How Long?

[Lesverts]

From Marvel Super Hero Island closing (reported by another site as a rumor) to TWDC announcing and executing Avengers Campus Florida? What gets cut from the current batch of announcements do accomplish this?

 

[LAS2AMS]

The Disney fan boys have been dreaming of this since 2009. There’s just one problem: Universal is part of a for-profit corporation and it makes a ton of money from merchandise sales, etc. Unless Disney gives it a huge cash payment, it’s not going to happen. Reportedly Disney has approached Universal about amending the contract to allow them to advertise upcoming Marvel movies/ shows in their parks but Universal’s asking price is too high.

The contract runs in perpetuity (FOREVER). The Simpsons expires in a couple years or so - almost undoubtedly we will be seeing Simpsons merchandise in the parks and Disney Springs. Maybe some characte meet and greets? Probably too past their prime for an attraction.

 

[DanBoris]

The Disney fan boys have been dreaming of this since 2009. There’s just one problem: Universal is part of a for-profit corporation and it makes a ton of money from merchandise sales, etc. Unless Disney gives it a huge cash payment, it’s not going to happen. Reportedly Disney has approached Universal about amending the contract to allow them to advertise upcoming Marvel movies/ shows in their parks but Universal’s asking price is too high.

The contract runs in perpetuity (FOREVER). The Simpsons expires in a couple years or so - almost undoubtedly we will be seeing Simpsons merchandise in the parks and Disney Springs. Maybe some characte meet and greets? Probably too past their prime for an attraction.

... and if they are looking for expansion space in Islands of Adventure, Lost Continent is already the prime location. You could even make the argument that Toon Lagoon is less relevant then Marvel so it should go next.

 

[Lesverts]

The Disney fan boys have been dreaming of this since 2009. There’s just one problem: Universal is part of a for-profit corporation and it makes a ton of money from merchandise sales, etc. Unless Disney gives it a huge cash payment, it’s not going to happen. Reportedly Disney has approached Universal about amending the contract to allow them to advertise upcoming Marvel movies/ shows in their parks but Universal’s asking price is too high.

The contract runs in perpetuity (FOREVER). The Simpsons expires in a couple years or so - almost undoubtedly we will be seeing Simpsons merchandise in the parks and Disney Springs. Maybe some characte meet and greets? Probably too past their prime for an attraction.

I use to think this way too. But universal pays a yearly licensing fee to Disney. They give their competitor money to use their competitor’s IP. Comcast now has a contract with Nintendo (amongst others) and their own IP they’ve spent a lot of money on developing and acquiring. I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility anymore. When five years ago I did. I am sure there would be some kind of negotiated transition if Universal ever went this route. But there is the chance now

 

[LAS2AMS]

I use to think this way too. But universal pays a yearly licensing fee to Disney. They give their competitor money to use their competitor’s IP. Comcast now has a contract with Nintendo (amongst others) and their own IP they’ve spent a lot of money on developing and acquiring. I don’t think it is outside the realm of possibility anymore. When five years ago I did. I am sure there would be some kind of negotiated transition if Universal ever went this route. But there is the chance now

Universal’s cut of Marvel merchandise dwarfs the fees to Disney. It’s an archaic agreement (signed over 30 years ago) that’s very favorable to Universal.

Universal is building a huge Super Mario World at its newest theme park. There’s plenty of room to incorporate additional Nintendo merchandise sales and additional shows/ attractions based on Nintendo IP at its incumbent parks. As mentioned earlier, their rights to the Simpsons expire soon and it’s probable they won’t be renewed. And besides the fact that the Nintendo agreement (merchandise cut) won’t be as favorable to Universal… can you think of any Nintendo IP that would generate more sales (on a regular basis) than Marvel?

Of course the biggest piece is that the contract is now a de facto asset to Universal. Let’s say you owned a blighted, money losing investment property that you’ve been struggling to even give away. Suddenly Disney announces they’re going to build a new theme park in that area. Are you going to give away the property to Disney because they deserve it? Or are you going to recognize that the value of the property has swelled and hold out for proper compensation?

Mommy bloggers be like ‘Disney can do so much more with Marvel than Universal - they should just give it to them.’ But Universal has a responsibility to maximize the compensation it receives for such property.

