Best Economical Resort

[CastAStone]

A few years ago I posted a thread on dues per room night. If someone wanted to recreate this with the total cost of ownership it wouldn’t be a terribly difficult excel exercise.

I posted a DVC dues summary on another thread and it was suggested I pull together a separate thread on the topic. This is that thread.

I've also posted dues charts - points charts, but with dues instead of points. The use of points kind of obfuscates actual costs, and if you think you will be somewhat consistent in your travel schedule, hopefully this will help you compare costs across resorts.

I am using the 2021 Points Charts, because the 2020 ones at this point really have very little utility, but 2020 Dues, because that's the most recent dues we have. As they are announced I plan to update this with 2021 dues.

Let me know thoughts on improvements or other information.

 

[CWTC]

I'm guessing it's this one, BLT is pretty low on most of those lists. One person ranked it below non-existent hypothetical DVC resorts, lol.

It’s a good thing DVC has so many options because relative worth is the intangible factor in all this math. BLT is one of our home resorts and the reasons we bought it are location (walk to MK and monorail), dues, contract length (vs BCV another home), price per point (vs VGF and VGC our other home resorts), and the food/shopping at the Contemporary. Our BLT points are used as SAP+ points for the most part (aulani and poly bungalows I’m looking at you) but we also enjoy staying there! I don’t want to bash anyone’s home resorts but there are several DVC resorts that I know people love that we either will never ever stay at OR we would stay once. I do wish BLT would get more love though!!

 

[intamin]

It’s a good thing DVC has so many options because relative worth is the intangible factor in all this math. BLT is one of our home resorts and the reasons we bought it are location (walk to MK and monorail), dues, contract length (vs BCV another home), price per point (vs VGF and VGC our other home resorts), and the food/shopping at the Contemporary. Our BLT points are used as SAP+ points for the most part (aulani and poly bungalows I’m looking at you) but we also enjoy staying there! I don’t want to bash anyone’s home resorts but there are several DVC resorts that I know people love that we either will never ever stay at OR we would stay once. I do wish BLT would get more love though!!

Feel free to bash away in the resort rankings thread..

 

[MartyParty]

https://www.disboards.com/threads/rate-the-dvc-resorts-from-first-to-worst.3948627/

I'm guessing it's this one, BLT is pretty low on most of those lists. One person ranked it below non-existent hypothetical DVC resorts, lol.

I own at BLT though, I like it there. And the fact that the annual dues are so reasonable make it even better.

Yep, that’s the thread.

 

[Cybertruck]

Nah. These are hard cold factored financial numbers. If Beach Club is your vibe, and you enjoy the close walk to Epcot, then would it matter if BLT is the better value...but no quick walk to Epcot?

BLT is ranking favorably (we have points there but wish we had more) as my DW's favorite park is MK. She enjoys the close walk there, likes the views of the lake and castle, likes the contemporary vibe, loves Villians Lair at Top of the World, etc. But we all know there's another thread going on right down where BLT consistently ranks towards the bottom.

There's a unique intangible that's different for everyone at each resort (price, dues, design, location, amenities, deed length, etc.). We all value them differently. Glad DVC's portfolio gives us so many choices.

May the spreadsheet odds be ever in all our favors!

Exactly Math/Science=Facts not Vibe/Heart. Both are important when making a large financial investment. Vibe/Heart can easily be applied as a factor in your Excel/Google/Numbers workbook (e.g., Walkable to EPCOT). I already factored in Poly Island Tower as an EPCOT resort per @Stargazer65 definition. https://www.disboards.com/threads/please-stop-calling-beach-club-boardwalk-epcot-resorts.3926469/.

Lastly family happiness is priceless.

 

[Stargazer65]

I already factored in Poly Island Tower as an EPCOT resort per @Stargazer65 definition. https://www.disboards.com/threads/please-stop-calling-beach-club-boardwalk-epcot-resorts.3926469/.

Of course it's an EPCOT resort!

Definitely need to re-read the original "PLEASE,,,,,Stop" thread first to appreciate the second one:
https://www.disboards.com/threads/please-stop-calling-riviera-an-epcot-resort.3926186/

 

[Stargazer65]

My favorite comments on that thread were:

PLEASE…Stop using commas as ellipsis.

and

but why,,,?

and

This is expert level trolling and I am here for it!

