DAS changes coming WDW May 20/ DL June 18, 2024

[marikujawa]

I sm also a data person - Agreeing with lanejudy on this one.
This is a copy of what I posted almost 200 pages back about his observations

There has been a lot of discussion on this thread, with a lot of people accepting everything he has written as 'Proof'. I am pointing out some things here and don't think this 'proof' should be discussed here anymore.
ONLY DISNEY KNOWS THE ACTUAL NUMBER, anything else is a guess.

He had people watching everyone who entered a particular attraction at a particular 1 hour time of day on 9/13/2023. His people were just counting numbers entering the Standby and LL entrance. Those may or may not reflect what goes on other times, especially for guests using DAS.

He's making a lot of assumptions to come up with his figures. His assumptions included:

• Observations made reflected what would be seen other times of day (his observations were made between 5 and 9pm).
• That his observations were correct (for example, Haunted Mansion between 5 and 6pm, they reported counting 710 entering the Standby line and 923 in the LL).
• The small number of guests on VIP tours during the observation times reflected VIP tour use. I've personally seen 2 or 3 groups of VIP tours getting on an attraction during the few minutes I'm getting on an attraction during the day on some days. I personally would expect more VIP tours during the day and fewer in the evening.
• attractions have a maximum capacity of 300 per hour for Genie+ allocation, which is a static number. He admits that number should be taken with a grain of salt. He/we don't know whether ALL attractions have the same Genie+ allocation per hour AND/OR whether the allocation per hour is the same for all hours of the day.
• Genie+ has a 1 hour return time, so the guest using LL during his count included only the 300 Genie+ allocated for that hour. Guests frequently post that they were able to use Genie+ 5 minutes before and 15 minutes after their 1 hour window. The 'unknowable' part is how many in his count included people using that 'expanded window'
• There is no way to count Rider Swap (which he conceded) or people using LL with Guest Recovery Passes (for example, if Space Mountain had been down for a while, guests who had Genie+ while the ride was down might have gotten a Guest Recovery Pass allowing entry into another attraction).

He's extrapolating all that to come up with his numbers. A few numbers/assumptions being different would make a big difference in the end result.
Some other confounding factors include:

• guests with a DAS Return Time have a beginning time to use it, but it can be used any time after that until the attraction or park closes. So, people using DAS during the one hour observation period could have received that Return Time many hours before.
• guests with disabilities don't use all attractions equally. Many have disabilities that make attractions like Space Mountain or 7 Dwarfs inappropriate for them.

All respect, but his analysis is quite sophisticated and not at all in the category of “just a guess.”

 

[mistysue]

I sm also a data person - Agreeing with lanejudy on this one.
This is a copy of what I posted almost 200 pages back about his observations

There has been a lot of discussion on this thread, with a lot of people accepting everything he has written as 'Proof'. I am pointing out some things here and don't think this 'proof' should be discussed here anymore.
ONLY DISNEY KNOWS THE ACTUAL NUMBER, anything else is a guess.

He had people watching everyone who entered a particular attraction at a particular 1 hour time of day on 9/13/2023. His people were just counting numbers entering the Standby and LL entrance. Those may or may not reflect what goes on other times, especially for guests using DAS.

He's making a lot of assumptions to come up with his figures. His assumptions included:

• Observations made reflected what would be seen other times of day (his observations were made between 5 and 9pm).
• That his observations were correct (for example, Haunted Mansion between 5 and 6pm, they reported counting 710 entering the Standby line and 923 in the LL).
• The small number of guests on VIP tours during the observation times reflected VIP tour use. I've personally seen 2 or 3 groups of VIP tours getting on an attraction during the few minutes I'm getting on an attraction during the day on some days. I personally would expect more VIP tours during the day and fewer in the evening.
• attractions have a maximum capacity of 300 per hour for Genie+ allocation, which is a static number. He admits that number should be taken with a grain of salt. He/we don't know whether ALL attractions have the same Genie+ allocation per hour AND/OR whether the allocation per hour is the same for all hours of the day.
• Genie+ has a 1 hour return time, so the guest using LL during his count included only the 300 Genie+ allocated for that hour. Guests frequently post that they were able to use Genie+ 5 minutes before and 15 minutes after their 1 hour window. The 'unknowable' part is how many in his count included people using that 'expanded window'
• There is no way to count Rider Swap (which he conceded) or people using LL with Guest Recovery Passes (for example, if Space Mountain had been down for a while, guests who had Genie+ while the ride was down might have gotten a Guest Recovery Pass allowing entry into another attraction).

