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[crvetter]

I personally think they are overbuilding and there will be plenty of deals on regular and dvc resort rooms. I personally would not lock in with dvc. They are raising membership fees alone at higher than the inflation rate.

I would agree in some sense they are overbuilding but the recent DVC add-ons have replaced cash rooms (PVB, CCV, Riviera, BLT, and etc.). I think part of Disney's reasoning is it's cheaper than getting bonds/loans on reconstructing resorts that are reaching the end of their life. Essentially, we who buy into DVC, direct, are giving Disney the cash they need with a promise of rooms for X years less Maintenance Fees. So while yes they are increasing capacity I wouldn't say it is at a scary rate.

Another thing is with the restrictions on resale, if this really results in lower resale prices Disney can than get an opportunity to double dip even triple dip on the same set of points. This would have major benefits to their bottom line.

 

[Turn the Page]

Lol, are you in the same predicament I am?

Sure am!!!

 

[LoriKutchey]

So if I am on the fence about selling my contract, would this be the best time to sell?

 

[skier_pete]

Yes, the next restriction on Riviera resale gives us more to think about but I'm not so sure it will be a make or break thing for us. We need to wait to hear more details about point charts, room configurations, etc. before we make a final decision.

I'm glad to hear you say that. There looks like there's one good reason to NOT by at Riviera - but that's only if you ever thought you would want to sell it. If you are sure of yourself, the point charts and room configurations COULD point to this being the best DVC resort to buy into in 6 years. (Not anchored down by Bungalows/Cabins, or overly high point charts and limited studios.)

The resale value is a HUGE question mark - but it's also possible that Disney may choose to buoy it with ROFR. That's why I've suggested $60-70 as a bottom point - it'll never get down to a real low number because if Disney could buy it for $10 they'd do it every time.

Edit: I could be completely reading this wrong - maybe people will appreciate the resort enough to keep resale up, but I can't see it even staying higher than SSR. At least at SSR you can get into many other resorts. Riviera you will be "stuck" with the one. Just don't see people paying premiums for that.

 

[skier_pete]

So if I am on the fence about selling my contract, would this be the best time to sell?

Potentially right now - there may be a lot of resale demand between now and January 19th. Otherwise, the demand could soften a little right after that date, but I bet it picks up again in a few months. (After tax refunds.) Unless economy goes south - then resale will take a big hit.

 

[chicagodisneyguy]

I personally don't think this will affect resale prices much at the original 14. A change like this would have had a much bigger impact if it was implemented much earlier in the DVC timeline. "Only" having 14 Disney resorts to choose from really isn't that big of a problem. Sure, if Riviera or Reflections is a home run it will stink for resale buyers not to be able to stay there. But not getting to stay there wouldn't be as much of a deterrent as say if VGF and BCV were the two excluded.

I do think the spread between resale/direct prices at Riviera and Reflections will be wider. Unless those resorts are "buy where you want to stay" type places...it will be a tougher sell via resale. I think being able to stay at only one resort will give more people pause.

I think this move will have more of an impact many years from now when the 2042 resorts start to be retired and refurbished and then resold. I think DVC will take the lessons of the current model and make it much more unfriendly to resale with changes like this. But luckily for us in the original 14 that future is many years off.

 

[Marionnette]

So if I am on the fence about selling my contract, would this be the best time to sell?

Right now, buyers are more inclined to get their bid in and haggle less over price in an effort to get their sale to ROFR before 01/19/19. Sellers are n the driver's seat for the next couple of weeks.

After 01/19/19, I predict a lull in resale as buyers who were on the fence before this announcement will have rushed to purchase. Newer buyers will be waiting to see how the market settles down. Owners who missed the deadline to sell before the new restrictions will be waiting to see what kind of price their contracts might be able to command. It may take 3 or 4 months before everyone's jitters relax. It might be a good time for anyone who considered an add on to their existing ownership. But then again, direct prices will be skyrocketing on 01/16/19. That could help to buoy up resale prices.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

So if I am on the fence about selling my contract, would this be the best time to sell?

