How come DCL isn't selling out?

[clarker99]

In my experience, this negativity is normal behavior on a fan board. People who love, absolutely love, a brand, are usually also the harshest critics and no, they don't have to experienced the product or service.

Fair? Maybe not, but a brand usually has to mess up their product for a long time before true fans turn against them. They tolerate a lot more than a casual consumer. But when things turn sour, they really turn sour.

Usually negativity on boards like this come from a place of love. They want the company to succeed, cause they love the brand, they hate it when the compay fails (in their opinion). They need a place to vent. And that is best done with people who think similar thoughts.

You see it here, but also on boards about movies, theatre, tv shows, books. It is not my thing, but I assume fashion or electronic brands see the same thing on their fan boards.

It is the creation of narratives and projecting things that just are not happening that gets me. i.e. How come DCL isn't selling out? They were never were selling out (at least out of Canaveral) and there are more people cruising with DCL out of Port Canaveral now than pre-Covid.

 

[LAS2AMS]

It is the creation of narratives and projecting things that just are not happening that gets me. i.e. How come DCL isn't selling out? They were never were selling out (at least out of Canaveral) and there are more people cruising with DCL out of Port Canaveral now than pre-Covid.

Given that DCL’s capacity is over 20% higher than pre-COVID, I would hope that more people are sailing today.

That said. In the past it was common for sailings for peak travel periods - spring break, summer, Christmas/New Year’s, etc. to sell out moths in advance. That clearly isn’t happening this year. That doesn’t mean that the ships aren’t going out with a healthy payload - given the price increases, they’re probably making record profits - but it’s definitely a sign that Disney has hit the ceiling for now.

I’ve mentioned this several times but most people ignore and write the opposite — in the domestic industry, prices are falling and have been for some time. Most analysts expect prices to continue to fall. (Because fares are still high, the industry is still healthy, just experiencing a correction). DCL had t lowered its pricing and there’s no doubt that people who would otherwise consider DCL, including my family, are booking elsewhere. The realty is only a small faction of Disney addicts are going to say the increased prices are justified because Disney’s awesome (it is, but so is everyone else theee days).

 

[brentm77]

I will be the first to admit that I just accepted the premise of the thread that bookings were suffering and discounted rates were unusually high for the summer season. If anyone seems to have a pretty good feel for that, it's some of the people here. I also have confirmation bias, since we picked another line for our cruise later this summer for the first time after 15 years with DCL. Whether it's correct, I honestly don't know, but it wouldn't surprise me.

Forbes had a recent article on the strength of DCL (here). As we all know, it's a strong part of Disney's balance sheet and Disney thinks it has significant untapped potential in the market. So I am sure Disney is watching closely if it's margins are shrinking due to a slow down in bookings or increased promotions. The article explains that DCL expenses are expected to be high in the third quarter with Lookout Cay coming on line, "pre-opening expenses" related to the two ships in production, and increasing labor costs. But at least when they released their annual earnings, Disney still expected third quarter bookings to be strong. If they aren't, I am sure there is a bit of panic in the mouse house. Anyway, the above article has some interesting information on how much money Disney has pulled from the company that runs Castaway how much better it is than the losses they see from Disneyland Paris.

I guess it surprises me that Disney recognizes how valuable DCL is for the company and thinks there is untapped market share, that they didn't give us a bit more of a luxury experience with Lookout (not wanting to start another thread on that subject) and allowed opening day to be filled with videos of long piers and flies, that they are letting older ships suffer a bit in maintenance (my recent experience on the Magic), that they still haven't brought back some of the pandemic cuts or added quality replacements, and there latest batch of itineraries are as boring as ever. It feels a little too much like the "if we build it, they will come" attitude that we saw in the parks for too long, with signs of it finally catching up to Disney there. I still love the product overall, but I can also see some missteps and room for improvement.

 

[RivShore]

That clearly isn’t happening this year

But how do we know that other than the anecdotal evidence. Yes, it very well may be as you said but just some random checks by random people at random times does not sound like good evidence to me.

 

[FastPasser.]

All I know is that they don’t offer cruises at the CM rate unless the cruise is not sold out and there have been plenty of offerings.

