Disneyland Reopening Speculation Superthread

[Lumpy1106]

My guess is a combination of:

• Cold weather
• Post election celebrations/protests
• Thanksgiving
• Other sicknesses being mislabel

To the last point, I heard flu is down 98% this winter. What are the chances! (Yes I understand we are taking preventative measures like mask wearing and distancing, but 98%?)

I'm just going to clarify one point in your post - ICU is ICU. It doesn't have to be a COVID patient in that bed. Relevant because, even as you said, the flu numbers are way down, we do have to factor in that seasonal surge.

 

[pharmama]

Regarding kids and vaccines, my son's allergist/immunologist is under the impression that kids will definitely be included to be vaccinated under the EUA. Obviously, we will find out today, but he seemed confident last Thursday when I asked about it. Although, my kids are 14 and 16, so maybe he thought I meant MY kids being able to get it.

This is going to vary by vaccine. The Pfizer/BioNTech EUA age range goes down to 16yrs of age so at least one of your kids will likely be included in the initial eligibility (by age anyway) if the EUA is approved. Additional age cohorts will probably be added on a "rolling" basis as additional ages are included in trials in coming months. However, it appears that the US may not have extensive supply of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine for a while after the initial shipment/allocation so if your kid(s) don't get it in the intial round it may be a bit of a wait. EUA for the Moderna vaccine I believe will only be 18yrs and up.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

What are you talking about? Newsom very clearly designated the Yellow Tier as the one where he will allow theme parks to open. This happened months ago. Yellow Tier is unachievable until almost everyone has been vaccinated. If this holds, Disneyland won't open at all in 2021 either. I don't think it will hold. There are numerous legal challenges to the tiered framework and judges are starting to one by one call the restrictions "abuses of power." We shall see how long it will last.

Regarding kids and vaccines, my son's allergist/immunologist is under the impression that kids will definitely be included to be vaccinated under the EUA. Obviously, we will find out today, but he seemed confident last Thursday when I asked about it. Although, my kids are 14 and 16, so maybe he thought I meant MY kids being able to get it.

Sorry, I meant that vaccines in and of themselves weren't a requirement for opening Disneyland, meaning none of the tiers has any metric for vaccinations. If you believe that yellow tier is unachievable without widespread vaccines, I wouldn't necessarily disagree, though I don't know what % of the population would be required to do so, and it's possible that number could be lower than we might think.

Yeah, 14 and 16 y/o might be approved. One of the vaccines did include a small number of kids 12 and older, but I can't remember which one that was, and I think it was very few.

 

[pharmama]

Yeah, 14 and 16 y/o might be approved. One of the vaccines did include a small number of kids 12 and older, but I can't remember which one that was, and I think it was very few.

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine does have a 12-15yr cohort in studies but they have not included that age group in their EUA submission (nor was it included in the UK approval or Canadian one) so I assume they don't have enough data/participants in that age group yet.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

I thought this was interesting: https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/



Basically, this person ran a model trying to predict when we would reach herd immunity, which the author defined as >60% immunity. They predicted that this would happen between June and August of 2021.

Note that there are a lot of assumptions in the model that you may or may not believe (including what herd immunity means and what % you need to reach it), and the author is not an epidemiologist. Projections are ultimately still guesses despite all the math, but maybe somewhere to start. If they are right, then maybe we could see DL open in summer or maybe sooner.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

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Saw Gothic Rosie share this. Yikes, stay safe CA friends. According to this, ICU is at capacity in OC?

 

[DLgal]

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Saw Gothic Rosie share this. Yikes, stay safe CA friends. According to this, ICU is at capacity in OC?

Um, no. Not even close. The most recent report dated 12/10 indicates OC still has 12% of adult ICU staffed beds available (71 beds) in the county. There are 54% of Peds ICU beds available (37 beds).

GothicRosie made quite a leap from a completely unrelated memo.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

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Saw Gothic Rosie share this. Yikes, stay safe CA friends. According to this, ICU is at capacity in OC?

This is what the Orange County Covid-19 Dashboard is reporting, on Wednesday it was 6.7%/13.2%:



https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae

 

[DLgal]

This is what the Orange County Covid-19 Dashboard is reporting, on Wednesday it was 6.7%/13.2%:

View attachment 543356

https://ochca.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/cc4859c8c522496b9f21c451de2fedae

This isn't accurate either. This is where the numbers come from. This dashboard is a disaster, honestly. Page 5 has the hospital bed numbers for all 33 reporting hospitals in the county. This is updated daily. The dashboard isn't as accurate and hasn't yet accounted for surge capacity added and it is only updated every few days. Unfortunately, people have died, which sadly opens up more ICU beds. Since yesterday, 6 more people have been moved to the ICU and the county now has 65 available adult ICU beds.

https://www.healthdisasteroc.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=118682
(I'm just presenting this link to the actual data, so people don't get unnecessary freaked out by conjecture).

