# Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?



## bookwormde

Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?

Below is the average asking on the aggregating site and my guesses for what resale contacts that come on the market will average for the next 6 months, what are yours?

actuals in (###)

6/1 new contract levels  and sales data updated are below

These represent the averages from 5/16 to 5/31

Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 199 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)

actuals in (###)

I have added average actual selling price for April from DIS ROFR [] and April for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057


I have added partial numbers for DIS ROFR for May and the reseller data for May

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April and 6/1 for May: Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1 ...6/1 …7/1 8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[104]{105} 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(152*)[138]{141} 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[110]{116} 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[139]{147} 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[155]{161} 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[ND/96} {93} 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]66} 52 50 48




*over 50% less than 100 pts

With the exception of OKW, BLT and Poly most significant increases were from a single contract at 30%+ above average


----------



## TraderSamWDW

It is a good question.  A potentially huge factor is there is no more semi-artificial floor to the prices.
ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.  

Honestly I hope they dont drop at all, because they will drop because of hard economic times, and no one wants those.

I think prices would have to drop below your low points for disney to get aggressive with ROFR for they simple will not have the cash


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

TraderSamWDW said:


> ROFR used to be that(and will be again), *but since DIS wont be doing that, *who knows.


Is there a source for that?  Or is it just speculation?


----------



## poofyo101

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Is there a source for that?  Or is it just speculation?


speculation.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Is there a source for that?  Or is it just speculation?


Speculation.  Disney has a lot of debt service and very little income right now.  They actually have to worry about the health of their overall business.  Certainly could be wrong, but between the Fox acquisition and almost non existent income right now, they have a lot of debt service and little cash flow.  Combine that with how they cannibalized their own business models for Disney Plus (at least in the short term) further reducing income.....

ETA: a lot of other companies in similar sectors are likely to go bankrupt or need a bail out just to stay in business.  (Carnival and Royal Caribbean being 2 that come to mind)

I should have said "PROBABLY wont be doing that"


----------



## bookwormde

Much of the modeling I used was from the great recession (figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective). As part of this I am expecting a dramatic reduction in ROFR  in late spring and summer, except where they are selling new points and need to support the market.


----------



## Fido Chuckwagon

TraderSamWDW said:


> It is a good question.  A potentially huge factor is there is no more semi-artificial floor to the prices.
> ROFR used to be that(and will be again), but since DIS wont be doing that, who knows.
> 
> Honestly I hope they dont drop at all, because they will drop because of hard economic times, and no one wants those.
> 
> I think prices would have to drop below your low points for disney to get aggressive with ROFR for they simple will not have the cash


Has there been an announcement that DIS won’t be doing ROFR? 

Edit:  Nevermind, I see it was speculation.  Makes sense though.


----------



## Brianstl

40-50% drop, more if this last more than 8 weeks.


----------



## poofyo101

One of the big brokers who does instant sale has lowered their prices really really low on their instant offers now.


----------



## DaveNan

what about RR


----------



## Brianstl

Here is the list of average resale prices for  https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.


----------



## Brianstl

DaveNan said:


> what about RR


Probably even bigger drop there as there will be a ton of buyer's regret from people who just recently bought contracts.


----------



## MICKIMINI

ROFR is/has always been a threat.  DVC _will_ step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners.  If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners.  I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.

There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value.  I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract.  My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not.  I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not.  Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!


----------



## Brianstl

MICKIMINI said:


> ROFR is/has always been a threat.  DVC _will_ step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners.  If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners.  I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.
> 
> There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value.  I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract.  My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not.  I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not.  Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!


Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in.  Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Brianstl said:


> Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in.  Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.


With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996.  DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero.  I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop.  If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract.  DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR.  Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO.  Be well.


----------



## skippytx

They'll soften what they take in ROFR, but there won't be any giveaways like VGF @90 or something silly like that. 

This all depends on how long the current situation lasts.  If the domestic parks are closed for 2 more months it'll be a much different situation than if things get back up and going in 2 weeks or so.


----------



## bookwormde

DaveNan said:


> what about RR


there are so few resales and the impact of the resale restrictions has no history so I could not model it

I would be interested if anyone has guesses for RR


----------



## Brianstl

MICKIMINI said:


> With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996.  DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero.  I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop.  If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract.  DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR.  Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO.  Be well.


Disney has never had revenue disrupted to this level before.  Disney just sold another $6 billion in debt to fund operations.  Disney isn't paying 3.8% interest to have cash to buyback DVC contracts at a time they have no revenue coming in.


----------



## bookwormde

Brianstl said:


> Here is the list of average resale prices for  https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.
> 
> View attachment 482372


here is the longer term trend from this reseller


----------



## Brian Noble

bookwormde said:


> figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective


I think we are headed for something that will be worse than the Great Recession. Illinois saw 64,000 unemployment claims in _three days_ starting on March 16. Ohio saw 140,000 in the week ending yesterday. The WSJ  has a panel of economists estimating about 875,000 claims this week nationwide. Goldman Sachs thinks it could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.

Some of those jobs will come back, but some of them won't---at least, not right away. The underlying businesses will have failed in the meantime.


----------



## ELMC

bookwormde said:


> Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?


----------



## MICKIMINI

bookwormde said:


> here is the longer term trend from this reseller
> View attachment 482441


Thanks for posting.  It is helpful to see the trends however it is not the entire story IMHO.  For instance, I paid $59 pp for two VBR's in 2018 and sold for $79 exactly one year later and just paid capital gains tax on the profit.  It was a bundle so I only paid one closing.  I also paid $98 pp for two OKW last year (also a bundle one closing) but it had triple points and I was able to rent many points (paid taxes on that too) which offset by $15 pp and then we also had a ton of points for our personal use.  I also note that I negotiated for 0 MF's on one year and 50% on another year's worth which likely offset taxes I paid.  With the rental market in question, I don't think I would gamble at this point, though I will be looking for a couple small contracts this fall.  It is still the bottom line that matters.  Be well.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Brianstl said:


> Disney is not going to buy back contracts when they aren't selling any points and when they have next to zero revenue coming in.  Disney will hold the line on expenses that are non essential to continue functioning.


Parks is ~40% of DIS revenue fwiw. 




Brian Noble said:


> I think we are headed for something that will be worse than the Great Recession. Illinois saw 64,000 unemployment claims in _three days_ starting on March 16. Ohio saw 140,000 in the week ending yesterday. The WSJ  has a panel of economists estimating about 875,000 claims this week nationwide. Goldman Sachs thinks it could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.
> 
> Some of those jobs will come back, but some of them won't---at least, not right away. The underlying businesses will have failed in the meantime.


The Great Recession didn't have the entire service industry shut down via government order.  I wouldn't be surprised to see those numbers fall off in a week or two.


----------



## Brianstl

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Parks is ~40% of DIS revenue fwiw.
> 
> View attachment 482451
> 
> The Great Recession didn't have the entire service industry shut down via government order.  I wouldn't be surprised to see those numbers fall off in a week or two.


Disney doesn’t have revenue coming in from other streams either.  Theaters are closed and ad rates have tanked.  They have no programming for ESPN and ESPN+.  That is why they had to sell $6 billion in bonds.


----------



## sethschroeder

bookwormde said:


> Much of the modeling I used was from the great recession (figuring this round would be 40 to 60% as bad from an economic perspective). As part of this I am expecting a dramatic reduction in ROFR  in late spring and summer, except where they are selling new points and need to support the market.



Did it drop that fast though?



Brian Noble said:


> I think we are headed for something that will be worse than the Great Recession. Illinois saw 64,000 unemployment claims in _three days_ starting on March 16. Ohio saw 140,000 in the week ending yesterday. The WSJ  has a panel of economists estimating about 875,000 claims this week nationwide. Goldman Sachs thinks it could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.
> 
> Some of those jobs will come back, but some of them won't---at least, not right away. The underlying businesses will have failed in the meantime.



Much of that is forced closures though remeber.

At this point at least to my knowledge businesses are not going bankrupt left and right and being proactive. Instead they are cutting costs to survive the next 6-18 months. 

Truly hoping these businesses can make it through to the other side.


----------



## ELMC

sethschroeder said:


> At this point at least to my knowledge businesses are not going bankrupt left and right and being proactive. Instead they are cutting costs to survive the next 6-18 months.
> 
> Truly hoping these businesses can make it through to the other side.


Larger businesses, yes.  Companies like Uber and such that have six billion in cash to ride this out.  Small businesses, however, don't, and they're going to start dropping like flies in another few weeks.


----------



## sethschroeder

ELMC said:


> Small businesses, however, don't, and they're going to start dropping like flies in another few weeks.



Hence why they are dropping employees and hopefully the building owners understand throwing out these small businesses will only hurt them long term since one is going to be replacing them to pay the lease anyways.

I was simply pointing out that the unemployment numbers will be misleading as this is unprecedented.


----------



## bookwormde

sethschroeder said:


> Did it drop that fast though?



It was not this fast but went significantly deeper but last time there was no interruption of the ability to book or loss of points. On the other side there was much more risk of primary residence foreclosure

My ,model assumed a 2.5 to 4 month closure


----------



## Brian Noble

Starport Seven-Five said:


> The Great Recession didn't have the entire service industry shut down via government order.





sethschroeder said:


> Truly hoping these businesses can make it through to the other side.


Granted. But, even after the mandated closures are lifted (and I don't think that happens before mid-April at the earliest) many households may well still curtail a lot of their out-of-home consumption. So, some of these companies will reopen. But, some won't---particularly those with high debt service loads that were dependent on free cash flow at relatively low margins.

More importantly, there is essentially a global pause of in-person business. That's going to have real impacts. Some of it will create knock-on increases in demand once things let up, but some of it will also just stop for a while before coming back.

I was seeing signs of a slowdown even before all of this. For example, this year graduate school applications at my institution and many others were up across a wide variety of fields. That's not a demographic shift--there weren't suddenly more college graduates. Instead, graduate programs are often counter-cyclical; as the job market cools, applications go up, and vice versa.

I'm admittedly a contrarian, and so I've thought we were due for a pause or drop in growth for a while now. But, this is a pretty big shock to the system. If we were due, that bill is coming. Now. I definitely hope I am wrong about this, but time will tell.


----------



## SherylLC

ELMC said:


> View attachment 482448


succinct, and to the point. I like it.


----------



## chalee94

MICKIMINI said:


> With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996.  DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero.  I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop.  If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract.  DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR.  Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO.  Be well.



With all due respect, I have also been in this game that long also. Disney simply doesn't have that much cash or that much control. OKW passed ROFR at $25 in the last recession (and resorts were not closed down and resale purchasers were still treated as equals to direct purchasers). For 18 months or so during the Great Recession, Disney only ROFRed a handful of BCV contracts.

ROFR is primarily a tool to annoy resale purchasers into paying direct pricing. It also allows Disney to pick up great deals when their economic models greenlight the purchase. But I keep telling you guys that you are confusing correlation with causation - supply and demand are central and ROFR is secondary. When demand collapses, Disney will drop out as valuations are uncertain. If you think DVC will "hold the line" and "protect the brand" by continuing to ROFR contracts that they are uncertain of being able to resell (and may have issues even renting), I think you are being wildly optimistic.


----------



## ELMC

chalee94 said:


> ROFR is primarily a tool to annoy resale purchasers into paying direct pricing. It also allows Disney to pick up great deals when their economic models greenlight the purchase. But I keep telling you guys that you are confusing correlation with causation - supply and demand are central and ROFR is secondary. When demand collapses, Disney will drop out as valuations are uncertain. If you think DVC will "hold the line" and "protect the brand" by continuing to ROFR contracts that they are uncertain of being able to resell (and may have issues even renting), I think you are being wildly optimistic.


Agreed.  Taking capital and tying it up in buybacks of DVC points that they may not be able to move is a terrible use of cash, especially given the other pressures already on Disney.


----------



## Brianstl

ELMC said:


> Agreed.  Taking capital and tying it up in buybacks of DVC points that they may not be able to move is a terrible use of cash, especially given the other pressures already on Disney.


You don’t go out and borrow $6 billion to buyback DVC contracts.  You do that to survive this crisis.


----------



## Brian Noble

Even if you wanted to, it wouldn't be prudent until prices drop much farther. Rule of thumb in the timeshare industry is that marketing is 40-50% of the total cost of the product. Actual construction/acquisition is closer to 20-30%. In other words, ROFR'ing resale deeds at 50% of the "full price" is still more expensive than just building a brand new resort.


----------



## jarestel

When there are more contracts on the market than buyers who want those contracts, prices will definitely drop. If unemployment problems stretch out longer than a month or two, people will be looking for alternate sources of income and DVC contracts will be among the first assets to go. ROFR won't protect contracts from decreasing in value, but it would probably keep them from becoming worthless.


----------



## WeatherLights

While it doesn't help anything for me to speculate, I'm doing it anyways.  DVC is a completely useless product right now and into the foreseeable future.  Resale contracts are likely to  start free-falling in value in the next few days or weeks.  Will likely end up nearly worthless.  Even if the economy is able to partially recover this year (that's optimistic in my opinion) the cost for on-site rooms will likely be significantly reduced so the value of DVC will be reduced accordingly.  I'm not a DVC owner and might not fully understand how it works, but I don't see a scenario where it retains value.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

MICKIMINI said:


> With all due respect, I've been in this game since 1996.  DVC does hold the line and will never let prices go to zero.  I've been through many downturns as an owner, 9/11, 2008 and watched prices drop.  If DVC sees a sales price that is too low and "low" is whatever their definition is at the time, yes, they will ROFR a contract.  DVC has value and it is in their best interest to protect the Disney brand through ROFR.  Protecting the Disney brand is essential to continue functioning into "infinity and beyond" IMHO.  Be well.


Disney hasn't had their parks closed to 3 consecutive days  in 25 years. Let alone 3 weeks...and they will probably be closed for at least a total of 2 months..  They aren't going to let points go for 20$ per, but rofr activity will diminish.  Disney hasn't had to worry about bankruptcy in 25 years.   They have a lot of debt right now (they just spent 70 billion). The "gane" hasn't seen Disney's operating income drop like this in 25 years.   You have a lot of experience,  but no one has seen anything like this. Hopefully it passes quickly, but even then,  we don't know what the financial aftermath of this will be.

I honestly hope you are right,  and that ROFR doesn't change much because that will mean we are past this with minimal damage.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Brianstl said:


> Disney doesn’t have revenue coming in from other streams either.  Theaters are closed and ad rates have tanked.  They have no programming for ESPN and ESPN+.  That is why they had to sell $6 billion in bonds.


Not to mention they (purposely) cannabilized their own business units,  knowing it would hurt short term income, to do Disney plus.   They had to rework compensation models because various business units p&ls were going to get killed. .

Video is going to lose hundreds of millions in income from parting ways with Netflix.   In the short term that is.

This is straight from "Ride of a lifetime", not speculation.


----------



## RaymOOOnd

I disagree.
Disney will be fine.
And to excitedly spend $20,000 rather than $30,000 on a timeshare while the market is crashing around oneself would be... Not the best use of one's money. 

Dis current stock price of around $85 will look unbelievably low in 3-5yrs


----------



## TraderSamWDW

RaymOOOnd said:


> I disagree.
> Disney will be fine.
> And to excitedly spend $20,000 rather than $30,000 on a timeshare while the market is crashing around oneself would be... Not the best use of one's money.
> 
> Dis current stock price of around $85 will look unbelievably low in 3-5yrs


They will probably be fine.   But wall street doesn't want fine in 3 to 5 years.  They want fine in 3 months.

Why do u think it would not be there best use of one's money, but would be the best use of Disney's money.?  Disney had debt to service.   Stock holders are going to miss their dividends.

Disney exercising ROFR is exactly that,  disney buying a time share. 

I do think at 85 a share it is a good long term investment.


----------



## MICKIMINI

TraderSamWDW said:


> Disney hasn't had their parks closed to 3 consecutive days  in 25 years. Let alone 3 weeks...and they will probably be closed for at least a total of 2 months..  They aren't going to let points go for 20$ per, but rofr activity will diminish.  Disney hasn't had to worry about bankruptcy in 25 years.   They have a lot of debt right now (they just spent 70 billion). The "gane" hasn't seen Disney's operating income drop like this in 25 years.   You have a lot of experience,  but no one has seen anything like this. Hopefully it passes quickly, but even then,  we don't know what the financial aftermath of this will be.
> 
> I honestly hope you are right,  and that ROFR doesn't change much because that will mean we are past this with minimal damage.


This is unprecedented and you are correct that "we don't know what the financial aftermath of this will be".  Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  Disclosure:  Along with being a 25 yr DVC member, I've been a featured guest before at WDW being backstage and involved, from experience I know their _brand_ is their biggest asset.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

MICKIMINI said:


> This is unprecedented and you are correct that "we don't know what the financial aftermath of this will be".  Let's hope for the best and prepare for the worst.  Disclosure:  Along with being a 25 yr DVC member, I've been a featured guest before at WDW being backstage and involved, from experience I know their _brand_ is their biggest asset.


Of course it is, its one of the most trusted brands in the world! And there is a decent financial guy out in Nebraska....buffet something or other,.... that says,  protect the brand at all costs!


----------



## TraderSamWDW

RaymOOOnd said:


> I disagree.
> Disney will be fine.
> And to excitedly spend $20,000 rather than $30,000 on a timeshare while the market is crashing around oneself would be... Not the best use of one's money.
> 
> Dis current stock price of around $85 will look unbelievably low in 3-5yrs


Disney will be fine (assuming this doesnt go on for a year or something).
Why do you say buying a time share is not the best use of ones money (I agree...if times are bad), but DIsney exercising ROFR is exactly that - Disney buying a time share.  Why would it be a good use of their money?

I personally think Disney is a fine long term buy, but Wall Street does not want fine in 3-5 years, they want fine in 3 months.

Plus, with no cash, Disney can not buy back their own stock, therefore the cant utilize the wall street trick of lowering the price to earnings ratio by lowering the number of outstanding shares.  Less outstanding shares raises earnings per share.   And investors are going to want their dividends back.

If after all this chaos is over Disney ends up in a post 9/11 state, being closed 2 months will mean a 12 month run( starting 3/16/2020) that  part attendance that is 16% lower then 9/2001 - 9/2002  since they where only open 10 months.

Again, I think they will recover, I just think ROFR is going to be relaxed a good degree (not eliminated).

Again, I hope this is over in a week, and we get on with out lives in good health and good financial times


----------



## CaliAdventurer

And what if Apple buys them?


----------



## bookwormde

back on topic, limited data but AKV is tracking at an average of 109


----------



## ELMC

jarestel said:


> When there are more contracts on the market than buyers who want those contracts, prices will definitely drop. If unemployment problems stretch out longer than a month or two, people will be looking for alternate sources of income and DVC contracts will be among the first assets to go. ROFR won't protect contracts from decreasing in value, but it would probably keep them from becoming worthless.


I agree.  I would also like to add that it won't just be ROFR keeping contracts from being worthless, the "DVC vultures" will do this as well.  Even in the biggest economic downturns there is always money sitting on the sidelines.  There are a number of potential buyers who will be able to shake this off and will be looking to buy the dip on DVC points.  The big question is...how many and how much will supply outpace demand?



WeatherLights said:


> While it doesn't help anything for me to speculate, I'm doing it anyways.  DVC is a completely useless product right now and into the foreseeable future.  Resale contracts are likely to  start free-falling in value in the next few days or weeks.  Will likely end up nearly worthless.  Even if the economy is able to partially recover this year (that's optimistic in my opinion) the cost for on-site rooms will likely be significantly reduced so the value of DVC will be reduced accordingly.  I'm not a DVC owner and might not fully understand how it works, but I don't see a scenario where it retains value.


Go ahead and speculate, that's the fun of this discussion.  

I agree with just about everything you wrote except the part about the contracts being nearly worthless.  I have been Mr. Doom and Gloom on here but I think you took that title away from me with this prediction.  That said, I think we are about to return to the days of $60 pp on-site DVC resale contracts.


----------



## KayKayJS

ELMC said:


> I agree.  I would also like to add that it won't just be ROFR keeping contracts from being worthless, the "DVC vultures" will do this as well.  Even in the biggest economic downturns there is always money sitting on the sidelines.  There are a number of potential buyers who will be able to shake this off and will be looking to buy the dip on DVC points.  The big question is...how many and how much will supply outpace demand?
> 
> 
> Go ahead and speculate, that's the fun of this discussion.
> 
> I agree with just about everything you wrote except the part about the contracts being nearly worthless.  I have been Mr. Doom and Gloom on here but I think you took that title away from me with this prediction.  That said, I think we are about to return to the days of $60 pp on-site DVC resale contracts.



I hope I still have a job if $60pp contracts are around.. We have been wanting to buy Aulani for years. 

It will be interesting to see how this all plays out. Obviously I would prefer the economy stay strong and pay more.


----------



## rkstocke5609

WeatherLights said:


> While it doesn't help anything for me to speculate, I'm doing it anyways.  DVC is a completely useless product right now and into the foreseeable future.  Resale contracts are likely to  start free-falling in value in the next few days or weeks.  Will likely end up nearly worthless.  Even if the economy is able to partially recover this year (that's optimistic in my opinion) the cost for on-site rooms will likely be significantly reduced so the value of DVC will be reduced accordingly.  I'm not a DVC owner and might not fully understand how it works, but I don't see a scenario where it retains value.



I disagree with this.  Resales will not free fall in the next few days or weeks.  Very few that own DVC contracts will dramatically drop their price to panic sell.  Most wont be that desperate.  I do agree that prices will fall over the next 12 months.  How much will be determined by the length and ramifications of the crisis.  I do not agree with “end up nearly worthless” on any level.  I bet there are some folks out there chomping at the bit to buy more resale points at huge discounts.  But, maybe I’m a glass full kinda guy....


----------



## mamaofsix

bookwormde said:


> Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?
> 
> Below is the average asking on the aggregating site and my guesses for what resale contacts that come on the market will average for the next 6 months, what are yours?
> 
> 3/20       4/1         5/1         6/1         7/1         8/1         9/1
> 
> 
> 
> AKV       114         110         105         100         96           92           90
> 
> AUL        101         98           95           90           85           82           80
> 
> BLT         150         140         135         130         128         124         124
> 
> BCV        147         145         140         135         132         130         128
> 
> BWV      126         120         115         110         106         103         100
> 
> BRV        100         95           90           85           80           76           72
> 
> CCV        155         150         142         136         128         125         125
> 
> VGC       199         195         190         186         182         180         180
> 
> VGF       177         172         168         165         162         160         158
> 
> HH          81           78           72           68           65           62           60
> 
> OKW      102         97           90           84           78           72           70
> 
> POLY      148         142         136         130         125         120         120
> 
> SS           106         100         94           88           85           82           80
> 
> VB          67           64           60           56           52           50           48


To answer you question, personally, I think these numbers are optimistic.  In the past few days alone, prices have already dropped at some resort to your May or June levels.  Listings for VGF in the high 150s, AKL at 105, BCV in the 130s...

I think we're going to see a much steeper drop.  

We have not bought into DVC yet, but a good deal would be mighty tempting.


----------



## bookwormde

mamaofsix said:


> To answer you question, personally, I think these numbers are optimistic.  In the past few days alone, prices have already dropped at some resort to your May or June levels.  Listings for VGF in the high 150s, AKL at 105, BCV in the 130s...
> 
> I think we're going to see a much steeper drop.
> 
> We have not bought into DVC yet, but a good deal would be mighty tempting.


Yes I was trying to not be pessimistic or alarming but it could move to 100% of the same percent decline as the great recession or even further,

I saw what I created as a baseline that can/will be adjusted as data comes in.

Actual sale prices are also going to be significantly different from asking price and this tends to widen as the supply demand ratio grows


----------



## MICKIMINI

Owners, even those who have lost jobs already are not going to list quite yet, for the most part unless they are really on thin ice.  People are waiting to see how much money our government offers up to keep things going.  Many owners are retirees with good size fixed monthly checks, lots of people paid off debt during the last go-go decade and are in good shape and many will not loose their jobs.  There is money out there...and will be even after the dust settles.

The amount of available contracts will start a price war as those listed have to compete for whatever buyers are out there.  There will be a lag time as negotiations and offers are thrown out there.  Owners will initially reject lower offers and after a period of time may adjust their thinking.  This is an emotional purchase with most DVC people heavily invested in all things Disney...but the market shake up happens periodically and people need to do what is right for their family.  Those waiting to purchase may be a life saver to those that need to sell.  Peace.


----------



## bookwormde

One other item that I could not get my head around was if the additional risk not previously recognized in renting points will either bring those prices down or make it be perceived by owners a to much of a haste for the benefit and they begin to reduce their points to just those that are presently needed. I do think there will still be a market for transfers, since the risk assignment there is clear.

Probably just a small incremental increase in resales from this, but in a saturated market could have an impact


----------



## Matty B13

Problem for most owners who could barely afford to keep up with MF's, at least they could rent to get by.  But now, rentals are a mess and will be for some time to come, plus Disney will probably have to discount rooms steeply to get people to come back after this.

I know our family will be staying in bigger units, since the whole rental market is a mess right now.


----------



## mamaofsix

bookwormde said:


> Yes I was trying to not be pessimistic or alarming but it could move t 100% of the same percent decline as the great recession or even further,
> 
> I saw what i created as a baseline that can/will be adjusted as data comes in.
> 
> Actual sale prices are also going to be significantly different from asking price and this tends to widen as the supply demand ratio grows


Really good points.   I agree with those above that say ROFR will be non-existent while Disney tries to stay afloat - which would essentially be a "first."  We're in unprecedented territory and recessions of the past can't compare to what's happening right now.  This might sound extreme (call me crazy), but here are my predictions for where prices will be at come September.  For those who will need to sell, I hope I'm wrong, though:

AKV       65

AUL        60

BLT         90

BCV       70

BWV      70

BRV        60

CCV        80

VGC       120

VGF       100

HH          40

OKW       55

POLY        80

SS            50

VB           30


----------



## bookwormde

Matty B13 said:


> Problem for most owners who could barely afford to keep up with MF's, at least they could rent to get by.  But now, rentals are a mess and will be for some time to come, plus Disney will probably have to discount rooms steeply to get people to come back after this.
> 
> I know our family will be staying in bigger units, since the whole rental market is a mess right now.


Thanks, I had not considered that some would just book bigger villas to use the points


----------



## bookwormde

mamaofsix said:


> Really good points.   I agree with those above that say ROFR will be non-existent while Disney tries to stay afloat - which would essentially be a "first."  We're in unprecedented territory and recessions of the past can't compare to what's happening right now.  This might sound extreme (call me crazy), but here are my predictions for where prices will be at come September.  For those who will need to sell, I hope I'm wrong, though:
> 
> AKV       65
> 
> AUL        60
> 
> BLT         90
> 
> BCV       70
> 
> BWV      70
> 
> BRV        60
> 
> CCV        80
> 
> VGC       120
> 
> VGF       100
> 
> HH          40
> 
> OKW       55
> 
> POLY        80
> 
> SS            50
> 
> VB           30


That is about where my model was if it gets as bad as after 2008, though I had OKW at 40 for 2042 contracts and HH at 35


----------



## Matty B13

bookwormde said:


> Thanks, I had not considered that some would just book bigger villas to use the points


I just had to help a renter rearrange their stay in the beginning of April, even though I told them it was a non-refundable transaction, but I wouldn't have felt right just taking their money.  I was able to get some of the points back, but not all, luckily it was for under 20 points.

I think a lot of people who liked to own a lot of points, and enjoyed doing rentals for people, will be rethinking this approach to owning DVC from now on.  We have three different UY's and would rent out our extra points, but when traveling late in your UY makes it almost impossible to rearrange a trip if something happens...... or your renters trip.

I'll bet that a lot of contracts will be re-written to take pandemics into account, and not be refundable.  This will probably dry up the rental market of renters not wanting to take the risk, but you never know, most people love a deal at 50% off of Disney's prices.


----------



## CLE2WDW

It’s kind of fascinating... I’m in finance so I liken Disney/DVC to the Fed. They are the “lender of last resort” and in times of distress (low DVC sale prices) they have the right to step in and provide liquidity (buy back) the contract before it goes through the secondary market. From there the contract goes into their inventory (similar to a QE program) where they can either resell the asset at a future date or simply retain the asset.
Ok enough of that... here’s my point: in times of severe distress (hello we are here) the ability for DVC/Disney to intervene in resales comes into question. Just like the current market equity dynamics I think this is a phenomenal opportunity to go bargain hunting. So go ahead and put in that $110-point offer for that POLY contract... that $130-point for that BCV contract... and that $150-point VGF contract. I’m not saying for sure that it passed ROFR but it stands to reason if we flood the market with low bids the price will adjust accordingly. As Warren Buffet our it best “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”


----------



## bookwormde

CLE2WDW said:


> It’s kind of fascinating... I’m in finance so I liken Disney/DVC to the Fed. They are the “lender of last resort” and in times of distress (low DVC sale prices) they have the right to step in and provide liquidity (buy back) the contract before it goes through the secondary market. From there the contract goes into their inventory (similar to a QE program) where they can either resell the asset at a future date or simply retain the asset.
> Ok enough of that... here’s my point: in times of severe distress (hello we are here) the ability for DVC/Disney to intervene in resales comes into question. Just like the current market equity dynamics I think this is a phenomenal opportunity to go bargain hunting. So go ahead and put in that $110-point offer for that POLY contract... that $130-point for that BCV contract... and that $150-point VGF contract. I’m not saying for sure that it passed ROFR but it stands to reason if we flood the market with low bids the price will adjust accordingly. As Warren Buffet our it best “Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy.”


this is where I was after 2008, a OKW 210 pt contract came up at $52 and I offered $45 thinking first that it would not be accepted and second that DVD would be 90+% likely to ROFR it
In the end if went through and I got points for $1.50/year based on 30 years remaining. I got a lot of years of big family trips before selling it for $80+


----------



## CLE2WDW

bookwormde said:


> this is where I was after 2008, a OKW 210 pt contract came up at $52 and I offered $45 thinking first that it would not be accepted and second that DVD would be 90+% likely to ROFR it
> In the end if went through and I got points for $1.50/year based on 30 years remaining. I got a lot of years of big family trips before selling it for $80+


Bravo on being the Warren Buffett of DVC contracts. You took a prudent risk and you have been and will continue to reap the rewards for years to come. 
Everyone that’s reading your phenomenal deal is saying “I wish I would have done that.”  Well this could be your second chance. I’d venture to guess that within the next 2-3 weeks the resale market will grind to a halt and desperation mode may set in for sellers. That’s the time to strike. The list prices might not change greatly as sellers hope to walk away with that value but their willingness to accept a low offer might be more apparent since they don’t know if/when the next offer will come.


----------



## bookwormde

CLE2WDW said:


> Bravo on being the Warren Buffett of DVC contracts. You took a prudent risk and you have been and will continue to reap the rewards for years to come.
> Everyone that’s reading your phenomenal deal is saying “I wish I would have done that.”  Well this could be your second chance. I’d venture to guess that within the next 2-3 weeks the resale market will grind to a halt and desperation mode may set in for sellers. That’s the time to strike. The list prices might not change greatly as sellers hope to walk away with that value but their willingness to accept a low offer might be more apparent since they don’t know if/when the next offer will come.


Not really in the market now for a  variety of reasons. but I guess there might be a point where I would at least consider it. so the buyers side pool could also increase at some point


----------



## Brian Noble

mamaofsix said:


> I agree with those above that say ROFR will be non-existent while Disney tries to stay afloat - which would essentially be a "first."


Except that it's not a first. ROFR all but stopped during the Great Recession.


----------



## Brianstl

mamaofsix said:


> To answer you question, personally, I think these numbers are optimistic.  In the past few days alone, prices have already dropped at some resort to your May or June levels.  Listings for VGF in the high 150s, AKL at 105, BCV in the 130s...
> 
> I think we're going to see a much steeper drop.
> 
> We have not bought into DVC yet, but a good deal would be mighty tempting.


The drop in initial asking price on new listings tells me buyers have really started to dry up.  That drop means agents are telling new sellers they have to come in lower to have a chance to attract a buyer.


----------



## jlb727

The people who are most likely to be hurt by this recession are the people who would be least likely to buy DVC anyway: restaurant workers, service workers, gig workers, etc. Retail is going pretty strong. Places like Wal-Mart and Aldi are actually hiring. Most white collar workers will be fine because they can continue working from home, at least for the time being. I don't know what the impact will be on DVC, but it probably won't be quite as large in the short term, and I think the economy will recover quickly in the long term. Once this is over, people are going to want to go out, they are going to want to travel, and they will mostly likely want to be in crowds!


----------



## RanDIZ

TraderSamWDW said:


> Speculation.  Disney has a lot of debt service and very little income right now.  They actually have to worry about the health of their overall business.  Certainly could be wrong, but between the Fox acquisition and almost non existent income right now, they have a lot of debt service and little cash flow.  Combine that with how they cannibalized their own business models for Disney Plus (at least in the short term) further reducing income.....
> 
> ETA: a lot of other companies in similar sectors are likely to go bankrupt or need a bail out just to stay in business.  (Carnival and Royal Caribbean being 2 that come to mind)
> 
> I should have said "PROBABLY wont be doing that"



Bankrupt is more like it. Govt bailed out banks and GM in the past because we need those. We don’t need cruise ships. The world will survive without them. Just like this time around, airlines will be top priority for bailouts.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

RanDIZ said:


> Bankrupt is more like it. Govt bailed out banks and GM in the past because we need those. We don’t need cruise ships. The world will survive without them. Just like this time around, airlines will be top priority for bailouts.


we didn't NEED  GM.  There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car.  And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves.   That's not really the case here.  Guess we need the banks
  We do not NEED GM.


----------



## RanDIZ

TraderSamWDW said:


> we didn't NEED  GM.  There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car.  And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves.   That's not really the case here.  Guess we need the banks
> We do not NEED GM.



True. There are other car mfg that would have been sufficient enough. But honestly, most of these companies are to blame. We just had the longest bull market in history with the economy thriving. Yet instead of companies using fiscal responsibility and stashing cash for emergencies like this, they paid themselves and the board millions in salaries.


----------



## Deploraboo

Why would anyone in their right mind right now purchase a fractional ownership interest in a resort that is indefinitely closed?


----------



## HelsBels16

...but I think they will come back in time.  In it for the long haul hopefully!


----------



## TraderSamWDW

RanDIZ said:


> True. There are other car mfg that would have been sufficient enough. But honestly, most of these companies are to blame. We just had the longest bull market in history with the economy thriving. Yet instead of companies using fiscal responsibility and stashing cash for emergencies like this, they paid themselves and the board millions in salaries.


Valid argument.  Debatable to a degree but very valid. 2008 it wasn't even debatable... that was pure greed.   This was greed and an external factor.  It set a dangerous precedent


----------



## Deploraboo

But 2008 was arguably if not factually more remediable than this situation.


----------



## CarolMN

TraderSamWDW said:


> we didn't NEED  GM.  There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car.  And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves.   That's not really the case here.  Guess we need the banks
> We do not NEED GM.





RanDIZ said:


> True. There are other car mfg that would have been sufficient enough. But honestly, most of these companies are to blame. We just had the longest bull market in history with the economy thriving. Yet instead of companies using fiscal responsibility and stashing cash for emergencies like this, they paid themselves and the board millions in salaries.


We may not NEED GM, but it employs thousands.   Can't help but wonder how long it would have taken to recover if all of those people couldn't find comparable jobs and NEEDED benefits to feed & shelter their families.   (I would have liked to see more restrictions on how the bailout moneys could be used - like no executive bonuses or stock buybacks, but have no quarrel with the concept).


----------



## Deploraboo

Taking an equity position in DIS TO PREVENT bK is one thing, but if the government is subsidizing buybacks of DVC points, that’s crazy town.


----------



## Brianstl

Deploraboo said:


> But 2008 was arguably if not factually more remediable than this situation.


2008 was a legitimate economic crisis with a ton of bad paper.  This is a public health crisis that is hurting the the economy.  There aren’t underlying economic issues that have to be dealt with this. Most sections of the economy should recover quickly when the health crisis passes.  

Now I don’t think travel and tourism will necessarily be one of them.  I think this crisis will make many countries reconsider the relatively free flow of massive amounts of people across the globe.


----------



## Brianstl

TraderSamWDW said:


> we didn't NEED  GM.  There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car.  And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves.   That's not really the case here.  Guess we need the banks
> We do not NEED GM.


If anything, this crisis should teach us that we need as much manufacturing in this country as possible.  It is a national health and national security necessity.


----------



## BillPA

With everything going down the drain, how soon will Disney raise the ticket prices?


----------



## Deploraboo

There aren’t underlying economic issues?  Sorry but the stock market is down 30+ %, UE claims this week or next will dwarf all previous weekly records, GDP estimated to go to Great Depression levels, Hotel, Tourism and Aircraft and Airlines are heading toward BK, municipal debt facing defaults due to lack of revenue, 10 year Treasury had lowest rate ever recorded, I could go on and on here...


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Brianstl said:


> If anything, this crisis should teach us that we need as much manufacturing in this country as possible.  It is a national health and national security necessity.


spot on!


----------



## TraderSamWDW

CarolMN said:


> We may not NEED GM, but it employs thousands.   Can't help but wonder how long it would have taken to recover if all of those people couldn't find comparable jobs and NEEDED benefits to feed & shelter their families.   (I would have liked to see more restrictions on how the bailout moneys could be used - like no executive bonuses or stock buybacks, but have no quarrel with the concept).


I agree, my point was you can not say dont bail out the cruise lines because we dont need them.  We have precedent, and they employ a lot people too. 
I was not going down the path of should we have or not.  Just saying we did, and they mismanaged themselves.  The cruise lines did not do that, at least not to the same degree, so its hard to say we should not bail them out if they need it.


----------



## Brianstl

Deploraboo said:


> There aren’t underlying economic issues?  Sorry but the stock market is down 30+ %, UE claims this week or next will dwarf all previous weekly records, GDP estimated to go to Great Depression levels, Hotel, Tourism and Aircraft and Airlines are heading toward BK, municipal debt facing defaults due to lack of revenue, 10 year Treasury had lowest rate ever recorded, I could go on and on here...


Underlying economic issues are not the reason we are having these problems.  We are having these problems because a public health issue has shut down so much commerce.  There are not 100’s of millions of bad loans that have to be worked through like in 2008.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Brianstl said:


> Underlying economic issues are not the reason we are having these problems.  We are having these problems because a public health issue has shut down so much commerce.  There are not 100’s of millions of bad loans that have to be worked through like in 2008.


Exactly.  The the economic issues are not 'underlying' but  result of this.  We may have been headed for a mild recession, the economy is cyclical after all.
But we were not headed for this.


----------



## Lorana

TraderSamWDW said:


> e the economic issues are not 'underlying' but result of this.



I think there are underlying economic problems that will come to light as a result of this, which will have longer impacts on our economy. After all, all the recent tax cuts have drastically undermined our economic security and we don’t have the cash flow coming in. Where is the money for all these bailouts going to come from? What happens if the government cannot increase its debt, or in crisis our debt-holders demand our debt be paid?  I’m certainly not thinking we will get that dire, but it is a possibility, and while the current situation is a health crisis, the economic problems that were already brewing will exacerbate the situation.


----------



## Brianstl

Lorana said:


> I think there are underlying economic problems that will come to light as a result of this, which will have longer impacts on our economy. After all, all the recent tax cuts have drastically undermined our economic security and we don’t have the cash flow coming in. Where is the money for all these bailouts going to come from? What happens if the government cannot increase its debt, or in crisis our debt-holders demand our debt be paid?  I’m certainly not thinking we will get that dire, but it is a possibility, and while the current situation is a health crisis, the economic problems that were already brewing will exacerbate the situation.


Taxes collected by the Federal government  were up after the tax cut.


----------



## Cyberc1978

If we end up in a depression the impact to resale prices will be huge. If we only have a short recession then the impact will be smaller however while we are there some might still need the cash fast so they dump their contracts.


----------



## RanDIZ

BillPA said:


> With everything going down the drain, how soon will Disney raise the ticket prices?



Disney is now seeing what it’s like to have “0” revenue coming from parks. People are seeing “0” or little income coming in. If Disney even thought of raising prices, they’d be further pushing themselves into debt. Disney vacations are not cheap to begin with. It will be a while before people get back on their feet. Consumers have power in numbers and for sure will make a stand and not go to parks if that’s the case. Let’s stand together!


----------



## Lorana

Brianstl said:


> Taxes collected by the Federal government  were up after the tax cut.



The data does not seem to support that:
https://www.brookings.edu/policy202...cut-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-pay-for-itself/
The CBO predicts a deficit of $1.1 Trillion in 2020, with $17.8 trillion in debt held by the public. Who knows what those numbers will look like in a few months time with the bailouts.
https://www.cbo.gov/topics/budget
Some more info on deficit and debt drivers, which cites tax cuts:  https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-budget-deficit-3305783

I am not, by any means, an economist and like most of you, I’m concerned about what the future may hold for our well-being - both health and economic. But there have been numerous factors before the pandemic indicating potential long term problems with how our economy operates and the pandemic is likely to make those come to the forefront of this continues for a long time.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

I’m one of those that had no interest in DVC at previous prices but may spend some cash on it if prices drop enough.  There is definitely a floor in the market where people like me will take a risk.  We typically stay at values or offsite but if AKL is an option at $100/night... I’m in.



TraderSamWDW said:


> we didn't NEED  GM.  There were other car manufacturers., you would have had no issue getting a car.  And GM (and the banks) did it to themselves. the bailouts of 2008 were all to companies that did it to themselves.   That's not really the case here.  Guess we need the banks
> We do not NEED GM.


If GM would have gone under, the entire automotive supply base would have followed.  This would have had a cascading affect as all of the other automakers use the same supply base and suddenly had part shortages.

Bailing out GM (primarily through loans) was necessary if you want a US auto industry coming out of the recession.  Textbook definition of too big to fail.


----------



## Deploraboo

There are bad loans. Securitized consumer and aircraft loans,  Cov lite loans, junk corporate debt, revolvers with zero protections.  We just didn’t know how bad they were until now.


----------



## sethschroeder

Has anyone thought of selling any of their contracts now and then likely re-buying in 6-12 months?

Wondering what people's thoughts are. I doubt I would do it but I like thinking through theoretical questions like this.

What are the costs associated with selling DVC? You have ROFR fee, estoppel fee, and commission (8.5% with the board sponsor it looks like).

Is anyone planning on this?


----------



## MICKIMINI

sethschroeder said:


> Has anyone thought of selling any of their contracts now and then likely re-buying in 6-12 months?
> 
> Wondering what people's thoughts are. I doubt I would do it but I like thinking through theoretical questions like this.
> 
> What are the costs associated with selling DVC? You have ROFR fee, estoppel fee, and commission (8.5% with the board sponsor it looks like).
> 
> Is anyone planning on this?


Selling is pretty much 8.5% right now in commission and no, I would not sell right now.  The points we own are not restricted points (we can use at RR).

I sold two contracts last year that I held for 1 year and made a nice profit.  I used that profit to buy 2 more loaded (triple points) contracts, rented and offset the purchase price.  Leveraging profit "has" been an option IMHO but now for me anyway, it is hold onto what I have and buy more.  I think it will be fall before there are good deals.


----------



## Sandisw

sethschroeder said:


> Has anyone thought of selling any of their contracts now and then likely re-buying in 6-12 months?
> 
> Wondering what people's thoughts are. I doubt I would do it but I like thinking through theoretical questions like this.
> 
> What are the costs associated with selling DVC? You have ROFR fee, estoppel fee, and commission (8.5% with the board sponsor it looks like).
> 
> Is anyone planning on this?



I have BWV up for sale,.,it’s been up about a month,  Accepted an offer 10 days ago, but buyer backed out today.

My fees are $150 for estoppel and the 8.5% commission because I am with the TSS.

The plan...before this all happened...was to buy BLT to replace it,  Now, we are trying to decide if we want to change up plans.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

Starport Seven-Five said:


> We typically stay at values or offsite but if AKL is an option at $100/night... I’m in.


It's important to remember that MFs represent the vast majority of the "cost" of DVC and those MFs have no relation to your buy-in price-per-point.

Obviously, getting a better price for your initial outlay saves some more $, but consider this:

Let's say you don't care about Savannah View and don't plan to travel in Magic or Premiere season.  In that case you could probably get by with 100 points for a week-long stay per year.

MFs are currently $7.67 for AKV (that will continue to rise over the years, but I'll use that figure for now).  If you purchase 100 points at current resale prices (I'm going to arbitrarily use $110 per point, which is perhaps even a bit on the high end right now), initial cost would be $11,000 plus let's add $500 closing cost... so call it $11,500.

Oversimplifying things slightly, but you'll be getting enough points to stay 7 nights/year for the next 36 years or 252 nights.  Dividing out your initial cost by 252 nights comes to around $45/night.

But you also have to figure in the annual MFs.  100 points x $7.67 = $767 per year.  So for those 7 nights each year, the MFs add another $109 and change per night.

So, even if the cost of resale contracts goes to ZERO, the average cost per night won't really be $100 or less.

At current resale prices, the cost per night in my example is in the neighborhood of $150.  Not bad in my opinion for Animal Kingdom.

My point is: if prices for resale contracts drop in half, you would save about $20-25 more per night off of an already decent rate.  Even if you got the contract for free, you'd only be saving about $45/night because the majority of your total cost comes from MFs.

Bottom line: lower resale contract prices will save you money, but because MFs are not tied to the contract cost and will only continue to rise (and as I said, represent the majority of your total cost), those savings are not substantial if you're looking at it from a cost per night perspective.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Grumpy by Birth said:


> It's important to remember that MFs represent the vast majority of the "cost" of DVC and those MFs have no relation to your buy-in price-per-point.
> 
> Obviously, getting a better price for your initial outlay saves some more $, but consider this:
> 
> Let's say you don't care about Savannah View and don't plan to travel in Magic or Premiere season.  In that case you could probably get by with 100 points for a week-long stay per year.
> 
> MFs are currently $7.67 for AKV (that will continue to rise over the years, but I'll use that figure for now).  If you purchase 100 points at current resale prices (I'm going to arbitrarily use $110 per point, which is perhaps even a bit on the high end right now), initial cost would be $11,000 plus let's add $500 closing cost... so call it $11,500.
> 
> Oversimplifying things slightly, but you'll be getting enough points to stay 7 nights/year for the next 36 years or 252 nights.  Dividing out your initial cost by 252 nights comes to around $45/night.
> 
> But you also have to figure in the annual MFs.  100 points x $7.67 = $767 per year.  So for those 7 nights each year, the MFs add another $109 and change per night.
> 
> So, even if the cost of resale contracts goes to ZERO, the average cost per night won't really be $100 or less.
> 
> At current resale prices, the cost per night in my example is in the neighborhood of $150.  Not bad in my opinion for Animal Kingdom.
> 
> My point is: if prices for resale contracts drop in half, you would save about $20-25 more per night off of an already decent rate.  Even if you got the contract for free, you'd only be saving about $45/night because the majority of your total cost comes from MFs.
> 
> Bottom line: lower resale contract prices will save you money, but because MFs are not tied to the contract cost and will only continue to rise (and as I said, represent the majority of your total cost), those savings are not substantial if you're looking at it from a cost per night perspective.


I was looking at value rooms to get that $100/night figure which is 72 points for the same week a standard view is 100 points.

(72*7.67)/7=$78.89
(60*72)/(7*36)=$17.14
Total=$96.03

I know that's optimistic in both value rooms being limited and a $60 pp price but just where my mind was at.  Your point regarding MFs is well taken as that is the primary cost when looking at these.


----------



## Deploraboo

Need to take into account price disruptions in rooms moving forward.  If economic downturn is prolonged or we enter the “d” word, even DIS isn’t immune to price reductions.


----------



## ELMC

sethschroeder said:


> Has anyone thought of selling any of their contracts now and then likely re-buying in 6-12 months?
> 
> Wondering what people's thoughts are. I doubt I would do it but I like thinking through theoretical questions like this.
> 
> What are the costs associated with selling DVC? You have ROFR fee, estoppel fee, and commission (8.5% with the board sponsor it looks like).
> 
> Is anyone planning on this?


It's a good thought exercise for sure.  I thought about it as well but ultimately decided not to.  The primary reason is that my resale contracts are grandfathered, so I technically couldn't buy the same thing back.  My head started to hurt when trying to assign a value to the blue card, so I stopped thinking about it.  

Really, though, I think the prices have already dipped a bit which is going to eat into the profit margin, and the calculation is based on what I think contracts will sell for in 6-12 months.  If I'm wrong and they don't drop as much as I thought, then I've done a whole lot of work for not a lot of money.  That said...coming into this year I downsized my DVC "portfolio" by about 60%.  It was for no particular reason at the time other than the fact that I thought the product was way overpriced and I didn't feel comfortable holding that many points.  In my mind I wasn't valuing the contracts as what I paid for them but instead what I could get for them.  When looking at it like that, the obvious course of action (for me) was to sell.  I don't think it's as clear cut right now.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

Starport Seven-Five said:


> I was looking at value rooms to get that $100/night figure which is 72 points for the same week a standard view is 100 points.
> 
> (72*7.67)/7=$78.89
> (60*72)/(7*36)=$17.14
> Total=$96.03
> 
> I know that's optimistic in both value rooms being limited and a $60 pp price but just where my mind was at.  Your point regarding MFs is well taken as that is the primary cost when looking at these.


Very optimistic to count on Value Studios.  But assuming they were readily available, here's the math for $110/point:

(72*7.67)/7=$78.89
(110*72)/(7*36)=$31.43
Total=$110.32

You didn't add closing cost to your example, so I left them off this time for an apples to apples comparison.

So, for Value Studios, we are already pretty close to your target cost/night with $110/point which, as I mentioned, I consider to be the high end of current prices.  

By all means, hold out for lower prices, but even if the price drops to $60/point, you're only looking at about $15/night savings (which admittedly adds up over the life of the contract... $15 x 252 nights = $3780).

I'm just saying that current resale prices are already fairly close to $100/night.


----------



## CLE2WDW

Deploraboo said:


> Why would anyone in their right mind right now purchase a fractional ownership interest in a resort that is indefinitely closed?


People were asking to same questions regarding stocks of banks in 2008... now those people returned 10x on their investment by being prudent while others were fearful. Believe it or not Disney will reopen one day and DVC costs will go back to record highs again. You can’t keep the US consumer down for long.


----------



## CLE2WDW

Deploraboo said:


> There aren’t underlying economic issues?  Sorry but the stock market is down 30+ %, UE claims this week or next will dwarf all previous weekly records, GDP estimated to go to Great Depression levels, Hotel, Tourism and Aircraft and Airlines are heading toward BK, municipal debt facing defaults due to lack of revenue, 10 year Treasury had lowest rate ever recorded, I could go on and on here...


Boy you should write for CNN with all that negativity. Where to begin....
1) yes, equity markets are down 30%+ from their all time highs. Remember the markets are always forward looking so the high unemployment and historic quarterly losses/GDP loss are already being priced in.  Also, quarterly GDP will be low but won’t reach depression levels. 
2) there is a federal bailout coming much like we saw in 2008 with financial institutions. 
3) the Fed has already stated they will provide liquidity in the muni markets. Non issue
4) the 10 year treasury at 1% is one of the best ingredients we have in the water right now. This will allow for the recovery to be more “V” shaped. When the risk free rate is low risk on assets tend to outperform over a long period.

On top of all this... let’s not forget that financial institutions are strong and very well capitalized.

The sky is not falling and this virus (just like every virus in the history of man) is temporary.


----------



## RaymOOOnd

Deploraboo said:


> There aren’t underlying economic issues?  Sorry but the stock market is down 30+ %, UE claims this week or next will dwarf all previous weekly records, GDP estimated to go to Great Depression levels, Hotel, Tourism and Aircraft and Airlines are heading toward BK, municipal debt facing defaults due to lack of revenue, 10 year Treasury had lowest rate ever recorded, I could go on and on here...



These are just secondary effects of panic. The underlying economy going into the whole thing was fine.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

Deploraboo said:


> Why would anyone in their right mind right now purchase a fractional ownership interest in a resort that is indefinitely closed?





CLE2WDW said:


> People were asking to same questions regarding stocks of banks in 2008... now those people returned 10x on their investment by being prudent while others were fearful. Believe it or not Disney will reopen one day and DVC costs will go back to record highs again. You can’t keep the US consumer down for long.


Agreed.  The immediate health threat will subside (maybe not quickly, but it will eventually).  Disney will re-open.   I don't anticipate having to sell and will go back to using my DVC points eventually to vacation at WDW. 

We were already considering adding more points and, if prices drop significantly, that would make adding on more appealing.  Given the odds against Disney never re-opening, I'm willing to "gamble" a few thousand for an add-on contract that I was already considering purchasing at double the price. 

You might consider me not "in my right mind" to be considering this, but I'd wager that I'm not alone in being on the lookout for a bargain in the coming months.


----------



## Brianstl

Lorana said:


> The data does not seem to support that:
> https://www.brookings.edu/policy202...cut-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-pay-for-itself/
> The CBO predicts a deficit of $1.1 Trillion in 2020, with $17.8 trillion in debt held by the public. Who knows what those numbers will look like in a few months time with the bailouts.
> https://www.cbo.gov/topics/budget
> Some more info on deficit and debt drivers, which cites tax cuts:  https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-federal-budget-deficit-3305783
> 
> I am not, by any means, an economist and like most of you, I’m concerned about what the future may hold for our well-being - both health and economic. But there have been numerous factors before the pandemic indicating potential long term problems with how our economy operates and the pandemic is likely to make those come to the forefront of this continues for a long time.


Debt is not revenue took in. Debt is the result of spending exceeding revenue.  While tax revenue has continued to grow after the tax cuts spending has grown at an even faster pace.


----------



## Brian Noble

Brianstl said:


> This is a public health crisis that is hurting the the economy. There aren’t underlying economic issues that have to be dealt with this. Most sections of the economy should recover quickly when the health crisis passes.


Maybe. Some firms are going to fail in the meantime. It will take time for them to be replaced. I don't think this is as simple as a spring going back to where it started after you stretched it. There may also be some knock-on consequences of people tapping into reserves/liquidity (if they have any) or losing housing (if they don't) in the interim.


----------



## Brianstl

Brian Noble said:


> Maybe. Some firms are going to fail in the meantime. It will take time for them to be replaced. I don't think this is as simple as a spring going back to where it started after you stretched it. There may also be some knock-on consequences of people tapping into reserves/liquidity (if they have any) or losing housing (if they don't) in the interim.


I don’t think it will just be back to normal.  I think there will be a recovery process. I just think that process will be be warp speed compared to 2008 where real recovery took years because of low growth numbers.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

sethschroeder said:


> Has anyone thought of selling any of their contracts now and then likely re-buying in 6-12 months?
> 
> Wondering what people's thoughts are. I doubt I would do it but I like thinking through theoretical questions like this.
> 
> What are the costs associated with selling DVC? You have ROFR fee, estoppel fee, and commission (8.5% with the board sponsor it looks like).
> 
> Is anyone planning on this?


I have 2 contacts,  one direct,  and one resale but not restricted to L14.  If I had one restricted to L14, I would probably have it listed already with the intent to buy it back later .

I totally thought of it, but buying back a more restricted contract was the tipping point


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Lorana said:


> I think there are underlying economic problems that will come to light as a result of this, which will have longer impacts on our economy. After all, all the recent tax cuts have drastically undermined our economic security and we don’t have the cash flow coming in.


That is incorrect, tax revenue has been up every year.   Its going to change,  but capital gains tax collected sky rocketed.  Velocity of money is something like 8 times faster is the private sector,  so it gets taxed more often.

The last year over year tax revenue decline was 2008 to 2009.  (No capital gains).  Probably will repeat in 2021


----------



## Deploraboo

If S&P drops 50%, which it will, DVC points will drop concomitantly.  At least.


----------



## Lorana

Brian Noble said:


> Maybe. Some firms are going to fail in the meantime. It will take time for them to be replaced. I don't think this is as simple as a spring going back to where it started after you stretched it. There may also be some knock-on consequences of people tapping into reserves/liquidity (if they have any) or losing housing (if they don't) in the interim.



From the article (https://www.brookings.edu/policy202...cut-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-pay-for-itself/):

*Did the TCJA spur enough growth to maintain federal revenue levels?*
While some TCJA supporters observe that nominal revenues were higher in fiscal year 2018 (which began Oct. 1, 2017) than in FY2017, that comparison does not address the question of the TCJA’s effects. Nominal revenues rise because of inflation and economic growth. Adjusted for inflation, total revenues _fell _from FY2017 to FY2018 (Figure 1). Adjusted for the size of the economy, they fell even more.
*The right question: What would revenues have been without the TCJA?*
The most appropriate test of the revenue impact of the TCJA is to compare actual revenues in FY2018 with predicted revenues in FY2018 assuming Congress had not passed the legislation. In fact, the actual amount of revenue collected in FY2018 was significantly lower than the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) projection of FY2018 revenue made in January 2017—before the tax cuts were signed into law in December 2017. The shortfall was $275 billion, or 7.6% of revenues that were expected before the tax cuts took place. Given that the economy grew, and in the absence of another policy that could have caused a large revenue loss, the data imply that the TCJA substantially reduced revenues (Figure 1)."


----------



## RaymOOOnd

Guys who'd have thought. After decades of financial professionals failing again and again to time the market, a bunch of oracles have popped up on a Disney website (!) who know exactly what's going to happen. And they buy TIMESHARES when the market crashes rather than value stocks!

The Wharton guys ought to take some time to review what's being said here.


----------



## Brian Noble

Lorana said:


> From the article (https://www.brookings.edu/policy202...cut-the-tax-cuts-and-jobs-act-pay-for-itself/):


Did you maybe mean to quote someone else for this, or am I missing how this might (or might not) give insight about how long any downturn might last going forward?


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

RaymOOOnd said:


> Guys who'd have thought. After decades of financial professionals failing again and again to time the market, a bunch of oracles have popped up on a Disney website (!) who know exactly what's going to happen. And they buy TIMESHARES when the market crashes rather than value stocks!
> 
> The Wharton guys ought to take some time to review what's being said here.


I don't claim to know what's going to happen with markets.  But, if prices drop on a product I'm interested in purchasing, why would I not take advantage of the lower price?

Some may consider DVC an "investment."  For many of us, however, DVC is not an investment in our portfolio, but simply a means to pay for desired vacation accomodations at a discounted rate. 

By your logic, one could ask why people would consider even going on vacation, or buying any non-necessities rather than investing every discretionary dollar in the stock market.


----------



## RaymOOOnd

Grumpy by Birth said:


> I don't claim to know what's going to happen with markets.  But, if prices drop on a product I'm interested in purchasing, why would I not take advantage of the lower price?
> 
> Some may consider DVC an "investment."  For many of us, however, DVC is not an investment in our portfolio, but simply a means to pay for desired vacation accomodations at a discounted rate.
> 
> By your logic, one could ask why people would consider even going on vacation, or buying any non-necessities rather than investing every discretionary dollar in the stock market.



We just closed on our third contract so I'm obviously not all about saving or investing all of our money. 

That said, DVC is in my view a liability -- as is anything that costs you money every year to own it, costs you money in the process of using it (i.e. all other expenses of a trip to WDW), and ultimately is guaranteed to depreciate until it is worth nothing. 

Liabilities are best bought at the height of financial security and comfort, and the money best considered (deliberately) lost. During something like a recession, however, by buying DVC you are accepting absolutely enormous opportunity cost in order to obtain that liability. 

If DVC were a product with some value aside from simply being a roundabout way to save on vacation lodging, my comparison wouldn't be fair. But as it has no other real value, I feel comfortable saying it makes NO sense not to pursue an option, with any given stash of money, which will bring the greater financial benefit. Let's not forget that Disney hotels can be booked with cash, and more conveniently at that.


----------



## Lorana

Brian Noble said:


> Did you maybe mean to quote someone else for this, or am I missing how this might (or might not) give insight about how long any downturn might last going forward?



I did. I’m not sure how it quoted the wrong post. Sorry about that. I was responded to the comment that revenues were higher to point to the data in the article that said once you adjusted for inflation, revenues fell.


----------



## McCrae

I think It’s almost certain that prices will fall, but it’s also likely that supply with drop as well. Only forced sellers will be selling. Could be a great time to pick up a bargain.


----------



## Deploraboo

At a certain price point, everyone becomes a forced seller.  See S&P.  It’s not like folks woke up one day and said DIS or NFLX or AAPL are horrible companies.  They need cash to meet their obligations,  No one is immune.


----------



## sky2823

Sorry if it has been asked.  Does Disney have the right to pause all resales?  They should.  If they don’t and this continues the market will be devastated.


----------



## Matty B13

sky2823 said:


> Sorry if it has been asked.  Does Disney have the right to pause all resales?  They should.  If they don’t and this continues the market will be devastated.


How could they? It's not their deed, its the owners.


----------



## Brianstl

Matty B13 said:


> How could they? It's not their deed, its the owners.


I think people forget that a DVC owner is a property owner and not a club member.  The timeshare laws of the state apply to resales and not Disney’s whims.


----------



## Sandisw

sky2823 said:


> Sorry if it has been asked.  Does Disney have the right to pause all resales?  They should.  If they don’t and this continues the market will be devastated.



Only right Disney has is to step in and become the buyer.  Other than that, an owner can sell the contract for whatever they want to accept.


----------



## FireflyTrance

I expect prices to fall significantly, easily 25-50% in the coming months. If my husband or I had lost our jobs, DVC would be one of the first things we would consider selling. Yes we have savings, but I would probably STILL try to sell it if I saw us going through our savings. As it is we have not lost our jobs, but I want to be conservative in our spending and not make any luxury purchases right now.


----------



## bookwormde

quick tracking update

Then number of new contracts for sale has been very low over the last 2 days (there may be some issues with deciding on a price point)

BVW has a limited number of 200 to 300 pt contracts averaging $109


----------



## Deploraboo

Whatever prices were back in late 2016/early 2017, that’s where they should be right now.  See S&P.


----------



## ELMC

Deploraboo said:


> Whatever prices were back in late 2016/early 2017, that’s where they should be right now.  See S&P.


I don't think the correlation is that strong.  I think if the economy goes south, regardless of by what percentage, that will impact the supply/demand forces of the DVC market.  Said another way, a tough economy will lead to more people being forced to sell and likely fewer people looking to buy.  It doesn't matter what the % drop in the DOW or S&P 500 happens to be.  From that point on, the prices will do what they do as a function of supply and demand (adding in the lack of fear of ROFR that typically adds a few dollars to every contract).


----------



## Brian Noble

Agreed. I heard a pretty compelling argument on a podcast yesterday that luxury items are likely to take a bigger hit than "average", while staples will take a lower hit. DVC is clearly in the former camp...at least for most of us!


----------



## CLE2WDW

Deploraboo said:


> Whatever prices were back in late 2016/early 2017, that’s where they should be right now.  See S&P.


Not really... 2016-17 didn’t include a potential liquidity crisis. The key to any market is that a buyer and seller need to align and right now the buying market might be stifled.  If I was one of these resale companies I would make that abundantly clear to sellers right now. If an offer comes in at 20-30% below asking consider ‘what’s my need for liquidity right now?’  If it’s dire you may be forced to accept the offer. If you can stomach the next 12-18 months of paying dues and wait to sell it when the DVC market has rebounded then do that. This is where the resale market really needs to earn their 8.5% commission.


----------



## DVC Doctor

Hard to say....it is so early in the virus response and in a few months will tell how things go. 

It could be a minor drop (few dollars) or a major drop, but if this drags on a long time and the economy suffers, then buying a timeshare will be the last thing people will want to buy, sellers will flood the market, and prices will go low.

I can only state that VB and HHI will be the hardest hit.


----------



## minthorne

i'd love some Poly points for $70pp


----------



## CLE2WDW

minthorne said:


> i'd love some Poly points for $70pp


I mean it never hurts to put in an aggressive offer....


----------



## Matty B13

minthorne said:


> i'd love some Poly points for $70pp


I think it might reach about $100/pp, because a lot of people who bought just a few years ago with a loan might not be able to cover the payments, and there are a lot of contracts out there right now already.


----------



## CLE2WDW

Matty B13 said:


> I think it might reach about $100/pp, because a lot of people who bought just a few years ago with a loan might not be able to cover the payments, and there are a lot of contracts out there right now already.


That’s an excellent point. It’s not like there’s such a thing as a “short sale” when selling a DVC contract. 
That being said I am curious to see what POLY and BLT contracts go for over the next few months...


----------



## DougEMG

FireflyTrance said:


> I expect prices to fall significantly, easily 25-50% in the coming months. If my husband or I had lost our jobs, DVC would be one of the first things we would consider selling. Yes we have savings, but I would probably STILL try to sell it if I saw us going through our savings. As it is we have not lost our jobs, but I want to be conservative in our spending and not make any luxury purchases right now.



I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months.  I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.


----------



## wallawallakids

DH and I were really wanting to buy into the new DL DVC at the DLH when it opened.  I think that will be put on pause now.  We will be watching GCV like a hawk, but I am not overly optimistic it will drop that much.  I do think the WDW properties as well as Aulani/ HH/ and VB will drop a lot more.


----------



## Brianstl

ELMC said:


> I don't think the correlation is that strong.  I think if the economy goes south, regardless of by what percentage, that will impact the supply/demand forces of the DVC market.  Said another way, a tough economy will lead to more people being forced to sell and likely fewer people looking to buy.  It doesn't matter what the % drop in the DOW or S&P 500 happens to be.  From that point on, the prices will do what they do as a function of supply and demand (adding in the lack of fear of ROFR that typically adds a few dollars to every contract).





DougEMG said:


> I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months.  I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.


I don't think a 40-50% drop is unrealistic.  When the job numbers and GDP numbers come out, many of those who haven't felt the financial bite already will start to freak out.


----------



## Brianstl

wallawallakids said:


> DH and I were really wanting to buy into the new DL DVC at the DLH when it opened.  I think that will be put on pause now.  We will be watching GCV like a hawk, but I am not overly optimistic it will drop that much.  I do think the WDW properties as well as Aulani/ HH/ and VB will drop a lot more.


GCV has such limited supply, that it should weather this much better than other resorts.


----------



## RanDIZ

Matty B13 said:


> I think it might reach about $100/pp, because a lot of people who bought just a few years ago with a loan might not be able to cover the payments, and there are a lot of contracts out there right now already.



I’d love to scoop a POLY 100pt contract up for $100/pt. But the savings isn’t that much when spread out. The avg POLY for past few months has been $148/pt. So if the avg contract is held for 10yrs, the savings is $480/yr or $40/mth over 10yrs. I would pay $148 now just because I know I’ll be saving regardless when compared to cash prices. I’m just holding off now due to uncertainty and the potential that I need that cash for emergencies.


----------



## Matty B13

RanDIZ said:


> I’d love to scoop a POLY 100pt contract up for $100/pt. But the savings isn’t that much when spread out. The avg POLY for past few months has been $148/pt. So if the avg contract is held for 10yrs, the savings is $480/yr or $40/mth over 10yrs. I would pay $148 now just because I know I’ll be saving regardless when compared to cash prices. I’m just holding off now due to uncertainty and the potential that I need that cash for emergencies.


I think Poly contracts were heading down already before this mess, and I think it might actually accelerate moving forward.


----------



## thanxfornoticin

Brianstl said:


> GCV has such limited supply, that it should weather this much better than other resorts.



I would agree with that.  Beautiful resort, limited capacity, popular location.

It will also be interesting to see if (when?) Disney puts a hold on planned construction for new DVC locations, like the Disneyland and Reflections at WDW.  That has to be coming if the current situation lasts much longer.


----------



## rg35

Too soon to tell, and it depends on how long the economy is basically "on pause".

While service industry workers like waiters, hotel employees, etc., have lost their jobs, a lot of other sectors haven't been hit yet. Once things catch up and there is no revenue coming in and businesses run into cash flow problems, we're going to see a lot of people out of work. 

I imagine people who are financing are going to need to dump their DVC ownership, you'll have another group dumping once MFs come due at the end of the year, and so forth. 

The IMF says right now this recession could be worse than 2009. A lot of it depends on Americans taking quarantining and social separation seriously. Right now, a lot of people aren't. But the more lax we are now, the longer this is going to go on. Give up a few weekends at the park now so that we don't have to extend this thing for 4 or 6 months.


----------



## FireflyTrance

I agree that I doubt we will see a 50% drop at GCV. If I saw a 25-30% drop there I would consider buying more myself.


----------



## wishicouldgomoreofte

poofyo101 said:


> One of the big brokers who does instant sale has lowered their prices really really low on their instant offers now.


What is "instant sale"?  How is that possible?  It still has to go through ROFR and title search and all the legal steps doesn't it?


----------



## CarolMN

wishicouldgomoreofte said:


> What is "instant sale"?  How is that possible?  It still has to go through ROFR and title search and all the legal steps doesn't it?


The listing has a "Buy Now"  button with a set price that will result in immediate acceptance.  Yes, the contract still goes through all the usual steps.  Disney doesn't seem to be buying anything back right now, so apparently, some think there are some good deals to be had.


----------



## wishicouldgomoreofte

MICKIMINI said:


> ROFR is/has always been a threat.  DVC _will_ step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners.  If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners.  I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.
> 
> There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value.  I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract.  My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not.  I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not.  Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!


Will you share your calculator?


----------



## ELMC

DougEMG said:


> I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months.  I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.


I'm not so sure I agree with you, Doug.  One could argue that the prices were crazy inflated already before any of this happened.  I think the market was due to correct on its own.  Now, with the twin crises we are facing, I would not be surprised to see a 50% reduction.


----------



## DougEMG

ELMC said:


> I'm not so sure I agree with you, Doug.  One could argue that the prices were crazy inflated already before any of this happened.  I think the market was due to correct on its own.  Now, with the twin crises we are facing, I would not be surprised to see a 50% reduction.



So you think BWV will be $50 and BLT at $60? I would be shocked if that happened. The shut down with the virus is going to have to last 4-6 months or more for something like that to happen. I think this will be more like a V rcovery.

Besides if BLT drops below $100, there are going to be quiet a few people bidding on those contracts


----------



## Sandisw

DougEMG said:


> So you think BWV will be $50 and BLT at $60? I would be shocked if that happened. The shut down with the virus is going to have to last 4-6 months or more for something like that to happen. I think this will be more like a V rcovery.
> 
> Besides if BLT drops below $100, there are going to be quiet a few people bidding on those contracts



If BLT gets that low, I will probably just buy and not worry about selling My BWV.

I can say I was told today that sales have slowed a bit but not to any degree that its of concern.


----------



## ELMC

DougEMG said:


> So you think BWV will be $50 and BLT at $60? I would be shocked if that happened. The shut down with the virus is going to have to last 4-6 months or more for something like that to happen. I think this will be more like a V rcovery.
> 
> Besides if BLT drops below $100, there are going to be quiet a few people bidding on those contracts


You may very well be right.  To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.  

So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months.  I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term.  I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess.  Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.

All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation.  I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong.  But something tells me I won't have to.


----------



## zavandor

ELMC said:


> You may very well be right.  To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.
> 
> So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months.  I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term.  I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess.  Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.
> 
> All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation.  I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong.  But something tells me I won't have to.


I hope you're wrong, but I think you're right.


----------



## ELMC

zavandor said:


> I hope you're wrong, but I think you're right.


Me too.  And me too.


----------



## Brianstl

ELMC said:


> You may very well be right.  To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.
> 
> So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months.  I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term.  I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess.  Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.
> 
> All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation.  I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong.  But something tells me I won't have to.


What leads you to think that this will have a longer term impact on growth than the combined impact of the Spanish Flu and WW1 did?


----------



## poofyo101

CarolMN said:


> The listing has a "Buy Now"  button with a set price that will result in immediate acceptance.  Yes, the contract still goes through all the usual steps.  Disney doesn't seem to be buying anything back right now, so apparently, some think there are some good deals to be had.


Disney is still buying back right now.


----------



## mamaofsix

DougEMG said:


> I think prices will drop between 10-20% in the coming months.  I doubt anything close to 50% will happen.


Considering the prices have already dropped 10% in just the past week, unfortunately I think we are headed towards 50% territory.  But it's anybody's guess...


----------



## MICKIMINI

wishicouldgomoreofte said:


> Will you share your calculator?


I will if you promise not to laugh!  No spreadsheets here as I work with pen and paper.  I scribbled this down when we were actively buying late 2018 - closing 2019.  We did not buy this contract, but we did buy two others (we sold two simultaneously) and this is our cheat sheet and we've put this into use.  Note:  it involves renting, which is now a shaky plan, however _a transfer _could be used in its place.  As you see, we were able to cut our initial cost by about 26%.  

BRV UY Dec 220 Points  $100 PP     $22,000 Cost + $1610 2019 MF  + $660 Close = $$24,270
2018 Points 337 ($0-negotiated)
2019 Points 220 $1610

Rented 557 Points @ $14.50 = $8077     NET PAID $16,193 OR $73.60 PP

I hope this is helpful to you as it can be recalculated with any potential contract.  Good luck!


----------



## Deploraboo

Put it this way, anyone posting sales during this lockdown might as well state “will take anything” And honestly, that would be smart.  First movers win.


----------



## Deploraboo

Btw, green chutes today is a SnapBack Imho.  Damage to S&P has already been done.  Of course, this is an unprecedented market drop, durationwise, so analysis may be out the window, but always informative.


----------



## SL6827

I think we could see OKW and SSR at the 50% off.


----------



## Drewferin

Deploraboo said:


> Btw, green chutes today is a SnapBack Imho.  Damage to S&P has already been done.  Of course, this is an unprecedented market drop, durationwise, so analysis may be out the window, but always informative.


We arent even at a point to see daylight at the end of this panoramic. Both myself and my wife work in healthcare and hear and see what's happening on a daily basis. We are in for some REAL issues in the next 2-3 weeks. This isnt meant to scare people but the market hasnt bottomed yet. These headlines sound good at face value about a 2T bill being passed but mean while people are in the ICU in record numbers. Wait for Thursdays unemployment numbers to come out and see how the market reacts to those numbers. DVC prices will start to drop as family's income is reduced or eliminated due to being laid off.


----------



## wallawallakids

Drewferin said:


> We arent even at a point to see daylight at the end of this panoramic. Both myself and my wife work in healthcare and hear and see what's happening on a daily basis. We are in for some REAL issues in the next 2-3 weeks. This isnt meant to scare people but the market hasnt bottomed yet. These headlines sound good at face value about a 2T bill being passed but mean while people are in the ICU in record numbers. Wait for Thursdays unemployment numbers to come out and see how the market reacts to those numbers. DVC prices will start to drop as family's income is reduced or eliminated due to being laid off.


Thank you for your and your wife’s service. This is a tough time to be in heath care. I’m thankful for people like you out there advocating and caring for the sick. Also, I agree 100% with the points you just made about unemployment numbers etc.


----------



## Brianstl

Drewferin said:


> We arent even at a point to see daylight at the end of this panoramic. Both myself and my wife work in healthcare and hear and see what's happening on a daily basis. We are in for some REAL issues in the next 2-3 weeks. This isnt meant to scare people but the market hasnt bottomed yet. These headlines sound good at face value about a 2T bill being passed but mean while people are in the ICU in record numbers. Wait for Thursdays unemployment numbers to come out and see how the market reacts to those numbers. DVC prices will start to drop as family's income is reduced or eliminated due to being laid off.


The market has already factored in a worse case unemployment number.


----------



## RanDIZ

It’s always good to dollar cost average on the way down. Either way you look at it, buying DVC at virtually any price is a win and savings over paying cash to stay deluxe. Bottom line. And as far a markets go, the Great Recession saw 50% plus drop (from Oct 2007 highs to March 2008). We’re only down around 30% now. Take Corona out of the picture and market was due to correct somewhere in 10-20% range. Now add the disaster of Corona and we probably have another 20-30% to go from here. So buckle up!


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Brianstl said:


> The market has already factored in a worse case unemployment number.


Well, at least what they project to be a worst case (and hopefully its nowhere near that)
Technically, high unemployment has not been reported yet, nor have bad earnings.  The market has reacted to it already however


----------



## Deploraboo

Almost feel if it’s under a million market may bounce more.  But it will be a slow bleed while the Country and World remains under house arrest.


----------



## bigredbeta

Brianstl said:


> Here is the list of average resale prices for  https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.
> 
> View attachment 482372


late to this thread, where did you get that chart? Can't seem to find it on the DVC Resale Market site


----------



## Brianstl

bigredbeta said:


> late to this thread, where did you get that chart? Can't seem to find it on the DVC Resale Market site


It is on their blog page.  Here is the link https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2020/


----------



## sky2823

I think our country will be back on track by May.  

My biggest fear coming out of all this, stay with me, is that Disney’s weakening stock price causes them to get acquired by Apple, Amazon or Google.  This is being speculated about already with Apple.  The next logical step would be for that company to spin off the parks and hospitality to its own entity...   Apple doesn’t want to own cruise ships and hotels it wants “content.   Breaking up Disney would have a dramatic impact on “culture” and feel of the parks In the future.


----------



## ELMC

Brianstl said:


> What leads you to think that this will have a longer term impact on growth than the combined impact of the Spanish Flu and WW1 did?


I don't.  I already thought we were heading into a huge crash and then ten years of stagnation in the markets without any of this.  What we're going through now just accelerated and likely accentuated the process.  But that is probably a conversation for a different thread on a different forum.   

The point is that we've seen what a struggling economy does to DVC prices.  Now we are likely to see it again, with the added variable that a lot of these contracts are quickly approaching expiration.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

sky2823 said:


> I think our country will be back on track by May.
> 
> My biggest fear coming out of all this, stay with me, is that Disney’s weakening stock price causes them to get acquired by Apple, Amazon or Google.  This is being speculated about already with Apple.  The next logical step would be for that company to spin off the parks and hospitality to its own entity...   Apple doesn’t want to own cruise ships and hotels it wants “content.   Breaking up Disney would have a dramatic impact on “culture” and feel of the parks In the future.


I was actually thinking June but i have the same fear of Disney being acquired by Apple. I didn’t even think about google or amazon but they could do it too.


----------



## rkstocke5609

ELMC said:


> I don't.  I already thought we were heading into a huge crash and then ten years of stagnation in the markets without any of this.  What we're going through now just accelerated and likely accentuated the process.  But that is probably a conversation for a different thread on a different forum.
> 
> The point is that we've seen what a struggling economy does to DVC prices.  Now we are likely to see it again, with the added variable that a lot of these contracts are quickly approaching expiration.


Quickly approaching  expiration?  The average person is part of the full time work force for about 50 years (18-68).  So, to me 20 years is 40% of one’s work life.  That’s still a long time to me....

But, compared to newer contracts I guess it isn’t.  Still, I wonder what the average length of DVC ownership actually is....


----------



## bookwormde

3/24 data

new listing were back up to somewhat above average number

Asking averages

AKV continues at 108

CCV is about 152 with the majority below 100 pts

OKW is at 100

Poly is at 138 but has a wide variation

SSR is 106


Where it appears that sale pending number represent actual sale price OKW is in the mid 90s with low of 82, SSR is below 100 and poly is falling into the 130s


----------



## Deploraboo

This is a fairly illiquid market so true price discovery is difficult.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

Does anyone have historical resale prices going back to 2010 or earlier? Farthest back in can find is 2012. I am trying to see how much prices dropped versus were already low priced because DVC was way cheaper before 2014 or so.


----------



## MICKIMINI

We paid $62 for OKW in 1996.  Disney used to pay closing costs and even paid for our resort stay in 1996.  In 2000 we bought Wilderness (now BRV) for around $70.   I think we paid around $80 for SSR in 2008.  This is all from memory so don't take it to the bank.


----------



## sky2823

Sorry I haven’t been paying attention.

Why does poly seem to be going lower on resale the the rest of the class?


----------



## bookwormde

sky2823 said:


> Sorry I haven’t been paying attention.
> 
> Why does poly seem to be going lower on resale the the rest of the class?


resales for Poly were already soft so they are likely the proverbial canary in the coal mine


----------



## MICKIMINI

Could Poly decrease be related to demographics?  I can't remember when sales opened up, but if the average age of a DVC purchase is say 40 yr old (I'm sure someone has the age) and it is x number of years past the bulk of the sales - buyers are now ? years old?  Just a guess that quite a few of those folks may have big mortgages, kids in college, etc. and have been listing their contracts.   Total speculation on my part...


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

MICKIMINI said:


> Could Poly decrease be related to demographics?  I can't remember when sales opened up, but if the average age of a DVC purchase is say 40 yr old (I'm sure someone has the age) and it is x number of years past the bulk of the sales - buyers are now ? years old?  Just a guess that quite a few of those folks may have big mortgages, kids in college, etc. and have been listing their contracts.   Total speculation on my part...


I do think that could matter. I wonder what the typical age is. If it is 40 they could have teens or their kids could be 5 or younger. Then as they get older circumstances change. Additionally I think as the family gets older they much prefer having a 1 bedroom or larger room. A studio may work for people with toddlers, but by the time they are preteens and teenagers they want more space. We rented at the poly and found it incredible. Except when we thought long and hard about purchasing realized we really wanted the extra space of a 1 bedroom. So we bought at BLT. I also wonder if a lot of people buy in thinking a cheap studio will be all they ever need. Then begin to realize they want to stay in 1 bedrooms. Other resorts you can just buy more points. Poly doesn't have that option.


----------



## striker1064

sky2823 said:


> Sorry I haven’t been paying attention.
> 
> Why does poly seem to be going lower on resale the the rest of the class?



Probably a few reasons for this. Poly is all studios plus a few bungalows, so there are likely at least some buyers who thought they would be fine with only a large studio, only to find they prefer a 1 bedroom or 2 bedroom (and the bungalows are far too point-expensive to be worth it on a regular basis). Further, Disney almost never exercises ROFR on a resort that is either in active sales or within a few years of it selling out. I am not aware of a single Poly contract that has had ROFR exercised (although that doesn't mean it hasn't happened). The large supply of points available plus no ROFR has caused resale prices to drop a bit. Who knows where Poly will settle, or (even more curiously) what Disney's price floor might be before they start buying it back. Although Disney doesn't use ROFR to maintain a price floor, it definitely has an effect.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

MICKIMINI said:


> Could Poly decrease be related to demographics?  I can't remember when sales opened up, but if the average age of a DVC purchase is say 40 yr old (I'm sure someone has the age) and it is x number of years past the bulk of the sales - buyers are now ? years old?  Just a guess that quite a few of those folks may have big mortgages, kids in college, etc. and have been listing their contracts.   Total speculation on my part...


If I remember correctly Poly sales started in 2015. 
I know VGF started in spring of 2013 and took about 2.5 years to sell out.

I think its also could have to do with the sheer number of contracts crossed with their being only one room type


----------



## Matty B13

bookwormde said:


> resales for Poly were already soft so they are likely the proverbial canary in the coal mine


There are probably a lot of first time buyers who fell in love with the Poly, and financed a DVC purchase and are now having a hard time coming up with the payments.  I think this happens at a lot of resort in the first few years after they sell out.  You can kinda tell if the contract is loaded or not, because the owner couldn't afford to make that second or third trip after they first purchased.  I think I picked up 2 loaded contract because of this in 2016.


----------



## wallawallakids

I think you hit the nail on the head. A lot of families are priced out by Poly. I would love to stay there but the shear number of points needed for a bungalow means it would never happen. Lots of people do love studios but once you add children- or grandchildren to the mix, a 1 or 2 bedroom with a washer and dryer is worth it’s weight in gold. You can’t beat it and the full kitchen/ extra bath. The fact the only other option is an expensive bungalow means fewer buyers fit the demographic.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Matty B13 said:


> There are probably a lot of first time buyers who fell in love with the Poly, and financed a DVC purchase and are now having a hard time coming up with the payments.  I think this happens at a lot of resort in the first few years after they sell out.  You can kinda tell if the contract is loaded or not, because the owner couldn't afford to make that second or third trip after they first purchased.  I think I picked up 2 loaded contract because of this in 2016.


Poly was also a totally unique animal in DVC - it was the first resort in which the actual resort that had always been there was made part of DVC, and was old enough to really hit people nostalgically.
Yes, they did it with Jambo House, but the people who were older, with enough $ to buy were too old to have gone there as children and have that nostalgia for it.  BLT is at the contemporary, but it is not THE Contemporary.

Poly hit the sweet spot perfectly.  Which further leads to your point...it got a lot of nostalgic buys


----------



## Matty B13

TraderSamWDW said:


> Poly hit the sweet spot perfectly.  Which further leads to your point...it got a lot of nostalgic buys


Didn't stay as a kid back in the 80's, but in 2015 we stayed at Poly for a huge family trip and fell in love with the resort, would have bought in if it even had a 1 bedroom option, but since we are a family of 5 and wanted separate rooms for the kids it wasn't in the cards for us.  But we always walk over from VGF to do at least 1 meal there and walk through the lobby.

Wish we could have stayed there back in the 80's, sounds like the place was a lot more serene with a lot more landscaping.


----------



## RaymOOOnd

Sorry to disappoint some people on here but the market may be starting to recover


----------



## Deploraboo

33 minutes later, maybe not.


----------



## mlayton14

Matty B13 said:


> Wish we could have stayed there back in the 80's, sounds like the place was a lot more serene with a lot more landscaping.



80s? Try 2010 or so when they had much more landscaping , less wide concrete walkways , a nice beach area with unobstructed views of the lagoon, and an mini oasis in the lobby ... god I miss that place


----------



## poofyo101

Deploraboo said:


> 33 minutes later, maybe not.


haha


----------



## RanDIZ

RaymOOOnd said:


> Sorry to disappoint some people on here but the market may be starting to recover



Don’t let 2 up days fool you. Highs of Oct 2007 to March 2008 saw a 54% drop. We haven’t even come close to that yet and are in far worse shape then that time period. Earnings season and unemployment will be horrible! We will test the lows again and prob even drop further.


----------



## Deploraboo

2475 on S&P was a precise Fibonacci resistance point.  Possible we go back to 2700 area but heading back to retest lows is likely too, if not mid 1700s.  From 2100 downward would certainly look to add.


----------



## bookwormde

3/25 update

 less new contracts than usual

no new notable data


----------



## TraderSamWDW

mlayton14 said:


> 80s? Try 2010 or so when they had much more landscaping , less wide concrete walkways , a nice beach area with unobstructed views of the lagoon, and an mini oasis in the lobby ... god I miss that place


The removal of the waterfall just killed it


----------



## RaymOOOnd

well if people want to stay panicky for months it helps younger investors who can stick to putting some of their paycheck in every 2 weeks without losing their cool and selling.

But I think the panic needs to die down soon. The novelty of things simply wears off and I think at this point the national response is beginning to encourage people (Those who don't hate the president too much to admit it)


----------



## Brian Noble

Brian Noble said:


> Goldman Sachs thinks [new unemployment] could top 2,000,000 in the week ending next Thursday. It took more than three months for that to happen during the Great Recession.


Looks like Goldman was wrong. The reported number?

3.28 million.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-run-of-american-job-growth-has-ended-11585215000
That's almost the first _five months_ of job losses in the Great Recession.


----------



## Brianstl

Brian Noble said:


> Looks like Goldman was wrong. The reported number?
> 
> 3.28 million.
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-long-run-of-american-job-growth-has-ended-11585215000
> That's almost the first _five months_ of job losses in the Great Recession.


I thought I read reports this week that many thought the number was going to be closer to 4 million.  I think it “only” coming close to 3.3 is one of the reasons for the market pop.


----------



## snappy

An outlier number that was floating around of 7 million was mentioned  this morning on CNBC.


----------



## E2ME2

What's the lowest & highest resale price you have seen for the resort you are interested in, in the last week?  
I have searched about 8 different sites, and found SSR at a Low of $90/300Pts and a High of $136/65Pts.  
Doesn't look like the Low has dropped significantly yet ??
What are others observing? 
And is there a place to find ALL DVC listings for comparison?
ET


----------



## poofyo101

E2ME2 said:


> What's the lowest & highest resale price you have seen for the resort you are interested in, in the last week?
> I have searched about 8 different sites, and found SSR at a Low of $90/300Pts and a High of $136/65Pts.
> Doesn't look like the Low has dropped significantly yet ??
> What are others observing?
> And is there a place to find ALL DVC listings for comparison?
> ET


Nothing has changed yet as disney is still ROFR contracts.


----------



## Brianstl

poofyo101 said:


> Nothing has changed yet as disney is still ROFR contracts.


what was the last contract they exercised ROFR on?


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

poofyo101 said:


> Nothing has changed yet as disney is still ROFR contracts.


Not to mention that people have been out of work for 2 weeks max.  Prices won't start to move until inventory is greater than demand which takes time.

I can't remember where I saw a chart but IIRC resale prices for DVC during the recession did not bottom until ~2012.  Someone please correct me if I'm wrong about that.


----------



## poofyo101

Brianstl said:


> what was the last contract they exercised ROFR on?


I had an AKV ROFR'd last week at 103 with the dues included.


----------



## SL6827

Ya, I don't think we will see a big influx of contracts at reduced prices this week, but give it 4-5 more weeks and we might.


----------



## bookwormde

3/26 was below and 3/27 was near average new  listings

AKV has dropped to 107

OKW pending sales are consistently below 100

BLT pending sales are mostly in the 130s


----------



## Spork24

I think we are 3-6 months from seeing the deals show up.  I don’t expect a fire sale or anything like that but I do expect 20-25% drop in prices across the board by the end of the year.


----------



## sky2823

personally, I think this pandemic will die down by summer and the aftermath we will be dealing with is the 3 months of the economy shuttting down.  

If Disney views this as a short term hiccup, they will fortify the rofr for that time, take the hit.  We might see a 10% drop.

If they determine attendance won’t recover for a year or two,then we are talking 30 to 40% because Disney  will be in survival mode and needing cash and not doing much on the rofr


----------



## glamdring269

Yeah sky I think you hit the nail on the head. The virus might die down but the economic impact is likely to last much longer. And if the virus rebounds in the fall... yikes.


----------



## sethschroeder

glamdring269 said:


> Yeah sky I think you hit the nail on the head. The virus might die down but the economic impact is likely to last much longer. And if the virus rebounds in the fall... yikes.



The virus will rebound 45-60 days post removal of shelter in place. How much it rebounds is based on how much they reopen. 

I am just glad while I live in a tourist area it's summer houses and a few resorts it's not a large destination like Orlando, NYC, or San Fran.


----------



## ELMC

Spork24 said:


> I think we are 3-6 months from seeing the deals show up.  I don’t expect a fire sale or anything like that but I do expect 20-25% drop in prices across the board by the end of the year.


I would agree.  The DVC resale market reacts much slower than say, the stock market, where prices seem to drop overnight.  The prices DVC resales are selling for today are etched into the minds of buyers as the "normal" price.  Now, maybe given the economic situation buyers will ask for a small discount in their offers, but these downward ticks will be small and incremental.  The real shift will start to happen when people are forced to sell and the market becomes flooded with contracts.  Combine that with a smaller group of potential buyers and basic laws of supply and demand will take effect.  Accelerating this process will be those who really really need to sell, and will aggressively price their contract in order to get a fast sale.  This price will be the new benchmark that everyone is trying to beat, which will force prices down even further.  Given that the economic impact of our situation is likely to last well into 2021, I do think that there will be enough time to let this scenario play out.


----------



## Deploraboo

For anyone thinking Disney will be exercising ROFRs here, please tell me from what cash flow source,  debt drawdowns?  They’re probably using that to service existing debt.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Deploraboo said:


> For anyone thinking Disney will be exercising ROFRs here, please tell me from what cash flow source,  debt drawdowns?  They’re probably using that to service existing debt.


The may use it some if needed to stop DRR going for 50 a point but otherwise,  you are spot on, they didn't just issue all those bonds to fund ROFR.  They have a lot of debt service. And with no major revenue stream, they are robbing Peter to pay Paul for the moment. 
The will also exercise ROFR if they need to in order to make a pending sale, for a quick (albeit small) instant profit. 
But I sure can't see them using cash to build a point inventory of any sorts


----------



## Sandisw

TraderSamWDW said:


> The may use it some if needed to stop DRR going for 50 a point but otherwise,  you are spot on, they didn't just issue all those bonds to fund ROFR.  They have a lot of debt service. And with no major revenue stream, they are robbing Peter to pay Paul for the moment.
> The will also exercise ROFR if they need to in order to make a pending sale, for a quick (albeit small) instant profit.
> But I sure can't see them using cash to build a point inventory of any sorts



They may also be hoping that resale offers will slow down and have breathing room so they won’t have to. I can tell you as a seller it has...just based on my experience selling in October vs now.

But yeah, I think it will be hard fot them to prevent great deals from happening


----------



## Matty B13

Sandisw said:


> They may also be hoping that resale offers will slow down and have breathing room so they won’t have to. I can tell you as a seller it has...just based on my experience selling in October vs now.
> 
> But yeah, I think it will be hard fot them to prevent great deals from happening


I track Feb UY VGF points, and there are a lot of small contracts out there right now that have been up for awhile.

This was unheard of just a few months ago.


----------



## poofyo101

Matty B13 said:


> I track Feb UY VGF points, and there are a lot of small contracts out there right now that have been up for awhile.
> 
> This was unheard of just a few months ago.


I have been tracking almost everything.

The good deal contracts have not been pending/selling as fast as they would have.

Prices haven't really dipped yet but it seems the demand is gone...for now.


----------



## Deploraboo

We’re effectively two weeks into this.  Anyone issuing “non negotiable” Sale offers right now are being penny wise and pound foolish, imho.  This is not a terribly liquid market right now.

to add:  generally unsecured bonds and revolving credit facilities can only be used for refinancing and general working capital needs.  Query as to whether exercising ROFRs qualify.  Doubtful although I do suspect (without specific knowledge) that they have a reserve fund for ROFRs but wouldn’t suspect them replenishing it or, frankly, materially tapping it, during this period,  All speculation, but were I a treasury cash manager at DIS, this is what I’d do.


----------



## Sandisw

Matty B13 said:


> I track Feb UY VGF points, and there are a lot of small contracts out there right now that have been up for awhile.
> 
> This was unheard of just a few months ago.



Yup.  My contract would have gone within a day at its price a few months ago,   Now it’s been a week since my first buyer backed out,


----------



## Yankee626

All 2042 contracts are overpriced on the resale market already.  How can  BCV resale contracts be selling for only $20 a point less than Poli contracts when they have 23 fewer years left.  I see the demand dropping and the amount of Sellers rising quickly over the next 3 months. Especially if DW remains closed.  By October I see the 2042 contracts to be selling between 60 and 80 a point.  VB and HH may drop to 20-30 a point due to their ridiculous high Dues . People just wont be able to afford this luxury for a while.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Seeing a few AKV listings at $100/point now.  Not a big move but it looks to be starting to trend downward.



Yankee626 said:


> All 2042 contracts are overpriced on the resale market already.  How can  BCV resale contracts be selling for only $20 a point less than Poli contracts when they have 23 fewer years left.  I see the demand dropping and the amount of Sellers rising quickly over the next 3 months. Especially if DW remains closed.  By October I see the 2042 contracts to be selling between 60 and 80 a point.  VB and HH may drop to 20-30 a point due to their ridiculous high Dues . People just wont be able to afford this luxury for a while.


2042 still sounds like it's very far away.  I agree with the logic (and would not be looking at 2042 contracts personally), it just hasn't impacted prices significantly yet and I will be surprised if Covid19 is when it starts.

Poly only has studios or bungalows so it's generally a less desirable contract.  I would compare against Bay Lake Tower or Copper Creek instead as it's more apples to apples.


----------



## Yankee626

Why would Poly be less desirable because it only has Studios or Bungalows ?  You can use your points at any resort.  One and two bedroom suites are usually easy to book at any resort at the 7 month window.  If anything I would think Poly would be more desirable because it has more Studios which is  what most Members are looking for. Plus poly has a very low Dues cost.


----------



## GinnyBear's_mom

Yankee626 said:


> Why would Poly be less desirable because it only has Studios or Bungalows ?  You can use your points at any resort.  One and two bedroom suites are usually easy to book at any resort at the 7 month window.  If anything I would think Poly would be more desirable because it has more Studios which is  what most Members are looking for. Plus poly has a very low Dues cost.



Poly is less desireable due to the fact you have bungalows (a ridiculously high point value) and studios. If your family situation changes, more kids, kids get older, etc and you own at Poly you are forced into waiting until the 7 month mark to find the 1 and 2 bedroom leftovers at other resorts, that can be stressful. Some of the many benefits of DVC are full kitchens, in-room washer and dryers, multiple full bathrooms- things you can't get in a studio. During the months I travel (a high season and a supposed low one) it is a challenge to find rooms of any size available at the 7 month mark for my full stay. Many see that they paid "deluxe" dvc pricing for a Poly contract and don't want to get stuck staying at a dvc resort with fewer amenties, especially when considering transportation.

Prior to the closing it seemed like many owners was renting out unused points that may have previously expired or exchanged into RCI.  Now that the 'nonrefundable' downside of DVC rentals has been exposed I think they rental market may cool and cause DVC availability to open back up again, possibly to where it was 5 years or so again before the rental market exploded. Back then I could always book my home resort at the 11 month mark (now not always guaranteed) and there were options other than okw or ss at the 7 month mark.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

GinnyBear's_mom said:


> Poly is less desireable due to the fact you have bungalows (a ridiculously high point value) and studios. If your family situation changes, more kids, kids get older, etc and you own at Poly you are forced into waiting until the 7 month mark to find the 1 and 2 bedroom leftovers at other resorts, that can be stressful. Some of the many benefits of DVC are full kitchens, in-room washer and dryers, multiple full bathrooms- things you can't get in a studio.


I think this is the main reason poly prices are lower than Bay Lake and grand Floridian on the resale market. After people’s family grow they realize they would prefer 1 or 2 bedrooms. We just stayed at the poly and it was amazing. We much preferred the environment, location and view over BLT and VGF. However after staying 9 days in a studio with 2 kids we realized we would want to stay in 1 bedrooms if we bought. As a result we bought a BLT resale contract.

Poly lake views that are on the 3rd floor have an incredible view of the castle and 7th sea lagoons. The villas at grand Floridian lake views don’t have any great views like that. You get the lagoon but you don’t see the park. Bay lake tower theme park views are nice but you also get the parking lot. The lake views you don’t see the theme park usually. But in the end not having 1 bedrooms was a deal breaker.


----------



## SL6827

Seen a 50 point Beach Club for 140/point.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Yankee626 said:


> Why would Poly be less desirable because it only has Studios or Bungalows ?  You can use your points at any resort.  One and two bedroom suites are usually easy to book at any resort at the 7 month window.  If anything I would think Poly would be more desirable because it has more Studios which is  what most Members are looking for. Plus poly has a very low Dues cost.


Poly is also easy to switch into at 7 months quite easily many times of the year.   (i have done it 3 times in the past 2 years) When you buy a contract,one thing  you are buying the 11 month home field advantage.  Poly does not need it as much as some other places.
Plus the studios and bungalows only thing doesnt help much, more people like bigger accommodations than you realize i think..

Also, supply and demand.  Poly probably has fewer big contracts than other resorts because it is only studios, so that means more smaller contracts (in the 150 point area) so bigger supply
Not a knock on the resort (its one of. if not my fav)


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Yankee626 said:


> Why would Poly be less desirable because it only has Studios or Bungalows ?  You can use your points at any resort.  One and two bedroom suites are usually easy to book at any resort at the 7 month window.  If anything I would think Poly would be more desirable because it has more Studios which is  what most Members are looking for. Plus poly has a very low Dues cost.


My original point was just that Beach Club and Boardwalk have more room options than Poly so it's not a good comparison.  The lack of options is why Poly will always be lower priced than BLT (which offers a similar expiration date and membership dues) so the members obviously do place some value on it.

Yes, you can book at 7 months but so can SSR/OKW and their prices are even lower.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Yankee626 said:


> All 2042 contracts are overpriced on the resale market already.  How can  BCV resale contracts be selling for only $20 a point less than Poli contracts when they have 23 fewer years left.  I see the demand dropping and the amount of Sellers rising quickly over the next 3 months. Especially if DW remains closed.  By October I see the 2042 contracts to be selling between 60 and 80 a point.  VB and HH may drop to 20-30 a point due to their ridiculous high Dues . People just wont be able to afford this luxury for a while.


Maybe we'll be able to buy enough contracts to get us three months at WDW in the winter for retirement at those prices!


----------



## MICKIMINI

SL6827 said:


> Seen a 50 point Beach Club for 140/point.


I saw that too - wrong UY.  I looked at three major resellers this morning and prices haven't dropped by much - yet.


----------



## Deploraboo

Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open.  Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen,  stands to reason.  Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.

BK / acquisition is not out of the question here.  unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago.  Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.


----------



## SL6827

Deploraboo said:


> Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open.  Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen,  stands to reason.  Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.
> 
> BK / acquisition is not out of the question here.  unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago.  Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.


Yes, makes you wonder if he knew more.  I hope they don't go BK or if they are required by someone else that my two grand in Disney gift cards will still be good, ugghh.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

If there was a remote fear of bankruptcy at this point in time, would they be paying cast members?  And wall street has not reacted THAT harshly, its P/e is still around 15ish.


----------



## mort1331

Deploraboo said:


> Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open.  Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen,  stands to reason.  Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.
> 
> BK / acquisition is not out of the question here.  unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago.  Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.





SL6827 said:


> Yes, makes you wonder if he knew more.  I hope they don't go BK or if they are required by someone else that my two grand in Disney gift cards will still be good, ugghh.


Now who is stoking this fire of speculation. Fear breeds fear and that is all this is.


----------



## Deploraboo

TraderSamWDW said:


> If there was a remote fear of bankruptcy at this point in time, would they be paying cast members?  And wall street has not reacted THAT harshly, its P/e is still around 15ish.


We know the P but not the e.

eta:  it’s not “speculation” to expect that effectively zero cash flow will cause extreme financial distress.  And given relaxed SEC periodic filing requirements, it almost become gambling.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Deploraboo said:


> We know the P but not the e.


P/e is always past looking.   And considering the cruise lines were down in the 2 to 3 range a week ago,  I would say with dis at 15. Wall street isn't worried


----------



## Deploraboo

As of 5:10 pm, Sun Mar 29.


----------



## Louie7080

Deploraboo said:


> Now hearing park Openings will be staggered, when they actually do open.  Star Wars hotel and reflections on ice, and service likely to be limited for some time even when parks reopen,  stands to reason.  Seems Tron ok though as close to complete.
> 
> BK / acquisition is not out of the question here.  unbelievable change of circumstances from just one month ago.  Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.


I missed this news and did a quick search about staggered openings just now and couldn't find info on it - can you provide the article or post?  Thank you.


----------



## Deploraboo

Candidly came from reliable source on WDW Magic forum.  You’re welcome.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Yankee626 said:


> Why would Poly be less desirable because it only has Studios or Bungalows ?  You can use your points at any resort.  One and two bedroom suites are usually easy to book at any resort at the 7 month window.  If anything I would think Poly would be more desirable because it has more Studios which is  what most Members are looking for. Plus poly has a very low Dues cost.


Poly is overrun.  It is a beautiful resort but doesn’t have enough space to absorb all of the foot traffic or pool users.  The housekeeping there also leaves a lot to be desired.  This isn’t recent, these are systematic problems.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Dvc resale prices will definitely go down.  How much is the question.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Deploraboo said:


> As of 5:10 pm, Sun Mar 29.


Yes, that is the timestamp on the post.  I do not know the future.


----------



## Deploraboo

I very much hope you’re right and I’m wrong.


----------



## ELMC

poofyo101 said:


> I have been tracking almost everything.
> 
> The good deal contracts have not been pending/selling as fast as they would have.
> 
> Prices haven't really dipped yet but it seems the demand is gone...for now.


Yep.  This is how it starts.  It's a slow process that typically needs to go through several steps.  We saw it happen in reverse when the market climbed.  Bidding wars broke out on contracts before the listing ever hit the market, and that pushed prices higher, etc. etc.  Now you have triple loaded contracts that not only don't have a bidding war, but sit a few days before selling.  That's going to force the next person to list at a lower price, which will likely not have a bidding war and might not even sell for full price.  Prices will continue to fall as long as the pool of potential buyers shrinks and/or the number of contracts for sale increases.  

I'm always in the market for a nicely loaded DVC contract and even I'm not buying right now.  That should tell you something.


----------



## skippytx

Deploraboo said:


> Makes you wonder what Iger knew when he resigned out of the blue.


Iger's been trying to get out for years, I don't think he saw this coming. I think he got to a point where the Fox deal was wrapped up and saw an exit and took it. 

DVC contracts have a lot of emotion tied to them, and they'll be one of the last luxuries to go for most people, especially with most folks dues already paid for the year.  We might see a small depression in pricing in the near term, but things won't start really moving until those dues bills show up at the end of the year.  Then people will have to ask themselves if they're in a position where it makes sense to keep their DVC or sell it.


----------



## bookwormde

Below is a 3/31 update for some additional DVC resale pricing metrics

Method used is approximation from the 2 large sites that provide reduced and pending

Format (3/20 all listed)  3/31 all listed     reduced price contracts pending sales

AKV       (114)      113         110         109

AUL        (99)        100         97           96

BLT         (150)      150         144         137

BCV        (147)      148         138         140

BWV      (126)      123         118         118

BRV        (100)      99           100         98

CCV        (155)      154         148         147

VGF       (177)      176         168         164

HH          (81)        81           74           75

OKW      (102)      101         95           93

POLY      (148)      147         143         146

SS           (106)      106         102         101

VB          (67)        67           62           71


----------



## bookwormde

4/1 new contract levels updated on post 1

3/30 new contract were 50% below average count

3/31 were slightly above average


----------



## bookwormde

4/1

Slightly above number of new contracts

Heavy weighting of June contracts though they appear to be from 1 seller and came on at 25% above the market


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 4/1
> 
> Slightly above number of new contracts
> 
> Heavy weighting of June contracts though they appear to be from 1 seller and came on at 25% above the market


bookwormde - where are you getting this data ?
ET


----------



## MICKIMINI

Just found a $137 CCV contract.  I wasn't really thinking CCV, but it might be a good option.  I wasn't expecting that low a price at this point...

EDIT:  and another at $139


----------



## Cyberc1978

just saw that there are 6.6 million new unemployment claims in the US


----------



## holyrita

The 5 contracts I have been watching for a few days have all moved to 'sale pending'.


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> bookwormde - where are you getting this data ?
> ET


I am compiling it from 5 different re-sellers as well as the site that lists most  of the active listings

I do not think that I am allowed to list them, but one is TSS and the 2 largest are also included


----------



## bookwormde

holyrita said:


> The 5 contracts I have been watching for a few days have all moved to 'sale pending'.


yes the ones that are priced aggressively appear to be moving pretty fast


----------



## sky2823

If contracts really do get to the point where they are 50% off their highs, I think we will also be discussing  a Disney bankruptcy and the purchase will have some inherent risk.... (thus the low price).  just my opinion....


----------



## sethschroeder

Yankee626 said:


> How can BCV resale contracts be selling for only $20 a point less than Poli contracts when they have 23 fewer years left.



Because upfront prices are a small portion of total cost of a contract. Value 22 years from now is less important than the next 5 to 10 years when it comes to resale.

Direct its a bigger deal because those are "overpriced" so people want that blue card as long as possible.



Cyberc1978 said:


> just saw that there are 6.6 million new unemployment claims in the US



Its a terrible thing but also need to keep in mind people are way way more aware of the ability to claim unemployment than in the past. Thing such as reduced hours even can qualify you for unemployment.

Another thing to keep in mind that the unemployment is partly being driven by state forced closure instead of businesses going out of business, which is a good thing and hopefully remains true.

Finally a good thing that the Feds did was the extra $600 per week to unemployment for those claiming.


----------



## sethschroeder

sky2823 said:


> If contracts really do get to the point where they are 50% off their highs, I think we will also be discussing  a Disney bankruptcy and the purchase will have some inherent risk.... (thus the low price).  just my opinion....



I don't think the two are linked. Also Disney has major assets that it could sell off likely to avoid any bankruptcy. I mean could they sell of the Simpsons?

I think prices could drop simply because a reduction of excess spending.


----------



## sky2823

If this thing extends more than a few months (I don’t think it will), Disney will not have the cash flow to manage the parks, and won’t fire sale assets (assets would be pennies on the dollar in that environment and with the needed speed).  They will either be an acquisition target, receive a bail-out or go the bankruptcy route.  Again, I think bankruptcy is unlikely and you can argue it’s mutually exclusive, but if the park is closed for additional months that would mean the total economy is closed for additional months and that would mean an economic apocalypse that would put prices  very low and and Disney on the verge of bankruptcy.  Just my opinion...


----------



## Matty B13

MICKIMINI said:


> Just found a $137 CCV contract.  I wasn't really thinking CCV, but it might be a good option.  I wasn't expecting that low a price at this point...


Probably an uninformed owner who didn't really know what they bought, and now just wants to get rid of the contract.  Might not have even used any of the points.


----------



## SL6827

Matty B13 said:


> Probably an uninformed owner who didn't really know what they bought, and now just wants to get rid of the contract.  Might not have even used any of the points.


Could be.


----------



## SL6827

I seen some AKL 50-100 points for $115-$120 today.  Not sure how much of a dip that is.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Most likely, however I also came across an AKV at $99...these are the low end, but surprising to see them appear so quickly.  I think the economic ticking timebomb for business owners that know they can't make it may be combined with brokers that are (I'm guessing) advising those that have to sell, to price it to sell now before the market is flooded.  Unfortunately, many small businesses won't make it despite government intervention.  I owned my own successful business for twenty years and likely would not have withstood this crisis no matter what I did and I'm sorry for those that worked hard for so many years and hope that they can hold on.


----------



## SL6827

MICKIMINI said:


> Most likely, however I also came across an AKV at $99...these are the low end, but surprising to see them appear so quickly.  I think the economic ticking timebomb for business owners that know they can't make it may be combined with brokers that are (I'm guessing) advising those that have to sell, to price it to sell now before the market is flooded.  Unfortunately, many small businesses won't make it despite government intervention.  I owned my own successful business for twenty years and likely would not have withstood this crisis no matter what I did and I'm sorry for those that worked hard for so many years and hope that they can hold on.


I agree.  Good point about brokers telling clients to price low before the flood of contracts.  That is a smart broker.


----------



## MICKIMINI

I just received an email from a broker with reduced commission to 6%.  An early effort to "capture" listings I wonder if others will follow?


----------



## bookwormde

4/2 update

Slightly above average new resale contracts

Seeing additional 25% above the market new resale contracts, these are all showing up on a single site


----------



## RoseGold

I'm watching VGF and there is TONS on the market right now in the range of 155-160, which honestly I would have bought at three months ago.  BUT, even with such a huge drop, this isn't even down to 2017 prices.

None of them are moving, I think VGF still has room to fall, and I'm not in a hurry.


----------



## Matty B13

RoseGold said:


> I'm watching VGF and there is TONS on the market right now in the range of 155-160, which honestly I would have bought at three months ago.  BUT, even with such a huge drop, this isn't even down to 2017 prices.
> 
> None of them are moving, I think VGF still has room to fall, and I'm not in a hurry.


I've been doing the same thing, I'm looking for 2016 price range when we bought are original contract.  After this whole thing, DVC really will need to look at their direct pricing as well.


----------



## OlieRow

bookwormde said:


> I am compiling it from 5 different re-sellers as well as the site that lists most  of the active listings



What site lists most of the active listings?


----------



## JGINPL

I know this might not be the most popular view but I even wrote to Yvonne about DVC and doing something for all members.  See below:  (i received a generic response but still thought I should message her something)
Miss Yvonne Chang-
Hello and I hope this message finds you well. I see the economy at a whole is in unprecedented times. I was one of the lucky members that got my vacation in early February before everything happened with the coronavirus. From reading a lot of message boards, I know many members are uncertain how this virus may affect membership going forward. From reading from members how DVC was originally set up as more of a club instead of blue card member and white card member, I think it would show good will (on Disney's part) on going back to the days when everyone would receive a blue card. DVC members (resale or direct) vacation an awful lot at Disney when they do their vacations and it would be nice to see that there isn't a distinction going forward on which members get benefits and which ones do not. That is just my thought I had been having.

Sincerely,

Joey,

Thanks for reaching out and for sharing your feedback. We hope that you and your family are doing well and staying safe.

Warmest wishes,
Yvonne


----------



## bookwormde

OlieRow said:


> What site lists most of the active listings?


I do not want to risk a filter violation so I will not list the name/address, overall they include the 2 largest sites, this forum's sponsor and 2 smaller re sellers that I can reasonably time or sequence date their posting. The compiling site appears to be attached to one of the larger site


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

JGINPL said:


> I think it would show good will (on Disney's part) on going back to the days when everyone would receive a blue card.


As a resale owner, I'd be happy to accept the full package of benefits/perks.  But I'd be shocked if they provide all perks to resale purchasers.  That would remove a substantial incentive for buying direct.  They can exercise ROFR to re-acquire contracts at resale prices and immediately mark them up to direct pricing.  But unless they ROFR everything and the only way for new owners to purchase is direct, they would lose a lot of direct sales from people who are only willing to pay a hefty premium to obtain those perks.


----------



## lovethesun12

Grumpy by Birth said:


> As a resale owner, I'd be happy to accept the full package of benefits/perks.  But I'd be shocked if they provide all perks to resale purchasers.  That would remove a substantial incentive for buying direct.  They can exercise ROFR to re-acquire contracts at resale prices and immediately mark them up to direct pricing.  But unless they ROFR everything and the only way for new owners to purchase is direct, they would lose a lot of direct sales from people who are only willing to pay a hefty premium to obtain those perks.


I agree. This would definitely hurt their ability to sell direct. I can't see any logical reason for them doing that.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

Not to mention, you think Moonlight Magic is hard to get now?

They would probably reduce the perks.


----------



## mlayton14

RoseGold said:


> I'm watching VGF and there is TONS on the market right now in the range of 155-160, which honestly I would have bought at three months ago.  BUT, even with such a huge drop, this isn't even down to 2017 prices.
> 
> None of them are moving, I think VGF still has room to fall, and I'm not in a hurry.



Yes think it would be foolish to buy right now , not only are prices set to fall, maybe significantly, those new points will be much harder to use for actual rooms due to all of the points out there competing for rooms due to Covid19


----------



## sethschroeder

SL6827 said:


> I seen some AKL 50-100 points for $115-$120 today.  Not sure how much of a dip that is.



I am not sure that means too much. They may have just priced it wrong as that is the or slightly higher than a normal contract price point.


----------



## SL6827

sethschroeder said:


> I am not sure that means too much. They may have just priced it wrong as that is the or slightly higher than a normal contract price point.


Oh, ok.  I wasn't really sure about AKL pricing.


----------



## Matty B13

SL6827 said:


> Oh, ok.  I wasn't really sure about AKL pricing.


Back in 2016, you could get AKV for $85 to $95/point, sometimes with a fully loaded contract with 3 years of points in it.


----------



## suebeelin

During the recession 10 (2011ish) years ago, SSR was as low as $35-45, BWV as low as $50-60, AKL probably $60-70 andBLT about $70-80....  you get the picture.  Will this be worse?  Who knows but those were the prices back then.  The prices have been a bit high IMO since about 2017/2018....


----------



## ELMC

E2ME2 said:


> bookwormde - where are you getting this data ?
> ET


Based on the user name I'm going to guess that they are getting the data from books.  


MICKIMINI said:


> Just found a $137 CCV contract.  I wasn't really thinking CCV, but it might be a good option.  I wasn't expecting that low a price at this point...
> 
> EDIT:  and another at $139


A smart strategy when you are predicting a decline in prices is to price today based on what you think prices are going to be in six months.  Because in six months when everyone is feeling the pinch, that is going to cause prices to be lower than what we are predicting them to be in six months.  Simply put, this is a glimpse into our future and a sign of where things are moving.



sky2823 said:


> If this thing extends more than a few months (I don’t think it will), Disney will not have the cash flow to manage the parks, and won’t fire sale assets (assets would be pennies on the dollar in that environment and with the needed speed).  They will either be an acquisition target, receive a bail-out or go the bankruptcy route.  Again, I think bankruptcy is unlikely and you can argue it’s mutually exclusive, but if the park is closed for additional months that would mean the total economy is closed for additional months and that would mean an economic apocalypse that would put prices  very low and and Disney on the verge of bankruptcy.  Just my opinion...


I think you are saying things that might not be entirely accurate.  Sure, Disney is getting hurt by the park closures which could theoretically extend through the summer and into the fall.  However, they are a more diversified company than they ever have been.  Additionally, they have about six billion dollars of cash on hand and just raised another seven billion dollars in debt.  This is not something you do if you think you're going to be closed for two months.  They have positioned themselves for multiple scenarios far worse than what we are seeing now.   I think that the worst-case scenario for Disney is that they are not profitable for a few years as they dig their way out of this.  There are worse things.  And while possible, I think that acquisition, bailout, or bankruptcy are outside the range of likely outcomes.


----------



## ELMC

Matty B13 said:


> Back in 2016, you could get AKV for $85 to $95/point, sometimes with a fully loaded contract with 3 years of points in it.


You ready for this?  Back in 2012 I passed on an AKV contract with three years worth of points at $63 per point because I didn't want to pay more than $60.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

ELMC said:


> Based on the user name I'm going to guess that they are getting the data from books.
> 
> A smart strategy when you are predicting a decline in prices is to price today based on what you think prices are going to be in six months.  Because in six months when everyone is feeling the pinch, that is going to cause prices to be lower than what we are predicting them to be in six months.  Simply put, this is a glimpse into our future and a sign of where things are moving.
> 
> 
> I think you are saying things that might not be entirely accurate.  Sure, Disney is getting hurt by the park closures which could theoretically extend through the summer and into the fall.  However, they are a more diversified company than they ever have been.  Additionally, they have about six billion dollars of cash on hand and just raised another seven billion dollars in debt.  This is not something you do if you think you're going to be closed for two months.  They have positioned themselves for multiple scenarios far worse than what we are seeing now.   I think that the worst-case scenario for Disney is that they are not profitable for a few years as they dig their way out of this.  There are worse things.  And while possible, I think that acquisition, bailout, or bankruptcy are outside the range of likely outcomes.


Wasn't the new debt they raised to replace debt that was coming due?


----------



## becauseimnew

DH and I decided that we would buy in if prices fell to 2016 prices, basically less than $100. That's if neither of us gets laid off.


----------



## RoseGold

mlayton14 said:


> Yes think it would be foolish to buy right now , not only are prices set to fall, maybe significantly, those new points will be much harder to use for actual rooms due to all of the points out there competing for rooms due to Covid19



I want a stripped contract anyway, so I'm not too concerned about that.  But yea, those fully loaded contracts are looking less appealing right about now.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

ChipNdale8887 said:


> Wasn't the new debt they raised to replace debt that was coming due?


basically.  Guess it depends on how you look at it.  They could use all the money they are not paying contractors for all the work they not doing to pay debt, then use the new capital to pay them when work starts up - just an example - but its really a bookkeeping and semantic argument.  Tomato - Tom-ah-to

They certainly didn't issue the bonds to fund new  capital expenses!  So yes, debt service (and other liabilities)


----------



## Drewferin

Today Disney also moved to file for the new Fed loan programs. Granted we have no idea how much they will be asking for from the US government.


----------



## RivShore

Drewferin said:


> Today Disney also moved to file for the new Fed loan programs. Granted we have no idea how much they will be asking for from the US government.



Is there actual news that the "filed" for the loans?  The only article I saw said a travel industry lobbying group was urging for loans to their members including DIS.


----------



## E2ME2

ELMC said:


> You ready for this?  Back in 2012 I passed on an AKV contract with three years worth of points at $63 per point because I didn't want to pay more than $60.


To put this in perspective; I pined over a few contracts as recently as 2013-2015, even saw an SSR contract for ~$65/Point that I really though about, but at that time I was unable to make the purchase (based on doing cash only).  I finally got the cash to pull the trigger this February, at what I thought was a really good price ($89/Point), but who knows if maybe the $65/Point will be back in the near future ??  No regrets - (I'm grateful that I have the $$ now to do it) I just want to be able to use them, and can't wait for WDW to be open again!
ET


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

bookwormde said:


> I do not want to risk a filter violation so I will not list the name/address, overall they include the 2 largest sites, this forum's sponsor and 2 smaller re sellers that I can reasonably time or sequence date their posting. The compiling site appears to be attached to one of the larger site



The DIS rule is to post the link to the website and allow the filter to work.  You only get in trouble if you try and circumvent the filter.


----------



## LAX

suebeelin said:


> During the recession 10 (2011ish) years ago, SSR was as low as $35-45, BWV as low as $50-60, AKL probably $60-70 andBLT about $70-80....  you get the picture.  Will this be worse?  Who knows but those were the prices back then.  The prices have been a bit high IMO since about 2017/2018....



How much was VGC back then?

LAX


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

LAX said:


> How much was VGC back then?
> 
> LAX





LAX said:


> How much was VGC back then?
> 
> LAX



I recall direct with incentives in the $88/pt range and I believe resales could be found in the mid $70's although there's never been a lot of them.


----------



## bookwormde

4/3 Update

Average number of new resale contracts

New Aulani contracts came on in the high 80s


----------



## MICKIMINI

Looking at the bigger resellers this morning, maybe it was my imagination, but there seemed to be one in particular with many new, virtually stripped and overpriced contracts IMO.  Perhaps owners of multiple contracts are listing all of them knowing they may get a bite on one or two and then pull the others.  I often see a pattern, for instance same UY and same weird number of points for multiple contracts at the same and/or different resorts, mostly all stripped.  The best values will be gone quickly as OP's have mentioned, but I believe sheer number of contracts listed in the next couple of months will thin prices substantially.  Have your pencils sharpened...


----------



## Matty B13

Seems like some brokers are actually listing contracts with higher prices!!!!  Can't believe it.  I guess anyone who is looking for contracts will have to wait it out for awhile so see if they drop.  Might have to wait till this fall when people start having to save up for MF's for 2021.


----------



## poofyo101

All of this speculation that it will go down is great, however it does not matter if disney does not stop ROFRing at the current rates/prices.

Most expect them to stop ROFRing but until this happens the prices aren't going to drop dramatically.
IMO

As there has been no proof of super low prices getting through ROFR yet on the ROFR thread.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

poofyo101 said:


> All of this speculation that it will go down is great, however it does not matter if disney does not stop ROFRing at the current rates/prices.
> 
> Most expect them to stop ROFRing but until this happens the prices aren't going to drop dramatically.
> IMO
> 
> As there has been no proof of super low prices getting through ROFR yet on the ROFR thread.


It mainly seems like right now buyers have dried up  due to uncertainty which makes sense. The federal government is pumping a lot of money into people’s pockets soon but it hasn’t gotten there yet. Between the one time payments and unemployment enhancement it seems like a lot of people are not going to be hit hard yet anyways. At least through July. Business owners on the other hand and commission based jobs are in a rough spot. It’s hard to judge right now, because this isn’t normal. Jobless claims are insane because certain sectors are shut down. 

it sounds like Disney isn’t treating it like a normal recession yet either.I saw in another thread they recently applied for a bunch of reflections based permits so that might be going ahead like usual. I honestly don’t know how long some mid or small companies can last under a month or two or three of shut down. If restrictions can be eased in that time frame I expect a lot of stuff just goes back to mostly normal. Cruises might not though.


----------



## MICKIMINI

I suspect certain permitting for Reflections will continue as DVC may be planning on bidding or rebidding certain segments of construction that may have been at a premium a month ago and may be very competitive now, though they will have to wait to continue construction.  I'm guessing they will continue to build but at a slower pace as they will need to have something to sell in 3-5 years.


----------



## Brianstl

poofyo101 said:


> All of this speculation that it will go down is great, however it does not matter if disney does not stop ROFRing at the current rates/prices.
> 
> Most expect them to stop ROFRing but until this happens the prices aren't going to drop dramatically.
> IMO
> 
> As there has been no proof of super low prices getting through ROFR yet on the ROFR thread.


You were the last contract to get ROFRed and that was almost three weeks ago and probably further back than that if you were going through Fidelity. The decision to exercise ROFR was most certainly made before they knew they were shutting down everything and they had no income coming in from theaters and ad revenue disappeared from their media properties.


----------



## Brianstl

MonkeyKnifeFight said:


> It mainly seems like right now buyers have dried up  due to uncertainty which makes sense. The federal government is pumping a lot of money into people’s pockets soon but it hasn’t gotten there yet. Between the one time payments and unemployment enhancement it seems like a lot of people are not going to be hit hard yet anyways. At least through July. Business owners on the other hand and commission based jobs are in a rough spot. It’s hard to judge right now, because this isn’t normal. Jobless claims are insane because certain sectors are shut down.
> 
> it sounds like Disney isn’t treating it like a normal recession yet either.I saw in another thread they recently applied for a bunch of reflections based permits so that might be going ahead like usual. I honestly don’t know how long some mid or small companies can last under a month or two or three of shut down. If restrictions can be eased in that time frame I expect a lot of stuff just goes back to mostly normal. Cruises might not though.


It was a bunch of permits that got approved.  I think Disney probably submitted for those permits before this all started.


----------



## bookwormde

Brianstl said:


> It was a bunch of permits that got approved.  I think Disney probably submitted for those permits before this all started.


As I understand t these were released  from imagineering in April


----------



## bookwormde

Here is what have seen so far:
There was a surge of additional resale contracts when stock market was falling dramatically in March, since then the rate of new resales has been typical of what we have seen over the last years

Demand for "bargains" has been strong especially for smaller contracts.

There have been a lot of resale contracts that have lowered their asking price significantly

At several resorts the prices have dropped quite significantly while at others they have held up pretty well.

My guess is that some of the owners of April and June contracts are waiting for the final word from DVC on if any relief from their expiring points is going to happen.


----------



## Deploraboo

Chances of Utilizing drawdowns on corporate revolver to fund ROFRs = not very good


----------



## sky2823

curious...

which resorts do you view holding up well price wise so far and which ones are showing weakness?


----------



## bookwormde

sky2823 said:


> curious...
> 
> which resorts do you view holding up well price wise so far and which ones are showing weakness?


BCV, CCV AKV and SSR have held up pretty well s far, VGF, Poly, OKW, BWV and AUL have taken a stronger hit


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Thanks to all for such interesting discussion!  I’m hoping to be able to buy some more points in the near future.  The possibility of a market price adjustment is great news for us! - We have GF taste on a HH budget!


----------



## Galun

I made offers on multiple contracts last week.  I was looking for double to triple loaded contracts as I already had large bookings lined up.  I could reallocate those newly acquired banked points and get back the current use year points that I used to make those reservations.

I paid no attention to the asking price, and offered what I thought they were worth.  My offers got rejected on a few but I was successful on two.  They were maybe 10 - 20% off of asking price, and with the value of the banked points the net price was substantially lower since I get 2018/2019 points for free as well.  On a net price basis it was maybe back to mid 2015 prices.  The contracts were just 5% higher than when I last added in early 2015.

IMO the difference between this recession and the previous ones was the direct injection of cash into the economy by the US government.  If the current stimulus is not enough, it’s an election year and I think both parties will agree to more stimulus.  Selling DVC is not an easy source of cash - you need to pay a commission to the broker, and you need to wait months to get the cash due to rofr / closing etc.  Also people have already paid their 2020 maintenance fees. 

I personally don’t think there will be a substantial increase in desperate sellers unless this recession continues well into the end of this year, if the government does not have additional stimulus, and people look at their 2021 maintenance fees.   If you see a contract you like, just offer and see what happens.  Worst case is that particular seller will say no, and you move on to another one.  You never know how desperate the seller may be until you offer.  The broker will have an idea on the seller’s situation as well, and can possibly recommend you to offer on other contracts.


----------



## Perelandra

You all are very optimistic.  That's fantastic! I'm not sure how it exactly works out though. We have a country that has decided to put the economy in a coma until they feel comfortable everything is under control, with no timeframe. This is one of the most discretionary items that you could possibly own, with dues that go up every year beyond anyone's control. I would have to imagine theme parks, with thousands of people piled on top of one another, and countless surfaces, will be one of the last things to re-open.  I hate to say it, but I don't think there is a normal to go back to, and I have no idea how Disney parks fit into the "new normal". Disney has pushed the envelope to this point on the back of one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Now what happens with the greatest economic downturn in a 100 years is anyone's guess.  And if you question that last statement, just look at jobless claims for the last couple of weeks, and imagine that at least 2 states already have shut down the economy until June 15th. Help me see past this. Give me reasons to think otherwise. Thanks in advance.


----------



## Galun

Perelandra said:


> You all are very optimistic.  That's fantastic! I'm not sure how it exactly works out though. We have a country that has decided to put the economy in a coma until they feel comfortable everything is under control, with no timeframe. This is one of the most discretionary items that you could possibly own, with dues that go up every year beyond anyone's control. I would have to imagine theme parks, with thousands of people piled on top of one another, and countless surfaces, will be one of the last things to re-open.  I hate to say it, but I don't think there is a normal to go back to, and I have no idea how Disney parks fit into the "new normal". Disney has pushed the envelope to this point on the back of one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Now what happens with the greatest economic downturn in a 100 years is anyone's guess.  And if you question that last statement, just look at jobless claims for the last couple of weeks, and imagine that at least 2 states already have shut down the economy until June 15th. Help me see past this. Give me reasons to think otherwise. Thanks in advance.



IMO

Unemployment claims vastly over represent true unemployment, as many employers are furloughing their employees so they can get unemployment immediately from the government.

Stimulus bill essentially gives small businesses 2 months worth grant of payroll and rent support.  There small businesses account for around 40% of US workforce.  For large businesses, they get separate grants and loans to keep paying people.  If 2 months of support is not enough, new stimulus bill will be passed, because it’s an election year and nobody wants to be seen in the way of obstructing people getting paid.  This is basically a case of the entire economy being too big to fail.

This is not a structural issue in the economy.   It’s a new disease that people currently don’t have no immunity to.  In the short term, rapid testing has already been invented, and in the process of scaling up manufacturing. Once we have that, we can lift quarantine, open up the economy, and use rapid testing to pinpoint hotspots for response.  Longer term, there is a well developed vaccine development process so it’s just a matter of time.

I agree that Disney vacation is discretionary.  Many people’s lives will be disrupted, some in catastrophic ways.  Prices will certainly drop.  But this is not 2008 where It’s a systemic issue of people who can’t afford to buy houses stretching into them and get wiped out - in that situation people have to fire sell assets to try to keep their home.  In this case, I think we are looking at a couple months of disruption in cash flow, and the US government is at the very least providing a 2 month cushion In cash flow.  People’s monthly dues are already paid until 2021.   If you need cash immediately, it will take two months to get the cash from a DVC sale even if it sells immediately.  Therefore I think prices will drop but I don’t think there will be a fire sale.


----------



## Perelandra

I appreciate the response. I would feel much better if there were a set date to re-open the economy. Just printing money from the fed and giving it out has major consequences too. There is a major tax revenue loss right now, and bailing everyone out from an entity that cannot actually produce anything on its own is problematic. Hopefully everything will get back to normal soon.


----------



## Deploraboo

How is it not a “structural issue” with the economy that literally only two weeks of halving of economic activity has caused markets to crash 30%, major corporates to beg for cash, draw down on their corporate revolvers, lift guidance  and cloak layoffs as “furloughs”.

I assure you, that represents a ‘structural’ economic issue.


----------



## Perelandra

I hate to say this, and at the same time can't believe I feel like it needs to be said, but putting your entire economy on coma indefinitely (for at the very, very minimum 3 months) is going to have lasting effects that far EXCEED 2008, especially in the discretionary travel sector. So, to get back to topic, I would expect some very good bargains on DVC around the end of this year. I hope and pray that I'm wrong.


----------



## Galun

Deploraboo said:


> How is it not a “structural issue” with the economy that literally only two weeks of halving of economic activity has caused markets to crash 30%, major corporates to beg for cash, draw down on their corporate revolvers, lift guidance  and cloak layoffs as “furloughs”.
> 
> I assure you, that represents a ‘structural’ economic issue.



The underlying economy is fine.  It’s a working capital / cash flow issue.  Corporations don’t let cash sit around doing nothing to plan for a contingency in case of a pandemic that shuts down the entire economy for a month or two.  Nor should they.

There is a difference between temporary cash flow / liquidity issue caused by a black swan event, which is what we have now, vs. structural underlying issue like an over levered consumer in 2008.  

Anyways, differing views makes markets.  I am buying now because I think prices will stabilize.  If the resale market actually crash, I will plan to buy more.


----------



## Perelandra

I am not so sure that 2 or 4 or 6 trillion dollar bailouts from an entity that cannot even produce a dollar,  is going to just make for temporary cash flow issues. How do we not end up with hyperinflation? Anyway, I hope you are right.


----------



## lovethesun12

Galun said:


> IMO
> 
> Unemployment claims vastly over represent true unemployment, as many employers are furloughing their employees so they can get unemployment immediately from the government.
> 
> Stimulus bill essentially gives small businesses 2 months worth grant of payroll and rent support.  There small businesses account for around 40% of US workforce.  For large businesses, they get separate grants and loans to keep paying people.  If 2 months of support is not enough, new stimulus bill will be passed, because it’s an election year and nobody wants to be seen in the way of obstructing people getting paid.  This is basically a case of the entire economy being too big to fail.
> 
> This is not a structural issue in the economy.   It’s a new disease that people currently don’t have no immunity to.  In the short term, rapid testing has already been invented, and in the process of scaling up manufacturing. Once we have that, we can lift quarantine, open up the economy, and use rapid testing to pinpoint hotspots for response.  Longer term, there is a well developed vaccine development process so it’s just a matter of time.
> 
> I agree that Disney vacation is discretionary.  Many people’s lives will be disrupted, some in catastrophic ways.  Prices will certainly drop.  But this is not 2008 where It’s a systemic issue of people who can’t afford to buy houses stretching into them and get wiped out - in that situation people have to fire sell assets to try to keep their home.  In this case, I think we are looking at a couple months of disruption in cash flow, and the US government is at the very least providing a 2 month cushion In cash flow.  People’s monthly dues are already paid until 2021.   If you need cash immediately, it will take two months to get the cash from a DVC sale even if it sells immediately.  Therefore I think prices will drop but I don’t think there will be a fire sale.


I'm not sure I agree that people won't have to fire sell assets. I really hope I'm wrong. But we are talking about 6.6 million people, with many millions more possibly concerned about the *possibility* of being laid off, and I would imagine many of them will be receiving less than their regular salary. There is a lot of uncertainty with this and there is no way you can convince me people who are laid off are not worried at all about when they will return to work. I'm sure many are taking a look at what extras they can cut and where they can save to stay afloat. And if you are talking about a several thousand dollar payment approaching many may not be as concerned with taking a loss on point value as they are with coughing up that payment.


----------



## TheGecko

Galun said:


> The underlying economy is fine.  It’s a working capital / cash flow issue.  Corporations don’t let cash sit around doing nothing to plan for a contingency in case of a pandemic that shuts down the entire economy for a month or two.  Nor should they.
> 
> There is a difference between temporary cash flow / liquidity issue caused by a black swan event, which is what we have now, vs. structural underlying issue like an over levered consumer in 2008.
> 
> Anyways, differing views makes markets.  I am buying now because I think prices will stabilize.  If the resale market actually crash, I will plan to buy more.



This crash is much different than the last few. Companies got drunk on cheap credit to fund stock buybacks instead of expanding operations/wages/productivity. Now they are sitting on piles of debt with now revenue coming in. That money spent to boost the share price has been eroded into nothing. The companies cannot pay their dividends either. Kind of sad, but it shows how much of a crapshoot the Wall Street roulette wheel can be at times. I can't see Disney turning around anytime soon with the parks closed and Moviegoing will be down for sure for quite some time. 

DVC prices will go down, but unfortunately, the Maintenance costs will probably go up quite a bit if the shared resorts have less foot traffic in the non DVC portions.


----------



## Perelandra

lovethesun12 said:


> I'm not sure I agree that people won't have to fire sell assets. I really hope I'm wrong. But we are talking about 6.6 million people, with many millions more possibly concerned about the *possibility* of being laid off, and I would imagine many of them will be receiving less than their regular salary. There is a lot of uncertainty with this and there is no way you can convince me people who are laid off are not worried at all about when they will return to work. I'm sure many are taking a look at what extras they can cut and where they can save to stay afloat. And if you are talking about a several thousand dollar payment approaching many may not be as concerned with taking a loss on point value as they are with coughing up that payment.


Ok. This is embarrassing, but for others reading this at this important time, I will say, I have made over $200,000 and over $250,000 for most of the last 10 years.  I backed out of our DVC resale contract offer that I made at a very good price, and have cut off my cable service, my lawn service, and my maid service in the last 30 days. I have nothing left but my mortgage, and a beach house I'm stuck with in Florida. We are no longer ordering out and we are rationing food. If you really are going along with life as normal at this point, I hope you are right.


----------



## Sandisw

Perelandra said:


> Ok. This is embarrassing, but for others reading this at this important time, I will say, I have made over $200,000 and over $250,000 for most of the last 10 years.  I backed out of our DVC resale contract offer that I made at a very good price, and have cut off my cable service, my lawn service, and my maid service in the last 30 days. I have nothing left but my mortgage, and a beach house I'm stuck with in Florida. We are no longer ordering out and we are rationing food. If you really are going along with life as normal at this point, I hope you are right.



PrAyers and


----------



## icc2515

IMO the real deals on DVC contracts will not happen until the maint fee bills come out.  People can sit on their contracts for now and see where the economy heads When they are faced with a $1500 bill and no job it will be crunch time.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Perelandra said:


> Ok. This is embarrassing, but for others reading this at this important time, I will say, I have made over $200,000 and over $250,000 for most of the last 10 years.  I backed out of our DVC resale contract offer that I made at a very good price, and have cut off my cable service, my lawn service, and my maid service in the last 30 days. I have nothing left but my mortgage, and a beach house I'm stuck with in Florida. We are no longer ordering out and we are rationing food. If you really are going along with life as normal at this point, I hope you are right.


I hope you are no longer embarrassed; sharing our truth is courageous and real.  I pray and hope the economy and health situation starts to rebound quickly.  It sounds like your have made good mitigations quickly.


----------



## sethschroeder

Perelandra said:


> Now what happens with the greatest economic downturn in a 100 years is anyone's guess.



Except 2007/2009 was worse where the DOW dropped 54% and wiped out 12 years of growth. 

We have only wiped out 4 years of growth right now and at the bottom it was a 35% reduction now sitting at 28%.

Also understand the markets tanked for very different reasons and this market is bound to rebound upon signs of lock downs ending even if there is longer restrictions. 

Things could get worse we will see.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Quick question, what do we think the odds would be on a one time maintenance fee assessment per point to offset lack of revenue? Or a hike in next years’s maintenance fees?


----------



## sethschroeder

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Quick question, what do we think the odds would be on a one time maintenance fee assessment per point to offset lack of revenue? Or a hike in next years’s maintenance fees?



MFs are to pay the costs to run the resort not to make a profit.


----------



## lovethesun12

Perelandra said:


> Ok. This is embarrassing, but for others reading this at this important time, I will say, I have made over $200,000 and over $250,000 for most of the last 10 years.  I backed out of our DVC resale contract offer that I made at a very good price, and have cut off my cable service, my lawn service, and my maid service in the last 30 days. I have nothing left but my mortgage, and a beach house I'm stuck with in Florida. We are no longer ordering out and we are rationing food. If you really are going along with life as normal at this point, I hope you are right.


I would not be embarrassed at all. You're not alone in this! For the record, this will be short term pain we all need to get through - science has a solution to this there is no doubt there. Jobs will return. I'm just not convinced luxury items like DVC will rebound as quickly.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

sethschroeder said:


> MFs are to pay the costs to run the resort not to make a profit.


Yes.  Apologies for my lack of clarity in communication.  With the resorts closed for an extended time, isn’t there more expense to run the resort that doesn’t get picked up in some part by regular visitors?


----------



## sethschroeder

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Yes.  Apologies for my lack of clarity in communication.  With the resorts closed for an extended time, isn’t there more expense to run the resort that doesn’t get picked up in some part by regular visitors?



No because everyone splits the costs all the time. Disney has to pay based on the points they hold. 

Disney might make more or less money but that does not matter. 

Only thing might happen is a slight reduction because of no daily costs of labor and upkeep during this time.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

sethschroeder said:


> No because everyone splits the costs all the time. Disney has to pay based on the points they hold.
> 
> Disney might make more or less money but that does not matter.
> 
> Only thing might happen is a slight reduction because of no daily costs of labor and upkeep during this time.


Thanks!


----------



## Deploraboo

Galun said:


> The underlying economy is fine.  It’s a working capital / cash flow issue.  Corporations don’t let cash sit around doing nothing to plan for a contingency in case of a pandemic that shuts down the entire economy for a month or two.  Nor should they.
> 
> There is a difference between temporary cash flow / liquidity issue caused by a black swan event, which is what we have now, vs. structural underlying issue like an over levered consumer in 2008.
> 
> Anyways, differing views makes markets.  I am buying now because I think prices will stabilize.  If the resale market actually crash, I will plan to buy more.


The “underlying economy” is not ”fine”.  Not by any calculable measure.


----------



## Deploraboo

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Quick question, what do we think the odds would be on a one time maintenance fee assessment per point to offset lack of revenue? Or a hike in next years’s maintenance fees?


100% metaphysical certitude.


----------



## RivShore

Perelandra said:


> I am not so sure that 2 or 4 or 6 trillion dollar bailouts from an entity that cannot even produce a dollar,  is going to just make for temporary cash flow issues. *How do we not end up with hyperinflation*? Anyway, I hope you are right.



We all were probably saying that after the 2008 bailouts and it never came...in fact the fed has been more worried about deflation since then.  It's a much different world and that assumption may not be automatic any more with the global labor market and technology advancements always pushing back against inflation.


----------



## Matty B13

You don't get inflation if employers don't raise wages higher than the rise of GDP, I know I've only gotten a raise of 2% any year over the last 10+ years.


----------



## icc2515

sethschroeder said:


> No because everyone splits the costs all the time. Disney has to pay based on the points they hold.


I am pretty sure that I have read on these forums that Disney does not pay any MF fee on the points that they own.  Instead they agreed to pay for any shortfalls in refurbs that arise.  

I got that info from the thread below.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/covid-19-points-fate.3798010/


----------



## sethschroeder

icc2515 said:


> I am pretty sure that I have read on these forums that Disney does not pay any MF fee on the points that they own.  Instead they agreed to pay for any shortfalls in refurbs that arise.
> 
> I got that info from the thread below.
> 
> https://www.disboards.com/threads/covid-19-points-fate.3798010/



Thats talking about declared but then unsold points. Not the baseline points that Disney is required to own and also not the points they get through ROFR.


----------



## icc2515

sethschroeder said:


> Thats talking about declared but then unsold points. Not the baseline points that Disney is required to own and also not the points they get through ROFR.



Thanks for the clarification.


----------



## MinnieB

RivShore said:


> We all were probably saying that after the 2008 bailouts and it never came....,


The 2008 “bailouts” were generally in the form of loans, paid back in full with interest. One can hope this time plays out in the same way. However, we don’t yet know how deeply this will impact people or what the recovery will look like. It is difficult to know if comparisons  to prior events will prove relevant.


----------



## ELMC

Perelandra said:


> You all are very optimistic.  That's fantastic! I'm not sure how it exactly works out though. We have a country that has decided to put the economy in a coma until they feel comfortable everything is under control, with no timeframe. This is one of the most discretionary items that you could possibly own, with dues that go up every year beyond anyone's control. I would have to imagine theme parks, with thousands of people piled on top of one another, and countless surfaces, will be one of the last things to re-open.  I hate to say it, but I don't think there is a normal to go back to, and I have no idea how Disney parks fit into the "new normal". Disney has pushed the envelope to this point on the back of one of the greatest bull markets of all time. Now what happens with the greatest economic downturn in a 100 years is anyone's guess.  And if you question that last statement, just look at jobless claims for the last couple of weeks, and imagine that at least 2 states already have shut down the economy until June 15th. Help me see past this. Give me reasons to think otherwise. Thanks in advance.



I can't.  I think you're right.  That said...



Perelandra said:


> Ok. This is embarrassing, but for others reading this at this important time, I will say, I have made over $200,000 and over $250,000 for most of the last 10 years.  I backed out of our DVC resale contract offer that I made at a very good price, and have cut off my cable service, my lawn service, and my maid service in the last 30 days. I have nothing left but my mortgage, and a beach house I'm stuck with in Florida. We are no longer ordering out and we are rationing food. If you really are going along with life as normal at this point, I hope you are right.



You should do what you feel most comfortable with, but there is a chance you might be overcorrecting.  But that's ok, because if things become as bad as you think they will then you're prepared, and if not then you're ahead.



Galun said:


> IMO
> 
> Unemployment claims vastly over represent true unemployment, as many employers are furloughing their employees so they can get unemployment immediately from the government.
> 
> Stimulus bill essentially gives small businesses 2 months worth grant of payroll and rent support.  There small businesses account for around 40% of US workforce.  For large businesses, they get separate grants and loans to keep paying people.  If 2 months of support is not enough, new stimulus bill will be passed, because it’s an election year and nobody wants to be seen in the way of obstructing people getting paid.  This is basically a case of the entire economy being too big to fail.
> 
> This is not a structural issue in the economy.   It’s a new disease that people currently don’t have no immunity to.  In the short term, rapid testing has already been invented, and in the process of scaling up manufacturing. Once we have that, we can lift quarantine, open up the economy, and use rapid testing to pinpoint hotspots for response.  Longer term, there is a well developed vaccine development process so it’s just a matter of time.
> 
> I agree that Disney vacation is discretionary.  Many people’s lives will be disrupted, some in catastrophic ways.  Prices will certainly drop.  But this is not 2008 where It’s a systemic issue of people who can’t afford to buy houses stretching into them and get wiped out - in that situation people have to fire sell assets to try to keep their home.  In this case, I think we are looking at a couple months of disruption in cash flow, and the US government is at the very least providing a 2 month cushion In cash flow.  People’s monthly dues are already paid until 2021.   If you need cash immediately, it will take two months to get the cash from a DVC sale even if it sells immediately.  Therefore I think prices will drop but I don’t think there will be a fire sale.


This is definitely one narrative.  But here's another:

Stimulus checks don't arrive in time or are not enough (spoiler alert:  they're not) or the lockdown lasts longer than we were initially told and businesses can't hang on.  One by one they shutter their doors, economically devastating not only the owners but the employees who have nowhere else to turn.  We open the economy back up and assuming everyone isn't terrified by that point, it starts to ramp up right up until there is a resurgence of the virus and we have to do it all over again.  The vaccine is arguably still 12-18 months away, if that.  At the same time we have to deal with the aftermath of the Fed basically printing trillions of dollars and the impacts that it has on the economy, which I'm guessing won't be good.   So take all this and tell me, if this is happening to you and you own a $20,000 timeshare, don't you think you'd sell it?

Point is, I'm not saying you're predictions are going to be correct and I'm not saying that mine are.  But they're both on the list of possible outcomes, and it would be unwise to dismiss either possibility.  Bringing it back to the question at hand...this will lead to utter decimation of the resale value of DVC contracts.



sethschroeder said:


> Only thing might happen is a slight reduction because of no daily costs of labor and upkeep during this time.


I think it might be more than slight.  IIRC, labor is the most significant line item in our DVC dues.  Not only are housekeepers being furloughed but so are bell services, front desk, lifeguards, etc. etc. etc.  I think there is going to be a huge line item cost savings there.  I have no idea how it will be handled, passed through or not, or what impact it will have on dues next year.


----------



## ELMC

MinnieB said:


> The 2008 “bailouts” were generally in the form of loans, paid back in full with interest. One can hope this time plays out in the same way. However, we don’t yet know how deeply this will impact people or what the recovery will look like. It is difficult to know if comparisons  to prior events will prove relevant.


Small businesses are being offered loans that are 2.5x payroll (up to $10,000,000) and however much of that amount you can spend in 8 weeks is forgiven.  Simply put, there is no payback this time, it's a giveaway.  The remainder is payable after 12 months, but what do you think the default rate is going to be on those loans?  Not sure about large businesses but you can bet there are payoffs and not just loans.  This is not a fix by any means, it's triage.  And it's simultaneously woefully inadequate and yet large enough to wreak havoc on the economy.  I could be wrong here, but I think we are in for a world of hurt and a lot of people don't see it.  But they're starting to.  Oh yeah, on topic, DVC resale prices down.


----------



## MinnieB

ELMC said:


> Oh yeah, on topic, DVC resale prices down.



Agree. This is fully a question of magnitude, not direction.


----------



## poofyo101

Brianstl said:


> You were the last contract to get ROFRed and that was almost three weeks ago and probably further back than that if you were going through Fidelity. The decision to exercise ROFR was most certainly made before they knew they were shutting down everything and they had no income coming in from theaters and ad revenue disappeared from their media properties.


I might have been the last one but almost every other contract that has gone through wasn't going to get bought back anyway based upon the variables we knew prior.


----------



## bookwormde

4/4 Update

New resale contract counts were  at about 25% of average


----------



## TheGecko

We are still a ways off on pricing for DVC. Back in 2014/2015 it was common to get AKL in the high 70s and low 80s.  OKW was in the 60s-70s depending on size of contract. I see it going there again and soon.

DVC, Disney and the Airlines were in pure bubble mode. The prices on flights, tickets, and points increase greatly outpaced inflation by a tune of close to 2X-3X. I was actually shocked when I saw what I was paying for my trip this June versus 6 years ago. The same accommodations for a family of 5 (room, tickets, quick service meal plan)  is running about 2K more per trip. The flights were running about 1K more (close to doubled) when I bought in January. Of course the airline tickets have cratered now which was is my fault for buying too soon. 

This was not a sustainable model if an econmic slow down occured. Well it is here so let's see where it all lands.


----------



## lovethesun12

TheGecko said:


> We are still a ways off on pricing for DVC. Back in 2014/2015 it was common to get AKL in the high 70s and low 80s.  OKW was in the 60s-70s depending on size of contract. I see it going there again and soon.
> 
> DVC, Disney and the Airlines were in pure bubble mode. The prices on flights, tickets, and points increase greatly outpaced inflation by a tune of close to 2X-3X. I was actually shocked when I saw what I was paying for my trip this June versus 6 years ago. The same accommodations for a family of 5 (room, tickets, quick service meal plan)  is running about 2K more per trip. The flights were running about 1K more (close to doubled) when I bought in January. Of course the airline tickets have cratered now which was is my fault for buying too soon.
> 
> This was not a sustainable model if an econmic slow down occured. Well it is here so let's see where it all lands.


You worded this perfectly in my opinion. While our budget for trips has changed very little (we use a % of income, which obviously never goes up, lol) what we are able to get for our budget has changed significantly. We use to go during Easter (Which is still what we prefer) but got completely priced out on both flights and resort. We then switched to summer. We still make changes every year. It has meant juggling our purchases - cutting down on nights, split stays, etc. Also, with increasing crowds, we decided that things like dessert parties are important so have eliminated the dining plan or an extra night to pay for that.

We also considered DVC in the past, but it would have taken almost a decade to break even (I don't price based on rack rate I price based on sales I've been getting) and there were so many unknowns with pricing (ex - current pandemic would never have been considered) we decided against it and I'm glad we did.

In addition, if prices dropped 50% tomorrow, I would question the decision even more now because there is just so much uncertainty and locked in fees that don't exist if I invested the money instead. I always considered the DVC rental market a crutch if we bought but what is going to happen to that option now? How secure are our jobs? Will I feel comfortable travelling before a vaccine? I will still need to lock into $1000's of dollars of dues payments annually plus the upfront cost and thus lock my vacation into Disney for decades.


----------



## Galun

ELMC said:


> Small businesses are being offered loans that are 2.5x payroll (up to $10,000,000) and however much of that amount you can spend in 8 weeks is forgiven.  Simply put, there is no payback this time, it's a giveaway.  The remainder is payable after 12 months, but what do you think the default rate is going to be on those loans?  Not sure about large businesses but you can bet there are payoffs and not just loans.  This is not a fix by any means, it's triage.  And it's simultaneously woefully inadequate and yet large enough to wreak havoc on the economy.  I could be wrong here, but I think we are in for a world of hurt and a lot of people don't see it.  But they're starting to.  Oh yeah, on topic, DVC resale prices down.



Even severely affected Asian countries like South Korea and Japan don’t need to shut down their economies because they learned from SARS in 2003, and developed an infrastructure for rapid testing and detailed tracking.  Even right now they can control the spread of the virus with targeted quarantine. What the world needs is an antibody test at scale.  Then you know who is already immune and can get back to normal.  Those tests have already been invented and undergoing validation.

We started way behind, but I am confident that the wealthiest country in the world can figure it out in two months.  While we are establishing this testing infrastructure, we are also building hospital surge capacity.  Point is I am cautiously optimistic about us handling the second wave.

as for massive unemployment, I think and hope that our country, and the world for that matter, start reevaluating having their manufacturing being dependent on an intransparent country like China .  I think this is the wake up call and a lot of manufacturing will move back to the us.

I agree prices will certainly go down.  I just don’t think it will be fire sale.  Like I said, I picked up two contracts at 2015 prices.  Just ignore the market price, it’s not a true reflection on market clearing p


----------



## sethschroeder

lovethesun12 said:


> I will still need to lock into $1000's of dollars of dues payments annually plus the upfront cost and thus lock my vacation into Disney for decades.



It's 1000s only if you have a ton of points. Most people don't have 300+ points and very likely sit in the 100-200 point range which even at riveria puts you at $831 to $1662 for the MFs. 



lovethesun12 said:


> We also considered DVC in the past, but it would have taken almost a decade to break even



Everyone does their math differently but did you account for the increases you saw on rooms over time? 

You even said you were priced out of Easter. Well for DVC that really wouldn't be a thing because you have points locked in that have value and while there are some changes in point requirements it's nothing crazy. 

So yes you are happy to not have bought that's fine but I thought it was important to look at the whole picture. 

I also have zero issues saying if you are that worried you probably could sell the resale contract bought 2-3 years ago and breakeven possibly even coming out ahead. 

I have a 150 point contract I am keeping, looking at a direct contract possibly this next year, and just sold off a 30 + 50 point contracts I bought back in October/November for a profit.

So no one should be losing their shirt if they are proactive and selling now. If it came to it I would be renting my points to cover MFs.