But even though it’s our least expensive cruising option we’re moving on from DCL.

I certainly don’t need anymore Disney ambience and at Platinum, we’ve been there and done that.

 

[RivShore]

Forbes had a recent article on the strength of DCL (here). As we all know, it's a strong part of Disney's balance sheet and Disney thinks it has significant untapped potential in the market.

Interesting article. Thanks for posting!

 

[Halfbrit]

In my experience, this negativity is normal behavior on a fan board. People who love, absolutely love, a brand, are usually also the harshest critics and no, they don't have to experienced the product or service.

Fair? Maybe not, but a brand usually has to mess up their product for a long time before true fans turn against them. They tolerate a lot more than a casual consumer. But when things turn sour, they really turn sour.

Usually negativity on boards like this come from a place of love. They want the company to succeed, cause they love the brand, they hate it when the compay fails (in their opinion). They need a place to vent. And that is best done with people who think similar thoughts.

You see it here, but also on boards about movies, theatre, tv shows, books. It is not my thing, but I assume fashion or electronic brands see the same thing on their fan boards.

I agree. I think where there is negativity it's in the hope that the feedback somehow gets to Disney so they make the product better. I also think there's plenty of positivity on this forum too.

 

[GatorGirl14]

We paid our deposit with discounted cards from Costco. I'm hoping they come out with another deal like that again, it was amazing.

FYI - Sam's has them right now. I'm a member of both (it makes sense for our family, but I know it doesn't for everyone), so I just checked. Not sure about BJ's or anywhere else.

 

[MonaMN]

It feels a little too much like the "if we build it, they will come" attitude that we saw in the parks for too long, with signs of it finally catching up to Disney there. I still love the product overall, but I can also see some missteps and room for improvement.

We already have one new ship on the horizon (Treasure) with two more shortly thereafter (Adventure and Destiny). And Lighthouse Point just opened. That's a lot of change in a fairly short amount of time - with lots of questions about how everything will adjust. So while there's not a lot new with the new batch, I expect everything will get shaken up here in the near term.

 

[mcd2745]

To me, the most telling thing was how long it took for the Treasure's inaugural sailing to finally sell out. That probably highlighted the pricing issue more than anything.

I'll also agree with what a number of others have already touched on when it comes to the originalfour ships. I think they have rested on their laurels a bit too much when it comes to keeping things fresh. How long has it been since they have overhauled the MDR menus? Or some of the shows? For example, on the Dream & Fantasy...it's long overdue to replace Believe. Everyone knows what makes the garden grow by now. Visiting the same old ports is an issue, but I think not regularly refreshing the onboard experience is the bigger issue. You can find new things to do in the ports. You can't currently choose a new show or menu onboard.

 

[Karin1984]

"if we build it, they will come" attitude

This probably has a lot to do with it. As an echo to the other thread about Lighthouse Point, "Do they think Disney is enough"?
When you look at the Magic vs. the Wish, they basically offer the same. There are some slight updates to the product, with the slides, or interactive games, but overall not much changed in 25 years.

It must be a conscious choice for Disney not to innovate. The other family oriented cruiselines go for more and more exciting things to do on board, go carts, rock climbing and what all, while Disney sticks to what they know.

And for new guests, that might be enough. For frequent cruisers and their fanbase, it might not.

 

[meremac]

Travel has cooled across the board. Rising prices (not just for travel but for the general cost of living), wage stagnation, fears of a recession, etc. Plus we're on the other side of a post-COVID travel bubble. Ups and downs, just like always.

 

[RivShore]

Travel has cooled across the board. Rising prices (not just for travel but for the general cost of living), wage stagnation, fears of a recession, etc. Plus we're on the other side of a post-COVID travel bubble. Ups and downs, just like always.

And yet....

Record-setting travel predicted in Florida for Fourth of July, AAA says​

Orlando one of top Independence Day destinations​

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...icted-in-florida-for-fourth-of-july-aaa-says/

 

[Kingkonig]

All this talk about whether the cruise ever continuously sold out or not, and has anyone brought up that it is better for the average cruiser if the cruises aren't booked at/over capacity? I love the parks too, but one of the biggest benefits to the cruise line is that there is a hard cap at the number of people allowed onboard at any point in time - I'd take sailing on a ship at 85-90% capacity any day over a ship between 95-110% capacity

 

[meremac]

And yet....

