have less faith in its resale prices but for now, it’s only just slightly behind CCV; a resort of similar age and relative location to a park, better point charts and most importantly, less restricted. If that gap widens, I’d probably rethink my opinion.

I don't think these historical trends are similar at all, and I don't believe that in 4-5 years Riviera will be anywhere near where it is now, once it's in the same stage in the "life cycle".

Source: https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing

Your the one that really got me not to be afraid to buy Riv and actually be happy to have that be my first direct. I was worried about possible huge losses if I were to have to resell. I remember us discussing in another thread that just because riv is easier to book now, once it's sold out and resale can only book there it's going to be tougher to book and I believe this will drive even more sales to Riv resale. I also realize that buying direct at ANY resort is going to result in a huge loss when reselling regardless. If I bought AKV right now direct for $199 well I just 50% of my money if i were to sell it and Baylake even more. So really what's the big fear, they all are resold at a huge loss anyways

With DVC, there will always eventually be "huge losses" because the contract is guaranteed to be worthless a few decades down the road. So if a buyer buys with the idea that they (or their kid or grandkids) will hold the contract for 50 years, they really shouldn't care about the resale restrictions at all. But many buyers may initially buy with that intent only to have age, a geographic move, loss of job, divorce, death in the family, grown kids or other life issues come in the way. If/when that happens, those owners will eventually have to deal with the reality that their soon-to-be resale contracts are much less desirable by many (not all) potential buyers - it's just a fact. The flexibility of the "exchange" feature of a timeshare is too valuable to not matter much. That has to impact resale values, and it may do so by a lot.

Resale restrictions are not new, so you can take a look at other timeshare systems to see their impact over time. The Westin/Sheraton system (now part of Marriott Vacation Club) is very different but initially it had a handful of unrestricted resorts and then instituted resale restrictions for subsequent resorts. The unrestricted resorts in that system are truly unrestricted in the sense that resale deeds could exchange even into the 10-15 newer resorts that came after them. For many years, those unrestricted resorts sold for substantially more than restricted resorts on the resale market - and I mean like 5x more (although now everything there is hitting rock bottom due to skyrocketing dues). I don't think you'll see the same disparities at DVC, but there will probably be substantial price differences.

Either way, if that heart wants Riviera direct it's hard to argue with that- it's a very nice resort!

 

[AstroBlasters]

I wouldn’t call a consistent, if questionable, increase in cost year after year as Disney pulling things out of a hat, seems a pretty obvious and deliberate (again, questionable) choice to me…but sure, let’s go with cash prices. Riviera is only behind (sometimes equal to?) VGF and Poly for cash prices and is often difficult to find cash availability. I check a few times a year and have booked a few cash rooms when we wanted a stay and didn’t have the points/room availability.

Do we think Disney will ever significantly lower their prices? And if they do, will they single out Riviera alone and not all the resorts as a whole? I said before there will be times where prices remain stagnant or even dip but the general trend for cash prices, direct prices, resale prices, ticket prices churro prices, popcorn prices, is always up. I can’t see this being different no matter how much we all dislike the restrictions.

I think if Riviera wasn’t as well regarded and well run as it is, I’d have less faith in its resale prices but for now, it’s only just slightly behind CCV; a resort of similar age and relative location to a park, better point charts and most importantly, less restricted. If that gap widens, I’d probably rethink my opinion.

You are pivoting from talking about DVC prices (which is what I responded to) in aggregate to talking about RIV. Two separate topics.

Also, I think it was pretty obvious that the “out of a hat” comment was intended as humor.

Finally, I’m not why you responded as if I wrote that DVC prices will go down. I just said it tracks cash prices less discounts and not direct prices.

 

[Girlstar30]

I don't think these historical trends are similar at all, and I don't think that in 4-5 years Riviera will be anywhere near where it is now, once it's in the same stage in the "life cycle".

View attachment 943064

View attachment 943065

Source: https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing





With DVC, there will always eventually be "huge losses" because the contract is guaranteed to be worthless a few decades down the road. So if a buyer buys with the idea that they (or their kid or grandkids) will hold the contract for 50 years, they really shouldn't care about the resale restrictions at all. But many buyers may initially buy with that intent only to have age, a geographic move, loss of job, divorce, death in the family, grown kids or other life issues come in the way. If/when that happens, those owners will eventually have to deal with the reality that their soon-to-be resale contracts are much less desirable by many (not all) potential buyers - it's just a fact. The flexibility of the "exchange" feature of a timeshare is too valuable to not matter much. That has to impact resale values, and it may do so by a lot.