----------



## E2ME2

Galun said:


> Even severely affected Asian countries like South Korea and Japan don’t need to shut down their economies because they learned from SARS in 2003, and developed an infrastructure for rapid testing and detailed tracking.  Even right now they can control the spread of the virus with targeted quarantine. What the world needs is an antibody test at scale.  Then you know who is already immune and can get back to normal.  Those tests have already been invented and undergoing validation.
> 
> We started way behind, but I am confident that the wealthiest country in the world can figure it out in two months.  While we are establishing this testing infrastructure, we are also building hospital surge capacity.  Point is I am cautiously optimistic about us handling the second wave.
> 
> as for massive unemployment, I think and hope that our country, and the world for that matter, start reevaluating having their manufacturing being dependent on an intransparent country like China .  I think this is the wake up call and a lot of manufacturing will move back to the us.
> 
> I agree prices will certainly go down.  I just don’t think it will be fire sale.  Like I said, I picked up two contracts at 2015 prices.  Just ignore the market price, it’s not a true reflection on market clearing p


Well said!  I like the way you're thinking.  & I share your cautious optimism !  
ET


----------



## Cousin Orville

ELMC said:


> Small businesses are being offered loans that are 2.5x payroll (up to $10,000,000) and however much of that amount you can spend in 8 weeks is forgiven.  Simply put, there is no payback this time, it's a giveaway.  The remainder is payable after 12 months, but what do you think the default rate is going to be on those loans?  Not sure about large businesses but you can bet there are payoffs and not just loans.  This is not a fix by any means, it's triage.  And it's simultaneously woefully inadequate and yet large enough to wreak havoc on the economy.  I could be wrong here, but I think we are in for a world of hurt and a lot of people don't see it.  But they're starting to.  Oh yeah, on topic, DVC resale prices down.



While the 350B to small businesses are essentially grants, 500B to large corporations are indeed loans and will require payback.  The US GDP is 20 trillion and the CARES Act just injected 2-4 trillion to float us all for the next 8 wks.  The SBA loans/grants may need to be increased from 350B and there's talk on specific industry loans (airline, cruise, etc) in a 4th bill.  But I don't think it's woefully inadequate.  It seems just right for what's needed right now. 

Whenever there is uncertainty, prices drop whether it's stocks, housing, or DVC interests.  When there is certainty back in the market, stocks will rise and people will start buying houses and DVC contracts again.  So long as we're in a stay at home order and maybe even a little after the order is lifted, DVC prices will continue to drop.  Once we get back into a semi-regular routine, DVC prices will rise again.  I agree with what some others have said that the prices were probably overinflated.  Not bubble territory, but I think it will take a while before the prices come back to where they were a couple of months ago.  If I were planning on buying, I'd look toward late May.


----------



## Cousin Orville

Galun said:


> The underlying economy is fine.  It’s a working capital / cash flow issue.  Corporations don’t let cash sit around doing nothing to plan for a contingency in case of a pandemic that shuts down the entire economy for a month or two.  Nor should they.
> 
> There is a difference between temporary cash flow / liquidity issue caused by a black swan event, which is what we have now, vs. structural underlying issue like an over levered consumer in 2008.
> 
> Anyways, differing views makes markets.  I am buying now because I think prices will stabilize.  If the resale market actually crash, I will plan to buy more.



I agree with this.  This is not the Credit Crisis of 2008 which caused a fundamental collapse in financial systems.  We're just frozen at the moment.  Can't buy or sell any products or services.  Once we get back to work, the money should start flowing again.  With enough government support to get us through theses next couple months, we should all be ok on the other side.


----------



## Galun

Cousin Orville said:


> Whenever there is uncertainty, prices drop whether it's stocks, housing, or DVC interests.  When there is certainty back in the market, stocks will rise and people will start buying houses and DVC contracts again.  So long as we're in a stay at home order and maybe even a little after the order is lifted, DVC prices will continue to drop.  Once we get back into a semi-regular routine, DVC prices will rise again.  I agree with what some others have said that the prices were probably overinflated.  Not bubble territory, but I think it will take a while before the prices come back to where they were a couple of months ago.  If I were planning on buying, I'd look toward late May.



I have a similar view on the timeline.  However I am buying now.  By late May I think there is a high probability that people start seeing light at the end of the tunnel (like China around two weeks ago when they slowly restarted their economy), and a small probability that it continues to escalate out of control.

If people see light at the end of the tunnel, with the government basically paying 2 months of payroll / rent / utilities for small businesses that employ 40% of the American workforce, and various grants / loans for big business that is contingent on retaining paychecks, I just don't think too many people will be in a panic to sell by then.  Selling DVC is not an easy source of cash, it takes like 2 months for the entire process to finish, and that's assuming you sell immediately.

So, I am buying now, when there is still a lot of fear and uncertainty, and possible desperate seller.  Again, the key is that maintenance fees has been paid, so there is no urgent cash spend required on DVC in the near future. So if you have immediate cash need, do you ask for a deferral or try to get a government backed low interest loan, or do you take a bath on DVC where the broker takes 6 - 10% and then you are getting crush on price? Or do you try to wait it out until later this year when you have to start paying 2021 maintenance fees?

I do think that if this continues until later this year, or if we fail to get the possible second wave under control in the fall, then we will start seeing fire sales.  But if that were to happen, there are much bigger problems, and the government will step in again,


----------



## Brianstl

TheGecko said:


> We are still a ways off on pricing for DVC. Back in 2014/2015 it was common to get AKL in the high 70s and low 80s.  OKW was in the 60s-70s depending on size of contract. I see it going there again and soon.
> 
> DVC, Disney and the Airlines were in pure bubble mode. The prices on flights, tickets, and points increase greatly outpaced inflation by a tune of close to 2X-3X. I was actually shocked when I saw what I was paying for my trip this June versus 6 years ago. The same accommodations for a family of 5 (room, tickets, quick service meal plan)  is running about 2K more per trip. The flights were running about 1K more (close to doubled) when I bought in January. Of course the airline tickets have cratered now which was is my fault for buying too soon.
> 
> This was not a sustainable model if an econmic slow down occured. Well it is here so let's see where it all lands.


Room rates for hotels were a huge bubble that will take years to get back where they were.  This wasn’t just a Disney bubble, but an industry wide bubble.


----------



## sethschroeder

I am not buying that room rates are going down much at all. They may run the discounts more often with more rooms for the 25-35% off or possibly with free dining more often.

To be clear I am not talking about the first 12 months after they reopen I am talking starting 12+ months whenever the first major holiday falls. On top of this only if WDW has some huge anniversary coming up that could help draw people to the parks as well.

Hopefully Disney finally does something about attendance though and reduces park capacity. If they do you could find that staying onsite is potentially required at different times.


----------



## lovethesun12

sethschroeder said:


> It's 1000s only if you have a ton of points. Most people don't have 300+ points and very likely sit in the 100-200 point range which even at riveria puts you at $831 to $1662 for the MFs.
> 
> Everyone does their math differently but did you account for the increases you saw on rooms over time?
> 
> You even said you were priced out of Easter. Well for DVC that really wouldn't be a thing because you have points locked in that have value and while there are some changes in point requirements it's nothing crazy.
> 
> So yes you are happy to not have bought that's fine but I thought it was important to look at the whole picture.
> 
> I also have zero issues saying if you are that worried you probably could sell the resale contract bought 2-3 years ago and breakeven possibly even coming out ahead.
> 
> I have a 150 point contract I am keeping, looking at a direct contract possibly this next year, and just sold off a 30 + 50 point contracts I bought back in October/November for a profit.
> 
> So no one should be losing their shirt if they are proactive and selling now. If it came to it I would be renting my points to cover MFs.


I was speaking specifically for myself; I would need to buy over 200 points for the stay we enjoy. and I did look at the big picture at the time (well, pandemic excluded . A lot of extra things I wouldn't have considered came from pouring over DVC forums and pros/cons people mentioned as well as my own thoughts.

And yes you are right about Easter, I hadn't even considered that until you mentioned it really. But a lot of other things changed in that regard if I went down that rabbit hole. Flights increased over $250/person here over just a few years. Also, If we had bought DVC, we would have bought AKV. Last summer when we saw a great discount for BCV within our budget we decided to try that and both DH and loved it. So if we locked into DVC we probably wouldn't have gotten to stay there. That said I admit I do love AKV still and would love to return. We really like resort hopping in general. Also, while we love deluxe POFQ was also a favourite. I looked at all those things before I bought in addition to taking so long to break even and the decision at the time was not difficult. 

I'm not arguing that no one should buy DVC. I'm not going to say whether it would have had a positive or negative impact on my life in the long run because I guess I still don't know. If prices did drop it is possible I would buy. I would just have to look at everything again and make a decision. But I'm defiitely not upset or anything that I didn't buy and invested instead.


----------



## bookwormde

4/5 update

New resales were less than 1/2 of what it average

SSR contracts that are being reduced are in the mid to high 90s


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 4/5 update
> 
> New resales were less than 1/2 of what it average
> 
> SSR contracts that are being reduced are in the mid to high 90s


Can you share the data you used to compile these numbers?


----------



## sethschroeder

lovethesun12 said:


> So if we locked into DVC we probably wouldn't have gotten to stay there.



I will just say BCV is actually less than Savannah View at AKV in DVC.


----------



## lovethesun12

sethschroeder said:


> I will just say BCV is actually less than Savannah View at AKV in DVC.


At 7 months out with AKV points?

If you're trying to convince me to buy DVC DARN IT IT'S WORKING!!!!! Do you know how weak my heart is for Disney? LOL

PS - are you in sales? I'll take 1 BCV, 1 AKV and throw in a POLY


----------



## holyrita

E2ME2 said:


> Can you share the data you used to compile these numbers?



I believe this has been asked before and correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think they have answered. 
I will keep checking for myself and mostly ignoring those "update" posts. The discussion here is what I'm mostly watching anyway!


----------



## glamdring269

We have been stockpiling cash for the last few years specifically to buffer against this type of situation. I didn't expect a pandemic to be the reason but fully expected some type of economic downturn to hit in 2020 (+/- a couple of years).

First, it's awesome to have an emergency fund. Life is not changing for us right now other than being bored indoors for the past few weeks. Second, assuming our jobs both survive, we're in a good spot to potentially take advantage of some opportunistic pricing. Either way, this situation has shown me that there is never going to be a time that I don't have an emergency fund going forward. Hopefully our corporations learn the same lesson.


----------



## E2ME2

sethschroeder said:


> I will just say BCV is actually less than Savannah View at AKV in DVC.


except for a Studio in September 2021 (AKV-SV is 2 points cheaper than BCV)


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

sethschroeder said:


> I will just say BCV is actually less than Savannah View at AKV in DVC.



lol - it is at times and over an entire year is a tiny bit less but close enough to be considered the same IMO.   Of course BCV has little in views of great distinction so a better "view" comparison is to AKV standard views and it blows BCV out of the water there.


----------



## sethschroeder

KAT4DISNEY said:


> lol - it is at times and over an entire year is a tiny bit less but close enough to be considered the same IMO.   Of course BCV has little in views of great distinction so a better "view" comparison is to AKV standard views and it blows BCV out of the water there.



Oh no doubt I was more just pointing it out that in that case you could actually get by a tad cheaper at BCV if that resort was on your list as possibly better than AKV.


----------



## LAX

glamdring269 said:


> We have been stockpiling cash for the last few years specifically to buffer against this type of situation. I didn't expect a pandemic to be the reason but fully expected some type of economic downturn to hit in 2020 (+/- a couple of years).
> 
> First, it's awesome to have an emergency fund. Life is not changing for us right now other than being bored indoors for the past few weeks. Second, assuming our jobs both survive, we're in a good spot to potentially take advantage of some opportunistic pricing. Either way, this situation has shown me that there is never going to be a time that I don't have an emergency fund going forward. *Hopefully our corporations learn the same lesson.*



They won't because it's the shareholders (and taxpayers if they get bailed out) that suffer.

LAX


----------



## poofyo101

ROFR report came back and even more buy backs for march than previous months....


----------



## bookwormde

4/6 update

New resales increased from 4/5 but continue below average

one of the large re-sellers has 6 100 pt BLT sale pending contracts listed at $135 or slightly less


----------



## OSUZorba

bookwormde said:


> 4/6 update
> 
> New resales increased from 4/5 but continue below average
> 
> one of the large re-sellers has 6 100 pt BLT sale pending contracts listed at $135 or slightly less


By resales do you mean postings or pending sells?


----------



## bookwormde

OSUZorba said:


> By resales do you mean postings or pending sells?


new resales are active listings only


----------



## suebeelin

LAX said:


> How much was VGC back then?
> 
> LAX


 Not sure... probably under $100.


----------



## lovethesun12

suebeelin said:


> Not sure... probably under $100.


*faints*


----------



## bookwormde

poofyo101 said:


> ROFR report came back and even more buy backs for march than previous months....


almost 30k in sold out resort points sold direct in March so that aligns


----------



## poofyo101

bookwormde said:


> almost 30k in sold out resort points sold direct in March so that aligns


I think the resort points sold is one month behind the ROFR month.


----------



## bookwormde

poofyo101 said:


> I think the resort points sold is one month behind the ROFR month.


it depends if DVD had the resort/month points in inventory or had to ROFR them


----------



## bookwormde

4/7 update

New resales at about 50% of typical

4/8 update

New resales are significantly above average

This is primarily from on of the 2 largest re-sellers posting abut 4x what is typical

While no hard data, it appears that this may be from a delay in posting showing up on 4/8 since some are showing up initially as pending

more OKWs in the 80s are showing up


----------



## DisMomKY

bookwormde said:


> 4/7 update
> 
> New resales at about 50% of typical
> 
> 4/8 update
> 
> New resales are significantly above average
> 
> This is primarily from on of the 2 largest re-sellers posting abut 4x what is typical
> 
> While no hard data, it appears that this may be from a delay in posting showing up on 4/8 since some are showing up initially as pending
> 
> more OKWs in the 80s are showing up


FWIW, we bought AKL in February and it’s at ROFR now with the new buyer at more pp than we paid. Granted we got a deal I thought wouldn’t pass ROFR but either way I’m happy with it.


----------



## KayKayJS

Love watching this thread... Would like to get a deal on Aulani. It seems like that one may drop more due to extra travel costs to visit - flying to Hawaii and eventual maintenance fees. I don't really have a desire to own anywhere else other than maybe VGC or Vero. Vero would have to be dirt cheap for me to buy though because of maintenance fees.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Just got an email from another resale company dropping their commission %.  It is going to take more than that For most buyers in the current economic situation.


----------



## White Sox

I just started following because if the prices really do drop I might actually buy. Does anyone have any resources to see what the typical price points were before COVID?


----------



## CastAStone

White Sox said:


> I just started following because if the prices really do drop I might actually buy. Does anyone have any resources to see what the typical price points were before COVID?


https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-march-2020/


----------



## TraderSamWDW

CastAStone said:


> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-march-2020/


Interesting, most are basically at where they were of march last year except Poly and Boardwalk, which are both down over 10 percent


----------



## CastAStone

TraderSamWDW said:


> Interesting, most are basically at where they were of march last year except Poly and Boardwalk, which are both down over 10 percent


Yeah, Grand Flo, BLT, and OKW have all come down from mid year highs though.


----------



## BrianLo

Even though the brokers have a lot on the line that "now is the perfect time to buy", it really is a poor decision to do so.

The worst case as a buyer is that the contracts do not drop considerably. There really is no scenario where the contracts increase in price. So between the uncertainty of losing points over the next year and the strong probability prices will slowly drift downwards, just wait.

Multiple new resorts have not weathered a recession, I imagine those will be the most likely to fall over time.


----------



## TraderSamWDW

BrianLo said:


> Even though the brokers have a lot on the line that "now is the perfect time to buy", it really is a poor decision to do so.
> 
> The worst case as a buyer is that the contracts do not drop considerably. There really is no scenario where the contracts increase in price. So between the uncertainty of losing points over the next year and the strong probability prices will slowly drift downwards, just wait.
> 
> Multiple new resorts have not weathered a recession, I imagine those will be the most likely to fall over time.


Exactly, which pretty much makes now the worst time to buy.  Which means contracts have to come down or stay on the market a long time.

There is minimal upside (maybe things recover magically and you end up paying 5 percent more - its possible - but so is winning the lottery 3 times in a row) or things go on like this, you wait and pay 20-30 percent less.....


----------



## bookwormde

4/9 update

New resales count was about 50% of average


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 4/7 update
> 
> New resales at about 50% of typical
> 
> 4/8 update
> 
> New resales are significantly above average
> 
> This is primarily from on of the 2 largest re-sellers posting abut 4x what is typical
> 
> While no hard data, it appears that this may be from a delay in posting showing up on 4/8 since some are showing up initially as pending
> 
> more OKWs in the 80s are showing up


BookWormDE; what was the average price for any new SSR listings ?? (Those in the 175-250 point range)??
ET


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> BookWormDE; what was the average price for any new SSR listings ?? (Those in the 175-250 point range)??
> ET


from the 1st to the the 9th the overall new average is $103

For the same time frame for 175 to 250 pt contracts are about $97


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> from the 1st to the the 9th the overall new average is $103
> 
> For the same time frame for 175 to 250 pt contracts are about $97


Thanks !
Still feeling good about my SSR contract.


----------



## Deploraboo

I tried to sell some AAPL shares this week at early Feb prices.  No one bought them.


----------



## DisMomKY

I’ve been wanting to buy at VGF for sooo long but couldn’t stomach the 180s for points I see everywhere. I thinking in this climate I can possible start offering less on those contracts and maybe snag one  I’m now debating on doing that. We are in the process of selling our AKL contract so we will have some extra cash for it besides our normal savings


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 4/9 update
> 
> New resales count was about 50% of average


I just got an email blast from one of the DVC resellers, and saw 2- SSR contracts listed at $90.
One had 100 Points, none available until 2021, the other was for 260 Points, all available for 2020 & 2021.
There were a few others at $93PP, and a couple at $95PP.
ET


----------



## E2ME2

DisMomKY said:


> I’ve been wanting to buy at VGF for sooo long but couldn’t stomach the 180s for points I see everywhere. I thinking in this climate I can possible start offering less on those contracts and maybe snag one  I’m now debating on doing that. We are in the process of selling our AKL contract so we will have some extra cash for it besides our normal savings


Just saw one listed at $155PP-150 Points -"Sale Pending" (email blast today)
Online at another broker - I see 2 VGFs at $148PP- (230Pts & 160 Pts) - both "Sale Pending"


----------



## DisMomKY

E2ME2 said:


> Just saw one listed at $155PP-150 Points -"Sale Pending" (email blast today)
> Online at another broker - I see 2 VGFs at $148PP- (230Pts & 160 Pts) - both "Sale Pending"


I’d love to find one In that range, but then I think what if I wait this out a couple months, will I be able to get one in the 130s


----------



## FireflyTrance

I plan to wait it out, the prices are going to move slowly downward. I am hoping for a good deal this summer. If there aren't any points available until the 2021 UY I think that is actually better, since it's unlikely I will take another Disney trip this year.


----------



## DisMomKY

FireflyTrance said:


> I plan to wait it out, the prices are going to move slowly downward. I am hoping for a good deal this summer. If there aren't any points available until the 2021 UY I think that is actually better, since it's unlikely I will take another Disney trip this year.


That’s actually what I’m looking for as I don’t want to pay 2020 dues


----------



## OSUZorba

Any thoughts on why BWV is dropping so much more than the others? That is the one I've always thought about, but don't love the 2042 expiration. That only gets my daughter to 26, so (hopefully) no taking grandkids.


----------



## Sandisw

OSUZorba said:


> Any thoughts on why BWV is dropping so much more than the others? That is the one I've always thought about, but don't love the 2042 expiration. That only gets my daughter to 26, so (hopefully) no taking grandkids.



The demand is down for sure,  I sold one in October within a very short time...a few days...for almost $5 more than what my current one will be sold for, assuming buyers send back paperwork,

Its been on the market for 6 weeks.  I did have a buyer a month ago, but they backed out...

Still, given the lower price, below most ROFR threshold, I thought it would go much faster,


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

DisMomKY said:


> I’ve been wanting to buy at VGF for sooo long but couldn’t stomach the 180s for points I see everywhere. I thinking in this climate I can possible start offering less on those contracts and maybe snag one  I’m now debating on doing that. We are in the process of selling our AKL contract so we will have some extra cash for it besides our normal savings



How long?  I could have bought VGF a year ago for $155/pt.  It was just summer/fall that prices started to increase there and there are now a contracts showing up for less than that $180/pt.  I've seen a couple in the high 160's recently.


----------



## DisMomKY

KAT4DISNEY said:


> How long?  I could have bought VGF a year ago for $155/pt.  It was just summer/fall that prices started to increase there and there are now a contracts showing up for less than that $180/pt.  I've seen a couple in the high 160's recently.


I’ve been not wanting to spend over $140 a point. So it’s always been out of reach and likely will stay that way


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

DisMomKY said:


> I’ve been not wanting to spend over $140 a point. So it’s always been out of reach and likely will stay that way



I think the early price for existing DVC members was $145/pt?  I feel like there was a time where a few people bought resale in the $130's but that's been awhile.  You never know unless you put in the offer.  Who knows in a couple more months what it'll look like.


----------



## Matty B13

KAT4DISNEY said:


> I think the early price for existing DVC members was $145/pt?  I feel like there was a time where a few people bought resale in the $130's but that's been awhile.  You never know unless you put in the offer.  Who knows in a couple more months what it'll look like.


I think that was in 2016 that VGF could be had for $130/point because that is when we bought in at $145/point resale and we were jealous of the people who could get such a good deal.


----------



## raysmd

curious about VGF, do you think prices can dip below $135? I would love to buy around $130 or even lower. wishful thinking?


----------



## BrianLo

raysmd said:


> curious about VGF, do you think prices can dip below $135? I would love to buy around $130 or even lower. wishful thinking?



I don't think so at all. That's also the resort I'm gravitating towards and waiting for the Fall to evaluate. I think a 20-30% decline across the board for every resort is a strong possibility.

VGC was going for as low as 80$ during the recession, so frankly I don't think talking about VGF hitting 120$ is unrealistic, which is maybe even the range I'm holding out for.


----------



## poofyo101

raysmd said:


> curious about VGF, do you think prices can dip below $135? I would love to buy around $130 or even lower. wishful thinking?


I had a VGF bought back lower than 130 plus dues and closing bought back a few weeks ago. Not sure what the threshold right now is for VGF.


----------



## raysmd

you mean, Disney exercised their ROFR?




poofyo101 said:


> I had a VGF bought back lower than 130 plus dues and closing bought back a few weeks ago. Not sure what the threshold right now is for VGF.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> I had a VGF bought back lower than 130 plus dues and closing bought back a few weeks ago. Not sure what the threshold right now is for VGF.


A moving target.

www.dvcresalemarket.com had a little over 8000 points for sale right on Wednesday night when I pulled a spreadsheet of all their listings together for myself. That's 0.35% of all the points they sold for the resort. No other resort is even half that. Yes it's one site but it's indicative. 

For comparison:

*Property**% of all points ever sold for that resort that are for resale now on **DVC Resale market*VGF0.35%BLT0.16%PVB0.16%CCV0.15%BCV0.13%OKW0.11%SSR0.10%BWV0.10%AKV0.07%BRV0.05%Riviera0.00%


----------



## BeachNut

CastAStone said:


> A moving target.
> 
> www.dvcresalemarket.com had a little over 8000 points for sale right on Wednesday night when I pulled a spreadsheet of all their listings together for myself. That's 0.35% of all the points they sold for the resort. No other resort is even half that. Yes it's one site but it's indicative.
> 
> For comparison:
> 
> *Property**% of all points ever sold for that resort that are for resale now on **DVC Resale market*VGF0.35%BLT0.16%PVB0.16%CCV0.15%BCV0.13%OKW0.11%SSR0.10%BWV0.10%AKV0.07%BRV0.05%Riviera0.00%


I’ve noticed there are very few BRV points for sale. Why is that? Is it because they’re already cheap?


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

BeachNut said:


> I’ve noticed there are very few BRV points for sale. Why is that? Is it because they’re already cheap?



It's a very small resort.  Onsite at WDW only VGF is smaller.


----------



## bookwormde

4/10 update

newly posted resales were about 25% above average

This appears to be from 2 large blocks of points

1000 BCV (5x200)
960 SSR (4x240)


----------



## MICKIMINI

There is a VGF for $152 I saw this morning - they are slowly drifting downward.


----------



## BeachNut

KAT4DISNEY said:


> It's a very small resort.  Onsite at WDW only VGF is smaller.


I hear you - but VGF is smaller and there are many, many resale listings for that right now.


----------



## CastAStone

BeachNut said:


> I hear you - but VGF is smaller and there are many, many resale listings for that right now.


The four most recent resorts have the highest percent of points for sale. I imagine that’s buyers remorse. BRV has been open for like 20 years, so that’s a lot less of an issue.


----------



## glamdring269

BRV owners are also likely a slightly different breed on average than owners of other resorts.

Signed,
BRV Owner


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> A moving target.
> 
> www.dvcresalemarket.com had a little over 8000 points for sale right on Wednesday night when I pulled a spreadsheet of all their listings together for myself. That's 0.35% of all the points they sold for the resort. No other resort is even half that. Yes it's one site but it's indicative.
> 
> For comparison:
> 
> *Property**% of all points ever sold for that resort that are for resale now on **DVC Resale market*VGF0.35%BLT0.16%PVB0.16%CCV0.15%BCV0.13%OKW0.11%SSR0.10%BWV0.10%AKV0.07%BRV0.05%Riviera0.00%


Great data, though I think the numbers may be off by a factor of 0.1

Here is what I got from the other big re-seller (30,544 points)

AKV 0.041%
BLT 0.031%
BCV 0.068%
BWV 0.030%
BRV 0.091%
CCV 0.103%
OKW 0.024%
POLY 0.124%
SSR 0.052%
VGF 0.086%


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> Great data, though I think the numbers may be off by a factor of 0.1
> 
> Here is what I got from the other big re-seller (30,544 points)
> 
> AKV 0.041%
> BLT 0.031%
> BCV 0.068%
> BWV 0.030%
> BRV 0.091%
> CCV 0.103%
> OKW 0.024%
> POLY 0.124%
> SSR 0.052%
> VGF 0.056%


If I was unclear there were over 8000 VGF points.  That’s 0.3% of the ~2.5m VGF points sold.

Interesting the data is so different at this other seller.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> If I was unclear there were over 8000 VGF points.  That’s 0.3% of the ~2.5m VGF points sold.
> 
> Interesting the data is so different at this other seller.


Thanks for the clarification, the numbers  make sense to me now


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

BeachNut said:


> I hear you - but VGF is smaller and there are many, many resale listings for that right now.



As mentioned there's a big difference in how long those 2 resorts have been around.  Most owners at BRV would have paid off any loans they may have had whereas there likely are some that are still financed with VGF and may be tired of the payments.  Also when BRV was sold they had higher minimums to buy in so less total members there.  I have a multi site POS from 2016 that has a chart indicating 7686 members at BRV and 10141 at VGF even though VGF is smaller.  Also from watching the resale market BRV just has never had a lot for sale at a time even when it's pricing was identical to BCV and BRV a decade ago.  Apparently a loyal bunch of owners!


----------



## OSUZorba

CastAStone said:


> The four most recent resorts have the highest percent of points for sale. I imagine that’s buyers remorse. BRV has been open for like 20 years, so that’s a lot less of an issue.


It might also be that people who bought when they were young families 20 years ago are more secure financially than young families buying in the last few years. Most because the first set has had 20 more years to develop resources and are likely empty nesters.


----------



## bookwormde

4/11 update

new resale contracts were less than 50% of usual


----------



## DisMomKY

bookwormde said:


> 4/11 update
> 
> new resales were less than 50% f usual


I have had 2 contracts I’m selling go under contract at asking price in 3 days or less last Sunday and then yesterday


----------



## bookwormde

DisMomKY said:


> I have had 2 contracts I’m selling go under contract at asking price in 3 days or less last Sunday and then yesterday


Yes sales are amazingly brisk given the circumstances if the contract is offered at a competitive price.
I am guessing that direct sales shut down is impacting this at a level


----------



## DisMomKY

bookwormde said:


> Yes sales are amazingly brisk given the circumstances if the contract is offered at a competitive price.
> I am guessing that direct sales shut down is impacting this at a level


I agree. We have one AKL at ROFR at 118 pp and then our SSR we are signing the offer now at  110 pp but it has some banked points


----------



## lmhall2000

We were in the market to buy last December, but decided to relocate- so waited- CV has cancelled our relo- so, we are looking at properties again- if you had 25-30k and wanted a property with 2 BR availability- is there one I should keep my eye on? Looking for 125-200 points...


----------



## Aussie RJ

lmhall2000 said:


> We were in the market to buy last December, but decided to relocate- so waited- CV has cancelled our relo- so, we are looking at properties again- if you had 25-30k and wanted a property with 2 BR availability- is there one I should keep my eye on? Looking for 125-200 points...


BLT. Most cost effective, within one of the best locations. The 2 bedrooms are very nice also.


----------



## bookwormde

4/12 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 25% of average

seeing some larger VB contracts both new and pending in the high 50s even though newly listed VB contracts have been limited


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> 4/12 update
> 
> newly posted resale contracts at about 25% of average
> 
> seeing some larger VB contracts both new and pending in the high 50s even though newly listed VB contracts have been limited


I want to make sure I'm reading your posts correctly - you mean the number of new contracts posted are 25% less than the new ones that would normally be posted?


----------



## bookwormde

lovethesun12 said:


> I want to make sure I'm reading your posts correctly - you mean the number of new contracts posted are 25% less than the new ones that would normally be posted?


yes


----------



## sethschroeder

I would be interested in numbers on how many people sell a contract to buy a new one both before and after the latest rounds of restrictions.

Those who wanted to swap out a older resale contract for RIV likely already did it and now with DVC Direct closed you have people not selling for possibly other sold out resorts as well?

Then on top of all of this obviously the current situation probably has people thinking they will get less for their contract than waiting out the pandemic.


----------



## glamdring269

I just think it's too early to see any impact. Government intervention has helped keep a lot of folks afloat for now and are constantly saying we will be back open for business in the next couple of weeks. There is 0 reason to panic for most as of today.

That changes as the "return to normal" goal posts continue to move further out, especially if government assistance wanes.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

glamdring269 said:


> I just think it's too early to see any impact. Government intervention has helped keep a lot of folks afloat for now and are constantly saying we will be back open for business in the next couple of weeks. There is 0 reason to panic for most as of today.
> 
> That changes as the "return to normal" goal posts continue to move further out, especially if government assistance wanes.



I agree as far as the economy goes. But bookings are going to be hard in 2021 and 2022 due to all the bankings. I feel like the best play is to wait on buying resale for around 6 months and see where everything is at. A stripped contract for the cheapest price possible is better than a loaded contract right now IMO.


----------



## Sandisw

sethschroeder said:


> I would be interested in numbers on how many people sell a contract to buy a new one both before and after the latest rounds of restrictions.
> 
> Those who wanted to swap out a older resale contract for RIV likely already did it and now with DVC Direct closed you have people not selling for possibly other sold out resorts as well?
> 
> Then on top of all of this obviously the current situation probably has people thinking they will get less for their contract than waiting out the pandemic.



I am selling BWV and will be replacing it with BLT.  It’s a delayed closing until after my June trip.  I did put it on the market before this started, but I ended up with $4.50 less per point than I sold my other BWV in October,...although I still made a great profit as I bought for $53.

My hope is that by summer, BLT will have come down enough to close the gap between the two. Although, I may only replace it with 100 points vs. the 150 I sold,


----------



## glamdring269

MonkeyKnifeFight said:


> I agree as far as the economy goes. But bookings are going to be hard in 2021 and 2022 due to all the bankings. I feel like the best play is to wait on buying resale for around 6 months and see where everything is at. A stripped contract for the cheapest price possible is better than a loaded contract right now IMO.



You may be right in terms of grabbing a stripped contract now. We're planning to head back in October 2021 and will put that reservation in the minute the window opens. No intention of returning until 2023 so if I can get a steal on a stripped contract with that would be perfect.


----------



## poofyo101

Issue is stripped contracts sometimes harder to make through ROFR due to the price point.


----------



## bookwormde

poofyo101 said:


> Issue is stripped contracts sometimes harder to make through ROFR due to the price point.


That can be true though it is important t remember that DVD has to refill those points from other contract that it owns or has owned that at the same resort and UY 

DVD can not (legally) just create new points. I do suspect that DVD does some point year sliding.


----------



## bookwormde

4/13 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average


----------



## BWV Dreamin

bookwormde said:


> 4/13 update
> 
> newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average


What site?


----------



## bookwormde

BWV Dreamin said:


> What site?


I use 5 sites that I can time or sequence track


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> I use 5 sites that I can time or sequence track


I'm curious for your opinion and reasoning because I have appreciated your posts  Do you think less contracts being listed plays into the theory prices might drop, go against the theory, or just an observance with no real indication?


----------



## bookwormde

lovethesun12 said:


> I'm curious for your opinion and reasoning because I have appreciated your posts  Do you think less contracts being listed plays into the theory prices might drop, go against the theory, or just an observance with no real indication?


I think that the fact that there has not been a flood of new contracts come on the market has kept the market orderly in as much as there are adequate buyers at a moderately reduced price.

While there are individual resort variations from my original guesses the rate of drop is in line so far. If buyers back away or wait and or more need to sell the price decline could accelerate, but as of now I do not see anything in the short term indicate that will happen.

My perception is that the economic impact has been less of a factor than I expected with the frustration of point loss and not knowing when DVC will re-open and how bad the point overload and reservation challenges will be causing the greater impact on the sellers side

On the buying side I am still trying to figure out how much direct sales being shut down which I did not expect and resale being the only game in town is having on the number of buyers


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> I think that the fact that there has not been a flood of new contracts come on the market has kept the market orderly in as much as there are adequate buyers at a moderately reduced price.
> 
> While there are individual resort variations from my original guesses the rate of drop is in line so far. If buyers back away or wait and or more need to sell the price decline could accelerate, but as of now I do not see anything in the short term indicate that will happen.
> 
> My perception is that the economic impact has been less of a factor than I expected with the frustration of point loss and not knowing when DVC will re-open and how bad the point overload and reservation challenges will be causing the greater impact on the sellers side
> 
> On the buying side I am still trying to figure out how much direct sales being shut down which I did not expect and resale being the only game in town is having on the number of buyers


Thanks! That makes a lot of sense =)


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

bookwormde said:


> My perception is that the economic impact has been less of a factor than I expected with the frustration of point loss and not knowing when DVC will re-open and how bad the point overload and reservation challenges will be causing the greater impact on the sellers side


Luxury items like sports cars and timeshares are always going to be a lagging item that people only sell when they have to.  Then you have to exhaust the buyers that have cash and will jump on something slightly cheaper than it was a month ago.

If this turns into a real recession you won't see the bottom of prices for a while.  I think it has been mentioned that resale prices bottomed in 2012 during the last recession?  That was a couple years after the stock market hit it's lowest point.


----------



## igrsod

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Luxury items like sports cars and timeshares are always going to be a lagging item that people only sell when they have to.  Then you have to exhaust the buyers that have cash and will jump on something slightly cheaper than it was a month ago.
> 
> If this turns into a real recession you won't see the bottom of prices for a while.  I think it has been mentioned that resale prices bottomed in 2012 during the last recession?  That was a couple years after the stock market hit it's lowest point.


That's exactly what my husband said today when we were discussing resale prices.  I am seeing some slight decrease in prices on newly listed contracts... but he keeps telling me to be patient and wait.... it will drop much lower in a year or so.


----------



## CastAStone

igrsod said:


> That's exactly what my husband said today when we were discussing resale prices.  I am seeing some slight decrease in prices on newly listed contracts... but he keeps telling me to be patient and wait.... it will drop much lower in a year or so.


Curious too about what’s listed and what’s selling. Fidelity shows several OKW “sale pendings” in the high $70s, but everything still listed is much, much higher. It’s going to take some time for people to drop their asking price, in most cases it’s not like they owe anything for the next 7 months.


----------



## Sandisw

CastAStone said:


> Curious too about what’s listed and what’s selling. Fidelity shows several OKW “sale pendings” in the high $70s, but everything still listed is much, much higher. It’s going to take some time for people to drop their asking price, in most cases it’s not like they owe anything for the next 7 months.



Just agreed to $115.50 for my BWV contract,  Sold one the same size with similar points for $120 in October.


----------



## Matty B13

CastAStone said:


> Curious too about what’s listed and what’s selling. Fidelity shows several OKW “sale pendings” in the high $70s, but everything still listed is much, much higher. It’s going to take some time for people to drop their asking price, in most cases it’s not like they owe anything for the next 7 months.


Fidelity's website isn't the most up to date website most days.  Some of those listings could be from months ago.


----------



## Heather07438

igrsod said:


> That's exactly what my husband said today when we were discussing resale prices.  I am seeing some slight decrease in prices on newly listed contracts... but he keeps telling me to be patient and wait.... it will drop much lower in a year or so.


We're going to be patient too and watch the next 6 months, then in the fall decide whether to wait longer or not.


----------



## DougEMG

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Luxury items like sports cars and timeshares are always going to be a lagging item that people only sell when they have to.  Then you have to exhaust the buyers that have cash and will jump on something slightly cheaper than it was a month ago.
> 
> If this turns into a real recession you won't see the bottom of prices for a while.  I think it has been mentioned that resale prices bottomed in 2012 during the last recession?  That was a couple years after the stock market hit it's lowest point.



That is exactly what happened last time there was a financial crisis, prices hit their lows a couple of years after the event. Early on the new sellers are those trying to get out before the prices fall.  Not until people are desperate and need to sell combined with  a lack of buyers will prices drop significantly.  So it is way to early to be expecting any significant price drops.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

bookwormde said:


> 4/13 update
> 
> newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average



I've either missed or forgotten where and what timeframe your average comes from?


----------



## bookwormde

The baseline is what I was seeing over the 6 months before C-19


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

bookwormde said:


> The baseline is what I was seeing over the 6 months before C-19



Thank you.


----------



## bookwormde

4/14 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average 

It is interesting though understandable that while most months are reasonably distributed, there are a lot  less September and October contracts entering the market


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

bookwormde said:


> 4/14 update
> 
> newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average
> 
> It is interesting though understandable that while most months are reasonably distributed, there are a lot  less September and October contracts entering the market



I think this is always the case.  I have an Oct UY and they are hard to come by.  

I think I've read Sept may be even slightly harder to find.


----------



## wallawallakids

4luv2cdisney said:


> I think this is always the case.  I have an Oct UY and they are hard to come by.
> 
> I think I've read Sept may be even slightly harder to find.


I am sure this is obvious, but if you don't mind telling me, why is that? Thank you.


----------



## CastAStone

At a lot of resorts there just aren’t that many fall UYs:

https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018


----------



## wallawallakids

CastAStone said:


> At a lot of resorts there just aren’t that many fall UYs:
> 
> https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018



Thank you!


----------



## holyrita

What I find interesting looking at that distribution chart is December and February having the highest percentages. 

If you want to be careful about when you can bank your points, you would likely not want to book during the fall with a December UY. With a February UY not during the holidays. 

Am I interpreting this incorrectly? Sept/Oct seem perfect for me because I don't travel to Disney during the summer months.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

holyrita said:


> What I find interesting looking at that distribution chart is December and February having the highest percentages.
> 
> If you want to be careful about when you can bank your points, you would likely not want to book during the fall with a December UY. With a February UY not during the holidays.
> 
> Am I interpreting this incorrectly? Sept/Oct seem perfect for me because I don't travel to Disney during the summer months.



AKV was sold with an inordinately high percentage of December contracts.  They stuck on that UY for a long time for some reason.  And BLT was inordinately high with Feb - same thing where DVC just stuck to that forever.  If buyers weren't asking for something different those were the defaults for a lot of the sales time.    OKW was really the main one where they really kept things even and the rest have been a mix - some relatively even and then others like AKV and BLT being very skewed.


----------



## bookwormde

4/15 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 125% of average 

I will be posting some mid month interim data summaries today


----------



## bookwormde

Mid month resorts with significant declines between 3/31 and 4/15

Format: resort 3/20 to 3/31 average 4/1 to 4/15 average

AUL     97     93
BCV   150    141
CCV   150    147
GFV   170    165
HH      76      74
SSR    105    102
VB       68      62


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31 and 4/15 for each resort reduced contracts  

The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Reduced

........3/31       4/15     

AKV       110         109    

AUL        97           93            

BLT         144         146    

BCV        138         137      

BWV      118         118

BRV        100         ND       

CCV        148         150      

VGF       168         168    

HH          74           74     

OKW      95           94    

POLY      143         144      

SS           102         98       

VB          62           62


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31 and 4/15 for each resort pending contracts

The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Pending

.........3/31       4/15          

AKV       109         108        

AUL        96           97          

BLT         137         141       

BCV        140         138        

BWV      118         121       

BRV        98           98          

CCV        147         147      

VGF       164         163       

HH          75           76        

OKW      93           93      

POLY      146         146        

SS           101         101      

VB          71           67


----------



## Heather07438

Hmm, not much difference yet.  It will be an interesting comparison 4 and 8 months from now.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

holyrita said:


> What I find interesting looking at that distribution chart is December and February having the highest percentages.
> 
> If you want to be careful about when you can bank your points, you would likely not want to book during the fall with a December UY. With a February UY not during the holidays.
> 
> Am I interpreting this incorrectly? Sept/Oct seem perfect for me because I don't travel to Disney during the summer months.



Sept/Oct are ideal UYs for those of us who will never go in summer.  I have an Oct UY.  It is perfect for my travel habits but it's not easy to find resale "deals".  

DVC now issues direct contracts in any UY (so instead of re-selling only ROFR'd Feb UY as Feb UY they can resell it as any UY)  I honestly don't know how that all works, but I'm guessing the distribution charts we now have will be useless in 10 years.  Who knows what the numbers will be.  Crossing my fingers for more Oct UY contracts!  lol


----------



## sky2823

We have September as well and it’s perfect.  

We stay clear of the parks during the summer and prefer fall/winter traveling.


----------



## sky2823

The only drawback with september I can see is sometimes Labor Day straddles aug/sept if that is a date you are interested in traveling


----------



## BRVDVC2020

This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.


----------



## kbrazieltx

We have a small AUG UY at CCV 75 Points and the price from when we went under Contract in December 2019 is actually close to same they are now. Due to a June trip for Current Owners we cannot close until then.  I have been keeping an eye on prices but so far nothing is worth losing my deposit over.


----------



## Turn the Page

BRVDVC2020 said:


> This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.



I belive the issue is if you have a Dec UY and you book a trip in Nov and have to cancel you don't have time to reschedule or bank the points before they expire.  That is why it is usually recommended to have a UY several months after you normally travel meaning if you normally travel in the spring or summer a Dec UY would be good whereas if you often travel in fall a Feb/March UY might be better.  I think you have to bank points 4 months before they expire meaning a Dec UY needs to bank in August which means any trip after that that goes sideways you can no longer cancel and bank the points.


----------



## BRVDVC2020

Turn the Page said:


> I belive the issue is if you have a Dec UY and you book a trip in Nov and have to cancel you don't have time to reschedule or bank the points before they expire.  That is why it is usually recommended to have a UY several months after you normally travel meaning if you normally travel in the spring or summer a Dec UY would be good whereas if you often travel in fall a Feb/March UY might be better.  I think you have to bank points 4 months before they expire meaning a Dec UY needs to bank in August which means any trip after that that goes sideways you can no longer cancel and bank the points.


Ahhhhhh..... ok, now I get it!!! So just cancellation can be an issue. That makes sense! Thank you for the explanation!!!


----------



## emilymad

BRVDVC2020 said:


> This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.



Other than this year, we have found borrowing our points into the current year was an easier way to have a December UY make sense.  For example, we are still in our December 2019 UY so if we wanted to travel this year we would borrow our 2020 points into 2020.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

emilymad said:


> Other than this year, we have found borrowing our points into the current year was an easier way to have a December UY make sense.  For example, we are still in our December 2019 UY so if we wanted to travel this year we would borrow our 2020 points into 2020.



Traveling in Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov with a Dec UY is risky due to no time to reschedule should you need to cancel. Technically banking / borrowing is even more risky because you cannot at any point bank those points. So, you'd NEED to reschedule in the same UY or rent them out.

Basically, the earlier in your UY you travel the better.

I have an Oct UY because we typically would not travel June-Sept.
Oct - May travel gives me the opportunity to bank my points should I need to cancel my plans.  And gives me the easier to book summer months to rent them out should I miss my banking window or have my points in holding, etc.


----------



## Matty B13

DVC Resale Market just had 67 contracts pass ROFR this week, with no contracts ROFR'd.


----------



## BRVDVC2020

4luv2cdisney said:


> Traveling in Aug/Sept/Oct/Nov with a Dec UY is risky due to no time to reschedule should you need to cancel. Technically banking / borrowing is even more risky because you cannot at any point bank those points. So, you'd NEED to reschedule in the same UY or rent them out.
> 
> Basically, the earlier in your UY you travel the better.
> 
> I have an Oct UY because we typically would not travel June-Sept.
> Oct - May travel gives me the opportunity to bank my points should I need to cancel my plans.  And gives me the easier to book summer months to rent them out should I miss my banking window or have my points in holding, etc.


ahhh...makes total sense! Thank you so much.


----------



## Vkothari916

CastAStone said:


> If I was unclear there were over 8000 VGF points.  That’s 0.3% of the ~2.5m VGF points sold.
> 
> Interesting the data is so different at this other seller.


Where can you find the information on total number of points sold by resort? Was curious how many BLT points were sold total. Thanks.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

BRVDVC2020 said:


> This is totally a newbie question...... I just made an offer on BRV with a December use year. For the life of me.... I cannot grasp why this is a good thing or a bad thing?? To me... it just means the points are deposited in December. I'm sure I'm missing something, but as long as I book 11 months prior to for BRV or 7 months prior to for the other resorts (assuming they have availability) then what would be the issue? Can anyone explain? Thank you.



This thread on Understanding UY's provides good information:  https://www.disboards.com/threads/understanding-use-year-updated-march-10-2019.1942668/


----------



## bookwormde

Vkothari916 said:


> Where can you find the information on total number of points sold by resort? Was curious how many BLT points were sold total. Thanks.


Disney never published the actual number but here is what is generally calculated  *5,732,762*


----------



## bookwormde

4/16 update

newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average


----------



## DisMomKY

bookwormde said:


> 4/16 update
> 
> newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average


I’m interested to see when prices are going to decrease. I had my eye on a BWV contracted that was posted yesterday and went back to look at it today and it’s already pending. I have an AKL 100 pt I’m selling that just passed ROFR (in like 2 weeks) at $118 per point and a SSR sitting at ROFR at $113 per point. I bought both of those in Jan/Feb and decided to sell to get one contract with one home resort and I’m selling both at higher than I gave for them, breaking even after the broker commission.


----------



## bookwormde

DisMomKY said:


> I’m interested to see when prices are going to decrease. I had my eye on a BWV contracted that was posted yesterday and went back to look at it today and it’s already pending. I have an AKL 100 pt I’m selling that just passed ROFR (in like 2 weeks) at $118 per point and a SSR sitting at ROFR at $113 per point. I bought both of those in Jan/Feb and decided to sell to get one contract with one home resort and I’m selling both at higher than I gave for them, breaking even after the broker commission.


selling prices have declined, but the drops have been limited, I expect at this point for the decreases over the next few month to go down 3 to 5% per month


----------



## DisMomKY

bookwormde said:


> selling prices have declined, but the drops have been limited, I expect at this point for the decreases over the next few month to go down 3 to 5% per month


Thanks! I’m really watching BWV and BCV. We were discussing MK area resorts but my heart is in the boardwalk area and the pool at BC is amazing! My husband and I were talking about expiration dates too and our kids will be 27and 24  in 2041 so we think the 2042 expiration date will be fine


----------



## Galun

Galun said:


> I have a similar view on the timeline.  However I am buying now.  By late May I think there is a high probability that people start seeing light at the end of the tunnel (like China around two weeks ago when they slowly restarted their economy), and a small probability that it continues to escalate out of control.
> 
> If people see light at the end of the tunnel, with the government basically paying 2 months of payroll / rent / utilities for small businesses that employ 40% of the American workforce, and various grants / loans for big business that is contingent on retaining paychecks, I just don't think too many people will be in a panic to sell by then.  Selling DVC is not an easy source of cash, it takes like 2 months for the entire process to finish, and that's assuming you sell immediately.
> 
> So, I am buying now, when there is still a lot of fear and uncertainty, and possible desperate seller.  Again, the key is that maintenance fees has been paid, so there is no urgent cash spend required on DVC in the near future. So if you have immediate cash need, do you ask for a deferral or try to get a government backed low interest loan, or do you take a bath on DVC where the broker takes 6 - 10% and then you are getting crush on price? Or do you try to wait it out until later this year when you have to start paying 2021 maintenance fees?
> 
> I do think that if this continues until later this year, or if we fail to get the possible second wave under control in the fall, then we will start seeing fire sales.  But if that were to happen, there are much bigger problems, and the government will step in again,



Cautiously optimistic with the news late yesterday that patients seem to be responding to Gilead’s Remdesivir.  We will know more by the end of this month when some of the initial trials are complete.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/16/health/coronavirus-remdesivir-trial/index.html
At this point the stock market is only down around 16% from all time high.  It‘s not even a bear market anymore (defined as off 20% from high).  

DVC is a luxury discretionary item.  On the other hand it’s also an illiquid source of funds, and people don’t really need to sell until later this year when they look at 2021 maintenance fees.  If the economy re-opens soon, I think we may have already seen the bottom - down perhaps 20-30% based on actual transactions in the ROFR thread, not asking price which seemed to be only down a little.


----------



## 0FF TO NEVERLAND

I’ve recently been looking. I admit I know zero about DVC and really need to look into it, but I’ve seen the resale market for some at like 12,000. Being home so long I’ve literally thought maybe we should just buy it  outright ( comes with 100 points per year ). 
Esp if hotels for an upcoming trip are almost 4K for a week. Probably come out ahead in the end. We’ll see. 

We’re just a couple with no kids. Might make sense if I only need to pay the annual dues each year. 

Always wanted to just be a part of DVC since we got bi yearly but I’ll have to do the research on if it makes sense. 

Then again with the economy and who knows about job security due to this pandemic, nows probably the wrong time.


----------



## bookwormde

4/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average


----------



## E2ME2

0FF TO NEVERLAND said:


> I’ve recently been looking. I admit I know zero about DVC and really need to look into it, but I’ve seen the resale market for some at like 12,000. Being home so long I’ve literally thought maybe we should just buy it  outright ( comes with 100 points per year ).
> Esp if hotels for an upcoming trip are almost 4K for a week. Probably come out ahead in the end. We’ll see.
> 
> We’re just a couple with no kids. Might make sense if I only need to pay the annual dues each year.
> 
> Always wanted to just be a part of DVC since we got bi yearly but I’ll have to do the research on if it makes sense.
> 
> Then again with the economy and who knows about job security due to this pandemic, nows probably the wrong time.


If you were leaning towards buying anyway, now could be a really good time to buy DVC.
But please do your due diligence, and check out the details before buying.  There's a lot of good info. on these threads, and there's a lot of junk also.
Filter what you get here by comparing more globally.  Check other threads, and search for independent reviews. 
There are other 3rd party sources that track and publish statistics, and some come with opinions as well.
We bought Direct about 9 years ago, as empty-nesters, and we're in the middle of adding on again via resale.
Good Luck!
ET


----------



## 4ParkFamily

Total newbie question, how far out do you have to bank your points before you lose them?


----------



## Noodlez

4ParkFamily said:


> Total newbie question, how far out do you have to bank your points before you lose them?



More than 4 months before your use year, so January 31st for a June use year.


----------



## 4ParkFamily

Thanks!


----------



## bookwormde

4/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


----------



## DisMomKY

Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?


----------



## chunks

bookwormde said:


> 4/18 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


Have you been compiling each day into a spreadsheet to establish a trend?  Daily totals aren’t really that important...but the trend is


----------



## bookwormde

chunks said:


> Have you been compiling each day into a spreadsheet to establish a trend?  Daily totals aren’t really that important...but the trend is


I am loading them in a spreadsheet but have not the day they were found, just 15 day blocks of time


----------



## sethschroeder

DisMomKY said:


> Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?



They are a separate company so it would not impact it other than not having parks next to the timeshare.

The ones where it's a hotel and dvc split might see an increase in MFs since possibly the hotel side would shut down.

Also I am saying it simply there would be an impact but I think you were more asking if dvc would go under.


----------



## CastAStone

DisMomKY said:


> Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?


I don’t know the answer to your specific question, but no matter what any rando poster here tells you, that’s not going to happen. On their last quarterly report they had $94bn in equity they could borrow against, which is several years of operating expenses (at full cost!) for the closed divisions:


CastAStone said:


> Just a touch more color: TOTAL theme parks and resorts expenses last year were $17bn. Total Studio expenses were $8bn. Even if they had the same operating costs while closed (and they don’t), they could be closed for several years before Disney ran out of assets to borrow against.


Their 10-K is on their website. It’s worth a read if for no other reason than to reassure yourself that there’s no need to panic.


----------



## Beazle

On January 14, I closed on a sale of 150 BCV points at 145 pp
 On  April 15,  I closed on the sale of 400 BCV points at 132 pp.

High points sales usually attract a discount although 132 pp was a very good deal.


----------



## striker1064

DisMomKY said:


> Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?


There's nothing in the DVC contracts guaranteeing the existence of a theme park. DVC continues with or without WDW/DL.


----------



## 0FF TO NEVERLAND

Quick DVC question. Don't know where to post it

If I only want to go on vacation to Disney for a week once every 2 years, 100 point per year contract would be enough correct? As in I can always bank the one year into the next, so essentially I would have 200 points for my vacation every 2 years? 

I have so much time on my hands that the research gene is flowing


----------



## CarolynFH

0FF TO NEVERLAND said:


> Quick DVC question. Don't know where to post it
> 
> If I only want to go on vacation to Disney for a week once every 2 years, 100 point per year contract would be enough correct? As in I can always bank the one year into the next, so essentially I would have 200 points for my vacation every 2 years?
> 
> I have so much time on my hands that the research gene is flowing


Yes, you would have 200 points every 2 years. Whether that would be enough for a week depends on resort, room size, view/location (e.g., Standard view vs. Pool/Garden view at BWV), and dates.


----------



## wallawallakids

0FF TO NEVERLAND said:


> Quick DVC question. Don't know where to post it
> 
> If I only want to go on vacation to Disney for a week once every 2 years, 100 point per year contract would be enough correct? As in I can always bank the one year into the next, so essentially I would have 200 points for my vacation every 2 years?
> 
> I have so much time on my hands that the research gene is flowing



Depending on the resort, room type and time of year, possibly... yes


----------



## bookwormde

4/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 4/19 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average


Have you analyzed the average fluctuation in list prices by resort ?
Have the prices dropped significantly yet ?
ET


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> Have you analyzed the average fluctuation in list prices by resort ?
> Have the prices dropped significantly yet ?
> ET


Just in 15 day tranches that I have posted. Yes listing prices have dropped, but actual sale prices appear to have dropped more if you look at a grouping of lowest sale prices for most resorts


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> Just in 15 day tranches that I have posted. Yes listing prices have dropped, but actual sale prices appear to have dropped more if you look at a grouping of lowest sale prices for most resorts


This squares with what I’ve noticed as I’ve been tracking listings daily for about 2 weeks. The contracts selling tend to be ones that were set at or cut to a very low price, excluding small point contracts, which seem to be moving fine at their usual premiums. But that doesn’t seem to be impacting initial listing prices. Lots of optimism among sellers.


----------



## Brian Noble

CastAStone said:


> Lots of optimism among sellers.


Optimism or denial, depending on one's perspective.


----------



## DisMomKY

Brian Noble said:


> Optimism or denial, depending on one's perspective.


I think it’s definitely optimism I just was counter offered 157 on 110 points at VGF with no 2020 points. It’s been listed since like October. The seller doesn’t want to budge much which is fine, but I’ve seen it 100-120 point contracts without 2020 points listed for 155ish before all this COVID stuff. A lot of buyers will be looking for a deal I think


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> Just in 15 day tranches that I have posted. Yes listing prices have dropped, but actual sale prices appear to have dropped more if you look at a grouping of lowest sale prices for most resorts


Where can you find data on the actual sales price vs the listed price?


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> Where can you find data on the actual sales price vs the listed price?


It is by month but as best I can tell these are actual sales

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-march-2020/
I am looking at pending sales that pop up and comparing them to see if there was a listing that matches.


----------



## Cyberc1978

I just heard from one of the major brokers that for the last two weeks they have sold for more than $3 million which is way more than same time last year.

Dont know if this is really true but if it is true maybe pricing is not moving as much as people was hoping for?


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

Cyberc1978 said:


> I just heard from one of the major brokers that for the last two weeks they have sold for more than $3 million which is way more than same time last year.
> 
> Dont know if this is really true but if it is true maybe pricing is not moving as much as people was hoping for?


VOLUME!!!!  VOLUME!!!!   VOLUME!!!!


----------



## OSUZorba

DisMomKY said:


> Side question, what happens to DVC if the Disney Parks go under and can’t reopen?


Even if Disney couldn't weather the storm, they would go into Chapter 11 bankruptcy, where they could shed debt, contracts and leases. The unsecured creditors would then either vote on selling the company to the highest bidder, breaking up the company, and keeping the company for themselves. The shareholders would most likely be completely wiped out. 

In the completely crazy world where they couldn't make it out of chapter 11 (never going to happen) they would go into chapter 7 were all the assets would be broken off and sold at auction. 

Either way, the parks would still be there and would be reopened by someone. 

The bigger risk is that in 20-30 years the parks aren't kept up or the general public loses interest and the parks slowly decline until they are ultimately closed, completely unrelated to current events. I also don't see this happening, but it is far more likely than a Disney Chapter 7 in the next couple of years.


----------



## bookwormde

4/20  update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average


----------



## glamdring269

striker1064 said:


> There's nothing in the DVC contracts guaranteeing the existence of a theme park. DVC continues with or without WDW/DL.



I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).


----------



## glamdring269

Wrong thread! Seems to be my wrong thread day.


----------



## wallawallakids

glamdring269 said:


> I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).



Well, HH, Aulani, and VB would still be great! Lol


----------



## striker1064

glamdring269 said:


> I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).


I totally get it, but it's a stark reminder that this is a timeshare, just like any other that has nothing in particular driving the location. As mentioned above, there are even Disney timeshares not right next to a theme park.


----------



## E2ME2

glamdring269 said:


> I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).


We will still go if resorts are open and theme parks are closed.  
Maybe we're the exception to the DVC rule, but being in Florida in the winter was our primary reason for DVC. 
Theme Parks, free parking, and transportation all came as a bonus.  
If SSR is open in January 2021 we will be there!
ET


----------



## lovethesun12

E2ME2 said:


> We will still go if resorts are open and theme parks are closed.
> Maybe we're the exception to the DVC rule, but being in Florida in the winter was our primary reason for DVC.
> Theme Parks, free parking, and transportation all came as a bonus.
> If SSR is open in January 2021 we will be there!
> ET


I've considered DVC and opted against it over the years, but honestly the parks are not the main reason I would buy. I go mostly for the sunshine, atmosphere and beautiful pools


----------



## stitchsnk

lovethesun12 said:


> I've considered DVC and opted against it over the years, but honestly the parks are not the main reason I would buy. I go mostly for the sunshine, atmosphere and beautiful pools


We have sat through 2 DVC tours...one at the Polynesian and one on a Disney Cruise. Both times we were ready to buy in! We are finally zeroing in on buying resale (yay!). Moral of the story is that we also buy for the sunshine and beautiful pools.


----------



## Traveling on cc points

lovethesun12 said:


> I've considered DVC and opted against it over the years, but honestly the parks are not the main reason I would buy. I go mostly for the sunshine, atmosphere and beautiful pools


No judgement on you opinion at all but I just don’t understand this thought process. Disney likes to call Dvc rooms “deluxe” The grounds are absolutely beautiful but the rooms are average at best by the rest of the travel worlds standards. Why would anyone buy into dvc if it wasn’t primarily for the parks? There are plenty of timeshares that have sunshine, beautiful pools and 5 star quality rooms for a fraction of the cost of dvc.


----------



## Sandisw

Traveling on cc points said:


> No judgement on you opinion at all but I just don’t understand this thought process. Disney likes to call Dvc rooms “deluxe” The grounds are absolutely beautiful but the rooms are average at best by the rest of the travel worlds standards. Why would anyone buy into dvc if it wasn’t primarily for the parks? There are plenty of timeshares that have sunshine, beautiful pools and 5 star quality rooms for a fraction of the cost of dvc.



Nothing like being there and being surrounded by it.  So many different options too.

Parks have become less and less of the trips I take so resort only stays happen more often, 

I may visit a park for an hour or so...maybe for a meal, etc.


----------



## E2ME2

Traveling on cc points said:


> No judgement on you opinion at all but I just don’t understand this thought process. Disney likes to call Dvc rooms “deluxe” The grounds are absolutely beautiful but the rooms are average at best by the rest of the travel worlds standards. Why would anyone buy into dvc if it wasn’t primarily for the parks? There are plenty of timeshares that have sunshine, beautiful pools and 5 star quality rooms for a fraction of the cost of dvc.


Location, Location, Location
We bought into DVC after spending 2 years worth of scouting trips to Florida, to look into snow-birding options.
Last thing we expected, but turned out to be a good solution for us.  
We wanted to be in a central Florida location, as we have friends and family scattered across the state.  
We found the 2nd home ownership route too expensive, and even in some nice trailer parks the initial costs were cheaper, but maintenance, insurance, property management--
yadda yadda yadda - it became too complicated.  
DVC solved the riddle, and the parks are a bonus when we choose to go.
ET


----------



## FireflyTrance

I can relate to liking to stay at the resort and go to the parks less. And DVC does has some awesome properties. I could easily spend a few days at Animal Kingdom Lodge without ever going to the parks. I also love Aulani. I think you could still buy into DVC if you are a Disney fan, even if you get tired to going to the WDW parks.


----------



## OSUZorba

lovethesun12 said:


> I've considered DVC and opted against it over the years, but honestly the parks are not the main reason I would buy. I go mostly for the sunshine, atmosphere and beautiful pools


Why not Wyndham Bonnet Creek then?


----------



## LAX

Traveling on cc points said:


> No judgement on you opinion at all but I just don’t understand this thought process. Disney likes to call Dvc rooms “deluxe” The grounds are absolutely beautiful but the rooms are average at best by the rest of the travel worlds standards. *Why would anyone buy into dvc if it wasn’t primarily for the parks?* There are plenty of timeshares that have sunshine, beautiful pools and 5 star quality rooms for a fraction of the cost of dvc.



I haven't done research on other timeshares because of their reputation (mostly negative). But, do they offer amenities/activities like DVCs do (honest question)? I am talking about community hall and CM-led type activities.

LAX


----------



## RanDIZ

glamdring269 said:


> I'm kind of laughing about this but can you imagine this actually playing out? I'm trying to think of one reason at all to go to those resorts if there is no park. I can't think of a single one. That would be an epic disaster (taken in perspective of course).
> 
> Here’s 2:
> Save money and no overcrowded parks and lines to deal with. Just relaxation! Haha


----------



## RanDIZ

Here’s a few reasons:

Save money and no overcrowded parks and lines to deal with. Haha


----------



## Traveling on cc points

LAX said:


> I haven't done research on other timeshares because of their reputation (mostly negative). But, do they offer amenities/activities like DVCs do (honest question)? I am talking about community hall and CM-led type activities.
> 
> LAX


From the research I have done, most of the negatives with traditional timeshares is that unlike DVC, they loose most of their value almost instantly. 
all nice timeshares have wonderful amenities such as beautiful grounds, pools and activities, I have never looked into if they have a community hall so I can’t answer that one.

I am not against DVC in the slightest. I am following this thread to see if the prices dip low enough to make it worth it for us to buy a contract. The point I was trying to make with my original reply was why pay the premium to be super close to the parks if you aren’t going to visit them. It’s like paying to a premium to rent a house on the beach when you have no intention of using the beach.


----------



## RivShore

Traveling on cc points said:


> From the research I have done, most of the negatives with traditional timeshares is that unlike DVC, they loose most of their value almost instantly.
> all nice timeshares have wonderful amenities such as beautiful grounds, pools and activities, I have never looked into if they have a community hall so I can’t answer that one.
> 
> I am not against DVC in the slightest. I am following this thread to see if the prices dip low enough to make it worth it for us to buy a contract. The point I was trying to make with my original reply was why pay the premium to be super close to the parks if you aren’t going to visit them. It’s like paying to a premium to rent a house on the beach when you have no intention of using the beach.



A question - are most timeshares forever or do they have an end date like DVC?


----------



## E2ME2

Traveling on cc points said:


> From the research I have done, most of the negatives with traditional timeshares is that unlike DVC, they loose most of their value almost instantly.
> all nice timeshares have wonderful amenities such as beautiful grounds, pools and activities, I have never looked into if they have a community hall so I can’t answer that one.
> 
> I am not against DVC in the slightest. I am following this thread to see if the prices dip low enough to make it worth it for us to buy a contract. The point I was trying to make with my original reply was why pay the premium to be super close to the parks if you aren’t going to visit them. It’s like paying to a premium to rent a house on the beach when you have no intention of using the beach.


Kinda like why did Richard Gere rent out the penthouse suite with Julia Roberts when he was afraid of heights ?? 
'Cause it was the best room they had"!


----------



## bookwormde

4/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average


----------



## E2ME2

RivShore said:


> A question - are most timeshares forever or do they have an end date like DVC?


I don't know about "most", but I know friends that, collectively, own Wyndham, Hilton, and Blugreen & they are all LifeTime commitments.
We debate the pros and cons of lifetime vs <50 years all the time. 
A few things I've observed since owning DVC, and comparing notes with these friends: 
Resale values for DVC are much higher.
Their Maintenance Fees are higher.
One of them still has a fixed week, and its in Williamsburg VA in January (She can't even give that away)
I get a real chuckle when we talk about planning to vacation together in Orlando.  
They all boast about how "close" they can get to Disney (the irony is priceless)
ET


----------



## CastAStone

E2ME2 said:


> I don't know about "most", but I know friends that, collectively, own Wyndham, Hilton, and Blugreen & they are all LifeTime commitments.
> We debate the pros and cons of lifetime vs <50 years all the time.
> A few things I've observed since owning DVC, and comparing notes with these friends:
> Resale values for DVC are much higher.
> Their Maintenance Fees are higher.
> One of them still has a fixed week, and its in Williamsburg VA in January (She can't even give that away)
> I get a real chuckle when we talk about planning to vacation together in Orlando.
> They all boast about how "close" they can get to Disney (the irony is priceless)
> ET


I mean, with most lifetime timeshares the duration is usually until enough owners die off that the entire operation becomes unsustainable.

https://www.redweek.com/resources/ask-redweek/timeshare-resort-out-of-business


----------



## lovethesun12

OSUZorba said:


> Why not Wyndham Bonnet Creek then?


We have looked at Wyndham Bonnet Creek but it's not the best option for everything we want.

We like not having to rent a car and drive in a place we aren't familiar with on vacation, we like the all inclusive (dining, transportation, etc). We also all love Disney. I do love the parks but we only spend maybe 4 hours a day at the park and still take rest days. If they were closed I would still stay at a resort (disclaimer: I won't be traveling anytime soon, just mean that separate from the current situation  ). Maybe more so because I would probably get a better discount 

We've stayed offsite in Florida before but it didn't feel like an all inclusive vacation the way Disney does.


----------



## Traveling on cc points

RivShore said:


> A question - are most timeshares forever or do they have an end date like DVC?


Most are 20 to 30 years. I’m sure there are tons of exceptions to that though.


----------



## LAX

Traveling on cc points said:


> From the research I have done, most of the negatives with traditional timeshares is that unlike DVC, they loose most of their value almost instantly.
> all nice timeshares have wonderful amenities such as beautiful grounds, pools and activities, I have never looked into if they have a community hall so I can’t answer that one.
> 
> I am not against DVC in the slightest. I am following this thread to see if the prices dip low enough to make it worth it for us to buy a contract. The point I was trying to make with my original reply was why pay the premium to be super close to the parks if you aren’t going to visit them. It’s like paying to a premium to rent a house on the beach when you have no intention of using the beach.



I think you might be missing the point others are trying to make. While the parks are definitely the big draw of DVC in general, when one purchases a contract, that's up to 50 years in length. I imagine there wouldn't be too many people that go to a Disney park every year for 30, 40, or even 50 years. There will be years where going to the parks wouldn't be the focus. Plus, many DVC resorts have adequate amenities to keep people entertained for a couple days. That, to me, is not too different from people who own lake front homes that don't necessarily go into the lake everyday or even every month.

LAX


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

E2ME2 said:


> Kinda like why did Richard Gere rent out the penthouse suite with Julia Roberts when he was afraid of heights ??
> 'Cause it was the best room they had"!



There's a lot of descriptions for Disney Vacation Club Timeshare but the best?  There are many accommodations around that are better


LAX said:


> I think you might be missing the point others are trying to make. While the parks are definitely the big draw of DVC in general, when one purchases a contract, that's up to 50 years in length. I imagine there wouldn't be too many people that go to a Disney park every year for 30, 40, or even 50 years. There will be years where going to the parks wouldn't be the focus. Plus, many DVC resorts have adequate amenities to keep people entertained for a couple days. That, to me, is not too different from people who own lake front homes that don't necessarily go into the lake everyday or even every month.
> 
> LAX



I think the reference is with the thought that someone rarely or never goes to the parks but goes to Orlando and stays DVC?    Not someone who over the course of ownership skips the parks after several years once every decade.   We own DVC because we like the parks and to stay onsite close to them and for that we enjoy the resorts.  Never would own it otherwise though.


----------



## LAX

KAT4DISNEY said:


> There's a lot of descriptions for Disney Vacation Club Timeshare but the best?  There are many accommodations around that are better
> 
> 
> I think the reference is with the thought that someone rarely or never goes to the parks but goes to Orlando and stays DVC?    Not someone who over the course of ownership skips the parks after several years once every decade.   We own DVC because we like the parks and to stay onsite close to them and for that we enjoy the resorts.  Never would own it otherwise though.



Perhaps it was me who misinterpreted others. However, I do like the Disney touches available at the resorts, which at times are enough to make me not miss going to the parks during a particular stay. While it maybe less so now than before, some DVC resorts offer themes that are typically not available at other timeshares (ie: the savanna at AKV). Maybe I am in the minority, but I very much enjoyed my stays at AUL and HHI, which are no where near any Disney parks.

LAX


----------



## bookwormde

4/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average


----------



## Aussie RJ

LAX said:


> Maybe I am in the minority, but I very much enjoyed my stays at AUL and HHI, which are no where near any Disney parks.
> 
> LAX


AUL isn’t like any other WDW resort though. AUL was built as a destination hotel. Without the parks DVC @WDW dos not offer a lot.


----------



## Minniemoo15

I obviously like that the resorts are close to the parks, but I also like how they feel like a resort.

The other timeshare places that I have stayed at (Reunion, Vistana, Orange Lake...) are all much cheaper, but they are massive complexes. I dont want to have to walk 10 minutes down the road with cars passing me in my bathing suit to get to a pool. I don’t want to have to drive my car to get to the lobby.

I love that when we have stayed at our DVC (so far Poly, BCV, AKV)...it feels more like a hotel/resort than a timeshare.


----------



## Brian Noble

Traveling on cc points said:


> From the research I have done, most of the negatives with traditional timeshares is that unlike DVC, they loose most of their value almost instantly.


That can work both ways though. It's a bad thing for the person who originally bought from the developer. It is a _great_ thing for the person who buys from that person*! *I own five timeshares, and my total cost to acquire all five was less than $4K. Three of those I've owned for a decade+, and the other two we just bought last year. We've had some fantastic vacations with them.

All of mine are in perpetuity, but that doesn't bother me. As observed up thread, many will dissolve through "natural causes". Those that don't can be inherited (if one of my kids wants one), but they don't have to be. They are not required to inherit them and can be disclaimed instead.


----------



## Brian Noble

Minniemoo15 said:


> I obviously like that the resorts are close to the parks, but I also like how they feel like a resort.
> 
> The other timeshare places that I have stayed at (Reunion, Vistana, Orange Lake...) are all much cheaper, but they are massive complexes. I dont want to have to walk 10 minutes down the road with cars passing me in my bathing suit to get to a pool. I don’t want to have to drive my car to get to the lobby.
> 
> I love that when we have stayed at our DVC (so far Poly, BCV, AKV)...it feels more like a hotel/resort than a timeshare.


To be fair, SSR and OKW are a lot more like Vistana than they are BCV. On the other hand, Wyndham Bonnet Creek has that resort/hotel vibe vs. the more condo-oriented one.

As it happens, I like both the condo-style and the hotel-style, but for different reasons.


----------



## Minniemoo15

Brian Noble said:


> To be fair, SSR and OKW are a lot more like Vistana than they are BCV. On the other hand, Wyndham Bonnet Creek has that resort/hotel vibe vs. the more condo-oriented one.
> 
> As it happens, I like both the condo-style and the hotel-style, but for different reasons.



Yes, but even when I stayed at SSR, it was (or at least felt?) much more compact than the other timeshares I've stayed at and I preferred it to those. The pools were nicely themed and the lobby/quick service was easy to access. It's not my favourite DVC but it did have its own appeal, especially being in walking distance to Disney Springs. I have never stayed at Bonnet Creek though, so maybe that is the sweet spot for someone wanting a resort-feel but not wanting to pay DVC prices.


----------



## MICKIMINI

OKW was $62 pp when we bought in 1996.  We are watching prices in order to add on one or two contracts (maybe more).  It's funny as we get closer to retirement, we've been around and around with buying a condo in FL but have decided we were "home" at Disney anyway.  Spending a month or two in the winter at WDW is perfect for us as our son and DIL love it too.  We planned to add on this year before this crisis hit, now we may be able to purchase a larger contract(s).  OKW still works best for us for a long stay as parking is right outside the door, however other resorts are still an option.  There are so many loaded contracts but so few Oct UY...


----------



## E2ME2

CastAStone said:


> I mean, with most lifetime timeshares the duration is usually until enough owners die off that the entire operation becomes unsustainable.
> 
> https://www.redweek.com/resources/ask-redweek/timeshare-resort-out-of-business


That's a very interesting Red Week article. I would hate to be one of the 75% that were still wanting to use the timeshare.   They get the short end of that stick, eh ??


----------



## E2ME2

MICKIMINI said:


> OKW was $62 pp when we bought in 1996.  We are watching prices in order to add on one or two contracts (maybe more).  It's funny as we get closer to retirement, we've been around and around with buying a condo in FL but have decided we were "home" at Disney anyway.  Spending a month or two in the winter at WDW is perfect for us as our son and DIL love it too.  We planned to add on this year before this crisis hit, now we may be able to purchase a larger contract(s).  OKW still works best for us for a long stay as parking is right outside the door, however other resorts are still an option.  There are so many loaded contracts but so few Oct UY...


I can relate -- I retire in December and DVC is our SnowBird Plan.  We bought SSR in 2011, and it took me til Feb, 2020 to find the "perfect" SSR contract and Use Year.  I just Closed on 225 more SSR points, and we now have enough for 5-6 weeks there every winter.  I will be watching to see how low prices go, as we couldd happily extend our snow-birding into March every year, for the right deal.  Good Luck, and we definitely will be one of your DVC neighbors in Winter!  What Stae do you reside in now?


----------



## MICKIMINI

We're in New Hampshire.  We love it in the summer, not so much in the winter...  This is a great opportunity to buy more contracts and good timing for your December retirement - congrats!
We're hoping for an annual January and February stay...  Yes, we'll be Disney   neighbors in a couple years (DH would do it this year, but Momma said "no")!  Can't wait!  See you there!


----------



## FireflyTrance

I would love DVC to be part of my retirement plan, and go there for a month or two each Winter. I am a long way from retirement but if prices drop enough I would like to pick up a significant amount of points. Right now we usually go to WDW as a group of 6, so it would be great to be able to get a 2-bedroom for a week or more each year.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

LAX said:


> Perhaps it was me who misinterpreted others. However, I do like the Disney touches available at the resorts, which at times are enough to make me not miss going to the parks during a particular stay. While it maybe less so now than before, some DVC resorts offer themes that are typically not available at other timeshares (ie: the savanna at AKV). Maybe I am in the minority, but I very much enjoyed my stays at AUL and HHI, which are no where near any Disney parks.
> 
> LAX



We like Aulani too.   It's not to difficult to see that the offsite reflects in resale pricing though, and even direct, because they don't have the plus of location that the onsite resorts do.   



Aussie RJ said:


> AUL isn’t like any other WDW resort though. AUL was built as a destination hotel. Without the parks DVC @WDW dos not offer a lot.



They did end up having to do some significant changes from what they originally built which was much more in line with onsite resorts other than the improved pool and slides.   When we first visited they were in the midst of those updates to make it a better suited to guests who were going to spend a lot of time at the resort and I think that was less than 2 years from when it opened?


----------



## E2ME2

MICKIMINI said:


> We're in New Hampshire.  We love it in the summer, not so much in the winter...  This is a great opportunity to buy more contracts and good timing for your December retirement - congrats!
> We're hoping for an annual January and February stay...  Yes, we'll be Disney   neighbors in a couple years (DH would do it this year, but Momma said "no")!  Can't wait!  See you there!


Looking forward to it!  We're Marylanders, so we have better Crabs, and you have better Lobster 
ET


----------



## MICKIMINI

It's wicked good lobsta!


----------



## bookwormde

4/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240% of average 

It is notable that fidelity has only listed 5 contracts since 4/15 which is suppressing the average


----------



## RanDIZ

My 100pt AKV for $109 passed ROFR Jan 14, 2020. Asking was $119. Has 100 points 2020 and on. This is still inline with what I’m seeing on the market now.


----------



## bookwormde

4/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280% of average

Over half were SSR


----------



## frank808

KAT4DISNEY said:


> I recall direct with incentives in the $88/pt range and I believe resales could be found in the mid $70's although there's never been a lot of them.


That $88 price was black Friday 2011 IIRC.  The same special and pricing that was running for BLT but you also got developer points.  Seemed very weird to me that the only DL DVC resort was priced lower than BLT.  And WDW has so many DVC resorts.  Best DVC point appreciation I have for direct purchase points. 

Followed the advice of Warren Buffet when we bought then "be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful."


----------



## bookwormde

4/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30% of average


----------



## DisMomKY

bookwormde said:


> 4/25 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30% of average


I noticed there weren’t many new ones posted yesterday! I’m trying to wait out a good deal so hopefully today will be better for postings


----------



## bookwormde

DisMomKY said:


> I noticed there weren’t many new ones posted yesterday! I’m trying to wait out a good deal so hopefully today will be better for postings


weekends are typically much slower for postings, unfortunately I did not have historic information on that differential so I am just  using general average which causes the percentages to see saw


----------



## Brianstl

This is one to definitely keep an eye on. It is at the resort that has been the most bought back by volume and percentage so far this year, a low point contract, is fully loaded and is 24% below the average OKW resale price in March.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...st-for--formatting-tool.3798344/post-61819475


----------



## E2ME2

Brianstl said:


> This is one to definitely keep an eye on. It is at the resort that has been the most bought back by volume and percentage so far this year, a low point contract, is fully loaded and is 24% below the average OKW resale price in March.
> 
> https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...st-for--formatting-tool.3798344/post-61819475


Agreed - we're all watching that one. 
If it gets wiaved, It may be the first crack in the ROFR dam......


----------



## CastAStone

E2ME2 said:


> Agreed - we're all watching that one.
> If it gets wiaved, It may be the first crack in the ROFR dam......


If it gets waived, it’s a free for All.


----------



## bookwormde

Yes it will tell us if DVD has any interest in taking contracts back into inventory with no near term chance of selling them

From what I have seen DVD has not done this in general except on rare cases when they were protecting the pricing on new resorts


----------



## ELMC

I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do.  We view it as a tool for them to maintain the prices of their resorts on the resale market.  I think they view it as a way of acquiring needed points and possibly as a way of preventing an image-tarnishing price from passing.  But that's far different from their actively using ROFR to prop up prices - I think that may be more of a figment of our imagination.  (See what I did there?  Figment?  Disney character?)    Remember, there's more to ROFR that we don't know than we do; that's part of its effectiveness.  So if this OKW contract slips by for $75 we may view it as an opening of the floodgates, but that doesn't necessarily make it so.  What I agree it will do is embolden people to be bolder and more aggressive in their offers, and it's about time. I always felt that bidding more to give yourself a better chance of passing ROFR was a fallacy anyway.


----------



## jarestel

ELMC said:


> I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do.


I think this is absolutely true. ROFR was always a hidden and mysterious process, and even in the best of times we would see higher priced contracts ROFR'd while lower priced ones at the same resort sailed through. In any event, Disney has a set budget for buybacks just like they do for every other expenditure and it's not unlimited so buying back every contract that violated some sort of bottom line just wouldn't be possible.

I do think Disney has things they look for when evaluating whether they want a contract back but price doesn't seem to be at the top of that list.


----------



## DaveNan

ELMC said:


> I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do.  We view it as a tool for them to maintain the prices of their resorts on the resale market.  I think they view it as a way of acquiring needed points and possibly as a way of preventing an image-tarnishing price from passing.  But that's far different from their actively using ROFR to prop up prices - I think that may be more of a figment of our imagination.  (See what I did there?  Figment?  Disney character?)    Remember, there's more to ROFR that we don't know than we do; that's part of its effectiveness.  So if this OKW contract slips by for $75 we may view it as an opening of the floodgates, but that doesn't necessarily make it so.  What I agree it will do is embolden people to be bolder and more aggressive in their offers, and it's about time. I always felt that bidding more to give yourself a better chance of passing ROFR was a fallacy anyway.


I agree.  I posted a couple of years ago on the same topic.  I don't believe Disney artificially inflates the resale market by "protecting" the value of DVC by using ROFR to maintain a high resale market.  Disney has a responsibility to represent the interest of stockholders and maximize profit.  What Disney is doing is trying to increase the value of direct points versus resale points.  They have added member benefits, increased the number of points required to get member benefits multiple times, increased their flexibility in flipping ROFR points by lifting the UY not changeable restriction (only for them, not for owners) and finally booking restrictions.  This difference in value not only justifies buying direct, but it also intentionally decreases the value of resale.  They actually want a lower resale market.  They want to be able to buy cheap points to resell them for a higher margin.

They only buy resale (exercise ROFR) to resell those points quickly.  They do not want to maintain an inventory of sold out resort points.  They purchase enough points to meet the resale needs they have.  They will buy enough of the "cheapest" points available to them in the short term (from the pool in ROFR) to meet the demand they have for resale points.  Ultimately, they want resale points at the lowest possible value.  That way they make maximum money on the flipped the points.  

At some extreme, super low resale values may impact the ability to sell direct points.  But in general many direct buyers are not aware of the resale, view resale points significantly less valuable, or just want the "real magic" by buying direct.  Additionally, almost all other timeshares show us having resale available for pennies on the dollar does not stop direct sales from happening.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

Brianstl said:


> This is one to definitely keep an eye on. It is at the resort that has been the most bought back by volume and percentage so far this year, a low point contract, is fully loaded and is 24% below the average OKW resale price in March.
> 
> https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...st-for--formatting-tool.3798344/post-61819475


I think Disney is buying back more OKW so they can resell them with the extended expiration. I think it makes it easier for them if they get rid of as many of the 2042 contracts as they can.


----------



## Anuhea35

I really hope I’m not getting everyone’s hopes up for nothing. (Kinda why I wasn’t gonna post it) I went into this deal cause I wanted to see what would happen.....and cause I’m bored being stuck at home all day 

On the bright side, now I’m not the only one waiting for my brokers email


----------



## Erik Rhoda

DaveNan said:


> I agree.  I posted a couple of years ago on the same topic.  I don't believe Disney artificially inflates the resale market by "protecting" the value of DVC by using ROFR to maintain a high resale market.  Disney has a responsibility to represent the interest of stockholders and maximize profit.  What Disney is doing is trying to increase the value of direct points versus resale points.  They have added member benefits, increased the number of points required to get member benefits multiple times, increased their flexibility in flipping ROFR points by lifting the UY not changeable restriction (only for them, not for owners) and finally booking restrictions.  This difference in value not only justifies buying direct, but it also intentionally decreases the value of resale.  They actually want a lower resale market.  They want to be able to buy cheap points to resell them for a higher margin.
> 
> They only buy resale (exercise ROFR) to resell those points quickly.  They do not want to maintain an inventory of sold out resort points.  They purchase enough points to meet the resale needs they have.  They will buy enough of the "cheapest" points available to them in the short term (from the pool in ROFR) to meet the demand they have for resale points.  Ultimately, they want resale points at the lowest possible value.  That way they make maximum money on the flipped the points.
> 
> At some extreme, super low resale values may impact the ability to sell direct points.  But in general many direct buyers are not aware of the resale, view resale points significantly less valuable, or just want the "real magic" by buying direct.  Additionally, almost all other timeshares show us having resale available for pennies on the dollar does not stop direct sales from happening.



Sometimes they do buy up large amounts for inventory. I was talking to my Guide 3 months ago and he said they had son many SSR points that they loaded them into the guides data base like RIV and AUL so they could just sell them vs having to put in a request.


----------



## bookwormde

Anuhea35 said:


> I really hope I’m not getting everyone’s hopes up for nothing. (Kinda why I wasn’t gonna post it) I went into this deal cause I wanted to see what would happen.....and cause I’m bored being stuck at home all day
> 
> On the bright side, now I’m not the only one waiting for my brokers email


I did pretty much the same thing in 2010 there was an OKW contract for $52 and I offered $45 thinking first that the owner would not accept it and if they did that DVD would ROFR it. 45 days later it was mine., And this was a time that while limited they were selling OKW direct

I think you have a very good chance of getting it.


----------



## bookwormde

Erik Rhoda said:


> Sometimes they do buy up large amounts for inventory. I was talking to my Guide 3 months ago and he said they had son many SSR points that they loaded them into the guides data base like RIV and AUL so they could just sell them vs having to put in a request.


I wonder if that was intentionally taking them into inventory, or if they had a bunch of SSR sales fall through


----------



## DougEMG

ELMC said:


> I don't think that Disney views ROFR in the same way we do.  We view it as a tool for them to maintain the prices of their resorts on the resale market.  I think they view it as a way of acquiring needed points and possibly as a way of preventing an image-tarnishing price from passing.  But that's far different from their actively using ROFR to prop up prices - I think that may be more of a figment of our imagination.  (See what I did there?  Figment?  Disney character?)    Remember, there's more to ROFR that we don't know than we do; that's part of its effectiveness.  So if this OKW contract slips by for $75 we may view it as an opening of the floodgates, but that doesn't necessarily make it so.  What I agree it will do is embolden people to be bolder and more aggressive in their offers, and it's about time. I always felt that bidding more to give yourself a better chance of passing ROFR was a fallacy anyway.



Agree.  Until owners *need to sell* and lower what they will take you aren't going to see big drops in price.


----------



## Erik Rhoda

DougEMG said:


> Agree.  Until owners *need to sell* and lower what they will take you aren't going to see big drops in price.


Well BCV is already being offered at $119. I would offer $110-114. I think that is a big drop in a short time.


----------



## ELMC

DaveNan said:


> At some extreme, super low resale values may impact the ability to sell direct points.  But in general many direct buyers are not aware of the resale, view resale points significantly less valuable, or just want the "real magic" by buying direct.  Additionally, almost all other timeshares show us having resale available for pennies on the dollar does not stop direct sales from happening.


I agree that it's possible but not likely.  I envision the meeting going something like this:

Prospective buyer:  What can I get for this contract if I put it on the resale market?
DVC Salesperson:    Why would you ever want to sell?
Prospective buyer:  Good point.  (Bites into free ice cream).


----------



## ELMC

DougEMG said:


> Agree.  Until owners *need to sell* and lower what they will take you aren't going to see big drops in price.


I agree this will be a big part, but I also think that owners who simply want to sell can influence this as well.  If they're just done with it, they might just take whatever they're offered.  And if the market is coming down then what they're offered will be less.  I hate to use the car analogy, but how many of us just took whatever the dealer gave us for our trade-in when we bought a new car.  I know I've been guilty of that a few times.


----------



## Yankee626

Just saw a SSR 1200 point contract sell @ 76 a point


----------



## bookwormde

4/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average


----------



## Bowen Family

MICKIMINI said:


> ROFR is/has always been a threat.  DVC _will_ step in if they feel a price is too low - that is good for owners.  If owners are keeping their contracts (the majority) then the "value" to speculators is irrelevant to us as owners.  I have the "vehicle" to stay at WDW for as little as $70+/- for a studio at AKV so I am a happy camper as are the majority of DVC members.
> 
> There is way more to value than just an average price...UY, size of contract, number of points, banked points all can skew the value.  I developed my own calculation to determine the value of a contract.  My DH and I have actually randomly looked at contracts in the past, to prove our own calculator and many contracts that seem to our trained eyes (25 years) to be a great deal often are not.  I just insert the numbers and in a couple minutes I can determine if it is a steal or not.  Sticker price isn't a good indicator for me as I need the bottom line!



I’m really interested in this formula you’ve developed! Can you please elaborate on your variables? For example, what is the difference between size of contract and # of points? Is the former the # of years left?

And how does UY factor in? I’m guessing the closer you buy to the start of the UY, the greater the flexibility?

Just thinking of entering the resale market so any additional insight is appreciated! Thanks!


----------



## E2ME2

Yankee626 said:


> Just saw a SSR 1200 point contract sell @ 76 a point


Ooh - let me get that $91K out of my cash drawer ! 
That's a huge Contract.
ET


----------



## MICKIMINI

When evaluating a contract I look at:
UY               Oct  (our personal UY)
Size             How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
#Pts            Number of points in contract annually
Banked       Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use

I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's.  My goal is not to pay MF's on past years.  That is the total cost.  I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year.  I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points.  At some point I will likely flip the contract.  Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.

I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL.  My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo).  Buy 100 pts at $90.  Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200.   Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-     

100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP

It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract.  I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC.   I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us.  Good luck!


----------



## Bowen Family

MICKIMINI said:


> When evaluating a contract I look at:
> UY               Oct  (our personal UY)
> Size             How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
> #Pts            Number of points in contract annually
> Banked       Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use
> 
> I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's.  My goal is not to pay MF's on past years.  That is the total cost.  I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year.  I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points.  At some point I will likely flip the contract.  Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.
> 
> I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL.  My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo).  Buy 100 pts at $90.  Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200.   Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-
> 
> 100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP
> 
> It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract.  I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC.   I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us.  Good luck!



This is really great info. Thank you!!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

MICKIMINI said:


> I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL.  My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo).  Buy 100 pts at $90.  Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200.   Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-
> 
> 100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP



Your strategy is very impressive!! My problem is I want all those points--greedy Disney addict I am!!
p.s.  Does profit from renting/transferring points have to be declared on taxes? Just wondering.


----------



## striker1064

ABE4DISNEY said:


> p.s.  Does profit from renting/transferring points have to be declared on taxes? Just wondering.



Sure does.


----------



## MICKIMINI

ABE4DISNEY said:


> Your strategy is very impressive!! My problem is I want all those points--greedy Disney addict I am!!
> p.s.  Does profit from renting/transferring points have to be declared on taxes? Just wondering.


Yes, unfortunately!


----------



## keishashadow

MICKIMINI said:


> When evaluating a contract I look at:
> UY               Oct  (our personal UY)
> Size             How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
> #Pts            Number of points in contract annually
> Banked       Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use
> 
> I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's.  My goal is not to pay MF's on past years.  That is the total cost.  I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year.  I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points.  At some point I will likely flip the contract.  Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.
> 
> I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL.  My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo).  Buy 100 pts at $90.  Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200.   Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-
> 
> 100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP
> 
> It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract.  I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC.   I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us.  Good luck!


You’ve pretty much complied all the strategies that have been bantered about here in the past that most of us have likely employed. 

DH is itching to take a stab at things.  I’m dragging my feet, mostly for two concerns:   

Possibility of increased dues & 

Whether we realistically would be able to utilize a well-banked contract (even at resorts I’d rather not visit).  There are just so many others cancelling & rebooking reservations, inventory may be disappearing quickly.

We last added onto AK a little less than 3 years ago..70 points at $78 a points, loaded contract.  

We pay cash, prefer smaller addons but the closing costs tend to skew the final  point price

No stats to back it up, but it seems as though our original October UY for two of our home resorts, appears to be very popular.  December (our various AKV contracts) seems to have more inventory when I do look.


----------



## RhodyKP

MICKIMINI said:


> "I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year.  I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points."



Just curious - has your (or would your) analysis changed in light of the uncertainty as to when the parks will reopen? I'm having a hard time seeing any value in pre-current year points right now.


----------



## MICKIMINI

keishashadow said:


> You’ve pretty much complied all the strategies that have been bantered about here in the past that most of us have likely employed.
> 
> DH is itching to take a stab at things.  I’m dragging my feet, mostly for two concerns:
> 
> Possibility of increased dues &
> 
> Whether we realistically would be able to utilize a well-banked contract (even at resorts I’d rather not visit).  There are just so many others cancelling & rebooking reservations, inventory may be disappearing quickly.
> 
> We last added onto AK a little less than 3 years ago..70 points at $78 a points, loaded contract.
> 
> We pay cash, prefer smaller addons but the closing costs tend to skew the final  point price
> 
> No stats to back it up, but it seems as though our original October UY for two of our home resorts, appears to be very popular.  December (our various AKV contracts) seems to have more inventory when I do look.


You did well with your last add on!  I think there is plenty of time to contemplate where prices will land.  Crazy as it sounds, I focus on the ideal contract and just about the time I lose hope - there it is.  It has happened more than a few times weird as it sounds.  No hurry!


----------



## MICKIMINI

RhodyKP said:


> Just curious - has your (or would your) analysis changed in light of the uncertainty as to when the parks will reopen? I'm having a hard time seeing any value in pre-current year points right now.


The analysis hasn't changed IMO.  I'm waiting too.  DH and I have been debating our next contract and then Friday's announcement came along.  I spent the weekend contemplating it and as I don't buy stripped contracts it won't matter in that direction.  There are plenty of points in our account now, so we don't need to borrow anyway as we cancelled two trips this year and have plenty for next.  

You are right - the only concern is actually _using _what is banked.  That is always the biggest consideration.  I'm fronting the money and counting on those two years of rentals or transfers to offset the purchase price.  I don't overpay regardless and we pay cash.  It would not be the end of the world if we didn't get the offset, but I would certainly be bummed about it!   Timing the purchase at the end of the calendar year for our October UY has worked well and I can then rent (or now transfer) points early in the following year.  

I agree that prices are way to high now - totally unrealistic, but the market has not shifted  much yet.  It will.  I'm hoping that parks reopen this summer and I believe prices will continue to go down this fall and that's when we will try to find the right deal(s).  IMO it will take a couple years for prices to return to the highly inflated 2019-20 prices.  I could be totally wrong and only time will tell.


----------



## DougEMG

ELMC said:


> I agree this will be a big part, but I also think that owners who simply want to sell can influence this as well.  If they're just done with it, they might just take whatever they're offered.  And if the market is coming down then what they're offered will be less.  I hate to use the car analogy, but how many of us just took whatever the dealer gave us for our trade-in when we bought a new car.  I know I've been guilty of that a few times.



Some of the things that influence the prices that sellers put their contracts up for: what are current resale prices, what is the broker telling you to sell for and finally how quickly do you want to sell.

As an example, way back I sold a BWV contract.  I set my price 20% higher than all other BWV contracts on the market.  The broker said I was listing too high.  At that time, there were not a lot of BWV contracts for sale.  I had multiple BWV contracts, placed them all up for sale at multiple brokers which meant that half of all active BWV listings were my contracts.  Well the lower priced ones sold first, but other people listing their BWV started listing at my price.  End result was that I sold the contract at the price I wanted.

Now we'll see things happen in reverse.  Someone needing to sell will price a little lower than everyone else so they sell fast.  Will another seller come in a undercut that previous seller.  If that keeps happening you could see a big price drop.  For that to happen I think this downturn needs to last for a long time and effect a lot of DVC owners.  It isn't like someone can sell and have the money next week.  It takes a long time to get the money from a sale, normally a minimum of 2 months, more like 3 months.


----------



## bookwormde

4/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average


----------



## bookwormde

4/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average


----------



## Jaguar Skills

bookwormde said:


> 4/28 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average



Hi, we are new to this, can someone explain what the phrase means?


----------



## Noles235

bookwormde said:


> 4/28 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average


New listings have definitely slowed down from late last week when SSR seemed to keep coming. Unfortunately, of those listings, we could not agree on a purchase price. Looks to be firming up a bit on some that took a hit recently.


----------



## DisMomKY

Noles235 said:


> New listings have definitely slowed down from late last week when SSR seemed to keep coming. Unfortunately, of those listings, we could not agree on a purchase price. Looks to be firming up a bit on some that took a hit recently.


I wonder if it’s because it looks like there is an end in sight to Disney being closed and DVC making the adjustment to banking for those who had to cancel in April


----------



## Jason_79

E2ME2 said:


> Ooh - let me get that $91K out of my cash drawer !
> That's a huge Contract.
> ET


fun fact, this contract had an offer accepted.  Was it you!? haha


----------



## chris_ant

Jason_79 said:


> fun fact, this contract had an offer accepted.  Was it you!? haha


This may actually be a interesting case for ROFR, depending on final price of course.  If the buyer negotiated a deal since it was a larger contract, DVD could see this as an opportunity to acquire at a lower price a larger bulk to potentially resale.  Disney still has deeper pockets than the vast majority of us, so why buy back lower point contracts at higher prices?


----------



## E2ME2

Jason_79 said:


> fun fact, this contract had an offer accepted.  Was it you!? haha


Don't I wish!  
Def. not me, but it will be interesting to see if it gets through ROFR.  And, if it does, I would like to know what the buyer offered. (and if he/she would be my new BFF and share those points)


----------



## Anuhea35

Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting.  I PASSED!!!

Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29


----------



## Brianstl

Anuhea35 said:


> Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting.  I PASSED!!!
> 
> Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29



What is that I hear?  Crashing prices.


----------



## CastAStone

Anuhea35 said:


> Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting.  I PASSED!!!
> 
> Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29


I am SO jealous. Nice find. Did you find it on one of the major resale sites or was this something you stumbled across more on your own? And may I ask what asking was?


----------



## wallawallakids

Anuhea35 said:


> Just wanted to post here too since I know you guys were waiting.  I PASSED!!!
> 
> Anuhea35---$75-$5110-60-OKW-Dec-0/18, 60/19, 60/20, 60/21- sent 4/15 - PASSED! 4/29


That is amazing!!  Congratulations!!


----------



## bookwormde

4/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average 

I will be adding a DIS ROFR monthly average report also adjusted for standard current points and typical closing costs 

I am currently using $12/pt for the adjustments since that appears to be a good average of both maintenance plus capital cost to expiration and rent value less taxes.


----------



## macman123

bookwormde said:


> I will be adding a DIS ROFR monthly average report also adjusted for standard current points and typical closing costs



I know DVC Resale offers the ROFR average, is it generally anywhere else?

The daily update on contract volumes is very helpful by the way, so thanks!


----------



## kboo

chris_ant said:


> This may actually be a interesting case for ROFR, depending on final price of course.  If the buyer negotiated a deal since it was a larger contract, DVD could see this as an opportunity to acquire at a lower price a larger bulk to potentially resale.  Disney still has deeper pockets than the vast majority of us, so why buy back lower point contracts at higher prices?



Back in 2017 (?) when I was looking for VGF points, there was a 1200 point contract on resale - I wasn't able to track all the way to the OC website, but I think it was asking below $125 pp and was not ROFR'd.


----------



## RoseGold

I've been watching VGF. Pricing was at 155-160 the last couple weeks, and is finally dipping to 150-155.

My target is 2017 pricing, so about 145, and we might get there!


----------



## chris_ant

kboo said:


> Back in 2017 (?) when I was looking for VGF points, there was a 1200 point contract on resale - I wasn't able to track all the way to the OC website, but I think it was asking below $125 pp and was not ROFR'd.


Who knows what drives them to make the decisions they do.  What I think separates the two in my mind is DVD could buy back those points at $5 less than asking and then resale them direct at more than double their cost.  I don't think that would have been the case had they bought the VGF in 2017.  That wouldn't guarantee either contract bought, just a glimpse into my thinking about that particular contract.  Especially given the current situation, I would guess these are selling at a much larger % discount relative to the other.  But isn't that what keeps us all guessing what will pass?


----------



## bookwormde

4/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average


----------



## bookbunny

mamaofsix said:


> To answer you question, personally, I think these numbers are optimistic.  In the past few days alone, prices have already dropped at some resort to your May or June levels.  Listings for VGF in the high 150s, AKL at 105, BCV in the 130s...
> 
> I think we're going to see a much steeper drop.
> 
> We have not bought into DVC yet, but a good deal would be mighty tempting.


 
I agree. The numbers have been coming down on the PP. Would I buy if the price for let's say BCV drops to $120 or even $100? Yes I would. But we are now in a holding pattern to see when Disney is able to reopen and when can people really start making reservations. I have one for September but I starting to wonder if they will be opening all four parks by then.


----------



## bookwormde

5/1 new contract levels updated on post 1 and are below

These represent the averages from 4/16 to 4/30

Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 190 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)

actuals in (###)

.........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1 ...6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110) 100 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98) 90 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144) 130 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143) 135 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120) 110 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96) 85 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155) 136 128 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163) 165 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77) 68 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104) 84 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136) 130 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100) 88 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64) 56 52 50 48


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for  reduced contract The data used is from the 2 largest resellers



Reduced

..…...3/31      4/15       4/30



AKV       110         109         109  

AUL        97           93           92  

BLT         144         146         146  

BCV        138         137         140  

BWV      118         118         116   

BRV        100         ND          94     

CCV        148         150         150  

VGF       168         168         168  

HH          74           74           74     

OKW      95           94           93     

POLY      143         144         144 

SS           102         98           101  

VB          62           62           63


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for  reduced contract The data used is from the 2 largest resellers
> 
> 
> 
> Reduced
> 
> ..…...3/31      4/15       4/30
> 
> 
> 
> AKV       110         109         109
> 
> AUL        97           93           92
> 
> BLT         144         146         146
> 
> BCV        138         137         140
> 
> BWV      118         118         116
> 
> BRV        100         ND          94
> 
> CCV        148         150         150
> 
> VGF       168         168         168
> 
> HH          74           74           74
> 
> OKW      95           94           93
> 
> POLY      143         144         144
> 
> SS           102         98           101
> 
> VB          62           62           63


So on average, there was an uptick in the prices from 4/15 to 4/30 ??


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers



Pending

………3/31      4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31       6/15       6/30                     



AKV       109         108         109         100         96           92           90

AUL        96           97           97           90           85           82           80

BLT         137         141         144         130         128         124         124

BCV        140         138         140         135         132         130         128

BWV      118         121         121         110         106         103         100

BRV        98           98           97           85           80           76           72

CCV        147         147         150         136         128         125         125

VGF       164         163         161         165         162         160         158

HH          75           76           75           68           65           62           60

OKW      93           93           93           84           78           72           70

POLY      146         146         146         130         125         120         120

SS           101         101         102         88           85           82           80

VB          71           67           67           56           52           50           48


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> So on average, there was an uptick in the prices from 4/15 to 4/30 ??


My impression was that prices were on whole unchanged


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15 and 4/30 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers
> 
> 
> 
> Pending
> 
> ………3/31      4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31       6/15       6/30
> 
> 
> 
> AKV       109         108         109         100         96           92           90
> 
> AUL        96           97           97           90           85           82           80
> 
> BLT         137         141         144         130         128         124         124
> 
> BCV        140         138         140         135         132         130         128
> 
> BWV      118         121         121         110         106         103         100
> 
> BRV        98           98           97           85           80           76           72
> 
> CCV        147         147         150         136         128         125         125
> 
> VGF       164         163         161         165         162         160         158
> 
> HH          75           76           75           68           65           62           60
> 
> OKW      93           93           93           84           78           72           70
> 
> POLY      146         146         146         130         125         120         120
> 
> SS           101         101         102         88           85           82           80
> 
> VB          71           67           67           56           52           50           48


Are you predicting through 6/30 ??


----------



## bookwormde

Below is the data from April 2020 DIS ROFR

It is preliminary pending final posts

The formulas are a work in progress

It included the number of sales, average face purchase price as well as the price adjusted too standard current points, MF paid and other items such as seller paying closing. I have also included the high and low with points of those contracts where there is more than 1



AKV       6

Average face 102 low face 95/100 high face 107/100

Adjusted face 105 low adjusted 95/100 high adjusted 111/100

AUL        0

BLT         4

Average face 135 low face 130/150 high face 140/120

Adjusted face 135 low adjusted 131/120 high adjusted 142/150

BCV        4

Average face 145 low face 138/100 high face 155/30

Adjusted face 145 low adjusted 126/100 high adjusted 160/30

BWV      4

Average face 111 low face 108/300 high face 116/150

Adjusted face 115 low adjusted 110/150 high adjusted 119/150

BRV        1

Face 88/220

Adjusted face 93/220

CCV        1

Face 139/220

Adjusted face 155/220

VGF       2

Average face 153 low face 150/200 high face 155/150

Adjusted face 157 low adjusted 155/200 high adjusted 158/150

OKW42 2

Average face 83 low face 75/60 high face 90/100

Adjusted face 83 low adjusted 75/60 high adjusted 90/100

OKW57 1

Face 90/100

Adjusted face 104/100

Poly       4

Average face 138 low face 120/100 high face 165/30

Adjusted face 141 low adjusted 120/100 high adjusted 169/30

SSR         5

Average face 97 low face 92/100 high face 108/30

Adjusted face 95 low adjusted 84/150 high adjusted 100/220

VB          0


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> Are you predicting through 6/30 ??


Pending is such a lagging indicator since they stay up till closing (or even later) that I did not think an estimated had much value.

I also was not expecting the list price to selling price to widen so far apart, so my post 1 guesses should best align with whatever actual sale price data we can find


----------



## bookwormde

5/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50% of average


----------



## Cyberc1978

RoseGold said:


> I've been watching VGF. Pricing was at 155-160 the last couple weeks, and is finally dipping to 150-155.
> 
> My target is 2017 pricing, so about 145, and we might get there!


I think we are already there. This week I made an offer for a loaded(2019 and onwards) 125 contract. We ended up agreeing to $145 and sellers paying closing and me paying 2020 dues.


----------



## Cyberc1978

MICKIMINI said:


> When evaluating a contract I look at:
> UY               Oct  (our personal UY)
> Size             How many points are available reaching back 2 years, current and next year
> #Pts            Number of points in contract annually
> Banked       Useable points in other words, points that do not expire before you can actually rent/transfer/use
> 
> I take the price (my offer) plus closing costs and current year MF's.  My goal is not to pay MF's on past years.  That is the total cost.  I then rent (now I'll likely transfer) the two years but not current or next year.  I take that income off the cost of total cost and then go forward using points.  At some point I will likely flip the contract.  Taxes factor in on rental or transfer.
> 
> I'm currently looking for a 100-160 pt AKL.  My goal price for 100 points is $90 PP (we'll see in 2-3 mo).  Buy 100 pts at $90.  Transfer 200 pts @ $16 = $3200.   Closing $600+/- and MF's (1 yr) $800+/-
> 
> 100 x $90 = $9000 + $600 + $800 = $10400 - $3200 = $7200 net or $72 PP
> 
> It's really just a way to purchase extra points from a loaded contract and reduce the cost of the contract.  I'd spend a lot of time reading disboards and learning all you can about DVC.   I'm not a financial guru or anything, I just try to get the best deal possible and this has worked well for us.  Good luck!


This is what I did late last year when I purchased my SAP contract at SSR it came with last year and current years points. I didn’t pay dues on last years points.

I paid $103 pp and rented the extra 160 Points at $19 pp that lowered the price to $84 plus closing costs.


----------



## bookwormde

5/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 25% of average 

Fidelity continues to have only about 5 new listings a week which appears to be far below historic levels

I am guessing that given that historically fidelity  is the reseller that DVD/DVC provides to member who ask about selling, that with DVD closed that those who are not familiar with the resale market, may be delayed in listing if they need or want to sell, These historically come on the market somewhat at somewhat lower than average asking during times of distress


----------



## bookwormde

5/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60% of average


----------



## macman123

Lower inventory appears to be a common thread:

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2020/
_"In the last 4 weeks, DVCRM has sold 290 contracts compared to 280 contracts over that same period a year ago.  Since March, inventory has shrunk from over 520 listings to under 360 at the time of this article.  That is an over 30% reduction in inventory in less than 2 months.  If inventory continues to shrink, prices will likely not go down, and could even begin to go up again."_


----------



## RoseGold

macman123 said:


> "In the last 4 weeks, DVCRM has sold 290 contracts compared to 280 contracts over that same period a year ago. Since March, inventory has shrunk from over 520 listings to under 360 at the time of this article. That is an over 30% reduction in inventory in less than 2 months. If inventory continues to shrink, prices will likely not go down, and could even begin to go up again."



Haha, good one, guys.


----------



## Cyberc1978

RoseGold said:


> Haha, good one, guys.


Yeah brokers always have an interest in the prices being as high as possible. Lower prices = lower commission.


----------



## Brianstl

> DVCRM had zero buy backs for the entire month of April.  The last buy back we observed was on March 30th.



https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-april-20-report/


----------



## pirate33

I’m a VGF fan and looking at finally buying a contract there.  Based on what I can find, it seems the lowest resale price has been about $120?  Does anyone know of a lower price in the past?


----------



## Cyberc1978

pirate33 said:


> I’m a VGF fan and looking at finally buying a contract there.  Based on what I can find, it seems the lowest resale price has been about $120?  Does anyone know of a lower price in the past?


If you look in the ROFR thread you will find one sneaking by ROfR at $110. But have in mind that it’s years ago.


----------



## pirate33

Cyberc1978 said:


> If you look in the ROFR thread you will find one sneaking by ROfR at $110. But have in mind that it’s years ago.



It’s interesting that the price went down that much from the original direct price ($145) in the absence of a recession and then soared so high.  I wonder what the reasons were.  Perhaps people who financed feeling overextended.  I also have read about people who bought small contracts with the expectation of reserving studios, especially because of the high point requirements for VGF rooms, only to find that too many people had done the same thing and were finding it hard to reserve even at 11 months.  Major point being the value of VGF has not been tested in a recession.  

I’m about to make some lowball offers on contracts.  While I would like about 300 points ultimately, I’m now thinking of buying one for about that half that amount now (150 or 160 points) if I can get a reasonable deal and waiting to see what happens in the fall and winter to decide whether and if to buy the second one.  

BTW, my sense of the new inventory slowing down is that people who don’t have a pressing need to sell will hold their contracts, especially because dues aren’t due until early next year.  Someone mentioned that perhaps potential sellers who are less informed about the process are not getting referrals from Disney at the moment.  Who gives those referrals typically?  MS is open I think.


----------



## Jhoyer5150

Yeah I'll take the other side of the bet about prices going up DVC resale, lol.  That's very optimistic language, to be generous.  Zero ROFR means the safety net has been removed.  Unemployment Friday will show >15% nationally (peak in 2009: 10.4%).  That's the first place to look for new sellers.  Nobody just coming back from WDW who is looking into DVC.  Where is the incremental demand going to come from?  I don't see it.  I do expect that inventory to be higher as we drag on with no usable product and people who can no longer afford to pay on a luxury item such as a timeshare.


----------



## heynowirv

E2ME2 said:


> Don't I wish!
> Def. not me, but it will be interesting to see if it gets through ROFR.  And, if it does, I would like to know what the buyer offered. (and if he/she would be my new BFF and share those points)


If they are on these boards we'll know soon what the selling price was.


----------



## CastAStone

RoseGold said:


> Haha, good one, guys.


Really though. I've been tracking the number of contracts for sale on their site:


But here's the flipside of it - average listing price of what's on the market. Despite falling Supply, asking prices are still coming down (which for anyone who didn't have to take macroeconomics is indicative of demand falling faster than supply):


----------



## Noah_t

CastAStone said:


> I am SO jealous. Nice find. Did you find it on one of the major resale sites or was this something you stumbled across more on your own? And may I ask what asking was?


No need to be jealous.  As the parks will not be opening anytime soon prices are only going to head in one direction.  Disney is in some real trouble and I imagine buying DVC contracts to be very low on their priorities.


----------



## Noah_t

RoseGold said:


> I've been watching VGF. Pricing was at 155-160 the last couple weeks, and is finally dipping to 150-155.
> 
> My target is 2017 pricing, so about 145, and we might get there!


I would be surprised if we dont get their in the next week.


----------



## mamaofsix

Brianstl said:


> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-april-20-report/


Wow!  That is unprecedented, is it not?  Even during past recessions, did Disney ever stop ROFR cold turkey like that?  I sense some amaaaaazing resale prices in the near future.


----------



## Cyberc1978

Noah_t said:


> I would be surprised if we dont get their in the next week.


We are there already. Just received the contract for a 125 points VGf contract. Agreed price is $145 and sellers paying closing.


----------



## Noah_t

As someone who bought a contract about a year ago, BLT 225 Points Fully Loaded for 132/Point I am really feeling buyers remorse right now.  I predict we will see some historically low prices in the near future.  Really hoping I am as wrong about this prediction as I was about DVC holding its value.  I definitley lost some credibility with the finance department.  Thankfully she loved Aulani so much she will attach quite a few bonus points to that decision.


----------



## Cyberc1978

Noah_t said:


> As someone who bought a contract about a year ago, BLT 225 Points Fully Loaded for 132/Point I am really feeling buyers remorse right now.  I predict we will see some historically low prices in the near future.  Really hoping I am as wrong about this prediction as I was about DVC holding its value.  I definitley lost some credibility with the finance department.  Thankfully she loved Aulani so much she will attach quite a few bonus points to that decision.


Long term DVC will hold its value. If prices goes down for a year does not mean anything long term. DVC will do whatever it takes to protect its brand once we are out of the corona. If they don’t who are going to buy direct if resale pricing have plummeted?


----------



## Brianstl

Cyberc1978 said:


> Long term DVC will hold its value. If prices goes down for a year does not mean anything long term. DVC will do whatever it takes to protect its brand once we are out of the corona. If they don’t who are going to buy direct if resale pricing have plummeted?


The same people who buy direct now.  Pixie dusted vacationers and those who want a blue card.  Disney has been preparing themselves for a bottoming out in resale values for years now as the have taken away privileges from resale buyers and put in restrictions on where resale buyers can stay in an attempt to make resale appear as a far inferior product.


----------



## Cyberc1978

Brianstl said:


> The same people who buy direct now.  Pixie dusted vacationers and those who want a blue card.  Disney has been preparing themselves for a bottoming out in resale values for years now as the have taken away privileges from resale buyers and put in restrictions on where resale buyers can stay in an attempt to make resale appear as a far inferior product.


I agree with you as far as what DVC have done but I disagree that the resale prices will go bottom out. There are many years until 2042 and beyond a lot can happen. New management etc and DVC have absolutely no interest in a resale value of close to $0 just like most other timeshares.


----------



## pirate33

Cyberc1978 said:


> This is what I did late last year when I purchased my SAP contract at SSR [ . . . ]
> wered the price



I am probably being clueless but what does SAP mean here?


----------



## Cyberc1978

pirate33 said:


> I am probably being clueless but what does SAP mean here?


Sleep Around Points


----------



## bookwormde

macman123 said:


> Lower inventory appears to be a common thread:
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-april-2020/
> _"In the last 4 weeks, DVCRM has sold 290 contracts compared to 280 contracts over that same period a year ago.  Since March, inventory has shrunk from over 520 listings to under 360 at the time of this article.  That is an over 30% reduction in inventory in less than 2 months.  If inventory continues to shrink, prices will likely not go down, and could even begin to go up again."_


Yes have seen the same thing with DVCresale market and Fidelity. though others have stayed in typical inventory range or even have more.

https://www.atimeshare.com/brand/disney/ and https://www.**********.com/dvc-resale-listings/ both appear to be above their average inventory so it is not consistent though as a total I do think inventory is down some


----------



## pirate33

Cyberc1978 said:


> Sleep Around Points



I get it!  We had a fairly large SSR contract for that purpose that I sold last year.  “SAP” sums it up!


----------



## Cyberc1978

pirate33 said:


> I get it!  We had a fairly large SSR contract for that purpose that I sold last year.  “SAP” sums it up!


Why did you sell it?


----------



## macman123

Brianstl said:


> The same people who buy direct now.  Pixie dusted vacationers and those who want a blue card.  Disney has been preparing themselves for a bottoming out in resale values for years now as the have taken away privileges from resale buyers and put in restrictions on where resale buyers can stay in an attempt to make resale appear as a far inferior product.



I was planning on getting 155 points direct so I could do new resorts such as RVA.......


----------



## pirate33

Cyberc1978 said:


> Why did you sell it?



We had a lot of points (more than 800 total), which I had bought in part because of a large family event 4 or 5 years ago.  Prices had gotten so high that I thought I would lighten up our position and take some profits because our other contracts at BLT and VGC are plenty for our regular family trips.  (And I have no intention of selling those because I love those properties and don’t want to lose the grandfathered privileges.)

As to purchasing now, earlier this year we had another stay at VGF and liked it so much that I started thinking of getting some points there.  I’ve stayed there several times, but this time I had to really struggle to get reservations at seven months for a 1BR for a January stay.  I’m on the West Coast and had to get online at 5:00 a.m. several days in a row to grab my slot, which was not magical.  At the risk of sounding like a Disney marketing person, VGC really does feel like “home,” and I like just hanging out there.   The premium location for 40 years seems like a good value proposition.  I can see going there for a solid week or more every year because as I get older I have more freedom to be away from the office and retirement is within sight.

Short term, prices are coming down, and we have another big family event coming in 2022 where I may need (want) extra points.  So the timing seems good, and I’m content to buy a stripped contract because I don’t need the points immediately (and likewise have plenty of time to wait for a favorable deal).


----------



## bookwormde

5/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average


----------



## chalee94

Cyberc1978 said:


> Long term DVC will hold its value. If prices goes down for a year does not mean anything long term. DVC will do whatever it takes to protect its brand once we are out of the corona. If they don’t who are going to buy direct if resale pricing have plummeted?



I keep saying it but I'll say it again:

1. DVC's value is fundamentally based on the demand for onsite accommodations - not ROFR (ROFR pricing decisions are a consequence of that demand but they don't drive it)
2. DVC is not ROFRing contracts to protect the brand, but to annoy potential buyers into purchasing direct (and sometimes take advantage of their better information about market valuations)
3. Other timeshares continue to sell direct for thousands of dollars while resales can be had for $1 on ebay - the last question is not consistent with what we already know about timeshares

If the parks are a lot different and less "fun" for the next few years, then that will continue to affect demand, and therefore valuations, for DVC.

And ROFR only kicks in AFTER you have found a willing buyer, so if you have to sell lower than some expected ROFR value to get the contract sold, then that is the price that will be agreed upon. Disney might take the contract instead of the individual but ROFR will not "protect" the pricing.


----------



## chalee94

mamaofsix said:


> Wow!  That is unprecedented, is it not?  Even during past recessions, did Disney ever stop ROFR cold turkey like that?  I sense some amaaaaazing resale prices in the near future.



https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-and-the-great-recession-of-2007-2014.3767128/
As I said in this thread, "other than a handful of BCV contracts, Disney dropped all ROFR activity for around 18 months or so, IIRC (during the last recession)."


----------



## kevtlas

Cyberc1978 said:


> Sleep Around Points


​ Perfectly describes my SSR points!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

So ROFR doesn't seem to be a big concern, but, man, these prices really aren't dropping much.  I still can't believe that so many SSR are still $100 and above.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

kevtlas said:


> Perfectly describes my SSR points!


I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.


----------



## Brianstl

Cyberc1978 said:


> I agree with you as far as what DVC have done but I disagree that the resale prices will go bottom out. There are many years until 2042 and beyond a lot can happen. New management etc and DVC have absolutely no interest in a resale value of close to $0 just like most other timeshares.


I don't think DVC will ever drop to the price of some other timeshares, but I do think we are going to be looking at a pretty steep drop in price.  This is a perfect storm for a big price drop.  It isn't just the tanked economy, the fear of travel and decreased demand for resale contracts that is going to depress prices.  

We have a situation that is going to lead to unprecedented downward pressure on the price members can rent out points for.  First, the effective price Disney actually charges for hotel rooms is going drop substantially because of the economy and the fear of travel.  Second, there is significant segment of the point rental community that feels wronged by point rental companies and DVC owners over lack of refunds during the resort closures and they won't be coming back to the rental market.  Third, there is an even larger segment of the point rental community that while they have not been burned to this point are aware of what happened to other renters and will be very hesitant to put themselves into to position where it could happen to them in the future.  Fourth, a large segment of DVC owners are over the age of 65 and will be concerned about doing anything like a WDW trip until there is an effective vaccine.  That is most likely years away and that will lead that group to flood the rental market with points they won't use.

DVC resale is facing owners in a weakened financial position, a significantly decreased value of points on the rental market, a sizable group of owners unable to use their points and smaller demand for the product.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

ChipNdale8887 said:


> I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.



And I was just complaining that they are too high--I guess perspective!


----------



## Sandisw

ChipNdale8887 said:


> I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.



I have 500 at SSR for just that reason! Got them in 2017 for around $73/$75 a points,

I of course own 175 at RIV for food and wind and flower and garden, and am now purchasing BLT to replace my BWV points for Dec stays!

So far, been happy with how I have been able to trade out, especially that it allows me to do 1 bedrooms which makes 7 month choices easier!


----------



## ChipNdale8887

Sandisw said:


> I have 500 at SSR for just that reason! Got them in 2017 for around $73/$75 a points,
> 
> I of course own 175 at RIV for food and wind and flower and garden, and am now purchasing BLT to replace my BWV points for Dec stays!
> 
> So far, been happy with how I have been able to trade out, especially that it allows me to do 1 bedrooms which makes 7 month choices easier!


We are also considering BLT! We plan on having kids soon and nothing NOTHING beats walking to the MK lol. Also could use SSR points pretty easily at BLT Lake view rooms for june and july months it seems!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Sandisw said:


> I have 500 at SSR for just that reason! Got them in 2017 for around $73/$75 a points,



Wow--what a deal!


----------



## kevtlas

ChipNdale8887 said:


> I'm warming up to the idea of buying a SSR contract for SAP lol We also dont hate SSR either and the points are dirt cheap.


We've owned there since 2009 and finally stayed there for the first time over Christmas 2018 lol.


----------



## TinkB278

Seems like any AKL contracts being posted are being bought immediately. The prices listed don’t seem any lower than they were pre-COVID-19:


----------



## ChipNdale8887

TinkB278 said:


> Seems like any AKL contracts being posted are being bought immediately. The prices listed don’t seem any lower than they were pre-COVID-19:


Smaller AKL contracts get bought up very quickly it seems. Especially if ur looking for a certain month. I"ve looked for AKV with a june use year for 3 months and ones under 150 points sell within days. I think AKV is pretty undervalued honestly. If you can get it for 95-105 I think thats a great price even now. in March they were selling for 110-120.


----------



## BWV Dreamin

pirate33 said:


> I’m a VGF fan and looking at finally buying a contract there.  Based on what I can find, it seems the lowest resale price has been about $120?  Does anyone know of a lower price in the past?


When was that price listed? And for how many points? Put a bid in for a 90 point VGF resale for $140/pt. It was declined.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

BWV Dreamin said:


> When was that price listed? And for how many points? Put a bid in for a 90 point VGF resale for $140/pt. It was declined.


That’s interesting.  I feel like your price is reasonable.  For the seller, I don’t see market pricing going up.  I wonder if the market is still that strong or the seller has nor reconciled to what at least seems like it should be a softer market.


----------



## pirate33

BWV Dreamin said:


> When was that price listed? And for how many points? Put a bid in for a 90 point VGF resale for $140/pt. It was declined.



This not recent—around 2016 I think.  I was talking about historical lows.  I don’t recall the number of points.  I was researching generally for the historical lows but I probably wasn’t looking at a contract of <100 points.  Those are never on my radar.


----------



## MICKIMINI

I saw an OCT UY OKW today - perhaps it's been listed for awhile?  It has 0 points for 2020, 2 points for 2021, 220 for 2022.  Absolutely stripped not to mention you would only be able to borrow 50% or 110 in October 2021!  If that isn't bad enough, it can't close UNTIL 1/24/21!  They want $89 PP and closing costs.  Of course, there is a credit for those 2021 points.  I don't think it is worth more than $55-$60 PP and the seller pays closing.  

Apparently they are not in a hurry to sell?


----------



## macman123

Ive just paid $142pp for 200 points at BLT, March UY. 400 for 2020 (200 banked) and 200 for 2021. Decent deal?!


----------



## Cyberc1978

BWV Dreamin said:


> When was that price listed? And for how many points? Put a bid in for a 90 point VGF resale for $140/pt. It was declined.


Just bought a 125 VGF contract at $145 with sellers paying closing. Points 2019 and onwards are available.


----------



## RoseGold

macman123 said:


> Ive just paid $142pp for 200 points at BLT, March UY. 400 for 2020 (200 banked) and 200 for 2021. Decent deal?!



There's listings on the market cheaper than that right now on multiple resellers.


----------



## EM Lawrence

MICKIMINI said:


> I saw an OCT UY OKW today - perhaps it's been listed for awhile?  It has 0 points for 2020, 2 points for 2021, 220 for 2022.  Absolutely stripped not to mention you would only be able to borrow 50% or 110 in October 2021!  If that isn't bad enough, it can't close UNTIL 1/24/21!  They want $89 PP and closing costs.  Of course, there is a credit for those 2021 points.  I don't think it is worth more than $55-$60 PP and the seller pays closing.
> 
> Apparently they are not in a hurry to sell?


One broker has many of this type of listing.  The contracts are stripped until 2022, can’t close until Oct-JAN!!! and they want current prices.  Who would agree to that?? Prices will likely be much lower by the time those contracts close.


----------



## macman123

RoseGold said:


> There's listings on the market cheaper than that right now on multiple resellers.



For a 0 / 400 / 200 contract? Where may I ask? I look at all of the brokers........


----------



## CastAStone

macman123 said:


> Ive just paid $142pp for 200 points at BLT, March UY. 400 for 2020 (200 banked) and 200 for 2021. Decent deal?!


People on the ROFR thread have been paying between $130 and $140 for BLT, including some double points contracts, with those generally (but not always) closer to that $140.

If you are happy with $142 and it’s exactly what you want, why sweat after it’s too late as to whether you overpaid? It’s maybe $400 on a $30000 contract. I drove myself nuts one time because I figured out after the fact that I could have gotten the guy down another 1-2% on my wife’s new car. I eventually realized that I was really happy that we got a great car and I honestly would have paid 2 grand more for it if that’s what the price was.


----------



## Sandisw

macman123 said:


> Ive just paid $142pp for 200 points at BLT, March UY. 400 for 2020 (200 banked) and 200 for 2021. Decent deal?!



If it makes you feel better, I am paying $150/pt.  But it was the right UY,  a100 point contract..which was In the range I wanted to be and hade triple points...2018, 2019, and 2020.

I figure it’s about $10/ higher than I should have  paid, but in the long run, the extra $1k was worth it for the perfect contract...which this was for me.

Not to mention, that the money I am getting for selling BWV will cover the entire cost, which was really my first priority right now,

In a couple years, I’ll add more if need be! Lol


----------



## macman123

Ah. I am happy with the deal. I have bonus points and I got them down from $155.
I have another contract which I brought 2 weeks ago for $139pp, so not much difference for the same contract with same points (inc banked)


----------



## squirrel!33

Assuming you will be able to use the banked points in the next year, I think this is a very good price for double points based on the prices that have been listed.


----------



## John Purcell

bookwormde said:


> Where do you think DVC resale prices are headed?
> 
> Below is the average asking on the aggregating site and my guesses for what resale contacts that come on the market will average for the next 6 months, what are yours?
> 
> actuals in (###)
> .
> .........3/20     .....4/1         ............5/1         ...6/1         7/1         8/1         9/1
> 
> 
> 
> AKV 114 110(107) 105(110) 100 96 92 90
> 
> AUL 101 98(97) 95(98) 90 85 82 80
> 
> BLT 150 140(147) 135(144) 130 128 124 124
> 
> BCV 147 145(150) 140(143) 135 132 130 128
> 
> BWV 126 120(120) 115(120) 110 106 103 100
> 
> BRV 100 95(100) 90(96) 85 80 76 72
> 
> CCV 155 150(150) 142(155) 136 128 125 125
> 
> VGF 177 172(170) 168(163) 165 162 160 158
> 
> HH 81 78(76) 72(77) 68 65 62 60
> 
> OKW 102 97(101) 90(104) 84 78 72 70
> 
> POLY 148 142(131) 136(136) 130 125 120 120
> 
> SS 106 100(105) 94(100) 88 85 82 80
> 
> VB 67 64(68) 60(64) 56 52 50 48



This is my FIRST EVER reply on this site. And I am a huge longtime fan. In fact I am an avid fan on a competitor and they let me post to your opinions (!).

Here are some counteroffers I refused due to the fact that DVC contracts (especially middle aged ones) are crashing.
Yesterday: 100 points. SSR.  $80 per point
Today (I thought it was the same, but not, different usage, etc) : $80 per point
Saturday: AKL $91 per point /220 points
Boardwalk- 40 min ago. $100/ point - 200 points

(NONE stripped, two did have high closing fees - $900-$1400)

Guys and gals, things are out there and we’ll priced.But there’s a dam about to break when opportunists leave after further depreciation. When volume thins, who knows when, but more importantly who knows how low the point values can go


----------



## Drewferin

John Purcell said:


> This is my FIRST EVER reply on this site. And I am a huge longtime fan. In fact I am an avid fan on a competitor and they let me post to your opinions (!).
> 
> Here are some counteroffers I refused due to the fact that DVC contracts (especially middle aged ones) are crashing.
> Yesterday: 100 points. SSR.  $80 per point
> Today (I thought it was the same, but not, different usage, etc) : $80 per point
> Saturday: AKL $91 per point /220 points
> Boardwalk- 40 min ago. $100/ point - 200 points
> 
> (NONE stripped, two did have high closing fees - $900-$1400)
> 
> Guys and gals, things are out there and we’ll priced.But there’s a dam about to break when opportunists leave after further depreciation. When volume thins, who knows when, but more importantly who knows how low the point values can go


Which brokers were these mainly listed with?


----------



## sky2823

Let me preface this by saying, I don’t think Disney will declare bankruptcy.  However, hypothetically say covid sticks around for longer than everyone thinks and the parks and cruise lines are closed.  Does anyone know what happens to DVC contracts if there is a Disney bankruptcy (reorg)?   Do we retain our rights to the deeds when the exit bankruptcy?


----------



## bookwormde

5/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> 5/5 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


Good thing the resale markets are getting increased listings lately to fulfill their higher demand at increasing prices


----------



## DisMomKY

John Purcell said:


> This is my FIRST EVER reply on this site. And I am a huge longtime fan. In fact I am an avid fan on a competitor and they let me post to your opinions (!).
> 
> Here are some counteroffers I refused due to the fact that DVC contracts (especially middle aged ones) are crashing.
> Yesterday: 100 points. SSR.  $80 per point
> Today (I thought it was the same, but not, different usage, etc) : $80 per point
> Saturday: AKL $91 per point /220 points
> Boardwalk- 40 min ago. $100/ point - 200 points
> 
> (NONE stripped, two did have high closing fees - $900-$1400)
> 
> Guys and gals, things are out there and we’ll priced.But there’s a dam about to break when opportunists leave after further depreciation. When volume thins, who knows when, but more importantly who knows how low the point values can go


Where are you finding these


----------



## Noles235

DisMomKY said:


> Where are you finding these


I’m not seeing any prices like those the poster listed with any of the resellers I look at nor have I seen any transactions posted on the ROFR message board with these prices.


----------



## DisMomKY

Noles235 said:


> I’m not seeing any prices like those the poster listed with any of the resellers I look at nor have I seen any transactions posted on the ROFR message board with these prices.


Me either, that’s why I was asking


----------



## mamaofsix

DisMomKY said:


> Me either, that’s why I was asking


If I'm reading their post correctly, they are listing the prices of counteroffers that they refused.  So, you wouldn't be able to find the prices on any reseller sites, because they are counteroffers.


----------



## Noles235

mamaofsix said:


> If I'm reading their post correctly, they are listing the prices of counteroffers that they refused.  So, you wouldn't be able to find the prices on any reseller sites, because they are counteroffers.


They must be making incredibly low offers to get that type of counteroffer. I don’t think most posters on this board make an offer below those prices that are turned down.


----------



## AKNOTTS66

Noles235 said:


> They must be making incredibly low offers to get that type of counteroffer. I don’t think most posters on this board make an offer below those prices that are turned down.


Those counter offers being so low must be shocking a lot of sellers that they aren't accepting them. If I was in the market for any of those resorts I'd take those prices in a heartbeat. I'd imagine its frustrating a lot of the agents also that are taking your offers to the seller. I'd be a little careful if this is all at one resale website, they might think your wasting their time if you aren't taking any of those offers.


----------



## Noles235

AKNOTTS66 said:


> Those counter offers being so low must be shocking a lot of sellers that they aren't accepting them. If I was in the market for any of those resorts I'd take those prices in a heartbeat. I'd imagine its frustrating a lot of the agents also that are taking your offers to the seller. I'd be a little careful if this is all at one resale website, they might think your wasting their time if you aren't taking any of those offers.


I’d love to know what site as I may see about picking up an additional or two.


----------



## Cyberc1978

Noles235 said:


> I’d love to know what site as I may see about picking up an additional or two.


Historically fidelity have had the lowest prices.


----------



## mamaofsix

Noles235 said:


> They must be making incredibly low offers to get that type of counteroffer. I don’t think most posters on this board make an offer below those prices that are turned down.


I think the point they were trying to make was that they believe the prices are about to tank, which is why they refused the counter offers.  Maybe most people on these boards would not have made an offer that low in the past, but that's about to change big time.  I believe that's the point the poster was trying to make.


----------



## AKNOTTS66

Noles235 said:


> I’d love to know what site as I may see about picking up an additional or two.


It has to be a bunch of sites and OP must be cherry picking listings that have been up for a couple months I'd imagine. DVCresalemarket.com does show the date a listing is listed so you can tell how long its been up. OP also might not care about use year so it gives them tons of flexibility.


----------



## AKNOTTS66

mamaofsix said:


> I think the point they were trying to make was that they believe the prices are about to tank, which is why they refused the counter offers.  Maybe most people on these boards would not have made an offer that low in the past, but that's about to change big time.  I believe that's the point the poster was trying to make.


I do think prices will go down some but availability is something to really watch. Less contracts creates a supply and demand issue. Which might slow price drops. A huge factor also depends on the sellers desperation and ability to hold it and wait.


----------



## BWV Dreamin

I feel the broker was the obstacle in this offer. Took two days and two calls and email to present the offer. Contract has been listed since February. I’ll wait......


----------



## Brianstl

Noles235 said:


> They must be making incredibly low offers to get that type of counteroffer. I don’t think most posters on this board make an offer below those prices that are turned down.


At this I would


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

I've made four low balls--not super crazy...low 80's on SSR(150 pt)  that are in the upper 90's range and none have dipped below 94 and some of the brokers(all from 4 different websites) have indicated that 94 was market value and the only price to be ROFR approved.

I want to know where he is making offers.  Talk to me, John Purcell, please.


----------



## MICKIMINI

It is obvious that prices are not _going up_ and there is a smaller pool of buyers every day.  There are so many reports from regular posters saying _some_ brokers (or gate keepers) are trying to hold prices up by dismissing offers, suggesting DVC will take by ROFR (none right now) or trying to guilt a buyer into making a bigger offer or outright shaming them.  If this turns out to be true, it will be a sad disservice to the sellers that should have the opportunity to make up their own minds.  It might make the difference between paying the mortgage or not - as other offers may not happen.   To be clear, we don't know the extent of this trend but the amount of reports is piling up.

I have yet to find my contract but I am looking forward to making offers as I have plenty of experience buying and selling DVC...and though it's okay if my offer is declined I want to know the _owner_ made the call.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

I just spoke to a broker who was very cool with the idea of trying to get a good deal through ROFR; that was a nice change. 

BUT it was also indicated that people are still buying In a close range (-$5) to the prices listed.

So, everyone, quit buying now!!!


----------



## MICKIMINI

ABE4DISNEY said:


> I just spoke to a broker who was very cool with the idea of trying to get a good deal through ROFR; that was a nice change.
> 
> BUT it was also indicated that people are still buying In a close range (-$5) to the prices listed.
> 
> So, everyone, quit buying now!!!


I doubt it.   More BS...there is no ROFR currently.  I really like particular brokers from three agencies and can talk to them with great honesty as they know I know the market.  I haven't bought/sold since last spring. 

That statement leads me to believe that there are not many sales right now and they are referring to "recent" (like 3 months worth) sales, spinning the story without lying.  So that might be very true in that respect, however it can not be true in the last 3-4 weeks, nope!

Most of us can't find what we want yet, so no worries until that October Unicorn shows up and then all bets are off!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

MICKIMINI said:


> I doubt it.   More BS...there is no ROFR currently.  I really like particular brokers from three agencies and can talk to them with great honesty as they know I know the market.  I haven't bought/sold since last spring.
> 
> That statement leads me to believe that there are not many sales right now and they are referring to "recent" (like 3 months worth) sales, spinning the story without lying.  So that might be very true in that respect, however it can not be true in the last 3-4 weeks, nope!
> 
> Most of us can't find what we want yet, so no worries until that October Unicorn show up and then all bets are off!



I don't have a unicorn; I have about 5-6 options, but none of the sellers want to deal with me.    And that's okay.  I understand.  

But I told the broker to call me  when someone wants to unload a nice little contract.


----------



## Brianstl

ABE4DISNEY said:


> I don't have a unicorn; I have about 5-6 options, but none of the sellers want to deal with me.    And that's okay.  I understand.
> 
> But I told the broker to call me  when someone wants to unload a nice little contract.


If those contracts are still on the market in two weeks, go back and offer less.


----------



## Noles235

Brianstl said:


> If those contracts are still on the market in two weeks, go back and offer less.


I need a better way to keep track of listings I have put a bid in for. After awhile, many look the same.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Noles235 said:


> I need a better way to keep track of listings I have put a bid in for. After awhile, many look the same.


I print a copy of the listing from the broker and make notes on that.  Hang on to all of them until you close and get your points just in case you want to go back and make another offer.

Simple, but effective!  Good luck!


----------



## bookwormde

ABE4DISNEY said:


> I just spoke to a broker who was very cool with the idea of trying to get a good deal through ROFR; that was a nice change.
> 
> BUT it was also indicated that people are still buying In a close range (-$5) to the prices listed.
> 
> So, everyone, quit buying now!!!


while there are some sales that are tracking close to asking, there are many more close to or more than $10 below asking. This was confirmed by a TSS rep on the podcast


----------



## EM Lawrence

There are a couple of contracts I made really fair offers on ($10 below asking) that are still available, so I kind of doubt the $5 less than asking bit.


----------



## jarestel

Sandisw said:


> I of course own 175 at RIV for food and wind


Sandisw, I know this is a typo, but I really love this description of food and wine!


----------



## pirate33

Another VGF contract just posted on ROFR board below $150 per point.


----------



## bookwormde

5/6 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average


----------



## Cyberc1978

pirate33 said:


> Another VGF contract just posted on ROFR board below $150 per point.


When mine is sent to rofr I’ll post it too.


----------



## macman123

I have the DVC Resale Market app.

They had a contract for BLT 175 Points at $148pp. However 10 hours later I had another notification that the same contract went UP to $150pp.......


----------



## TinkB278

I just feel like new contracts are being purchased so quickly... I expected the opposite to be true with job loses, the parks closed, and potential major changes in the parks going forward. I just think it’s bizarre.


----------



## DisMomKY

TinkB278 said:


> I just feel like new contracts are being purchased so quickly... I expected the opposite to be true with job loses, the parks closed, and potential major changes in the parks going forward. I just think it’s bizarre.


We are selling some of our contracts high and buying low, others may be doing that as well. We just sold an AKL and SSR and are buying an SSR cheaper


----------



## TinkB278

DisMomKY said:


> We are selling some of our contracts high and buying low, others may be doing that as well. We just sold an AKL and SSR and are buying an SSR cheaper



Is there some trick in being able to buy low with how much demand there seems to be right now? I’ve missed out of a few contracts I’ve been interested in because they sell so fast despite the listing price not being any lower than normal. I’m wanting an AKL contract around 120ish points and it seems like they sell within hours so I can’t imagine offering less than the asking price.


----------



## DisMomKY

TinkB278 said:


> Is there some trick in being able to buy low with how much demand there seems to be right now? I’ve missed out of a few contracts I’ve been interested in because they sell so fast despite the listing price not being any lower than normal. I’m wanting an AKL contract around 120ish points and it seems like they sell within hours so I can’t imagine offering less than the asking price.


I just offer til I get someone to bite at what I am okay spending. I wanted 200 pts at SSR under 90 per point so I kept offering til I got it


----------



## lovethesun12

TinkB278 said:


> I just feel like new contracts are being purchased so quickly... I expected the opposite to be true with job loses, the parks closed, and potential major changes in the parks going forward. I just think it’s bizarre.


It is interesting. Maybe more people are also bored and that's the reason? Or people who were watching the market for a certain price are finally getting that price.

They do say the more times you click on a website the more likely you are to buy something....


----------



## macman123

lovethesun12 said:


> Or people who were watching the market for a certain price are finally getting that price.



Thats exactly what I did. I was watching like a hawk. I knew the contract I wanted and price I was willing to pay. it was just a case of waiting, waiting, waiting.........

Then when it came up, I made a really low offer, I knew it wouldn't be accepted but wondered what seller would counter with, so I knew what they may end up accepting.


----------



## OSUZorba

macman123 said:


> I have the DVC Resale Market app.
> 
> They had a contract for BLT 175 Points at $148pp. However 10 hours later I had another notification that the same contract went UP to $150pp.......


There look to be quite a few below $150 listed right now.


----------



## poofyo101

There has been no reduction in price. It also seems like contracts are moving faster than before IMO.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> There has been no reduction in price. It also seems like contracts are moving faster than before IMO.


The first part is empirically untrue. Look through the ROFR thread or in particular the DVCResaleMarket monthly sell price blog posts.

The second part is less clear; 200+ point contracts seem to be sitting forever, as do many VGF and non-park contracts. 100 point contracts at the WDW resorts OTOH are often failing to make it a day.


----------



## Jaguar Skills

DisMomKY said:


> I just offer til I get someone to bite at what I am okay spending. I wanted 200 pts at SSR under 90 per point so I kept offering til I got it



@DisMomKY can I ask when this was?  This is exactly what we are looking at.


----------



## DisMomKY

Jaguar Skills said:


> @DisMomKY can I ask when this was?  This is exactly what we are looking at.


Sure! It was on Www.*************.com. It was priced higher than that, at 93 per point. Just have to find a seller willing to budge


----------



## bookwormde

5/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average


----------



## BWV Dreamin

CastAStone said:


> The first part is empirically untrue. Look through the ROFR thread or in particular the DVCResaleMarket monthly sell price blog posts.
> 
> The second part is less clear; 200+ point contracts seem to be sitting forever, as do many VGF and non-park contracts. 100 point contracts at the WDW resorts OTOH are often failing to make it a day.


I have noticed a glut of VGF contracts on that site. Yet they will not budge on the list price. Obviously brokers are the obstacle here.


----------



## bseas

Brand new to DVC, but I've worked in the travel industry and followed Disney for 15+ years. I just entered into contract for a 100 point SSR at $93/point, fully loaded with all 2019, 2020, and 2021 points. Seller had listed at $105, my original offer was $91, they countered at $95, and agreed to "meet in the middle" at $93. I'm happy with the deal that I got. 

Sure, it may go lower in the next few months, but I am a cash buyer and know that I got a great value in the long term. Based upon historical data, I believe that values will return to a level in which I can sell and still come out ahead after commissions after five years, with a few great vacations in between. I made offers on several contracts before getting this one at the price I did, and the most important thing for me in the short term was to be able to close before the 11-month reservation window for my next trip. If prices continue to drop, I'm already contemplating another purchase at BLT, Poly, or AKL later in the year.


----------



## CastAStone

BWV Dreamin said:


> I have noticed a glut of VGF contracts on that site. Yet they will not budge on the list price. Obviously brokers are the obstacle here.


53 of the 59 VGF contracts on that site have been listed for at least 30 days. I've been tracking. They list their average resale price for VGF for April as $157; 53 of the 59 listed contracts are asking for more than that; 2/3rds are asking for at least $10 more than that, 18 are asking $20 more than that. Two are asking over $200.


----------



## macman123

CastAStone said:


> 53 of the 59 VGF contracts on that site have been listed for at least 30 days. I've been tracking. They list their average resale price for VGF for April as $157; 53 of the 59 listed contracts are asking for more than that; 2/3rds are asking for at least $10 more than that, 18 are asking $20 more than that. Two are asking over $200.



The market will dictate the price I guess. If they are happy to sit on them and wait for an offer at or near their asking price then all well and good.

If they should come into need of cash urgently then their 'deal price' will reflect that. The market will dictate the prices based on demand and sellers who may / may not be willing to negotiate......


----------



## gtfpjames

TinkB278 said:


> Is there some trick in being able to buy low with how much demand there seems to be right now? I’ve missed out of a few contracts I’ve been interested in because they sell so fast despite the listing price not being any lower than normal. I’m wanting an AKL contract around 120ish points and it seems like they sell within hours so I can’t imagine offering less than the asking price.


We just made a deal on a 220 point AKL @ 102/PT they were asking 108, we offered 98 and we settled 102. Based on the last 12 month averages we are happy with that. This is our first ever DVC purchase and we figured we were not going to let a few dollars/point keep us from buying if we found something we liked. Good Luck!


----------



## bseas

gtfpjames said:


> We just made a deal on a 220 point AKL @ 102/PT they were asking 108, we offered 98 and we settled 102. Based on the last 12 month averages we are happy with that. This is our first ever DVC purchase and we figured we were not going to let a few dollars/point keep us from buying if we found something we liked. Good Luck!



That was my exact thought with my SSR contract. They were asking $105, I offered $91, and we settled at $93, which is well below the last 12 month averages, especially for the size of contract that I bought. Could I have gotten it for $88 or 90 if I had waited another month or two, maybe? But it would have pushed me closer to my first planned usage of my points and availability may have forced me into a higher point room size or view type. Values will recover over the next few years, and my purchase will look like a great value. I'm satisfied, and will likely look to purchase another contract at a different home resort if prices continue to fall in the coming months. It is a buyer's market, and I'll take advantage.


----------



## bookwormde

5/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


----------



## macman123

bookwormde said:


> 5/8 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average



These are really helpful. I assume though if average daily is always above 100% then the daily average gradually goes up too?


----------



## bookwormde

macman123 said:


> These are really helpful. I assume though if average daily is always above 100% then the daily average gradually goes up too?


The basis of average is fixed and based on the 6 months before covid


----------



## lovethesun12

I wonder why there are so few listings at www.fidelityresales.com ? They usually have a large number

I guess it's because most of their listings come from Disney, and Disney is closed?


----------



## bookwormde

lovethesun12 said:


> I wonder why there are so few listings at www.fidelityresales.com ? They usually have a large number
> 
> I guess it's because most of their listings come from Disney, and Disney is closed?


by reports, the sales side at DVD is not taking calls so the assumption is that they are closed The sale processing side appears to be open though the level of staffing is suspect.

Fidelity has dropped their commission rate and are picking up more resales than a couple of weeks ago, though it is still well below normal.

It will we interesting to see if there is pent up selling demand that goes to fidelity when DVD reopens sales


----------



## macman123

bookwormde said:


> by reports, the sales side at DVD is not taking calls so the assumption is that they are closed The sale processing side appears to be open though the level of staffing is suspect.
> 
> Fidelity has dropped their commission rate and are picking up more resales than a couple of weeks ago, though it is still well below normal.
> 
> It will we interesting to see if there is pent up selling demand that goes to fidelity when DVD reopens sales



I assume Fidelity is the broker which DVC recommends?


----------



## bookwormde

macman123 said:


> I assume Fidelity is the broker which DVC recommends?


Historically they have been, but I have not had any confirmation in recent months


----------



## bookwormde

5/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average


----------



## macman123

bookwormde said:


> 5/9 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average



I guess weekends tend to be quieter?


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> 5/9 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average


Can you post a weekly average? The daily numbers seem to bounce around so much


----------



## Hopfather28

Prices are definitely falling. I offered 80% of list value on a PVB and it was accepted.


----------



## jberndt10

Hopfather28 said:


> Prices are definitely falling. I offered 80% of list value on a PVB and it was accepted.


What do you mean list value, 80% of asking price?


----------



## Hopfather28

jberndt10 said:


> What do you mean list value, 80% of asking price?


Yes sorry wrong lingo. 80% of what the seller had it listed for and was asking for. Specifically, $120 is what I am paying.


----------



## jamier2

Hopfather28 said:


> Yes sorry wrong lingo. 80% of what the seller had it listed for and was asking for. Specifically, $120 is what I am paying.



Wow, that's a great deal. I just offered 125 on one listed at 132 and they apparently countered, then decided they didn't want to sell at all.

I  hope I find a deal soon. We just  decided to buy yesterday, and I'm already on my 3rd offer.


----------



## Hopfather28

jamier2 said:


> Wow, that's a great deal. I just offered 125 on one listed at 132 and they apparently countered, then decided they didn't want to sell at all.
> 
> I  hope I find a deal soon. We just  decided to buy yesterday, and I'm already on my 3rd offer.


I was disappointed that I had an offer on 150pt contract countered (very high mind you). We had wanted a 250 pt contract but had considered doing a 150 because we could add the 100 later. We found a 250 pt on Thursday and offered 10 minutes after an offer was accepted. Then this one came along. It's bigger than we had planned (aw darn lol) and we offered low assuming a counter but no counter just acceptance.

My point in all of this is...be patient. You'll find that  perfect  one out there. 

It helped that we didn't need any 2020 points as I'm not itching to go back during the reopening experiment.


----------



## Kenito

Just had my offer for BLT, fully loaded for 2020 and beyond, accepted at $125 pp.  Disney took my $129 BLT with no 2020 points this past March, so hopefully ROFR will remain dormant.  Will add to the ROFR thread with details after contract sent.


----------



## macman123

Wow. How many points was it?


----------



## Hopfather28

Kenito said:


> Just had my offer for BLT, fully loaded for 2020 and beyond, accepted at $125 pp.  Disney took my $129 BLT with no 2020 points this past March, so hopefully ROFR will remain dormant.  Will add to the ROFR thread with details after contract sent.


Now on to the last hurdle. I'll hope for you and I to both pass ROFR  now. That's a great deal on BLT. I was firmly in the "DISNEY WON'T TAKE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW" camp until I had a signed contract now I am on pins and needles.


----------



## zavandor

jamier2 said:


> Wow, that's a great deal. I just offered 125 on one listed at 132 and they apparently countered, then decided they didn't want to sell at all.
> 
> I  hope I find a deal soon. We just  decided to buy yesterday, and I'm already on my 3rd offer.


It's switching to a buyer market and prices are coming down every day. Be patient and you'll find your deal!


----------



## bookwormde

5/10 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average

Best estimate is that the week of 5/4 to 5/10 was about 105% of average


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 5/10 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average
> 
> Best estimate is that the week of 5/4 to 5/10 was about 105% of average


Any significant movement on prices yet ?


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Just a side note...DH is in finance.  He told me today that Disney is coming to market again with another debt deal which is indicative that they are looking to stay more liquid and are unsure of the future.  This makes me believe that ROFR will be on the bottom of the list for their use of funds.


----------



## chris_ant

E2ME2 said:


> Any significant movement on prices yet ?


It doesn't seem like it, but I wonder when/if we will see anything but slow incremental drop.  We have to remember this group is a high concentration of extremely savvy DVC buyers.  We see consistent great deals, but not necessarily in great numbers.  Many people are bouncing lots of low offers that may produce 1 hit.  (But hey, that is all it takes!  )  There appears to be enough less educated buyers in the market that is propping up these prices.  They may see PVB at $145 and think that is a $100 per point savings from direct and think that is a great deal.  Until this stream of buyers thins, I don't think we see big drops.  I think the lower offers this community is placing may have medium term effects on sellers, but we still see sellers staring somewhat firm if they can afford to hold.


----------



## CastAStone

ABE4DISNEY said:


> Just a side note...DH is in finance.  He told me today that Disney is coming to market again with another debt deal which is indicative that they are looking to stay more liquid and are unsure of the future.  This makes me believe that ROFR will be on the bottom of the list for their use of funds.


Indeed they are - looks like exact dollar amounts and rates have yet to be finalized. From TWDC website this morning:

https://otp.tools.investis.com/clie...gId=14135672&Cik=0001744489&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Hubby predicts minimum 3 billion across 6 different maturities.


----------



## rich dream vacations

According to DVCRESALEMARKET, with news of a potential park reopening soon, that they are seeing resale inventory drop and prices start to climb again (avg price per point was higher in April than March). This is kind of what I projected so I wanted to get my offer in and accepted before the market gets readjusted. I think sellers panicked or needed cash, buyers the last 60 days got great deals. I think these deals will not last much longer (at least for contracts under 200 points). You are starting to see less and less of these small contracts for sale already.


----------



## jamier2

ABE4DISNEY said:


> This makes me believe that ROFR will be on the bottom of the list for their use of funds.



I hope that lasts at least until I get one passed.


----------



## dismom58

CastAStone said:


> Indeed they are - looks like exact dollar amounts and rates have yet to be finalized. From TWDC website this morning:
> 
> https://otp.tools.investis.com/clie...gId=14135672&Cik=0001744489&Type=PDF&hasPdf=1


This could be them seeing zero interest rates on the treasuries I would wait for a rate declaration that would tell us a lot if it’s over going rates their finding it hard to get financing if not might just be opportunistic offer to lower debt servicing on fox deal


----------



## AKNOTTS66

rich dream vacations said:


> According to DVCRESALEMARKET, with news of a potential park reopening soon, that they are seeing resale inventory drop and prices start to climb again (avg price per point was higher in April than March). This is kind of what I projected so I wanted to get my offer in and accepted before the market gets readjusted. I think sellers panicked or needed cash, buyers the last 60 days got great deals. I think these deals will not last much longer (at least for contracts under 200 points). You are starting to see less and less of these small contracts for sale already.


