DVCNews November Direct Sales

BrianLo

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434
https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program-men...ation-club-direct-sales-fall-in-november-2024

@maui22 has been tracking this well for us already. I think we’re seeing clear evidence Poly is overpriced.

RIV (on sale 27th of the prior month)
59k* / 129k / 114k
VGF2 (on sale the 3rd of the month/March 31 new members)
115k / 175k / 100k
VDH (on sale the 2nd of the month/30th new members)
145k / 162k / 94k
PIT (on sale 1st of the month/29th new members)
73k / 89k / December sales pending

*Note 169k of copper creek was also sold in the opening month of RIV.
 
Another interesting set of data. I agree that it’s not selling as well as some may have thought it would.

While it did sell almost 30K more than RIV, I don’t believe that difference is as large as the one between BPK and RIV during BPKs initial sales.
 
Another interesting set of data. I agree that it’s not selling as well as some may have thought it would.

While it did sell almost 30K more than RIV, I don’t believe that difference is as large as the one between BPK and RIV during BPKs initial sales.

Unless they budge on price towards parity, we’ll likely see RIV back in the sales lead within 2-3 months. New members are going to go towards price if there’s more than a 10$pp differential. Particularly since the points chart at RIV is cheaper.
 
Do we have a place that indicates how many more points they have to sell at Aulani? I am guessing it is harding to track the sales data for Hawaii.
 
Do we have a place that indicates how many more points they have to sell at Aulani? I am guessing it is harding to track the sales data for Hawaii.

It’s being roughly inferred by following their declarations. 340 units are now declared out of 461. So a little over 70% likely is sold.

They’ve historically averaged 19 units more a year.
 
I wonder if the difference in 60k points between RIV and Poly could be the resale implications. What I mean is when RIV went on sale, the only way to access it was direct. However, Poly can be accessed either direct or resale with a pretty sizable price difference between the two. 🤔
 
I wonder if the difference in 60k points between RIV and Poly could be the resale implications. What I mean is when RIV went on sale, the only way to access it was direct. However, Poly can be accessed either direct or resale with a pretty sizable price difference between the two. 🤔

Some of it, probably for sure...

I'm probably first hand example of that... when I saw the pricing and no MB to go along with it, I immediately made an offer on a resale contract :-)
 
Some of it, probably for sure...

I'm probably first hand example of that... when I saw the pricing and no MB to go along with it, I immediately made an offer on a resale contract :-)
This is also factoring in those who didn’t even wait for direct pricing and immediately bought resale especially if you already were entitled to direct benefits and just wanted points for the tower.
 
I wonder if the difference in 60k points between RIV and Poly could be the resale implications. What I mean is when RIV went on sale, the only way to access it was direct. However, Poly can be accessed either direct or resale with a pretty sizable price difference between the two. 🤔

The difference was 29k…not 60k . RIV sold 61k and PVB 89K.

I don’t think this is about restrictions because that is not really a big difference.

I think we are still seeing the impact of current owners who simply wanted PVB tower.

In the next few months we shall see if what happened with BPK happens here. Once the initial buying excitement died down, RiV jumped ahead until DVD made VGf cheaper.
 
Do we have a place that indicates how many more points they have to sell at Aulani? I am guessing it is harding to track the sales data for Hawaii.
It’s not hard per se. it used to be impossible to gather the data online, then it was possible but like $5/page (and each contract is multiple pages).

Now you can actually get the sales data in low resolution PDFs for free but no one seems to have automated a way to process it yet.
 
I think we’re seeing clear evidence Poly is overpriced
I think it’s clearly overpriced just from looking at the point charts. I don’t need sales data to show me that. So is riviera but it sells okay.

There’s lots of reasons the sales could be coming in slowly (or, more specifically, are being recorded slowly). Let’s check back in a few months to see how sales are before we connect the two. It’s not like we’re looking at a CFW disaster.
 
My view is the math starts getting tougher to justify DVC once you get north of about $175-180/pp... especially compared to resale...

Especially on a 40 (instead of 50 year) contract...

and for a resort that is points heavy - especially if you want room types beyond studios...

and a resort that may prove to be imbalanced for room types in the middle...
 
I am sure a good chunk who buy spread the purchase out and close after month 1 - so we will have to wait and see.

I do believe though when you factor in price and point chart as well as perceived exclusivity with the restrictions - Riv will overtake it in sales in time.

Poly is just very expensive and can be had on resale for much cheaper - so the pie of who would buy direct for it is much smaller.

Riv - if you want it you have to buy direct basically
 
Unless they budge on price towards parity, we’ll likely see RIV back in the sales lead within 2-3 months. New members are going to go towards price if there’s more than a 10$pp differential. Particularly since the points chart at RIV is cheaper.

That’s exactly what happened with Grand Floridian. For a couple months, Riviera was matching or exceeding it. Then they improved the Grand Floridian incentives and sales took off.

I do think direct first time buyers are particularly price sensitive. Price being more important than “home resort” for many, especially as they are sold on using the points at any resort.

And yes, that point chart gets scary— if they look at the cost of the room versus costs per point.
 
Another great chart I found from Will that highlights how resorts did previously (this is old Poly sales). I think people erroneously remember how well Poly originally did, particularly compared to what they think it did versus the maligned Riviera

View attachment 922027

https://dvcnews.com/disney-news/fea...ring-early-sales-for-riviera-to-other-resorts
Original PVB sales were the worst rollout of any resort. They had a disaster of not getting the product approved in all states. First couple weeks it was essentially only sold to people in Florida. Most were approved within 4 weeks of sales starting, but not all.

IIRC, California wasn’t even approved within those first 65 days. Tikiman became so frustrated he eventually flew to Florida so he could purchase.
 
Take November sales data with a grain of salt. 2024 calendar resulted in the county no longer recording any deeds after the Wednesday before Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving was very late in the month. County comptroller was closed the day after. Then, the weekend hit.

First full day in December data, there was a large number of deeds and points.

Note: I am not sure if California had the day after Thanksgiving off. It’s possible they did.
 


















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