Resale restrictions are not new, so you can take a look at other timeshare systems to see their impact over time. The Westin/Sheraton system (now part of Marriott Vacation Club) is very different but initially it had a handful of unrestricted resorts and then instituted resale restrictions for subsequent resorts. The unrestricted resorts in that system are truly unrestricted in the sense that resale deeds could exchange even into the 10-15 newer resorts that came after them. For many years, those unrestricted resorts sold for substantially more than restricted resorts on the resale market - and I mean like 5x more (although now everything there is hitting rock bottom due to skyrocketing dues). I don't think you'll see the same disparities at DVC, but there will probably be substantial price differences.

Either way, if that hears wants Riviera direct it's hard to argue with that- it's a very nice resort!

I need to bookmark this and circle back in 5-10 years and see where we're at i think there's good arguments for both views

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Riviera direct "sold out" will be able to access 20+ resorts. Riviera resale will be a drastically different product in functionality and cannot be used at any other DVC resort. I'm not sure that lack of flexibility translates to just a 10%-15% extra haircut over the BLT/CCV resale prices since those contracts can do so much more. And whatever RIV resale sells for today (5 years after the resort opened, and still in active sales), I just don't see it staying that way once the resort matures and you get a more steady stream of sellers.

I completely agree RIV direct sold out contract is a dramatically different product to resale RIV, but that doesn’t change the fact that ultimately, price talks. And maybe there should be a caveat to this that contract size will likely play a bigger role than it has before. I think 100pt or smaller RIV contracts will hold up really well in the long run. They’ll allow some flexibility and less financial responsibility but will get people in at a price significantly below what direct will eventually be. Bigger contracts might struggle a bit more and will certainly trend lower.

Perhaps in 10yrs when all the resorts are bit older and less interesting, RIV will have a bigger drop than 10-15% off its contemporaries, but that will also put BLT at 25yrs to expiration which will also have a negative impact on its pricing, so again, maybe not as big of a difference in the end.

And do resale prices really track direct prices? Did AKV resale prices drastically fall when DVC was selling a direct contracts last year in the $140s? Did they drastically rise back up now that direct prices are $200+?

I think looking at a short term flash sale isn’t a fair assessment to what is a normal trend. And I’m talking of the historical prices of resale contracts, not just during a small window of time. The resale price, in general, for all resorts still in some level of prime, has trended up or stayed steady over time, keeping in line with direct prices or cash prices or whatever barometer people think sets these numbers.

In fact, if I look at this page (https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing) I see that, for most resorts resale prices today are very similar to what they were 7 years ago with a "covid bump" in the middle. The notable exceptions are the a drift down for the 2042 beach resorts (HHI and Vero), notable drifts up for VGC and PVB (the latter probably related to PIT being in the same association), and a notable drift down for RIV... But I can't really conclude from this that resale prices track direct prices as a general rule.

View attachment 943055
Source: https://dvcfieldguide.com/historical-resale-pricing

I think people are misunderstanding me when I say that resale prices track direct pricing. That’s probably my fault, I didn’t make it clear enough. What I mean is that your y-axis, as a whole, will shift upwards with the slow but assured increases in direct prices. As it always has. What would your y-axis numbers look like when direct prices were much lower 15 or 20yrs ago? Would resale still between $160-$130/pt? Of course not. The resorts might have a similar linear plot, but I’d wager the y-axis was much lower to reflect the direct pricing of the time. And similarly, I think the y-axis will slowly shift up, or at the least not shift much further down, as direct continues upwards.

Perhaps times have changed and this will no longer be the case but we don’t have that evidence yet. All we can go off is incomplete historical data which seems to show that as direct pricing goes up, the resale pricing shifts to stay within a similar price differential. And that Covid bump? I’d say that was the shift to match direct price increases. I wonder if we could track all 34yrs, or whenever resale first started, in one chart, we’d see other bumps.