Confirmed: Prices for Tickets and Passes going up on 2/11/2018

[midnight star]

I don't think I realized a 1 day PH could be $185. That's INSANE. I get they want to encourage multi-day visits, but most people are planning visits based on time constraints and not wants. So that said, it's kind of interesting because I imagine more people coming for one day will just pick one park, which seems the opposite of what Disney wants.

Yep! I generally only go to the parks for one day since I don’t have a pass but live 40 minutes away. My friend that I went with once, it was her first time ever to DL, and when she realized it would cost $160+ to park hop, she decided she would rather spend the whole day on one park (we chose DLR) and spend $120 instead. We had a great time though still! Probably one of the best trips to the park! It’s just hard when you can’t do multiday trips.

 

[baozi]

The whole thing is based on the assumption that there is a cap every day for DL, which is underlying all your numbers. But well, Disney hits capacity several times a year, but compared to the total number of days a year, it is a rare occurrence. Since DL rarely stops selling ticket due to a cap, (and when customers buy APs, they do not expect to go to the park every eligible day either) the notion of "loss by AP" is quite artificial -- the AP holders may not come and pay the ticket price without the AP, at least not that frequently. Also dividing the total number of visitors by 365 and getting the daily cap is not quite convincing, the distribution might be very uneven.
However, we should admit that AP holders add to the crowd, and the crowd in turn influences the willingness of other people to come to the park.

Ask and you shall receive!!!

Ok, so I did a “little” number crunching...taking to account the following information provided by statista.com.
So...in 2016 DL reported an attendance of 17.94 million visitors.
Taking 17.94 million and dividing it by 365...that averages out to around 49,150 people a day at DL only. I'm going to round up to 50,000 although DL probably holds more than 50,000 (I mean Dodger Stadium holds 56,000), but this is just for information. But before we break down know much per day is made by Corp Disney, we need to break down some other info first.

First, the Non-AP costs for visiting ONLY DL:

Daily (baseline): $117
Two day: $210
Three day: $280
Four day: $305
Five day: $320

Now, we look at the prices of the APs from the APs POV, here's the broken down info per each AP (note the value per day is if the AP holder goes every day and ONLY to DL):

So. Cal $369
Total days: 162
Value per day $2.28

Deluxe $729
Total days: 315
Value per day: $2.31

Sig Pass: $999
Total days: 327
Value per day: $3.06

Sig+ Pass
Total days: 365
Value per day: $3.15

Now from the Business POV. Well it is hard to determine what day is a value day and what day is a peak day, I am going to set the baseline price of $117/day. So what does Corp Disney value the price of the APs (again ONLY visiting DL):
So. Cal (162 days): $18,954
Deluxe (315 days): $36,855
Sig (327 days): $44,799 (Parking Included)
Sig+(365 days): $50,005 (Parking Included)

What is Corp Disney losing from each AP sale based on the daily price they set at $117 and the number of days allowed to visit:
So. Cal: -$18,585
Deluxe: -$36,126
Sig: -$43,800 (Parking Included)
Sig+: -$48,856 (Parking Included)

There is no real accounting cost or lost here because that the differences between the lost if a single day price ticket going the same amount of days as the non-blackout days. And its not really recorded anywhere (that I'm aware of).

So how much does Corp Disney lose every time an AP visits (again just DL)?

So. Cal: -$114.72
Deluxe: -$114.69
Sig: -$113.94 or -$133.94 (Parking Included)
Sig+: -$113.85 or -$133.85 (Parking Included)

Now, going back to the daily attendance number of 50,000 attending DL.

Let's take a day where there are no black out dates at all, and all the APs can go, but the attendance is capped at 50,000.

So Cal: 7500 (15%) -$1,235,416.67
DP: 5000 (10%) -$573,428.57
SP: 5000 (10%) -$669,724.77 (remember this price include parking)
SP+ 2500 (5%) -$334,630.14 (parking included)
Daily: 15000 (30%) $1,579,500.00
2 Day 6000 (12%) $630,000
3 Day 4500 (9%) $420,030
4 Day 3000 (6%) $228,750
5 Day 1500 (3%) $96,000
$316,579.85

If we remove the parking from SP and SP+, then the profit would be $466,609.76.

