DVC Direct Price Increase Coming 2/11/25

[vdangelo239]

Buried in the new Winter DVC promo email is details on the price increases coming. They include:

Please see below for the new price per Vacation Point effective 2/11/25:

Disney’s Polynesian Villas & Bungalows, Disney’s Riviera Resort, The Cabins at Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort – A Disney Vacation Club Resort, AULANI, Disney Vacation Club Villas, Ko Olina, Hawaiʻi: Increasing from $225 to $235

The Villas at Disneyland® Hotel: Increasing from $239 to $245

 

[supercarrie]

Not surprising, it happens every year!

I fully expect the guides to push the price increases hard as a tactic to try to get people to buy with this round of incentives. In my case, I'm really happy I bought Riviera last summer, as opposed to Dec 2023/Jan 2024, right before the last price increase.

 

[TinkB278]

I know this always happens but $235 is starting to feel a bit ridiculous…

 

[tx911]

Buried in the new Winter DVC promo email is details on the price increases coming. They include:

Please see below for the new price per Vacation Point effective 2/11/25:

Disney’s Polynesian Villas & Bungalows, Disney’s Riviera Resort, The Cabins at Disney’s Fort Wilderness Resort – A Disney Vacation Club Resort, AULANI, Disney Vacation Club Villas, Ko Olina, Hawaiʻi: Increasing from $225 to $235

The Villas at Disneyland® Hotel: Increasing from $239 to $245

I’ve noticed the higher base-price resorts that start in the $230s like VDH generally have an extra $10pp incentive as well. We’ll see if that is the case in February.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I know this always happens but $235 is starting to feel a bit ridiculous…

It is almost comically ridiculous.

The properties are older, more worn down, and you get less years to stay there….. BUT we are going to charge you more!

I am glad I don’t have a job as a DVC direct guide…..

 

[grepes]

It is almost comically ridiculous.

The properties are older, more worn down, and you get less years to stay there….. BUT we are going to charge you more!

I am glad I don’t have a job as a DVC direct guide…..

At least they can give a $200... $100.. err $50 giftcard to do a tour to help make up for the increased cost!

 

[RichVIII]

It also makes small point add-ons harder to make. Yes, there is less of a delta between resale and direct on small-point contracts, but still. I guess the mouse cheese counters know if this makes any difference in buying.

 

[Wendysofftoneverland]

But raising the price on the cabins? I mean, do they actually not want to sell any CFW points?

 

[vdangelo239]

It also makes small point add-ons harder to make. Yes, there is less of a delta between resale and direct on small-point contracts, but still. I guess the mouse cheese counters know if this makes any difference in buying.

this is the biggest impact in my opinion. It will inflate the value of small point contracts on the resale market more - and also really make it hard to justify a small point add on at a Direct resort where they, esp at 50 points - will almost never qualify for any meaningful incentive.

If you are hybrid already, with the member benefits...why are you spending $235 per pt to add on 50 pts at Poly when you can get those 50 pts resale, even at an inflated price, for say $180, a large spread.

 

[pkrieger2287]

Here's a quick comparison to resale: https://dvcfan.com/purchasing-dvc/multiple-dvc-resorts-see-direct-price-increase/

 

[Brian Noble]

Because you don't know about the resale market. Or you don't want restricted points. Or a dozen other reasons.

This is not DVD's first rodeo.

 

[Disney_escape]

I know this always happens but $235 is starting to feel a bit ridiculous…

Yes, but have you seen what hotel companies are charging for regular rooms lately. I have been shocked at a few that we have done this last year.

 

[eticketplease]

this is the biggest impact in my opinion. It will inflate the value of small point contracts on the resale market more - and also really make it hard to justify a small point add on at a Direct resort where they, esp at 50 points - will almost never qualify for any meaningful incentive.

If you are hybrid already, with the member benefits...why are you spending $235 per pt to add on 50 pts at Poly when you can get those 50 pts resale, even at an inflated price, for say $180, a large spread.