None of this bodes well for Disneyland reopening anytime soon, unfortunately. I think we are all going to have to make peace with Spring 2021 under the best case scenario and summer 2022 as the most likely scenario for reopening, because these numbers are going to continue to go in the wrong direction for several more weeks.

 

[Disney Dad ADL]

This isn't accurate either. This is where the numbers come from. This dashboard is a disaster, honestly. Page 5 has the hospital bed numbers for all 33 reporting hospitals in the county. This is updated daily. The dashboard isn't as accurate and hasn't yet accounted for surge capacity added and it is only updated every few days. Unfortunately, people have died, which sadly opens up more ICU beds. Since yesterday, 6 more people have been moved to the ICU and the county now has 65 available adult ICU beds.

https://www.healthdisasteroc.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?BlobID=118682
(I'm just presenting this link to the actual data, so people don't get unnecessary freaked out by conjecture).

None of this bodes well for Disneyland reopening anytime soon, unfortunately. I think we are all going to have to make peace with Spring 2021 under the best case scenario and summer 2022 as the most likely scenario for reopening, because these numbers are going to continue to go in the wrong direction for several more weeks.

Thanks for that link. Doesn't this also say ICU availability is 11%, which is roughly similar to what the dashboard says (unadjusted). Or am I looking at the wrong thing? The numbers the state requires don't include PICU/NICU, so I think this would be the number.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

Um, no. Not even close. The most recent report dated 12/10 indicates OC still has 12% of adult ICU staffed beds available (71 beds) in the county. There are 54% of Peds ICU beds available (37 beds).

GothicRosie made quite a leap from a completely unrelated memo.

From Gothic Rosie (who won't post if she doesn't trust her sources) regarding that post and her sources:
JUST SO YOU KNOW: OTHER SOURCES
As usual I’ve been getting a lot of pushback on my post last night. The usual comments…”I don’t mean to be rude” “I usually trust you” "My friend/spouse/neighbor that works at 'insert some government facility here' " “Just so you know” "I can't find it anywhere…so here are other sources…Just so you know….

@ktla5news reported: "In a memo to hospitals and ambulance providers sent Wednesday, Dr. Carl Schultz, the director of emergency medical services for the Orange County Health Care Agency, directed hospitals to activate their surge plans, set up alternative treatment areas and cancel all elective surgeries." AND also said: "Dr. Clayton Chau, Orange County’s health officer, discussed the situation at an afternoon news conference held after the memo was sent. “We need to make sure that all of the hospitals are aware that there are cases of people who need emergency services that are sitting in the ambulance for more than an hour, and that we would be transferring them to the next hospital, just to make sure that everybody’s understanding and prepares,” Chau said." Link: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/o-...id-19-hospitalizations-health-official-warns/

@deadline reported: “Late Wednesday night, the HCA sent a letter to hospitals, ambulance providers and 911 paramedic providers, saying the county’s health care system is “now in crisis” due to the surge in Covid patients, with more hospitals requesting diversion of ambulances to other medical centers due to patient volumes.” Link: https://deadline.com/2020/12/covid-...dical-care-medical-collapse-fears-1234654722/

 

[DLgal]

From Gothic Rosie (who won't post if she doesn't trust her sources) regarding that post and her sources:
JUST SO YOU KNOW: OTHER SOURCES
As usual I’ve been getting a lot of pushback on my post last night. The usual comments…”I don’t mean to be rude” “I usually trust you” "My friend/spouse/neighbor that works at 'insert some government facility here' " “Just so you know” "I can't find it anywhere…so here are other sources…Just so you know….

