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[RivShore]

It’s like linear, there’s a reducing market but it can still provide returns.

One difference is that theaters keep achieving new revenue records (just this year - the biggest grossing R rated movie, biggest animated movie, biggest Thanksgiving, etc.). I don't think linear can point to any successes like that, except for maybe super bowl viewership the last few years. I never would have expected theaters to stay this relevant in the new streaming environment but who knows if it will last - there's a lot more change and creative destruction to come for the overall industry.

 

[RivShore]

I would say the death of non-conventional theaters is greatly exaggerated. Our EPIC theaters, with the amenities, hold up pretty well in terms of attendance. There are some films that practically demand the EPIC XL experience, but we often go to the smaller theaters at EPIC on Tuesdays for $6 and still get the full recliners, etc.

AMC appears to have done pretty well this past week.

"The Company roared to its highest domestic revenue (admissions revenue plus food and beverage, including merchandise) on the weekend before Thanksgiving in AMC’s 104-year history."

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amc-theatres-total-revenue-domestically-141500272.html

That is a big part of it, a single event/experience (i.e. more expensive) theater can bring in much more revenue vs. the old multiplex.

 

[wabbott]

One difference is that theaters keep achieving new revenue records (just this year - the biggest grossing R rated movie, biggest animated movie, biggest Thanksgiving, etc.). I don't think linear can point to any successes like that, except for maybe super bowl viewership the last few years. I never would have expected theaters to stay this relevant in the new streaming environment but who knows if it will last - there's a lot more change and creative destruction to come for the overall industry.

I think movies have become sort of a "destination" thing for couples or families, like a night out to a good restaurant, or sporting event. Something to do to escape the everyday drama we all face living our lives. Too expensive nowadays to do weekly, it is now an "event." But it must be entertaining.

I ran across this mini bio of one of Disney's more successful producers - Bill Anderson. Not a bad theory of movie-making, imo.

https://d23.com/walt-disney-legend/bill-anderson/

“Tell a good story in a lighthearted manner. Family entertainment should be fun; life is melodramatic enough.”

 

[RivShore]

Theaters are having a great weekend with 3 tentpole films to fill seats.

Doesn’t change that for the first 9 months of the year AMC Theaters was down nearly 14% in attendance. Cinemark theaters also down 11% in attendance for the year. Haven’t checked others but a weekend blip does not save the overall trend of less people going to the movie theaters.

Moana 2 is going to blow away what Frozen 2 did for an opening weekend, it’s still trending for less people to see it than Frozen 2.

Are the theater revenue numbers down that much too or are they making some of it up with higher ticket prices, "experience" surcharges and increased snack costs?

Really surprised the M2 is doing so well with it's middling reviews.

 

[HokieRaven5]

Are the theater revenue numbers down that much too or are they making some of it up with higher ticket prices, "experience" surcharges and increased snack costs?

Really surprised the M2 is doing so well with it's middling reviews.

It’s a mixed bag on revenue/earnings. AMC revenue for the year was down 10% and operating income dropped another 2% to a loss of $217M through 9 months.

Cinemark is faring better. Revenue is down 8% but they are netting a profit of $258.4M up from $206.8M same point last year.

ETA: Both are down 6-8% in concession revenue from 2023 as well

Also considering Moana 2 has been a top 5 streaming movie since Disney+ has existed it’s easy to see why it did so well and is review proof on its opening weekend.

 

[hertamaniac]

I think movies have become sort of a "destination" thing for couples or families, like a night out to a good restaurant, or sporting event. Something to do to escape the everyday drama we all face living our lives. Too expensive nowadays to do weekly, it is now an "event." But it must be entertaining.

Regal Cinemas has enticed a friend of mine to spend $20/month for unlimited movies (sans IMAX) with a modest discount on popcorns/drinks/snacks. He is taking full advantage of it by going at least 4X/month. He lives approximately 2 miles from the theater so time/fuel to/from is negligible.

There is a sweet spot for ticket pricing hoping to backload on concession sales.

 

[HokieRaven5]

One difference is that theaters keep achieving new revenue records (just this year - the biggest grossing R rated movie, biggest animated movie, biggest Thanksgiving, etc.). I don't think linear can point to any successes like that, except for maybe super bowl viewership the last few years. I never would have expected theaters to stay this relevant in the new streaming environment but who knows if it will last - there's a lot more change and creative destruction to come for the overall industry.