I don't think this is really correct. People losing their jobs and needing to sell their contracts will not change if the parks reopen or announce a reopening.  This does not bring their income back. I honestly think this is DVCRESALEMARKET's way of trying to spin the market and keep prices high.


----------



## glamdring269

AKNOTTS66 said:


> I don't think this is really correct. People losing their jobs and needing to sell their contracts will not change if the parks reopen or announce a reopening.  This does not bring their income back. I honestly think this is DVCRESALEMARKET's way of trying to spin the market and keep prices high.



Yeah and parks reopening is just a blip of data in a long stream of data. This is going to unfold over several future months and not suddenly stabilize just because the parks open. The parks were open during the entire great recession as well.


----------



## FireworksEverAfter

AKNOTTS66 said:


> I don't think this is really correct. People losing their jobs and needing to sell their contracts will not change if the parks reopen or announce a reopening.  This does not bring their income back. I honestly think this is DVCRESALEMARKET's way of trying to spin the market and keep prices high.



I was literally just posting the same thing.  I would expect the prices to go down and inventory to go up.  Let's also remember a lot of those who are unemployed are still getting a $600 stimulus increase.  When that goes away things will most likely change.


----------



## Lorana

As many indicated, I would expect to see real drops towards the end of the year/beginning of next.  If I were to lose my job tomorrow and not be able to get a new one, those looming MFs on top of a long stretch of unemployment would be the thing that would convince me to sell some of my DVC.


----------



## AKNOTTS66

The only thing that will keep prices higher is a smaller inventory. That also has to balance with continued sales. If the resale website isn't making money because contracts aren't selling because prices are higher, there goes their commissions so after a while they too will want to lower prices to sell contracts. If people do decide and are trying to ride out this lower priced market and inventory dries up, prices could remain high but if they don't sell the agents will likely try to talk the sellers into taking less causing prices to come down.


----------



## heynowirv

Cyberc1978 said:


> Sleep Around Points


Oh you sluts...... LOL


----------



## heynowirv

AKNOTTS66 said:


> I don't think this is really correct. People losing their jobs and needing to sell their contracts will not change if the parks reopen or announce a reopening.  This does not bring their income back. I honestly think this is DVCRESALEMARKET's way of trying to spin the market and keep prices high.


I wholeheartedly agree with you on that.Every other contract under 100 points they list as "Only Full Price Accepted".That's just how they roll.


----------



## CarolMN

FireworksEverAfter said:


> I was literally just posting the same thing.  I would expect the prices to go down and inventory to go up.  Let's also remember a lot of those who are unemployed are still getting a $600 stimulus increase.  When that goes away things will most likely change.


Another perspective:

A WHOLE LOT of us owners have fully paid contracts and have owned for a long time.  We don't need to sell and can easily afford to let  contract sit waiting for an offer we're willing to accept.   Those of us who wanted out probably already sold to cash in on the higher prices. 

IMO, only those who probably shouldn't have purchased (especially if they financed) will HAVE to sell, and it's a good bet that most of those are fairly recent purchases. Those folks probably can't afford to bring money to the table, either and will want a higher price than many here are willing to pay.

I'm not all that sure that prices are going to drop significantly anytime soon.  JMHO.  YMMV.


----------



## linzjane88

We are fortunate to not have our jobs impacted at this time (although both mine and DH's employers are announcing cost cutting measures like hiring freezes, halting 401k match, and no annual bonuses). However, if we suddenly had two months with us being out of work that would change our discretionary spending drastically. We would be calling off vacations for the foreseeable future and considering selling things we don't need (DVC!). I don't know much about stocks and the economy but its hard for me to fathom how this wouldn't have a longer impact on DVC markets until people get caught back up.

My husbands theory is that the people that are out of work (lower wage retail, restaurant, etc) are not necessarily the ones that had loads of discretionary spending available to use on Disney trips before this happened and maybe there won't be as much impact. Who knows!


----------



## Kenito

macman123 said:


> Wow. How many points was it?



320


----------



## glamdring269

CarolMN said:


> Another perspective:
> 
> A WHOLE LOT of us owners have fully paid contracts and have owned for a long time.  We don't need to sell and can easily afford to let  contract sit waiting for an offer we're willing to accept.   Those of us who wanted out probably already sold to cash in on the higher prices.
> 
> IMO, only those who probably shouldn't have purchased (especially if they financed) will HAVE to sell, and it's a good bet that most of those are fairly recent purchases. Those folks probably can't afford to bring money to the table, either and will want a higher price than many here are willing to pay.
> 
> I'm not all that sure that prices are going to drop significantly anytime soon.  JMHO.  YMMV.



One other perspective, and I think you actually commented on my thread about this. We had a small contract at a 2042 resort and were likely not going until fall of 21 at earliest, more likely 22. I decided to go ahead and bail due to potential short-term risk, coupled with the fact that we know 2042 resorts are eventually going to have to drop in price. If you're in a position to move out now with no risk to future travel plans, and then wait and see on the market, it's likely not a terrible play.

Timing the market is never really doable but seems like this is as decent a time to gamble as any on trading out of a 2042 resort if you're not attached to it.


----------



## Kenito

Hopfather28 said:


> Now on to the last hurdle. I'll hope for you and I to both pass ROFR  now. That's a great deal on BLT. I was firmly in the "DISNEY WON'T TAKE ANYTHING RIGHT NOW" camp until I had a signed contract now I am on pins and needles.



I hope so too! I wasn’t surprised Disney took my $129 BLT in March. I think anything below $130 was taken (even though some double point contracts in the mid-130’s passed).  So we’ll see.   I want this to be my last purchase....until Anahiem!


----------



## jamier2

Woohoo!! Our third offer was accepted! We have yet to sign and send to ROFR but the sellers said they are good with it. Makes me wish we had offered less, but honestly we are happy with the deal we got. They were asking 146.

PVB 150 points at 136 per. April UY, has 205 points on 2020 and 150 from then on.


----------



## AKNOTTS66

jamier2 said:


> Woohoo!! Our third offer was accepted! We have yet to sign and send to ROFR but the sellers said they are good with it. Makes me wish we had offered less, but honestly we are happy with the deal we got.
> 
> PVB 150 points at 136 per.


how many points are available on this contract? did it have 2019 or 2020 points?


----------



## jamier2

AKNOTTS66 said:


> how many points are available on this contract? did it have 2019 or 2020 points?



It has 150 2020 points and 55 banked points from 2019. April use year.


----------



## AKNOTTS66

jamier2 said:


> It has 150 2020 points and 55 banked points from 2019. April use year.


Thats a good price.  We were looking at one that was missing 70% of its 2020 points.


----------



## jamier2

We are pretty happy with it. The spread of prices - asking at least - was surprising to me.

I made a spreadsheet to compare contracts. I put in the price and points and then charted the next three years of points and used the total price divided by those years to get what I hope was a better idea of the true value. Some contracts priced higher actually ended up costing less per point - for the first three years at least - than some that were cheaper but stripped of points. It made more of a difference than I expected. For instance, the one we got, if you divide the total price of $20,400 by the 505 points we have in the first 3 years, it ends up being right at $40 per point. I saw one sell for $120 per point for 275 point contract that ended up costing $59 per point for the first 3 years.

Obviously if this is spread out over more years the difference would be much less, but it made me feel better about which one we picked.


----------



## glamdring269

How do you typically weigh contracts based on available points? Assuming a contract on average is as follows then how do you weigh the subsequent scenarios?

$150 per point
19/20/21
100/100/100
*Assume $150 per point is reasonably assumed to be the optimal buyer/seller agreement.

Option 1: 0/100/100
Option 2: 0/0/100
Option 3: 0/0/0

How much would you devalue from $150 per point in each of the different scenarios?

For me... directionally:
Option 1: -$10 (assuming I could rent points that aren't there and buyer is paying dues)
Option 2: -$20 (assuming same as Option 1)
Option 3: -$37 (same as option 2 but assuming I would have to pick up '21 dues)

Too harsh?


----------



## RhodyKP

linzjane88 said:


> My husbands theory is that the people that are out of work (lower wage retail, restaurant, etc) are not necessarily the ones that had loads of discretionary spending available to use on Disney trips before this happened and maybe there won't be as much impact. Who knows!


I am far from an economist (I'm a lawyer which means I pretend to know everything instead of actually knowing anything), but something happened over the weekend that made me a little nervous - my neighborhood Starbucks announced it would not be reopening after the quarantine. Other than meaning I have to go further out of my way for "meh" coffee I pay too much for, it made me wonder if there will indeed be long-term economic effects of Covid-19 even if things soon start opening up significantly. I don't know if it would have closed regardless, but it's certainly concerning.


----------



## jamier2

glamdring269 said:


> How do you typically weigh contracts based on available points? Assuming a contract on average is as follows then how do you weigh the subsequent scenarios?
> 
> $150 per point
> 19/20/21
> 100/100/100
> *Assume $150 per point is reasonably assumed to be the optimal buyer/seller agreement.
> 
> Option 1: 0/100/100
> Option 2: 0/0/100
> Option 3: 0/0/0
> 
> How much would you devalue from $150 per point in each of the different scenarios?
> 
> For me... directionally:
> Option 1: -$10 (assuming I could rent points that aren't there and buyer is paying dues)
> Option 2: -$20 (assuming same as Option 1)
> Option 3: -$37 (same as option 2 but assuming I would have to pick up '21 dues)
> 
> Too harsh?



On mine it's pretty simple. I take the total price (not counting closing and such, that's not too much and it's pretty standard anyway and it makes my spreadsheet much simpler) and divide by the points available over the span of years. I used 3 years for mine but you can do it however you like.

For this one it is 15,000 contract. Option A value is $75 per point, B is 150 per, C I can't divide by 0.

I also considered the price I would have to spend to rent the points to get rough idea if the price was worth it. In my searches they rarely dropped the point price anywhere near what I would have to spend to rent them from another member.

I'll admit my numbers are probably further off than yours - especially considering that there are 46 years left on the contracts I looked at. As the length increases the long term differences really become much less significant. I just used this as a quick and dirty way to compare contracts quickly.


----------



## Hopfather28

jamier2 said:


> We are pretty happy with it. The spread of prices - asking at least - was surprising to me.
> 
> I made a spreadsheet to compare contracts. I put in the price and points and then charted the next three years of points and used the total price divided by those years to get what I hope was a better idea of the true value. Some contracts priced higher actually ended up costing less per point - for the first three years at least - than some that were cheaper but stripped of points. It made more of a difference than I expected. For instance, the one we got, if you divide the total price of $20,400 by the 505 points we have in the first 3 years, it ends up being right at $40 per point. I saw one sell for $120 per point for 275 point contract that ended up costing $59 per point for the first 3 years.
> 
> Obviously if this is spread out over more years the difference would be much less, but it made me feel better about which one we picked.



Did they pay 2020 MF?


----------



## jamier2

Hopfather28 said:


> Did they pay 2020 MF?



No we are paying 2020 MF, but since we are using them I didn't mind. They came off the price by 10 per point and judging by them accepting in less than an hour I probably should have offered less. After the way the first two offers went on contracts, I can start to see how some people just decide to buy direct and be done almost instantly.


----------



## becauseimnew

linzjane88 said:


> We are fortunate to not have our jobs impacted at this time (although both mine and DH's employers are announcing cost cutting measures like hiring freezes, halting 401k match, and no annual bonuses). However, if we suddenly had two months with us being out of work that would change our discretionary spending drastically. We would be calling off vacations for the foreseeable future and considering selling things we don't need (DVC!). I don't know much about stocks and the economy but its hard for me to fathom how this wouldn't have a longer impact on DVC markets until people get caught back up.
> 
> My husbands theory is that the people that are out of work (lower wage retail, restaurant, etc) are not necessarily the ones that had loads of discretionary spending available to use on Disney trips before this happened and maybe there won't be as much impact. Who knows!


I think for right now you are correct, there lots of employers that are using the PP loans and once those run out is when we'll see a drastic change for those of us that haven't been affected. I'm not sure where you are but here medical facilities have cut back hours.


----------



## Hopfather28

glamdring269 said:


> How do you typically weigh contracts based on available points? Assuming a contract on average is as follows then how do you weigh the subsequent scenarios?
> 
> $150 per point
> 19/20/21
> 100/100/100
> *Assume $150 per point is reasonably assumed to be the optimal buyer/seller agreement.
> 
> Option 1: 0/100/100
> Option 2: 0/0/100
> Option 3: 0/0/0
> 
> How much would you devalue from $150 per point in each of the different scenarios?
> 
> For me... directionally:
> Option 1: -$10 (assuming I could rent points that aren't there and buyer is paying dues)
> Option 2: -$20 (assuming same as Option 1)
> Option 3: -$37 (same as option 2 but assuming I would have to pick up '21 dues)
> 
> Too harsh?


The way I valued my offer was to look at average sale price of similar contracts. Right now is not an "average" point in time so I did some discounting based on current trends. So for me I came out to $135pp. I figure rental of points gets 15 bucks so subtract MF of 7 and I said okay so let's discount it 8 for a stripped contract that I had no intention of using in 2020 anyhow. That got me to $127. I figured since that was actually my max I'd subtract the full 15 to get to 120pp and that is how I valued mine.


----------



## glamdring269

Hopfather28 said:


> The way I valued my offer was to look at average sale price of similar contracts. Right now is not an "average" point in time so I did some discounting based on current trends. So for me I came out to $135pp. I figure rental of points gets 15 bucks so subtract MF of 7 and I said okay so let's discount it 8 for a stripped contract that I had no intention of using in 2020 anyhow. That got me to $127. I figured since that was actually my max I'd subtract the full 15 to get to 120pp and that is how I valued mine.



This is similar to how I discounted but I assumed $17 for rental so directionally similar.


----------



## Lorana

I would also look at the ROFR thread for average prices.  Most brokers don't update their websites to show the _actual_ price the contract sold for.  For example, my first resale at BRV, the listed price was $102/point and I bought it for $93/point.  My most recent purchase for SSR was listed at $103/point and is still showing that, but I am actually buying it for $95/point.


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> Any significant movement on prices yet ?


Most of the drop was from late March and early April. There has been some additional reductions in a few resorts but most are steady as far a selling price, though asking as crept up a little on a few resorts mostly due to a few new contracts that are 20 too 30 % above the market but so has the difference between asking and selling, though the sample size is still relatively small


----------



## jccarney

RhodyKP said:


> I am far from an economist (I'm a lawyer which means I pretend to know everything instead of actually knowing anything), but something happened over the weekend that made me a little nervous - my neighborhood Starbucks announced it would not be reopening after the quarantine. Other than meaning I have to go further out of my way for "meh" coffee I pay too much for, it made me wonder if there will indeed be long-term economic effects of Covid-19 even if things soon start opening up significantly. I don't know if it would have closed regardless, but it's certainly concerning.


Antidotally, I’m a lawyer and loved your quote about lawyers and my local Starbucks closed too.  Took the sign down already.


----------



## glamdring269

jccarney said:


> Antidotally, I’m a lawyer and loved your quote about lawyers and my local Starbucks closed too.  Took the sign down already.



I can't tell if this means you're also an alchemist or if you got hit with the worst possible autocorrect in that first word.


----------



## Cyberc1978

So what is the expectations about price if we assume that all about Disney have reopened by 6/1.

Will the price go up again, will they remain where they are as disney dont have money to buy back or will they fall due to exactly that?

my thinking is that some resorts will see a decrease if Disney don’t buy anything back and sellers need the money.


----------



## bookwormde

5/11 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average


----------



## Brianstl

Cyberc1978 said:


> So what is the expectations about price if we assume that all about Disney have reopened by 6/1.
> 
> Will the price go up again, will they remain where they are as disney dont have money to buy back or will they fall due to exactly that?
> 
> my thinking is that some resorts will see a decrease if Disney don’t buy anything back and sellers need the money.


Prices will continue to go down.  The travel economy will be a bigger factor going forward on prices than the parks being shutdown.  That will dramatically impact demand for the product.


----------



## CarolMN

IMO, trying to predict (or time) the resale market is akin to predicting (or timing) the stock market.   You'll be right about half of the time no matter which side of the up or down bet you make.


----------



## DisMomKY

CarolMN said:


> IMO, trying to predict (or time) the resale market is akin to predicting (or timing) the stock market.   You'll be right about half of the time no matter which side of the up or down bet you make.


Agreed. We set a price we were comfortable spending and are happy with that. If prices go back up, great we got a great deal, if they drop further-well we got it at a price we are comfortable with and that’s okay too


----------



## heynowirv

bookwormde said:


> 5/11 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average


where? I'm not seeing that and I've been on the 3 major sites everyday, maybe my problem is an Aug UY and that's my focus?


----------



## heynowirv

Brianstl said:


> Prices will continue to go down.  The travel economy will be a bigger factor going forward on prices than the parks being shutdown.  That will dramatically impact demand for the product.


Agreed


----------



## glamdring269

Brianstl said:


> Prices will continue to go down.  The travel economy will be a bigger factor going forward on prices than the parks being shutdown.  That will dramatically impact demand for the product.



Yep. I think if we look at this in the microcosm of what is happening with DVC prices we are missing the macro problem of travel itself. The statements being made by the airlines regarding significant pilot layoffs are troubling.


----------



## DisMomKY

We backed out of our contract. It’s just too uncertain when we will be able to go in the future and that’s cash we can put back in savings. I’m super sad about it but it’s best for us


----------



## npatellye

DisMomKY said:


> We backed out of our contract. It’s just too uncertain when we will be able to go in the future and that’s cash we can put back in savings. I’m super sad about it but it’s best for us


I am sorry but I know exactly how you feel. I am sure that you will find that perfect contract again when you are ready!


----------



## miTnosnhoJ

AKNOTTS66 said:


> I don't think this is really correct. People losing their jobs and needing to sell their contracts will not change if the parks reopen or announce a reopening.  This does not bring their income back. I honestly think this is DVCRESALEMARKET's way of trying to spin the market and keep prices high.


I agree. "It is unrealistic to expect somebody to know a thing, when their whole livelihood depends on them not knowing it."


----------



## RhodyKP

DisMomKY said:


> We backed out of our contract. It’s just too uncertain when we will be able to go in the future and that’s cash we can put back in savings. I’m super sad about it but it’s best for us


I'm sure that was a tough decision but good for you for being cautious! You're already ahead of the game knowing about the resale market so when the time is right for you, you'll still get a great deal compared to direct pricing even if resale prices go back up.


----------



## DavidCa

DisMomKY said:


> We backed out of our contract. It’s just too uncertain when we will be able to go in the future and that’s cash we can put back in savings. I’m super sad about it but it’s best for us


I am sorry that you are having to back out! I saw your contract details in the ROFR thread. I am looking for a similar contract. Would you mind letting me know what broker site you found the contract on? Based on the agreed upon price, that seller seems to be more realistic than the prices i am seeing listed.


----------



## bookwormde

heynowirv said:


> where? I'm not seeing that and I've been on the 3 major sites everyday, maybe my problem is an Aug UY and that's my focus?


5 sites including the 2 largest, all UY


----------



## DisMomKY

DavidCa said:


> I am sorry that you are having to back out! I saw your contract details in the ROFR thread. I am looking for a similar contract. Would you mind letting me know what broker site you found the contract on? Based on the agreed upon price, that seller seems to be more realistic than the prices i am seeing listed.


Www.*************.com


----------



## heynowirv

bookwormde said:


> 5 sites including the 2 largest, all UY


Again, the ones I'm perusing I'm not seeing it If you'd like you can PM them to me


----------



## bookwormde

heynowirv said:


> Again, the ones I'm perusing I'm not seeing it If you'd like you can PM them to me


I think the issue is your UY for the past 4 days only 1 f the new contracts was AUG.


----------



## heynowirv

bookwormde said:


> I think the issue is your UY for the past 4 days only 1 f the new contracts was AUG.


That's what I've been sayin'


----------



## mcgils

Oh, I had my eye on that one. When you posted that you got a deal for $88, I went directly to that listing and intended to work on $88/pt. Now I know why it was no longer available.


----------



## mcgils

heynowirv said:


> Again, the ones I'm perusing I'm not seeing it If you'd like you can PM them to me



I think that it's the June contract for 200 points at $93. I was going to offer on it, but it went under agreement. It is no longer under agreement.


----------



## heynowirv

mcgils said:


> I think that it's the June contract for 200 points at $93. I was going to offer on it, but it went under agreement. It is no longer under agreement.


Wrong post mcgils.LOL


----------



## mcgils

heynowirv said:


> Wrong post mcgils.LOL



No, I was pointing out the contract that *DisMomKY *cancelled. That is what you were asking, isn't it?


----------



## RanDIZ

RhodyKP said:


> I am far from an economist (I'm a lawyer which means I pretend to know everything instead of actually knowing anything), but something happened over the weekend that made me a little nervous - my neighborhood Starbucks announced it would not be reopening after the quarantine. Other than meaning I have to go further out of my way for "meh" coffee I pay too much for, it made me wonder if there will indeed be long-term economic effects of Covid-19 even if things soon start opening up significantly. I don't know if it would have closed regardless, but it's certainly concerning.



You’re going to see more and more store closures to cut costs and bankruptcies for the less fortunate businesses. The unemployed will trickle back to work slowly as openings increase. Using Disney as an example, they’re starting at 30% capacity in Shanghai and gradually increasing. And even Chapek said he’d start below 30% at first. Whether or not they’ll be fully staffed is to be seen. But how can they be profitable at 30,40 or even 50% capacity? Local businesses doing be same will not be at full employment to handle limited customers. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.


----------



## MJ NH

glamdring269 said:


> Yep. I think if we look at this in the microcosm of what is happening with DVC prices we are missing the macro problem of travel itself. The statements being made by the airlines regarding significant pilot layoffs are troubling.


I think travel will be a huge factor. Will international travel be allowed into the states? That could cut foreign buyers down. Or does the reduction in international travel increase demand because Americans don’t want to leave the country?


----------



## CastAStone

RanDIZ said:


> You’re going to see more and more store closures to cut costs and bankruptcies for the less fortunate businesses. The unemployed will trickle back to work slowly as openings increase. Using Disney as an example, they’re starting at 30% capacity in Shanghai and gradually increasing. And even Chapek said he’d start below 30% at first. Whether or not they’ll be fully staffed is to be seen. But how can they be profitable at 30,40 or even 50% capacity? Local businesses doing be same will not be at full employment to handle limited customers. It’s gonna get worse before it gets better.


The parks operate in aggregate at 50% capacity on an average day.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> The parks operate in aggregate at 50% capacity on an average day.


I feel like I have a different perspective on "capacity," because if the recent crowds are only 50% capacity, someone has an unrealistic expectation of how many people you can crowd into a park.  ;-)


----------



## heynowirv

mcgils said:


> No, I was pointing out the contract that *DisMomKY *cancelled. That is what you were asking, isn't it?


Actually no,I was talking to bookwormde


----------



## CastAStone

Lorana said:


> I feel like I have a different perspective on "capacity," because if the recent crowds are only 50% capacity, someone has an unrealistic expectation of how many people you can crowd into a park.  ;-)


The parks this year were nuts before it closed but the 2018 average attendance for the entire year was almost exactly 50% capacity for the resort; higher that 50% at MK and AK, lower at Epcot and DHS. They've done such a good job of Spreading out crowds over the year with pricing that the parks essentially never have capacity closures that last more than a few hours anymore, and even those are basically just a prohibition on off site one day ticket entry. 

Believe it or not, it can be a LOT busier! That’s why capacity limits are more realistically going to start around 15-20%. And they’ve said they don’t expect to make money at first, just to lose less than they’re losing now.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> The parks this year were nuts before it closed but the 2018 average attendance for the entire year was almost exactly 50% capacity for the resort; higher that 50% at MK and AK, lower at Epcot and DHS. They've done such a good job of Spreading out crowds over the year with pricing that the parks essentially never have capacity closures that last more than a few hours anymore, and even those are basically just a prohibition on off site one day ticket entry.
> 
> Believe it or not, it can be a LOT busier! That’s why capacity limits are more realistically going to start around 15-20%. And they’ve said they don’t expect to make money at first, just to lose less than they’re losing now.


Oh, I know!  We've done Disney over New Years when parks get closed for capacity several years ago.  Hubbie claims that was a "one and done" because that press of bodies was more than he ever wants to deal with again, but I tell him that we have to do it once more once the kids are grown and we go ourselves.  though admittedly maybe a room at BLT and watch it from there to avoid the crowds...


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Lorana said:


> I feel like I have a different perspective on "capacity," because if the recent crowds are only 50% capacity, someone has an unrealistic expectation of how many people you can crowd into a park.  ;-)



And what I don't understand is when they speak of having reduced attractions.  The reduced capacity should be at full operations or they're just crowding everyone in to the fewer operating attractions which is not achieving what they need to do in spreading the attendance out within the park.    I haven't listened to any detailed info provided yet so maybe there's an explanation?


----------



## spunkylouamanda

bookwormde said:


> here is the longer term trend from this reseller
> View attachment 482441


I think that 2016 price point is likely the ROFR breaking point.


----------



## Brianstl

spunkylouamanda said:


> I think that 2016 price point is likely the ROFR breaking point.


We have already had the 2016 price average broke or matched at a few resorts that have cleared ROFR.


----------



## spunkylouamanda

Brianstl said:


> We have already had the 2016 price average broke or matched at a few resorts that have cleared ROFR.


Not averaging it though.


----------



## pirate33

spunkylouamanda said:


> I think that 2016 price point is likely the ROFR breaking point.



Why 2016?


----------



## bookwormde

5/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average


----------



## IndyToThere

bookwormde said:


> 5/12 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average


Along with the avg amount of newly posted contracts, are you able to post avg % drop (or rise) in Per Point costs? (not sure what the best comparison is... maybe a Month over Month change and/or Week over Week change). I see you have the per point cost in the opening post but was thinking it might be cool to see the pct drop on your updates that you post here with the number of contracts listed.


----------



## RoseGold

Still watching VGF, which was averaging 175 at the beginning of end of 2019.  2017 pricing was about 145.

Multiple listings are finally below 150, but that's still only a 14% drop and we aren't even to 2017 level yet.  I think my new target is something like 135-140, which I think is coming.


----------



## CastAStone

RoseGold said:


> Still watching VGF, which was averaging 175 at the beginning of end of 2019.  2017 pricing was about 145.
> 
> Multiple listings are finally below 150, but that's still only a 14% drop and we aren't even to 2017 level yet.  I think my new target is something like 135-140, which I think is coming.


There are still 51 for-sale (not pending) listings for VGF on DVC Resale Market that are over a month old, with half of those asking $175 or more. I wonder how long those owners patience holds out for.


----------



## heynowirv

CastAStone said:


> There are still 51 for-sale (not pending) listings for VGF on DVC Resale Market that are over a month old, with half of those asking $175 or more. I wonder how long those owners patience holds out for.


Until they get what they want
They are forced to sell for much less or
They decide to keep them for now


----------



## bookwormde

IndyToThere said:


> Along with the avg amount of newly posted contracts, are you able to post avg % drop (or rise) in Per Point costs? (not sure what the best comparison is... maybe a Month over Month change and/or Week over Week change). I see you have the per point cost in the opening post but was thinking it might be cool to see the pct drop on your updates that you post here with the number of contracts listed.


when I do the monthly report, it included previous months


----------



## pirate33

RoseGold said:


> Still watching VGF, which was averaging 175 at the beginning of end of 2019.  2017 pricing was about 145.
> 
> Multiple listings are finally below 150, but that's still only a 14% drop and we aren't even to 2017 level yet.  I think my new target is something like 135-140, which I think is coming.



Where are you seeing the ones <150 ppt?  The search engine that covers multiple brokers only shows one below that price point.


----------



## E2ME2

pirate33 said:


> Where are you seeing the ones <150 ppt?  The search engine that covers multiple brokers only shows one below that price point.


Which search engine are you using that covers multiple brokers?
Can you send me that link?
Thanks!


----------



## EM Lawrence

The only search engine I’ve found that claimed to pull up all of the listings only pulled from two brokers, and most of the listings had already sold. Maybe I’m missing the good one.


----------



## linzjane88

EM Lawrence said:


> The only search engine I’ve found that claimed to pull up all of the listings only pulled from two brokers, and most of the listings had already sold. Maybe I’m missing the good one.


 For a while there was a site that pulled tons of them and seemed easy to look at but it wasn't maintained and doesn't work anymore. I wish there was an easy way to look at all of them.  I also wish all sites had searchable columns for the past/current/next year points to sift out the loaded contracts...I like the search setup on  www.dvcsales.com  the best.

I am torn on the idea of stalking DVC resales to add on some decently priced points or finding a free Wyndham contract so we can alternate DVC with Bonnet Creek. It certainly would be the cheaper option.


----------



## Jhoyer5150

Wow we are really starting to see the prices fall each day now.  $120 for PVB, $89 for AKL (stripped, but still), $81.25 for SSR, $96 for BWV (large contract, but still), $125 for BLT, $145 for VGF, etc.  We either have some very desperate sellers or a very reduced number of buyers, or both.  The resale agents are holding the line publicly about pricing/activity, but dollars to donuts behind the scenes the good ones are telling their listings to engage with any bid that hits the door.  With ROFR consigned to the dustbin, there is no safety net now either...stuff is going to pass at wherever a buyer and seller meet.


----------



## Jaguar Skills

Jhoyer5150 said:


> Wow we are really starting to see the prices fall each day now.  $120 for PVB, $89 for AKL (stripped, but still), $81.25 for SSR, $96 for BWV (large contract, but still), $125 for BLT, $145 for VGF, etc.  We either have some very desperate sellers or a very reduced number of buyers, or both.  The resale agents are holding the line publicly about pricing/activity, but dollars to donuts behind the scenes the good ones are telling their listings to engage with any bid that hits the door.  With ROFR consigned to the dustbin, there is no safety net now either...stuff is going to pass at wherever a buyer and seller meet.



Where did you see the $81.25 for SSR?  The best counter offer we have had so far is $91!


----------



## bookwormde

5/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average


----------



## TinkB278

Jhoyer5150 said:


> Wow we are really starting to see the prices fall each day now.  $120 for PVB, $89 for AKL (stripped, but still), $81.25 for SSR, $96 for BWV (large contract, but still), $125 for BLT, $145 for VGF, etc.  We either have some very desperate sellers or a very reduced number of buyers, or both.  The resale agents are holding the line publicly about pricing/activity, but dollars to donuts behind the scenes the good ones are telling their listings to engage with any bid that hits the door.  With ROFR consigned to the dustbin, there is no safety net now either...stuff is going to pass at wherever a buyer and seller meet.


I’m also curious where you saw these prices. I haven’t seen anything this cheap anywhere


----------



## Hopfather28

TinkB278 said:


> I’m also curious where you saw these prices. I haven’t seen anything this cheap anywhere



Each of these except the $81.25 is posted over on the ROFR thread.


----------



## CastAStone

TinkB278 said:


> I’m also curious where you saw these prices. I haven’t seen anything this cheap anywhere


You generally won’t see listed prices this cheap or anything close. People are making very low offers and having them accepted.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

I just received an email for one of the resale websites requesting contracts; this is the second one they have sent out due to dwindling supply. 

*BUYER REQUESTS:*

Animal Kingdom 100 points or less
Animal Kingdom 150-200 points (April Use Year)
Bay Lake 50 points (October Use Year)
Beach Club 100 points
Boardwalk 100 points (April Use Year)
Boardwalk 75-160 points (February Use Year)
Boulder Ridge 200-300 points
Grand Californian (smaller points preferred)
Old Key West (Extended 2057)
Polynesian (all sizes and use years) -* In high demand! *
Small contracts under 50 points at any resort


----------



## sethschroeder

Slowly marching down interesting to see what happens when direct sales comes back online and if there is offers at all on CCV or RIV that possibly impact resale pricing. 

Big incentives could possibly spark maybe more listings to drop price or be posted as people want to buy the new resort?


----------



## TinkB278

sethschroeder said:


> Slowly marching down interesting to see what happens when direct sales comes back online and if there is offers at all on CCV or RIV that possibly impact resale pricing.
> 
> Big incentives could possibly spark maybe more listings to drop price or be posted as people want to buy the new resort?


I agree. I want to buy RIV so bad but can’t stand the thought of the resale restrictions. However, big enough incentives could push me to buy riv direct rather than a resale which is what I had been planning to buy. I wonder when DVC sales offices will reopen?


----------



## EM Lawrence

That broker email aligns with what I’ve been observing.  Small contracts seem to be moving fairly quickly.  Bigger contracts are lingering.


----------



## npatellye

sethschroeder said:


> Slowly marching down interesting to see what happens when direct sales comes back online and if there is offers at all on CCV or RIV that possibly impact resale pricing.
> 
> Big incentives could possibly spark maybe more listings to drop price or be posted as people want to buy the new resort?


I would love to add on more points at RIV if they would come out with incentives to make it comparable to what we paid for it per point in December.


----------



## dboules

I would LOVE to add on 100pts or less at BCV or VGF.  But I'm guessing I'm not alone by looking at that list....
Who knows if I will ever be able to add those one but it is a dream!  BTW, I own at Bonnet Creek too and would gladly give all those points up for a few Disney points!


----------



## ckb_nc

give this say 60 more days. Prices are going to continue to fall.


----------



## E2ME2

npatellye said:


> I would love to add on more points at RIV if they would come out with incentives to make it comparable to what we paid for it per point in December.


What deal did you get in December?
Were you able to stay there before COVID-19 ??


----------



## superden

I’m hoping to hit on a VGC contract if the price is right, but it seems like the price isn’t really budging much (or they are listing it quite high).


----------



## npatellye

E2ME2 said:


> What deal did you get in December?
> Were you able to stay there before COVID-19 ??


We bought with the pre-opening incentives so $188/point and then $3250 off for 200 points.

No, we didn’t get to stay there yet; we were supposed to be there right now


----------



## bookwormde

5/14 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average


----------



## heynowirv

Jhoyer5150 said:


> Wow we are really starting to see the prices fall each day now.  $120 for PVB, $89 for AKL (stripped, but still), $81.25 for SSR, $96 for BWV (large contract, but still), $125 for BLT, $145 for VGF, etc.  We either have some very desperate sellers or a very reduced number of buyers, or both.  The resale agents are holding the line publicly about pricing/activity, but dollars to donuts behind the scenes the good ones are telling their listings to engage with any bid that hits the door.  With ROFR consigned to the dustbin, there is no safety net now either...stuff is going to pass at wherever a buyer and seller meet.


Where are you seeing these prices?


----------



## Matty B13

ABE4DISNEY said:


> I just received an email for one of the resale websites requesting contracts; this is the second one they have sent out due to dwindling supply.
> 
> *BUYER REQUESTS:*
> 
> Polynesian (all sizes and use years) -* In high demand! *


Really??? Fidelity has a ton of Poly contracts for sale.


----------



## CastAStone

Matty B13 said:


> Really??? Fidelity has a ton of Poly contracts for sale.


DVC Resale Market has seen their inventory drop for Poly by about 75% since the beginning of April. Same with AKV - they've just been wiped out. The Timeshare Store has a ton of AKV and Fidelity like you said has a ton of Poly. Darned if I know.


----------



## mamaofsix

heynowirv said:


> Where are you seeing these prices?


These are the prices they were BOUGHT for, not LISTED for.  If you check out the ROFR thread, you'll see how many people are negotiating the list prices waaaaay down...


----------



## Jhoyer5150

You can list for whatever you'd like, but the price of any property is only the most someone is actually willing to pay for it.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

Jhoyer5150 said:


> You can list for whatever you'd like, but the price of any property is only the most someone is actually willing to pay for it.


Thats for sure. I see poly listings at $175 and $165 and you know they wont get close to that.


----------



## kucanhead

superden said:


> I’m hoping to hit on a VGC contract if the price is right, but it seems like the price isn’t really budging much (or they are listing it quite high).


A 200pt June UY popped up yesterday at $205/point. I offered $180/point, they countered at $201. I declined and not much later, they got their full asking price of $205/point. I don't think we're going to see a price drop if contracts don't even last a day. It probably doesn't help that there seems to be zero VGC contracts available at the moment.


----------



## Jhoyer5150

Grand Californian has been stubbornly high and there aren't many contracts to be had for that one.  I do believe it will fall over the next 6 months - especially if rumors are true that DLR won't even reopen until 2021 - but in that instance the demand for DVC exceeds supply, so I expect VGC to retain a premium price point.  Certainly a unique phenomenon that the other resorts do not share.  

In Orlando, Beach Club and Copper have held in the best to year to date but I remain very confident that all of them will decline near-intermediate term.


----------



## superden

kucanhead said:


> A 200pt June UY popped up yesterday at $205/point. I offered $180/point, they countered at $201. I declined and not much later, they got their full asking price of $205/point. I don't think we're going to see a price drop if contracts don't even last a day. It probably doesn't help that there seems to be zero VGC contracts available at the moment.



That is really good information. Thanks for sharing! I was listening to a podcast and one of the DVCRSM agents was sharing about sales. She mentioned a 50 point contract that was listed for $225 and sold for $250. Living on the West Coast and primarily visiting DLR, it makes the most sense.



Jhoyer5150 said:


> Grand Californian has been stubbornly high and there aren't many contracts to be had for that one.  I do believe it will fall over the next 6 months - especially if rumors are true that DLR won't even reopen until 2021 - but in that instance the demand for DVC exceeds supply, so I expect VGC to retain a premium price point.  Certainly a unique phenomenon that the other resorts do not share.
> 
> In Orlando, Beach Club and Copper have held in the best to year to date but I remain very confident that all of them will decline near-intermediate term.



Stubbornly high seems to be a good way of describing it. I looked through some of the ROFR prices from Jan-March 2020, and it seems like many passed around the $175-180 range. Right now so many are listed above $200. I am very curious to what happens to VGC if DL DVC Tower is built. It looks like they posted signs for demolition and it is underway. If they do start selling around 2023 as planned, even with a relatively robust economy (which is yet to be determined), I would guess the price would be still around maybe $205? Of course depending on MF and point charts, I think that could adversely affect VGC prices. If it doesn't, a pretty good fallback plan is to just buy the DL Towers.


----------



## CastAStone

superden said:


> I am very curious to what happens to VGC if DL DVC Tower is built. It looks like they posted signs for demolition and it is underway. If they do start selling around 2023 as planned, even with a relatively robust economy (which is yet to be determined), I would guess the price would be still around maybe $205? Of course depending on MF and point charts, I think that could adversely affect VGC prices. If it doesn't, a pretty good fallback plan is to just buy the DL Towers.


I have thought about this a lot, as in probably 3 or 4 years we think we'd want to buy DVC on the west coast.

I think that once DHV (?) makes it all the way to the resale market, it would have to adversely impact resale prices for VGC at least a little, as DHV will almost certainly sell at a lower new and resale price vs Grand Californian (as Grand Californian is their premier hotel). 

One consideration that will probably help keep VGC prices higher though is that any contract purchased resale will likely only be good at one or the other, even at 7 months. So to a west coast buyer, VGC will continue to live in it's own little bubble.


----------



## Lorana

npatellye said:


> We bought with the pre-opening incentives so $188/point and then $3250 off for 200 points.
> 
> No, we didn’t get to stay there yet; we were supposed to be there right now


So about $171.75/point.  Nice!


----------



## heynowirv

ChipNdale8887 said:


> Thats for sure. I see poly listings at $175 and $165 and you know they wont get close to that.


Last week I saw a poly aug uy (mine) 50 points with 20 banked they were asking 172 and it was So I'm just waiting it out.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

heynowirv said:


> Last week I saw a poly aug uy (mine) 50 points with 20 banked they were asking 172 and it was So I'm just waiting it out.


Small contracts are a different animal. But even those have been dropping also. If you can get it in the $145-$160 I'd consider it a win.


----------



## holyrita

CastAStone said:


> DVC Resale Market has seen their inventory drop for Poly by about 75% since the beginning of April. Same with AKV - they've just been wiped out. TSS has a ton of AKV and Fidelity like you said has a ton of Poly. Darned if I know.



As someone who is 3.5 weeks into a contract with Fidelity, they just updated the listing on their site from Available to Sale Pending. I would skeptical of their Available listings.


----------



## Vkothari916

Jhoyer5150 said:


> Grand Californian has been stubbornly high and there aren't many contracts to be had for that one.  I do believe it will fall over the next 6 months - especially if rumors are true that DLR won't even reopen until 2021 - but in that instance the demand for DVC exceeds supply, so I expect VGC to retain a premium price point.  Certainly a unique phenomenon that the other resorts do not share.
> 
> In Orlando, Beach Club and Copper have held in the best to year to date but I remain very confident that all of them will decline near-intermediate term.


I saw one VGC listed for $169 on the top seller resale site in April. Was gone the next day.


----------



## MICKIMINI

npatellye said:


> We bought with the pre-opening incentives so $188/point and then $3250 off for 200 points.
> 
> No, we didn’t get to stay there yet; we were supposed to be there right now


We were to arrive at the Poly tomorrow  -  I feel your pain!


----------



## MICKIMINI

holyrita said:


> As someone who is 3.5 weeks into a contract with Fidelity, they just updated the listing on their site from Available to Sale Pending. I would skeptical of their Available listings.


Not surprising as you have to "memorize" the listing page to see if it changes every day, if you are stalking a particular resort, otherwise you are wasting your time!


----------



## heynowirv

ChipNdale8887 said:


> Small contracts are a different animal. But even those have been dropping also. If you can get it in the $145-$160 I'd consider it a win.


yeah  I offered 140 thinking We'd settle somewhere around 150 ,found it hard to believe they got a full offer after being on market for 3 weeks ,right after  I made my bid,,, whatever


----------



## AKNOTTS66

heynowirv said:


> yeah  I offered 140 thinking We'd settle somewhere around 150 ,found it hard to believe they got a full offer after being on market for 3 weeks ,right after  I made my bid,,, whatever


Small contracts are less common so when buyers find them sometimes u just have to jump at it.


----------



## heynowirv

AKNOTTS66 said:


> Small contracts are less common so when buyers find them sometimes u just have to jump at it.


I know that, I also know I'm not paying 172 a point.


----------



## jotunheim

CastAStone said:


> I have thought about this a lot, as in probably 3 or 4 years we think we'd want to buy DVC on the west coast.
> 
> I think that once DHV (?) makes it all the way to the resale market, it would have to adversely impact resale prices for VGC at least a little, as DHV will almost certainly sell at a lower new and resale price vs Grand Californian (as Grand Californian is their premier hotel).
> 
> One consideration that will probably help keep VGC prices higher though is that any contract purchased resale will likely only be good at one or the other, even at 7 months. So to a west coast buyer, VGC will continue to live in it's own little bubble.



Good points.  I would agree that there might be a very small impact by the new villas opening at DL, but I think there are a couple of factors that would keep the pricing stable at minimum.

As far as I am aware, DVD has never dropped pricing on any direct points.  Through RORF, they tend to keep pricing at or around 2/3 of whatever they are charging at the time.  This dropped a bit below this threshold last fall and the buy backs started to increase, with resale pricing rebounding a month or two later.  As long as this continues to be the case, I don't see any reason for any drop in pricing over 5% or so, and may increase as direct pricing goes up.

The other huge plus is the direct access to DCA that will likely never be replicated at another DVC property.  This may or may not be important to some buyers, but it is _really_ nice to have your room so close to the park for breaks during the day.


----------



## gtfpjames

CastAStone said:


> DVC Resale Market has seen their inventory drop for Poly by about 75% since the beginning of April. Same with AKV - they've just been wiped out. TSS has a ton of AKV and Fidelity like you said has a ton of Poly. Darned if I know.


Looking for another AKV with August use year.  What is TSS? Thanks!


----------



## CastAStone

gtfpjames said:


> Looking for another AKV with August use year.  What is TSS? Thanks!


The Timeshare Store. I mistyped; should’ve been TTS. Also known as DVC store. Click the banner at the top of the page!


----------



## gtfpjames

CastAStone said:


> The Timeshare Store. I mistyped; should’ve been TTS. Also known as DVC store. Click the banner at the top of the page!


Thank you I appreciate it!!


----------



## pirate33

I stumbled across an interesting podcast with an interview with an agent from one of the larger brokers.  I was surprised by some of the comments. Key points from this person’s perspective:
—Their inventory overall decreased in April
—More buyers than sellers
—Not seeing distressed sellers
—Minor price drops overall except Poly and VGF
—VGC inventory is very small so no effect on prices

Meanwhile, a $149 pp larger VGF contract posted on this company’s website today (or yesterday, not sure).  Many contracts for that property remain listed at prices that are totally out of whack with the market.

I’m not sure if the link will post but I’ve put it below.  Worth listening to and interested in reactions of others here.

https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/


----------



## pirate33

Correction to my last post:
—the significant price drops were AKV and VGF (according to the speaker)
—some resorts went up slightly (BLT and BRV)


----------



## bookwormde

5/15 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average


----------



## superden

jotunheim said:


> The other huge plus is the direct access to DCA that will likely never be replicated at another DVC property.  This may or may not be important to some buyers, but it is _really_ nice to have your room so close to the park for breaks during the day.



100% agree with that direct access and I think that is a huge selling point. I think regardless, both DVCs will be in high demand and my guess is the price would probably more or less mirror each other when DLT sells out.


----------



## EM Lawrence

pirate33 said:


> I stumbled across an interesting podcast with an interview with an agent from one of the larger brokers.  I was surprised by some of the comments. Key points from this person’s perspective:
> —Their inventory overall decreased in April
> —More buyers than sellers
> —Not seeing distressed sellers
> —Minor price drops overall except Poly and VGF
> —VGC inventory is very small so no effect on prices
> 
> Meanwhile, a $149 pp larger VGF contract posted on this company’s website today (or yesterday, not sure).  Many contracts for that property remain listed at prices that are totally out of whack with the market.
> 
> I’m not sure if the link will post but I’ve put it below.  Worth listening to and interested in reactions of others here.
> 
> https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/


 I listened to this podcast last week. I thought it was a lot of spin to be honest, although this is a podcast that I enjoy typically.  They completely lost me when they suggested prices might go up in the near future. Just because that broker has low inventory does not mean inventory is low at other brokers. But I agree that sellers are not distressed right now, at least most of them don't seem to be. It's really too early in this economic crisis for that to be the case.


----------



## MICKIMINI

pirate33 said:


> I stumbled across an interesting podcast with an interview with an agent from one of the larger brokers.  I was surprised by some of the comments. Key points from this person’s perspective:
> —Their inventory overall decreased in April
> —More buyers than sellers
> —Not seeing distressed sellers
> —Minor price drops overall except Poly and VGF
> —VGC inventory is very small so no effect on prices
> 
> Meanwhile, a $149 pp larger VGF contract posted on this company’s website today (or yesterday, not sure).  Many contracts for that property remain listed at prices that are totally out of whack with the market.
> 
> I’m not sure if the link will post but I’ve put it below.  Worth listening to and interested in reactions of others here.
> 
> https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/


Thanks for posting the link.  I listed to the entire podcast.  Disclosure:  I have bought and sold multiple times.  I have used this brokerage and they were 100% professional.  I always held them in high regard.

Now, regarding the podcast - it sounded scripted to me first of all and about half way through turned into a lecture about what buyers should expect to offer.  5% off is what these broker's recommend.  Well, off _what?   _If a seasoned DVC buyer/seller (me - 25 years worth) determines the asking price is 20% too high I am being told NOT to make what I consider a reasonable offer?  Sounds like it.   Being told not to waste their time making an offer is not in the sellers best interest.  The seller is paying 8.5% for the brokers to relay offers, not determine final price.  Sorry, but the market determines price not the broker.  I can almost hear the snickering as I make my offer...!  So this is how these brokers really feel about buyers?  Wow.


----------



## Vkothari916

MICKIMINI said:


> Thanks for posting the link.  I listed to the entire podcast.  Disclosure:  I have bought and sold multiple times.  I have used this brokerage and they were 100% professional.  I always held them in high regard.
> 
> Now, regarding the podcast - it sounded scripted to me first of all and about half way through turned into a lecture about what buyers should expect to offer.  5% off is what these broker's recommend.  Well, off _what?   _If a seasoned DVC buyer/seller (me - 25 years worth) determines the asking price is 20% too high I am being told NOT to make what I consider a reasonable offer?  Sounds like it.   Being told not to waste their time making an offer is not in the sellers best interest.  The seller is paying 8.5% for the brokers to relay offers, not determine final price.  Sorry, but the market determines price not the broker.  I can almost hear the snickering as I make my offer...!  So this is how these brokers really feel about buyers?  Wow.


I have offered 13% less than asking and gotten accepted despite my broker saying offer was too low. they are legally requires to present your offer to seller. Offer whatever you think is a fair price.


----------



## pirate33

MICKIMINI said:


> Sorry, but the market determines price not the broker.



I agree overall with these sentiments, and you voiced some thoughts I couldn’t quite put my finger on.  It does seem candidly based on some of the comments in this podcast plus similar public comments by another brokerage that there is an effort by the brokers to boost or support prices artificially.

And I have also worked with this company in the past and was pleased with their service.  We had some kind of wrinkle in the contract I bought through them (points represented by the seller were a little off I think), and they worked through that issue in a way I thought was very fair and professional.


----------



## superden

EM Lawrence said:


> I listened to this podcast last week. I thought it was a lot of spin to be honest, although this is a podcast that I enjoy typically.  They completely lost me when they suggested prices might go up in the near future. Just because that broker has low inventory does not mean inventory is low at other brokers. But I agree that sellers are not distressed right now, at least most of them don't seem to be. It's really too early in this economic crisis for that to be the case.



I listen to this podcast as well. Generally I really appreciate the podcast and enjoy listening to the different stories and experiences that are shared. I can’t fault the host since his podcast is sponsored by the broker and I can’t fault the broker for trying to not devalue the product they are trying to sell.

With that being said, I definitely felt that this was not reflective of the current market uncertainty and this was a very bullish and optimistic viewpoint that would of course be to the benefit of the broker. The reality is that no one knows the future of the overall economy, and they sounded surprisingly certain in a very uncertain time. 

My second thought essentially was if the stock market presents a much larger discount than DVC, then I will be happy to invest in the market until it recovers and buy into DVC at that time later on.


----------



## Vkothari916

superden said:


> I listen to this podcast as well. Generally I really appreciate the podcast and enjoy listening to the different stories and experiences that are shared. I can’t fault the host since his podcast is sponsored by the broker and I can’t fault the broker for trying to not devalue the product they are trying to sell.
> 
> With that being said, I definitely felt that this was not reflective of the current market uncertainty and this was a very bullish and optimistic viewpoint that would of course be to the benefit of the broker. The reality is that no one knows the future of the overall economy, and they sounded surprisingly certain in a very uncertain time.
> 
> My second thought essentially was if the stock market presents a much larger discount than DVC, then I will be happy to invest in the market until it recovers and buy into DVC at that time later on.


Where are these podcasts? I would also like to listen.


----------



## macman123

Vkothari916 said:


> Where are these podcasts? I would also like to listen.



https://***********.com/090-april-2020-dvc-resale-market-update-and-analysis/


----------



## Brianstl

It was pretty well stripped, but 150 point CCV was just posted in the ROFR thread at $125 pp.


----------



## CastAStone

pirate33 said:


> Correction to my last post:
> —the significant price drops were AKV and VGF (according to the speaker)
> —some resorts went up slightly (BLT and BRV)


I mean I guess on a 1 month basis that’s true. Big picture according to their own data, VGF, Poly, BCV, and BWV have seen sustained declines over the last 4-8 months. The other resorts are mostly at or near 12 month lows but aren’t meaningfully lower than the next lowest month.

They’re right about one thing: the number of contracts on the market continues to fall. DVC Resale Market has less than 300 active listings, with more than half of them at just 3 resorts (SSR, BLT, VGF)


----------



## lovethesun12

I'm really surprised SSR didn't fall into the "large drop" category. 

It seems like a lot of the movement are smaller point contracts. Not sure if that's always the case.


----------



## BrianLo

The discussion really comes down to one thing. Either you believe there will be a protracted recession or you do not.

Brokers that argue prices will rise despite a protracted recession are out to lunch - or protecting their bottom line.

There is definitely a lot more demand now than we anticipated.  I think that in some ways is artificial (between direct closures and a backlog of a lot of intent to buy). Buyers who were already floating around are finally seeing the first downward deflection in over a decade and are eagerly jumping at the chance. Eventually one imagines everyone here who has been sitting and waiting will have bought in and the onward price drop march will continue.


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30 and 5/15 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for many resorts is getting small so variability increases, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20% above the average are sometimes impacting the averages



Reduced

……………3/31      4/15       4/30       5/15        



AKV       110         109         109         104     

AUL        97           93           92           96        

BLT         144         146         146         145     

BCV        138         137         140         142    

BWV      118         118         116         114      

BRV        100         ND          94           94        

CCV        148         150         150         148   

VGF       168         168         168         168 

HH          74           74           74           74  

OKW      95           94           93           93  

POLY      143         144         144         144      

SS           102         98           101         101    

VB          62           62           63           63


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30 and 5/15 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price is large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the actual sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31      4/15       4/30       5/15                           



AKV       109         108         109         109       

AUL        96           97           97           96          

BLT         137         141         144         143        

BCV        140         138         140         140        

BWV      118         121         121         120       

BRV        98           98           97           97         

CCV        147         147         150         151      

VGF       164         163         161         163        

HH          75           76           75           78        

OKW      93           93           93           92       

POLY      146         146         146         146       

SS           101         101         102         102      

VB          71           67           67           67


----------



## bookwormde

5/16 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20% of average


----------



## superden

Vkothari916 said:


> Where are these podcasts? I would also like to listen.



You can also find the podcast on Apple podcast under “My DVC Points Podcast.” I’m not gonna lie, that podcast became the catalyst to our family becoming DVC members. I probably only had five minutes considering whether or not to become one (I’m on the phone with an agent asking if I wanted a subsidized small point Aulani contract below market price and there were a list of buyers ready to buy). Well... we just closed on our first contract last month.


----------



## laserpastry

CastAStone said:


> DVC Resale Market has seen their inventory drop for Poly by about 75% since the beginning of April. Same with AKV - they've just been wiped out. TSS has a ton of AKV and Fidelity like you said has a ton of Poly. Darned if I know.



Please forgive my ignorance, but what is TSS?

Update: Nevermind.  Read the response from yesterday. Thanks!


----------



## Vkothari916

Apologies if this has already been covered but does anybody have data on how much prices dropped for the resorts during the previous recession (2009-2011 period)?


----------



## bookwormde

5/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30% of average

Best estimate is that the week of 5/11 to 5/17 was about 110% of average


----------



## E2ME2

laserpastry said:


> Please forgive my ignorance, but what is TSS?
> 
> Update: Nevermind.  Read the response from yesterday. Thanks!


TSS = TimeShare Store


----------



## zavandor

lovethesun12 said:


> I'm really surprised SSR didn't fall into the "large drop" category.



I can see two reasons: 
1) the nre refurbishment is very good, it went to be the one ith one of the worst decor to one of the best. This may increase a little bit the demand
2) when money are thighter, people may look more to the best bargain, and SSR still is


----------



## lovethesun12

zavandor said:


> I can see two reasons:
> 1) the nre refurbishment is very good, it went to be the one ith one of the worst decor to one of the best. This may increase a little bit the demand
> 2) when money are thighter, people may look more to the best bargain, and SSR still is


Yes I would agree with that for sure! I didn't mean because of the resort though, I meant because it seemed like people were getting lower prices there than usual and it *seemed* like the prices online were falling. But clearly I was wrong with those thoughts and didn't do the math on them =)


----------



## Lorana

bookwormde said:


> Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30 and 5/15 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers
> 
> Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price is large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the actual sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels
> 
> Pending
> 
> ……3/31      4/15       4/30       5/15
> 
> 
> 
> AKV       109         108         109         109
> 
> AUL        96           97           97           96
> 
> BLT         137         141         144         143
> 
> BCV        140         138         140         140
> 
> BWV      118         121         121         120
> 
> BRV        98           98           97           97
> 
> CCV        147         147         150         151
> 
> VGF       164         163         161         163
> 
> HH          75           76           75           78
> 
> OKW      93           93           93           92
> 
> POLY      146         146         146         146
> 
> SS           101         101         102         102
> 
> VB          71           67           67           67


Do we actually know if these averages account for the actual SELLING price, not the LISTED price?  I don't ever seem to see Brokers adjusting their website for the listed price.  Most of my resale contracts were bought for less than listed price, and when the listings went into "pending sale" the price listed never reflected the price I was actually paying/what the offer was accepted at.


----------



## Lorana

lovethesun12 said:


> Yes I would agree with that for sure! I didn't mean because of the resort though, I meant because it seemed like people were getting lower prices there than usual and it *seemed* like the prices online were falling. But clearly I was wrong with those thoughts and didn't do the math on them =)


If you look at the data in our ROFR thread, prices are dropping.  Maybe we're a unique microcosm, but given that resellers never update their listings to reflect the actual selling price of contracts, I'm not sure if the data points are reflecting LISTING prices or SELLING prices, which are two different things.  It's certainly not in a broker's best interest to show dropping prices, and definitely in their best interest to keep prices as high as possible.


----------



## CastAStone

Lorana said:


> If you look at the data in our ROFR thread, prices are dropping.  Maybe we're a unique microcosm, but given that resellers never update their listings to reflect the actual selling price of contracts, I'm not sure if the data points are reflecting LISTING prices or SELLING prices, which are two different things.  It's certainly not in a broker's best interest to show dropping prices, and definitely in their best interest to keep prices as high as possible.


Pretty much anything you see in this thread that isn't coming from the ROFR thread is listed prices, because as has been established up thread, that's the only data available. The only exception is DVCResaleMarket's monthly publication of average selling prices, which you can find in their blog.


----------



## lovethesun12

Lorana said:


> If you look at the data in our ROFR thread, prices are dropping.  Maybe we're a unique microcosm, but given that resellers never update their listings to reflect the actual selling price of contracts, I'm not sure if the data points are reflecting LISTING prices or SELLING prices, which are two different things.  It's certainly not in a broker's best interest to show dropping prices, and definitely in their best interest to keep prices as high as possible.


Very true.


----------



## MamaBear12

Think I’ll score a 160-ish point AKV contract for $85/point in the next few months? I’m seeing some on the ROFR thread passed recently for $95.


----------



## MICKIMINI

MamaBear12 said:


> Think I’ll score a 160-ish point AKV contract for $85/point in the next few months? I’m seeing some on the ROFR thread passed recently for $95.


Not if I get it first LOL!  There's hardly an AKV out there - what's up with that?


----------



## MamaBear12

MICKIMINI said:


> Not if I get it first LOL!  There's hardly an AKV out there - what's up with that?


It’s definitely strange there aren’t more contracts out there. I’m hoping that changes in June or July!


----------



## deedubb

Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before.  It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86.  I wonder if those would pass ROFR.


----------



## Philsfan77

deedubb said:


> Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before.  It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86.  I wonder if those would pass ROFR.



maybe they were really BRV?


----------



## deedubb

Philsfan77 said:


> maybe they were really BRV?


It clearly stated "Disney's Boardwalk Villas" for both.  Must be some pretty distressed sellers to let it go at that price.


----------



## CastAStone

deedubb said:


> Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before.  It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86.  I wonder if those would pass ROFR.


Will the filter let you post a link?


----------



## MICKIMINI

deedubb said:


> Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before.  It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86.  I wonder if those would pass ROFR.


Those are the prices we've all been waiting for...you should definitely check up on the listing agent if you haven't heard of them before!  Oh, as far as we know, there is NO ROFR right now


----------



## E2ME2

deedubb said:


> It clearly stated "Disney's Boardwalk Villas" for both.  Must be some pretty distressed sellers to let it go at that price.


Please tell me where you found BWV at $80 --
That's my dream price to add-on there!


----------



## lovethesun12

deedubb said:


> Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before.  It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86.  I wonder if those would pass ROFR.


We need to find these people ASAP and make them post on the ROFR thread


----------



## RoseGold

E2ME2 said:


> Which search engine are you using that covers multiple brokers?
> Can you send me that link?
> Thanks!



I was just watching Fidelity and the one that shall not be named.  They had several VGF listings drop below 150, now all showing sold.  Tons of VGF listed on that one place.

I don't care about use year and want a big contract, so my goal is value.


----------



## deedubb

CastAStone said:


> Will the filter let you post a link?



Let's see...
https://www.buyatimeshare.com/resorts/Disneys-Boardwalk-Villas/For-Sale
Well, I guess it will!  It's the last 2.  
1) 250 points for $21.6K
2) 150 points for $12K


----------



## RoseGold

The one lonely VGF listing on that site is $114/point.  That's insanely below ROFR.


----------



## RhodyKP

Their website says closing costs are usually between $300 and $500, and they recommend First American and Chicago Title. I wonder if there are crazy high fees hidden somewhere?


----------



## MamaBear12

deedubb said:


> Let's see...
> https://www.buyatimeshare.com/resorts/Disneys-Boardwalk-Villas/For-Sale
> Well, I guess it will!  It's the last 2.
> 1) 250 points for $21.6K
> 2) 150 points for $12K


They show an AKV sold for $78/point! They ones they have available have ridiculously high asking prices though...like $16,000 for a 110pt AKV contract. Ummmm...nope!


----------



## becauseimnew

RoseGold said:


> The one lonely VGF listing on that site is $114/point.  That's insanely below ROFR.


There is also a 50pt Aulani contract listed for $9K, LOL.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

RhodyKP said:


> Their website says closing costs are usually between $300 and $500, and they recommend First American and Chicago Title. I wonder if there are crazy high fees hidden somewhere?


their website seems kind of haphazard


----------



## MICKIMINI

RoseGold said:


> I was just watching Fidelity and the one that shall not be named.  They had several VGF listings drop below 150, now all showing sold.  Tons of VGF listed on that one place.
> 
> I don't care about use year and want a big contract, so my goal is value.


I think I've mentioned this before...my suspicion is that there are super DVC owners out there who are dumping loads of contracts all at the same time.  Notice how most of the contracts are surgically stripped?  It's nearly impossible to get down to 0 and then the following year a full allotment.  In some cases there is contract after contract after contract, different UY but same MO - just weird!

Another thought is that if you can get Poly at $120ish are any 2042 resorts worth $120ish?   There is a BRV contract out there for around $100 PP which seems crazy when I can get Poly for $20 or so more.  Okay, so that is my brain dump for tonight...I already locked my DH in the garage accidentally (I let him back in) so I need to go to my corner...


----------



## CastAStone

RoseGold said:


> The one lonely VGF listing on that site is $114/point.  That's insanely below ROFR.


BRV and OKW for $83. If I had the cash I'd buy right now.

On the flip side their AKV prices are outrageous. $145?


----------



## ChipNdale8887

MICKIMINI said:


> I think I've mentioned this before...my suspicion is that there are super DVC owners out there who are dumping loads of contracts all at the same time.  Notice how most of the contracts are surgically stripped?  It's nearly impossible to get down to 0 and then the following year a full allotment.  In some cases there is contract after contract after contract, different UY but same MO - just weird!
> 
> Another thought is that if you can get Poly at $120ish are any 2042 resorts worth $120ish?   There is a BRV contract out there for around $100 PP which seems crazy when I can get Poly for $20 or so more.  Okay, so that is my brain dump for tonight...I already locked my DH in the garage accidentally (I let him back in) so I need to go to my corner...


I wouldn't say its exactly easy to get poly at $120ish. Especially with your use year you want.


----------



## CastAStone

ChipNdale8887 said:


> their website seems kind of haphazard


https://www.bbb.org/us/fl/tampa/pro...ental-marketing/buyatimesharecom-0653-6160390


----------



## MICKIMINI

MamaBear12 said:


> They show an AKV sold for $78/point! They ones they have available have ridiculously high asking prices though...like $16,000 for a 110pt AKV contract. Ummmm...nope!


Is this the company that OP had an issue with the seller hiding the fact that they had a covid19 cancellation and then secretly booked a new reservation?  The poster had to fight and go up to the VP of the company to finally get out of the contract?  Yikes, nothing is worth that mess!


----------



## MICKIMINI

ChipNdale8887 said:


> I wouldn't say its exactly easy to get poly at $120ish. Especially with your use year you want.


Surprisingly, a broker I've worked with before that I spoke to last week (I put in an offer but it had just sold) has a couple in the $130's that he thought I might be able to get in the $120's- in my UY.  I haven't been looking at Poly, but just thinkin...


----------



## MamaBear12

MICKIMINI said:


> Is this the company that OP had an issue with the seller hiding the fact that they had a covid19 cancellation and then secretly booked a new reservation?  The poster had to fight and go up to the VP of the company to finally get out of the contract?  Yikes, nothing is worth that mess!


No idea. I just clicked on the link provided by deedubb and perused a few of the listings, but I don’t know any background  about the company.


----------



## MamaBear12

ChipNdale8887 said:


> their website seems kind of haphazard


Yeah. No use years listed that I can find either.


----------



## mcgils

CastAStone said:


> BRV and OKW for $83. If I had the cash I'd buy right now.
> 
> On the flip side their AKV prices are outrageous. $145?


Not to mention the Saratoga contract at $227.27/point.


----------



## CastAStone

mcgils said:


> Not to mention the Saratoga contract at $227.27/point.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

mcgils said:


> Not to mention the Saratoga contract at $227.27/point.



Yeah, that's ridiculous, but they also have a SSR 200 point contract for $15,495 or  $77 a point-no use year mentioned that I see.

Will someone buy that and report back so we will know if this website is legit?? 

Edited to add--Ugh, just checked out their BBB report--doesn't sound legit at all.


----------



## MICKIMINI

MamaBear12 said:


> No idea. I just clicked on the link provided by deedubb and perused a few of the listings, but I don’t know any background  about the company.


I clicked on it and started looking when "Emma" popped up and wanted to chat...bye bye.  BBB reviews speak for themselves - thanks for posting CASTaSTONE.  It's that patience skill we just haven't perfected yet folks!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

MICKIMINI said:


> I think I've mentioned this before...my suspicion is that there are super DVC owners out there who are dumping loads of contracts all at the same time.  Notice how most of the contracts are surgically stripped?  It's nearly impossible to get down to 0 and then the following year a full allotment.  In some cases there is contract after contract after contract, different UY but same MO - just weird!



I agree with you.   You did mention this earlier, and I think that explains prices not decreasing much and offers being declined/even countered higher sometimes.   The last few weeks have cleared out many of the regular individual sellers, and it is a super DVC/ brokers' world now.


----------



## Brianstl

RoseGold said:


> The one lonely VGF listing on that site is $114/point.  That's insanely below ROFR.


There is no ROFR right now.


----------



## Heather07438

ABE4DISNEY said:


> Yeah, that's ridiculous, but they also have a SSR 200 point contract for $15,495 or  $77 a point-no use year mentioned that I see.
> 
> Will someone buy that and report back so we will know if this website is legit??
> 
> Edited to add--Ugh, just checked out their BBB report--doesn't sound legit at all.



And the BWV 150 points for $12k ($80pp) is listed as: Floating, Annual and...?  Unit 31A

Is that the maintenance closet?


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> https://www.bbb.org/us/fl/tampa/pro...ental-marketing/buyatimesharecom-0653-6160390


It seems the complaints are from people who paid them to try to sell their timeshare.  I didn't notice any complaints from people who bought a timeshare from them.  It would appear that they are selling contracts from owners that don't realize what the actual market is for DVC and that you don't have to pay someone to market your contract.


----------



## Brianstl

Heather07438 said:


> And the BWV 150 points for $12k ($80pp) is listed as: Floating, Annual and...? * Unit 31A*
> 
> Is that the maintenance closet?


Isn't that how they are listed on the deed?


----------



## rachaelg

This is the site that I was curious about a couple of weeks ago. I inquired further and found out that "You also would have the option to work with the owners directly on the sale or use the brokerage here to facilitate, prepare paperwork, verify info and coordinate with the closing company, seller and resort. To use the brokerage would entail an additional $750 charge to the total purchase amount." It just seemed a little iffy for me and my first resale purchase, plus in my heart I never felt truly excited about Saratoga, which was the contract I was looking at through them. I ended up going through the sponsors of the Dis boards and getting what I actually wanted deep down: BLT.


----------



## bookwormde

5/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 90% of average


----------



## RoseGold

MICKIMINI said:


> I think I've mentioned this before...my suspicion is that there are super DVC owners out there who are dumping loads of contracts all at the same time.  Notice how most of the contracts are surgically stripped?  It's nearly impossible to get down to 0 and then the following year a full allotment.



It's really easy to strip a contract, you buy one time use points.  It's even easier if you have multiple contracts.  That was standard long before Corona, both of my resales were like that.


----------



## Punkrockbebop

MICKIMINI said:


> I think I've mentioned this before...my suspicion is that there are super DVC owners out there who are dumping loads of contracts all at the same time.  Notice how most of the contracts are surgically stripped?  It's nearly impossible to get down to 0 and then the following year a full allotment.  In some cases there is contract after contract after contract, different UY but same MO - just weird!




Can you explain to me what is the advantage to these sellers to strip contracts?  I’m just trying to understand.


----------



## Toonses

MICKIMINI said:


> Is this the company that OP had an issue with the seller hiding the fact that they had a covid19 cancellation and then secretly booked a new reservation?  The poster had to fight and go up to the VP of the company to finally get out of the contract?  Yikes, nothing is worth that mess!



I was thinking the same thing, and I believe it’s this outfit as well. To be fair - I haven’t gone to track down that thread and verify.


----------



## deedubb

Punkrockbebop said:


> Can you explain to me what is the advantage to these sellers to strip contracts?  I’m just trying to understand.



A stripped contract just means that they have used the points, either for a vacation for themselves, or rented them out to make some cash.  However, stripped contracts usually sell for less than loaded contracts, so in the end, it's all a wash.


----------



## Punkrockbebop

deedubb said:


> A stripped contract just means that they have used the points, either for a vacation for themselves, or rented them out to make some cash.  However, stripped contracts usually sell for less than loaded contracts, so in the end, it's all a wash.





I know what a stripped contract is, I just thought that poster may have inferred that there is some advantage for the seller to have stripped the contract.


----------



## CastAStone

Punkrockbebop said:


> I know what a stripped contract is, I just thought that poster may have inferred that there is some advantage for the seller to have stripped the contract.


I think you can generally rent out the points for more than what you lose on the premium people pay for contracts with points, particularly if you rent out next years points and then make the purchaser pay the MFs on them, which seems to be mostly how it's done.


----------



## Lorana

Punkrockbebop said:


> I know what a stripped contract is, I just thought that poster may have inferred that there is some advantage for the seller to have stripped the contract.


My thought was that the seller could have rented all the points out for money, or sold then for transfer.  In this case, they would have made money on the points themselves, and then again on selling the stripped contract.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Punkrockbebop said:


> I know what a stripped contract is, I just thought that poster may have inferred that there is some advantage for the seller to have stripped the contract.


Okay, this is just a theory, but I've been buying/selling DVC for 25 years...I believe there are sellers out there who own multiple contracts (I mean LOTS of contracts) who have been stripping them.  They are renting and/or transferring points for profit which is fine.  I've purchased loaded contracts to rent and use and then flip, but this is an entirely different category of owner since the covid19 thing ramped up.  

In theory, a stripped contract should be worth IMO about $5-6 less PP.  For example, you can rent a point for $15 and after paying MF's net about $7 before paying income taxes.  Current list prices don't seem to be random within a range of prices and almost all the contracts seem to be completely stripped - evenly down to zero.  I don't see this as normal seller listings.

When buying a contract - say a 100 point contract at $100 PP with two years past, current and next year's points to me anyway, is worth so much more.  I will rent 200 points at $15 and make 3K to offset purchase price - or $30 less net per point.  I negotiate so I don't pay MF's on those two years.  A stripped contract has no value to me.  Long winded, but let me know if I totally missed the point!


----------



## RoseGold

You can't close while a trip is pending, including renting out points.  So stripping is smart when you plan to sell.

Stripped contracts looking pretty good right now...  Not like I'm trying to fight the point overload the next year anyway.


----------



## Punkrockbebop

Good input, thank you all.  I would also think a stripped contract is pretty attractive right now, given the circumstances.


----------



## njcoach24

I just posted this in the ROFR thread. As a first time buyer (I just made a deal) I've become really interested in the price trends that the ROFR threads have been providing...this only took me an hour and these are my favorite two properties. One outlier is that there seems to be one person making a lot of deals on multiple resorts every quarter and getting the best prices so they must be hooked up with a broker or is a broker. Also, deals before closures look similar to deals today with some unicorns. And I think inventory is really low right now, it looks like people went buck wild in the first quarter buying things up so I think prices will stabilize and go back up.

Good Deals at ALK seem to be from $100-$105 per point. If you get in under $100 its a steal. PVB $130-135 seems to be a good deal and in the $120's is a steal. But most of those steal price per points are $20,000+ on the total contract cost.

Month & Year in 1st two columns are when the deal closed.

Here is ALK sorted by price per point from Oct 2019 through today.

MonthYearPrice Per PointNumber of PointsTotal Cost2018201920202021Passed ROFRDec2019$94.00250$26,297.000250250YesDec2019$94.00200$21,038.000178200NoApril2020$95.00160$17,138.00160160160YesMay2020$95.00100$10,922.000100100YesMay2020$95.00320$31,913.000216123YesJan2020$97.00485$48,020.000485485YesDec2019$98.00250$27,700.0002250NoApril2020$99.00270$28,135.0017020170YesDec2019$99.00200$21,810.00180400NoApril2020$100.00180$18,932.000145180YesMay2020$100.00300$30,806.00050300YesMar2020$100.00160$17,950.0059160160YesJan2020$100.00160$16,575.0000160NoNov2019$100.00160$16,700.000160160YesJan2020$101.00220$24,537.000220220YesNov2019$101.00240$27,429.0000240NoMar2020$102.00160$18,189.0051160160YesFeb2020$102.00165$16,830.000048NoMar2020$102.00220$23,756.00220220220NoOct2019$102.00315$33,100.000233315YesNov2019$102.00250$28,200.0000250YesFeb2020$103.00500$52,750.000500500YesFeb2020$103.00100$11,400.000100100YesMar2020$103.00180$19,620.000196180YesMar2020$103.00160$17,025.0000160YesOct2019$103.00220$22,660.0000220YesJan2020$104.00120$13,958.000120120YesJan2020$104.00150$17,390.00150150150YesDec2019$104.25200$23,034.000120200YesApril2020$105.00160$18,612.000320160YesMay2020$105.00150$17,450.002238150YesFeb2020$105.00150$17,455.00246150150YesFeb2020$105.00100$11,762.000100100YesFeb2020$105.00220$24,982.0060440220YesMar2020$105.00230$24,988.00230230230YesMar2020$105.00200$23,324.0072200200YesFeb2020$105.00300$32,500.00426270300NoOct2019$105.00250$26,950.0000250YesNov2019$105.00100$11,150.000108100YesJan2020$106.00160$18,800.00220160160YesMar2020$106.00160$17,602.0000160YesFeb2020$107.00160$17,762.0000160YesJan2020$108.00160$19,077.00160160160YesFeb2020$108.00160$19,160.00160160160YesFeb2020$108.00160$19,149.00144160160YesFeb2020$108.00160$19,149.00144160160YesFeb2020$108.00180$21,499.000298180YesMar2020$108.0050$6,118.0005050YesMar2020$108.00120$14,320.000217120YesOct2019$108.00200$23,796.000191200YesOct2019$108.00120$13,465.0000120YesDec2019$108.00225$27,400.000149225YesJan2020$109.00220$23,980.000220220YesJan2020$109.00100$11,395.0000100YesJan2020$110.00200$22,000.000400200YesJan2020$110.00200$24,574.000398200YesFeb2020$110.00200$22,000.000400200YesFeb2020$110.00100$11,557.0054100100YesMar2020$110.00170$19,353.0060170YesMar2020$110.00160$19,413.003320160YesMar2020$110.00160$19,382.00160320160YesJan2020$112.00245$30,615.00245245245YesFeb2020$112.00250$30,437.000216250YesDec2019$112.00120$14,924.0000120YesDec2019$112.00160$19,812.00095160YesJan2020$115.00100$12,666.0070100100YesNov2019$119.00100$12,395.00058200YesJan2020$120.00120$15,948.00120120120YesMar2020$120.0080$10,753.0008080YesOct2019$120.00160$19,885.000300160YesFeb2020$121.00220$27,310.00440220220YesNov2019$122.00125$15,785.000250125YesJan2020$135.0050$7,648.00505050Yes

Here is PVB sorted by price per point from Oct 2019 through today.

MonthYearPrice Per PointNumber of PointsTotal Cost2018201920202021Passed ROFRMay2020$120.00220$27,280.00013220YesFeb2020$120.00450$55,200.0008450YesApril2020$123.00100$12,800.0000100YesApril2020$125.00200$26,358.000201200YesOct2019$125.00225$28,125.000336225YesMay2020$130.00100$14,279.000122100YesNov2019$130.00206$27,465.005834174YesNov2019$130.00100$13,540.000100100YesNov2019$130.00200$26,720.000026YesMar2020$131.00125$17,224.000125125YesJan2020$132.00150$20,819.00150150150YesOct2019$132.00150$20,574.0000284YesJan2020$133.00175$24,257.0012451175YesJan2020$133.00160$23,058.00185160160YesMay2020$135.00100$14,711.000100100YesFeb2020$135.00110$15,385.0000110YesFeb2020$135.00110$15,385.0000110YesMar2020$135.00125$18,088.00097125YesDec2019$135.00200$27,735.000200200YesNov2019$136.00160$23,450.001060320YesJan2020$137.00200$28,760.0019204200YesJan2020$137.00100$14,225.0060100YesMar2020$138.00110$16,472.000110110YesMar2020$138.00175$26,042.0016165175YesOct2019$138.0075$10,997.00007YesMar2020$139.00220$32,912.000440220YesNov2019$139.00150$20,850.0009429YesFeb2020$140.00150$22,634.00143150150YesMar2020$140.00175$26,364.001175175YesFeb2020$141.00220$32,985.00229220220YesOct2019$142.00175$26,500.000300175YesApril2020$143.00200$30,848.000400200YesMar2020$143.00150$22,245.0015056150YesMar2020$143.00200$28,600.00200200200YesMar2020$143.00275$40,410.00484275275YesJan2020$145.00175$27,239.00222107175YesFeb2020$145.0050$8,220.0007650YesMar2020$145.0050$8,164.0005850YesOct2019$145.00200$29,350.000400200YesOct2019$146.00200$30,664.0000220YesMar2020$147.00200$32,115.00200200200YesMar2020$147.0075$11,865.0007575YesFeb2020$149.00125$18,625.000250125YesMar2020$149.00100$16,209.000121100YesJan2020$150.00200$32,109.00400200200YesDec2019$150.0080$12,480.00001YesDec2019$150.00120$19,379.0000120YesDec2019$155.0025$4,460.000025YesApril2020$165.0030$5,375.000030Yes


----------



## Punkrockbebop

Njcoach, is the month on those the useyear month, or the month these contracts closed?


----------



## njcoach24

Punkrockbebop said:


> Njcoach, is the month on those the useyear month, or the month these contracts closed?



the month the deal closed, I noted it above also. Good catch.


----------



## RoseGold

njcoach24 said:


> And I think inventory is really low right now, it looks like people went buck wild in the first quarter buying things up so I think prices will stabilize and go back up.



Direct sales is closed right now.  The broker they traditionally send people to is Fidelity.  I would expect to see a ton of Fidelity listings when direct sales opens again.


----------



## MICKIMINI

njcoach24 said:


> And I think inventory is really low right now, it looks like people went buck wild in the first quarter buying things up so I think prices will stabilize and go back up.


Thanks for putting that together!  Those are two great resorts.  Congrats on your first DVC!

I totally agree that there are one or more people (brokers?) out there with deep pockets buying and they are also out there selling those stripped contracts.  It is pretty obvious that they are skewing the availability and prices.

The good thing is they can't buy everything.  I have to disagree though that "prices will stabilize and go back up".  DVC resale prices go up and down slowly rather than spike up and down as you can see from your charts  We are in a historic downturn right now and with the exception of small contracts, prices should continue to slide.  Eventually the small contracts will get more competitive and numerous.  From experience, I suspect the slide will continue into next year and stabilize at some point.  Many people will try to hold on to those small contracts in hopes this covid19 thing doesn't last forever, but will sell if it is a choice between their car to get to work or a few nights a year at DVC.  I think it will be 3-4 years before DVC prices come back to the highs of early 2020 - JMHO and I could be totally wrong!


----------



## njcoach24

RoseGold said:


> Direct sales is closed right now.  The broker they traditionally send people to is Fidelity.  I would expect to see a ton of Fidelity listings when direct sales opens again.



do you think they are holding listings to keep inventory low?



MICKIMINI said:


> I totally agree that there are one or more people (brokers?) out there with deep pockets buying and they are also out there selling those stripped contracts. It is pretty obvious that they are skewing the availability and prices.
> 
> The good thing is they can't buy everything. I have to disagree though that "prices will stabilize and go back up". DVC resale prices go up and down slowly rather than spike up and down as you can see from your charts



Thank you! And I'm def not an expert by any means but when I was looking to make offers stripped contracts are available and for low prices but you have to wait 2+ years to even go so IMO its more of a wash. And to your point on pricing sliding obviously a lot will depend on COVID and treatments that may come out. If people remain out of work I could see prices sliding more...maybe 5 bucks...I think people are jumping now, look how many AKL were sold in quarter 1 or the number of people still buying at pre-COVID pricing now. If they can't figure out the COVID situation it could become totally worthless also but I think we are on the path to recovery right now unless no treatment comes out and a 2nd wave comes back.


----------



## CastAStone

njcoach24 said:


> do you think they are holding listings to keep inventory low?


No. Several of the brokers have sent out emails begging for listings and have temporarily cut commission rates to try and spur listings.


----------



## Cadbury

We are first time buyers and find it hard to decide to buy now our hold on a month or 2-3.
We are looking to buy a stripped contract @ SSR at about 150 points. We could buy it now at $91 pp
What is your advice? *I know you guys don't have a crystal ball *


----------



## MICKIMINI

Cadbury said:


> We are first time buyers and find it hard to decide to buy now our hold on a month or 2-3.
> We are looking to buy a stripped contract @ SSR at about 150 points. We could buy it now at $91 pp
> What is your advice?


Unless you plan to try to go later this year, WAIT!  If you wait until late fall when MF's are looming large, you can probably get either a cheaper price or more points or likely both.  I'd also consider getting current year points so you can push a year forward by banking.  It's harder to borrow right now with the rules change to 50%, so it is an easy way to "pad" your points and when the current buyers thin out and more contracts hit the market, it will be cheap points.  

The last big contract I bought was 250 points and I got two years back (500) and rented them.  I paid 0 for one years MF's and 50% for the other.  I used most of the other 500 points for ourselves and rented out a few excess and still have plenty 2020 and 2021.  Time is on your side.  Where would you stay with an extra 300-450 points??


----------



## glamdring269

MICKIMINI said:


> Unless you plan to try to go later this year, WAIT!  If you wait until late fall when MF's are looming large, you can probably get either a cheaper price or more points or likely both.  I'd also consider getting current year points so you can push a year forward by banking.  It's harder to borrow right now with the rules change to 50%, so it is an easy way to "pad" your points and when the current buyers thin out and more contracts hit the market, it will be cheap points.



Even if you're going later in the year you could probably rent points now and potentially still come out well ahead by waiting.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Even if a cure for Covid was found tomorrow, you don't shut down the economy for 2 months and then just pick back up right where you left off with no consequences. Layoffs are already happening, and there will be more.  Lots of small businesses will not reopen, ever.  Large retailers have already begun to file bankruptcy. There is economic turmoil ahead and it will take a while to be absorbed and recovered from. I'm optimistic for long term economic recovery, but I think there will be a lot of belt tightening over the next 2-3 years.  I hope I'm wrong! From the beginning of this, people who rode out the last recession said it would take 6 months to 2 years for DVC resale prices to go down significantly.  I think the price reductions we've seen so far are just the beginning.  Six months from March will be September, which is also when those MF will start to loom large for people who pay annually.  If you can wait, wait until at least then.  Prices are certainly not going to go up anytime soon.


----------



## DougEMG

Punkrockbebop said:


> Can you explain to me what is the advantage to these sellers to strip contracts?  I’m just trying to understand.



The resale market has always over valued stripped contracts and undervalued loaded contracts.  So any smart/experienced seller will strip a contract and rent out the points before selling.


----------



## Cadbury

Thanks for your input. We aren't in a rush as we are planning to go 2022


----------



## E2ME2

CastAStone said:


> https://www.bbb.org/us/fl/tampa/pro...ental-marketing/buyatimesharecom-0653-6160390


Those reviews tell me all I need to know.


----------



## ElizabethS22

MamaBear12 said:


> They show an AKV sold for $78/point! They ones they have available have ridiculously high asking prices though...like $16,000 for a 110pt AKV contract. Ummmm...nope!


 This is very tempting   My husband will kill me. I am still waiting on ROFR for my VGF contract


----------



## zavandor

deedubb said:


> Looking for a BWV contract and just found a site that I had never heard of before.  It listed 2 sold contracts for BWV, one for $80 and another at $86.  I wonder if those would pass ROFR.


If it's too good to be true...


----------



## bookwormde

5/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160% of average


----------



## PlutosPetDog

Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
- I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
- My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.

Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?


----------



## ElizabethS22

MICKIMINI said:


> Okay, this is just a theory, but I've been buying/selling DVC for 25 years...I believe there are sellers out there who own multiple contracts (I mean LOTS of contracts) who have been stripping them.  They are renting and/or transferring points for profit which is fine.  I've purchased loaded contracts to rent and use and then flip, but this is an entirely different category of owner since the covid19 thing ramped up.
> 
> In theory, a stripped contract should be worth IMO about $5-6 less PP.  For example, you can rent a point for $15 and after paying MF's net about $7 before paying income taxes.  Current list prices don't seem to be random within a range of prices and almost all the contracts seem to be completely stripped - evenly down to zero.  I don't see this as normal seller listings.
> 
> When buying a contract - say a 100 point contract at $100 PP with two years past, current and next year's points to me anyway, is worth so much more.  I will rent 200 points at $15 and make 3K to offset purchase price - or $30 less net per point.  I negotiate so I don't pay MF's on those two years.  A stripped contract has no value to me.  Long winded, but let me know if I totally missed the point!


How many points do you normally own to rent out a year,   I wonder If this a good time to do this


----------



## ElizabethS22

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?


150 point contract will cost more per point than a 200 point contract.   I recently pulled the trigger for VGF at  148 for 200, with current year points.   I would not buy a stripped contract.


----------



## wnielsen1

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?



Purely speculative, but if Disney restarts ROFR, I would think VGF would be the resort to start with.  If my wife ever greenlights a VGF purchase, I'm doing it immediately before she changes her mind.


----------



## MICKIMINI

ElizabethS22 said:


> How many points do you normally own to rent out a year,   I wonder If this a good time to do this


I just rent excess points.  I did have four rentals last year and have two pending later this year and into next.  I will only rent privately from now on.  Some years we don't rent at all and we'll likely upgrade our villa or stay longer.  It's not a moneymaker, I just hate to lose points.


----------



## MICKIMINI

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?


I can't believe it, but I agree with you - I hope your wife forgives me!  Prices certainly won't go up for a long time and ROFR will likely be on hold for quite some time too.  No one really knows, but I'm waiting to buy again.


----------



## EM Lawrence

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?


When you find the person with the crystal ball, will you let me know what they say?


----------



## Toonses

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?



Nobody can truly tell for certain, but I suspect rofr will prob be paused through this quarter,  and maybe longer depending on what profits look like and when the parks open. Last earnings report wasn’t good and they had to pause stock dividends. The next will be worse since more of the shutdown will show on that one. I think anyplace they can conserve cash for the short term, they will. However I absolutely could be wrong. 

My suggestion is to do what will preserve harmony in the house. If that means purchasing sooner, rather than later and the prices do go down, consider the difference to be the price of your peace of mind and lessening of stress while still knowing you got a deal.


----------



## holyrita

The reason I decided to act now instead of waiting a few more months is we never know when Disney will start acting on ROFR again. I don't doubt prices could continue to go down, but I feel like ROFR could start again out of the blue. 

Also, the ROFR process has been growing longer over the last month and is now taking at least 4 weeks to hear back. Who knows how long the wait could grow to. You might find a great deal in 2-3 months, wind up waiting a month or more for ROFR, and Disney could start taking contracts at any point  

And if I'm completely wrong I'll probably snag another contract  Addonitis.. before even hearing back on my first contract, currently in ROFR!


----------



## holyrita

Also, looks like DVC Resale Market is adding a bunch of contracts tonight. I just got 6 push notifications for Sept UY contracts in the last few hours.


----------



## dulyon

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?


I pulled the trigger on a 'perfect' contract, despite knowing that it could go down a little more in the next 6 months or so because of I hope to slide through ROFR. We are not financing and it doesn't pose a significant drain of resources in the grand scheme of things (thanks to cancelled vacations this year, and we are buying at a cheaper resort). Unless it drops by $10-$15 per point, it's not worth waiting. If your savings is significant, it's worth waiting for. But only you would know your risk tolerance. We missed a contract earlier because my spouse wanted a lower price, but the one we found and bought, was priced better. But he did get evil eyeball from me for a few days. But if we don't pass ROFR (still waiting on that), he will get more evil eyeball from me because it took a few more weeks to find something similar. But in the grand scheme of things, if it gets taken, I would take it as not meant to be and save our resources for other household projects. So, what is your evil eyeball tolerance? Ha-ha. Or, "Remember that time when I was right as usual and you didn't listen" tolerance? Yes, my spouse thinks I'm a barrel of laughs.


----------



## bookwormde

5/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site. 

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


----------



## RoseGold

PlutosPetDog said:


> 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?



I'm also looking into VGF.  Problem is, I'm not sure I want to go to Disney at all if there are no pools, no restaurants, masks, and so on.  And I'm not the only one thinking that.  Disney knows more than we do about how where their operation is going.  To me, ROFR would indicate time to buy.


----------



## TinkB278

RoseGold said:


> I'm also looking into VGF.  Problem is, I'm not sure I want to go to Disney at all if there are no pools, no restaurants, masks, and so on.  And I'm not the only one thinking that.  Disney knows more than we do about how where their operation is going.  To me, ROFR would indicate time to buy.


I completely agree with you.... I found a contract I’m interested in but I just can’t let myself buy it until I know more about what is going to happen with Disney and the world in general in the short and long term.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

TinkB278 said:


> I completely agree with you.... I found a contract I’m interested in but I just can’t let myself buy it until I know more about what is going to happen with Disney and the world in general in the short and long term.


Same here. We are ready to buy more points but so unsure whats going on. We are only planning on using them next summer  or maybe this november over thanksgiving but who knows what's going to happen really.


----------



## E2ME2

bookwormde said:


> 5/20 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.
> 
> When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


3X listings?
Any significant price drops??


----------



## miTnosnhoJ

PlutosPetDog said:


> Hi DIS, my wife and I have watched VGF prices closely for a 140-160pt contract and find ourselves at an impasse:
> - I think we can get a 150pt contract for $130-$140 a point, I am comfortable waiting for additional price declines.
> - My wife thinks we should pull the trigger now for $150 a point because ROFRs can restart at any time, potentially pushing prices back up.
> 
> Essentially we disagree on 1. the timeline of Disney restarting ROFR and 2. the impact ROFRs will have on the resale market (specifically VGF). Anyone else in the same predicament? Should we be thinking about this differently?


It is possible that VGF goes down to $130. The problem is, if it does go down to $130 it will be because there is a long term shutdown at Disney with no clear end in sight. Or it could mean a series of startups and shutdowns that are unpredictable as cases of corona virus spike up. To put it another way, if the price goes to $130, it would mean that the true value is somewhere between $75 and $200, and the standard deviation is large and unstable.   

So you will still have the conundrum of buying at $130, when if you wait a little bit, you could get it at $75, but you could also miss the boat while it goes back to $200.  If we knew what was going to happen, the decision would be easy.

Maybe the best way to think about it is to consider that over the long term, VGF prices at $175 to $200. But over the next 2-3 years, there is a significant risk that you will not be able to use your points. So the value of the first 3 years of visits to VGF, which is a significant part of the purchase price, is in doubt. Hence the discount you get for buying right now. 

If I was in your shoes and I knew I wanted VGF, and I could pay cash, and I could live with the fact that I might not get to use the points for 2-3 years, I might buy at the current price.   The pricing reflects the risk, and there is an upside if a vaccine is developed in record time.

In my case, I am "long" on VGF points (almost 500), so I do not really need any more, but if the price dipped significantly, say in the $100 range,  I would buy some just so we could go more often or have access to the GVs. 

I would keep my eyes firmly on the horizon and make the decision that is best for my family.


----------



## Jaguar Skills

We just put a bid in and had it refused with a seller significantly higher than what we were prepared to pay.   Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...

We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Jaguar Skills said:


> We just put a bid in and had it refused with a seller significantly higher than what we were prepared to pay.   Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...
> 
> We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.


The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal.  But I don’t believe that prices are going upward.  If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right.  But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.

*Edited to add, if this is the broker I think it is, I do think they have successfully convinced people to pay higher prices for Poly.  Most of their sub-200 point contracts at Poly sell almost instantly, and they are priced at the same point they were in early March.  This particular broker spent several months pushing Poly as the best deal going, and I think they have succeeded in creating a strong demand for it. *


----------



## RoseGold

Jaguar Skills said:


> Broker said this, as I think they are getting annoyed with our lowball offers...
> 
> We continue to see prices move upwards as inventory is being steadily depleted. We had 520 active listings for sale on March 1st compared to only 281 today as strong buying activity currently outpaces new listings coming to market shrinking supply.



LOL, good one.  HAHAHA  "strong buying activity"  ??!!??!!  Parks closed, no idea when they will open...  DVC still cancelling week by week...  You let me know what happens to prices when these resorts open at 25% pool capacity and you have to keep a mask on your five year old.  But sure, prices are going up.  Whatever you say.

Brokers have a duty to convey your offer.  That would literally be my response to that email.

If the seller doesn't take it, fine.  I'm not in a hurry, I can tell you that.


----------



## EM Lawrence

miTnosnhoJ said:


> It is possible that VGF goes down to $130. The problem is, if it does go down to $130 it will be because there is a long term shutdown at Disney with no clear end in sight. Or it could mean a series of startups and shutdowns that are unpredictable as cases of corona virus spike up. To put it another way, if the price goes to $130, it would mean that the true value is somewhere between $75 and $200, and the standard deviation is large and unstable.
> 
> So you will still have the conundrum of buying at $130, when if you wait a little bit, you could get it at $75, but you could also miss the boat while it goes back to $200.  If we knew what was going to happen, the decision would be easy.
> 
> Maybe the best way to think about it is to consider that over the long term, VGF prices at $175 to $200. But over the next 2-3 years, there is a significant risk that you will not be able to use your points. So the value of the first 3 years of visits to VGF, which is a significant part of the purchase price, is in doubt. Hence the discount you get for buying right now.
> 
> If I was in your shoes and I knew I wanted VGF, and I could pay cash, and I could live with the fact that I might not get to use the points for 2-3 years, I might buy at the current price.   The pricing reflects the risk, and there is an upside if a vaccine is developed in record time.
> 
> In my case, I am "long" on VGF points (almost 500), so I do not really need any more, but if the price dipped significantly, say in the $100 range,  I would buy some just so we could go more often or have access to the GVs.
> 
> I would keep my eyes firmly on the horizon and make the decision that is best for my family.


The price decreases could be because WDW shuts down on a rolling basis, or they could be created by a market where there is a strong motivation to sell and few people motivated to buy.  The downturn of the economy could produce that without WDW having to suffer any particular distress.  I think either scenario is very likely at this point, and will push prices downward regardless.  BUT, I still think if the right contract for the right price comes along now, it can be a good idea to go ahead and bite.  You make a very good point about waiting until prices hit $130 and then having the same dilemma you have now: will they go even lower?


----------



## CastAStone

EM Lawrence said:


> The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal.  But I don’t believe that prices are going upward.  If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right.  But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.
> 
> *Edited to add, if this is the broker I think it is, I do think they have successfully convinced people to pay higher prices for Poly.  Most of their sub-200 point contracts at Poly sell almost instantly, and they are priced at the same point they were in early March.  This particular broker spent several months pushing Poly as the best deal going, and I think they have succeeded in creating a strong demand for it. *


That broker has only 2 AKV contracts but The Timeshare Store has a dozen active listings.


----------



## MICKIMINI

EM Lawrence said:


> The only two resorts that I’ve seen people complaining over lack of inventory are VGC, which is normal, and AKL, which does seem abnormal.  But I don’t believe that prices are going upward.  If this broker was the only game in town, perhaps they would be right.  But there are lots of other brokers, and from what I have seen, the listing prices can vary significantly between brokers.
> 
> *Edited to add, if this is the broker I think it is, I do think they have successfully convinced people to pay higher prices for Poly.  Most of their sub-200 point contracts at Poly sell almost instantly, and they are priced at the same point they were in early March.  This particular broker spent several months pushing Poly as the best deal going, and I think they have succeeded in creating a strong demand for it. *


Agreed.  Another broker I am friendly with feels $120's is where it is at right now.


----------



## bookwormde

E2ME2 said:


> 3X listings?
> Any significant price drops??


Nothing I noticed, some were even a little higher


----------



## RaymOOOnd

Disney will probably excel at the reopening process relative to other entertainment venues, as they excel at most other things.
If anything, it may become harder and harder to secure reservations at the resorts owing to the need to limit park attendance and occupancy, etc, which would make guaranteed vacations i.e. those afforded by a DVC membership more valuable than ever.
Sorry to all those who are still hoping for some dramatic resale price crash. I don't see it happening.

Even if I'm objectively wrong, a DVC purchase is 90% emotional and 10% objective/rational... which will keep prices high.


----------



## Ice Cream Man

bookwormde said:


> 5/20 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-320% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.
> 
> When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted



Any advice on where a Noob could find the aggregating site you follow?


----------



## CastAStone

Ice Cream Man said:


> Any advice on where a Noob could find the aggregating site you follow?


We’re not allowed to post about it or help people find it here as that site has been banned from Disboards.


----------



## Ice Cream Man

CastAStone said:


> We’re not allowed to post about it or help people find it here as that site has been banned from Disboards.


Now I am intrigued, I must double my efforts to find it. Thanks.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Ice Cream Man said:


> Now I am intrigued, I must double my efforts to find it. Thanks.



lol - it's really not that intriguing.


----------



## JETSDAD

The only site I've seen that shows from multiple companies only seemed to show 2 companies' listings, most of which were the sponsoring company.  Unless there is another one that I'm missing.


----------



## bookwormde

5/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-290% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

My unicorn contract came up yesterday night...70pt, Dec UY at BLT but I hesitated because my husband was asleep and I didn't want to make a big purchase like this without talking to him. Knew it was risky and that it would probably be gone in the morning but I sent him a screenshot anyways. The baby woke us up at 3:30 this morning and my husband asked if that was the contract I've been looking for and when I said yes, he said to make an offer then. Of course it already had an offer accepted! Rookie mistake for sure but at least I now have a prior-authorization to make an offer next time. Guess that will come in another 8 months lol. My hubs does think with the current economy, I might not have to wait as long to see another 70pt, Dec UY BLT contract...guess we'll see!


----------



## mamaofsix

RaymOOOnd said:


> Disney will probably excel at the reopening process relative to other entertainment venues, as they excel at most other things.
> If anything, it may become harder and harder to secure reservations at the resorts owing to the need to limit park attendance and occupancy, etc, which would make guaranteed vacations i.e. those afforded by a DVC membership more valuable than ever.
> Sorry to all those who are still hoping for some dramatic resale price crash. I don't see it happening.
> 
> Even if I'm objectively wrong, a DVC purchase is 90% emotional and 10% objective/rational... which will keep prices high.


With regards to resale prices, I don't think it really matters how much Disney excels at the reopening process or how many reservations are made or what attendance is.  What matters is the economy - how many people lose their jobs and have to sell their contracts.  What matters in ROFR is Disney's financial state, which is grave.  

Just my 2 cents.


----------



## MICKIMINI

CookieandOatmeal said:


> My unicorn contract came up yesterday night...70pt, Dec UY at BLT but I hesitated because my husband was asleep and I didn't want to make a big purchase like this without talking to him. Knew it was risky and that it would probably be gone in the morning but I sent him a screenshot anyways. The baby woke us up at 3:30 this morning and my husband asked if that was the contract I've been looking for and when I said yes, he said to make an offer then. Of course it already had an offer accepted! Rookie mistake for sure but at least I now have a prior-authorization to make an offer next time. Guess that will come in another 8 months lol. My hubs does think with the current economy, I might not have to wait as long to see another 70pt, Dec UY BLT contract...guess we'll see!


What a heartbreak!  Lesson learned - negotiate before the dream contract comes up...hopefully you'll get another with a better price.


----------



## stitchsnk

Just wanted to chime in and say I've been lurking for a while and really holding out for the next couple of months...we are set on PVB and a sweet spot of 110-150 points with a UY of June, Aug, or Sept. Thank you for all of your information and research you do!  We've been renting DVC points for a few years now, and even rented for our January 2021 trip. It's due time to just close our eyes and hit send on an offer!


----------



## MamaBear12

MICKIMINI said:


> What a heartbreak!  Lesson learned - negotiate before the dream contract comes up...hopefully you'll get another with a better price.





CookieandOatmeal said:


> My unicorn contract came up yesterday night...70pt, Dec UY at BLT but I hesitated because my husband was asleep and I didn't want to make a big purchase like this without talking to him. Knew it was risky and that it would probably be gone in the morning but I sent him a screenshot anyways. The baby woke us up at 3:30 this morning and my husband asked if that was the contract I've been looking for and when I said yes, he said to make an offer then. Of course it already had an offer accepted! Rookie mistake for sure but at least I now have a prior-authorization to make an offer next time. Guess that will come in another 8 months lol. My hubs does think with the current economy, I might not have to wait as long to see another 70pt, Dec UY BLT contract...guess we'll see!


Thanks for the reminder that I need to sit down with DH to finalize a budget and what not so I can put in an offer when I find a contract at the right price! We’re not looking for a unicorn point/UY wise at least...


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

MICKIMINI said:


> What a heartbreak!  Lesson learned - negotiate before the dream contract comes up...hopefully you'll get another with a better price.


Definitely lesson learned! We're so used to buying direct where we just call up and say we want X number of points, here is our credit card. Last contract we saw that was in the 70s at BLT for Dec UY was last August but back then, we were definitely not ready to take the plunge and add on. This contract was $155/pt which was okay since it had some 2019 banked points. Hoping for something lower next time we see another unicorn!



MamaBear12 said:


> Thanks for the reminder that I need to sit down with DH to finalize budget and what not so I can put in offer when I find a contract at the right price! We’re not looking for a unicorn point/UY wise at least...


Yes! Definitely have the agreement with the spouse beforehand. We have plenty of banked Poly points right now due to Covid-19 so I don't need the BLT contract NOW so that does make me feel a tad better lol.


----------



## Jelly563

I spent Jan, Feb & some of March trying to buy VGF. ALL of the contracts were $180 or higher,  I offered between $170-175 and was repeatedly declined or laughed at. As soon as I found a contract at $170,   they dipped to $159. So if you think u can get VGF in the $130's  you should ride the unicorn.


----------



## MICKIMINI

stitchsnk said:


> Just wanted to chime in and say I've been lurking for a while and really holding out for the next couple of months...we are set on PVB and a sweet spot of 110-150 points with a UY of June, Aug, or Sept. Thank you for all of your information and research you do!  We've been renting DVC points for a few years now, and even rented for our January 2021 trip. It's due time to just close our eyes and hit send on an offer!



This is like a therapy website for DVC folks.  Welcome to the DVC family - if you have questions, just ask!


----------



## pinkxray

I am looking for a 100pt contract at either AKV or BLT. I know they will be more than larger contracts. I have no plans to travel using the points until spring 2022 so I have been looking at contracts that don’t have points until 2021. However, I see a few options that have  
2020 points available. How much extra should I be willing to pay for 100 points? I would mostly likely have to rent them or transfer them out.


----------



## MICKIMINI

I'm also looking for that unicorn AKV contract - October, right?  I think there is an advantage to getting 2020 points and banking them.  You'll be able to use them until September 30, 2022.  First of all there are hardly any AKV, let alone Oct UY how weird!  I'm hoping if I hold out I can get them for $90 PP.  I'm certainly not paying $115.  I have plenty of points for our stay next year and this is an extra contract.  I'm hoping to find around 120 points which will be dedicated to our AKV stays.  Our son and DIL love the resort and I can see us getting a 2 BR for 4 nights and then moving over to OKW for another week or so.

I haven't figured out the lack of AKV listings as there are normally plenty to go around.  Are the majority of original owners older and better able to withstand the financial trauma?  The fact that there are basically none makes those with a twitchy finger likely to grab them, of course at a higher price.  At some point I guess we will see more contracts hit the market.  Until then I'm stalking...along with you!


----------



## bookwormde

5/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> 5/22 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-200% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.
> 
> When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


Lotta contracts for a Saturday!


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> Lotta contracts for a Saturday!


It is actually Friday's posting, 2/3 were from sites that are not induced on the aggregating site which is unusually high


----------



## gharter

Given the current economy and the number of people out of work, I'm not surprised to see a higher than normal number of contracts available.
While not a quick way to get money, for many owners, it may be an easier way to get a large amount of money to pay bills.
I'm more surprised that prices overall don't seem to have come down a lot yet.


----------



## bookwormde

5/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 50-80% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


----------



## OSUZorba

gharter said:


> Given the current economy and the number of people out of work, I'm not surprised to see a higher than normal number of contracts available.
> While not a quick way to get money, for many owners, it may be an easier way to get a large amount of money to pay bills.
> I'm more surprised that prices overall don't seem to have come down a lot yet.


Prices on real-estate always seem to lag a bit. I think that is because at first you still have a surplus of buyers that have been planning to buy in for awhile. As that existing pool of buyers is satisfied, prices have to drop further to draw in new buyers.

This worked out in my favor in 2009, I sold my house for a 10% loss. A year later the value had tanked another 20%.


----------



## bookwormde

5/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20-50% of average*

For the week of 5/18 to 5/24 newly posted resale contracts at about 135-150% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


----------



## bookwormde

5/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30-60% of average*

* Aggregating site is down so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.

When the aggregating site is back in service the numbers will be adjusted


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

MICKIMINI said:


> I haven't figured out the lack of AKV listings as there are normally plenty to go around. Are the majority of original owners older and better able to withstand the financial trauma? The fact that there are basically none makes those with a twitchy finger likely to grab them, of course at a higher price. At some point I guess we will see more contracts hit the market. Until then I'm stalking...along with you!


It is strange.  AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market.  AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?

For reference:

ResortTotal Points*Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo**1,803,844**Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani**5,595,400**Aulani**11,519,025**Beach Club Villas**3,027,124**Bay Lake Tower**5,732,762**Boardwalk Villas**4,888,837**Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge**1,961,969**Copper Creek Cabin & Villas**3,321,966**Hilton Head Island**1,368,962**Old Key West**7,674,852**Polynesian Villas and Bungalows**4,032,720**Saratoga Springs Resort**13,124,069**Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas**905,250**Vero Beach**1,616,438**Villas at Grand Californian**1,136,865**Villas at Grand Floridian**2,520,379*


----------



## ChipNdale8887

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It is strange.  AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market.  AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?
> 
> For reference:
> 
> ResortTotal Points*Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo**1,803,844**Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani**5,595,400**Aulani**11,519,025**Beach Club Villas**3,027,124**Bay Lake Tower**5,732,762**Boardwalk Villas**4,888,837**Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge**1,961,969**Copper Creek Cabin & Villas**3,321,966**Hilton Head Island**1,368,962**Old Key West**7,674,852**Polynesian Villas and Bungalows**4,032,720**Saratoga Springs Resort**13,124,069**Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas**905,250**Vero Beach**1,616,438**Villas at Grand Californian**1,136,865**Villas at Grand Floridian**2,520,379*


I'd guess maybe it's because AKV is undervalued. Its a beautiful resort selling in the $85-115 range. Outside of location and transportation its right up there with the best resort wise. Plus point costs per night are low so more value. It does sell fast when it does pop up. Especially in certain months like June.

Honestly if I had the choice between SSR, OKW, or AKV, its AKV all the way any day. Plus it has the best expiration date of the cheaper dvc resorts.


----------



## RoseGold

ChipNdale8887 said:


> I'd guess maybe it's because AKV is undervalued. Its a beautiful resort selling in the $85-115 range. Outside of location and transportation its right up there with the best resort wise.



The newer ones are still better values pound for pound (poly/VGF) but boy is that a lot of money upfront.  AKL is the perfect middle ground of getting most of the way there with a lot less cash outlay, and a beautiful, desirable resort with eyepopping cash rates.  It's so easy to book at 7 mo I never considered it, but I definitely see the sweet spot for current resale.


----------



## ChipNdale8887

RoseGold said:


> The newer ones are still better values pound for pound (poly/VGF) but boy is that a lot of money upfront.  AKL is the perfect middle ground of getting most of the way there with a lot less cash outlay, and a beautiful, desirable resort with eyepopping cash rates.  It's so easy to book at 7 mo I never considered it, but I definitely see the sweet spot for current resale.


It depends. Point costs per night at Poly and VGF are much higher than AKV in our travel months of June-July so we'd have to buy more points spending more money. Also VGF is even less of a value since its expiration date is 2062. So your paying $50 more a point at VGF vs AKV, thats where the value is. Poly is a much better buy vs VGF if your okay with Studios.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It is strange.  AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market.  AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?
> 
> For reference:
> 
> ResortTotal Points*Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo**1,803,844**Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani**5,595,400**Aulani**11,519,025**Beach Club Villas**3,027,124**Bay Lake Tower**5,732,762**Boardwalk Villas**4,888,837**Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge**1,961,969**Copper Creek Cabin & Villas**3,321,966**Hilton Head Island**1,368,962**Old Key West**7,674,852**Polynesian Villas and Bungalows**4,032,720**Saratoga Springs Resort**13,124,069**Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas**905,250**Vero Beach**1,616,438**Villas at Grand Californian**1,136,865**Villas at Grand Floridian**2,520,379*


Brilliant minds think alike as they say!!  LOL!!  

Thanks for posting the points - great info!


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It is strange.  AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market.  AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?
> 
> For reference:
> 
> ResortTotal Points*Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo**1,803,844**Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani**5,595,400**Aulani**11,519,025**Beach Club Villas**3,027,124**Bay Lake Tower**5,732,762**Boardwalk Villas**4,888,837**Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge**1,961,969**Copper Creek Cabin & Villas**3,321,966**Hilton Head Island**1,368,962**Old Key West**7,674,852**Polynesian Villas and Bungalows**4,032,720**Saratoga Springs Resort**13,124,069**Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas**905,250**Vero Beach**1,616,438**Villas at Grand Californian**1,136,865**Villas at Grand Floridian**2,520,379*



Just 3-4 months ago I was thinking there was _a lot_ of AKL contracts for sale.  Now people have been buying during the past 2 months and there's a minimal supply.  What I've noticed over 12 years of watching resale is that things are cyclical (not predictable) and different resorts will go in spurts.  There's been times when SSR had a large number available and then has gotten down to where you couldn't find more than a handful with any one broker.


----------



## ofcabbagesandkings

AKL is the only resort I want because it's my favorite WDW resort and I would always be happy to stay there if I couldn't book elsewhere. I'm likewise looking for a small 100-125 resale contract with a Sep-Oct Use Year but I won't pay more than $90pp. If prices don't go that low, then I guess I won't be buying DVC.


----------



## EM Lawrence

KAT4DISNEY said:


> Just 3-4 months ago I was thinking there was _a lot_ of AKL contracts for sale.  Now people have been buying during the past 2 months and there's a minimal supply.  What I've noticed over 12 years of watching resale is that things are cyclical (not predictable) and different resorts will go in spurts.  There's been times when SSR had a large number available and then has gotten down to where you couldn't find more than a handful with any one broker.


It seems like it is VGF‘s turn to have a lot of inventory for sale right now.  Of maybe that’s just with one broker.


----------



## WanderlustinFP

EM Lawrence said:


> It seems like it is VGF‘s turn to have a lot of inventory for sale right now.  Of maybe that’s just with one broker.




I don't own any contracts, but I'm looking to buy VGF resale. Which site do you see a lot of inventory for sale?


----------



## CastAStone

WanderlustinFP said:


> I don't own any contracts, but I'm looking to buy VGF resale. Which site do you see a lot of inventory for sale?


Theres a few dozen here but they are almost all ridiculously overpriced. You'll probably find better prices shopping around.


----------



## WanderlustinFP

CastAStone said:


> Theres a few dozen here but they are almost all ridiculously overpriced. You'll probably find better prices shopping around.




Thanks. I've looked at that site and thought the same regarding their prices.


----------



## UtahDon

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It is strange.  AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market.  AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?




I agree that the market seems to have very few AKV contracts. I purchased a 120 point contract a few weeks ago, still waiting on ROFR.

I had watched the market for similar contracts for 2 months and every time a small point AKV contract came up, it sold within HOURS with several offers placed. I tried to put in an offer on a 100 point contract 90 minutes after it was posted, only to be told the seller had already accepted a full-price offer. The prices are still steady for AKV, at least with smaller contracts, because of simple supply and demand. I think people in the market for more DVC points, like myself, as well as many owners are simply unaffected by the virus economic downturn, or have been able to withstand it. People losing jobs, and desperate for cash, are typically working in the service industry and travel sector... I think many people with career-level office jobs, tech jobs, and professional jobs, are just working from home at full pay.

I paid a few dollars per point more than I wanted, but it was a "perfect" contract for me in terms of points and use year. I was not going to let a few hundred dollars effect something I knew I would keep and use for decades.


----------



## striker1064

ofcabbagesandkings said:


> AKL is the only resort I want because it's my favorite WDW resort and I would always be happy to stay there if I couldn't book elsewhere. I'm likewise looking for a small 100-125 resale contract with a Sep-Oct Use Year but I won't pay more than $90pp. If prices don't go that low, then I guess I won't be buying DVC.



We went through the same thing a few months ago - targeting a 75 - 120 point AKV Oct UY. I only ever saw one at 120 and it went fast, at $120/pp if I remember correctly. Because of the glut of 160 point contracts available, we kept making offers on Oct UY 160 contract until we got one we wanted at a price we were happy with - $102/pp. It ended up not being that much more money for 40 more points.

There's a definite line where it doesn't make any sense to pay a premium for a smaller contract unless you get a seller desperate to sell fast, and for AKV that seems to be smaller than 160 (because there are so many of those).


----------



## bookwormde

5/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## RoseGold

Well, there goes VGF at $140.  Still waiting on those "higher" prices to show up...


----------



## miTnosnhoJ

I looked at a sample of VGF contracts recorded at the Orange County Controller's in May. The range was from $160 to $200 per point. The $200 was for a 25 point contract. Keep in mind that for these to be recorded in May, they were likely negotiated before the pandemic hit. It will be real interesting to track the market in June and July.


----------



## CastAStone

miTnosnhoJ said:


> I looked at a sample of VGF contracts recorded at the Orange County Controller's in May. The range was from $160 to $200 per point. The $200 was for a 25 point contract. Keep in mind that for these to be recorded in May, they were likely negotiated before the pandemic hit. It will be real interesting to track the market in June and July.


How does one do that?


----------



## hlhlaw07

CastAStone said:


> How does one do that?


Just do a search of the recorded deeds. You can figure out the price paid by looking at the document deed tax.


----------



## miTnosnhoJ

CastAStone said:


> How does one do that?



Checking Disney Resales:

Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.

Now you should see the Document Search interface

Enter a Start and End date for your search

Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"

Click "Advanced"

In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field.   I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.

This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.

Now it gets a little tricky.

Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor.   Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.

Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.

You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.

However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.

If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 %  amount of the sales price.  So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price  (plus or minus a few $).

Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point.  For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.

Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.

If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.

There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.


----------



## CastAStone

miTnosnhoJ said:


> Checking Disney Resales:
> 
> Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
> https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
> Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.
> 
> Now you should see the Document Search interface
> 
> Enter a Start and End date for your search
> 
> Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"
> 
> Click "Advanced"
> 
> In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field.   I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.
> 
> This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.
> 
> Now it gets a little tricky.
> 
> Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor.   Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.
> 
> Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.
> 
> You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.
> 
> However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.
> 
> If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 %  amount of the sales price.  So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price  (plus or minus a few $).
> 
> Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point.  For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.
> 
> Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.
> 
> If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.
> 
> There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.


Not all heroes wear capes*! Thank you!

*although I don't know for sure that you do not.


----------



## EYL

miTnosnhoJ said:


> If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 %  amount of the sales price.  So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price  (plus or minus a few $).
> 
> Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point.  For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.



Just an FYI in case you'll find it easier.  The Orange County Comptroller's website also has a fee calculator that will allow you to calculate the _*estimated *_sales price.  You can have a second window open instead of using your calculator:

https://www.occompt.com/official-records/fee-calculators/estimated-purchase-price/


----------



## miTnosnhoJ

CastAStone said:


> Not all heroes wear capes*! Thank you!
> 
> *although I don't know for sure that you do not.


I forget to mention, looking at prices this way is a great way to study the entire market. The downside is that you cannot tell if contracts are loaded or stripped or in between.   So I use this as a tool to see what offers are reasonable. 

I supplement this information with entries in the ROFR thread. The ROFR thread is a small percentage of deals, but you do get info about available points by year.   ROFR is less helpful than you would expect though.  You would expect a stripped contract to go for less than a loaded contract, but it is less correlated than you think, and to the extent it is correlated, it may be because ROFR thread users have more market information than the typical buyer.  Also, ROFR is interesting because it is 2-3 months ahead of the OC site. 

I ignore all broker-provided information. It is in their interest to make the market appear higher than it is.  One way they do this is to selectively report deals. They will almost never report all deals, only their own. 
 I use the Broker’s asking price as an indication of how difficult the negotiation is likely to be. If the broker has priced the contract will above the market, then I know the seller will not take a market offer until it has been sitting for a couple of months with no offers. 

Also, this method is less helpful in a time of rapid change, like now, where we all sense that prices are falling. The legal recording is a lagging indicator. 

At some point, you find the perfect contract for your situation, and you just decide to make it happen. But you do so with knowledge of what if reasonable.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Www.dvcresalemarket.com has been loading up new contracts for sale this afternoon.  I guess the news about WDW reopening is prompting sellers to come to market.


----------



## becauseimnew

EM Lawrence said:


> Www.dvcresalemarket.com has been loading up new contracts for sale this afternoon.  I guess the news about WDW reopening is prompting sellers to come to market.


But nothing that fits my wants... there was a 75pt BWV for $128 but that lasted less than 30 minutes.


----------



## EM Lawrence

becauseimnew said:


> But nothing that fits my wants... there was a 75pt BWV for $128 but that lasted less than 30 minutes.


Do you have their app?  If you see something that you really want, and you are the first to make a full price offer, it is automatically accepted, even if higher offers are made after yours. But you have to be the first one to do it, so the app can be really useful.


----------



## becauseimnew

EM Lawrence said:


> Do you have their app?  If you see something that you really want, and you are the first to make a full price offer, it is automatically accepted, even if higher offers are made after yours. But you have to be the first one to do it, so the app can be really useful.


yes, I didn't know that rule. Thanks. I guess I really need to talk to DH about what he's willing to buy without me waiting for him to reply to my text.


----------



## TinkB278

so weird to me that all these listings are popping up all at once.


----------



## Brianstl

TinkB278 said:


> so weird to me that all these listings are popping up all at once.


My guess is they were telling sellers to hold off on listing until there was a reopening plan in hopes of keeping prices up some.


----------



## TinkB278

Brianstl said:


> My guess is they were telling sellers to hold off on listing until there was a reopening plan in hopes of keeping prices up some.


I bet you’re right. That makes me just want to hold off on buying.


----------



## TinkB278

TinkB278 said:


> I bet you’re right. That makes me just want to hold off on buying.





Brianstl said:


> My guess is they were telling sellers to hold off on listing until there was a reopening plan in hopes of keeping prices up some.


Although now that I’m thinking about it, won’t having a large number of contracts available also lower the price due to the supply being greater? It’s just such an odd occurrence to me.


----------



## CastAStone

TinkB278 said:


> Although now that I’m thinking about it, won’t having a large number of contracts available also lower the price due to the supply being greater? It’s just such an odd occurrence to me.


My guess is that some sellers just wanted some certainty before unloading. Now they have it.


----------



## bookwormde

EM Lawrence said:


> Www.dvcresalemarket.com has been loading up new contracts for sale this afternoon.  I guess the news about WDW reopening is prompting sellers to come to market.


I checked all the sites I have been following and while the number is high it is about were it was mid week last week

Edit, I checked later and this is a new high since I started tracking at 500% of average

This is the most since the stock market tanked earlier this year which was about the same number in 1 day


----------



## starfrenzy

CastAStone said:


> My guess is that some sellers just wanted some certainty before unloading. Now they have it.



Wouldn't it be the other way? Buyers would want some certainty before buying. Why would sellers care? (Honest, curious question.)


----------



## CastAStone

starfrenzy said:


> Wouldn't it be the other way? Buyers would want some certainty before buying. Why would sellers care? (Honest, curious question.)


I mean I don’t think it was particularly clear until today how many points some people even truly had available to sell.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

TinkB278 said:


> so weird to me that all these listings are popping up all at once.



Catching up from a long holiday weekend probably.


----------



## CastAStone

miTnosnhoJ said:


> Checking Disney Resales:
> 
> Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
> https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
> Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.
> 
> Now you should see the Document Search interface
> 
> Enter a Start and End date for your search
> 
> Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"
> 
> Click "Advanced"
> 
> In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field.   I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.
> 
> This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.
> 
> Now it gets a little tricky.
> 
> Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor.   Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.
> 
> Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.
> 
> You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.
> 
> However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.
> 
> If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 %  amount of the sales price.  So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price  (plus or minus a few $).
> 
> Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point.  For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.
> 
> Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.
> 
> If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.
> 
> There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.


So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not _called_ that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:

Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:


And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:


I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.


----------



## becauseimnew

CastAStone said:


> So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not _called_ that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:
> 
> Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
> View attachment 497561
> 
> And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
> View attachment 497565
> 
> I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.


I love data! 

And I would be interested in seeing the trends, could you do this for other resorts? say BRV, or is it too time consuming?


----------



## CastAStone

becauseimnew said:


> I love data!
> 
> And I would be interested in seeing the trends, could you do this for other resorts? say BRV, or is it too time consuming?


If I do it for any others it would be BRV and AKV, the others I am (or my wife is) interested in, but it was surprisingly time consuming, as I have to look at the paper contracts and retype the data, it's not captured by the county digitally. So no promises, but I promise if I do it, I'll post it!


----------



## bookwormde

5/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 520-540% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not _called_ that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:
> 
> Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
> View attachment 497561
> 
> And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
> View attachment 497565
> 
> I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.


Great data!!!

I know there were quite a few under 100 pts in the 80s so when they are recorded we can expect the slide to continue.

OKW is always a little odd becouse the  occasional 2057 contract


----------



## miTnosnhoJ

CastAStone said:


> So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not _called_ that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:
> 
> Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
> View attachment 497561
> 
> And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
> View attachment 497565
> 
> I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.


Well done! As you discovered, to search for Old Key West, you search for DISNEY VACATION CLUB AT WALT DISNEY WORLD RESORT.

This is because OKW was the first DVC, and back then, they didn't know if there would be a 2nd DVC!


----------



## PlutosPetDog

CastAStone said:


> Theres a few dozen here but they are almost all ridiculously overpriced. You'll probably find better prices shopping around.


I've been following that site for the perfect 150 point VGF contract and their prices seem better than the 7-8 other sides I monitor. Am I missing something?


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

miTnosnhoJ said:


> Well done! As you discovered, to search for Old Key West, you search for DISNEY VACATION CLUB AT WALT DISNEY WORLD RESORT.
> 
> This is because OKW was the first DVC, and back then, they didn't know if there would be a 2nd DVC!



And BRV is Villas at Disney's Wilderness Lodge.


----------



## RhodyKP

CastAStone said:


> So I looked through all the OKW postings (which was incredibly difficult to figure out what to search for, as it's not _called_ that in filings with the county!) as it's the resort I'm most interested in and there's basically nothing on the ROFR thread. Few interesting findings:
> 
> Prices have indeed trended down about 15% for OKW, although they are all over the place:
> View attachment 497561
> 
> And then I thought this was interesting - the range and average paid for OKW by number of points:
> View attachment 497565
> 
> I will probably update this monthly or so for myself until I have the free cash flow to buy (probably this fall?) so if people are interested I can post it periodically.


This is fantastic and you're living up to your "math and business nerd" description of yourself.    How far back did you go - mid-February 2020?


----------



## CastAStone

RhodyKP said:


> This is fantastic and you're living up to your "math and business nerd" description of yourself.    How far back did you go - mid-February 2020?


I did contracts posted by the county from 4/1 through 5/26, but the dates I used in my actual analysis were the earliest date on the contract, as I assumed that date was the closest to the actual date the 2 parties agreed on a price; that date was typically about 30 days earlier but it varied quite a bit, hence the dates all the way back into February (I even had a January date but I excluded it from my chart as it stretched it substantially without adding to the story at all)


----------



## E2ME2

I think the fire sale is over.  January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
ET


----------



## PlutosPetDog

E2ME2 said:


> I think the fire sale is over.  January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
> Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
> ET



I think that's incredibly unlikely. There's going to be a huge resurgence in COVID cases in the next few weeks. Plus the enormous economic damage that will take years to unwind. I don't see how prices return to pre-COVID levels in the next 2 years.


----------



## glamdring269

E2ME2 said:


> I think the fire sale is over.  January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
> Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
> ET



The reopenings aren't suddenly solving this massive unemployment issue. We'll see where it shakes out over the next several months.


----------



## heynowirv

CastAStone said:


> BRV and OKW for $83. If I had the cash I'd buy right now.
> 
> On the flip side their AKV prices are outrageous. $145?


how legit are they? And they don't list UY or points that are available


----------



## DougEMG

PlutosPetDog said:


> I think that's incredibly unlikely. There's going to be a huge resurgence in COVID cases in the next few weeks. Plus the enormous economic damage that will take years to unwind. I don't see how prices return to pre-COVID levels in the next 2 years.



Not everyone is being effected the same way during this event.  All of my friends are still working, mostly at home, but they are all still on full pay.  So they haven't been hit economically at all.  

Are there a significant number of DVC owners and future DVC buyers that are being hit with financial hardships right now?  I've no idea.


----------



## Thegoofysmers

They're probably trending lower for the next 18 months at least. Decisions to unload contracts will need to be made once annual maintenance fees are due both this year and next.  And now with limitations on access to parks for the foreseeable future, the short term value of the contract will be negatively affected.


----------



## Jhoyer5150

We've already seen some degree of price degradation - even before the virus Boardwalk and Poly were showing some price deterioration.  Grand Floridian has cratered to $145 area, Saratoga averages are now low 90s (and we saw one print at 81.25), Animal Kingdom failed to hold $100 (saw a $95 earlier this week there), etc.  But the price moves have not been created equal: Grand Cali for instance is still extremely hard to source let alone procure at anything under $200.  Beach Club still commands a premium.  Copper and Bay Lake haven't moved as much as I would have predicted.  

CastAStone has others have done great work on inventory and price history data and while the low inventory might have helped for awhile, I agree with some here that perhaps agents were advising listing only after WDW had announced a reopening.  What is clear, now, however, is that there is a supply glut coming online, AND the reopening will not exactly be the WDW we all know and love.  Moreover, the larger macroeconomic problems are unlikely to resolve themselves anytime soon - particularly as they relate to a category like travel.  Nearly 20% of WDW guests are international - that's essentially stopped for the time being.  You can't wipe out 1/5th of your customer base and not feel it.   Yes, the unemployment has disproportionately negatively impacted lower economic classes than the upper-middle class demographics of DVC ownership - but again, if there's 40mm people out of work in this country, its hard to project an economic expansion anytime soon - so even if you "don't know anybody who's lost a job", it doesn't mean consumer spending is OK (it's not).  DVC prices will follow suit - perhaps more slowly at first, perhaps gradually rather than cratering - but fall they will.


----------



## bookwormde

5/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## becauseimnew

E2ME2 said:


> I think the fire sale is over.  January is historically a lower priced month, as folks want to sell to before paying another full year's worth of MFs.
> Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.
> ET


unfortunately I don't think this pandemic is over, as much as I wish it were. I work for local government and though we are returning to the office on Monday the city leaders are preparing for us to work from home again this fall. So many business are closing permanently, it so sad.


----------



## TinkB278

Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.


----------



## CastAStone

TinkB278 said:


> Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.


If DVC members have park access preference (which we don't know yet but seems likely to me), I think the opposite could happen. We shall see.


----------



## E2ME2

TinkB278 said:


> Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.


If you found that "perfect deal"on resale right now, you would pass because of the temporary ADR change ??


----------



## RoseGold

E2ME2 said:


> Low prices extended into March this year due to the virus, but with the reopenings announced, I think they will level off and perhaps start increasing again.



You must be able to keep a mask on a five year old longer than I can.


----------



## MinnieSueB

RoseGold said:


> You must be able to keep a mask on a five year old longer than I can.


That's the million $ question for Disney - How long are they going to require masks?  MANY people are a NO GO on the mask requirement.


----------



## TinkB278

E2ME2 said:


> If you found that "perfect deal"on resale right now, you would pass because of the temporary ADR change ??


Yes, I definitely would. I thought any big changes would only last through maybe beginning of next year. Now that I see that things will not be the same (if they ever will) I’m not sure that I want to invest all my time and money into Disney like I was ready to at the beginning of this year. I absolutely love WDW so this is heartbreaking for me.

It’s not just taking away the dining plan, it’s also the loss of park hopping, fireworks etc. I just need to see that things will be how they used to be before I can make this kind of commitment.


----------



## CastAStone

MinnieSueB said:


> That's the million $ question for Disney - How long are they going to require masks?  MANY people are a NO GO on the mask requirement.


I think given just how many reservations they need to cancel (most of them?), they're OK with that.


----------



## lovethesun12

TinkB278 said:


> Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.


Perhaps. I think it will drop lower but mostly due to the medical concerns, park restrictions, travel advisory/restrictions, and travel insurance changes. There are also a large group of owners that cannot actually use DVC since there are so many travel restrictions. A lot of international travelers now will have to travel without insurance, that alone has to drop the number of visitors so even when disney fully reopens, I think you will be looking at huge future discounts as well to fill rooms, which will also impact resale value.  Also there's the whole unemployment issue. Potential difficulty with loans. Also we don't know if/when there will be a vaccine and even if it is passed on a miracle timeline, it still has to be manufactured and distributed worldwide. Oh and don't forget the mental health of having to force kids to wear masks (I mean that one tongue in cheek, but some people really are not super happy about that). Also, ROFR is not going to start anytime soon. ETA: Also the rental market uncertainty. I almost made an offer on a contract that was oh so fairly priced last night and perfect for me. My brain went - oh, what a deal! To - wait, I can't travel. Then - who cares I'll try to rent the points if I can't travel. Finally - I can't risk losing all those points with all the rental market uncertainty bringing the contract to not so great a deal for me. 

To sum up, this is a huge sheetstorm of which sheet will not stop sheeting for quite some time.


----------



## Toonses

MinnieSueB said:


> That's the million $ question for Disney - How long are they going to require masks?  MANY people are a NO GO on the mask requirement.



Yeah - I actually have reservations for 7/10-14. I'll be in FL anyway during that time, and I'd figured I'd just add a few days and do a solo trip since I have an AP from a trip I did last year. I even had a Villain AH ticket for the 10th which I got a notification about this AM. Basically, given the fact that EPCOT and HS won't be open while I'm there, the mask thing and the rest - I'm probably going to cancel the trip. Going to wait a bit just in case anything changes (especially with Universal opening June which possibly might affect some of this), but right now things aren't looking good for me to go.


----------



## CarolynFH

TinkB278 said:


> Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.


I know a lot of DVC members do like to buy the dining plan, but at least as many if not more seem to prefer cooking in their villa as well as using TIW, AP or DVC discounts. There are many posts on this board by DVC members stating that the dining plan does not make financial sense for their particular family. So I don’t think that abolishing the dining plan will have any significant effect on resale prices in the coming year.


----------



## MinnieSueB

Toonses said:


> Yeah - I actually have reservations for 7/10-14. I'll be in FL anyway during that time, and I'd figured I'd just add a few days and do a solo trip since I have an AP from a trip I did last year. I even had a Villain AH ticket for the 10th which I got a notification about this AM. Basically, given the fact that EPCOT and HS won't be open while I'm there, the mask thing and the rest - I'm probably going to cancel the trip. Going to wait a bit just in case anything changes (especially with Universal opening June which possibly might affect some of this), but right now things aren't looking good for me to go.


We will be there July 14-18 with a split stay at SSR & AKL.  Hope we are able to get into the parks.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

TinkB278 said:


> Well, I know it’s not really related, but any thoughts on whether the price of resale might drop due to Disney canceling the ability to buy a dining plan through next September (2021)? The dining plan is an essential for us as it makes the trip feel all inclusive so I’ve decided to put buying DVC on hold until next year at least, to see how close to normal the parks will ever get again.



I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market.  In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more and one shouldn't be counting on anything else or assuming that everything will continue as it is.   If other Disney policy changes make a difference then DVC might end up being a sad disappointment in the future.  Now with that said I don't really expect any big changes and what is going on in the short term will normalize moving forward.

Regarding the dining plan - we've gotten it exactly twice.  Once when it first came out and again for a single night when we had a split stay.  The numbers have never worked out and all inclusive feel isn't important but can be achieved for me just by having funds on a GC.  You have to provide them something when you eat so it's just a GC instead of a MB or room card.  We hate having dining dictated by a pre-purchased plan and every time I've calculated it would have cost us more.


----------



## becauseimnew

KAT4DISNEY said:


> I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market.  In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more and one shouldn't be counting on anything else or assuming that everything will continue as it is.   If other Disney policy changes make a difference then DVC might end up being a sad disappointment in the future.  Now with that said I don't really expect any big changes and what is going on in the short term will normalize moving forward.
> 
> Regarding the dining plan - we've gotten it exactly twice.  Once when it first came out and again for a single night when we had a split stay.  The numbers have never worked out and all inclusive feel isn't important but can be achieved for me just by having funds on a GC.  You have to provide them something when you eat so it's just a GC instead of a MB or room card.  We hate having dining dictated by a pre-purchased plan and every time I've calculated it would have cost us more.


Same here... specially now that both DDs will be Disney Adults.  I am glad we had the plan our first trip, or I don't think DH would have agreed to ever return, but since the food bills were only 4 credits and not $180   he didn't care about the prices.


----------



## jamier2

KAT4DISNEY said:


> I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market.  In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more...



I agree in theory all you buy is the room but honestly very few people buy DVC for the room. They buy for Disney World mostly and the perceived savings. If those rooms were in some random city they’d be worth about what other timeshares are. Very little.

I can’t speak for others but I suspect that I wouldn’t be alone in dumping DVC if things don’t ever go back to normal. The resorts are nice and all but I’d definitely go elsewhere for vacation if the parks weren’t there.


----------



## TinkB278

KAT4DISNEY said:


> I'd be surprised if that affected the DVC resale market.  In the end DVC is about a room and nothing more and one shouldn't be counting on anything else or assuming that everything will continue as it is.   If other Disney policy changes make a difference then DVC might end up being a sad disappointment in the future.  Now with that said I don't really expect any big changes and what is going on in the short term will normalize moving forward.
> 
> Regarding the dining plan - we've gotten it exactly twice.  Once when it first came out and again for a single night when we had a split stay.  The numbers have never worked out and all inclusive feel isn't important but can be achieved for me just by having funds on a GC.  You have to provide them something when you eat so it's just a GC instead of a MB or room card.  We hate having dining dictated by a pre-purchased plan and every time I've calculated it would have cost us more.


DVC might just be a room and no one should expect any more beyond a room but nearly every single person does expect more than just a room when they buy DVC. They expect the Disney experience they have been used to.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

jamier2 said:


> I agree in theory all you buy is the room but honestly very few people buy DVC for the room. They buy for Disney World mostly and the perceived savings. If those rooms were in some random city they’d be worth about what other timeshares are. Very little.
> 
> I can’t speak for others but I suspect that I wouldn’t be alone in dumping DVC if things don’t ever go back to normal. The resorts are nice and all but I’d definitely go elsewhere for vacation if the parks weren’t there.



That doesn't necessarily mean an issue with DVC but more that Disney isn't an vacation that you consider worthwhile anymore.  I've been going for eons now and have seen it go from a single park in DL (albeit I was very young) to adding a second stand alone park at WDW to what it's grown into today.  Things change and will continue to change and yes, everyone has to decide if it's where they want to spend money.  I don't see that as a DVC specific issue though per se.   And if attendance falls further than they want or need they'll do something to encourage it because it's their business to have vacationeers.   



TinkB278 said:


> DVC might just be a room and no one should expect any more beyond a room but nearly every single person does expect more than just a room when they buy DVC. They expect the Disney experience they have been used to.



That would be ignoring the fact that DVC is a timeshare that _only_ guarantees a room on a first come first served basis.  Now of course it's a timeshare that has locations at 2 hugely popular places but it is "just a timeshare".     CLUB is marketing.    And I guess that we now see even the room guarantee isn't absolute but this is an unusual time.  I'd not use whatever happens in the next year or two as a basis for what will occur in the future.


----------



## taaren

jamier2 said:


> I can’t speak for others but I suspect that I wouldn’t be alone in dumping DVC if things don’t ever go back to normal. The resorts are nice and all but I’d definitely go elsewhere for vacation if the parks weren’t there.


Disney doesn't lose any money if you sell your DVC, though. It just means that someone else will be paying your dues and taking the room. The best thing about DVC for Disney is the captured money, once you buy .... someone will be there to take your place, buy park tickets, buy food and mouse ears.


----------



## jamier2

taaren said:


> Disney doesn't lose any money if you sell your DVC, though. It just means that someone else will be paying your dues and taking the room. The best thing about DVC for Disney is the captured money, once you buy .... someone will be there to take your place, buy park tickets, buy food and mouse ears.



I don’t see anywhere in my post that I said anything about Disney losing anything from any action on my part. I obviously know that the contract I’m waiting to pass ROFR was already purchased and Disney has their cash.

If Disney remains as it always has been as far as desirable then they will still get my money. Hopefully for my family that is the case.

In a worst case scenario - that the Disney world parks experience is diminished enough by restrictions to actually drop demand significantly - it’s hard to imagine the demand for DVC across the board would not follow suit. That’s my only point. I love DVC but I know that without the parks the demand just wouldn’t be there. My point was simply that the value (or perceived value) of a DVC contract for the vast majority of owners is the Disney experience and the parks.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

jamier2 said:


> I don’t see anywhere in my post that I said anything about Disney losing anything from any action on my part. I obviously know that the contract I’m waiting to pass ROFR was already purchased and Disney has their cash.
> 
> If Disney remains as it always has been as far as desirable then they will still get my money. Hopefully for my family that is the case.
> 
> In a worst case scenario - that the Disney world parks experience is diminished enough by restrictions to actually drop demand significantly - it’s hard to imagine the demand for DVC across the board would not follow suit. That’s my only point. I love DVC but I know that without the parks the demand just wouldn’t be there. My point was simply that the value (or perceived value) of a DVC contract for the vast majority of owners is the Disney experience and the parks.



It might be that it becomes more popular if per chance that for quite some time it's onsite guests that are guaranteed to get into the parks and everyone offsite fights for reservation spots.


----------



## CarolynFH

jamier2 said:


> I don’t see anywhere in my post that I said anything about Disney losing anything from any action on my part. I obviously know that the contract I’m waiting to pass ROFR was already purchased and Disney has their cash.
> 
> If Disney remains as it always has been as far as desirable then they will still get my money. Hopefully for my family that is the case.
> 
> In a worst case scenario - that the Disney world parks experience is diminished enough by restrictions to actually drop demand significantly - it’s hard to imagine the demand for DVC across the board would not follow suit. That’s my only point. I love DVC but I know that without the parks the demand just wouldn’t be there. My point was simply that the value (or perceived value) of a DVC contract for the vast majority of owners is the Disney experience and the parks.


I fully agree with you.  My response above was to the question of whether inability to buy a dining plan would in and of itself reduce DVC resale prices, and I don’t think it would. Obviously it makes a difference to some potential buyers, but I think they’re in the minority.


----------



## RamblingMad

I think, they continue to drop until the parks get back to normal.


----------



## Brianstl

RamblingMad said:


> I think, they continue to drop until the parks get back to normal.


And probably more importantly the economy.


----------



## RamblingMad

Brianstl said:


> And probably more importantly the economy.



Home prices are expected to drop about a point. I expect DVC to do roughly the same. But I’m guessing.


----------



## Noah_t

I think they will keep dropping.   Up until this Pandemic DVC was a pretty solid bet.  Rental prices are down and I suspect might never recover.  The boards are full of people who swear they will no longer rent points.  Disney also is losing a lot of goodwill with these recent changes and cancellations.  The one thing Disney could do to help salvage DVC's value would be to put DVC at the top of the queue for getting into the parks.  If DVC is seen as just a room as many people here are saying then the price will really drop.  I


----------



## DougEMG

Over the 50 year life of a contract, the pandemic is just another blip, no different than the 2008 market crash, or 9/11 in 2001.  Prices are going to drop in the short term, it is just a question of how long the lower prices last.  Demand recovered for Disney after each of those events and I expect it will after this as well.


----------



## bookwormde

5/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120-140% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

5/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 150-170% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## CastAStone

RamblingMad said:


> Home prices are expected to drop about a point. I expect DVC to do roughly the same. But I’m guessing.


There are several reasons I don’t think the two are comparable. For one, no one NEEDS DVC. Everyone needs a place to live. For another, the depreciation and carrying costs of DVC make it an impractical arbitrage opportunity between any lower value and its expected future value for an investor (unless the bottom absolutely falls out).

As a result (and looking at past history) I’d expect DVC resale to behave not like the housing market but rather like the market for used luxury cars or used yachts - substantial drops during recessions, take longer to recover than the market writ large, but with a long enough recovery, becomes whole again.


----------



## bookwormde

5/31 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 20-40% of average*

For the week of 5/25 to 5/31 newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## RoseGold

I have been watching carefully and had put in two offers in the last week, but I think I'm out of the market for now.  I was READY to buy, and now I am not.  I just can't see buying until I know that Disney as it was will exist again.

I just canceled my fall trip, and I was surprised how sad it made me.  We were looking forward to the Halloween party, but nobody will be passing out candy for a long time.

I do think prices will continue to fall.  Hard to justify ticket prices and dues when so much is missing and no idea when/if Disney full strength will come back.


----------



## becauseimnew

RoseGold said:


> I have been watching carefully and had put in two offers in the last week, but I think I'm out of the market for now.  I was READY to buy, and now I am not.  I just can't see buying until I know that Disney as it was will exist again.
> 
> I just canceled my fall trip, and I was surprised how sad it made me.  We were looking forward to the Halloween party, but nobody will be passing out candy for a long time.
> 
> I do think prices will continue to fall.  Hard to justify ticket prices and dues when so much is missing and no idea when/if Disney full strength will come back.


We too were ready to buy but I think we've decided to hold off until we know more about operational changes. We love Disney and are going back but I don't know when that will be.


----------



## TinkB278

becauseimnew said:


> We too were ready to buy but I think we've decided to hold off until we know more about operational changes. We love Disney and are going back but I don't know when that will be.


I’m in the same boat as both of you. I put in an offer last week but news of the dining plan being canceled through 9/2021 doesn’t make me feel good about anything being remotely normal any time soon although I guess that is to be expected as long as we don’t have a cure/vaccine.

I actually feel kind of thankful this whole ordeal happened prior to me buying DVC. My current thought process is that they are saying with globalization, pandemics like this are more likely than they once were, so I feel like DVC could be a risky and not very economical investment if we are to have events happen such as this one repeatedly. I feel safer just renting points and taking advantage of promos like free dining and not taking on such a big and long term financial commitment like DVC.


----------



## lovethesun12

RoseGold said:


> I have been watching carefully and had put in two offers in the last week, but I think I'm out of the market for now.  I was READY to buy, and now I am not.  I just can't see buying until I know that Disney as it was will exist again.
> 
> I just canceled my fall trip, and I was surprised how sad it made me.  We were looking forward to the Halloween party, but nobody will be passing out candy for a long time.
> 
> I do think prices will continue to fall.  Hard to justify ticket prices and dues when so much is missing and no idea when/if Disney full strength will come back.


Same! I made a few offers I thought were reasonable but didn’t even receive a counter. It doesn’t seem like anyone really wants to budge and I’d rather wait it out than lock into due payments with all this uncertainty. If I have to pay a little higher because I waited until things got more sensible I’ll be very ok with that.


----------



## Dawg74

We are in the same boat as some of you here.  We love the idea of DVC and have been considering it but we need to see some light at the end of the tunnel first.  I still think the day will come where things will return to something similar to the way it was before but we are going to wait and see for now.


----------



## Brian Noble

When I posted earlier in this thread, I was mostly thinking about the impact of recession/depression on prices in the form of more motivated sellers into a market of fewer interested buyers. I don't think it occurred to me how much operational changes would contribute to increase the imbalance even further.

Of course, now that we are a few months into it, it makes perfect sense. My own family cancelled both a 7-night DCL cruise and a trip to Japan to see Tokyo, Kyoto, and TDL this summer. We are not planning to reschedule either in the foreseeable future.

But it goes much farther than that. Given some of the science I've read (enclosed spaces with long visit durations are highest risk) I don't expect to be in a sit-down restaurant or a movie theater for a good long time, let alone a cruise ship or a theme park with slow-moving indoor queues, 6 ft. distancing or not. And that's before even thinking about what it would take for me to feel comfortable being in an airplane for several hours.


----------



## jkevinmcg

I too feel the same as those who are pulling back for now. I made a few offers that were turned down or flat out ignored, but with the unknown operational impact on top of what appears to be a perfect storm of dismal situations (virus, riots and China), I'm pulling back until it appears that things are getting better.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

I'm still in for more points if prices drop dramatically.  Like....2009 - 2011 drops.  

Disney will not stay in the dumper for the length of a contract.  I can weather a few storms.

However, if prices remain strong, I will likely try to get point transfers in the short term and see how things go.  (Already a member with blue card)  Or maybe even take advantage of some discounts that they may throw out for a stay at a mod or something.  We do still love POR.  We just like 2 rooms now.

I'm also a tad bit interested in Reflections.  So, if I haven't added on before that opens, I may buy a contract there direct that will keep my kids as blue card holders well into their later years if they still have interest.  Right now, our blue card status will expire in 2042.  And if they are essentially being given our contracts, I can't imagine them being upset if it has crappy resale value.


----------



## bookwormde

6/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-160% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## glamdring269

The near perfect (for us) AKV contract posted this morning. But now I'm just really concerned with buying anything like this at the moment. Oh well, there will always be more contracts!


----------



## TinkB278

glamdring269 said:


> The near perfect (for us) AKV contract posted this morning. But now I'm just really concerned with buying anything like this at the moment. Oh well, there will always be more contracts!


That’s what I have to keep reminding myself. There will always be more contracts if I do feel comfortable buying in the future.


----------



## RoseGold

Direct sales is currently closed.  I would expect more listings once they open again.


----------



## Frederic Civish

bookwormde said:


> 6/1 update:  number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-160% of average*


Demand for DVC will remain very high, but the number of people who are ready to sell will also remain high.  This will probably continue into next year, when everyone who has points they didn't use in March, April, May, June and July will be out trying to use their points, and finding slim pickings.  So frustration will push a few more people to market.

However, I don't expect prices to drop too far.  I think 20% is too much.  And they will probably be back up again by next Summer or next Fall. For most properties.

Since there is an increased proportion of longer term contract holders in the 'Legacy 2042' properties, and those people tend to be older (because the have owned longer), it wouldn't surprise me to see a disproportionate number of the Legacy 42 contracts hit the market.  This would tend to push down the price for those.  So, perhaps Boardwalk and Yacht Club might become significantly lower.  Perhaps a bigger drop than the newer DVC properties.  But I don't even expect that, though I do expect a somewhat bigger long term drop in those properties now.


----------



## G.C.

First post. WDW vet, DVC noob. Thank you to everyone here who by your posts have helped me come to an agreement on our first contract - a fair deal at PVB sent to ROFR today. Going over to that thread now to try and figure out the string mechanics.


----------



## MommaBerd

G.C. said:


> First post. WDW vet, DVC noob. Thank you to everyone here who by your posts have helped me come to an agreement on our first contract - a fair deal at PVB sent to ROFR today. Going over to that thread now to try and figure out the string mechanics.



congrats!!!


----------



## Bondo9

In the toilet. I am a loyal Disney fan. But the magic is gone. I don’t say this because of covid. I say this because Disney canceled our  trip and than told us our points are gone. Yup that’s right' the points we booked for this summers trip “that they canceled “ that where banked in 2019 and used for this summer are gone. We understood the cancellation but they would not allow us to move the points to a next summer June trip, which is all we asked. Instead they said we would have to use them by February in this school year. We have kids and they have already missed to much school so no. So we will lose those points and thats their words not mine “we are sol”. They lady at Dvc said that it’s wrong but they have no option. So I guess the new ceo who said to “lead by example” means lead by greed and causing you loyal fans financial harm. So yes the points will lose value because they don’t value you or I as loyal family but as a pay check.


----------



## becauseimnew

Bondo9 said:


> In the toilet. I am a loyal Disney fan. But the magic is gone. I don’t say this because of covid. I say this because Disney canceled our  trip and than told us our points are gone. Yup that’s right' the points we booked for this summers trip “that they canceled “ that where banked in 2019 and used for this summer are gone. We understood the cancellation but they would not allow us to move the points to a next summer June trip, which is all we asked. Instead they said we would have to use them by February in this school year. We have kids and they have already missed to much school so no. So we will lose those points and thats their words not mine “we are sol”. They lady at Dvc said that it’s wrong but they have no option. So I guess the new ceo who said to “lead by example” means lead by greed and causing you loyal fans financial harm. So yes the points will lose value because they don’t value you or I as loyal family but as a pay check.


I’m so sorry you are losing points, but Disney is giving you a chance to use them and you are refusing because it doesn’t fit your family. The pandemic is not Disney’s fault, they are doing the best that they can.


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

Bondo9 said:


> In the toilet. I am a loyal Disney fan. But the magic is gone. I don’t say this because of covid. I say this because Disney canceled our  trip and than told us our points are gone. Yup that’s right' the points we booked for this summers trip “that they canceled “ that where banked in 2019 and used for this summer are gone. We understood the cancellation but they would not allow us to move the points to a next summer June trip, which is all we asked. Instead they said we would have to use them by February in this school year. We have kids and they have already missed to much school so no. So we will lose those points and thats their words not mine “we are sol”. They lady at Dvc said that it’s wrong but they have no option. So I guess the new ceo who said to “lead by example” means lead by greed and causing you loyal fans financial harm. So yes the points will lose value because they don’t value you or I as loyal family but as a pay check.



There's no way to double bank points which in essence is what you want done. If they did that for you, they have to do that for everyone. That would result in too many points and not enough rooms. Your points aren't gone, they just aren't usable for the timeframe you want.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Bondo9 said:


> In the toilet. I am a loyal Disney fan. But the magic is gone. I don’t say this because of covid. I say this because Disney canceled our  trip and than told us our points are gone. Yup that’s right' the points we booked for this summers trip “that they canceled “ that where banked in 2019 and used for this summer are gone. We understood the cancellation but they would not allow us to move the points to a next summer June trip, which is all we asked. Instead they said we would have to use them by February in this school year. We have kids and they have already missed to much school so no. So we will lose those points and thats their words not mine “we are sol”. They lady at Dvc said that it’s wrong but they have no option. So I guess the new ceo who said to “lead by example” means lead by greed and causing you loyal fans financial harm. So yes the points will lose value because they don’t value you or I as loyal family but as a pay check.



Depending on the amount you can use them to trade via RCI - maybe a short trip somewhere nearer to you?  Or rent them out.


----------



## Bondo9

I understand your point but I didn’t cancel my trip. They did. That puts the burden of doing the right thing on them. If I had canceled the trip I would expect not a thing in return I now the rules. That’s not the case. They canceled my trip. I agree they are offering till February ie “ that’s when they expire” but that puts the burden of booking a trip in the school year on me and my kids. Since when have you heard of Disney canceling a two week trip. Never is my guess. I am not asking for some far out thing. 
So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.


----------



## TinkB278

Bondo9 said:


> I understand your point but I didn’t cancel my trip. They did. That puts the burden of doing the right thing on them. If I had canceled the trip I would expect not a thing in return I now the rules. That’s not the case. They canceled my trip. I agree they are offering till February ie “ that’s when they expire” but that puts the burden of booking a trip in the school year on me and my kids. Since when have you heard of Disney canceling a two week trip. Never is my guess. I am not asking for some far out thing.
> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
> Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.


There really wasn’t much more Disney could do in terms of DVC. They didn’t close down due to something in their control like renovations. There is a global pandemic happening. They only have so many points allotted per year.

I would be very disappointed if I were in your position to but this is something way beyond Disney’s control.

I also think that this has made many realize the risk in buying a long term commitment like DVC.


----------



## Frederic Civish

Bondo9 said:


> In the toilet. I am a loyal Disney fan. But the magic is gone. I don’t say this because of covid. I say this because Disney canceled our  trip and than told us our points are gone. Yup that’s right' the points we booked for this summers trip “that they canceled “ that where banked in 2019 and used for this summer are gone. We understood the cancellation but they would not allow us to move the points to a next summer June trip, which is all we asked. Instead they said we would have to use them by February in this school year.



There actually is a lot of good availability for DVC rooms in late July and early August, before school starts.

Also, you might consider making a reservation for that period and then trying to rent it out.  You might not be able to get full value, but you can probably get some.


----------



## CastAStone

Bondo9 said:


> I understand your point but I didn’t cancel my trip. They did. That puts the burden of doing the right thing on them. If I had canceled the trip I would expect not a thing in return I now the rules. That’s not the case. They canceled my trip. I agree they are offering till February ie “ that’s when they expire” but that puts the burden of booking a trip in the school year on me and my kids. Since when have you heard of Disney canceling a two week trip. Never is my guess. I am not asking for some far out thing.
> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
> Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.


Disney doesn’t own the room, you do. The pandemic canceled your vacation, not Disney. When you purchased an ownership interest in the resort the responsibility to make it right transferred from Disney to you. Giving you 6 extra months is a gift from them, and honestly it’s at the expense of the other DVC owners who may not find sufficient availability as a result of people rescheduling with points that were supposed to have expired.