You can buy and get the incentives and split the contract into smaller chunks.

At least you used to I should say not sure if that is still the case.

 

[CastAStone]

Because you don't know about the resale market. Or you don't want restricted points. Or a dozen other reasons.

This is not DVD's first rodeo.

Gotta (wait in line or pay more money to wait in a shorter line to be assigned a table to) get those “free” cokes at Epcot.

 

[CastAStone]

Four thoughts

• Every time DVC takes a price increase above inflation, their sales suffer slightly. People don’t have infinitely money and it does change the supply-demand equilibrium. Their sales were significantly stronger when DVC was a significantly better deal. Things do matter!
• It’s not surprising to see the VDH and other resorts prices converging somewhat. One might even say it was predictable. One might even have predicted it. One might now be compelled to predict in 2026 those prices will be the same.
• Even as modest is the increase is vs inflation (about 1.8% higher except VDH), it’s a mistake if their goal is maximizing sales. And it may not even work if their goal is maximizing profit. DVC has proven incapable in recent years of accurately predicting demand, and you can’t set prices well without being able to accurately predict baseline demand and the impact thereon.
• Buy resale.

 

[tx911]

Because you don't know about the resale market. Or you don't want restricted points. Or a dozen other reasons.

This is not DVD's first rodeo.

That’s Bingo for me

 

[Brian Noble]

Every time DVC takes a price increase above inflation, their sales suffer slightly.

I'm going to bet money that the overall trends have as much (or more) to do with overall attendance at the parks, background economic conditions, etc.

Attendance might be the most important--tour flow is based on people who are exposed to the kiosks, and sales are based on tour flow. Fewer people in the parks means fewer tours which means fewer sales.

And even so, my (admittedly subjective gut-feel) sense is that on a year-over-year basis, DVC has not been selling a constantly-decreasing number of points, but that's what this is arguing for.

 

[Brian Noble]

This brings me back to the observation that there are different fundamental reasons why people buy DVC.

Some people are buying strictly as a dollars-and-cents way to save on the vacation lodging they (think they) would be staying in anyway. They have spreadsheets, and NPV analyses, and all kinds of groovy things* that tell them the optimal way to stay at a DVC resort as inexpensively as possible. These people---we will call them Type 1 people---buy resale and would never consider anything else**.

I will note as an aside that Type 1 people are probably over-represented here on DISboards.

Some people are sort-of/kind-of motivated by price, but really they are "investing" in their families' future vacations. Saving money helps, but isn't the most important thing. The most important thing is just making the commitment. They can justify a direct purchase vs. Disney's prevailing rates---and can do that even if they are savvy with an NPV spreadsheet. The payoff horizon might be pretty far into the future, but it is there, and since they are thinking about their family's long-term vacation happiness, "far into the future" is fine. These folks could go either way. These are Type 2 people. They might buy resale if they know about it, and might even prefer resale because of the cost difference, but it's not a clear and obvious thing.

Finally, there are the Type 3 people. They remind me of a long-time TUGger who used to sell Hyatt timeshares in Key West. He had the structural advantage that Key West market rents are so ridiculously high that the value proposition wasn't that hard to make. But, he didn't sell it that way. He sold it by telling prospects:

It's a TOY. You are buying a TOY. Treat it like a TOY.

It's pretty much never a good idea to buy a boat. But lots of people do. And lots of people buy better boats than they "need" to in order tool around the all-sports lake they live on. I mean yes they could pull two skiers behind the boat if they wanted, but they never do. But, knowing that they could is why they bought this particular boat. Well, that and the sound system, which is bumpin'.

Type 3 folks don't really care what it costs. They have the money, they want the toy, and they are going to buy the toy. Yes, they could buy a different toy, but that's not really what they want. They want this one.