@ktla5news reported: "In a memo to hospitals and ambulance providers sent Wednesday, Dr. Carl Schultz, the director of emergency medical services for the Orange County Health Care Agency, directed hospitals to activate their surge plans, set up alternative treatment areas and cancel all elective surgeries." AND also said: "Dr. Clayton Chau, Orange County’s health officer, discussed the situation at an afternoon news conference held after the memo was sent. “We need to make sure that all of the hospitals are aware that there are cases of people who need emergency services that are sitting in the ambulance for more than an hour, and that we would be transferring them to the next hospital, just to make sure that everybody’s understanding and prepares,” Chau said." Link: https://ktla.com/news/local-news/o-...id-19-hospitalizations-health-official-warns/

@deadline reported: “Late Wednesday night, the HCA sent a letter to hospitals, ambulance providers and 911 paramedic providers, saying the county’s health care system is “now in crisis” due to the surge in Covid patients, with more hospitals requesting diversion of ambulances to other medical centers due to patient volumes.” Link: https://deadline.com/2020/12/covid-...dical-care-medical-collapse-fears-1234654722/

Yes, exactly. It was a memo indicating that it is time to enact crisis plans, including surge capacity. At no point in the memo did it say there were no more ICU beds in OC. OC hospitals have added an additional 100 or so ICU beds in the last week. ICUs in OC are not full. I was simply providing the numbers to back this up and clarify to the poster who believed what GothicRosie posted.

I live 3 miles from a major OC hospital, that has 2 locations in the county. Today the President/CEO of the hospital sent out an email (my doctors are affiliated with this hospital system) letting us know that they STILL HAVE SPACE in both regular beds and ICU, at both locations, and urged people to come to the hospital if needed, and not to postpone emergency care under the mistaken assumption that the hospital is full. He mentioned that memo and indicated that they have already created new patient care spaces and increased their capacity to serve the public who needs medical care and that they do not expect to run out of space.

The situation is serious, but it is irresponsible to post inaccurate or misleading information on social media that can make people panic. GR's claim that these memos are not always posted, and she somehow got it after it "leaked" is also wrong. The OC Health Care Agency has been posting these memos on their FB page for the last several days. It's publicly available information.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

... GR's claim that these memos are not always posted, and she somehow got it after it "leaked" is also wrong. The OC Health Care Agency has been posting these memos on their FB page for the last several days. It's publicly available information.

While it can be helpful to fill in more background information here that isn't posted other places, it isn't necessarily helpful to invalidate or shoot down other people without knowing everything that went on behind that post, e.g. who gave her that memo, when, what other info was attached to it which she was asked not to post, etc. No one person on the internet can possibly have all the information about any one subject, so it's best to post with and to give grace when we can. The goal in this superthread is not to argue about who has the most knowledge or the best stats, but to keep everyone up to date on the general situation relating to DLR's possible reopening. Right now, I think we all agree that things don't look so great and I think we all can agree that we hope that things start getting better very soon.

 

[TikiTikiFan]

Right now, I think we all agree that things don't look so great and I think we all can agree that we hope that things start getting better very soon.

I stand by what I said earlier... stay safe friends! We’ll get through this. Disneyland WILL open next year. It will get better. And when Disneyland does open I am going to be on a plane so, so, so fast.

 

[theluckyrabbit]

... And when Disneyland does open I am going to be on a plane so, so, so fast.

And we'll be right here waiting for you!

 

[DizMe]

I said this earlier, but it may have some bearing on the ICU reports/discrepencies being discussed here. Many of our hospitals in Northern California are facing a shortage of ICU staffers, which means that there may be beds for the critical patients but not enough staff to cover them all. That reduces the actual number of available beds in reality because you can't just put someone in a bed with no one available to care for them; saying you have enough beds is only relevant if you have enough staff. It's difficult because critical care workers don't really have a voice other than anecdotal, as far as I know. It would be nice to hear their views to compare to what a hospital CEO has to say. I really do hope that the reports of being at, near, or over capacity are exaggerated and that we'll see a wane in numbers soon. Honestly, I've not even been thinking about Disneyland because there are too many other things going on in my family right now and DL is down the road quite a ways for us.

 

[hiroMYhero]

Newest LA Times article posted in the app and should be in the paper tomorrow:

Martens: Disney’s California Adventure was partially reopened. But can we explore in a pandemic?
https://www.latimes.com/entertainme...nture-disneyland-pandemic-changed-safe-spaces

 

[eMoneyBug]

new hope: 2021. Jan or Feb or March? or even later? Best case scenario Feb

 

[Aurora0427]

I suspect that a lot of people have been gathering at home whether it be throwing parties, having weddings, etc. Some people are refusing to wear masks in OC as well, and also are going on vacations.

They've literally been doing this for MONTHS in Orange County. It’s just so crazy how fast the cases are skyrocketing.

 

[JoeRobe]

Not surprising news for DLP:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1331314701783998475

I've booked into the Newport for the 13th Feb............. Christmas prezzy.