That said, I’m sorry that your vacation was canceled and I’m sorry that you can’t reschedule. That REALLY *****. I’d be furious too.


----------



## linzjane88

Bondo9 said:


> I understand your point but I didn’t cancel my trip. They did. That puts the burden of doing the right thing on them. If I had canceled the trip I would expect not a thing in return I now the rules. That’s not the case. They canceled my trip. I agree they are offering till February ie “ that’s when they expire” but that puts the burden of booking a trip in the school year on me and my kids. Since when have you heard of Disney canceling a two week trip. Never is my guess. I am not asking for some far out thing.
> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
> Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.



They didn't steal anything from you. A worldwide pandemic happened. 

You have ample time to recoup your vacation by being flexible and booking alternate dates, transferring to RCI, or renting the points out to recoup your cost. You are choosing to have a terrible attitude about a situation that's probably impacted a majority of this message board.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Bondo9 said:


> I understand your point but I didn’t cancel my trip. They did. That puts the burden of doing the right thing on them. If I had canceled the trip I would expect not a thing in return I now the rules. That’s not the case. They canceled my trip. I agree they are offering till February ie “ that’s when they expire” but that puts the burden of booking a trip in the school year on me and my kids. Since when have you heard of Disney canceling a two week trip. Never is my guess. I am not asking for some far out thing.
> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
> Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.



And the rest of this summer?  It hasn't even started yet and the resorts open in 3 weeks.


----------



## RoseGold

Bondo9 said:


> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.



You aren't getting those points.

So sell the contract and don't go at all.  I could have flown to Europe and gotten a steak at somewhere much better for what I spent on my last Disney trip.  I totally get feeling burned by Disney, and even being done with Disney, but spitefully spending your money at a theme park seems like a weird way to show it.


----------



## bookwormde

6/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-350% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15 and 5/31 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for many resorts is getting small, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20 above the average are impacting the averages



Reduced

……3/31      4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31          



AKV       110         109         109         104         ND      

AUL        97           93           92           96           93        

BLT         144         146         146         145         145        

BCV        138         137         140         142         143        

BWV      118         118         116         114         113       

BRV        100         ND          94           94           94        

CCV        148         150         150         148         148        

VGF       168         168         168         168         166        

HH          74           74           74           74           73         

OKW      95           94           93           93           92        

POLY      143         144         144         144         142        

SS           102         98           101         101         102       

VB          62           62           63           63           65


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15 and 5/31 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price si large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31                4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31                           



AKV       109         108         109         109         109         

AUL        96           97           97           96           97           

BLT         137         141         144         143         143         

BCV        140         138         140         140         138       

BWV      118         121         121         120         119         

BRV        98           98           97           97           98          

CCV        147         147         150         151         151      

VGF       164         163         161         163         165         

HH          75           76           75           78           76         

OKW      93           93           93           92           94           

POLY      146         146         146         146         146        

SS           101         101         102         102         101       

VB          71           67           67           67           68


----------



## bookwormde

6/1 new contract levels updated on post 1 and are below

These represent the averages from 5/16 to 5/31

Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 199 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)

actuals in (###)

.........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1... ....6/1 .…7/1 8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110) 100(109) 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98) 90(96) 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144) 130(152*) 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143) 135(143) 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120) 110(121) 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96) 85(103) 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155) 136(152) 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163) 165(171) 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77) 68(71) 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104) 84(109) 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136) 130(148*) 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100) 88(103) 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64) 56(66) 52 50 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

With the exception of OKW, BLT and Poly most significant increases were from a single contract at 30%+ above average


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> 6/1 new contract levels updated on post 1 and are below
> 
> These represent the averages from 5/16 to 5/31
> 
> Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 199 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)
> 
> actuals in (###)
> 
> .........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1... ....6/1 .…7/1 8/1 9/1
> 
> AKV 114 110(107) 105(110) 100(109) 96 92 90
> 
> AUL 101 98(97) 95(98) 90(96) 85 82 80
> 
> BLT 150 140(147) 135(144) 130(152*) 128 124 124
> 
> BCV 147 145(150) 140(143) 135(143) 132 130 128
> 
> BWV 126 120(120) 115(120) 110(121) 106 103 100
> 
> BRV 100 95(100) 90(96) 85(103) 80 76 72
> 
> CCV 155 150(150) 142(155) 136(152) 125 125
> 
> VGF 177 172(170) 168(163) 165(171) 162 160 158
> 
> HH 81 78(76) 72(77) 68(71) 65 62 60
> 
> OKW 102 97(101) 90(104) 84(109) 78 72 70
> 
> POLY 148 142(131) 136(136) 130(148*) 125 120 120
> 
> SS 106 100(105) 94(100) 88(103) 85 82 80
> 
> VB 67 64(68) 60(64) 56(66) 52 50 48
> 
> 
> 
> *over 50% less than 100 pts
> 
> With the exception of OKW, BLT and Poly most significant increases were from a single contract at 30%+ above average


I’ve been watching this since the start and what seemed to happen is that a ton of small contracts (100ish pts) sold instantly (eating up availability and keeping average prices the same) while the larger ones are sticking around. New postings for larger contracts (200+ pts) have definitely started decreasing in price, especially this past week.

It will be interesting to watch how this trend continues.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

Bondo9 said:


> I understand your point but I didn’t cancel my trip. They did. That puts the burden of doing the right thing on them. If I had canceled the trip I would expect not a thing in return I now the rules. That’s not the case. They canceled my trip. I agree they are offering till February ie “ that’s when they expire” but that puts the burden of booking a trip in the school year on me and my kids. Since when have you heard of Disney canceling a two week trip. Never is my guess. I am not asking for some far out thing.
> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
> Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.



So what's wrong with the rest of this summer???

I understand disappointment, but you have other options for your points.


----------



## Bing Showei

Bondo9 said:


> So if I don’t get those points for next summers trip *I will be bitter and at every turn I will drain money from Disney at every opportunity. *Ie steak wrong in the slightest I send back. Drink wrong in slightest I send back, I will be that customer who is bitter till I feel no-longer used.
> Call me petty, that’s fine I work hard for my time on vacation and they in affect stole from me and my family so I will return the favor.


I understand your frustration. There are hundreds, if not thousands of members who are affected in ways similar to your situation. Some made out better than others by luck; others by virtue of how they positioned their risk assumptions with how they used their points.

If nothing else, this pandemic should drive home to every owner and prospective owner that unless you bought a guaranteed week, Disney’s timeshare guarantees nothing but the *opportunity* to book your home resort one month before non-home owners. It does not guarantee banking or borrowing (and in fact explicitly reserves the right to suspend these options). It does not guarantee pools, restaurants, gyms, spas, monorails, or any of the theme parks for that matter.

This was an often repeated mantra of those who remind potential buyers that all they are buying is a timeshare, but most dismissed it saying, “if there were no theme park, we’d all have bigger problems.”

Today, even with "bigger problems" (trading my kid's healthy social development with soul-crushing homeschooling anyone?), people will still take issue with their timeshare for things that were never guaranteed to them under the Public Offering Statement that they agreed to when they bought their Disney timeshare.

@Bondo9, come February 28, 2021 you will have had three years to use the points that you are are being asked to use some time the nine months. That's a luxury compared to a lot of other owners. As an owner, you assume ownership risks in exchange for cost savings over time. While you did not choose to shut down the park or cancel your reservation, you did choose to not use your points two years prior (understanding the inherent risks in that). And given your limited ability to travel (summer's only), you essentially booked in the last three months of your use opportunities.

I can see the desire to try to get back at Disney as you outlined above, but that's a lot of cutting off your nose to spite your face, it seems. Also sounds like a pretty unpleasant, and at Disney prices - expensive, way to spend one’s hard earned money and probably much needed vacation time.

At this point, they have you on the hook for Annual Dues for the rest of your contract RTU. Maybe this is a good opportunity to re-evaluate if a Disney timeshare is a good fit for you?


----------



## bookwormde

6/1 new contract levels  and sales data updated on post 1 and are below

These represent the averages from 5/16 to 5/31

Total count of new contracts for the 5 sites is 199 (135 for 4/1 to 4/15)

actuals in (###)

I have added average actual selling price for April from DIS ROFR [] and April for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057

I have added partial numbers for DIS ROFR for May and  the reseller data for May

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April and 6/1 for May: Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ............5/1 ...6/1 …7/1 8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[104]{105} 96 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(152*)[138]{141} 128 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[110]{116} 106 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[139]{147} 125 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[155]{161} 162 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[ND/96} {93} 78 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]66} 52 50 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

With the exception of OKW, BLT and Poly most significant increases were from a single contract at 30%+ above average


----------



## bookwormde

6/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-270% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

DVC resale market reports 0 buybacks in May:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-may-20-report/


----------



## jotunheim

Starport Seven-Five said:


> DVC resale market reports 0 buybacks in May:
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-may-20-report/


Prices overall look to be holding steady on aggregate.  Some up and some down, which is pretty remarkable with ZERO ROFR action and the economic environment.

Anyone notice the huge average price increase on VGC??  $185 in April 2020 and now $214 for May 2020.


----------



## CastAStone

jotunheim said:


> Prices overall look to be holding steady on aggregate.  Some up and some down, which is pretty remarkable with ZERO ROFR action and the economic environment.
> 
> Anyone notice the huge average price increase on VGC??  $185 in April 2020 and now $214 for May 2020.


They only sell 1-2 a month I think usually for VGC; I only tracked 2 contracts on their site in May and they both had all 2019 points banked and all 2020 points.


----------



## glamdring269

RoseGold said:


> I could have flown to Europe and gotten a steak at somewhere much better for what I spent on my last Disney trip.



Ha this is exactly why it is so hard for me to go to WDW sometimes. The cost is immense so I always end up weighing it vs. the other options. It's amazing what experiences you sacrifice to go to WDW (this sacrifice particularly ramps with each subsequent trip).


----------



## jotunheim

CastAStone said:


> They only sell 1-2 a month I think usually for VGC; I only tracked 2 contracts on their site in May and they both had all 2019 points banked and all 2020 points.


I don't think sales of the low single digits per month is all that unusual for them for VGC, but the $29 increase is very much an outlier for the past 12 months.  

Still, 1 month does not make a trend and will be interesting to see where it goes in the next few months.  There is an extremely short supply for any VGC right now anywhere and I am not aware of a _single_ resale contract available at the present time.


----------



## Brianstl

jotunheim said:


> Prices overall look to be holding steady on aggregate.  Some up and some down, which is pretty remarkable with ZERO ROFR action and the economic environment.
> 
> Anyone notice the huge average price increase on VGC??  $185 in April 2020 and now $214 for May 2020.


Their average price they are reporting doesn’t really track with what we have seen in the ROFR thread.  We haven’t even seen a spike in the amount of buys reported.  I know that thread is only a small subset of buyers, but you would think there would be some correlation.


----------



## Lorana

Brianstl said:


> Their average price they are reporting doesn’t really track with what we have seen in the ROFR thread.  We haven’t even seen a spike in the amount of buys reported.  I know that thread is only a small subset of buyers, but you would think there would be some correlation.


The prices they are reporting are the LISTED prices, however.  Not what the contracts actually sold for.


----------



## DougEMG

Brianstl said:


> Their average price they are reporting doesn’t really track with what we have seen in the ROFR thread.  We haven’t even seen a spike in the amount of buys reported.  I know that thread is only a small subset of buyers, but you would think there would be some correlation.



Buyer here tend to more concerned with getting a good deal, so I would bet that the average from the ROFR thread here is lower than what non-Disboard members pay on average.


----------



## CastAStone

Lorana said:


> The prices they are reporting are the LISTED prices, however.  Not what the contracts actually sold for.


I don't think that's right. I've been tracking listed prices as they sell and I have the average listing price at sale for DVC Resale Market higher for May. For example, I have SSR at $102 average listed price at sale, they have average selling price at $98. I have Poly at $143 average listing price at sale, they have it at $140 average selling price. I'm sure I missed some contracts that were listed and sold between 2 checks, but its a pretty consistent pattern.

Also, they say that it's the sale price.


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> I don't think that's right. I've been tracking listed prices as they sell and I have the average listing price at sale for DVC Resale Market higher for May. For example, I have SSR at $102 average listed price at sale, they have average selling price at $98. I have Poly at $143 average listing price at sale, they have it at $140 average selling price. I'm sure I missed some contracts that were listed and sold between 2 checks, but its a pretty consistent pattern.
> 
> Also, they say that it's the sale price.


I would have to research this to know for sure, but I think a higher number of small contract sales are making the average price look higher than it actually is for your typical contract.  It has appeared to me that the volume of small point contracts sold has really picked up over the last few weeks and while these are going for less than they used to they still are selling at a premium compared to other contracts.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Brianstl said:


> I would have to research this to know for sure, but I think a higher number of small contract sales are making the average price look higher than it actually is for your typical contract.  It has appeared to me that the volume of small point contracts sold has really picked up over the last few weeks and while these are going for less than they used to they still are selling at a premium compared to other contracts.


Based on my casual observation, I agree with this.  Larger contracts seem to be sitting around while small contracts move quickly.  However, I will say that the strong sales volume does defy my expectations. I am less sure that prices will continue to slide than I was 3-4 weeks ago.  There is a downward trend in prices over the past year, for sure.  But whether that will continue and accelerate remains to be seen.


----------



## jotunheim

Brianstl said:


> Their average price they are reporting doesn’t really track with what we have seen in the ROFR thread.  We haven’t even seen a spike in the amount of buys reported.  I know that thread is only a small subset of buyers, but you would think there would be some correlation.


I would have far less confidence in the ROFR thread here than the official broker results, though it does not mean it does not have any value.  It is human nature to celebrate the good and downplay the bad.  Anyone that knows they "overpaid" or was on the high end of the spectrum on a resale transaction is not very likely to post it there.  Prime anecdotal evidence is when people tell you how they did pressing their luck at the casino.


----------



## Drewferin

Lorana said:


> The prices they are reporting are the LISTED prices, however.  Not what the contracts actually sold for.


Really?? Thats super misleading


----------



## jotunheim

Drewferin said:


> Really?? Thats super misleading


No, they are actual sales prices.  It states this right in the title.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2020/


----------



## Brianstl

jotunheim said:


> I would have far less confidence in the ROFR thread here than the official broker results, though it does not mean it does not have any value.  It is human nature to celebrate the good and downplay the bad.  Anyone that knows they "overpaid" or was on the high end of the spectrum on a resale transaction is not very likely to post it there.  Prime anecdotal evidence is when people tell you how they did pressing their luck at the casino.


Well you could say that resale brokers have an incentive to manipulate their data, too.  We saw that with a broker on this site last week.  The DVC resale market sadly lacks the same easy to access transparency as the regular real estate market.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> I don't think that's right. I've been tracking listed prices as they sell and I have the average listing price at sale for DVC Resale Market higher for May. For example, I have SSR at $102 average listed price at sale, they have average selling price at $98. I have Poly at $143 average listing price at sale, they have it at $140 average selling price. I'm sure I missed some contracts that were listed and sold between 2 checks, but its a pretty consistent pattern.
> 
> Also, they say that it's the sale price.





jotunheim said:


> No, they are actual sales prices.  It states this right in the title.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-may-2020/


I stand corrected, then.  Though it's honestly hard to know if they are reporting actual sales, since like all brokers, they don't disclose the actual selling price.


----------



## G.C.

In terms of actual prices, until ROFR turns back on, in theory this should be simply a supply and demand driven market.

However, we also know that DVC can be an emotional purchase and we have a few positive demand factors. States are in various stages of reopening, the initial plan to reopen the parks is in place, and the equity markets have recovered far quicker than I, for one, anticipated.  Demand “feels” strong.

I’m starting to wonder if prices have stabilized at worst (or best, depending on your perspective) until/unless these factors like the virus, economy, ROFR move the needle.


----------



## poofyo101

G.C. said:


> In terms of actual prices, until ROFR turns back on, in theory this should be simply a supply and demand driven market.
> 
> However, we also know that DVC can be an emotional purchase and we have a few positive demand factors. States are in various stages of reopening, the initial plan to reopen the parks is in place, and the equity markets have recovered far quicker than I, for one, anticipated.  Demand “feels” strong.
> 
> I’m starting to wonder if prices have stabilized at worst (or best, depending on your perspective) until/unless these factors like the virus, economy, ROFR move the needle.


They have been basically stable the entire time. Some people tend to think that they have gone down. I tend to disagree.


----------



## bookwormde

6/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-240% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Miffy

Just curious, since someone upthread mentioned owners of fixed weeks. What accommodation did Disney make for owners of fixed-week DVC contracts whose fixed weeks occurred during the closure?


----------



## CarolMN

Miffy said:


> Just curious, since someone upthread mentioned owners of fixed weeks. What accommodation did Disney make for owners of fixed-week DVC contracts whose fixed weeks occurred during the closure?


We don't know if there even were any fixed weeks purchased for the closure period.

That said, I don't know why they would treat such a reservation any differently than they did other reservations set to occur during the closure.  So cancel it,  return the points and treat the returned points the same way other points in similar situations were treated.


----------



## Miffy

CarolMN said:


> We don't know if there even were any fixed weeks purchased for the closure period.
> 
> That said, I don't know why they would treat such a reservation any differently than they did other reservations set to occur during the closure.  So cancel it,  return the points and treat the returned points the same way other points in similar situations were treated.


Thanks, @CarolMN. I was especially curious because I've always thought that if I'd buy DVC, I'd buy a fixed week (or two).


----------



## striker1064

Miffy said:


> Thanks, @CarolMN. I was especially curious because I've always thought that if I'd buy DVC, I'd buy a fixed week (or two).



Fixed week owners can choose to cancel their week that year at anytime, and the points would be returned for usual bookings just like any other points.

I can't imagine this closure period was a particularly popular one for fixed weeks, although I guess a runDisney week for Star Wars is possible. But most likely, the week was cancelled and the points were returned. Fixed weeks are always booked with current year points, so owners would still be able to bank as well.


----------



## chalee94

glamdring269 said:


> Ha this is exactly why it is so hard for me to go to WDW sometimes. The cost is immense so I always end up weighing it vs. the other options. It's amazing what experiences you sacrifice to go to WDW (this sacrifice particularly ramps with each subsequent trip).



I have 1 DVC contract and 1 non-DVC timeshare. It's nice to have a little balance. (I recommend visiting Kauai when things settle down a little...  )


----------



## glamdring269

chalee94 said:


> I have 1 DVC contract and 1 non-DVC timeshare. It's nice to have a little balance. (I recommend visiting Kauai when things settle down a little...  )



We've been to Maui several times. Kauai is on the list we just always seem to gravitate to Maui. Need to do a Hawaiian split stay next trip!


----------



## bookwormde

6/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

6/6 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 110-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

6/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-70% of average*

For the week of 6/1 to 6/7 newly posted resale contracts at about 170-190% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> 6/7 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-70% of average*
> 
> For the week of 6/1 to 6/7 newly posted resale contracts at about 170-190% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.



For what it's worth, the number of contracts actively for sale (not pending) on www.DVCResaleMarket.com is up about 10% in the last week. They've been noting their declining inventories for 2 months but it seems to have conclusively turned since they announced park reopenings.


----------



## RoseGold

Whew, a very tempting BLT now up, but I think prices are still going down.


----------



## Galun

I bought two more contracts in late March and posted my rationale here.  Two double to triple banked points SSR contracts at $102, so I estimate the actual cost is low $70s per point (assuming I rent the banked points to Davids at around $15 per point). 

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ices-are-headed.3797236/page-15#post-61747463
The stock market (the nasdaq at least) just made a new all time high today.  I reached out to the broker to inquire about buying more contracts based on the prices I paid in March.  He basically said no way to get that price anymore, trying to set my expectations higher.  Actual prices might be flattening, but there are no more contracts with a lot of banked points, sellers are not desperate enough to not get paid for the value of banked points. 

So that's a datapoint.  I personally think the bottom in DVC price was set a month or two ago.  DVC is a real estate interest.  Sure, it's definitely a luxury item, but it's still a real asset with a strong brand behind it.  By the end of the year the Fed would have printed $3.5 trillion which is about 15% of the US GDP.  With that amount of money being added to circulation, real asset prices have no where to go but up in the long run.  That's why the stock market is approaching and in some cases exceeding all time highs.  Value of DVC, despite some short term volatility, will follow.


----------



## Brianstl

Galun said:


> I bought two more contracts in late March and posted my rationale here.  Two double to triple banked points SSR contracts at $102, so I estimate the actual cost is low $70s per point (assuming I rent the banked points to Davids at around $15 per point).
> 
> https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...ices-are-headed.3797236/page-15#post-61747463
> The stock market (the nasdaq at least) just made a new all time high today.  I reached out to the broker to inquire about buying more contracts based on the prices I paid in March.  He basically said no way to get that price anymore, trying to set my expectations higher.  Actual prices might be flattening, but there are no more contracts with a lot of banked points, sellers are not desperate enough to not get paid for the value of banked points.
> 
> So that's a datapoint.  I personally think the bottom in DVC price was set a month or two ago.  DVC is a real estate interest.  Sure, it's definitely a luxury item, but it's still a real asset with a strong brand behind it.  By the end of the year the Fed would have printed $3.5 trillion which is about 15% of the US GDP.  With that amount of money being added to circulation, real asset prices have no where to go but up in the long run.  That's why the stock market is approaching and in some cases exceeding all time highs.  Value of DVC, despite some short term volatility, will follow.


There is an active double point SSR with an asking price of $105 right now.  My guess is you could get that for less than you paid in late March.


----------



## Galun

Brianstl said:


> There is an active double point SSR with an asking price of $105 right now.  My guess is you could get that for less than you paid in late March.



I saw those.  Mine were almost triple points - i.e. most 2018 banked and full 2019 bankable points, so that's close to an additional $15 in value since I get all those points without paying the maintenance fee.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> For what it's worth, the number of contracts actively for sale (not pending) on www.DVCResaleMarket.com is up about 10% in the last week. They've been noting their declining inventories for 2 months but it seems to have conclusively turned since they announced park reopenings.


about 1/2 of their new listings are significantly above the market and most of those are just sitting there, the ones at or below market are still moving fast.

Fidelity  in June has been adding listing at 4x the rate of April and May


----------



## Bondo9

*Don't buy the Disney magic* is gone after canceling my trip. They than tell me I cannot rebook till after November and only in the school year. That if I don't use those points by February they will be lost. because we banked them for this summers 2 week trip. But they canceled our trip due to covid and I understand that but no leeway in allowing us to use the points next summer which is what we asked they said NO. I will lose those points, even with the fact that will not allow use to rebook in an out of school time and due to availability, So DONT BUY they are thieves.
The magic is gone. They care more about Sales and money. So plan on making sure to get every dollar back ANY way I can.


----------



## Ice Cream Man

CastAStone said:


> For what it's worth, the number of contracts actively for sale (not pending) on www.DVCResaleMarket.com is up about 10% in the last week. They've been noting their declining inventories for 2 months but it seems to have conclusively turned since they announced park reopenings.



In all fairness, www.DVCResaleMarket.com  has one or two heavy hitters with a great deal of invetory that are currently selling, but not many others are listing their contracts.  If you look at the new contracts, you will notice the listing numbers are sequential, most are stripped of 2020 points and listing price has a pattern depending on use year.  Best guess is someone who bought contracts to rent out, is cutting back on invetory or getting out of the game.  I have no doubt this is the case at AKL and BW.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Ice Cream Man said:


> In all fairness, www.DVCResaleMarket.com  has one or two heavy hitters with a great deal of invetory that are currently selling, but not many others are listing their contracts.  If you look at the new contracts, you will notice the listing numbers are sequential, most are stripped of 2020 points and listing price has a pattern depending on use year.  Best guess is someone who bought contracts to rent out, is cutting back on invetory or getting out of the game.  I have no doubt this is the case at AKL and BW.


I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two.  For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners.  Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less. 

There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you.  I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily.  It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it _may actually be.  _It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites.  I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation.  It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it.  I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers.  That contract is still available as of this morning!  I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".


----------



## bookwormde

6/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 190-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Matty B13

MICKIMINI said:


> There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you.  I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily.  It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it _may actually be.  _It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites.  I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation.  It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it.  I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers.  That contract is still available as of this morning!  I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".


I've been watching since 2016 and couldn't agree more with this "relisting" of stale contracts as "new" after a few months.


----------



## Ice Cream Man

MICKIMINI said:


> I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two.  For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners.  Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less.
> 
> There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you.  I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily.  It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it _may actually be.  _It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites.  I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation.  It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it.  I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers.  That contract is still available as of this morning!  I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".



I actually can confirm the theory.  I just talked to a broker and asked if these contracts are all from the same seller, the patterns are just too coincidental.  He did confirm that many are the same seller.  Ultimately, having one large seller sets a price floor on asking price, as other new contracts will probably price their listings accordingly.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Ice Cream Man said:


> In all fairness, www.DVCResaleMarket.com  has one or two heavy hitters with a great deal of invetory that are currently selling, but not many others are listing their contracts.  If you look at the new contracts, you will notice the listing numbers are sequential, most are stripped of 2020 points and listing price has a pattern depending on use year.  Best guess is someone who bought contracts to rent out, is cutting back on invetory or getting out of the game.  I have no doubt this is the case at AKL and BW.



This is also happening at another website--told to me by a broker.  There is a super seller there as well.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Ice Cream Man said:


> I actually can confirm the theory.  I just talked to a broker and asked if these contracts are all from the same seller, the patterns are just too coincidental.  He did confirm that many are the same seller.  Ultimately, having one large seller sets a price floor on asking price, as other new contracts will probably price their listings accordingly.


Thanks for confirming the theory...actually I have heard it from a broker as well and another disboard friend has heard the same thing.  I feel like I know the value of contracts and will just wait until I find one that is worth (in my mind, anyway) what I am paying for it.


----------



## Brianstl

ABE4DISNEY said:


> This is also happening at another website--told to me by a broker.  There is a super seller there as well.


Just like some other sellers, some super sellers will list the same contract on multiple sites.


----------



## becauseimnew

I hope those super sellers soon realize that their striped contracts are overpriced. 

We are still looking to buy, but not a striped contract and not until after Disney has been opened for a few months. We want all this dust to settle.


----------



## linzjane88

Bondo9 said:


> *Don't buy the Disney magic* is gone after canceling my trip. They than tell me I cannot rebook till after November and only in the school year. That if I don't use those points by February they will be lost. because we banked them for this summers 2 week trip. But they canceled our trip due to covid and I understand that but no leeway in allowing us to use the points next summer which is what we asked they said NO. I will lose those points, even with the fact that will not allow use to rebook in an out of school time and due to availability, So DONT BUY they are thieves.
> The magic is gone. They care more about Sales and money. So plan on making sure to get every dollar back ANY way I can.



It's kind of funny you keep posting this on the DVC price thread which is basically full of current owners, perfectly happy with their DVC ownership, and looking to add on more points at a great deal. I don't know that you are going to find what you are looking for here. 

I will say, and it has been said by *many others* who have responded to you already, you can easily rent those points out and turn around and use that money for a trip of your preference. Or, if you are that angry, I know a couple people that would be thrilled with a new and fully loaded contract on the market


----------



## RoseGold

Bondo9 said:


> But they canceled our trip due to covid and I understand that but no leeway in allowing us to use the points next summer which is what we asked they said NO. I will lose those points, even with the fact that will not allow use to rebook in an out of school time and due to availability, So DONT BUY they are thieves.
> The magic is gone. They care more about Sales and money. So plan on making sure to get every dollar back ANY way I can.



The obvious solution is to sell your DVC and spend your vacation dollars elsewhere.  Even the biggest hit is only down 15%.  Some, like SSR/AKL, have held value just fine.  I don't think it's a terrible time to sell (which is why I'm not buying right now).


----------



## lovethesun12

MICKIMINI said:


> I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two.  For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners.  Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less.
> 
> There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you.  I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily.  It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it _may actually be.  _It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites.  I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation.  It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it.  I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers.  That contract is still available as of this morning!  I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".


Are larger contracts (those with 250+ points) generally priced significantly lower than contracts of say 150 pts? I’m noticing now some are but I haven’t followed the market intensely prior to this so not certain about it.

We have made a decision to purchase, but for a larger number of points, even with a serious deal of $20 off per point an already low price it’s just not worth it right now for me to dive in until I’m *certain* I can travel or at the very least rent. I know most think the rental market will rebound (I’m sure it will as well) I’m just not certain *enough* that I could offload 250+ points in 2021 if I need to.

I do think the opinions on how quickly Disney will recover varies largely based on where people live. People living in places where travel is not restricted and can currently go to Disney are more likely to have a positive outlook. It’s hard to say what will happen in the end, but if I end up having to pay a few extra thousand because I waited for things to normalize I’m ok with that.

I can see why the smaller contracts are being eaten up. They’re less risky right now.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Smaller contracts are always less risky.  Anything over 150-180 points IMO can be a liability to sell.  100 or under are the best IMO.  If you are able to purchase 2-3 contracts in the same UY, even with increased closing costs you will be able to sell off more quickly and for a better price if you ever need to.   Sometimes you can purchase a bundle of points (two contracts listed as one) which is a great deal.  Some brokers are willing to contact sellers that have separate listings with them in order to sell as one - just ask.  I've bought two bundles in the past so they do exist.  I had one broker (I won't name) who had no idea what I was talking about...first day?    

Hopefully you are considering an easy to get UY!  Good luck!


----------



## lovethesun12

MICKIMINI said:


> Smaller contracts are always less risky.  Anything over 150-180 points IMO can be a liability to sell.  100 or under are the best IMO.  If you are able to purchase 2-3 contracts in the same UY, even with increased closing costs you will be able to sell off more quickly and for a better price if you ever need to.   Sometimes you can purchase a bundle of points (two contracts listed as one) which is a great deal.  Some brokers are willing to contact sellers that have separate listings with them in order to sell as one - just ask.  I've bought two bundles in the past so they do exist.  I had one broker (I won't name) who had no idea what I was talking about...first day?
> 
> Hopefully you are considering an easy to get UY!  Good luck!


Thanks!!! My preferred use year is December, but I would be okay with February or March as well... even April. So I think I have a lot of variety!

I’ve considered a bunch of small contracts but I’m finding now the pricing is so much better on the larger ones! I might settle for a 200pt and 150pt maybe. Or yes a few 100pt ones if the price comes down ever.

How can you tell if the seller is the same for multiple contracts so you can bundle?


----------



## MICKIMINI

Only the broker can tell you if the same seller owns multiple contracts.  You can often surmise contracts are owned by the same seller often they are listed the same day, have the same UY and sometimes a similar use pattern.  Even going with a 150 and a 200 or some mix is much safer.  You can't sell a portion of your house, but if you own several DVC contracts, you can sell a portion of your vacation property if you need the cash or see a great opportunity to flip!


----------



## deedubb

MICKIMINI said:


> Smaller contracts are always less risky.  Anything over 150-180 points IMO can be a liability to sell.  100 or under are the best IMO.  If you are able to purchase 2-3 contracts in the same UY, even with increased closing costs you will be able to sell off more quickly and for a better price if you ever need to.   Sometimes you can purchase a bundle of points (two contracts listed as one) which is a great deal.  Some brokers are willing to contact sellers that have separate listings with them in order to sell as one - just ask.  I've bought two bundles in the past so they do exist.  I had one broker (I won't name) who had no idea what I was talking about...first day?
> 
> Hopefully you are considering an easy to get UY!  Good luck!



I agree.  Small contracts such as 50 points are usually almost sold instantly and at a premium price.  I have been watching the market lately and have seen some huge ones (eg. 700 points) and wondered how in the world they are ever going to sell it.


----------



## lovethesun12

deedubb said:


> I agree.  Small contracts such as 50 points are usually almost sold instantly and at a premium price.  I have been watching the market lately and have seen some huge ones (eg. 700 points) and wondered how in the world they are ever going to sell it.


So a 250pt Bay Lake Tower contract was posted on Fidelity for $100pp. I asked about it and now it's sold. Could someone please tell me why I'm wrong and it wasn't *that* low? Thanks. It was stripped btw.


----------



## bookwormde

MICKIMINI said:


> Only the broker can tell you if the same seller owns multiple contracts.  You can often surmise contracts are owned by the same seller often they are listed the same day, have the same UY and sometimes a similar use pattern.  Even going with a 150 and a 200 or some mix is much safer.  You can't sell a portion of your house, but if you own several DVC contracts, you can sell a portion of your vacation property if you need the cash or see a great opportunity to flip!


There have been several times in the last few months that 3 to 7 contracts for the same resort, month and size have shown up the same day. I have assumed these were from a single seller.


----------



## MICKIMINI

bookwormde said:


> There have been several times in the last few months that 3 to 7 contracts for the same resort, month and size have shown up the same day. I have assumed these were from a single seller.


What a memory!!!


----------



## bookwormde

MICKIMINI said:


> What a memory!!!


I wish, just comprehensive spreadsheets


----------



## deedubb

lovethesun12 said:


> So a 250pt Bay Lake Tower contract was posted on Fidelity for $100pp. I asked about it and now it's sold. Could someone please tell me why I'm wrong and it wasn't *that* low? Thanks. It was stripped btw.


Stripped or not, that's an insanely low price.  Definitely priced to sell which makes me think they were desperate.


----------



## Kenito

deedubb said:


> Stripped or not, that's an insanely low price.  Definitely priced to sell which makes me think they were desperate.



I get their newsletters and saw that $100 price.  They sent a follow up newsletter a few hours later saying the $100 was a mistake and it was corrected in the newsletter...but it doesn’t look corrected on their website. I don’t remember the actual price but I recall it wasn’t a great deal.


----------



## deedubb

Kenito said:


> I get their newsletters and saw that $100 price.  They sent a follow up newsletter a few hours later saying the $100 was a mistake and it was corrected in the newsletter...but it doesn’t look corrected on their website. I don’t remember the actual price but I recall it wasn’t a great deal.


That makes more sense.  Desperate or not, I can't imagine anyone listing that low unless it was for 1000 points or something.


----------



## lovethesun12

Kenito said:


> I get their newsletters and saw that $100 price.  They sent a follow up newsletter a few hours later saying the $100 was a mistake and it was corrected in the newsletter...but it doesn’t look corrected on their website. I don’t remember the actual price but I recall it wasn’t a great deal.


I think you are discussing a different listing. This was a 100pt contract, that had a list price of $100 and a total price of $13500. There was a follow up email that the price was suppose to be $135.

I wrote an agent about both (the 100pt one a few days ago, the 250pt one today). After I wrote about the first one an email was sent out immediately with a correction. 

I wrote about the 250pt one as well because the points/years were listed 0 2019, 0 2021, 0 2021 rather than 2019, 2020, and 2021. She told me there was no error in the pricing but it was sold.


----------



## Kenito

lovethesun12 said:


> I think you are discussing a different listing. This was a 100pt contract, that had a list price of $100 and a total price of $13500. There was a follow up email that the price was suppose to be $135.
> 
> I wrote an agent about both (the 100pt one a few days ago, the 250pt one today). After I wrote about the first one an email was sent out immediately with a correction.
> 
> I wrote about the 250pt one as well because the points/years were listed 0 2019, 0 2021, 0 2021 rather than 2019, 2020, and 2021. She told me there was no error in the pricing but it was sold.



oops, my bad!


----------



## JoshF

lovethesun12 said:


> Thanks!!! My preferred use year is December, but I would be okay with February or March as well... even April. So I think I have a lot of variety!
> 
> I’ve considered a bunch of small contracts but I’m finding now the pricing is so much better on the larger ones! I might settle for a 200pt and 150pt maybe. Or yes a few 100pt ones if the price comes down ever.
> 
> How can you tell if the seller is the same for multiple contracts so you can bundle?


What makes one use year more valuable than another?  I'm not understanding.


----------



## deedubb

JoshF said:


> What makes one use year more valuable than another?  I'm not understanding.


Some people choose a specific UY depending upon when they like to travel.  It has implications if you suddenly need to cancel your trip.  Some people choose a specific UY because they already have one or more contracts in that UY and they want a matching one so that they have one contract instead of multiple ones, which can make it simpler to keep track of things.


----------



## JoshF

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It is strange.  AKL has 7.4 million points available which is not a small amount but there are very few contracts coming to market.  AKL is the only "bus" resort we would consider so maybe there are a bunch of people thinking the same way?
> 
> For reference:
> 
> ResortTotal Points*Animal Kingdom Villas - Jambo**1,803,844**Animal Kingdom Villas- Kidani**5,595,400**Aulani**11,519,025**Beach Club Villas**3,027,124**Bay Lake Tower**5,732,762**Boardwalk Villas**4,888,837**Boulder Ridge Villas at Wilderness Lodge**1,961,969**Copper Creek Cabin & Villas**3,321,966**Hilton Head Island**1,368,962**Old Key West**7,674,852**Polynesian Villas and Bungalows**4,032,720**Saratoga Springs Resort**13,124,069**Saratoga Springs Resort - Treehouse Villas**905,250**Vero Beach**1,616,438**Villas at Grand Californian**1,136,865**Villas at Grand Floridian**2,520,379*


Where is this data pulled from and what does it represent?


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

JoshF said:


> Where is this data pulled from and what does it represent?


It's the total number of points if you add up all of the contracts Disney has sold.  That table is broke out a bit weird (Jambo/Kidani or Treehouse Villas aren't separate contract categories)... I can't remember the source but it seems like it's published on a few different websites:
https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018
I just thought it was interesting because, for example, there is roughly half as many points in AKL as there are at SSR.  Assuming everyone took similar contract sizes between the two resorts, you would expect twice as many SSR contracts for sale as AKL... but the AKL contracts seem to be much less common than that.


----------



## RoseGold

$100 BLT is still only 1/3 off of the $150 high.  I think it's reasonable for prices to get there.


----------



## Lorana

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It's the total number of points if you add up all of the contracts Disney has sold.  That table is broke out a bit weird (Jambo/Kidani or Treehouse Villas aren't separate contract categories)... I can't remember the source but it seems like it's published on a few different websites:
> https://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-p...ear-distribution-charts-updated-february-2018
> I just thought it was interesting because, for example, there is roughly half as many points in AKL as there are at SSR.  Assuming everyone took similar contract sizes between the two resorts, you would expect twice as many SSR contracts for sale as AKL... but the AKL contracts seem to be much less common than that.


I wonder if a factor of that has to do with the fact that many people (though not all) buy SSR for sleep around points, but people who buy AKL generally do so because they want to own at that resort. The emotional factor could play a part.


----------



## bookwormde

6/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 110-120% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## lovethesun12

RoseGold said:


> $100 BLT is still only 1/3 off of the $150 high.  I think it's reasonable for prices to get there.


The agent did tell me that was the correct pricing and it was sold. 

I would be surprised if the cost of stripped contracts especially don't start to drop (like this one did!) soon. The current restrictions make it less likely people will be able to borrow what they need for a trip so might skip over them (not to mention, people are probably less likely to borrow with the uncertainty of the pandemic).


----------



## MICKIMINI

All of a sudden there are many more loaded contracts "sitting" for days or weeks which IMO will finally devalue those stripped contracts as the loaded become more common.  The market has been bloated with stripped, super owner contracts but I do think the tide is turning...  Several AKL's hit this morning including a little 25 pointer but all are wrong UY for me!


----------



## BWV Dreamin

MICKIMINI said:


> All of a sudden there are many more loaded contracts "sitting" for days or weeks which IMO will finally devalue those stripped contracts as the loaded become more common.  The market has been bloated with stripped, super owner contracts but I do think the tide is turning...  Several AKL's hit this morning including a little 25 pointer but all are wrong UY for me!


I feel in this current Covid situation, that banked or even current points are not an advantage in the resale pricing. Reservations are or will become harder to get due to the cancellations made by Disney. Will be harder to book or rent those points IMO. So dont drive up the price because of this. The tide has turned....


----------



## lovethesun12

BWV Dreamin said:


> I feel in this current Covid situation, that banked or even current points are not an advantage in the resale pricing. Reservations are or will become harder to get due to the cancellations made by Disney. Will be harder to book or rent those points IMO. So dont drive up the price because of this. The tide has turned....


I’ve passed over many banked contracts because if points have to be used by Dec/Feb/March by the time it closes I’d still have to find a renter and can’t guarantee that so it’s not worth the risk (again, not saying people who have contracts won’t be able to do that, just that’s it’s not worth the risk for me even if it seems likely to someone else they could rent).

I feel like the rental market is going to shift to people being less likely to book in advance (unless maybe they have a direct agreement with an owner with points that can be banked/rescheduled),  and more likely to book last minute for a quick deal.


----------



## disneykim17

MickiMini, under which resale site did you see the AKL 25 pointer?


----------



## becauseimnew

disneykim17 said:


> MickiMini, under which resale site did you see the AKL 25 pointer?


I saw one on fidelity February UY


----------



## disneykim17

Thank you becauseimnew and welcome.  We are looking for 75-80 points at AKL September UY as an add-on.  Since everything has been shut down, what are the chances that Direct Sales would lower their prices?  Is it possible to get a resale under $100 pp for what I'm looking for?


----------



## bookwormde

disneykim17 said:


> Thank you becauseimnew and welcome.  We are looking for 75-80 points at AKL September UY as an add-on.  Since everything has been shut down, what are the chances that Direct Sales would lower their prices?  Is it possible to get a resale under $100 pp for what I'm looking for?


incentives on sold out resorts are uncommon so I would not expect much on the direct side.

I think with some work and patience 75 to 80 at $100 should be doable, though September can be more challenging than some other months


----------



## becauseimnew

disneykim17 said:


> Thank you becauseimnew and welcome.  We are looking for 75-80 points at AKL September UY as an add-on.  Since everything has been shut down, what are the chances that Direct Sales would lower their prices?  Is it possible to get a resale under $100 pp for what I'm looking for?


Lots of us are hoping for some good Direct Sales incentives, my husband wants to go the Direct sale route. I haven't seen any small AKL contracts under $100, sellers are listing all those for closer to $115.  We are on the market for a April or October 75pt contract but the only ones I've seen a few months ago were listed at $110 and listing prices have been going up since then.


----------



## becauseimnew

bookwormde said:


> incentives on sold out resorts are uncommon so I would not expect much on the direct side.
> 
> I think with some work and patience 75 to 80 at $100 should be doable, though September can be more challenging than some other months


Is AKL sold out?


----------



## CastAStone

becauseimnew said:


> Is AKL sold out?


Yes. However Disney will have points available; it is not a resort that runs a waitlist.


----------



## MICKIMINI

disneykim17 said:


> MickiMini, under which resale site did you see the AKL 25 pointer?



Fidelity


----------



## TinkB278

I just saw the latest $125/point for $100 point contract at AKV. No large number of banked points or anything. I just feel like this reseller really is trying to inflate the prices and what these are actually worth.


----------



## becauseimnew

TinkB278 said:


> I just saw the latest $125/point for $100 point contract at AKV. No large number of banked points or anything. I just feel like this reseller really is trying to inflate the prices and what these are actually worth.


That's just crazy, I bet that contract will sit there for a long time.


----------



## BWV Dreamin

bookwormde said:


> incentives on sold out resorts are uncommon so I would not expect much on the direct side.
> 
> I think with some work and patience 75 to 80 at $100 should be doable, though September can be more challenging than some other months


Why is September UY more challenging? I happen to own a September UY.


----------



## CastAStone

BWV Dreamin said:


> Why is September UY more challenging? I happen to own a September UY.


Depending on the resort, its often the least or one of the least common Use Years, and can be a small percentage of total contracts (again, depending on the property).


----------



## Lorana

BWV Dreamin said:


> Why is September UY more challenging? I happen to own a September UY.


September is the least popular UY across all of DVC.  It's not the least popular in every resort, but it is always among the bottom 3.  So it just means that there are less contracts out there for that UY.


----------



## DougEMG

Lorana said:


> September is the least popular UY across all of DVC.  It's not the least popular in every resort, but it is always among the bottom 3.  So it just means that there are less contracts out there for that UY.



I didn't know that.  I personally love Sept UY as it is perfect for those fall and winter trips.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

becauseimnew said:


> Lots of us are hoping for some good Direct Sales incentives, my husband wants to go the Direct sale route. I haven't seen any small AKL contracts under $100, sellers are listing all those for closer to $115.  We are on the market for a April or October 75pt contract but the only ones I've seen a few months ago were listed at $110 and listing prices have been going up since then.



I am a firm believer in small contracts often being worth the direct price.  Especially now that there are new resorts coming into play with new rules for access. 

My personal threshold is $50 per point.  If it's not at least $50 pp less, I'm not at all interested.


----------



## disneykim17

The two contracts we have were direct purchases, however, the direct cost now is more than we want to spend so we are looking towards resale for second add-on.  Currently AKL direct is $186 pp and on resale I've seen it as low as $105.  We can get 25 points more going resale than direct.


----------



## Mnymkr11

So what happens if I buy a small contract for AKL direct to add onto my 220pt resale contract? Am I only allowed to use the direct points for new resorts? (Riviera, reflections)


----------



## Lorana

Mnymkr11 said:


> So what happens if I buy a small contract for AKL direct to add onto my 220pt resale contract? Am I only allowed to use the direct points for new resorts? (Riviera, reflections)


Yes, only your direct points can be used at new resorts, but all points can be used at AKL at 11 months and at all of the 14 original resorts at 7 months.


----------



## heynowirv

MICKIMINI said:


> I've expressed this thought several times (not so eloquently LOL) in the past month or two.  For the most part, contracts that have a more normal pattern of usage over 19/20/21 seem to be owned by regular people not super owners.  Also note that these stripped contracts get stale, seem to disappear after being reduced in price and then reappear as "new" for a few dollars less.
> 
> There is no way to confirm this observation, but I totally agree with you.  I've been involved in DVC since 1996 and watch the market daily.  It makes the market IMO appear more active and valuable than it _may actually be.  _It is like a needle in a haystack trying to pick out any fair deals on some websites.  I have been trying to buy an AKL contract for over a month without luck in negotiation.  It is pretty much a couple dollars off take it or leave it.  I bid on one contract and was immediately told it was now a bidding war with a short time limit for high offers.  That contract is still available as of this morning!  I am stalking websites daily, but will continue to walk if I can not negotiate a fair market offer or am pushed into a "bidding war".


Yep one of my rules is :We have a few offers that are very competitive,What is your best offer"? That's my que to walk away.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Lorana said:


> I wonder if a factor of that has to do with the fact that many people (though not all) buy SSR for sleep around points, but people who buy AKL generally do so because they want to own at that resort. The emotional factor could play a part.


I think it's a combination of that and people who rent out points holding a lot of "cheaper" resorts like SSR.  Your average owner that likes their home resort probably hasn't needed to sell yet (thankfully) so they're holding on.



4luv2cdisney said:


> I am a firm believer in small contracts often being worth the direct price.  Especially now that there are new resorts coming into play with new rules for access.
> 
> My personal threshold is $50 per point.  If it's not at least $50 pp less, I'm not at all interested.


100 points is the minimum though right?  I know that's on the smaller end of what people buy but you're still talking about a 5k delta.  I dunno, seems like a lot of money for relatively small differences.


----------



## lovethesun12

Lorana said:


> I wonder if a factor of that has to do with the fact that many people (though not all) buy SSR for sleep around points, but people who buy AKL generally do so because they want to own at that resort. The emotional factor could play a part.


This makes sense. I think if AKL was next to a park (walking distance) the price of a contract there would be sky high. It really is a beautiful resort and the dining is amazing. Our stay at AKL was pretty much the best decision I ever made since it was definitely the one that made DH love Disney. You just can't beat a glass of wine in the evening with that view. Even the standard and value rooms can have great views.

I have loved every Disney resort I've stayed at though, from POP to Beach Club. But there really is something to the memories of your kids seeing giraffes in the evening and the heavily themed play areas.

Side note: I think I just talked myself out of buying the other resorts I was considering and into AKL


----------



## Lorana

lovethesun12 said:


> This makes sense. I think if AKL was next to a park (walking distance) the price of a contract there would be sky high. It really is a beautiful resort and the dining is amazing. Our stay at AKL was pretty much the best decision I ever made since it was definitely the one that made DH love Disney. You just can't beat a glass of wine in the evening with that view. Even the standard and value rooms can have great views.
> 
> I have loved every Disney resort I've stayed at though, from POP to Beach Club. But there really is something to the memories of your kids seeing giraffes in the evening and the heavily themed play areas.
> 
> Side note: I think I just talked myself out of buying the other resorts I was considering and into AKL


This is really why we also had to own at AKL, too (though we do also own at BRV).  Sitting on the balcony watching the animals just can't be beat, and we have so many found memories of when we've stayed there when our kids are little that we want to continue that with them and hopefully someday with our grandkids (should our kids chose to have children).  

There really isn't a Disney resort I haven't enjoyed - but some really hold a special place in our hearts and that's why we own at those resorts.  If we have the option to stay elsewhere during some points, bonus!  But if we are stuck at AKL all the time?  We will always be happy.


----------



## lovethesun12

Lorana said:


> This is really why we also had to own at AKL, too (though we do also own at BRV).  Sitting on the balcony watching the animals just can't be beat, and we have so many found memories of when we've stayed there when our kids are little that we want to continue that with them and hopefully someday with our grandkids (should our kids chose to have children).
> 
> There really isn't a Disney resort I haven't enjoyed - but some really hold a special place in our hearts and that's why we own at those resorts.  If we have the option to stay elsewhere during some points, bonus!  But if we are stuck at AKL all the time?  We will always be happy.


Since we seem to think alike, I guess I should stay away from BRV, so things don't get too expensive for me, lol.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

DougEMG said:


> I didn't know that.  I personally love Sept UY as it is perfect for those fall and winter trips.


We like September too.  But I can see why it would be less popular when many people travel between May and August (past banking window).


----------



## Lorana

lovethesun12 said:


> Since we seem to think alike, I guess I should stay away from BRV, so things don't get too expensive for me, lol.


That's what ADD-ONS are for!  ;-)  Also, you can usually get pretty good resale prices for BRV.  ;-)

The chief design architect of the Animal Kingdom Lodge (Peter Dominick) was ALSO the chief design architect for the Wilderness Lodge and the Grand Californian.  There's definite similar thematic elements between the two.  Wilderness Lodge is of course the original, and based on the grand lodges of the national parks; it's central fireplace and bubbling creek that become the pool is just amazing.

It doesn't have animals, and it admittedly has lost a lot of its original forest due to the CCV expansion, but WL/BRV is smaller, more intimate, and evokes that true "glamping" feel and experience.  The boat ride to and from the Magic Kingdom is right up there for me with watching the animals from the balcony (though the animals do win!), as there's just something so beautiful about taking that boat ride across.  It's especially great in early morning sunrise, end of day sunset, or after dark when the Electrical Water Pageant is on display.  

WL/BRV was our first love, but when AKL was built, I confess, we just couldn't decide which one we loved more.  Okay, DH says that the WL wins by a hair for him; for me, it's AKL -- but that's because I'm an early riser and my DH and boys are not, so that morning time on the balcony waiting till I can wake everyone is heavenly.

If we can ever find a reasonable GCV contract in our UY, we'll have completed the trifecta!


----------



## becauseimnew

I’m loving all the BRV & AKL discussion, DH would prefer to buy BRV but I would rather buy AKL, for basically the same resale price we get a longer contract at AKL. And I think it’s less points to stay at AKL?


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

Starport Seven-Five said:


> 100 points is the minimum though right?  I know that's on the smaller end of what people buy but you're still talking about a 5k delta.  I dunno, seems like a lot of money for relatively small differences.



100 points is the minimum direct holding for a blue card.  Existing members can purchase as few as 25 points direct at most resorts, and even non-members can buy 50 points direct at many resorts.

If you are looking for a small contract (especially under 100 points) people tend to want a lot more money per point.  It does seem to get a little more reasonable at 100 points.

Right now, admittedly, things are a bit different.  I can't even buy direct, resale is on the low side, and renting points isn't a given,  but usually my comparison looks something like this:

I have made offers on 50 ish point SSR contracts.  Here's an example of one:

$115 firm, Oct UY, no 2019 or 2020 points. Estimated closing $450, no 2019 or 2020 dues for me.
$6,200

$165 Direct, Oct UY (full 2019, 2020 points) Estimated closing $350, 2020 dues ~ $140 buying Aug. 1
$8,740
(175) back on my Dis Visa
(1500) ish in rentable or (in my case) usable points (I actually need the points or I'll need to rent.  $1500 is low for the 100 points I'm missing)
________
$7,065

So, maybe for some people $865 is still worth buying resale.  For me, it is not - even though I already have a blue card.  

First of all, $865 for 34 years worth of points will add about $.50 / pt over the lifetime of the contract.  So, every time I use those 50 points for a reservation, it's costing me $25 more than resale.  I'm simply not going to stress over that.

I'm already interested in staying at Reflections, but I'm pretty sure the point charts are going to be high and I'll need more direct points to stay there.  Also, there will be more than Reflections that I may be interested in.  Not to mention come 2042, they may resell BWV/BCV and I am definitely interested in those but I'll be old and maybe not willing to buy back in (let's get real, I will).

If you're still with me, let's talk about the 100 points for blue card benefits.

I'm entirely too lazy to go back over all the nitty gritty, so let's just go with a $5K premium....

As a family of 4, we saved $3K on 2 sets of APs in 3 years, and immediately attended 1 moonlight magic event which I value at about $125 / ticket (as I'm someone who buys special event tickets). Then various misc. discounts...

So, yes, at less than $2K difference....I'd still do it.  No question.

In my case, I bought in with an initial cost of $9900 for 60 points.  My 60 points resale would have needed to be $100 or less per point for me to come out ahead in the short term.  I hope my blue card will continue to save me $$$ over the years.  If not, no big deal.  I'm already all good.

I could also add some stuff to my reasoning.... mostly having to do with the ages of my kids and future plans, but I'll spare you for tonight!  lol


----------



## CastAStone

becauseimnew said:


> I’m loving all the BRV & AKL discussion, DH would prefer to buy BRV but I would rather buy AKL, for basically the same resale price we get a longer contract at AKL. And I think it’s less points to stay at AKL?


A BRV room is *roughly* the same points as a savannah room at AKV. The Savannah view can be a point or three more depending on the size and season. The Value and Standard view rooms at AKL are much cheaper.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

CastAStone said:


> A BRV room is *roughly* the same points as a savannah room at AKV. The Savannah view can be a point or three more depending on the size and season. The Value and Standard view rooms at AKL are much cheaper.


AKV value rooms are a steal for staying onsite at Disney.  Standard view really is too.  I think there's a lot of people that don't realize what a bargain AKV is point wise and standard view at Kidani and often Jambo doesn't require having the fastest computer at 8am at 11 months.  Throw in some giraffe outside your room with savannah view and it is a pretty incredible resort both to stay at and to own at.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

becauseimnew said:


> Is AKL sold out?



Sold out in DVC terms mostly means they are not actively marketing it and that they do not offer incentives for points at that resort anymore.   Riviera and Aulani are the only active sales right now with CCV being a new quasi "sold out" in that it was given the big pricing increase that also comes with the term sold out.   DVC sells points to every single resort.  Some are easier to purchase and others such as VGC and BCV are quite difficult but they do sell points to them.  And at a high price.


----------



## MICKIMINI

becauseimnew said:


> I’m loving all the BRV & AKL discussion, DH would prefer to buy BRV but I would rather buy AKL, for basically the same resale price we get a longer contract at AKL. And I think it’s less points to stay at AKL?


I'm thinking you guys need to buy one of EACH!  You can alternate years and everyone is happy!


----------



## bookwormde

6/10 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 250-270% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## BWV Dreamin

KAT4DISNEY said:


> Sold out in DVC terms mostly means they are not actively marketing it and that they do not offer incentives for points at that resort anymore.   Riviera and Aulani are the only active sales right now with CCV being a new quasi "sold out" in that it was given the big pricing increase that also comes with the term sold out.   DVC sells points to every single resort.  Some are easier to purchase and others such as VGC and BCV are quite difficult but they do sell points to them.  And at a high price.


Quasi sold out....love it! LOL.....


----------



## bookwormde

once resorts are "sold out" DVD has to acquire points through ROFR or repossession to be able to sell them direct


----------



## becauseimnew

4luv2cdisney said:


> 100 points is the minimum direct holding for a blue card.  Existing members can purchase as few as 25 points direct at most resorts, and even non-members can buy 50 points direct at many resorts.
> 
> If you are looking for a small contract (especially under 100 points) people tend to want a lot more money per point.  It does seem to get a little more reasonable at 100 points.
> 
> Right now, admittedly, things are a bit different.  I can't even buy direct, resale is on the low side, and renting points isn't a given,  but usually my comparison looks something like this:
> 
> I have made offers on 50 ish point SSR contracts.  Here's an example of one:
> 
> $115 firm, Oct UY, no 2019 or 2020 points. Estimated closing $450, no 2019 or 2020 dues for me.
> $6,200
> 
> $165 Direct, Oct UY (full 2019, 2020 points) Estimated closing $350, 2020 dues ~ $140 buying Aug. 1
> $8,740
> (175) back on my Dis Visa
> (1500) ish in rentable or (in my case) usable points (I actually need the points or I'll need to rent.  $1500 is low for the 100 points I'm missing)
> ________
> $7,065
> 
> So, maybe for some people $865 is still worth buying resale.  For me, it is not - even though I already have a blue card.
> 
> First of all, $865 for 34 years worth of points will add about $.50 / pt over the lifetime of the contract.  So, every time I use those 50 points for a reservation, it's costing me $25 more than resale.  I'm simply not going to stress over that.
> 
> I'm already interested in staying at Reflections, but I'm pretty sure the point charts are going to be high and I'll need more direct points to stay there.  Also, there will be more than Reflections that I may be interested in.  Not to mention come 2042, they may resell BWV/BCV and I am definitely interested in those but I'll be old and maybe not willing to buy back in (let's get real, I will).
> 
> If you're still with me, let's talk about the 100 points for blue card benefits.
> 
> I'm entirely too lazy to go back over all the nitty gritty, so let's just go with a $5K premium....
> 
> As a family of 4, we saved $3K on 2 sets of APs in 3 years, and immediately attended 1 moonlight magic event which I value at about $125 / ticket (as I'm someone who buys special event tickets). Then various misc. discounts...
> 
> So, yes, at less than $2K difference....I'd still do it.  No question.
> 
> In my case, I bought in with an initial cost of $9900 for 60 points.  My 60 points resale would have needed to be $100 or less per point for me to come out ahead in the short term.  I hope my blue card will continue to save me $$$ over the years.  If not, no big deal.  I'm already all good.
> 
> I could also add some stuff to my reasoning.... mostly having to do with the ages of my kids and future plans, but I'll spare you for tonight!  lol


Thanks for this overview, makes great sense. There is a BWV 50 pt contract, 1 pt coming this year and the asking price is $175  I would be best just to purchase direct at that price.


----------



## becauseimnew

bookwormde said:


> once resorts are "sold out" DVD has to acquire points through ROFR or repossession to be able to sell them direct


Thanks for the explanation.


----------



## CastAStone

becauseimnew said:


> Thanks for this overview, makes great sense. There is a BWV 50 pt contract, 1 pt coming this year and the asking price is $175  I would be best just to purchase direct at that price.


It would 100% be best to purchase direct at that price. That price is just silly.


----------



## lovethesun12

MICKIMINI said:


> I'm thinking you guys need to buy one of EACH!  You can alternate years and everyone is happy!


Hrm so with the borrowing restrictions over two years I’ll guess I’ll have to make sure I have double the points too, just in case


----------



## heynowirv

becauseimnew said:


> Thanks for this overview, makes great sense. There is a BWV 50 pt contract, 1 pt coming this year and the asking price is $175  I would be best just to purchase direct at that price.


Does it matter to you? I've been eyeing a 100 point contract for a lot less than that. Aug uy if interested Pm me


----------



## TinkB278

Another 100 point AKV contract for $125/pt....


----------



## glamdring269

TinkB278 said:


> Another 100 point AKV contract for $125/pt....



That's one I should lowball just to see if they counter with $124.


----------



## TinkB278

glamdring269 said:


> That's one I should lowball just to see if they counter with $124.


Maybe I’m crazy but the price seems insane for AKV


----------



## becauseimnew

TinkB278 said:


> Another 100 point AKV contract for $125/pt....


There is another AKV, 100PT, FEB with all points including 2019 listed for $116 on another site. I hope people are doing their research.


----------



## G.C.

becauseimnew said:


> There is another AKV, 100PT, FEB with all points including 2019 listed for $116 on another site. I hope people are doing their research.


Is there any rhyme or reason why prices vary so much even among the reputable brokers?


----------



## CastAStone

As a seller, do you want the most money it to sell the fastest? What broker you list with may depend in part on your answer to that question.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

G.C. said:


> Is there any rhyme or reason why prices vary so much even among the reputable brokers?



I had heard that Fidelity gets the contracts from "distressed" sellers.  Somehow Disney refers them or something.  I don't know if that's still true but for a long time Fidelity had considerably lower priced contracts, so it seemed to make sense.  I haven't noticed as much of a difference lately. However, I'm only looking at small contracts for specific resort and UY, so, I'm not studying across the board pricing.


----------



## hlhlaw07

G.C. said:


> Is there any rhyme or reason why prices vary so much even among the reputable brokers?


It’s because the brokers don’t actually set the prices. They can make a recommendation but ultimately the seller decides the price they are going to list at. If you talk to some of the brokers regarding the clearly overpriced contracts, they will tell you the price is unrealistic but the seller is unwilling to move. Not to stick up for the brokers too much, but most of the unrealistic prices right now are because sellers refuse to accept the market turned and will no longer command the crazy prices of just a few months ago.


----------



## MBTigger

This thread is making me happy I recently signed an offer on SSR instead of AKV....


----------



## bookwormde

6/11 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200-220% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> 6/11 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200-220% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


I feel like I must be missing a few major sites or something because I'm not seeing these new contracts, lol. I guess they must be mostly in resorts I'm not interested in.


----------



## pinkxray

OMG to these new AKL listings. I haven’t been stalking prices since I bought SSR last week. I saw the first $125 listing but now there are multiple $125 listings and now even larger contracts are getting $118. That is nuts! 
I guess if I was an owner at AKL who was thinking of selling and watching them sell quick at the listed price I would try my luck with the higher price for a month or so but wow, that stinks as a buyer. 
Guess I’ll hold off to buy direct in the fall.


----------



## bookwormde

pinkxray said:


> OMG to these new AKL listings. I haven’t been stalking prices since I bought SSR last week. I saw the first $125 listing but now there are multiple $125 listings and now even larger contracts are getting $118. That is nuts!
> I guess if I was an owner at AKL who was thinking of selling and watching them sell quick at the listed price I would try my luck with the higher price for a month or so but wow, that stinks as a buyer.
> Guess I’ll hold off to buy direct in the fall.


The one large site that  has the prices at $10 above the other sites has a pricing tool that provides those higher recommendations (118 to 120 for a point neutral medium size contract)


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> The one large site that  has the prices at $10 above the other sites has a pricing tool that provides those higher recommendations (118 to 120 for a point neutral medium size contract)


That same large site and others as well send notifications/email that a listing was reduced, when it hasn't been. It's so annoying. I keep track in a spread sheet for various listings that are of interest to me and this has happened multiple times now.


----------



## disneykim17

Do you look at all resale sites or just one, and which ones do you prefer and trust?  I ask because this is the first time we are looking to purchase a resale as our current contracts were direct buys.


----------



## chicagoshannon

Those AKL contracts are nuts!  I got 100 pt contract 1  year ago for $100 per pt.  I should sell it and buy SSR!


----------



## MrWonderful

I became very annoyed at one of the very large brokers...  inflated prices from mega-sellers at 15 to 20 over fair value and unwilling to negotiate,, I believe basically trying to artificially support the market during this in-ordinary time... I quickly caught on and moved along.  I don't know if I am allowed to post who I purchased from, but it was a smaller broker and I had a very smooth professional experience.


----------



## TinkB278

I know $125 a point is still significantly less than what direct DVC is going for, but at $125 a point I’d almost rather just buy Riviera direct, get all the perks and an extra 13 years. I just think the prices for AKV on that site are insane right now and I’m surprised anyone is paying it


----------



## Goddard Family Adventures

Weird question on my line of thinking and maybe this can help people out.  We bought a Animal Kingdom 155 point contract that has 310 points loaded up right now and another 155 coming in Feb.  We paid $110 per point.  We plan on renting/transferring 155 points and banking the other 155.  So that will get us about $2300 back.  So doing it this way we really paid about 95 a point if we are able to rent/transfer.  Is my line of thinking correct?  If it is, maybe look for a front loaded contract and follow that method to bring the cost down.  LOL!


----------



## MICKIMINI

MrWonderful said:


> I became very annoyed at one of the very large brokers...  inflated prices from mega-sellers at 15 to 20 over fair value and unwilling to negotiate,, I believe basically trying to artificially support the market during this in-ordinary time... I quickly caught on and moved along.  I don't know if I am allowed to post who I purchased from, but it was a smaller broker and I had a very smooth professional experience.


Thank you for pointing this out.  This issue is being brought up again and again on this thread and though the folks here are aware of this pattern of listings, likely 99% of resale buyers aren't here with us in this discussion.  The only thing you can do is wait and watch until sanity returns. 

I actually really like the broker you are referring too, but have two contracts I attempted to buy, one was listed at the wrong price and no, I wasn't going to pay $13 more than the posted price.  The second, being asked to rebid on a contract due to multiple bidders, seriously?  Liking the broker does not mean I'm willing to pay thousands more to work with them!  

There are a couple smaller brokers that seem to have lower prices.  I also see a pattern of prices going lower at the smaller brokers as well, with new contracts $5-10 lower than similar ones UA.  They are there on various websites for all to see.  My checkbook meanwhile, sits in the drawer until I can make a fair deal.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Goddard Family Adventures said:


> Weird question on my line of thinking and maybe this can help people out.  We bought a Animal Kingdom 155 point contract that has 310 points loaded up right now and another 155 coming in Feb.  We paid $110 per point.  We plan on renting/transferring 155 points and banking the other 155.  So that will get us about $2300 back.  So doing it this way we really paid about 95 a point if we are able to rent/transfer.  Is my line of thinking correct?  If it is, maybe look for a front loaded contract and follow that method to bring the cost down.  LOL!


This is how I have bought in the past and it has been a valid plan...now with the rental market rather sketchy, I'm not so sure it will work for me.  We plan on "spending" additional points ourselves or gifting.  The only way I will rent is with someone I know personally who I can work out a deal with an exit ramp in case of another disaster.  Tread carefully and good luck!


----------



## Goddard Family Adventures

MICKIMINI said:


> This is how I have bought in the past and it has been a valid plan...now with the rental market rather sketchy, I'm not so sure it will work for me.  We plan on "spending" additional points ourselves or gifting.  The only way I will rent is with someone I know personally who I can work out a deal with an exit ramp in case of another disaster.  Tread carefully and good luck!



Thanks!  Would it be fair to say a transfer would be the better option?


----------



## JETSDAD

Goddard Family Adventures said:


> Thanks!  Would it be fair to say a transfer would be the better option?


From what you previously posted the 155 that you want to rent or transfer appear to have been banked.  Banked points can't be transferred though a transfer is generally a nice way to go if you have another owner wanting a transfer for the entire amount.

I'm not as negative on the rental market as some people here as there are still plenty of rentals going on.  The only real reduction I am seeing for rental price is on trip/points in the short term as there is a lot of competition with people trying to rent out their confirmed reservation or points that are expiring soon.


----------



## Lorana

TinkB278 said:


> Maybe I’m crazy but the price seems insane for AKV


It is.  I bought a loaded 50 point AKV contract back in January for $120/point, which I thought was high at the time (I bought a 120-point contract for $104 in December), but it was 50 points.


MrWonderful said:


> I became very annoyed at one of the very large brokers...  inflated prices from mega-sellers at 15 to 20 over fair value and unwilling to negotiate,, I believe basically trying to artificially support the market during this in-ordinary time... I quickly caught on and moved along.  I don't know if I am allowed to post who I purchased from, but it was a smaller broker and I had a very smooth professional experience.


If you post the link to the broker, it will ***** out if you're not allowed to mention them, so please feel free to mention them.  I for one am curious who you have bought with.


----------



## MICKIMINI

I have never done a transfer since buying in 1996!  I believe you can do one a year (UY or calendar?)  You have to find another DVC owner who is willing to take the transfer and pay you.  There are threads on disboards regarding transfers.  There is a rental thread on disboards though I have never used it.  

I have lots of friends with young grandkids who want to travel in the next few years and have already inquired...with covid19 I've put the brakes on any new rentals until things settle down.  I have two remaining rentals with David's (Oct and Jan) and I'm just holding my breath that they go through and I get paid.  Not going down that road again!


----------



## disneykim17

MrWonderful said:


> I became very annoyed at one of the very large brokers...  inflated prices from mega-sellers at 15 to 20 over fair value and unwilling to negotiate,, I believe basically trying to artificially support the market during this in-ordinary time... I quickly caught on and moved along.  I don't know if I am allowed to post who I purchased from, but it was a smaller broker and I had a very smooth professional experience.


Please PM and I'm curious who you've used and who you wouldn't recommend.


----------



## Goddard Family Adventures

JETSDAD said:


> From what you previously posted the 155 that you want to rent or transfer appear to have been banked.  Banked points can't be transferred though a transfer is generally a nice way to go if you have another owner wanting a transfer for the entire amount.
> 
> I'm not as negative on the rental market as some people here as there are still plenty of rentals going on.  The only real reduction I am seeing for rental price is on trip/points in the short term as there is a lot of competition with people trying to rent out their confirmed reservation or points that are expiring soon.



Thank you for the information and your reply!


----------



## Goddard Family Adventures

MICKIMINI said:


> I have never done a transfer since buying in 1996!  I believe you can do one a year (UY or calendar?)  You have to find another DVC owner who is willing to take the transfer and pay you.  There are threads on disboards regarding transfers.  There is a rental thread on disboards though I have never used it.
> 
> I have lots of friends with young grandkids who want to travel in the next few years and have already inquired...with covid19 I've put the brakes on any new rentals until things settle down.  I have two remaining rentals with David's (Oct and Jan) and I'm just holding my breath that they go through and I get paid.  Not going down that road again!



We might actually end up using our points are trying to go to Hilton Head or Vero.  The bad thing is we are still in our ROFR period.  So it's going to be a while and when it goes through, we won't have a lot of time to make a decision.  We aren't worried about traveling though.  I'm impatient to begin with and this wait has been rough.  Tuesday will be 30 days and everything I'm seeing says to tack on another 10.


----------



## MrWonderful

Lorana said:


> If you post the link to the broker, it will ***** out if you're not allowed to mention them, so please feel free to mention them.  I for one am curious who you have bought with.



We purchased thru https://www.*************.com/ 

All in all very professional and prompt. Of course, I may have just stumbled into a super responsive seller... but it all went very quick and pleasant.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Goddard Family Adventures said:


> We might actually end up using our points are trying to go to Hilton Head or Vero.  The bad thing is we are still in our ROFR period.  So it's going to be a while and when it goes through, we won't have a lot of time to make a decision.  We aren't worried about traveling though.  I'm impatient to begin with and this wait has been rough.  Tuesday will be 30 days and everything I'm seeing says to tack on another 10.


Those are both low-key, enjoyable resorts and hopefully you will get a reservation at one or the other.  Don't forget, you can "rent" up to 24 points directly from MS for $19 PP (I haven't done that either - geez) if you need to round up a bit.  Food options are limited, so hopefully you will have a one bed or larger and a kitchen!


----------



## heynowirv

MrWonderful said:


> I became very annoyed at one of the very large brokers...  inflated prices from mega-sellers at 15 to 20 over fair value and unwilling to negotiate,, I believe basically trying to artificially support the market during this in-ordinary time... I quickly caught on and moved along.  I don't know if I am allowed to post who I purchased from, but it was a smaller broker and I had a very smooth professional experience.


If anyone is interested you can ask them to PM you for the info.


----------



## heynowirv

MrWonderful said:


> We purchased thru https://www.*************.com/
> 
> All in all very professional and prompt. Of course, I may have just stumbled into a super responsive seller... but it all went very quick and pleasant.


I think you did because I was looking at a 100 point BWV Aug Uy and was told that was the price and the owner didn't care if they sold it or not.


----------



## Brianstl

heynowirv said:


> I think you did because I was looking at a 100 point BWV Aug Uy and was told that was the price and the owner didn't care if they sold it or not.


That is when you need to remind the broker they are required to submit your offer to the seller.


----------



## heynowirv

Brianstl said:


> That is when you need to remind the broker they are required to submit your offer to the seller.


They do (or so he says he does) I found a betterl 150 point deal elsewhere although we weren't looking for that many points.


----------



## JETSDAD

Brianstl said:


> That is when you need to remind the broker they are required to submit your offer to the seller.


They very well could have a direction to not present any offers below list (or whatever price the seller decides).


----------



## Brianstl

JETSDAD said:


> They very well could have a direction to not present any offers below list (or whatever price the seller decides).


It doesn't matter.  Brokers are obligated to reveal "all offers to purchase the seller's property."


----------



## JETSDAD

Brianstl said:


> It doesn't matter.  Brokers are obligated to reveal "all offers to purchase the seller's property."


Unless they have direction from the client otherwise.  That is a very common law in real estate including in Florida.


----------



## Brianstl

JETSDAD said:


> Unless they have direction from the client otherwise.  That is a very common law in real estate including in Florida.


You are correct.  If the seller submits in writing a price floor he doesn't have to present the offer if it is below that floor.  I was under the mistaken impression all written offers had to be submitted in a single agent transaction.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

MrWonderful said:


> We purchased thru https://www.*************.com/
> 
> All in all very professional and prompt. Of course, I may have just stumbled into a super responsive seller... but it all went very quick and pleasant.



Same experience here.  I actually dealt with this broker twice.  The first was for a SSR contract which had two offers; we declined to pursue it, and it sold to the other person for $94.  It was a quick and professional exchange. 

My final experience with this website/broker was for the contract we purchased.  We went back and forth about 5-6 emails, but it was done in a couple hours (on a late Sunday morning)--extremely prompt!

I actually loved the formatting from this broker.  Each email, he wrote everything out--all the details and pricing so it was very clear where we were at each step.  He was also very professional and not personal/judging in his tone (we started $15 under asking), plus he used sentences with no grammatical errors! 

In the previous 3 weeks, three other brokers replied to me like they were texting me--some would send back one word answers, or there were lots of errors.  One even just picked up the phone and called me direct because she realized that she was sending me gibberish. 

Just my two cents....


----------



## MICKIMINI

ABE4DISNEY said:


> Same experience here.  I actually dealt with this broker twice.  The first was for a SSR contract which had two offers; we declined to pursue it, and it sold to the other person for $94.  It was a quick and professional exchange.
> 
> My final experience with this website/broker was for the contract we purchased.  We went back and forth about 5-6 emails, but it was done in a couple hours (on a late Sunday morning)--extremely prompt!
> 
> I actually loved the formatting from this broker.  Each email, he wrote everything out--all the details and pricing so it was very clear where we were at each step.  He was also very professional and not personal/judging in his tone (we started $15 under asking), plus he used sentences with no grammatical errors!
> 
> In the previous 3 weeks, three other brokers replied to me like they were texting me--some would send back one word answers, or there were lots of errors.  One even just picked up the phone and called me direct because she realized that she was sending me gibberish.
> 
> Just my two cents....


I totally agree, being treated professionally and politely goes a long ways toward fruitful negotiations.  Regardless of the economic climate, brokers who consistently treat customers with respect will win in the long run - and sales IS the long run.  Repeat customers and word of mouth, especially in this day and age of social media is crucial.  Those that don't place value on their _potential_ customers will lose.  The goal is to turn those lookers into customers and that does not happen with one word answers and hasty email replies.  

Watch out brokers, ABE4DISNEY has the red marking pen at the ready!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

MICKIMINI said:


> Watch out brokers, ABE4DISNEY has the red marking pen at the ready!



Well, I was an English teacher......

Now I better watch out!! LOL.   Don't scrutinize my writings; I'm hear, I mean, I'm *HERE* only for the fun!


----------



## E2ME2

disneykim17 said:


> The two contracts we have were direct purchases, however, the direct cost now is more than we want to spend so we are looking towards resale for second add-on.  Currently AKL direct is $186 pp and on resale I've seen it as low as $105.  We can get 25 points more going resale than direct.


Couldn't you get about 77 more points, with that price differential?
100Pts at $186 = $18,600
$18,600 / $105 = 177Pts


----------



## disneykim17

E2ME2 said:


> Couldn't you get about 77 more points, with that price differential?
> 100Pts at $186 = $18,600
> $18,600 / $105 = 177Pts


Since we are looking for an add-on, we have a price range in mind that doesn't work with purchasing direct anymore, but works well with resale.  We are looking for 75-80 points with a Sept. UY.  75 Pts at $186 = $13,950 (w/o closing costs) and 75 Pts at $105 = $7,875 and leaves room for closing costs.


----------



## Lorana

MrWonderful said:


> We purchased thru https://www.*************.com/
> 
> All in all very professional and prompt. Of course, I may have just stumbled into a super responsive seller... but it all went very quick and pleasant.


I have a contract in ROFR right now through them. Absolutely agree!  Prompt, courteous, recapped all important information, and helped me seal the deal. 10/10, would work with again.


----------



## Lorana

MICKIMINI said:


> I have never done a transfer since buying in 1996!  I believe you can do one a year (UY or calendar?)  You have to find another DVC owner who is willing to take the transfer and pay you.  There are threads on disboards regarding transfers.  There is a rental thread on disboards though I have never used it.


Once per UY. I in fact recently purchased transferred points - one in 2019 UY (which I banked into 2020) and one in 2020 UY.  Both transactions were done within about a month of each other (same calendar year).


----------



## Sun_soakin

Jumping in here and haven’t read much of the thread... I read that listings are up considerably YOY, but have prices come down at all? I always kick myself for not having bought in during the last downturn. I’d love to get a decent price on GCV, but would also be happy to grab SSR if it was cheap. We’d be looking at large contracts (we have 4 kids). Thx!


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Sun_soakin said:


> Jumping in here and haven’t read much of the thread... I read that listings are up considerably YOY, but have prices come down at all? I always kick myself for not having bought in during the last downturn. I’d love to get a decent price on GCV, but would also be happy to grab SSR if it was cheap. We’d be looking at large contracts (we have 4 kids). Thx!



No, there's been no big drop in prices.  You can find some contracts that are lower compared to the average before the crisis but it's not affecting all contracts.


----------



## Noah_t

While I agree theres a lot of listings out there still asking a premium I am seeing some really great deals that were not around 6 months ago.  120 Poly, 80 Aulani, 100-130 BLT,  Beach clubs below 130, Boardwalks below 110, SSR's well below 100.  These are not one offs either.  I posit anyone out there could find the aforementioned prices if they look and make some below asking offers.


----------



## Sun_soakin

KAT4DISNEY said:


> No, there's been no big drop in prices.  You can find some contracts that are lower compared to the average before the crisis but it's not affecting all contracts.



Bummer. Well, that’s good news for our economy...I haven’t seen deals anywhere. In fact, our local real estate market is on fire


----------



## Sun_soakin

Noah_t said:


> While I agree theres a lot of listings out there still asking a premium I am seeing some really great deals that were not around 6 months ago.  120 Poly, 80 Aulani, 100-130 BLT,  Beach clubs below 130, Boardwalks below 110, SSR's well below 100.  These are not one offs either.  I posit anyone out there could find the aforementioned prices if they look and make some below asking offers.



I need to start watching. It’s been a while since I thought about it seriously, so I’m not up to speed on where pricing has been lately. I was just getting annoyed at the restrictions Disney was putting on resale members. Tho I don’t think those perks held much real value last time I checked.


----------



## bookwormde

6/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120-140% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Noah_t said:


> * Beach clubs below 130, Boardwalks below 110, SSR's well below 100.*  These are not one offs either.  I posit anyone out there could find the aforementioned prices if they look and make some below asking offers.



You must be interested in the larger contracts; there are definitely some good deals there! 

But for people looking in that 25-150 range, not so much.  I've been trolling around looking for lower points/cheaper prices for a couple months now and there is not much left under 100 points.  And the prices in that range have pretty much stabilized or are even going up.

I think our perspective of the resale market is through the lens of what we are each specifically searching.


----------



## Noah_t

ABE4DISNEY said:


> You must be interested in the larger contracts; there are definitely some good deals there!
> 
> But for people looking in that 25-150 range, not so much.  I've been trolling around looking for lower points/cheaper prices for a couple months now and there is not much left under 100 points.  And the prices in that range have pretty much stabilized or are even going up.
> 
> I think our perspective of the resale market is through the lens of what we are each specifically searching.


Yes that's a good point.  Most anything under 100 points are pretty expensive aren't they.  If you can get up to 150 there are definitely some great deals though.  What resorts are you looking at?


----------



## Brian Noble

Sun_soakin said:


> Bummer. Well, that’s good news for our economy...I haven’t seen deals anywhere. In fact, our local real estate market is on fire


My sense is that there is still a lot of denial in the air on both sides of the market. Everyone wants everything to be back to normal, but I don't think it will be for a good while--either economically or epidemiologically. It is going to take some time for reality to sink in, because reality just isn't that pleasant and humans have an uncanny ability to resist unpleasant facts.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

disneykim17 said:


> Since we are looking for an add-on, we have a price range in mind that doesn't work with purchasing direct anymore, but works well with resale.  We are looking for 75-80 points with a Sept. UY.  75 Pts at $186 = $13,950 (w/o closing costs) and 75 Pts at $105 = $7,875 and leaves room for closing costs.



I think you are going to end up with a 100 pt contract unless you're really patient or really lucky.  ROFR thread has 5 contracts in the last year under 100 points.  3 - 50's, 1 - 60 and 1- 80 and you can't expect the low end pricing for under 100 points.  You usually pay a premium.

Just factor in the extra expense for points you "don't need but will use anyway".  Lol.  And the extra dues.


----------



## soniam

Sun_soakin said:


> Bummer. Well, that’s good news for our economy...I haven’t seen deals anywhere. In fact, our local real estate market is on fire



I am really surprised by our market here too. Our neighbor is a real estate agent, actually sold us our house. He said things are still going well. The houses for sale in our neighborhood are moving fast too. Also, our house value has kept jumping in price the whole time according to sites like Redfin and Zillow. However, our market barely stumbled during the Lehman brothers crisis. It sort of paused for about 6 months, maybe a year if it was a higher priced smaller home near downtown, but then started moving up again. I am hoping things will stay this way, but there could be a boomerang way off in the distance that's about to come back and slap the economy down.


----------



## CastAStone

Noah_t said:


> While I agree theres a lot of listings out there still asking a premium I am seeing some really great deals that were not around 6 months ago.  120 Poly, 80 Aulani, 100-130 BLT,  Beach clubs below 130, Boardwalks below 110, SSR's well below 100.  These are not one offs either.  I posit anyone out there could find the aforementioned prices if they look and make some below asking offers.


Agree. Some resorts like AKV and VGC haven’t budged, save for the occasional one off desperate seller.

Others though like SSR, BWV, and VGF have seen very clear price drops of roughly 10%-15% across all point offerings. To me that is a very meaningful change on something so expensive.


----------



## Royal Consort

CastAStone said:


> Agree. Some resorts like AKV and VGC haven’t budged, save for the occasional one off desperate seller.
> 
> Others though like SSR, BWV, and VGF have seen very clear price drops of roughly 10%-15% across all point offerings. To me that is a very meaningful change on something so expensive.



The usual suspects appear to be trading as normal because there has always been a steady supply. Previously contracts for VGF were fewer and far between, particularly within the <100 point mark. Over the last couple of months there has been more availability with a variety of UY available. The price reductions are certainly not DVC wide but focused on specific resorts. Perhaps this is a correction of sorts.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

CastAStone said:


> Agree. Some resorts like AKV and VGC haven’t budged, save for the occasional one off desperate seller.
> 
> Others though like SSR, BWV, and VGF have seen very clear price drops of roughly 10%-15% across all point offerings. To me that is a very meaningful change on something so expensive.



Those resorts also had seen that jump in just the past 10-12 months.  I'd say that was when it went a little cuckoo and now any drop is just a more realistic return.  VGF was pretty easy to get for $155 or so less than a year ago.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Noah_t said:


> What resorts are you looking at?



I’m only looking for a really good deal right now.  

I already added on and don’t really need any points, but if I saw a small one that was a steal, I would jump on it.  Preferences would be BLT, PVB, or VGF as I don’t have a monorail contract yet.  

Maybe the fall will bring some deals?


----------



## Arguetafamily

lovethesun12 said:


> Hrm so with the borrowing restrictions over two years I’ll guess I’ll have to make sure I have double the points too, just in case



So the borrowing restrictions are set for two years  Is this set in stone


----------



## CastAStone

Arguetafamily said:


> So the borrowing restrictions are set for two years  Is this set in stone


They have given no timeframe.


----------



## mentos

CastAStone said:


> Agree. Some resorts like AKV and VGC haven’t budged, save for the occasional one off desperate seller.



Man I need to pay better attention when someone is desperately selling a VGC contract, I don't have such good luck finding those listings!

(btw I read all of your posts in Ving Rhames' voice thanks to your avatar)


----------



## lovethesun12

Arguetafamily said:


> So the borrowing restrictions are set for two years  Is this set in stone


Sorry, I said that because my plan was to buy points so I’d go to one resort every two years (two contracts). I said that tongue in cheek as an excuse to buy more points =)


----------



## JollyHoliday25

I wonder if they’ll just magically make the 50% rule go away at some point or if it will be a gradual phase out (like to 75% then done)


----------



## Heather07438

Sun_soakin said:


> Bummer. Well, that’s good news for our economy...I haven’t seen deals anywhere. In fact, our local real estate market is on fire


People are moving out of the cities in droves since C19 made them question how easily quality of life can be affected in the city.  Bidding wars happening much more often.  The exurbs are where it's at now.


----------



## JollyHoliday25

Heather07438 said:


> People are moving out of the cities in droves since C19 made them question how easily quality of life can be affected in the city.  Bidding wars happening much more often.  The exurbs are where it's at now.



I’m kind of eyeing a second home in Hawaii, in addition to extra DVC contracts. I think a lot of people pulled listings for homes and are just sitting tight.


----------



## bookwormde

6/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30-40% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## CastAStone

mentos said:


> Man I need to pay better attention when someone is desperately selling a VGC contract, I don't have such good luck finding those listings!
> 
> (btw I read all of your posts in Ving Rhames' voice thanks to your avatar)


Haha. Bubbles is a Disney all timer. But my favorite Ving Rhames remains this ad.

Yeah that $165 on the ROFR thread for VGC I think made a lot of people jealous.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> Haha. Bubbles is a Disney all timer. But my favorite Ving Rhames remains this ad.
> 
> Yeah that $165 on the ROFR thread for VGC I think made a lot of people jealous.


Certainly made ME jealous.  VGC for $165?  Absolutely I'd buy that.  $200+?  No way.


----------



## mentos

Lorana said:


> Certainly made ME jealous.  VGC for $165?  Absolutely I'd buy that.  $200+?  No way.



I bought $150/pt in 2016 and my biggest regret was not buying more 

I can’t even spend $200...$220/pt if I wanted to, I breezed through a few listing sites and they were either devoid of listings or all pending.

Here’s to hoping the new DVC property by DLH moves along quickly.


----------



## Lorana

mentos said:


> I bought $150/pt in 2016 and my biggest regret was not buying more
> 
> I can’t even spend $200...$220/pt if I wanted to, I breezed through a few listing sites and they were either devoid of listings or all pending.
> 
> Here’s to hoping the new DVC property by DLH moves along quickly.


Yes, here's to hoping!
Though if I'm being honest with myself, I really want VGC and not DLH, because it's the theming I love.  I own at BRV and AKL, and I want to complete my (Peter Dominck) trifecta.  ;-)


----------



## bookwormde

6/14 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-80% of average*

For the week of 6/8 to 6/14 newly posted resale contracts at about 140-150% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## glamdring269

What kind of risk are you guys pricing in when deciding whether to buy right now or not? Prices have come down a bit over the last few months but nothing tremendous. I do wonder if those prices will start to fall later on as folks go to the parks and don't like what they find there given the restrictions. This means we might not see a dip until the fall/winter time frame.

We just sold our lone contract and are looking to buy back in. I've made a couple of low ball offers but nothing overly serious at this point. And the main reason for that is out of concern of what the future is going to hold. I'm not worried about whether or not buying now is buying at the bottom. I'm more concerned that some of these changes we perceive to be short term changes end up having longer term impact.

So just out of curiosity, how concerned are you? Has it helped keep you from adding on or buying an initial contract? I know for us the current thinking process is as follows: 1) We got out from under our 2042 contract risk (BRV), 2) We will eventually/hopefully buy back in, 3) Do we buy back in now, given that our next trip will be fall 2021 at earliest, OR do we wait and see knowing that at worst case we will just end up renting for 2021?

How about you?


----------



## gisele2

I am not planning a trip before 2022.


----------



## TinkB278

glamdring269 said:


> What kind of risk are you guys pricing in when deciding whether to buy right now or not? Prices have come down a bit over the last few months but nothing tremendous. I do wonder if those prices will start to fall later on as folks go to the parks and don't like what they find there given the restrictions. This means we might not see a dip until the fall/winter time frame.
> 
> We just sold our lone contract and are looking to buy back in. I've made a couple of low ball offers but nothing overly serious at this point. And the main reason for that is out of concern of what the future is going to hold. I'm not worried about whether or not buying now is buying at the bottom. I'm more concerned that some of these changes we perceive to be short term changes end up having longer term impact.
> 
> So just out of curiosity, how concerned are you? Has it helped keep you from adding on or buying an initial contract? I know for us the current thinking process is as follows: 1) We got out from under our 2042 contract risk (BRV), 2) We will eventually/hopefully buy back in, 3) Do we buy back in now, given that our next trip will be fall 2021 at earliest, OR do we wait and see knowing that at worst case we will just end up renting for 2021?
> 
> How about you?


I think your question is really interesting is something I’ve been wondering about so much, especially since I haven’t really noticed anyone sounding concerned in their posts but the risk is all I can think about.

I had been pretty intent on buying my first contract in Feb/Mar right before this whole thing started. For me, I feel like the COVID situation brought to light the fact that there is a big risk in owning DVC. Also, I was really counting on being able to rent out my points for times where we needed a break from Disney and I didn’t want my travel money to have to go towards dues.

I still look at new contracts every day and it takes everything in me not to put offers in, but I think I will be waiting to see how things are when the parks open, and also to see if/when COVID ever goes away. I am hoping to go to Disney fall 2021 and decided I would rather just rent for about 1k more than I would spend in annual dues for the year and not have to take on any risk.
I really hope to buy someday but it just doesn’t feel smart to me right now.


----------



## lovethesun12

TinkB278 said:


> I think your question is really interesting is something I’ve been wondering about so much, especially since I haven’t really noticed anyone sounding concerned in their posts but the risk is all I can think about.
> 
> I had been pretty intent on buying my first contract in Feb/Mar right before this whole thing started. For me, I feel like the COVID situation brought to light the fact that there is a big risk in owning DVC. Also, I was really counting on being able to rent out my points for times where we needed a break from Disney and I didn’t want my travel money to have to go towards dues.
> 
> I still look at new contracts every day and it takes everything in me not to put offers in, but I think I will be waiting to see how things are when the parks open, and also to see if/when COVID ever goes away. I am hoping to go to Disney fall 2021 and decided I would rather just rent for about 1k more than I would spend in annual dues for the year and not have to take on any risk.
> I really hope to buy someday but it just doesn’t feel smart to me right now.


This is pretty much where I am. Given the risk, I’d rather wait it out a year and see what happens unless I get an amazing deal ($100 BLT for example). I won’t be renting though, that’s a whole different kind of risk. I’m going to do a cash stay with Disney that I can cancel if necessary and maybe upgrade my room if they offer discounts.


----------



## ClapYourHands

TinkB278 said:


> I think your question is really interesting is something I’ve been wondering about so much, especially since I haven’t really noticed anyone sounding concerned in their posts but the risk is all I can think about.
> 
> I had been pretty intent on buying my first contract in Feb/Mar right before this whole thing started. For me, I feel like the COVID situation brought to light the fact that there is a big risk in owning DVC. Also, I was really counting on being able to rent out my points for times where we needed a break from Disney and I didn’t want my travel money to have to go towards dues.
> 
> I still look at new contracts every day and it takes everything in me not to put offers in, but I think I will be waiting to see how things are when the parks open, and also to see if/when COVID ever goes away. I am hoping to go to Disney fall 2021 and decided I would rather just rent for about 1k more than I would spend in annual dues for the year and not have to take on any risk.
> I really hope to buy someday but it just doesn’t feel smart to me right now.



I started looking at DVC a couple of years ago, but DH was adamantly against being locked into any particular vacation destination.  I heard a lot about how low some of the contracts were back in 2009, and wish I'd known to buy then.  If DVC dips low enough again, I might be tempted.  

However, for me the biggest fear factor is the rental situation. I feel like the best thing DVC has going for it is the rental demand that can cover dues so it's not an on-going money suck if I'm not in a position to use my points (or just don't want to). Right now, it looks like things are a bit touch and go with David's, and a lot of people are scared off renting.  I'd need to see contracts drop a lot more to compensate for the risk of buying at the moment.  I don't foresee DVC becoming one of those timeshares that people will sell for $1 just to get out of the dues, but the pandemic has shown that there's more risk to DVC than there appeared to be a few months ago.


----------



## lovethesun12

ClapYourHands said:


> I started looking at DVC a couple of years ago, but DH was adamantly against being locked into any particular vacation destination.  I heard a lot about how low some of the contracts were back in 2009, and wish I'd known to buy then.  If DVC dips low enough again, I might be tempted.
> 
> However, for me the biggest fear factor is the rental situation. I feel like the best thing DVC has going for it is the rental demand that can cover dues so it's not an on-going money suck if I'm not in a position to use my points (or just don't want to). Right now, it looks like things are a bit touch and go with David's, and a lot of people are scared off renting.  I'd need to see contracts drop a lot more to compensate for the risk of buying at the moment.  I don't foresee DVC becoming one of those timeshares that people will sell for $1 just to get out of the dues, but the pandemic has shown that there's more risk to DVC than there appeared to be a few months ago.


This is a good point. How is the rental market going I wonder? I'm sure it's probably slower, but I wonder if there are still a substantial number of rentals happening?


----------



## MICKIMINI

As baby boomers, DH and I don't have the luxury of time to worry about "what ifs" into next year and beyond.  We originally bought OKW in 1996 and have enjoyed every single visit and now that our son has a bride, it is even more fun to spend Halloween with them (they live 3000 miles away from us).  Additionally, we are adding to our contracts in order to spend a month (or two) at WDW as snowbirds in retirement.  We already gift points and plan to upgrade our villas if we have extra points.  If a friend wants to rent and I have points that may be an option.

This is a temporary crisis we all have to endure, but it will pass and the fun of Disney will happen again.  We have much more fun at Disney then examining our bank statement!  There is risk to living and we choose to live the best life we can while we can.


----------



## lovethesun12

MICKIMINI said:


> As baby boomers, DH and I don't have the luxury of time to worry about "what ifs" into next year and beyond.  We originally bought OKW in 1996 and have enjoyed every single visit and now that our son has a bride, it is even more fun to spend Halloween with them (they live 3000 miles away from us).  Additionally, we are adding to our contracts in order to spend a month (or two) at WDW as snowbirds in retirement.  We already gift points and plan to upgrade our villas if we have extra points.  If a friend wants to rent and I have points that may be an option.
> 
> This is a temporary crisis we all have to endure, but it will pass and the fun of Disney will happen again.  We have much more fun at Disney then examining our bank statement!  There is risk to living and we choose to live the best life we can while we can.


I agree! If I owned already I wouldn't be worried either. Most buying shouldn't be worried. But when I purchase DVC I want to be really happy about it, so until I feel comfortable I'm going with the less risky cash stays. I guess it's different for everyone - if I didn't live so far from Florida I'd probably just go ahead now too =)


----------



## G.C.

glamdring269 said:


> What kind of risk are you guys pricing in when deciding whether to buy right now or not? Prices have come down a bit over the last few months but nothing tremendous. I do wonder if those prices will start to fall later on as folks go to the parks and don't like what they find there given the restrictions. This means we might not see a dip until the fall/winter time frame.
> 
> We just sold our lone contract and are looking to buy back in. I've made a couple of low ball offers but nothing overly serious at this point. And the main reason for that is out of concern of what the future is going to hold. I'm not worried about whether or not buying now is buying at the bottom. I'm more concerned that some of these changes we perceive to be short term changes end up having longer term impact.
> 
> So just out of curiosity, how concerned are you? Has it helped keep you from adding on or buying an initial contract? I know for us the current thinking process is as follows: 1) We got out from under our 2042 contract risk (BRV), 2) We will eventually/hopefully buy back in, 3) Do we buy back in now, given that our next trip will be fall 2021 at earliest, OR do we wait and see knowing that at worst case we will just end up renting for 2021?
> 
> How about you?


Everyone's situation is different, but here was my thought process-

I saw the risk as low in the long term.  I think WDW gets back to "normal enough, eventually."  First contract.  This was a financial calculation based on initial points cost plus projected dues over the life of contract for each property.  Matched the accommodations we wanted and started looking at the one or two properties where the math worked.  "Worked" for me meant that over the life of the contract, we could take a trip every other year for price of the Moderates we usually booked.  Others' definitions will vary.

If we were going to take the plunge, I wanted to get it done before the ROFR switch flipped back on.  I am putting this year's cancelled trip room cost toward the contract and my risk was having four contracts taken and wasting a bunch of time and now we can't take a trip next year because I don't have a contract.  When it passes (right?), if the conditions aren't favorable for a 2021 trip, I'll bank and plan on 2022.  If we're still not in a good place by then, well, there's some more risk and I've got some explaining to do.

Day 14 into ROFR.  I know others are well past 30- hoping that this does not stretch to infinity and beyond... good vibes to all who are waiting.


----------



## Sun_soakin

Heather07438 said:


> People are moving out of the cities in droves since C19 made them question how easily quality of life can be affected in the city.  Bidding wars happening much more often.  The exurbs are where it's at now.


The Bay Area remains super hot due to low supply and pent up spring demand. This is in spite of all the people supposedly leaving in droves. We’ll have to wait and see where it all lands. But I agree, a lot of people willing to move further out for space and their money can go a lot farther there, so why not bid things up. A lot of people are trying to improve their immediate situation by grabbing up vacation homes too.


----------



## Sun_soakin

Lorana said:


> Yes, here's to hoping!
> Though if I'm being honest with myself, I really want VGC and not DLH, because it's the theming I love.  I own at BRV and AKL, and I want to complete my (Peter Dominck) trifecta.  ;-)


Maybe....but the rooms are so small at VGC...and DVC is down a labyrinth of hallways. We usually stay there because it’s the best location, but I’d be interested in a new resort at DLH.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Sun_soakin said:


> Maybe....but the rooms are so small at VGC...and DVC is down a labyrinth of hallways. We usually stay there because it’s the best location, but I’d be interested in a new resort at DLH.



Have you stayed in many of the GC rooms?  Most of those are in a labyrinth!  DVC is quite easy in comparison.


----------



## Sun_soakin

KAT4DISNEY said:


> Have you stayed in many of the GC rooms?  Most of those are in a labyrinth!  DVC is quite easy in comparison.


 
Yeah, there are lots of rooms that are down long long corridors. DVC and regular. There are regular rooms in great locations though too, just gotta request ‘em.


----------



## EatMoreVeg

lovethesun12 said:


> This is a good point. How is the rental market going I wonder? I'm sure it's probably slower, but I wonder if there are still a substantial number of rentals happening?



I’m also quite curious how the rental market is going! I wonder if any renters (and rentees?) can speak to this! I see a lot of posts still going up on the rental board and a fairly steady stream of replies! Except for that one post renting RIV for like, $25+ pp! But it seems like there is still a market for it? However, I’m still fairly new to these boards so not sure if the activity on those boards is down quite a bit from what it used to be


----------



## LilyJC

KAT4DISNEY said:


> Have you stayed in many of the GC rooms?  Most of those are in a labyrinth!  DVC is quite easy in comparison.



Definitely agree the DVC wing is easy peasy compared to the regular GCH rooms. We’ve gotten lost many times in the regular building, but no problems in VGC.


----------



## bookwormde

6/15 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

From the sites that I track he first half of June had 245 new contracts listed as compared to 189 for the first half of May


----------



## Lorana

Sun_soakin said:


> Maybe....but the rooms are so small at VGC...and DVC is down a labyrinth of hallways. We usually stay there because it’s the best location, but I’d be interested in a new resort at DLH.


I am interested and maybe they’ll wow me with the theming, and I’ll change my mind. That said, we really like 1BRs and the plans for DLH seem heavy on studios and light on 1BR and 2BRs...

I wish US Disney would be more like Japan Disney in terms of its theming. ;-)


----------



## RoseGold

I bought Poly and SSR in fall/winter 2019 (Team White Card!), and prices are now solidly above what I paid.  I guess I will be hanging back for a while.  If I'm going to pay this close to all time high prices, I want more certainty about the experience.


----------



## chicagoshannon

RoseGold said:


> I bought Poly and SSR in fall/winter 2019 (Team White Card!), and prices are now solidly above what I paid.  I guess I will be hanging back for a while.  If I'm going to pay this close to all time high prices, I want more certainty about the experience.


what did you pay for SSR?  I bought last summer and the SSR contracts all seem to be about the same or slightly less than the prices I was seeing last year.


----------



## RoseGold

chicagoshannon said:


> what did you pay for SSR?  I bought last summer and the SSR contracts all seem to be about the same or slightly less than the prices I was seeing last year.



I bought a loaded SSR contract at the end of 2019 for 97.  I might be losing those (2018) banked points if my Christmas trip gets canceled, but hey, they're mine to lose.  That's what stripped contracts are selling at right now.  SSR (and AKL!) has held value like a rock, maybe even going up?


----------



## chicagoshannon

RoseGold said:


> I bought a loaded SSR contract at the end of 2019 for 97.  I might be losing those banked points if my Christmas trip gets canceled, but hey, they're mine to lose.  That's what stripped contracts are selling at right now.  SSR (and AKL!) has held value like a rock, maybe even going up?


Thanks.  I'm in the middle of the bidding process again so the more data the better.  I've been bidding at 90 so we'll see what happens (got a counter at 98 but told them no and they want us to counter again so looks like we could get it for less if we decide to pursue) and I'm not bidding on stripped, have to have at least 2020 points available for me to bid.


----------



## mamaofsix

RoseGold said:


> I bought Poly and SSR in fall/winter 2019 (Team White Card!), and prices are now solidly above what I paid.  I guess I will be hanging back for a while.  If I'm going to pay this close to all time high prices, I want more certainty about the experience.


If you check out the ROFR thread, you'll see that most contracts are actually selling for less than the $97 you paid.  Most accepted deals for SSR are in the high $80 - low $90 range right now.  Perhaps you are seeing listings for higher than 97, but that's not what people are paying for them...


----------



## ClapYourHands

mamaofsix said:


> If you check out the ROFR thread, you'll see that most contracts are actually selling for less than the $97 you paid.  Most accepted deals for SSR are in the high $80 - low $90 range right now.  Perhaps you are seeing listings for higher than 97, but that's not what people are paying for them...


I'm not an expert, but from what I've seen in listings, it also depends on the size of the contract.  I've noticed smaller contracts seem to be asking higher prices per point than larger contracts.  Perhaps @RoseGold bought a smaller contract.


----------



## Bellecruiser

bookwormde said:


> 6/15 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


When you say 280% of average do you mean the volume of sales is up 280% of average, or the price is up 280% of average.


----------



## MrWonderful

Bellecruiser said:


> When you say 280% of average do you mean the volume of sales is up 280% of average, or the price is up 280% of average.



I would think he means volume of new listings compared to average


----------



## taaren

LilyJC said:


> Definitely agree the DVC wing is easy peasy compared to the regular GCH rooms. We’ve gotten lost many times in the regular building, but no problems in VGC.


One of our first trips at the VGC we took a friend who wanted to eat at Napa Rose and bought us a few bottles of wine with dinner ... after dinner he suggested we explore the hotel and take the long way back to the room on the 2nd or 3rd story instead of walking through the lobby. Our tipsy walk back to the room ended up taking us about 45 minutes to get from the Napa Rose to the villa, past a few CMs who valiantly tried to explain how many rights and lefts at the end of hallways to get to our wing.


----------



## LilyJC

taaren said:


> One of our first trips at the VGC we took a friend who wanted to eat at Napa Rose and bought us a few bottles of wine with dinner ... after dinner he suggested we explore the hotel and take the long way back to the room on the 2nd or 3rd story instead of walking through the lobby. Our tipsy walk back to the room ended up taking us about 45 minutes to get from the Napa Rose to the villa, past a few CMs who valiantly tried to explain how many rights and lefts at the end of hallways to get to our wing.



Hilarious!  We’ve thankfully been rescued by the kindly CMs many times! They usually walk us to where we need to be after seeing I’m not the best at processing the left/right directions.


----------



## bookwormde

Bellecruiser said:


> When you say 280% of average do you mean the volume of sales is up 280% of average, or the price is up 280% of average.


Number of new resale contracts


----------



## MICKIMINI

There is a 100 point SSR AUG UY with 100 2020 and 100 2021 points for $100 at Fidelity right now!  I think it dropped this morning (not positive) and it is a great place to start negotiations.  Stalk until you drop!


----------



## glamdring269

MICKIMINI said:


> There is a 100 point SSR AUG UY with 100 2020 and 100 2021 points for $100 at Fidelity right now!  I think it dropped this morning (not positive) and it is a great place to start negotiations.  Stalk until you drop!



There is an even better February 100 pointer there priced at $95. Crazy. This seems like the best way to get into a 1BR pretty much anywhere at 7 months for most times of the year if you travel every 2 years like we do. I'll bet you can get these contracts in the 80s. My only concern would be getting stuck at SSR but then again Disney Springs is pretty nice now.


----------



## syderial

Just for perspective Disney did not use rofr in April. They have been told not to until the reopen date is firm and so that may continue into at least June, possibly until the actual reopen itself. Yes this is insider info and confirmed.


----------



## Brianstl

syderial said:


> Just for perspective Disney did not use rofr in April. They have been told not to until the reopen date is firm and so that may continue into at least June, possibly until the actual reopen itself. Yes this is insider info and confirmed.


I think it will go on longer than that.  They are only going to buyback contracts that they already have direct buyers for and will try to force all direct buyers into buying RIV.  They aren’t going to use limited cash to prop up resale prices.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

Brianstl said:


> I think it will go on longer than that.  They are only going to buyback contracts that they already have direct buyers for and will try to force all direct buyers into buying RIV.  They aren’t going to use limited cash to prop up resale prices.



With Reflections cancelled, they would have some cash to support resale prices with ROFRs.  The higher the resale price, the easier it is to sell RIV direct.


----------



## CarolMN

iflyjetzzz said:


> With Reflections cancelled, they would have some cash to support resale prices with ROFRs.  The higher the resale price, the easier it is to sell RIV direct.


Agree with @Brianstl.  DVD won't have extra cash.  Exercising ROFR is low priority relative to other corporate needs for cash.

When I worked in a large multi-divisional corporation, our division's capital budget often got cut/reallocated/revised/"enhanced" when some of the corporation 's other divisions were struggling.


----------



## bookwormde

6/16 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340-360% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## kboo

MICKIMINI said:


> Watch out brokers, ABE4DISNEY has the red marking pen at the ready!


What is the grammar discount these days? $5 pp? hehe



Heather07438 said:


> People are moving out of the cities in droves since C19 made them question how easily quality of life can be affected in the city.  Bidding wars happening much more often.  The exurbs are where it's at now.


NYC here - we are hearing of bidding wars on homes in the suburbs and inventory is way up (and prices are softening) on apartments in the city. DH and I work in jobs where we are not able to work remotely, so we are staying in the city. I keep telling him we could look for more points to stay in GVs, and he responds by sending me listings for very nice apartments in NYC.


----------



## bookwormde

6/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 150-160% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Sun_soakin

Lorana said:


> I am interested and maybe they’ll wow me with the theming, and I’ll change my mind. That said, we really like 1BRs and the plans for DLH seem heavy on studios and light on 1BR and 2BRs...
> 
> I wish US Disney would be more like Japan Disney in terms of its theming. ;-)


Oh that’s too bad, we need 2brs. I wonder if the abundance of studios are at least connecting for a possible 2rm configuration


----------



## bookwormde

6/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-150% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Lorana

Sun_soakin said:


> Oh that’s too bad, we need 2brs. I wonder if the abundance of studios are at least connecting for a possible 2rm configuration


I'm hoping for that, too!  I'll look to see if there were floor layout concepts done.  There was just this back in January:
"The tower’s 350 rooms would include 271 larger studios, 38 smaller two-person studios, 20 two-bedroom suites, 19 one-bedroom suites and two Grand Villas "

However, looking at the May updates, the plans now call for 293 units, so maybe there will be more 1 and 2 bedroom suites.  I also hope that the 19 one bedrooms could also be 19 lock-offs?


----------



## bookwormde

6/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120-140% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

6/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-70% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## ClapYourHands

bookwormde said:


> 6/20 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 60-70% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


Would you please help a newbie out and explain the significance of the % of resale contract updates? Is that just how many are listed? The prices compared to previously sold contracts? I’m DVC curious, and trying to educate myself. Thank you.


----------



## bookwormde

ClapYourHands said:


> Would you please help a newbie out and explain the significance of the % of resale contract updates? Is that just how many are listed? The prices compared to previously sold contracts? I’m DVC curious, and trying to educate myself. Thank you.


relative number of newly listed contracts on 5 sites as compared to pre shut down


----------



## bookwormde

6/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180-190% of average*

For the week of 6/15 to 6/21 newly posted resale contracts at about 180-190% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Just curious, I pulled the trigger and put in an offer this morning via a well known DVC resale website and haven’t heard back from the company yet. (Other than a bounce back email saying a broker would be in contact soon.)  Is there a normal amount of time before a broker reaches out to you? TIA!


----------



## deedubb

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Just curious, I pulled the trigger and put in an offer this morning via a well known DVC resale website and haven’t heard back from the company yet. (Other than a bounce back email saying a broker would be in contact soon.)  Is there a normal amount of time before a broker reaches out to you? TIA!


I usually hear back withing 30 mins or sooner.  I have had one broker who never responded at all.  My offer is still on their website when I log in.  It was a lowball offer, so I guess they felt they didn't need to respond.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

deedubb said:


> I usually hear back withing 30 mins or sooner.  I have had one broker who never responded at all.  My offer is still on their website when I log in.  It was a lowball offer, so I guess they felt they didn't need to respond.


Thank you!  I just got off the phone; the broker just called and sounded a bit rushed and mentioned it was loooong Monday.  I got a counter offer for a HHI contract and am trying to balance what I think is a fair price that truly incorporates all  associated risk vs. a small dollar difference from my offer and the resort we love.


----------



## Frederic Civish

I don't know where prices are going, however my real supposition is that they will soften a bit more.  Perhaps as much as 10% or 15%, but not a lot.  However, it is possible that there will be the occasional contract that is put out there at a surprisingly low price, and since Disney is mostly out of the ROFR business at the moment, I think some amazing deals might become available, for people with sharp eyes.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Frederic Civish said:


> I don't know where prices are going, however my real supposition is that they will soften a bit more.  Perhaps as much as 10% or 15%, but not a lot.  However, it is possible that there will be the occasional contract that is put out there at a surprisingly low price, and since Disney is mostly out of the ROFR business at the moment, I think some amazing deals might become available, for people with sharp eyes.


That is helpful and appreciated.  When looking at the prices for HHI, it seemed like Fidelity was first to adjust their pricing and that it is now starting to flow on to the other resales companies.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Can I throw out numbers on a contract that I’m in negotiations for to get input from the group?  I don’t want to violate any rules.


----------



## hlhlaw07

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Can I throw out numbers on a contract that I’m in negotiations for to get input from the group?  I don’t want to violate any rules.


There is no rule against that.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Great!  I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI.  The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.  

As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines.  Are we there yet?  I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?

From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public.  If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.

So what’s a fair price?  Just curious for some other perspectives please!


----------



## Noah_t

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Great!  I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI.  The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
> I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.
> 
> As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines.  Are we there yet?  I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?
> 
> From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public.  If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.
> 
> So what’s a fair price?  Just curious for some other perspectives please!


How many points are on the contract?  If it was me I would want a nice loaded one.  Dues are quite high at HHI so keep that in mind too.


----------



## CastAStone

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Great!  I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI.  The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
> I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.
> 
> As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines.  Are we there yet?  I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?
> 
> From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public.  If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.
> 
> So what’s a fair price?  Just curious for some other perspectives please!


Some thoughts on the tipping point:
So a studio is like $3K/ week in the summer, or 129 points. So each year, if you use them in the summer, a point is worth like $23. Take away the dues and it’s ~$14. So in theory it still has value above what you’re paying for it for 15 more years. Said differently, if the resort expired in 2027, I’m not sure you’d be paying _that_ much less for it.


----------



## Lorana

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Great!  I put an offer of $63 on a 200 point contract for HHI.  The counter offer is $65 and I pay closing costs and annual dues (as expected.)
> I’m just not sure that $65 pp represents the risk in our current situation and the 2042 expiration.
> 
> As to the 2042 expiration, there will be a tipping point sometime as the number of years left declines.  Are we there yet?  I don’t think so, but does that happen in the next few years?
> 
> From a risk perspective, HHI is seeing a large spike right now and has asked that everyone wear masks in public.  If this drives DVC cancellations at HHI in the short term (and long term as well), booking availability will be impacted for next year for certain.
> 
> So what’s a fair price?  Just curious for some other perspectives please!


My thinking would be this way: is the $400 that big a different to you, or would you rather have the contract?  In the end, that's what we're talking about.  
If they don't want to go lower than $65, and you are willing to settle for $63, then maybe ask them to go 50/50 on the annual dues?
I don't have a good sense of the current going prices for HHI, but the current ROFR thread has small point contracts at $80pp as a comparison.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Noah_t said:


> How many points are on the contract?  If it was me I would want a nice loaded one.  Dues are quite high at HHI so keep that in mind too.


Thanks!! It is loaded.  I’m with you, a stripped contract just isn’t of interest unless the valuation truly reflects that.  Spot on about the maintenance fees, we just love that resort though and summer is very difficult to book without owning there.  The WDW dues are so much less; LOL, first time I’ve ever complimented WDW as a value!


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

CastAStone said:


> Some thoughts on the tipping point:
> So a studio is like $3K/ week in the summer, or 129 points. So each year, if you use them in the summer, a point is worth like $23. Take away the dues and it’s ~$14. So in theory it still has value above what you’re paying for it for 15 more years. Said differently, if the resort expired in 2027, I’m not sure you’d be paying _that_ much less for it.


Thanks Castastone for sharing the idea of a break even analysis and even providing numbers!  That is a great way to think about it; you are living up to your title as math whiz.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Lorana said:


> My thinking would be this way: is the $400 that big a different to you, or would you rather have the contract?  In the end, that's what we're talking about.
> If they don't want to go lower than $65, and you are willing to settle for $63, then maybe ask them to go 50/50 on the annual dues?
> I don't have a good sense of the current going prices for HHI, but the current ROFR thread has small point contracts at $80pp as a comparison.


Thank you Lorana!  That is helpful as well and definitely a few things to consider.   Much appreciated!


----------



## bookwormde

6/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-340% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## chunks

bookwormde said:


> 6/22 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-340% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.



Thanks for updating these every day.  Love the info.


----------



## bookwormde

6/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-230% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## disneykim17

I have a question regarding UY...If we have 3 accounts all for the same resort and 2 with the same UY and 1 with a different UY can they all be linked under one logon?  Also, can they be maintained under one ID?  Any information would be greatly appreciated.  Thank you.


----------



## taaren

disneykim17 said:


> I have a question regarding UY...If we have 3 accounts all for the same resort and 2 with the same UY and 1 with a different UY can they all be linked under one logon? Also, can they be maintained under one ID? Any information would be greatly appreciated. Thank you.


If you have two with the same UY, same names on the contracts, everything identical you should be able to combine those into 1 membership number when you purchase. The other contract will have a different membership number but you should be able to access from the same login.


----------



## bookwormde

6/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Cowgirl_Jessie said:


> Thank you Lorana!  That is helpful as well and definitely a few things to consider.   Much appreciated!


Sounds like a fair deal to me!  Being loaded tips the scale.


----------



## disneykim17

I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point.  0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k.  The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites.  Would like to hear thoughts on this.


----------



## bookwormde

disneykim17 said:


> I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point.  0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k.  The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites.  Would like to hear thoughts on this.


because the supply got low, there were quite a few AKV that came on the market at $10 to 20 above the the market.


----------



## CastAStone

disneykim17 said:


> I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point.  0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k.  The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites.  Would like to hear thoughts on this.


----------



## disneykim17

bookwormde said:


> because the supply got low, there were quite a few AKV that came on the market at $10 to 20 above the the market.


Thank you bookwormde...do you think this will continue with AKV resale contracts?  I didn't want to low ball and insult the seller.


----------



## holyrita

disneykim17 said:


> I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point.  0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k.  The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites.  Would like to hear thoughts on this.


The total for my 160 AKV contract is less than this one.. waaaay too high, compared to what you can get elsewhere. Keep looking!


----------



## disneykim17

holyrita said:


> The total for my 160 AKV contract is less than this one.. waaaay too high, compared to what you can get elsewhere. Keep looking!


That's what I was thinking as well.  I was liking the prices that I saw last week between $105 and $110 per point.  I contemplated offering $108 but like I said didn't want to offend anyone.


----------



## TinkB278

disneykim17 said:


> I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point.  0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k.  The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites.  Would like to hear thoughts on this.


I saw this and thought it was super high. I just feel like that website is really propping up the prices on AKV. You can almost get poly or BLT for the same price.


----------



## striker1064

disneykim17 said:


> That's what I was thinking as well.  I was liking the prices that I saw last week between $105 and $110 per point.  I contemplated offering $108 but like I said didn't want to offend anyone.



We got $102 for 160 AKV back in February, pre-COVID19. Granted, prices are always lower on more points plus there were more contracts available at that point than there are now, but that is my barometer. At the time I recall seeing $125 for 100 points and the seller wouldn't take anything less than full price, and that was too much for us. I wouldn't go for this.

AKV has a lot of total of points. Prices will come back down eventually as more contracts come on the market. You can always expect to see more listings around the time MFs come due in December/January. I would wait it out.


----------



## MrWonderful

disneykim17 said:


> That's what I was thinking as well.  I was liking the prices that I saw last week between $105 and $110 per point.  I contemplated offering $108 but like I said didn't want to offend anyone.



Offend away!  If you pay 130 you are way overpaying. When a listing is way overpriced, I way under bid. If they have a fair price, I bid much more reasonably. The goal is to settle on a fair price. NEVER feel you are offending a seller when they are not being reasonable.   My .02


----------



## EM Lawrence

I’ve seen several prices from one broker lately that have me looking for the “LOL” button.  Alas, it is missing.


----------



## MICKIMINI

$130 for 100 AKL is way TOO high!  I had several discussions with this broker regarding AKL prices as I tried to bid on two different contracts and lost both.  Their attitude is that people are willing to pay, so that's the price (according to their 'price checker") which they can manipulate up and down.  They are not the only broker out there.  There were two 25 point contracts that got full price of $120 last week...which was a fair price for such small contracts with points IMHO.


----------



## disneykim17

The only thing that made me think about making any kind of an offer is it is my UY and they don't come around too often.  Thank you everyone for your input...it is greatly appreciated.  I'll keep looking.


----------



## lovethesun12

EM Lawrence said:


> I’ve seen several prices from one broker lately that have me looking for the “LOL” button.  Alas, it is missing.


Yup. $170 for a poly contract with only 2021 points? No thanks. Someone asked on another thread who would pay $200+ for poly direct...that would be me, who does not want to buy Poly with no current use year points for $170pp...


----------



## bookwormde

Almost all of these are from using the largest  broker's price estimating tool, which is way off. I guess those that want to be told that there contract is worth more than it will sell for appear to be listing with them.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/what-is-my-dvc-contract-worth/


----------



## Isabelle12345

bookwormde said:


> Almost all of these are from using the largest  broker's price estimating tool, which is way off. I guess those that want to be told that there contract is worth more than it will sell for appear to be listing with them.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/what-is-my-dvc-contract-worth/


This makes me feel good about the price I got for my contract currently in ROFR... it IS way off!


----------



## bookwormde

bookwormde said:


> Almost all of these are from using the largest  broker's price estimating tool, which is way off. I guess those that want to be told that there contract is worth more than it will sell for appear to be listing with them.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/what-is-my-dvc-contract-worth/


I ran a lot of data from the ROFR thread and the majority are about $20 under what this tool shows. the majority of SSR and OKW contracts are closer to $10 under


----------



## poofyo101

disneykim17 said:


> I'm stalking a resale at AKV price of $130 pp for 100 point.  0/19, 200/20, 100/21 and buyer pays MF for 2020 which puts the price over $14k.  The price per point seems high compared to comps on other resale sites.  Would like to hear thoughts on this.


Too high as everyone said
Double points should be around 110 ish.
100 being a good deal.
Normal use year points around 105
Good deal being 90-95
Stripped good deal below 90.
IMO.


----------



## disneykim17

It seems like today the resale prices have gone way up and aren't sitting at the low prices they were last week.  I'm hoping that playing the wait and watch game the prices will come back down to what they were last week and the week before.  Any thoughts?


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> I ran a lot of data from the ROFR thread and the majority are about $20 under what this tool shows. the majority of SSR and OKW contracts are closer to $10 under


That sounds right from the little spot checking I've done. That site always seems to have the highest average prices of the 4-5 largest in my anecdotal analysis. That would say something closer to 15% off is more accurate in terms of comparing list to sold (although I do think the ROFR thread, by nature of being cobbled mainly by buyers, has a bit of a low price bias).


----------



## poofyo101

disneykim17 said:


> It seems like today the resale prices have gone way up and aren't sitting at the low prices they were last week.  I'm hoping that playing the wait and watch game the prices will come back down to what they were last week and the week before.  Any thoughts?



patience.
there has been one on fidelity with double points for 103 for quite some time. Oct use year.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> That sounds right from the little spot checking I've done. That site always seems to have the highest average prices of the 4-5 largest in my anecdotal analysis. That would say something closer to 15% off is more accurate in terms of comparing list to sold (although I do think the ROFR thread, by nature of being cobbled mainly by buyers, has a bit of a low price bias).


yes 15% was what I was seeing also. 

I agree  and DISers are likely more knowledgeable buyers so get somewhat lower prices


----------



## mcgils

bookwormde said:


> I ran a lot of data from the ROFR thread and the majority are about $20 under what this tool shows. the majority of SSR and OKW contracts are closer to $10 under


I just plugged in the details of my SSR contract that passed ROFR and it came out at $99/pt. The seller started there (with another broker), and we ended up at $90.


----------



## sethschroeder

MICKIMINI said:


> $130 for 100 AKL is way TOO high!  I had several discussions with this broker regarding AKL prices as I tried to bid on two different contracts and lost both.  Their attitude is that people are willing to pay, so that's the price (according to their 'price checker") which they can manipulate up and down.  They are not the only broker out there.  There were two 25 point contracts that got full price of $120 last week...which was a fair price for such small contracts with points IMHO.



If someone pays that though the broker is right and actually doing their job. 

Sometimes the reason other sites are so low is they don't get traffic or the broker is a quick seller or they have a reputation as a pain to work with.


----------



## sethschroeder

I am thinking any real change in price will come at the end of the year at this point when dues are coming up. 

I think part of the low inventory is also impacting the pricing and there is low inventory because "one last trip" got pushed off due to covid.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> I am thinking any real change in price will come at the end of the year at this point when dues are coming up.
> 
> I think part of the low inventory is also impacting the pricing and there is low inventory because "one last trip" got pushed off due to covid.


Perfect explanation.


----------



## bookwormde

6/25update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-160% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Brian Noble

bookwormde said:


> I agree and DISers are likely more knowledgeable buyers so get somewhat lower prices


It's not just that. I suspect some folks who don't get rock-bottom deals are hesitant to post in the ROFR thread for fear of looking like they were not savvy. Even among DISers, I suspect the ROFR thread is the low end of the spectrum.


----------



## striker1064

Brian Noble said:


> It's not just that. I suspect some folks who don't get rock-bottom deals are hesitant to post in the ROFR thread for fear of looking like they were not savvy. Even among DISers, I suspect the ROFR thread is the low end of the spectrum.



I agree with this, and I've often wondered how many people are posting lower prices than for what they actually bought to make themselves look better/more savvy. I would guess it's a weirdly high amount.


----------



## CastAStone

striker1064 said:


> I agree with this, and I've often wondered how many people are posting lower prices than for what they actually bought to make themselves look better/more savvy. I would guess it's a weirdly high amount.


I’m tracking actual Old Key West resales via the county so if someone does that....I’ll find you


----------



## lovethesun12

striker1064 said:


> I agree with this, and I've often wondered how many people are posting lower prices than for what they actually bought to make themselves look better/more savvy. I would guess it's a weirdly high amount.


I don't think it would be. For the resorts and contracts I'm interested in, I see a lot of them on the resale site, the ROFR thread, and sometimes check the county site... Not saying it's impossible but I don't think it's the norm.


----------



## Goddard Family Adventures

CastAStone said:


> View attachment 504042



We bought our AKL contract at $110 a point for 155 points.  It was double points.   So it has 310 points on there now and another 155 coming in February.  We just passed ROFR on Tuesday.  I thought we got a pretty good deal.  They were asking for $117 and we offered $107 and they countered at the $110.


----------



## pinkxray

Brian Noble said:


> It's not just that. I suspect some folks who don't get rock-bottom deals are hesitant to post in the ROFR thread for fear of looking like they were not savvy. Even among DISers, I suspect the ROFR thread is the low end of the spectrum.



I paid $100 a pt. for SSR for 100pt contract a few weeks ago. I almost didn’t want to post bc it’s not the best deal compared to some other here but wanted to be a data point.
I am still happy with paying a little extra because it has the Use year I really wanted and had 2020 points I can use.


----------



## bookwormde

6/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## mlayton14

I don’t see any conceivable way prices don’t drop 20-% plus over the next 6 months .. the daily numbers being reported seem like a tsunami of for-sale signs ,


----------



## bookwormde

mlayton14 said:


> I don’t see any conceivable way prices don’t drop 20-% plus over the next 6 months .. the daily numbers being reported seem like a tsunami of for-sale signs ,


While contracts for sale are up significantly,  as long as heightened demand continues, the rate at which priced decline is going to be limited. 

Historically during times of stress it has taken a year or more for demand to drop to its lowest, and resale prices to bottom.


----------



## iheartglaciers

pinkxray said:


> I paid $100 a pt. for SSR for 100pt contract a few weeks ago. I almost didn’t want to post bc it’s not the best deal compared to some other here but wanted to be a data point.
> I am still happy with paying a little extra because it has the Use year I really wanted and had 2020 points I can use.



I think it’s totally worth it to pay a little extra for the right contract (home resort, size, and UY). I almost compromised and bought an Aug UY when I really wanted an Oct UY, because I was just impatient. But I’m so glad I ended up waiting for the perfect contract. The two months make a big difference for the when we usually visit!


----------



## heynowirv

disneykim17 said:


> That's what I was thinking as well.  I was liking the prices that I saw last week between $105 and $110 per point.  I contemplated offering $108 but like I said didn't want to offend anyone.


If they're insulted they'll just say no, and then you move on to the next one.I was looking for a BWV Aug UY for months before I found what I was looking for. Keep looking it will turn up,,,eventually.


----------



## EM Lawrence

bookwormde said:


> While contracts for sale are up significantly,  as long as heightened demand continues, the rate at which priced decline is going to be limited.
> 
> Historically during times of stress it has taken a year or more for demand to drop to its lowest, and resale prices to bottom.


But is demand still high? I know the ROFR thread is just a small sample, but new postings there seem to have slowed way down.

I feel like the mood has shifted since WDW actually announced their reopening procedures.  Like cold water has been thrown on the buying fervor.  But maybe that’s just me.


----------



## CastAStone

EM Lawrence said:


> But is demand still high? I know the ROFR thread is just a small sample, but new postings there seem to have slowed way down.


The next 6-12 months will have far fewer people than usual trekking through WDW. Assuming there is some sort of lag between getting home and deciding to buy your first (or next) contract via resale, a prolonged demand slowdown wouldn’t surprise me.


----------



## bookwormde

I will be interested to see if resale no longer being the only game in town (direct sales open) will have any impact


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> The next 6-12 months will have far fewer people than usual trekking through WDW. Assuming there is some sort of lag between getting home and deciding to buy your first (or next) contract via resale, a prolonged demand slowdown wouldn’t surprise me.


Yes I am thinking that most of the people buying now were already in the market before Covid or are existing members adding on or swapping out


----------



## lovethesun12

EM Lawrence said:


> But is demand still high? I know the ROFR thread is just a small sample, but new postings there seem to have slowed way down.
> 
> I feel like the mood has shifted since WDW actually announced their reopening procedures.  Like cold water has been thrown on the buying fervor.  But maybe that’s just me.


For the resorts I'm considering (mostly BLT & Poly) demand for contracts under 120 points is high and over 150 points seems to be low. I've been watching maybe 40 contracts I'm "interested" in (use that loosely because they aren't exactly what I want) for at least a month and they aren't moving. I'm not sure if that's typical though. 

I'd really like a 100-120pt poly contract to start but I'm finding they are priced really high (and do tend to sell fast). If we could borrow right now I would have many more options. I was considering going to a 150pt contract which have much better prices, but really I don't need those points (can only get studios at poly anyway and we can't extend the length of our trip because of vacation time) so at this point I will be better off just going 100 points direct (instead of 150 points resale) and getting a few extra perks as well.


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> Yes I am thinking that most of the people buying now were already in the market before Covid or are existing members adding on or swapping out


Maybe a few newly disgruntled renters as well.... =)


----------



## bookwormde

lovethesun12 said:


> Maybe a few newly disgruntled renters as well.... =)


Yes I think that is and will be a significant factor going forward


----------



## Brianstl

lovethesun12 said:


> Maybe a few newly disgruntled renters as well.... =)


My guess is as many (if not more) renters will be completely turned off by anything DVC now as that would be interested in buying DVC.  Our end of September rental was originally supposed to be the test ride before we bought.  Now while I still want to buy at the right price, my wife doesn’t because of all of the uncertainty involved.  I’m hoping the trip will help nudge her into at least a more neutral position, but who knows at this point how that will actually play out.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

It's incredibly difficult to predict what will happen as there are so many moving parts. An effective treatment could be found tomorrow or we could be dealing with covid for years.  
Anyone buying should be doing it with a long term view and should be willing to accept that prices could go significantly lower than what they buy in at.  
I'm not going to try and guess the market bottom.  I'll buy when I feel that the price is simply too good to pass on.


----------



## lovethesun12

Brianstl said:


> My guess is as many (if not more) renters will be completely turned off by anything DVC now as that would be interested in buying DVC.  Our end of September rental was originally supposed to be the test ride before we bought.  Now while I still want to buy at the right price, my wife doesn’t because of all of the uncertainty involved.  I’m hoping the trip will help nudge her into at least a more neutral position, but who knows at this point how that will actually play out.


I’m not sure. I sort of think disgruntled renters like me are part of the reason smaller contracts are flying off the shelves - a large group of people who don’t want to rent 11 months out anymore but want a trip booked.

We want to book our next trip, which we usually do August/Sept. If I book through renting, it will cost $4900 but I never want to take that risk again. 

If I book cash, it’s $6900 (I do realize this will probably be discounted but it will still be a significant amount for the stay). Now cash *is* much less risk. But do I really want to pay $6900 (or the amount with discount) for a cash stay when I could buy the 100 points for under $15000 and have trips(100 points would be part of our trip - would have to add on) for 45 more years? I could wait for prices to drop, but really in the end if I pay cash for the next trip the savings won’t be worth it. Or I can buy direct (if I can’t find a good contract) and get savings on tickets/dining/merchandise.

If our trip can’t go ahead next year, I can also bank points and/or reschedule.


----------



## Heather07438

iheartglaciers said:


> I think it’s totally worth it to pay a little extra for the right contract (home resort, size, and UY). I almost compromised and bought an Aug UY when I really wanted an Oct UY, because I was just impatient. But I’m so glad I ended up waiting for the perfect contract. The two months make a big difference for the when we usually visit!


That makes sense.  If you really look at it, what's an extra $5pp?  $500 on a 100pt contract and that could possibly make planning trips so much easier for the next 20, 30 or 40 yrs.  $500/30 yrs is less than $20/yr.  That not alot of money for the peace of mind it can offer.


----------



## Hoosier John

Why are renters disgruntled?  Did they not either get their money back, or get a replacement reservation booked in its place?

We rented a stay out, and it has been re-booked for a third time now.  First was a hurricane threatening (my family just used the booking), second was medical illness, and now we have it booked for them next May.  Quite a bit of extra work on our part, but I feel it was only fair.


----------



## lovethesun12

Hoosier John said:


> Why are renters disgruntled?  Did they not either get their money back, or get a replacement reservation booked in its place?
> 
> We rented a stay out, and it has been re-booked for a third time now.  First was a hurricane threatening (my family just used the booking), second was medical illness, and now we have it booked for them next May.  Quite a bit of extra work on our part, but I feel it was only fair.


Remember that on this board, you only hear experiences from approved sites.


----------



## Hoosier John

lovethesun12 said:


> Remember that on this board, you only hear experiences from approved sites.


Oh, that's right, I didn't even think about going through rental companies.  That's probably the majority of rentals.  So I guess some families lost money going this route?

We just post an ad here on DISboards and wait for an interested family.  Has worked pretty well for us, but we don't rent a lot.


----------



## lovethesun12

Hoosier John said:


> Oh, that's right, I didn't even think about going through rental companies.  That's probably the majority of rentals.  So I guess some families lost money going this route?
> 
> We just post an ad here on DISboards and wait for an interested family.  Has worked pretty well for us, but we don't rent a lot.


Yes, it seems to have worked for some renters with owners who were willing/able to reschedule  

Renting was nice in the past but many paid a hefty amount to realize the risk of not having control over your own reservation.


----------



## bookwormde

6/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120-130% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

6/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

For the week of 6/22 to 6/28 newly posted resale contracts at about 210-220% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

Brianstl said:


> My guess is as many (if not more) renters will be completely turned off by anything DVC now as that would be interested in buying DVC.  Our end of September rental was originally supposed to be the test ride before we bought.  Now while I still want to buy at the right price, my wife doesn’t because of all of the uncertainty involved.  I’m hoping the trip will help nudge her into at least a more neutral position, but who knows at this point how that will actually play out.



I'm selling both of our DVC contracts.  Just not worth the hassle.  Worse yet, DVC are extremely expensive accommodations.  I do not see enough of a value to justify the cost of ownership.


----------



## CastAStone

iflyjetzzz said:


> I'm selling both of our DVC contracts.  Just not worth the hassle.  Worse yet, DVC are extremely expensive accommodations.  I do not see enough of a value to justify the cost of ownership.


So, I'm curious, you just bought in a few months ago, right? What part of it are you finding not worth the hassle? As someone looking at buying I'm curious what you found that made you change your mind so quickly.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

CastAStone said:


> So, I'm curious, you just bought in a few months ago, right? What part of it are you finding not worth the hassle? As someone looking at buying I'm curious what you found that made you change your mind so quickly.



My mind didn't change quickly.  It took a decent amount of time.  A decent amount of wasted time chasing all of this DVC stuff.  I've sunk more time into this upcoming trip than any other vacation I've taken.  And in the end, it is just not worth the hassle.  I have no desire to be tied down to a Disney vacation and all of the requisite planning in the future.  I finally understand why so many people hate the mouse.
And that doesn't even account for the costs associated with DVC - it is overpriced.


----------



## ldo

IMHO, buying a smaller (resale) contract is the way to go for people who want to regularly stay at DVC, even EOY. You can control your reservation. I have rebooked about 10 times the past month! It's not perfect and DVC people without tickets and those who might lose points are pretty mad. But, it's so much better than most options! You can also get points transferred into your account from others for bigger trips (granted usually at a rental price) and control/rebook those points as well.


----------



## sethschroeder

I think we will see a dip in pricing more so at the end of the year. I think what might help rebound the market though its people buying their 3rd/4th/5th contract who upgraded their trip in 2021. Might be doing a 2BR with kids instead of the 1BR, might be an extended stay for Friday to following Sunday instead of Saturday to Saturday.

These people now possibly got a taste of something they are willing to buy another contract for since the prices are reduced.


----------



## sethschroeder

lovethesun12 said:


> I’m not sure. I sort of think disgruntled renters like me are part of the reason smaller contracts are flying off the shelves - a large group of people who don’t want to rent 11 months out anymore but want a trip booked.
> 
> We want to book our next trip, which we usually do August/Sept. If I book through renting, it will cost $4900 but I never want to take that risk again.
> 
> If I book cash, it’s $6900 (I do realize this will probably be discounted but it will still be a significant amount for the stay). Now cash *is* much less risk. But do I really want to pay $6900 (or the amount with discount) for a cash stay when I could buy the 100 points for under $15000 and have trips(100 points would be part of our trip - would have to add on) for 45 more years? I could wait for prices to drop, but really in the end if I pay cash for the next trip the savings won’t be worth it. Or I can buy direct (if I can’t find a good contract) and get savings on tickets/dining/merchandise.
> 
> If our trip can’t go ahead next year, I can also bank points and/or reschedule.



Never even really thought of the renters until this. It makes sense we might actually see an uptick in resale. Everyone I think is forgetting we are about 12-16 months out from the start of the 50th events starting to kick off at WDW.


----------



## lovethesun12

sethschroeder said:


> I will just say BCV is actually less than Savannah View at AKV in DVC.





lovethesun12 said:


> At 7 months out with AKV points?
> 
> If you're trying to convince me to buy DVC DARN IT IT'S WORKING!!!!! Do you know how weak my heart is for Disney? LOL
> 
> PS - are you in sales? I'll take 1 BCV, 1 AKV and throw in a POLY





sethschroeder said:


> Never even really thought of the renters until this. It makes sense we might actually see an uptick in resale. Everyone I think is forgetting we are about 12-16 months out from the start of the 50th events starting to kick off at WDW.


Also, we have you convincing people to buy DVC; maybe that plays a role


----------



## holyrita

Wasn't really sure which of the threads in "Purchasing DVC" to post in, so I picked this one  

Out of boredom I've been searching recorded deeds on the Orange County comptroller website and am seeing some *outrageous* deals. Examples:

$47 per point for AKV
$86 per point for Boardwalk (a 25 point contract no less!)

What's going on here?! I quickly stopped browsing, to stop myself from feeling bad about my own resale contract deal


----------



## deedubb

holyrita said:


> Wasn't really sure which of the threads in "Purchasing DVC" to post in, so I picked this one
> 
> Out of boredom I've been searching recorded deeds on the Orange County comptroller website and am seeing some *outrageous* deals. Examples:
> 
> $47 per point for AKV
> $86 per point for Boardwalk (a 25 point contract no less!)
> 
> What's going on here?! I quickly stopped browsing, to stop myself from feeling bad about my own resale contract deal


Probably buyatimeshare.com.  I saw a BWV one that sold for $60/point.  Must be someone who knows nothing about selling DVC and has never heard of Google.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

I'd like to know how to find a deal like that.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

I think the DVC points are going to drop by around 20 percent. I dont think we will see prices like 2011 anytime in the near future.


----------



## TCRAIG

holyrita said:


> Wasn't really sure which of the threads in "Purchasing DVC" to post in, so I picked this one
> 
> Out of boredom I've been searching recorded deeds on the Orange County comptroller website and am seeing some *outrageous* deals. Examples:
> 
> $47 per point for AKV
> $86 per point for Boardwalk (a 25 point contract no less!)
> 
> What's going on here?! I quickly stopped browsing, to stop myself from feeling bad about my own resale contract deal


I wonder if these are ‘family’ sales?


----------



## CastAStone

holyrita said:


> Wasn't really sure which of the threads in "Purchasing DVC" to post in, so I picked this one
> 
> Out of boredom I've been searching recorded deeds on the Orange County comptroller website and am seeing some *outrageous* deals. Examples:
> 
> $47 per point for AKV
> $86 per point for Boardwalk (a 25 point contract no less!)
> 
> What's going on here?! I quickly stopped browsing, to stop myself from feeling bad about my own resale contract deal


I’m not sure outrageous deals are totally unusual, some people are just clueless. But Disney usually ROFRs them and right now they aren’t.

Could these also be coming from the foreclosure route?


----------



## holyrita

TCRAIG said:


> I wonder if these are ‘family’ sales?


I also wondered if these could be sales between friends or families 



CastAStone said:


> I’m not sure outrageous deals are totally unusual, some people are just clueless. But Disney usually ROFRs them and right now they aren’t.
> 
> Could these also be coming from the foreclosure route?



I came across a few of those and their contracts looked very different, these were standard contracts, AKV was Magic Title and BWV was Timeshare Closing Services (haven't heard of this one)


----------



## JoshF

holyrita said:


> Wasn't really sure which of the threads in "Purchasing DVC" to post in, so I picked this one
> 
> Out of boredom I've been searching recorded deeds on the Orange County comptroller website and am seeing some *outrageous* deals. Examples:
> 
> $47 per point for AKV
> $86 per point for Boardwalk (a 25 point contract no less!)
> 
> What's going on here?! I quickly stopped browsing, to stop myself from feeling bad about my own resale contract deal


What terms do you need to enter in the search field there?  This sounds fun!


----------



## sethschroeder

JoshF said:


> What terms do you need to enter in the search field there?  This sounds fun!



Search by legal description under advanced which is the resort name.


----------



## CastAStone

holyrita said:


> I came across a few of those and their contracts looked very different, these were standard contracts, AKV was Magic Title and BWV was Timeshare Closing Services (haven't heard of this one)


Ah okay. The BWV one matches the price on a “sold” contract on the site @deedubb mentioned. Not a chance in **** I would buy from that site without being able to pick my own title agency. They don’t even tell you how many points are available. But they do have some deals (e.g. $76 per point for a 200 point SSR contract right now)


----------



## tweetykl

We had a rental. We were supposed to be at BCV right now. We went through a company. We were about to lose $8000.  They did end up giving us a voucher for future use. That was not guaranteed because there is a no cancellation clause.  i will be very weary of renting. I want to be in control of my vacation, which is not how I have felt during the last few months but no one could have predicted in October that this would happen.


Hoosier John said:


> Why are renters disgruntled?  Did they not either get their money back, or get a replacement reservation booked in its place?
> 
> We rented a stay out, and it has been re-booked for a third time now.  First was a hurricane threatening (my family just used the booking), second was medical illness, and now we have it booked for them next May.  Quite a bit of extra work on our part, but I feel it was only fair.


----------



## bookwormde

6/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260-280% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Brian Noble

holyrita said:


> BWV was Timeshare Closing Services


That's a back-of-house transfer agent that closes transactions for a number of closely related timeshare exit businesses whose names are constantly changing. The general business model: they pressure distressed or unhappy timeshare owners into paying an upfront fee to "free themselves from the never-ending burden of maintenance fees" or some such hogwash. What happens after that varies with the specific model. The most common is to transfer it to a "viking ship" business--it collects these deeds, never pays anything on them, ignores collections notices, extracts as much cash as it can for as long as they can, and eventually bankrupts the shell company before forming another one and starting over. Along the way, they try to sell anything that might have some value--there are a few storefronts for this, but most of the more marginal ones end up on ebay. If they sell, fine, if not no worries. The selling price is less important than just selling them, because it allows them to avoid racking up debt if they can flip the deeds quickly. They also collect the fees via Timeshare Closing Services, but that's just icing.

A few are even less scrupulous and never actually transfer the deed but instead get a power of attorney. If they are able to flip something, it will get transferred using that POA (eventually), but maybe after another year goes by with unpaid fees.



CastAStone said:


> Not a chance in **** I would buy from that site without being able to pick my own title agency.


I've picked up a couple of timeshares going this route. They will not close with anyone else, and don't mind if you walk because of it---after all, selling is just a convenience, not actually something that is core to the business model. *If you know what you are doing*, it can be a good deal, but you have to know what you are doing. The listings are often wrong and you have to read the deeds carefully and know how the underlying resort actually works. But, because they are so sloppy, they have to sell at a lower price to move anything at all. Caveat emptor.

The timeshare industry has more than its fair share of shady businesses as part of its ecosystem. It makes a certain amount of sense, if you think about how someone typically becomes a timeshare owner in the first  place.


----------



## Brian Noble

One interesting side-effect of the cancellation "industry" is that it has encouraged the larger developers to create a viable route for owners to divest themselves from a timeshare they no longer want. After all, dealing with the Viking ships is a real PITA. Wyndham, for example, will take back a fully-paid deed at resorts for which they are the manager. If you were the original purchaser, you get an extra three years of (limited) use. if you bought resale, you don't but it also doesn't cost you anything. Most of these do have some residual value, but it's often worth doing a deedback in exchange for the simplicity and certainty of it all rather than try to sell it to someone else for a dime on the dollar (or less).


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

holyrita said:


> ... seeing some *outrageous* deals. Examples:
> 
> *$47 per point for AKV*





I need to find one of those outrageous AKV contracts!  Time to start making some lowball offers.


----------



## Orion Nebula

My wife has been rabidly watching the listings / sales and it's been pretty amazing how quickly they are being moved to "pending". We are really on the fence right now as we have considered buying for a few years. It's almost like if we don't... in a year or two we will be kicking ourselves. It's been really tough making a decision! 

Anyone else on the fence?


----------



## tweetykl

We were on the fence and just went for it. 





Orion Nebula said:


> My wife has been rabidly watching the listings / sales and it's been pretty amazing how quickly they are being moved to "pending". We are really on the fence right now as we have considered buying for a few years. It's almost like if we don't... in a year or two we will be kicking ourselves. It's been really tough making a decision!
> 
> Anyone else on the fence?


----------



## E2ME2

Orion Nebula said:


> My wife has been rabidly watching the listings / sales and it's been pretty amazing how quickly they are being moved to "pending". We are really on the fence right now as we have considered buying for a few years. It's almost like if we don't... in a year or two we will be kicking ourselves. It's been really tough making a decision!
> 
> Anyone else on the fence?


I live on that fence-
We bought direct in 201o
Added on direct in 2018
Added on Resale in 2020
& Back on the fence, watching the prices with you.
To-date my only regrets were not buying more point, and not buying sooner.
This year, however, has thrown a monkey wrench into the works.
Who knows if my latest purchase will prove to be a wise move??
But, holding out hope for 2021, I am still watching the market prices........ 
ET


----------



## EM Lawrence

I’m watching prices, but something really amazing would have to come up to tempt me to buy right now.  I’m in agreement with others that there will be a dip in prices at the end of the year before MF come due.


----------



## emilymad

I am in the watching group.  I think prices will drop.  I don't think we have seen the full impact on the economy yet.  At my work we haven't had any impact...yet...  The general thought is that they are waiting until next year for layoffs from a PR standpoint.  If that were to happen lots of people who are ok now may need to sell.


----------



## Orion Nebula

emilymad said:


> I am in the watching group.  I think prices will drop.  I don't think we have seen the full impact on the economy yet.



When do you predict they could drop even more? Early 2021? We already have a trip booked but then we are looking at all that cash thinking it could've went towards DVC and then of course if we bought one with points left we could still go.


----------



## CastAStone

Orion Nebula said:


> When do you predict they could drop even more? Early 2021? We already have a trip booked but then we are looking at all that cash thinking it could've went towards DVC and then of course if we bought one with points left we could still go.


I think most people who are predicting a decline think will start in earnest towards the end of this year or early next year. But don’t expect prices to freefall. If they do decline, it’s much more likely it will happen at a measured pace over time.


----------



## emilymad

Orion Nebula said:


> When do you predict they could drop even more? Early 2021? We already have a trip booked but then we are looking at all that cash thinking it could've went towards DVC and then of course if we bought one with points left we could still go.



I have no basis for my predictions but I feel like everything, including WDW trips, are in a holding pattern until we see what happens.  Right now dues have been paid, maybe people have trips booked, jobs are a wait and see.  If I didn't have to sell a contract I would wait it out and see what happens. Once MF are due it gets a little more serious for people.  I personally don't have a time frame but a price I think it would be fair to pay.  Maybe we hit that number, maybe we don't....

I also think reservation availability is going to get really tight in the next few years.  Between lots of people are sitting on points and the 50th coming up I am personally not betting on being able to get the exact reservation I may want.

I am looking for a stripped contract at the right price.  Extra points do me personally no good right now.


----------



## RanDIZ

It seems like price drops have slowed or stopped. March and April were the panic selling months where some good deals could be had. There’s less inventory now which seems to be bumping prices back up.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

RanDIZ said:


> It seems like price drops have slowed or stopped. March and April were the panic selling months where some good deals could be had. There’s less inventory now which seems to be bumping prices back up.


It was interesting to watch what was listed during that time.  It seemed to be heavy on SSR and OKW which makes me think it was largely people unloading their "sleep around points" instead of people that really needed to sell.

I feel like we've already seen the bottom or it gets way way worse from here.  We'll probably have a good idea later this year after the $600/week unemployment benefits have expired and we're back to the "new normal" whatever that looks like.


----------



## Brianstl

RanDIZ said:


> It seems like price drops have slowed or stopped. March and April were the panic selling months where some good deals could be had. There’s less inventory now which seems to be bumping prices back up.


It appears that the sales volume has dropped, at least compared to what we normally see in this thread.  I think both sellers and buyers have both pulled back.  On yesterday's The DVC Show Jerry mentioned that buyers are really trying to hammer down prices right now, but sellers are not desperate right now either.  I don't think it is so much that buyers are trying to hammer down prices.  I think it is more that buyers are offering what they are willing to spend given the current economic situation and I don't see a increase on what they are willing to pay coming soon.  If anything I think the majority of the offers are going to start going even lower.  I think that means we are going to be left with a very low volume of resale sales for the next few months until sellers get tired of waiting to sell or have to sell.  The overall demand just isn't there to buy at the current prices and owners don't feel a need yet to sell at a lower price.


----------



## lovethesun12

Brianstl said:


> It appears that the sales volume has dropped, at least compared to what we normally see in this thread.  I think both sellers and buyers have both pulled back.  On yesterday's The DVC Show Jerry mentioned that buyers are really trying to hammer down prices right now, but sellers are not desperate right now either.  I don't think it is so much that buyers are trying to hammer down prices.  I think it is more that buyers are offering what they are willing to spend given the current economic situation and I don't see a increase on what they are willing to pay coming soon.  If anything I think the majority of the offers are going to start going even lower.  I think that means we are going to be left with a very low volume of resale sales for the next few months until sellers get tired of waiting to sell or have to sell.  The overall demand just isn't there to buy at the current prices and owners don't feel a need yet to sell at a lower price.


I think you nailed it.


----------



## DVC Doctor

Brianstl said:


> The overall demand just isn't there to buy at the current prices and owners don't feel a need yet to sell at a lower price.



Wait until the annual dues statements go out


----------



## Heather07438

We were ready to buy our first contract.  Not anymore.  Unless something glamorous comes along, we are now in no hurry.  There's more possible con's than pro's for us.

I think prices are likely to go lower before they ever start increasing again.  So why lock in now with so much uncertainty?
The perks of DVC just aren't as valuable for the time being.
Availability could be tense over the next 12-30 months.
WDW reminded us that being a cash guest can have huge advantages over DVC.

It doesn't feel like we're missing out on much right now. Membership is still a likely goal, just not a priority anytime soon.


----------



## MamaBear12

Orion Nebula said:


> My wife has been rabidly watching the listings / sales and it's been pretty amazing how quickly they are being moved to "pending". We are really on the fence right now as we have considered buying for a few years. It's almost like if we don't... in a year or two we will be kicking ourselves. It's been really tough making a decision!
> 
> Anyone else on the fence?


We’re on the fence. I’ve wanted to buy for the last 5 years, but we weren’t in a position to until the last year or so. Now we’re ready to buy, but due to current uncertainty we’re not going to dive in yet. I think we’ll end up buying later this year, but not until there’s either a decent price drop or some idea of what the future of Covid and resort availability will look like.


----------



## bookwormde

6/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240-250% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Orion Nebula

bookwormde said:


> 6/30 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240-250% of average*



Wow, I noticed some not so great deals on many that don't seem to be moving. I guess the sellers just have wishful thinking.


----------



## DaveNan

Orion Nebula said:


> Wow, I noticed some not so great deals on many that don't seem to be moving. I guess the sellers just have wishful thinking.


Maybe the brokers are telling the sellers how strong the market is too.


----------



## Hopfather28

I was one of the lucky ones to pick up a panic sell in early May. I have one of three contracts at $120pp for Poly over in the ROFR thread. I do believe we haven't seen the end of the drops but the fact that prices have stabilized or in many cases rebounded some tells me the staying power of DVC is real.  The next 18 months at Disney are definitely going to be very different but much like airlines and banks...Disney is "too big to fail." 

The way I see it is if the park reservations I've made for my 2021 vacation really are needed then there is reduced capacity which is good. If they aren't, then we are back to some sense of normalcy which is good. Just gotta be positive at this point in time. At least the castle won't be a birthday cake for the 50th.


----------



## lovethesun12

Hopfather28 said:


> I was one of the lucky ones to pick up a panic sell in early May. I have one of three contracts at $120pp for Poly over in the ROFR thread. I do believe we haven't seen the end of the drops but the fact that prices have stabilized or in many cases rebounded some tells me the staying power of DVC is real.  The next 18 months at Disney are definitely going to be very different but much like airlines and banks...Disney is "too big to fail."
> 
> The way I see it is if the park reservations I've made for my 2021 vacation really are needed then there is reduced capacity which is good. If they aren't, then we are back to some sense of normalcy which is good. Just gotta be positive at this point in time. At least the castle won't be a birthday cake for the 50th.


I remember when you were in the market for that contract because it's similar to what I'm looking for. May I ask what the listed price was for your contract?


----------



## Hopfather28

lovethesun12 said:


> I remember when you were in the market for that contract because it's similar to what I'm looking for. May I ask what the listed price was for your contract?


Listed at $148. I had put a top dollar of $130 and offered $120 expecting some negotiations. Seller accepted in 5 minutes.