Whatcha got??? lol

 

[citivas]

Um, no. The very first sentence in the post you quoted said we weren't excited about that aspect and I said in another post that it would give us more to think about and we need more details before we make a decision.

ETA: Additionally, I also said if the details of purchasing Riviera don't make sense for us we would buy SSR resale.

Right, I got that you said you weren't excited about that. But you also said it may not be a "deal killer" which is what prompted my question, since if it isn't a deal killer it implies that you're okay with no resale value. That's why I asked -- I was curious to hear the perspective of someone who was okay if they had no resale option on points -- was it being absolutely convinced they would need to sell, or valuing them so highly that that the upfront cost is worth it even if the up-front expense is totally disposable, etc.? I personally can't imagine an incentive package that would make me be okay with no resale path -- it would have to be something like 80% off or more, which would never happen. But everyone comes from a different place, which is why I like to hear other perspectives.

 

[Turn the Page]

Right, I got that you said you weren't excited about that. But you also said it may not be a "deal killer" which is what prompted my question, since if it isn't a deal killer it implies that you're okay with no resale value. That's why I asked -- I was curious to hear the perspective of someone who was okay if they had no resale option on points -- was it being absolutely convinced they would need to sell, or valuing them so highly that that the upfront cost is worth it even if the up-front expense is totally disposable, etc.? I personally can't imagine an incentive package that would make me be okay with no resale path -- it would have to be something like 80% off or more, which would never happen. But everyone comes from a different place, which is why I like to hear other perspectives.

There isn't "no resale option" on points though. You'll still be able to sell your contract, just probably not for as much as contracts go for now.

 

[citivas]

There isn't "no resale option" on points though. You'll still be able to sell your contract, just probably not for as much as contracts go for now.

True, I overstated. You'll be able to resale for a small fraction of the face value. Someone will want them at a fire sale.

 

[4luv2cdisney]

I have been planning on buying resale at some point this year. I have a trip coming up in Feb where I'm renting points at BLT. I'm leaning towards purchasing BLT but wanted to stay there first before making the final decision. So, do I pull the trigger now and buy BLT resale (and hope it passes ROFR) or do I continue to wait until after my trip to make my decision? Or, do I completely forget the idea of purchasing resale? I really don't care about Riviera now but in 23 years when I have less inventory to choose from, I might care. 23 years from now is around the time I might have grandkids to take. Sigh, I just don't know what to do!

Similar position. We were in the midst of planning a "resort hop trip" - just DH and I - to be sure we want BLT and could say we've tried a few more options.

Currently, I'm sitting on waitlist for BLT (never gonna come thru) SSR (might come thru but it's not going up much so I'm not even sure I'd buy today) and BWV (currently own and love but would prefer to buy a 2nd resort with a longer end date direct).

Eyeing a Poly resale ( even though Poly was never really on our wish list and I'm worried about trusting a seller and broker to get it submitted on time let alone that it actually passes ROFR). And, let's face it, it'll probably be gone before my DH even gets home from work anyway.

But I'm not considering Riviera at all. I'll probably end up with SSR or OKW direct after the price hike (hoping to use it at BLT or other) and then add on via resale at BWV (because we're a little short on the points we want to own there.)

 

[skier_pete]

I have been planning on buying resale at some point this year. I have a trip coming up in Feb where I'm renting points at BLT. I'm leaning towards purchasing BLT but wanted to stay there first before making the final decision. So, do I pull the trigger now and buy BLT resale (and hope it passes ROFR) or do I continue to wait until after my trip to make my decision? Or, do I completely forget the idea of purchasing resale? I really don't care about Riviera now but in 23 years when I have less inventory to choose from, I might care. 23 years from now is around the time I might have grandkids to take. Sigh, I just don't know what to do!

If you were thinking of buying at BLT I would just wait. The primary concern should ALWAYS be you are happy with your home resort. Even with access to other resorts you don't always have the opportunity to get into them (unless its SSR). If you don't like BLT you'll regret the buy.

