- Joined
- Apr 18, 2018
Unlike the other properties that expire in 24 years, Old Key West is a unique property in several ways. Not least because it has two expiration dates. Upon further reflection, I think it is quite likely that Disney has already made their decision and developed their plan for what to do with Old Key West in 24 years.
I think that if you look at the fact that they are buying OKW 24 year contracts on ROFR, and then turning around and selling them as 39 year contracts, then it seems very likely that they have already decided to 'extend' OKW, in general, until 2057. They might, or might not offer the same 15 year extension once again, to current owners of OKW, but whether they do that or not, I think they are likely just going to 'take' whatever contracts expire in 2042, and continue to sell them as DVC properties, with an expiration date in 2057, just as they are already doing with the secondary market.
I think this also makes a lot of sense when you consider that they will also be getting large numbers of properties into DVC from Boardwalk, Beach Club, Boulder Ridge, Hilton head, and Vero beach at the same time. If they can remove the remainder of old key west from the pool by continuing to sell it with the 2057 expiration date then it actually decreases competition for sales on all of the properties.
Will the price for these new '15 Year DVC Memberships' cut into the market value for full term properties? Or will it become kind of an 'entry level' DVC purchase for new people who don't care about a longer period of time?
What about the massive number of “new” DVC properties that Disney gets from the other expired contracts at the other resorts? All at the same time? They will certainly have a very large number of DVC units to sell at a wide variety of locations. If they’re not careful they could overwhelmed their market. Clearly it would probably also be a disaster to have new DVC units being built at about that same time in 24 years. Therefore I expect that construction of new units will stop for at least several years.
I think that if you look at the fact that they are buying OKW 24 year contracts on ROFR, and then turning around and selling them as 39 year contracts, then it seems very likely that they have already decided to 'extend' OKW, in general, until 2057. They might, or might not offer the same 15 year extension once again, to current owners of OKW, but whether they do that or not, I think they are likely just going to 'take' whatever contracts expire in 2042, and continue to sell them as DVC properties, with an expiration date in 2057, just as they are already doing with the secondary market.
I think this also makes a lot of sense when you consider that they will also be getting large numbers of properties into DVC from Boardwalk, Beach Club, Boulder Ridge, Hilton head, and Vero beach at the same time. If they can remove the remainder of old key west from the pool by continuing to sell it with the 2057 expiration date then it actually decreases competition for sales on all of the properties.
Will the price for these new '15 Year DVC Memberships' cut into the market value for full term properties? Or will it become kind of an 'entry level' DVC purchase for new people who don't care about a longer period of time?
What about the massive number of “new” DVC properties that Disney gets from the other expired contracts at the other resorts? All at the same time? They will certainly have a very large number of DVC units to sell at a wide variety of locations. If they’re not careful they could overwhelmed their market. Clearly it would probably also be a disaster to have new DVC units being built at about that same time in 24 years. Therefore I expect that construction of new units will stop for at least several years.
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