DVCNews November Direct Sales

[AstroBlasters]

The difference was 29k…not 60k . RIV sold 61k and PVB 89K.

I don’t think this is about restrictions because that is not really a big difference.

I think we are still seeing the impact of current owners who simply wanted PVB tower.

In the next few months we shall see if what happened with BPK happens here. Once the initial buying excitement died down, RiV jumped ahead until DVD made VGf cheaper.

“I don’t think this is about restrictions because that is not really a big difference.”

Stockholm Syndrome

I kid… I kid…

 

[Royal Consort]

Poly is just very expensive and can be had on resale for much cheaper - so the pie of who would buy direct for it is much smaller.

Right?! This is why I thought Island Tower being sold as a separate association was a no brainer. If I was wanting more points at Poly, I'd be heading to the resale market. Be a fool not to (but in a few months when the price depreciates further).

 

[supercarrie]

I wonder if the difference in 60k points between RIV and Poly could be the resale implications. What I mean is when RIV went on sale, the only way to access it was direct. However, Poly can be accessed either direct or resale with a pretty sizable price difference between the two.

This was one of the factors that led to me buying Riv earlier this year during the summer incentives versus waiting for Poly. I knew I wanted direct points, and also knew that I could always buy Poly on the resale market at a later time if I really needed it, but would never buy Riv resale. I also suspected (correctly, as most people did) that Poly incentives would be minimal. We also decided that for various reasons, the likelihood of us having to sell the Riv contract was quite low, and even if we did, the loss wouldn't be financially devastating to us. (IMO, no one should buy a timeshare banking on reselling it. It is just a nice bonus that you can typically sell at a reasonable price, or even make a profit, with DVC.)

My second reason is probably not common, but I also knew that when staying at Riviera, I'd typically want a standard view. Standard view studios at Riv are quite challenging to book. Historically, Poly longhouse availability has been a bit easier. (And I knew that if studio availability becomes an issue, or the 1 bedrooms prove impossible to book, again, I can always buy resale Poly.)

 

[vdangelo239]

This was one of the factors that led to me buying Riv earlier this year during the summer incentives versus waiting for Poly. I knew I wanted direct points, and also knew that I could always buy Poly on the resale market at a later time if I really needed it, but would never buy Riv resale. I also suspected (correctly, as most people did) that Poly incentives would be minimal. We also decided that for various reasons, the likelihood of us having to sell the Riv contract was quite low, and even if we did, the loss wouldn't be financially devastating to us. (IMO, no one should buy a timeshare banking on reselling it. It is just a nice bonus that you can typically sell at a reasonable price, or even make a profit, with DVC.)

My second reason probably is not common, but I also knew that when staying at Riviera, I'd typically want a standard view. Standard view studios at Riv are quite challenging to book. Historically, Poly longhouse availability has been a bit easier. (And I knew that if studio availability becomes an issue, or the 1 bedrooms prove impossible to book, again, I can always buy resale Poly.)

Agree with all of this - also purchased direct at Riv last July. We had Poly resale already and I flirted with waiting to add on w Direct points for perks - but owning Poly resale for the last 5 years the longhouses (our fav) are not hard to book - so priority at Riv for Standard Studio and Duo carries more value.

 

[Sandisw]

“I don’t think this is about restrictions because that is not really a big difference.”

Stockholm Syndrome

I kid… I kid…

I should have added that big of a difference when you consider the hype and expectation it would sell strong! Lol

But, the resale aspect might be part of it. And some of us did say that would be a con of combining if you were going to sell it at the price we all figured it would be!

 

[Brian Noble]

It's worth noting that on a year-over-year basis, DVC sales are up. Strongly.

November 2023. November 2024.

Comparing to the prior month is a lot less interesting than the prior year, because the market is so seasonal. It's also interesting to compare to The Before Times. Here is 2019.

I suspect the folks in the corner offices at DVD are not entirely unhappy.

 

[CastAStone]

It's worth noting that on a year-over-year basis, DVC sales are up. Strongly.

November 2023. November 2024.

Comparing to the prior month is a lot less interesting than the prior year, because the market is so seasonal. It's also interesting to compare to The Before Times. Here is 2019.

I suspect the folks in the corner offices at DVD are not entirely unhappy.

Yes, but how much higher are their carrying costs right now, between 5 resorts in active sales (presumably they’ve paid off the construction loans at least on Aulani and likely Riviera, but in 2019 they’d have paid off Aulani too and probably CCV as well) and the higher interest rates vs 2019?

