Crystal Ball: Where do you see resale prices going for rest of 2025?

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Please bring this back to DVC and off the topic of traveling abroad. Some posts are coming close to being not appropriate.

Oh shoot, my bad I read this after my post, sorry Sandi, I won’t respond further unless it’s DVC related.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Nothing to see here! Back on topic!

 

[Cfabar1]

I personally am a little intrigued by what is happening with VGF pricing...

It seems like a lot of contracts are staying at higher prices and not falling, probably because DVC is ROFRing it... But in turn it seems like contracts are just sitting on the market for a lot longer.

 

[Genie+]

I personally am a little intrigued by what is happening with VGF pricing...

It seems like a lot of contracts are staying at higher prices and not falling, probably because DVC is ROFRing it... But in turn it seems like contracts are just sitting on the market for a lot longer.

Watching my resale contract lose about 15% value from what we paid 3 years ago, while our direct VGF can still be resold for around the price we paid 2 years ago

Not planning to sell anytime soon. Just cracks me up every time I read people trying to convince others that resale is hands down the best value. It’s not that straightforward.

 

[Hubalorian]

Watching my resale contract lose about 15% value from what we paid 3 years ago, while our direct VGF can still be resold for around the price we paid 2 years ago

Not planning to sell anytime soon. Just cracks me up every time I read people trying to convince others that resale is hands down the best value. It’s not that straightforward.

That word value gets tricky. The value meal at McDonalds gets you quite a bit of food, but if you paid more you would get more “value” in terms of nutrition else where. It relies on what you find valuable?

 

[Tatebeck]

Watching my resale contract lose about 15% value from what we paid 3 years ago, while our direct VGF can still be resold for around the price we paid 2 years ago

Not planning to sell anytime soon. Just cracks me up every time I read people trying to convince others that resale is hands down the best value. It’s not that straightforward.

Yeah in general resale is usually a better deal, but there are definitely cases like yours where direct can be pretty good too. Hard to compare the VGF direct firesale to the terrible direct incentives they have right now across the board. Timing for direct and resale both can be very important. Direct RIV now is a much worse deal than when we bought not long ago for example.

But if we resold RIV now we would lose value, a big chunk of it probably due to the restrictions. But true to the general rule our resale contracts would be better off and have actually in general gone up in value over the last couple years since we bought. I think for 2 or 3 of the 4 we could probably sell for more than we paid and the other 1 to 2 would be break even, and we got to use a couple years of points from those too.

 

[Sandisw]

Yeah in general resale is usually a better deal, but there are definitely cases like yours where direct can be pretty good too. Hard to compare the VGF direct firesale to the terrible direct incentives they have right now across the board. Timing for direct and resale both can be very important. Direct RIV now is a much worse deal than when we bought not long ago.

But if we resold RIV now we would lose value, a big chunk of it probably due to the restrictions. But true to the general rule our resale contracts have in general gone up in value over the last couple years since we bought. I think for 2 or 3 of the 4 we could probably sell for more than we paid and the other 1 to 2 would be break even, and we got to use a couple years of points from those too.

People who bought resale in 2022 when RoFR was rampant and prices went way up, would lose quite a bit if they sold now.

So, it really does all depend on when one buys. Which is why I think expecting that things will also be more when you go to sell is dsngerous.

As I mentioned before, I had an SSR taken in 2022 for $125 so people were paying more than that.

I sold BLT for $189 in 2021…it will be interesting to see where things go.

 

[juliebee]

Doesn't it come down to will the economic conditions for Disney cause them to stop ROFRing contracts? If that happens, then resale prices would likely drop. Is that what happened in 2020 for resale contracts?

 

[atthebeachclub]

Doesn't it come down to will the economic conditions for Disney cause them to stop ROFRing contracts? If that happens, then resale prices would likely drop. Is that what happened in 2020 for resale contracts?

They’ve barely been ROFRing already for the past few years; only at a few select resorts.

 

[heynowirv]

I feel ya! In fact it literally affected me directly today. After months and months of low balling I finally got very close to a fully loaded contract at a very attractive price. The agent was gently nudging me to come up slightly to close the deal and I looked at my portfolio...looked at the contract...looked at my portfolio...and just got scared off thinking maybe it's just a little more prudent to hold on to cash right now. And this could all be a nothing burger and a temporary blip but...welll...you know how human psyche works.

But IF prices drift down a considerable amount then I'm thinking Poly will be had cheap as that's been the most inflated and probably has the farthest to fall. 125 pp? I'd be all over it!

I second that sentiment ,I too am looking toward Poly we toured the Tower last week and my wife fell in love with it.

 

[heynowirv]

Doesn't it come down to will the economic conditions for Disney cause them to stop ROFRing contracts? If that happens, then resale prices would likely drop. Is that what happened in 2020 for resale contracts?

2020 we were in the midst of a pandemic, totally different different circumstances in my mind.