Disneyland 5K, doing the math- WWYD?

[mmackeymouse]

Hey all. We are planning/hoping to do the Disneyland 5K next January. Registration doesn't come out till June, so we'll know then. Fingers crossed.

Our hope was to do VGC; the plan was to do a 1 or 2 BR. 2 BR preferred, but well...we'll see. I cannot book until the 7 month mark, as I am not an owner. I had hoped that going for a 1 or 2 BR would give us a decent chance, as those rooms at the 7 month mark are slightly more doable than the studios. However, with it being race weekend, it is booked solid. We are planning for 5 nights. The race is Friday.

We are trying to decide between 1/28-2/2 and 1/30-2/4. Herein lies the math equation.

I have a February Use Year. I currently have 2 points remaining for 2024. I intended to borrow from 2025. I have 160 points. But...potentially also borrowing from 2026 for the February nights.

If we do 1/28/-2/2, the 1/28-1/31 portion will be 194 points. So, even with my 2 points, my borrowed points, and even if I bought the additional 24 points I could buy...I am still short. The thing is...1/28 and 1/29 are currently available, and I feel like I might have a chance at those, and maybe I could luck into 1/30 on a waitlist, and maybe we could work out a split stay somewhere else. My point being....I feel like, those earlier nights probably give me a better chance at getting the room, even if it's just 2 or 3 nights.

Now, if I go with 1/30-2/4....I should be able to borrow from 2025 for 1/30-31, and still have some left over for 2/1-2/4, but I could also borrow from 2026 for those as well. Currently 2/2-2/3 are available. Maybe I might luck into 2/1 on a waitlist, but with it being race weekend, I am thinking it isn't likely that I will luck into a waitlist for the full weekend. But...at least if I do happen to get lucky, I would have enough points to cover those nights.

I am aware that I am many weeks from being able to book and a lot could change. And I am a few weeks from race registration, and a lot could change. But, we'd like to start booking airfare, and so we'd like to at least narrow down the plans a little bit.

So, with all that said, would you:

Plan for 1/28-2/2, drop back to a 1BR, so that if wait list does come through, I have the points for it.

Plan for 1/28-2/2. Hope that 1/28 and 1/29 are available, hope waitlist may come through for 1/30, and then do a split stay elsewhere?

Plan for 1/30-2/4. Hope that 2/2 and 2/3 are available. Hope waitlist comes through for the rest of the weekend and/or 2/1 if possible, and split stay elsewhere?

Any other recommendations?

 

[disland7]

Just commenting to add my experience last January. I own at VGC and exclusively book 2 bedrooms. Typically I have not had much problem if I book before 8 months or so prior to travel. Race weekend I missed the 11 month mark and tried to book 2 weeks or so later - Friday and Saturday were already gone and I waitlisted them. That wait list never came through and I had to split stay. Fast forward to this 11 month mark, I was a little late again (I can't remember how late -I'm in grad school and must have had a test that week). Gone again and I have waitlisted. I wonder how many people grab those and sell them as a confirmed reservation.

 

[mmackeymouse]

Just commenting to add my experience last January. I own at VGC and exclusively book 2 bedrooms. Typically I have not had much problem if I book before 8 months or so prior to travel. Race weekend I missed the 11 month mark and tried to book 2 weeks or so later - Friday and Saturday were already gone and I waitlisted them. That wait list never came through and I had to split stay. Fast forward to this 11 month mark, I was a little late again (I can't remember how late -I'm in grad school and must have had a test that week). Gone again and I have waitlisted. I wonder how many people grab those and sell them as a confirmed reservation.

I suspect this as well. Which is a pretty crummy thing to do.

It's one thing if you book that time frame because you are hoping or expecting to do the race, and maybe it doesn't work out, or you change your mind, so you have the reservation already.

But, the people who specifically do that, because they know it's a hot ticket item....I think that's kind of stinky.