----------



## lovethesun12

Hopfather28 said:


> Listed at $148. I had put a top dollar of $130 and offered $120 expecting some negotiations. Seller accepted in 5 minutes.


That's awesome! Thanks for sharing =)


----------



## manicstreet

Hopfather28 said:


> Listed at $148. I had put a top dollar of $130 and offered $120 expecting some negotiations. Seller accepted in 5 minutes.



Amazing! This is a deal i am hoping to score this fall. We will see.


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15, 5/31 and 6/30 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for some resorts is getting small, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20 above the average are impacting the averages



Reduced

……3/31                4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31       6/30         



AKV       110         109         109         104         96           ND         

AUL        97           93           92           96           93           93          

BLT         144         146         146         145         145         144         

BCV        138         137         140         142         143         136         

BWV      118         118         116         114         113         114         

BRV        100         ND          94           94           94           94          

CCV        148         150         150         148         128         146        

VGF       168         168         168         168         166         166        

HH          74           74           74           74           73           71          

OKW      95           94           93           93           92           93          

POLY      143         144         144         144         142         145        

SS           102         98           101         101         102         100        

VB          62           62           63           63           65           66


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15, 5/31 and 6/30 for each resort for pending contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price si large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31                4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31       6/30                         



AKV       109         108         109         109         109         110       

AUL        96           97           97           96           97           95         

BLT         137         141         144         143         143         144       

BCV        140         138         140         140         138         140       

BWV      118         121         121         120         119         120       

BRV        98           98           97           97           98           99         

CCV        147         147         150         151         151         150        

VGF       164         163         161         163         165         163        

HH          75           76           75           78           76           75         

OKW      93           93           93           92           94           94         

POLY      146         146         146         146         146         149       

SS           101         101         102         102         101         102       

VB          71           67           67           67           68           66


----------



## bookwormde

7/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 360-380% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
.
I will add June from the reseller when it is available as well as updating DIS ROFR for June on 8/1

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 ...........................6/1 ….............…...…7/1 ..............8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[103] 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[84] 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[127] 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[135] 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[105] 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97] 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137] 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[142] 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[ND] 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99] 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[143] 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[94] 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND] 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly


----------



## JoshF

Can you please explain so I understand this more.  Here was for AUL: "85(88)[84] 82 80"

What are the 5 numbers?

Thanks!


----------



## bookwormde

JoshF said:


> Can you please explain so I understand this more.  Here was for AUL: "85(88)[84] 82 80"
> 
> What are the 5 numbers?
> 
> Thanks!


last 2 numbers are my original guesses for 8/1 and 9/1 7/1 is still missing the data from the reseller that published their data


----------



## bookwormde

7/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 360-380% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## gisele2

Small PVB 130$/pt. on sale this morning.


----------



## Noah_t

bookwormde said:


> I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
> .
> I will add June from the reseller when it is available as well as updating DIS ROFR for June on 8/1
> 
> Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}
> 
> .........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 ...........................6/1 ….............…...…7/1 ..............8/1 9/1
> 
> AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[103] 92 90
> 
> AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[84] 82 80
> 
> BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[127] 124 124
> 
> BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[135] 130 128
> 
> BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[105] 103 100
> 
> BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97] 76 72
> 
> CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137] 125
> 
> VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[142] 160 158
> 
> HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[ND] 62 60
> 
> OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99] 72 70
> 
> POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[143] 120 120
> 
> SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[94] 82 80
> 
> VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND] 48
> 
> 
> 
> *over 50% less than 100 pts
> 
> The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly



Wow.  Is that ever scary for someone who's in the process of buying.  We were just about to pull the trigger on a copper creek but my wife was dragging her heels.   I now have to admit to her she was TOTALLY right and walk away.  The debate about if prices are falling really needs to be shifted to when have we seen the bottom.


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
> .
> I will add June from the reseller when it is available as well as updating DIS ROFR for June on 8/1
> 
> Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}
> 
> .........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 ...........................6/1 ….............…...…7/1 ..............8/1 9/1
> 
> AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[103] 92 90
> 
> AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[84] 82 80
> 
> BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[127] 124 124
> 
> BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[135] 130 128
> 
> BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[105] 103 100
> 
> BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97] 76 72
> 
> CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137] 125
> 
> VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[142] 160 158
> 
> HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[ND] 62 60
> 
> OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99] 72 70
> 
> POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[143] 120 120
> 
> SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[94] 82 80
> 
> VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND] 48
> 
> 
> 
> *over 50% less than 100 pts
> 
> The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly


Well if nothing else, those that follow the ROFR thread are on track to get some of the deals predicted in September! LOL. Who cares about what those other average prices are doing  .


----------



## lovethesun12

gisele2 said:


> Small PVB 130$/pt. on sale this morning.


I bet the person that might have this one is DYING of happiness at the moment


----------



## linzjane88

So, if we keep having weeks where the amount of listed contracts are 150-300% more than average, it's maybe a correct to assume a sea of contracts will eventually bring prices down?


----------



## Captain Trips

First, bookwormde This is definitely a great thread and I appreciate the work that goes into it. Having just agreed to my first contract, I’ve been watching a lot of resale sites. From what I’ve seen most listings are for mostly stripped contracts. Fully loaded contracts are holding better value and selling much quicker. I wonder how much the stripped contracts are affecting average prices.  If you’re not planning on using points right away it’s probably a good time to be in market.


----------



## lovethesun12

Captain Trips said:


> First, bookwormde This is definitely a great thread and I appreciate the work that goes into it. Having just agreed to my first contract, I’ve been watching a lot of resale sites. From what I’ve seen most listings are for mostly stripped contracts. Fully loaded contracts are holding better value and selling much quicker. I wonder how much the stripped contracts are affecting average prices.  If you’re not planning on using points right away it’s probably a good time to be in market.


Personally I think the issue right now with stripped contracts is that you can only borrow 50% of points from the next use year. It makes a huge difference for anyone who wants to travel in the current use year.


----------



## Captain Trips

lovethesun12 said:


> Personally I think the issue right now with stripped contracts is that you can only borrow 50% of points from the next use year. It makes a huge difference for anyone who wants to travel in the current use year.



That was a big reason why I went with a loaded contract. I didn’t want to go into ownership borrowing right away. On top of that I believe reservations will be harder to come by and didn’t want to be limited by my lack of points.


----------



## limace

I’d actually be more OK with a stripped contract right now as I think it’s probably safest and easiest to just wait a year or so to travel.

Captaintrips-you have the most pandemic-y user name ever!


----------



## Captain Trips

limace said:


> I’d actually be more OK with a stripped contract right now as I think it’s probably safest and easiest to just wait a year or so to travel.
> 
> Captaintrips-you have the most pandemic-y user name ever!



It’s definitely a matter of preference. I plan to go next year so a stripped contract was not ideal for me.

My user name is a reference to Jerry Garcia not the Stephen king book. However, this may be a good time to check it out.


----------



## limace

I live in the home of the Grateful Dead so should know that-sadly, not a fan. But the book is great


----------



## Captain Trips

I will have to pick it up. Plenty of time to read in this social distancing era.


----------



## mlayton14

I don’t think anyone should overthink this , if I’m reading the numbers correctly there are double to triple number  of contracts YOY hitting the market in very uncertain economic times , there is no real driver to meet that demand, and prices will probably fall significantly, am I missing something at the macro level?
One more thing - one artificial demand driver (Disney ROFR) has been eliminated


----------



## G.C.

gisele2 said:


> Small PVB 130$/pt. on sale this morning.


I saw that too, but it is gone this morning.  Not “pending,” just looks pulled unless I missed something. I wonder what that was all about.


----------



## Nabas

mlayton14 said:


> I don’t think anyone should overthink this , if I’m reading the numbers correctly there are double to triple number  of contracts YOY hitting the market in very uncertain economic times , there is no real driver to meet that demand, and prices will probably fall significantly, am I missing something at the macro level?
> One more thing - one artificial demand driver (Disney ROFR) has been eliminated


We also need to take into consideration the depth and length of the economic downturn, which is always difficult to forecast.

There is a bit of panic selling at the moment, but that could change next year.

In 12 months, we could be back to normal or it could be even worse, if an effective vaccine is not available.

Recall that in the 2008 crash, DVC prices didn't bottom out until 2010 and 2011.  We're just at the start of this.


----------



## E2ME2

CastAStone said:


> I think most people who are predicting a decline think will start in earnest towards the end of this year or early next year. But don’t expect prices to freefall. If they do decline, it’s much more likely it will happen at a measured pace over time.


I think the pattern will continue, and prices will be lowest in January & February of 2021.
I bought resale in Feb. 2020, and it was as low as most others I've seen through this virus crisis. ($88.89/Point at SSR)
It will be interesting to see if park reopening is successful, and if that helps buoy the prices into 2021.


----------



## JETSDAD

mlayton14 said:


> I don’t think anyone should overthink this , if I’m reading the numbers correctly there are double to triple number  of contracts YOY hitting the market in very uncertain economic times , there is no real driver to meet that demand, and prices will probably fall significantly, am I missing something at the macro level?
> One more thing - one artificial demand driver (Disney ROFR) has been eliminated


I don't think the numbers are a YOY comparison but rather a comparison to an average from a random set of dates (the 6 months before Covid hit if I recall correctly). It's also on a daily basis rather than an average of say a month.  On any given day you can see a group of listings hit the market or you can see next to nothing.  Without averaging that over the course of some period of time it can give a very skewed picture (either way).  It also doesn't take into account the rate at which the listings sell.  If a lot of new listings are showing up but they are also selling then you're not going to see a significant drop in pricing.  Now if there are many new listings every day and far fewer contracts being sold, then you may see a decline in pricing.


----------



## poofyo101

It actually seems like despite the amount of new listings, the amount of available listings is still less than it use to be.


----------



## bookwormde

7/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180-200% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

7/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 30-40% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

7/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*

For the week of 6/29 to 7/5 newly posted resale contracts at about 230% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

dvcresalemarket reporting a 3rd month in a row with no ROFR actions taken by Disney:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-june-20-report/


----------



## _Iowa_

Starport Seven-Five said:


> dvcresalemarket reporting a 3rd month in a row with no ROFR actions taken by Disney:
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-june-20-report/


With two contracts currently in ROFR at what I think are decent prices I hope it stays that way for another month+

From what I have learned, they typically scoop up 10-20%. Is that correct? Based on the ROFR thread we're definitely in that range but I think given the current climate we should have a good chance of getting through on both.


----------



## sethschroeder

linzjane88 said:


> So, if we keep having weeks where the amount of listed contracts are 150-300% more than average, it's maybe a correct to assume a sea of contracts will eventually bring prices down?



I don't think this can be correctly assumed. For a while listed contracts were lower than average, we would also need to know what average number of contracts go up typically (is a 10% in resale contracts normal). More importantly what is being listed.




bookwormde said:


> 7/5 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-120% of average*
> 
> For the week of 6/22 to 6/28 newly posted resale contracts at about 230% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.



Is there any potential to report more sporadically the breakdown of listed contracts vs average for individual resorts? Could Aulani, SSR, and OKW be skewing the numbers? Is there an influx of 2042 because there is more elderly owners possibly and thus do not want to travel in the coming years to Disney?


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> I don't think this can be correctly assumed. For a while listed contracts were lower than average, we would also need to know what average number of contracts go up typically (is a 10% in resale contracts normal). More importantly what is being listed.
> 
> 
> 
> 
> Is there any potential to report more sporadically the breakdown of listed contracts vs average for individual resorts? Could Aulani, SSR, and OKW be skewing the numbers? Is there an influx of 2042 because there is more elderly owners possibly and thus do not want to travel in the coming years to Disney?


The number of contracts currently listed seems lower than say the 90 day moving average, but significantly higher than a month ago when resorts as large as AKL just couldn’t be found on a few of the major sites. I can look at my tracking today to see what’s popping as far as resorts, but bookworm’s tracking is much more comprehensive than mine is.


----------



## heynowirv

bookwormde said:


> Yes I am thinking that most of the people buying now were already in the market before Covid or are existing members adding on or swapping out


I have been stalking BWV to add on to my OKW for several months so I definitely fall into that category.


----------



## bookwormde

[/QUOTE]
Is there any potential to report more sporadically the breakdown of listed contracts vs average for individual resorts? Could Aulani, SSR, and OKW be skewing the numbers? Is there an influx of 2042 because there is more elderly owners possibly and thus do not want to travel in the coming years to Disney?
[/QUOTE]

While there is variation, in general there is alignment between new listings and number of points at each resort, with that said, Aul and Poly do appear to be higher and BCV, BWV and BRV are lower.


----------



## sethschroeder

Interesting so possibly people are selling off excess contracts and keeping their lower point/stay resorts. Possibly they also are cashing in on more expensive resorts "before the market crashed" where they know they want to keep 150 but sell 150.

Also with AUL and POLY if you had purchased direct when your kids were 6-12 you would now have an empty nest and possibly people are dropping those points in preparation for not traveling for the next couple years.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> The number of contracts currently listed seems lower than say the 90 day moving average, but significantly higher than a month ago when resorts as large as AKL just couldn’t be found on a few of the major sites. I can look at my tracking today to see what’s popping as far as resorts, but bookworm’s tracking is much more comprehensive than mine is.


There are definitely less AKV available, apparently from strong demand.

We may be slightly below the number of active listings from 90 days ago, but the trend over the last month has been a small increase in active contracts, which if it continues for a few more weeks will put us above where we were. My overall coutract tracking is partly direct numeric tracking and part "impression" from those resellers that are not induced on my spreadsheets

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ is one of the easiest to follow by checking the active listing only box in the refine you results by section


----------



## bookwormde

sethschroeder said:


> Interesting so possibly people are selling off excess contracts and keeping their lower point/stay resorts. Possibly they also are cashing in on more expensive resorts "before the market crashed" where they know they want to keep 150 but sell 150.
> 
> Also with AUL and POLY if you had purchased direct when your kids were 6-12 you would now have an empty nest and possibly people are dropping those points in preparation for not traveling for the next couple years.


I have noticed that there have been a signification number of owners selling multiple contracts (same resort, UY ,listed the same day), while 2, 3, or 4 is the most common, I have seen a few where 2x that number are being listed at the same time.


----------



## Captain Trips

bookwormde said:


> There are definitely less AKV available, apparently from strong demand.
> 
> We may be slightly below the number of active listings from 90 days ago, but the trend over the last month has been a small increase in active contracts, which if it continues for a few more weeks will put us above where we were. My overall coutract tracking is partly direct numeric tracking and part "impression" from those resellers that are not induced on my spreadsheets
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/ is one of the easiest to follow by checking the active listing only box in the refine you results by section



I’ve definitely seen the demand for animal kingdom increase. I’ve wondered if that has anything to do with the current situation of the parks, and people thinking about resort only stays.  However a lot of the prices Ive seen are over priced IMO. Compounded with the fact that the dues are above average. I don’t believe a lot of buyers run all the numbers. The purchase price is a tiny fraction of what you’ll pay over the life of the contract.


----------



## CastAStone

Captain Trips said:


> I’ve definitely seen the demand for animal kingdom increase. I’ve wondered if that has anything to do with the current situation of the parks, and people thinking about resort only stays.  However a lot of the prices Ive seen are over priced IMO. Compounded with the fact that the dues are above average. I don’t believe a lot of buyers run all the numbers. The purchase price is a tiny fraction of what you’ll pay over the life of the contract.


On a dues per room night basis (instead of per point) though it's gotta be on the cheap side.


----------



## JETSDAD

Captain Trips said:


> I’ve definitely seen the demand for animal kingdom increase. I’ve wondered if that has anything to do with the current situation of the parks, and people thinking about resort only stays.  However a lot of the prices Ive seen are over priced IMO. Compounded with the fact that the dues are above average. I don’t believe a lot of buyers run all the numbers. The purchase price is a tiny fraction of what you’ll pay over the life of the contract.


AKV is about $.50/pt above the overall average (not including subsidized dues) and is lower than even OKW.  I'll happily pay 50 cents per point to have a zoo out my window. With the point charts factored in it will be cheaper to stay there than most other resorts.


----------



## becauseimnew

We’ve been looking at AKL because of the low point for studios and the longer contract -2057... DH would prefer BRV but would need more points for a studio and contract expires 2042. For a little more we can get an additional 15 years.


----------



## sethschroeder

JETSDAD said:


> AKV is about $.50/pt above the overall average (not including subsidized dues) and is lower than even OKW.  I'll happily pay 50 cents per point to have a zoo out my window. With the point charts factored in it will be cheaper to stay there than most other resorts.



AKV is an amazing resort if you don't plan on going to the parks. If you plan on going to the parks its a terrible resort for transportation outside of going to AK.

People will disagree that's fine but out of all the resorts I think its the one with the biggest requirement to stay there before you buy there to make sure you are happy.

That being said if I bought at AK I would plan on paying for Lyft/Uber for the next 40 years to get to the parks and account for that in the price.


----------



## sethschroeder

becauseimnew said:


> We’ve been looking at AKL because of the low point for studios and the longer contract -2057... DH would prefer BRV but would need more points for a studio and contract expires 2042. For a little more we can get an additional 15 years.



BRV is a harder one because CCV has the same points structure so it will always be a depressed resort price wise. On the flip side I own at BWV and CCV. On the BWV points I have a very strong feeling I can use it the next 10 years and if I wanted to I could then sell it and get my money back (yes I "lose" theoretical investment money but this money would never have been invested anyways it would have been spent on something else over the next 2-3 years).

Also our BWV contract expires when our kids likely graduate from college so that is perfect timing anyways to no longer be locked in to the extra points.

One additional thing I would do the math on is CCV (with incentives right now) and also account for the AP that you can get discounted then. Basically when we go in January then in December in a single year we can use a single AP for two trips and pocket the rest as savings.

Final note if you have not stayed at AKL before I would suggest you do before buying if possible. It is far out there, busses can really be hit and miss, and unless AK comprises the majority of your trip that can be a real downer.


----------



## Captain Trips

JETSDAD said:


> AKV is about $.50/pt above the overall average (not including subsidized dues) and is lower than even OKW.  I'll happily pay 50 cents per point to have a zoo out my window. With the point charts factored in it will be cheaper to stay there than most other resorts.



I agree it’s a fantastic resort. Probably my favorite.  The point charts are very favorable and I will probably buy if the right price comes around. I just don’t see the value right now. From
what I’ve seen in the past there’s been plenty of availability for most room types and times. I’m very aware this could change with the closures and point build ups. Also, the transportation is not ideal for my stroller situation.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

bookwormde said:


> There are definitely less AKV available, apparently from strong demand.


Anecdotal but I feel like I've seen a lot more AKV in the 100 point and under region over the past few weeks.  From March until June it seemed like there were none of those anywhere.


----------



## bookwormde

7/6 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240-250% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Hoosier John

becauseimnew said:


> We’ve been looking at AKL because of the low point for studios and the longer contract -2057... DH would prefer BRV but would need more points for a studio and contract expires 2042. For a little more we can get an additional 15 years.


If you're looking at the Value Studios, check into availability.  I seem to recall there are very few of those, and they go quickly.  (good to see you over here!)


----------



## WestCoastDVC

DVC Resale Market published average selling prices for June this morning on their blog. I don't seem to be able to post the link here (I get a spam warning, anyone know why?). But overall some resorts are up and some are down. Aulani and VGF (which I track more closely) are at $88 and $157 per point respectively.


----------



## becauseimnew

Hoosier John said:


> If you're looking at the Value Studios, check into availability.  I seem to recall there are very few of those, and they go quickly.  (good to see you over here!)


The value rooms are a great value, but even the standard studio rooms are less points then BRV.


----------



## JETSDAD

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/


----------



## CastAStone

Captain Trips said:


> I agree it’s a fantastic resort. Probably my favorite.  The point charts are very favorable and I will probably buy if the right price comes around. I just don’t see the value right now. From
> what I’ve seen in the past there’s been plenty of availability for most room types and times. I’m very aware this could change with the closures and point build ups. Also, the transportation is not ideal for my stroller situation.


I had to check. Animal Kingdom Villas is among the very least expensive resorts for points per night (this is the average dues per night you would have paid, assuming you stayed all 365 nights, based on 2021 points charts but 2020 dues).

Kidani availability is always good at AKV but if you want to stay at Jambo most of the year you have to own.

*Resort**Room Type**View**Average Dues per Room Night*AKVDeluxe StudioValue $                                                    81.31SSRDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                    98.03BWVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  102.95OKWDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  107.63AKVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  111.54SSRDeluxe StudioPreferred $                                                  113.17BLTDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  117.54BCVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  122.81CCVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  128.74RVATowerStandard $                                                  130.15BWVDeluxe StudioBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  130.65BLTDeluxe StudioLake $                                                  133.38BRVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  135.34AKVDeluxe StudioSavannah $                                                  139.61VGFDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  141.53PolyDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  147.43BLTDeluxe StudioMK $                                                  161.00RVADeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  161.22VGFDeluxe StudioLake $                                                  165.82AKVOne-BedroomValue $                                                  172.53AKVDeluxe StudioClub $                                                  174.88PolyDeluxe StudioLake $                                                  175.64RVADeluxe StudioPreferred $                                                  199.56SSROne-BedroomStandard $                                                  203.17BWVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  208.14AKVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  221.86OKWOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  222.40BLTOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  227.69AKVTwo-BedroomValue $                                                  230.92SSROne-BedroomPreferred $                                                  232.38BCVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  247.92SSRTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  257.37BLTOne-BedroomLake $                                                  257.82BWVOne-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  261.35CCVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  263.55AKVOne-BedroomSavannah $                                                  270.46BRVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  275.40BWVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  286.33VGFOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  287.18AKVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  287.22OKWTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  301.84BLTTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  305.37SSRTwo-BedroomPreferred $                                                  307.98BLTOne-BedroomMK $                                                  310.61SSRTreehouseStandard $                                                  322.09BCVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  323.95RVAOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  334.95BLTTwo-BedroomLake $                                                  336.63BWVTwo-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  339.52CCVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  341.24VGFOne-BedroomLake $                                                  345.66BRVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  356.25AKVOne-BedroomClub $                                                  361.13AKVTwo-BedroomSavannah $                                                  366.47VGFTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  395.48BLTTwo-BedroomMK $                                                  410.55RVAOne-BedroomPreferred $                                                  417.41RVATwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  438.74VGFTwo-BedroomLake $                                                  468.28OKWGrand VillaStandard $                                                  476.49AKVTwo-BedroomClub $                                                  486.58RVATwo-BedroomPreferred $                                                  531.88SSRGrand VillaStandard $                                                  565.50SSRGrand VillaPreferred $                                                  646.79AKVGrand VillaStandard $                                                  669.47BLTGrand VillaLake $                                                  715.67BWVGrand VillaBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  725.79AKVGrand VillaSavannah $                                                  732.54CCVCabinStandard $                                                  852.11BLTGrand VillaMK $                                                  860.94CCVGrand VillaStandard $                                                  899.26VGFGrand VillaLake $                                                  948.74PolyBungalowLake $                                                  998.03RVAGrand VillaStandard $                                              1,088.10


----------



## Isabelle12345

CastAStone said:


> I had to check. Animal Kingdom Villas is among the very least expensive resorts for points per night (this is the average dues per night you would have paid, assuming you stayed all 365 nights, based on 2021 points charts but 2020 dues).
> 
> Kidani availability is always good at AKV but if you want to stay at Jambo most of the year you have to own.
> 
> *Resort**Room Type**View**Average Dues per Room Night*AKVDeluxe StudioValue $                                                    81.31SSRDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                    98.03BWVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  102.95OKWDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  107.63AKVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  111.54SSRDeluxe StudioPreferred $                                                  113.17BLTDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  117.54BCVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  122.81CCVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  128.74RVATowerStandard $                                                  130.15BWVDeluxe StudioBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  130.65BLTDeluxe StudioLake $                                                  133.38BRVDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  135.34AKVDeluxe StudioSavannah $                                                  139.61VGFDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  141.53PolyDeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  147.43BLTDeluxe StudioMK $                                                  161.00RVADeluxe StudioStandard $                                                  161.22VGFDeluxe StudioLake $                                                  165.82AKVOne-BedroomValue $                                                  172.53AKVDeluxe StudioClub $                                                  174.88PolyDeluxe StudioLake $                                                  175.64RVADeluxe StudioPreferred $                                                  199.56SSROne-BedroomStandard $                                                  203.17BWVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  208.14AKVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  221.86OKWOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  222.40BLTOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  227.69AKVTwo-BedroomValue $                                                  230.92SSROne-BedroomPreferred $                                                  232.38BCVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  247.92SSRTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  257.37BLTOne-BedroomLake $                                                  257.82BWVOne-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  261.35CCVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  263.55AKVOne-BedroomSavannah $                                                  270.46BRVOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  275.40BWVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  286.33VGFOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  287.18AKVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  287.22OKWTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  301.84BLTTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  305.37SSRTwo-BedroomPreferred $                                                  307.98BLTOne-BedroomMK $                                                  310.61SSRTreehouseStandard $                                                  322.09BCVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  323.95RVAOne-BedroomStandard $                                                  334.95BLTTwo-BedroomLake $                                                  336.63BWVTwo-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  339.52CCVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  341.24VGFOne-BedroomLake $                                                  345.66BRVTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  356.25AKVOne-BedroomClub $                                                  361.13AKVTwo-BedroomSavannah $                                                  366.47VGFTwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  395.48BLTTwo-BedroomMK $                                                  410.55RVAOne-BedroomPreferred $                                                  417.41RVATwo-BedroomStandard $                                                  438.74VGFTwo-BedroomLake $                                                  468.28OKWGrand VillaStandard $                                                  476.49AKVTwo-BedroomClub $                                                  486.58RVATwo-BedroomPreferred $                                                  531.88SSRGrand VillaStandard $                                                  565.50SSRGrand VillaPreferred $                                                  646.79AKVGrand VillaStandard $                                                  669.47BLTGrand VillaLake $                                                  715.67BWVGrand VillaBoardwalk/Pool $                                                  725.79AKVGrand VillaSavannah $                                                  732.54CCVCabinStandard $                                                  852.11BLTGrand VillaMK $                                                  860.94CCVGrand VillaStandard $                                                  899.26VGFGrand VillaLake $                                                  948.74PolyBungalowLake $                                                  998.03RVAGrand VillaStandard $                                              1,088.10



WoW thank you so much for this! Very helpful!!!


----------



## Ruttangel

JETSDAD said:


> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/


Some big drop offs in VGF and BWV pricing, not sure on volumes here, but worth monitoring that trend


----------



## MICKIMINI

I searched for three months for AK and bid on a number of contracts.  Last week, I saw $150 for a small AK listing with direct being $186.  Someone new to DVC would really have to consider just buying 100 points direct for an extra $3600, get a blue card and an additional years points (based on UY) for the long game and add on after that when the market is right.

I'm glad we scooped a 100 BRV for $99 as opposed to CCV for $215 with incentives.  It's a great addition to our OKW contracts.   Being older, we don't care about a 2042 expiration, but if we were younger it would be a consideration.  I'll keep watching for an AK contract, but I'm not paying $150 or even $120...if and when there are a glut of contracts and more competition I may try again.


----------



## Captain Trips

CastAStone said:


> I had to check. Animal Kingdom Villas is among the very least expensive resorts for points per night (this is the average dues per night you would have paid, assuming you stayed all 365 nights, based on 2021 points charts but 2020 dues).
> 
> Kidani availability is always good at AKV but if you want to stay at Jambo most of the year you have to own.
> 
> *Resort**Room Type**View**Average Dues per Room Night*AKVDeluxe StudioValue$                                                    81.31SSRDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                    98.03BWVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  102.95OKWDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  107.63AKVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  111.54SSRDeluxe StudioPreferred$                                                  113.17BLTDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  117.54BCVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  122.81CCVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  128.74RVATowerStandard$                                                  130.15BWVDeluxe StudioBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  130.65BLTDeluxe StudioLake$                                                  133.38BRVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  135.34AKVDeluxe StudioSavannah$                                                  139.61VGFDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  141.53PolyDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  147.43BLTDeluxe StudioMK$                                                  161.00RVADeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  161.22VGFDeluxe StudioLake$                                                  165.82AKVOne-BedroomValue$                                                  172.53AKVDeluxe StudioClub$                                                  174.88PolyDeluxe StudioLake$                                                  175.64RVADeluxe StudioPreferred$                                                  199.56SSROne-BedroomStandard$                                                  203.17BWVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  208.14AKVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  221.86OKWOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  222.40BLTOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  227.69AKVTwo-BedroomValue$                                                  230.92SSROne-BedroomPreferred$                                                  232.38BCVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  247.92SSRTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  257.37BLTOne-BedroomLake$                                                  257.82BWVOne-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  261.35CCVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  263.55AKVOne-BedroomSavannah$                                                  270.46BRVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  275.40BWVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  286.33VGFOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  287.18AKVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  287.22OKWTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  301.84BLTTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  305.37SSRTwo-BedroomPreferred$                                                  307.98BLTOne-BedroomMK$                                                  310.61SSRTreehouseStandard$                                                  322.09BCVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  323.95RVAOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  334.95BLTTwo-BedroomLake$                                                  336.63BWVTwo-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  339.52CCVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  341.24VGFOne-BedroomLake$                                                  345.66BRVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  356.25AKVOne-BedroomClub$                                                  361.13AKVTwo-BedroomSavannah$                                                  366.47VGFTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  395.48BLTTwo-BedroomMK$                                                  410.55RVAOne-BedroomPreferred$                                                  417.41RVATwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  438.74VGFTwo-BedroomLake$                                                  468.28OKWGrand VillaStandard$                                                  476.49AKVTwo-BedroomClub$                                                  486.58RVATwo-BedroomPreferred$                                                  531.88SSRGrand VillaStandard$                                                  565.50SSRGrand VillaPreferred$                                                  646.79AKVGrand VillaStandard$                                                  669.47BLTGrand VillaLake$                                                  715.67BWVGrand VillaBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  725.79AKVGrand VillaSavannah$                                                  732.54CCVCabinStandard$                                                  852.11BLTGrand VillaMK$                                                  860.94CCVGrand VillaStandard$                                                  899.26VGFGrand VillaLake$                                                  948.74PolyBungalowLake$                                                  998.03RVAGrand VillaStandard$                                              1,088.10



This is great info. Thank you. Definitely adds a different perspective on my AKL cost analysis. This also reinforces my personal opinion on the value of BLT. I would prefer kidani, big fan of the extra bathrooms in the one and two bedrooms.


----------



## CastAStone

Captain Trips said:


> This is great info. Thank you. Definitely adds a different perspective on my AKL cost analysis. This also reinforces my personal opinion on the value of BLT. I would prefer kidani, big fan of the extra bathrooms in the one and two bedrooms.


It has also given me a new perspective on BLT. The point chart isn't as good as some others but the dues really offset it - the 1BR Standard View (which is what we are looking to stay at) is only a 15% premium to SSR Standard View. 

Huh.


----------



## EM Lawrence

CastAStone said:


> I had to check. Animal Kingdom Villas is among the very least expensive resorts for points per night (this is the average dues per night you would have paid, assuming you stayed all 365 nights, based on 2021 points charts but 2020 dues).
> 
> Kidani availability is always good at AKV but if you want to stay at Jambo most of the year you have to own.
> 
> *Resort**Room Type**View**Average Dues per Room Night*AKVDeluxe StudioValue$                                                    81.31SSRDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                    98.03BWVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  102.95OKWDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  107.63AKVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  111.54SSRDeluxe StudioPreferred$                                                  113.17BLTDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  117.54BCVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  122.81CCVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  128.74RVATowerStandard$                                                  130.15BWVDeluxe StudioBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  130.65BLTDeluxe StudioLake$                                                  133.38BRVDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  135.34AKVDeluxe StudioSavannah$                                                  139.61VGFDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  141.53PolyDeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  147.43BLTDeluxe StudioMK$                                                  161.00RVADeluxe StudioStandard$                                                  161.22VGFDeluxe StudioLake$                                                  165.82AKVOne-BedroomValue$                                                  172.53AKVDeluxe StudioClub$                                                  174.88PolyDeluxe StudioLake$                                                  175.64RVADeluxe StudioPreferred$                                                  199.56SSROne-BedroomStandard$                                                  203.17BWVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  208.14AKVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  221.86OKWOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  222.40BLTOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  227.69AKVTwo-BedroomValue$                                                  230.92SSROne-BedroomPreferred$                                                  232.38BCVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  247.92SSRTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  257.37BLTOne-BedroomLake$                                                  257.82BWVOne-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  261.35CCVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  263.55AKVOne-BedroomSavannah$                                                  270.46BRVOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  275.40BWVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  286.33VGFOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  287.18AKVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  287.22OKWTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  301.84BLTTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  305.37SSRTwo-BedroomPreferred$                                                  307.98BLTOne-BedroomMK$                                                  310.61SSRTreehouseStandard$                                                  322.09BCVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  323.95RVAOne-BedroomStandard$                                                  334.95BLTTwo-BedroomLake$                                                  336.63BWVTwo-BedroomBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  339.52CCVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  341.24VGFOne-BedroomLake$                                                  345.66BRVTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  356.25AKVOne-BedroomClub$                                                  361.13AKVTwo-BedroomSavannah$                                                  366.47VGFTwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  395.48BLTTwo-BedroomMK$                                                  410.55RVAOne-BedroomPreferred$                                                  417.41RVATwo-BedroomStandard$                                                  438.74VGFTwo-BedroomLake$                                                  468.28OKWGrand VillaStandard$                                                  476.49AKVTwo-BedroomClub$                                                  486.58RVATwo-BedroomPreferred$                                                  531.88SSRGrand VillaStandard$                                                  565.50SSRGrand VillaPreferred$                                                  646.79AKVGrand VillaStandard$                                                  669.47BLTGrand VillaLake$                                                  715.67BWVGrand VillaBoardwalk/Pool$                                                  725.79AKVGrand VillaSavannah$                                                  732.54CCVCabinStandard$                                                  852.11BLTGrand VillaMK$                                                  860.94CCVGrand VillaStandard$                                                  899.26VGFGrand VillaLake$                                                  948.74PolyBungalowLake$                                                  998.03RVAGrand VillaStandard$                                              1,088.10


@CastAStone I think this chart deserves its own thread Instead of being buried way back in this one! And thank you for this great analysis.  Every chart I see reinforces that I want to own some BWV points when the right contract comes along.


----------



## CastAStone

EM Lawrence said:


> @CastAStone I think this chart deserves its own thread Instead of being buried way back in this one! And thank you for this great analysis.  Every chart I see reinforces that I want to own some BWV points when the right contract comes along.


I have a plan. More to come. Probably not for several days.


----------



## Ruttangel

I remember doing this last year to look at cost per point, per night rankings along with CanadaDisney. Would need refreshing but I found it useful before getting AKL - BASED ON RESALE CONTRACT PRICES AT THE TIME AND RIVIERA DIRECT PRICING


----------



## JoshF

CastAStone said:


> I have a plan. More to come. Probably not for several days.


Can you please add Aulani?


----------



## CastAStone

JoshF said:


> Can you please add Aulani?


The non-WDW resorts use different schedules in terms of high and low seasons, so it has to be done as an entirely separate analysis and then lumped in at the end. So, eventually I will try to get to at least Aulani and VGC, but not this week.


----------



## CastAStone

CastAStone said:


> I have a plan. More to come. Probably not for several days.


https://www.disboards.com/threads/dvc-dues-charts-2020-2021.3806878/#post-62107486


----------



## pogopossum

As a charter member owner of AKV, we have not found the transportation on buses to be that much more of a pain than some other resorts. OKW and SSR both have a problem with so many stops that it's sometimes hit or miss as to whether you will have a seat or not. Depending on which monorail resort you are at, you may have to stop at another resort on a full bus to drop off or pick up. So really any resort can have its own set of travel resonated complications. 

Overall, we love the resort theming, and as JETSDAD said happy to have a zoo outside my balcony.


----------



## CastAStone

pogopossum said:


> We have not found the transportation on buses to be that much more of a pain than some other resorts.


This was my experience last fall. MK was a bit of a hike but the rides to the other 3 parks were plenty fast and only making at most 2 stops (Kidani and Jambo) was great.


----------



## sethschroeder

Ruttangel said:


> Some big drop offs in VGF and BWV pricing, not sure on volumes here, but worth monitoring that trend



Its all the details. If you look at the listings that have sold and I had looked some as well the contracts at BWV selling on their site are typically larger 300+ points and thus cheaper and driving down average prices. It doesn't accurately account for the market though as those bigger contracts are likely trying to be unloaded.

Maybe people are looking at those larger contracts but I think the better measure are on the 150 point contracts or the median price.

By the way I am not in denial and said since page maybe 2 that the pricing is going to go down likely (I sold 2 BWV smaller contracts back in March/April even). I just don't think the information is correctly positioned to draw a proper conclusion.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> This was my experience last fall. MK was a bit of a hike but the rides to the other 3 parks were plenty fast and only making at most 2 stops (Kidani and Jambo) was great.



I had I can't remember like 10-15 different busses (we did 1.5 parks per day) during 9 park day stay that were like an hour long.

The other poster said not as worse as other resorts? Well the point is something like BWV, BCV, RIV can go to two parks without any busses / VGF, POLY, BLT is one park and sort of two with Epcot / CCV, WVL can go to one park without a bus.

I may be wrong buy I would also venture a guess that people go to MK the most, Epcot/HS next, and then AK the least of all the parks. So the proximity AKV has is to the least visited park likely for many families.

Just putting context to my thought that you really need to stay at AKV before you buy there.


----------



## Ruttangel

sethschroeder said:


> Its all the details. If you look at the listings that have sold and I had looked some as well the contracts at BWV selling on their site are typically larger 300+ points and thus cheaper and driving down average prices. It doesn't accurately account for the market though as those bigger contracts are likely trying to be unloaded.
> 
> Maybe people are looking at those larger contracts but I think the better measure are on the 150 point contracts or the median price.
> 
> By the way I am not in denial and said since page maybe 2 that the pricing is going to go down likely (I sold 2 BWV smaller contracts back in March/April even). I just don't think the information is correctly positioned to draw a proper conclusion.


Yes, completely agree, that would be a fairer comparison to use 150-175 contracts.
And also look at total points available to adjust for stripped and loaded contracts.
Nevertheless this is interesting to see.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> I had I can't remember like 10-15 different busses (we did 1.5 parks per day) during 9 park day stay that were like an hour long.
> 
> The other poster said not as worse as other resorts? Well the point is something like BWV, BCV, RIV can go to two parks without any busses / VGF, POLY, BLT is one park and sort of two with Epcot / CCV, WVL can go to one park without a bus.
> 
> I may be wrong buy I would also venture a guess that people go to MK the most, Epcot/HS next, and then AK the least of all the parks. So the proximity AKV has is to the least visited park likely for many families.
> 
> Just putting context to my thought that you really need to stay at AKV before you buy there.


That is absolutely true. I think that the extent to which resort transportation matters depends greatly on the person, and is lessened greatly once kids don't need a midday break anymore.

Since Pandora opened AK has been #2 in attendance, with Epcot 3rd. MK had roughly 2x the attendance of DHS in 2018, according to TEA/AECOM (2019 numbers are not available yet).


----------



## Ruttangel

sethschroeder said:


> Just putting context to my thought that you really need to stay at AKV before you buy there.


I‘ve never spent more than 25 mins on an AKL bus, maybe I’ve been lucky. However early morning best to walk to kidani if at jambo to ensure get a seat.

My only gripe with AKL is the lack of walkway to the park.


----------



## sethschroeder

Ruttangel said:


> I‘ve never spent more than 25 mins on an AKL bus



Thats 25 mins ON the bus and 1 hour WAITING for a bus. If you never waited more than 25 mins for a bus I want to know your secret. Even watching the timers on the app for bus arrivals would see busses delayed. When coming back from the parks there is no timer then on arrival time.


----------



## Ruttangel

sethschroeder said:


> Thats 25 mins ON the bus and 1 hour WAITING for a bus. If you never waited more than 25 mins for a bus I want to know your secret. Even watching the timers on the app for bus arrivals would see busses delayed. When coming back from the parks there is no timer then on arrival time.


Ok, makes sense, I actually found OKW, POFQ and YC worse for buses.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> That is absolutely true. I think that the extent to which resort transportation matters depends greatly on the person, and is lessened greatly once kids don't need a midday break anymore.
> 
> Since Pandora opened AK has been #2 in attendance, with Epcot 3rd. MK had roughly 2x the attendance of DHS in 2018, according to TEA/AECOM (2019 numbers are not available yet).



I am thinking more long term as AK is unlikely to see any addition or changes now for another 5-10 years when they possibly redo the dino area.

Its interesting to see that uptick but I have to think HS is blowing it out of the water in 2020 now. Epcot probably is slightly lagging but will surpass AK easily once they drop Ratatouille and Guardians. Plus the complete redo of the park as well that will be done in the next couple years.

In 5 years time AK will be at the bottom.


----------



## sethschroeder

Ruttangel said:


> Ok, makes sense, I actually found OKW, POFQ and YC worse for buses.



Ya no clue about POFQ.

OKW I know has the terrible system with the internal transfer system. As far as Yatch Club the benefit is there you can walk/boat to two parks.


----------



## Brianstl

Ruttangel said:


> Some big drop offs in VGF and BWV pricing, not sure on volumes here, but worth monitoring that trend


I love how the headline says prices are up when year over year AKL is flat, BLT is down 5.4%, BCV is down 4.6%, BWV is down 12%., CCV is down 2.6%, VGF is down 11.8%, OKW is 7.7%, PVB is down 5.2% ,SSR is basically flat, AUL is down 12.9%, HHI is down 7.9% and Vero is down 5.9%.  The only thing up is BRV 7.5% and VGC up 11.8%.

If you go by 12 month high everything is down and with the exception of VGC, CCV, and AKL down significantly.  

AKL down 2.6%
BLT  don 7.2%
BCV down 7.2%
BWV down 15.8%
BRV down 8.2%
CCV down 4.5%
VGF down 16.9
OKW down 11.1%
PVB down 5.2%
SSR down 5.6%
Aulani down 12.9%
VGC down 2.4%
HHI down 18%
Vero down 17.9%


----------



## glamdring269

I’ve stayed at AKL Jambo a few times and must be the luckiest person alive when it comes to using the bus. Never wait that long for a bus and the trips aren’t that long.

Not sure if it makes much difference but we are usually at the parks 45-60 minutes before rope drop and then back to the resort in the 12-2 range. The next bus we take out is for a pm park probably in the 5-6 range.

So maybe it’s a timing thing for us?

With that said, my favorite resort from a purely location perspective is BWV.


----------



## JETSDAD

glamdring269 said:


> I’ve stayed at AKL Jambo a few times and must be the luckiest person alive when it comes to using the bus. Never wait that long for a bus and the trips aren’t that long.
> 
> Not sure if it makes much difference but we are usually at the parks 45-60 minutes before rope drop and then back to the resort in the 12-2 range. The next bus we take out is for a pm park probably in the 5-6 range.
> 
> So maybe it’s a timing thing for us?
> 
> With that said, my favorite resort from a purely location perspective is BWV.


We haven't had bus issues at AKV either.  I've actually found it to be one of the best for bus service.  Of course we enjoy walking to parks or taking a boat but it's certainly not a reason that I wouldn't stay at AKV.


----------



## lovethesun12

Ruttangel said:


> Ok, makes sense, I actually found OKW, POFQ and YC worse for buses.


Weird how some experiences can be so different. I loved both POFQ and AKL and would stay at either again. We went to both during Easter. I remember nice, empty relaxing bus rides at POFQ, but standing with kids in my arms thisclose to other people on AKL buses.


----------



## Aussie RJ

Comparing Bus delays to the monorail would be interesting. I've always felt that the monorail resorts to Epcot 'advantage' is overstated. In fact I would be willing to bet that on average a bus would be faster from AKL to Epcot than the monorail from GFV/BLT/Poly to Epcot. 
Does anyone else feel like those average resale prices are inflated? $140's for BLT right now? $117 for BWV? I'm sure buyers could do better.


----------



## EM Lawrence

I think the broker that publishes that data tends to have higher prices than some other, so yes, I think those prices trend a bit high.


----------



## Ruttangel

lovethesun12 said:


> Weird how some experiences can be so different. I loved both POFQ and AKL and would stay at either again. We went to both during Easter. I remember nice, empty relaxing bus rides at POFQ, but standing with kids in my arms thisclose to other people on AKL buses.


It maybe we were unlucky with POFQ, it was 8 years ago now and a lot of buses shared with POR and they had a few stops, very rainy so Boats often not operating. Also, waiting a long time for them to arrive at parks. This was also before electronic bus time arrivals were displayed.


----------



## Ruttangel

Aussie RJ said:


> Comparing Bus delays to the monorail would be interesting. I've always felt that the monorail resorts to Epcot 'advantage' is overstated. In fact I would be willing to bet that on average a bus would be faster from AKL to Epcot than the monorail from GFV/BLT/Poly to Epcot.
> Does anyone else feel like those average resale prices are inflated? $140's for BLT right now? $117 for BWV? I'm sure buyers could do better.


AKL to Epcot bus about 12-15mins. If you assume similar wait time then not that much slower than monorail from TTC.
PVB has the advantage of walking to Ticket centre to get Epcot monorail, I think you could even walk there from VGF but someone may correct me on that. BLT, no chance, that would be 2 monorails. The big offset for BLT walking to MK. Also cheaper dues and lower point chart.
I would love to own at BCV/BWV as well as AKL but just put off by early expiry.


----------



## Wakey

Not a fan of AK simply due to total lack of ability to walk and run outside (no paths etc) but it’s bus service is very good.

By far the worst bus service on property is Contemporary/ Wilderness (often shared) to HWS and Boardwalk to MK (when shared with Swan). Both of these can be full, lacking in buses, and long journeys.


----------



## lovethesun12

Ruttangel said:


> It maybe we were unlucky with POFQ, it was 8 years ago now and a lot of buses shared with POR and they had a few stops, very rainy so Boats often not operating. Also, waiting a long time for them to arrive at parks. This was also before electronic bus time arrivals were displayed.


Yeah I think what happened is that even though it was Easter and *should* have been busier, POFQ had its own bus when we went, and since the resort is so small it didn’t matter that it was Easter, the bus was empty.

At AKL on the other hand, the bus was shared between Jambo/Kidani, and that’s (one of) the busiest times of year.

Our travel agent at the time suggested POFQ during busy times. I guess she was right on for us!

That said the buses weren’t a big deal for us. Yes they were crowded but too many pros to focus on that one con. I’d still buy AKL! Those morning coffee and evening wine views are worth it (and we had a standard room).

Easter is insanely busy anyway so I’m sure bussing is better any other time of the year (well maybe besides Christmas)..


----------



## bookwormde

7/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260-270% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Aussie RJ

Wakey said:


> By far the worst bus service on property is Contemporary/ Wilderness (often shared) to HWS and Boardwalk to MK (when shared with Swan). Both of these can be full, lacking in buses, and long journeys.


I would have nominated Boardwalk to Magic Kingdom as one of the worst I’ve experienced. But come to think of it the CCV to BLT to Hollywood is dam awful.


----------



## Matty B13

Ruttangel said:


> PVB has the advantage of walking to Ticket centre to get Epcot monorail, I think you could even walk there from VGF but someone may correct me on that.


Have stayed at PVB & VGF, and yes you can walk from VGF to PVB then to the Transportation Center which I have found is much quicker than the monorail even with a double stroller.  The big problem with VGF is the morning rush to get to MK on the monorail, I have found that my family wasted a lot of time trying to get on the monorail in the morning to only find no room for us because everyone gets on at the Transportation Center and PVB.  We then end up heading to the boat launch to get over to MK, after wasting 15-20 minutes with the monorail.  I've also got stuck in a nightmare trying to return from MK to VGF after fireworks and the monorails shut down with the CM's pretty much doing nothing to alleviate the problem or give any direction (this was probably the worst experience we have had at Disney).  

The monorail is fine during off peak times, but I can't wait for the walkway from VGF to MK.


----------



## T-i-double-guh-er

Aussie RJ said:


> Comparing Bus delays to the monorail would be interesting. I've always felt that the monorail resorts to Epcot 'advantage' is overstated. In fact I would be willing to bet that on average a bus would be faster from AKL to Epcot than the monorail from GFV/BLT/Poly to Epcot.


Someone here did that a couple of years ago. They found this:


Frederic Civish said:


> Guess which resorts take the longest on an average? The 3 Monorail Resorts! Monorail is one of the slowest ways to get around to parks.
> 
> Guess which resort has the shortest average travel time? OKW! (Except that you need to add time for additional stops within the resort, and if you add the additional bus stops at OKW, Beach Club and Boardwalk, then ANIMAL KINGDOM VILLAS might actually be the shortest average travel time of all resorts!! With Wilderness Lodge a close second!)



Here's the link: https://www.disboards.com/threads/list-of-travel-times-from-resorts-to-parks.3707781/


----------



## Deeleebaker

The issue with AKL was never how long the bus ride is. It’s that you often wait an hour or more for a bus to come. I will definitely use Uber when I stay there.


----------



## sethschroeder

Aussie RJ said:


> Comparing Bus delays to the monorail would be interesting. I've always felt that the monorail resorts to Epcot 'advantage' is overstated. In fact I would be willing to bet that on average a bus would be faster from AKL to Epcot than the monorail from GFV/BLT/Poly to Epcot.
> Does anyone else feel like those average resale prices are inflated? $140's for BLT right now? $117 for BWV? I'm sure buyers could do better.



BWV is the best location in WDW for going to parks and it is only getting better with a huge investment in HS and now a HUGE investment Epcot. BWV has similar walk to Epcot as BCV but is the shortest walk to HS as well.

Only 3 resorts (2 DVC) can physically walk to 2 parks.

Riviera comes in behind BLT, VGF, and Poly simply because those resorts are so close and all will be walk able to MK in the next year or two. it is right behind it though and if you are not a MK fan I could see it (but lets be honest who is not a fan of MK haha).


----------



## sethschroeder

Deeleebaker said:


> The issue with AKL was never how long the bus ride is. It’s that you often wait an hour or more for a bus to come. I will definitely use Uber when I stay there.



100%

I can forgive a 20 min bus to MK if the busses for MK are always waiting when I get there but if I have the bus get delayed on the board 3 times, disappear, reappear, and then get delayed for a 50 min wait at MK rope drop then yes going to be a little frustrated. That is the major advantage of Riviera over a place like OKW. OKW in theory is close to Epcot and MK but Walking>Boats/Skyliner>Busses


----------



## bookwormde

7/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340-360% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## sethschroeder

Wow really going up.

Do we have a total tally since February? What I mean is total number of contracts listed?

I ask because do we have more contracts now listed than expected for 2020? Or possibly is the total number of contracts really the same now since there was such a dip for so long.


----------



## CLE2WDW

bookwormde said:


> 7/8 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340-360% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


Why such a spike?  Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.


----------



## Brian Noble

CLE2WDW said:


> Why such a spike?  Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.


It's hard to say. First, it might not even be a spike. The comparison really should be year-over-year, and this is a comparison to a different time of year---timeshare sales have a strong seasonal component. 

Second, I don't think we can ascribe it to any particular thing beyond "this is all unprecedented." My own take on it: I expect the demand for leisure travel to be different (and suppressed) for quite some time. For example: I think more people will be looking for drive-to destinations vs. air travel. Air travel is likely to be biased in favor of domestic travel not just in the US but in many other countries too. Outdoor/less crowded activities are going to be more interesting vs. crowded indoor activities. Then add in the fact that the economy is going to take a hit, and it all starts to add up.

That's certainly true for me and my family, and we are HUGE Disney fans: we've taken maybe 20 vacations that have involved DLR, WDW, DRLP, and DCL. We had a trip to TDR planned for this May that didn't happen. Now? I don't plan to set foot in a theme park or on a cruise ship anytime soon. Thankfully we have yet to feel any direct economic impacts, but even without that our plans are drastically different. We can't be the only ones.


----------



## CastAStone

CLE2WDW said:


> Why such a spike?  Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.


Here is my best guess:

There has been a lull in new listings for a few months as Disney was closed. Demand remained fairly normal. I think people interested in selling delayed listing because they either wanted to know whether they would be able to take their 1 last trip, or just wanted clarity from Disney before they sold
That lull has led to pent up supply coming on the market right now
In addition, we are at the onset of a recession. Permanent job losses continue to grow. When people are strapped for cash they look to see what they can sell to raise money and a prepaid vacation plan that they can resell for many thousands of dollars for covers a lot of mortgage payments.
I think reasons 1+2 are why we are seeing a bump now, and reason 3 is more of a trickle that will become a flood in several months.

P.S. don't forget that Aulani, the 2nd largest DVC, still doesn't have an opening date.


----------



## bookwormde

CLE2WDW said:


> Why such a spike?  Sorry I’m new to the convo and I’m kind of baffled why so many DVC contracts are being sold right now.


While past downturns has been primarily due to financial stresses, this time it appears to in addition to that in some limited measure, that the ability to use points as anticipated and future uncertainties may be the primary reasons.

It has been interesting that with a 5 to 15% drop in resale prices, that this has been adequate to spur demand to the point that is is in large measure offsetting the higher number of contracts on the market.

one other thing that is also different this time is the the rental market is somewhat disrupted, so  those that were holding more points than they typically use and were renting them as an option to selling.


----------



## CLE2WDW

CastAStone said:


> Here is my best guess:
> 
> There has been a lull in new listings for a few months as Disney was closed. Demand remained fairly normal. I think people interested in selling delayed listing because they either wanted to know whether they would be able to take their 1 last trip, or just wanted clarity from Disney before they sold
> That lull has led to pent up supply coming on the market right now
> In addition, we are at the onset of a recession. Permanent job losses continue to grow. When people are strapped for cash they look to see what they can sell to raise money and a prepaid vacation plan that they can resell for many thousands of dollars for covers a lot of mortgage payments.
> I think reasons 1+2 are why we are seeing a bump now, and reason 3 is more of a trickle that will become a flood in several months.
> 
> P.S. don't forget that Aulani, the 2nd largest DVC, still doesn't have an opening date.


Wow that’s really great insight. It’s one thing to report the numbers but it’s a whole different animal to analyze and explain the numbers. I’m thoroughly impressed. Thanks for the insight.


----------



## bookwormde

7/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300-320% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

Matty B13 said:


> Have stayed at PVB & VGF, and yes you can walk from VGF to PVB then to the Transportation Center which I have found is much quicker than the monorail even with a double stroller.  The big problem with VGF is the morning rush to get to MK on the monorail, I have found that my family wasted a lot of time trying to get on the monorail in the morning to only find no room for us because everyone gets on at the Transportation Center and PVB.  We then end up heading to the boat launch to get over to MK, after wasting 15-20 minutes with the monorail.  I've also got stuck in a nightmare trying to return from MK to VGF after fireworks and the monorails shut down with the CM's pretty much doing nothing to alleviate the problem or give any direction (this was probably the worst experience we have had at Disney).
> 
> The monorail is fine during off peak times, but I can't wait for the walkway from VGF to MK.


I really loved the boat launch that went to GF and Poly. I found that the fastest during the fireworks rush and the morning. We were right next to the TTC in the poly and still preferred that.


----------



## TinkB278

I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?

100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.


----------



## CLE2WDW

TinkB278 said:


> I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?
> 
> 100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.


Something really strange is going on with DVC. I received a promo email today from DVC and it was slightly more desperate than previous promotional emails I received. It seemed like they were really trying to push small contracts. Something tells me that being shut down for 4 months is starting to really hit home for DVC.


----------



## WestCoastDVC

CLE2WDW said:


> Something really strange is going on with DVC. I received a promo email today from DVC and it was slightly more desperate than previous promotional emails I received. It seemed like they were really trying to push small contracts. Something tells me that being shut down for 4 months is starting to really hit home for DVC.



can you share the text? Was it just tone that stood out to you or did they offer any special promotions?


----------



## CLE2WDW

WestCoastDVC said:


> can you share the text? Was it just tone that stood out to you or did they offer any special promotions?


It wasn’t the text of the email it was that everything was “staring at $x.”  Curiously, not a single mention of point minimums to achieve member benefits (unless I missed it).


----------



## becauseimnew

TinkB278 said:


> I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?
> 
> 100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.


I noticed that, but they just posted a second 100PT AKL contract.


----------



## Matty B13

TinkB278 said:


> I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?
> 
> 100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.


I follow FEB UY VGF contracts and several contracts just got relisted on a major resale website today.  I think on a few of them that they dropped their price a few dollars.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

TinkB278 said:


> I could be crazy but does it seem to anyone else that a popular resale site keeps taking down and relisting AKL contracts so that they can artificially inflate the prices? I saw they just posted one 160 points, a few banked points but nothing crazy, for $125/point?!?
> 
> 100 point contracts keep going up and down on their site almost st nonstop.



I'm selling a 100 pt and a 400 pt SSR contracts.  The 100 pt contract sold within days.  The 400 pt contract is still listed - it's the lowest priced SSR points on the website.  Both contracts were stripped -
The 100 pt contract has 50 pts in 2021 (June UY)
The 400 pt contract has 323 pts in 2021 (Aug UY)

I've owned these contracts for less than a year and am not selling due to financial distress - I'm just not finding them to be a good fit for us.  Maybe we'll be ready to buy again in a few years (after we've retired) and have less points - I'm thinking that 200 pts total would be a better fit for us.  We enjoy Disney but we're not fanatics.

That was a very roundabout way of saying that there's a lot of demand for small contracts so I don't think that any resale site's playing games with those listings.


----------



## Matty B13

iflyjetzzz said:


> That was a very roundabout way of saying that there's a lot of demand for small contracts so I don't think that any resale site's playing games with those listings.


The problem with small contracts sold now, are the resale restrictions on them moving forward with new resorts added to the DVC collection.  Where before you could just add them on to an existing contract and not worry about using them at any resort, now you have to remember which contracts have this restriction.  So I don't think small contract have as strong a demand as before the restrictions, because now if you have unrestricted points and only need 25 to 50 more points to add on to an existing unrestricted contract why wouldn't you just spend an the extra money to get a direct contract that has no restrictions.  This is the problem that my family is contemplating right now with wanting to add-on to a couple of our contracts that we already own that don't a have the resort restriction.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

Matty B13 said:


> The problem with small contracts sold now, are the resale restrictions on them moving forward with new resorts added to the DVC collection.  Where before you could just add them on to an existing contract and not worry about using them at any resort, now you have to remember which contracts have this restriction.  So I don't think small contract have as strong a demand as before the restrictions, because now if you have unrestricted points and only need 25 to 50 more points to add on to an existing unrestricted contract why wouldn't you just spend an the extra money to get a direct contract that has no restrictions.  This is the problem that my family is contemplating right now with wanting to add-on to a couple of our contracts that we already own that don't a have the resort restriction.



OK, but with the cancellation of Reflections, Riviera is the only DVC property that would be excluded for the foreseeable future.  And there will be arbitrageurs such as David's that will let you trade in your restricted points for RIV points for a fee.


----------



## TinkB278

iflyjetzzz said:


> I'm selling a 100 pt and a 400 pt SSR contracts.  The 100 pt contract sold within days.  The 400 pt contract is still listed - it's the lowest priced SSR points on the website.  Both contracts were stripped -
> The 100 pt contract has 50 pts in 2021 (June UY)
> The 400 pt contract has 323 pts in 2021 (Aug UY)
> 
> I've owned these contracts for less than a year and am not selling due to financial distress - I'm just not finding them to be a good fit for us.  Maybe we'll be ready to buy again in a few years (after we've retired) and have less points - I'm thinking that 200 pts total would be a better fit for us.  We enjoy Disney but we're not fanatics.
> 
> That was a very roundabout way of saying that there's a lot of demand for small contracts so I don't think that any resale site's playing games with those listings.


I don’t understand why these contracts keep getting taken down and then “delisted” if they aren’t playing any games?

I’ve been watching prices on AKV for about a year now and $125 for a 160 point contract seems artificially high. It’s almost the same price as say BLT or PVB and those have many more years left on them!!


----------



## TinkB278

That particular site used to be the only one I looked at for contracts. However, the prices of their AKV contracts vs others I’ve seen on competitors websites have totally turned me off from ever buying from this big site.


----------



## Matty B13

iflyjetzzz said:


> OK, but with the cancellation of Reflections, Riviera is the only DVC property that would be excluded for the foreseeable future.  And there will be arbitrageurs such as David's that will let you trade in your restricted points for RIV points for a fee.


Yes, but for a couple of thousand more dollars to day over the next 40 to 50 years, what is that worth to the average DVC owner who wants to add-on.  For myself, the price spread to add-on 25 to 50 more points would have to be well over $100 difference, which most resale prices are not right now.

And as we are seeing the whole rental business is getting turned on it's head right now, especially using brokers.  We have 32 VGF points expiring in Janaury of 2021, and I'm not sure if it is worth the time to try and rent these points or transfer them.


----------



## lovethesun12

TinkB278 said:


> That particular site used to be the only one I looked at for contracts. However, the prices of their AKV contracts vs others I’ve seen on competitors websites have totally turned me off from ever buying from this big site.


Yeah I use to track all listings for the resorts I want but pretty sure this is the site I gave up on because their prices are rarely in line with the other sites. They generally would have to take off $10-$20 or more per point before there would be any point for me to try to negotiate.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Can we not name the site we're talking about?   

It's dvcresalemarket, right?  They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.


----------



## CastAStone

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Can we not name the site we're talking about?
> 
> It's dvcresalemarket, right?  They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.


Thank you. All of the talking around a site we’re allowed to discuss is odd.


----------



## TinkB278

CastAStone said:


> Thank you. All of the talking around a site we’re allowed to discuss is odd.


Sorry To be odd. I never know the rules on whats “allowed”


----------



## Deeleebaker

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Can we not name the site we're talking about?
> 
> It's dvcresalemarket, right?  They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.



i sort of wish I’d found https://www.dvcmagicresales.com sooner, but dvcresales.com had the most listings and best search functions. But I’ll know better for addonitis.


----------



## CastAStone

TinkB278 said:


> Sorry To be odd. I never know the rules on whats “allowed”


If you post a link to the site and hit preview, if it’s banned it will show the link as www.*******.com. Then you know you can’t post about that site.


----------



## bookwormde

7/10 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-150% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## sethschroeder

In reality no one should go to a single site or avoid a site because of how they might have priced something before.

As long as they are reputable watch them, track them, and get the best deal for you. 

One caveat when I possibly sell even if it's more buy that contract hahaha. I mean it's only one caveat though.


----------



## Captain Trips

sethschroeder said:


> In reality no one should go to a single site or avoid a site because of how they might have priced something before.
> 
> As long as they are reputable watch them, track them, and get the best deal for you.
> 
> One caveat when I possibly sell even if it's more buy that contract hahaha. I mean it's only one caveat though.



Spot on. I’m sure it has to do with their current inventory of listings as well. I’ve not really seen one site consistently listing every resort higher than all their competitors. Dvcresalemarket.com has listed Animal Kingdom higher than most but I found the best deal on my blt contract there.


----------



## meanwoodwhite

High listing may have mortgages attached to them, so sellers are not going to sell if it means it won't cover the outstanding payments.


----------



## glamdring269

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08...using-payments.html?__twitter_impression=true


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Deeleebaker said:


> i sort of wish I’d found https://www.dvcmagicresales.com sooner...


Does anyone else get annoyed with the format of this website?  I'm not a fan of the picture format and how the information is displayed.  I like columns. 

Fidelity is better, but it also gets on my nerves with all the scrolling you have to do and such.  

Maybe it is just me?


----------



## lovethesun12

sethschroeder said:


> In reality no one should go to a single site or avoid a site because of how they might have priced something before.
> 
> As long as they are reputable watch them, track them, and get the best deal for you.
> 
> One caveat when I possibly sell even if it's more buy that contract hahaha. I mean it's only one caveat though.


Yeah that's true. I didn't give up in an "I'll never use them!" sort of way. I just kinda see all their listings now and think yeah what I would have expected, and just don't bother to watch them closely. I still check here and there. I've put in multiple full priced offers on other sites (and lost them to other quicker bidders) because they were priced more competitively; I just don't think that's something dvcresalemarket seems to do. Fair enough, it appears to work for them so that's great for them! I'm just kind of meh on the site.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

meanwoodwhite said:


> High listing may have mortgages attached to them, so sellers are not going to sell if it means it won't cover the outstanding payments.


Understood but it just seems like a waste of everyone's time so I'm surprised the brokers list them.  There is a CC listing on Fidelity that was just reduced to $170 while all the pending ones around it were listed at $147-$155.



ABE4DISNEY said:


> Does anyone else get annoyed with the format of this website?  I'm not a fan of the picture format and how the information is displayed.  I like columns.
> 
> Fidelity is better, but it also gets on my nerves with all the scrolling you have to do and such.
> 
> Maybe it is just me?


No, a lot of them are awful.  The fact that most don't even give you an easy way to filter out pending listings is ridiculous.


----------



## E2ME2

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Understood but it just seems like a waste of everyone's time so I'm surprised the brokers list them.  There is a CC listing on Fidelity that was just reduced to $170 while all the pending ones around it were listed at $147-$155.
> 
> 
> No, a lot of them are awful.  The fact that most don't even give you an easy way to filter out pending listings is ridiculous.


Knowledge is Power, and they don't want to share that power with potential buyers! (just a theory)


----------



## bookwormde

7/11 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Deeleebaker

meanwoodwhite said:


> High listing may have mortgages attached to them, so sellers are not going to sell if it means it won't cover the outstanding payments.



i decided to look up the contract I bought on the county website. Im paying $122 but my sellers paid $115 Two years ago. So after paying MF on points they banked for me, and commission, they probably Took a small loss. Can’t know how many 2018 and banked 2017 points they got then, but I know I got 98/110 of the 2019 allotment.


----------



## jade1

glamdring269 said:


> https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08...using-payments.html?__twitter_impression=true



Sad. Now I'm wondering what housing will do in Oralndo, not just DVC. 

DVC friends are moving there soon, and contemplating dumping DVC for part of the down payment.

But maybe they should wait a while with all going on down there.


----------



## lovethesun12

glamdring269 said:


> https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/07/08...using-payments.html?__twitter_impression=true


Just curious - are banks in the US deferring mortgages (optionally) for 6 months like they are here? If people have that option they may just be taking it to put aside cash (I know that might not be a good decision with regards to interest, but choosing to defer a payment and being unable to make a payment are different....)


----------



## glamdring269

lovethesun12 said:


> Just curious - are banks in the US deferring mortgages (optionally) for 6 months like they are here? If people have that option they may just be taking it to put aside cash (I know that might not be a good decision with regards to interest, but choosing to defer a payment and being unable to make a payment are different....)



There is a section of the article that addresses this indirectly. I do think there are a lot of unknowns but eventually protections have to be addressed. Most discussions revolve around the folks renting but not all landlords are rich (not trying to imply that you are saying this, I am just making the general point). I’ve got a friend who rents out a property and he hasn’t been paid in months but is still responsible for making his mortgage payment. Vicious cycle...



> The federal eviction moratorium, which covers around one-fourth of renters in the U.S., put in place at the beginning of the pandemic has been extended to the end of August. But many people are still worried about an imminent wave of evictions across the country, as tenant protections vary greatly depending on the state and even city. Many — though not all — states and cities have instituted their own eviction bans; some have already expired, leaving tenants vulnerable at a time when coronavirus cases are increasing in many spots in the U.S.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

If and when the housing market drops so will DVC.  ROFR returning might be all there is to stop a big drop in prices.


----------



## CastAStone

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> If and when the housing market drops so will DVC.  ROFR returning might be all there is to stop a big drop in prices.


They can’t ROFR everything. I mean legally they can but practically they wouldn’t. If a price decline is caused by a surge in supply, that’s that many more contracts that they’d need to purchase to prop prices up. So then to unload them they’d need to find more people than usual to be willing to pay direct prices at a time where there’s not even enough buyers willing to pay the going resale price.

That is a long way of saying, ROFR cant prop up prices if they’re determined to fall.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

If housing prices drop 10-15% how much does DVC drop?  Especially if movement between states and countries continues to be restricted.


----------



## glamdring269

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> If housing prices drop 10-15% how much does DVC drop?  Especially if movement between states and countries continues to be restricted.



We have some history of economic impact on DVC pricing. ROFR threads probably still exist from 2008-13 if you want to see that. Not sure we will see that level of influence here or not but the other thing you just mentioned is actually very interesting. We are going to be facing the usual economic factors but pandemic factors that are basically new with no previous comparable as well. Who knows yet what the new normal is for the park experience? If what is going on right now becomes permanent would it negatively influence prices? I imagine it would.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

It's worth noting that housing typically doesn't drop much (if any) during a recession.  2008 was a housing caused recession so our most recent example taints our memory.  Here is the median home price data with recessions in grey:  https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS

The problem with recessions is they are always caused by something we didn't expect and very little is repeated.  Home prices are actually up since all of the shutdowns started.


----------



## RoseGold

My local market real estate is up, like WAY up, and my SSR is worth more than I paid for it in 2019.  I have no idea what is going on.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

RoseGold said:


> My local market real estate is up, like WAY up, and my SSR is worth more than I paid for it in 2019.  I have no idea what is going on.



Real estate is up where I am but listings are way down.


----------



## CastAStone

RoseGold said:


> My local market real estate is up, like WAY up, and my SSR is worth more than I paid for it in 2019.  I have no idea what is going on.


It’s way to early for a recession to be impacting housing. People who are unemployed are still getting an extra $600. Once missed payments start its months to get foreclosures and then months more to get enough homes on the market to even begin to see downward pressure.

In any case, housing, an essential need to live, is a terrible comparison for DVC, a prepaid vacation luxury purchase. Used Boats, used Luxury cars, beach homes in places few people live year round, these are things more likely to move price in a manner similar to DVC.


----------



## WestCoastDVC

CastAStone said:


> It’s way to early for a recession to be impacting housing. People who are unemployed are still getting an extra $600. Once missed payments start its months to get foreclosures and then months more to get enough homes on the market to even begin to see downward pressure.
> 
> In any case, housing, an essential need to live, is a terrible comparison for DVC, a prepaid vacation luxury purchase. Used Boats, used Luxury cars, beach homes in places few people live year round, these are things more likely to move price in a manner similar to DVC.



I would expect DVC prices to also be closely correlated with medium-term hotel/resort rates at and near Disney World. The DVC "moat" compared to other timeshares is the on-premise location at WDW, but if resort and hotel prices go down significantly for long periods of time there could be continued depressed demand for DVC. I don't think we know what will happen... I have two contracts in ROFR with points coming in 2021. So my bet is that things will be back to normal and prices continuing to rise in the 2022/23 time frame.


----------



## WestCoastDVC

To add one more point: I think the current and potential future monetary interventions of the Fed and congressional stimulus packages make it really hard to predict anything. They can inject a lot of money and induce consumer spending even though all other rational signs point the opposite direction. I believe we are truly in unchartered waters and any speculation is just that. It can still be fun to do though


----------



## Kylie_1504

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Can we not name the site we're talking about?
> 
> It's dvcresalemarket, right?  They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.



Another thing I noticed them adding on stripped contracts is how you can use your 2022 points in 2021 by borrowing but there are restrictions at the moment so that’s not entirely accurate  I haven’t been following for long but it’s definitely doesn’t work in the current circumstances and is a little misleading.


----------



## CastAStone

Kylie_1504 said:


> Another thing I noticed them adding on stripped contracts is how you can use your 2022 points in 2021 by borrowing but there are restrictions at the moment so that’s not entirely accurate  I haven’t been following for long but it’s definitely doesn’t work in the current circumstances and is a little misleading.


Yes I’ve noticed several sites with language on this that’s downright fraudulent.

Showing or discussing 2022 or 2023(!) points at all is at best disingenuous and at worst misleading because _every_ contract has its full allotment of 2022 and 2023 points right now.

Dear sites: Show me current, prior, and upcoming UY. Anything else makes it harder for me to buy from you, not easier.


----------



## bookwormde

7/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-170% of average*

For the week of 7/5 to 7/12 newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## AvidDisReader

This economy is terrible for those at the bottom end of the economic scale.  The thing is there are some professions that are incredibly busy making large amounts of overtime, and with much of the country shut down no where to spend their money.   That is why DVC has not seen large decreases--yet.  There are many that will be looking on where to spend the pent up savings, like those who are not into saving and have the money burning a whole in their pockets.   The next several months will be very interesting.   And for those who are wondering, yes Fannie and Freddie have agreements with all the lenders to offer 6 month deferments so home owners will not lose their homes, at least for the near future.


----------



## Brianstl

I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show.  A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.


----------



## Brianstl

Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show.  If that is correct, they won't be buying back anything for a long time.


----------



## Ruttangel

Brianstl said:


> I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show.  A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.


I just watched the show and he’s right, I wasn’t looking for a contract until I heard no ROFR and the chance of getting a bargain. Buyers are being super aggressive as what do they have to lose if Disney aren’t buying back?  
The only problem is if Covid continues the bottom could be some months away (6-18)


----------



## RoseGold

Brianstl said:


> Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show



Don't normally watch this show, but this was interesting.  The lien doesn't necessarily mean anything, but yea, interesting.  DVC is used to dealing with such big numbers and are probably sweating California tower a lot more than our piddly 15K contracts.

If they want to sell property, they've got to get California going.


----------



## Matty B13

RoseGold said:


> Don't normally watch this show, but this was interesting.  The lien doesn't necessarily mean anything, but yea, interesting.


I would be concerned if I owned SSR, this doesn't look good as far as management goes or for maintenance fees.  Unless they were in some dispute over a defect in the renovations.


----------



## CastAStone

Brianstl said:


> I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show.  A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.


I’ll have to listen to that. I’ve never been able to get into any of the DVC pods, but that specifically sounds interesting.


----------



## CastAStone

Brianstl said:


> Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show.  If that is correct, they won't be buying back anything for a long time.


The Liens against Disney right now are spectacular.
May:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/permits-2020.962646/page-5#post-9315122June:
https://forums.wdwmagic.com/threads/permits-2020.962646/page-4#post-9312616I wouldn’t read anything into it other than Disney has probably unilaterally increased their payment terms to extend their working capital. It’s not a nice thing to do but it’s getting increasingly common for large companies.


----------



## RoseGold

Matty B13 said:


> I would be concerned if I owned SSR, this doesn't look good as far as management goes or for maintenance fees. Unless they were in some dispute over a defect in the renovations.



There were no receipts or anything, so who knows?  Maybe it's already cleared even?

This could be anything from accounting issues with furloughs to disputes over huge construction projects.  Just because there's a lien doesn't mean it's right.


----------



## RoseGold

Those liens are very interesting.  The big ones all look like subs against the contractor, which you know Disney has buttoned up.

Anyway, I thought this was kind of a clickbaity, dumb thing to say and doesn't mean much to me.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Brianstl said:


> I think Jerry from the DVC Store gave a pretty good description of where the market is at right now on the DVC Show.  A really honest description from a broker that really hasn't been what you hear from other brokers.


Is that the most recent episode?  I started skipping the show after ********** left.


----------



## Brianstl

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Is that the most recent episode?  I started skipping the show after ********** left.


Today’s episode.  I miss ********** on the show. I really thought he brought the most useful information to the show.


----------



## CarolMN

Brianstl said:


> Pete, also, said the DVC has had a $2 million mechanics lien placed against them for work done at SSR during the DVC Show.  If that is correct, they won't be buying back anything for a long time.





RoseGold said:


> Don't normally watch this show, but this was interesting.  The lien doesn't necessarily mean anything, but yea, interesting.  DVC is used to dealing with such big numbers and are probably sweating California tower a lot more than our piddly 15K contracts.
> 
> If they want to sell property, they've got to get California going.





Matty B13 said:


> I would be concerned if I owned SSR, this doesn't look good as far as management goes or for maintenance fees.  Unless they were in some dispute over a defect in the renovations.


I think it is most likely that the Disney employees responsible for the SSR renovation contracts & payments are on furlough.

SSR renovation $$ come from DVC capital reserves (money belongs to members) and that money is held separately from Disney funds.  So the money to pay the contractors is there and it's just the bureaucracy that's causing the delay.   The contractors are just protecting  themselves.

Capital reserves cannot be used for ROFR and the SSR funds can't be used  for anything other than  replacing DVC SSR capital items.


----------



## Kickstart

AvidDisReader said:


> This economy is terrible for those at the bottom end of the economic scale.  The thing is there are some professions that are incredibly busy making large amounts of overtime, and with much of the country shut down no where to spend their money.   That is why DVC has not seen large decreases--yet.  There are many that will be looking on where to spend the pent up savings, like those who are not into saving and have the money burning a whole in their pockets.   The next several months will be very interesting.   And for those who are wondering, yes Fannie and Freddie have agreements with all the lenders to offer 6 month deferments so home owners will not lose their homes, at least for the near future.



This...

I'm hoping to buy into DVC at a discount, but I wonder how far prices will correct.  I think there are a lot of people working from home, not spending money on eating/drinking out, and not spending money on trips... or really anything.  The stock market has also been quite resilient with the fed pumping money in.  

Yes, I still think there are more people out there who are deciding to sell then those looking to buy (whether it's because they're in a financial pinch or they just decided DVC isn't worth it to them with all the restrictions), but I'm also thinking there may be some support from those people who were not adversely affected and have a desire to plan a post covid vacation and are picking up some extra points.

It will be an interesting 6 months... totally agree!


----------



## Kickstart

bookwormde said:


> 7/12 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-170% of average*
> 
> For the week of 7/5 to 7/12 newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.



Sorry if it's obvious to others... but could you provide some context/description of what this means?  I feel like you're sharing useful information but I'm not able to understand the significance, except that there seem to be more newly listed contracts than at some other time in the past.

What is the average and what is it being compared to (previous week, same week last year?)
What does Lower and Upper level mean?
How are you directly observing the lower level... and is upper level an estimate?


----------



## BruinEd03

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Is that the most recent episode?  I started skipping the show after ********** left.



What happend to **********? When and why did he leave?


----------



## bookwormde

Kickstart said:


> Sorry if it's obvious to others... but could you provide some context/description of what this means?  I feel like you're sharing useful information but I'm not able to understand the significance, except that there seem to be more newly listed contracts than at some other time in the past.
> 
> What is the average and what is it being compared to (previous week, same week last year?)
> What does Lower and Upper level mean?
> How are you directly observing the lower level... and is upper level an estimate?


The basis is listed in the beginning of the thread, but the baseline is observation of sales over the months before covid. The data is from 5 resellers that number their contract in a way to at allows time sequencing. One of the tools that I used went OOS so that is why the upper estimate as compared to  the lower directly observed. In practical terms I have a spreadsheet where each morning I review each site and enter the new contracts that show up.


----------



## bookwormde

7/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200-220% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

BruinEd03 said:


> What happend to **********? When and why did he leave?


The threads speculating on why have been deleted so I don't think the moderators want us discussing it.  Probably best for us to not discuss it any further here.


----------



## glamdring269

I’m going to have to track down this latest DVC show episode. Not wanting to show up on my podcast list this week for some reason.


----------



## becauseimnew

glamdring269 said:


> I’m going to have to track down this latest DVC show episode. Not wanting to show up on my podcast list this week for some reason.


Sticky on the board


----------



## glamdring269

becauseimnew said:


> Sticky on the board



Thanks I’ve never looked for the video version. Usually get it via my podcast app but must be behind on posting this week.


----------



## RhodyKP

glamdring269 said:


> Thanks I’ve never looked for the video version. Usually get it via my podcast app but must be behind on posting this week.


I’m fairly certain the DVC Show is YouTube only and not available as a podcast. Could be wrong though.


----------



## meanwoodwhite

RhodyKP said:


> I’m fairly certain the DVC Show is YouTube only and not available as a podcast. Could be wrong though.



No it is on Spotify at least.


----------



## BruinEd03

RhodyKP said:


> I’m fairly certain the DVC Show is YouTube only and not available as a podcast. Could be wrong though.



If you have an iphone, it is in the standard podcast app.


----------



## bookwormde

7/14 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300-320% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## jade1

I wonder what effect rental homes have on DVC. Ex these condos are closer to AK than AKL. They look very nice and only a few years old. But for example this sold for $413,490 in 2016. Asking $299,900.
 4 ensuite BR and 5 bath.


----------



## hlhlaw07

jade1 said:


> I wonder what effect rental homes have on DVC. Ex these condos are closer to AK than AKL. They look very nice and only a few years old. But for example this sold for $413,490 in 2016. Asking $299,900.
> 4 ensuite BR and 5 bath.
> 
> View attachment 510369


I would venture to guess they have no effect on DVC.


----------



## jade1

hlhlaw07 said:


> I would venture to guess they have no effect on DVC.



Yea and the other thing on these, sure the "Sale price" might be down, but is the "rental price" down any.

I have no idea what WDW rental home prices are doing, or ever have done actually.


----------



## lovethesun12

jade1 said:


> I wonder what effect rental homes have on DVC. Ex these condos are closer to AK than AKL. They look very nice and only a few years old. But for example this sold for $413,490 in 2016. Asking $299,900.
> 4 ensuite BR and 5 bath.
> 
> View attachment 510369


Personally I just think covid is nuts, everyone is confused by it and has a different opinion of where this is going to go, some people owe money, some don't, some have kept their jobs, some haven't and it is all factoring into the ups and downs of tourism industry pricing right now.


----------



## Brian Noble

Liens are pretty common right now, for reasons @CastAStone mentioned. Sea World has some notable ones too. As I understand it, the contractors must file a lien if payment is later than <whatever> to preserve some legal protections.

I wouldn't read much into it other than the various units are trying to manage cash flow.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

jade1 said:


> Yea and the other thing on these, sure the "Sale price" might be down, but is the "rental price" down any.
> 
> I have no idea what WDW rental home prices are doing, or ever have done actually.



I can tell you that the Doubletree Disney Springs (a good neighbor hotel) has noticably lower prices later this year than they did same time last year.  I imagine that all of the nearby hotel prices are lower which will in turn put downward pressure on Disney cash prices.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> Dear sites: Show me current, prior, and upcoming UY. Anything else makes it harder for me to buy from you, not easier.



Just to clear something up though.

You could have points all the way from 2019 to 2022 messed up since for a June 2021 booking you could have borrow from a '22 UY.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> Just to clear something up though.
> 
> You could have points all the way from 2019 to 2022 messed up since for a June 2021 booking you could have borrow from a '22 UY.


I guess I didn’t consider that because that contract would have an outrageously delayed closing. But yeah I suppose that’s true.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> I guess I didn’t consider that because that contract would have an outrageously delayed closing. But yeah I suppose that’s true.



Not really they could have cancelled planed vacations and looking to sell. 

Lots of contracts are going to come up by people who 6 months ago didn't think of selling.


----------



## DougEMG

jade1 said:


> I wonder what effect rental homes have on DVC. Ex these condos are closer to AK than AKL. They look very nice and only a few years old. But for example this sold for $413,490 in 2016. Asking $299,900.
> 4 ensuite BR and 5 bath.
> 
> View attachment 510369



That is some expensive property tax on that place.


----------



## bookwormde

7/15 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300-310% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## chunks

Any thoughts on the # of overall contracts available now vs February or March?  Seems like these 300% days can’t continue into perpetuity unless there are 300% the buyers


----------



## Hopfather28

DougEMG said:


> That is some expensive property tax on that place.


If you think those are high taxes you should see what that assessment would cost in New York State.


----------



## CastAStone

Hopfather28 said:


> If you think those are high taxes you should see what that assessment would cost in New York State.


My property tax in Ohio is only slightly less than that and the county thinks my home is worth half of that. And who am I to tell them they’re wrong?


----------



## lovethesun12

chunks said:


> Any thoughts on the # of overall contracts available now vs February or March?  Seems like these 300% days can’t continue into perpetuity unless there are 300% the buyers


I started watching inventory for a few sites in May. It was already dropping for awhile at that point, and continued to drop into June. It's been increasing pretty steadily since mid June.

It's still weird though. A contract less than 150pt is not going to stick around long at market value. A contract with more than 150pt will stick around, even if it's fairly priced.


----------



## CastAStone

lovethesun12 said:


> It's still weird though. A contract less than 150pt is not going to stick around long at market value. A contract with more than 150pt will stick around, even if it's fairly priced.


I think what we're seeing is existing DVC owners are happy to add on but with the parks closed (or now limited in capacity and mostly attracting locals), first time buyers are fewer and farther between than normal, so the larger contracts are sitting.

If the larger contracts keep sitting, they will start to fall in price, and that in turn will inevitably drag down small contract prices eventually - 75 point contracts will never cost more than 100 points ones etc.

Interesting times we're in.


----------



## 3 DD love princesses

Deeleebaker said:


> i decided to look up the contract I bought on the county website. Im paying $122 but my sellers paid $115 Two years ago. So after paying MF on points they banked for me, and commission, they probably Took a small loss. Can’t know how many 2018 and banked 2017 points they got then, but I know I got 98/110 of the 2019 allotment.


How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

chunks said:


> Any thoughts on the # of overall contracts available now vs February or March?  Seems like these 300% days can’t continue into perpetuity unless there are 300% the buyers



But DVC has started up direct sales again.  Based on that added inventory for sale, I could see the demand for resale contracts declining, especially with DVC incentives.  Speaking of DVC sales incentives, I'd expect to see higher incentives after this round of incentives expires Sep 16.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

CastAStone said:


> I think what we're seeing is existing DVC owners are happy to add on but with the parks closed (or now limited in capacity and mostly attracting locals), first time buyers are fewer and farther between than normal, so the larger contracts are sitting.
> 
> If the larger contracts keep sitting, they will start to fall in price, and that in turn will inevitably drag down small contract prices eventually - 75 point contracts will never cost more than 100 points ones etc.
> 
> Interesting times we're in.



While both of my contracts got offers fairly quickly, my 400 pt contract took longer, had to be listed at a lower price, and sold for $2/pt less.
The 400 pt contract had 81% of its 2021 points (324) vs the 100 pt contract having 50% of its 2021 pts.

I was definitely not aware that larger contracts sold for less when I bought the 400 pt contract.  ... I paid more for the 400 pt contract than I did for the 100 pt contract.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

3 DD love princesses said:


> How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.



Possibly a deed search on Orange County Comptroller website.  I had two contracts; one deed listed sales price, the other listed '$10 and other consideration' or something like that.


----------



## CastAStone

iflyjetzzz said:


> Possibly a deed search on Orange County Comptroller website.  I had two contracts; one deed listed sales price, the other listed '$10 and other consideration' or something like that.


You can back into the sales price because one of the taxes printed in the top right corner of every deed is a percentage of the sale price.


----------



## Lorana

3 DD love princesses said:


> How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.





iflyjetzzz said:


> Possibly a deed search on Orange County Comptroller website.  I had two contracts; one deed listed sales price, the other listed '$10 and other consideration' or something like that.





CastAStone said:


> You can back into the sales price because one of the taxes printed in the top right corner of every deed is a percentage of the sale price.


If you do a search on the Orange County Comptroller's website, you can get the Deed Document Tax.  It is $.07 per $100, so if you take that number and divide by .007, you get the selling price.  I believe it includes closing, but it gives you pretty close to the per point cost if you then divide that by the number of points (if you click on the image of the deed, it often lists the total points in the deed document).


----------



## iflyjetzzz

CastAStone said:


> You can back into the sales price because one of the taxes printed in the top right corner of every deed is a percentage of the sale price.



LOL!  I should have known you'd have a much better answer.  For those that want to search, here's a link:  http://or.occompt.com/recorder/web/


----------



## bookwormde

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057

*I have added June from the reseller and have updated DIS ROFR for June through 7/15*

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May 7/1 for June and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 .......................6/1 ……..…………7/1 …..8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[102]{111} 92 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[88]{88} 82 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[133]{141} 124 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[152]{144} 130 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[110]{117} 103 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97]{101} 76 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137]{147} 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[148]{157} 160 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[78]{72} 62 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99]{96} 72 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[140]{145} 120 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[96]{101} 82 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND]{64} 48



*over 50% less than 100 pts

The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly


----------



## Deeleebaker

3 DD love princesses said:


> How did you figure out how much they paid? Interested to figure this out.


You get their names when you sign the contract. It’s too late for negotiating purposes, but it made me feel pretty good about the purchase and not trying to get them lower.


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057
> 
> *I have added June from the reseller and have updated DIS ROFR for June through 7/15*
> 
> Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May 7/1 for June and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}
> 
> .........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 .......................6/1 ……..…………7/1 …..8/1 9/1
> 
> AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[102]{111} 92 90
> 
> AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[88]{88} 82 80
> 
> BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[133]{141} 124 124
> 
> BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[152]{144} 130 128
> 
> BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[110]{117} 103 100
> 
> BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97]{101} 76 72
> 
> CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 125(154)[137]{147} 125
> 
> VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[148]{157} 160 158
> 
> HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[78]{72} 62 60
> 
> OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99]{96} 72 70
> 
> POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[140]{145} 120 120
> 
> SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[96]{101} 82 80
> 
> VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND]{64} 48
> 
> 
> 
> *over 50% less than 100 pts
> 
> The spread between listing price and ROFR actual sale price has grown significantly


Aulani is turning out to be your best guess with the property still closed. 

Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV? 
And yeah the $22 gap on VGF between listing and average ROFR thread price and even the $13 gap between avg listing and DVCRM avg sold price is particularly stunning.

That's either a sign that the market has sharply turned positive or a sign that some sellers are trying to get out at a high price while they still might find someone to pay it. Hmmm...


----------



## Royal Consort

CastAStone said:


> Aulani is turning out to be your best guess with the property still closed.
> 
> Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV?
> And yeah the $22 gap on VGF between listing and average ROFR thread price and even the $13 gap between avg listing and DVCRM avg sold price is particularly stunning.
> 
> That's either a sign that the market has sharply turned positive or a sign that some sellers are trying to get out at a high price while they still might find someone to pay it. Hmmm...



I have been following VGF for a while: it seems the competitively priced (current market price) contracts have been snapped up leaving the higher priced contracts remaining. They are just sitting there.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> Aulani is turning out to be your best guess with the property still closed.
> 
> Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV?
> And yeah the $22 gap on VGF between listing and average ROFR thread price and even the $13 gap between avg listing and DVCRM avg sold price is particularly stunning.
> 
> That's either a sign that the market has sharply turned positive or a sign that some sellers are trying to get out at a high price while they still might find someone to pay it. Hmmm...


A lot of the new listings, particularity from the largest reseller, have been well above the market. some of the recent movements have been more about the characteristics of the listings, though when the available AKV listings became limited there was definitely an across the board increase, though that imbalance is lessening.

Most of what I am seeing now is mostly statistical "noise" with now strong current trends


----------



## BennyBoyWrench

I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.


----------



## JoshF

BennyBoyWrench said:


> I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.


At 200 points the current incentive offers a $25 per point discount for new members and a $35 discount for existing members.  This would put Copper Creek ($220 direct) at $195 new member and $185 pp for an existing member.  Riviera ($195 direct) at $170 new member and $160 pp for an existing member.  At $160 per point that's not terrible compared to resale prices on top resorts.  If only there weren't the resale restrictions on Riviera, this would be an easy decision for me.  If I was buying direct I would need to weigh the resale restrictions coupled with an extra $25 savings per point compared to Copper Creek.


----------



## Kickstart

BennyBoyWrench said:


> I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.





JoshF said:


> At 200 points the current incentive offers a $25 per point discount for new members and a $35 discount for existing members.  This would put Copper Creek ($220 direct) at $195 new member and $185 pp for an existing member.  Riviera ($195 direct) at $170 new member and $160 pp for an existing member.  At $160 per point that's not terrible compared to resale prices on top resorts.  If only there weren't the resale restrictions on Riviera, this would be an easy decision for me.  If I was buying direct I would need to weigh the resale restrictions coupled with an extra $25 savings per point compared to Copper Creek.



As a prospective new buyer who's looking for around 200 points (with CCV as a very close second to BLT as my first choice) it is very hard to justify buying direct, even as someone who would like to be "officially" DVC with "future proof" points.  $195 per point direct vs. approx $140 resale is an $11k difference.

Now, maybe if you're planning on going every year and planning trips in sets of two, with each set 11 months apart, maybe you're making that 11K back in 7 years with annual pass savings... IDK, just a wild guess.  For us, we'd be thinking about going once every two years so there's no making that 11k back.


----------



## sethschroeder

Kickstart said:


> maybe you're making that 11K back in 7 years with annual pass savings...



I had signed a contract and backed out because of this. Right now they are not even selling APs to DVC. It just really had me worried because throwing away $10k is not something that I would want to do.


----------



## CastAStone

BennyBoyWrench said:


> I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.


The incentives start at 150 points for new members.


----------



## 3 DD love princesses

Thanks all. So if I pass ROFR then I got a good deal. Sellers paid  approx 175


----------



## iflyjetzzz

3 DD love princesses said:


> Thanks all. So if I pass ROFR then I got a good deal. Sellers paid  approx 175



You'll pass ROFR.  I don't think that DVC's ROFR'd any contracts for several months.


----------



## bookwormde

7/16 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220-240% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

The number of active listing on the largest site have been ticking up slowly, about 5% over the past 2 weeks


----------



## dvc lover 1970

47 AKV I would definitely have grabbed that one!! I think prices are heading south. We have been owners for over ten years and for the first time my husband actually suggested selling some of our contracts because of covid


----------



## dvc lover 1970

Brianstl said:


> Probably even bigger drop there as there will be a ton of buyer's regret from people who just recently bought contracts.


I think DVC will need to lift the RR resale restrictions or create a dvc I and dvc II system otherwise, I do not care how good the deal RR is a tough sell imo.


----------



## MonkeyKnifeFight

Kickstart said:


> As a prospective new buyer who's looking for around 200 points (with CCV as a very close second to BLT as my first choice) it is very hard to justify buying direct, even as someone who would like to be "officially" DVC with "future proof" points.  $195 per point direct vs. approx $140 resale is an $11k difference.
> 
> Now, maybe if you're planning on going every year and planning trips in sets of two, with each set 11 months apart, maybe you're making that 11K back in 7 years with annual pass savings... IDK, just a wild guess.  For us, we'd be thinking about going once every two years so there's no making that 11k back.


I completely agree which is why we bought BLT resale. We got 210 points. It would have been close to 20k more to go direct. We are typically going to be going every year and a half or so for 8-10 days. However I could see us adding on just 100 points direct at some point, but that would only be 100 out of 300-400 total points. The direct benefits really aren't worth it for us until we have that many points and plan to go twice a year more often than not.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

CastAStone said:


> Amazing that some of these average listing prices are going up, some significantly! $117 for AKV?


The smaller contracts for AKV have been flying so it seems like brokers are testing what people will pay for AKV.  Fidelity just listed a 90 point contract at $147.


----------



## a1tinkfans

If it’s all so great ...why are all the points for upcoming visits 30,40 50/even 70 percent off to grab those reservations. that’s crazy! No disrespect, trying to understand if it’s all Covid scare n people are dumping them??


----------



## disneykim17

Starport Seven-Five said:


> The smaller contracts for AKV have been flying so it seems like brokers are testing what people will pay for AKV.  Fidelity just listed a 90 point contract at $147.


That is a ridiculous price to pay considering prices were much lower than that a few weeks ago.  We are looking for a 100 point resale at AKV as we currently have 220 direct from years ago when points were between 96-108 pp, and aren't in any rush to buy so we will wait to see where prices are in a few months.


----------



## TinkB278

disneykim17 said:


> That is a ridiculous price to pay considering prices were much lower than that a few weeks ago.  We are looking for a 100 point resale at AKV as we currently have 220 direct from years ago when points were between 96-108 pp, and aren't in any rush to buy so we will wait to see where prices are in a few months.


I feel like all the AKV prices I’m seeing lately are ridiculous. I was also looking for AKV resale but won’t be buying at these prices.

I just don’t understand why the prices have inflated so quickly and also who is buying at these prices?


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

a1tinkfans said:


> If it’s all so great ...why are all the points for upcoming visits 30,40 50/even 70 percent off to grab those reservations. that’s crazy! No disrespect, trying to understand if it’s all Covid scare n people are dumping them??


People dumping points they can't use before they expire?  That was my guess.



TinkB278 said:


> I feel like all the AKV prices I’m seeing lately are ridiculous. I was also looking for AKV resale but won’t be buying at these prices.
> 
> I just don’t understand why the prices have inflated so quickly and also who is buying at these prices?


Same.  AKV is on my shortlist but that's with an assumption of slightly above SSR/OKW 2057 prices.  When the prices get closer to the MK resorts.... I'll go with the MK resorts.


----------



## Lorana

TinkB278 said:


> I feel like all the AKV prices I’m seeing lately are ridiculous. I was also looking for AKV resale but won’t be buying at these prices.
> 
> I just don’t understand why the prices have inflated so quickly and also who is buying at these prices?


Keep in mind that you only ever see the listed price on broker sites, not the price they sell at.  While it's possible people are paying those prices, it's also possible that they actually sold for much less.  

But I'm with you.  We do eventually want 100 more points in AKV ourselves (Sep UY),  but no way I am paying those prices.  I did 120-points at AKV in December for $104/point.


----------



## Captain Trips

Same.  AKV is on my shortlist but that's with an assumption of slightly above SSR/OKW 2057 prices.  When the prices get closer to the MK resorts.... I'll go with the MK resorts.
[/QUOTE]

100% agree. I was between BLT and AKV. At current prices BLT was a much better value to me. I also believe I’ll have a much better chance using my BLT points for AKV and not the reverse.
When AKV prices trend closer to the $100 price I will be more interested.


----------



## disneykim17

Lorana said:


> Keep in mind that you only ever see the listed price on broker sites, not the price they sell at.  While it's possible people are paying those prices, it's also possible that they actually sold for much less.
> 
> But I'm with you.  We do eventually want 100 more points in AKV ourselves (Sep UY),  but no way I am paying those prices.  I did 120-points at AKV in December for $104/point.


We are also looking for Sept UY, but again in no hurry and would love to find a contract like you got...that is a price I can live with.  Seems like our UY is hard to find...have even thought about selling our smaller contract to purchase a slightly bigger contract at a cheaper price...but that may be a last resort (no pun intended).  Happy Hunting.


----------



## 3 DD love princesses

iflyjetzzz said:


> You'll pass ROFR.  I don't think that DVC's ROFR'd any contracts for several months.


Yeah they took my last one mid March so hoping this one goes


----------



## iflyjetzzz

3 DD love princesses said:


> Yeah they took my last one mid March so hoping this one goes



Mid-March?  You must've been one of the few who got ROFR'd this year.  Which property?

Edit: I see your offer's on Poly.  I'd say a better chance of passing than if it had been VGF or VGC.


----------



## Lorana

disneykim17 said:


> We are also looking for Sept UY, but again in no hurry and would love to find a contract like you got...that is a price I can live with.  Seems like our UY is hard to find...have even thought about selling our smaller contract to purchase a slightly bigger contract at a cheaper price...but that may be a last resort (no pun intended).  Happy Hunting.


Good luck!  I was hopeful AKL prices would continue to drop and be more in the $90 range, but at least when it comes to LISTING, the prices are much higher.  I am still hopeful that they will correct again later this year / going into next year.

Hopefully multiple contracts will post so we aren't competing with each other.  ;-)


----------



## iflyjetzzz

Lorana said:


> Good luck!  I was hopeful AKL prices would continue to drop and be more in the $90 range, but at least when it comes to LISTING, the prices are much higher.  I am still hopeful that they will correct again later this year / going into next year.
> 
> Hopefully multiple contracts will post so we aren't competing with each other.  ;-)



Traditionally, prices drop when those pesky MF bills go out near the end of the year.


----------



## disneykim17

Lorana said:


> Good luck!  I was hopeful AKL prices would continue to drop and be more in the $90 range, but at least when it comes to LISTING, the prices are much higher.  I am still hopeful that they will correct again later this year / going into next year.
> 
> Hopefully multiple contracts will post so we aren't competing with each other.  ;-)


Good luck to you as well!  I like the $90 range also because then maybe we could eek out a few more points.  Hopeful there will be multiple contracts and we each get one.


----------



## pineapplepalms

BennyBoyWrench said:


> I listened to the latest DVC Show pod today, which talked about potential future incentives from direct sales, which made me want to remark on my experience trying to buy into DVC. The current incentives only come into effect if you buy over 200 points, so in the case of Copper Creek (our preferred destination) that would be $44000, and you get to skim a couple of thousand off that due to the incentive. It is my thought that if you have $44000 spare in your account, you're rich enough not to need so save any money, so Disney is driving people who just want to join to the resale market. I really want to buy direct, my wife is even more keen, but unless Disney starts offering incentives that suit those of us without massive wallets, then resale is where I want to put my hard-earned cash.



I believe new members can purchase 150 points and with the incentives it would come out to $30,750. If you really like a new resort it can really make sense to buy it direct during the initial selling phase before later price hikes. When we bought CCV direct, it came out to around $158/point with incentives. If the direct benefits don't provide much value for you though, resale CCV definitely makes sense if you love the resort, and it's hard to beat CCV during the holidays.

Also this is a tangent, but I don't think having x amount of money lying around means you're rich enough to not need to save money. I would say that people who have money don't keep it or grow it by spending without thinking about saving. Also, $44K depending on where you live has a very different meaning depending on cost of living.


----------



## bookwormde

7/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## 3 DD love princesses

iflyjetzzz said:


> Mid-March?  You must've been one of the few who got ROFR'd this year.  Which property?
> 
> Edit: I see your offer's on Poly.  I'd say a better chance of passing than if it had been VGF or VGC.


Yeah blt was taken. Waiting on poly


----------



## NickBCV

I think people who make great deals on contracts in this new environment are going to be super happy in the next two years When the value of their contracts goes way up.


----------



## jade1

DougEMG said:


> That is some expensive property tax on that place.



And high HOA as well. If these are sitting empty (most appear to be vacation rentals) of which I have no idea-might be a reason for some to sell.

Just no idea what to think will happen with real estate down there, including DVC.

Wait it out I guess.


----------



## ldo

vacation homes tend to have higher foreclosure rates in an economic downturn, as they are not necessary. my coworker and his brother (both RE savvy) purchased foreclosure homes in Naples, FL for after the 2008 crash for huge discounts and had their choice of many.
Orlando's RE market in higher end neighborhoods was a bit inflated, IMHO. The pricing rivaled metro areas with higher costs of living.


----------



## iflyjetzzz

jade1 said:


> And high HOA as well. If these are sitting empty (most appear to be vacation rentals) of which I have no idea-might be a reason for some to sell.
> 
> Just no idea what to think will happen with real estate down there, including DVC.
> 
> Wait it out I guess.



Well, it may provide some lower priced housing for cast members?
(trying to find a silver lining)


----------



## bookwormde

7/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-170% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## sethschroeder

NickBCV said:


> next two years When the value of their contracts goes way up.



I don't think we bottom out until then likely or possibly it stays low until then.

Disney is not dumb and them having resorts planning to be closed until 2022 and parks on restricted access until Sept 2021 means there is going to be limited demand for a while. That is just until things open back up not get back to as busy.

There might be a couple outliers right now but I suspect this thread in December will show lower prices typically than we see right now.


----------



## Frederic Civish

sethschroeder said:


> Disney is not dumb and them having resorts planning to be closed until 2022 and parks on restricted access until Sept 2021 means there is going to be limited demand for a while. That is just until things open back up not get back to as busy.



*I think that IF we get effective vaccines approved in the next 6 to 12 months, then Disney is going to IMMEDIATELY say, "Okay, we are going back to full capacity.  You can do what you want, but we STRONGLY RECOMMEND that you get the COVID vaccine before you come."*


----------



## sethschroeder

Frederic Civish said:


> *I think that IF we get effective vaccines approved in the next 6 to 12 months, then Disney is going to IMMEDIATELY say, "Okay, we are going back to full capacity.  You can do what you want, but we STRONGLY RECOMMEND that you get the COVID vaccine before you come."*



Being at full capacity means nothing when people are not visiting. They have full availability most days from what I have read.

Also for the prices with more limited demand this means short term (1-2 years) they will continue to drop because people are cancelling vacations for all sorts of reasons. Unfortunately people have lost jobs, been on furlough, or have reduced income (sales positions relying on sales as an example).

People can't just get back money but they will have accrued expenses for this time. 32% of home owners in July did not pay their mortgage for one reason or another as an example (in May 90% of those ended up being late which is an indicator of strained financial situations likely).

Thats not even accounting to all the reasons why people not buy: they see cash vs DVC issues that happened, they can rent cheaper (at least short term), they can get cheaper cash room (skews the math), they read about limited rooms available (tons of extra points out there both from shutdown and cancellations).


----------



## bookwormde

7/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100-110% of average*

For the week of 7/13 to 7/19 newly posted resale contracts at about 200% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## chunks

The weekend #s are typically lower because there are less postings on weekends and you are comparing to a 7-day average which would include weekdays, correct?


----------



## davidl81

Yesterday I just agreed on a SSR Dec use year contract at $99 a point I pay closing and 2020 MF (175 points with 122 banked from 2019 and full points in 2020 and forward).  It was first listed at 107, then 101.  I offered 95 but the lowest the seller would go was 99.  Sure I could have passed an waited on another contract that was loaded for cheaper, but the difference from $99 to $95 on a 175 point contract was like $700.  So when you are making a $19000 purchase (all in) it is hard to just let your self get caught up on a fairly small overall dollar difference.  
I guess it is possible for prices to drop dramatically over the next year, but  who really knows.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

davidl81 said:


> Yesterday I just agreed on a SSR Dec use year contract at $99 a point I pay closing and 2020 MF (175 points with 122 banked from 2019 and full points in 2020 and forward).  It was first listed at 107, then 101.  I offered 95 but the lowest the seller would go was 99.  Sure I could have passed an waited on another contract that was loaded for cheaper, but the difference from $99 to $95 on a 175 point contract was like $700.  So when you are making a $19000 purchase (all in) it is hard to just let your self get caught up on a fairly small overall dollar difference.
> I guess it is possible for prices to drop dramatically over the next year, but  who really knows.


This was our thinking in buying AKL last year.  We found the perfect contract at a reasonable price.  I could have offered $1-2 less per point, but the difference would have been less than $500 savings (spread over 38 years, it made each point cost 5 cents more, or about $10 extra for each annual stay) and would risk someone else getting the contract instead.

I remain happy with our purchase and what we paid.  That said, we're considering adding 100-150, so I'm watching the market with interest to see where prices are headed.  If prices dip lower after we buy, I'm not going to obsess over having paid "too much."

Now, if we buy at something like $90 and then prices drop all the way to $60, I'll feel a little bad for having paid $4-5K too much.  But I'm not going to wring my hands about it.  In fact, that might be the perfect excuse to add another 100 points or so!


----------



## sethschroeder

davidl81 said:


> Yesterday I just agreed on a SSR Dec use year contract at $99 a point I pay closing and 2020 MF (175 points with 122 banked from 2019 and full points in 2020 and forward).  It was first listed at 107, then 101.  I offered 95 but the lowest the seller would go was 99.  Sure I could have passed an waited on another contract that was loaded for cheaper, but the difference from $99 to $95 on a 175 point contract was like $700.  So when you are making a $19000 purchase (all in) it is hard to just let your self get caught up on a fairly small overall dollar difference.
> I guess it is possible for prices to drop dramatically over the next year, but  who really knows.



The loaded contract really adjust thats price down to the $88-$90/point area which is a pretty good deal for right now. Prices will drop but if you are using the points and booking a trip soon then it might not be worth it to wait.


----------



## davidl81

sethschroeder said:


> The loaded contract really adjust thats price down to the $88-$90/point area which is a pretty good deal for right now. Prices will drop but if you are using the points and booking a trip soon then it might not be worth it to wait.



Yeah the way I look at it is I can easily rent the 122 points at $15 a point so $1830 (and I did not pay MF on these points).  So that takes the sales price from $17,300 to about $15,500 or $88 a point.  And a contract at $88 with full 2020 and forward points would not last more than a day on a listing site.

I also highly value banked/loaded points.  So much so where I will not even consider a stripped contract when looking at resale unless it was ridiculously under priced.


----------



## ldo

Grumpy by Birth said:


> This was our thinking in buying AKL last year. We found the perfect contract at a reasonable price. I could have offered $1-2 less per point, but the difference would have been less than $500 savings (spread over 38 years, it made each point cost 5 cents more, or about $10 extra for each annual stay) and would risk someone else getting the contract instead.


this is what I thought/did when I bought resale contract. It was the perfect UY/# points and I didn't want to risk losing it over less than $500.


----------



## EYL

davidl81 said:


> Yesterday I just agreed on a SSR Dec use year contract at $99 a point I pay closing and 2020 MF (175 points with 122 banked from 2019 and full points in 2020 and forward).  It was first listed at 107, then 101.  I offered 95 but the lowest the seller would go was 99.  Sure I could have passed an waited on another contract that was loaded for cheaper, but the difference from $99 to $95 on a 175 point contract was like $700.  So when you are making a $19000 purchase (all in) it is hard to just let your self get caught up on a fairly small overall dollar difference.
> I guess it is possible for prices to drop dramatically over the next year, but  who really knows.



While I don't disagree with your math, the way you're thinking proves that there's more demand than supply.  But if it turns to a supply-rich market, it may be the seller who needs to think "I should sell for $4/pt less because it's only $700 less".  Just food for thought for all.  Not intended to be an argument...


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

EYL said:


> While I don't disagree with your math, the way you're thinking proves that there's more demand than supply.  But if it turns to a supply-rich market, it may be the seller who needs to think "I should sell for $4/pt less because it's only $700 less".  Just food for thought for all.  Not intended to be an argument...


Good point.  When we bought, COVID wasn't on anyone's radar and all indications were that prices would only continue to rise.  So "only" paying $500 more was reasonable.  Depending on where the market is headed, the seller accepting "only" $500 (or however much) less may very well occur once it becomes a buyer's market.


----------



## _Iowa_

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Can we not name the site we're talking about?
> 
> It's dvcresalemarket, right?  They've been trying to make $12X/point for AKL happen for a while.


Interesting. I'm working my way through the last few pages and found this post. I was happy with dvcresalemarket.com. We got 350 points for $88/point and 300 for $90/point, both at SSR. Didn't think there was anything funny with prices. On another note, before we bought the second I was on another site that I won't mention and the woman I spoke with tried to tell me I need to offer now, prices are on their way back up, Disney is starting to exercise ROFR, etc. So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.


----------



## jlnten17

davidl81 said:


> Yesterday I just agreed on a SSR Dec use year contract at $99 a point I pay closing and 2020 MF (175 points with 122 banked from 2019 and full points in 2020 and forward).  It was first listed at 107, then 101.  I offered 95 but the lowest the seller would go was 99.  Sure I could have passed an waited on another contract that was loaded for cheaper, but the difference from $99 to $95 on a 175 point contract was like $700.  So when you are making a $19000 purchase (all in) it is hard to just let your self get caught up on a fairly small overall dollar difference.
> I guess it is possible for prices to drop dramatically over the next year, but  who really knows.


We just agreed to a very similar offer 160 points at $98 because it had some 2019 banked points and full 2020.  We are paying MF for 2020 and closing. One thing I noticed was some of the brokers charged an additional administrative fee of $150-$250 and this really negated contracts offered at a lower price per point because like you said we are only dealing with a few hundred dollars difference to begin with.  I am adding on points because the 200 we have now has not been enough. I have no interest in a stripped contract. I think you got a great deal!


----------



## WestCoastDVC

_Iowa_ said:


> Interesting. I'm working my way through the last few pages and found this post. I was happy with dvcresalemarket.com. We got 350 points for $88/point and 300 for $90/point, both at SSR. Didn't think there was anything funny with prices. On another note, before we bought the second I was on another site that I won't mention and the woman I spoke with tried to tell me I need to offer now, prices are on their way back up, Disney is starting to exercise ROFR, etc. So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.



agree with this - also found their listings to be generally lower / more reflective of market prices than some other sites. And the value estimate they have under the seller section seemed to give good results as well.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

_Iowa_ said:


> So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.


We used them for our contract and were also very happy with the speed and quality of service! 

I've noticed that many sites have what appear to be high prices at the moment.  But those that say "sale pending" don't disclose what the final agreed upon price was... only the initial listing price.  Contracts are likely selling for less than the asking prices right now.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

_Iowa_ said:


> Interesting. I'm working my way through the last few pages and found this post. I was happy with dvcresalemarket.com. We got 350 points for $88/point and 300 for $90/point, both at SSR. Didn't think there was anything funny with prices. On another note, before we bought the second I was on another site that I won't mention and the woman I spoke with tried to tell me I need to offer now, prices are on their way back up, Disney is starting to exercise ROFR, etc. So just for a different viewpoint here, www.dvcresalemarket.com gets a thumbs up from us.


Their list prices on smaller (~100 point) AKV contracts is $15-$20 higher than Fidelity or *************.  I was in no way commenting on their service or anything else, just that their pricing seems to be a bit higher on that particular property for some reason.

Note that a bunch of them are marked pending so it's obviously not a hurdle to some.  Maybe they're closer to what market value really is?  Hard to say without knowing final transaction prices.


----------



## Lorana

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Their list prices on smaller (~100 point) AKV contracts is $15-$20 higher than Fidelity or *************.  I was in no way commenting on their service or anything else, just that their pricing seems to be a bit higher on that particular property for some reason.
> 
> Note that a bunch of them are marked pending so it's obviously not a hurdle to some.  Maybe they're closer to what market value really is?  Hard to say without knowing final transaction prices.


Just a note that they don't display the selling price.  So just because it's marked pending, doesn't mean it sold for the listing price.


----------



## _Iowa_

Lorana said:


> Just a note that they don't display the selling price.  So just because it's marked pending, doesn't mean it sold for the listing price.


Yep. Ours are listed as sale pending both at ~$6-8 over what we paid.


----------



## bookwormde

7/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## Kickstart

bookwormde said:


> 7/20 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*
> 
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.



Any tracking of the current total open resale contracts?

I just had a agent tell me that sales are up and inventory is down, that it's turned back into a sellers market.  I'm not seeing that in the last month I've been keeping an eye on resale listings, but I'm also only looking at one resort so maybe sales have been brisk on average?


----------



## CastAStone

Kickstart said:


> Any tracking of the current total open resale contracts?
> 
> I just had a agent tell me that sales are up and inventory is down, that it's turned back into a sellers market.  I'm not seeing that in the last month I've been keeping an eye on resale listings, but I'm also only looking at one resort so maybe sales have been brisk on average?


Total Listings are way down on www.dvcresalemarket.com since early April, by my tracking, and while they’ve come up some in the last 30 days they’re still far below normal (About 600 in early April, about 240 at the low point, about 300 now). I don’t have tracking for other sites back as far but total available listings seem to be increasing overall in the last 30 or so days.


----------



## bookwormde

7/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 200-220% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> Total Listings are way down on www.dvcresalemarket.com since early April, by my tracking, and while they’ve come up some in the last 30 days they’re still far below normal (About 600 in early April, about 240 at the low point, about 300 now). I don’t have tracking for other sites back as far but total available listings seem to be increasing overall in the last 30 or so days.


Yes they have listed lower numbers of new listings the last few days, TSS has been listing significantly more so those 2 have offset each other


----------



## TinkB278

Looks like the prices on AKV contracts on Fidelity are now much higher than they were a week or two ago, matching dvcresalemarket.  160 point contracts without any banked points for $117-125 a point! This is getting crazy.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

TinkB278 said:


> Looks like the prices on AKV contracts on Fidelity are now much higher than they were a week or two ago, matching dvcresalemarket.  160 point contracts without any banked points for $117-125 a point! This is getting crazy.


Funny when there are 2 185 point contracts listed at $105/point.


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> Yes they have listed lower numbers of new listings the last few days, TSS has been listing significantly more so those 2 have offset each other


I think the question was around total active listings, not new listings. Do you track that?


----------



## ldo

also a new 160 AKV listed at TTS for $108 with Dec 2020 points.


----------



## CastAStone

TinkB278 said:


> Looks like the prices on AKV contracts on Fidelity are now much higher than they were a week or two ago, matching dvcresalemarket.  160 point contracts without any banked points for $117-125 a point! This is getting crazy.


Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.


----------



## TinkB278

CastAStone said:


> Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.


I’m just not sure about that as this has been the trend with dvcresalemarket even when they had a plethora of AKV 160 point contracts over the last couple of weeks.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

A few people have commented that every fall prices drop a bit as sellers want to avoid annual MF's.  I would expect this year will be no different.  Something that I expect will further motivate a lot of sellers this year is the ending of financial stimulus.  Many countries have stopped or will be stopping their stimulus programs and upcoming MF's will be a concern for some.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

CastAStone said:


> Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.


Do you have data on all the resorts?  My theory has been that listings were SSR/OKW heavy but I always like to check my hypothesis against data.


----------



## CastAStone

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Do you have data on all the resorts?  My theory has been that listings were SSR/OKW heavy but I always like to check my hypothesis against data.


Here is chart of the approximate % of total DVC points sold to date by the resort they are tied to. I _*stress *_approximate because I have guessed at Riviera and Aulani. In theory, each resort would have points on the resale market in approximate proportion to their % of points. In reality, the older resorts had higher buy in minimums, so there are usually a lower % of OKW, BWV, HHI, etc contracts listed than points listed. You can check this against the various resale sites, a few tell you how many contracts are available, others you have to count (or drop the info into excel and make excel count)


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> I think the question was around total active listings, not new listings. Do you track that?


not broadly, 

active listings fluctuate around a trend line, I do not closely track TSS, for active resales but yes as the reseller you referenced was dropping (about 6) active listings, TSS went up about that many or even a few more


----------



## Dismrk155

Awith COVID nowhere near under control you might be better off waiting till mid-year 2021 before buying.


----------



## Brian Noble

CastAStone said:


> In theory, each resort would have points on the resale market in approximate proportion to their % of points


There are some other factors that can influence this across a period of years. There are a few moments when folks who purchased reconsider their ownerships. One is a few years after buying, having discovered that the return trips are not as wonderful as the first few were. Two is when kids get old enough to think Disney "isn't cool" and/or move out of the house. Three is around retirement or any similar sharp change in income circumstances. 

Just like neighborhoods have "an age" to them, so too do the individual resorts. We moved into our neighborhood early in the turnover cycle--a lot of the other families had high-school aged kids while ours were pre-school/grade school. Now that we have kids in college, many of those families have downsized and there are suddenly more families with young kids, strollers, etc.

Resorts have a bit of a similar dynamic underlying the normal churn. It is possible that e.g. AKV is entering a lower-ebb period of its long-term cycle. It was in active sales for a long time---about seven years---thanks in part to the recession. If the typical family bought mid-cycle, that would be about 2010 or so. The early sellers have probably been flushed out, but we may be a bit too early to get the "kids out of the house" wave.


----------



## Kickstart

Brian Noble said:


> There are some other factors that can influence this across a period of years. There are a few moments when folks who purchased reconsider their ownerships. One is a few years after buying, having discovered that the return trips are not as wonderful as the first few were. Two is when kids get old enough to think Disney "isn't cool" and/or move out of the house. Three is around retirement or any similar sharp change in income circumstances.
> 
> Just like neighborhoods have "an age" to them, so too do the individual resorts. We moved into our neighborhood early in the turnover cycle--a lot of the other families had high-school aged kids while ours were pre-school/grade school. Now that we have kids in college, many of those families have downsized and there are suddenly more families with young kids, strollers, etc.
> 
> Resorts have a bit of a similar dynamic underlying the normal churn. It is possible that e.g. AKV is entering a lower-ebb period of its long-term cycle. It was in active sales for a long time---about seven years---thanks in part to the recession. If the typical family bought mid-cycle, that would be about 2010 or so. The early sellers have probably been flushed out, but we may be a bit too early to get the "kids out of the house" wave.



Very interesting observation... any speculation on what cycle BLT is in?


----------



## Brian Noble

No idea, just pointing out that there might be a long term factor.


----------



## TexasEric

bookwormde said:


> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.



Is this the aggregator site that looks like it hasn’t been updated since May 19, 2020?  If so, anyone have the inside scoop on why it stopped Updating?


----------



## Noah_t

davidl81 said:


> Yeah the way I look at it is I can easily rent the 122 points at $15 a point so $1830 (and I did not pay MF on these points).  So that takes the sales price from $17,300 to about $15,500 or $88 a point.  And a contract at $88 with full 2020 and forward points would not last more than a day on a listing site.
> 
> I also highly value banked/loaded points.  So much so where I will not even consider a stripped contract when looking at resale unless it was ridiculously under priced.



Due to my recent experiences I am being very cautious with assuming rental income is as easy to get as it once was.


----------



## Noah_t

davidl81 said:


> Yeah the way I look at it is I can easily rent the 122 points at $15 a point so $1830 (and I did not pay MF on these points).  So that takes the sales price from $17,300 to about $15,500 or $88 a point.  And a contract at $88 with full 2020 and forward points would not last more than a day on a listing site.
> 
> I also highly value banked/loaded points.  So much so where I will not even consider a stripped contract when looking at resale unless it was ridiculously under priced.



Due to my recent experiences I am being very cautious with assuming rental income is as easy to get as it once was.


----------



## bookwormde

7/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 400-410% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

Since there appears to be interest, I am going to begin to more formally track active listings for the 3 big resellers DVC resale market, Fiderlity and Time Share Store.

For the last month DVC resale is up 10% with a current 304 count, Fidelity is up about 8% with 147.

TSS appears to be up between 10 and 15% over the past week with 154 (by hand count)

If anyone else if following any other resellers and want to post counts I can add them to my spreadsheet also.


----------



## bookwormde

TexasEric said:


> Is this the aggregator site that looks like it hasn’t been updated since May 19, 2020?  If so, anyone have the inside scoop on why it stopped Updating?


yes it is, no idea why


----------



## bookwormde

7/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 380-400% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## davidl81

Noah_t said:


> Due to my recent experiences I am being very cautious with assuming rental income is as easy to get as it once was.


That is very fair.  I would think rental income will be very tough till at least 2021.  So for instance let’s say you were looking at a super loaded contract that had full 18 points banked into 19, but you had to use those points by Nov 30th then I would put very little value in those points.  Since to your point assuming you close in time to use them you may only be able to get in the $5-$8 range for them if you are lucky.  Of course if you were going to take a trip on your own with them the value will change.
And in 2021 rental points may be cheaper if we assume that there will be a lot of banked points on the market that people are trying to dump.  We don’t know for sure how that’s going to work out, but it’s a fair assumption.


----------



## davidl81

It’s also a personal preference of mine to buy a contract with as many banked/loaded points as possible.  The reason I’m buying a resale contract is because I’m always borrowing points from my current contracts and it’s like this vicious cycle of not having enough points.  So if I’m going to buy a new contract I don’t want it to start out the way my current contracts are.  I mean sure I could be smart and not use points for a year or so to let the fill back up, but I am not very smart.


----------



## bookwormde

7/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## bookwormde

7/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140-150% of average*


* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## RoseGold

davidl81 said:


> The reason I’m buying a resale contract is because I’m always borrowing points from my current contracts and it’s like this vicious cycle of not having enough points.


Well, 2020 has certainly showed that borrowing is smarter than banking...


----------



## sethschroeder

RoseGold said:


> Well, 2020 has certainly showed that borrowing is smarter than banking...



Losing 1 year worth of points or buying a whole new contract. Which one is less expensive lol.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

CastAStone said:


> Here is chart of the approximate % of total DVC points sold to date by the resort they are tied to. I _*stress *_approximate because I have guessed at Riviera and Aulani. In theory, each resort would have points on the resale market in approximate proportion to their % of points. In reality, the older resorts had higher buy in minimums, so there are usually a lower % of OKW, BWV, HHI, etc contracts listed than points listed. You can check this against the various resale sites, a few tell you how many contracts are available, others you have to count (or drop the info into excel and make excel count)
> 
> View attachment 512432


Yeah, with that context it's interesting how small the deviation is and as you said, contract sizes would vary and could explain it.  "Deviation" is percentage of contracts available total across the 3 sites compared to all contracts.  Totals are a few days old but were all taken on the same day.


----------



## bookwormde

7/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

For the week of 7/20 to 7/26 newly posted resale contracts at about 240% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


----------



## JoshF

On





bookwormde said:


> 7/26 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*
> 
> For the week of 7/20 to 7/26 newly posted resale contracts at about 240% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site.


What is the average time period?


----------



## bookwormde

JoshF said:


> On
> What is the average time period?


it was the approximate average for the 6 months before covide


----------



## CastAStone

miTnosnhoJ said:


> Checking Disney Resales:
> 
> Go to Orange County Comptroller's Site Here:
> https://www.occompt.com/services/records-search/
> Click ACCEPT to accept the disclaimer.
> 
> Now you should see the Document Search interface
> 
> Enter a Start and End date for your search
> 
> Uncheck the box to enable search for specific document types. Choose "Deeds"
> 
> Click "Advanced"
> 
> In the Legal Remarks field, type "Grand Floridian". Note: you might get some miscellaneous extra stuff using this search. If you want to narrow the search, you can type "TS: VILLAS AT DISNEY S GRAND FLORIDIAN RESORT " in the legal remarks field.   I would try both just to make sure you don't miss anything.
> 
> This will give you a list of all the Deeds recorded in the period of time you specified above.
> 
> Now it gets a little tricky.
> 
> Disney Direct Sales will have "DISNEY VACATION DEVELOPMENT INC" as the Grantor.   Resales will have someone's name, or a husband and wife, or their trust, etc.
> 
> Over on the right, you will see where you can click to "View Image". This will enable you to see a specific deed.
> 
> You will want to scrutinize the deed to find out the selling price and the number of points. Many title companies will include both of these.
> 
> However, some title companies, and Disney, will put in "$10 and other valuable presents" for the sales price, so you have to do some more digging.
> 
> If you can find the number of points attached to the contract, you can calculate the sales price by looking at the Document Deed Tax. The Document Deed Tax is .70 %  amount of the sales price.  So if you know the amount of the document deed tax, you can divide by .007 to get the purchase price  (plus or minus a few $).
> 
> Now that you know the purchase price, you divide by the number of points to get a price per point.  For a resale deed, you might see a statement like "Purchaser's ownership interest shall be symbolized as 125". This means they bought a contract with 125 points.
> 
> Deeds with Disney Vacation Development as Grantor may not show the number of points, but the price for Direct Sales is generally published by Disney.
> 
> If you see a document tax of $0.00, it usually means a gratuitous transfer, such as a transfer within a family, or from a husband and wife to their living trust, etc.
> 
> There are other special cases, such as a foreclosures. I can't remember off the top of my head all the nuances of those.


If the Grantee is Disney Vacation Development my assumption is that the contract was ROFR'd? Does anyone know?


----------



## Ruttangel

CastAStone said:


> If the Grantee is Disney Vacation Development my assumption is that the contract was ROFR'd? Does anyone know?


Likely you are correct, would a direct purchase also show this?


----------



## CastAStone

Ruttangel said:


> Likely you are correct, would a direct purchase also show this?


For a direct purchase DVD is the Grantor.


----------



## lovethesun12

CastAStone said:


> For a direct purchase DVD is the Grantor.


Did it sell for a really low price?
ETA: I’m making a possibly incorrect assumption you saw one where this was the case...


----------



## RhodyKP

CastAStone said:


> If the Grantee is Disney Vacation Development my assumption is that the contract was ROFR'd? Does anyone know?


I could swear I saw a post here within the last few months where someone said there were other scenarios in which the deed would revert back to Disney - maybe loan default and/or bankruptcy?


----------



## CastAStone

RhodyKP said:


> I could swear I saw a post here within the last few months where someone said there were other scenarios in which the deed would revert back to Disney - maybe loan default and/or bankruptcy?


Dues Default or someone who it is willed to could refuse it. I don’t know how common that is with DVC. If they are foreclosed on due to failure to pay their loan or if an owners assets are seized I believe it would go to auction, which is still subject to ROFR.


lovethesun12 said:


> Did it sell for a really low price?
> ETA: I’m making a possibly incorrect assumption you saw one where this was the case...


Contracts with Disney as the Grantee don’t list a number of points so I’ve had to keep track of what units have what percent translating to how many points. But if i did that right (and I think I did?) I found 2 Beach Club contracts from pre-park closure that sold for $77 and $78 a point, and it appears they went to Disney. So I’m assuming they were ROFR’d.


----------



## lovethesun12

CastAStone said:


> Dues Default or someone who it is willed to could refuse it. I don’t know how common that is with DVC. If they are foreclosed on due to failure to pay their loan or if an owners assets are seized I believe it would go to auction, which is still subject to ROFR.
> 
> Contracts with Disney as the Grantee don’t list a number of points so I’ve had to keep track of what units have what percent translating to how many points. But if i did that right (and I think I did?) I found 2 Beach Club contracts from pre-park closure that sold for $77 and $78 a point, and it appears they went to Disney. So I’m assuming they were ROFR’d.


Interesting. I guess that was when they were still exercising ROFR.


----------



## bookwormde

7/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-330% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## chunks

bookwormde said:


> 7/27 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 320-330% of average*
> 
> * Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site



Do we know what it means when dvc resale market calls some “relisted”?  Is that one that was pending but the buyer bailed for whatever reason?


----------



## becauseimnew

It looks like sales prices are finally coming down, Fidelity has a 100 point AKL listed for $11,000


----------



## davidl81

CastAStone said:


> Dues Default or someone who it is willed to could refuse it. I don’t know how common that is with DVC. If they are foreclosed on due to failure to pay their loan or if an owners assets are seized I believe it would go to auction, which is still subject to ROFR.
> 
> Contracts with Disney as the Grantee don’t list a number of points so I’ve had to keep track of what units have what percent translating to how many points. But if i did that right (and I think I did?) I found 2 Beach Club contracts from pre-park closure that sold for $77 and $78 a point, and it appears they went to Disney. So I’m assuming they were ROFR’d.



If it was a direct loan with Disney that was defaulted then Disney would assume the property, I do not believe it goes back to auction like a normal foreclosure would.


----------



## kmorlock

Hoping the prices are coming down across the board because the margins vary far and wide from what I'm seeing site to site.


----------



## pinkxray

becauseimnew said:


> It looks like sales prices are finally coming down, Fidelity has a 100 point AKL listed for $11,000



Did you try to put an offer on this one? If I remember correctly this is what you have been looking for?


----------



## bookwormde

7/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 360-380% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## bookwormde

chunks said:


> Do we know what it means when dvc resale market calls some “relisted”?  Is that one that was pending but the buyer bailed for whatever reason?


If I see one that indicates being relisted I will try to see if it was on before. Do you have a specific one that you saw?


----------



## poofyo101

bookwormde said:


> If I see one that indicates being relisted I will try to see if it was on before. Do you have a specific one that you saw?


IT was on before. I think they are converting some of the use year points (banking) to the following use year making it show as relisted.


----------



## kmorlock

bookwormde said:


> If I see one that indicates being relisted I will try to see if it was on before. Do you have a specific one that you saw?


I’m seeing multiple listings on DVC Resale App notifications that show Relisted as a status.


----------



## becauseimnew

pinkxray said:


> Did you try to put an offer on this one? If I remember correctly this is what you have been looking for?


I have not, I usually wait a day or 2 before I put in my lowball offer, don’t want to seem desperate.


----------



## glamdring269

It is going to be interesting to see what the next few days/couple of weeks bring (depends on how long it takes for an agreement). If the federal unemployment relief is dropped from $600 to $200 then that is going to be a significant cash flow blow to our economy. I don't know how many people receiving that type of relief are barely hanging on to DVC contracts but I do expect it to have a ripple that will indirectly impact others who may not be on unemployment but who may also be impacted if this relief is removed.


----------



## firedust

We put in an offer on Saturday on an extended OKW contract thru Fidelity. I have not heard anything from them other than the canned "we got your offer" email. I guess we'll hold off a little longer and see what happens with the economy in the coming months and see if we find an even better deal.


----------



## sethschroeder

kmorlock said:


> Hoping the prices are coming down across the board because the margins vary far and wide from what I'm seeing site to site.



What is happening is more price reduction and people taking prices further below posted price based on one of the 3 main resellers that I talked with.


----------



## bookwormde

kmorlock said:


> I’m seeing multiple listings on DVC Resale App notifications that show Relisted as a status.


I do not use the app, if you give me the contract numbers I can try and check


----------



## chunks

bookwormde said:


> I do not use the app, if you give me the contract numbers I can try and check



Ss41657 is a“relist”


----------



## bookwormde

chunks said:


> Ss41657 is a“relist”


1657  was not posted in the standard sequence back in june there were 2 1656 contracts listed so they may be fixing that duplication. one was 160 june points for $99 and the other 160 December points for $111


----------



## bookwormde

7/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 160-180% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## bookwormde

Active listing levels and changes since 7 days ago

DVC resale 302 down 2

Fidelity 145 down 2

TSS 147 down 7


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> Active listing levels and changes since 7 days ago
> 
> DVC resale 302 down 2
> 
> Fidelity 145 down 2
> 
> TSS 147 down 7


For a reference point I had: DVC Resale Market at:
450 active listings on 4/7
404 active listings on 4/14
367 active listings on 4/21
381 active listings on 4/28
354 active listings on 5/5
310 active listings on 5/12
294 active listings on 5/17
279 active listings on 5/27
258 active listings on 6/2

I stopped tracking all listings at that point because I narrowed my own search, but anecdotally it dropped into the 240s and slowly started rising at about the beginning of July.

I didn't track TSS or Fidelity.


----------



## chunks

The decline in active listings seems to defy logic/economics...unless there are just more listings elsewhere.  Massive job loss, closed/limited parks, no specific end in sight...what am I missing?


----------



## striker1064

chunks said:


> The decline in active listings seems to defy logic/economics...unless there are just more listings elsewhere.  Massive job loss, closed/limited parks, no specific end in sight...what am I missing?



I can think of several reasons off the top of my head...

Closed/limited parks - DVC is significantly longer-term than a 4 month closure. DVC is, at a resort's inception, a 50 year contract. Making decisions based on even one year is a recipe for losing a lot of money.
Job loss - Potentially, but the extra $600 weekly unemployment hasn't run out yet.

Also, this tends to be a slower time for DVC sales in general. There are always more listing near year-end. Why? Maintenance fee bills come in December/January. Those who pay in full for the year and have a paid off contract essentially owe nothing for DVC until the next round of MF bills post, which is still several months away. So if you got a lot of enjoyment out of DVC previously and you are not actively making any payments on it, why sell it? It's a luxury item, and people tend to hold on to luxury items as long as they can.

It's been said repeatedly on these boards, but it's worth mentioning again - the real glut of DVC sales lagged behind the Great Recession by almost a year. Expect to see more listings this winter and next year. It's not terribly surprising there aren't a lot of contracts right now. Plus, buyers think they can get a screaming deal, and sellers are likely hesitant to put anything up right now because of how many lowball offers they'll get, so if they can afford to wait it out, they will.


----------



## TCRAIG

I keep hearing about maintenance bills’ impact on listing - makes me wonder how many pay yearly and how many pay monthly?


----------



## CastAStone

TCRAIG said:


> I keep hearing about maintenance bills’ impact on listing - makes me wonder how many pay yearly and how many pay monthly?


I wonder that too. Not sure why anyone would want to pay once a year when they'll give you 12 months same as cash.

I wonder how much of it is instead that as long as it is 2020, the buyer will pay dues on any 2020 points you have. But once it's 2021 the buyer will pay dues on your 2021 points and your 2020 points become a free bonus.


----------



## Ruttangel

Does this help anyone? I have worked out the cost per stay for end of August in a studio to see where my contract offer at Boardwalk would fit, I had to adjust the year's left to account for the fact mine is a stripped contract. Interestingly it comes in around BLT area for cost which I'm happy with. As these averages come down my contract will creep up this table, so I'll review it again in 6 months. Riviera data is a bit sketchy at present so I would ignore that, just put it in for reference.


----------



## hlhlaw07

CastAStone said:


> I wonder that too. Not sure why anyone would want to pay once a year when they'll give you 12 months same as cash.
> 
> I wonder how much of it is instead that as long as it is 2020, the buyer will pay dues on any 2020 points you have. But once it's 2021 the buyer will pay dues on your 2021 points and your 2020 points become a free bonus.


I pay once a year as I usually catch a sale on Disney gift cards towards the end of the year. BJ’s usually puts on a pretty nice sale if you buy in bulk. Gives a good discount on the dues.


----------



## sethschroeder

hlhlaw07 said:


> I pay once a year as I usually catch a sale on Disney gift cards towards the end of the year. BJ’s usually puts on a pretty nice sale if you buy in bulk. Gives a good discount on the dues.



Yup pay yearly, with gift card, and don't worry about it.

I can't imagine the number are that different because I am not going to be calling monthly to pay with a Gift Card so I would just let auto-pay take care of it (just don't want to worry about it).

If I could do autopay with a gift card then I would do that or if I had some crazy $5k-$10k-$20k in MFs I would pay monthly as well.


----------



## becauseimnew

Ruttangel said:


> Does this help anyone? I have worked out the cost per stay for end of August in a studio to see where my contract offer at Boardwalk would fit, I had to adjust the year's left to account for the fact mine is a stripped contract. Interestingly it comes in around BLT area for cost which I'm happy with. As these averages come down my contract will creep up this table, so I'll review it again in 6 months. Riviera data is a bit sketchy at present so I would ignore that, just put it in for reference.
> 
> View attachment 514592


That’s how I did my calculations, where did you find a Boardwalk contract for $95?!! Great price.


----------



## Ruttangel

becauseimnew said:


> That’s how I did my calculations, where did you find a Boardwalk contract for $95?!! Great price.


Got lucky, was up for $119 on a site and got a low offer accepted, I can’t link on here sadly, still a reputable one though. Title co. Is J Sweet which also seems well used on here in closing thread


----------



## CastAStone

Ruttangel said:


> Does this help anyone? I have worked out the cost per stay for end of August in a studio to see where my contract offer at Boardwalk would fit, I had to adjust the year's left to account for the fact mine is a stripped contract. Interestingly it comes in around BLT area for cost which I'm happy with. As these averages come down my contract will creep up this table, so I'll review it again in 6 months. Riviera data is a bit sketchy at present so I would ignore that, just put it in for reference.
> 
> View attachment 514592


I'd suggest if you're taking any money from savings OR if you're spending money that you would have otherwise put into savings OR if you're financing, that you shouldn't straightline the "burnout" of the contract buy in.

If you want to discount the out years to account for opportunity cost / cost of capital / time value of money, the number of years you would divide the buy in by would be (1-(r^n))/(1-r) where r is the savings rate AFTER inflation (so if your retirement savings is earning 8% it should be about 6%) and n is the number of years left. While this makes all of the numbers "worse" in terms of payback, it improves the standing of the 2042 resorts vis-a-vis the other resorts considerably.

If one is financing the math is more complicated, and worse.


----------



## Ruttangel

CastAStone said:


> I'd suggest if you're taking any money from savings OR if you're spending money that you would have otherwise put into savings OR if you're financing, that you shouldn't straightline the "burnout" of the contract buy in.
> 
> If you want to discount the out years to account for opportunity cost / cost of capital / time value of money, the number of years you would divide the buy in by would be (1-(r^n))/(1-r) where r is the savings rate AFTER inflation (so if your retirement savings is earning 8% it should be about 6%) and n is the number of years left. While this makes all of the numbers "worse" in terms of payback, it improves the standing of the 2042 resorts vis-a-vis the other resorts considerably.
> 
> If one is financing the math is more complicated, and worse.


I appreciate all that, this was just looking at 2020 costs. I have a AKL contract which is a much easier payback Calc. Just trying to keep it simple for new bidders out there to compare or maybe I’m justifying the impulsive purchase to myself.


----------



## Ruttangel

CastAStone said:


> I'd suggest if you're taking any money from savings OR if you're spending money that you would have otherwise put into savings OR if you're financing, that you shouldn't straightline the "burnout" of the contract buy in.
> 
> If you want to discount the out years to account for opportunity cost / cost of capital / time value of money, the number of years you would divide the buy in by would be (1-(r^n))/(1-r) where r is the savings rate AFTER inflation (so if your retirement savings is earning 8% it should be about 6%) and n is the number of years left. While this makes all of the numbers "worse" in terms of payback, it improves the standing of the 2042 resorts vis-a-vis the other resorts considerably.
> 
> If one is financing the math is more complicated, and worse.


Have you got a model in excel you can share?


----------



## Brian Noble

chunks said:


> The decline in active listings seems to defy logic/economics...unless there are just more listings elsewhere. Massive job loss, closed/limited parks, no specific end in sight...what am I missing?


For starters:


striker1064 said:


> It's been said repeatedly on these boards, but it's worth mentioning again - the real glut of DVC sales lagged behind the Great Recession by almost a year.



I think there are several other elements at play. For many of us, things are just much harder right now, and have been since about mid-March. We are all getting used to a new normal in our day-to-day lives, and there is significant stress in just getting through the day. In the big long list of things you might do, getting your DVC membership ready for sale is probably no where near the top of the list. Especially if you have school-aged kids you are probably spending much of your spare time wondering whether they should go back in person, if not how you will handle that, etc. etc. What to do with your DVC membership that you might or might not need is just not that important. It's easy to forget that here on DISboards, but we are not representative of even the typical DVC owner, let alone the typical WDW guest.

It also strikes me that people haven't fully wrapped their heads around  just how long things will be "different". How long will it take for the vast majority of folks to again feel comfortable traveling in airplanes, and being in large crowds no matter what precautions are taken? Even if only a modest fraction of people take a few years to get there, that's going to have an impact on demand for and supply of all things WDW.

Finally, some of this will play out in how broad-based and persistent the economic contraction is likely to be. I saw yesterday that one of the airline industry groups just extended their prediction that traffic will return to 2019 levels in 2024 (from 2023). The immediate economic impact is focused on a few particular segments of the economy: restaurants, travel, etc. But, as that drags on, the people in those industries will be buying less and the impact will fan out. Families might try to get an extra year or two out of the car they can no longer afford to replace, etc. It will take a good while for all of that to recover.


----------



## Brian Noble

CastAStone said:


> I'd suggest if you're taking any money from savings OR if you're spending money that you would have otherwise put into savings OR if you're financing, that you shouldn't straightline the "burnout" of the contract buy in.


I agree with you, but have mostly given up trying to convince anyone else of it. I don't know why, but the time-value of money is just something many folks either can't or won't consider. As an aside, timeshare salespeople take significant advantage of that fact.


----------



## CastAStone

Ruttangel said:


> Have you got a model in excel you can share?


Lets see if this works, I've never tried sharing a Google Sheet before:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D2dVGu7F606OIkvoVfT87nuSbiQJERzqkH8_q5nFt08/edit?usp=sharing
To edit it you will need to click Make a Copy in the File menu.


----------



## bookwormde

chunks said:


> The decline in active listings seems to defy logic/economics...unless there are just more listings elsewhere.  Massive job loss, closed/limited parks, no specific end in sight...what am I missing?


MY perception is that those who have 10k to 50K cash laying around to buy resale are likely those least impacted financially by Covid, with the exception of small business owners who may be severely impacted, so they are in a position to take advantage of any price pull back. While I do not have a way to quantify it, I think that DVD direct sales being totally shut down likely added to resale demand also since DVD would typically have been selling about 1000 contracts a month during that time


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> I wonder that too. Not sure why anyone would want to pay once a year when they'll give you 12 months same as cash.
> 
> I wonder how much of it is instead that as long as it is 2020, the buyer will pay dues on any 2020 points you have. But once it's 2021 the buyer will pay dues on your 2021 points and your 2020 points become a free bonus.


I pay yearly because I want to put it on a credit card for cashback AND not worry about making the payment each month.  Disney's auto-pay is only for direct debit; if it were credit card, I'd pay it monthly.  But I "pay myself" each paycheck, by transferring next year's estimated MFs into a savings account, and then paying in a lump sum when they are due the next year (though I wait till February's final due date to pay them).


----------



## lovethesun12

CastAStone said:


> I wonder that too. Not sure why anyone would want to pay once a year when they'll give you 12 months same as cash.
> 
> I wonder how much of it is instead that as long as it is 2020, the buyer will pay dues on any 2020 points you have. But once it's 2021 the buyer will pay dues on your 2021 points and your 2020 points become a free bonus.


This can work well for international owners. I have a visa with no foreign exchange fee, so if the exchange rate is favourable my plan is to use that to pay a lump sum. If the exchange rate is lower than usual, I have a USD account that I put money in for those scenarios, and I like to withdraw as little as possible from it, since I usually wait until the exchange fee is favourable before adding to it. Opting for payments in that case gives me more time to wait for the exchange rate to bounce back.


bookwormde said:


> MY perception is that those who have 10k to 50K cash laying around to buy resale are likely those least impacted financially by Covid, with the exception of small business owners who may be severely impacted, so they are in a position to take advantage of any price pull back. While I do not have a way to quantify it, I think that DVD direct sales being totally shut down likely added to resale demand also since DVD would typically have been selling about 1000 contracts a month during that time


Also since people that want(ed) to buy DVC probably already visit regularly, it’s likely they were sitting on extra cash from cancelled vacations, and have the option to take advantage of better prices with no ROFR.


----------



## Ruttangel

CastAStone said:


> Lets see if this works, I've never tried sharing a Google Sheet before:
> 
> https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D2dVGu7F606OIkvoVfT87nuSbiQJERzqkH8_q5nFt08/edit?usp=sharing
> To edit it you will need to click Make a Copy in the File menu.


1question DVC replaces vacation costs, so don’t you need to reduce the balance invested each year to account for that, say by $3,000pa


----------



## CastAStone

Ruttangel said:


> 1question DVC replaces vacation costs, so don’t you need to reduce the balance invested each year to account for that, say by $3,000pa


You could drive yourself crazy trying to get that level of precision in place, but if you’ve discounted the out years appropriately you can get really really close by taking the Cash cost Of your vacation, divide it by the number of points you’re buying to replace that vacation, and comparing the result to the number you worked out. 

I’d suggest using the price per point you can rent DVC points for (www.dvcrequest.com charges $19 for OKW and SSR, $20 for everything else, you can probably beat that if you rent privately) as your benchmark, as even when Disney has their deluxe villas for 35% off, renting is usually still cheaper.


----------



## bookwormde

7/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240-260% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

Brian Noble said:


> I agree with you, but have mostly given up trying to convince anyone else of it. I don't know why, but the time-value of money is just something many folks either can't or won't consider. As an aside, timeshare salespeople take significant advantage of that fact.



Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc.  I certainly didn't pull any $ out of other savings or investments for DVC.  I used my normal vacation funds - regular, not invested, gonna blow it going somewhere (soon) no matter what, fun money! 

I suppose I could run the time value of money calculation on everything I buy and feel really depressed all the time.  Yikes!  I have a budget and I don't worry about the money I spend that I didn't earmark for saving / investing as long as I am meeting my savings / investing goals. 

Any $ you spend on anything non-essential COULD be invested.  Do some people really figure out how much money they'd have if they didn't buy a new bedroom set and lived with their old one for 10 more years?  Just curious.


----------



## chunks

4luv2cdisney said:


> Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc.  I certainly didn't pull any $ out of other savings or investments for DVC.  I used my normal vacation funds - regular, not invested, gonna blow it going somewhere (soon) no matter what, fun money!
> 
> I suppose I could run the time value of money calculation on everything I buy and feel really depressed all the time.  Yikes!  I have a budget and I don't worry about the money I spend that I didn't earmark for saving / investing as long as I am meeting my savings / investing goals.
> 
> Any $ you spend on anything non-essential COULD be invested.  Do some people really figure out how much money they'd have if they didn't buy a new bedroom set and lived with their old one for 10 more years?  Just curious.




Depends on how expensive the bedroom set is .  But in reality, I think he is using this because we are talking about 10s of thousands of dollars and a life span of 20+ years.  The bedroom set is likely both cheaper and has a shorter lifespan.


----------



## linzjane88

Did anyone see the sweet price drop on Fidelity? $160 per point for a 160 point AKL listing 

How 'bout NO!


----------



## chunks

linzjane88 said:


> Did anyone see the sweet price drop on Fidelity? $160 per point for a 160 point AKL listing
> 
> How 'bout NO!




I think that is a typo.  I saw it yesterday morning and i think they messed up the posting based on the total price.


----------



## linzjane88

chunks said:


> I think that is a typo.  I saw it yesterday morning and i think they messed up the posting based on the total price.


Good catch- works out to be 118 a point. I would be a little cranky if my contract accidentally got listed for almost 50 bucks higher, lol!


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

chunks said:


> Depends on how expensive the bedroom set is .  But in reality, I think he is using this because we are talking about 10s of thousands of dollars and a life span of 20+ years.  The bedroom set is likely both cheaper and has a shorter lifespan.



My bedroom set is 26 years old (have replaced mattresses).  Every time I have to repair a drawer or something, I say I'm going to buy a new set - but I just can't bring myself to spend the $$$!!  However, I AM in the market for a DVC add-on.  

I was playing catch up and only skimming the posts.  I see now they were discussing if financing, taking from investments, etc.  Which is understandable.


----------



## Galun

This is just anecdotal evidence / experience...  We bought two contracts in March during the peak fear of corona virus, in the middle of the stock market crash.

We made multiple offers on additional contracts this week, at prices slightly higher than levels I paid in March.  Every offer had been rejected.


----------



## davidl81

4luv2cdisney said:


> Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc.  I certainly didn't pull any $ out of other savings or investments for DVC.  I used my normal vacation funds - regular, not invested, gonna blow it going somewhere (soon) no matter what, fun money!
> 
> I suppose I could run the time value of money calculation on everything I buy and feel really depressed all the time.  Yikes!  I have a budget and I don't worry about the money I spend that I didn't earmark for saving / investing as long as I am meeting my savings / investing goals.
> 
> Any $ you spend on anything non-essential COULD be invested.  Do some people really figure out how much money they'd have if they didn't buy a new bedroom set and lived with their old one for 10 more years?  Just curious.


Math wise DVC can be hard to "pay out" depending on many factors.  What I see is how many people who really look at time value of money and are concerned about having it down to the exact penny were really paying cash rates for deluxe properties anyway?  Honestly most people who are that analytical are going to have  a hard time justifying the cost of a deluxe resort every year etc.  The other factor that many of us owners find out after buying in is that the type of room you will stay at will change.  Like many of us we bought in based on number of nights in a studio (we bought 160 at first).  If we had only stayed in studios it's likely we would have never bought more points since the 160 I think gave us 10 days depending on time of year etc.  Of course what happens is your family grows or you just mess up and rent a one bedroom or two bedroom because of availability and then it becomes tough to go back.  I honestly think that is where DVC really gets us, it's not the first buy in, but the add ons from there as members start getting the bigger rooms. 

The idea of buying versus renting is interesting, but you also have to account for the increase in rental cost over time.  When I joined DVC (2008) $10 per point was the standard, now 12 years later it is $17-$19.  What will it be in another 12 years ($28-32 based on that growth rate)?  We think those prices are crazy right now, but 12 years ago you would have thought $19 per point to rent was insane.


----------



## Galun

davidl81 said:


> The idea of buying versus renting is interesting, but you also have to account for the increase in rental cost over time.  When I joined DVC (2008) $10 per point was the standard, now 12 years later it is $17-$19.  What will it be in another 12 years ($28-32 based on that growth rate)?  We think those prices are crazy right now, but 12 years ago you would have thought $19 per point to rent was insane.



There is also the option of buying at least one contract to be a DVC owner, and then having points transferred in when your travel plans call for more points.  One does not need to pay the high purchase price of VGC to get points every year, because most don't visit / stay on site at Disneyland every year.  Buy a contract at SSR (which in my opinion is currently the best balance among initial purchase cost, annual maintenance fee, and contract expiration), watch for and transfer in VGC points at a premium price, and you have full 11 month availability based on those points.  But you need the first DVC contract to be able to do that.


----------



## CastAStone

4luv2cdisney said:


> Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc.  I certainly didn't pull any $ out of other savings or investments for DVC.  I used my normal vacation funds - regular, not invested, gonna blow it going somewhere (soon) no matter what, fun money!
> 
> I suppose I could run the time value of money calculation on everything I buy and feel really depressed all the time.  Yikes!  I have a budget and I don't worry about the money I spend that I didn't earmark for saving / investing as long as I am meeting my savings / investing goals.
> 
> Any $ you spend on anything non-essential COULD be invested.  Do some people really figure out how much money they'd have if they didn't buy a new bedroom set and lived with their old one for 10 more years?  Just curious.


If you're buying DVC to _save money_ you should consider it. If you're buying it for other reasons (no one buys a bedroom set to save money) there's no need to consider it.


----------



## CastAStone

davidl81 said:


> Math wise DVC can be hard to "pay out" depending on many factors.


I don't think that's true at all. My math, which includes time value of money, currently shows

All resorts *resale *pay out over the contract vs renting points at the lower end of current resale prices, with Beach Club really the only one where precisely what you pay for your contract matters in terms of payout
All resorts *resale *paying out by a LOT vs booking a studio (or hotel room) at 35% off rack rates from Disney.
OKW, and SSR *direct *purchases pay out vs renting points
Riviera *direct *pays out vs renting points at $170/point (currently 150 pts for existing members or 200 pts for new members)
CCV *direct* pays out vs renting points at $180/point (currently 300 pts for existing members or 1000 pts for new members)
AKV *direct* pays out at vs renting points at $171/point (currently 500 pts for direct and resale)
What doesn't pay out? Direct purchases of more expensive resorts. But if you live outside of Florida and are able to make good use of the Gold AP benefit you can make 100 point purchases of all of those pay out too. If you were already going to buy 4 Platinum APs at $1195 each and instead are now able to buy 4 Gold APs at $720, you have saved $1900, or $19/point if you purchased 100 direct points. That makes the purchase extremely cost efficient, much more so than resale, so long as they keep the ability to buy Gold APs around long term.


----------



## Lorana

davidl81 said:


> Math wise DVC can be hard to "pay out" depending on many factors. What I see is how many people who really look at time value of money and are concerned about having it down to the exact penny were really paying cash rates for deluxe properties anyway? Honestly most people who are that analytical are going to have a hard time justifying the cost of a deluxe resort every year etc. The other factor that many of us owners find out after buying in is that the type of room you will stay at will change. Like many of us we bought in based on number of nights in a studio (we bought 160 at first). If we had only stayed in studios it's likely we would have never bought more points since the 160 I think gave us 10 days depending on time of year etc. Of course what happens is your family grows or you just mess up and rent a one bedroom or two bedroom because of availability and then it becomes tough to go back. I honestly think that is where DVC really gets us, it's not the first buy in, but the add ons from there as members start getting the bigger rooms.





CastAStone said:


> If you're buying DVC to _save money_ you should consider it.