 

[bryaalre]

I don't think Universal cares right now but the land is 25 years old and could use a refresh at some point. In a perfect world, they would just update things to more popular characters and call it a day. However, any update to the land would have its limits as most MCU related material would be off limits or severely restricted. Add in the fact that if an updated Marvel land is successful, a lot of that financial success outside the parks will end up going to Disney in the form of increase Marvel popularity and merchandise, Disney+ subscriptions for Marvel content, etc.

Universal already gave up the rights to Marvel in Japan earlier this year after they and Disney could not agree on an extension (though Disney probably did not even care to negotiate as they just wanted the rights back). The perpetuity contract in Florida is obviously different as Disney has no leverage to acquire the rights back and Universal has all the power.

I don't see anything happening in the next 5 years but that land will need some TLC at some point and I can't imagine Universal will want to invest hundreds of millions of dollars on something that would be restrictive on design and could result in something that does not use the most popular parts of the IP. That park just has more dire parts of it that need updating that I can't imagine Universal touches Super Hero Land for another 10 years or so.

 

[Smugpugmug]

I REALLY don't want this to happen. Avenger's Campus (IMO) sucks and Universal's Spiderman ride is x100 times better. Universal would have 0 reason to end the contract. It favors them really heavily.

can you think of any Nintendo IP that would generate more sales (on a regular basis) than Marvel?

Pokemon? It's the highest grossing media franchise of all time.

 

[Lesverts]

Universal’s cut of Marvel merchandise dwarfs the fees to Disney. It’s an archaic agreement (signed over 30 years ago) that’s very favorable to Universal.

Universal is building a huge Super Mario World at its newest theme park. There’s plenty of room to incorporate additional Nintendo merchandise sales and additional shows/ attractions based on Nintendo IP at its incumbent parks. As mentioned earlier, their rights to the Simpsons expire soon and it’s probable they won’t be renewed. And besides the fact that the Nintendo agreement (merchandise cut) won’t be as favorable to Universal… can you think of any Nintendo IP that would generate more sales (on a regular basis) than Marvel?

Of course the biggest piece is that the contract is now a de facto asset to Universal. Let’s say you owned a blighted, money losing investment property that you’ve been struggling to even give away. Suddenly Disney announces they’re going to build a new theme park in that area. Are you going to give away the property to Disney because they deserve it? Or are you going to recognize that the value of the property has swelled and hold out for proper compensation?

Mommy bloggers be like ‘Disney can do so much more with Marvel than Universal - they should just give it to them.’ But Universal has a responsibility to maximize the compensation it receives for such property.

It is a little more complicated because another company is involved. But Pokémon. And that is what is feeding the rumor currently. Universal is building a Pokémon themed area in their Japanese parks and it will only be a matter of time before it is brought here.

 

[fatmanatee]

It is a little more complicated because another company is involved. But Pokémon. And that is what is feeding the rumor currently. Universal is building a Pokémon themed area in their Japanese parks and it will only be a matter of time before it is brought here.

Just to be clear: the rumor is that Pokemon will be taking over the Spider-Man space in Osaka (now closed). There's a separate rumor that Pokemon will take over the Simpsons area in Orlando and that Zelda will be in the Lost Continent area. Lost Continent is already closed so obviously something will have to go there eventually, and Universal is losing the theme park rights to the Simpsons so something has to give with that area. The signals may have been crossed on those rumors.

 

[LAS2AMS]

It is a little more complicated because another company is involved. But Pokémon. And that is what is feeding the rumor currently. Universal is building a Pokémon themed area in their Japanese parks and it will only be a matter of time before it is brought here.

But there are no rumors. It’s speculation and the speculation ignores the profitability of Marvel to Universal. The merchandising agreement for Marvel is very favorable to Universal. Pokémon will not be.

There’s certainly other areas of Universal that Pokémon can be added into as farmanatee mentions. And Epic Universe isn’t being completely built out.

 

[fatmanatee]

But there are no rumors. It’s speculation and the speculation ignores the profitability of Marvel to Universal. The merchandising agreement for Marvel is very favorable to Universal. Pokémon will not be.

There’s certainly other areas of Universal that Pokémon can be added into as farmanatee mentions. And Epic Universe isn’t being completely built out.