 

[Cybertruck]

@Stargazer65 took me a while to locate this thread. It is one of my favorites.

 

[jkips]

​

And pasted as an image for phone viewing
View attachment 872773

I'm late in saying this, but thank you so much for posting it. I've always known time-value-of-money is what was missing from the quarterly blog posts that the board sponsor puts out but never had a good way of expressing it. This does it succinctly and perfectly. Thank you!

 

[CastAStone]

I decided to look at Direct as well, because I was curious how CFW stacked up to the other resorts as a total cost of ownership.

If you take a 3.5% discount rate (assuming year 2 is 96.5% as valuable today as year 1, and year 3 is 96/5% as valuable as year 2, etc, to account for your ability to just save some money now to pay for a hotel room later), here's what I come up with. It includes all current offers at 150 points for current owners.

Don't buy Beach Club direct and then rent out the points!

I included a column for those of you who prefer the simple math of buy-in/years, labeled as Direct Total Cost 0%.

 

[Chili327]

Here's a version that includes some options for a discount rate, sorted by a 5% discount rate. Shakes things up quite a bit!!

			Cost Per Pt. Per Year from Price					Total Cost Per Pt. Per Year
Resort	Avg. Cost Per Pt.	Years Left	0% Discount rate​	3.5%​	5.0%​	6.5%​	2024 Dues	0% Discount rate​	3.5%​	5.0%​	6.5%​
Saratoga Springs	$102​	29​	$3.52​	$5.54​	$6.59​	$7.73​	$8.14​	$11.66​	$13.68​	$14.73​	$15.87​
Aulani *	$97​	37​	$2.62​	$4.64​	$5.71​	$6.88​	$9.76​	$12.38​	$14.40​	$15.47​	$16.64​
Bay Lake Tower	$132​	35​	$3.77​	$6.48​	$7.91​	$9.48​	$7.59​	$11.36​	$14.07​	$15.50​	$17.07​
Animal Kingdom	$105​	32​	$3.28​	$5.40​	$6.51​	$7.72​	$9.08​	$12.36​	$14.48​	$15.59​	$16.80​
Copper Creek	$136​	43​	$3.16​	$6.07​	$7.64​	$9.36​	$8.09​	$11.25​	$14.16​	$15.73​	$17.45​
Riviera ***	$126​	45​	$2.80​	$5.52​	$7.00​	$8.61​	$8.85​	$11.65​	$14.37​	$15.85​	$17.46​
Boulder Ridge	$93​	17​	$5.47​	$7.17​	$7.99​	$8.88​	$8.68​	$14.15​	$15.85​	$16.67​	$17.56​
Old Key West	$82​	17​	$4.87​	$6.32​	$7.05​	$7.83​	$9.87​	$14.69​	$16.19​	$16.92​	$17.70​
Grand Floridian	$164​	39​	$4.21​	$7.65​	$9.48​	$11.50​	$7.57​	$11.78​	$15.22​	$17.05​	$19.07​
Old Key West (Extended	$116​	32​	$3.63​	$5.97​	$7.19​	$8.53​	$9.87​	$13.50​	$15.84​	$17.06​	$18.40​
Hilton Head	$67​	17​	$3.94​	$5.16​	$5.76​	$6.40​	$11.31​	$15.25​	$16.47​	$17.07​	$17.71​
Polynesian	$158​	41​	$3.85​	$7.20​	$9.00​	$10.97​	$8.23​	$12.08​	$15.43​	$17.23​	$19.20​
DisneyIand Hotel***	$155​	49​	$3.16​	$6.57​	$8.43​	$10.46​	$9.53​	$12.69​	$16.10​	$17.96​	$19.99​
Boardwalk	$116​	17​	$6.82​	$8.94​	$9.97​	$11.07​	$8.67​	$15.49​	$17.61​	$18.64​	$19.74​
Vero Beach**	$58​	17​	$3.41​	$4.47​	$4.98​	$5.54​	$13.86​	$17.27​	$18.33​	$18.84​	$19.40​
Beach Club	$129​	17​	$7.59​	$9.94​	$11.08​	$12.31​	$8.63​	$16.22​	$18.57​	$19.71​	$20.94​
Grand Californian	$260​	35​	$7.43​	$12.77​	$15.59​	$18.68​	$8.55​	$15.98​	$21.32​	$24.14​	$27.23​

And pasted as an image for phone viewing
View attachment 872773

I decided to look at Direct as well, because I was curious how CFW stacked up to the other resorts as a total cost of ownership.