He's extrapolating all that to come up with his numbers. A few numbers/assumptions being different would make a big difference in the end result.
Some other confounding factors include:

• guests with a DAS Return Time have a beginning time to use it, but it can be used any time after that until the attraction or park closes. So, people using DAS during the one hour observation period could have received that Return Time many hours before.
• guests with disabilities don't use all attractions equally. Many have disabilities that make attractions like Space Mountain or 7 Dwarfs inappropriate for them.

Totally agreeing with you about the two random sample dates not being nearly enough data to conclude much of anything, but I feel like some of your latter points not really matter. If it's at the same hour of the day, I think issues like tour guides or -5 mins/+15 mins or saving up DAS use until later are going to average out.
I wish he had the foresight to have done this weekly maybe 5-6PM every Monday for a year or whatever. That might actually have the sort of numbers to give a general idea if a trend occurred. Not even because I want to pass judgment, I just find data like this interesting. I can spend hours on thrilldata for no real reason just to know things.

That idea of 300 G+ cap is interesting, gives a different perspective on seeing 900 people enter that line. I have anecdotal evidence that is even worse, but nothing concrete or consistent enough to pinpoint much of anything besides unfortunate personal timing.

 

[nalababybear]

All respect, but his analysis is quite sophisticated and not at all in the category of “just a guess.”

Detailed yes. Precise - not really (blue means a lot). Broad application - no.

Total Load capacity is the best datapoint for that hour for sure. The rest, is quite a bit of extrapolation.

 

[mistysue]

Fortunately there is a lot more to do in America than just going to Disney World. International visitors don’t actually *have* to stay for longer, and in fact it’s quite unusual for most US visitors to book 14+ day stays. If you feel so insistent that you MUST know before you book and do not wish to use a VPN, perhaps another strategy would be to plan to do something else week 1, and apply while you are here for a week 2 Disney trip. You can book refundable hotel rooms and buy third party tickets with some kind of cancellation policy, along with a backup plan for week 2 if Disney doesn’t work out for you. Heck, you don’t even need to come to Florida week 1, and if Disney doesn’t work for you then whatever transportation that you needed to get there (book refundable here as well) is separate from your cross-Atlantic flights, and won’t cause problems if you choose to cancel just that leg. Is it more work? Certainly. But it should satisfy your constraints.

I feel like I've been biting my tongue on this one. We frequently go for 9-10 days, and at one point it came up that we might not need DAS simply because we had so much more time to fit things in. The CM who we were talking to brought up that a typical family might only have 4-5 days MAX, which is why they stopped letting pre-selections happen for more than 7 days (was it 6 or 7?). International stays at Disney involve discounts and promos we don't get, the per day cost of my going is significantly higher than many international travelers.

So they are choosing to "only" get 14-21 heavily discounted park days. Which gives 14+ opportunities to use Genie+ to get a ride reservation if they can't qualify for DAS. Between ticket, hotel and dining discounts, many times that cost difference might cover G+ vs what US citizens are paying for the same trip.

Not saying anyone who NEEDS a DAS should be being denied the DAS. It is important to keep perspective on what people are comparing when it's said "but I'm international, I should be treated better because I'm there longer..."

 

[pecanp13]

I just created this account for the purpose of asking a question on here because Facebook groups have become extremely toxic.

Has there been adults with medical conditions approved for the new DAS? I understand it’s a case by case basis depending on your needs and why you cannot wait in a traditional line. It’s the “developmental disabilities” wording on Disney’s website that has been throwing me off. Is that all they have been approving for the new DAS? Does anyone know?

 

[mistysue]

I just created this account for the purpose of asking a question on here because Facebook groups have become extremely toxic.

Has there been adults with medical conditions approved for the new DAS? I understand it’s a case by case basis depending on your needs and why you cannot wait in a traditional line. It’s the “developmental disabilities” wording on Disney’s website that has been throwing me off. Is that all they have been approving for the new DAS? Does anyone know?

Yes, people of all types have been approved or denied, it's based on need.