Sales are up vs 2019 but I genuinely think it’s possible costs are up significantly more.

 

[Brian Noble]

Certainly possible. But they presumably know what their long-run sales numbers look like (and these are within that range) and they chose to bring PIT online (and re-start Reflections) when they did despite that. There's also the matter that the sales price has been rising faster than inflation, in the face of at-worst-steady point volumes.

It's possible that they know what they are doing seeing as they've been doing it for around 25 years now.

 

[ehh]

It's worth noting that on a year-over-year basis, DVC sales are up. Strongly.

November 2023. November 2024.

Comparing to the prior month is a lot less interesting than the prior year, because the market is so seasonal. It's also interesting to compare to The Before Times. Here is 2019.

I suspect the folks in the corner offices at DVD are not entirely unhappy.

I think part of this is the new resort effect, with PVB's initial sales partially showing up in Nov 2024 vs. nothing in Nov 2023.

But I think another part, also in comparison to the 2019 numbers you posted, is simply having multiple WDW options available for purchase. How many sales did they lose, for years, by typically only having one option and it maybe not being a great fit for all prospective buyers? How much did the lack of choice (or even the appearance of choice) hurt?*

Last couple of years they had RIV+VGF and now they have RIV+PVB(+CFW). And, while I haven't compiled the data, I'm reasonably sure the sales of the tandems of the resorts has outpaced single-WDW-resort months. Now they also have VDH adding in a small chunk each month, too. (and maybe they fast-tracked Lakeshore Lodge because CFW will never be a meaningful dance partner to another WDW resort)

Yeah, they also have the Sold Outs but how many low-information buyers will look at those 'older resorts' with much higher prices, typically no incentives, and guides warning of potential waitlists and think that's the right choice?


* As an anecdote to this, back when I was purchasing in 2016 I was a low-information buyer. We had decided we definitely wanted to visit WDW each year and I had done a little bit of math to show that DVC was a cost effective way to upgrade our rooms from Moderates (and that we could comfortably afford it). I hadn't done much other research, though. I didn't even know that resale existed.

All that was actively for sale was PVB, and they almost lost the sale because of it.

And it wasn't even that we disliked the Poly...Poly was our favorite resort to day-visit! We also only wanted to stay in Studios and loved the Poly model room. Poly was a near-perfect fit for us and we still almost balked at buying because of a lack of choice.

We did an in-person tour mostly for the FastPasses and I told our guide I was sure we were going to buy DVC but was unsure whether to buy Poly or wait for the next one at Copper Creek (which had been announced a few months prior). I wanted to be able to compare them.

Guide looked at me like I was an idiot (and probably sensed an opportunity for a sale), told me there was no guarantee they'd overlap on sales (true, though they did overlap for a few months), that the price would just be higher later (very true, we bought at a pricing nadir for PVB and lower than CCV ever was), and that I'd basically have to make the choice before CCV went on sale (not true).

This started the 'why not Poly?' discussion in earnest, which steered us to buying Poly shortly thereafter, which was the correct decision for us. (as an aside, I am very grateful we dodged CCV during our Studio phase...we have friends who bought a year or two later at CCV and they have struggled to book Studios at CCV every single year)

But all the hesitation was because I wanted a choice, to make a decision between resorts, not just accept whatever DVC was selling at that time. Despite the actively selling resort being ideal for us.

 

[BrianLo]

I wonder if the difference in 60k points between RIV and Poly could be the resale implications. What I mean is when RIV went on sale, the only way to access it was direct. However, Poly can be accessed either direct or resale with a pretty sizable price difference between the two.

I think DVC made a calculation about how many existing Poly members they could convince to add on since they were offering bigger units. Versus turning PIT into a standalone product. I actually think PIT has clear evidence of being almost a stand alone, even the lobby is on the stronger end. It just lacks a quick serve / coffee place, a sundries store and then a better pool deck to pull that off.

I personally think they miscalculated, because I expect Poly resale to tumble back down soon enough. They also really didn’t do that hot during the member only add on window.

I think it’s clearly overpriced just from looking at the point charts. I don’t need sales data to show me that. So is riviera but it sells okay.

There’s lots of reasons the sales could be coming in slowly (or, more specifically, are being recorded slowly). Let’s check back in a few months to see how sales are before we connect the two. It’s not like we’re looking at a CFW disaster.