If you take a 3.5% discount rate (assuming year 2 is 96.5% as valuable today as year 1, and year 3 is 96/5% as valuable as year 2, etc, to account for your ability to just save some money now to pay for a hotel room later), here's what I come up with. It includes all current offers at 150 points for current owners.

Don't buy Beach Club direct and then rent out the points!

I included a column for those of you who prefer the simple math of buy-in/years, labeled as Direct Total Cost 0%.

View attachment 873390

Pretend I'm 9, why is a 5% discount more/pp than 0% discount?

 

[CastAStone]

I decided to look at Direct as well, because I was curious how CFW stacked up to the other resorts as a total cost of ownership.

If you take a 3.5% discount rate (assuming year 2 is 96.5% as valuable today as year 1, and year 3 is 96/5% as valuable as year 2, etc, to account for your ability to just save some money now to pay for a hotel room later), here's what I come up with. It includes all current offers at 150 points for current owners.

Don't buy Beach Club direct and then rent out the points!

I included a column for those of you who prefer the simple math of buy-in/years, labeled as Direct Total Cost 0%.

View attachment 873390

My takeaways, BTW, are that

• CFW is indeed nearly $1 more expensive per point than the remaining resorts in active sales (and that's true any way you slice it)
• the 2042s are unbelievably overpriced direct
• Riviera is a better deal direct than some resorts are resale!

 

[jkips]

Pretend I'm 9, why is a 5% discount more/pp than 0% discount?

Think about it as the cost of the money you are using to buy the points. When interest rates are 5% you are giving up $5/year for every $100 you spend on a point. When interest rates were zero like they were 3yrs ago you were giving up $0/year for that same $100 per point spent.

 

[CastAStone]

Pretend I'm 9, why is a 5% discount more/pp than 0% discount?

Lets take a contract that has 5 years left for easy math.

With a 0% discount rate, year 1 is worth 1 today's years, year 2 is worth 1 of today's years, so is year 3, and 4, and 5, so the 5 years combined are worth 5 of today's years.

With a 5% discount rate, you are saying that 2025 is worth 5% less than 2024, because I can put $1000 in savings or the stock market or whatever and have $1085 next year - $35 inflation = $1050 of today's dollars; therefore anything I'm buying in 2024 to use in 2025 is something I should value 5% less than something I'm buying in 2024 to use in 2024.

So with that math, Year 1 is worth 1 of todays years, but year 2 is worth 0.95 of todays years, and year 3 is worth 0.9025, year 4 0.857, and year 5 0.814. So its worth 4.52 of todays years. What you are discounting is each future year's value.

If you take a buy in of $100 and divide by 5 you get $20 per year.
If you take a buy in of $100 and divide by 4.52, you get $22 per year and some change, a higher number.

Did I explain that reasonably well?


FOOTNOTE: By the way, you might want to use more or less than 5% depending how aggressive your investments are and how the stock market performs etc, but over time the S&P 500 returns about 9% per year, and inflation is about 2.5% per year, so if you're like me and stick everything in tracking funds, you will net about 6.5% per year in savings. I think with inflation running higher than normal and most people being more conservative with their savings than just sticking it all in a tracking fund, most people should use a lower rate than that.

But I don't think anyone should be assuming that a hotel room in 2070 is worth as much to them today as a hotel room in 2024.

 

[Chili327]

Lets take a contract that has 5 years left for easy math.

With a 0% discount rate, year 1 is worth 1 today's years, year 2 is worth 1 of today's years, so is year 3, and 4, and 5, so the 5 years combined are worth 5 of today's years.

With a 5% discount rate, you are saying that 2025 is worth 5% less than 2024, because I can put $1000 in savings or the stock market or whatever and have $1085 next year - $35 inflation = $1050 of today's dollars; therefore anything I'm buying in 2024 to use in 2025 is something I should value 5% less than something I'm buying in 2024 to use in 2024.

So with that math, Year 1 is worth 1 of todays years, but year 2 is worth 0.95 of todays years, and year 3 is worth 0.9025, year 4 0.857, and year 5 0.814. So its worth 4.52 of todays years. What you are discounting is each future year's value.

If you take a buy in of $100 and divide by 5 you get $20 per year.
If you take a buy in of $100 and divide by 4.52, you get $22 per year and some change, a higher number.