Individual films have found success in this new market and movie going has become more event based than what it used to be.

For Disney though just going off the last 2 quarters that include Deadpool&Wolverine/Inside Out 2 revenue figures:

Linear Networks: $5.124B revenue $1.464B OI
Content Sales/Licensing (Includes Theatrical Revenue and Home Video Purchases): $4.697B revenue $570M OI

Theatrical distribution for Disney did worse in fiscal 2024 than 2023 mostly because Avatar was a juggernaut compared to everything else.

 

[RivShore]

Also considering Moana 2 has been a top 5 streaming movie since Disney+ has existed it’s easy to see why it did so well and is review proof on its opening weekend.

That is very true, there was that built in demand from Moana 1 being a worldwide streaming phenomenon. Hopefully it ends up having some legs beyond this weekend.

Which brings me to a Disney management question - if the press can be believed, Moana 2 was going to be a D+ series until Iger said, no it will be a big hit in theaters, lets make it a major motion picture. From the press I remember, Iger was given sole credit for that move, and if true, it makes it seem like the next layer of management is really missing that kind of vision, when it comes to decisions like this.

 

[HokieRaven5]

That is very true, there was that built in demand from Moana 1 being a worldwide streaming phenomenon. Hopefully it ends up having some legs beyond this weekend.

Which brings me to a Disney management question - if the press can be believed, Moana 2 was going to be a D+ series until Iger said, no it will be a big hit in theaters, lets make it a major motion picture. From the press I remember, Iger was given sole credit for that move, and if true, it makes it seem like the next layer of management is really missing that kind of vision, when it comes to decisions like this.

Yeah the D+ Series was announced in 2020 and slated to be released in 2023. So all of that original planning came under Chapek.

Iger formally announced the shift to a theatrical release February of this year. Iger still falls under a more classic vision of how Disney should operate where each segment can benefit from another.

Just reminds me of that 1957 Disney Corporate Web representation of the company’s goals/outlooks and how each industry can help the other:

 

[HokieRaven5]

Solid estimated $221M domestic and $386M global debut for a previously Disney+ series turned movie though. Good enough to already be top 10 revenue domestically and top 15 revenue globally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1863262025863843846

 

[wabbott]

https://www.latimes.com/entertainment-arts/business/story/2024-12-01/moana-2-disney-streaming

‘Moana 2’ was destined for streaming. Now it’s breaking box office records

“Moana 2” was originally intended as a series for the Disney+ streaming service. But the company changed course and decided it deserved a theatrical release.

By Samantha MasunagaStaff Writer
Dec. 1, 2024 - 8:39 AM PST

 

[wabbott]

https://www.wsj.com/business/media/...-with-221-million-haul-5376efde?siteid=yhoof2

‘Moana 2’ Lifts Box Office to Thanksgiving Record With $221 Million Haul
Moviegoers flock to the cineplex to see the Disney sequel; ‘Wicked’ and ‘Gladiator II’ continue strong runs

by Robbie Whelan - WSJ
Dec. 1, 2024 - 1:10 pm EST

Disney’s “Moana 2” sailed to a blockbuster holiday opening in theaters, leading the box office to its strongest-ever Thanksgiving stretch.

“Moana 2” earned $221 million in domestic ticket sales between Wednesday and Sunday, the strongest five-day domestic Thanksgiving opening of all time. The solid debut for the animated feature, in which a Polynesian teenager goes on a quest to find an ancient lost island, is nearly double the $125 million previous record set by “Frozen II” over the same period in 2019, according to box office tracer Comscore.

Strong sales for “Moana 2” as well as the continued success of Universal’s hit movie musical “Wicked” and Paramount’s action film “Gladiator II,” collectively led to a record-breaking Thanksgiving weekend. Overall, theaters in the U.S. and Canada sold $420 million in movie tickets over the five-day period, the best-ever Thanksgiving haul, topping $315 million in ticket sales during the same period in 2018, Comscore said. Families gathering for a holiday trip to the cinema had a diverse menu to choose from this year.