I'll just add one thing, which was not mentioned in the original post, and I probably should have mentioned it in mine: there *is* a rumor about Superhero Island that came from WDWNT's sister site, which I assume is why it was brought up here. It's extremely sparse on details and only mentions that it's in "active development". If we take it at its word, we might be years away from anything being announced, let alone shovels in the ground, so as per the original post, I don't think it's useful to speculate about what attractions Disney might turn around and cancel in the event that this might happen.

I can sort of buy that there will be a time where Universal decides that the area is deteriorating to the degree that it makes sense to replace it with something else though. I just don't think it's happening in the next few years.

 

[LAS2AMS]

I'll just add one thing, which was not mentioned in the original post, and I probably should have mentioned it in mine: there *is* a rumor about Superhero Island that came from WDWNT's sister site, which I assume is why it was brought up here. It's extremely sparse on details and only mentions that it's in "active development". If we take it at its word, we might be years away from anything being announced, let alone shovels in the ground, so as per the original post, I don't think it's useful to speculate about what attractions Disney might turn around and cancel in the event that this might happen.

I can sort of buy that there will be a time where Universal decides that the area is deteriorating to the degree that it makes sense to replace it with something else though. I just don't think it's happening in the next few years.

The article simply states ‘it’s rumored that Universal is actively developing a replacement for MSHI.’ No other context or support is provided for the rumor. The article then focuses on the fees Universal is paying Disney while completely ignoring Universal’s merchandising cut or the value of the contract (given Disney wants it).

The website has a long history of manufacturing rumors/ presenting speculation as rumors but because they had an inside scoop on the Great Movie Riding closing, the Disney community gives them credibility. Even though that was eight years ago…

Some people with connections to Universal are reporting that this rumor is false - that is, Universal is not actively looking to replace MSHI.

Bottom line: (ignoring the merchandising cut) The fees Universal pays Disney are peanuts compared to the fee Disney would have to pay them to get the theme park rights to Marvel.

 

[StarCruzer]

Universal’s cut of Marvel merchandise dwarfs the fees to Disney. It’s an archaic agreement (signed over 30 years ago) that’s very favorable to Universal.

And besides the fact that the Nintendo agreement (merchandise cut) won’t be as favorable to Universal… can you think of any Nintendo IP that would generate more sales (on a regular basis) than Marvel?

My guess is the IP that would come close is Pokemon. Pokemon merch sells like crazy.

But more likely that the Simpsons or MIB would be booted to return for Pokemon.

 

[Lesverts]

I'll just add one thing, which was not mentioned in the original post, and I probably should have mentioned it in mine: there *is* a rumor about Superhero Island that came from WDWNT's sister site, which I assume is why it was brought up here. It's extremely sparse on details and only mentions that it's in "active development". If we take it at its word, we might be years away from anything being announced, let alone shovels in the ground, so as per the original post, I don't think it's useful to speculate about what attractions Disney might turn around and cancel in the event that this might happen.

I can sort of buy that there will be a time where Universal decides that the area is deteriorating to the degree that it makes sense to replace it with something else though. I just don't think it's happening in the next few years.

Yea, there is no timeline here. It is pretty much 2025. Disney has plans announced and in development for WDW until 2031 at least. Universal will probably relax a bit in the afterglow of Epic (if it is received well) but Comcast will need to spend money on redeveloping parts of Universal Studios and Islands of Adventure in probably a 2028-2032 time frame. So this puts Disney at maybe 2035 if this redevelopment rumor has any legs.

 

[The Jackal]

Yea, there is no timeline here. It is pretty much 2025. Disney has plans announced and in development for WDW until 2031 at least. Universal will probably relax a bit in the afterglow of Epic (if it is received well) but Comcast will need to spend money on redeveloping parts of Universal Studios and Islands of Adventure in probably a 2028-2032 time frame. So this puts Disney at maybe 2035 if this redevelopment rumor has any legs.

Universal is allegedly already planning the expansion pads for Epic. Universal has a lot of land available to expand. Including where Epic is, they have about 1,500 acres of land. Let’s not forget Disney is paying Comcast most likely around $12 billion for Hulu. SoCcomcast will have some $$$ in their pockets for stuff