DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[bcla]

As a brand, The Walt Disney Company isn't reliant on just the parks and resorts. It seems really odd to see that studio entertainment is relatively small, but it's the intellectual property that drives much of the other stuff including some network programming and the experiences at parks. I suppose ABC and ESPN could theoretically survive without Mickey Mouse, Star Wars, and Marvel, but certainly not Disney's theme parks. I think this is 2019:

 

[RivShore]

Disney is definitely not going to break a profit. They just opened some resorts and restaurants. They’re probably looking at q3 or 4 before they have a chance to be profitable.

Did you not see last quarter (Sep-Dec)- 2nd best profit in park history:

“Our domestic parks and resorts achieved all-time revenue and operating income despite the Omicron surge”

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando...y-parks-rebound-post-second-best-quarter-ever

I would expect even better results in the next report.

 

[RivShore]

As a brand, The Walt Disney Company isn't reliant on just the parks and resorts. It seems really odd to see that studio entertainment is relatively small, but it's the intellectual property that drives much of the other stuff including some network programming and the experiences at parks. I suppose ABC and ESPN could theoretically survive without Mickey Mouse, Star Wars, and Marvel, but certainly not Disney's theme parks. I think this is 2019:

Interesting. Do you have the same for Profit breakdown?

 

[Dcgc28]

Did you not see last quarter (Sep-Dec)- 2nd best profit in park history:

“Our domestic parks and resorts achieved all-time revenue and operating income despite the Omicron surge”

https://www.mynews13.com/fl/orlando...y-parks-rebound-post-second-best-quarter-ever

I would expect even better results in the next report.

I did not see it but thank you for the information, I would’ve bet a bottom dollar they wouldn’t be in profit until more stuff opened.

 

[RivShore]

I did not see it but thank you for the information, I would’ve bet a bottom dollar they wouldn’t be in profit until more stuff opened.

You would have thought! But I think they were/are running so lean with employees and with stuff still slimmed down (menus) and shut down (entertainment), while just as many visitors spend just as much money as years past, that they are pulling in big profits...for now...

 

[Disney_lost_it]

Disney is definitely not going to break a profit. They just opened some resorts and restaurants. They’re probably looking at q3 or 4 before they have a chance to be profitable.

stock price is almost back to the COVID park closure lows. There was the 2 week collapse to $80 when all of the parks\ships were at $0 revenue.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

I did not see it but thank you for the information, I would’ve bet a bottom dollar they wouldn’t be in profit until more stuff opened.

Just some anecdotal points about why they may be soaring again. Encanto did amazingly, which i would assume led to higher streaming subs. The parks are BUMPIN, hard to find a hotel through the rest of the year, especially Deluxe. Higher prices don't seem to be pushing people away currently, and there is so much pent up demand, that to me if they don't have a few strong quarters this year i'd be shocked.

 

[RivShore]

Maybe the beginning of companies saying NO to China:

https://nypost.com/2022/05/03/sony-stands-up-to-chicoms-on-statue-of-liberty/

 

[DeeBee3]

Stocks will continue to fall generally all around. We are heading for (if not already in) a recession. This has no end in sight. Did you see the latest info about our trade deficit? "US trade deficit widened to record high of $109.8 billion in March." Inflation at 40-year highs. It's never ending. Lots of bad decisions all around.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Yes, I'm troubled that the stock is hitting a 52 week low. So troubled that I wound up buying more! I figure its bound to go up. There is more value in that company that its current stock price would indicate, IMHO. But I'd feel better if there was a change at the top.

TBH Disney is not a great stock choice at the moment. Their troubles are not over (for MANY reasons) and they are likely to go down before they go back up. EVENTUALLY the stock will recover i'm sure. Just saying there are better investments for your money that are not as 'eventual'.

If you want to keep purchasing I would DCA very cautiously. The 116 support was broken today. Tomorrow we may have a relief rally...maybe and that's only because Microsoft saved the market's behinds. But in general the next stop is low 100's. That would seem like a good place to start moving the chips in if you really want more Disney stock (Although I recommend looking around at all the fire sales around you). Let's hope it finds support there because if it somehow breaks 100 we're for sure looking at an $85 retest. Going back to 85 would be an unmitigated disaster. Even low 100s is absolutely dreadful. Heck right now at 115 is almost unfathomable considering in 2015 the stock was at 118.

I mean we can be in love with Disney...we can hope for the best with the stock we own...but closing your eyes to the reality of the market and not seeing the macro and micro trends is not what makes a good investor. The trend is your friend.

100% this. Very good assessment.

Where does Disney go to increase shareholder value? If the warning bell of Netflix that subscription market is saturated, and Star Wars ideology that the force is everyone flopped, and sports via ESPN is saturated, what is the next revenue stream for growth? Not parks, they are overloaded and priced at max, Marvel franchise fraying at edge in the international market. Online gaming perhaps? I can understand the concept of subscription models being nirvana, the regular and uninterrupted dipping into consumers bank accounts, rarely reviewed or stopped. But if Disney+ is indeed saturated, then growth by buying other video on demand providers to keep the subscription dollars flowing? Which of the four pillars that are movies, parks, sports, and TV can carry the stock back to $200 and beyond? Did I miss a fifth pillar? Sell magic band technology to other theme park operators for use and licensing fees? Would like to hear others view of where growth will come for Disney.

Separate stock from revenue. They do not need a big source of revenue to see their stock go back up. They were pacing $200 at their current revenue.

In my opinion, the FIRST thing Disney has to do is get back consumer confidence. They have managed to single handedly anger both the liberal and conservative bases... and that's just not smart. They need to find a way to get back in good with the customer and I have absolutely ZERO idea how they are going to do that other than time to build back that trust in the brand. The brand still has value - but they have needlessly eroded it. That alone would probably propel their stock back into the upper 100's.

