How come DCL isn't selling out?

[clarker99]

But Disney is setting expectations that stockholders should expect attendance to soften overall, or "normalize" compared to recent years

The general narrative on here and other boards seems to be that attendance is still below 2019 (I personally think we are roughly in line with 2019 attendance right now but their is no hard evidence to back that bc Disney was vague on it FY2022 attendance growth only stating >100% vs 2021).

Based on this comment from the earnings call, do we feel like they are saying things were higher in 2023 than 2019 and things will normalize back toward 2019? Or growth will slow to 0% and we are back to 2019?

I guess a lot is left to interpretation but I assume 2019 is still the baseline comparison for 'normal'.

 

[Lucien Franciosa]

Maybe leisure travel is doing better than Disney - there is certainly consumer backlash from long time consumers that started several years ago with the negative post-pandemic changes in the parks. I don't know. But if Disney is saying we expect growth to slow, but the rest of the world is still showing signs of continued growth, that's a reasonable theory. (It's not like Disney is suffering, it's just that their growth is flat and they expect it to normalize).

I provided the data I am using to form my guesses. First, TSA screening hit record highs yesterday (higher than any holiday travel in history and it wasn't even a holiday). Second, TSA expects the July 4th holiday travel to hit all time records too. Third, earlier in this thread, I posted a Forbes analysis of the cruise industry, which is seeing increasing demand and fantastic booking percentages for the rest of the year. In other words, there aren't a lot of signs the leisure is travel is slowing outside of Disney's expectations of flat park attendance growth. It's entirely possible consumer backlash is showing up as people move their money to other destinations.

I am sorry, still missing your overall point, you talk about theme park data, you talk about cruise data from Forbes saying the industry is growing, and then you bring in anecdotal data from these boards that says DCL is not selling, although data has been presented that that although supply has been increased, occupancy is similar to pre-pandemic. And then you bring in TSA numbers.

So again I ask, is it your position that DCL is suffering whereas the rest of the cruise industry is not? And is that based on a mixture of anecdotal data and perhaps related, perhaps not TSA indicators, Forbes on cruising in general, and recent market calls with Disney?

Because if we go back to Forbes, they seem to believer DCL is growing...

"Disney Cruise Line has seen unprecedented growth over the past few years. It’s newest addition to the growing Disney Experiences’ business is the debut of Disney Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point, a new island destination in the Bahamas"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/megand...and-destination-welcomes-first-cruise-ships/#

as does this

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Disney-earnings-Q2-2024

I do appreciate the discussion, I just think we don't have all the relevant numbers to reach the conclusion DCL is not growing.

 

[brentm77]

I am sorry, still missing your overall point, you talk about theme park data, you talk about cruise data from Forbes saying the industry is growing, and then you bring in anecdotal data from these boards that says DCL is not selling, although data has been presented that that although supply has been increased, occupancy is similar to pre-pandemic. And then you bring in TSA numbers.

So again I ask, is it your position that DCL is suffering whereas the rest of the cruise industry is not? And is that based on a mixture of anecdotal data and perhaps related, perhaps not TSA indicators, Forbes on cruising in general, and recent market calls with Disney?

Because if we go back to Forbes, they seem to believer DCL is growing...

"Disney Cruise Line has seen unprecedented growth over the past few years. It’s newest addition to the growing Disney Experiences’ business is the debut of Disney Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point, a new island destination in the Bahamas"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/megand...and-destination-welcomes-first-cruise-ships/#

as does this

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Disney-earnings-Q2-2024

I do appreciate the discussion, I just think we don't have all the relevant numbers to reach the conclusion DCL is not growing.

I added a comment above saying I think I am going to bow out of the discussion in general. I don't follow the stock or the industry enough to talk that intelligently and didn't mean to get in this deep. In the end, I don't actually know if the parks or DCL will see lower bookings this year. I really just posted the TSA article as another data point to consider when determining if leisure travel is slowing, but then found myself trying to defend a position I don't feel that strongly about because I have a bad habit of doing that. I am not even convinced that DCL bookings are suffering, I just took that point as true when originally responding to this thread because I see so much room for improvement with the DCL experience, while still loving the product in general.

 

[DCLMP]

I am sorry, still missing your overall point, you talk about theme park data, you talk about cruise data from Forbes saying the industry is growing, and then you bring in anecdotal data from these boards that says DCL is not selling, although data has been presented that that although supply has been increased, occupancy is similar to pre-pandemic. And then you bring in TSA numbers.

So again I ask, is it your position that DCL is suffering whereas the rest of the cruise industry is not? And is that based on a mixture of anecdotal data and perhaps related, perhaps not TSA indicators, Forbes on cruising in general, and recent market calls with Disney?

Because if we go back to Forbes, they seem to believer DCL is growing...

"Disney Cruise Line has seen unprecedented growth over the past few years. It’s newest addition to the growing Disney Experiences’ business is the debut of Disney Lookout Cay at Lighthouse Point, a new island destination in the Bahamas"

https://www.forbes.com/sites/megand...and-destination-welcomes-first-cruise-ships/#

as does this

https://www.travelweekly.com/Cruise-Travel/Disney-earnings-Q2-2024

I do appreciate the discussion, I just think we don't have all the relevant numbers to reach the conclusion DCL is not growing.

.I think they are basing it on DCL offering discounts this Summer, but DCL has always offered Discounts. There used to be a thread where people posted all the discounted cruises. DCL offering discounts is nothing new. Just like discounts on resort rooms is nothing new.