The save money aspect is an interesting to me.  I did buy DVC to "save money" but it was to allow me to stay at Deluxe Resorts and do 1BRs and 2BRs when traveling with our kids/friends/family, and also to go to Disney more often.  I am *definitely* one of those people that when I have to pay cash each time, I balk at paying for Deluxe/Villa resorts (even if I can afford it) because of the price difference between Deluxe and Moderate resorts.  We'd do split stays so we could stay at a Deluxe/Villa for a couple days, but otherwise often stayed in Moderates and Value resorts. 

We also want to visit more often, and justify several short stays throughout the year.  But regular APs at nearly $1200 was too much for us (we're a family of 4); whereas Gold APs at $720 was enough savings to tip us over into wanting APs and being able to do long weeks multiple times.  For me, this also means I can still use my vacation time for other trips, and occasionally take the longer week+ trip to Disney (like we're doing next year, hopefully).

With DVC, I'm also looking at Unique Stays I'd never ever pay cash for.  If we're able to take our December trip, we're spending 3 nights in a CCV Cabin.  If I paid rack cash price, that's $12,354!  I'd never pay that.  And while, yes, I'm balking a little at the point cost for it - 297, for those who are curious - we have the points, weren't taking any other trips in 2020 due to other travels, and so are looking forward to splurging for our family in an accommodation we've been eying but would never pay cash for.

And maybe I'm EXACTLY the type of DVC owner that Disney wants, lol.


----------



## Cowgirl_Jessie

Big thanks to the gang here!    

We signed our contract for $63pp for 150 points at HH!  0 points for 20, 282 21, 150 22 (Feb use year).  The more I thought about the contract, the better it seemed for our individual case to have 0 points in 20, with the majority rolled into 21 that we didn’t need to pay dues on.

This was the 4th offer we made; most agents were not surprised, at least not vocally, that we felt low 60s was realistic.


----------



## sethschroeder

Galun said:


> This is just anecdotal evidence / experience...  We bought two contracts in March during the peak fear of corona virus, in the middle of the stock market crash.
> 
> We made multiple offers on additional contracts this week, at prices slightly higher than levels I paid in March.  Every offer had been rejected.



Are the equal contracts though? Points/UY/Banked/Stripped

Also looking up the ROFR thread it looks like $102 for 150/160 points at SSR? Those contracts can be had for $95 or less right now its just possible that your UY might not have as many listings so people are holding out or they are so new?

Are you checking multiple sites for listings as well? SSR shouldn't be too hard to find as the year goes by for less.


----------



## ldo

4luv2cdisney said:


> Many people don't consider it because they bought DVC instead of a larger trip to Europe or a new car, new deck, etc.


In 2014, we priced out a Dec DCL cruise and realized that $ would pay for over 50% of a 160 point contract at AKV!


----------



## Dean

CastAStone said:


> I don't think that's true at all. My math, which includes time value of money, currently shows
> 
> All resorts *resale *pay out over the contract vs renting points at the lower end of current resale prices, with Beach Club really the only one where precisely what you pay for your contract matters in terms of payout
> All resorts *resale *paying out by a LOT vs booking a studio (or hotel room) at 35% off rack rates from Disney.
> OKW, and SSR *direct *purchases pay out vs renting points
> Riviera *direct *pays out vs renting points at $170/point (currently 150 pts for existing members or 200 pts for new members)
> CCV *direct* pays out vs renting points at $180/point (currently 300 pts for existing members or 1000 pts for new members)
> AKV *direct* pays out at vs renting points at $171/point (currently 500 pts for direct and resale)
> What doesn't pay out? Direct purchases of more expensive resorts. But if you live outside of Florida and are able to make good use of the Gold AP benefit you can make 100 point purchases of all of those pay out too. If you were already going to buy 4 Platinum APs at $1195 each and instead are now able to buy 4 Gold APs at $720, you have saved $1900, or $19/point if you purchased 100 direct points. That makes the purchase extremely cost efficient, much more so than resale, so long as they keep the ability to buy Gold APs around long term.


Personally, from a financial standpoint, I want it to break even in 10 years to be reasonable without including long term assumptions about perks that could be taken away and are specialty options.  The life of the RTU is FAR too long for this to be reasonable IMO.


sethschroeder said:


> Are the equal contracts though? Points/UY/Banked/Stripped
> 
> Also looking up the ROFR thread it looks like $102 for 150/160 points at SSR? Those contracts can be had for $95 or less right now its just possible that your UY might not have as many listings so people are holding out or they are so new?
> 
> Are you checking multiple sites for listings as well? SSR shouldn't be too hard to find as the year goes by for less.


No but there are fairly easy ways to value points you do or don't get even adjusting for different use years.  Different home resorts is more subjective but ROFR and listing prices gives you some basis for comparison.


ldo said:


> In 2014, we priced out a Dec DCL cruise and realized that $ would pay for over 50% of a 160 point contract at AKV!


Apples and oranges though.  It might be very applicable to a given person's choices but isn't applicable from just a general $$$ comparison just like using DVC points for a cash exchange must be looked at on the basis of the value and cost of each one individually to make true comparisons.


----------



## bookwormde

7/31 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280-300% of average*

* Aggregating site is not updating so lower level is directly observed, upper level includes what is would typically only observed through the aggregating site


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

When I've crunched the numbers for DVC it pays out versus staying at moderate resorts.  We've rented DVC points before and it just makes sense for us to buy resale.  I might even consider a direct CCV contract if the promotions improve.


----------



## Dismrk155

Prices like the stock market are headed in the wrong direction. I'm taking a wait and see approach till after the general election.


----------



## ldo

Dean said:


> Apples and oranges though. It might be very applicable to a given person's choices but isn't applicable from just a general $$$ comparison just like using DVC points for a cash exchange must be looked at on the basis of the value and cost of each one individually to make true comparisons.


It might have had apples and oranges in it, but it was in 1 "leisure travel" pot. We would never have paid cash for DVC rooms. But, we decided we'd forgo the cruise and apply funds to DVC--no math crunching, just a gut decision (as I bet many also do). Otherwise, we might have used those funds to cruise on another cruiseline, take a beach vacation, etc.


----------



## glamdring269

Dismrk155 said:


> Prices like the stock market are headed in the wrong direction. I'm taking a wait and see approach till after the general election.



I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.


----------



## Dismrk155

glamdring269 said:


> I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.


I agree.


----------



## Dean

ldo said:


> It might have had apples and oranges in it, but it was in 1 "leisure travel" pot. We would never have paid cash for DVC rooms. But, we decided we'd forgo the cruise and apply funds to DVC--no math crunching, just a gut decision (as I bet many also do). Otherwise, we might have used those funds to cruise on another cruiseline, take a beach vacation, etc.


It's valid for an individual to decide where to spend their money and what's most important to them but it's not valid to compare from a general dollar cost comparison.  One is not exclusive of the other either.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

glamdring269 said:


> I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.


Not sure if it was in this thread but I have seen mentioned that the airline industry assumes there will not be a return to pre-covid traffic until 2024.

Personally, our plan was to buy into DVC in ~3 years.  If prices drop further we'll consider buying now but prices are way too close to peak to justify buying today.


----------



## davidl81

glamdring269 said:


> I'm just waiting in general. I think we are going to have economic factors in play regardless of the election results that will impact pricing, and I am not anticipating an upward pricing trend for awhile now. I'm actually most interested in seeing how folks react to the state of the parks and resorts once they realize these measures are likely to be in place for at least a year and even when we start to see them relax that I think you are still going to have a segment of the population be more resistant to participating in large crowds than before the virus. This is likely going to have lingering impact on demand for years.


Here is a thought that just crossed my mind.  Cash reservations are going to be restricted for at least the next year for normal rooms.  DVC will be fully open and there is a chance that they may be the only rooms available to book at points in 2021 (depending on demand for regular rooms of course).  I don’t know if cash rooms will be hard to get, but if they remain restricted I can see DVC maintaining or maybe increasing in value.  Just a thought.


----------



## Brianstl

davidl81 said:


> Here is a thought that just crossed my mind.  Cash reservations are going to be restricted for at least the next year for normal rooms.  DVC will be fully open and there is a chance that they may be the only rooms available to book at points in 2021 (depending on demand for regular rooms of course).  I don’t know if cash rooms will be hard to get, but if they remain restricted I can see DVC maintaining or maybe increasing in value.  Just a thought.


Disney isn’t going to shut down the resorts to the point that they don’t have rooms to rent when they have park availability.  DVC availability isn’t an issue.  Companies can’t rent dedicated reservations at $9 a point.  The value of DVC isn’t going up.


----------



## poofyo101

Brianstl said:


> Disney isn’t going to shut down the resorts to the point that they don’t have rooms to rent when they have park availability.  DVC availability isn’t an issue.  Companies can’t rent dedicated reservations at $9 a point.  The value of DVC isn’t going up.


That might be true. But some resorts are selling for higher than they were prior to COVID. AKV and Poly are both seemingly selling for higher now.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> That might be true. But some resorts are selling for higher than they were prior to COVID. AKV and Poly are both seemingly selling for higher now.


Offset by sharp declines on BWV and VGF. And I don’t agree with your assessment of Poly. AKV is the outlier.


----------



## poofyo101

CastAStone said:


> Offset by sharp declines on BWV and VGF. And I don’t agree with your assessment of Poly. AKV is the outlier.


I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys. 

Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
AKV was undervalued
VGF was overvalued
Could just be the market is adjusting.


----------



## ldo

what is the going rate for AKV and what was it last year? I haven't kept up with pricing. When I was looking in 2014, AKV was about $5-7 more than SSR, as I recall. Isn't that about the same now?


----------



## Brianstl

poofyo101 said:


> I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.
> 
> Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
> AKV was undervalued
> VGF was overvalued
> Could just be the market is adjusting.


According to https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/ the only resort that had a price increase year over year at WDW in June was Boulder Ridge. AKV was flat.  Poly was down $8 pp.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.
> 
> Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
> AKV was undervalued
> VGF was overvalued
> Could just be the market is adjusting.


i agree that AKV is undervalued vs it’s general awesomeness. I ran a regression analysis once to understand if total number of points at a resort and resale price were correlated and they were highly correlated. I can’t remember if Animal Kingdom is the second or third largest Walt Disney World DVC, but it seems just having a lot of capacity makes an impact on pricing. With a little scarcity, it’s just not that hard to get a room at seven months.

By the way for any other statistic nerds, a regression analysis to predict price with variables of total points, years left, and dummy variables for each monorail and Crescent Lake gave me an r-squared of over .9


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

poofyo101 said:


> I could be wrong. I have been trying to buy another poly for a few weeks and it seems that the inventory is much less than last year when I had purchased 3 polys.
> 
> Personally last year when I started shopping I had thought,
> AKV was undervalued
> VGF was overvalued
> Could just be the market is adjusting.





CastAStone said:


> i agree that AKV is undervalued vs it’s general awesomeness.


I love it as a resort but transportation will always be a huge strike against it.  As the price creeps closer to the monorail resorts it loses a lot of it's appeal.

Like most people though we have preferences and a hierarchy of the resorts.  AKL is awesome but it's not BLT or Poly.


----------



## CastAStone

CastAStone said:


> By the way for any other statistic nerds, a regression analysis to predict price with variables of total points, years left, and dummy variables for each monorail and Crescent Lake gave me an r-squared of over .9


This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting. 

The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.


----------



## davidl81

CastAStone said:


> This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.
> 
> The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
> View attachment 515263
> View attachment 515262


There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds.  It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal.  No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.


----------



## exchanger

CastAStone said:


> This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.
> 
> The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
> View attachment 515263
> View attachment 515262



I don't want to venture too far off topic, but this type of analysis is fascinating to me. I've been a programmer for 15+ years, and would love to delve into statistical analysis in free time. Any tips on where to start? Feel free to PM (I'm a newb on the forum though -- I think I can get them, but I am not certain).


----------



## sethschroeder

poofyo101 said:


> AKV was undervalued



Nah math has just not self corrected yet. People get AKV for SAP points and as the price increases and SSR decreases threads and math will change back to buying SSR and ignoring AKV.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.
> 
> The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
> View attachment 515263
> View attachment 515262



I can't see the prediction being true. While the rest of the data can be accurate BRV has a massive issue of CCV playing a massive role in its decline. You have a resort with 2x the lifespan, at the same location, and inside the main building instead of off to the side. BRV does have upsides in the types of rooms though.

Basically its like if BCV had a YCV to compete with then BCV would take a drastic hit IMO.


----------



## glamdring269

AKV is interesting. I really love the resort, and have stayed there multiple times, but see minimal need to own there as it is always easy to get into at 7 months. It's even easier to ignore it with the prices where they are currently.

I do understand that folks might buy specifically to get value rooms but that doesn't really appeal to me as it's either Savannah or bust at AKV for us.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

davidl81 said:


> There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds.  It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal.  No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.


All I can figure is people are buying for SAP and not paying attention to the expiration date.  When you're not planning to stay at the resort, it doesn't matter if the contract says OKW or SSR.


----------



## Dean

CastAStone said:


> This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.
> 
> The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
> View attachment 515263
> View attachment 515262


Have you run this cross referencing room prices at the various resorts?  Room prices are a pretty good marker of the inherent demand of a given resort.  $$$ per point for a given room type for a year is likely the best measure of the relative value of one resort to another.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> I can't see the prediction being true. While the rest of the data can be accurate BRV has a massive issue of CCV playing a massive role in its decline. You have a resort with 2x the lifespan, at the same location, and inside the main building instead of off to the side. BRV does have upsides in the types of rooms though.
> 
> Basically its like if BCV had a YCV to compete with then BCV would take a drastic hit IMO.


It's not trying to predict the future, its considering "if buyers are only taking into account these variables and no other ones, what would the price be?", and then see if there is real world variance with that. The variables I found created the best model were Total Points at the resort, Walkable to Epcot, On the Monorail, and number of years left, with dues and number of points per night making a very small impact as well. What the variance from the model is really saying is that the prices of OKW, BWV, BCV, and BRV can't be explained only by these 6 things. There is something else driving people to pay more for OKW and BCV and pay less for BWV and BRV. 

I agree that the existence of (and active sale of and significant incentives on) CCV has hurt BRV and is likely that "something else" for that resort. I'm guessing for BCV it's Stormalong Bay driving the difference. Less sure about OKW and BWV.


----------



## Dean

Starport Seven-Five said:


> All I can figure is people are buying for SAP and not paying attention to the expiration date.  When you're not planning to stay at the resort, it doesn't matter if the contract says OKW or SSR.


True but one needs to compare long term costs including up front, Opportunity cost, dues and inflation of dues.  The other variable for OKW, which would scare me immensely if I still owned points there (previously owned 552) is that in Feb, 2042 DVD will own roughly half (or more) of the resort) which could have a major impact on dues as well as usage.  Until we know what they plan to do (resell, college program, just rent it, close down part) it's a huge variable and risk.


----------



## CastAStone

Dean said:


> Have you run this cross referencing room prices at the various resorts?  Room prices are a pretty good marker of the inherent demand of a given resort.  $$$ per point for a given room type for a year is likely the best measure of the relative value of one resort to another.


I will check that at some point; programming in the resort prices is a PITA unless you know a better place to scrape them from than Mousesavers. 

I also considered including something like Trip Advisor scores or something else to indicate consumer happiness, but it's hard to separate out the Villas from the resorts. I wonder if Touring Plans has a metric.


----------



## Dean

CastAStone said:


> I will check that at some point; programming in the resort prices is a PITA unless you know a better place to scrape them from than Mousesavers.
> 
> I also considered including something like Trip Advisor scores or something else to indicate consumer happiness, but it's hard to separate out the Villas from the resorts. I wonder if Touring Plans has a metric.


I don't but it is the best way to compare the demand of one resort to another.  Part of the issue is that there is a subjective component of desirability.  I believe AK & WL have an inherently lower demand overall than some of the other DVC resorts.  Certainly every resort has it's champions and detractors but what the masses are willing to pay for a given room ultimately determines the value in $$$ and points.


----------



## TCRAIG

Brianstl said:


> According to https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2020/ the only resort that had a price increase year over year at WDW in June was Boulder Ridge. AKV was flat.  Poly was down $8 pp.


Of course WL/BRV price has increased - it’s the one I want to buy more of!


----------



## bookwormde

8/1 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

Since the aggregating site does not appear to be coming back I am now only posting what I can directly measure


----------



## bookwormde

Average listing price data from the 16th to the end of each month and ROFR data for the full month

I have added average actual selling price for April, May and June from DIS ROFR [] and April and May for the resller {} that posts actual selling price each month. The second number in OKW ROFR data is 2057

*I have added my new listing data for July and preliminary DIS ROFR data for July*

Again here is the format for listed under 5/1 for April 6/1 for May 7/1 for June and : Guess(New listings)[DIS ROFR][Reseller}

.........3/20 .....4/1 ....................5/1 .............................6/1 …..…..……...……7/1 …......................8/1 9/1

AKV 114 110(107) 105(110)[104]{104} 100(109)[103]{105} 96(117)[102]{111} 92(121)[112] 90

AUL 101 98(97) 95(98)[83]{93} 90(96)[ND]{95} 85(88)[88]{88} 82(101)[101] 80

BLT 150 140(147) 135(144)[145]{144} 130(148*)[138]{141} 128(148)[133]{141} 124(150)[139] 124

BCV 147 145(150) 140(143)[132]{141} 135(143)[ND]{144} 132(149)[152]{144} 130(152)[125] 128

BWV 126 120(120) 115(120)[119]{116} 110(121)[112]{116} 106(126)[110]{117} 103(125)[104] 100

BRV 100 95(100) 90(96)[92]{106} 85(103)[98]{97} 80(101)[97]{101} 76(110)[110] 72

CCV 155 150(150) 142(155)[132][146} 136(152)[138]{147} 128(154)[137]{147} 125(153)[145] 125

VGF 177 172(170) 168(163)[149]{157} 165(171)[153]{161} 162(170)[148]{157} 160(167)[154] 158

HH 81 78(76) 72(77)[ND]{75} 68(71)[ND]{71} 65(81)[78]{72} 62(80)[ND] 60

OKW 102 97(101) 90(104)[83/100]{98} 84(109)[88/104} 78(102)[95/99]{96} 72(110)[98/ND] 70

POLY 148 142(131) 136(136)[133]{137} 130(148*)[132]{140} 125(151)[140]{145} 120(154)[137] 120

SS 106 100(105) 94(100)[96]{98} 88(103)[92]{98} 85(104)[96]{101} 82(107)[95] 80

VB 67 64(68) 60(64)[ND]{63} 56(66)[63]{66} 52(ND) 50(64)[ND]{64} 48(72)[ND]  46


----------



## bookwormde

Below are the approximate averages from 3/31, 4/15, 4/30, 5/15, 5/31 6/30 and 7/31 for each resort for reduced contracts The data used is from the 2 largest resellers

The sample size for some resorts is getting small, also 1 or 2 contracts that are more than 20 above the average are impacting the averages



Reduced

……3/31                4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31       6/30       7/31      



AKV       110         109         109         104         96           ND          115

AUL        97           93           92           96           93           93           95

BLT         144         146         146         145         145         144         143

BCV        138         137         140         142         143         136         150

BWV      118         118         116         114         113         114         117

BRV        100         ND          94           94           94           94           94

CCV        148         150         150         148         128         146         146

VGF       168         168         168         168         166         166         167

HH          74           74           74           74           73           71           72

OKW      95           94           93           93           92           93           91

POLY      143         144         144         144         142         145         147

SS           102         98           101         101         102         100         100

VB          62           62           63           63           65           66           61


----------



## bookwormde

Since the variance between pending numbers and actual selling price is large, these should be viewed for their trend value whereas the sale prices from the ROFR threads and other sources are likely more useful for setting offer levels

Pending

……3/31                4/15       4/30       5/15       5/31       6/30       7/31                      



AKV       109         108         109         109         109         110         116

AUL        96           97           97           96           97           95           98

BLT         137         141         144         143         143         144         145

BCV        140         138         140         140         138         140         143

BWV      118         121         121         120         119         120         120

BRV        98           98           97           97           98           99           103

CCV        147         147         150         151         151         150         152

VGF       164         163         161         163         165         163         162

HH          75           76           75           78           76           75           75

OKW      93           93           93           92           94           94           100

POLY      146         146         146         146         146         149         153

SS           101         101         102         102         101         102         104

VB          71           67           67           67           68           66           70


----------



## bookwormde

My perception is that there has been a very significant increase in the average listing price, though a portion of that may be from the point mix (size of contract, remaining points, far above the market contracts etc)

Reduced contract averages and pending also gone up but much more moderately.

Although the data set is small, the difference between listing and selling price continues to be large


----------



## mamaofsix

davidl81 said:


> There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds.  It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal.  No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.


This is purely anecdotal, but for our family the difference is the points chart.  We're a big family and it's the only resort where we could afford to stay in the grand villas regularly.  And you pretty much need to own there to get those grand villas at high demand times.   All other room categories are also a steal compared to other resorts.

Less years on the contract is more appealing to us than longer contracts.  We only want to own for 20 years anyway. It means tens of thousands of dollars I would not be paying in annual dues, no headache in having to resell or rent out points when we don't want it anymore, etc.

In a nut shell, I'm willing to pay a bit more per point up front in order to save way more money in the long run.

Like I said, just anecdotal based on our family - but I'd imagine many others have the same thoughts, which explains the price.


----------



## davidl81

mamaofsix said:


> This is purely anecdotal, but for our family the difference is the points chart.  We're a big family and it's the only resort where we could afford to stay in the grand villas regularly.  And you pretty much need to own there to get those grand villas at high demand times.   All other room categories are also a steal compared to other resorts.
> 
> Less years on the contract is more appealing to us than longer contracts.  We only want to own for 20 years anyway. It means tens of thousands of dollars I would not be paying in annual dues, no headache in having to resell or rent out points when we don't want it anymore, etc.
> 
> In a nut shell, I'm willing to pay a bit more per point up front in order to save way more money in the long run.
> 
> Like I said, just anecdotal based on our family - but I'd imagine many others have the same thoughts, which explains the price.


That’s a very fair point on the villas and I almost brought it up in my first post.  I look at the timeline a little differently (not to say yours is wrong or mine is better) and I figure in 20 years when OKW has expired the SSR contract will have 12 years left on it and it will still have some significant value (even if it’s $30 a point) that would be fairly easy to resale.  Of course if you have maybe 200 points then we are talking about $6000 in 20 years which frankly is not that much money when you think that far out so I get your point.


----------



## davidl81

CastAStone said:


> There is something else driving people to pay more for OKW and BCV and pay less for BWV and BRV.
> 
> I agree that the existence of (and active sale of and significant incentives on) CCV has hurt BRV and is likely that "something else" for that resort. I'm guessing for BCV it's Stormalong Bay driving the difference. Less sure about OKW and BWV.


BCV vs BWV comes down to two things IMO.  Stormalong bay is the 1st things, but total number of DVC units is another really big one.  There are simply much more BWV points out there in the world and that hurts the value compared to BCV.


----------



## CastAStone

davidl81 said:


> There is no logical reason OKW non extended should be within $10-$15 of SSR unless people really value the two queen beds.  It has 12 less years on the resort and it’s location is sub optimal.  No parks to walk to, and does not have the Disney Springs tie in that at least SSR has.


Debate as old as time, I see...Here's some highlights from a nearly 20 year old thread on the topic. Interesting that one of the arguments for OKW was "Lowest Dues of any DVC"...not even remotely true anymore...



Richyams said:


> In my opinion, SSR is a poor deal.  It has the same tiny rooms as BWV and BCV without the premium location.  Its the same location as OKW, yet it has tiny rooms and a higher point schedule.  I can't see any advantadge to SSR over OKW.....except the later ending date.  That is a big one, but I really have to believe that there will be some way to extend older memberships in the future.
> 
> If it didn't have those same tiny, cramped rooms as BWV, it would be a no-brainer.





Dean said:


> Given those choices, SS is a no brainer.  Still, you could go resale and save some money.  If I wanted OKW points of 100 or more, I'd go resale.


----------



## sethschroeder

mamaofsix said:


> All other room categories are also a steal compared to other resorts.



BWV and AKV are both a wash vs OKW (maybe 2-3 points more or less for a week long stay typically). As BWV has hit the 105-110 spot for a good contract it is crazy to see a OKW '43 contract selling for 100/point. We are talking $5/point extra for BWV which is sometimes a couple points cheaper/expensive for a stay.

By the way OKW now has more expensive MFs than BWV/AKV as well and likely both are a more desired home stay location.


----------



## mamaofsix

sethschroeder said:


> BWV and AKV are both a wash vs OKW (maybe 2-3 points more or less for a week long stay typically). As BWV has hit the 105-110 spot for a good contract it is crazy to see a OKW '43 contract selling for 100/point. We are talking $5/point extra for BWV which is sometimes a couple points cheaper/expensive for a stay.
> 
> By the way OKW now has more expensive MFs than BWV/AKV as well and likely both are a more desired home stay location.


Probably depends on the time of year you want to go.  We often travel at peak times.  For a week next March, for example:

Grandvillas:  AK=772, BWV=805, OKW=489

2 Bed: AK=289-377,   BWV = 362, OKW = 301

1 Bed:  AK=230-272,  BWV = 276,  OKW = 222

Studio: AK = 116-144, BWV=139, OKW = 113

Since we'd mostly be interested in Grand Villas, the 300+ point savings per week is pretty significant.  And the other categories are a really good deal in comparison, too.  AKV it depends on your room category, but still a savings.  And a huge amount off compared to BWV in every single room type.

OKW might not be for everyone, but I do think the points chart is probably the #1 reason why someone would choose it over any of the others as a home resort.  Especially when it's one of the only resorts that often does not have grand villa availability at the 7 month window.


----------



## sethschroeder

mamaofsix said:


> Grandvillas: AK=772, BWV=805, OKW=489
> 
> 2 Bed: AK=289-377, BWV = 362, OKW = 301
> 
> 1 Bed: AK=230-272, BWV = 276, OKW = 222
> 
> Studio: AK = 116-144, BWV=139, OKW = 113



Sorry a little disingenuous to not point out the Standard view rooms which are super easy to get in March (just did it for next year at 9 months even. Availability charts are even pointing to March being really easy to get standard rooms.

As you can see AKV is also the same price, couple points more, couple points less with their standard view (not even account value if you get that). AVK standard room also super easy to get in pretty much every month.

BWV in March is going to be:
113 = Studio
220 = 1BR
306 = 2BR

You can see across the board again couple points more less.

Oh and miss out on BWV Standard rooms? Well guess what AKV Std and OKW are BOTH likely to be open at 7 months without issue.



mamaofsix said:


> OKW might not be for everyone, but I do think the points chart is probably the #1 reason why someone would choose it over any of the others as a home resort.



As pointed out when talking about Std views at BWV points charts puts it even with AKV/BWV outside of the Grand Villa. Flip side SSR has the Treehouses but haven't looked at them just know they are a really economical option for 3 BRs.


----------



## davidl81

mamaofsix said:


> Probably depends on the time of year you want to go.  We often travel at peak times.  For a week next March, for example:
> 
> Grandvillas:  AK=772, BWV=805, OKW=489
> 
> 2 Bed: AK=289-377,   BWV = 362, OKW = 301
> 
> 1 Bed:  AK=230-272,  BWV = 276,  OKW = 222
> 
> Studio: AK = 116-144, BWV=139, OKW = 113
> 
> Since we'd mostly be interested in Grand Villas, the 300+ point savings per week is pretty significant.  And the other categories are a really good deal in comparison, too.  AKV it depends on your room category, but still a savings.  And a huge amount off compared to BWV in every single room type.
> 
> OKW might not be for everyone, but I do think the points chart is probably the #1 reason why someone would choose it over any of the others as a home resort.  Especially when it's one of the only resorts that often does not have grand villa availability at the 7 month window.


As stated above you really need to include standard view for BWV since as an owner there you would easily get them at 11 months.
The only place where OKW has a true tangible point value is on the Grand Villas.  For a large group it is by far the best value in DVC.  It’s not fair to compare the Tree House Villas to them just because of size etc.
That being said it’s only a very small group of people specifically buying for Grand Villas and those buyers are buying big enough contracts (250-300 points) to get those rooms for the most part.  The Grand Villas alone should not keep a 160 point contract at the same basic price point of SSR.


----------



## Hopfather28

CastAStone said:


> This might be getting to literally no one cares at all but I thought this was interesting.
> 
> The model predicts a much lower price for OKW and a somewhat lower price for Beach Club, while predicting higher prices for Boardwalk and Boulder Ridge.
> View attachment 515263
> View attachment 515262


While I do think that an r-squared in that range indicates statistically significant evidence, using averages as opposed to randomly selected observations ALWAYS results in stronger association as it hides variation within the individual subgroups (in this instance each resort). Not to mention the potential for outliers on the highly influential extremes of the independent variable. I do however suspect that if one were to randomly collect data over the course of a month or so for all sales, you would still find a very similar model that is statistically significant albeit not with an r-square in the .9+ range. I also wonder if when looked at as a scatterplot of 50 or more randomly selected contracts if a linear regression would be appropriate or if there might be some violation of the equal variance assumption when one looks at the residuals.

TLDR: Love the stats. Predictions are fun. I'm a math geek. Now back to your regularly scheduled program.


----------



## Dean

CastAStone said:


> Debate as old as time, I see...Here's some highlights from a nearly 20 year old thread on the topic. Interesting that one of the arguments for OKW was "Lowest Dues of any DVC"...not even remotely true anymore...


The thing about timeshares is that thing change, that's one of the reasons I feel that one needs return of investment over around 10 years and why I feel one can't rely on current perks long term.


----------



## bookwormde

8/2 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average

For the week of 7/27 to 8/2 newly posted resale contracts at about 270% of average


----------



## Brian Noble

davidl81 said:


> Here is a thought that just crossed my mind. Cash reservations are going to be restricted for at least the next year for normal rooms. DVC will be fully open and there is a chance that they may be the only rooms available to book at points in 2021 (depending on demand for regular rooms of course). I don’t know if cash rooms will be hard to get, but if they remain restricted I can see DVC maintaining or maybe increasing in value. Just a thought.


The cash resorts are closed because no one wants to stay there right now. If there is suddenly demand, Disney is not going to keep resorts closed just to tell people they can't stay; those resorts will open. And, we know there is less demand than even Disney expected, because some cash resort opening dates have been pushed back or delayed indefinitely.

DVC is open because Disney doesn't "own" the rooms, and they are contractually obligated to operate the resorts if possible---there is language in the covenants to this effect. But no one wants to stay there either---witness the ridiculous number of reservations for rent from folks who had planned to go and are unable or unwilling for various reasons. DVC exchanges are sitting for the asking at RCI for the next month or two, and have been for weeks, when usually they disappear in hours.

In fact, if I were a betting man I would bet that a lot of those DVC Member reservations for later in the Fall are going to be cancelled when it is clear that the US has no better handle on COVID in late September than we have right now. I expect the COVID situation to be worse as some college campuses and K-12 schools start in-person instruction for the first time since March-ish. If that happens, we will see "Fall rush" DVC availability that is unprecedented.



CastAStone said:


> Less sure about OKW and BWV.


No idea about BWV. OKW may be a couple of things. One is that anyone who owns there at this point is likely a long-term owner and the churn level might be lower there than elsewhere. Two is that IMO they still have the best room size/layout of any DVC. I suppose one additional possibility is that buy-in cost is an out-sized consideration for some prospective buyers, which itself would tend to bouy what would otherwise be the lowest Orlando-area price. People who need the lowest-possible buy-in and care less about other considerations would be over-represented on the buyer side of OKW.

It's also just hard to capture some non-linear behavior, so maybe it's worth not reading to much into it.


----------



## RoseGold

I caved and bought a stripped VGF....  Now to see if it makes it past ROFR.

VGF is the contract I wanted long term and the one I thought would last long enough to pass down to my kid.  Now I'm STACKED and I can sell my others as the kids in my family outgrow Disney.  I've been patient and watching and I'm thrilled with this contract for our family!


----------



## JoshF

RoseGold said:


> I caved and bought a stripped VGF....  Now to see if it makes it past ROFR.
> 
> VGF is the contract I wanted long term and the one I thought would last long enough to pass down to my kid.  Now I'm STACKED and I can sell my others as the kids in my family outgrow Disney.  I've been patient and watching and I'm thrilled with this contract for our family!


What cost per point did you get?


----------



## RoseGold

JoshF said:


> What cost per point did you get?



Mid 150s. Considering it was in the high 160s (stripped) when I bought in fall 2019, I'm happy with that.  Maybe VGF will drop a few bucks more, but this was the contract I wanted, so I'm happy.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

Some interesting points at the end of this weeks DVC Show podcast.  They brought up the fact that ROFR not being exercised likely hurts direct sales in that resale becomes more and more attractive as prices drop.  Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct benefits have disappeared.
Team white card is looking better and better to me.


----------



## CastAStone

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct benefits have disappeared.


Here is the list of direct benefits you can currently access, as best as I can tell:

Epcot lounge
Concierge Collection / Disney Collection
Merch and food discounts
???


----------



## sethschroeder

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct



Like what? 

AP and Moonlight are the best ones along with maybe the discounts on food. 

None of them are gone just on hiatus. Enough to give me pause to buy direct but waiting to see if and when they come back. 

I semi watched the show this morning so missed it if he said more.

Also felt the show was a little cringy at times where it seemed pushy compared to informative but but have just been me.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

sethschroeder said:


> Like what?
> 
> AP and Moonlight are the best ones along with maybe the discounts on food.
> 
> None of them are gone just on hiatus. Enough to give me pause to buy direct but waiting to see if and when they come back.
> 
> I semi watched the show this morning so missed it if he said more.
> 
> Also felt the show was a little cringy at times where it seemed pushy compared to informative but but have just been me.



It's at the very end of the show and he mentions AP and Moonlight magic as two missing benefits.  He doesn't say AP won't come back but does go into why Moonlight Magic likely won't be back for a long time.  

This episode did feel like an advertisement for at times but I enjoyed it overall.


----------



## sethschroeder

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> It's at the very end of the show and he mentions AP and Moonlight magic as two missing benefits.  He doesn't say AP won't come back but does go into why Moonlight Magic likely won't be back for a long time.
> 
> This episode did feel like an advertisement for at times but I enjoyed it overall.



Oh I always like the episodes even if I don't like some of the points at time or think there is a little cringe (Rhino talking about fall cruises that you can still book).


----------



## disneykim17

CastAStone said:


> Here is the list of direct benefits you can currently access, as best as I can tell:
> 
> Epcot lounge
> Concierge Collection / Disney Collection
> Merch and food discounts
> ???


Also, Top of the World at Bay Lake Tower


----------



## Shelle88

disneykim17 said:


> Also, Top of the World at Bay Lake Tower


This is for all DVC members not just direct.


----------



## Louis morrell

disneykim17 said:


> Also, Top of the World at Bay Lake Tower



That's currently closed so you can scratch that benefit for now.


----------



## bookwormde

8/3 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average


----------



## davidl81

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> Some interesting points at the end of this weeks DVC Show podcast.  They brought up the fact that ROFR not being exercised likely hurts direct sales in that resale becomes more and more attractive as prices drop.  Pete also brought up the fact that most of the best direct benefits have disappeared.
> Team white card is looking better and better to me.


But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices.  Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation.  And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again.  Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.


----------



## Dean

davidl81 said:


> But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices.  Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation.  And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again.  Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.


Sales prices will drop before listing prices do.  It will take time.  Whether things just sell slower or price truly drop depends on how much and how long the overall economic impact is.  My view is that they will drop substantially.  With the last turn down DVD did very little ROFR preserving cash, I suspect the same is already happening this time around and some historically great deals will be clearing ROFR.


----------



## chunks

davidl81 said:


> But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices.  Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation.  And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again.  Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.




That isnt how disney would be thinking about this.  They dont care about protecting resale prices.  The only time they (if they were smart business people, which I assume they are) exercise ROFR is when they already have someone lined up to buy it direct from them at a premium (or can be reasonably expected to get someone shortly).  Since they foreclose on maintenance fee and mortgage defaults (which I imagine will be higher at the moment), the direct sales market is struggling, they already have RIV contracts for sale, and they are burning cash in general, I find it very hard to believe that they are going to exercise much ROFR.  Specifically, I think the foreclosures will be pretty much in-line with the direct sales of "sold-out" properties, thus limiting the financial upside for them to buy back even more properties.


----------



## Matty B13

People also have to remember that DVC can't ROFR every contract, and right now even if they have a little cash on hand to ROFR a random low ball contract, they don't have enough capital to ROFR enough to set a bottom for resale contracts.  Later this year we will see how many contracts are in distress when maintenance fees come due in January.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

davidl81 said:


> But as of right now we do not see any substantial drop in resale prices.  Maybe that happens later this year or early 2021, but it is just speculation.  And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again.  Too much capital deployed at RIV to allow resale to become too attractive.



It's amazing how detrimental DVC professes resale to be to them until there's financial issues they are dealing with.  Then it's crickets about it.    I would not count on them ROFRing much for awhile.   The majority of sales is to park visitors who are enjoying the magic and see the signs about DVC.  They'll go take the tour and be sold on Riviera and/or CCV.   The timeshare sales people will come up with some new selling points if necessary.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

chunks said:


> That isnt how disney would be thinking about this. * They dont care about protecting resale prices.*  The only time they (if they were smart business people, which I assume they are) exercise ROFR *is when they already have someone lined up to buy it direct from* them at a premium (or can be reasonably expected to get someone shortly).  Since they foreclose on maintenance fee and mortgage defaults (which I imagine will be higher at the moment), the direct sales market is struggling, they already have RIV contracts for sale, and they are burning cash in general, I find it very hard to believe that they are going to exercise much ROFR.  Specifically, I think the foreclosures will be pretty much in-line with the direct sales of "sold-out" properties, thus limiting the financial upside for them to buy back even more properties.



They haven't really exhibited a thought process like that of ROFRing when they have a buyer lined up nor do I actually think that's a very good strategy as it would be rather time consuming and eat into the margin.  I also don't think they view ROFR as protecting resale prices _for the members_ but I do think they are smart to take steps to keep them higher.   Over they years I feel there's a trend that if the gap between resale and direct gets large enough then there are people who will shift to resale and forgo the feel good aspect of buying from Disney and the perks.   Anecdotal but that's what my perception has been.  The easiest way to support high direct prices is high resale prices where there's not much of a fiscal argument to make between the two.  There are other things that will factor in depending on the person buying but if there's a big gap on the fiscal side it's a much easier decision for many.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> Here is the list of direct benefits you can currently access, as best as I can tell:
> 
> Epcot lounge
> Concierge Collection / Disney Collection
> Merch and food discounts
> ???



Points usable at Riviera (and future resorts)


----------



## RoseGold

KAT4DISNEY said:


> The majority of sales is to park visitors who are enjoying the magic and see the signs about DVC. They'll go take the tour and be sold on Riviera and/or CCV.



ROFR is also part of the sales strategy.  They use ROFR to close the deal to starstruck visitors who want "sold out" points.  No need to do that for a while.


----------



## Brian Noble

davidl81 said:


> And if prices do start to drop enough I am confident Disney will start ROFR again.


They didn't during the Great Recession.


----------



## CastAStone

Brian Noble said:


> They didn't during the Great Recession.


How long did they hold off for (to the best you remember)?


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> How long did they hold off for (to the best you remember)?



https://www.disboards.com/threads/a...-it-through-rofr-recently-section-iv.2661661/
You can check out this thread from 2011/12 not sure if there is anything before that. I have zero clue as I wasn't looking at DVC at that point. There seemed to be taken contracts in 2011 from the looks of it.


----------



## chunks

KAT4DISNEY said:


> They haven't really exhibited a thought process like that of ROFRing when they have a buyer lined up nor do I actually think that's a very good strategy as it would be rather time consuming and eat into the margin.  I also don't think they view ROFR as protecting resale prices _for the members_ but I do think they are smart to take steps to keep them higher.   Over they years I feel there's a trend that if the gap between resale and direct gets large enough then there are people who will shift to resale and forgo the feel good aspect of buying from Disney and the perks.   Anecdotal but that's what my perception has been.  The easiest way to support high direct prices is high resale prices where there's not much of a fiscal argument to make between the two.  There are other things that will factor in depending on the person buying but if there's a big gap on the fiscal side it's a much easier decision for many.




High resale prices exist because they have a product that people want.  High direct prices exist because they have a product that people want.  The easiest way to support high direct prices is to build something people want and are willing to pay for.  Exercising rofr has nothing to do with keeping resale prices up other than that it is a byproduct (if there are x buyers at $100/pt and Disney keeps taking the supply by ROFR, then the price is naturally going to increase).  If anything Disney would be interested in resale going down so they could buy more and increase their margins (assuming they had someone interested in purchasing it).


----------



## sethschroeder

chunks said:


> High resale prices exist because they have a product that people want.  High direct prices exist because they have a product that people want.  The easiest way to support high direct prices is to build something people want and are willing to pay for.  Exercising rofr has nothing to do with keeping resale prices up other than that it is a byproduct (if there are x buyers at $100/pt and Disney keeps taking the supply by ROFR, then the price is naturally going to increase).  If anything Disney would be interested in resale going down so they could buy more and increase their margins (assuming they had someone interested in purchasing it).



To an extent but resale has to be missing key things for people to forgo resale for direct at larger deltas.

Here is the future issues:

COVID19 is going to dramatically put "timeshares are bad" to the forefront
A larger percentage of buyers are from the "internet age" and soon the "cellphone age" meaning they look up everything online
As prices go down on resale it will be posted more that DVC is like "any other timeshare" with no resale market (most people right now even when selling come out fairly good) which will turn the general perspective when searching about DVC
As prices go down its hard to institute higher direct prices, its easy to put in a $20/point price increase on all resorts when resale is increasing
2042 contracts will start their steady decline in 2032 as they count down the decade to expiration, giving people the ability to buy a resale contract as a rental alternative vs today where its a large investment for 25+ years and thus people are more willing to splurge on direct pricing
Every resale contract that doesn't get taken lowers the next contract that much more, when a ROFR is exercised it does the flipside and raises the future prices as buyer A already has a contract and is not competing with buyer B on the next contract.
They have to balance lots of things and its not a simple task to unwrap it all.

Just to note there will always be people who are clueless but that will become more difficult as less people are from prior to the information age. It will also be harder to have "semi-clueless" buyers who only do a "is DVC a scam" search to find today that many people are happy with it.


----------



## glamdring269

I wouldn't expect a lot of ROFR activity anytime soon.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-loses-nearly-5-billion-as-pandemic-slams-theme-parks-11596573570


----------



## sethschroeder

glamdring269 said:


> I wouldn't expect a lot of ROFR activity anytime soon.
> 
> https://www.wsj.com/articles/disney-loses-nearly-5-billion-as-pandemic-slams-theme-parks-11596573570



Ya I talked to someone at one of the main 3 brokers today and they said "if DIsney lets that price get through ROFR" I laughed a little bit inside. Its like you know they have maybe taken 1 or 2 contracts since April right? Just doing their job though trying to drive up offer prices so that hopefully the seller agrees.


----------



## chunks

sethschroeder said:


> To an extent but resale has to be missing key things for people to forgo resale for direct at larger deltas.
> 
> Here is the future issues:
> 
> COVID19 is going to dramatically put "timeshares are bad" to the forefront
> A larger percentage of buyers are from the "internet age" and soon the "cellphone age" meaning they look up everything online
> As prices go down on resale it will be posted more that DVC is like "any other timeshare" with no resale market (most people right now even when selling come out fairly good) which will turn the general perspective when searching about DVC
> As prices go down its hard to institute higher direct prices, its easy to put in a $20/point price increase on all resorts when resale is increasing
> 2042 contracts will start their steady decline in 2032 as they count down the decade to expiration, giving people the ability to buy a resale contract as a rental alternative vs today where its a large investment for 25+ years and thus people are more willing to splurge on direct pricing
> Every resale contract that doesn't get taken lowers the next contract that much more, when a ROFR is exercised it does the flipside and raises the future prices as buyer A already has a contract and is not competing with buyer B on the next contract.
> They have to balance lots of things and its not a simple task to unwrap it all.
> 
> Just to note there will always be people who are clueless but that will become more difficult as less people are from prior to the information age. It will also be harder to have "semi-clueless" buyers who only do a "is DVC a scam" search to find today that many people are happy with it.



Agree that the internet millenial is going to crush the direct vs resale debate as it will become very clear that there is limited difference.  Disney is trying to get ahead of it with their restrictions.  However, as long as people want riviera, there will be a decent resale market, particularly with the ability to rent out points.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> Ya I talked to someone at one of the main 3 brokers today and they said "if DIsney lets that price get through ROFR" I laughed a little bit inside. Its like you know they have maybe taken 1 or 2 contracts since April right? Just doing their job though trying to drive up offer prices so that hopefully the seller agrees.


When I looked last week I didn’t see any evidence they had taken _any_. I’m 99% sure that the ones I couldn’t figure out were auction wins.


----------



## Dean

CastAStone said:


> How long did they hold off for (to the best you remember)?


It was a couple of years and prices dropped to maybe half of what they were just previously with those sales going through.  I remember people completing sales for SSR at and just under $40, VB for under $30, BWV for $50 and VWL for $42.50 and these were not dinosaur sized contracts.  This was not unique to DVC, other timeshares companies saw the same thing happening.  Companies held on to cash and they knew that anything they did buy back would likely be a while before they could turn it over.  That's not to say they didn't take anything but it was very little.


----------



## bookwormde

8/4 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


----------



## dvc lover 1970

Buy resale. We own at CCV love the resort. Wait another year...I thinknwe are heading into recession/depression and prices will be steadily drop.


----------



## becauseimnew

I think they finally hit a ceiling price on AKV - a 50 pt contract has lasted almost 24 hours on DVC Resale site. And an 80 point contract has been on there for over a week.


----------



## firedust

becauseimnew said:


> I think they finally hit a ceiling price on AKV - a 50 pt contract has lasted almost 24 hours on DVC Resale site. And an 80 point contract has been on there for over a week.



good! I'm waiting on AKL to settle down so we can snag a 100 point contract!


----------



## becauseimnew

firedust said:


> good! I'm waiting on AKL to settle down so we can snag a 100 point contract!


Stay away from my April 100 point contract


----------



## firedust

becauseimnew said:


> Stay away from my April 100 point contract


I'm more an October, or December, 100 point kind of girl


----------



## Brian Noble

sethschroeder said:


> Just to note there will always be people who are clueless but that will become more difficult as less people are from prior to the information age.





chunks said:


> Agree that the internet millenial is going to crush the direct vs resale debate as it will become very clear that there is limited difference.


I'm not so sure about this. For starters, millennials (Gen Y) are currently 26-40. These folks are actively buying timeshares right now. A Consumer Reports article from 2016 quotes:
_



			Though the median age of timeshare owners is 51, the concept resonates loudly with younger people. Among owners who have bought in recent years, the median age is 39.
		
Click to expand...

_
Those folks are almost certainly web-search-literate; the use of the word "google" as a verb appeared in popular culture as early as 2002.  Likewise, there are already plenty of timeshares that have little or no resale value, have similarly cosmetic differences between resale and retail, yet still sell ownerships at full-freight. Wyndham is a good example, but there are others. So, the information is there, and the differences are stark and usually very clear: a secondary-market purchase is just a better deal. So, why do people still buy from developers? My guess: people who buy timeshares _do not want to know that they spent more than they could have._ If someone doesn't want to know something, it doesn't matter what the facts are. That sounds hard to believe, but bear with me.

Think about how the business works. Timeshares are a product that is sold, not bought. Very few people go on vacation with a plan to buy a timeshare---DISboards company excepted, of course. . Instead, a family is on vacation having the time of their lives. They take a tour, where they are told that they can bottle this magical feeling they have forever, "vacationing for decades to come at the cost of a handful of trips like today's." This sounds like a grand idea---and, really, it is! But it is also just a little bit aspirational: it means taking more vacations, more often, in a little more luxury than they are used to. And this possibility is presented to them in a way that has payments that seem affordable for the next few years. So they buy.

Now, you have a new buyer who feels _really good_ about the decision they just made. Maybe they have kids who are in grade school, and they are imagining taking them on vacation every year in a way that they never have before. Maybe their kids are older and they are thinking about grandchildren down the pike. Maybe they are about to become empty nesters and imaging all the travel they've put off while they've been raising a family. Suddenly there is an easy way to do whatever it is that they are thinking about.

That person is probably not going to spend the next several days trying to come up with reasons why this good decision they just made was a bad idea. And, once that period passes, the timeshare is irrevocably theirs. Of course, _some_ will, because it is a lot of money. Some of those will see the cosmetic differences between resale and retail and convince themselves that they were right all along. Some will rescind. But, few enough will rescind that the overall business model still works for the developer, and the world keeps spinning.


----------



## limace

becauseimnew said:


> Stay away from my April 100 point contract


Me too! August for me though so we are good.


----------



## becauseimnew

firedust said:


> I'm more an October, or December, 100 point kind of girl





limace said:


> Me too! August for me though so we are good.


What price are you hoping to get? I’ll keep an eye out for your contract. I’m hoping to pay closer to $105/pt. Dream would be a loaded April  contract.


----------



## sethschroeder

Brian Noble said:


> I'm not so sure about this. For starters, millennials (Gen Y) are currently 26-40. These folks are actively buying timeshares right now. A Consumer Reports article from 2016 quotes:
> 
> 
> Those folks are almost certainly web-search-literate; the use of the word "google" as a verb appeared in popular culture as early as 2002.  Likewise, there are already plenty of timeshares that have little or no resale value, have similarly cosmetic differences between resale and retail, yet still sell ownerships at full-freight. Wyndham is a good example, but there are others. So, the information is there, and the differences are stark and usually very clear: a secondary-market purchase is just a better deal. So, why do people still buy from developers? My guess: people who buy timeshares _do not want to know that they spent more than they could have._ If someone doesn't want to know something, it doesn't matter what the facts are. That sounds hard to believe, but bear with me.
> 
> Think about how the business works. Timeshares are a product that is sold, not bought. Very few people go on vacation with a plan to buy a timeshare---DISboards company excepted, of course. . Instead, a family is on vacation having the time of their lives. They take a tour, where they are told that they can bottle this magical feeling they have forever, "vacationing for decades to come at the cost of a handful of trips like today's." This sounds like a grand idea---and, really, it is! But it is also just a little bit aspirational: it means taking more vacations, more often, in a little more luxury than they are used to. And this possibility is presented to them in a way that has payments that seem affordable for the next few years. So they buy.
> 
> Now, you have a new buyer who feels _really good_ about the decision they just made. Maybe they have kids who are in grade school, and they are imagining taking them on vacation every year in a way that they never have before. Maybe their kids are older and they are thinking about grandchildren down the pike. Maybe they are about to become empty nesters and imaging all the travel they've put off while they've been raising a family. Suddenly there is an easy way to do whatever it is that they are thinking about.
> 
> That person is probably not going to spend the next several days trying to come up with reasons why this good decision they just made was a bad idea. And, once that period passes, the timeshare is irrevocably theirs. Of course, _some_ will, because it is a lot of money. Some of those will see the cosmetic differences between resale and retail and convince themselves that they were right all along. Some will rescind. But, few enough will rescind that the overall business model still works for the developer, and the world keeps spinning.



So let me walk you my thoughts on it.

Median age of 39 in 2016 would be 43/44 now
39/40 is the absolute oldest to be part of "Gen Y" (35/36 in 2016)
50% of purchasers were older than 39 (as of 2019 52% of people are under 39 and older people are vastly more likely to have already purchased a TimeShare historically since its a long term investment typically and not a retirement resort/home)
Someone who is 39 was half way through college before 50% the US was even using the internet (1999-2000)
The iPhone (internet everywhere) did not launch until 2007
In 2007 someone who is 39 now would have been 27 and had half decade in the work force
2010 likely would be the first year of "always have internet access"
The first group to always have internet everywhere would like be a HS freshman in 2010, born in 1995, 25 right now
Over the next 2 decades older generations will be replaced with the younger generations who don't really know life without always having access to all information at their finger tips and always looking at reviews (Yelp - 2004, Google Maps Reviews - ????, Trip Advisor - 2000, Reddit - 2005).

You may disagree though 20 years ago that there would be a disproportionate number of young individuals who would be buying TimeShares than older individuals. I couldn't find data but I just think it makes sense that 20-40 historically would make up a large majority of Timeshare sales while older groups 50-70 would make up retirement community/condo/home purchases.


----------



## Brian Noble

Fair enough, but how many people do you know in their 50s who don't immediately look on their phones when they want to know something right now, today? Maybe I walk in unusual circles, but I doubt it's all that unusual vs. the average DVC candidate.

Either way, I think you are under-estimating the ability of humans to convince themselves that they are right despite all evidence to the contrary. (And there are plenty of natural experiments running right now that lend support to the idea that humans are very very good at this.)


----------



## sethschroeder

Brian Noble said:


> Fair enough, but how many people do you know in their 50s who don't immediately look on their phones when they want to know something right now, today?



Might just be who I work with but I do work in tech but most don't pull it out if they are even in their late 40s. Search is also a skill so going through school I think helps people learn the skill better.



Brian Noble said:


> Either way, I think you are under-estimating the ability of humans to convince themselves that they are right despite all evidence to the contrary. (And there are plenty of natural experiments running right now that lend support to the idea that humans are very very good at this.)



Oh I 100% know there will be people who are still easy marks and will purchase. I just think every new resort gets you closer to the saturation point of "easy marks". I also think Disney is proactively addressing this because knowledgeable buyers who choose to buy right now are probably 50/50 direct/resale while in the future its going to skew towards direct with the resale restrictions and more resorts falling off the booking catalog for resale points.


----------



## Brian Noble

sethschroeder said:


> I just think every new resort gets you closer to the saturation point of "easy marks".


The good news for Disney: the world constantly produces new families with young school-aged kids, some of whom find their way to WDW. So there is a steady supply of new people that they can match to the supply of new resorts. Those people would love to find an "affordable" way to go back frequently. To (slightly mis-)quote Blake (Alec Baldwin) in Glengarry Glen Ross: "They'll be sitting out there, waiting to give someone their money!" I suspect DVC will find ways to take it.

What's more, I think we collectively also underestimate the emotional power of the Blue Card and all that goes with it, of being "full" members with each and every point having the most flexible possible use, even if it costs more. After all, once we get high enough on Maslow's hierarchy, that's what money is for, spending on things that bring us emotional satisfaction. Disney's entire business model is selling happiness at a premium; they are better at it than anyone.


----------



## Dean

Regardless timeshares are one of the things that people tend to impulse and buy emotionally and many don't check out prior to buying.  More will check out the options after buying and some of those will be within their cancelation window.  Whether the current generation will be more likely to check things out, I really don't think so for other reasons just like they often buy other things they can't afford.  Most that realize it was a bad choice still won't cancel.  I'm not aware of anything that tends to turn otherwise smart and cautious people into mindless robots better than a timeshare sales presentation.  I just heard a call on the radio this week about someone who knew it was a bad choice but his wife wanted it so they bought anyway.  Timeshare sales people are some of the best salespeople in the world and they can play you like a fiddle even when you know more than they do about the subject.  It's really not about who or what % say no but rather how many say yes.  I've seen people who were educated here at DIS make horrible purchase decisions because "they trusted disney" or they "didn't want to buy used" or because the process was "simpler" and so on.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

becauseimnew said:


> What price are you hoping to get? I’ll keep an eye out for your contract. I’m hoping to pay closer to $105/pt. Dream would be a loaded April  contract.



I'm interested in AKL as well but want Feb or Mar use year and ideally 150-200 points.  

I'll leave the April, August, October and December contracts for you guys


----------



## MMSM

I must of read 1000 of pages on the Disboards about buying DVC.  A lot of posts have shown me the light in going for resale and not direct.  I can't even find Disney's direct listings- I have to talk directly with someone with all my information.  I usually go to Disney in March or April (spring break- I am a teacher).  I have only stayed (through rented points) at Beach Club (AND LOVED IT).  We were supposed to go to Poly and BLT this March but obviously we are rescheduled for this 2021 break.  I have a 13 and 15 year old so I always want studios that fit 5 people.  Moving forward, I can see wanting one bedrooms (although AK, BLT, VGF, OKW, and Riveria are only ones that fit 5?).  My husband and I are 41 and I am not sure if this is a good move. He keeps thinking there is "more than Disney" out there.  However, I can see my husband and I loving it and also hoping to have grand kids there.  What Use Year should I hope for?  A sales person chatted and told me September, Oct, or November is best.  Is it better to have smaller contracts like 100 or go for 200?  If I really love Beach Club should I try for that despite the higher payments and dues?  Or should I buy Saratoga and then hope for the best at 7 months that I can grab BLT, Poly, or Beach Club.  I am sorry for all these questions.  It is very overwhelming.  However, is this the best time for a buyer?


----------



## ldo

only you can decide. IMHO, I wouldn't buy a 2042 resort as I would hope to get my capital back selling at 10-15 year later. I bought a less expensive place we liked and were fine to stay (AKV) if the 7 month swap didn't work. It has worked about 50%. We're fine with staying at AKV then. Ideally, you want a UY right before your travel  patterns, so you have longer to use/bank if plans change. It's a lot of info. Good luck.


----------



## Dean

MMSM said:


> I must of read 1000 of pages on the Disboards about buying DVC.  A lot of posts have shown me the light in going for resale and not direct.  I can't even find Disney's direct listings- I have to talk directly with someone with all my information.  I usually go to Disney in March or April (spring break- I am a teacher).  I have only stayed (through rented points) at Beach Club (AND LOVED IT).  We were supposed to go to Poly and BLT this March but obviously we are rescheduled for this 2021 break.  I have a 13 and 15 year old so I always want studios that fit 5 people.  Moving forward, I can see wanting one bedrooms (although AK, BLT, VGF, OKW, and Riveria are only ones that fit 5?).  My husband and I are 41 and I am not sure if this is a good move. He keeps thinking there is "more than Disney" out there.  However, I can see my husband and I loving it and also hoping to have grand kids there.  What Use Year should I hope for?  A sales person chatted and told me September, Oct, or November is best.  Is it better to have smaller contracts like 100 or go for 200?  If I really love Beach Club should I try for that despite the higher payments and dues?  Or should I buy Saratoga and then hope for the best at 7 months that I can grab BLT, Poly, or Beach Club.  I am sorry for all these questions.  It is very overwhelming.  However, is this the best time for a buyer?


DVC only works well for DVC. DVC is not the only system out there anti doesn't lock you out of other choices.  March is the best UY for most if you'll travel March/April, Feb if you might start your time in Feb.


----------



## firedust

becauseimnew said:


> What price are you hoping to get? I’ll keep an eye out for your contract. I’m hoping to pay closer to $105/pt. Dream would be a loaded April  contract.


I think $105 is realistic. Depending on the economy, I think one might be able to hope for $100, but we will see. That's why we passed on the extended OKW that we had put a bid on, they wanted more than we would pay for an AKL contract. I'll keep my eyes peeled for your use years  strength in numbers!


----------



## becauseimnew

MMSM said:


> I must of read 1000 of pages on the Disboards about buying DVC.  A lot of posts have shown me the light in going for resale and not direct.  I can't even find Disney's direct listings- I have to talk directly with someone with all my information.  I usually go to Disney in March or April (spring break- I am a teacher).  I have only stayed (through rented points) at Beach Club (AND LOVED IT).  We were supposed to go to Poly and BLT this March but obviously we are rescheduled for this 2021 break.  I have a 13 and 15 year old so I always want studios that fit 5 people.  Moving forward, I can see wanting one bedrooms (although AK, BLT, VGF, OKW, and Riveria are only ones that fit 5?).  My husband and I are 41 and I am not sure if this is a good move. He keeps thinking there is "more than Disney" out there.  However, I can see my husband and I loving it and also hoping to have grand kids there.  What Use Year should I hope for?  A sales person chatted and told me September, Oct, or November is best.  Is it better to have smaller contracts like 100 or go for 200?  If I really love Beach Club should I try for that despite the higher payments and dues?  Or should I buy Saratoga and then hope for the best at 7 months that I can grab BLT, Poly, or Beach Club.  I am sorry for all these questions.  It is very overwhelming.  However, is this the best time for a buyer?


My husband and I are 41 and I am not sure if this is a good move. He keeps thinking there is "more than Disney" out there. *My husband and I went on a solo 2 night trip to Disney, it was amazing and he loved it. He can't wait for us to start taking more solo trips when our girls leave the house (they are still super young), so he thinks we should wait to buy until they are a bit older. We go to Disney every year, so I'm lost as to why he thinks we should wait. I did add up all our hotel expenditures for the last 5 years and he finally agreed that it might be the right decision. *
 However, I can see my husband and I loving it and also hoping to have grand kids there.  What Use Year should I hope for?  A sales person chatted and told me September, Oct, or November is best. *Have you read up on banking deadlines? https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/what-is-a-dvc-use-year-and-does-it-matter/  Forus we like to travel May & October, so we are looking at buying an April contract. If we have to cancel an October trip we have time to bank our points to the following year. *
  Is it better to have smaller contracts like 100 or go for 200?  *if you ever have to sell your contract it is easier to sell 2 - 100 point contract then a 200 point contract.*
If I really love Beach Club should I try for that despite the higher payments and dues?  Or should I buy Saratoga and then hope for the best at 7 months that I can grab BLT, Poly, or Beach Club.  I am sorry for all these questions.  It is very overwhelming.  *If you don't mind staying at Saratoga and want to save money I would buy there. I can't offer any other advice as we aren't owners yet, still waiting for the perfect AKL resale contract*
However, is this the best time for a buyer?  *From the data the fall is the best time to purchase a resale contract. If you purchase a direct contract today with an October UY, they should give you the 2019 points and should bank them, then on Oct 1 you'll get your 2020 points. 
Good luck with your decision!*


----------



## Brianstl

It is amazing right now that you can rent a dedicated reservation standard studio for five night AKV for $603 total.  Insane.


----------



## becauseimnew

firedust said:


> I think $105 is realistic. Depending on the economy, I think one might be able to hope for $100, but we will see. That's why we passed on the extended OKW that we had put a bid on, they wanted more than we would pay for an AKL contract. I'll keep my eyes peeled for your use years  strength in numbers!


How long do we have to wait to pay $100? I would like to be able to book our Oct 2021 trip by February.


----------



## limace

becauseimnew said:


> How long do we have to wait to pay $100? I would like to be able to book our Oct 2021 trip by February.


Um your guess is as good as anyone’s!  There’s not a chart that says “here’s how much prices will decline for each month of covid”. If I were you I’d start offering $100 now.


----------



## limace

I will say that people have had contracts as low as $92 at AKV in the last month or two.


----------



## HappyDisneyWife

I’ve been reading this thread quietly for a long time now, because I know there are people here that are much more knowledgeable about all of this... and I’ve learned a lot! 

An interesting point I haven’t seen brought up yet (that my sister and I have discussed frequently), is that this current situation seems to have some drastic differences from the Great Recession. During the GR, everyone was hit... hard. This round, although everyone has been hit similarly with quarantines, etc, _not everyone has taken a financial hit_. Some have very sadly lost everything, others have lost nothing, others still are doing better than ever... and each of them got a bonus from the government! Who’s to say how many DVC owners were hit hard enough to sell? & who wasn’t even affected? I do believe there will continue to be a trickle-down affect over the next few years to the stock markets, etc, but would that be enough for someone to sell their DVC if their job, life, & savings wasn’t otherwise hugely affected?

Just thought it was interesting & it keeps coming up in conversations outside of this board


----------



## RoseGold

HappyDisneyWife said:


> During the GR, everyone was hit... hard. This round, although everyone has been hit similarly with quarantines, etc, _not everyone has taken a financial hit_.



Not everyone was financially hit hard in 2008/09 either, but DVC did take a hit.  It just took a while to show up.  We haven't seen anything close to those drops.  I bought SSR in late 2019, and contracts are equal or worse than then.


----------



## sethschroeder

firedust said:


> I think $105 is realistic. Depending on the economy, I think one might be able to hope for $100, but we will see. That's why we passed on the extended OKW that we had put a bid on, they wanted more than we would pay for an AKL contract. I'll keep my eyes peeled for your use years  strength in numbers!



I have come across a listing or two for under $100 not even what they sold for.

Can't remeber where because personally not really interested in AKV ever.


----------



## Brianstl

RoseGold said:


> Not everyone was financially hit hard in 2008/09 either, but DVC did take a hit.  It just took a while to show up.
> 
> A VGC resale purchase in 2009 (recently put on sale at the time) would make you look like a genius right now.  We haven't seen anything close to those drops.  I bought SSR in late 2019, and contracts are equal or worse than then.


My wife and I weren’t hit at all.  We both were lucky to be in fields and have opportunities that allowed us both to actually increase our earnings. We weren’t looking for DVC then but got a great deal on our home.


----------



## becauseimnew

sethschroeder said:


> I have come across a listing or two for under $100 not even what they sold for.
> 
> Can't remeber where because personally not really interested in AKV ever.


Were they small contracts? I’m only interested in 100 points.


----------



## sethschroeder

becauseimnew said:


> Were they small contracts? I’m only interested in 100 points.



It would have been under 200 points more than likely since I typically have all my bookmarks setup to automatically filter under that amount.


----------



## MMSM

becauseimnew said:


> My husband and I are 41 and I am not sure if this is a good move. He keeps thinking there is "more than Disney" out there. *My husband and I went on a solo 2 night trip to Disney, it was amazing and he loved it. He can't wait for us to start taking more solo trips when our girls leave the house (they are still super young), so he thinks we should wait to buy until they are a bit older. We go to Disney every year, so I'm lost as to why he thinks we should wait. I did add up all our hotel expenditures for the last 5 years and he finally agreed that it might be the right decision. *
> However, I can see my husband and I loving it and also hoping to have grand kids there.  What Use Year should I hope for?  A sales person chatted and told me September, Oct, or November is best. *Have you read up on banking deadlines? https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/what-is-a-dvc-use-year-and-does-it-matter/  Forus we like to travel May & October, so we are looking at buying an April contract. If we have to cancel an October trip we have time to bank our points to the following year. *
> Is it better to have smaller contracts like 100 or go for 200?  *if you ever have to sell your contract it is easier to sell 2 - 100 point contract then a 200 point contract.*
> If I really love Beach Club should I try for that despite the higher payments and dues?  Or should I buy Saratoga and then hope for the best at 7 months that I can grab BLT, Poly, or Beach Club.  I am sorry for all these questions.  It is very overwhelming.  *If you don't mind staying at Saratoga and want to save money I would buy there. I can't offer any other advice as we aren't owners yet, still waiting for the perfect AKL resale contract*
> However, is this the best time for a buyer?  *From the data the fall is the best time to purchase a resale contract. If you purchase a direct contract today with an October UY, they should give you the 2019 points and should bank them, then on Oct 1 you'll get your 2020 points.
> Good luck with your decision!*


Thank you so much!


----------



## emilymad

HappyDisneyWife said:


> I’ve been reading this thread quietly for a long time now, because I know there are people here that are much more knowledgeable about all of this... and I’ve learned a lot!
> 
> An interesting point I haven’t seen brought up yet (that my sister and I have discussed frequently), is that this current situation seems to have some drastic differences from the Great Recession. During the GR, everyone was hit... hard. This round, although everyone has been hit similarly with quarantines, etc, _not everyone has taken a financial hit_. Some have very sadly lost everything, others have lost nothing, others still are doing better than ever... and each of them got a bonus from the government! Who’s to say how many DVC owners were hit hard enough to sell? & who wasn’t even affected? I do believe there will continue to be a trickle-down affect over the next few years to the stock markets, etc, but would that be enough for someone to sell their DVC if their job, life, & savings wasn’t otherwise hugely affected?
> 
> Just thought it was interesting & it keeps coming up in conversations outside of this board



I think the distinction is that not everyone has taken a financial hit *yet*.  We are just starting to hear about companies who are laying off people.  I think a lot of companies have tried to adjust to this "new normal" and it will take a while to see who was successful and who wasn't.  For large corporations it is bad PR right now to layoff mass amounts of people unless they really need to.  In my sector, we think we will see more layoffs starting next year.  I hope not but it seems that everyone is waiting for the virus to go away and when it doesn't adjustments will be made.


----------



## Kylie_1504

limace said:


> Me too! August for me though so we are good.


Hey hey hey I’m Looking for August too, It’s a unicorn  made a few offers but happy to wait it out. We can’t go there anytime soon.


----------



## AvidDisReader

Who to say where the prices finally settle.  I still cannot believe I picked up a resale AK contract for $84 a point in June of 2017.  Just 4 months later contracts were selling at $100 a point.  Sometimes you just have to be lucky.


----------



## HappyDisneyWife

Thank you all for helping me understand this better!


Brianstl said:


> My wife and I weren’t hit at all.  We both were lucky to be in fields and have opportunities that allowed us both to actually increase our earnings.





emilymad said:


> I think the distinction is that not everyone has taken a financial hit *yet*.


I knew as I was typing that I should not say _all_ were hit... as absolutes are a rarity.  However, I felt it may be _more_ of a truth then since the whole upset started in the financial sector. I am _very surprised_ that some, like Brianstl were able to do better! & I’m glad to hear it!

I agree it could very well be a “not yet” issue... but that gets even harder to parse out as we have an election coming up. I’m certainly not wanting to turn this political at all, but to simply add that some sectors are directly affected by who’s sitting in the White House... and if there is a change in hands, that will affect some areas that currently aren’t affected by the pandemic.



RoseGold said:


> Not everyone was financially hit hard in 2008/09 either, but DVC did take a hit.  It just took a while to show up.  We haven't seen anything close to those drops.  I bought SSR in late 2019, and contracts are equal or worse than then.


I read it was over a year before DVC prices really dropped... but what do you mean by “contracts are equal or worse than then?”


----------



## bookwormde

8/5 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280% of average


----------



## bookwormde

Active listing levels and changes since 7 days ago

DVC resale 313 up 11

Fidelity 148 up 2

TSS 138 down 9


----------



## davidl81

emilymad said:


> I think the distinction is that not everyone has taken a financial hit *yet*.  We are just starting to hear about companies who are laying off people.  I think a lot of companies have tried to adjust to this "new normal" and it will take a while to see who was successful and who wasn't.  For large corporations it is bad PR right now to layoff mass amounts of people unless they really need to.  In my sector, we think we will see more layoffs starting next year.  I hope not but it seems that everyone is waiting for the virus to go away and when it doesn't adjustments will be made.


The biggest difference is the insane amount of money the govt is pumping into various parts of our system to help most people not "feel" this.  Everything form increased unemployment benefits, payroll protection plan that is designed to keep people on payroll, treasury buying debt from companies to keep them afloat etc.  All of these things are making COVID not appear as bad as it really is.  And as long as we recover from this by 2021 from some type of vaccine/herd immunity/treatments etc the massive amount of debt we added to the country should be okay to handle.  The basic idea is the great recession was the economic system having a "true" downturn that is a natural ebb and flow of the economy (thus we didn't pass trillions and trillions of packages).  COVID is taking what was on the surface a strong economy and derailed it, but government intervention is much more warranted in this case.


----------



## Brian Noble

HappyDisneyWife said:


> this current situation seems to have some drastic differences from the Great Recession. During the GR, everyone was hit... hard. This round, although everyone has been hit similarly with quarantines, etc, _not everyone has taken a financial hit_.


I'm not sure the first part is necessarily true. The pain was pretty broad, but it wasn't universal. For instance, my partner and I both work in fields that are a little bit counter-cyclical.

As for the second part, it will take time for effects to ripple through the economy. Very specific sectors were the hardest hit right away: hospitality, personal services, etc. But, those folks then tighten their belts because they have less to spend and it starts spreading. For example, they might put off replacing that car to squeeze one more year out of it instead. That reduces auto sales, and the car companies start laying people off. And they spend less. And so on. (I use that example specifically because I saw that auto sales were down about 15% in July '20 vs. July '19. That's a *big* difference.) Some of that is exacerbated because people tend to spend less during uncertain/challenging times. The US consumer sentiment index fell off a cliff in March and April; there was a bit of recovery in June but we've lost almost all of those gains again.

As @davidl81 points out, one thing that _might be _different is policy response: the initial response to the recession was a lot of government spending, but that quickly turned into austerity measures which in hindsigth may have been applied far too soon. The response to COVID has likewise been an initial bolus in spending, but time will tell if we repeat the follow-on early austerity measures. It is not clear what the Federal appetite is for continuing support; the House and possibly the Executive Branch is on board, the Senate less so. My bet is that the Senate mostly compromises due to pressure from above, but the next week or two should bring clarity.

I'm not as convinced the recession was a "natural" cycle so much as a structural failure of banking policy, nor do I think the current situation is completely separate from structural issues in the current economy. But, both of those topics are getting pretty far afield for a DVC discussion.


----------



## CastAStone

I apologize if someone posted this and I missed it but DVCRM posted their July average prices and they are up significantly at many resorts. As has been noted in this thread and the lowball thread repeatedly, AKV in particular has seen a huge increase in price in 2 months for no real reason at all.
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

CastAStone said:


> I apologize if someone posted this and I missed it but DVCRM posted their July average prices and they are up significantly at many resorts. As has been noted in this thread and the lowball thread repeatedly, AKV in particular has seen a huge increase in price in 2 months for no real reason at all.
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
> 
> View attachment 516220



Their numbers for July seem off based on the ROFR thread, especially for AKV.  I realize they sell to people outside of disboards too but they just seem too high.  Regardless, there are lots of listings out there right now starting below these July sales prices.  Will be interesting to see what sort of prices they post for August.


----------



## ldo

is that average closed sales prices or listing prices? It's hard to imagine that AKV closed contracts average $118 when other brokers have listings for under $110. I think the average of closed contracts is more likely in the $105 range, IMHO, if I had to guess.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

ldo said:


> is that average closed sales prices or listing prices? It's hard to imagine that AKV is closing contracts averaging $118 when other brokers have listings for under $110. I think the average of closed contracts is more likely in the $105 range, IMHO, if I had to guess.



It's supposed to be final sale price.  If they sold mostly smaller contracts it's possible.  If someone is motivated enough they'll start looking into AKV resale contracts being registered and see what the sale prices are.


----------



## CastAStone

ldo said:


> is that average closed sales prices or listing prices? It's hard to imagine that AKV closed contracts average $118 when other brokers have listings for under $110. I think the average of closed contracts is more likely in the $105 range, IMHO, if I had to guess.


Sales price and given what AKV contracts were listed for on that site a month ago I believe it; I also believe that long term it will look like a 1 month outlier. You can already see inventory building and sitting on some of the larger sites; that will eventually lead to price reversal.


----------



## ldo

I'm not in the market to buy AKV, but it seems weird as a quick look finds this info from other brokers:
(# contracts, total points, average price listed, weighted average, lowest, highest)

Animal Kingdom Villas6511509$110.17$109.05$99.00$135.00
another broker has listings from $104-$112
TTS is $105-115
Why would anyone buy from a broker with an average of $118 when a quick internet search finds much lower contracts?


----------



## Brian Noble

CastAStone said:


> I also believe that long term it will look like a 1 month outlier.


I am wondering how much of that was fueled by the perception in June that things were getting better in a COVID sense. If we think back about how things unfolded, cases in May into mid-June were pretty good as we saw the flattening effects of the lockdowns in March and April. Sales agreed to in July were likely contemplated at least a few weeks prior. This matches the Consumer Sentiment data I posted a little bit upthread: there was a burst of optimism in June that ebbed again in July.

At least around my water cooler, the summer seems to have been a slow realization that we are going to be dealing with /waves _all of this _for a very. long. time. Prior to that there were at least pockets of "we just have to get through this and we can get back to normal." You still see some of this, but definitely less over time.


----------



## savvy101787

As someone who was looking at AKV contracts and had an offer accepted in July, that $118pp does feel a bit high. I had a pretty wide range of what I was looking for (contracts in the 100-200 point window) and where I was looking (at least 5-7 different sites) and wasn't seeing that too often. Some of the 100 point contracts went as high as $120pp for an asking price but I can't imagine they all closed that high. I ended up having an offer accepted for 160 points at $105pp.


----------



## CastAStone

ldo said:


> I'm not in the market to buy AKV, but it seems weird as a quick look finds this info from other brokers:
> (# contracts, total points, average price listed, weighted average, lowest, highest)
> 
> Animal Kingdom Villas6511509$110.17$109.05$99.00$135.00
> another broker has listings from $104-$112
> TTS is $105-115
> Why would anyone buy from a broker with an average of $118 when a quick internet search finds much lower contracts?


A few months ago all the sites were low on inventory and sellers had a lot of pricing power:


TinkB278 said:


> I just saw the latest $125/point for $100 point contract at AKV. No large number of banked points or anything. I just feel like this reseller really is trying to inflate the prices and what these are actually worth.





TinkB278 said:


> Another 100 point AKV contract for $125/pt....





bookwormde said:


> because the supply got low, there were quite a few AKV that came on the market at $10 to 20 above the the market.





CastAStone said:


> Usually AKV makes up about 10% of listed contracts. Right now across the 5 largest sellers it's about 6%. That may not sound like a lot but it's a 40% reduction in supply, and as a result, prices are rising. There's no reason to think that this is anything but a random fluxuation in the number of AKV listings. As a result the default expectation should be that a normal number of contracts will be listed over the coming days, weeks and months, and eventually prices will fall back to their normal levels.


----------



## sethschroeder

ldo said:


> another broker has listings from $104-$112
> TTS is $105-115
> Why would anyone buy from a broker with an average of $118 when a quick internet search finds much lower contracts?



Same reason some people hit their head against the wall?

Also that broker is most like Disney from when I have talked with them (saying information that is false but outline they are not sure lol). I also think it has to do that lower contracts they will buy themselves and likely not report.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/instant-sale/
As an example they will buy a 75 point contract with 2020 and 2021 points for $105/point themselves right now. Those instant bought contracts then go in to rental markets or get resold again for a higher price without the commission requirement.


----------



## chunks

sethschroeder said:


> Same reason some people hit their head against the wall?
> 
> Also that broker is most like Disney from when I have talked with them (saying information that is false but outline they are not sure lol). I also think it has to do that lower contracts they will buy themselves and likely not report.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/instant-sale/
> As an example they will buy a 75 point contract with 2020 and 2021 points for $105/point themselves right now. Those instant bought contracts then go in to rental markets or get resold again for a higher price without the commission requirement.



Prior to now...how did they do that without triggering ROFR?  I.e. if they bought an AKV for $90/point and then planned to resell it for $110/point, Disneyw ould take it from em.


----------



## becauseimnew

savvy101787 said:


> As someone who was looking at AKV contracts and had an offer accepted in July, that $118pp does feel a bit high. I had a pretty wide range of what I was looking for (contracts in the 100-200 point window) and where I was looking (at least 5-7 different sites) and wasn't seeing that too often. Some of the 100 point contracts went as high as $120pp for an asking price but I can't imagine they all closed that high. I ended up having an offer accepted for 160 points at $105pp.


I’ve been actively looking for a small AKL contract for the last month. I haven’t seen anything less than $120 for a 100 point contract. And even those don’t last more than 24 hours. The 50 pt contracts get listed for $135 and are gone in an hour.  If someone finds a 100 point contract listed for less than $115 please share with me.


----------



## linzjane88

davidl81 said:


> The biggest difference is the insane amount of money the govt is pumping into various parts of our system to help most people not "feel" this.  Everything form increased unemployment benefits, payroll protection plan that is designed to keep people on payroll, treasury buying debt from companies to keep them afloat etc.  All of these things are making COVID not appear as bad as it really is.  And as long as we recover from this by 2021 from some type of vaccine/herd immunity/treatments etc the massive amount of debt we added to the country should be okay to handle.  The basic idea is the great recession was the economic system having a "true" downturn that is a natural ebb and flow of the economy (thus we didn't pass trillions and trillions of packages).  COVID is taking what was on the surface a strong economy and derailed it, but government intervention is much more warranted in this case.


I wonder if things will look much worse after September--isn't September the timeline where businesses that took PPP loans had to hold employees without layoffs or something? My understanding was that they couldn't layoff until after that date but I could be a zillion percent wrong.


----------



## JETSDAD

chunks said:


> Prior to now...how did they do that without triggering ROFR?  I.e. if they bought an AKV for $90/point and then planned to resell it for $110/point, Disneyw ould take it from em.


It doesn't matter to them if it gets taken because they still get paid commission.


----------



## ldo

becauseimnew said:


> I’ve been actively looking for a small AKL contract for the last month. I haven’t seen anything less than $120 for a 100 point contract


smaller contracts, not just AKV, are in a different pricing category. I think PP's recent purchase of 160 AKV at $105 is probably close to market pricing currently for 150+ AKV points...will be interesting to see ROFR when they update for July. And, I bet we'll see SSRs going for low 90s, as well.


----------



## CastAStone

chunks said:


> Prior to now...how did they do that without triggering ROFR?  I.e. if they bought an AKV for $90/point and then planned to resell it for $110/point, Disneyw ould take it from em.


I think that was a feature not a bug. They got their commission from a desperate buyer without having to actually list the contract and find a buyer, and Disney taking it eliminates any carrying cost or long term risk. If prices do start seriously falling and Disney continues to not ROFR contracts, I imagine they will stop doing that.


----------



## Dean

JETSDAD said:


> It doesn't matter to them if it gets taken because they still get paid commission.


Actually they get paid commission on that one and the replacement contract both.


----------



## wreing

Brian Noble said:


> I am wondering how much of that was fueled by the perception in June that things were getting better in a COVID sense.



I also think this is a pretty standard pattern as the market incorporates all this info.  We started looking to buy our first house in 2008 and the market was similarly weird.  Buyers pulled back anticipating declines, sellers came off the sidelines to see if they could get out while prices were still high.  Since a lot of the sellers had flexibility, the completed sales were based on people buying who were LESS price sensitive than before.  

Now if there is going to be a big correction, sellers who have to sell will start to take lower prices and things will start dropping, like they did for houses in 2008-2009.  But maybe there is enough demand and sales keep up and prices stay about where they have been.


----------



## JETSDAD

Dean said:


> Actually they get paid commission on that one and the replacement contract both.


Replacement contract?


----------



## Dean

JETSDAD said:


> Replacement contract?


If a buyer loses a contract to ROFR they're usually moving on to a second and even a third contract in most cases.


----------



## JETSDAD

Dean said:


> If a buyer loses a contract to ROFR they're usually moving on to a second and even a third contract in most cases.


They are the buyer though for the instant offer deals.


----------



## Deeleebaker

ldo said:


> is that average closed sales prices or listing prices? It's hard to imagine that AKV closed contracts average $118 when other brokers have listings for under $110. I think the average of closed contracts is more likely in the $105 range, IMHO, if I had to guess.



As someone who just bought a 100 point AKV for $122, it was because I have a $15,000 budget, love AKV and hope to stay there in 2021. I was going to wait until later in the year, wanted to spend closer to $100 and originally was content to get a stripped contract to go in 2022, but coronavirus had me needing a vacation sooner. Of course, now it’s highly likely I won’t be able to go in 2021, but as my calculus teacher used to say, hindsight is 20/20.


----------



## ldo

Deeleebaker said:


> As someone who just bought a 100 point AKV for $122,


sorry, I should have said 150+ AKV points contracts. Smaller contracts always go for a premium. Enjoy your AKV!


----------



## Deeleebaker

ldo said:


> sorry, I should have said 150+ AKV points contracts. Smaller contracts always go for a premium. Enjoy your AKV!


I will, eventually. It would be interesting to see if DVC Resale is selling mostly 150- contracts and that’s driving the average. I could probably have afforded 150 or more, but only if I financed some, and that seemed imprudent during a pandemic. This was a purchase I planned for at least a year.


----------



## sethschroeder

Deeleebaker said:


> I will, eventually. It would be interesting to see if DVC Resale is selling mostly 150- contracts and that’s driving the average. I could probably have afforded 150 or more, but only if I financed some, and that seemed imprudent during a pandemic. This was a purchase I planned for at least a year.



DVC Resale has a large number of small contracts.

Which skews the pricing because they go "per contract" and no "per point" average (which makes sense when trying to show a higher price than what a "normal" contract would go for.

You can see here and sort by contract size:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/listings/
We have went over it on page like 50 or 60 of this thread that prices are partly "elevated" because of all the add-ons that people are shedding for premium right now.


----------



## sethschroeder

Just pulled all the listed contracts that have offer accepted or pending from DVC Resale.

312 Contract:
62 were 25-75 points
45 were 76-100 points
61 were 101-150 points
83 were 151-200 points
57 were 201-350 points
Rest were a 435, 471, 655, 700 point contract

35% of contracts were 100 points or less and with 20% being 75 points or less that is going to dramatically impact pricing in a more expensive manner.

No clue how quickly or when they remove contracts from their site? Maybe 30 days after closing?


----------



## Brianstl

I think the thing that is going to flood the market more than even dues becoming due is people not being able to rent their points out.  There are dedicated rentals sitting out there as low as $9 a point and nobody is biting at $9 a point.  A lot of people justify their purchase of DVC with the belief that they can rent out their points when not using them and make a little money off it.  It is far more likely than not that isn't going to be the case for an extended period of time.  People aren't even going to be able to cover their dues with what they are going to be able to make off rentals.


----------



## Dean

JETSDAD said:


> They are the buyer though for the instant offer deals.


Talking about ROFR situation.  If a broker buys it they're expecting to turn a profit.  In both cases the seller left money on the table.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Brianstl said:


> I think the thing that is going to flood the market more than even dues becoming due is people not being able to rent their points out.  There are dedicated rentals sitting out there as low as $9 a point and nobody is biting at $9 a point.  A lot of people justify their purchase of DVC with the belief that they can rent out their points when not using them and make a little money off it.  It is far more likely than not that isn't going to be the case for an extended period of time.  People aren't even going to be able to cover their dues with what they are going to be able to make off rentals.



They are part of the unique situation with unexpected expiring points though.  An opposing thought is that with the normal booking windows in operation and with WDW keeping resorts closed the rentals may starting coming at a premium.   I've seen more than one comment that for 11 month bookings people are still getting the rates they were prior to the pandemic.


----------



## JETSDAD

Dean said:


> Talking about ROFR situation.  If a broker buys it they're expecting to turn a profit.  In both cases the seller left money on the table.


Yes but the question was regarding ROFR on an instant purchase which is being bought by the broker....it doesn't matter to them if it gets bought back because they still are paid commission but there is no replacement contract.  Yes the seller is leaving money on the table but that is a given in that scenario (it's even in the disclosure on the site).


----------



## Dean

JETSDAD said:


> Yes but the question was regarding ROFR on an instant purchase which is being bought by the broker....it doesn't matter to them if it gets bought back because they still are paid commission but there is no replacement contract.  Yes the seller is leaving money on the table but that is a given in that scenario (it's even in the disclosure on the site).


They get their commission if it's bought back and they get the low point purchase to resell if it's not.  And if it's bought ROFR by DVD then they'll see others they might not have sold or as quickly, esp right now.


----------



## CastAStone

KAT4DISNEY said:


> They are part of the unique situation with unexpected expiring points though.  An opposing thought is that with the normal booking windows in operation and with WDW keeping resorts closed the rentals may starting coming at a premium.   I've seen more than one comment that for 11 month bookings people are still getting the rates they were prior to the pandemic.


There still just a ton more points in peoples accounts than usual though. There has to be. The broker model is outstanding at obfuscating supply, because the broker does not care if some people don’t ever find renters their points. So while at some point, supply will exceed demand, what will have to happen to bring prices down is people meaningfully undercutting the existing brokers elsewhere.


----------



## limace

becauseimnew said:


> I’ve been actively looking for a small AKL contract for the last month. I haven’t seen anything less than $120 for a 100 point contract. And even those don’t last more than 24 hours. The 50 pt contracts get listed for $135 and are gone in an hour.  If someone finds a 100 point contract listed for less than $115 please share with me.



on the ROFR page, several folks have recently had offers accepted at between 95 and 105 pp for 100-150 at AKV.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

CastAStone said:


> There still just a ton more points in peoples accounts than usual though. There has to be. The broker model is outstanding at obfuscating supply, because the broker does not care if some people don’t ever find renters their points. So while at some point, supply will exceed demand, what will have to happen to bring prices down is people meaningfully undercutting the existing brokers elsewhere.



However the biggest "competitor" is not participating in the market like they usually do - Disney resorts.  Of course demand is down but I was just was saying that it's not a given that rental prices are going to absolutely plummet because while the demand has decreased so has the supply (Disney).  Right now there's a glut of rapidly expiring points but there's possibilities of other scenarios playing out going forward.


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> There still just a ton more points in peoples accounts than usual though. There has to be. The broker model is outstanding at obfuscating supply, because the broker does not care if some people don’t ever find renters their points. So while at some point, supply will exceed demand, what will have to happen to bring prices down is people meaningfully undercutting the existing brokers elsewhere.


I think we already are seeing brokers undercut their own listed owners when it comes to points the brokers are stuck with either through chargebacks or other points they control.  I am sure the rentals we are seeing at the deep discounted prices our controlled by the broker. So when you see a $9 or $10 listing just assume those are the brokers points and the demand the broker is seeing has led the broker to determine that is the most that they can get.


----------



## davidl81

Brianstl said:


> I think we already are seeing brokers undercut their own listed owners when it comes to points the brokers are stuck with either through chargebacks or other points they control.  I am sure the rentals we are seeing at the deep discounted prices our controlled by the broker. So when you see a $9 or $10 listing just assume those are the brokers points and the demand the broker is seeing has led the broker to determine that is the most that they can get.


But those $9-10 point type of rentals are ones that are like two weeks out etc and if they cancel them i would assume they would go into holding or expire.  It's not like I can get a November reservation right now at $9-10, those are still going for $18-$19


----------



## lovethesun12

sethschroeder said:


> Same reason some people hit their head against the wall?
> 
> Also that broker is most like Disney from when I have talked with them (saying information that is false but outline they are not sure lol). I also think it has to do that lower contracts they will buy themselves and likely not report.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/selling/instant-sale/
> As an example they will buy a 75 point contract with 2020 and 2021 points for $105/point themselves right now. Those instant bought contracts then go in to rental markets or get resold again for a higher price without the commission requirement.


This is why I mentioned before I don’t even bother with some sites. I guess everyone has their favourite sites, but I find Fidelity is consistently the site that actually will sometimes list prices at or below the instant sale price. Some great negotiators have managed to get good deals In various places, but the $100pp 250pt BLT, $130 50pt poly etc...Those were the listed price, no negotiating required.


----------



## sethschroeder

davidl81 said:


> But those $9-10 point type of rentals are ones that are like two weeks out etc and if they cancel them i would assume they would go into holding or expire.  It's not like I can get a November reservation right now at $9-10, those are still going for $18-$19



$13 I think it was on this site until December. Likely could find cheaper if I cared. Like could get cheaper in spring if I proactively took all the persons points and outlined I wouldn't ask for any changes.


----------



## Galun

sethschroeder said:


> $13 I think it was on this site until December. Likely could find cheaper if I cared. Like could get cheaper in spring if I proactively took all the persons points and outlined I wouldn't ask for any changes.



I rented out a few hundred points last week at $13, 11/30/20 expiration.  I could probably have gotten $14+ if I had waited.  I had some time on Sunday so I took a lower price to deal with it all in one day.  It took me about 3 hours to rent them all out.  That time savings was worth the $1 discount to me.

If anything, based on how quickly I rented out the points in the middle of covid, it made me even more comfortable with owning DVC points.  My maintenance fee was less than $7.  I paid around $60 per point.  10% return for 3 hours of work.  That actually beats the S&P 500.  (annualized return of 9.8% over the past 90 years).


----------



## Brianstl

davidl81 said:


> But those $9-10 point type of rentals are ones that are like two weeks out etc and if they cancel them i would assume they would go into holding or expire.  It's not like I can get a November reservation right now at $9-10, those are still going for $18-$19


They are some that are almost two months out.


----------



## poofyo101

CastAStone said:


> I apologize if someone posted this and I missed it but DVCRM posted their July average prices and they are up significantly at many resorts. As has been noted in this thread and the lowball thread repeatedly, AKV in particular has seen a huge increase in price in 2 months for no real reason at all.
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
> 
> View attachment 516220


I had said a few days ago it seemed that Poly and AKV both had gone up in value and demand.


----------



## sethschroeder

poofyo101 said:


> I had said a few days ago it seemed that Poly and AKV both had gone up in value and demand.



Meh 

Plenty of Poly being reduced in to the high 130s and still not selling just on Fidelity.

Went through the numbers before but with 35% of the contracts at 100 points or less I think there is a incorrect analysis occurring looking at the average cost of contracts.

Its the same with AKV being over valued on that site. For me it's exactly what I looked at when listing my smaller BWV contracts though (sold through DVC Store). Was looking for a market where the pricing was inflated so it didn't look too expensive.

To be clear contracts from 150 to 1000 always seems to be in the same ballpark but high volume gets a slight discount. With sub 100 point contracts though they usually have a steep multiplyer on them because it's rare for the perfect UY to come up and the difference of 160 vs 130 on a 25 point contract is $750.

These are all just observed trends.


----------



## bookwormde

8/6 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average


----------



## bookwormde

sethschroeder said:


> Meh
> 
> 
> Went through the numbers before but with 35% of the contracts at 100 points or less I think there is a incorrect analysis occurring looking at the average cost of contracts.


Yes the analysis has lot of "noise" in it because of variable contract sizes, point status, and contract coming on that the market well above the selling range.

Like most data, looking at long term trends is the real value, not day to day oven one month to the next.


----------



## sethschroeder

bookwormde said:


> Yes the analysis has lot of "noise" in it because of variable contract sizes, point status, and contract coming on that the market well above the selling range.
> 
> Like most data, looking at long term trends is the real value, not day to day oven one month to the next.



I would like a data point on contract size typically on sale. It's just a hunch people are selling off smaller portions as they see an excess of points in their future with banking (not needing points) or in my case (sold 2 small contracts) saw an ability to upgrade to more points or direct.

Doubt we can get that without really going through the weeds on the comptroller site though.


----------



## BennyBoyWrench

On the latest DVC Show they hypothesized that resale will become more and more popular, not just due to lowering prices, but lack of benefits from buying direct: will Annual Pass discounts be sought after now you have to reserve your park entry, will they be able to do Moonlight Magic again? 
We've discussed resale rather than direct, but the fact remains, even if the benefits aren't around immediately; those 100 points are going to ensure membership for 40 years, so for sure, the benefits will return. Adding on will forever be the jewel of resale.


----------



## bookwormde

8/7 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 230% of average


----------



## Naglejen

Lorana said:


> I have a contract in ROFR right now through them. Absolutely agree!  Prompt, courteous, recapped all important information, and helped me seal the deal. 10/10, would work with again.


I’m just catching up on this thread, but just had to pop on and say I have also had a great experience with them - their broker is incredibly responsive, and ensures everything is clear. It is much appreciated from this first time buyer!


----------



## bookwormde

8/8 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 10% of average


----------



## bookwormde

8/9 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average

For the week of 8/3 to 8/9 newly posted resale contracts at about 190% of average


----------



## bookwormde

8/10 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average


----------



## gisele2

bookwormde said:


> 8/10 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average


Thank you for giving  us this information day after day.


----------



## bookwormde

8/11 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


----------



## bookwormde

8/12 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260% of average


----------



## bookwormde

compared to last week

DVC resale 275 down 38

Fidelity 133 down 15

TSS 120 down 18


----------



## chunks

bookwormde said:


> compared to last week
> 
> DVC resale 275 down 38
> 
> Fidelity 133 down 15
> 
> TSS 120 down 18




Ugh not good news...need those #s to skyrocket.


----------



## sethschroeder

chunks said:


> Ugh not good news...need those #s to skyrocket.



Its not really needed when the number of listings are still over the average and compound that with Disney not really taking any ROFR.

Long term the pricing will continue to slowly decrease with small spikes of extra low prices or new contracts being listed over true market value.


----------



## Red Dog Run

CastAStone said:


> If the Grantee is Disney Vacation Development my assumption is that the contract was ROFR'd? Does anyone know?


Thank you.  I was able to view several and find out the actual sale price.  I'm waiting in ROFR, so at least I can check every day.


----------



## Red Dog Run

sethschroeder said:


> Just pulled all the listed contracts that have offer accepted or pending from DVC Resale.
> 
> 312 Contract:
> 62 were 25-75 points
> 45 were 76-100 points
> 61 were 101-150 points
> 83 were 151-200 points
> 57 were 201-350 points
> Rest were a 435, 471, 655, 700 point contract
> 
> 35% of contracts were 100 points or less and with 20% being 75 points or less that is going to dramatically impact pricing in a more expensive manner.
> 
> No clue how quickly or when they remove contracts from their site? Maybe 30 days after closing?
> [


----------



## CastAStone

Red Dog Run said:


> Thank you.  I was able to view several and find out the actual sale price.  I'm waiting in ROFR, so at least I can check every day.


I have since learned that some of these come from sheriffs auctions and similar. So there’s no guarantee that something with a grantee of Disney is a ROFR.


----------



## bookwormde

8/13 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260% of average


----------



## bookwormde

8/14 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average


----------



## Kickstart

bookwormde said:


> compared to last week
> 
> DVC resale 275 down 38
> 
> Fidelity 133 down 15
> 
> TSS 120 down 18



The daily average for new listings, for the last week, has been around 2x the average pre-covid (based on your posts)... Do these listings imply resale sales have been over 2x for same time period?  Otherwise we should have seen these numbers go in the other direction, right?


----------



## bookwormde

Kickstart said:


> The daily average for new listings, for the last week, has been around 2x the average pre-covid (based on your posts)... Do these listings imply resale sales have been over 2x for same time period?  Otherwise we should have seen these numbers go in the other direction, right?


Yes, resales have been quite strong. though I do not have a direct baseline to compare to.  While prices and more of a buyers market is part of it, direct sales being 0 to 20% of usual may be a factor also.


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> Yes, resales have been quite strong. though I do not have a direct baseline to compare to.  While prices and more of a buyers market is part of it, direct sales being 0 to 20% of usual may be a factor also.


Isn’t summer peak season for DVC resales most years??


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> Isn’t summer peak season for DVC resales most years??


I have not seen a big enough variation for me to pick up, but that may have been my methodology, it is certainly possible


----------



## huskerfanatic7

i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic


----------



## Kickstart

I'm starting to wonder if July wasn't an outlier, and that the resale bottom for the year was in May.


CastAStone said:


> I apologize if someone posted this and I missed it but DVCRM posted their July average prices and they are up significantly at many resorts. As has been noted in this thread and the lowball thread repeatedly, AKV in particular has seen a huge increase in price in 2 months for no real reason at all.
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
> 
> View attachment 516220



The next few months will be telling.


----------



## EM Lawrence

huskerfanatic7 said:


> i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic


I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.  As the Covid situation gets more serious, I don’t think sales demand will remain strong.  I’m not optimistic about the economy or the Covid situation.  I hope I’m wrong on both counts!


----------



## CastAStone

huskerfanatic7 said:


> i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic


Most of the predictions around here were that the prices wouldn’t seriously drop until end of year when dues come due for 2021.


----------



## Kickstart

EM Lawrence said:


> I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.  As the Covid situation gets more serious, I don’t think sales demand will remain strong.  I’m not optimistic about the economy or the Covid situation.  I hope I’m wrong on both counts!



I think there's some truth to this.

I also think this "recession" has been very asymmetrical.  With many upper middle class families, with dual incomes and fortunate enough to have non-retirement money in the stock market (which is doing great right now) finding themselves with some extra free cash flow (having cut back on dining-out and having canceled their summer vacations)... feeling "covid cabin fever" and looking ahead to next summer.

I also don't think this demand will remain strong... but I also didn't think June/July would be so strong, or that Disney would start ROFR back up so soon (which tells me direct demand is doing better than expected).

If a vaccine comes out this fall, and if they make enough of it, and if enough people are willing to get it (lots of if's there, I know).. we may find the economy won't be in as bad of shape as we thought it would be - which would be great! But not so great for those betting against the market (or the DVC market).


----------



## Royal Consort

EM Lawrence said:


> I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.



Never been a better time for me to buy. Lost 3 vactions already due to lockdown and really nothing to spend money on stuck at home. This gave me the spare income to put towards DVC which would have gone towards the vacations this year.


----------



## Aussie RJ

Royal Consort said:


> Never been a better time for me to buy. Lost 3 vactions already due to lockdown and really nothing to spend money on stuck at home. This gave me the spare income to put towards DVC which would have gone towards the vacations this year.


Same, canceled vacation funds diverted into new contracts. I assume this would be the case for much of the current demand.


----------



## Dismrk155

My funds went to 4 new tires on the car, new furnace and while house A/C and a stand by generator for the house. Next year's none  trips will look onto real property in Florida instead of owning air.


----------



## CastAStone

Aussie RJ said:


> Same, canceled vacation funds diverted into new contracts. I assume this would be the case for much of the current demand.


It’s a fair point. Our Disneyland/Hawaii vacation was budgeted at $8000 and it’s cancellation is part of why we have the money to buy.


----------



## Aussie RJ

CastAStone said:


> It’s a fair point. Our Disneyland/Hawaii vacation was budgeted at $8000 and it’s cancellation is part of why we have the money to buy.


I received $8k just for flight refunds. Then the rental income for points I was going to use and park tickets, Insurance’s..


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

huskerfanatic7 said:


> i am a bit suprised the resale prices haven't gone down more since the start of the pandemic


Any time people think there is going to be a discount the demand increases substantially.  Think about stores that go out of business and sell 1/2 the store almost instantly at prices that are no better than a typical weekly sale.

It's often cited that DVC prices during the 2008 recession didn't bottom until a couple years after the stock market.  I think the same would have to be true in this case as you have to see demand decrease.  We have a 100 page thread here tracking prices so obviously there is still demand. 

Will it ever happen?  Hard to say.  This recession has disproportionately affected retail/service employees who are likely not in the economic class that frequent DVC.  The only case I could see for a mass DVC sell off is if masks and travel restrictions persist for a long period and people start to see points expiring worthless.


----------



## Naglejen

EM Lawrence said:


> I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.


This is literally why we have two contracts in ROFR right now!


----------



## sethschroeder

I think it's less mass sell off and instead little to no ROFR in tandem with a slow decrease in price. 

Remeber when you look back at previous ROFR threads think of each taken contract as a small increase to pricing as that individual has to buy another contract thus bidding against other individuals. 

If however that person gets the contract there is now less people looking at contracts. 

Also someone getting a contract taken I would suspect in the past is then more likely to increase their future offer prices. 

Finally ROFR also plays a roll in brokers setting a baseline market price. They can do that even without ROFR but it's harder for them especially as contracts sit on the market for 2, 3, 4 or more weeks. 

The month of October will be the bell weather in my opinion on what is going to happen as we will be past the 100 to 125 point increase which will for sure cause at least a few ROFR over the next month.


----------



## Aussie RJ

Starport Seven-Five said:


> The only case I could see for a mass DVC sell off is if masks and travel restrictions persist for a long period and people start to see points expiring worthless.


I agree with this. Although I’m reminded that I bought for a 20+ year vacation plan. If one or two years don’t work out, then let’s look forward to year three and four. If I can’t travel in 2021 I hope domestically at least we see a spike in rental interest. In saying that it wasn’t too difficult to rent this year although I would have preferred a few more dollars per point. I never thought I would have to rent points btw..


----------



## bookwormde

8/15 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average


----------



## Leahc117

i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points.  I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed.  2.  I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up.   Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract?  I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.


----------



## poofyo101

Leahc117 said:


> i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points.  I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed.  2.  I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up.   Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract?  I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.



Depending on the price point you are trying to achieve, I would try now. Disney was buying back last year anything below 100 before dues and closing were considered.


----------



## Nabas

Starport Seven-Five said:


> It's often cited that DVC prices during the 2008 recession didn't bottom until a couple years after the stock market.  I think the same would have to be true in this case as you have to see demand decrease.  We have a 100 page thread here tracking prices so obviously there is still demand.


Yes, prices bottomed out in 2010 and only slightly improved in 2011/2012.


----------



## Spark65

Leahc117 said:


> i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points.  I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed.  2.  I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up.   Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract?  I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.



What you see listed for pricing is negotiable. Offer up a price on one of the listings you feel your comfortable with lowball if you want too the worst they will say is NO. 

When I grew up NO was my parents favorite word so I am mute to the word now


----------



## CastAStone

Leahc117 said:


> i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points.  I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed.  2.  I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up.   Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract?  I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.


I think prices will, in general, fall over the next 6-9 months months as an increase in white collar job losses solidifies and people lose government backstops, and as people (fingers crossed) start using vacation money for vacations again.

Will they fall a little or fall a lot? I don’t know.

Will it impact all resorts equally? I don’t think it will.
I think SSR, Poly, and CCV will fall the most; SSR because it’s the “affordable” one that people who were stretching themselves were most likely to buy resale; Poly and CCV because they’re the ones most likely to still have direct sales loans against them - in other words, more than just dues are owed.    

Wait if you can afford to from a “when do you plan to use it” standpoint - you can usually find _something_ at AKV at 6 months out or so. 

If not, Bid what you want to pay, but I’d suggest not sweating the last few bucks if you can afford not to. Animal Kingdom Villas is certainly the most expensive it’s ever been but it’s also still one of the best “deals” in the DVC universe when compared to renting or paying cash for the same resort.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

I believe that a lot more layoffs are coming unfortunately.  Larger companies will be looking to cut costs and some small businesses will find they just can't survive.  Hopefully there is a lot of progress with vaccines and treatments over the next 6 months.  If there isn't we could be looking at another recession.  

I worked for one of the largest Subprime lenders in the U.S. when things went bad in 2007 but quickly found a new job.  I was lucky as unemployment then rose and new jobs were hard to come by.
We are only 5 months into feeling the effects of Covid and unemployment during the Great Recession peaked around late 2009, well after the subprime meltdown.  Things will likely get worse with the economy before they get better.


----------



## ldo

Leahc117 said:


> i would love to pick up my first contact (150ish thinking AKL) oct or dec use year with banked points. I keep hesitating after reading posts on here because 1. It seems like people here are getting better prices than I see listed. 2. I’ve heard that later in year prices drop a bit due to 2021 dues coming up. Does it make sense to wait it out until around oct/nov for a resale contract? I’m planning to get 100 direct before oct 1...and want to add 150 resale.


I'd wait for Oct and start looking for AKV with banked points, or "no fees for 2020" contract, which is then essentially free current points. My broker said that in Oct people start to tend of offer "no 2020 fee" as part of the sale. That essentially knocks off $8/point for AKV if all 2020 points are available.
Again, maybe people are suddenly getting higher for AKV in the past 3 weeks, but I got no full price offers after a week listed at $108 for 160 AKV (nonstripped) at a major broker. It'll be interesting to see what ROFR submitted in Aug. look like, as those are actual sales prices.


----------



## Mattknite

CastAStone said:


> I think prices will, in general, fall over the next 6-9 months months as an increase in white collar job losses solidifies and people lose government backstops, and as people (fingers crossed) start using vacation money for vacations again.
> 
> Will they fall a little or fall a lot? I don’t know.
> 
> Will it impact all resorts equally? I don’t think it will.
> I think SSR, Poly, and CCV will fall the most; SSR because it’s the “affordable” one that people who were stretching themselves were most likely to buy resale; Poly and CCV because they’re the ones most likely to still have direct sales loans against them - in other words, more than just dues are owed.
> 
> Wait if you can afford to from a “when do you plan to use it” standpoint - you can usually find _something_ at AKV at 6 months out or so.
> 
> If not, Bid what you want to pay, but I’d suggest not sweating the last few bucks if you can afford not to. Animal Kingdom Villas is certainly the most expensive it’s ever been but it’s also still one of the best “deals” in the DVC universe when compared to renting or paying cash for the same resort.


 maybe I should of waited to buy.


----------



## Kylie_1504

Aussie RJ said:


> I received $8k just for flight refunds. Then the rental income for points I was going to use and park tickets, Insurance’s..



Taking an assumption that your Australian, can I ask as a fellow Aussie what is the best way to pay for a resale contract? 
We too have used our holiday money from this year to jump into the DVC world. 

We have just signed contracts and paid the $1000 deposit on the credit card but not sure what to do with the final payment and the best way to do it in terms of getting a better exchange rates. 
Any words of wisdom?


----------



## Aussie RJ

Kylie_1504 said:


> Taking an assumption that your Australian, can I ask as a fellow Aussie what is the best way to pay for a resale contract?
> We too have used our holiday money from this year to jump into the DVC world.
> 
> We have just signed contracts and paid the $1000 deposit on the credit card but not sure what to do with the final payment and the best way to do it in terms of getting a better exchange rates.
> Any words of wisdom?


We normally just transfer the funds directly from our bank account. I was looking at transferwise this time around to lower the fees but our closing has come in today so I think I’ll just transfer directly again.


----------



## bookwormde

8/16 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

For the week of 8/10 to 8/16 newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average


----------



## Kylie_1504

Aussie RJ said:


> We normally just transfer the funds directly from our bank account. I was looking at transferwise this time around to lower the fees but our closing has come in today so I think I’ll just transfer directly again.



Congratulations on passing!!!! 
I just checked out transferwise and it’s $987aud cheaper so I’ll definitely check it out. Thank you so much. 

Fingers crossed for travel for 2021.


----------



## TinkB278

EM Lawrence said:


> I think everyone was just bored at home during the lockdowns and decided to go shopping for future vacations, which kept demand high.  As the Covid situation gets more serious, I don’t think sales demand will remain strong.  I’m not optimistic about the economy or the Covid situation.  I hope I’m wrong on both counts!


I agree with you. I was reading yesterday that COVID could be an issue through 2021, possibly through 2024 and then also that it won’t ever go away. I’ve been wanting to buy DVC but am really struggling to make a move with so much Covid uncertainty. If moving forward we are living life with Covid outbreaks regularly I’m just not sure how safe of an investment DVC will be. Others must not be as concerned as I am about how our world will be moving forward given the crazy fast DVC sales that have been going on this summer. I wish I could be as confident as everyone else.


----------



## Spark65

TinkB278 said:


> I agree with you. I was reading yesterday that COVID could be an issue through 2021, possibly through 2024 and then also that it won’t ever go away. I’ve been wanting to buy DVC but am really struggling to make a move with so much Covid uncertainty. If moving forward we are living life with Covid outbreaks regularly I’m just not sure how safe of an investment DVC will be. Others must not be as concerned as I am about how our world will be moving forward given the crazy fast DVC sales that have been going on this summer. I wish I could be as confident as everyone else.



Don't let Covid ruin your life if it's here to say like the regular flu the world is going to have to move on. Don't let the naysayers stop you from living.


----------



## meanwoodwhite

Brian Noble said:


> I'm not so sure about this. For starters, millennials (Gen Y) are currently 26-40. These folks are actively buying timeshares right now. A Consumer Reports article from 2016 quotes:
> 
> 
> Those folks are almost certainly web-search-literate; the use of the word "google" as a verb appeared in popular culture as early as 2002.  Likewise, there are already plenty of timeshares that have little or no resale value, have similarly cosmetic differences between resale and retail, yet still sell ownerships at full-freight. Wyndham is a good example, but there are others. So, the information is there, and the differences are stark and usually very clear: a secondary-market purchase is just a better deal. So, why do people still buy from developers? My guess: people who buy timeshares _do not want to know that they spent more than they could have._ If someone doesn't want to know something, it doesn't matter what the facts are. That sounds hard to believe, but bear with me.
> 
> Think about how the business works. Timeshares are a product that is sold, not bought. Very few people go on vacation with a plan to buy a timeshare---DISboards company excepted, of course. . Instead, a family is on vacation having the time of their lives. They take a tour, where they are told that they can bottle this magical feeling they have forever, "vacationing for decades to come at the cost of a handful of trips like today's." This sounds like a grand idea---and, really, it is! But it is also just a little bit aspirational: it means taking more vacations, more often, in a little more luxury than they are used to. And this possibility is presented to them in a way that has payments that seem affordable for the next few years. So they buy.
> 
> Now, you have a new buyer who feels _really good_ about the decision they just made. Maybe they have kids who are in grade school, and they are imagining taking them on vacation every year in a way that they never have before. Maybe their kids are older and they are thinking about grandchildren down the pike. Maybe they are about to become empty nesters and imaging all the travel they've put off while they've been raising a family. Suddenly there is an easy way to do whatever it is that they are thinking about.
> 
> That person is probably not going to spend the next several days trying to come up with reasons why this good decision they just made was a bad idea. And, once that period passes, the timeshare is irrevocably theirs. Of course, _some_ will, because it is a lot of money. Some of those will see the cosmetic differences between resale and retail and convince themselves that they were right all along. Some will rescind. But, few enough will rescind that the overall business model still works for the developer, and the world keeps spinning.



I was watching some British disney vloggers just before I made my purchase. They were mid 30's obviously pretty big disney fans so must be on a few forums. Yet they bought their 100pt Rivera contract direct on site. They went on about how they plan to use it for a two week stays at OKW every other year. Which is perfectly fine. Apart from the fact that you have just thrown about $10,000 down the toilet.


----------



## sethschroeder

Spark65 said:


> Don't let Covid ruin your life if it's here to say like the regular flu the world is going to have to move on. Don't let the naysayers stop you from living.



Except if its coming back annually or with new outbreaks things will change. Now if the R0 tanks or the mortality rate tanks then things will possibly be more similar. Will there be mask requirements forever? No that is fear mongering by those trying to take a freedom stand regarding mask requirements by government/business. 

What you could see is permanent changes like family specific rows in planes, redesign of ride vehicles for additional spacing, lowering of capacity, additional cleaning requirements (increases costs of upkeep).

I think owning DVC is actually a better bet since Disney could jack up hotel rates and reduce park entry allotment except for Hotel guests in the future if they actively take to limiting park attendance.


----------



## Wakey

Kylie_1504 said:


> Taking an assumption that your Australian, can I ask as a fellow Aussie what is the best way to pay for a resale contract?
> We too have used our holiday money from this year to jump into the DVC world.
> 
> We have just signed contracts and paid the $1000 deposit on the credit card but not sure what to do with the final payment and the best way to do it in terms of getting a better exchange rates.
> Any words of wisdom?



I use HiFX (XE.com) here in UK for 4 contracts- has been flawless every time.


----------



## Wakey

We will have a Covid Vaccine approved by year end- likely the Oxford one, with good immune responses. USA have already secured huge amounts of doses which will start being run out en mass by Spring.


----------



## TinkB278

Wakey said:


> We will have a Covid Vaccine approved by year end- likely the Oxford one, with good immune responses. USA have already secured huge amounts of doses which will start being run out en mass by Spring.


I wish I was as optimistic as you about a vaccine. Sounds like the Oxford vaccine was not very effective in monkeys... 

BUT I really hope you’re right because every bone in my body wants to take the plunge and just buy DVC. Just waiting for some promising news.


----------



## Brian Noble

Spark65 said:


> if it's here to say like the regular flu


There are two conditionals here: If it is here to stay (it is) and if it is like the regular flu (it is not).


----------



## Spark65

Brian Noble said:


> There are two conditionals here: If it is here to stay (it is) and if it is like the regular flu (it is not).



They both make you sick and they both kill people. Some people say Disney should close to one and stay open for the other  I don't think I missed anything.


----------



## davidl81

Brian Noble said:


> There are two conditionals here: If it is here to stay (it is) and if it is like the regular flu (it is not).


So let's say no vaccine is viable, at some point then we will reach a level of herd immunity.  It will be at a significant cost of life, but overtime that is what will happen and the virus will mostly burn itself off.  It will continue to have flare ups, but there should be a base line of immunity at that point to where the flare ups are relativity minimal.  At some point life will return to normal since as a society we will just accept the risk (once again more likely once there is some herd immunity).  That being said herd immunity in the US would be a huge cost of lives (depending on how you play it out it would be somewhere between 2-3M people if we do not get better at treatments).


----------



## Heather07438

I see Covid 2 sided where DVC resale value is concerned.

I think the public health threat will subside by next spring, and next summer being close to normal.  There's just too much at stake and too many great players focusing on the problem to battle it from different sides from improved treatment, testing capabilities beyond just capacity, effective protocols to keep infection spread linear, vaccines rolling out, utilization of immunity (even if temporary) and more.  Each will take a bite, reducing the problem that could take it to a very manageable level.  It's going to take some time for WDW planning confidence to catch up & fully rebuild though because how commonly advance planning is necessary.

The economy... has a way to go with stages of cascading negative effects not yet played out.  Of what was put on pause to stabilize businesses and real estate, some will hang on and others the fallout only postponed.  It's highly likely the rental market takes a decent blow, and I think it'll affect resale value more than most suspect.  Attractive WDW package specials will hurt price comparisons as well as competition from a desperate world travel market.  Some of the excitement on WDW's horizon has been removed.  Probably a major reduction in near term WDW trip planning.  Combined will continue chipping down the value of contracts for a while before prices start going up again.

We were ready to buy over this year but personal uncertainties and the feeling prices won't increase much if at all between today and 2022 has changed our plans.  Prices look inflated _to us_ currently.

From https://blog.fidelityresales.com/long-term-value-of-disney-vacation-club-ownership
2016's $76.35 was avg of only 4 resorts tho 2017 avg of 13 resorts wasn't far off.  Even if these numbers aren't precise, overall resale prices have ballooned over the past 5 yrs and I'm not sure the value is still all there.  For us there doesn't seem much risk in waiting and watching what happens over the next year or two.


----------



## Royal Consort

TinkB278 said:


> I wish I was as optimistic as you about a vaccine. Sounds like the Oxford vaccine was not very effective in monkeys...
> 
> BUT I really hope you’re right because every bone in my body wants to take the plunge and just buy DVC. Just waiting for some promising news.



That's not true. The Oxford vaccine was successful in preventing pneumonia in the monkeys. What it didn't do was prevent spread or virus shedding. They were also challenged with higher doses of Covid than would be normal. It also provides the production of both antibodies and T cells.


----------



## TinkB278

Royal Consort said:


> That's not true. The Oxford vaccine was successful in preventing pneumonia in the monkeys. What it didn't do was prevent spread or virus shedding. They were also challenged with higher doses of Covid than would be normal. It also provides the production of both antibodies and T cells.



If it doesn’t prevent the spread or virus shredding it doesn’t sound too useful for me in getting the world back to normal.


----------



## Royal Consort

TinkB278 said:


> If it doesn’t prevent the spread or virus shredding it doesn’t sound too useful for me in getting the world back to normal.



It does if it significantly reduces the pnemonia, severity of the infection, and therefore mortality. Preventing the spread of any coronavius through a vaccine is an extremely high standard and IF thats to occur, it likely won't be the first cab off the rank.

This will be established by the end of phase 3 trials in Nov.


----------



## Wakey

TinkB278 said:


> I wish I was as optimistic as you about a vaccine. Sounds like the Oxford vaccine was not very effective in monkeys...
> 
> BUT I really hope you’re right because every bone in my body wants to take the plunge and just buy DVC. Just waiting for some promising news.




Bad reporting - the Oxford vaccine will not be perfect but it will get the job done. The monkeys were given massive viral loads- way more than you or I would ever breath in, and in some there was a bit of virus in the nose, but no deep lung infections.


----------



## jennypenny

davidl81 said:


> So let's say no vaccine is viable, at some point then we will reach a level of herd immunity.


Not to derail, but if a vaccine isn't viable then herd immunity isn't either. They are both based on the assumption that previous exposure builds immunity. If durable immunity isn't possible, we'll have to hang our hat on finding an effective treatment.

Vaccine = Disney goes back to almost normal
Herd Immunity = Somewhat normal, except a bit hit to vacations geared/advertised toward extended family trips that include grandparents, and most of the trips involving kids with special needs or medical issues
Effective Treatment = Biggest hit for Disney since there will be people who are still afraid to catch it and people who may not be able to afford treatment so also avoid getting it

While Disney's hit will vary depending on the above list, DVC's may differ a little. I could see DVC becoming more popular if dining experiences are somewhat curtailed and/or people are afraid to dine out and want rooms with kitchens.


----------



## sethschroeder

Royal Consort said:


> That's not true. The Oxford vaccine was successful in preventing pneumonia in the monkeys. What it didn't do was prevent spread or virus shedding. They were also challenged with higher doses of Covid than would be normal. It also provides the production of both antibodies and T cells.



Off topic just for a moment but I have a feeling there is going to be a likelihood that this might be common. I know there is questions regarding "reinfection" and "loss of antibodies fairly quickly".

I haven't been following it as closely recently as I was back in Jan-Apr timeframe so not sure if some of these have been proven out or disproved. I know I was reading about T-cells interaction with COVID19 and how multiple T-cells were need to full protect you but having possibly T-cells from other unrelated past infections might actually prevent you from being stricken more seriously by the illness.



TinkB278 said:


> If it doesn’t prevent the spread or virus shredding it doesn’t sound too useful for me in getting the world back to normal.



If the extent of COVID19 was a "bad cold" or "mild flu" the world would easily be able to move forward at that point. There would be modifications like distancing or reduced capacity possibly but mortality along with spread is the major components right now.

Two options:
Reduce R0 (how "spready" the virus is) so that the virus simply dies out
Reduce mortality (how deadly the virus is) so that basically no one dies

You don't need to eliminate R0 if mortality is non existent.


----------



## Wakey

jennypenny said:


> Not to derail, but if a vaccine isn't viable then herd immunity isn't either. They are both based on the assumption that previous exposure builds immunity. If durable immunity isn't possible, we'll have to hang our hat on finding an effective treatment.
> 
> Vaccine = Disney goes back to almost normal
> Herd Immunity = Somewhat normal, except a bit hit to vacations geared/advertised toward extended family trips that include grandparents, and most of the trips involving kids with special needs or medical issues
> Effective Treatment = Biggest hit for Disney since there will be people who are still afraid to catch it and people who may not be able to afford treatment so also avoid getting it
> 
> While Disney's hit will vary depending on the above list, DVC's may differ a little. I could see DVC becoming more popular if dining experiences are somewhat curtailed and/or people are afraid to dine out and want rooms with kitchens.



There were a number   of preprint studies last week- all showing robust T and C cell response with neutralizing protein, one study even has it increasing in month 3 from mild infection. So far it’s looking very promising regarding exposure and long term immunity (as in 12+ months per shot).

There’s zero credible evidence of reinfection, this was dead RNA picked up on testing apparently.


----------



## Wakey

And there’s growing, albeit as yet far from certain evidence that cross T cell protection is provided from other coronavirus- the best theory as to why a large proportion suffer no symptoms. If that also helps with spread prevention, it could mean herd immunity is triggered at much lower than traditional levels. This could be one of the reasons why places that have had it run through their specific population, then see a large drop off in hospitalizations and deaths- even when social distancing measures are relaxed and cases appear to go up.


----------



## sethschroeder

Anyways I think DVC is much more tied to the economy than to future vaccine research or success.

If nothing changed in the future there will simply be an adjustment by the general population and businesses. Travelers would adjust and society would adjust to account for this future state.

Economy and not the virus is the long term issue. The virus and not the economy is the short term issue.


----------



## davidl81

Does anyone have a thought on why SSR contracts seem to have gone up in price by like $5-$8 over the past month or so?  We are in ROFR right now for a loaded 175 point contract (banked points etc) at $99 a point which I thought was a tad high but workable a month ago.  Today (just looking at Dec use year to be fair) all I can find are stripped or not loaded contracts in the $105-$108 range.  Not really much listed under $100 at least in a Dec use year.  I am wondering if the ROFR contracts that have been taken is making brokers suggest a over $100 per point price?


----------



## RoseGold

meanwoodwhite said:


> They went on about how they plan to use it for a two week stays at OKW every other year. Which is perfectly fine. Apart from the fact that you have just thrown about $10,000 down the toilet.



And they didn't even get the Fastpasses.  Maybe they at least got the ice cream and the backpack.


----------



## sethschroeder

davidl81 said:


> Does anyone have a thought on why SSR contracts seem to have gone up in price by like $5-$8 over the past month or so?  We are in ROFR right now for a loaded 175 point contract (banked points etc) at $99 a point which I thought was a tad high but workable a month ago.  Today (just looking at Dec use year to be fair) all I can find are stripped or not loaded contracts in the $105-$108 range.  Not really much listed under $100 at least in a Dec use year.  I am wondering if the ROFR contracts that have been taken is making brokers suggest a over $100 per point price?



I see a $97/point listed on one of the major 3 resale sites for December at SSR.

I also think the increase in listed price for AKV has created an artificial increase in SSR as they don't need to compete with that pricing being at the $100-$105 space right now.


----------



## davidl81

sethschroeder said:


> I see a $97/point listed on one of the major 3 resale sites for December at SSR.
> 
> I also think the increase in listed price for AKV has created an artificial increase in SSR as they don't need to compete with that pricing being at the $100-$105 space right now.


Yeah I see that one now, it only has 15 of its 225 points left in 2020, but it is 97 a point.


----------



## CastAStone

davidl81 said:


> I am wondering if the ROFR contracts that have been taken is making brokers suggest a over $100 per point price?


I think everyone who lost a sub-100 SSR contract went and bought out all the inventory of sub-100s to replace them. I've been tracking SSR and  that's what it looked like to me.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

I'm seeing quite a few good contracts at reasonable asking prices for resorts I'm stalking right now:
CCV - 100 points - asking $138
AKV - 216 points - asking $103
SSR - 280 points - asking $95

Nothing earth shattering but all have their 2020 points and it seems there are more and more contracts sitting that are priced well. Tempting to start making offers but I think we are going to see lower prices this Fall and Winter.


----------



## CastAStone

Can we get this thread back on track?


----------



## CarolMN

CastAStone said:


> Can we get this thread back on track?


 Thank you.
Yes, please.  Argument is now over.

Further argumentative and/or sarcastic posts will be deleted and appropriate infractions issued.

DIS Posting Guidelines


----------



## Sandisw

I deleted posts that were borderline argumentative, sarcastic, and off topic.  

Please refrain from those or warnings will have to be issued.


----------



## sethschroeder

So getting back to the point of resale prices what we can start to go off of is:

When people start planning on trips again (buying resale DVC or selling because they can't go)
When people from other countries can and will visit again (will UK/CA owners sell if its too far in future)
Rental pricing (will they take a hit so rental groups sell their contracts/cheap enough to skew the math away from buying)
When people have disposable income (or are they missing a gap of income for months from being on furlough/laid off)
If more people are laid off that are in the DVC pool of owners/buyers
Larger economic impact that we might see in 2021/22 and if things do in fact get worse or get better
EDIT: Removed initial part of my response


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> SSR - 280 points - asking $95



Of the three contracts you posted, SSR was the only one I watched closely during the past 5 months.  You could get 100 pt contracts in the 92-95 range in April/May/June so to me this large one might be good now, but I still see it as pricey.

I know it all depends on which resort, its size, and the use year, but (to me) prices seem up about $5-$10 across the board since May/early June.


----------



## Galun

ABE4DISNEY said:


> Of the three contracts you posted, SSR was the only one I watched closely during the past 5 months.  You could get 100 pt contracts in the 92-95 range in April/May/June so to me this large one might be good now, but I still see it as pricey.
> 
> I know it all depends on which resort, its size, and the use year, but (to me) prices seem up about $5-$10 across the board since May/early June.



The stock market was up around 11 - 12% since beginning of May.  Things have generally improved.

We bought two SSR contracts in April.  Double points (full 2019 included) at $102 per point.  Took me around 3 hours to rent them out when they hit my account, dropping the price to $88 per point.


----------



## Leahc117

What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!??  I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point!  Any ideas?  This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.


----------



## CastAStone

Leahc117 said:


> What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!??  I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point!  Any ideas?  This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.


I think that is wise.


----------



## TinkB278

Leahc117 said:


> What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!??  I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point!  Any ideas?  This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.



I keep wondering the same thing. I seriously don’t get it.


----------



## becauseimnew

Leahc117 said:


> What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!??  I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point!  Any ideas?  This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.


Because people are paying those prices, those contracts go fast. 
If I bought the same contract direct (October UY) I could get 2019 points included for about $19,415. That’s $5,000 more than the list price on the resale contracts. I hope those list prices come down or I might just talk myself into buying direct.


----------



## linzjane88

Our next door school district just announced a layoff of almost 300 employees--bus drivers, teachers, custodians, food service, etc. We are a small area so that's a pretty decent number of people who are now out of work and going to have less disposable income. Magnify that across the US and I just can't imagine how this won't have effects on luxury purchases and travel. 

 It's odd how my 401k looks fine, resale prices are still too rich for my blood, and yet life is so not 'normal'! Does not compute!


----------



## mamaofsix

sethschroeder said:


> So getting back to the point of resale prices what we can start to go off of is:
> 
> When people start planning on trips again (buying resale DVC or selling because they can't go)
> When people from other countries can and will visit again (will UK/CA owners sell if its too far in future)
> Rental pricing (will they take a hit so rental groups sell their contracts/cheap enough to skew the math away from buying)
> When people have disposable income (or are they missing a gap of income for months from being on furlough/laid off)
> If more people are laid off that are in the DVC pool of owners/buyers
> Larger economic impact that we might see in 2021/22 and if things do in fact get worse or get better
> EDIT: Removed initial part of my response


I think your point about things being dependent on when guests from other countries start to visit again cannot be overstated.

Recent estimates are that International visitors make up 25-30% of WDW's annual visitors.  They also tend to stay longer and spend more.  I'd imagine that international DVC owners have more points than the average owner, since they stay longer per visit.   

Just going off of the international boards, it seems as though there are a good deal of UK, Canadian and Australian owners and those looking to buy resale.  We're Canadian, looking to buy resale, and we certainly won't be buying until our borders are open again.  By some estimates that could be at least another 6 months - 1 year. A lack of international buyers and guests will certainly have a big chain reaction on pricing.


----------



## CastAStone

mamaofsix said:


> I think your point about things being dependent on when guests from other countries start to visit again cannot be overstated.
> 
> Recent estimates are that International visitors make up 25-30% of WDW's annual visitors.  They also tend to stay longer and spend more.  I'd imagine that international DVC owners have more points than the average owner, since they stay longer per visit.
> 
> Just going off of the international boards, it seems as though there are a good deal of UK, Canadian and Australian owners and those looking to buy resale.  We're Canadian, looking to buy resale, and we certainly won't be buying until our borders are open again.  By some estimates that could be at least another 6 months - 1 year. A lack of international buyers and guests will certainly have a big chain reaction on pricing.


Agree. If I was an international buyer I'd be looking for a stripped contract and trying to time the balance between lower prices and better exchange rates (perhaps less of a concern currently for Canada that Europe). If I was an international owner of a loaded contract that wasn't tied to blue card benefits I'd probably be looking to unload it to a US buyer and planning to buyback in later if/when prices fall (trying to time the market - not for the faint of heart).  

FWIW Christine McCarthy said international visitors make up 18-22% of US park visitors on the February earnings call and that they had been "at the lower end of that range" recently (pre-covid). She was trying to explain why COVID wouldn't have a big impact on attendance, the gist was "we barely have any Asian visitors". Whoops.


----------



## iheartglaciers

CastAStone said:


> FWIW Christine McCarthy said international visitors make up 18-22% of US park visitors on the February earnings call and that they had been "at the lower end of that range" recently (pre-covid). She was trying to explain why COVID wouldn't have a big impact on attendance, the gist was "we barely have any Asian visitors". Whoops.



Do you remember if the 18-22% was international visitors to Disneyland + Disney World? Or just Disney World?


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> FWIW Christine McCarthy said international visitors make up 18-22% of US park visitors on the February earnings call and that they had been "at the lower end of that range" recently (pre-covid). She was trying to explain why COVID wouldn't have a big impact on attendance, the gist was "we barely have any Asian visitors". Whoops.



It just depends because visitor and amount of revenue tied to that visitor are different. Revenue per guest is up right now so possibly international actually holds them back on a per visitor spend breakdown.



iheartglaciers said:


> Do you remember if the 18-22% was international visitors to Disneyland + Disney World? Or just Disney World?



I don't honestly think that data is completely accurate because 18-22% was from reports in 2013 at WDW. I have a hard time believing the numbers are the same almost a decade later for the breakdown. Maybe they are but I would suspect that percentage is specific to WDW.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> I don't honestly think that data is completely accurate because 18-22% was from reports in 2013 at WDW. I have a hard time believing the numbers are the same almost a decade later for the breakdown. Maybe they are but I would suspect that percentage is specific to WDW.


It was literally said on an earnings call by the CFO of TWDC in February of this year. She can choose not to say anything but if she lies on an earnings call about a hard number that's a pretty big scandal. 

https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...y-company-dis-q1-2020-earnings-call-tran.aspx


----------



## CastAStone

iheartglaciers said:


> Do you remember if the 18-22% was international visitors to Disneyland + Disney World? Or just Disney World?


It was WDW+DLR.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> It was literally said on an earnings call by the CFO of TWDC in February of this year. She can choose not to say anything but if she lies on an earnings call about a hard number that's a pretty big scandal.
> 
> https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-...y-company-dis-q1-2020-earnings-call-tran.aspx



Except its a generic range is my point and one that was shared before. Just seems a little off.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

linzjane88 said:


> Our next door school district just announced a layoff of almost 300 employees--bus drivers, teachers, custodians, food service, etc. We are a small area so that's a pretty decent number of people who are now out of work and going to have less disposable income. Magnify that across the US and I just can't imagine how this won't have effects on luxury purchases and travel.
> 
> It's odd how my 401k looks fine, resale prices are still too rich for my blood, and yet life is so not 'normal'! Does not compute!



The layoffs are happening around the world and will likely accelerate in 2021.  Hopefully it is short term and not as deep as the Great Recession.  FHA mortgage delinquencies were just reported to be at a 9 year high in Q2.  A lot of people are struggling financially right now.

The amount of stimulus injected into the stock market is incredible and stock prices reflect that.  The government has already provided trillions of dollars and may provide more.


----------



## RamblingMad

Leahc117 said:


> What is going on with pricing at ALK resale!!??  I thought I remember seeing low $100 per point a few months ago and now I see contracts for 120-135 per point!  Any ideas?  This is also leading me to wait until later in the year to see what happens with pricing.



Just watched the DVC show about Disney buying back contracts.  It looks like Disney has put in a floor on contract prices in the short term.  

The reality is that the worse case scenario for the virus hasn’t happened yet. Once we get into flu season with COVID at the same time, we’ll get a better idea of how well we can control it.

Economically, we have been held up by lots of stimulus. With all of that behind us, we’ll see the real economic hardship shortly. Some people might have to sell their DVC to raise cash.


----------



## sethschroeder

RamblingMad said:


> Just watched the DVC show about Disney buying back contracts. It looks like Disney has put in a floor on contract prices in the short term.



That show was recorded a week ago (10th) and after there had been a single day of buy backs. There has since been little information on much additional buyback on Disney's part and really nothing on the ROFR thread.

I would want comments on the numbers and % of contracts taken over the last week after that single day.


----------



## Brianstl

sethschroeder said:


> That show was recorded a week ago (10th) and after there had been a single day of buy backs. There has since been little information on much additional buyback on Disney's part and really nothing on the ROFR thread.
> 
> I would want comments on the numbers and % of contracts taken over the last week after that single day.


Right now to me it looks like the buybacks were possibly just Disney deciding to take the cash sitting on their table in their waiting list.


----------



## RamblingMad

sethschroeder said:


> That show was recorded a week ago (10th) and after there had been a single day of buy backs. There has since been little information on much additional buyback on Disney's part and really nothing on the ROFR thread.
> 
> I would want comments on the numbers and % of contracts taken over the last week after that single day.



Does it matter?  They bought some. It sent a message that they put in a floor. Contract prices went up. Why buy more if they accomplished pushing up prices?


----------



## mamaofsix

sethschroeder said:


> Except its a generic range is my point and one that was shared before. Just seems a little off.


Yeah, it would be interesting to know the exact numbers.  Forget where, but I had read that WDW was closer to 25% or 30% International visitors in recent years due to the surge in Brazilian visitors as their economy gained more wealth.  

Either way, even if it's closer to the 20% mark, it's still a pretty large portion.


----------



## CastAStone

RamblingMad said:


> Does it matter?  They bought some. It sent a message that they put in a floor. Contract prices went up. Why buy more if they accomplished pushing up prices?


That’s not why Disney bought those contracts. They bought the contracts because they ran out of contracts to sell


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

Disney may continue with ROFR but it won't stop prices from dropping if they're going to drop.  They won't buy everything.


----------



## RamblingMad

CastAStone said:


> That’s not why Disney bought those contracts. They bought the contracts because they ran out of contracts to sell



What?  If this were true, and Disney thought they could turn a profit, they have a DVC trading desk, where they would buy lots of contracts every day, not one off transactions.


----------



## CastAStone

RamblingMad said:


> What?  If this were true, and Disney thought they could turn a profit, they have a DVC trading desk, where they would buy lots of contracts every day, not one off transactions.


It’s not a normal time.

Disney has barely acquired any contracts the last few months:


CastAStone said:


> I made another chart. Sorry everyone. But I think it sheds light on why Disney needed to start ROFRing contracts again. This is the number of contracts Disney acquired by month for any reason (ROFR, Deed-in-lieu of Foreclosure, deed surrender, Foreclosure Auction, inheritance surrender, direct purchase on the open market, and so on) according to what has been filed with Orange County (the recent ROFRs have not been filed yet; they need to close first).
> 
> You'll notice that the numbers fall off a cliff starting in April. You'll also notice they dwindle close to zero in July and August 2020. I looked at the July and August deeds and Disney in the last several weeks has only filed acquisitions of Deed-in-lieu of Foreclosure (giving your deed to Disney to satisfy your non-payment of dues and avoid court proceedings) and deed surrender (straight up giving your timeshare to Disney for nothing in return in order to be rid of your future obligations), both of which are voluntary and can be done outside of court. There have been no auction acquisitions in the last several weeks, and only a smattering in the few months before that; I'm guessing most of what we see in April May and June are delayed closings from deals or settlements made pre-COVID.
> 
> *Number of contracts acquired by DVD for any reason:*
> View attachment 518950


Resorts that never ever ever have wait lists have wait lists:


davidl81 said:


> I spoke with my guide today as he was following up with me on a direct inquiry I had made about RIV and SSR.  He said they didn't have any SSR points right now, and I would go on the wait list.  He said it would be short because they were told they would be getting SSR points soon.  I didn't ask about where the points were coming from, but maybe this is the answer?





Kim00188 said:


> I was put on the waitlist on Monday morning for 100pt with a September UY. My guide said no OKW points were available. He seemed surprised, so I’m guessing they ran out of points recently.


Direct sales have picked up:


CastAStone said:


> I didn’t do a breakout by resort or really any work beyond a quick check but I ran last weeks filings with OC and they were ballpark of pre-COVID normal, with 211 contracts.
> 
> If they keep up this pace, don’t expect better incentives next month





i<3riviera said:


> direct DVC sales statistics
> 
> mid-month flash
> 
> recording dates 2020-08-01 to 2020-08-15
> 
> resortdeedspoints% pointsAKV​22​2,257​5.3%​BCV​2​125​0.3%​BLT​14​1,689​4.0%​BRV​2​305​0.7%​BWV​14​962​2.3%​CCV​49​8,848​20.9%​OKW​35​4,230​10.0%​PVB​7​728​1.7%​RVA​123​20,288​47.9%​SSR​26​2,270​5.4%​VGF​8​692​1.6%​*302*​*42,394*​
> 
> *12* split contracts consisting of *3,798* points (*9.0%* of all points) and *31* deeds (*10%* of all deeds)
> 
> contracts (grouping split deeds)
> 
> type of contractcontract% contractspoints% pointsinitial​135​48%​25,774​61%​add-on​148​52%​16,620​39%​​*283*​​*42,394*​​
> 
> delay from effective date (presumably when someone tells their guide they want to purchase though potentially before the signing date if they don't sign same day) to recording date (recorded with Orange county Florida); I've included previous data for reference
> View attachment 519311



And there are no foreclosure auctions scheduled so Disney has no line of sight to additional contracts anytime soon without ROFR:



sethschroeder said:


> I am not even seeing any DVC auctions set for all of August at this point? So there might not have been really any as possibly Disney is giving people a pass on MFs for more of an extended time right now?





ocdb8r1 said:


> Last auction was June 9 - I watched and most were bid up by a "supposed" third party to basically resale prices.  Given the uncertainty of other liens, additional fees outstanding and no idea of banked or borrowed points, I didn't see any value.  I say "supposed" because I've monitored these for a long time and often some sort of shell company ends up being the winning bidder on these wherever there is "action".  I even researched a few and the deed was eventually assigned over to Disney, so I suspect Disney uses other entities to bid.  I found it strange this time around given ROFR has not been active.
> 
> Rather than DVC giving a pass on MFs, I suspect the lack of auctions has more to do with difficulty in pursuing the foreclosure process with both limited resources at the OC Clerk, a preference for non-judicial foreclosures wherever possible and lack of DVC staff in office to move the process along.  Like everything else, I expect these will pick up over time.  I also watch the required public posting for these (that covers both judicial and non-judicial foreclosures) and there has been a trickle of postings in the last few weeks...but no date set for actual auctions yet.


TLDR: Disney has run out of contract to sell and needs to ROFR some to be able to sell some more


----------



## Brianstl

RamblingMad said:


> What?  If this were true, and Disney thought they could turn a profit, they have a DVC trading desk, where they would buy lots of contracts every day, not one off transactions.


You don't need to buy contracts everyday when you have a waiting list at "sold out" resorts.  You buy contracts in one off deals to fill that waiting list.


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> It’s not a normal time.
> 
> Disney has barely acquired any contracts the last few months:
> 
> Resorts that never ever ever have wait lists have wait lists:
> 
> 
> Direct sales have picked up:
> 
> 
> 
> And there are no foreclosure auctions scheduled so Disney has no line of sight to additional contracts anytime soon without ROFR:
> 
> 
> 
> TLDR: Disney has run out of contract to sell and needs to ROFR some to be able to sell some more


Did the halt in foreclosures and evictions in the CARES Act impact Disney's ability to foreclose on DVC contracts?


----------



## CastAStone

Brianstl said:


> Did the halt in foreclosures and evictions in the CARES Act impact Disney's ability to foreclose on DVC contracts?


No, but since that represents (I’m guessing) 90+ percent of consumer foreclosures, I’m assuming banks just stepped away from it altogether for the time being


----------



## sethschroeder

mamaofsix said:


> Yeah, it would be interesting to know the exact numbers.  Forget where, but I had read that WDW was closer to 25% or 30% International visitors in recent years due to the surge in Brazilian visitors as their economy gained more wealth.
> 
> Either way, even if it's closer to the 20% mark, it's still a pretty large portion.



Think it comes down to money spent though beyond just the park entrance and that has been a common thread on how Disney seems to talk.

Also I have to assume a 20% foreign visitor mark makes up a much lower number for DVC owners less than 10% if not less than 5% of owners.

I mean it might be a bad assumption but I would suspect foreign DVC owners would sell at the same rate as those who are in the US so we would see way more international sellers in the ROFR thread than we typically see.

I think foreign visitors matter for a couple reasons:

Small part of the larger snowball that is rolling down the hill on resale pricing going up or down with buying/selling
They possibly drive up rental prices having people possibly rent out their points instead of sell
They eat up discounts from Disney allowing Disney to charge more for cash rooms skewing the math back more towards DVC


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

CastAStone said:


> No, but since that represents (I’m guessing) 90+ percent of consumer foreclosures, I’m assuming banks just stepped away from it altogether for the time being



The optics of foreclosing during Covid wouldn't be good.  Banks are even trying to work with clients that have delinquent credit cards instead of sending them to collections.  I have no knowledge of DVC financing but I've got to assume that if prices start to drop enough it will force companies to foreclose on contracts.  Not sure how much "enough" is but I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 10% below current prices.


----------



## RamblingMad

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> The optics of foreclosing during Covid wouldn't be good.  Banks are even trying to work with clients that have delinquent credit cards instead of sending them to collections.  I have no knowledge of DVC financing but I've got to assume that if prices start to drop enough it will force companies to foreclose on contracts.  Not sure how much "enough" is but I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 10% below current prices.



If this happens, it’s more likely to happen early next year. Q1 can be really ugly without stimulus and deferments ending.


----------



## bookwormde

8/17 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 240% of average


----------



## poofyo101

CastAStone said:


> That’s not why Disney bought those contracts. They bought the contracts because they ran out of contracts to sell


You do not know that to be a fact though. Just pure speculation as was his opinion.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> You do not know that to be a fact though. Just pure speculation as was his opinion.


They literally have told people that.


----------



## poofyo101

CastAStone said:


> They literally have told people that.


Who has worked in rofr has ever given an explanation of why they are buying something back? I may have missed that.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> Who has worked in rofr has ever given an explanation of why they are buying something back? I may have missed that.


They have been telling people they have no contracts to sell them for resorts like SSR and OKW.


----------



## poofyo101

CastAStone said:


> They have been telling people they have no contracts to sell them for resorts like SSR and OKW.


They have been. But that doesn’t explain why they are buying it back. Disney hasn’t ever bought back just to instantly sell. Look at vgc for example.

personally think they just bought to show everyone they can still buy back. That’s all. Or elsewe would have heard many more ssr and okw bought back this week imo.


----------



## CastAStone

poofyo101 said:


> They have been. But that doesn’t explain why they are buying it back. Disney hasn’t ever bought back just to instantly sell. Look at vgc for example.
> 
> personally think they just bought to show everyone they can still buy back. That’s all. Or elsewe would have heard many more ssr and okw bought back this week imo.


Ok.


----------



## sethschroeder

poofyo101 said:


> They have been. But that doesn’t explain why they are buying it back. Disney hasn’t ever bought back just to instantly sell. Look at vgc for example.
> 
> personally think they just bought to show everyone they can still buy back. That’s all. Or elsewe would have heard many more ssr and okw bought back this week imo.



They need to make profit. VGC is not selling for a low enough amount for them to want to buy back those contract or they know Disneyland Hotel Villas is coming and they are simply wanting to keep that waitlist around to push them in to the new resort at a larger profit.

As far as the other resorts its not a random act that the ROFR taken are primarily at resorts sold the most in the past. People have also been told that Disney would get more points soon to sell them direct.

In the end Disney is 100% buying contracts to later sell be it immediate or in the future. There is a small assumption that under current circumstances with less than normal cash flow they would focus on a more immediate sale. There is some correlation drawn from the economic collapse from a decade ago and reduction/elimination of ROFR during parts of that.

There is also another assumption on a more immediate turn over in that all resorts are being offered during the direct sales process as opposed to the overwhelming new resort only sales they would have in the past. Things like resort touring, online marketing (with prices for each resort), and even calls with agents will spell out today is much different from 6 months ago prior to shutdown.

Plus in the end there really hasn't been much for ROFR anyways besides that one specific day almost 2 weeks ago.

I just think its no coincidence we hear about wait lists on I think it was OKW and by the end of that week there is a day of ROFR being taken. Lines up with the idea of being ready for the surge in purchasing for the 100 to 125 point increase. Also its not like Disney is overpaying they are simply grabbing a limited supply in my opinion for the expected upcoming direct sales.

Some assumptions are required with anything though.


----------



## Dean

Historically they’ve use that more to establish a floor but ultimately to drive people to buy retail. There have been times when they’ve also used it to sell some additional points but this has not been the main issue.


----------



## RoseGold

They ROFRed so hard in 2019.  When I was buying in late 2019, it was constant.  And now it seems like they have no inventory to sell.

Maybe they really do have a line around the block of people who want to buy this stuff direct???

Once they staff up the booths and fire up the ice cream machine, I would expect more ROFR with Reflections on hold.  They need something to sell!  Less rush to sell out RIV, which, let's be honest, was always going to take a long time.


----------



## chunks

Shocks me that people still believe Disney would buy back just to “establish a floor” or “prove a point that they are still here”.  Disney is a public company...everything they do is to make money...and they would be idiots to buyback during a pandemic if they didn’t have a super quick sell down the road.  

I will say that if it is true that they can’t get foreclosures at the moment, they probably should’ve waited on the “buybacks” until they could foreclose.  They may have a glut of inventory coming once foreclosures start back up and could probably use those waitlist people to clear that out.   Then again, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush


----------



## Kickstart

I got a call from Disney DVC today, because I "recently" downloaded their DVC DVD/video  (which must have been about two months ago).
Real nice guy, pleasant conversation, but here's the interesting part:

I mentioned that I'm waiting on a contract in ROFR - He then led with "*great prices on OKW and SSR to get your blue card points before the membership points increase*"

A very brief mention of RIV before coming back to OKW and SSR again. Didn't even try pitching RIV to me.
I explained how I'd really like to be at BLT, but couldn't justify direct... but may consider adding on direct with the membership discount if my contract comes through.

I said the only current direct property I might consider is CCV.
So... the follow-up email had prices for CVV, and get this... prices for OKW even though I never expressed interest in OKW.

Obviously, if I didn't mention I had a contract in ROFR he might have lead with RIV.  So OKW and SSR may be the backup pitch for white card members.  Maybe that's typical for DVC sales to push the cheapest sold-out resorts to white card members, IDK... but I thought it was interesting he was suggesting those two resorts considering they're the primary ones Disney has recently bought back.


----------



## RoseGold

I mean, that’s how I would make that sales call.  Direct RIV can’t compete with any resale, so the pitch is the least overpriced, which is OKW/SSR/AKL.

I guess he didn’t tell you what the actual benefits are of the blue card because they sure aren’t worth much at the moment.


----------



## Kickstart

RoseGold said:


> I mean, that’s how I would make that sales call.  Direct RIV can’t compete with any resale, so the pitch is the least overpriced, which is OKW/SSR/AKL.
> 
> I guess he didn’t tell you what the actual benefits are of the blue card because they sure aren’t worth much at the moment.



Funny, I asked about actual benefits and he didn't have much to say except for store discounts... but...  then he did tell me that I wouldn't be able to access the BLT Observation Deck / Lounge as a white card member.  I said I thought that was available to white card members but he was sure it wasn't... now I'll have to research that... or maybe they're going to pull that benefit from white card members?

Oh, BTW... he didn't use the phrase "blue card" or "white card".  He led with "you wont be a member..."  and something along the lines of "you wont be a member, you'll just have a stay"  so, yeah, I don't think they have much to differentiate blue card benefits besides making you feel like you're not a "real" member.


----------



## sethschroeder

Kickstart said:


> maybe they're going to pull that benefit from white card members?



Its paid out of MFs so its available to all.

Nothing about APs though? Worrying that they would not bring that up even if its not available right now.


----------



## Kickstart

sethschroeder said:


> Its paid out of MFs so its available to all.
> 
> Nothing about APs though? Worrying that they would not bring that up even if its not available right now.



Oh, so I made the mistake of talking too much   Before he got the chance I mentioned that even if AP discounts came back that they don't mean much to me as I'm only planning on going once every 2-3 years.  So he just moved on to the other benefits.  

Sorry, I should have inquired or see what he led with.  My bad.


----------



## Dean

chunks said:


> Shocks me that people still believe Disney would buy back just to “establish a floor” or “prove a point that they are still here”.  Disney is a public company...everything they do is to make money...and they would be idiots to buyback during a pandemic if they didn’t have a super quick sell down the road.
> 
> I will say that if it is true that they can’t get foreclosures at the moment, they probably should’ve waited on the “buybacks” until they could foreclose.  They may have a glut of inventory coming once foreclosures start back up and could probably use those waitlist people to clear that out.   Then again, a bird in hand is better than two in the bush


Let me be more clear.  They use it mainly to drive people to retail and make them nervous about resale.  To do so they create uncertainty about RORF and this necessitates some semblance of a floor.  They also have their internal cutoffs for buybacks but even then they only take part of them partly for cash flow reasons but more because they want the uncertainty.  They're not above making a few extra bucks here and there but their main business and source of profit is new sales. At a buyback that is 50% of the retail price, they're basically breaking even because of marketing and commission costs when looked at long term.


----------



## Spark65

Just imagine if Disney didn't buy anything back keeping the ceiling artificially high it would devalue the timeshare. Just think someone in distress selling at whatever price he could in a down economy to get out of the timeshare you would no longer see the prices on the resale market for DVC as you do now.


----------



## Dean

Spark65 said:


> Just imagine if Disney didn't buy anything back keeping the ceiling artificially high it would devalue the timeshare. Just think someone in distress selling at whatever price he could in a down economy to get out of the timeshare you would no longer see the prices on the resale market for DVC as you do now.


It did in 08-10, they went down by half what they were selling for before that.


----------



## chunks

Spark65 said:


> Just imagine if Disney didn't buy anything back keeping the ceiling artificially high it would devalue the timeshare. Just think someone in distress selling at whatever price he could in a down economy to get out of the timeshare you would no longer see the prices on the resale market for DVC as you do now.



They don’t buy back at aulani, poly, copper creek or boulder ridge...and none of them have their resale values collapse.  They may be lower than certain others, but there are reasons for that (poly’s point chart is high, aulani is in Hawaii etc) The reason that the values hold is demand for the product...Particularly the rental demand.  If rental demand died, resale prices would get crushed (ie go to zero).  As long as there is a spread between dues and rental prices (particularly through rental brokers as that is easy) the timeshare will have value regardless of what Disney does (even riv resale has value due to the rental market although I’m a little skeptical of that holding as there could be issues in the future rental market if you don’t rent the points out immediately...due to everyone trading in but you not being able to trade out)

There are many other timeshare companies with rofr (Wyndham), that have values of essentially $0.  All about the rental markets as a lot of people in Wyndham can’t rent for more than their dues...thus causing the value to disappear


----------



## bookwormde

8/18 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average

As s side note the greatest portion of the recent reduction in new contracts has been from a reduction in new listings from DVC resales


----------



## Dean

chunks said:


> They don’t buy back at aulani, poly, copper creek or boulder ridge...and none of them have their resale values collapse.  They may be lower than certain others, but there are reasons for that (poly’s point chart is high, aulani is in Hawaii etc) The reason that the values hold is demand for the product...Particularly the rental demand.  If rental demand died, resale prices would get crushed (ie go to zero).  As long as there is a spread between dues and rental prices (particularly through rental brokers as that is easy) the timeshare will have value regardless of what Disney does (even riv resale has value due to the rental market although I’m a little skeptical of that holding as there could be issues in the future rental market if you don’t rent the points out immediately...due to everyone trading in but you not being able to trade out)
> 
> There are many other timeshare companies with rofr (Wyndham), that have values of essentially $0.  All about the rental markets as a lot of people in Wyndham can’t rent for more than their dues...thus causing the value to disappear


There are reasons that Bluegreen, Wyndham, etc who have ROFR had every low prices.  Marriott does also and it does affect the prices there even though the % are lower.  Yes there are other factors but the fact that they have it and use it at some resorts (and all to some degree over time) props them all up.