“Wicked,” an epic musical prequel to “The Wizard of Oz,” starring pop singer Ariana Grande and Broadway star Cynthia Erivo, raked in $117.5 million domestically during the five-day period. That lifted its total domestic haul to $262.4 million.

“Gladiator II,” the sequel to the Best Picture-winning Roman Empire thriller, colonized a formidable portion of the box office as well, earning $44 million over the period and bringing its domestic total to $111.2 million. Beyond these three tentpoles, movie theaters had a little something for everyone during the holiday break. The lineup spanned “Red One,” a goofy, Christmas-themed comedic thriller, horror film “Heretic” and art-house titles including comedic dramas “Anora” and “A Real Pain.”

For the full year, the total industrywide box-office gross could approach last year’s level of $9 billion, a surprising outcome considering disruptions from last year’s dual writers and actors’ strikes, said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore.“This combination of movies was irresistible to moviegoers,” he said. “It’s reinvigorated the marketplace in a monumental way.” “

It has been eight years since Disney released “Moana,” an animated adventure feature about a young Polynesian heroine fighting to reverse a blight on her island homeland.

The film, which featured Auliʻi Cravalho in the title role and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson as the tattooed demigod Maui, was boosted by hit songs like “How Far I’ll Go” and “You’re Welcome,” written by star Broadway composer Lin-Manuel Miranda. It earned $248.8 million domestically and $643.3 million worldwide during its entire theatrical run—a solid performance for Disney, but not a runaway hit like the two movies of the “Frozen” franchise.

Since then, however, “Moana” has taken on a new life on the streaming service Disney+, where it has consistently been one of the most-watched movies in recent years.

“Moana 2” benefited from a whirlwind marketing campaign that positioned the movie near the center of Disney’s efforts to turn around its struggling movie studio.Walt Disney Animation Studios had initially planned to follow up the original movie with a multi-episode series on Disney+, but the company said in February that it had decided to pull it out of the streaming queue and reposition it as a feature film.

With the success of the opening of “Moana 2,” Disney-owned studios now lay claim to the top three strongest domestic box-office opening weekends of the year. Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” opened in June to $154.2 million and went on to become the highest-grossing animated feature ever, while Marvel Studios’ “Deadpool & Wolverine” made its debut to $211.4 million in July.

Write to Robbie Whelan at robbie.whelan@wsj.com

 

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2024/12/moana-2-box-office-marketing-disney-1236190529/

Creating Big Waves: How Disney’s Marketing Brought The Masses Back For ‘Moana 2’; Sequel’s Promo Campaign Worth $100M+

By Anthony D'Alessandro
December 1, 2024 - 1:50pm PST

 

[Cfabar1]

https://deadline.com/2024/12/moana-2-box-office-marketing-disney-1236190529/

Creating Big Waves: How Disney’s Marketing Brought The Masses Back For ‘Moana 2’; Sequel’s Promo Campaign Worth $100M+

By Anthony D'Alessandro
December 1, 2024 - 1:50pm PST

This was the type of thing Ike Permultrer always wondered about. How profitable are these films.

 

[mdmost]

This was the type of thing Ike Permultrer always wondered about. How profitable are these films.

It will get to half a billion dollars next weekend and will probably finish in the 700-800 million range. For a movie that was supposed to be limited to a Disney+ series. Now, it will be infinitely rewatchable on Disney+ like its predecessor which will keep subscriptions going. It's also easily going to get a 3rd movie like Toy Story and Frozen sequels were able to create for Disney/Pixar.

 

[HokieRaven5]

It will get to half a billion dollars next weekend and will probably finish in the 700-800 million range. For a movie that was supposed to be limited to a Disney+ series. Now, it will be infinitely rewatchable on Disney+ like its predecessor which will keep subscriptions going. It's also easily going to get a 3rd movie like Toy Story and Frozen sequels were able to create for Disney/Pixar.

I was figuring it would probably get $1B WW or more before reviews, this weekend doesn’t change much on that but we’ll see how it holds.

Wicked is on an interesting path where it could become the first to gross $500M at the domestic box office and not cross the Billion worldwide. Though re-releases like singalongs, Oscar Season, and the likely next year before part 2 will give it boosts.