Okay, now lets do a blackout date for both So Cal and DP, but still keep the number of attendance at 50,000

SP 5000 (10%) -$669,724,77
SP+ 2500 (5%) -$334,630.14
Daily 21250 (43%) $2,486,250
2 Day 8500 (17%) $892,500
3 Day 6375 (13%) $595,042.50
4 Day 4250 (9%) $324,062.50)
5 Day 2125 (4%) $136,000
$3,429,500.09
And again, if we remove parking for SP and SP+, then it would be $3,579,530

And this is just visiting ONE PARK. Yes, I have the numbers for doing a park hopper, but this information is good enough and I don't want to overload some people with crazy numbers.

Now many will probably criticize these figures and that's fine and all feedback is welcomed. If you find an error, please tell me so I can readjust my spreadsheets. Another point I should make... these are just fictional numbers made up based on the data provided through several websites. In fact, I really exaggerated with the AP attendance numbers per day because I do not believe that 7,500 So Cal pass holders will visit on a single day (though again I could be wrong). Next, this is based on that APs holders paying their passes all up front and not taking into consideration payment plans (and yes I have a spreadsheet for that too). Finally, these numbers are NOT to represent the actual figures. DIS will not release those figures. I'm just a numbers detailed person and when I get some free time at work, I do spreadsheets like this on a regular bases for fun. Yes, for fun! If you want me to run more realistic numbers, I'd be more than happy to.

 

[DizneyMommy]

I agree. I think without the renewal discount, they'll see a lot more people let their passes lapse for a period of time, then get new passes when they come for their next trip, especially for people who aren't local.

I just went to renew my daughter’s pass and I guess I had my head in a cave, I couldn’t figure out why it wasn’t giving me the renewal discount. Ouch :-( Deluxe price increase x3 is a huge hit in this house.

I came here looking to see exactly this, is there really any added benefit in renewing it on time anymore, or should we wait until our next visit? The kids never had parking and we have Deluxe so no grandfathering issue here. Since we just moved to AZ, we aren’t going several times a month anymore, but instead 6-8 times a year for a few days each. We probably won’t be back with her until June, so I guess I will wait until then.

It seems counterintuitive to remove that discount. I would have paid in April and then not even used the pass until June, so they would have had my money for 2-3 months of non-use. Now I’m going to wait until we actually go and we’ll plan more carefully around expiration dates.

 

[az4boys]

I just went to renew my daughter’s pass and I guess I had my head in a cave, I couldn’t figure out why it wasn’t giving me the renewal discount. Ouch :-( Deluxe price increase x3 is a huge hit in this house.

I came here looking to see exactly this, is there really any added benefit in renewing it on time anymore, or should we wait until our next visit? The kids never had parking and we have Deluxe so no grandfathering issue here. Since we just moved to AZ, we aren’t going several times a month anymore, but instead 6-8 times a year for a few days each. We probably won’t be back with her until June, so I guess I will wait until then.

It seems counterintuitive to remove that discount. I would have paid in April and then not even used the pass until June, so they would have had my money for 2-3 months of non-use. Now I’m going to wait until we actually go and we’ll plan more carefully around expiration dates.

This is my impression as well. Maybe others will have additional information. At this point I don't see a reason to renew a pass at the expiration date unless there are some grandfathered benefits you want to maintain.

 

[dina444444]

I just went to renew my daughter’s pass and I guess I had my head in a cave, I couldn’t figure out why it wasn’t giving me the renewal discount. Ouch :-( Deluxe price increase x3 is a huge hit in this house.

I came here looking to see exactly this, is there really any added benefit in renewing it on time anymore, or should we wait until our next visit? The kids never had parking and we have Deluxe so no grandfathering issue here. Since we just moved to AZ, we aren’t going several times a month anymore, but instead 6-8 times a year for a few days each. We probably won’t be back with her until June, so I guess I will wait until then.

It seems counterintuitive to remove that discount. I would have paid in April and then not even used the pass until June, so they would have had my money for 2-3 months of non-use. Now I’m going to wait until we actually go and we’ll plan more carefully around expiration dates.

If you have parking on one of your deluxe passes then you won’t be able to add parking again if you let your renewal lapse.

 

[DizneyMommy]

If you have parking on one of your deluxe passes then you won’t be able to add parking again if you let your renewal lapse.

We don’t. We usually have a local family member with a signature pass with us. We were signature too but we downgraded to deluxe when we moved.