https://www.wsj.com/business/hospit...sking-in-holiday-cheer-b0ca3e17?siteid=yhoof2
Cruise Lines Are Basking in Holiday Cheer
This ‘wave season’ is shaping up to be not only the strongest since the pandemic but also the best ever
By
Spencer Jakab
Dec. 16, 2024 - 5:30 am EST
It is the most wonderful time of the year for cruise fans. The industry has plenty to be pleased about too.
“Wave Season,” which traditionally runs from around Christmas through the following March, is the top booking period of the year for cruise lines and when the most promotions are available, even for voyages that could be hundreds of days away. Marketing materials from
Celebrity Cruises RCL, a subsidiary of Royal Caribbean Group, describe wave season as “Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Presidents Day all rolled into one.”
Well, maybe not this year. Cruise lines have been doing a better job of selling tickets months in advance, which gives them less incentive to offer steep discounts. Instead, the goodies might be drink packages, dining upgrades, onboard Wi-Fi, excursions or a free second guest. Analysts at Truist estimated earlier this month that voyages in 2025 were by then booked some 10% to 15% ahead of historical levels. By contrast, the number of available berths has increased by only around 5%.
When cruises first resumed after shutting down completely because of the Covid-19 pandemic, last-minute deals were plentiful and decks were uncrowded. But by last year, the pendulum had swung in the opposite direction in terms of the number of days ahead that people were paying for cruises, according to Michael Erstad, a senior analyst covering the consumer sector at research firm M Science.
“We’re still seeing that elevated booking window,” he said.
Combined with greater success in preselling onboard extras, that trend has given a hefty financial cushion to cruise lines that are still repairing their balance sheets from the pandemic. For example, Carnival said that customer deposits had reached a record $6.8 billion at the end of the third quarter, which is almost 40% more than what it held in the same period five years ago, shortly before the industry entered its crisis.
Even when these trends seemed obvious and cruise executives were reaching for superlatives to describe last year’s wave season,
cruise lines’ shares were oddly cheap. They have since responded, with shares of the big three oceangoing companies, Carnival, Royal Caribbean Group and
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings NCLH, up by 54% year-to-date, on average.
Is there more where that came from? It is a question of what is priced in, but there still seems to be upside for Carnival and Norwegian, the two relative laggards. Even after their furious rallies, they fetch modest discounts to their average multiple of forward enterprise value to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization in the decade before the pandemic.
Royal Caribbean, which has most deftly navigated the pandemic, now trades at a healthy premium, but even it could enjoy further gains given expectations of an imminent upgrade of its debt to investment grade. In October, despite a hit from a hurricane, the company predicted that its net yield, an industry measure of revenue less commissions and other costs per available cruise day, would be 10.8% to 11.3% higher in 2024 versus last year—a chunky gain. It announced on Wednesday that it is raising its dividend by 38%.
The industry’s pricing power looks strong. At a time of inflation in the cost of vacationing and stretched middle-class household budgets, cruise lines have become more competitive.
In the third quarter of 2019, for example, Truist calculates that Carnival had the lowest major cruise company ticket price per passenger cruise day, at $174. A Caribbean hotel night averaged $150 that quarter. Fast forward five years and Carnival’s cost has risen by just 7.1% to $186 a night while the average Caribbean hotel is 18.6% more expensive at $235.
Some domestic options have become a good deal pricier too. While detailed data isn’t available for the cost of hotels and meals in the area, one measure of
Disney DIS -0.43%decrease; red down pointing triangle
World ticket prices, a five-day “Park Hopper,” is
up more than 100% in a decade, according to tracker MickeyVisit.
Another factor that is difficult to glean from headline ticket prices is that cruises, which are more likely to be sold through travel agents than other vacations, increasingly are being booked directly with the cruise line itself these days, according to some analysts.
Those foregone commissions can boost profitability considerably. So can the advent of private island destinations—investments that all cruise lines sailing to the Caribbean have pursued. They save cruise lines money on fuel and logistics because they often are a shorter sail from their ports than some traditional destinations, which have become crowded. And onshore spending accrues to the cruise line instead of local merchants.
Of course, the main competition for a cruise is another cruise, and that is where the news is especially good—for now at least.
There has been a flurry of
shiny, sometimes enormous ships ordered. Disney, for example, said it would “turbocharge” its experiences unit, with special emphasis on expanding its still
fairly small cruise line. But, because of the considerable lag time in ordering and outfitting a new vessel in one of the handful of shipyards that specialize in cruise ships, the next few years will continue to have modest growth in supply. Truist estimates it will be 2% a year between 2026 and 2028.
Even if the economy softens next year, cruise lines shares should remain buoyant.
Write to Spencer Jakab at
Spencer.Jakab@wsj.com