Revenue growth is largely organic. They are sitting on a TREASURE TROVE of IP from Fox right now. That's discarding their IP from Marvel, Disney, Pixar, Lucas Arts, Muppets, Pooh, etc.... They have more IP than they could possibly know what to do with, and they have a distribution stream that is unmatched by any other entertainment company. They do not need another leg - they can build their current ones quite a bit.

But again, nothing they do will mean squat if they don't regain that all-mighty consumer confidence.

 

[RivShore]

Interesting discussion with a former CEO on the current state of Disney. He ends the discussion with a similar take as TiggerBouncy - WDW must win back the consumer - all of them.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disn...o-ce-os-says-harvard-professor-142706701.html

 

[OKW Lover]

In my opinion, the FIRST thing Disney has to do is get back consumer confidence. They have managed to single handedly anger both the liberal and conservative bases... and that's just not smart. They need to find a way to get back in good with the customer and I have absolutely ZERO idea how they are going to do that other than time to build back that trust in the brand.

I think a good first step would be a change in top management. Somebody with the reputation of being creative and attentive to business interests. Somebody who can re-build trust in the brand both inside and outside. Hopefully there is such a person.

 

[RivShore]

And the lawsuits begin...

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...-dissolution-say-it-violates-taxpayer-rights/

 

[OKW Lover]

And the lawsuits begin...

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/l...-dissolution-say-it-violates-taxpayer-rights/

Interesting. I'm a little surprised this isn't a class action suite.

 

[Jrb1979]

I think a good first step would be a change in top management. Somebody with the reputation of being creative and attentive to business interests. Somebody who can re-build trust in the brand both inside and outside. Hopefully there is such a person.

Fans may want that but I'm not so sure the board agrees. Why change anything when parks are busier then ever? I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of the things they have implemented they have always wanted to. Covid just accelerated that.

 

[OKW Lover]

Fans may want that but I'm not so sure the board agrees. Why change anything when parks are busier then ever? I wouldn't be surprised that a lot of the things they have implemented they have always wanted to. Covid just accelerated that.

Actually, I think the board may agree. Shareholders are very concerned at the current low stock price. I would think the board sees that and also the loss of reputation the company has experienced.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

Actually, I think the board may agree. Shareholders are very concerned at the current low stock price. I would think the board sees that and also the loss of reputation the company has experienced.

Is it a result of the market or incompetence is the question. Based on the way Disney is trending, I think you could blame it on the market. When you compare Disney to their contemporaries, most are in the same boat, but their earnings would make you think all their stocks would be soaring. CEO’s don’t typically get the ax when they’re company is performing. they can’t control the market

 

[TiggerBouncy]

Is it a result of the market or incompetence is the question. Based on the way Disney is trending, I think you could blame it on the market. When you compare Disney to their contemporaries, most are in the same boat, but their earnings would make you think all their stocks would be soaring. CEO’s don’t typically get the ax when they’re company is performing. they can’t control the market

You can blame some of the stock price on the market, for sure. However, you can't blame the culture-war feud that Chapek got into on the market. Any way you slice it, RIGHT NOW, Disney's brand value has taken a hit. Even if they win the fight with Florida, they still lose. They have lost confidence from over half of their customer base. That has nothing to do with the market - that has purely to do with company messaging.

The first axe already fell in one exec that left, but I do not think he will be the last one.

Chapek has done good for the numbers, but he's been a PR NIGHTMARE in his fights with Hollywood and Government.

The problem right now is brand erosion, and the board HAS GOT to be aware of that.

 

[Aluminum Falcon]

You can blame some of the stock price on the market, for sure. However, you can't blame the culture-war feud that Chapek got into on the market. Any way you slice it, RIGHT NOW, Disney's brand value has taken a hit. Even if they win the fight with Florida, they still lose. They have lost confidence from over half of their customer base. That has nothing to do with the market - that has purely to do with company messaging.

The first axe already fell in one exec that left, but I do not think he will be the last one.

Chapek has done good for the numbers, but he's been a PR NIGHTMARE in his fights with Hollywood and Government.

The problem right now is brand erosion, and the board HAS GOT to be aware of that.

I just don't understand how you can be talking about brand erosion, as they say, numbers don't lie and Disneys numbers paint a very different picture of brand value. We can agree that the PR hit at least in the short term probably isn't great, (you can chalk it up to a rookie CEO learning the ropes). Outside of the clickbait articles though, I don't think at this point parents are telling their kids they can't go to Disney, purchase a Mirabel doll, watch Disney channel, ESPN, ect, because of their political stance. These instances come up time and again, (I'm looking at you NFL) and it almost always turns out to be virtue signaling without actual pull through.

 

[TiggerBouncy]

I just don't understand how you can be talking about brand erosion, as they say, numbers don't lie and Disneys numbers paint a very different picture of brand value. We can agree that the PR hit at least in the short term probably isn't great, (you can chalk it up to a rookie CEO learning the ropes). Outside of the clickbait articles though, I don't think at this point parents are telling their kids they can't go to Disney, purchase a Mirabel doll, watch Disney channel, ESPN, ect, because of their political stance. These instances come up time and again, (I'm looking at you NFL) and it almost always turns out to be virtue signaling without actual pull through.

Click-bait aside, being a Disney enthusiast and a Conservative, I PERSONALLY KNOW about 40-50% of my friends who go to Disney are talking about cutting back their trips and/or cancelling them altogether.

The Disney+ subscription numbers are down.

The stock has taken a hit (again, more than JUST THE MARKET would dictate).

Conservatives listen to elected representatives, and right now those representatives are on an all our culture war with Disney.

If you do not believe that any of this is having an effect on the brand, then I don't know what I could possibly tell a person standing in a puddle that water is wet.