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> 8/18 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 100% of average
> 
> As s side note the greatest portion of the recent reduction in new contracts has been from a reduction in new listings from DVC resales


The number of contracts on https://www.dvcsales.com/ seems to be the highest I've seen in the time I've been actively looking for a contract. Are they in the sites you track?


----------



## Sandisw

RoseGold said:


> I mean, that’s how I would make that sales call.  Direct RIV can’t compete with any resale, so the pitch is the least overpriced, which is OKW/SSR/AKL.
> 
> I guess he didn’t tell you what the actual benefits are of the blue card because they sure aren’t worth much at the moment.



Not to mention with them keeping deluxe resorts closed, I personally don’t think they are in any rush with RIV because it gives them a deluxe to discount and/or move people.

Plus, Reflections no longer in the mix, I can see why a guide might not push with someone who said they have bought resale already.


----------



## RoseGold

Kickstart said:


> then he did tell me that I wouldn't be able to access the BLT Observation Deck / Lounge as a white card member. I said I thought that was available to white card members but he was sure it wasn't... now I'll have to research that... or maybe they're going to pull that benefit from white card members?



This is a lie on two levels.  First, it's closed right now, so NO ONE can access it, like that currently non-existent DVC Gold AP.  If it were open, you could access it as a white card member.  It's explicitly on the website.  He knew both of these things.  They could shut it down to all members permanently, which I can picture them doing.


----------



## Wakey

I bet the guides are absolutely pissed at DVD for RIV resale restrictions, it will be hitting them all in the pocket.


----------



## heynowirv

Have they been taking BWV at all or only SSR and OKW?


----------



## zavandor

Wakey said:


> I bet the guides are absolutely pissed at DVD for RIV resale restrictions, it will be hitting them all in the pocket.


Do you think so?
I have always thought DVD introduced the restrictions because the guides asked for a better way to differenciate resale and have a heavyweight weapon to use when someone mentions resale during the sale pitch.
However it's possible they might backfire in the short term and guides may not be so much interested in the long term.


----------



## Dean

Wakey said:


> I bet the guides are absolutely pissed at DVD for RIV resale restrictions, it will be hitting them all in the pocket.


Probably all the way to the bank.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> The number of contracts on https://www.dvcsales.com/ seems to be the highest I've seen in the time I've been actively looking for a contract. Are they in the sites you track?


yes  they are 1 of the 2 smaller sites I track


----------



## bookwormde

8/19 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 400% of average


----------



## bookwormde

compared to last week

DVC resale 266 down 9

Fidelity 136 up 3

TSS 146 up 26


----------



## Llama mama

What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
If holiday weeks are not priority.
I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
Don’t need a long contract.
Dont have a resort preference.
Paying cash.
Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
Studio would work for most vacations.
Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
Any advice?
I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.


----------



## Kickstart

RoseGold said:


> This is a lie on two levels.  First, it's closed right now, so NO ONE can access it, like that currently non-existent DVC Gold AP.  If it were open, you could access it as a white card member.  It's explicitly on the website.  He knew both of these things.  They could shut it down to all members permanently, which I can picture them doing.



Can you point to where it's stated on the website?  I couldn't find anything except for general statements about it being available for "members', but not specifying which type of member.

Thanks


----------



## JETSDAD

Kickstart said:


> Can you point to where it's stated on the website?  I couldn't find anything except for general statements about it being available for "members', but not specifying which type of member.
> 
> Thanks


It's right on the digital white cards as being available. 

Also here: https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/dvc-direct-vs-resale/


----------



## sethschroeder

Llama mama said:


> What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
> If holiday weeks are not priority.
> I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
> Don’t need a long contract.
> Dont have a resort preference.
> Paying cash.
> Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
> Studio would work for most vacations.
> Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
> Any advice?
> I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.



Do you want a specific resort that you will stay at or are you just looking for sleep around points? 

Remeber each resort has different point charts so you need to look at that as well to see if 200 points is good.


----------



## bookwormde

Llama mama said:


> What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
> If holiday weeks are not priority.
> I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
> Don’t need a long contract.
> Dont have a resort preference.
> Paying cash.
> Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
> Studio would work for most vacations.
> Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
> Any advice?
> I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.


do not forget about maintenance fee differences.
I suggest 12 to 18 dollars below asking as a start for larger contracts. 
Also where the info is available look at long listed contracts. 
If you want the best deal be patient


----------



## bookwormde

8/20 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 340% of average


----------



## Dean

Llama mama said:


> What’s your strategy for purchasing points?
> If holiday weeks are not priority.
> I am a flexible traveler and can book last minute or well in advance.
> Don’t need a long contract.
> Dont have a resort preference.
> Paying cash.
> Like a 9 /10 day vacation yearly.
> Studio would work for most vacations.
> Go for whatever resort with lowest Point price? I think a 200 point would work ok. Offer a $5-10 less a point for first offer?
> Any advice?
> I have read almost all this thread and I am still no closer on what’s the best strategy lol.


In addition to the information you provided, I will make a couple of assumptions.  Those are that you have sufficient on property and timeshare experience to know that buying is truly your best direction going forward for a number of years as well as WDW being your main goal.  Just taking what you've provided I think the cheapest option long term will best fit the situation you've described, that is SSR resale.  This is because you're flexible in scheduling and flexible in resort choice from what it seems from your post.   The cheapest studios that are routinely available will be SSR standard and OKW.  200 sounds like a good size for the contract assuming the non studio trips aren't too costly in number of points.  200 likely won't' be enough if you're looking at other resorts mostly or just trying most of the resorts over time.  Generally I recommend calculating your needs and getting a cushion of 10-20% or more, usually 20% or more when looking at studios and/or shorter time stays.  

I'm assuming it's just 2 people traveling, if it's a family I'd definitely do a good cushion if the above assumption are otherwise correct.  If I haven't read your post correctly and you're looking at higher end resorts or you would get great short term benefits from the pass discounts, I would answer differently.


----------



## bookwormde

8/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 260% of average


----------



## Llama mama

Where does everyone believe BW and BC prices are headed with only 22 years left on their contracts.


----------



## sethschroeder

Llama mama said:


> Where does everyone believe BW and BC prices are headed with only 22 years left on their contracts.



22 years is already factored in otherwise BWV would be up with POLY and BCV would be up with VGF.

Most value of a contract is first 10 years so won't see time truly impacting it for another 10 years.


----------



## CastAStone

Llama mama said:


> Where does everyone believe BW and BC prices are headed with only 22 years left on their contracts.


I think that compared to however the other resorts increase or decrease, they will lag about 4%-5% per year behind on average, which reasonably accurately reflects the decline in value. At some point around 2028ish I think that will accelerate to closer to 6-9% per year.

The prices for resorts like BRV, OKW, and BWV already I’d argue pretty clearly have their 2042 expiration accurately priced in. BCV is the only outlier but then again it’s the second most expensive cash resort.


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> I think that compared to however the other resorts increase or decrease, they will lag about 4%-5% per year behind on average, which reasonably accurately reflects the decline in value. At some point around 2028ish I think that will accelerate to closer to 6-9% per year.
> 
> The prices for resorts like BRV, OKW, and BWV already I’d argue pretty clearly have their 2042 expiration accurately priced in. BCV is the only outlier but then again it’s the second most expensive cash resort.


I think the small size of BCV has played a big role in BCV’s price inflation.


----------



## Llama mama

How much lower per point could I get a 150 pt BW ? They are asking 118?


----------



## bookwormde

8/22 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average


----------



## bookwormde

8/23 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average

For the week of 8/17 to 8/23 newly posted resale contracts at about 240% of average


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Llama mama said:


> How much lower per point could I get a 150 pt BW ? They are asking 118?


It looks like in the ROFR thread that $110 and $112 have happened for a 150 pt. BWV.  So you could straight up offer one of those or start a little lower at $107ish and see if they will negotiate.


----------



## TTA Rider Matt

heynowirv said:


> Have they been taking BWV at all or only SSR and OKW?


I am NOT an insider or anything, but what I've seen is OKW, AKL, SSR, HH, VB, and VGF to this point as the primary "targets". Please let me reiterate that this is solely based on what I've seen on different message boards. I am also waiting to see if anyone more "in the know" would answer this question, as I have a 50 point BWV contract that was just sent 8/21 at $140 a point. Good luck with yours, hopefully BWV contracts go unharmed!


----------



## PaulW08

TTA Rider Matt said:


> I am NOT an insider or anything, but what I've seen is OKW, AKL, SSR, HH, VB, and VGF to this point as the primary "targets". Please let me reiterate that this is solely based on what I've seen on different message boards. I am also waiting to see if anyone more "in the know" would answer this question, as I have a 50 point BWV contract that was just sent 8/21 at $140 a point. Good luck with yours, hopefully BWV contracts go unharmed!



I have seen that others have mentioned AKV being taken, but haven't seen any specifics yet on contract details and price per point. Would be interested as I have a 160pt at $100 per point and 0/19, 189/20, 160/21, currently in ROFR.


----------



## heynowirv

TTA Rider Matt said:


> I am NOT an insider or anything, but what I've seen is OKW, AKL, SSR, HH, VB, and VGF to this point as the primary "targets". Please let me reiterate that this is solely based on what I've seen on different message boards. I am also waiting to see if anyone more "in the know" would answer this question, as I have a 50 point BWV contract that was just sent 8/21 at $140 a point. Good luck with yours, hopefully BWV contracts go unharmed!


I am good we passed on 7/22.Good luck with yours although 140. pp sounds like you should skate. Have some pixie dust.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

DVCstore just posted a 100 point AKL at $123 and a 60 point at $130.  Will be interesting to see how long those last.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

MMSM said:


> I must of read 1000 of pages on the Disboards about buying DVC.  A lot of posts have shown me the light in going for resale and not direct.  I can't even find Disney's direct listings- I have to talk directly with someone with all my information.  I usually go to Disney in March or April (spring break- I am a teacher).  I have only stayed (through rented points) at Beach Club (AND LOVED IT).  We were supposed to go to Poly and BLT this March but obviously we are rescheduled for this 2021 break.  I have a 13 and 15 year old so I always want studios that fit 5 people.  Moving forward, I can see wanting one bedrooms (although AK, BLT, VGF, OKW, and Riveria are only ones that fit 5?).  My husband and I are 41 and I am not sure if this is a good move. He keeps thinking there is "more than Disney" out there.  However, I can see my husband and I loving it and also hoping to have grand kids there.  What Use Year should I hope for?  A sales person chatted and told me September, Oct, or November is best.  Is it better to have smaller contracts like 100 or go for 200?  If I really love Beach Club should I try for that despite the higher payments and dues?  Or should I buy Saratoga and then hope for the best at 7 months that I can grab BLT, Poly, or Beach Club.  I am sorry for all these questions.  It is very overwhelming.  However, is this the best time for a buyer?


We purchased DVC only because of BCV, but that was twelve years ago, and even back then we paused because of the earlier expiration vs. SSR/BLT. When we purchased our kids were small (6&8) they are now 20 and 18. I really like all the resorts, my kids choice now is BCV or SSR. So if you are buying resale I would buy SSR resale. Also studios do usually go in the 11 month window at BCV and as of recently 2 bedrooms also seem to book up there - usually by right at the 7 month window. One bedrooms are easier to get so you should be able to use your SSR points over at BCV or even BWV for a 1 bedroom in the 7 month window. My kids its all about walkability and BCV - walk to Epcot or Hollywood and SSR - walk to DS with Bus access to everywhere from there.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

Starport Seven-Five said:


> DVCstore just posted a 100 point AKL at $123 and a 60 point at $130.  Will be interesting to see how long those last.


it seems like resale prices are all over the place. Ultimately they are only worth what someone is willing to pay


----------



## CastAStone

dvc lover 1970 said:


> it seems like resale prices are all over the place. Ultimately they are only worth what someone is willing to pay


I think many people who are buying would be willing to pay more than the asking prices, and my evidence for that is that we’ve seen a sustained upward trend in pricing over the last several years. 

But supply and demand rules the day, and as long as there is meaningful supply, people who would probably be _willing_ to pay more aren’t going to have to, because sellers are willing to take less than the highest imaginable sale price for their contracts to ensure that _their_ contract doesn’t sit on the market forever.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

CastAStone said:


> I think many people who are buying would be willing to pay more than the asking prices, and my evidence for that is that we’ve seen a sustained upward trend in pricing over the last several years.
> 
> But supply and demand rules the day, and as long as there is meaningful supply, people who would probably be _willing_ to pay more aren’t going to have to, because sellers are willing to take less than the highest imaginable sale price for their contracts to ensure that _their_ contract doesn’t sit on the market forever.


Agree.. supply and demand and economy and of course ROFR. Another factor is how bad someone wants a contract due to specific use year and or amount of points on the contract


----------



## disneykim17

What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?


----------



## poofyo101

disneykim17 said:


> What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?


extremely unlikely.


----------



## striker1064

disneykim17 said:


> What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?



Probably close to zero. They are high to push people to the resort currently in sales.


----------



## Dean

disneykim17 said:


> What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?


Short term I think it depends on the economy and how long this all goes on.  The prices likely won't come down but there could be incentives that reduce the price.  IF so you'll likely see bigger incentives for the resorts in active sales a well.  My guess is they will not.  I suspect the 2042 resorts and moderate location resorts will hold and the others will go higher over time thus widening the divide.


----------



## CastAStone

disneykim17 said:


> What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?


They will balance the prices to ensure that at worst they are able to sell as many contracts as they acquire via foreclosure and the like.

In theory that could involve lowering prices, but we saw them offer small incentives this summer on sold out resorts, and I think it’s safe to say that the tiny incentives worked extremely well since they ran themselves out of inventory on many resorts. So unless things get _really_ bad, I’d assume they will just use incentives to influence sales when needed.


----------



## MICKIMINI

disneykim17 said:


> What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?


ZERO.  That is just my opinion.


----------



## TCRAIG

disneykim17 said:


> What are the chances that the direct sales prices at the sold out resorts come down vs. going up higher?


I do think direct prices for BWV, BC, HH and WLV/BRV will come down sometime around 2040


----------



## bookwormde

8/24 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280% of average


----------



## EM Lawrence

All of you are way more optimistic on the economy and DVC sales over the next few years than I am!  The pool of buyers who want to add on or were waiting for sales to reopen is going to burn itself out  pretty quickly.  Then DVC is going to need to rely on foot traffic in the parks to make sales. I don’t think that foot traffic is going to recover to pre-Covid levels for several years. Of course, I could be totally wrong.  I’m generally an optimistic person, but in this case, I am a pessimist.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

EM Lawrence said:


> All of you are way more optimistic on the economy and DVC sales over the next few years than I am!  The pool of buyers who want to add on or were waiting for sales to reopen is going to burn itself out  pretty quickly.  Then DVC is going to need to rely on foot traffic in the parks to make sales. I don’t think that foot traffic is going to recover to pre-Covid levels for several years. Of course, I could be totally wrong.  I’m generally an optimistic person, but in this case, I am a pessimist.


I tend to agree. if we had not vested so much in Disney over the years, I would not be going anytime in the near future - meaning the next couple years, but - I have points to use so we of course we be going


----------



## bookwormde

8/25 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 220% of average


----------



## bookwormde

compared to last week

DVC resale 263 down 3

Fidelity 134 down 2

TSS 146 down 14


----------



## gisele2

For those hunting for small AKV contracts, go see the  listing of the sponsor .


----------



## Ruttangel

gisele2 said:


> For those hunting for small AKV contracts, go see the  listing of the sponsor .


Just saw that 50pt for $105, won’t be there long


----------



## becauseimnew

gisele2 said:


> For those hunting for small AKV contracts, go see the  listing of the sponsor .





Ruttangel said:


> Just saw that 50pt for $105, won’t be there long


man... I totally missed that for $105, where was it listed?


----------



## Ruttangel

becauseimnew said:


> man... I totally missed that for $105, where was it listed?


On the email DVC store said it was $105 but when I just followed link it was $128


----------



## bookwormde

8/26 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 180% of average


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Ruttangel said:


> On the email DVC store said it was $105 but when I just followed link it was $128


Text I received was $128 as well.

Dvcresalemarket dropped a whopper yesterday


----------



## becauseimnew

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Text I received was $128 as well.
> 
> Dvcresalemarket dropped a whopper yesterday
> View attachment 522041


At least it doesn’t say only full offer will be accepted.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Text I received was $128 as well.
> 
> Dvcresalemarket dropped a whopper yesterday
> View attachment 522041



Here are a couple more that make me go 


9OK252WOld Key West60$140Feb60 points coming Feb 1, 2021 + 60 for 2022, *Extended to 2057!*$8,400More info9OK253WOld Key West70$140Feb82 points coming Feb 1, 2021 (70 + 12 banked) + 70 for 2022, *Extended to 2057!*$9,800More info


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

Fidelity has an AKV contract listed under $100.  Hoping that there will be more to follow under $100 for AKV in the coming weeks and months.


----------



## davidl81

ABE4DISNEY said:


> Here are a couple more that make me go
> 
> 
> 9OK252WOld Key West60$140Feb60 points coming Feb 1, 2021 + 60 for 2022, *Extended to 2057!*$8,400More info9OK253WOld Key West70$140Feb82 points coming Feb 1, 2021 (70 + 12 banked) + 70 for 2022, *Extended to 2057!*$9,800More info


Sure they seem high, but someone will buy them pretty quickly.  Small extended OKW contracts are super rare and this still saves $25 a point over buying direct (so $1500 on the 60 point contract).  When you have something as rare as an extended small point OKW contract you ask for a high price.


----------



## sethschroeder

davidl81 said:


> Sure they seem high, but someone will buy them pretty quickly.  Small extended OKW contracts are super rare and this still saves $25 a point over buying direct (so $1500 on the 60 point contract).  When you have something as rare as an extended small point OKW contract you ask for a high price.



I mean you can get a 100 point contract likely for the same price though. I guess someone might pay more to not have the extra points though.


----------



## davidl81

sethschroeder said:


> I mean you can get a 100 point contract likely for the same price though. I guess someone might pay more to not have the extra points though.


That is a somewhat fair point, although a 100 point OKW extend contract would very likely be still over $100 per point.  Heck a 2042 100 point contract is over $100 a point (which is insane to me BTW).


----------



## sethschroeder

davidl81 said:


> That is a somewhat fair point, although a 100 point OKW extend contract would very likely be still over $100 per point.  Heck a 2042 100 point contract is over $100 a point (which is insane to me BTW).



I have randomly come across some for like $103-$107 area at like 125-175 pints. If I was targeting an extend contract for 100 points I likely would target $97 or 150 points would target $95 area.

Haven't looked much though. I would honestly likely just buy direct if the point difference was $20-$30. Might not be a ton of value right now but long term I would have options from 2042-2057 to stay in the Epcot area which I otherwise would not have.


----------



## davidl81

sethschroeder said:


> I have randomly come across some for like $103-$107 area at like 125-175 pints. If I was targeting an extend contract for 100 points I likely would target $97 or 150 points would target $95 area.
> 
> Haven't looked much though. I would honestly likely just buy direct if the point difference was $20-$30. Might not be a ton of value right now but long term I would have options from 2042-2057 to stay in the Epcot area which I otherwise would not have.


I agree and at 140 a point I would also just buy direct so I could use them at DVC2 resorts.  But I would bet those contracts don't stay acive long, and maybe they will take less than $140, but it won't be that much less.  (Looks like non extended contracts in that point range are listing for about $115 in average, so I think a "fair" price would be 125-130ish).


----------



## sethschroeder

> Sorry completely new to this didn’t even realize I had to format it in a certain way. Is this what you mean:
> 
> sgserenity---$93.75-$15613.60-160-AKV-Dec-0/18, 123/19, 320/20, 160/21- sent 7/18, passed 8/25



Case and point that Disney is not doing ROFR like normal.

From the ROFR thread

Only been 2 contracts that low in the ROFR threads in the last year to pass prior to COVID19


----------



## bookwormde

8/27 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average


----------



## holyrita

sethschroeder said:


> Case and point that Disney is not doing ROFR like normal.
> 
> From the ROFR thread
> 
> Only been 2 contracts that low in the ROFR threads in the last year to pass prior to COVID19



So grateful to have had our AKV contract pass while Disney was not exercising ROFR


----------



## cmarsh31

bookwormde said:


> 8/24 update
> 
> number of newly posted resale contracts at about 280% of average


I see so many that would work for us, but with prices on small contracts much higher than when we bought in less than three years ago, it's pretty easy to keep waiting. Maybe we'll missed out... but I'm sticking with my budget.


----------



## bookwormde

8/28 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 120% of average


----------



## becauseimnew

cmarsh31 said:


> I see so many that would work for us, but with prices on small contracts much higher than when we bought in less than three years ago, it's pretty easy to keep waiting. Maybe we'll missed out... but I'm sticking with my budget.


I can’t believe the prices of small contracts. I am seeing more smaller contracts up for sale. They go pending super fast, I can’t believe people are willing to pay those prices.


----------



## cmarsh31

becauseimnew said:


> I can’t believe the prices of small contracts. I am seeing more smaller contracts up for sale. They go pending super fast, I can’t believe people are willing to pay those prices.



Plus with the current borrowing restrictions, unless you're adding on to a same contract, 50 Poly points or 25 SSR points aren't going to do you any good... I was thinking of a small contract to use at 7 months, or bank/borrow every other year. Right now, all of our AKV points get used for 2bd value stays  but a studio here or there would be nice for long weekend!


----------



## CLE2WDW

Looking at the ROFR board it seems like the 2042s are finally coming back to reality. I saw a BCV contract cleared ROFR in the 130s and that hasn’t happened in a while. Quite frankly it baffles me that BCV contracts are still listed in the 150s (outside of small contracts).  As they near under 20 years of useful life I expect prices to fall fairly rapidly because there will likely be little support from DVC on the ROFR side. It would be hard to fathom someone buying BCV through DVC at $230/point for under 20 years of use. Just my two cents.


----------



## sethschroeder

CLE2WDW said:


> As they near under 20 years of useful life I expect prices to fall fairly rapidly



Doubtful outside of VGC it likely is the top resort within DVC and is probably the #2 location to buy where you never use your points anywhere else. Its also a tiny resort with only 282 rooms.

20-21 years is still a very long time and when people buy they typically are worried about cost savings over a 5-10 year span. What happens in a year 15-20-25-30 is of less consequence.



CLE2WDW said:


> someone buying BCV through DVC at $230/point



Well there are a few people who do buy direct but ROFR also does not control the price.



CLE2WDW said:


> it baffles me that BCV contracts are still listed in the 150s



What are you comparing it to? Remember at BCV rooms are cheaper, MFs are cheaper, total cost is cheaper, and roughly 50% of buyers likely only need 10-20 years out of DVC in their minds either because kids will grow up or they are retirement age.

*As always my 9 night October Trip point comparison *_(I don't travel then just a good "mid cost" season)_*:*
BCV Studio: 148 Points
BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC]
VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase)
Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase)
RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase)

BCV 2BR: 397 Points
BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase)
VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase)
Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase)
RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase)

Lets not even forget to mention it is the only resort that could be treated as having a mini water park attached to it.


----------



## CastAStone

BCV is less than halfway through its 40 years. It’s certainly the most expensive resale resort by most metrics, and it’s the worst value, direct or resale, by almost any metric (vs renting, vs cash rates, factoring in inflation and opportunity cost, not factoring in inflation and opportunity cost, etc).

I’ve run a tremendous amount of calculations on BCV and here are my takeaways:

Vs cash from Disney, when factoring in opportunity cost and inflation, there still a lot of value at current prices for studios and two bedrooms. Obviously it varies by day, but it is still possible to save as much as 50% versus cash rates with studios. 1 bedrooms are about break even when factoring in opportunity cost and inflation.

Vs renting points, BCV doesn’t make much sense to own at current prices, no matter what type of room you want to stay in (again, factoring in inflation and opportunity cost).

BUT

At certain travel times, it can be difficult to rent points for Beach Club Villas. Plus not everyone wants to rent points. Plus lots of people don’t like to factor in opportunity cost, which makes the math look better, so the comparisons aren’t as brutal as they are here.

And finally, don’t forget, a lot of people buy DVC because it’s a thing they want, just like they would a couch or a shirt. A Vineyard Vines t-shirt is obviously and objectively a horrendous “deal” compared to other shirts. But you’ll see dozens of them every day at Beach Club Villas. If that’s why you want it, then none of this really matters.

Anyhoo, if we can find a really good deal, we’re going to buy eventually. I don’t expect prices to fall significantly faster than any other resort for the next couple years.


----------



## ForWhomTheMouseTolls

I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club. Why didn’t Disney give it a full 50 year contract when they built the villas?


----------



## sethschroeder

ForWhomTheMouseTolls said:


> I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club. Why didn’t Disney give it a full 50 year contract when they built the villas?



All expirations at the same time I think was the idea then they realized it would be better just to have a new time period each resort so they could sell it for more.

That's how I understand it.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

cmarsh31 said:


> Plus with the current borrowing restrictions, unless you're adding on to a same contract, 50 Poly points or 25 SSR points aren't going to do you any good... I was thinking of a small contract to use at 7 months, or bank/borrow every other year. Right now, all of our AKV points get used for 2bd value stays  but a studio here or there would be nice for long weekend!


Agreed.  I've always been surprised there isn't more of a bell curve to prices with the lowest point contracts falling off as they're of little use unless it's your exact UY/resort.

The other thing people don't consider is closing costs.  They're kind of negligable when you're buying larger contracts but when only buying 25 points, $485 is $19.40 per point.


sethschroeder said:


> *As always my 9 night October Trip point comparison *_(I don't travel then just a good "mid cost" season)_*:*
> BCV Studio: 148 Points
> BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC]
> VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase)
> Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase)
> RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase)
> 
> BCV 2BR: 397 Points
> BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase)
> VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase)
> Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase)
> RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase)


The problem is that even with the lower points, BCV doesn't end up cheaper due to how the purchase price amortizes into remaining years.  This is using last month's resale prices from dvcresalemarket:

_BCV Studio: 148 Points - _*$2074*
_BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC] - _*$1788*
_VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase) -_ *$1773*
_Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase) - _*$1865*
_RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase) - _*$1830*

_BCV 2BR: 397 Points - *$*_*5564*
_BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase) - _*$4557*
_VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase) - _*$5278*
_Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase) - _*$12698*
_RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase) _- *$5173*

If you had thrown Boardwalk in though it would have come in below any of the resorts listed... so there is something to be said that not all of the 2042 resorts are crazy overpriced.


----------



## ForWhomTheMouseTolls

sethschroeder said:


> All expirations at the same time I think was the idea then they realized it would be better just to have a new time period each resort so they could sell it for more.
> 
> That's how I understand it.



Very strange. I’m shocked they went in that direction. Part of the reason why Riviera was attractive is because we do plan our trips up to a year in advance (we have a vacation spreadsheet that goes years out), and we knew we would use it for at least 40 of the next 50 years and then it could go to our daughter.

I’ve stayed at BC multiple times, and can’t get over the black mold I found in our bathrooms two years in a row. Storm Along Bay is a great value, but I can’t imagine paying that dollar amount for access to a water park for 20 years.


----------



## sethschroeder

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Agreed.  I've always been surprised there isn't more of a bell curve to prices with the lowest point contracts falling off as they're of little use unless it's your exact UY/resort.
> 
> The other thing people don't consider is closing costs.  They're kind of negligable when you're buying larger contracts but when only buying 25 points, $485 is $19.40 per point.
> 
> The problem is that even with the lower points, BCV doesn't end up cheaper due to how the purchase price amortizes into remaining years.  This is using last month's resale prices from dvcresalemarket:
> 
> _BCV Studio: 148 Points - _*$2074*
> _BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC] - _*$1788*
> _VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase) -_ *$1773*
> _Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase) - _*$1865*
> _RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase) - _*$1830*
> 
> _BCV 2BR: 397 Points - *$*_*5564*
> _BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase) - _*$4557*
> _VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase) - _*$5278*
> _Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase) - _*$12698*
> _RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase) _- *$5173*
> 
> If you had thrown Boardwalk in though it would have come in below any of the resorts listed... so there is something to be said that not all of the 2042 resorts are crazy overpriced.



Except it's not overpriced per your chart. That is $200-$300 for the 9 nights ($22-$33/night) for what some consider a superior offering.

Plenty of people can justify a fairly small difference.

Not sure what you are doing the math off though? What resale price point for each resort?

In the end have to remember the benefit to value of small resorts is you need less "BCV or the highway" people compared to something with a larger room count.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

sethschroeder said:


> Except it's not overpriced per your chart. That is $200-$300 for the 9 nights ($22-$33/night) for what some consider a superior offering.
> 
> Plenty of people can justify a fairly small difference.
> 
> Not sure what you are doing the math off though? What resale price point for each resort?
> 
> In the end have to remeber the benefit to value of small resorts is you need less "BCV or the highway" people compared to something with a larger room count.


Resale prices per resort were taken from here:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
Yes, we can get into what people value and certainly some will pay more for BCV.  My only point is that it's more expensive than any of the resorts listed (minus the Poly bungalows) even with the point chart advantages considered.


----------



## sethschroeder

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Resale prices per resort were taken from here:
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-july-2020/
> Yes, we can get into what people value and certainly some will pay more for BCV.  My only point is that it's more expensive than any of the resorts listed (minus the Poly bungalows) even with the point chart advantages considered.



Except it's negligible and not to an extent where prices would plummet like was suggested.

You have the math possibly still how much would BCV need to drop to be cheaper for a studio? Maybe $10?


----------



## CastAStone

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Agreed.  I've always been surprised there isn't more of a bell curve to prices with the lowest point contracts falling off as they're of little use unless it's your exact UY/resort.
> 
> The other thing people don't consider is closing costs.  They're kind of negligable when you're buying larger contracts but when only buying 25 points, $485 is $19.40 per point.
> 
> The problem is that even with the lower points, BCV doesn't end up cheaper due to how the purchase price amortizes into remaining years.  This is using last month's resale prices from dvcresalemarket:
> 
> _BCV Studio: 148 Points - _*$2074*
> _BLT Studio Lake: 175 points (16% increase) [BLT Standard view smallest normal category in DVC] - _*$1788*
> _VGF Studio Std: 174 points (15% increase) -_ *$1773*
> _Poly Studio Std: 183 points (19% increase) - _*$1865*
> _RIV Studio Std: 161 points (8% increase) - _*$1830*
> 
> _BCV 2BR: 397 Points - *$*_*5564*
> _BLT 2BR Lake: 446 Points (11% increase) - _*$4557*
> _VGF 2BR Std: 518 Points (24% increase) - _*$5278*
> _Poly 2BR Bungalow: 1246 (68% increase) - _*$12698*
> _RIV 2BR Std: 455 (2% increase) _- *$5173*
> 
> If you had thrown Boardwalk in though it would have come in below any of the resorts listed... so there is something to be said that not all of the 2042 resorts are crazy overpriced.


I’m a little confused by your math, but I know that for me, I’d gladly pay $300 Per week more for Beach Club then the other resorts you listed. If we’re not differentiating the resorts based on preferences and amenities, we should all be staying at All Star Movies.

And cash, that room would be $4000. So using your math, it’s still a good deal by comparison. It’s just not the best deal.

If your point is that beach club is an absolutely terrible choice for sleep around points, I don’t think anyone would disagree.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

sethschroeder said:


> Except it's negligible and not to an extent where prices would plummet like was suggested.
> 
> You have the math possibly still how much would BCV need to drop to be cheaper for a studio? Maybe $10?


Irregardless of if it's "negligable" (debatable) the total cost is not cheaper for BCV.  That was my only point above.

To bring it to ~$1830 per trip, it would need to go from $146->$111 per point.



CastAStone said:


> I’m a little confused by your math, but I know that for me, I’d gladly pay $300 Per week more for Beach Club then the other resorts you listed. If we’re not differentiating the resorts based on preferences and amenities, we should all be staying at All Star Movies.
> 
> And cash, that room would be $4000. So using your math, it’s still a good deal by comparison. It’s just not the best deal.
> 
> If your point is that beach club is an absolutely terrible choice for sleep around points, I don’t think anyone would disagree.


I was specifically replying to this along with the examples given.


sethschroeder said:


> What are you comparing it to? *Remember at BCV rooms are cheaper,* MFs are cheaper,* total cost is cheaper, *and roughly 50% of buyers likely only need 10-20 years out of DVC in their minds either because kids will grow up or they are retirement age.


----------



## Dean

ForWhomTheMouseTolls said:


> I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club. Why didn’t Disney give it a full 50 year contract when they built the villas?


As noted, they had them all expiring at the same time likely as an exit strategy.  I've personally never understood BCV as to me it's BWV standard view at higher prices but obviously some people don't agree or else it wouldn't be more expensive in spite of the small # of units.


----------



## sethschroeder

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Irregardless of if it's "negligable" (debatable) the total cost is not cheaper for BCV.  That was my only point above.
> 
> To bring it to ~$1830 per trip, it would need to go from $146->$111 per point.
> 
> 
> I was specifically replying to this along with the examples given.



Except
You are paying less MFs each year
You are buying BCV less

Remember your math is based on putting equal value on something 22 to 40 years from now.

That is my point some people will take the lower cost now associated with BCV and not worry about a cost in 2042 or after because they only care about the next 10-20 years.

As an example your biggest cost savings in your chart was BLT:
BCV Studio upfront cost - $21,608
BLT Studio upfront cost - $24,850

Annual MFs:
BCV - $1045.38
BLT - $1147.48

Then when all is said and done and you look back the cost comes out to $22-$33/night more after 20 years. To get that savings though you have to continue to use that other contract for another 20 years or cash out for whatever it will be worth when roughly 1/3rd of the resorts expire from the current model and flip in to resale restrictions.

Remember the BCV owner actually has saved money from year 1 to 21 by owning there. The owners of other resorts savings is based on additional time (which is not free) or selling the contract (unknown equation comparing BCV vs BLT in 2030/2035 but we do know BCV is $0 in 2042 with no idea value of BLT).


----------



## CarolMN

Dean said:


> As noted, they had them all expiring at the same time likely as an exit strategy.  I've personally never understood BCV as to me it's BWV standard view at higher prices but obviously some people don't agree or else it wouldn't be more expensive in spite of the small # of units.


I agree.  To me the only difference is SAB, and since we are not pool people, BCV has no appeal, especially since we think BWV has the better location.


----------



## sethschroeder

I want to be clear I am not advocating everyone buy BCV. I just think its how you personally look at it and choose to account for things. Someone more worried about immediate costs might see a benefit from a lower contract during the next 21 years.

I also just bought RIV Direct @$155/point and have/will sell my BWV contract because of long term value.

We can only assume when 2042 expiration occurs that resale prices stay steady or have a slight reduction. There is also potential for gridlock headaches after 2042 for resale owners as all you will have left primarily is MK Resorts, AKV, SSR/OKW, Hawaii, VGC which possibly impacts "value" to that owner and resale value.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> and have/will sell my BWV contract because of long term value.


Can you take me through your math on this one? Because I get hung up on it.

It’s $4,207 to book a standard room at BWV with cash in Mid October, or $4,138 at BWI. Assuming a 30% discount, the lower rate is $2,896.

A week is 90 points. So you’re getting $32.18/point in value out of the DVC contract. Take away the $7.37 in dues and it’s $24.81 per point per year of value. When people are looking at that contract with five years left, that’s what they’re going to see - $24 of value per year for 5 years = $120 inherent value. And no they won’t pay $120 for it, but it’s not like it’ll go for $50 either. Why are you convinced it will lose meaningful value?


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> Can you take me through your math on this one? Because I get hung up on it.
> 
> It’s $4,207 to book a standard room at BWV with cash in Mid October, or $4,138 at BWI. Assuming a 30% discount, the lower rate is $2,896.
> 
> A week is 90 points. So you’re getting $32.18/point in value out of the DVC contract. Take away the $7.37 in dues and it’s $24.81 per point per year of value. When people are looking at that contract with five years left, that’s what they’re going to see - $24 of value per year for 5 years = $120 inherent value. And no they won’t pay $120 for it, but it’s not like it’ll go for $50 either. Why are you convinced it will lose meaningful value?



Sorry you read in to that statement incorrectly. I meant I bought RIV with the intention to sell my BWV because of the 50 year contract and being able to "half" my per point usage cost from just over $6/point to just over $3/point. So the long term cost I have invested in to each point is lower.

I normally do my rough estimate for the final 10 years as follows:

50% discount off Rack Rate
MF cost removal
50% off "break even" with discounted cash room
So that would be $4138 (50% discount) gives me $2069. Remove MFs of $663.30 to lower price to $1405.70. Person will want a discount to buy DVC not to just break even so 50% discount will mean they are willing to pay $702.85 each year or $7.94/point.

Now this is a worst case scenario in my mind. In reality I expect hotel rates to vastly outpace MFs increases and this also accounts for a 50% discount on the cash side which we know is unlikely (yes right now there might be one but I am willing to be between 2032-2041 there is might only be a handful of discounts like that). So more like a $10/point value is more accurate. I don't honestly see BWV being impacted really at all until we are inside that 10 year period, I have stated a few times I think most people buying only care about the first 5-10 years and if it saves them money (some people actually likely avoid DVC because of the long term potential risk).


----------



## davidl81

sethschroeder said:


> Sorry you read in to that statement incorrectly. I meant I bought RIV with the intention to sell my BWV because of the 50 year contract and being able to "half" my per point usage cost from just over $6/point to just over $3/point. So the long term cost I have invested in to each point is lower.
> 
> I normally do my rough estimate for the final 10 years as follows:
> 
> 50% discount off Rack Rate
> MF cost removal
> 50% off "break even" with discounted cash room
> So that would be $4138 (50% discount) gives me $2069. Remove MFs of $663.30 to lower price to $1405.70. Person will want a discount to buy DVC not to just break even so 50% discount will mean they are willing to pay $702.85 each year or $7.94/point.
> 
> Now this is a worst case scenario in my mind. In reality I expect hotel rates to vastly outpace MFs increases and this also accounts for a 50% discount on the cash side which we know is unlikely (yes right now there might be one but I am willing to be between 2032-2041 there is might only be a handful of discounts like that). So more like a $10/point value is more accurate. I don't honestly see BWV being impacted really at all until we are inside that 10 year period, I have stated a few times I think most people buying only care about the first 5-10 years and if it saves them money (some people actually likely avoid DVC because of the long term potential risk).


I think you may be on to something with the long term risk.  Even 5 years from now when there is about 15 years left on the contract some people may prefer that because they know worst case they can’t resell the contract 10 years later, but they only have 5 years of dues left.  As opposed to many time shares where even with 20 years left owners usually have to pay a seller to get out of those fees.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

ForWhomTheMouseTolls said:


> I don’t understand spending as much as people do on Beach Club.


----------



## jlb727

ABE4DISNEY said:


> View attachment 522586



Also, a 5 minute walk to...


----------



## lovethesun12

ABE4DISNEY said:


> View attachment 522586


Yeah that's why some of us look at the person who married the Eiffel Tower and don't think "hey that's strange", instead we see opportunity. *Daydreams*....First name: lovethesun12. Last name: SAB. . (unfortunately there was no emoji for a person smooching SAB. There should be).


----------



## bookwormde

8/29 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 80% of average


----------



## TCRAIG

I bought BC over BWV for 2 reasons - you need to own at BC if you want to book there and and we prefer Epcot to HS...


----------



## bookwormde

8/30 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 140% of average 

For the week of 8/17 to 8/23 newly posted resale contracts at about 190% of average


----------



## the_grinch

Hey @bookwormde ,I like your update just hoping you could make a graph of all the data so it would be so much easier to follow thanks for your work


----------



## Brian Noble

the_grinch said:


> just hoping you could make a graph of all the data so it would be so much easier to follow thanks for your work


You know, you could do that yourself if you really wanted it. And, like the OP, you could even then voluntarily share it with others after you did it.


----------



## the_grinch

i would think  @bookwormde  has all the data points so would be much easier for him to do, i would have to go though the thread a pull out all data point plus i am no good at graphs.also i only asked did not strong arm him at all .or you could do it


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

jlb727 said:


> Also, a 5 minute walk to... View attachment 522681


What about if Disney permanently eliminates park hopping, or limits it?  Or if the weird reservation system stays in place?  The value of those contracts would go down by quite a bit. Not only do we pop into Epcot for dinner when staying at BCV and BWV, but we like to walk through Epcot to take the monorail to the MK.  This new reservation system and lack of park hopping totally changes the dynamic of those resorts for us.


----------



## lovethesun12

we"reofftoneverland said:


> What about if Disney permanently eliminates park hopping, or limits it?  Or if the weird reservation system stays in place?  The value of those contracts would go down by quite a bit. Not only do we pop into Epcot for dinner when staying at BCV and BWV, but we like to walk through Epcot to take the monorail to the MK.  This new reservation system and lack of park hopping totally changes the dynamic of those resorts for us.


This is one of the many reasons I highly doubt it's a permanent change. They are doing and enforcing a lot of new things they don't want to right now. I think this is probably one of them.


----------



## sethschroeder

we"reofftoneverland said:


> What about if Disney permanently eliminates park hopping, or limits it?  Or if the weird reservation system stays in place?  The value of those contracts would go down by quite a bit. Not only do we pop into Epcot for dinner when staying at BCV and BWV, but we like to walk through Epcot to take the monorail to the MK.  This new reservation system and lack of park hopping totally changes the dynamic of those resorts for us.



Over reaction alert.....

They already have standard park hopper tickets available for sale next year. Parks close to capacity rarely and if it occurs its on 3 different days (Easter, Christmas, New Years Eve) in typically only MK.

On top of that any limitations are likely to be placed on day guests or AP holders visiting for the day. Onsite guests (including DVC which is included partly because we share MFs with cash side) would have priority to any system that was created.

You absolutely will see restrictions on park access through the end of the year if not start of next year. These are a short term impact based on needing to keep total capacity down. This was discussed before Disney even reopened or made any announcement that it was likely parks would open at a small capacity.

People need to stop acting like a short term impact of not getting a reservation because parks are artificially being reduced in capacity is somehow Disneys long term plan. Put it this way if Disney keeps capacity at 25% then expect a 300-500% ticket price increase.


----------



## bookwormde

8/21 update

number of newly posted resale contracts at about 300% of average


----------



## bookwormde

the_grinch said:


> Hey @bookwormde ,I like your update just hoping you could make a graph of all the data so it would be so much easier to follow thanks for your work


creating visuals is not my strong point, but when things show down for me I will give it a shot

are you just looking for the dailies or is there something else?


----------



## the_grinch

just the dailies, i was just curious about it no real hurry or importance, but would appreciate it thank you


----------



## Wakey

TCRAIG said:


> I bought BC over BWV for 2 reasons - you need to own at BC if you want to book there and and we prefer Epcot to HS...



Not often in 1 beds, in studios it certainly helps.


----------



## TCRAIG

Wakey said:


> Not often in 1 beds, in studios it certainly helps.


We like BC for our fall frenzy trip (late Sept/Oct) - used to be able to get a week in a 1Br at 7 mos but not since people discovered F&W and how to walk a ressie - so I bought after that - now I just don’t worry about it.


----------



## Disneygal22

I got an email the prices are going up


----------



## disneykim17

Disneygal22 said:


> I got an email the prices are going up


When are they going up and how much are the going up?


----------



## heynowirv

dvc lover 1970 said:


> it seems like resale prices are all over the place. Ultimately they are only worth what someone is willing to pay


Agreed


----------



## Ruttangel

https://www.dvcbyresale.com/buy.php?listid=1676552124341543BLT 270pts in 2020, listed at $126 - just posted in case anyone interested


----------



## toontoy

I think it depends upon the economy. Right now the programs to keep people employed are ending and some industries are planning massive layoffs. If the economy starts to sink then so will the prices. Whats makes this harder than 08 is more artificial stabilization is taking place but the question is will it continue or end at the end of the month.


----------



## masupo

Ruttangel said:


> https://www.dvcbyresale.com/buy.php?listid=1676552124341543270pts in 2020, listed at $126 - just posted in case anyone interested



Thanks for posting the link! It's a bit more points than I'm looking for in my first purchase, but I definitely appreciate seeing good deals posted.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

disneykim17 said:


> When are they going up and how much are the going up?


I think its september 16 and it's basically the incentives for AU, CCV and RR will go away. However I think they are planning to increase blue card minimum and figure they can get people that way. What they fail to realize is those that will buy direct will buy direct and those who want resale will buy resale.


----------



## sethschroeder

dvc lover 1970 said:


> What they fail to realize is those that will buy direct will buy direct and those who want resale will buy resale.



You see all the time "I am going to buy direct for a single contract then the rest resale". Disney is just getting a bigger check out of people. The people passing they feel will be made up for by people adding the extra 25 points (possibly then 50 to get to discounts).

Doesn't matter because you see what their long term plan is for resale with Riviera.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

sethschroeder said:


> You see all the time "I am going to buy direct for a single contract then the rest resale". Disney is just getting a bigger check out of people. The people passing they feel will be made up for by people adding the extra 25 points (possibly then 50 to get to discounts).
> 
> Doesn't matter because you see what their long term plan is for resale with Riviera.


Very disappointed in the resale restrictions there. I considered an add on there...still tugging at me but the restrictions for resale really bother me. I think for resale purposes CCV is the better direct buy and those who want RR should look resale in a year. If resale prices are decent in a year or two I might pick up a small contract there. I still am concerned of RR owners being locked out in the 11 month window.


----------



## Momtomouselover

dvc lover 1970 said:


> Very disappointed in the resale restrictions there. I considered an add on there...still tugging at me but the restrictions for resale really bother me. If resale prices are decent in a year or two I might pick up a small contract there.



It was a combination of resale restrictions and the high MFs that held me back. If one or the other was better then I probably would have bought direct Riviera. I would consider a low low resale of RIV with the idea that I would only hold on to it for a little while.


----------



## sethschroeder

dvc lover 1970 said:


> Very disappointed in the resale restrictions there. I considered an add on there...still tugging at me but the restrictions for resale really bother me. I think for resale purposes CCV is the better direct buy and those who want RR should look resale in a year. If resale prices are decent in a year or two I might pick up a small contract there. I still am concerned of RR owners being locked out in the 11 month window.



Ask yourself this question how much more per point will CCV sell for than RIV?


Got it?


Right now there is a $25/point savings on RIV over CCV. That means up front you are pocketing $2.5k on 100 points, $3.75k on 150 points, or $7.5k on 300 points. You can now compare.

Personally maybe there is a $50/point swing? So I would have kept 7.5k now to in 20 years sell for less.

If at some future time its a hard to book 11 month window I can either start walking reservations (doubt it ever gets fixed), use one of my 2 fixed weeks for studios, and typically book a 2BR (which I doubt becomes hard to book but could always shrink to a 1BR).

Also all the resort will be open to us allowing us to still move at 7 months (just like that CCV contract which already has issues with studios per reports).


----------



## Momtomouselover

sethschroeder said:


> Ask yourself this question how much more per point will CCV sell for than RIV?
> 
> 
> Got it?
> 
> 
> Right now there is a $25/point savings on RIV over CCV. That means up front you are pocketing $2.5k on 100 points, $3.75k on 150 points, or $7.5k on 300 points. You can now compare.
> 
> Personally maybe there is a $50/point swing? So I would have kept 7.5k now to in 20 years sell for less.
> 
> If at some future time its a hard to book 11 month window I can either start walking reservations (doubt it ever gets fixed), use one of my 2 fixed weeks for studios, and typically book a 2BR (which I doubt becomes hard to book but could always shrink to a 1BR).
> 
> Also all the resort will be open to us allowing us to still move at 7 months (just like that CCV contract which already has issues with studios per reports).



It makes sense if you are buying that many points and get the larger discount. At the smaller number of say 100 pts the math didn’t work for me especially given the high MFs. For what it’s worth I also wasn’t interested in CCV because of the studio issue and just not my favorite decor albeit at Christmas it would be nice. Idk, maybe if I thought RIV resale would stabilize around $135 but not sure it will in the long run and so combining that with the high MFs made it riskier if I sell in say 15 yrs. At least that was my thought process. I do like the resort though and have considered a direct purchase of SSR or AKL so I could book RIV at 7 months and get other blue card benefits.
* I may rerun the RIV numbers with a guaranteed week at a studio and see what I get.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

I agree RR is beautiful, but indo not need nor want more than 100 points there as we are already at around 1000. If the incentives were for 100 points I would probably have purchased there to have utilized every other year for a 1 bedroom. If booking 1 and 2 beds there should not be a problem. My question is 10 years down the road where maybe 50 percent is now resale - I remeber a survey somewhere that said on average most keep their dvc 10 years- what will happen to the resale buyers if they cannot book other resorts and are closed out of RR. I think this will affect studios the most. Direct buyers will be able to book anywhere. I am not certain dvc can implement that policy in the legacy resorts because of the overpriced and high point cabins and bungalows at CCV and poly. RR does not have those thank goodness


----------



## Sandisw

dvc lover 1970 said:


> I agree RR is beautiful, but indo not need nor want more than 100 points there as we are already at around 1000. If the incentives were for 100 points I would probably have purchased there to have utilized every other year for a 1 bedroom. If booking 1 and 2 beds there should not be a problem. My question is 10 years down the road where maybe 50 percent is now resale - I remeber a survey somewhere that said on average most keep their dvc 10 years- what will happen to the resale buyers if they cannot book other resorts and are closed out of RR. I think this will affect studios the most. Direct buyers will be able to book anywhere. I am not certain dvc can implement that policy in the legacy resorts because of the overpriced and high point cabins and bungalows at CCV and poly. RR does not have those thank goodness



It has been reported that on average, only about 20% of owners are resale...the rest remain direct,

Lots of resale contracts out there are indeed, prior resale owners, so one can’t look at that.  I myself bought and sold resale contacts so the new owners of those would not be adding to the number,

I also think that those buying RIV may indeed hold on longer to contracts because of the potential lower value..,so it remains to be seen if the original buyers of RiV sell as the same rate,

I still am surprised that RIV resale has gotten the prices it has.  I never expected that, even at the beginning.  I figured we’d see much lower prices to start.


----------



## holyrita

I was listening to a podcast and they said CCV is the only resort where resale contract points can be used to stay at Riviera, is that true? I was under the impression all resale contracts after a certain date could not be used at RR.


----------



## DaveNan

holyrita said:


> I was listening to a podcast and they said CCV is the only resort where resale contract points can be used to stay at Riviera, is that true? I was under the impression all resale contracts after a certain date could not be used at RR.


That is not correct.  If you buy resale points today...
RR resale points can only stay at RR.
All other resale points can stay at all resorts, with the exception of RR.  Non RR resale can not stay at RR.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

I think you misunderstood. Ccv and RR are still selling direct. Of the two when sold on resale, ccv can book any resort except RR. Rr resale in contrast can only book RR or trade into RCI direct points can book any resort anywhere


----------



## holyrita

DaveNan said:


> That is not correct.  If you buy resale points today...
> RR resale points can only stay at RR.
> All other resale points can stay at all resorts, with the exception of RR.  Non RR resale can not stay at RR.





dvc lover 1970 said:


> I think you misunderstood. Ccv and RR are still selling direct. Of the two when sold on resale, ccv can book any resort except RR. Rr resale in contrast can only book RR or trade into RCI direct points can book any resort anywhere


This was my understanding as well, but second guess myself when seemingly someone with more knowledge says otherwise. It's why I always come back here for the correct answers! Thanks!


----------



## Pluto777

becauseimnew said:


> I can’t believe the prices of small contracts. I am seeing more smaller contracts up for sale. They go pending super fast, I can’t believe people are willing to pay those prices.


I tell you my 2 cents opinion on these small contracts; in many cases (my own for example), I thought I would 'save money' buying a small one (I started my addiction with a 90 pointer). What often happens (and happenned to me) is 'addonitis'.. For example, instead of a single 200 point, you buy 2 100 point contracts. As a result you might just wind up paying more per point, more in transaction costs & have more headaches managing too many contracts for the exact same number of points versus simply buying 2 small ones instead of 1 big one. Just something for buyers out there to think about


----------



## holyrita

Pluto777 said:


> I tell you my 2 cents opinion on these small contracts; in many cases (my own for example), I thought I would 'save money' buying a small one (I started my addiction with a 90 pointer). What often happens (and happenned to me) is 'addonitis'.. For example, instead of a single 200 point, you buy 2 100 point contracts. As a result you might just wind up paying more per point, more in transaction costs & have more headaches managing too many contracts for the exact same number of points versus simply buying 2 small ones instead of 1 big one. Just something for buyers out there to think about


This is something I came to the realization of after completing the process for our first contract as well. If I could do it again I maybe would've gone for 50 points more. But who knows, if I did do that, would I still want another 50 points at the end of that? Does it ever really end?


----------



## Dean

Pluto777 said:


> I tell you my 2 cents opinion on these small contracts; in many cases (my own for example), I thought I would 'save money' buying a small one (I started my addiction with a 90 pointer). What often happens (and happenned to me) is 'addonitis'.. For example, instead of a single 200 point, you buy 2 100 point contracts. As a result you might just wind up paying more per point, more in transaction costs & have more headaches managing too many contracts for the exact same number of points versus simply buying 2 small ones instead of 1 big one. Just something for buyers out there to think about


I've cautioned about this for years.  Larger contracts are usually less per point and the closing costs are less per point in most situations.  Plus I would never recommend buying to sell later.  I would agree it's good to have options and consider exit situations but not paying a fair amount more for that insurance.


----------



## taaren

Pluto777 said:


> I tell you my 2 cents opinion on these small contracts; in many cases (my own for example), I thought I would 'save money' buying a small one (I started my addiction with a 90 pointer). What often happens (and happenned to me) is 'addonitis'.. For example, instead of a single 200 point, you buy 2 100 point contracts. As a result you might just wind up paying more per point, more in transaction costs & have more headaches managing too many contracts for the exact same number of points versus simply buying 2 small ones instead of 1 big one. Just something for buyers out there to think about


For my family "saving money" wasn't really a consideration in why we got our second small contract. It was simply that we happened to have that much to spend (and they weren't selling direct points at our resort in '10, so we went resale). I wonder how much of adding on small contracts isn't a long-term strategy so much as "I can afford a small one but not a large one." 
I will likely end up with a couple of more contracts that are small, because my addonitis hasn't been indulged since '10 (also have been waiting a decade so far for the DLH DVC) ... but also because its a lot easier to throw ~$10K at a contract than it is ~$20K. (Odds are good I'll do 75-100 at the DLH tower, and probably 80-100 in Florida for once-every-three-years once something with easy Epcot access and a price I can't walk away from makes me commit). A lot of other DISsers seem to be stuck on the idea of small contracts at multiple resorts because they love those resorts, rather than fiscal planning.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

holyrita said:


> This is something I came to the realization of after completing the process for our first contract as well. If I could do it again I maybe would've gone for 50 points more. But who knows, if I did do that, would I still want another 50 points at the end of that? *Does it ever really end?*


No, it doesn't.   

We began our search thinking that we would buy in at 100 points.

Took the advice to buy more than we think we need (and, to be honest, watching video room tours of 1BR and 2BR villas convinced us it was worth splurging on those larger rooms instead of studios) and ended up getting over twice as many points (220).  Less than a year later, we have a contract for another 160 points in ROFR now.

Meanwhile, I'm keeping my eyes open for a 50-100 point contract at a good price that I _"promise" _will be the last one.


----------



## TCRAIG

Nope - never ends - started with 160 resale SS points and now have 15 contracts...am waiting on Disney because I recently sold 2 small contracts but that was only because I want more WL/BRV points and in all honesty - if a 25 point BC bargain in my June UY ever shows up - I’ll be so tempted!!!- it’s funny though, that original 160 points is still my largest single contract..


----------



## davidl81

Pluto777 said:


> I tell you my 2 cents opinion on these small contracts; in many cases (my own for example), I thought I would 'save money' buying a small one (I started my addiction with a 90 pointer). What often happens (and happenned to me) is 'addonitis'.. For example, instead of a single 200 point, you buy 2 100 point contracts. As a result you might just wind up paying more per point, more in transaction costs & have more headaches managing too many contracts for the exact same number of points versus simply buying 2 small ones instead of 1 big one. Just something for buyers out there to think about



My gut feeling is the majority of small contracts are bought by current owners who are constantly borrowing a few points every year and they figure 50-75 extra points will keep them from doing that.  I just can’t see many people buying new with just 50 points, it’s just so few points and not really worth the hassle thank and borrow for one trip every three years.


----------



## glamdring269

davidl81 said:


> My gut feeling is the majority of small contracts are bought by current owners who are constantly borrowing a few points every year and they figure 50-75 extra points will keep them from doing that.  I just can’t see many people buying new with just 50 points, it’s just so few points and not really worth the hassle thank and borrow for one trip every three years.



I guess it depends on what you define as a trip. 50 points is plenty for an every other year studio trip for 5-6 nights (depending on resort). We just sold out lone contract and it was a 75 pointer. If we buy back in will probably do either 50 or 75 as it works well for our style of traveling.


----------



## igrsod

glamdring269 said:


> I guess it depends on what you define as a trip. 50 points is plenty for an every other year studio trip for 5-6 nights (depending on resort). We just sold out lone contract and it was a 75 pointer. If we buy back in will probably do either 50 or 75 as it works well for our style of traveling.


I was just thinking this.  50 points in a studio is great every other year.  For some people that's all the Disney they need..... sadly I don't fall into this group.  Bought our first 100 point contract fully loaded and used them all up real quick... decided to add on with a 42 point contract.  I think we are good now.


----------



## Cattrip

davidl81 said:


> That is a somewhat fair point, although a 100 point OKW extend contract would very likely be still over $100 per point.  Heck a 2042 100 point contract is over $100 a point (which is insane to me BTW).


So would you say 110pp OKW 2057 for 109 points  is a decent deal?


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

davidl81 said:


> My gut feeling is the majority of small contracts are bought by current owners who are constantly borrowing a few points every year and they figure 50-75 extra points will keep them from doing that.  I just can’t see many people buying new with just 50 points, it’s just so few points and not really worth the hassle thank and borrow for one trip every three years.





glamdring269 said:


> I guess it depends on what you define as a trip. 50 points is plenty for an every other year studio trip for 5-6 nights (depending on resort). We just sold out lone contract and it was a 75 pointer. If we buy back in will probably do either 50 or 75 as it works well for our style of traveling.





igrsod said:


> I was just thinking this.  50 points in a studio is great every other year.  For some people that's all the Disney they need..... sadly I don't fall into this group.  Bought our first 100 point contract fully loaded and used them all up real quick... decided to add on with a 42 point contract.  I think we are good now.



I have 60 points at BWV and (so far) it's gotten me 5-6 nights in a studio every year.   We space our trips about 11 months apart and save on AP's (what is it now? About $1600 for 4?).  Our small direct $10K DVC purchase has been great for us.  

In full disclosure, we are planning to travel differently as we age and are looking for more points but at a 2nd home resort.  However, I'm anticipating great deals hotel side on the horizon, so we may hold off and do some cash stays for a bit.  Honestly, we still like moderates.

I just feel like we have so much flexibility.  I've seen a few sweet point transfer deals we could have used, too.  We currently have a trip booked for Jan - split stay SSR and Poly - just needed a few OTU points to make that happen.  Expensive (ish) I guess, but then we didn't have to borrow.


----------



## CastAStone

Cattrip said:


> So would you say 110pp OKW 2057 for 109 points  is a decent deal?


If it has 2019 and 2020 points, then yes. If it’s stripped until 2021 or worse 2022, then no. If it’s in between, it’s probably an average to slightly above average price. Small OKW contracts are harder to come by though because the minimum was so high back then, and extended ones even more so. You might wait several months to save $500 or whatever.


----------



## Cattrip

CastAStone said:


> If it has 2019 and 2020 points, then yes. If it’s stripped until 2021 or worse 2022, then no. If it’s in between, it’s probably an average to slightly above average price. Small OKW contracts are harder to come by though because the minimum was so high back then, and extended ones even more so. You might wait several months to save $500 or whatever.


54/20,109/21 etc... Not totally stripped


----------



## TCRAIG

Cattrip said:


> So would you say 110pp OKW 2057 for 109 points  is a decent deal?


I’d call it a good deal


----------



## Buzz2014

What’s a fair point cost for a small boardwalk contract. When I research I see samples of 50pt but none for 25pt. So what is a good deal on a 25pt contract?


----------



## Ruttangel

Buzz2014 said:


> What’s a fair point cost for a small boardwalk contract. When I research I see samples of 50pt but none for 25pt. So what is a good deal on a 25pt contract?


Such a difficult question as they are pretty rare, around $150 wouldnt surprise me


----------



## striker1064

Buzz2014 said:


> What’s a fair point cost for a small boardwalk contract. When I research I see samples of 50pt but none for 25pt. So what is a good deal on a 25pt contract?



It's been a while since I've seen a 25pt BWV listed for sale. There was one a couple months ago listed at I believe $170 and the seller was not accepting anything below asking price.

For such a rare resale find, combined with the high price per point it will cost, the time it takes to actually get your points, and the amount of attention you will have to dedicate to all of the resale sites to actually be sure you're the one who gets it (because very small contracts go very fast), I'd probably consider just buying direct and being done with it.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

glamdring269 said:


> I guess it depends on what you define as a trip. 50 points is plenty for an every other year studio trip for 5-6 nights (depending on resort). We just sold out lone contract and it was a 75 pointer. If we buy back in will probably do either 50 or 75 as it works well for our style of traveling.


This is what we're targeting as well as we like to go every few years.  So much of the world to see and have to jam it into 3 weeks of vacation time (American standards of work/life balance) so we like to keep our options open.



striker1064 said:


> It's been a while since I've seen a 25pt BWV listed for sale. There was one a couple months ago listed at I believe $170 and the seller was not accepting anything below asking price.
> 
> For such a rare resale find, combined with the high price per point it will cost, the time it takes to actually get your points, and the amount of attention you will have to dedicate to all of the resale sites to actually be sure you're the one who gets it (because very small contracts go very fast), I'd probably consider just buying direct and being done with it.


I was thinking the same.  Quick search says that Boardwalk is selling for $190pp direct so a $20pp increase is $500 on 25 points.  I'd pay that to get my choice of UY and avoid "hunting" for a resale contract that is going to be quite rare.


----------



## sethschroeder

Buzz2014 said:


> What’s a fair point cost for a small boardwalk contract. When I research I see samples of 50pt but none for 25pt. So what is a good deal on a 25pt contract?





Ruttangel said:


> Such a difficult question as they are pretty rare, around $150 wouldnt surprise me



Yup or get lucky finding a listing. Another option is selling one of your contracts and buying a larger contract but doubt that math works out but who knows.

An alternative is to just keep borrowing until you run through all your points at which point find a point transfer that can cover you for 1-2 trips and that way you can bank your points to build up a supply again.


----------



## Cattrip

Ruttangel said:


> Such a difficult question as they are pretty rare, around $150 wouldnt surprise me


What is fair for a 50 point?


----------



## sethschroeder

Cattrip said:


> What is fair for a 50 point?



For BWV? There really isn't a correct answer. I think it could range from $125 to $160 just depending. While a 25 point contract is possibly harder to find 50 pointers don't grow on trees either.

It also will depend partly on your UY because some UY have way more of the point pool so it might be easier to find a small contract.

I sold a 30 and 50 point contract at BWV back in April for like $155 and $145 I think it was. I felt okay with those prices.


----------



## Ruttangel

Cattrip said:


> What is fair for a 50 point?


There are a few in the $140’s showing as pending sale on www.dvcresalemarket.com


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

Ruttangel said:


> There are a few in the $140’s showing as pending sale on www.dvcresalemarket.com


They were listed at that price, but we don't really know what they actually sold for.  They don't change the price to reflect lower offers being accepted.


----------



## Ruttangel

Grumpy by Birth said:


> They were listed at that price, but we don't really know what they actually sold for.  They don't change the price to reflect lower offers being accepted.


Yes, I always take a chunk off to guess what they went for, but low point contracts are the ones most likely to get taken at the list prices.


----------



## DVCanonymouse

Grumpy by Birth said:


> They were listed at that price, but we don't really know what they actually sold for.  They don't change the price to reflect lower offers being accepted.






Ruttangel said:


> Yes, I always take a chunk off to guess what they went for, but low point contracts are the ones most likely to get taken at the list prices.




Yes, this is why this forum is invaluable for all of us, especially those of us still learning the ropes!


----------



## Buzz2014

Ruttangel said:


> Such a difficult question as they are pretty rare, around $150 wouldnt surprise me


Thanks! Found one at $149 but stripped.


----------



## Ruttangel

Buzz2014 said:


> Thanks! Found one at $149 but stripped.


So stripped is 20 years of 25pts and loaded could be up to 23 years. However, you would likely pay dues on 2020 and definitely on 2021

You just to run the numbers through your supercomputer to see if it works for you


----------



## CastAStone

Buzz2014 said:


> Thanks! Found one at $149 but stripped.


If you buy direct, after closing costs you’d pay about $1000 more and get 2020 and 2021 points (and depending on your UY perhaps 2019 points). I value 2019 2020 and 2021 points enough that to me direct is a better value than resale at $149 if the resale contract is completely stripped and you have an Oct or Dec UY (and it’s a push with any other UY)


----------



## Ruttangel

CastAStone said:


> If you buy direct, after closing costs you’d pay about $1000 more and get 2020 and 2021 points (and depending on your UY perhaps 2019 points). I value 2019 2020 and 2021 points enough that to me direct is a better value than resale at $149 if the resale contract is completely stripped and you have an Oct or Dec UY (and it’s a push with any other UY)


I think you need to be an existing direct member to buy 25pts


----------



## zavandor

dvc lover 1970 said:


> I agree RR is beautiful, but indo not need nor want more than 100 points there as we are already at around 1000. If the incentives were for 100 points I would probably have purchased there to have utilized every other year for a 1 bedroom. If booking 1 and 2 beds there should not be a problem. My question is 10 years down the road where maybe 50 percent is now resale - I remeber a survey somewhere that said on average most keep their dvc 10 years- what will happen to the resale buyers if they cannot book other resorts and are closed out of RR. I think this will affect studios the most. Direct buyers will be able to book anywhere. I am not certain dvc can implement that policy in the legacy resorts because of the overpriced and high point cabins and bungalows at CCV and poly. RR does not have those thank goodness



Someone analyzed the contracts on the OCC website and found out that on average 1% of contracts of a sold out resort get purchased by a resale owner every year.
It was approximated, because he analyzed just the number of contracts and who were the sellers and the buyers (to exclude contracts taken back by Disney), but didn't take into account the actual contract sizes (it would be impossible, one would have to open every contract on the OCC website). So if for example larger contracts are resold more often smaller contracts, the actual number might be higher.
Anyway, the belief of 10 years average ownership, I think originated by a comment by a resale agent. He said that of  the contracts that are sold, on average the owers kept them for 10 years. But there are contracts that are never sold so that statistic is not a global number. 1% is the best approximation we have.


----------



## Alex Thomas

What is a good deal on 160 point Animal Kingdom resale contract?


----------



## sethschroeder

Alex Thomas said:


> What is a good deal on 160 point Animal Kingdom resale contract?



AKV is crazy these days as it seems to keep slowly going up.

I personally would want it sub $100 but you probably are paying like $105-$110 at this point.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Alex Thomas said:


> What is a good deal on 160 point Animal Kingdom resale contract?


I agree with sethschroeder.  I would try to get AK for $100 (or less), $105 would be a ceiling for me.  AK MF are slightly high by the way.


----------



## Aussie RJ

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-august-2020/
These prices look a little high for my comfort. Perhaps this broker is moving many small contracts? ...$142 for BLT, $130 for BWV. Things that make you go hmmmm.


----------



## Eldon32

Aussie RJ said:


> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-august-2020/
> These prices look a little high for my comfort. Perhaps this broker is moving many small contracts? ...$142 for BLT, $130 for BWV. Things that make you go hmmmm.



Most of their contracts all indicate buyer is paying 2020 dues; which could explain the point premium.


----------



## Lorana

Aussie RJ said:


> These prices look a little high for my comfort. Perhaps this broker is moving many small contracts? ...$142 for BLT, $130 for BWV. Things that make you go hmmmm.


They also tend to keep prices higher by not presenting lower offers to sellers.


----------



## Aussie RJ

Eldon32 said:


> Most of their contracts all indicate buyer is paying 2020 dues; which could explain the point premium.


They certainly don't appear to match the ROFR thread. BLT looks like low $130's, BWV around $112.


----------



## poofyo101

Aussie RJ said:


> They certainly don't appear to match the ROFR thread. BLT looks like low $130's, BWV around $112.


the prices on the ROFR thread honestly are not that accurate as some have dues paid, some have closing cost paid etc. Really need to make it true PPP to make it a bit more accurate. Also the ROFR thread usually will always have better deals in general on it as we this community should be more "savvy" with DVC pricing. IMO


----------



## SL6827

sethschroeder said:


> AKV is crazy these days as it seems to keep slowly going up.
> 
> I personally would want it sub $100 but you probably are paying like $105-$110 at this point.


What is it with AKVs?  Why such increase in demand?


----------



## Eldon32

poofyo101 said:


> the prices on the ROFR thread honestly are not that accurate as some have dues paid, some have closing cost paid etc. Really need to make it true PPP to make it a bit more accurate. Also the ROFR thread usually will always have better deals in general on it as we this community should be more "savvy" with DVC pricing. IMO




You're right, like this one. I'm pretty sure the buyer would have paid dues on at least 160 of the 2020 points for this one; so normalized it would be $101.42 - still a great deal to get 2018/2019 points. Maybe @sgserenity could key us in  


pangyal said:


> @sgserenity ---$93.75-$15613.60-160-AKV-Dec-0/18, 123/19, 320/20, 160/21- sent 7/18, passed 8/25



@BigThunderMike paid a bit more, I would say it's a wash on if 2020 dues were paid by the buyer or not - but I'd think 2019 dues were paid by the seller.


BigThunderMike said:


> Passed!
> 
> BigThunderMike---$115-$20232-160-AKV-Oct-0/18, 0/19, 228/20, 160/21- sent 7/17, passed 8/25
> 
> We weren't too worried since our price per point was a little higher than most for AKV right now, but are happy to see it finally go through. For what it's worth I talked to our agent at DVC Resale Market and they said they received a big batch today around 10:30 (MDT) and that they are working through them and sending out emails.
> 
> Best of luck everyone!



@to be tink got a really good deal; they posted later it was from Fidelity so I think the buyer likely paid the 150 points of dues.


to be tink said:


> Hi I have just passed ROFR and thought I would move over here to this thread.  Is there some type of information generator I should use to post all my contract info?
> ToBeTink---$100-$17777-160-AKV-Aug-74/19, 150/20, 160/21, 160/22- sent 7/8, passed 8/24



I've been looking at AKL so I posted those exclusively. I tagged the people so maybe they will let us know


----------



## sethschroeder

SL6827 said:


> What is it with AKVs?  Why such increase in demand?



There was some tracking showing less supply actually in comparison to the rest of resale (in comparison to the recent months that was). Think it has to do with it being the "best" of the SAP resorts.


----------



## Eldon32

SL6827 said:


> What is it with AKVs?  Why such increase in demand?



I started looking because I wanted something to look forward to and have been researching DVC for two years only to see both DVC and cash prices increase, and we went there for our honeymoon. We tried other resorts but...they didn't do it for us. It's also a low barrier to entry, even if the dues are a bit higher. 

What will be interesting to see as we get closer to Dec when the dues bills come out for next year, as well as learn more about Disney's plan, and the general economic environment - what will happen? In my mind there is a push pull:

Prices will go up:
* People have been stuck in their houses and hopefully things get more under-control in Q4 of next year
* Stimulus money is burning a hole in some pockets

Prices will go down:
* Some people will be unable to afford their dues, or Disney in general
* Some will be unable to rent points, either because of scarce availability, flood of available points for rent, or borrowing restrictions


----------



## Sandisw

Aussie RJ said:


> They certainly don't appear to match the ROFR thread. BLT looks like low $130's, BWV around $112.


 
This thread is a very small sample of what is being sold.


----------



## Brianstl

Until the past few months this thread has normally more closely tracked that site’s prices.  There are more savvy buyers here, but I don’t know if that really explains such a large spread at some resorts.  It doesn’t matter how savvy I am as a buyer if someone else is offering more money.


----------



## Dean

Let me point out that dues are paid on a Calendar Year basis, not a Use Year.  Thus one is ALMOST ALWAYS overpaying on the dues for a resale unless they're buying early in the year and or getting both this years points and a lot of banked points.  And clearly the "you get the points you pay the dues" is an incorrect position.


----------



## sgserenity

Eldon32 said:


> You're right, like this one. I'm pretty sure the buyer would have paid dues on at least 160 of the 2020 points for this one; so normalized it would be $101.42 - still a great deal to get 2018/2019 points. Maybe @sgserenity could key us in
> 
> 
> @BigThunderMike paid a bit more, I would say it's a wash on if 2020 dues were paid by the buyer or not - but I'd think 2019 dues were paid by the seller.
> 
> 
> @to be tink got a really good deal; they posted later it was from Fidelity so I think the buyer likely paid the 150 points of dues.
> 
> 
> I've been looking at AKL so I posted those exclusively. I tagged the people so maybe they will let us know


 For the 160 points we paid 93.75/15000$. Seller paid dues on the 123 points of 2018 and 160 points of 2019/ we split the 2020 dues 50/50 with the seller.


----------



## Eldon32

Great deal, congrats!


----------



## RaymOOOnd

I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp. 
Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).

AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).


----------



## Brianstl

RaymOOOnd said:


> I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp.
> Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).
> 
> AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).


Real estate is all about location. BWV and BCV are located where you can walk to two parks .  At AKV you have to take a bus to get to any park.  That location will always weigh down on AKV’s price.


----------



## sethschroeder

RaymOOOnd said:


> BWV or BCV



Which sit attached to Epcot and within walking distance of HS (both larger draws than AK for average fan). Epcot also has a huge variety of food and festivals which is a large draw to have easy access to going to WDW for 20+ years.



RaymOOOnd said:


> advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).



They are not building on transportation for over 10+ years to AKV and if they do you are talking about a 45-60 mins at least to get to HS or EPCOT (depending where it dumps out first).

AK has to get a refurb/redo in the Dino area first because it once again will be squarely dead last in attendance with HS and Epcot getting all the new rides and refurbs.

Also any skyliner system is going to be built primarily for the benefit of Coronado and All Stars. They might not even continue the line to AKL/AKV since there is little incentive for them to do so. There is a huge difference as well between building a very "cheap" walkway to VGF and MK vs a skyliner.

Also like SSR I don't think you actually want the skyliner to come to AKV because I can see a large increase in MFs as Disney is not going to build the skyliner for free and you just pay upkeep.



Brianstl said:


> Real estate is all about location.



Yup and their big issue is that Disney is never going to invest enough in busses to AKV to really make it a superb service. If they ramped up busses so they had one going every 10 mins it would drastically improve the resort. Lets not forget how spread out the resort is and zero quick service in the DVC building.

Love the resort will stay there again for a couple nights when we go to AK or possibly get in to Club Level.


----------



## Dean

RaymOOOnd said:


> I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp.
> Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).
> 
> AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).


Doubtful, it's the furthest out for everything but AK and there's no direct access even then.  It's also arguably less deluxe than BCV, BWV, BLT, Poly, Riviera and VGF.  Same for WL other than it's not quite as far out.  It does have the concierge and value rooms but given their availability, I doubt that'll have much effect.  I'm actually surprised it's doing as well as it is in price right now.


----------



## CaliAdventurer

Eldon32 said:


> I started looking because I wanted something to look forward to and have been researching DVC for two years only to see both DVC and cash prices increase, and we went there for our honeymoon. We tried other resorts but...they didn't do it for us. It's also a low barrier to entry, even if the dues are a bit higher.
> 
> What will be interesting to see as we get closer to Dec when the dues bills come out for next year, as well as learn more about Disney's plan, and the general economic environment - what will happen? In my mind there is a push pull:
> 
> Prices will go up:
> * People have been stuck in their houses and hopefully things get more under-control in Q4 of next year
> * Stimulus money is burning a hole in some pockets
> 
> Prices will go down:
> * Some people will be unable to afford their dues, or Disney in general
> * Some will be unable to rent points, either because of scarce availability, flood of available points for rent, or borrowing restrictions



If I had a dime for every time someone regretted waiting for the end of the year for prices to go down...  It only takes one message from DVC changing benefits or for a vaccine to come etc.


----------



## Aussie RJ

RaymOOOnd said:


> advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).


I hope I’m wrong, but given Covid, I can’t see any investment in transport options for a long time. Nor should we contemplate updates to Dinoland at AK. Given there is no proven medical answer to this pandemic, public companies will hoard cash and limit spending for a long time to come.


----------



## sethschroeder

Aussie RJ said:


> public companies will hoard cash and limit spending for a long time to come.



World will have moved on by January 2022. It will either be a usable vaccine has been pushed out or the risk will be there and testing will be prevalent in all these locations with fairly instant turn around.

I do think though transportation build out is on hold for a long time but updates for AK are likely lined up for when Epcot/MK are completed. Now the AK updates could be delayed but they will likely be the first new project outside of building/converting a new DVC resort.


----------



## gisele2

So....where do you think the resale  price are headed?


----------



## CastAStone

RaymOOOnd said:


> It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices


Total Number of points correlates extremely strongly to resale price. Even moreso if you think of WL as 1 resort.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> They are not building on transportation for over 10+ years to AKV and if they do you are talking about a 45-60 mins at least to get to HS or EPCOT (depending where it dumps out first).





sethschroeder said:


> Also any skyliner system is going to be built primarily for the benefit of Coronado and All Stars. They might not even continue the line to AKL/AKV since there is little incentive for them to do so. There is a huge difference as well between building a very "cheap" walkway to VGF and MK vs a skyliner.


Maybe! When you speculate you may want to notate that. Disney surprises us all the time, good and bad.


----------



## Aussie RJ

sethschroeder said:


> World will have moved on by January 2022


Hopefully sooner. But let’s put that into perspective. If Disney continues to run its parks at minimum attendance for the next 16 months... in economic terms I’m sure that’s a huge loss of revenue against forecast. Disney has shareholders to answer to. Park investment will be very low.


----------



## sethschroeder

Aussie RJ said:


> Hopefully sooner. But let’s put that into perspective. If Disney continues to run its parks at minimum attendance for the next 16 months... in economic terms I’m sure that’s a huge loss of revenue against forecast. Disney has shareholders to answer to. Park investment will be very low.



Could say Park investment might be higher to draw people back after the storm has passed as well because parks make up a large portion of their profit/revenue.


----------



## davidl81

Dean said:


> Doubtful, it's the furthest out for everything but AK and there's no direct access even then.  It's also arguably less deluxe than BCV, BWV, BLT, Poly, Riviera and VGF.  Same for WL other than it's not quite as far out.  It does have the concierge and value rooms but given their availability, I doubt that'll have much effect.  I'm actually surprised it's doing as well as it is in price right now.


I think distance definitely hurts AKV, but overall I find it a more deluxe resort than BCV and BWV (I love those resorts personally but only because of the location).  I think Poly/BLT/AKV are on par with each other resort wise with two of them being monorail resorts which outweighs the animals in the savanna.


----------



## Dean

sethschroeder said:


> World will have moved on by January 2022. It will either be a usable vaccine has been pushed out or the risk will be there and testing will be prevalent in all these locations with fairly instant turn around.
> 
> I do think though transportation build out is on hold for a long time but updates for AK are likely lined up for when Epcot/MK are completed. Now the AK updates could be delayed but they will likely be the first new project outside of building/converting a new DVC resort.


Without a vaccine I doubt it'll be that fast, that's about right with a good vaccine available starting by the first of 2021.  Testing won't help that much given the infectivity.  With no workable vaccine it's likely that over half the world's population will eventually be infected, more for industrialized nations.


----------



## sethschroeder

Dean said:


> Without a vaccine I doubt it'll be that fast, that's about right with a good vaccine available starting by the first of 2021.  Testing won't help that much given the infectivity.  With no workable vaccine it's likely that over half the world's population will eventually be infected, more for industrialized nations.



I give it til next summer before people are pushing the envelope further and willing to be more "risky" on their own. There could be no vaccine at all and I am sticking with 2022 as either having real solutions that are workable or people pushing forward.

As far as testing its getting better daily and there are more options available for contact tracing as well since phone apps and Apple/Google have started to implement possible solutions and put it in the dev tools.

Masks still possible in 2022? Sure I still think there will be some protections in place. You will see more well informed and original cautious individuals choosing to move forward and just taking precautions by the 24 months mark.

Anyways I think all of this is why we still will see a dip in resale values but could start to rebound any losses by end of next year as people look to 2022 a their first major trip since COVID started, plus Disney likely has some very extended 50th plans in my opinion.


----------



## Dean

davidl81 said:


> I think distance definitely hurts AKV, but overall I find it a more deluxe resort than BCV and BWV (I love those resorts personally but only because of the location).  I think Poly/BLT/AKV are on par with each other resort wise with two of them being monorail resorts which outweighs the animals in the savanna.


Price for similar type rooms is likely the best measure of demand.  Historically Disney themselves and the Unofficial Guide has seen WL & AKL as of a lower group than the others mentioned on the hotel side.  At one time the Unofficial Guide specifically made the statement that AK and WL were less Deluxe though they later removed that wording.  If you go back early on with DVC the put WL and I believe AKL in a separate and lower category than the other deluxe's.


----------



## Dean

sethschroeder said:


> I give it til next summer before people are pushing the envelope further and willing to be more "risky" on their own. There could be no vaccine at all and I am sticking with 2022 as either having real solutions that are workable or people pushing forward.
> 
> As far as testing its getting better daily and there are more options available for contact tracing as well since phone apps and Apple/Google have started to implement possible solutions and put it in the dev tools.
> 
> Masks still possible in 2022? Sure I still think there will be some protections in place. You will see more well informed and original cautious individuals choosing to move forward and just taking precautions by the 24 months mark.
> 
> Anyways I think all of this is why we still will see a dip in resale values but could start to rebound any losses by end of next year as people look to 2022 a their first major trip since COVID started, plus Disney likely has some very extended 50th plans in my opinion.


It'll likely be this time next year before a vaccine program is in full swing to the masses if everything goes well with the vaccine trials.  And your cutoff of 16 months from now is about the best we can hope for if everything goes right with the vaccine. Even that assumes that roughly 80% of the people get vaccinated in that time frame which isn't looking likely.  Certainly most will either get infected or vaccinated eventually.  Testing is only a drop in the bucket as it is after the fact.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Dean said:


> Price for similar type rooms is likely the best measure of demand.  Historically Disney themselves and the Unofficial Guide has seen WL & AKL as of a lower group than the others mentioned on the hotel side.  At one time the Unofficial Guide specifically made the statement that AK and WL were less Deluxe though they later removed that wording.  If you go back early on with DVC the put WL and I believe AKL in a separate and lower category than the other deluxe's.


I have to say I find this debate on just how "deluxe" a resort is rather silly.  These tiers don't really mean much to folks outside this board, everyone values each resort differently for different reasons.  Some people might not consider a hotel/resort deluxe without a spa if that's what they value, for instance.  Part of the magic is that many of these resorts have many unique offerings, which defies easy categorization.  

Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.


----------



## Eldon32

CaliAdventurer said:


> If I had a dime for every time someone regretted waiting for the end of the year for prices to go down... It only takes one message from DVC changing benefits or for a vaccine to come etc.



Yeah. Does everyone think there will be a spike in prices during the summer next year if we have a decent vaccine?


----------



## Brianstl

Dean said:


> Price for similar type rooms is likely the best measure of demand.  Historically Disney themselves and the Unofficial Guide has seen WL & AKL as of a lower group than the others mentioned on the hotel side.  At one time the Unofficial Guide specifically made the statement that AK and WL were less Deluxe though they later removed that wording.  If you go back early on with DVC the put WL and I believe AKL in a separate and lower category than the other deluxe's.


The price for WL and AK  has been less historically because of their location.  It has nothing to with any so called level of “deluxe”.


----------



## Ruttangel

gisele2 said:


> So....where do you think the resale  price are headed?


A few thoughts here
1. So, Disney is technically raising direct pricing soon if the incentives are less enticing. That should knock on to a small increase in resales, even if there is a lag.

2. Rumours of new ‘blue card benefits’ The great unknown is if Disney can create a perk so good that direct purchasing has greater benefit to resale.
Lets assume 60% of DVC buyers never heard of resale and buy direct.
20% are first time DVC buyers using resale, 20% existing member adding on with resale. How does Disney move that 20% first timer resalers to direct? It’s tried with RIV but it just means RIV resale is damaged and not much else

3. Room pricing, if we see 50% discounts then DVC direct and resale are less attractive and demand for both falls and resale prices drop.

4. Global economy, people are desperate for the nostalgia of happier times, I believe there is pent up demand for WDW and DVC once vaccine available. I also think SOME families have saved substantial sums of money during last 6 months, no commuting, no holidays, no wining and dining etc...If normality is from Oct 2021 then we could see a surge of sales in that quarter.

5. Unsustainable 2042 direct pricing, you would think $235 a point at BCV can’t continue to be higher than a 2060+ property in another 5 years time

6. Second wave of virus, we are already seeing spikes in younger generation, which will pass back on to older generation in next 4-6 weeks, increasing hospitalisations and possible increase in lockdown measures, will the measures be more severe if Florida has a new governor in Jan 2021, could the parks even be closed over Christmas and New Year?

7. ROFR, if staff are furloughed again or waitlists dry up then ROFR stops and bargains like @gisele2 $100 BLT become possible again

In summary I would say it’s a bit of crystal ball exercise. I would guess a 5% reduction on contract values in early 2021 but they may not come with as many loaded/unused points as they do now, so if there is good loaded deal then go for it, especially if 2020 dues are covered.

Happy shopping


----------



## Ruttangel

AKV is the only resort where my 2 children actually burst with joy when I showed them where we were staying.

I think some people on these Boards need to see that magic in Children’s eyes again.

To add: it’s probably the best resort if you are doing a resort only stay


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Ruttangel said:


> AKV is the only resort where my 2 children actually burst with joy when I showed them where we were staying.
> 
> I think some people on these Boards need to see that magic in Children’s eyes again.
> 
> To add: it’s probably the best resort if you are doing a resort only stay


It is actually my kids’ least favorite resort.  One likes BWV, one likes WL, one likes BLT.  The one thing they agree on is no more AKL.


----------



## Ruttangel

we"reofftoneverland said:


> It is actually my kids’ least favorite resort.  One likes BWV, one likes WL, one likes BLT.  The one thing they agree on is no more AKL.


Disney is trying to offer something for everyone, they all have drawbacks.
I have no interest in WL, probably because I’m not North American.
BLT just looks like a concrete block and Californian Grill was terrible last time we went.
I do however, love the Boardwalk area and have a contract in ROFR for there.


----------



## inkedupmomma

Ruttangel said:


> AKV is the only resort where my 2 children actually burst with joy when I showed them where we were staying.
> 
> I think some people on these Boards need to see that magic in Children’s eyes again.
> 
> To add: it’s probably the best resort if you are doing a resort only stay




Seriously Where else is anyone staying that has giraffes and zebra right outside? If you cant find magic in that, idk how to help ya.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Ruttangel said:


> Disney is trying to offer something for everyone, they all have drawbacks.
> I have no interest in WL, probably because I’m not North American.
> BLT just looks like a concrete block and Californian Grill was terrible last time we went.
> I do however, love the Boardwalk area and have a contract in ROFR for there.


I like AKL a lot!  I was just saying that unfortunately my kids do not.  I do like that there are options for everyone.


----------



## Dean

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> I have to say I find this debate on just how "deluxe" a resort is rather silly.  These tiers don't really mean much to folks outside this board, everyone values each resort differently for different reasons.  Some people might not consider a hotel/resort deluxe without a spa if that's what they value, for instance.  Part of the magic is that many of these resorts have many unique offerings, which defies easy categorization.
> 
> Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.


Maybe but the truth is it has lower demand than some of the other locations which was the point of the discussion.  I like it also but I like all of the resorts for one reason or another but the way it's viewed in general by the masses will affect it's price long term.


----------



## TinkB278

Some of the prices I see for AKV right now just literally make me LOL. Over $120/point for 200-400 point contracts??


----------



## CastAStone

Ruttangel said:


> 5. Unsustainable 2042 direct pricing, you would think $235 a point at BCV can’t continue to be higher than a 2060+ property in another 5 years time


I wouldn't call it unsustainable as much as the value of the resort is being consumed more aggressively.

12 months from now Riviera will have consumed 2% of its remaining points, Saratoga Springs 3%, and BCV 5%. 

If you discount that for Time Value of Money at 6.5%, it's even starker: Riviera loses 0.25% of it's value, SSR 0.8%, and BCV 2.2% - 9 times as much as Riviera. So the 2042 resorts will continue to uncouple vs the others (as they have been).


----------



## sethschroeder

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.



Someone had outlined there might be less volume of contracts being listed on resale in comparison to other resorts. I haven't tracked any data so I can't say thats accurate or not. AKV was also bought back fairly often on one of the resale sites as well per their blogs.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-august-20-report/


----------



## poofyo101

I think AKV is on the rise because it was undervalued before. AKV>SSR>OKW IMO.


----------



## sethschroeder

poofyo101 said:


> I think AKV is on the rise because it was undervalued before. AKV>SSR>OKW IMO.



OKW $80 -> SSR $95 -> AKV $xxx.xx

Right now we are talking about a $20/point premium for AKV for another $10-$15 you can get in to MK resorts or you actually can save money upfront by getting BWV with a shorter length of time.


----------



## TinkB278

sethschroeder said:


> OKW $80 -> SSR $95 -> AKV $xxx.xx
> 
> Right now we are talking about a $20/point premium for AKV for another $10-$15 you can get in to MK resorts or you actually can save money upfront by getting BWV with a shorter length of time.


This is what I keep thinking about. For not much more with the way AKV is priced right now I could get an MK resort with a longer contract.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

TinkB278 said:


> This is what I keep thinking about. For not much more with the way AKV is priced right now I could get an MK resort with a longer contract.


Exactly! I love the decor at AKV but availability is easier there, I would rather spend a bit more at MK or less at SSR


----------



## PaulW08

sethschroeder said:


> OKW $80 -> SSR $95 -> AKV $xxx.xx
> 
> Right now we are talking about a $20/point premium for AKV for another $10-$15 you can get in to MK resorts or you actually can save money upfront by getting BWV with a shorter length of time.



I think this is pretty spot on for my own personal evaluation. I was originally shopping for a SSR at $95 as my high end, and settled on an AKV $100. Seller split MF dues in 2020 so that helped as well. I think the $5 premium is justified for the extra years and uniqueness of the resort.


----------



## CastAStone

I would call the current AKV pricing "unsustainable". At least relative to the other resorts. 

One thing I've learned this summer is that the brokers at DVC Resale Market have a lot of pricing power when they dedicate themselves to a cause and can move the market singlehandedly when the conditions allow for it. That's what happened here IMO - supply got tight and DVCRM decided that the sellers should take pricing and flexed to make it so. 

With supply loosening, prices will settle. Eventually.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

CastAStone said:


> With supply loosening, prices will settle. Eventually.



This is what I'm betting on.  If I'm wrong and prices go higher we can always buy elsewhere.  Lot's of great DVC resorts to choose from.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

sethschroeder said:


> OKW $80 -> SSR $95 -> AKV $xxx.xx
> 
> Right now we are talking about a $20/point premium for AKV for another $10-$15 you can get in to MK resorts or you actually can save money upfront by getting BWV with a shorter length of time.


I wonder how many buyers look at this kind of math vs just decide a resort they like and buy in.  All of the resorts are cheaper per night buying DVC than on the hotel side so if someone has a narrow focus, it still could make sense to pay $130 point for AKV.

The one that always baffles me is the time to expiration though.  There are a few resorts that have multiple expiration dates available (OKW, BRV vs CCV) and in every case, the cost for a longer contract isn't much relative to the extra years you get.


----------



## Dean

Starport Seven-Five said:


> I wonder how many buyers look at this kind of math vs just decide a resort they like and buy in.  All of the resorts are cheaper per night buying DVC than on the hotel side so if someone has a narrow focus, it still could make sense to pay $130 point for AKV.
> 
> The one that always baffles me is the time to expiration though.  There are a few resorts that have multiple expiration dates available (OKW, BRV vs CCV) and in every case, the cost for a longer contract isn't much relative to the extra years you get.


The value on the back side for a years points is much less than a year's points that are more current.  When OKW was extended the cost was $15 ($25 with discount) but the resale value was around $8 per point.


----------



## CastAStone

Starport Seven-Five said:


> I wonder how many buyers look at this kind of math vs just decide a resort they like and buy in.  All of the resorts are cheaper per night buying DVC than on the hotel side so if someone has a narrow focus, it still could make sense to pay $130 point for AKV.
> 
> The one that always baffles me is the time to expiration though.  There are a few resorts that have multiple expiration dates available (OKW, BRV vs CCV) and in every case, the cost for a longer contract isn't much relative to the extra years you get.


I would say that CCV is significantly more expensive relative to the years left than BRV.

Each year after the current one is worth 6.5% less than the year before it to me because that’s what I could make on average over time (after inflation) by investing the money instead.

CCV has 47 years left so I use the geometric progression formula: (1-((1-0.065)^47))/.065=14.7, meaning I should value CCV at 14.7 times what I value 1 years stay at.

BRV has 21 years left, so (1-((1-0.065)^21))/.065=11.6, meaning I should value BRV at 11.6 times what I value 1 year at. 14.7/11.6=1.27; so if you otherwise value BRV and CCV equally, with BRV at $105 (per DVCRM blog), CCV would be worth $133. Instead it’s averaging $145.

In other words, if nothing changes, you should be able to buy Boulder Ridge now, put the money you save versus Copper Creek into an S&P 500 tracking fund, and buy Copper Creek in 2041 with those savings AND have $6200 left over.

Obviously there’s one million variables that will change the math between now and 2041, but as it sits in front of us today, that’s the landscape. BRV is prices below CCV.


----------



## sethschroeder

Starport Seven-Five said:


> I wonder how many buyers look at this kind of math vs just decide a resort they like and buy in



I would say for resale its a little more often and if they are buying AKV its more often than something like BLT, VGF, VGC.

AKV is viewed as a cheaper alternative so I would suspect at least some napkin math. SSR and OKW get a really bad wrap though by some so AKV might be the lowest "acceptable" resort.


----------



## wreing

Starport Seven-Five said:


> The one that always baffles me is the time to expiration though. There are a few resorts that have multiple expiration dates available (OKW, BRV vs CCV) and in every case, the cost for a longer contract isn't much relative to the extra years you get.



The thing is that you put so much money in at the beginning the additional value at the end is very small.  I have a google sheet I'll try and share here, that you can copy and use to play with a Discounted Cash Flow Calculation.

The last 10 years are responsible for about $6 worth of DCF value, compared to the first 10 which are worth almost $70.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> In other words, if nothing changes, you should be able to buy Boulder Ridge now, put the money you save versus Copper Creek into an S&P 500 tracking fund, and buy Copper Creek in 2041 with those savings AND have $6200 left over.
> 
> Obviously there’s one million variables that will change the math between now and 2041, but as it sits in front of us today, that’s the landscape. BRV is prices below CCV.



This is the part that originally was in your mindset that I changed before I bought RIV. I was thinking originally I had BWV, I would use it for 20 years and then buy-in to a new resort. I flipped on that mindset liking the opportunity to just lock in now for a lifetime as opposed to worry about how much Disney might gouge in 2042.

What I would be interested in is seeing what it looks like if you took opening day prices with a requirement for 1 week in October in a Studio and 2BR in 2020 dollars. I took a stab at it but might be wrong. This also doesn't account for incentives that can be from 10-20% discount for a contract of these sizes.

Studio

ResortOpening Day PricePoint RequirementTotal Cost (Then)2020 PriceTotal Cost (Now)OKW - 1991$5185$4335$98.48$8370.80BWV - 1996$62.7590$5647.50$105.63$9506.70BLT - 2008$112116$12992$137.91$15997.56VGF - 2013$145132$19140$163.66$21603.12RIV - 2020$188123$23124$190.81$23469.63

2BR

ResortOpening Day PricePoint RequirementTotal Cost (Then)2020 PriceTotal Cost (Now)OKW - 1991$51253$12903$98.48$24915.44BWV - 1996$62.75299$18762.25$105.63$31583.37BLT - 2008$112338$37856$137.91$46613.58VGF - 2013$160394$63040$163.66$64482.04RIV - 2020$188345$64860$190.81$65829.45


----------



## CarolynFH

sethschroeder said:


> This is the part that originally was in your mindset that I changed before I bought RIV. I was thinking originally I had BWV, I would use it for 20 years and then buy-in to a new resort. I flipped on that mindset liking the opportunity to just lock in now for a lifetime as opposed to worry about how much Disney might gouge in 2042.
> 
> What I would be interested in is seeing what it looks like if you took opening day prices with a requirement for 1 week in October in a Studio and 2BR in 2020 dollars. I took a stab at it but might be wrong. This also doesn't account for incentives that can be from 10-20% discount for a contract of these sizes.
> 
> Studio
> 
> ResortOpening Day PricePoint RequirementTotal Cost (Then)2020 PriceTotal Cost (Now)OKW - 1991$5185$4335$98.48$8370.80BWV - 1996$62.7590$5647.50$105.63$9506.70BLT - 2008$112116$12992$137.91$15997.56VGF - 2013$145132$19140$163.66$21603.12RIV - 2020$188123$23124$190.81$23469.63
> 
> 2BR
> 
> ResortOpening Day PricePoint RequirementTotal Cost (Then)2020 PriceTotal Cost (Now)OKW - 1991$51253$12903$98.48$24915.44BWV - 1996$62.75299$18762.25$105.63$31583.37BLT - 2008$112338$37856$137.91$46613.58VGF - 2013$160394$63040$163.66$64482.04RIV - 2020$188345$64860$190.81$65829.45


Thanks for this chart - it shows me that what we paid for our BWV points in 1997 is roughly what the resale cost for them is today, so resale price today roughly follows inflation.  Of course today's direct price is way higher than inflation.


----------



## CastAStone

sethschroeder said:


> This is the part that originally was in your mindset that I changed before I bought RIV. I was thinking originally I had BWV, I would use it for 20 years and then buy-in to a new resort. I flipped on that mindset liking the opportunity to just lock in now for a lifetime as opposed to worry about how much Disney might gouge in 2042.
> 
> What I would be interested in is seeing what it looks like if you took opening day prices with a requirement for 1 week in October in a Studio and 2BR in 2020 dollars. I took a stab at it but might be wrong. This also doesn't account for incentives that can be from 10-20% discount for a contract of these sizes.
> 
> Studio
> 
> ResortOpening Day PricePoint RequirementTotal Cost (Then)2020 PriceTotal Cost (Now)OKW - 1991$5185$4335$98.48$8370.80BWV - 1996$62.7590$5647.50$105.63$9506.70BLT - 2008$112116$12992$137.91$15997.56VGF - 2013$145132$19140$163.66$21603.12RIV - 2020$188123$23124$190.81$23469.63
> 
> 2BR
> 
> ResortOpening Day PricePoint RequirementTotal Cost (Then)2020 PriceTotal Cost (Now)OKW - 1991$51253$12903$98.48$24915.44BWV - 1996$62.75299$18762.25$105.63$31583.37BLT - 2008$112338$37856$137.91$46613.58VGF - 2013$160394$63040$163.66$64482.04RIV - 2020$188345$64860$190.81$65829.45


You meet my two part test for buying Riviera because you love the resort, or at least love the access to Epcot, and you seem quite certain you will own for more than 20 years.

I have trouble seeing how pricing could continue at the pace we saw previously, in fact, it's already slowed considerable in the past few years:


But all that said it is extremely hard to crystal ball what's ahead, but to me that just makes me more certain that I shouldn't be looking more than 10ish years down the road when making this purchase.


----------



## sethschroeder

CastAStone said:


> But all that said it is extremely hard to crystal ball what's ahead, but to me that just makes me more certain that I shouldn't be looking more than 10ish years down the road when making this purchase.



Yup I think that comes out to how risk adverse someone might be. I would also say though its very unlikely I would take the money I would have paid for RIV and just invested it, it would have went to some other life benefit like a house addition or something so I wouldn't have that extra money left over.

About the chart seems its peaks and valleys on the 5 year averages. Possibly Disneyland Villas gets us another peak on the year to year and even has an increase as it gets closer to selling out (if it sells as quickly as they say it will).


----------



## MICKIMINI

CastAStone said:


> In other words, if nothing changes, you should be able to buy Boulder Ridge now, put the money you save versus Copper Creek into an S&P 500 tracking fund, and buy Copper Creek in 2041 with those savings AND have $6200 left over.


I love it!  I'll be 80+ at that time so I spent my "savings" from the two BRV's I bought this summer by buying two OKW contracts today LOL!  You can't take it with you!


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

CastAStone said:


> I would say that CCV is significantly more expensive relative to the years left than BRV.
> 
> Each year after the current one is worth 6.5% less than the year before it to me because that’s what I could make on average over time (after inflation) by investing the money instead.
> 
> CCV has 47 years left so I use the geometric progression formula: (1-((1-0.065)^47))/.065=14.7, meaning I should value CCV at 14.7 times what I value 1 years stay at.
> 
> BRV has 21 years left, so (1-((1-0.065)^21))/.065=11.6, meaning I should value BRV at 11.6 times what I value 1 year at. 14.7/11.6=1.27; so if you otherwise value BRV and CCV equally, with BRV at $105 (per DVCRM blog), CCV would be worth $133. Instead it’s averaging $145.
> 
> In other words, if nothing changes, you should be able to buy Boulder Ridge now, put the money you save versus Copper Creek into an S&P 500 tracking fund, and buy Copper Creek in 2041 with those savings AND have $6200 left over.
> 
> Obviously there’s one million variables that will change the math between now and 2041, but as it sits in front of us today, that’s the landscape. BRV is prices below CCV.


Thanks for this.  I had never considered it this way for some reason and it makes complete sense.  I need to work on my spreadsheet some to adjust my perception a bit and not judge the 2042 resorts as harshly.

Agree on the last point as well that we have to make a lot of assumptions (both on returns and future resale values) but it's a good way to put context on the price differences in the different contract lengths.


----------



## sethschroeder

Starport Seven-Five said:


> Thanks for this.  I had never considered it this way for some reason and it makes complete sense.  I need to work on my spreadsheet some to adjust my perception a bit and not judge the 2042 resorts as harshly.
> 
> Agree on the last point as well that we have to make a lot of assumptions (both on returns and future resale values) but it's a good way to put context on the price differences in the different contract lengths.



One thing the graph didn't account for that I tried to in my fairly brief data is the cost of the point chart as well. It's not only the price per point but also the point chart that goes up over time so buyins are more and cheaper rooms will be harder to get at 7 months.


----------



## Eldon32

sethschroeder said:


> It's not only the price per point but also the point chart that goes up over time



What do you mean? Points can not be created or destroyed; and the total points needed for 100% occupancy in resort can't change - only be moved around. (Although, there are some shady rules around how they can move them between rooms/seasons that is up for interpretation).


----------



## Ruttangel

Eldon32 said:


> What do you mean? Points can not be created or destroyed; and the total points needed for 100% occupancy in resort can't change - only be moved around. (Although, there are some shady rules around how they can move them between rooms/seasons that is up for interpretation).


Not sure if he meant for new resorts?


----------



## Shelle88

Eldon32 said:


> What do you mean? Points can not be created or destroyed; and the total points needed for 100% occupancy in resort can't change - only be moved around. (Although, there are some shady rules around how they can move them between rooms/seasons that is up for interpretation).


Yes, total points in existing resorts must stay the same but, for new resorts, not only is the price per point more expensive but also the number of points needed is greater than the older resorts for the same room type.

100 points may buy you 9 nights in an OKW studio(96) but how many nights will 100 points get you at Riviera? The same 9 nights are 103 points in a tower studio but there's so few of these you'd be lucky to get one. A regular studio is 139 points so this needs including in your long term calculation too, as after 2042 you won't be able to stay at the lower point resorts. However, I'm not great at stats and I have no idea how to do that!!


----------



## CastAStone

I miss your updates @bookwormde hope everything is OK with you.


----------



## sethschroeder

Eldon32 said:


> What do you mean? Points can not be created or destroyed; and the total points needed for 100% occupancy in resort can't change - only be moved around. (Although, there are some shady rules around how they can move them between rooms/seasons that is up for interpretation).



When looking at buying X today or Y in 20 years. When you compare buying BWV today and then rebuying BWV in 2042 its not just price but also point charts that will be higher. If you try to do predictive math you need to account for this increase.



Ruttangel said:


> Not sure if he meant for new resorts?



Correct the line of reasoning we were exploring was buy a 2042 resort now and then rebuy it in 2042 as well in comparison to buying CCV/RIV.



Shelle88 said:


> Yes, total points in existing resorts must stay the same but, for new resorts, not only is the price per point more expensive but also the number of points needed is greater than the older resorts for the same room type.
> 
> 100 points may buy you 9 nights in an OKW studio(96) but how many nights will 100 points get you at Riviera? The same 9 nights are 103 points in a tower studio but there's so few of these you'd be lucky to get one. A regular studio is 139 points so this needs including in your long term calculation too, as after 2042 you won't be able to stay at the lower point resorts. However, I'm not great at stats and I have no idea how to do that!!



Correct 

I also did a little chart already showing it basically goes up over time. VGF is a little off the standard increase for points requirement but that is expected since VGF is the "flagship" so it will be slightly higher than all other resorts. You can somewhat track is though from OKW -> BWV -> BLT -> RIV on the increases both in price and in point requirements.


----------



## Sun_soakin

RaymOOOnd said:


> I find it funny when people are so surprised at AKV costing >$100pp.
> Personal bias alert, but I can't believe that it's not dramatically higher. It must be the sheer size of the resort weighing down on the prices because the place is easily one of the most impressive resorts at WDW (particularly when compared with BWV or BCV which look similar to something I'd be able to rent in Ocean City Maryland).
> 
> AKV would be my speculation choice, i.e. the one I could see skyrocketing in price down the line. If only because the prices are now so reasonable and it's easy to picture them advancing that Animal Kingdom theme / region moreso down the line (new transportation options, new buildings in the area etc).



Agreed! But, we are west coasters that like AK more than any of the other parks (so different from Anaheim).


----------



## inkedupmomma

Sun_soakin said:


> Agreed! But, we are west coasters that like AK more than any of the other parks (so different from Anaheim).


Double agreed! Best decision we ever made


----------



## dlavender

I don't own DVC, maybe one day, just wanted to say this is one of my favorite threads. Very informative. Thanks to all!


----------



## Pluto777

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> I have to say I find this debate on just how "deluxe" a resort is rather silly.  These tiers don't really mean much to folks outside this board, everyone values each resort differently for different reasons.  Some people might not consider a hotel/resort deluxe without a spa if that's what they value, for instance.  Part of the magic is that many of these resorts have many unique offerings, which defies easy categorization.
> 
> Also, none of this helps explain the original question of why AKV resale prices have been on the rise.


To me DVC value is all about ONE major thing - LOCATION.  I own at BLT and I hope soon at PVB also. Why? Because my vacation time with my family is PRECIOUS to me and simply too short for me to waste time on driving or taxis and traffic jams. I like to get to my resort and then, when I get to WDW simply RELAX without worries inside 'the bubble'. I want to be able to leave a park on a hot day, task a 7 minute monorail ride and be in my resort room or pool. One thing I have learned from the Corona mess, is that my vacation time with my family is precious and very limited.

Are there more remote resorts or even offsite hotels at better prices with more luxuries? Sure. DO I want to waste my time traveling back and forth to them? No. WDW for me is about ESCAPE from the 'real world'. I want to be in that bubble for a week or two, be able to go back and forth to the parks fast and spend the time relaxing with the people I love. We all have resorts that we like more than others; for me I like being as close to the center of the 'action' (the parks, monorail atmosphere etc) as possible. Thats why I bought and am an owner.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Pluto777 said:


> To me


^This^ was my point.

Also, I agree it's better to be closer and not spend more time traveling to the hotel. I value that as well. My post was about assigning "deluxe" tiers to these resorts as if those were agreed upon value judgements when they're not. People value things differently.


----------



## becauseimnew

I think we will finally start to see lower prices, I've seen more companies announce layoff this week  
So sad


----------



## Turn the Page

Pluto777 said:


> To me DVC value is all about ONE major thing - LOCATION.  I own at BLT and I hope soon at PVB also. Why? Because my vacation time with my family is PRECIOUS to me and simply too short for me to waste time on driving or taxis and traffic jams. I like to get to my resort and then, when I get to WDW simply RELAX without worries inside 'the bubble'. I want to be able to leave a park on a hot day, task a 7 minute monorail ride and be in my resort room or pool. One thing I have learned from the Corona mess, is that my vacation time with my family is precious and very limited.
> 
> Are there more remote resorts or even offsite hotels at better prices with more luxuries? Sure. DO I want to waste my time traveling back and forth to them? No. WDW for me is about ESCAPE from the 'real world'. I want to be in that bubble for a week or two, be able to go back and forth to the parks fast and spend the time relaxing with the people I love. We all have resorts that we like more than others; for me I like being as close to the center of the 'action' (the parks, monorail atmosphere etc) as possible. Thats why I bought and am an owner.



I really like how you put this.  We agree.  We never minded the buses much (except for the back up at park close, that stinks) but we loved the convenience of the Skyliner so much that DH flat out said he didn't care what the RIV theme was.  So long as it has the Skyliner access, a good pool for the kids, a convenient bar for him, and the ability to sleep 5 in a studio and 1 bedroom that is where we want to be.  

Are there better financial deals out there? Yep.  Do we care?  Nope.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Turn the Page said:


> I really like how you put this.  We agree.  We never minded the buses much (except for the back up at park close, that stinks) but we loved the convenience of the Skyliner so much that DH flat out said he didn't care what the RIV theme was.  So long as it has the Skyliner access, a good pool for the kids, a convenient bar for him, and the ability to sleep 5 in a studio and 1 bedroom that is where we want to be.
> 
> Are there better financial deals out there? Yep.  Do we care?  Nope.


How funny, our process was very similar.  We do like the resort theme (is it a strong as AKV, no, but it has a nice modern European flavor) but ultimately it was the spacious rooms AND the skyliner.  DH especially loves the skyliner, though he calls it the "skywalker"   

So yeah, value is in the eye of the beholder.


----------



## Turn the Page

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> How funny, our process was very similar.  We do like the resort theme (is it a strong as AKV, no, but it has a nice modern European flavor) but ultimately it was the spacious rooms AND the skyliner.  DH especially loves the skyliner, though he calls it the "skywalker"
> 
> So yeah, value is in the eye of the beholder.



Agreed. I can't say it is necessarily my favorite theme but it's fine.  Although, I will say I was not deterred from buying but.....unenthused by the theme and decor when I saw it in pictures.  I think the decor is much more blah in pictures than in person.  It is true that the lobby is less grand than WL or AKV but that never bothered me.  The grandness of the lobby has zero impact on my vacation.

I will say I had one minor gripe.  The grocery offerings in the resort store were extremely light which surprised me given it is a DVC resort.  We always get a grocery delivery so it isn't a big deal and if we do forget something the Skyliner makes it super easy to hop on over to BCV.  Their selection is much better.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Turn the Page said:


> Agreed. I can't say it is necessarily my favorite theme but it's fine.  Although, I will say I was not deterred from buying but.....unenthused by the theme and decor when I saw it in pictures.  I think the decor is much more blah in pictures than in person.  It is true that the lobby is less grand than WL or AKV but that never bothered me.  The grandness of the lobby has zero impact on my vacation.
> 
> I will say I had one minor gripe.  The grocery offerings in the resort store were extremely light which surprised me given it is a DVC resort.  We always get a grocery delivery so it isn't a big deal and if we do forget something the Skyliner makes it super easy to hop on over to BCV.  Their selection is much better.


Good to know about BCV!


----------



## RoseGold

All this mess has really shown to me the stability of SSR.  It never really varied that much over the past several years, through Covid, etc, as opposed to the swings we've seen at other resorts.  I'm still baffled why AKL spiked so high for Covid.  As long as SSR dues keep holding on rock solid, I'll continue to be an SSR SAP superfan.


----------



## linzjane88

RoseGold said:


> All this mess has really shown to me the stability of SSR.  It never really varied that much over the past several years, through Covid, etc, as opposed to the swings we've seen at other resorts.  I'm still baffled why AKL spiked so high for Covid.  As long as SSR dues keep holding on rock solid, I'll continue to be an SSR SAP superfan.


 
I am super excited to be staying at SSR for our trip in November. Its been our home resort for like 5 years and we've never stayed there yet! The SAP setup has been good to me.


----------



## Turn the Page

Oddly, I keep trying to show DS2 videos of Happily Ever After and the Tree of Life Awakenings and such on YouTube but he has no interest.  Won't watch any of that but he loves a walk through video of S'is Vous Plait of all things.  Watches it over and over again.  There aren't even any kids playing in it.  Just a short video.


----------



## Turn the Page

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> Good to know about BCV!



There are still limits though.  If you feel strongly about a particular product or brand it is best to bring it with you.  For example, you can get Helman's mayo but Miracle Whip is not available anywhere on property so if you must have Miracle Whip or will whine like a toddler (i'm looking at you mom) then plan accordingly.


----------



## RanDIZ

RoseGold said:


> All this mess has really shown to me the stability of SSR.  It never really varied that much over the past several years, through Covid, etc, as opposed to the swings we've seen at other resorts.  I'm still baffled why AKL spiked so high for Covid.  As long as SSR dues keep holding on rock solid, I'll continue to be an SSR SAP superfan.



Agreed. I couldn’t understand how much AKV shot up in price. I got in at $109 Jan pre-COVID and have seen contracts asking in the $140’s and selling in $130’s. I was tempted to sell and wait for another drop and get back in, but as a stock investor, timing the market is a failed strategy even for the best of the best. So I’ll just wait and see then feed my addonitis if it drops again.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Turn the Page said:


> There are still limits though.  If you feel strongly about a particular product or brand it is best to bring it with you.  For example, you can get Helman's mayo but Miracle Whip is not available anywhere on property so if you must have Miracle Whip or will whine like a toddler (i'm looking at you mom) then plan accordingly.


We're not too particular. Also, we usually have a car since we drive down from NC, so we can always go to Publix if delivery isn't an option.  But thanks!


----------



## limace

RanDIZ said:


> Agreed. I couldn’t understand how much AKV shot up in price. I got in at $109 Jan pre-COVID and have seen contracts asking in the $140’s and selling in $130’s. I was tempted to sell and wait for another drop and get back in, but as a stock investor, timing the market is a failed strategy even for the best of the best. So I’ll just wait and see then feed my addonitis if it drops again.


People are asking that much but contracts are passing ROFR in the low 90s in some cases, which is $10-$15 pp lower than what was passing in ROFR pre-Covid.


----------



## Lorana

Pluto777 said:


> WDW for me is about ESCAPE from the 'real world'. I want to be in that bubble for a week or two, be able to go back and forth to the parks fast and spend the time relaxing with the people I love.


Yes, this. So much this.  We wanted DVC not just to own a piece of the magic (though we also own Disney stock, so there's that too!*), but we want that escape.  Part of our love of Disney is love of that Disney bubble, and we always stay onsite for that reason.

I pretty much live my life to travel and to create vacation memories with the people I love, treating them as often as I can to make those moments happen.  When I was younger, I used to accrue vacation time, but as my work got more demanding, the more I realized how important that time together is, and now I make a point to always spend my vacation time with my family and friends, at Disney and other places around the world.

_*Our first wedding anniversary was long enough ago that they still printed Disney stocks, and since the first anniversary is "paper" as the gift, that's what I got my husband - Disney stock, framed, with "So You'll Always Have a Piece of the Magic" engraved on it._


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Lorana said:


> _*Our first wedding anniversary was long enough ago that they still printed Disney stocks, and since the first anniversary is "paper" as the gift, that's what I got my husband - Disney stock, framed, with "So You'll Always Have a Piece of the Magic" engraved on it._


How lovely!!!


----------



## disneykim17

Lorana said:


> Yes, this. So much this.  We wanted DVC not just to own a piece of the magic (though we also own Disney stock, so there's that too!*), but we want that escape.  Part of our love of Disney is love of that Disney bubble, and we always stay onsite for that reason.
> 
> I pretty much live my life to travel and to create vacation memories with the people I love, treating them as often as I can to make those moments happen.  When I was younger, I used to accrue vacation time, but as my work got more demanding, the more I realized how important that time together is, and now I make a point to always spend my vacation time with my family and friends, at Disney and other places around the world.
> 
> _*Our first wedding anniversary was long enough ago that they still printed Disney stocks, and since the first anniversary is "paper" as the gift, that's what I got my husband - Disney stock, framed, with "So You'll Always Have a Piece of the Magic" engraved on it._


Our first anniversary many years ago was our first trip together to Disney (Contemporary) and our addiction to Disney has only grown over the years.  We have been able to treat my parents and my husband's sister to Disney vacations and wonderful memories for all.


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

becauseimnew said:


> I think we will finally start to see lower prices, I've seen more companies announce layoff this week
> So sad



It's only the beginning unfortunately


----------



## Brianstl

Prince John Robin Hood said:


> It's only the beginning unfortunately


And moving up the food chain quickly.


----------



## CastAStone

becauseimnew said:


> I think we will finally start to see lower prices, I've seen more companies announce layoff this week
> So sad


This is what scared me in today’s unemployment numbers. Could really impact DVC prices down the road:


----------



## EM Lawrence

Lower DVC prices are a pie-in-the-sky wonderful thought until the actual layoffs start happening.  This has not been a good week.


----------



## starfrenzy

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> DH especially loves the skyliner, though he calls it the "skywalker"



My 3 year old calls it “The Eske-liner”


----------



## E2ME2

becauseimnew said:


> I think we will finally start to see lower prices, I've seen more companies announce layoff this week
> So sad


Sad to see the layoffs, and sadder still to see how long this pandemic has impacted all of us.  Calendar year-end through early 1st quarter typically sees some price drops anyway, as some sellers decide to want to get out before paying another full year MFs.  This could be compounded by the economic impacts. I thought I was very fortunate to get 225 points at SSR for less that $89/PP back in February of this year, but it went even lower for a while, when ROFR was totally suspended.  Then, about a month ago, ROFR re-engaged, and I saw SSR contracts taken at $99/PP.    But, in light of the current crisis, added to the year-end impact, and the typical election uncertainty we see every 4-years, maybe there will soon be some bargains to be obtained for anyone still in the market to add-on at DVC. (??)


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

CastAStone said:


> I would call the current AKV pricing "unsustainable". At least relative to the other resorts.
> 
> One thing I've learned this summer is that the brokers at DVC Resale Market have a lot of pricing power when they dedicate themselves to a cause and can move the market singlehandedly when the conditions allow for it. That's what happened here IMO - supply got tight and DVCRM decided that the sellers should take pricing and flexed to make it so.
> 
> With supply loosening, prices will settle. Eventually.


I have noticed most recently listed AKV contracts  In the $120s have been sitting for a couple of weeks now.  I suspect they will end up going for a lot less.  I agree it is unsustainable and I wouldn’t pay more than $105 for AKV.  You can get SSR for $95 for one year less on the contract, the MFs are lower at SSR and you can book AKV with SSR points because there is almost always availability at AKV at 7 months.


----------



## Sandisw

we"reofftoneverland said:


> I have noticed most recently listed AKV contracts  In the $120s have been sitting for a couple of weeks now.  I suspect they will end up going for a lot less.  I agree it is unsustainable and I wouldn’t pay more than $105 for AKV.  You can get SSR for $95 for one year less on the contract, the MFs are lower at SSR and you can book AKV with SSR points because there is almost always availability at AKV at 7 months.



AKV ends in 2057 and SSR is 2054, so 3 years.


----------



## Louis morrell

Someone said Disney is an escape from real life for them.
For me riding the bus is an escape from real life. We just don’t see too many  out in the country where we live


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Louis morrell said:


> Someone said Disney is an escape from real life for them.
> For me riding the bus is an escape from real life. We just don’t see too many  out in the country where we live


Disney has also been improving the buses--many have wifi now, and I like that a big part of their fleet uses renewable fuels.  I for one like the buses so long as they run regularly; the only time I don't is when they get super crowded like at night after the evening fireworks when everyone is trying to leave.  The monorail can suffer from that a little, also, but not too bad in my experience.  I have appreciated the skyliner or walking proximity during those peak times.

But yeah, the buses are good too!


----------



## Prince John Robin Hood

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> Disney has also been improving the buses--many have wifi now, and I like that a big part of their fleet uses renewable fuels.  I for one like the buses so long as they run regularly; the only time I don't is when they get super crowded like at night after the evening fireworks when everyone is trying to leave.  The monorail can suffer from that a little, also, but not too bad in my experience.  I have appreciated the skyliner or walking proximity during those peak times.
> 
> But yeah, the buses are good too!



I'm looking forward to trying out the skyliner.  Hopefully it turns out to be a reliable mode of transportation and they expand it over time.


----------



## Ruttangel

I think Disney missed a trick with the Skyliner, they should have created a subway instead, no weather issues and they could have themed it like Space Mountain

How cool!


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Ruttangel said:


> I think Disney missed a trick with the Skyliner, they should have created a subway instead, no weather issues and they could have themed it like Space Mountain
> 
> How cool!


I just put in a monorail


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Ruttangel said:


> I think Disney missed a trick with the Skyliner, they should have created a subway instead, no weather issues and they could have themed it like Space Mountain
> 
> How cool!


Lol, I think you're joking? But just in case: FL is a swamp, you can't have a subway (or basements or anything too deep underground). You'll just hit water.

Fun fact: the MK utilidoor "tunnels" are actually were the ground level was, everything on top was built on dirt dug out to create the Seven Seas Lagoon. They wanted MK and the castle to be higher ground and visible from a distance


----------



## Ruttangel

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> Lol, I think you're joking? But just in case: FL is a swamp, you can't have a subway (or basements or anything too deep underground). You'll just hit water.
> 
> Fun fact: the MK utilidoor "tunnels" are actually were the ground level was, everything on top was built on dirt dug out to create the Seven Seas Lagoon. They wanted MK and the castle to be higher ground and visible from a distance


Yes, it was tongue in cheek, it could end up a bit more like Nemo and Friends than Space Mountain.


----------



## JETSDAD

Not sure if this one was posted elsewhere yet....

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-september-2020/


----------



## PaulW08

JETSDAD said:


> Not sure if this one was posted elsewhere yet....
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-september-2020/



Oh man, the trend for AKV


----------



## Ruttangel

JETSDAD said:


> Not sure if this one was posted elsewhere yet....
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-september-2020/


There are some insane prices on there in comparison to the deals we DISBoarders can get.
Make you wonder if people even haggle at all


----------



## RoseGold

Ruttangel said:


> There are some insane prices on there in comparison to the deals we DISBoarders can get.
> Make you wonder if people even haggle at all



Going resale was winning most of the battle, not a few bucks at the end.


----------



## JETSDAD

Ruttangel said:


> There are some insane prices on there in comparison to the deals we DISBoarders can get.
> Make you wonder if people even haggle at all


I think people posting here tend to be a bit more willing to negotiate and take their time but I also think people are less likely to post something that they feel they overpaid on than if they think they got a good deal.  This can skew the numbers here.


----------



## Ruttangel

RoseGold said:


> Going resale was winning most of the battle, not a few bucks at the end.


Yes, I agree I just meant that our DIS averages must be lower than theirs.

I know www.dvcresalemarket.com is on the high side anyway,  within 1 minute of looking I can see a 100pt AKV for $115, so not hard to beat their prices.


----------



## Turn the Page

Duckbug.Ducktales said:


> Disney has also been improving the buses--many have wifi now, and I like that a big part of their fleet uses renewable fuels.  I for one like the buses so long as they run regularly; the only time I don't is when they get super crowded like at night after the evening fireworks when everyone is trying to leave.  The monorail can suffer from that a little, also, but not too bad in my experience.  I have appreciated the skyliner or walking proximity during those peak times.
> 
> But yeah, the buses are good too!



All of this.  The only gripe I have about SSR is the bussing situation.  It isn't even that buses are the only transportation option to the parks, I realize there is a boat to Disney Springs, the issue I have is the resort is so stinking huge that there are multiple internal bus stops before you even leave the resort to head to the parks.  Actually, it isn't the multiple stops before you leave the resort it is the multiple stops before you get to your stop after park closing that really stinks.  

Otherwise we love the resort and would have no issues whatsoever staying there.  We just adore the Skyliner.


----------



## striker1064

PaulW08 said:


> Oh man, the trend for AKV



Precisely why we put ours up for sale. Those prices... we'd make a fair bit over what we bought it for, and if we still want it in a year or two, we can jump back in when (I think, anyway) there could be a glut of contracts on the market, depressing prices.


----------



## kerrylacherry

Ruttangel said:


> Yes, I agree I just meant that our DIS averages must be lower than theirs.
> 
> I know www.dvcresalemarket.com is on the high side anyway,  within 1 minute of looking I can see a 100pt AKV for $115, so not hard to beat their prices.



I can see why sellers would want to list with www.dvcresalemarket.com with their inflated list prices, and their instant purchase price nonsense. Maybe it's the NJ in me, but everything about real estate pricing is negotiable, and their prices and attempts to dissuade me from offering low have led me to reconsider offering for more than one of their listings that caught my eye.


----------



## RoseGold

kerrylacherry said:


> attempts to dissuade me from offering low have led me to reconsider offering for more than one of their listings that caught my eye.



I offered low and bought from that site.  It's not surprising to anyone that this is a negotiation.


----------



## kerrylacherry

RoseGold said:


> I offered low and bought from that site.  It's not surprising to anyone that this is a negotiation.


Everyone's experience is going to be different.
I simply dislike how they use the instant sale price - if they wanted to buy it, then just buy it, don't bother listing it only to get jealous a lower offer came in that the seller may be willing to accept. Perhaps it was just the alignment of Mercury that the interaction with the agent rubbed me the wrong way, but it didn't inspire confidence, YMMV.


----------



## Brianstl

JETSDAD said:


> I think people posting here tend to be a bit more willing to negotiate and take their time but I also think people are less likely to post something that they feel they overpaid on than if they think they got a good deal.  This can skew the numbers here.


I think the big issue with these reports and why they are often misleading when it comes to average price per point is that small point contracts get added to the average with the same weight as the rest.  When you sell a 50 point Beach Club contract at $169 and a 200 point contract at $131, you get an average resale price of $150, but $150 per point doesn't really represent what the market actually is for Beach Club contracts.


----------



## JETSDAD

Brianstl said:


> I think the big issue with these reports and why they are often misleading when it comes to average price per point is that small point contracts get added to the average with the same weight as the rest.  When you sell a 50 point Beach Club contract at $169 and a 200 point contract at $131, you get an average resale price of $150, but $150 per point doesn't really represent what the market actually is for Beach Club contracts.


Yes but then you also have large contracts at lower prices that help average that out.  I know it's not a weighted average (otherwise it would actually give too much weight to large contracts) but it gives a bit of a picture.  The other thing to consider is that with a company like this there are a lot of sales which will help to balance the scale.  A small company, or a resort with an extremely low number of sales, is going to be thrown off by one contract selling high or low.  When you have as many sales as they do it does tend to give a reasonable average.  Yes on a given month you could have a whole bunch of small sales and the next a whole bunch of large sales but the numbers have generally not had huge swings month to month because of the number of contracts sold. The key is to watch the trends. Also, right in their article it states that factors such as size of contract, points available, etc. can cause variances in sale prices.


----------



## The Jackal

Turn the Page said:


> All of this.  The only gripe I have about SSR is the bussing situation.  It isn't even that buses are the only transportation option to the parks, I realize there is a boat to Disney Springs, the issue I have is the resort is so stinking huge that there are multiple internal bus stops before you even leave the resort to head to the parks.  Actually, it isn't the multiple stops before you leave the resort it is the multiple stops before you get to your stop after park closing that really stinks.
> 
> Otherwise we love the resort and would have no issues whatsoever staying there.  We just adore the Skyliner.


When you go to SSR just request Grandstand, first on, first off. Problem with Skyliner is when it stops, could be for 2 min, could be 20 min, you'll never know and it's too late to get off


----------



## Turn the Page

The Jackal said:


> When you go to SSR just request Grandstand, first on, first off. Problem with Skyliner is when it stops, could be for 2 min, could be 20 min, you'll never know and it's too late to get off



I know.  We stayed in Grandstand before. I greatly preferred it to the Springs section.  But even in the Grandstand section you have to hit all the stops before heading to the park.  We just prefer the Skyliner.


----------



## davidl81

JETSDAD said:


> I think people posting here tend to be a bit more willing to negotiate and take their time but I also think people are less likely to post something that they feel they overpaid on than if they think they got a good deal.  This can skew the numbers here.



And look I’ve always wondering if everyone posting is 100% honest with what they are paying.  It is the internet after all and there is always a few people who want to “win”.  There are deals to be had, and some people are desperate to sell, but I just question it sometimes.  And honestly most brokers like a decent real estate agent will advise their client if they are getting a fair offer or not.  If certain sites are listing at “high” prices, they are only doing so because they are selling at those prices and getting the best deal for their client.  I can’t figure out why people on this board get mad about that.  If you were the seller you would of course want someone getting you the most money that they could for your points.


----------



## Duckbug.Ducktales

Turn the Page said:


> We just adore the Skyliner.


Same!


----------



## Kickstart

davidl81 said:


> And look I’ve always wondering if everyone posting is 100% honest with what they are paying.  It is the internet after all and there is always a few people who want to “win”.  There are deals to be had, and some people are desperate to sell, but I just question it sometimes.  And honestly most brokers like a decent real estate agent will advise their client if they are getting a fair offer or not.  If certain sites are listing at “high” prices, they are only doing so because they are selling at those prices and getting the best deal for their client.  I can’t figure out why people on this board get mad about that.  If you were the seller you would of course want someone getting you the most money that they could for your points.



Doesn't the agent have to legally represent both the buyer and seller?  I know each state is different, but for some reason I though the DVC resale agents had to represent both.

I put in a few low-ball offers with different agencies, as far as I can tell they faithfully presented the offers.  For the one I bought, the agent called me back with the counter offer close to my asking price... and admitted they were surprised.

I would think (hope) most people posting their ROFR here are being honest, as the purpose is to help others get an idea of actual selling price and what price risks being taken.  But yeah, it's the internet - all sorts of illogical things happen... and on that point, I could understand some people not wanting to post an above average purchase price if they felt they would be judged.


----------



## davidl81

Kickstart said:


> Doesn't the agent have to legally represent both the buyer and seller?  I know each state is different, but for some reason I though the DVC resale agents had to represent both.
> 
> I put in a few low-ball offers with different agencies, as far as I can tell they faithfully presented the offers.  For the one I bought, the agent called me back with the counter offer close to my asking price... and admitted they were surprised.
> 
> I would think (hope) most people posting their ROFR here are being honest, as the purpose is to help others get an idea of actual selling price and what price risks being taken.  But yeah, it's the internet - all sorts of illogical things happen... and on that point, I could understand some people not wanting to post an above average purchase price if they felt they would be judged.


They are supposed to present offers from buyers, but they should also be advising their clients on what market price is and if the offer they are presenting is in that range.


----------



## Dean

davidl81 said:


> They are supposed to present offers from buyers, but they should also be advising their clients on what market price is and if the offer they are presenting is in that range.


Legally they have to present all offers unless they have written instructions to the contrary.


----------



## CLE2WDW

Slightly off topic but anyone else scour the DVC resale pages just to sometimes get a good chuckle at list prices are are totally unrealistic?  For example, I won’t name the site but I recently came across a 160 point BLT contract (not loaded) that’s asking $165/point.  Someone needs to make the seller aware of recent market dynamics.


----------



## E2ME2

JETSDAD said:


> Not sure if this one was posted elsewhere yet....
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-september-2020/


WOW - everything trending upward in Sep. sans VGF & BWV !


----------



## ldo

hmmm.. if you look at ROFR thread from June-Sept, AKV does not get anywhere near the dvcresales "sales" pricing. maybe they have lots of small AKV contracts, for which I could see the higher pricing. I don't recall seeing anyone on disboards paying $118-120 for a 160 points in the summer.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

I see a lot of contracts (especially AKV) listed at higher prices, but I suspect the ones that get sold are going for less.  From my personal experience, I made an offer on a contract that was (IMO) overpriced. 

I offered $20 less pp than asking.  The owner countered by reducing $5 pp. 

I conveyed that my original offer was the best I could do.  I was prepared for the seller to say they wouldn't come down that much, but was surprised to hear later that day that my offer had been accepted.


----------



## EM Lawrence

It’s possible that there are some posters who don’t tell the truth about the price they paid, but you can still see trends in pricing on these boards, even if the odd duck is lying for some bizarre reason.


----------



## Dean

EM Lawrence said:


> It’s possible that there are some posters who don’t tell the truth about the price they paid, but you can still see trends in pricing on these boards, even if the odd duck is lying for some bizarre reason.


I'm doubt most people lie but what I think happens quite often is many underestimate their true price and over estimate their savings by failing to consider closing and maintenance fees.  That's esp true since most people actually overpay the fees as a reimbursement to the seller.  The "you get the points you pay the fees" is a flawed and inappropriate stance where DVC is concerned because the fees are paid on a calendar year basis rather than UY basis.


----------



## striker1064

It's also that this board is a small subset of resale buyers. Plus, it's likely even fewer people actually bother posting to the ROFR thread. That thread skews toward lower pricing, and anytime I see a higher than usual price, there's at least one and often multiple posters commenting on it. It would be easy to see why someone who paid higher than average might not want to post there. 

The AKV pricing confuses me. I wouldn't pay $120, we paid way less under a year ago. So, we put our contract for sale. If no one bites at $120, no problem, we bought for a reason. If it does go for $120 we're taking that straight to the bank because it was an easy and unexpected flip. And we can always jump back in when the market turns down again.


----------



## kerrylacherry

Dean said:


> The "you get the points you pay the fees" is a flawed and inappropriate stance where DVC is concerned because the fees are paid on a calendar year basis rather than UY basis.



100% agree on the MF - When I was putting in offers in August, none of the agents would budge on the MF, even when I argued that by the time it closed I'd be on the hook for the next year's MF as well. It was extremely frustrating that no one had a better answer to why beyond "that's the way it is."


----------



## CLE2WDW

kerrylacherry said:


> 100% agree on the MF - When I was putting in offers in August, none of the agents would budge on the MF, even when I argued that by the time it closed I'd be on the hook for the next year's MF as well. It was extremely frustrating that no one had a better answer to why beyond "that's the way it is."


It’s one of the worst arguments an agent/seller can make. If you’re that concerned about recouping your 2020 dues then rent the points out and then sell the contract. I had an offer fall apart because the seller was dead set on the buyer paying the 2020 MF on a BC February contract. So I backed out of the potential sale and it continues to fill me with joy that the contract is still on the market. The agent/seller even had the nerve to follow up with me weeks later to offer to split the 2020 MF... I politely said the seller can pound sand.


----------



## kerrylacherry

CLE2WDW said:


> I had an offer fall apart because the seller was dead set on the buyer paying the 2020 MF on a BC February contract. So I backed out of the potential sale and it continues to fill me with joy that the contract is still on the market. The agent/seller even had the nerve to follow up with me weeks later to offer to split the 2020 MF... I politely said the seller can pound sand.



 I had one that advertised no dues, but they included both the 2020 and 2019 dues (for the banked points) in their ridiculously high list price. They would not budge either.


----------



## Lorana

kerrylacherry said:


> 100% agree on the MF - When I was putting in offers in August, none of the agents would budge on the MF, even when I argued that by the time it closed I'd be on the hook for the next year's MF as well. It was extremely frustrating that no one had a better answer to why beyond "that's the way it is."


Also agreed. If the agent pushes back on my offer because I want the seller to pay MFs, I lower my offer to cover them. Especially for any contract I made an offer for after June, since at that point you’d be looking at 3 months or less remaining in 2020.


----------



## Dean

kerrylacherry said:


> 100% agree on the MF - When I was putting in offers in August, none of the agents would budge on the MF, even when I argued that by the time it closed I'd be on the hook for the next year's MF as well. It was extremely frustrating that no one had a better answer to why beyond "that's the way it is."


IMO one has to question either the intelligence or the honesty of a company that is well familiar with DVC that takes this philosophy because the way the dues are calculated is straight forward (calendar year basis).  The easy way to tell what they should be is "what would the dues be if buying direct?".  Other than when one is buying during the UY and gets reduced fees, everything else is simply what the dues are supposed to be, not a sales benefit.  As a buyer you just figure the overall cost and decide if it's worth it or not.


----------



## Lva5

The Jackal said:


> When you go to SSR just request Grandstand, first on, first off. Problem with Skyliner is when it stops, could be for 2 min, could be 20 min, you'll never know and it's too late to get off



...are you sure they stop the Skyliner with people on board?


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

Lva5 said:


> ...are you sure they stop the Skyliner with people on board?


They don't intentionally stop it with people on board.


----------



## cometdad2010

Just to get a feel for a reasonable price... our membership info just arrived for our first resale contract (200 points AKV, Oct use year). We're looking to add on a second 100-150 point contract, either AKV or SSR with the same Oct use year. I've been watching multiple resale listings, but haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet. What's a reasonable price per point for both? I don't want to go too low with ROFR seeming to pick up, but I don't want to get a bad deal, either. I was thinking 100-105/point for SSR and 105-110 for AKV? Does that make sense on a 100-150 point contract?


----------



## E2ME2

cometdad2010 said:


> Just to get a feel for a reasonable price... our membership info just arrived for our first resale contract (200 points AKV, Oct use year). We're looking to add on a second 100-150 point contract, either AKV or SSR with the same Oct use year. I've been watching multiple resale listings, but haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet. What's a reasonable price per point for both? I don't want to go too low with ROFR seeming to pick up, but I don't want to get a bad deal, either. I was thinking 100-105/point for SSR and 105-110 for AKV? Does that make sense on a 100-150 point contract?


I think 100 is still high for SSR. I know some were recently taken in the 90s, but I would not go above $90

AKV hasn't had ROFR exercised in a long time; I would try 95-99/PP there.
Here's latest ROFR table:


----------



## cometdad2010

E2ME2 said:


> I think 100 is still high for SSR. I know some were recently taken in the 90s, but I would not go above $90
> 
> AKV hasn't had ROFR exercised in a long time; I would try 95-99/PP there.View attachment 531490
> Here's latest ROFR table:



Thank you! That chart is very helpful.


----------



## davidl81

E2ME2 said:


> I think 100 is still high for SSR. I know some were recently taken in the 90s, but I would not go above $90
> 
> AKV hasn't had ROFR exercised in a long time; I would try 95-99/PP there.View attachment 531490
> Here's latest ROFR table:


I think shooting for under 90 at SSR is going to be really hard to pass ROFR right now.  If you have tons of time and patience then go for it, but I wouldn’t be shocked if you get a bunch taken by Disney at that price point in the near term.  Seems like mid to high 90s is even tough right now.


----------



## Ruttangel

cometdad2010 said:


> Just to get a feel for a reasonable price... our membership info just arrived for our first resale contract (200 points AKV, Oct use year). We're looking to add on a second 100-150 point contract, either AKV or SSR with the same Oct use year. I've been watching multiple resale listings, but haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet. What's a reasonable price per point for both? I don't want to go too low with ROFR seeming to pick up, but I don't want to get a bad deal, either. I was thinking 100-105/point for SSR and 105-110 for AKV? Does that make sense on a 100-150 point contract?


This SSR listing has been there a while, could be had for under $90
https://vacatia.com/vacation-club-resales/disney-vacation-club-55523


----------



## poofyo101

Ruttangel said:


> This SSR listing has been there a while, could be had for under $90
> https://vacatia.com/vacation-club-resales/disney-vacation-club-55523


Unlikely 90 makes it through ROFR the way it sits right now.


----------



## Ruttangel

poofyo101 said:


> Unlikely 90 makes it through ROFR the way it sits right now.


I agree, but you could get lucky, could be international seller for example


----------



## poofyo101

Ruttangel said:


> I agree, but you could get lucky, could be international seller for example


Yes just trying to help the poster as she has made passing rofr an important factor


----------



## EM Lawrence

Starport Seven-Five said:


> They don't intentionally stop it with people on board.


I’ve only been on the SL half a dozen times, but it experienced brief stops every single time.  I was always so relieved to hear the message that we were about to start moving again, because I still have not forgotten that nightmare of people getting stuck for 3 hours in the air when it first opened.  I was in another Disney chat group with one of the people stuck onboard, and he was giving us live updates.  They were in the gondola with about 7 people, their party plus another party.  That is pretty crowded for those gondolas. Fortunately, that has not happened again!


----------



## EM Lawrence

If you are very worried about ROFR, I’d wait a couple of months before putting in offers. I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC. They may be buying back contracts right now due to a short term spike in demand for buyers who want to get in before the blue card minimum increases to 125, but I expect that demand to fizzle out pretty quickly.  I don’t think DVC resale or direct have felt the full pain of this economic disaster created by Covid yet. DVC can’t continue to support itself primarily on sales to existing members.  They need fresh buyers in the parks to feed their machine, and it is going to be an extended period of time before they all come back again. YMMV.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

Dean said:


> I'm doubt most people lie but what I think happens quite often is many underestimate their true price and over estimate their savings by *failing to consider closing and maintenance fees*.  That's esp true since most people actually overpay the fees as a reimbursement to the seller.  The "you get the points you pay the fees" is a flawed and inappropriate stance where DVC is concerned because the fees are paid on a calendar year basis rather than UY basis.


I often wonder about this on the ROFR threads.  It says to include those fees in the total (which I did when posting about my recent purchase), but sometimes posts appear to omit that information. 

Even if the seller paid the MFs, there are almost certainly SOME closing costs.  So when I see a post there that reflects, for example, 100 points at $100 and the reported total is $10K even, I have to think some information is missing.

I don't think anyone's lying about what they paid to "brag" but I do think some of those costs get omitted on the ROFR thread for whatever reason.


----------



## CarolMN

EM Lawrence said:


> I’ve only been on the SL half a dozen times, but it experienced brief stops every single time.


If those were on the EPCOT line, the brief stops are due to wheelchair/ECV loading at the Riviera station.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

cometdad2010 said:


> Just to get a feel for a reasonable price... our membership info just arrived for our first resale contract (200 points AKV, Oct use year). We're looking to add on a second 100-150 point contract, either AKV or SSR with the same Oct use year. I've been watching multiple resale listings, but haven't pulled the trigger on anything yet. What's a reasonable price per point for both? I don't want to go too low with ROFR seeming to pick up, but I don't want to get a bad deal, either. I was thinking 100-105/point for SSR and 105-110 for AKV? Does that make sense on a 100-150 point contract?



SSR= I wouldn’t pay higher than $95
AKL= I wouldn’t pay higher than $105
Do not pay 2020 member fees.  If broker pushes back just go to another broker.  There are brokers who do not push back on that.


----------



## Dean

Grumpy by Birth said:


> I often wonder about this on the ROFR threads.  It says to include those fees in the total (which I did when posting about my recent purchase), but sometimes posts appear to omit that information.
> 
> Even if the seller paid the MFs, there are almost certainly SOME closing costs.  So when I see a post there that reflects, for example, 100 points at $100 and the reported total is $10K even, I have to think some information is missing.
> 
> I don't think anyone's lying about what they paid to "brag" but I do think some of those costs get omitted on the ROFR thread for whatever reason.


Some other issues I've seen with posted purchase or ROFR prices (timeshares in general not just DVC) include that those that are outliers are less likely to post.  If one paid more then realize it later, they are less likely to admit to same.  If one was low they sometimes are reluctant to post as well for several reasons.  I know at one time when DVC would exercise ROFR they'd put in their paperwork a requirement the seller not disclose the price but since it hasn't been mentioned in some time I suspect they no longer do so.  I also think some of the resale companies try to manipulate the prices and this is one way that can be done.  While it doesn't get the volume for DVC that DIS and some other sites do, rofr.net is another location that tracks resale prices and can be a great resource for Marriott, Hilton and Vistana/Westin.


----------



## EM Lawrence

CarolMN said:


> If those were on the EPCOT line, the brief stops are due to wheelchair/ECV loading at the Riviera station.


That is what I figured, and considering I will need an ECV on my next trip those brief stops don’t bother me a bit.  But it is such a relief when you start moving again!!!


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

EM Lawrence said:


> If you are very worried about ROFR, I’d wait a couple of months before putting in offers. I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC. They may be buying back contracts right now due to a short term spike in demand for buyers who want to get in before the blue card minimum increases to 125, but I expect that demand to fizzle out pretty quickly.  I don’t think DVC resale or direct have felt the full pain of this economic disaster created by Covid yet. DVC can’t continue to support itself primarily on sales to existing members.  They need fresh buyers in the parks to feed their machine, and it is going to be an extended period of time before they all come back again. YMMV.



I agree.  I am optimistic about the economy in general in terms of recovering from Covid, but not on dvc.  DVC is a luxury item and people are scaling back some.  Plus, wdw is still providing a reduced experience.  GC and AUL are not even open.


----------



## CastAStone

EM Lawrence said:


> I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC.


I’ve begun to rethink how the economy will impact DVC prices, at least in the next 8-12 months.

We’re in the strangest economy, maybe ever?

Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.

Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.

BUT

We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.

The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.

I don’t think we will reach tipping point where prices drop until most people start to take the big vacation and dine out and buy new shoes and generally start spending their excess cash again. At that point I do expect we will see supply exceed demand and prices fall. But it will be a while, it seems.


----------



## CLE2WDW

EM Lawrence said:


> If you are very worried about ROFR, I’d wait a couple of months before putting in offers. I’ve become extremely bearish on the future of DVC prices, and the economy in general. The company just laid off 28,000 people and that included entire divisions of DVC. They may be buying back contracts right now due to a short term spike in demand for buyers who want to get in before the blue card minimum increases to 125, but I expect that demand to fizzle out pretty quickly.  I don’t think DVC resale or direct have felt the full pain of this economic disaster created by Covid yet. DVC can’t continue to support itself primarily on sales to existing members.  They need fresh buyers in the parks to feed their machine, and it is going to be an extended period of time before they all come back again. YMMV.


I agree with your stance. The backlog of DVC points will continue likely into summer of 2021 with a large percentage of DVC owners uncomfortable/unable to travel. We have experienced a small recovery but I think by Early 2021 there will be a significant correction in the DVC resale market. I think DVC owners are in for a shock when they get their bills for 2021 MFs and this will encourage many owners to sell their contracts.


----------



## EM Lawrence

This is definitely a weird economy. Take a hard position on it only if you are willing to eat some humble pie.  

But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale.  And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending.  I think some sectors of the economy are very secure, or even booming, but I suspect a lot more are less secure than we realize right this moment. 

I’ll happily eat these words if I’m wrong.


----------



## Lva5

EM Lawrence said:


> I’ve only been on the SL half a dozen times, but it experienced brief stops every single time.  I was always so relieved to hear the message that we were about to start moving again, because I still have not forgotten that nightmare of people getting stuck for 3 hours in the air when it first opened.  I was in another Disney chat group with one of the people stuck onboard, and he was giving us live updates.  They were in the gondola with about 7 people, their party plus another party.  That is pretty crowded for those gondolas. Fortunately, that has not happened again!


They will slow it down for issues at the station (someone has trouble loading) but they wouldn't stop it with people on board. If they need to bring it down for, say, inclement weather they stop loading and wait for everyone to cycle off... you made it sound like they just mash the STOP button and if you're on it, tough luck.

It did have that issue you describe right after it opened but that was a malfunction and not intentional. I don't think it has happened since.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Lva5 said:


> They will slow it down for issues at the station (someone has trouble loading) but they wouldn't stop it with people on board. If they need to bring it down for, say, inclement weather they stop loading and wait for everyone to cycle off... you made it sound like they just mash the STOP button and if you're on it, tough luck.
> 
> It did have that issue you describe right after it opened but that was a malfunction and not intentional. I don't think it has happened since.


You read something into my words that are not there.  They do stop it briefly with people on board to load at the stations.  I believe the RIV station does not have a special loading dock for people that require ECVs or wheelchairs, and they need to stop the line briefly to load those gondolas. It has happened every time I’ve ridden it.  The stops have been brief, but it was not a slow down. It was a full stop with announcements that the SL was stopping and then announcements that it was about to start moving again.

For inclement weather, they do unload all of the gondolas before they stop running it.  Of course they do that.


----------



## Dean

EM Lawrence said:


> This is definitely a weird economy. Take a hard position on it only if you are willing to eat some humble pie.
> 
> But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale.  And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending.  I think some sectors of the economy are very secure, or even booming, but I suspect a lot more are less secure than we realize right this moment.
> 
> I’ll happily eat these words if I’m wrong.


It took a good couple of years for 08/09 to reach it's full effect, there's no reason to think this time won't be any different.  It appears a lot of people have self medicated by buying stuff which will prop up the economy for a while.  There have also been blocks on evictions and foreclosures that have delayed the inevitable for many.  And then there's those PPP Loans/Grants which are unlikely to be converted from loans to grants for many, possible for anyone.  And a host of other factors.  Tickle down economics will prove out in the end, it always does.  My prediction is it will take time for the full effect to settle in this time as well and we haven't seen anything yet in terms of pain.  And I'd be happy to eat those words after the 5-7 years this is likely to take to settle out.


----------



## CastAStone

EM Lawrence said:


> This is definitely a weird economy. Take a hard position on it only if you are willing to eat some humble pie.
> 
> But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale.  And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending.  I think some sectors of the economy are very secure, or even booming, but I suspect a lot more are less secure than we realize right this moment.
> 
> I’ll happily eat these words if I’m wrong.


I agree, but key word eventually. I think it will be a while yet. I previously had thought we’d see prices falling meaningfully late this fall or this winter.


----------



## Where'sPiglet?

CLE2WDW said:


> I agree with your stance. The backlog of DVC points will continue likely into summer of 2021 with a large percentage of DVC owners uncomfortable/unable to travel. We have experienced a small recovery but I think by Early 2021 there will be a significant correction in the DVC resale market.* I think DVC owners are in for a shock when they get their bills for 2021 MFs* and this will encourage many owners to sell their contracts.



Why do you think this? I'm curious.


----------



## Cabius

we"reofftoneverland said:


> Do not pay 2020 member fees.  If broker pushes back just go to another broker.  There are brokers who do not push back on that.



Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another? 

I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!


----------



## Hjs33

CastAStone said:


> Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.
> 
> Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.
> 
> BUT
> 
> We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.
> 
> The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.


I‘ve had a similar take.  Although its been bad for tens of millions of mostly restaurant, travel, and store employees, for most people the downturn hasn’t really hit them financially.  DVC is probably more of a middle class purchase,  I think for most middle class families they have only been slightly impacted and have probably saved quite a bit from reduced travel and dinning out.  Personally myself, working from home the past 6 months has also allowed our family to save a substantial amount on daycare costs and we canceled two vacations.  So now we’re a little flush with cash, so the thought of adding on some points to DVC has crossed our minds.


----------



## Red Dog Run

ldo said:


> hmmm.. if you look at ROFR thread from June-Sept, AKV does not get anywhere near the dvcresales "sales" pricing. maybe they have lots of small AKV contracts, for which I could see the higher pricing. I don't recall seeing anyone on disboards paying $118-120 for a 160 points in the summer.


I paid 100 for AKV per point.  I thought it was a GREAT deal.  I could not get that low for OKW!  I paid 107, 110, then 165 direct for the blue card 100 pt min.  I bought 4 contracts in all, and when I added all my purchases, it came out to 129 average ppt.  I'm ok with that.  Many got better, many paid higher.  It's kind of like what was available at that moment for my use month, etc.  Also, I did not realize I wanted more points as I began. My research should have been more complete.  I bought 2 contracts for 70 points each at OKW.  I would have come out much better getting a single 150.


----------



## Turn the Page

CastAStone said:


> I’ve begun to rethink how the economy will impact DVC prices, at least in the next 8-12 months.
> 
> We’re in the strangest economy, maybe ever?
> 
> Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.
> 
> Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.
> 
> BUT
> 
> We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.
> 
> The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.
> 
> I don’t think we will reach tipping point where prices drop until most people start to take the big vacation and dine out and buy new shoes and generally start spending their excess cash again. At that point I do expect we will see supply exceed demand and prices fall. But it will be a while, it seems.




This is us.  DH manages a grocery store so he has been working crazy hours through this entire mess and business is booming.  We have been able to pay things off faster than we otherwise would have and come spring time we are buying.


----------



## Dean

Cabius said:


> Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another?
> 
> I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!


It seems that all that specialize in DVC take this approach though some are more hardline than others.  It baffles me somewhat that they do because it's clear that DVC charges dues on a calendar year basis, NOT a UY basis.  Historically it probably started from the weeks timeshare system where the "you get the week, you pay the points" was and still is the standard.  I realize it makes it cleaner and less complicated to take the same approach but they should at least acknowledge the situation.  The reality is that MOST people who buy in overpay on dues and are effectively paying dues on points they didn't have.  You just have to look at the overall cost and savings and compare.


Red Dog Run said:


> I paid 100 for AKV per point.  I thought it was a GREAT deal.  I could not get that low for OKW!  I paid 107, 110, then 165 direct for the blue card 100 pt min.  I bought 4 contracts in all, and when I added all my purchases, it came out to 129 average ppt.  I'm ok with that.  Many got better, many paid higher.  It's kind of like what was available at that moment for my use month, etc.  Also, I did not realize I wanted more points as I began. My research should have been more complete.  I bought 2 contracts for 70 points each at OKW.  I would have come out much better getting a single 150.


I've preached on this for years.  Historically the savings of one 150 over two 75 has been substantial unless you could find them from a single owner and do a single closing.  Over the years it's been roughly a $10 PP difference though variable.  Plus, IMO, one should never buy planning to resell though they should at least consider the option as part of their planning.  And paying more for legacy options is usually not a good choice.  My view is that if you think you need 100, you should probably buy around 150 as a single if it's one resort.  Plus one should almost always but a cushion of 10-20% (rarely even more) until you get up to 200-300 or so and that as you get to more volume, you don't need much or any cushion and that in many cases for larger volumes, one should buy less than they think they need.  Put another way I think that it's quite common for those who are overly worried about the costs and/or focusing on special view options to buy less than they should and those who's emotions take over, buy too much, too many resorts, etc.  I think it's also quite common that emotions often lead one to buying more in terms of which home resort as well.  If one is looking at multiple home resorts or a larger volume of points, may as well buy one and try it out before buying more unless they are already well versed in the actual usage through direct experience.


----------



## EYL

Cabius said:


> Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another?
> 
> I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!