So, here's the punchline: none of those people are wrong. They are buying for different reasons, so the thing that is right for them to buy is different. Even better: an individual might be in different roles depending on when you ask them. Someone saving to get the kids into college might be a Type 1 or Type 2 buyer. When that same person sees the last kid graduate, they take a look at the brokerage accounts and think: "Well, that worked out better than I thought it would. Time to have fun!"

As a good friend put it: Thrifty ‘til fifty, then spend ‘til The End.

----------------------
*: With apologies to Arlo Guthrie

**: Interestingly enough, it is not cost-optimal to buy any DVC contract. The cost-optimal way to stay in DVC resorts is to buy a very cheap trader at some other resort, and exchange in through whatever external exchange system DVC is affiliated with at the time.

 

[MICKIMINI]

We may be looking at DVC doing a fire sale at that point if sales are not up to par. Cabins would be a logical choice from their standpoint since sales are terrible per our guide. Maybe a 2042 resort as well? He expected an increase but better discounts this go 'round so basically no wild change in the bottom line.

Holding out on purchases until you are within the 10 day recission period so you can switch to the next promotion might be a good strategy. Note that DVC will only hold that promotion for 7 days past your "tour". It makes it a strategic purchase to take a tour and then buy and stay within the 10 day recission period. Using the downpayment strategy of 3 payments at least up to now, has also been a way to jump to the next promotion.

Fine print is getting trickier!

 

[tx911]

This brings me back to the observation that there are different fundamental reasons why people buy DVC.

Some people are buying strictly as a dollars-and-cents way to save on the vacation lodging they (think they) would be staying in anyway. They have spreadsheets, and NPV analyses, and all kinds of groovy things* that tell them the optimal way to stay at a DVC resort as inexpensively as possible. These people---we will call them Type 1 people---buy resale and would never consider anything else**.

I will note as an aside that Type 1 people are probably over-represented here on DISboards.

Some people are sort-of/kind-of motivated by price, but really they are "investing" in their families' future vacations. Saving money helps, but isn't the most important thing. The most important thing is just making the commitment. They can justify a direct purchase vs. Disney's prevailing rates---and can do that even if they are savvy with an NPV spreadsheet. The payoff horizon might be pretty far into the future, but it is there, and since they are thinking about their family's long-term vacation happiness, "far into the future" is fine. These folks could go either way. These are Type 2 people. They might buy resale if they know about it, and might even prefer resale because of the cost difference, but it's not a clear and obvious thing.

Finally, there are the Type 3 people. They remind me of a long-time TUGger who used to sell Hyatt timeshares in Key West. He had the structural advantage that Key West market rents are so ridiculously high that the value proposition wasn't that hard to make. But, he didn't sell it that way. He sold it by telling prospects:



It's pretty much never a good idea to buy a boat. But lots of people do. And lots of people buy better boats than they "need" to in order tool around the all-sports lake they live on. I mean yes they could pull two skiers behind the boat if they wanted, but they never do. But, knowing that they could is why they bought this particular boat. Well, that and the sound system, which is bumpin'.

Type 3 folks don't really care what it costs. They have the money, they want the toy, and they are going to buy the toy. Yes, they could buy a different toy, but that's not really what they want. They want this one.

So, here's the punchline: none of those people are wrong. They are buying for different reasons, so the thing that is right for them to buy is different. Even better: an individual might be in different roles depending on when you ask them. Someone saving to get the kids into college might be a Type 1 or Type 2 buyer. When that same person sees the last kid graduate, they take a look at the brokerage accounts and think: "Well, that worked out better than I thought it would. Time to have fun!"

As a good friend put it: Thrifty ‘til fifty, then spend ‘til The End.

----------------------
*: With apologies to Arlo Guthrie

**: Interestingly enough, it is not cost-optimal to buy any DVC contract. The cost-optimal way to stay in DVC resorts is to buy a very cheap trader at some other resort, and exchange in through whatever external exchange system DVC is affiliated with at the time.

You forgot Type 4: Saw a bunch of other posters buying points on DISboards, and succumbed to the FOMO without regard to the financial ramifications.