Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[TikiTikiFan]

Anyone else have random bits of just frustration that we continue to get no significant news? I suppose the Assembly Bill is news which is getting folks talking again but in general... especially after seeing every other state in the US allow theme parks to reopen... its so maddening.

Just had to share that with folks that get it. I'll just randomly think about it and get so frustrated by the entire situation.

 

[AZMermaid]

Yes! I really thought we’d have at least hotel news this week. Now with the WDW 50th news today it doesn’t seem likely it’ll be today. Sigh. Maybe next week.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Yes! I really thought we’d have at least hotel news this week. Now with the WDW 50th news today it doesn’t seem likely it’ll be today. Sigh. Maybe next week.

I keep thinking I should have a DL summer trip planned on the back burner bc I know I'd go if they did... I'd love to stay onsite for once but you can't price rates right now which is a bummer.. I get why they're not opening reservations but still.

Maybe it was seeing all the happy WDW news about their anniversary that made so sad to see Disneyland still closed while WDW continues to move forward.

 

[CO2CA]

Same here, we'd definitely consider taking a summer trip if they opened. I doubt we'll have the vaccine by early-mid summer, but at least we could still wear the KN95 masks.

If I were to bet, I would say they'll reopen July 17th.

 

[montreid]

While things have rapidly improved, we need to understand where we are now compared to this summer:
ICU 215 -- that's how it was in June 2020 at the peak of that initial summer surge. About the same for rest of the numbers. So we're not really close to the October lows that had was talking reopening with pretty solid numbers.

We're absolutely going in the right direction. Daily counts need to be <300 sustained for 4+ weeks to get even close to Orange tier (Assembly bill).

 

[DLgal]

While things have rapidly improved, we need to understand where we are now compared to this summer:
ICU 215 -- that's how it was in June 2020 at the peak of that initial summer surge. About the same for rest of the numbers. So we're not really close to the October lows that had was talking reopening with pretty solid numbers.

We're absolutely going in the right direction. Daily counts need to be <300 sustained for 4+ weeks to get even close to Orange tier (Assembly bill).

The rates of all metrics have continued to decrease rapidly. Current estimates have us qualifying for Red tier on March 3 and moving there March 17.

Don't forget they look at adjusted case rates, based on testing numbers. OCs adjusted case rate is lower than the actual case rate.

The equity metric is the thing that might hold up any future moves to lower tiers. Hopefully as more of those populations in those hardest hit areas get vaccinated under priority status, we will see those numbers improve as well, or the equity metric may be eliminated as a requirement to move tiers.

 

[montreid]

The rates of all metrics have continued to decrease rapidly. Current estimates have us qualifying for Red tier on March 3 and moving there March 17.

Don't forget they look at adjusted case rates, based on testing numbers. OCs adjusted case rate is lower than the actual case rate.

The equity metric is the thing that might hold up any future moves to lower tiers. Hopefully as more of those populations in those hardest hit areas get vaccinated under priority status, we will see those numbers improve as well, or the equity metric may be eliminated as a requirement to move tiers.

All true - still high and double of where we were in late October.

On track for hitting things in March to setup for Red Tier mid/late March if all things continue to improve. The harder part is moving into orange and staying there sustained. OC got close last year. We're positioned better with the vaccine making its way through the at risk population, but it'll need to hit group 2 to really sustain a low rate to even impact the numbers we need to get to sniff yellow tier.

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedaeRates continue to improve and will be seeing the 7day lag drop into the teens next week. -- Still have a ways to go but all very encouraging compared to Jan. Just keep perspective. We're x2-3 above October levels even by the best performing metric.

 

[DLgal]

All true - still high and double of where we were in late October.

On track for hitting things in March to setup for Red Tier mid/late March if all things continue to improve. The harder part is moving into orange and staying there sustained. OC got close last year. We're positioned better with the vaccine making its way through the at risk population, but it'll need to hit group 2 to really sustain a low rate to even impact the numbers we need to get to sniff yellow tier.

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedaeRates continue to improve and will be seeing the 7day lag drop into the teens next week. -- Still have a ways to go but all very encouraging compared to Jan. Just keep perspective. We're x2-3 above October levels even by the best performing metric.

The major difference was that in October we were heading TOWARDS a major surge and we were just barely holding onto Red tier status. At this point, numbers are on a rapid and steady decline. The ICU number isn't a metric that matters at this point. NEW hospitalizations is what is important, and those have also dramatically decreased in recent days.

I am optimistic about a Disneyland opening before June, personally. I think it could theoretically happen in April, because with drastically decreasing case numbers and drastically ramped up vaccinations as expected in the coming weeks, there isn't much of a justification to keep anything closed.