 

[Lucien Franciosa]

.I think they are basing it on DCL offering discounts this Summer, but DCL has always offered Discounts. There used to be a thread where people posted all the discounted cruises. DCL offering discounts is nothing new. Just like discounts on resort rooms is nothing new.

thanks.. yes... after a while it just seems like reading tea leaves... maybe DCL is offering more discounts earlier, maybe it isn't. anecdotal evidence is not the most reliable (except when its mine lol). Maybe when I retire and can be more flexible with dates I will look into taking advantage of those discounts..

 

[MonaMN]

Well, our August cruise was pulled from the website - assuming that means it's sold out since others around it are still showing as available to book. So they're not doing too bad, it seems...

 

[DCLMP]

thanks.. yes... after a while it just seems like reading tea leaves... maybe DCL is offering more discounts earlier, maybe it isn't. anecdotal evidence is not the most reliable (except when its mine lol). Maybe when I retire and can be more flexible with dates I will look into taking advantage of those discounts..

Prices have gone up so much I don't feel like I'm getting a discount. WDW is offering 30% off on resorts buy most deluxe resorts are still 500+ a night. Thanks, but no thanks.

 

[DCLMP]

Well, our August cruise was pulled from the website - assuming that means it's sold out since others around it are still showing as available to book. So they're not doing too bad, it seems

Or it's the website being glitchy.

 

[dreamer17555]

Well, our August cruise was pulled from the website - assuming that means it's sold out since others around it are still showing as available to book. So they're not doing too bad, it seems...

Can I ask which Aug sailing? Im seeing all of them.

 

[Kingkonig]

Prices have gone up so much I don't feel like I'm getting a discount. WDW is offering 30% off on resorts buy most deluxe resorts are still 500+ a night. Thanks, but no thanks.

I do wish with the resorts you could purchase a "placeholder" like you can on DCL. It isn't always the most feasible thing in the world to come back from a week long vacation and then immediately put in a request for another one (even if it is a year or so out). That or give us like a month with that 25-30-35% off promotion!

 

[auntlynne]

Can I ask which Aug sailing? Im seeing all of them.

There’s about a 3-week period from end of July until mid August.

The 9-N on July 19 is down to 2 verandah cabins. Another date is only oceanviews.

Height of AK season in the Wonder. Maybe they sold GTY and GT rates and filed the ship over the last few months.

 

[DCLMP]

There’s about a 3-week period from end of July until mid August.

The 9-N on July 19 is down to 2 verandah cabins. Another date is only oceanviews.

Height of AK season in the Wonder. Maybe they sold GTY and GT rates and filed the ship over the last few months.

Yes they did offer GT rates on that sailing as they did on many of the Alaska cruises so far this season.

 

[Cfabar1]

Maybe someone can call Josh D'Amaro and ask him to let us know....

We will never really know beyond the public statements what the reality is... All I know is, track where the investments are... DCL clearly is believed to be a growth driver at the company...

As long as it doesn't come too much at the expense of the guest experience, I won't object...

 

[imbelle]

I personally think that their initial ad campaign (which focused more on a party vibe) did them a disservice as it wasn't really what the experience (which, IMHO, is an upscale, more luxury experience) was. The advertising now is much more on point.

Friends of ours who have done several VV cruises keep trying to convince us to do a group cruise. While the adults only and the food quality aspects would be a good fit, we haven't been able to bring ourselves to pull the trigger because of the "party vibe" focus in the VV advertising.

 

[DCLMP]

Maybe someone can call Josh D'Amaro and ask him to let us know....

We will never really know beyond the public statements what the reality is... All I know is, track where the investments are... DCL clearly is believed to be a growth driver at the company...

As long as it doesn't come too much at the expense of the guest experience, I won't object...

Let us know what?

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

My last cruise sold out and my next one in Feb 2025 seems to be pretty full as some room categories are already unavailable and those that are available are very expensive now

 

[MonaMN]

Can I ask which Aug sailing? Im seeing all of them.

It's the Aug 5 sailing - I see it again now, but the only cabin available is a $30K concierge room. So if you want to join us... there you go!

 

[DisneyPiPhi]

I know quite a few people that are trying their first cruise this year. I think cruising is becoming popular and I personally think it's the all-inclusive aspect of a cruise. The cost of eating out right now is ridiculous whether it's fast food or sit down restaurant. Hotels are not cheap either.

This is one thing we really love about cruising - the ability to pay it all in advance and not have a bill after vacation for meals, etc. I think that makes cruising really attractive to people who do need to plan and budget for their trips!

I do wish with the resorts you could purchase a "placeholder" like you can on DCL. It isn't always the most feasible thing in the world to come back from a week long vacation and then immediately put in a request for another one (even if it is a year or so out). That or give us like a month with that 25-30-35% off promotion!

Disney World resorts do offer this - the "bounceback" offer you can book for up to seven days after checking out from a Disney resort. The rates on that can be very good, although dates and resorts are limited.

 

[MonaMN]

Yes they did offer GT rates on that sailing as they did on many of the Alaska cruises so far this season.

We grabbed one of those - we were originally looking at sailing next summer to Alaska with a trip on the Magic this summer, but swapped it when those rates came out. So excited!!

 

[dreamer17555]

It's the Aug 5 sailing - I see it again now, but the only cabin available is a $30K concierge room. So if you want to join us... there you go!

The Aug 5th on the Wish has every category available. Alaska Aug 5th doesn't but that tends to happen as the Wonder is much smaller and people book Alaska earlier. And even that sailing had IGT at one point.