You will still have plenty of inventory past 2042. (Poly, VGF, AKV, CCV, SSR + your home.) I wouldn't rush into a buy right now. Demand may swing high and the prices will too the next few days.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

I have been planning on buying resale at some point this year. I have a trip coming up in Feb where I'm renting points at BLT. I'm leaning towards purchasing BLT but wanted to stay there first before making the final decision. So, do I pull the trigger now and buy BLT resale (and hope it passes ROFR) or do I continue to wait until after my trip to make my decision? Or, do I completely forget the idea of purchasing resale? I really don't care about Riviera now but in 23 years when I have less inventory to choose from, I might care. 23 years from now is around the time I might have grandkids to take. Sigh, I just don't know what to do!

After the 2042 resorts expire you'll still have : SSR, AKV, OKW extended, BLT, VGC, VGF, Aulani, PVB and CCV. That's not a bad lineup at all IMO. And nothing prevents you from adding on in the new resorts or who knows what's DVC will have as rules then. I'd personally not worry too much about 23 years from now with 9 resorts still as options. The Epcot options will be the ones falling off the table but PVB is just as much an Epcot resort as Riviera will be. And most are MK resorts so that's easily covered. There will never be another AKV type with animals built either.

 

[bwvBound]

Because many of us newer members had a 2 or 3 step plan for ownership and without the rest of our points our membership is kinda ....well... pointless. Lol.

It's like all the agony of those who were in the middle of a resale purchase with the intent of adding 25 for benefits and then minimum went to 75. They'd slightly shorted themselves and now what?

I need 2 more small contracts to complete my plan. If I dont, I may as well sell. So my options are to rush thru a resale contract that as far as I can see doesn't even exist and save $20-30 / pt or try to rush thru a direct sale before the price increase. We have no interest in buying Riviera, but would possibly stay there to try it and who knows what future resorts we may want to stay at.

Does it piss me off? Yes. But I'm still keeping my existing points and I need a few more to make things work. Especially since we have seen that they can apparently create more point s requirements for our planned stays.

Fwiw, I'm on waitlist for direct but hoping a resale pops up. But will it pass ROFR? If not, I've lost again.

FWIW, we also did the "2 or 3 step plan" with our original purchase (2004). It did take us 3 steps to reach/exceed our goal with the last purchase being in 2007. I fully understand your approach! Good luck!

 

[DougEMG]

the point charts and room configurations COULD point to this being the best DVC resort to buy into in 6 years. (Not anchored down by Bungalows/Cabins, or overly high point charts and limited studios.)

After this latest point reallocation, I'm at the point where I wouldn't trust the point chart to stay the same after the Riviera sold out. DVC seems much more inclined to manipulate things like that to their advantage now than in the past.

 

[ParkHoppers]

Potentially right now - there may be a lot of resale demand between now and January 19th. Otherwise, the demand could soften a little right after that date, but I bet it picks up again in a few months. (After tax refunds.) Unless economy goes south - then resale will take a big hit.

Actually someone on another thread said they talked to their guide today and he said all contracts must be closed by January 19th to be in before the change. That means anything started now couldn’t be closed by the 19th. Right?

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

Actually someone on another thread said they talked to their guide today and he said all contracts must be closed by January 19th to be in before the change. That means anything started now couldn’t be closed by the 19th. Right?

The guide may have been exaggerating. It just has to be submitted to ROFR by the 19th.

 

[mustinjourney]

I have been planning on buying resale at some point this year. I have a trip coming up in Feb where I'm renting points at BLT. I'm leaning towards purchasing BLT but wanted to stay there first before making the final decision. So, do I pull the trigger now and buy BLT resale (and hope it passes ROFR) or do I continue to wait until after my trip to make my decision? Or, do I completely forget the idea of purchasing resale? I really don't care about Riviera now but in 23 years when I have less inventory to choose from, I might care. 23 years from now is around the time I might have grandkids to take. Sigh, I just don't know what to do!

If you can find a nice contract I'd buy now for the future flexibility. direct prices are about to go up, so resale prices will likely follow.

 

[mustinjourney]

I personally think they are overbuilding and there will be plenty of deals on regular and dvc resort rooms. I personally would not lock in with dvc. They are raising membership fees alone at higher than the inflation rate.

and disney is raising hotel rates at faster than inflation rate.