 

[SueM in MN]

Totally agreeing with you about the two random sample dates not being nearly enough data to conclude much of anything, but I feel like some of your latter points not really matter. If it's at the same hour of the day, I think issues like tour guides or -5 mins/+15 mins or saving up DAS use until later are going to average out.
I wish he had the foresight to have done this weekly maybe 5-6PM every Monday for a year or whatever. That might actually have the sort of numbers to give a general idea if a trend occurred. Not even because I want to pass judgment, I just find data like this interesting. I can spend hours on thrilldata for no real reason just to know things.

That idea of 300 G+ cap is interesting, gives a different perspective on seeing 900 people enter that line. I have anecdotal evidence that is even worse, but nothing concrete or consistent enough to pinpoint much of anything besides unfortunate personal timing.

I agree that more observations would be helpful.
One of his assumptions seems to be that anything over the 300 G+ 'cap' is DAS.
So, those points do matter.
He does say the 300 cap number should be taken with a grain of salt. A couple things we don't know are whether ALL attractions have the same 'cap'.
It would make sense that attractions that can handle more guests per hour might have a larger cap. Disney also has data on ridership at different hours of the day for each attraction - the free portion of Genie gives estimates of 'best times' to ride, based on projected demand. It's possible they may allow a higher cap at times when the attraction is not projected to be as busy. We don't know.

 

[mistysue]

I agree that more observations would be helpful.
One of his assumptions seems to be that anything over the 300 G+ 'cap' is DAS.
So, those points do matter.
He does say the 300 cap number should be taken with a grain of salt. A couple things we don't know are whether ALL attractions have the same 'cap'.
It would make sense that attractions that can handle more guests per hour might have a larger cap. Disney also has data on ridership at different hours of the day for each attraction - the free portion of Genie gives estimates of 'best times' to ride, based on projected demand. It's possible they may allow a higher cap at times when the attraction is not projected to be as busy. We don't know.

I'm thinking something like the +- 5-15 minutes thing is irrelevant because it's happening every hour, so over time is not worth much consideration unless you are at the very start/end of the day.

The "anything over 300 = DAS" absolutely doesn't work as an assumption. (regardless of what number 300 really is) I don't know that guided tours are a significant enough ratio of any park attendance to make a real dent in big picture. Anything over 1-2%, while interesting, isn't really changing the picture. The issue may be more that it seems he's trying to say "there are absolutely exactly X people using DAS" which is not something anyone could know with that much certainty - even Disney as they are going to be occasional scanning failures, kids under 3 on some rides, people waived through or who turn back for whatever reason, etc. I just don't know that some of these numbers change the "big picture" - which would be neat to see a trend of.

 

[SueM in MN]

I just created this account for the purpose of asking a question on here because Facebook groups have become extremely toxic.

Has there been adults with medical conditions approved for the new DAS? I understand it’s a case by case basis depending on your needs and why you cannot wait in a traditional line. It’s the “developmental disabilities” wording on Disney’s website that has been throwing me off. Is that all they have been approving for the new DAS? Does anyone know?

This thread you posted on is sort of general discussion anything about DAS.

You might want to check out this other thread which is where people are posting experiences

And, yes. It's not just been developmental disabilities

 

[disneydreamer1980]

Off topic maybe but one thing I’ve noticed after reading people’s comments about and experiences with the new DAS system all over social media, is it seems that the vast majority of people wanting a DAS seem to have APs. I don’t know why that is, or if it’s just that they’re more familiar with the parks so they’re more likely to know about DAS, but it’s true. I did an informal accounting of the comments I read in just one day on social media and about 70% of the people had APs (I’m sick in bed and bored lol). There are a whole lot of mad or worried AP holders right now who apparently can’t wait in lines at all but spend all their free time in Disney World, line capital of the world and I can’t help but wonder if having an AP negatively effects chances of getting the DAS in the minds of the CM on the video calls. Idk, just an observation.

 

[Obi-J Kenobi]

Off topic maybe but one thing I’ve noticed after reading people’s comments about and experiences with the new DAS system all over social media, is it seems that the vast majority of people wanting a DAS seem to have APs. I don’t know why that is, or if it’s just that they’re more familiar with the parks so they’re more likely to know about DAS, but it’s true. I did an informal accounting of the comments I read in just one day on social media and about 70% of the people had APs (I’m sick in bed and bored lol). There are a whole lot of mad or worried AP holders right now who apparently can’t wait in lines at all but spend all their free time in Disney World, line capital of the world and I can’t help but wonder if having an AP negatively effects chances of getting the DAS in the minds of the CM on the video calls. Idk, just an observation.