 

[Epicnemesis]

I’m keeping my mouth shut on projections. I infamously said in August that the worst was behind us and that Disneyland would be open by Halloween.

 

[Skyegirl1999]

My daughter turns 8 on April 27. I have resigned myself to the fact that she won’t ride a Disney ride as a seven-year-old. I don’t think they can possibly get the go-ahead and call back CMs for anything before May, and even then, I’m sure not holding my breath.

Ironically, since age 7 is when you can ride alone, she had grand plans to ride GOTG (her favorite) alone on her 7th birthday last April. I was supposed to “chicken exit.” How things have changed since she talked about those plans a year ago...

 

[TikiTikiFan]

I’m keeping my mouth shut on projections. I infamously said in August that the worst was behind us and that Disneyland would be open by Halloween.

Oh yeah, I was riding that cheery optimism train hard and made all sorts of happy predictions for a Disneyland xmas.

I don't even want to predict anything because I'll wreck it.

 

[midnight star]

Oh yeah, I was riding that cheery optimism train hard and made all sorts of happy predictions for a Disneyland xmas.

I don't even want to predict anything because I'll wreck it.

I’m pretty sure I said it would be open by Labor Day

 

[midnight star]

Interesting Six Flags Magic mountain posted this on their ig...are they in a different theme park category than Disneyland?
Edit: maybe they’re talking about the drive thru cars?
E

 

[theluckyrabbit]

I’m keeping my mouth shut on projections. I infamously said in August that the worst was behind us and that Disneyland would be open by Halloween....

Oh yeah, I was riding that cheery optimism train hard and made all sorts of happy predictions for a Disneyland xmas.

I don't even want to predict anything because I'll wreck it.

I’m pretty sure I said it would be open by Labor Day

Don't any of you feel bad. We had someone (more than one person?) arguing ardently that the parks would be open by April 2020, that they couldn't possibly stay closed past the end of March 2020. Ahem. Sigh.

 

[ycsteves]

Interesting Six Flags Magic mountain posted this on their ig...are they in a different theme park category than Disneyland?
Edit: maybe they’re talking about the drive thru cars?
EView attachment 557729

It says with rides and talks about coasters in their description so it's safe to say they are referring to their roller coasters. However they are not specificying if it's all or some rides nor are they giving an actual date... I'm curious to see if this will actually happen. If so, I will be buying tickets!

 

[midnight star]

It says with rides and talks about coasters in their description so it's safe to say they are referring to their roller coasters. However they are not specificying if it's all or some rides nor are they giving an actual date... I'm curious to see if this will actually happen. If so, I will be buying tickets!

I wonder if there are some behind the scenes discussions happening with theme parks?

 

[ycsteves]

I wonder if there are some behind the scenes discussions happening with theme parks?

I hope so! I'm crossing my fingers for a march/April announcement about theme parks especially with New York opening up theirs as part of their "new normal" protocol. I would like for us to adopt a new normal protocol so DLR can open!!!!

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Great America in Northern California has also given a reopening date (in May I think). I don’t think they’re classified differently although I could be wrong. It makes me wonder if they’re just optimistic or don’t care and will reopen whether “allowed” or not.

 

[montreid]

Technically; spring ends June 22 -- so very doable if we're able to maintain the current trajectory. While there's bound to be a flattening of the downward slope, that is 4 months away -- an eternity in this pandemic.

Was using ICU beds status merely as a reflection of where we are at this point of time -- still recovering. Hospitalization rate isn't a metric either for tier. It's about PCR+ tests and % of population doing that; nothing mortality risk related (which tends to be much lower for most DLR going guests).

There's very good hope. Our hospital is about 80% vaccinated. Our weekly surveillance testing before the surge averaged about 1% positive, climbed to nearly 5% at the New Year and dramatically dropped as we vaccinated into January. It is now less barely registering and we have stopped the weekly swabs and making it completely voluntary.

If we can do half as good as that into the general public, it'll make a definite impact.

 

[Brysun]

Cedar Fair's CEO Richard Zimmerman in a recent earnings call was asked about his confidence in their May 22nd reopening date for Great America in California they named (and all their various parks around the US) and he replied by saying "I think we believe we can get all of our parks reopened, and we tried to pick days that that we thought made a lot of logic given the likely unfolding of the recovery in each of the states." That feels a little reminisce of last summer in California when theme parks didn't have the green light and announced their reopening dates. However, I think Zimmerman's confidence that "all" their theme parks including Knott's can open by May is a good sign of what's to come for them and therefore, Disneyland. He went on to say "I would term all of the conversations, even in California, very productive. We understand where we sit in the phase reopening of each of the economies, and we're working cooperatively and collaboratively with all the jurisdictions and all our industry partners to make sure that we move forward as quickly as is prudent. " Definitely lots of interesting bits of news coming out!