Oh yes, not a disaster. I’m more just musing to myself against a narrative the board sponsor / the DVC show was barking up the wrong tree on. They really believed Poly was going to start 250 direct and that would be ‘underpriced’. But they also said similar things on VDH.

Medium term Poly will sell way better than VDH.

 

[CarolynFH]

But all the hesitation was because I wanted a choice, to make a decision between resorts, not just accept whatever DVC was selling at that time. Despite the actively selling resort being ideal for us.

This statement struck a chord in me. It made me remember that when we bought BWV in 1997, we had a choice - OKW was still in active sales in 1997 (not to mention VB and HHI, but we didn’t consider them for even one moment). I agree with you - being able to choose between alternatives is better than being told “take it or leave it.”

 

[Brian Noble]

But all the hesitation was because I wanted a choice, to make a decision between resorts, not just accept whatever DVC was selling at that time. Despite the actively selling resort being ideal for us.

This reminds me of the Stand-Up Economist's bit on Mankiw---and particular the "two Snickers bars" line. The whole thing is worth watching though.

But that kind of sloppy thinking will never get you a Tenure-Track position!

 

[disneylandtour]

It's worth noting that on a year-over-year basis, DVC sales are up. Strongly.

November 2023. November 2024.

Comparing to the prior month is a lot less interesting than the prior year, because the market is so seasonal. It's also interesting to compare to The Before Times. Here is 2019.

I suspect the folks in the corner offices at DVD are not entirely unhappy.

Inflation was more of an issue in 2023 as well.

 

[jason423]

It's worth noting that on a year-over-year basis, DVC sales are up. Strongly.

November 2023. November 2024.

Comparing to the prior month is a lot less interesting than the prior year, because the market is so seasonal. It's also interesting to compare to The Before Times. Here is 2019.

I suspect the folks in the corner offices at DVD are not entirely unhappy.

Overall year over year they are down unless December is a big month. Last year they were around 2.28M points for the full year and I believe currently they are closer to 1.8M. They had 6 months with 220K+ points sold this year its been 1. I wouldnt say they should be unhappy since the price mix is higher but at least initially the new Poly hasnt been as popular as the VDH when it launched and none of the "firesales" for this year came close to matching the interest in buying VGF at the low prices last year.

 

[peder]

Price cuts have gotta be coming in some form. Maybe they'll pair the price increase in February with major incentives. I don't think Disney can safely sit on huge points inventory (with more on the way) with interest rates where they're at. Their risk people will probably say it's better have bird in hand (DVC contracts sold) rather than two in the bush (future cash stays where demand can always slow down).

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I love the Poly more than i could have imagined after our first stay this summer. The tower is icing on the cake. I could wait for resale to go down and forego direct member benefits, of course. I understand patience might bring a better incentive even with the pp increase. But waiting will ice me out of PIVOT on my next trip and decrease the value of my resale contract. I don't think we will wait.

I will be so happy staying at the poly once a year until I can't travel anymore. I will love either passing on this gift or selling and blowing the money on a different frivolous adventure. I have been fiscally responsible and grinding it out my whole life. Early retirement and a Disney annual visit is right around the riverbend!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Price cuts have gotta be coming in some form. Maybe they'll pair the price increase in February with major incentives. I don't think Disney can safely sit on huge points inventory (with more on the way) with interest rates where they're at. Their risk people will probably say it's better have bird in hand (DVC contracts sold) rather than two in the bush (future cash stays where demand can always slow down).

I wouldn’t count on it.

 

[NY Pirate Princess]

I wouldn’t count on it.

Exactly.

Best time time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. Second best time is today. Might not apply to DVC but I am going to apply it anyway.

 

[Cfabar1]

Without knowing what metrics Disney is using to evaluate the success of DVC, it is hard to know whether it is a success or failure or something in between.

Disney is not known for lowering prices. We will see what they do with incentives...

 

[CastAStone]

Without knowing what metrics Disney is using to evaluate the success of DVC, it is hard to know whether it is a success or failure or something in between.

Disney is not known for lowering prices. We will see what they do with incentives...

It’s pretty clear what current DVC leadership wants.

The questions are whether the sales of various resorts are too slow for their first boss who isn’t hands on with the business, which is presumably Josh D’Amaro (what to know: everyone expects outsized growth even when it’s unrealistic, that’s corporate America), what the business looks like on the bottom line, and what the NEXT leadership team will think - the current leaders are a few years in and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them cycle, regardless of performance.

Things will change at some point! Of course they will. How?

¯\_(ツ)_/¯​