Get well soon!

 

[disneydreamer1980]

Get well soon!

Thanks!

 

[SueM in MN]

I'm thinking something like the +- 5-15 minutes thing is irrelevant because it's happening every hour, so over time is not worth much consideration unless you are at the very start/end of the day.

The "anything over 300 = DAS" absolutely doesn't work as an assumption. (regardless of what number 300 really is) I don't know that guided tours are a significant enough ratio of any park attendance to make a real dent in big picture. Anything over 1-2%, while interesting, isn't really changing the picture. The issue may be more that it seems he's trying to say "there are absolutely exactly X people using DAS" which is not something anyone could know with that much certainty - even Disney as they are going to be occasional scanning failures, kids under 3 on some rides, people waived through or who turn back for whatever reason, etc. I just don't know that some of these numbers change the "big picture" - which would be neat to see a trend of.

If the observations were taken/collected every hour of the day, it would even out. But a one day, but from one hour observation on one day, there is not enough information to know whether that observation is an outlier compared to other hours of the day/days of the week.
Just using anecdotal information posted by DAS users shows many get a DAS Return Time when they are in the park, leave to rest and then come back later in the day to use it.
Regarding VIP tours, on our trip last Fall, we were inside of the Rémy attraction to the point just before picking up the 3D glasses when the line came to a complete stop for almost 30 minutes. We thought maybe the ride was down, but saw a pretty steady stream of people moving thru the single rider line to the left of us - I don't know if it's ever been actually used for single rider, but know it is used for VIP groups. I didn't start counting at first, but counted at least 40 going thru.
I wouldn't extrapolate that to mean 40 people on VIP tour go thru every hour or even every day, but they did in that half hour that day

 

[mistysue]

Off topic maybe but one thing I’ve noticed after reading people’s comments about and experiences with the new DAS system all over social media, is it seems that the vast majority of people wanting a DAS seem to have APs. I don’t know why that is, or if it’s just that they’re more familiar with the parks so they’re more likely to know about DAS, but it’s true. I did an informal accounting of the comments I read in just one day on social media and about 70% of the people had APs (I’m sick in bed and bored lol). There are a whole lot of mad or worried AP holders right now who apparently can’t wait in lines at all but spend all their free time in Disney World, line capital of the world and I can’t help but wonder if having an AP negatively effects chances of getting the DAS in the minds of the CM on the video calls. Idk, just an observation.

Certainly meshes with my "if you have that many days, you might by able to just use Genie+" conversation. It is an interesting thought that it would be relatively common for locals unable to go through lines to then choose to spend their free time in an environment that centers on them. When we have a local place that challenges a need, it's usually a place we don't decide to make our stomping grounds.

Also hoping you feel better.

 

[mistysue]

If the observations were taken/collected every hour of the day, it would even out. But a one day, but from one hour observation on one day, there is not enough information to know whether that observation is an outlier compared to other hours of the day/days of the week.
Just using anecdotal information posted by DAS users shows many get a DAS Return Time when they are in the park, leave to rest and then come back later in the day to use it.
Regarding VIP tours, on our trip last Fall, we were inside of the Rémy attraction to the point just before picking up the 3D glasses when the line came to a complete stop for almost 30 minutes. We thought maybe the ride was down, but saw a pretty steady stream of people moving thru the single rider line to the left of us - I don't know if it's ever been actually used for single rider, but know it is used for VIP groups. I didn't start counting at first, but counted at least 40 going thru.
I wouldn't extrapolate that to mean 40 people on VIP tour go thru every hour or even every day, but they did in that half hour that day

True.
What bad timing with that tour group thing for you!

ETA- this conversation is making me want to design an experiment that would get a clearer picture. Three hours of the day, weekly at the same day/ride.

 

[SueM in MN]

Off topic maybe but one thing I’ve noticed after reading people’s comments about and experiences with the new DAS system all over social media, is it seems that the vast majority of people wanting a DAS seem to have APs. I don’t know why that is, or if it’s just that they’re more familiar with the parks so they’re more likely to know about DAS, but it’s true. I did an informal accounting of the comments I read in just one day on social media and about 70% of the people had APs (I’m sick in bed and bored lol). There are a whole lot of mad or worried AP holders right now who apparently can’t wait in lines at all but spend all their free time in Disney World, line capital of the world and I can’t help but wonder if having an AP negatively effects chances of getting the DAS in the minds of the CM on the video calls. Idk, just an observation.