Did I explain that reasonably well?


FOOTNOTE: By the way, you might want to use more or less than 5% depending how aggressive your investments are and how the stock market performs etc, but over time the S&P 500 returns about 9% per year, and inflation is about 2.5% per year, so if you're like me and stick everything in tracking funds, you will net about 6.5% per year in savings. I think with inflation running higher than normal and most people being more conservative with their savings than just sticking it all in a tracking fund, most people should use a lower rate than that.

But I don't think anyone should be assuming that a hotel room in 2070 is worth as much to them today as a hotel room in 2024.

Yes. So like a depreciation value, got it.
I guess I never think about comparing to any investments, but maybe I should. I just figure I want to get the best deal for my money, but it also has to fit within my style for vacation.

 

[skier_pete]

Love how every single version of these tells me I'm an idiot for buying BCVs without telling me I'm an idiot for buying BCVs lol

No, it's telling you that you are paying a premium for a guarantee staying at BCV (assuming you've bought it recently). As long as you understand you are making the choice to do this, you are most definitely NOT an idiot.

IF I want to use my much "better value" AKV points to stay at BCV - I am paying less than you - but I am also taking the chance that I can get into the resort at 7-months, or in the case of BCV that a wait list room will come through.

Charts like the ones in this thread are basically “Sleep Around Points” economics, because there’s a presumption that “a point is a point” and they all have equal value. It kind of goes without saying that the home resort advantage angle gives different value to each of these, but the charts provide the cost per point for anything booked at 7mo or less.

This is really the point of these charts. People need to remember that points become pretty much equal once you hit the 7-month booking window. So a person buying BCV points and then waiting to use them at the Grand Floridian at 7 months are paying a lot more than someone buying BLT points and booking at VGF at 7-months.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Fidelity’s June 2024 prices are out, which I suspect reflect the resale market more than those from the board sponsor, which always seem inflated. Would be nice to see @CastAStone modify the chart to those prices to see if anything changes.

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/...e-dvc-resale-price-per-point-by-contract-size

 

[CastAStone]

Fidelity’s June 2024 prices are out, which I suspect reflect the resale market more than those from the board sponsor, which always seem inflated. Would be nice to see @CastAStone modify the chart to those prices to see if anything changes.

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/...e-dvc-resale-price-per-point-by-contract-size

LOL you guys are working me today. Here is what happen when I plug in the Fidelityrealestate.com numbers and sort by 5% discount rate. I've included the rankings for various other discount rates. The order for simple math is identical between the DVCRM prices and the Fidelity prices, but obviously the total costs are different. These don't factor in non-dues closing costs either, and Fidelity has an extra closing cost vs DVCRM that works out to $1-$2/point for most contracts.

Fidelity wasn't lower on every single resort!

 

[atthebeachclub]

LOL you guys are working me today. Here is what happen when I plug in the Fidelityrealestate.com numbers and sort by 5% discount rate. I've included the rankings for various other discount rates. The order for simple math is identical between the DVCRM prices and the Fidelity prices, but obviously the total costs are different. These don't factor in non-dues closing costs either, and Fidelity has an extra closing cost vs DVCRM that works out to $1-$2/point for most contracts.

Fidelity wasn't lower on every single resort!


View attachment 873406

Thank you! This is excellent. Hilton Head looks shockingly better than I anticipated, too. Though I have read you need a lawyer involved to close there and that is an extra cost. Interesting to see how the dues are important, but with increasing interest rates, the up front cost gains in importance as well, and sometimes offsets high dues. Which my gut and basic math already understood but it always feels good to have validation.

 

[smileyanna]

I guess I never think about comparing to any investments, but maybe I should.

To add to @CastAStone's excellent explanation: People should think about discounting even if they would otherwise keep their money under their mattress. Discounting helps get our heads around time, full stop.

A point you get to use in 50 years simply isn't as good as a point you get to use today. When you buy a contract that gives you some fixed amount of points every year, it isn't as good as a contract that would dump the full allotment of lifetime points today in your DVC dashboard, all at once. Discounting helps calculate that difference.

The initial tables that were posted in this thread are calculating the cost per point for a contract that dumps the lifetime number of points in your dashboard all at once. That is fundamentally NOT the product we are all buying/enjoying.

(And it goes without saying - a table or ranking can't tell you where or whether to buy...)