Record-setting travel predicted in Florida for Fourth of July, AAA says​

Orlando one of top Independence Day destinations​

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...icted-in-florida-for-fourth-of-july-aaa-says/

Yeah I mean, holidays are definitely top travel times. I'm just saying in general travel is cooling. But I will agree that, yes, DCL's prices do make it a stretch for a lot of people.

 

[Cfabar1]

The other ships are innovating and adding more stuff by cramming a lot more people onto the ships…

The Disney Magic was built around the time of the Carnival Elation… They in essence offer similar capacities…

The new ships being built like the Icon of the Seas house lots more stuff to do, but also thousands of more people than the Disney Wish/Treasure… I prefer the smaller ship idea which naturally means fewer amenities.

 

[FastPasser.]

The new ships being built like the Icon of the Seas house lots more stuff to do, but also thousands of more people than the Disney Wish/Treasure… I prefer the smaller ship idea which naturally means fewer amenities.

It comes down to preference. We fairly recently did RCCL’s Wonder of the Seas, which was the largest ship at the time, and loved it. Looking forward to doing the Icon of the Seas.

We’re very active and want lots of things to do. We never just lounge around the pool. The larger number of people was not an issue for us at all.

We prefer not to do the smaller and much older Disney Magic and Wonder.

Having said that, the couple we were traveling with were happy to get off. The Disney Wonder is their favorite.

 

[brentm77]

The other ships are innovating and adding more stuff by cramming a lot more people onto the ships…

The Disney Magic was built around the time of the Carnival Elation… They in essence offer similar capacities…

The new ships being built like the Icon of the Seas house lots more stuff to do, but also thousands of more people than the Disney Wish/Treasure… I prefer the smaller ship idea which naturally means fewer amenities.

I'm personally not interested in innovation along the lines of Icon. I would just sail Icon if that's what I wanted. I love the classic DCL product. But that doesn't prevent Disney from innovating in other ways. There is some low hanging fruit where I would start - fixing the customer unfriendly experience of two midnight scrambles to book stuff and then check in, for example. Refreshing menus, even if it was as simple as adding one or two changing options on each menu of seasonal, local or chef's choice options. Not duplicating a decades-old show when introducing your new ships. Improving the pool-side food on the classic ships to better keep up with the competitors or even the new ships. Having a viable alternative at night for the MDR's. That's just the easy stuff.

DCL found a formula that works and keeps people coming back over and over. I can see why they would be conservative regarding changes. But things can be freshened up, with the customer experience improved in small ways, without changing the core stuff that works. They did do some innovation on the Wish (pool side food comes to mind), but they did it while taking away from the adult experience. That is not the type of innovation our family is looking for.

I do wonder how unaware DCL is of what customers are really thinking. Those survey's are useless with the results being skewed via guilt trips. I bet the very top execs think the customers absolutely love the MDR food.

 

[DCLMP]

It is the creation of narratives and projecting things that just are not happening that gets me. i.e. How come DCL isn't selling out? They were never were selling out (at least out of Canaveral) and there are more people cruising with DCL out of Port Canaveral now than pre-Covid.

They often do sell out after various discounts. Cast members, military, GT, Florida rates, interline. There's always been the perception that every cruise sells out at full price. That may have been the case 15 years ago, but since I've started cruising DCL in 2011 it hasn't been the case. As someone who books with the various discounts I have not seen a change in the last couple of years.

I think it's pretty obvious why they can't sell every room at full price. That being said over the last couple of years they have raised the prices substantially so it may get even harder for them to sell at that price point. Especially if the consumer is tapped out and people start pulling back on discretionary spending or even worse credit dries up.

 

[DCLMP]

Yeah I mean, holidays are definitely top travel times. I'm just saying in general travel is cooling. But I will agree that, yes, DCL's prices do make it a stretch for a lot of people.

Credit card debt is at all time high. As long as there is credit available people will continue to travel. We are a debt based economy.