My husband, youngest daughter and myself all are out of state AP holders. I have never felt it made a difference in the past with her being approved for DAS.

One of the big reasons we got APs was that with regular tickets, we had a limited number of days and sort of felt pressured to use our days to the maximum. With APs, we feel more free to do whatever she needs to do; if it's a good day, we might get 4-5 hours. If it's a bad day, we might not get much past entering. If she needs a day off, we can do it without worrying about having to use our pass days within a certain time window.
Often, my husband will just go to a park alone or I will or one of us will go back to our room with DD and the other stayed. With AP, we don't have to worry about one of us having more or less days left than anyone else in our group.

 

[Karin1984]

Off topic maybe but one thing I’ve noticed after reading people’s comments about and experiences with the new DAS system all over social media, is it seems that the vast majority of people wanting a DAS seem to have APs. I don’t know why that is, or if it’s just that they’re more familiar with the parks so they’re more likely to know about DAS, but it’s true. I did an informal accounting of the comments I read in just one day on social media and about 70% of the people had APs (I’m sick in bed and bored lol). There are a whole lot of mad or worried AP holders right now who apparently can’t wait in lines at all but spend all their free time in Disney World, line capital of the world and I can’t help but wonder if having an AP negatively effects chances of getting the DAS in the minds of the CM on the video calls. Idk, just an observation.

Noticed the same. Last one I saw was a person not extending her and her husband's APs because of this, also not getting DVC they were saving up for. She explained one reason they go so often to Disney and have APs is because they know they will be accommodated and can have a nice day. I think that goes for many APs, especially if they live near.

I do not necessarily think that those with APs seem to want DAS (or the other way around). I do think there are more AP holders on social media making Disney related content. That makes it look imbalanced.

Also saw someone with an AP give an update that she got approved and how she got approved. Probably to help, however several people in her comment section told her that this is how the scammers start scamming.

 

[PrincessV]

Off topic maybe but one thing I’ve noticed after reading people’s comments about and experiences with the new DAS system all over social media, is it seems that the vast majority of people wanting a DAS seem to have APs. I don’t know why that is, or if it’s just that they’re more familiar with the parks so they’re more likely to know about DAS, but it’s true. I did an informal accounting of the comments I read in just one day on social media and about 70% of the people had APs (I’m sick in bed and bored lol). There are a whole lot of mad or worried AP holders right now who apparently can’t wait in lines at all but spend all their free time in Disney World, line capital of the world and I can’t help but wonder if having an AP negatively effects chances of getting the DAS in the minds of the CM on the video calls. Idk, just an observation.

The bolded is certainly a gross generalization to make based on an “informal accounting” don’t you think? I’m only one APer out of many, but I’ll counter that to say that I spend most of my free time doing a variety of things other than visiting WDW. But WDW is near enough to cost me nothing more than 1/4 tank of gas to get there and back, and offers me some pretty great FL resident discounts to spend time on its property, so yep - I enjoy time there when I can! Again, I can only speak for myself, but the purchase of an AP is a financial decision: with the discounts offered to FL residents, it pays for itself quickly - my last calculation was something around 6-7 visits in a year. That’s less than many Guests visit using non-AP ticket media.

The average local APer doesn’t frequent the Disboards, or social media pages about Disney, or even WDW’s own website. You’re only seeing posts right now from those of us who do, AND who use DAS, AND at a time when DAS is changing and people have questions; I don’t think you can accurately make many assumptions off of this one snapshot in time.

 

[disneyseniors]

.

None of your posts are coming through!

 

[TwoMisfits]

I just created this account for the purpose of asking a question on here because Facebook groups have become extremely toxic.

Has there been adults with medical conditions approved for the new DAS? I understand it’s a case by case basis depending on your needs and why you cannot wait in a traditional line. It’s the “developmental disabilities” wording on Disney’s website that has been throwing me off. Is that all they have been approving for the new DAS? Does anyone know?

While adults have been approved, it has been a much tighter and narrower approval than before, so reading through this whole thread, you should get a feel for if your need would be more or less likely to be approved.