My resale purchase was through Fidelity and they were okay with sellers paying for MF's for previous UY banked points.  When making the offer, just be very clear:  $XXX per point and the seller pays for YYY.  The contract should state so clearly as well.  My offer was made in December and when I called to follow up on my online offer, the agent even seemed surprised that I reiterated this.  I found Fidelity to be pleasant to work with.  The title company they preferred was slow and is a different story.


----------



## Dean

EYL said:


> My resale purchase was through Fidelity and they were okay with sellers paying for MF's for previous UY banked points.  When making the offer, just be very clear:  $XXX per point and the seller pays for YYY.  The contract should state so clearly as well.  My offer was made in December and when I called to follow up on my online offer, the agent even seemed surprised that I reiterated this.  I found Fidelity to be pleasant to work with.  The title company they preferred was slow and is a different story.


I think there are 2 issues here, what the fees are and who pays them.  My comments were more directed at the calculation of what the fees should be on the resale.


----------



## EYL

Dean said:


> I think there are 2 issues here, what the fees are and who pays them.  My comments were more directed at the calculation of what the fees should be on the resale.



Got it.  Thanks.  In my case, I offered in December and closed in February (Feb UY).  100% of the previous years MF were paid for by the seller even though the points were banked and I got to use them.


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> I’ve begun to rethink how the economy will impact DVC prices, at least in the next 8-12 months.
> 
> We’re in the strangest economy, maybe ever?
> 
> Tens of millions of people have become unemployed or underemployed, many losing low wage jobs but many not, and these people are in A horrible personal economic situation.
> 
> Tens of millions more have huge anxiety about eventually being impacted.
> 
> BUT
> 
> We have this bizarre and uncharacteristic situation where many people, perhaps the majority of people, are stashing away more money than they’ve been able to for their entire lives. They have reasonably secure job (most people do), they haven’t been spending money on vacations, or fashion, or work clothes, or Fine dining, generally much at all. AND the government sent them a decent check this spring (and might send another?). So they are flush with cash and excited To live large when all this is over.
> 
> The first two groups may be selling DVC, but the last group is buying.
> 
> I don’t think we will reach tipping point where prices drop until most people start to take the big vacation and dine out and buy new shoes and generally start spending their excess cash again. At that point I do expect we will see supply exceed demand and prices fall. But it will be a while, it seems.


It is definitely a weird economy right now.  It will be interesting to see how deep and wide spread the damage to the economy will actually be.  My guess is Disney thinks the damage to the economy is deeper, more wide spread and will be more long lasting than most people think.  You don’t lay off 20% of the PEP employees if you believe things will be turning around in a meaningful way in six to twelve months.

When it comes to DVC specifically, how should we read the massive job cuts to DVC specifically?  I read that as Disney thinks on the direct side that business is going to be slow.


----------



## kerrylacherry

Dean said:


> It seems that all that specialize in DVC take this approach though some are more hardline than others.  It baffles me somewhat that they do because it's clear that DVC charges dues on a calendar year basis, NOT a UY basis.



Plus it changes based on the time of year. In my experience, at the start of August this year the 2020 MF were nonnegotiable to a lot of resale agents and therefore sellers, then all of a sudden at the end of August the listings changed to say seller pays 2020 MF. As if the agents are well aware the MF are based in calendar year, and they are using the MF to help boost the sale price for the seller and their commission in the first part of the year until it gets too close to closing in Nov/Dec.


----------



## CastAStone

Brianstl said:


> When it comes to DVC specifically, how should we read the massive job cuts to DVC specifically? I read that as Disney thinks on the direct side that business is going to be slow.


That’s how I read it. A lot of sold out resorts and 2nd contracts selling right now. That doesn’t require nearly the same staffing as trying to sell Riviera and *sigh* Aulani.


----------



## CastAStone

CastAStone said:


> That’s how I read it. A lot of sold out resorts and 2nd contracts selling right now. That doesn’t require nearly the same staffing as trying to sell Riviera and *sigh* Aulani.


With a moments more thought it strikes me that automating things, like initiating the add on process online and using transferred points online saves staff too. And based on those two changes rolling out in short order I suspect they’ve doubled down on automation and we’ll see more of it.


----------



## Where'sPiglet?

Also, they haven't been staffing the in-park and resort kiosks, or if they have, it's been far more limited than normal. 

They have been staffing several model rooms (one each at several resorts), so I wonder if we see them consolidating some of those. They may have been staffing the model rooms at DVC resorts that were getting guests that had been moved from closed cash resorts, so they may close some of the models.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Cabius said:


> Out of curiosity, are there brokers known for a stance one way or another?
> 
> I’m looking at submitting an offer on a Fidelity contract in the next week. My assumption has been that the seller pays (really already has paid) dues on banked 2019 and 2020 points, but I’m trying to grab as much intel as possible!


Fidelity is great.  We have made 4 offers with them and on 2 occasions they asked if we wanted to reimburse for member fees and we just said no thank you.  No pushback.  The other 2 times they didn’t even ask us about it.

Edit:  adding another comment/reply.  Yes!  We have never paid for banked points or member fees already paid.  2020 MF were paid last Jan 15.


----------



## Brianstl

CastAStone said:


> With a moments more thought it strikes me that automating things, like initiating the add on process online and using transferred points online saves staff too. And based on those two changes rolling out in short order I suspect they’ve doubled down on automation and we’ll see more of it.


How many people do you think actually are employed doing that?  Before the layoffs DVC employed 225 licensed sales agents/brokers in Florida according Florida’s DPBR.  I got to think that is the largest part of the DVC work force as things like reservations, maintenance, customer service and house cleaning are all contracted out to other Disney divisions. Most of those 225 have to be focused on new sales. I don’t know if you can effectively automate the new buying process in any way because a direct DVC purchase is an emotional purchase.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Derek and Marissa from www.dvcresalemarket.com were On the www.welcomehomepodcast.com recently and they discussed the DVC layoffs pretty in-depth. I need to listen again for more specifics, but they did mention that entire divisions were completely laid off, so I assume that it affected more than just the guides.


----------



## Dean

EYL said:


> Got it.  Thanks.  In my case, I offered in December and closed in February (Feb UY).  100% of the previous years MF were paid for by the seller even though the points were banked and I got to use them.


Well not 100% as the fees you paid in January covered 1 month of the 2019 points and 11 months of the 2020 points.  Still a fair deal given you got the points early in the UY and were able to use the points.  But it allows me to illustrate the very issue I was referring to with dues paid on a calendar year basis.  Had the UY been later in the year the affect would have skewed the deal more.


----------



## UtahDon

Honestly surprised there has not been more of a market downturn in general, and that it did not also extend to DVC which is obviously an unnecessary luxury purchase. Very unusual situation where for many COVID has zero effect on income, but for others it is devastating. Shows the resiliency of the market, but makes me wary wondering what is next.


----------



## davidl81

Where'sPiglet? said:


> Why do you think this? I'm curious.


Yeah that statement threw me off as well.  I can’t see anything shocking anyone on 2021 dues.  All owners know they are coming, and maybe some who pay it all upfront move to paying month to month?  We can for sure speculate what will happen next year, but it’s all a guess right now.  If the economy continues to recover the middle class will likely come away more or less unhurt and DVC prices won’t be effected.  We honestly  won’t know that till next year.  And to many other people’s point, a lot of people are saving a ton of money over this past six months (no vacations, no buying gas for transportation, no day care cost, etc).  So if you had maybe 10-15k extra laying around DVC resales May look good right now.


----------



## E2ME2

davidl81 said:


> Yeah that statement threw me off as well.  I can’t see anything shocking anyone on 2021 dues.  All owners know they are coming, and maybe some who pay it all upfront move to paying month to month?  We can for sure speculate what will happen next year, but it’s all a guess right now.  If the economy continues to recover the middle class will likely come away more or less unhurt and DVC prices won’t be effected.  We honestly  won’t know that till next year.  And to many other people’s point, a lot of people are saving a ton of money over this past six months (no vacations, no buying gas for transportation, no day care cost, etc).  So if you had maybe 10-15k extra laying around DVC resales May look good right now.


STOP! - I already bought an SSR add-on, and I'm in ROFR on a BCV add-on, 
and yes - it's because I was fortunate to remain 100% employed throughout COVID, and working remote 100%.
My gasoline bills went to virtually nothing, my car insurance was given a 15% credit through October, then - I turned in my leased vehicle (the lease was just fulfilled), 
but did not acquire another vehicle, as we've been getting by with one car, so my car insurance just got cut in half for the next 6 months.  
And now I also have way too much time to search for more DVC Resales! 
Oddly enough, list prices have seen an uptick, and ROFR has been active lately.....


----------



## Kickstart

Regarding MF...  

I recently closed on a Feb use year contract and paid 2020 fees.  Seller banking 2020 points was in the contract.

It seems fair to me, I have those points to use or rent in 2021.  Even with the extra points on the market I should be able to make a few dollars per point over the fees if I decide to rent.  Which, IMO is better than not having those points and saving on the fees.

I can understand the argument that there is less total time to use those points (versus if I closed earlier in the year), but I don't feel that significantly reduces their market value so asking for a significant proration from the buyer doesn't makes sense me.

If I was selling, unless it was too late to bank, I would expect the buyer to pay fees on unused points.


----------



## Sandisw

Kickstart said:


> Regarding MF...
> 
> I recently closed on a Feb use year contract and paid 2020 fees.  Seller banking 2020 points was in the contract.
> 
> It seems fair to me, I have those points to use or rent in 2021.  Even with the extra points on the market I should be able to make a few dollars per point over the fees if I decide to rent.  Which, IMO is better than not having those points and saving on the fees.
> 
> I can understand the argument that there is less total time to use those points (versus if I closed earlier in the year), but I don't feel that significantly reduces their market value so asking for a significant proration from the buyer doesn't makes sense me.
> 
> If I was selling, unless it was too late to bank, I would expect the buyer to pay fees on unused points.



If you were fine with covering the fees, that is all that matters,

But, telling buyers that if they get the points they should pay the fees isn’t really accurate because dues are paid per calendar year,

As mentioned,  when you buy with Disney direct, you get the points and do not pay the fees, except based on how many days are left in the year,

If I bought RIV today with my Dec UY, I’d get 2019 UY points and 2020 UY points and my MFs would only be only 2 1/2 months worth for 2020.

Again, everything resale is negotiable and it’s up to the buyer to decide what makes the deal a good one for them.


----------



## Cabius

Sandisw said:


> Again, everything resale is negotiable and it’s up to the buyer to decide what makes the deal a good one for them.



My thinking here is mostly that loaded contracts should already command a price premium. The seller has already paid the fees for 2020, so it’s not really “buyer pays fees“, but rather how much more you pay for a product that includes current-year points.


----------



## Sandisw

Cabius said:


> My thinking here is mostly that loaded contracts should already command a price premium. The seller has already paid the fees for 2020, so it’s not really “buyer pays fees“, but rather how much more you pay for a product that includes current-year points.



Most brokers though take that line and imply to buyers that MFs are due if you are getting points, regardless if the contract is loaded.

When I was selling last year,  my contract was a Dec UY and did not have all of its 2019 points and I had borrowed from 2020.  The brokers said that I would br expected to reimburse for the missing 2020 points Since buyer wasn’t getting the full set.

I politely informed them that since .I was selling in the fall I would not be paying any 2020 since the contract will be owned by someone else by then.

Of course, it sold within 2 weeks with the terms I stated, 

The point I was trying to make was simply that buyers need to understand how it works as I have seen posts where people who paid the dues on later in the year UYs came here shocked they got a bill in January as they thought when they paid the current year at closing, it covered them until the next UY started.


----------



## Kickstart

Sandisw said:


> If you were fine with covering the fees, that is all that matters,
> 
> But, telling buyers that if they get the points they should pay the fees isn’t really accurate because dues are paid per calendar year,
> 
> As mentioned,  when you buy with Disney direct, you get the points and do not pay the fees, except based on how many days are left in the year,
> 
> If I bought RIV today with my Dec UY, I’d get 2019 UY points and 2020 UY points and my MFs would only be only 2 1/2 months worth for 2020.
> 
> Again, everything resale is negotiable and it’s up to the buyer to decide what makes the deal a good one for them.


But you're not buying direct.

I agree that buyer's shouldn't be told they have to pay fees, as everything is negotiable. I just think it makes sense to pay the MF for unused points (assuming it's a useable amount and not close to expiration). Whether those unused points are valuable to the buyer or not, depends on their plans. 

I also don't think it makes sense to compare direct to resale, that's not apples to apples.  It's not like you'd ask for an additional discount because you didn't get a free ice cream or some other DVC direct swag.  The accurate comparison is to a contract with no current year points where you don't pay MF's.


----------



## Sandisw

Kickstart said:


> But you're not buying direct.
> 
> I agree that buyer's shouldn't be told they have to pay fees, as everything is negotiable. I just think it makes sense to pay the MF for unused points (assuming it's a useable amount and not close to expiration). Whether those unused points are valuable to the buyer or not, depends on their plans.
> 
> I also don't think it makes sense to compare direct to resale, that's not apples to apples.  It's not like you'd ask for an additional discount because you didn't get a free ice cream or some other DVC direct swag.  The accurate comparison is to a contract with no current year points where you don't pay MF's.



Like I said,  when you buy direct, you get a contract with all current UY points and beyond and don’t pay a full years of dues on them, unless you are buying in January. So, not sure why resale contracts that come with the same number of points should be a reason to reimburse sellers MFs if bought later in the year,

Any buyer who wants to reimburse a seller for fees, that is great.  MFs though are based on ownership at the resort. That is why we all pay in January, regardless of UY.

Again, resale allows one to negotiate.  I just bought a contract in June with 2018, 2019 and all 2020 points in it.  Normally, I’d have offered to split 2020 MFs since my ownership would be 6 months...I chose to reimburse all since it wasn’t worth losing the contract for $325.

But, it was the first contract I ever bought that I paid MFs that way, All the rest have always been based on calendar year.


----------



## kerrylacherry

Kickstart said:


> I also don't think it makes sense to compare direct to resale, that's not apples to apples.  It's not like you'd ask for an additional discount because you didn't get a free ice cream or some other DVC direct swag.  The accurate comparison is to a contract with no current year points where you don't pay MF's.



I disagree, however you got the points you're paying the same MFs, resale or direct. If you borrow all next year's points (in normal times), you don't pay $0 MF next year just because you have no points left to use. The MF are not based on points after the $pp calculation, Sandi's example of a direct sale just emphasizes that they are based on the calendar rather than when the points are used. In resale or direct, a buyer pays for the points, and the MF are a separate consideration.


----------



## Kickstart

kerrylacherry said:


> ... If you borrow all next year's points (in normal times), you don't pay $0 MF next year just because you have no points left to use. ..


Exactly, in your example, over the course of two years you've paid a MF on each point used.

The maintenance fee is per point.  It doesn't matter that DVC charges you in January. In the end  you're paying a MF on each point that you get, and each point has a real value which should not be pro-rated based when they were paid for. They should only be pro-rated based on remaining available "useable" value.

The accurate comparison is to another resale contract that has no remaining current use year points, not to a direct contract the DVC is able to sweeten with free or prorated points.  For instance:

August UY $100 pp AKV 100 point contract - 0 2020, 100 2021, 100 2022
vs
August UY $100 pp AKV 100 point contract - 100 2020, 100 2021, 100 2022

Seems to me it makes sense for the buyer to pay MF's on the second contract as it has more value... 100  more points of value compared to the first.  In fact, even with paying MF's the second contract is a better deal than the first, as you can easily rent those points for more than you paid in MF's.  I just don't see the logic in the argument that it's unreasonable for the buyer to pay MF's in this situation, when it's a better deal than not getting the points in the first place.

EDIT: corrected some typos


----------



## Dean

Kickstart said:


> But you're not buying direct.
> 
> I agree that buyer's shouldn't be told they have to pay fees, as everything is negotiable. I just think it makes sense to pay the MF for unused points (assuming it's a useable amount and not close to expiration). Whether those unused points are valuable to the buyer or not, depends on their plans.
> 
> I also don't think it makes sense to compare direct to resale, that's not apples to apples.  It's not like you'd ask for an additional discount because you didn't get a free ice cream or some other DVC direct swag.  The accurate comparison is to a contract with no current year points where you don't pay MF's.


Correct so the question becomes what's a sales incentive vs the technical component of what dues you're paying.  So let's say you buy 100 points with an August UY  and no points until August 21and close in Dec plus transferred completely in Dec.  Dues are then due in Jan and the buyer will be responsible as they now own the contract.  The dues you pay in Jan cover 7 months of the 2020 points which you did not get and 5 months of the 2021 points you will receive in August (or could borrow).  Were you to buy that same exact contract in the same situation retail you'd pay dues starting in August not as a sales incentive but because that's what dues would be applicable to your points.  Thus you overpaid on dues by 7/12 of the amount so you'd deduct that from your "savings" another areas.

As for comparing, of course one has to compare resale vs retail.  But that doesn't mean everything will line up in the same manner which is why I said one has to understand the variables then ultimately look at the overall situation.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Kickstart said:


> Exactly, in your example, over the course of two years you've paid a MF on each point used.
> 
> The maintenance fee is per point.  It doesn't matter that DVC charges you in January. In the end  you're paying a MF on each point that you get, and each point has a real value which should not be pro-rated based when they were paid for. They should only be pro-rated based on remaining available "useable" value.
> 
> The accurate comparison is to another resale contract that has no remaining current use year points, not to a direct contract the DVC is able to sweeten with free or prorated points.  For instance:
> 
> August UY $100 pp AKV 100 point contract - 0 2020, 100 2021, 100 2022
> vs
> August UY $100 pp AKV 100 point contract - 100 2020, 100 2021, 100 2022
> 
> Seems to me it makes sense for the buyer to pay MF's on the second contract as it has more value... 100  more points of value compared to the first.  In fact, even with paying MF's the second contract is a better deal than the first, as you can easily rent those points for more than you paid in MF's.  I just don't see the logic in the argument that it's unreasonable for the buyer to pay MF's in this situation, when it's a better deal than not getting the points in the first place.
> 
> EDIT: corrected some typos


Someone earlier in the thread brought up an interesting point.  Brokers would typically price that second contract at a higher price pp because it has more points. If the two contracts were priced exactly the same, then yes, I can see how it would be fair to ask for MF fees for 2020.  But if the price pp already factors in the extra points on the contract, is asking for MF from the buyer kind of like double dipping?


----------



## CarolMN

Count me with those who say it doesn't matter.  (The varying opinions make for an interesting discussion, though).   As so many have already posted, for resale, it's all negotiable.

Were I making an offer, I'd just figure the max I am willing to offer including dues and any adjustment (up or down) needed for a loaded or stripped contract.  Then I'd divide that amount by the number of points in the contract.  I'd assume I was paying dues for the current year points and closing.

In the end, all that matters to me is the total amount that actually comes out of my pocket, not the makeup of the offer.  YMMV


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Kickstart said:


> Exactly, in your example, over the course of two years you've paid a MF on each point used.
> 
> The maintenance fee is per point.  It doesn't matter that DVC charges you in January. In the end  you're paying a MF on each point that you get, and each point has a real value which should not be pro-rated based when they were paid for. They should only be pro-rated based on remaining available "useable" value.
> 
> The accurate comparison is to another resale contract that has no remaining current use year points, not to a direct contract the DVC is able to sweeten with free or prorated points.  For instance:
> 
> August UY $100 pp AKV 100 point contract - 0 2020, 100 2021, 100 2022
> vs
> August UY $100 pp AKV 100 point contract - 100 2020, 100 2021, 100 2022
> 
> Seems to me it makes sense for the buyer to pay MF's on the second contract as it has more value... 100  more points of value compared to the first.  In fact, even with paying MF's the second contract is a better deal than the first, as you can easily rent those points for more than you paid in MF's.  I just don't see the logic in the argument that it's unreasonable for the buyer to pay MF's in this situation, when it's a better deal than not getting the points in the first place.
> 
> EDIT: corrected some typos



This is one take on it.  But my take is I wouldn’t pay for MFs for which a seller has already paid.  And I would not deal with a broker who tried to force me to do so.  That is a dishonest broker.  It is fine for a broker to encourage me to do so, but for a broker to say buyer pays member fees, end of story?  That is a dishonest broker, end of story.  Not all points are valuable until you are sure you will be able to use them in a manner that is at your leisure.  Here is why “extra” points do not have intrinsic value to me:

1.  You have no idea exactly how long it will take to close.  In theory, about 60 days.  But many things can happen, and I have seen some weird cases where it has taken much, much longer.  Right now it seems to be taking 3-4 months.  You cannot book anything until points are in your dvc account.  Then you have to hope something is left to book.  As the process drags on, those points have less to no value.  In order for the buyer to even consider reimbursing the seller for already paid MF, the contract would need to discount the points on a future closing performance timetable.  When you buy points directly from Disney, you receive your points immediately, not so with resale.

2.  I cannot just vacation because I have extra points.  My world does not organize itself around dvc points.  Dvc points fit into my world.  If we have “extra” points from a resale contract that just closed, we may not be able to use them with our vacation schedule.  Our vacations are planned for a couple of years out.  That is why dvc works for us.  Dh has to put in for vacation over a year out, so that everyone at work gets a chance to go on vacation.  My schedule is a bit more flexible but still has to be considered.  We have different school calendar schedules for different kids to accommodate.   We can try to squeeze something short in but there is no guarantee that will happen.  

3.  We also plan our Disney travel around bi-annual pass purchases.  To use those points may make me incur extra costs.  It does sound funny, but a good lawyer would write those extra costs incurred into the contract.  Points that force me to reorganize my life have much less value to me than points I can use at my leisure.

4.  We do not rent points, so points have no rental value for us.   There is liability involved, and we try not to take unnecessary legal risks.  If a person rents my points and destroys the villa or worse, ultimately I am legally liable.  So, no thanks.  We think about it this way, if someone approached us and asked would you take on open ended legal liability if I pay you $1000-$5000 (or whatever it is you would make on the rental), we would say absolutely not.  If I reimburse the seller for MFs already paid, essentially the seller is getting the rental value of points without the legal liability.  In assuming I can make up the MFs by renting, a broker is pushing liability on the buyer and in order to reimburse MF, the contract should account the seller for that potential liability.  There is also no guarantee that if a buyer wanted to rent out the extra points that it would be possible.  The contract should account for that too.  

Obviously this is all personal preference, and if a buyer wants to pay MF, that is a perfectly legitimate position.  It is not legitimate, however, for a broker to say MF are non-negotiable across the board.  Maybe in the broker’s made up reality, but not in the real world.  And a broker who lives in an alternative reality is not a broker I would trust!


----------



## Lorana

I think ultimately it comes down to your preferences and what you’re willing to negotiate on, and the point of these discussions is to help everyone make better informed decisions on the prices they’re willing - and should be willing - to pay. 

That all said, I’m going to posit that MFs be looked at differently than some have suggested here. Because MFs actually have nothing to do with how many points you do or do not have available for use.

MFs are tied to points only because the number of points you have represents the _*size*_ of your ownership. And it is the size of your ownership that matters when you pay dues. Those dues are maintenance of the property, pure and simple, which you are responsible for based on the *length* (how long you’ve owned) and *size* (% of unit measured in # of points) of your ownership. That is why when you buy direct, you only pay a prorated amount of MFs based on when you bought, not how many points you have available.  Because you’ve only owned beginning at the moment you’ve bought. If you bought now, a Dec UY pays the same MFs as any other UY, even though they will have twice the number of points available to them as any other UY.

Because resale is open to negotiation, you can value or not value paying or not paying MFs however you want, and ultimately it comes down to what you and the seller are willing to agree on. But, I do think people generally misunderstand MFs, thinking they are fees for the points, and not fees for the maintenance of the property. Yes, there’s certainly a correlation as points represent your ownership interest and your usage in a given year, but banking, borrowing, or transferring points has no impact on how much you pay in MFs or when they are due. Banking points doesn’t defer MFs to the next year, just as borrowing doesn’t make them due sooner, because MFs are the annual costs for maintenance, taxes, and the like to run and maintain the resort. 

Personally, I’ve always tried to either negotiate a prorated amount of dues or I’ve deducted the dues cost from my price per point offer. If the seller counters with a higher amount, then I negotiate them paying dues. Once we hit mid-year I’m more aggressive in not paying dues given that I won’t have access to usage of the resort until points are in my account, and at that point by the time I get my points, the year will almost be over and I’ll have to pay next year’s dues.


----------



## zavandor

I think "who pays the MF" is a false problem.
I do think that a contract with current points is better than a contract without current points.
If two contracts are identical, one is stripped and the other has current year points, then I'd buy the second and I'd be happy to pay, in total, around $8 more for it (if I'm sure I can use the points). However don't let them trick you into paying more than you want.

If you offer for a contract $100pp and that is the maximum you're happy to pay for it, if the broker demands you to pay current year point, then counter offer with $92 and paying MF for 2020. Or if you know the broker requires to pay the current year MF, then offer $92 in the first place.
I guess requesting to pay the MF is just a way to increase the total money paid by the buyer (does the broker get paid a % of total price?). Just figure out how much you want to pay in total and stick to it.


Regarding 2021 MF, I have no idea what's going to happem.
In a resort like SSR, given that it has been closed for many weeks, I would expect the MF to go down considerably. However there are increased claning procedures, sanification gel to buy, PPE for the CM... who knows the impact for those.
For resorts that share infrastructure with a cash resort, anything can happen. At BWV, for example, the pools are shared amenities, will the DVC part continue to pay the same amount or the full costs of staffing and upkeep?


----------



## The Jackal

Starport Seven-Five said:


> They don't intentionally stop it with people on board.


On the Epcot line when a ECV or wheelchair is getting on or off at RIV they have to stop the line, due to the design of the station.   The other stations have a separate loading line.


----------



## Cabius

zavandor said:


> I think "who pays the MF" is a false problem.
> I do think that a contract with current points is better than a contract without current points.
> If two contracts are identical, one is stripped and the other has current year points, then I'd buy the second and I'd be happy to pay, in total, around $8 more for it (if I'm sure I can use the points). However don't let them trick you into paying more than you want.



This seems exactly right to me. And it's mostly a semantic debate at some point. But as a buyer, I'm not actually "paying MFs" - the seller already paid them! I'm perhaps "reimbursing seller for MFs" but really what I'm doing is paying a higher price for a more valuable product.

And that's totally fine and reasonable! A loaded contract is worth more than a stripped one. But I would want to negotiate transparently on those terms, not as a surprise tack-on at the end after we've agreed on price. Especially since loaded contracts are already priced higher per point to reflect that value!

_ETA: _I think the key here is transparency and being up-front in negotiations so you get a total price that is agreeable to all parties. I certainly appreciate the strong opinions on the subject!


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

To add to the subject of transparency... at least some of the broker sites include terms such as "buyer pays closing costs and 2020 MFs" in the listing. 

So, I think that kind of transparency is there for the most part.  Maybe not all brokers, though.  They shouldn't be adding that on after the price has been agreed to.  It should be disclosed up front and taken into account in calculating your offer.


----------



## Kickstart

we"reofftoneverland said:


> This is one take on it.  But my take is I wouldn’t pay for MFs for which a seller has already paid.  And I would not deal with a broker who tried to force me to do so.  That is a dishonest broker.  It is fine for a broker to encourage me to do so, but for a broker to say buyer pays member fees, end of story?  That is a dishonest broker, end of story.  Not all points are valuable until you are sure you will be able to use them in a manner that is at your leisure.  Here is why “extra” points do not have intrinsic value to me:
> 
> 1.  You have no idea exactly how long it will take to close.  In theory, about 60 days.  But many things can happen, and I have seen some weird cases where it has taken much, much longer.  Right now it seems to be taking 3-4 months.  You cannot book anything until points are in your dvc account.  Then you have to hope something is left to book.  As the process drags on, those points have less to no value.  In order for the buyer to even consider reimbursing the seller for already paid MF, the contract would need to discount the points on a future closing performance timetable.  When you buy points directly from Disney, you receive your points immediately, not so with resale.
> 
> 2.  I cannot just vacation because I have extra points.  My world does not organize itself around dvc points.  Dvc points fit into my world.  If we have “extra” points from a resale contract that just closed, we may not be able to use them with our vacation schedule.  Our vacations are planned for a couple of years out.  That is why dvc works for us.  Dh has to put in for vacation over a year out, so that everyone at work gets a chance to go on vacation.  My schedule is a bit more flexible but still has to be considered.  We have different school calendar schedules for different kids to accommodate.   We can try to squeeze something short in but there is no guarantee that will happen.
> 
> 3.  We also plan our Disney travel around bi-annual pass purchases.  To use those points may make me incur extra costs.  It does sound funny, but a good lawyer would write those extra costs incurred into the contract.  Points that force me to reorganize my life have much less value to me than points I can use at my leisure.
> 
> 4.  We do not rent points, so points have no rental value for us.   There is liability involved, and we try not to take unnecessary legal risks.  If a person rents my points and destroys the villa or worse, ultimately I am legally liable.  So, no thanks.  We think about it this way, if someone approached us and asked would you take on open ended legal liability if I pay you $1000-$5000 (or whatever it is you would make on the rental), we would say absolutely not.  If I reimburse the seller for MFs already paid, essentially the seller is getting the rental value of points without the legal liability.  In assuming I can make up the MFs by renting, a broker is pushing liability on the buyer and in order to reimburse MF, the contract should account the seller for that potential liability.  There is also no guarantee that if a buyer wanted to rent out the extra points that it would be possible.  The contract should account for that too.
> 
> Obviously this is all personal preference, and if a buyer wants to pay MF, that is a perfectly legitimate position.  It is not legitimate, however, for a broker to say MF are non-negotiable across the board.  Maybe in the broker’s made up reality, but not in the real world.  And a broker who lives in an alternative reality is not a broker I would trust!



100% Agree with every point you made.   I would say these all fall into the "... pro-rated based on remaining available "useable" value" category - to a given buyer .   Very logical negotiating points. 

And agreed, it's unacceptable for a broker to insists MF are non-negotiable across the board - that's an unprofessional intimidation/pressure technique, IMO.

Conversely, I think it's a convoluted negotiating point to say the seller should pay some, or all, of MF's just based on how far through the calendar year we are, because the fees are technically spent in the given calendar year.  I mean, that just seems down right silly for a Dec UY contract. So, if I was a seller I would not find the "MF's are for the calendar year" a convincing negotiating argument... whereas your statements above would be much more likely to influence me.  I suspect I'm not alone on this.

I think we're all in agreement that in the end it comes down to the total price you're willing to pay and how much you value any current use year points (or banked points into the next year) .  You have to do the math for your own needs and risk tolerance.


----------



## CastAStone

EM Lawrence said:


> Someone earlier in the thread brought up an interesting point.  Brokers would typically price that second contract at a higher price pp because it has more points. If the two contracts were priced exactly the same, then yes, I can see how it would be fair to ask for MF fees for 2020.  But if the price pp already factors in the extra points on the contract, is asking for MF from the buyer kind of like double dipping?


Yes.

But the current value of CY points (and in particular of banked points!) is much higher than the value of your 2030 points or your 2050 points, so it’s usually still a better deal to buy a loaded contract and pay the ~$6 up charge per year AND pay the MFs than it is to buy a stripped contract to avoid paying MFs.

This is particularly acute on a 2042 resort where a loaded contract could still have 23 years left while a stripped one could have as few as 20.


----------



## Heather07438

Kickstart said:


> I think we're all in agreement that in the end it comes down to the total price you're willing to pay and how much you value any current use year points


I agree   It mostly will depend on the total cost, and I'm going to determine the value of any points with prepaid MFs by considering their potential risk or inflexibility.


----------



## Sandisw

EM Lawrence said:


> Someone earlier in the thread brought up an interesting point.  Brokers would typically price that second contract at a higher price pp because it has more points. If the two contracts were priced exactly the same, then yes, I can see how it would be fair to ask for MF fees for 2020.  But if the price pp already factors in the extra points on the contract, is asking for MF from the buyer kind of like double dipping?



MFs are to cover operation of the resort,  While they are calculated based on how many points you own, it is not an extra fee on the points, but rather to cover expenses, including taxes, on the building,Merck.

So, if someone owns the contract for 6 months of the year, they are paying for the costs associated with running the resorts, regardless of whether they use it.

It is why Disney can’t legally charge buyers fees prior to signing a contract to own.

I do agree that contracts fully loaded build in the price for it So sellers should also expect reimbursement are certainly getting more than others would,

But, as mentioned, it’s all the way people want to look at it and be happy with the final outcome,


----------



## Brian Noble

EM Lawrence said:


> But on the flip side, all those people who are not eating out or buying shoes or buying new clothes are impacting the bottom line of a company somewhere that normally would have made that sale. And there will eventually be ripple effects from all of that lack of spending.


Yep. About a year ago I had a conversation with a mentor who said something that stuck with me. We were talking about the relationships between technology, productivity, and cost, when he said: "Every time you reduce costs anywhere, you are ultimately taking that out of someone's paycheck."* It took me a while to wrap my head around that, but once I did, a lot of things clicked for me.

_Not spending_ is the same as reducing costs. It is coming out of someone's paycheck somewhere, they in turn will spend less, and so on. It's the multiplier effect in reverse. It will take time, but it seems sure to happen---the "low wage" economy is not separate from the "middle class" economy. It's all one thing, and it's all connected.

*: You often don't think of entrepreneurs worrying about things like this. I've found that the ones I admire almost always do---and I usually don't learn of their opinions on such matters until long after I've formed an opinion of them. As another mentor puts it: "One thing I've learned in these later years of my career is that building a business is much more about the people you meet, the lasting friendships you make. That revenues and profits follow is a pleasant byproduct but it's not the reason to work as hard as we do."

https://twitter.com/menloprez


----------



## Memorymakerfor4

I wonder if GC will take a temporary dip on the resale market, considering today's announcement. There's a real possibility DL won't open until 2021. Yes you can stay at the other resorts, but it would be a tough pill to swallow to pay MFs for a place you couldn't stay at for the next several months.


----------



## Lorana

Memorymakerfor4 said:


> I wonder if GC will take a temporary dip on the resale market, considering today's announcement.


What announcement?

[EDITED TO ADD] Oh, do you mean the reopening guidelines?
https://www.latimes.com/business/st...land-california-theme-parks-reopen-guidelines
Hmmm, I have a VGC contract in ROFR right now, but I wasn't planning on visiting until likely 2022 at the earliest, but even so, I do wonder what this means in terms of dues for next year and whether they plan to keep the resort shut until the park is opened. 

Given how MY luck works, though, if I pass ROFR, then you can pretty much guarantee the resale prices for VGC will tank.  ;-)


----------



## davidl81

Lorana said:


> What announcement?
> 
> [EDITED TO ADD] Oh, do you mean the reopening guidelines?
> https://www.latimes.com/business/st...land-california-theme-parks-reopen-guidelines
> Hmmm, I have a VGC contract in ROFR right now, but I wasn't planning on visiting until likely 2022 at the earliest, but even so, I do wonder what this means in terms of dues for next year and whether they plan to keep the resort shut until the park is opened.
> 
> Given how MY luck works, though, if I pass ROFR, then you can pretty much guarantee the resale prices for VGC will tank.  ;-)


VGC won’t “tank”.  It’s such a small overall amount of points and such a high demand that it will never tank short of DL being closed forever.  Could it drop $10 or so, maybe, but it won’t tank in value.


----------



## DisneyOutsider

Hopefully DL will be fine long term, but it definitely won't be the same there for a long time once it's finally able to open. So sad


----------



## DarthMBD

Does anyone think Animal Kingdom resale prices will drop any time soon?


----------



## davidl81

DarthMBD said:


> Does anyone think Animal Kingdom resale prices will drop any time soon?


A lot of people think they will.  But there is no actual data to support they will drop so it’s kinda a hope.


----------



## poofyo101

DarthMBD said:


> Does anyone think Animal Kingdom resale prices will drop any time soon?


I personally do not.


----------



## limace

But hardly any have been bought back, so I’d be bidding low and waiting for someone to sell. I did see a trend down from last winter if you look back on lowest passed over the fall and summer compared to last fall and winter.


----------



## Dean

DarthMBD said:


> Does anyone think Animal Kingdom resale prices will drop any time soon?


I think they will all drop relatively speaking but it's difficult to say how soon.  Maybe 1-2 years.  And likely not a ton but it's difficult to say.  I wouldn't wait to buy in if hoping for a price drop if it makes sense otherwise to buy now.


----------



## LoveMugsNPins

I feel like resale prices will be going up.  With Reflections on hold/cancelled it seems like DVC will be taking more low price contracts with ROFR to sell sold out resorts.


----------



## EM Lawrence

Its all about supply and demand.  If more AKL gets listed the price will go down.  If supply stays low and demand is high, prices won’t drop.  If you can wait until December/January, I’d at least wait that long.  I don’t think there is much risk that prices will rise much between now and then, but there is a real possibility they will come down.  Traditional wisdom is that more people list DVC contracts when the dues come out in December.


----------



## AvidDisReader

Supply and Demand yes, but AK has nice size rooms, incredible ambience, and a great point chart. So it may drop, but probably not a whole lot.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

DarthMBD said:


> Does anyone think Animal Kingdom resale prices will drop any time soon?


Yes, I would bid them down.

Fidelity has some that have been sitting for at least a month and are waiting to be bid down.  Obviously they are not selling at list.


----------



## DarthMBD

AvidDisReader said:


> Supply and Demand yes, but AK has nice size rooms, incredible ambience, and a great point chart. So it may drop, but probably not a whole lot.


Agreed! We love the resort! Our favorite!


----------



## lovethesun12

EM Lawrence said:


> Its all about supply and demand.  If more AKL gets listed the price will go down.  If supply stays low and demand is high, prices won’t drop.  If you can wait until December/January, I’d at least wait that long.  I don’t think there is much risk that prices will rise much between now and then, but there is a real possibility they will come down.  Traditional wisdom is that more people list DVC contracts when the dues come out in December.


I agree. For what it's worth, I've been tracking inventory (somewhat) since covid started. Listings on a few major sites for AKL has doubled since August. Not that it really means much since inventory was really low before and is still relatively low now, but listings do seem to be increasing for that specific resort.


----------



## Brianstl

Interesting take with points brought up before on here.

https://www.disneytouristblog.com/d...ed-christmas-availability-2021-point-surplus/


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Brianstl said:


> Interesting take with points brought up before on here.
> 
> https://www.disneytouristblog.com/d...ed-christmas-availability-2021-point-surplus/


Wow, that’s a really good blog.  Thanks for the link.


----------



## RanDIZ

lovethesun12 said:


> I agree. For what it's worth, I've been tracking inventory (somewhat) since covid started. Listings on a few major sites for AKL has doubled since August. Not that it really means much since inventory was really low before and is still relatively low now, but listings do seem to be increasing for that specific resort.



Likewise, I’ve been following for a year and have seen AKV go from low $100’s up to the $140’s. Currently trending around $130’s now. I’m looking to add-on at CCV or even POLY, but might hold out until end of year as I could see prices drop when dues come and greater uncertainty with economy.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

RanDIZ said:


> Likewise, I’ve been following for a year and have seen AKV go from low $100’s up to the $140’s. Currently trending around $130’s now. I’m looking to add-on at CCV or even POLY, but might hold out until end of year as I could see prices drop when dues come and greater uncertainty with economy.


$140s?!  No way would I pay that.  Ya’ll there are four on fidelity with extra banked points listed at $107, $107, $108, $109.  There are another three listed for under $120.  They have a couple in mid one twenties.  I don’t know where everyone on here is shopping but don’t overpay for AKV.  You can usually take $10 off of list which puts you in high $90s!!


----------



## RanDIZ

we"reofftoneverland said:


> $140s?!  No way would I pay that.  Ya’ll there are four on fidelity with extra banked points listed at $107, $107, $108, $109.  There are another three listed for under $120.  They have a couple in mid one twenties.  I don’t know where everyone on here is shopping but don’t overpay for AKV.  You can usually take $10 off of list which puts you in high $90s!!



Oh hell no would I pay that! Now selling at the highs, yes I’d entertain it. I grabbed a 100 pt full point contract starting 2020 for $109 back in Jan. which was asking $117. So I was happy.


----------



## emilymad

Brianstl said:


> Interesting take with points brought up before on here.
> 
> https://www.disneytouristblog.com/d...ed-christmas-availability-2021-point-surplus/



Really good points made in that article especially about the demand for rooms in 2022.

We have been thinking about adding on but we have paused that thought due to we don't know what the economy is going to do.  I am less confidant about my job now then I was three months ago and I don't work in a sector that has been impacted by the shutdowns.


----------



## DarthMBD

we"reofftoneverland said:


> $140s?!  No way would I pay that.  Ya’ll there are four on fidelity with extra banked points listed at $107, $107, $108, $109.  There are another three listed for under $120.  They have a couple in mid one twenties.  I don’t know where everyone on here is shopping but don’t overpay for AKV.  You can usually take $10 off of list which puts you in high $90s!!


Thank you for sharing!


----------



## DisneyOutsider

With the near-complete obliteration of live entertainment at the parks, it's now becoming clear that WDW will never be the same again. Even if they wanted to return it to its former glory, it will take a very long time to recover all of the blood in the streets right now and institutional knowledge that is now possibly lost forever.

I think it's possible that once DVC owners make their return to the parks, the value of DVC points may become tarnished in the eyes of many of these owners who fear that their vacation spot has become just a local theme park on steroids. I'm not saying all hope is lost... but you really have to squint hard to see the path forward from here if the live entertainment was a big draw for you.


----------



## CarolMN

DisneyOutsider said:


> I think it's possible that once DVC owners make their return to the parks, the value of DVC points may become tarnished in the eyes of many of these owners who fear that their vacation spot has become just a local theme park on steroids. I'm not saying all hope is lost... but you really have to squint hard to see the path forward from here if the live entertainment was a big draw for you.


This makes me very sad.  I really, really hope you are wrong!


----------



## TinkB278

CarolMN said:


> This makes me very sad.  I really, really hope you are wrong!


I hope so too. I just keep believing that once Covid is a thing of the past people want to start traveling like never before which boosts the travel industry. I know I’m itching to do some major traveling once things subside.


----------



## Dean

DisneyOutsider said:


> With the near-complete obliteration of live entertainment at the parks, it's now becoming clear that WDW will never be the same again. Even if they wanted to return it to its former glory, it will take a very long time to recover all of the blood in the streets right now and institutional knowledge that is now possibly lost forever.
> 
> I think it's possible that once DVC owners make their return to the parks, the value of DVC points may become tarnished in the eyes of many of these owners who fear that their vacation spot has become just a local theme park on steroids. I'm not saying all hope is lost... but you really have to squint hard to see the path forward from here if the live entertainment was a big draw for you.


I think long term things will be OK but I doubt they will ever be anywhere near the same either for DVC or the parks.  But if they are to be roughly 80-85% of the people who are likely to visit would have either have had to have had either Covid the disease or the vaccine.  And I suspect it's likely in a few years they will require either vaccine or proof of a positive antibody to attend a park.


----------



## DisneyOutsider

CarolMN said:


> This makes me very sad.  I really, really hope you are wrong!


Nobody hopes I'm wrong more than me..

But there's really no arguing that the WDW experience will never be the same after the complete purge of talent that just occurred. WDW was my escape.. now I'm looking for other things to escape from the thought of what is occuring at WDW right now. What a shame.


----------



## Lorana

DisneyOutsider said:


> Nobody hopes I'm wrong more than me..
> 
> But there's really no arguing that the WDW experience will never be the same after the complete purge of talent that just occurred. WDW was my escape.. now I'm looking for other things to escape from the thought of what is occuring at WDW right now. What a shame.


I like to hold out the hope that while it may never be the same, that when it returns, Disney goes over the top in trying to make it a unique experience in order to draw the people who want an escape.  It may be years, of course, but I'm hoping it will be *better* and that maybe all of this will reduce the "nickel and diming" that was happening, and get us back to the "wow" factor that made me fall in love with Disney all those many long years ago.


----------



## Lorrie7249

CarolMN said:


> This makes me very sad.  I really, really hope you are wrong!




me too


----------



## TCRAIG

FWIW - WDW of the 1970’s was nothing like the 80’s and the 80’s were nothing like the 90’s - etc.  it’s always evolving, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse...2020/21 is definitely a strange time but I have no doubt that this too shall pass and WDW will continue to add and remove experiences for decades to come.  We just returned from a week long trip 2 weeks ago - we had a fabulous time...


----------



## Cabius

It sure feels like WDW will “never be the same” but then I remembered going in January with a friend who hadn’t been in 10 -15 years.

He was shocked by the crowds and the short park hours, as he remembered when the park was open until midnight or later on a regular basis. Everything was more crowded, more rushed, and shockingly more expensive.

I don’t know how much of those memories are true and how much is romanticization of the past. I do know that he still had a great time. Sometimes it feels like everything just gets worse and more expensive - but we keep going and we keep paying!

When all is said and done, I expect to miss many things that are gone forever, to be excited about new things that replace them, and to be relieved by the return of some old favorites. 

I’m sure I’ll keep bemoaning as things continue to get more crowded and more expensive, as every new hotel is just a generic luxe snoozefest (at least in concept art), as up-charge events proliferate, and as the small magical touches are sacrificed for more headliner attractions that nobody actually gets to ride.

But hey, I’m a WDW fan. It’s what we do. I’ll still keep going, Lord help me. Lord help us all.


----------



## DisneyOutsider

TCRAIG said:


> FWIW - WDW of the 1970’s was nothing like the 80’s and the 80’s were nothing like the 90’s - etc.  it’s always evolving, sometimes for the better, sometimes for the worse...2020/21 is definitely a strange time but I have no doubt that this too shall pass and WDW will continue to add and remove experiences for decades to come.  We just returned from a week long trip 2 weeks ago - we had a fabulous time...


I would say this is an over-simplification. What just happened is completely unprecedented in the history of WDW.

Another sobering fact.. If Disney wanted to resume even a single fireworks show right now, they wouldn't have the crew necessary to do it. Poof... gone. They'll hire new crews when they're ready for pyro again, but it will come at a great cost to quality and morale.


----------



## Lorana

Cabius said:


> It sure feels like WDW will “never be the same” but then I remembered going in January with a friend who hadn’t been in 10 -15 years.
> 
> He was shocked by the crowds and the short park hours, as he remembered when the park was open until midnight or later on a regular basis. Everything was more crowded, more rushed, and shockingly more expensive.
> 
> I don’t know how much of those memories are true and how much is romanticization of the past. I do know that he still had a great time. Sometimes it feels like everything just gets worse and more expensive - but we keep going and we keep paying!
> 
> When all is said and done, I expect to miss many things that are gone forever, to be excited about new things that replace them, and to be relieved by the return of some old favorites.
> 
> I’m sure I’ll keep bemoaning as things continue to get more crowded and more expensive, as every new hotel is just a generic luxe snoozefest (at least in concept art), as up-charge events proliferate, and as the small magical touches are sacrificed for more headliner attractions that nobody actually gets to ride.
> 
> But hey, I’m a WDW fan. It’s what we do. I’ll still keep going, Lord help me. Lord help us all.


Well... he's not necessarily wrong.  The crowds are much more significant in the last few years than they were 10-15 years ago (and I have tons of pictures to prove it).  When we went with our kids when they were little, the parks were regularly open to midnight or later, and you could pretty much guarantee low crowds in the evening, and early morning.  We'd often get up, go morning to early afternoon, go back to hotels for naps, then go out for dinner and hit the parks again until we were ready to collapse.  We loved the evenings for the sparse crowds, especially as those "extra hours" were resort guests only and much less crowded (AND FREE).  And they had great things like the ice cream social with characters that went by the wayside (and we won't even talk about the tragedy of closing the Adventurer's Club!).  We had found that over time, many of the things we loved became "pay extra for" which definitely took away from the experience, and we realized that to have the same experiences that we did when our kids were little, we'd need to pay a LOT of extra money for those experiences.  And that's on top of how crazy high ticket and hotel prices had raised over the last 10-15 years.  

That said, I love Disney.  Obviously.  That's why we became DVC!  But I am hoping that there's a silver lining to all of this, that maybe once we're past the pandemic, Disney will choose to focus back on the experience, and less on what feels like milking customers for all the money they can.

I hate feeling like I'm complaining, or that I'm old curmudgeon, but much as I love Disney, I do miss how much effort they put into wowing *everyone* who came to Disney, not just those with a large purse.


----------



## sethschroeder

AvidDisReader said:


> Supply and Demand yes, but AK has nice size rooms, incredible ambience, and a great point chart. So it may drop, but probably not a whole lot.



Its just the cheapest passable resorts out of DVC when lining them up. People will try to defend OKW/SSR that is fine but AKV gets a pass on its location simply because its really the best stand alone resort.

Personally what I think is propping up AKV though is that SSR/OKW prices have not went down as much based on Disney buying a bunch back. AKV is related to a buffer baked in to SSR/OKW.

I expected a bunch of buy back leading in to the direct benefit increase but we will see how much that continues over the next 1-2  months.


----------



## we"reofftoneverland

Lorana said:


> Well... he's not necessarily wrong.  The crowds are more significantly in the last few years than they were 10-15 years ago (and I have tons of pictures to prove it).  When we went with our kids when they were little, the parks were regularly open to midnight or later, and you could pretty much guarantee late crowds in the evening.  We'd often get up, go morning to early afternoon, go back to hotels and for naps, then go out for dinner and hit the parks again until we were ready to collapse.  We loved the evenings for the sparse crowds, especially as those "extra hours" were resort guests only and much less crowded (AND FREE).  And they had great things like the ice cream social with characters that went by the wayside (and we won't even talk about the tragedy of closing the Adventurer's Club!).  We had found that over time, many of the things we loved became "pay extra for" which definitely took away from the experience, and we realized that to have the same experiences that we did when our kids were little, we'd need to pay a LOT of extra money for those experiences.  And that's on top of how crazy high ticket and hotel prices had raised over the last 10-15 years.
> 
> That said, I love Disney.  Obviously.  That's why we became DVC!  But I am hoping that there's a silver lining to all of this, that maybe once we're past the pandemic, Disney will choose to focus back on the experience, and less on what feels like milking customers for all the money they can.
> 
> I hate feeling like I'm complaining, or that I'm old curmudgeon, but much as I love Disney, I do miss how much effort they put into wowing *everyone* who came to Disney, not just those with a large purse.


This is the Disney we know too.  They stopped the late hours pretty recently actually.  Maybe 5 years ago when they introduced the paid events?  It used to be open to like 2am sometimes for extra magic hours (free for hotel guests).  My dh hated it!!! Because I would drag him around trying to get in a “last” ride.  He would say, what is wrong with you?  Aren’t you tired?!


----------



## davidl81

sethschroeder said:


> Its just the cheapest passable resorts out of DVC when lining them up. People will try to defend OKW/SSR that is fine but AKV gets a pass on its location simply because its really the best stand alone resort.
> 
> Personally what I think is propping up AKV though is that SSR/OKW prices have not went down as much based on Disney buying a bunch back. AKV is related to a buffer baked in to SSR/OKW.
> 
> I expected a bunch of buy back leading in to the direct benefit increase but we will see how much that continues over the next 1-2  months.


I think you really kinda hit the nail on the head with AKV cost versus SSR/OKW cost.  If we are being honest SSR resale is probably 80% just for SAP.  And AKV is the "next best stand alone resort".  So it makes sense that it gets a $10-$15 premium on SSR.  And how SSR prices have increased up, so have AKV prices.


----------



## E2ME2

sethschroeder said:


> Its just the cheapest passable resorts out of DVC when lining them up. People will try to defend OKW/SSR that is fine but AKV gets a pass on its location simply because its really the best stand alone resort.
> 
> Personally what I think is propping up AKV though is that SSR/OKW prices have not went down as much based on Disney buying a bunch back. AKV is related to a buffer baked in to SSR/OKW.
> 
> I expected a bunch of buy back leading in to the direct benefit increase but we will see how much that continues over the next 1-2  months.


It's still so unpredictable.  There had been a lengthy ROFR pause, followed by some SSR buybacks of as high as $104.
Then today there was a fracture in one of the flood gates, and lots of us received ROFR Waivers, including an SSR contract at $97.
I will keep stalking the boards between now & February, as it's usually a good time for bargains with folks wanting to divest themselves of unwanted/unneeded points
before MFs are due in January.


----------



## CastAStone

Brianstl said:


> Interesting take with points brought up before on here.
> 
> https://www.disneytouristblog.com/d...ed-christmas-availability-2021-point-surplus/


Extremely good article and honestly a must read for anyone thinking of buying in for the first time right now.

I don’t agree with him that everyone should wait, but everyone should seriously consider the reasons he lays out.


----------



## mamaofsix

CastAStone said:


> Extremely good article and honestly a must read for anyone thinking of buying in for the first time right now.
> 
> I don’t agree with him that everyone should wait, but everyone should seriously consider the reasons he lays out.


Great article.  Definitely echos what our family is feeling.  We are looking to be first time DVC buyers (resale), and are definitely not comfortable buying right now.  Will wait at least a year or two and see what happens.  

I had hoped to buy before a planned trip in Spring 2022, but with so many onsite perks removed, it's likely more of an advantage for us to rent a big house offsite.


----------



## E2ME2

CastAStone said:


> Extremely good article and honestly a must read for anyone thinking of buying in for the first time right now.
> 
> I don’t agree with him that everyone should wait, but everyone should seriously consider the reasons he lays out.


The DVC sales trends have always had their ups & downs.  This year has been an anomaly, and hopefully normalcy will return soon.  
I've bought 2 resale contracts in the midst of COVID, taking advantage of price point on one, and size/use year on the other.  
If prices tank at year-end, and ROFR continues to lean favorably towards waivers, I may buy some more.
I don't know how I'd feel if I were a first-time DVC buyer, however.  Things are certainly changing at Disney, as they are world-wide, but our long-term goals are still in tact, and being in Orlando in the "Winter" is still high on our list. Hopefully buyers that have found their way to the resale market have already done some research, and I would agree to include this article in the "read before you buy" category.


----------



## lovethesun12

CastAStone said:


> Extremely good article and honestly a must read for anyone thinking of buying in for the first time right now.
> 
> I don’t agree with him that everyone should wait, but everyone should seriously consider the reasons he lays out.


I agree. I wonder if it would make more sense if Disney lifted the restriction on borrowing for the short term. If many are banking their points into 2021/2022, it makes sense (to me) to allow borrowing for current reservations to use up those points and then reintroduce the restriction if necessary.


----------



## Dean

lovethesun12 said:


> I agree. I wonder if it would make more sense if Disney lifted the restriction on borrowing for the short term. If many are banking their points into 2021/2022, it makes sense (to me) to allow borrowing for current reservations to use up those points and then reintroduce the restriction if necessary.


I suspect they're trying to allow members to use up points they would lose otherwise and spread out the impact of the recent months over the next few years.


----------



## lovethesun12

Dean said:


> I suspect they're trying to allow members to use up points they would lose otherwise and spread out the impact of the recent months over the next few years.


Yes that was the plan but there's still lots of availability in the near future. So it doesn't seem to be working. If they lifted it for awhile it might help, and then they could restrict again if necessary.


----------



## BruinEd03

Dean said:


> I suspect they're trying to allow members to use up points they would lose otherwise and spread out the impact of the recent months over the next few years.



They should let members borrow all of their points if the stay is within 21 days.  It might get people to add on days at the end or beginning of their stay.  This would reduce the impact for most members as the only ones really booking 21 days out are people who already have reservations.  Also, with airlines generally allowing flexibility for changing dates this would allow for many to take advantage of this.  This can help reduce the pent up points.


----------



## Sandisw

BruinEd03 said:


> They should let members borrow all of their points if the stay is within 21 days.  It might get people to add on days at the end or beginning of their stay.  This would reduce the impact for most members as the only ones really booking 21 days out are people who already have reservations.  Also, with airlines generally allowing flexibility for changing dates this would allow for many to take advantage of this.  This can help reduce the pent up points.



But, how do they ensure that someone doesn't borrow more to book a stay in those 21 days and then goes in and changes it to later to work around the rule?

People are going to lose points whether its now or in a few years. I agree that if they could find a way to let someone book a short term trip that can’t be changed, itd be nice,

But then you are talking potentially major changes to many rules that may or may not be legal. At least now, the rule is consistent and applies to everyone.


----------



## BruinEd03

Sandisw said:


> But, how do they ensure that someone doesn't borrow more to book a stay in those 21 days and then goes in and changes it to later to work around the rule?
> 
> People are going to lose points whether its now or in a few years. I agree that if they could find a way to let someone book a short term trip that can’t be changed, itd be nice,
> 
> But then you are talking potentially major changes to many rules that may or may not be legal. At least now, the rule is consistent and applies to everyone.



Under 21 days, aren't the points put in holding? I would think that that would be a huge deterrent.  I'm sure people could gamble that Disney waives it, but that's a huge risk.


----------



## lovethesun12

BruinEd03 said:


> They should let members borrow all of their points if the stay is within 21 days.  It might get people to add on days at the end or beginning of their stay.  This would reduce the impact for most members as the only ones really booking 21 days out are people who already have reservations.  Also, with airlines generally allowing flexibility for changing dates this would allow for many to take advantage of this.  This can help reduce the pent up points.


These are my thoughts too. What difference would lifting the restriction entirely make? That article makes complete sense to me; I think 2022 will be the year of the point problem.

People outside the USA cannot visit until border restrictions are lifted, which will probably happen when a vaccine is available. So far, best case scenario is it's widely available by spring in the USA, it will be later in Canada (by a few months). But that is too short a time for people who have to book trips far in advance and also want to see how everything unfolds rather than jumping into travel. You will see those people banking points to 2022.

The fact WDW has been laying off so many just makes me think they are also skeptical about 2021. So it just makes sense to me that if attendance is weaker than usual now (I could book a week over Easter in a boardwalk studio) it's time to lift borrowing restrictions until that changes.


----------



## Dean

BruinEd03 said:


> They should let members borrow all of their points if the stay is within 21 days.  It might get people to add on days at the end or beginning of their stay.  This would reduce the impact for most members as the only ones really booking 21 days out are people who already have reservations.  Also, with airlines generally allowing flexibility for changing dates this would allow for many to take advantage of this.  This can help reduce the pent up points.


I also suspect they don't want full capacity at the present time. We're  here now and talking to several of the guides I get that sense.  Those with points into the future will have opportunities to use them later, those with points that will expire soon, not so much.  They could have restricted borrowing completely.  I suspect they were trying to strike a balance.  But if it's important, I'd talk to member services and if necessary, corporate.


----------



## davidl81

Dean said:


> I also suspect they don't want full capacity at the present time. We're  here now and talking to several of the guides I get that sense.  Those with points into the future will have opportunities to use them later, those with points that will expire soon, not so much.  They could have restricted borrowing completely.  I suspect they were trying to strike a balance.  But if it's important, I'd talk to member services and if necessary, corporate.


I think you are right.  They very much do not want full DVC capacity right now.  But they have to keep all of the rooms open to book.  I would love to see how many points are just being lost right now by people who are less involved than people on this board.


----------



## Dean

davidl81 said:


> I think you are right.  They very much do not want full DVC capacity right now.  But they have to keep all of the rooms open to book.  I would love to see how many points are just being lost right now by people who are less involved than people on this board.


Probably a lot.


----------



## E2ME2

davidl81 said:


> I think you are right.  They very much do not want full DVC capacity right now.  But they have to keep all of the rooms open to book.  I would love to see how many points are just being lost right now by people who are less involved than people on this board.





Dean said:


> Probably a lot.



I agree - & thinking that contributed to us getting our wait-list at BWV.
We have never gotten a wait-list request fulfilled before, so it was exciting and we are tickled, 
but I hope it did not come at the expense of someone else forfeiting their points.


----------



## Dean

E2ME2 said:


> I agree - & thinking that contributed to us getting our wait-list at BWV.
> We have never gotten a wait-list request fulfilled before, so it was exciting and we are tickled,
> but I hope it did not come at the expense of someone else forfeiting their points.


The reality is that with all the down time and reduced occupancy, that time is lost forever and since DVC is designed to run at full capacity, it is inevitable that a proportional amount of points will be lost.  Owning a timeshare is exactly like owning a condo in many ways including the fact that owners pay for the management and upkeep even when closed as well as the fact that downtime cannot be recovered.  Thus it's inevitable that a lot of points will be lost and those owners still have to pay the fees on those points as they should.


----------



## CarolMN

Dean said:


> The reality is that with all the down time and reduced occupancy, that time is lost forever and since DVC is designed to run at full capacity, it is inevitable that a proportional amount of points will be lost.  Owning a timeshare is exactly like owning a condo in many ways including the fact that owners pay for the management and upkeep even when closed as well as the fact that downtime cannot be recovered.  Thus it's inevitable that a lot of points will be lost and those owners still have to pay the fees on those points as they should.


We should remember that a lot of the lost points belonged to Disney/DVD.  They decided not to use points they owned so that members could have extra time to use banked points from 2018.  Some were allowed to bank 2019 points past the usual deadline.  They didn't have to do that.  Without that decision, many more if us would have lost (will lose ) points.

It's going to take a few years to squeeze out the excess points now in the system.  I think we will see it more at the 7th month window as more members book their homes during the priority period.  2022 will e worse than 2021, IMO.


----------



## Dean

CarolMN said:


> We should remember that a lot of the lost points belonged to Disney/DVD.  They decided not to use points they owned so that members could have extra time to use banked points from 2018.  Some were allowed to bank 2019 points past the usual deadline.  They didn't have to do that.  Without that decision, many more if us would have (will have ) lost points.
> 
> It's going to take a few years to squeeze out the excess points now in the system.  I think we will see it more at the 7th month window as more members book their homes during the priority period.  2022 will e worse than 2021, IMO.


On a % basis I suspect the DVD numbers are relatively small but they will certainly help some.  I too suspect 2022 will be worse unless they limit banking as well.


----------



## CarolMN

Dean said:


> On a % basis I suspect the DVD numbers are relatively small but they will certainly help some.  I too suspect 2022 will be worse unless they limit banking as well.


Don't think they will limit banking as that will help to spread the glut over a longer period of time and that would be less onerous to Members than trying to get the glut over with quickly.  JMMO.  YMMV.


----------



## Cabius

CarolMN said:


> Don't think they will limit banking as that will help to spread the glut over a longer period of time and that would be less onerous to Members than trying to get the glut over with quickly.  JMMO.  YMMV.


So you’re saying they are trying to Flatten the Curve?

(I’ll see myself out.)


----------



## gisele2

Cabius said:


> So you’re saying they are trying to Flatten the Curve?
> 
> (I’ll see myself out.)


This idea  seems to be fashionable at the moment.


----------



## Dean

CarolMN said:


> Don't think they will limit banking as that will help to spread the glut over a longer period of time and that would be less onerous to Members than trying to get the glut over with quickly.  JMMO.  YMMV.


I doubt they will but it would likely be a good choice.  Personally I'm a rip the bandaid off type of person but the reality is that spreading this out likely lessens the total blow when looked at in total.


----------



## RoseGold

Disney/the finance companies will be in much better shape when they can foreclose all these delinquent accounts.  They might be over a year delinquent by the time they can foreclose again.  That's why ROFR is just out of control right now.

When Disney starts foreclosing again, that's when I'll be looking.


----------



## AvidDisReader

RoseGold said:


> Disney/the finance companies will be in much better shape when they can foreclose all these delinquent accounts.  They might be over a year delinquent by the time they can foreclose again.  That's why ROFR is just out of control right now.
> 
> When Disney starts foreclosing again, that's when I'll be looking.


I am in the mortgage industry for over 35 years.  No finance company makes out when they foreclose, it is ALWAYS a losing proposition.  So it you think that Disney is some how licking there chops at the thought of getting a lot of properties/contracts back thru foreclosure, you would be totally off target.


----------



## MICKIMINI

RoseGold said:


> Disney/the finance companies will be in much better shape when they can foreclose all these delinquent accounts.  They might be over a year delinquent by the time they can foreclose again.  That's why ROFR is just out of control right now.
> 
> When Disney starts foreclosing again, that's when I'll be looking.


I just have to repeat over and over "I don't NEED anymore DVC"...no more, none!  That's what I told DH today, anyway!


----------



## RoseGold

AvidDisReader said:


> No finance company makes out when they foreclose, it is ALWAYS a losing proposition. So it you think that Disney is some how licking there chops at the thought of getting a lot of properties/contracts back thru foreclosure, you would be totally off target.


I’m not really sure what you are saying.  Obviously there are a lot of properties delinquent in dues and/or payments, even if this were a normal economy.  You think they don’t want to foreclose and sell them?

Of course foreclosing is cheaper than ROFR, Disney does it all the time.  This is one of the reasons ROFR is so high right now.  It’s the only source of sold out points right now.

I know when your dues are delinquent, Disney freezes your points, but I’m not sure that’s true for financing.  You bet they want to foreclose now.


----------



## Dean

AvidDisReader said:


> I am in the mortgage industry for over 35 years.  No finance company makes out when they foreclose, it is ALWAYS a losing proposition.  So it you think that Disney is some how licking there chops at the thought of getting a lot of properties/contracts back thru foreclosure, you would be totally off target.


Can't DVC can foreclose in house now with just admin paperwork and some basic filing?


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

DVC resale market ROFR and price updates for October:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2020/https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-october-20-report/
ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.


----------



## RoseGold

Starport Seven-Five said:


> ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.



IKR?  SSR at 103?  Crazy.

Hope you got your buys in during the summer slump.


----------



## MrWonderful

BLT at 161 is definitely an outlier.... probably had a direct buyer and grabbed what was available to them at that moment.  Also could of been a very small contract like 25 or 50 points.


----------



## Lorana

Starport Seven-Five said:


> DVC resale market ROFR and price updates for October:
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2020/https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-october-20-report/
> ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.


This is why having the reverse statistics is also nice, though: what are the lowest prices that passed?

on this board there was a BLT for $135 and another for $138 that passed in October.


----------



## AvidDisReader

RoseGold said:


> I’m not really sure what you are saying.  Obviously there are a lot of properties delinquent in dues and/or payments, even if this were a normal economy.  You think they don’t want to foreclose and sell them?
> 
> Of course foreclosing is cheaper than ROFR, Disney does it all the time.  This is one of the reasons ROFR is so high right now.  It’s the only source of sold out points right now.
> 
> I know when your dues are delinquent, Disney freezes your points, but I’m not sure that’s true for financing.  You bet they want to foreclose now.


Again, no this is a losing propostion.  You do not understand all that is lost--HOA fees, interest owed.  When you lend money, if the person is not making payments you are not only not getting back any principal but not getting back the interest that is due in the note.  If the owner was in a positive position, they would sell themselves on the secondary market.  So if it goes to foreclosure, you take into account the accumulated interest owed, principal, and HOA owed, the net will be a loss to the seller.   So when you think foreclosure, do not think it terms of just the HOA fees lost.


----------



## RebelScum

Lorana said:


> This is why having the reverse statistics is also nice, though: what are the lowest prices that passed?
> 
> on this board there was a BLT for $135 and another for $138 that passed in October.


I passed ROFR in September on a BLT contract (160 pts) at $130 per point.  Agree that they likely had direct buyer ready to go . . . Glad that was not the point when my contract was reviewed.


----------



## CastAStone

Starport Seven-Five said:


> DVC resale market ROFR and price updates for October:
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2020/https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-october-20-report/
> ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.


Meh. I think a lot of ROFR decisions get made because they have remnant points for a certain unit and by ROFRing more of that unit they can sell all the points.

If they have 20 points across 100 units they have 2000 points and nothing to sell. Its worth it to Disney to pay a little more to get points in units they have already.


----------



## zavandor

AvidDisReader said:


> Again, no this is a losing propostion.  You do not understand all that is lost--HOA fees, interest owed.  When you lend money, if the person is not making payments you are not only not getting back any principal but not getting back the interest that is due in the note.  If the owner was in a positive position, they would sell themselves on the secondary market.  So if it goes to foreclosure, you take into account the accumulated interest owed, principal, and HOA owed, the net will be a loss to the seller.   So when you think foreclosure, do not think it terms of just the HOA fees lost.


All true in the real world, but here we are in Mickey's world.
Disney finances the purchase of they own very expensive product. Virtual money goes from one Disney's account (the finacing business unit) to another Disney's account (DVC). The purchaser gives 10% for downpayment in real money that goes into a Disney account, pays for a few months more real money into Disney's account and then foreclosures.
The virtual money disappear, but the real money paid by the unfortunate owner in the meantime are still in Disney's hands and the points are back, ready to be exchanged for more real money.
It's a mindblowingly good scheme. Zero risks and a lot of profits.

Sure, while the points are in the hands of an owner, Disney cannot use (for renting) or sell them, but it is estimated that construction cost is a very small fraction on the final cost of points. Someone say between $30 and $50pp. 10% downpayment covers a good part of it.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> Meh. I think a lot of ROFR decisions get made because they have remnant points for a certain unit and by ROFRing more of that unit they can sell all the points.
> 
> If they have 20 points across 100 units they have 2000 points and nothing to sell. Its worth it to Disney to pay a little more to get points in units they have already.


I bet if we could track the unit of the contracts taken in ROFR and the unit of points Disney owns, the decisions behind ROFR would not seem so "random."


----------



## AvidDisReader

zavandor said:


> All true in the real world, but here we are in Mickey's world.
> Disney finances the purchase of they own very expensive product. Virtual money goes from one Disney's account (the finacing business unit) to another Disney's account (DVC). The purchaser gives 10% for downpayment in real money that goes into a Disney account, pays for a few months more real money into Disney's account and then foreclosures.
> The virtual money disappear, but the real money paid by the unfortunate owner in the meantime are still in Disney's hands and the points are back, ready to be exchanged for more real money.
> It's a mindblowingly good scheme. Zero risks and a lot of profits.
> 
> Sure, while the points are in the hands of an owner, Disney cannot use (for renting) or sell them, but it is estimated that construction cost is a very small fraction on the final cost of points. Someone say between $30 and $50pp. 10% downpayment covers a good part of it.


Like most large corps, each division is responsible for making a profit.  So the financing arm is going to take a very large hit every time there is a foreclosure.   Alas, my experience with over 35 years in mortgages and over 50 years in financing is not being understood.  The lay person just sees that Disney is getting its points back and is reselling at a larger point price but does not understand the lost income.   Oh well, it you want to believe that somehow Disney makes out profitably on foreclosure, live in your dream world.  In reality it is not true.


----------



## Cabius

There are a couple of factors that make DVC foreclosures different than most other retail foreclosures.

Typically, foreclosing is a money-losing proposition because the owner is underwater. If they could sell the asset at a profit, they would!

DVC is an odd position where there are two markets, and they command a huge price premium over the underwater contract owner.

A member could owe $170/point on a PVB contract where the going rate is $140-$150, in which case they would sell at a loss.

But Disney, upon foreclosing, can turn around and sell that contract at $245/point, and often has a waiting list of direct buyers!

The delta between the open market and Disney’s direct market is theoretically enough to make these transactions profitable in some (not all!) cases. It’s not like a residential foreclosure where seizing an underwater asset means that the bank is stuck with an underwater asset.

With these two markets, the asset is literally worth more to Disney than it is to the foreclosed member. The underwater asset magically becomes an above-water asset simply because Disney is the one selling it.

Obviously foreclosure costs eat into this significantly, and each transaction is unique. I’m sure that many of these represent a loss for Disney.

But unlike traditional foreclosures, these really *can* be profitable transactions for Disney because selling directly is such a high-demand value add.


----------



## CastAStone

I disappeared for like a month so I missed some things...Did Disney start foreclosing again?


----------



## zavandor

AvidDisReader said:


> Like most large corps, each division is responsible for making a profit.  So the financing arm is going to take a very large hit every time there is a foreclosure.   Alas, my experience with over 35 years in mortgages and over 50 years in financing is not being understood.  The lay person just sees that Disney is getting its points back and is reselling at a larger point price but does not understand the lost income.   Oh well, it you want to believe that somehow Disney makes out profitably on foreclosure, live in your dream world.  In reality it is not true.


Or maybe it's you trying to apply your experience in a different market to one completely controlled and regulated by Disney. @Cabius has written an excellent post explaining why DVC is completely unique.


----------



## AvidDisReader

zavandor said:


> Or maybe it's you trying to apply your experience in a different market to one completely controlled and regulated by Disney. @Cabius has written an excellent post explaining why DVC is completely unique.


I agree with the last part of his statement in that there may be some instances that it is not a losing proposition.  The one thing I tried to stay away from was the lost opportunity costs of money tied  up while going thru the foreclosure process that could be earning money in a performing asset.  Yes, I have even financed Time Share in my long career (no I have not underwritten Disney specific time share, which we all agree is a unique product).


----------



## MBTigger

CastAStone said:


> I disappeared for like a month so I missed some things...Did Disney start foreclosing again?


I disappeared for a while after I finally made my first reservation with my new (used) first DVC contract on October - not reading the ROFR or price threads until something caught my eye today about SSR being taken in ROFR. I found a taken contract for $10 more than my purchase price, and mine, while good, was not the lowest Covid pricing...


----------



## CastAStone

Starport Seven-Five said:


> DVC resale market ROFR and price updates for October:
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-october-2020/https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-october-20-report/
> ROFR of a BLT contract at $161.


The glut of AKV contracts on their site is very real - there are now *67*. When prices went nuts for AKV this summer there were as few as 4.

Demand, meet Supply. Do your worst.


----------



## RoseGold

CastAStone said:


> The glut of AKV contracts on their site is very real - there are now *67*. When prices went nuts for AKV this summer there were as few as 4.
> 
> Demand, meet Supply. Do your worst.



Flipside is VGF.  They only have a handful available.  Fidelity has ZERO VGF, which I have never seen before.

At the start of lockdown, VGF wasn't moving at all, and there were tons of contracts.


----------



## lovethesun12

CastAStone said:


> The glut of AKV contracts on their site is very real - there are now *67*. When prices went nuts for AKV this summer there were as few as 4.
> 
> Demand, meet Supply. Do your worst.


The numbers of AKV contracts are still increasing on other sites but definitely not as drastically. Prices way above market value is probably responsible for the sharp increase in their listings.


----------



## Eldon32

CastAStone said:


> The glut of AKV contracts on their site is very real - there are now *67*. When prices went nuts for AKV this summer there were as few as 4.
> 
> Demand, meet Supply. Do your worst.


I find it interesting they have so many when DVCStore only has 4; DVCStore had a lot more a few months ago. Their prices seem to be more in-line though.


----------



## CastAStone

Eldon32 said:


> I find it interesting they have so many when DVCStore only has 4; DVCStore had a lot more a few months ago. Their prices seem to be more in-line though.


I have lots of thoughts on why this is but I’ll keep them to myself. Suffice it to say that all else equal I’d probably rather buy or sell with DVCStore.com.


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

RoseGold said:


> Flipside is VGF.  They only have a handful available.  Fidelity has ZERO VGF, which I have never seen before.
> 
> At the start of lockdown, VGF wasn't moving at all, and there were tons of contracts.


It's funny because I have never liked GF but with the walkway opening my feelings have changed a bit.  I went back to look at contracts and suddenly they had jumped $20/point and there are none available.  

Oh well, I didn't really like VGF that much anyways.


----------



## gisele2

So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.


----------



## Mouse511

gisele2 said:


> So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.


Thanks - didn't know about this site, not very user friendly though.


----------



## Matty B13

Mouse511 said:


> Thanks - didn't know about this site, not very user friendly though.


Watch out for this website, I just checked the only Grand Floridian contract they have listed for 300 points at $30,000.00 but the annual dues are only $800.00 which is right around what 100 points should be.  I think they are actually trying to sell is a 100 point contract that is loaded with 3 years of points.  This would make the cost $300/point...... make sure you know what your bidding on.

Also, it doesn't state the UY of the contract as well, so I would make a phone call to this broker before bidding.


----------



## Kickstart

gisele2 said:


> So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.



Wow, that site... so hard to navigate and it's hard to tell exactly what's being listed in some cases.  I wonder if they're showing actual sold prices, that is kind of interesting.


----------



## gisele2

Matty B13 said:


> Watch out for this website, I just checked the only Grand Floridian contract they have listed for 300 points at $30,000.00 but the annual dues are only $800.00 which is right around what 100 points should be.  I think they are actually trying to sell is a 100 point contract that is loaded with 3 years of points.  This would make the cost $300/point...... make sure you know what your bidding on.
> 
> Also, it doesn't state the UY of the contract as well, so I would make a phone call to this broker before bidding.


My point is not to buy from this site, I would not. But it had no listing in the summer, and now a couple, I do not think there are commission, so I see it like there are more sellers needing to sell ASAP.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Wow I just looked at a SSR listing 100 points with $60 annual fees!  Red flags!


----------



## Heather07438

One Boardwalk listed there... the famous Unit 31A?  lol  150pts for $12k

And another BWV 150pts sold for $9k... $60pp.  C'mon now.  

How long have these been posted there?  Somethings not right.


----------



## sethschroeder

gisele2 said:


> So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.



That had super cheap contracts back in the summer as well. Impossible to buy from those sellers almost though. Reached out to like 5 or 6 never a response.


----------



## deedubb

gisele2 said:


> So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.



I saw that site when I was looking for a contract.  There is no way some of these are passing ROFR.  There is a Boardwalk 150 point contract that sold for $9K, which is $60/point.


----------



## striker1064

gisele2 said:


> So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.



I definitely remember an interesting discussion about that website not that long ago with good insights from @Brian Noble:

https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...esale-prices-are-headed.3797236/post-62083505


----------



## heynowirv

MICKIMINI said:


> Wow I just looked at a SSR listing 100 points with $60 annual fees!  Red flags!


When I was phishing for my BWV contract I checked out their site, even talked to an agent. They deal with distressed contracts mainly.  Personally I'd stay far away.They also can't tell you what is actually owed by the seller if anything.


----------



## RoseGold

gisele2 said:


> So more contracts with really low price on the site https://www.buyatimeshare.com/. So I think that we may see a price drop in the next months.



Uh, VGF at $100/point? Uh, no.


----------



## CarolynFH

striker1064 said:


> I definitely remember an interesting discussion about that website not that long ago with good insights from @Brian Noble:
> 
> https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...esale-prices-are-headed.3797236/post-62083505


Yes, everyone who's excited about the prices on that website should read Brian's post.


----------



## sethschroeder

I am so surprised looking at prices right now vs where I thought they would be. We did see a dip but Disney has been buying enough back to make up the difference.

We will see what it looks like when foreclosure starts back up like others have said. Also based on the future status of WDW restrictions, FP+, AP, and other aspects that might change POST COVID we might see additional sellers as people opt out of the "new" WDW.


----------



## Brian Noble

CarolynFH said:


> Yes, everyone who's excited about the prices on that website should read Brian's post.


The prices themselves aren't the news, I don't think.

The news is that there is any DVC inventory on this site at all. That means at least some DVC owners are willing to pay real money to have their contract taken off their hands---and that may have some interesting implications for the supply of resale contracts coming in the new year during what is already usually a busy season for new inventory coming on the market.


----------



## RoseGold

Brian Noble said:


> That means at least some DVC owners are willing to pay real money to have their contract taken off their hands---and that may have some interesting implications for the supply of resale contracts coming in the new year during what is already usually a busy season for new inventory coming on the market.



Yes, DVC contracts can be underwater, and you'd have to bring money to the table to sell.  Direct pricing + financing could be stripping the growth rate for a recent purchase.  I've seen some absolutely insane financing for DVC.  Underwater contracts might force a different action than the normal resale market we think of -- maybe they will be disposed of with foreclosure or with more creative means, like whatever that site is doing.  All of this mess is why I was convinced I would never buy a timeshare, haha, and also why I am so pro resale.


----------



## CarolynFH

RoseGold said:


> Yes, DVC contracts can be underwater, and you'd have to bring money to the table to sell.  Direct pricing + financing could be stripping the growth rate for a recent purchase.  I've seen some absolutely insane financing for DVC.  Underwater contracts might force a different action than the normal resale market we think of -- maybe they will be disposed of with foreclosure or with more creative means, like whatever that site is doing.  All of this mess is why I was convinced I would never buy a timeshare, haha, and also why I am so pro resale.


I think what Brian means is that some people are willing to pay money up front to someone to "market" their DVC contract and sell it for them.  The company whose listing is under discussion here is one of those companies.  They ask dissatisfied TS owners to pay them $$ - usually multiple thousands - to "sell my timeshare now."  Then the company lists the TS on a website that may or may not get any traffic, for unrealistic prices.  This company apparently is listing at ROFR-bait prices.  When the contract sells they may pocket a commission on top of the amount paid to list it.  So these listings illustrate that there are some DVC owners who don't know what they own and what the market value is.  That's very common with TS owners in general.


----------



## CastAStone

Heather07438 said:


> One Boardwalk listed there... the famous Unit 31A?  lol  150pts for $12k
> 
> And another BWV 150pts sold for $9k... $60pp.  C'mon now.
> 
> How long have these been posted there?  Somethings not right.


Go look at the Orange County database of sales. Contracts absolutely sell for these prices, BUT, Disney universally ROFRs anything below 50% of current direct prices, at all resorts (except those they’re actively selling) - except this spring and summer, when some people really did get incredible deals from these sites.

Not really worth the effort now, just to get ROFR’d, IMHO.


----------



## eMoneyBug

Is DVC following the stock market, it bounced off the pandemic dip but if economy tanks in 21 so will prices.  If economy blows thru covid than soar onto higher highs


----------



## RoseGold

eMoneyBug said:


> Is DVC following the stock market, it bounced off the pandemic dip but if economy tanks in 21 so will prices.  If economy blows thru covid than soar onto higher highs



Sort of.  You can see some resorts dipped over the summer, when many of us bought.  I bought VGF!  But some never budged, like SSR.  And some went crazy, like AKL.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2020/


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

2020 was really weird because:
-The driving factor behind the recession also affected travel.  WDW shutting down had only happened a few times in its history before this year and it was closed for months.
-People that were hurt economically in 2020 were primarily retail and lower income workers.  Those are not typical DVC customers.
-With travel restricted, people had extra money to spend and some used it to fund future vacations by buying DVC.

Assuming 2021 is the year of the vaccine and we all get back to normal traveling, I think a future economic recession would be closer to 08-09 where DVC price declines lagged the market by a couple years.  That seems more "normal" in how I would expect DVC prices to reflect challenging economic conditions.


----------



## E2ME2

RoseGold said:


> Sort of.  You can see some resorts dipped over the summer, when many of us bought.  I bought VGF!  But some never budged, like SSR.  And some went crazy, like AKL.
> 
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-november-2020/


Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020.  I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing


----------



## RoseGold

E2ME2 said:


> Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020. I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing



There are always outlier contracts, I never paid anything close to these averages, even well before Covid.

I'm talking about averages.  That brokers moves a lot of contracts, and their averages might be a little high for the small contracts, and maybe a little quirky in the smaller resorts, but they aren't unreasonable as a show of market value over time.


----------



## E2ME2

RoseGold said:


> There are always outlier contracts, I never paid anything close to these averages, even well before Covid.
> 
> I'm talking about averages.  That brokers moves a lot of contracts, and their averages might be a little high for the small contracts, and maybe a little quirky in the smaller resorts, but they aren't unreasonable as a show of market value over time.


OK - Gotcha
Yeah, Ive always thought the prices from that particular source were a bit on the high side, and I understand its based on their averages.
Wouldn't it be nice to have one master compilation of data from all the brokers ?


----------



## Lorana

E2ME2 said:


> OK - Gotcha
> Yeah, Ive always thought the prices from that particular source were a bit on the high side, and I understand its based on their averages.
> Wouldn't it be nice to have one master compilation of data from all the brokers ?


YES!  Including what actual selling prices are vs asking. And ranges of contracts that passed RofR!




E2ME2 said:


> Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020.  I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing


My deal wasn’t as good but I was pleased to get a mostly loaded 100-point SSR for $94 and then a 50-point for $104 with seller paying dues!


----------



## kevtlas

E2ME2 said:


> Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020.  I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing





Lorana said:


> My deal wasn’t as good but I was pleased to get a mostly loaded 100-point SSR for $94 and then a 50-point for $104 with seller paying dues!


I caught a lucky deal this summer as well, and was able to snag a fully loaded 300 point SSR for $85, but I paid 2020 dues. Still, after renting the banked points, the net per point was less than what I paid for SSR in 2010!


----------



## Mattknite

I got 120 points for $101.50. Not the best deal but it was what I wanted.


----------



## bookwormde

Since I completed the 6 months of tracking indicated in my OP prices have been very stable so there seamed to be little value ongoing tracking..

I have recently seen 2 factors that might be pre indicators of some changes, first is that the number of active resale contracts has grown significantly, second is that I am seeing  owner point rental prices drop in both the short and medium term and the quantity of significantly discounted reservation from the rental firms grow

I am thinking of beginning to track again 1/1/21 though probably not publishing results unless there are significant trends

Anyone else have any thoughts on the value of this


----------



## mamaofsix

bookwormde said:


> Since I completed the 6 months of tracking indicated in my OP prices have been very stable so there seamed to be little value ongoing tracking..
> 
> I have recently seen 2 factors that might be pre indicators of some changes, first is that the number of active resale contracts has grown significantly, second is that I am seeing  owner point rental prices drop in both the short and medium term and the quantity of significantly discounted reservation from the rental firms grow
> 
> I am thinking of beginning to track again 1/1/21 though probably not publishing results unless there are significant trends
> 
> Anyone else have any thoughts on the value of this


Your tracking would be very much appreciated.  I think you are right that change is in the air...


----------



## Ginamarie

bookwormde said:


> Since I completed the 6 months of tracking indicated in my OP prices have been very stable so there seamed to be little value ongoing tracking..
> 
> I have recently seen 2 factors that might be pre indicators of some changes, first is that the number of active resale contracts has grown significantly, second is that I am seeing  owner point rental prices drop in both the short and medium term and the quantity of significantly discounted reservation from the rental firms grow
> 
> I am thinking of beginning to track again 1/1/21 though probably not publishing results unless there are significant trends
> 
> Anyone else have any thoughts on the value of this



I don't know if this is an outlier since it's the end of the year and dues are up, but I've noticed a bunch of contracts come up lately that are priced lower than what I've seen (BRV& OKW under $100/pp- even a couple of SS priced under $100).  Seeing as buyers often offer less than the asking price, these prices seem like they're likely to get scooped by ROFR, but I also recently saw a couple sneak through.  I'm curious if this is just sellers looking to get out of these contract before paying the dues or if the prices are actually taking a little dip after this fall.

We're almost reaching the point now where the 2042 contracts will only have 20 years left on them (anothing stripped is already down to the 20 year mark), and I also think that's a psychological marker for people where they start looking more closely at the price of those contracts overall.


----------



## Sandisw

Ginamarie said:


> I don't know if this is an outlier since it's the end of the year and dues are up, but I've noticed a bunch of contracts come up lately that are priced lower than what I've seen (BRV& OKW under $100/pp- even a couple of SS priced under $100).  Seeing as buyers often offer less than the asking price, these prices seem like they're likely to get scooped by ROFR, but I also recently saw a couple sneak through.  I'm curious if this is just sellers looking to get out of these contract before paying the dues or if the prices are actually taking a little dip after this fall.
> 
> We're almost reaching the point now where the 2042 contracts will only have 20 years left on them (anothing stripped is already down to the 20 year mark), and I also think that's a psychological marker for people where they start looking more closely at the price of those contracts overall.



It may be that sellers are watching what is going to be taken via ROFR and are okay with pricing low,

From what I understand, if they take it, the seller gets the check pretty quickly which may be an intentional strategy,

I payed $73/point for my SSR points only 3 years ago, so even selling in the $90/s would give me a profit!


----------



## heynowirv

Sandisw said:


> It may be that sellers are watching what is going to be taken via ROFR and are okay with pricing low,
> 
> From what I understand, if they take it, the seller gets the check pretty quickly which may be an intentional strategy,
> 
> I payed $73/point for my SSR points only 3 years ago, so even selling in the $90/s would give me a profit!


Nice.We paid 68. in 2009 for our first contract .A 190 point OKW. That's on e we'll keep till it expires .2 Reasons. We love OKW and It grandfathered us into all the perks available.
 On another note we bought a 150 point BWV contract in July for 110. PP which had 95 2020 points and I thought we did well .


----------



## linzjane88

I know for me, I was all for team add on when the pandemic started. I was certain I would have another contract by the end of this year. When the prices didn't dip and when my November WDW trip failed to infuse me with pixie dust I kinda decided I am content with what I have points wise. Usually every trip I am left wanting MORE and planning 2 more trip ahead but Covid travel is more work than it's worth IMO. We switched over into the mindset of using the vacation budget towards the house and doing updates to make home more awesome. I would like to enjoy my home bathroom as much as the newly remodeled SSR baths! 

If prices somehow dropped a massive amount like they did after the recession I might bite but honestly I don't even look at the listings for fun anymore.

Since my lightbulb moments are rarely ever unique (even if I think they are when I come up with them) I wonder if there's other potential buyers backing off the purchase idea also?


----------



## Brianstl

I wonder what the impact the layoffs at Disney are having on the increase in resale contracts.  Cast members could buy DVC direct at a discount and from what I understand the DVC employees, at least, took advantage of it.  I don’t know how many other Disney employees bought contracts, but with a large number of employees now without jobs at DVC and maintenance fees due it could explain some of the jump in contracts.


----------



## emilymad

linzjane88 said:


> I know for me, I was all for team add on when the pandemic started. I was certain I would have another contract by the end of this year. When the prices didn't dip and when my November WDW trip failed to infuse me with pixie dust I kinda decided I am content with what I have points wise. Usually every trip I am left wanting MORE and planning 2 more trip ahead but Covid travel is more work than it's worth IMO. We switched over into the mindset of using the vacation budget towards the house and doing updates to make home more awesome. I would like to enjoy my home bathroom as much as the newly remodeled SSR baths!
> 
> If prices somehow dropped a massive amount like they did after the recession I might bite but honestly I don't even look at the listings for fun anymore.
> 
> Since my lightbulb moments are rarely ever unique (even if I think they are when I come up with them) I wonder if there's other potential buyers backing off the purchase idea also?



I could have written almost the exact same thing.  I could see adding on in the future but it is more on the 5 year plan now.  We are doing a long weekend at RIV in February so it will interesting to see how we feel after that trip.  It is our first resort only stay in 9+ years of ownership as park tickets just seem too expensive for what Disney is offering.  By the time travel starts up again and we travel to all of the other places we want to go I am not sure Disney will hold the same appeal.  

And in the meantime the shower in our master bathroom needs to be replaced so the DVC budget it going there instead.


----------



## Sandisw

Brianstl said:


> I wonder what the impact the layoffs at Disney are having on the increase in resale contracts.  Cast members could buy DVC direct at a discount and from what I understand the DVC employees, at least, took advantage of it.  I don’t know how many other Disney employees bought contracts, but with a large number of employees now without jobs at DVC and maintenance fees due it could explain some of the jump in contracts.



The past few years, the CM discount for DVC was not anything major.  We got $1000 extra when buying the 175 points for RIV using my DDs discount...  It was a little more that if we wanted Aulani. 

Of course, we were the ones who bought so won’t be selling! And, glad we did because she ended up having to leave th for a job at another company because with no idea when Broadway will open again, her furlough was going to last a lot longer than originally planned.


----------



## Yankee626

I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point .  Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ?  Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?


----------



## HappyThoughtsTees

Yankee626 said:


> I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point .  Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ?  Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?


The contracts might be listed for that price, but I'm not sure many are paying list price unless it's a small (50pt) contract. For example our 160 VGC was listed around $215 or so, and we paid $202 back in October.  Some of these VGC listings with inflated price tags have been sitting around longer than usual. When I first started looking at resale, VGC was snapped up so quickly it was hard to even make offers. Now it seems they are really reaching with these prices and the offers aren't rolling in so quickly!


----------



## Sandisw

Yankee626 said:


> I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point .  Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ?  Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?



DVC is about long term and not short term so those that find a. GC contract that fits there needs...since resale is the only option...will buy.

It won’t be closed forever, and those points can be used at 7 months so it can make sense for certain people.


----------



## BruinEd03

Yankee626 said:


> I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point .  Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ?  Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?



Because, Disneyland will open up.  I mean, most people have to book VGC trips 7 to 11 months in advance.  Do you believe Disneyland will remain closed for all of next year?  Keep in mind, being closed for 1 year does not affect the current buyer.  When it will re-open is the key point.


----------



## Cfabar1

I agree, as someone who has thought about buying in HHI that the 20 year marker is HUGE, when you see that value proposition, especially someone who may be vacationing for another 30-40 years (at least).  Aulani, HHI, and Vero Beach are all EXACTLY the type of resort that we would want to be, with the possible exception of the fact we can't bring our dog, and he is without a doubt the most spoiled member of the household.

But, when I see the cost, even resale, and knowing I only have 20 years to use it, it just makes the math much harder to justify, especially when, in our case, the resorts we are looking at, aren't really that different from a Hyatt, Westin, etc.  We only live 2 hours away from WDW, so an extended stay there doesn't make too much sense for us.  

So in short, we really want to be DVC members, but I am not sure it is the best thing for us. Which makes me sad, despite it making sense.


----------



## deedubb

Yankee626 said:


> I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point .  Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ?  Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?


VGC is absolutely the best resort to stay at and it will almost certainly open up sometime this year, so I can see why people are still paying top dollar for it.


----------



## CastAStone

Yankee626 said:


> I Cant understand how VGC are selling resale for $230 a point .  Hasn't Disneyland been closed for a Year ?  Who would pay such a ridiculous price for something just about worthless right now ?


Yes, it is outrageous. You can stay in a full kitchen suite at the Tropicana (that is perhaps a 1 minute longer walk to Disneyland park than the walk to DL from GCH) for $250 a night, and Disneyland offers few onsite benefits. You are paying an enormous upcharge for theming and 1 hour of early admission, 3 days a week. And DVC barely offers a discount vs cash prices at VGC.

Original owners got a deal. Resale has been just bananas.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

CastAStone said:


> Original owners got a deal. Resale has been just bananas.


----------



## Brian Noble

CastAStone said:


> Original owners got a deal. Resale has been just bananas.


VGC benefits from the heavy tail of Disneyphile fanaticism. The resort is small enough, and the addressable market large enough, that you don't need too many people ignoring the finances in favor of the emotional sense of "ownership/belonging" to drive prices. I do wonder whether the new tower will poke a hole in that, but don't have enough of a sense to make a prediction.


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> Yes, it is outrageous. You can stay in a full kitchen suite at the Tropicana (that is perhaps a 1 minute longer walk to Disneyland park than the walk to DL from GCH) for $250 a night, and Disneyland offers few onsite benefits. You are paying an enormous upcharge for theming and 1 hour of early admission, 3 days a week. And DVC barely offers a discount vs cash prices at VGC.
> 
> Original owners got a deal. Resale has been just bananas.


And the private entrance into CA. It is a huge perk. 

I get not nearly as huge a perk when it’s only saving you a 10 minute walk, but that easy in and out makes a huge difference at the end of a long day or when you have sleeping or cranky kids and need a break.


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

I just made a lowball offer on a 100pt BLT contract which won't have any points until Dec 2022 but the seller wouldn't really budge from his price of $154/pt. Went down $2 to $152. Guess I'll continue looking but now I understand why people become addicted to looking at contracts when they are lowballing lol.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

E2ME2 said:


> Actually, SSR "budged" a little in 2020.  I added on 225 Points for $20K ($88.89/Point). Fortuitous timing


nice contract


----------



## RanDIZ

CookieandOatmeal said:


> I just made a lowball offer on a 100pt BLT contract which won't have any points until Dec 2022 but the seller wouldn't really budge from his price of $154/pt. Went down $2 to $152. Guess I'll continue looking but now I understand why people become addicted to looking at contracts when they are lowballing lol.



That's their loss. I'd keep looking. Asking for $200 off isn't much at all. There's been plenty of 100pt BLT's that passed for less and with 2021 points in the past 6 months. I would've offered in the 140's. Disney has been taking BLT's lately so its anyone's guess what they'd do.


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

RanDIZ said:


> That's their loss. I'd keep looking. Asking for $200 off isn't much at all. There's been plenty of 100pt BLT's that passed for less and with 2021 points in the past 6 months. I would've offered in the 140's. Disney has been taking BLT's lately so its anyone's guess what they'd do.



Sorry! I meant they were only willing to go down to $152.My two offers were in the $130s and we were willing to go up to the 140s dependent on what they said. Since we’re in no hurry for more points, will definitely keep looking!


----------



## RanDIZ

CookieandOatmeal said:


> Sorry! I meant they were only willing to go down to $152.My two offers were in the $130s and we were willing to go up to the 140s dependent on what they said. Since we’re in no hurry for more points, will definitely keep looking!



Oh ok gothca. Settling in the 140's would've been decent.


----------



## ValW

RanDIZ said:


> Disney has been taking BLT's lately so its anyone's guess what they'd do.




This is why I just made an offer on BLT contract from an International seller.  Trying to get one through ROFR!


----------



## RanDIZ

ValW said:


> This is why I just made an offer on BLT contract from an International seller.  Trying to get one through ROFR!



Smart move! Disney apparently doesn't like International contracts.


----------



## Wakey

It’s much better to buy from an international seller in heavily ROFRd resorts. I’ve never heard of one being taken. Buying from say the U.K should be no longer a process either.


----------



## gisele2

CookieandOatmeal said:


> I just made a lowball offer on a 100pt BLT contract which won't have any points until Dec 2022 but the seller wouldn't really budge from his price of $154/pt. Went down $2 to $152. Guess I'll continue looking but now I understand why people become addicted to looking at contracts when they are lowballing lol.


It is a full time job !!!


----------



## lovethesun12

Lorana said:


> And the private entrance into CA. It is a huge perk.
> 
> I get not nearly as huge a perk when it’s only saving you a 10 minute walk, but that easy in and out makes a huge difference at the end of a long day or when you have sleeping or cranky kids and need a break.


An awesome pool (and amenities) are also must haves for a lot of people and not much in the vicinity compares. If you go to the GCH you are taking a vacation at a resort. If you go to an offsite hotel you are taking a vacation at a hotel.


----------



## Ssplashhmtn

It seems the number of VGF contracts listed on most of the resale sites is low.  I am surprised.  I seem to recall there are usually more sellers after dues statements come out each year?  Maybe in January...


----------



## Ginamarie

CookieandOatmeal said:


> Sorry! I meant they were only willing to go down to $152.My two offers were in the $130s and we were willing to go up to the 140s dependent on what they said. Since we’re in no hurry for more points, will definitely keep looking!


Keep looking!  Some sellers are more motivated than others.  I have one contract I bid on and the seller thought I was lowballing too much and wouldn't counteroffer.  Ten days later, they dropped the contract price by $10/pp.  I renewed my offer (it's a lot closer now) and they still don't want to meet my price.  I'm waiting it out.  Either someone else will snatch it up (the price is more reasonable now after the price drop) or they may change their minds again in a couple of weeks.  I'm in no rush.


----------



## CastAStone

Ssplashhmtn said:


> It seems the number of VGF contracts listed on most of the resale sites is low.  I am surprised.  I seem to recall there are usually more sellers after dues statements come out each year?  Maybe in January...


That’s been the case for a couple months. This summer there was a ton of VGF. While there’s real seasonality, it’s also true that dumb luck has a lot to do with supply on the market as well.


----------



## RoseGold

I'm working on a delayed close VGF contract, and I'm shocked at what has happened to supply.  Fidelity has had NONE for quite some time.

I've said it before, and I'll say it again.  VGF is the next VGC, especially if the points keep inflating as they have been.

If DVC takes the empty spot next to VGF, the chart will be insane.  It will be interesting to see what happens to DL Tower points.


----------



## RanDIZ

Ginamarie said:


> Keep looking!  Some sellers are more motivated than others.  I have one contract I bid on and the seller thought I was lowballing too much and wouldn't counteroffer.  Ten days later, they dropped the contract price by $10/pp.  I renewed my offer (it's a lot closer now) and they still don't want to meet my price.  I'm waiting it out.  Either someone else will snatch it up (the price is more reasonable now after the price drop) or they may change their minds again in a couple of weeks.  I'm in no rush.



My contract in ROFR right now was reduced twice. I was literally about to make an offer the day before they reduced it again. I even got a little greedy and offered less and they accepted. I guess at that point they just wanted to get rid of it. It was on the market for a couple months.


----------



## Bucknut2710

bookwormde said:


> here is the longer term trend from this reseller
> View attachment 482441


I just closed on a SS resale at $105 per point in October and can confirm this was one of the better deals I found after looking for roughly six months (contracts roughly from 80-100 points).  It also had banked points attached so I was pretty happy with finally becoming a DVC owner!


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

Ginamarie said:


> Keep looking!  Some sellers are more motivated than others.  I have one contract I bid on and the seller thought I was lowballing too much and wouldn't counteroffer.  Ten days later, they dropped the contract price by $10/pp.  I renewed my offer (it's a lot closer now) and they still don't want to meet my price.  I'm waiting it out.  Either someone else will snatch it up (the price is more reasonable now after the price drop) or they may change their minds again in a couple of weeks.  I'm in no rush.


That contract has been around for at least 20 days so I’m definitely keeping an eye on it. Hoping for some price reductions in the future and I’ll be able to swoop in to grab it!


----------



## Brianstl

RoseGold said:


> I'm working on a delayed close VGF contract, and I'm shocked at what has happened to supply.  Fidelity has had NONE for quite some time.
> 
> I've said it before, and I'll say it again.  VGF is the next VGC, especially if the points keep inflating as they have been.
> 
> If DVC takes the empty spot next to VGF, the chart will be insane.  It will be interesting to see what happens to DL Tower points.


I don’t think there will ever be another VGC.  That price inflation at VGC is all about limited supply.  Only 71 DVC units for all Anaheim.


----------



## RoseGold

Brianstl said:


> I don’t think there will ever be another VGC. That price inflation at VGC is all about limited supply. Only 71 DVC units for all Anaheim.



Well yea, obviously.  And VGC is half the total points of VGF.

Back in Florida, VGF is the smallest at WDW.  Plus it has ideal location tied to shocking cash price.  In that sense, it’s an even better deal than VGC. If DVC trend continues of mega resort with inflating points, VGF will keep looking better IMO.


----------



## gisele2

RoseGold said:


> Well yea, obviously.  And VGC is half the total points of VGF.
> 
> Back in Florida, VGF is the smallest at WDW.  Plus it has ideal location tied to shocking cash price.  In that sense, it’s an even better deal than VGC. If DVC trend continues of mega resort with inflating points, VGF will keep looking better IMO.


I agree with you.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Ssplashhmtn said:


> It seems the number of VGF contracts listed on most of the resale sites is low.  I am surprised.  I seem to recall there are usually more sellers after dues statements come out each year?  Maybe in January...



They do all swing in availability.  Not too long ago there were quite a few VGF and AKV contracts were harder to find especially considering the size of that resort.  There's been times when SSR contracts have been scarce.


----------



## sethschroeder

I think any change on VGF likely are due to the downward shift in price over the earlier part of this year.

Prices went lower on VGF so more people could entertain buying there and on the flip side people who own there saw the price "tank" and decided to just keep the contract and ride out COVID19.


----------



## gisele2

sethschroeder said:


> I think any change on VGF likely are due to the downward shift in price over the earlier part of this year.
> 
> Prices went lower on VGF so more people could entertain buying there and on the flip side people who own there saw the price "tank" and decided to just keep the contract and ride out COVID19.


Make sense


----------



## dvc lover 1970

sethschroeder said:


> I think any change on VGF likely are due to the downward shift in price over the earlier part of this year.


I don't think VGF will be the next VGC. GC is the only resort there. GF has other monorail resorts.


----------



## sethschroeder

dvc lover 1970 said:


> I don't think VGF will be the next VGC. GC is the only resort there. GF has other monorail resorts.



Completely agree in addition it has a Studio only resort next door (with a better theme) and has a rival (with less theme) that is even closer to MK.


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

Don't you wish there was a way to see what price a seller actually settled for on a contract you've been watching? Today it went from being available to sale pending so that was kind of weird too. Wouldn't it usually go from being available to offer accepted then sale pending?


----------



## ValW

CookieandOatmeal said:


> Today it went from being available to sale pending so that was kind of weird too. Wouldn't it usually go from being available to offer accepted then sale pending?



Not necessarily.  I've offered list and it went directly to sale pending.


----------



## CookieandOatmeal

ValW said:


> Not necessarily.  I've offered list and it went directly to sale pending.


Interesting. I had an offer accepted on a different contract but same site and it went from available to offer accepted. So weird how it’s different!


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

CookieandOatmeal said:


> Don't you wish there was a way to see what price a seller actually settled for on a contract you've been watching? Today it went from being available to sale pending so that was kind of weird too. Wouldn't it usually go from being available to offer accepted then sale pending?



I believe others have calculated the amount paid from the tax amount that is recorded on the deed.  Of course you'd have to be able to pick out the exact contract you had been watching and if it were a common point amount that would be difficult.


----------



## Yankee626

deedubb said:


> VGC is absolutely the best resort to stay at and it will almost certainly open up sometime this year, so I can see why people are still paying top dollar for it.


Even when it reopens its only Disneyland .  How many times can you go there when DW is so much bigger and better.  Just my point of view I guess


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Yankee626 said:


> Even when it reopens its only Disneyland .  How many times can you go there when DW is so much bigger and better.  Just my point of view I guess



There are a lot of DL AP holders that would prove that others think differently.       I guess I don't see that particular point because if you can go to WDW repeatedly then what is different about DL?  People tend to go for shorter stays because they don't have 4 parks to hit but even WDW is a repeat in the exact same way.   We know people that fly to DL at least once a month.


----------



## limace

Yankee626 said:


> Even when it reopens its only Disneyland .  How many times can you go there when DW is so much bigger and better.  Just my point of view I guess


Every year, at least. Disneyland is wonderful.


----------



## deedubb

Yankee626 said:


> Even when it reopens its only Disneyland .  How many times can you go there when DW is so much bigger and better.  Just my point of view I guess



We go to DLR about once for every 4 trips to WDW due to the distance, but looking back, I think our DLR trips have been more enjoyable.  MaxPass>FP+.  Park hopping DLR>WDW.  Summer weather CA>FL.  DLR - basically don't need to plan anything.  WDW - have to start planning 6 months in advance, stressful to get ADRs, stressful to get FP+.


----------



## CastAStone

CookieandOatmeal said:


> Wouldn't it usually go from being available to offer accepted then sale pending?


When I was aggressively tracking contracts I found exactly zero of the DVC sites were consistent about how they handled this.


----------



## lovethesun12

limace said:


> Every year, at least. Disneyland is wonderful.


Whenever I try to debate Disneyland/WDW it's like asking myself whether I would like a yacht or a mansion. There are advantages to both but I'll settle for either .


----------



## Sandisw

CookieandOatmeal said:


> Don't you wish there was a way to see what price a seller actually settled for on a contract you've been watching? Today it went from being available to sale pending so that was kind of weird too. Wouldn't it usually go from being available to offer accepted then sale pending?



It would be nice but it would be so detrimental to brokers and sellers that I doubt it would ever happen.

I too have found different sites do it different and wonder why.  I know the contract I bought last spring never even went that way, after it was weeks into ROFR.  Lol


----------



## CastAStone

lovethesun12 said:


> Whenever I try to debate Disneyland/WDW it's like asking myself whether I would like a yacht or a mansion. There are advantages to both but I'll settle for either .


100%. I strongly prefer Disneyland but like I’m definitely going to WDW every time I can.


----------



## Kickstart

deedubb said:


> We go to DLR about once for every 4 trips to WDW due to the distance, but looking back, I think our DLR trips have been more enjoyable.  MaxPass>FP+.  Park hopping DLR>WDW.  Summer weather CA>FL.  DLR - basically don't need to plan anything.  WDW - have to start planning 6 months in advance, stressful to get ADRs, stressful to get FP+.



Very interesting comparison, thanks for sharing that... we've never been to DL, but based on your comparison I can see how people would like DL better than WDW.

I'm a planner, and like using spreadsheets  and even I think WDW has become too difficult to get your value's worth without excessive planning.   I feel bad for people when I hear they're going to WDW and find out they haven't planned.  This could be a growing problem for WDW as people who just book a reservation and "go with the flow" potentially leave thinking it wasn't really worth it.  We have friends who "just went" and didn't enjoy themselves.

DL is also the original, with more history, and I hear more attention to detail.  I'm told if you like Disney history then a visit to DL is a must.


----------



## Lorana

Yankee626 said:


> Even when it reopens its only Disneyland .  How many times can you go there when DW is so much bigger and better.  Just my point of view I guess


I used to feel the same!  Then due to work I was sent often out to Irvine, CA, so bought myself an AP so I could go when I was out there, and then started bringing the family twice a year for trips.

Don’t get me wrong - WDW is my first love. But DL has several things unique to it, and as another mentioned, the MaxPass is better than FastPass, the weather is pretty much just nice year round, VGC has a private entrance to CA, and there really is something to be said about how small it is. While I hate being able to hear city sounds from within the park - breaks that escapism illusion!! - sometimes I’ve really appreciated how close everything is in DL and how easy it is to hit all my favorite rides without having to jump between 4 parks. Maybe this is just me getting older, but I love being able to walk to everything.


----------



## CastAStone

Lorana said:


> I used to feel the same!  Then due to work I was sent often out to Irvine, CA, so bought myself an AP so I could go when I was out there, and then started bringing the family twice a year for trips.
> 
> Don’t get me wrong - WDW is my first love. But DL has several things unique to it, and as another mentioned, the MaxPass is better than FastPass, the weather is pretty much just nice year round, VGC has a private entrance to CA, and there really is something to be said about how small it is. While I hate being able to hear city sounds from within the park - breaks that escapism illusion!! - sometimes I’ve really appreciated how close everything is in DL and how easy it is to hit all my favorite rides without having to jump between 4 parks. Maybe this is just me getting older, but I love being able to walk to everything.


 to all of this. Disneyland is superior in most aspects to WDW, ESPECIALLY to small children, parents of small children, and anyone who has aged (or in my case weighted) out of enjoying 6 miles of walking a day. I also find Disneyland to be considerably less expensive, even coming from the East Coast. Hotel and food are both meaningfully cheaper since there’s no incentive to stay or dine on site.

But WDW is also great!


----------



## Lorana

CastAStone said:


> to all of this. Disneyland is superior in most aspects to WDW, ESPECIALLY to small children, parents of small children, and anyone who has aged (or in my case weighted) out of enjoying 6 miles of walking a day. I also find Disneyland to be considerably less expensive, even coming from the East Coast. Hotel and food are both meaningfully cheaper since there’s no incentive to stay or dine on site.
> 
> But WDW is also great!


Right?? Having Star Wars in the same park as Magic Kingdom is just fantastic. It’s so easy to get back to the hotel at the end of the day or the middle of the day or when everyone just needs a break. After having spent so much time at DL, I confess that when I went back to WDW for the first time, I did have a bit of that “whhhyyyy is everything so far apart” whine when I hit my limit late in the day. ;-)

that said, WDW is amazing and offers so much more than DL can. It’s a true escape where the city isn’t encroaching on you. And our WDW trips tend to be longer and more relaxing, usually because DL is a long weekend trip we often combine with a trip to get out and see other things in California.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Ooooooo - this has turned into a which is better?  DL of course.   
(and I love WDW too)


----------



## princesscinderella

KAT4DISNEY said:


> Ooooooo - this has turned into a which is better?  DL of course.
> (and I love WDW too)



I’m a born and raised Floridian and I like DL better. That’s why we both a small 80pt VGC dvc contract because we venture out there every two years. We love that they have more rides in the two parks than all of WDW (this might have changed haven’t compared in the last couple years). It just has something special about it and it’s so nice that you can easily walk to everything. When I describe DL to my Florida friends I compare it to UO resort where the two parks are connected with Downtown Disney.

We still go to WDW all the time and love it too but Disneyland has our hearts.  We rescheduled our june 2020 DL trip to June 2021 with our VGC points.  I’m hesitant to book flights until closer to the trip with the status of CA right now.


----------



## Brian Noble

I remember Tony Baxter summarizing the difference on one of those Travel Channel infomercials from the early '00s. Something like Disneyland is charming, while Walt Disney World is stunning. On the surface they may seem comparable, but I'm not sure that they are.


----------



## DougEMG

We are on the west coast and still prefer to do a WDW trip over a DL trip.  The main reason is that we like to get away for 3 weeks at a time and while I can easily spend 3 weeks at WDW, I can't at DL.


----------



## AvidDisReader

DougEMG said:


> We are on the west coast and still prefer to do a WDW trip over a DL trip.  The main reason is that we like to get away for 3 weeks at a time and while I can easily spend 3 weeks at WDW, I can't at DL.


Totally agree.  Coming from the Midwest and going to DL is maybe 3 days and you still are repeating most everything.  Going to WDW there is so much to do, typical trip is 8 days and there are still things that could not be fit in.  That is the advantage of having so much land that Disney can offer so many more alternatives (not just the major parks but also the water parks, stables for horseback riding, golf, etc.)


----------



## gskywalker

I'm interested to see if there will actually be any effect from today's magical express news.  A number of people have said they will sell because of it, or not buy.  I am actually in the latter group.  We'll see in a few days but as of right now I don't want to buy the 2nd contract I have been trying to get.  I am going to guess it will be minimal enough that it won't affect anything but maybe it will.


----------



## Matty B13

Prices might be heading down, luckily I bought in 2016/2017 and can get my money back.

Really upset about this change, most "Unmagical News" lately...... didn't mind missing our trip last year, but now......


----------



## Brianstl

gskywalker said:


> I'm interested to see if there will actually be any effect from today's magical express news.  A number of people have said they will sell because of it, or not buy.  I am actually in the latter group.  We'll see in a few days but as of right now I don't want to buy the 2nd contract I have been trying to get.  I am going to guess it will be minimal enough that it won't affect anything but maybe it will.


Having to rent a car definitely adds to the cost calculation for DVC.  It, also, adds to the fear of what they could take away in  the future.


----------



## RoseGold

Having to lug around three car seats might be a deal breaker for many.  I can see the ME news impacting resale price and definitely direct sales.


----------



## princesslover

gskywalker said:


> I'm interested to see if there will actually be any effect from today's magical express news.  A number of people have said they will sell because of it, or not buy.  I am actually in the latter group.  We'll see in a few days but as of right now I don't want to buy the 2nd contract I have been trying to get.  I am going to guess it will be minimal enough that it won't affect anything but maybe it will.



I am also putting the brakes on our 2nd contract.  Our next trip isn’t until 2022 (we just got back) so no more ME for us.  We’ll see how things pan out but I am extremely unhappy with the direction Disney is heading. The magic is slowly disappearing.   Not sure I want to invest my vacation dollars here.


----------



## gskywalker

princesslover said:


> I am also putting the brakes on our 2nd contract.  Our next trip isn’t until 2022 (we just got back) so no more ME for us.  We’ll see how things pan out but I am extremely unhappy with the direction Disney is heading. The magic is slowly disappearing.   Not sure I want to invest my vacation dollars here.


I agree, its not just about one thing.  Its they are cutting all of the differences that Disney used to have compared to non Disney resorts.  I can understand changes, certain cost cuts etc, especially right now but doing things like this just say to me, "what is the point staying on property anymore?" Plus this one is a gigantic difference for our family.  

Over the last few years I usually sent down my senior mother and my special needs daughter and her wheel chair down for a few days every 2-3 months and didn't worry about it because I got them to the airport and disney got them back and forth, so there was no worries, no issues of my mother driving, getting lost, dealing with the luggage and my daughter's chair, etc. etc.  I remember when the kids younger what a nightmare it was even with my wife, myself and my mother to carry all the luggage and look after the kids, the Magical Express made such a difference that we always stayed on property so I would think they will lose a lot of young families.


----------



## princesslover

gskywalker said:


> I agree, its not just about one thing.  Its they are cutting all of the differences that Disney used to have compared to non Disney resorts.  I can understand changes, certain cost cuts etc, especially right now but doing things like this just say to me, "what is the point staying on property anymore?" Plus this one is a gigantic difference for our family.
> 
> Over the last few years I usually sent down my senior mother and my special needs daughter and her wheel chair down for a few days every 2-3 months and didn't worry about it because I got them to the airport and disney got them back and forth, so there was no worries, no issues of my mother driving, getting lost, dealing with the luggage and my daughter's chair, etc. etc.  I remember when the kids younger what a nightmare it was even with my wife, myself and my mother to carry all the luggage and look after the kids, the Magical Express made such a difference that we always stayed on property so I would think they will lose a lot of young families.



I too understand having to make cuts. But they have lost sight of what their guests value the most.  The ME and luggage service was more than “just a bus.”  It began the Disney bubble for us.  To arrive at MCO to be whisked away to the resort where our baggage would arrive soon after, and then on the way home to have baggage check in at the resort...those things made Disney stand out. It felt magical and special.   Same with free magic bands sent ahead to begin the excitement.  I felt cared about and I felt Disney knew my needs even before I did.  I am sad that those feelings may be gone forever. I am so incredibly sad.


----------



## RoseGold

gskywalker said:


> Over the last few years I usually sent down my senior mother and my special needs daughter and her wheel chair down for a few days every 2-3 months and didn't worry about it because I got them to the airport and disney got them back and forth, so there was no worries, no issues of my mother driving, getting lost, dealing with the luggage and my daughter's chair, etc. etc.



This is a really big loss for the disabled, one that I can't see any way to pay a little more to overcome.  DVC owners with disabilities are going to have to make tough decisions.  There are plenty of people who would have PAID for Magical Express, if it was such a financial loser.


----------



## JETSDAD

I doubt this will have any impact on pricing.  People spending 10's of thousands on a timeshare, plus the annual dues, aren't going to suddenly abandon ship in large numbers over the cost of an Uber or rental car.  There will be outrage and threats like every other time Disney makes a cost cutting decision, and then it blows over and the demand remains.


----------



## TCRAIG

RoseGold said:


> This is a really big loss for the disabled, one that I can't see any way to pay a little more to overcome.  DVC owners with disabilities are going to have to make tough decisions.  There are plenty of people who would have PAID for Magical Express, if it was such a financial loser.


Are we sure it’s not just the ‘Complimentary’ part of DME that’s going away?


----------



## princesslover

JETSDAD said:


> I doubt this will have any impact on pricing.  People spending 10's of thousands on a timeshare, plus the annual dues, aren't going to suddenly abandon ship in large numbers over the cost of an Uber or rental car.  There will be outrage and threats like every other time Disney makes a cost cutting decision, and then it blows over and the demand remains.



Focusing  on cost of the Uber misses the larger point. I don’t think it’s the cost that is the tipping point. It’s the slow loss of that exceptional Disney guest service.  This is a big one.


----------



## gskywalker

princesslover said:


> I too understand having to make cuts. But they have lost sight of what their guests value the most.  The ME and luggage service was more than “just a bus.”  It began the Disney bubble for us.  To arrive at MCO to be whisked away to the resort where our baggage would arrive soon after, and then on the way home to have baggage check in at the resort...those things made Disney stand out. It felt magical and special.   Same with free magic bands sent ahead to begin the excitement.  I felt cared about and I felt Disney knew my needs even before I did.  I am sad that those feelings may be gone forever. I am so incredibly sad.



Absolutely agree, the Disney bubble is a chunk of the magic.  I have enough magic bands that I can understand that cost cut and still be happy because getting one for myself and using my old ones was still inexpensive but losing the bubble and getting 7 people back and forth will be a pain and costly.  Even if it is $40 each way....well times that by 7 and then I could rent a van and pay for the gas for cheaper for the whole trip so I may as well rent and stay off site when the magical bubble is gone


----------



## JETSDAD

princesslover said:


> Focusing  on cost of the Uber misses the larger point. I don’t think it’s the cost that is the tipping point. It’s the slow loss of that exceptional Disney guest service.  This is a big one.


Yes but this is what people say every time something like this happens.  And yet attendance kept increasing, more DVC resorts kept being built, etc.  Watch they'll announce the opening of Rat ride in the next couple of days and this will blow over. Within a couple of years this will just be another thing that some people remember as having been something that used to be offered while new guests won't even know it was a thing.


----------



## CastAStone

TCRAIG said:


> Are we sure it’s not just the ‘Complimentary’ part of DME that’s going away?


Effectively that’s what’s happening. Mears (who operates DME) immediately announced they would continue to provide service between WDW and MCO.

They currently charge $40 per adult and $30 per child for their Universal service.


----------



## Lorana

princesslover said:


> Focusing  on cost of the Uber misses the larger point. I don’t think it’s the cost that is the tipping point. It’s the slow loss of that exceptional Disney guest service.  This is a big one.


On one hand, I remember when Disney first starting offering Magical Express, because they didn't used to -- it was huge, because not having to rent a car was a gufe savings!  Also, it meant we spent MORE TIME AT DISNEY, because without that rental car, we were no longer tempted to go to other theme parks and attractions, and I think they forget that creating that bubble means more profit for them.

On the other hand, I agree with the erosion of the Magical Experience, especially now with the loss of Extra Magic Hours.  For my family, the extra 30 minutes at the beginning of the day is useless.  My husband and boys are NOT morning people.  If I can get us all up, showered, fed, and at a park before 10-11am, it's a freaking miracle.  ;-)  We don't want to have to pay for extra evening hours.  It is feeling a little like all the extra perks they did to make disney unique and special are going away.  They're even shuttering Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom!!


----------



## princesslover

Lorana said:


> On one hand, I remember when Disney first starting offering Magical Express, because they didn't used to -- it was huge, because not having to rent a car was a gufe savings!  Also, it meant we spent MORE TIME AT DISNEY, because without that rental car, we were no longer tempted to go to other theme parks and attractions, and I think they forget that creating that bubble means more profit for them.
> 
> On the other hand, I agree with the erosion of the Magical Experience, especially now with the loss of Extra Magic Hours.  For my family, the extra 30 minutes at the beginning of the day is useless.  My husband and boys are NOT morning people.  If I can get us all up, showered, fed, and at a park before 10-11am, it's a freaking miracle.  ;-)  We don't want to have to pay for extra evening hours.  It is feeling a little like all the extra perks they did to make disney unique and special are going away.  They're even shuttering Sorcerers of the Magic Kingdom!!


Same with our family. I have two teenaged daughters that do not want to get up.  This last trip (December) they did fairly well and we made rope drop most days but of course they were letting everyone in early so we were still “late.” It is hard for us to get to the parks super early.  Add in any transportation issues and it can be a challenge.  Those 30 min will come and go before we get there.  I don’t know who is in charge of marketing right now but they are definitely not thinking of the guest experience.  And what a slap in the face to announce the disappearance of EMH along with the news of ME.  They acted like it was a new, improved service. Nice try, Disney.


----------



## ML_LovesDisney

gskywalker said:


> I agree, its not just about one thing.  Its they are cutting all of the differences that Disney used to have compared to non Disney resorts.  I can understand changes, certain cost cuts etc, especially right now but doing things like this just say to me, "what is the point staying on property anymore?" Plus this one is a gigantic difference for our family.
> 
> Over the last few years I usually sent down my senior mother and my special needs daughter and her wheel chair down for a few days every 2-3 months and didn't worry about it because I got them to the airport and disney got them back and forth, so there was no worries, no issues of my mother driving, getting lost, dealing with the luggage and my daughter's chair, etc. etc.  I remember when the kids younger what a nightmare it was even with my wife, myself and my mother to carry all the luggage and look after the kids, the Magical Express made such a difference that we always stayed on property so I would think they will lose a lot of young families.



Totally agree. I can see some of the cuts, like fireworks and entertainment due to COVID. But ME and airline check-in? It makes life so much easier with kids, elderly, and people with disabilities. I'm really surprised they are doing this. My DVC resale purchase is already in ROFR, and I had a fleeting thought today "I hope Disney takes it!"


----------



## ML_LovesDisney

CastAStone said:


> Effectively that’s what’s happening. Mears (who operates DME) immediately announced they would continue to provide service between WDW and MCO.
> 
> They currently charge $40 per adult and $30 per child for their Universal service.



Which is way more expensive than an Uber XL even. I don't mind Uber for myself, but my elderly in-laws definitely benefit from luggage service and ME


----------



## TCRAIG

CastAStone said:


> Effectively that’s what’s happening. Mears (who operates DME) immediately announced they would continue to provide service between WDW and MCO.
> 
> They currently charge $40 per adult and $30 per child for their Universal service.


Yikes - that expensive!


----------



## najgreen

CastAStone said:


> Effectively that’s what’s happening. Mears (who operates DME) immediately announced they would continue to provide service between WDW and MCO.
> 
> They currently charge $40 per adult and $30 per child for their Universal service.



Is that one way or round trip?


----------



## Spark65

Years ago there was no Magical Express you took the Mears shuttle, cab or rented a car and everyone was happy!


----------



## CastAStone

Spark65 said:


> Years ago there was no Magical Express you took the Mears shuttle, cab or rented a car and everyone was happy!


The year before they introduced DME rooms at the Contemporary Resort started at $239 which left a little more room in the budget for a rental car.


----------



## gskywalker

ML_LovesDisney said:


> Totally agree. I can see some of the cuts, like fireworks and entertainment due to COVID. But ME and airline check-in? It makes life so much easier with kids, elderly, and people with disabilities. I'm really surprised they are doing this. My DVC resale purchase is already in ROFR, and I had a fleeting thought today "I hope Disney takes it!"



I have had more than a fleeting thought that I hope disney takes it.  We will see if I change in a few days but as of now the plan is wait on it and then scrap getting a second contract.  We were considering direct for Riviera by the end of the month if this AKV contract was taken.  At $92 I expect it to be taken but we'll see.  Also had an offer out on another that I haven't cancelled yet in case it is just an initial annoyance.  I have my blue benefits for the AP's and that is all I really care about if all the perks are taken away.  I like staying onsite more, in the bubble, but Disney burst the bubble, so if I have to drive myself anyway I may as well stay offsite and save $1000's every trip.


----------



## emilymad

gskywalker said:


> I have had more than a fleeting thought that I hope disney takes it.  We will see if I change in a few days but as of now the plan is wait on it and then scrap getting a second contract.  We were considering direct for Riviera by the end of the month if this AKV contract was taken.  At $92 I expect it to be taken but we'll see.  Also had an offer out on another that I haven't cancelled yet in case it is just an initial annoyance.  I have my blue benefits for the AP's and that is all I really care about if all the perks are taken away.  I like staying onsite more, in the bubble, but Disney burst the bubble, so if I have to drive myself anyway I may as well stay offsite and save $1000's every trip.



We have a Riviera stay coming up in February as a test to see if we want to buy direct.  Before even getting there but I am pretty sure we will not be adding on.  To me the issue is not ME going away but the accumulation of things being taken away.  

And yes, we all survived before ME existed but the price of room rates and DVC contracts was very different.


----------



## EM Lawrence

We bought our first contract resale last year, and I have wanted to add another 150-200 points.  My spouse asked me to wait until after March, due to some financial decisions with his business.  I was itching to buy, now I’m glad we have waited.  Like the previous poster said, its not just ME going away, I feel like I did when they reopened after the Covid shutdown and announced all of the changes that would be taking place, including all of the live entertainment layoffs; I feel unsettled about the future experience at WDW.  We don’t even fly, so this does not affect me personally.  But between the inflated points in the 2022 chart, and the continued cuts to on-site perks, I’m not sure we will add those 150-200 points.

**Edited to add, this also makes me more likely to continue buying resale if I do add on. I’ve toyed with the idea of adding small contracts every year direct until I feel like I have enough. With resale, if you change your mind and decide to sell the math is much better on the exit.


----------



## Lorana

My DH and I have wanted to own DVC since around 1999.  We finally bought in 2019, twenty years later!  We have spent so much money at Disney over those 20 years, that I regret not buying sooner, but we were not in a position to financially do so, and the math just didn't make sense in my head.  

We also have THE WORST LUCK in the world.  It's a running joke in our family that Murphy (as in Murphy's Law) is the House Guest That Won't Go Away.

So naturally my DH is all "We bought into DVC, and now look what happened!"  ;-)  Seriously, though, I feel like we finally obtained our dream, and it feels like it's being pulled away from us.  We love Disney, but what we love about Disney is that escapism:  the immersive, over-the-top theming, the friendliness of the cast members, the entertainment and shows, all the little perks and things that make it seamless, easy, and enjoyable.  We've watched over the years as one thing after another went from "free" to "pay for" and while we both desperately hope that this is just "because of Covid" and will return to "normal" in 2-3 years, we also worry that we just spent a significant amount of money on DVC only for it to stop being the Disney we love so much.


----------



## mrte62

princesslover said:


> Same with our family. I have two teenaged daughters that do not want to get up.  This last trip (December) they did fairly well and we made rope drop most days but of course they were letting everyone in early so we were still “late.” It is hard for us to get to the parks super early.  Add in any transportation issues and it can be a challenge.  Those 30 min will come and go before we get there.  I don’t know who is in charge of marketing right now but they are definitely not thinking of the guest experience.  And what a slap in the face to announce the disappearance of EMH along with the news of ME.  They acted like it was a new, improved service. Nice try, Disney.


IMHO, the 30 minutes at each park is the first move towards parks closing early each day.  Then nights will all be hard ticket events.


----------



## Spark65

Lorana said:


> My DH and I have wanted to own DVC since around 1999.  We finally bought in 2019, twenty years later!  We have spent so much money at Disney over those 20 years, that I regret not buying sooner, but we were not in a position to financially do so, and the math just didn't make sense in my head.
> 
> We also have THE WORST LUCK in the world.  It's a running joke in our family that Murphy (as in Murphy's Law) is the House Guest That Won't Go Away.
> 
> So naturally my DH is all "We bought into DVC, and now look what happened!"  ;-)  Seriously, though, I feel like we finally obtained our dream, and it feels like it's being pulled away from us.  We love Disney, but what we love about Disney is that escapism:  the immersive, over-the-top theming, the friendliness of the cast members, the entertainment and shows, all the little perks and things that make it seamless, easy, and enjoyable.  We've watched over the years as one thing after another went from "free" to "pay for" and while we both desperately hope that this is just "because of Covid" and will return to "normal" in 2-3 years, we also worry that we just spent a significant amount of money on DVC only for it to stop being the Disney we love so much.



Michelle

Us Irish end up winning in the end. 

All the best
John


----------



## ofcabbagesandkings

I considered buying a resale AKV contract at the end of last year and even put a few offers out but they were still selling so high that my offers were too low. Now I'm glad. I've posted a lot about it on the ME thread in Theme Park Strategies, but if I'm looking at a contract as a 30 year investment, I want to know that WDW is still a place that cares about guests. I can't presume I'll always be as mobile as I am now, or that my mom, who has always accompanied us on trips, will be either. They've already reinstated executive pay cuts but axed a program that helped families with smalls kids, elderly or disabled guests, single women traveling alone, and foreign visitors feel welcomed and safe. Not to mention the ME greeters have always been some of my favorite CMs, always offering the little ones a high five to start their trip and a sticker. If the issue is Mears then WDW should start its own service and announce that they are doing so. They charge $900 for some nights for standard view at the Poly, for heaven's sake. A 100 pt contract at Riviera is over $18,000 not including dues. I can't imagine what they are planning to do to the point charts in 2023 and beyond, but I suspect that the trend of devaluing what you get  for your money will continue.


----------



## Fanofthegame

ofcabbagesandkings said:


> I considered buying a resale AKV contract at the end of last year and even put a few offers out but they were still selling so high that my offers were too low. Now I'm glad. I've posted a lot about it on the ME thread in Theme Park Strategies, but if I'm looking at a contract as a 30 year investment, I want to know that WDW is still a place that cares about guests. I can't presume I'll always be as mobile as I am now, or that my mom, who has always accompanied us on trips, will be either. They've already reinstated executive pay cuts but axed a program that helped families with smalls kids, elderly or disabled guests, single women traveling alone, and foreign visitors feel welcomed and safe. Not to mention the ME greeters have always been some of my favorite CMs, always offering the little ones a high five to start their trip and a sticker. If the issue is Mears then WDW should start its own service and announce that they are doing so. They charge $900 for some nights for standard view at the Poly, for heaven's sake. A 100 pt contract at Riviera is over $18,000 not including dues. I can't imagine what they are planning to do to the point charts in 2023 and beyond, but I suspect that the trend of devaluing what you get  for your money will continue.


Wow. $18,000 buy in plus maintenance dues for what amounts to air. Holy Toledo.  It's safe to say the middle class are being pushed aside.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

Fanofthegame said:


> Wow. $18,000 buy in plus maintenance dues for what amounts to air. Holy Toledo.  It's safe to say the middle class are being pushed aside.



DVC is a deeded real estate interest.  The value can be argued but it's not "air".


----------



## RoseGold

KAT4DISNEY said:


> DVC is a deeded real estate interest. The value can be argued but it's not "air".



And they send you a backpack.


----------



## Lumpy1106

CastAStone said:


> Effectively that’s what’s happening. Mears (who operates DME) immediately announced they would continue to provide service between WDW and MCO.
> 
> They currently charge $40 per adult and $30 per child for their Universal service.


That's one way?  Family of 5 - we're out.  You can get a decent sized rental car for < $50/day and you'd be able to make runs to the grocery store to stock the unit.  Add to that, you would be on your own schedule - no waiting for buses of any kind.  Honestly LOVED DME and being in the bubble when you step foot off the airplane, but looks like our '21 trip will be the last doing that.


----------



## Lumpy1106

RoseGold said:


> And they send you a backpack.


Don't forget the ice cream - guess you don't need to buy in to get that though.


----------



## CastAStone

CastAStone said:


> Effectively that’s what’s happening. Mears (who operates DME) immediately announced they would continue to provide service between WDW and MCO.
> 
> They currently charge $40 per adult and $30 per child for their Universal service.





Lumpy1106 said:


> That's one way?  Family of 5 - we're out.  You can get a decent sized rental car for < $50/day and you'd be able to make runs to the grocery store to stock the unit.  Add to that, you would be on your own schedule - no waiting for buses of any kind.


That’s round trip with taxes. But we always rent a car because we want that freedom anyway.


----------



## CastAStone

CastAStone said:


> That’s round trip with taxes. But we always rent a car because we want that freedom anyway.


And I just looked and they’ve updated their site (or maybe it was always there? I don’t remember seeing it before) with Airport to WDW prices -$30 kids, $39 adult, that’s round trip, PLUS taxes.


----------



## KAT4DISNEY

RoseGold said:


> And they send you a backpack.



My very first direct add on I got a tote bag.  When I did a couple additional add on's they had apparently decided those things were too expensive - nada, not even a pen.


----------



## Lumpy1106

CastAStone said:


> And I just looked and they’ve updated their site (or maybe it was always there? I don’t remember seeing it before) with Airport to WDW prices -$30 kids, $39 adult, that’s round trip, PLUS taxes.


Oh - that's comparable to renting a car then (maybe a little cheaper).  I think I'd still opt for the car.  Grocery delivery ain't all that - and it's pricey.  being able to run by a real grocery store would be worth it.  With limited bus seating we found ourselves ordering a Lyft a couple of times too.


----------



## CastAStone

Lumpy1106 said:


> Oh - that's comparable to renting a car then (maybe a little cheaper).  I think I'd still opt for the car.  Grocery delivery ain't all that - and it's pricey.  being able to run by a real grocery store would be worth it.  With limited bus seating we found ourselves ordering a Lyft a couple of times too.


Last time we went and my kid wound up needing to go to the doctor and while Disney offered a ride on their dime (we were at Kidani and the staff there was phenomenal at helping us deal with a suddenly severely ill child), I’m so glad we had a car. We went to the pharmacy after, went and got pedialyte, etc. I’m team car if I have the kids.


----------



## sethschroeder

Fanofthegame said:


> It's safe to say the middle class are being pushed aside.



I am not sure DVC was ever targeted at the middle class to start with. While prices used to be less you had to purchase more points as well.

Good thing is there is a resale market for people who do want to save more.


----------



## MICKIMINI

Lorana said:


> My DH and I have wanted to own DVC since around 1999.  We finally bought in 2019, twenty years later!  We have spent so much money at Disney over those 20 years, that I regret not buying sooner, but we were not in a position to financially do so, and the math just didn't make sense in my head.
> 
> We also have THE WORST LUCK in the world.  It's a running joke in our family that Murphy (as in Murphy's Law) is the House Guest That Won't Go Away.
> 
> So naturally my DH is all "We bought into DVC, and now look what happened!"  ;-)  Seriously, though, I feel like we finally obtained our dream, and it feels like it's being pulled away from us.  We love Disney, but what we love about Disney is that escapism:  the immersive, over-the-top theming, the friendliness of the cast members, the entertainment and shows, all the little perks and things that make it seamless, easy, and enjoyable.  We've watched over the years as one thing after another went from "free" to "pay for" and while we both desperately hope that this is just "because of Covid" and will return to "normal" in 2-3 years, we also worry that we just spent a significant amount of money on DVC only for it to stop being the Disney we love so much.


Thanks for articulating exactly what I was thinking!  We've been adding on rapidly as well, looking forward to long, leisurely retirement trips in the near future.   It is just sad and the magic is disappearing.  We toyed with the idea of buying another RV or a small condo in FL but decided to add on at DVC instead.  After 26 years of DVC, I'm wondering if we did the right thing?


----------



## Bruggok

KAT4DISNEY said:


> My very first direct add on I got a tote bag.  When I did a couple additional add on's they had apparently decided those things were too expensive - nada, not even a pen.


If DVC was smart they'd send  you a tote bag for every add-on above 50 points AND ask you for address of someone who might love DVC too, so they can send them one too.


----------



## princesscinderella

Bruggok said:


> If DVC was smart they'd send  you a tote bag for every add-on above 50 points AND ask you for address of someone who might love DVC too, so they can send them one too.


 Same here bought VGF direct as soon as they went on sale to members and I asked my guide if they were giving any merchandise with the purchase like they do when you buy on a cruise and he said nope


----------



## Fanofthegame

RoseGold said:


> And they send you a backpack.


Wait. Along with air... you get a back pack?


----------



## Fanofthegame

Bruggok said:


> If DVC was smart they'd send  you a tote bag for every add-on above 50 points AND ask you for address of someone who might love DVC too, so they can send them one too.


Cheap. Hey I spent 15 minutes with my AAA insurance agent and I got a nice heavy duty totes bag.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

Fanofthegame said:


> Wow. $18,000 buy in plus maintenance dues for what amounts to air. Holy Toledo.  It's safe to say the middle class are being pushed aside.



OTOH, calculating buy-in and dues, I've been paying about $130 / night for Boardwalk.  Sooooo.....

Lots to be pissed about right now, but in the end, most of us are still getting a good discount on rooms.  

I'd say the hard part for us middle class is the upfront chunk of change.  However, assuming someone is already making an annual WDW trip, one could forego their vacation for a couple of years and it wouldn't be too hard to come up with.  

Choices.


----------



## Red Dog Run

I agree on Fanofthegame's opinon of the dvc bag.

The bag is very cheap- even cheap looking. Using it to store the Disney paperwork stuff, like the deeds, dues, etc. All of a sudden, it began to burst at the seams!  I'd better empty it by only using it for my annual passes...  Hence, it is empty.


----------



## bookwormde

DVC tracking 2021



Below is my tracking for Jan 2021

The methodology is somewhat different for what did in March through August 2020

I have included contracts that have had their price changes included so the separate report for that is discontinued.

I am also going to begin tracking the number active contracts for each resort at the end of each month also as well as the change from the previous month.

Fidelity changed their site, so January data from them is somewhat suspect, this should resolve in February.

As a reminder this data only represents 5 sites that can be tracked for listing time sequence

I also do not track RIV or VGC due to the thin market

I am also going to add some commentary at the bottom when I see something notable.



The format will be this months average, change from previous month the number of contacts listed or changed (or in the case of the January report from last August, the number of active contracts at the end of the month and on the February report the change in active contracts



Resort,               Average list,      change,     count,     change,      active,

AKV                     119                      -3                77         -7              35

AUL                     105                      +5               40         +14           18

BLT                      159                      +6               40         +1             27

BCV                     152                       -2               41         +19           29

BWV                   132                       +4              44         +31            31

BRV                     113                       +3             23          -2              13

CCV                     155                         0             34           +8             53

VGF                     182                       +6             40           +6             19

HH                        81                        +3             24           -5              46

OKW                  105                        +2             74            +8            55

Poly                    155                        +2             70           +22          78

SSR                  114                          +8           98             -36            59

VB                     76                           +6           46             -16            46


----------



## EM Lawrence

I have not seen a large increase in contracts for sale, but I have noticed that a lot of contracts with DVC Resale Market are coming across as “relisted” in my push notifications. These tend to be contracts that were priced on the high side, IMO. I wonder if demand is beginning to slow slightly? It seems like it has remained relatively strong, certainly defying my expectations.  I would think the ongoing Covid lockdowns, economic uncertainty, the removal of on-site perks, and the diminished experience right now would be a perfect storm for flooding the market with contracts in an environment with little demand.  But I’ve been wrong so far!


----------



## eMoneyBug

bookwormde said:


> DVC tracking 2021
> 
> 
> 
> Below is my tracking for Jan 2021
> 
> The methodology is somewhat different for what did in March through August 2020
> 
> I have included contracts that have had their price changes included so the separate report for that is discontinued.
> 
> I am also going to begin tracking the number active contracts for each resort at the end of each month also as well as the change from the previous month.
> 
> Fidelity changed their site, so January data from them is somewhat suspect, this should resolve in February.
> 
> As a reminder this data only represents 5 sites that can be tracked for listing time sequence
> 
> I also do not track RIV or VGC due to the thin market
> 
> I am also going to add some commentary at the bottom when I see something notable.
> 
> 
> 
> The format will be this months average, change from previous month the number of contacts listed or changed (or in the case of the January report from last August, the number of active contracts at the end of the month and on the February report the change in active contracts
> 
> 
> 
> Resort,               Average list,      change,     count,     change,      active,
> 
> AKV                     119                      -3                77         -7              35
> 
> AUL                     105                      +5               40         +14           18
> 
> BLT                      159                      +6               40         +1             27
> 
> BCV                     152                       -2               41         +19           29
> 
> BWV                   132                       +4              44         +31            31
> 
> BRV                     113                       +3             23          -2              13
> 
> CCV                     155                         0             34           +8             53
> 
> VGF                     182                       +6             40           +6             19
> 
> HH                        81                        +3             24           -5              46
> 
> OKW                  105                        +2             74            +8            55
> 
> Poly                    155                        +2             70           +22          78
> 
> SSR                  114                          +8           98             -36            59
> 
> VB                     76                           +6           46             -16            46


Good stuff !  Thanks for the hard work.


----------



## bookwormde

EM Lawrence said:


> I have not seen a large increase in contracts for sale, but I have noticed that a lot of contracts with DVC Resale Market are coming across as “relisted” in my push notifications. These tend to be contracts that were priced on the high side, IMO. I wonder if demand is beginning to slow slightly? It seems like it has remained relatively strong, certainly defying my expectations.  I would think the ongoing Covid lockdowns, economic uncertainty, the removal of on-site perks, and the diminished experience right now would be a perfect storm for flooding the market with contracts in an environment with little demand.  But I’ve been wrong so far!


so far this year supply demand appears in balance overall, though there is a lot of variability between resorts

There are more contracts coming on the market, but then again it is January s0 sort of expected


----------



## Ginamarie

EM Lawrence said:


> I have not seen a large increase in contracts for sale, but I have noticed that a lot of contracts with DVC Resale Market are coming across as “relisted” in my push notifications. These tend to be contracts that were priced on the high side, IMO. I wonder if demand is beginning to slow slightly? It seems like it has remained relatively strong, certainly defying my expectations.  I would think the ongoing Covid lockdowns, economic uncertainty, the removal of on-site perks, and the diminished experience right now would be a perfect storm for flooding the market with contracts in an environment with little demand.  But I’ve been wrong so far!


I don't know if it's demand slowing or just people listing too high.  I've seen the list prices go up quite a bit since the fall and I think people just don't want to pay what's being asked.  Yes- ROFR has been used more and Disney is raising the direct pricing, but I don't think people want to pay more on the resale market yet.


----------



## HappyDisneyWife

bookwormde said:


> VGF 182 +6 40 +6 19



Ugh. I feel like I just got slapped in the face ... again. 

Early 2020, we were considering which resort to add on... VGF was one of our top 3. During the lockdown, most resales seemed to be staying fairly steady. A small spike in AKV. No major drops... but VGF was heading down. It had been regularly listing in the 150-160s and was suddenly listing in the 140s, with many in the 130s! Listing!! And ROFR was shut down. We weren’t ready to pull the trigger quite yet though. So we waited a few months... by then, VGF prices were already on the rebound... and the icing? ROFR was back.  I couldn’t handle the thought of paying $20-30 more pp than it had just been, so I chose one of the other resorts.... _oh, if I’d only known how quickly it would jump even higher!!!! _

Even if a person was buying for speculation (& not for vacation use)- that was the right resort at the right time- and I was right there. Watching from the sidelines, and not doing anything about it.

Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months _after_ the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months _beforehand,_ so we’ll be ready!


----------



## bookwormde

HappyDisneyWife said:


> Ugh. I feel like I just got slapped in the face ... again.
> 
> Early 2020, we were considering which resort to add on... VGF was one of our top 3. During the lockdown, most resales seemed to be staying fairly steady. A small spike in AKV. No major drops... but VGF was heading down. It had been regularly listing in the 150-160s and was suddenly listing in the 140s, with many in the 130s! Listing!! And ROFR was shut down. We weren’t ready to pull the trigger quite yet though. So we waited a few months... by then, VGF prices were already on the rebound... and the icing? ROFR was back.  I couldn’t handle the thought of paying $20-30 more pp than it had just been, so I chose one of the other resorts.... _oh, if I’d only known how quickly it would jump even higher!!!! _
> 
> Even if a person was buying for speculation (& not for vacation use)- that was the right resort at the right time- and I was right there. Watching from the sidelines, and not doing anything about it.
> 
> Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months _after_ the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months _beforehand,_ so we’ll be ready!


I will be generating a DIS ROFR report which is more of real world reference since I think a fair amount of the VGF listing are in the if you want  to pay me a silly price I will sell

Part of the ROFR report will show how much less the selling prices are vs listing prices.

AKV as hot 9 months ago, now it is VGF, 6 months from now it will be something else 

Is CCV one that you are looking at? if so that inventory is growing

If you want buying resale to be fun, you have to have a sense of humor so you seam on the right track


----------



## poofyo101

HappyDisneyWife said:


> Ugh. I feel like I just got slapped in the face ... again.
> 
> Early 2020, we were considering which resort to add on... VGF was one of our top 3. During the lockdown, most resales seemed to be staying fairly steady. A small spike in AKV. No major drops... but VGF was heading down. It had been regularly listing in the 150-160s and was suddenly listing in the 140s, with many in the 130s! Listing!! And ROFR was shut down. We weren’t ready to pull the trigger quite yet though. So we waited a few months... by then, VGF prices were already on the rebound... and the icing? ROFR was back.  I couldn’t handle the thought of paying $20-30 more pp than it had just been, so I chose one of the other resorts.... _oh, if I’d only known how quickly it would jump even higher!!!! _
> 
> Even if a person was buying for speculation (& not for vacation use)- that was the right resort at the right time- and I was right there. Watching from the sidelines, and not doing anything about it.
> 
> Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months _after_ the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months _beforehand,_ so we’ll be ready!


If you want the best deal. You have to be ready to go at all times.


----------



## Evita_W

We own at VGC and I check in December of last year and we could sell for a little over double what we paid, not sure where it goes from there, but considering they are still closed and going for that I am guessing it is staying fairly stable as the pricing was similar at the end of 2019 and both seem to be selling well at that price.


----------



## gisele2

RoseGold said:


> And they send you a backpack.


Or a pin...


----------



## gisele2

poofyo101 said:


> If you want the best deal. You have to be ready to go at all times.


That is what I did. Finally closing on the second one at my favorite resort BVC.


----------



## HappyDisneyWife

bookwormde said:


> I will be generating a DIS ROFR report which is more of real world reference since I think a fair amount of the VGF listing are in the if you want to pay me a silly price I will sell


That sounds wonderful!! Thank you for all your work! It really is very helpful.

& I totally agree. Current pricing is getting out of hand- I never pay asking.


bookwormde said:


> If you want buying resale to be fun, you have to have a sense of humor so you seam on the right track


So true!! 


poofyo101 said:


> If you want the best deal. You have to be ready to go at all times.


If I had unlimited funding, I totally would be!! 

However, if I miss out on “all great” VGF prices (like I did), then I go looking for a diamond in the rough at another resort high on my list (which I also did). There’s always a good deal to be had, and I’m super happy with all of our home resorts. It’s just much harder work, and not the huge upswing like that VGF scenario was.


----------



## bookwormde

Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track



Resort  ROFR   listing  difference

AKV       109         119         -10

AUL        75           105         -30

BLT         147         159         -12

BCV        134         152         -18

BWV      120         132         -12

BRV        93           113         -20

CCV        139         155         -16

VGF       167         182         -15

HH          76           81           -5

OKW      105         105         0

Poly       135         155         -20

SS           104         114        -10

VB          65           76           -11


----------



## heynowirv

bookwormde said:


> Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track
> 
> 
> 
> Resort  ROFR   listing  difference
> 
> AKV       109         119         -10
> 
> AUL        75           105         -30
> 
> BLT         147         159         -12
> 
> BCV        134         152         -18
> 
> BWV      120         132         -12
> 
> BRV        93           113         -20
> 
> CCV        139         155         -16
> 
> VGF       167         182         -15
> 
> HH          76           81           -5
> 
> OKW      105         105         0
> 
> Poly       135         155         -20
> 
> SS           104         114        -10
> 
> VB          65           76           -11


----------



## heynowirv

Based on that I'm very happy with our BWV contract that we picked up last  July.


----------



## Jmazzuca243

bookwormde said:


> Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track
> 
> 
> 
> Resort  ROFR   listing  difference
> 
> AKV       109         119         -10
> 
> AUL        75           105         -30
> 
> BLT         147         159         -12
> 
> BCV        134         152         -18
> 
> BWV      120         132         -12
> 
> BRV        93           113         -20
> 
> CCV        139         155         -16
> 
> VGF       167         182         -15
> 
> HH          76           81           -5
> 
> OKW      105         105         0
> 
> Poly       135         155         -20
> 
> SS           104         114        -10
> 
> VB          65           76           -11



Are these straight averages of listed/ROFR prices?


----------



## upritbass

Evita_W said:


> We own at VGC and I check in December of last year and we could sell for a little over double what we paid, not sure where it goes from there, but considering they are still closed and going for that I am guessing it is staying fairly stable as the pricing was similar at the end of 2019 and both seem to be selling well at that price.


VGC was selling for ~$185 at the end of 2019, whereas it is now $225-240 (small contracts on the high end). Buying DVC is kind of like planting a tree:
Q: When is the best time to plant a tree?
A: 20 years ago.
Q: When is the next best time to plant a tree?
A: Now.


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track
> 
> 
> 
> Resort  ROFR   listing  difference
> 
> AKV       109         119         -10
> 
> AUL        75           105         -30
> 
> BLT         147         159         -12
> 
> BCV        134         152         -18
> 
> BWV      120         132         -12
> 
> BRV        93           113         -20
> 
> CCV        139         155         -16
> 
> VGF       167         182         -15
> 
> HH          76           81           -5
> 
> OKW      105         105         0
> 
> Poly       135         155         -20
> 
> SS           104         114        -10
> 
> VB          65           76           -11


Thanks for all the data. Love your posts.


----------



## lovethesun12

HappyDisneyWife said:


> Does anyone else stalking watching resales ever feel this way? Or am I alone? Do you jump on those opportunities? It just seems like whenever I finally convince my husband we’re ready to pull the trigger, it’s a few months _after_ the best time has passed. Do you think another downturn is coming? Please tell me a few months _beforehand,_ so we’ll be ready!


Honestly, I just make the decision I feel most comfortable with at the time. I passed up some contracts last spring/summer that probably wouldn't make it through ROFR right now and it really doesn't bother me because at that time I didn't feel good about it.


----------



## sethschroeder

upritbass said:


> VGC was selling for ~$185 at the end of 2019, whereas it is now $225-240 (small contracts on the high end). Buying DVC is kind of like planting a tree:
> Q: When is the best time to plant a tree?
> A: 20 years ago.
> Q: When is the next best time to plant a tree?
> A: Now.



This is the gist of my travels with DVC over the last 14 months.

Bought two contracts in November 2019 at BWV. Sold both contracts in early April after stripping points from the contracts and still coming out ahead in total dollars spent.

Bought Riviera direct in August for $155/point and its about to cross $200/point the end of this week it sounds like for a base price.


----------



## bookwormde

Jmazzuca243 said:


> Are these straight averages of listed/ROFR prices?


I average each of the 2 months and then take the average of those 2 numbers


----------



## Jmazzuca243

bookwormde said:


> I average each of the 2 months and then take the average of those 2 numbers


 
I like the the simplicity of the analysis but I think it overlooks several large factors.

1. Small (<100 points)/large contracts (>300 points) can be priced significantly different the average contracts. Depending on when you got these numbers, the ratio of small/large contracts is probably skewing the average.  My guess is that the large number of small contracts is actually increasing the average compared to the number of small contracts that are posted on ROFR.  For a more accurate comparison, I think you should only include contracts of typical size (100-300 points).

2. Fully loaded and stripped contracts have different values.  For example, if all the contracts are fully loaded, the higher price would suggest prices increased, when in reality they have not.  In this case, you would need to adjust the price of stripped contracts upward for an even comparison.  For my VGF contract, I offered more than the average rate on ROFR for a fully loaded contract. But if I stripped the points (2019 and 2020 points) by renting them out at $15 per point, I would have a price per point that is lower than the taken contracts on ROFR that are similarly stripped. 

Thanks for these calculations. I think these begin to show some changes, but I caution anyone trying to draw insights from them without accounting for the above factors.


----------



## bookwormde

Jmazzuca243 said:


> I like the the simplicity of the analysis but I think it overlooks several large factors.
> 
> 1. Small (<100 points)/large contracts (>300 points) can be priced significantly different the average contracts. Depending on when you got these numbers, the ratio of small/large contracts is probably skewing the average.  My guess is that the large number of small contracts is actually increasing the average compared to the number of small contracts that are posted on ROFR.  For a more accurate comparison, I think you should only include contracts of typical size (100-300 points).
> 
> 2. Fully loaded and stripped contracts have different values.  For example, if all the contracts are fully loaded, the higher price would suggest prices increased, when in reality they have not.  In this case, you would need to adjust the price of stripped contracts upward for an even comparison.  For my VGF contract, I offered more than the average rate on ROFR for a fully loaded contract. But if stripped the points (2019 and 2020 points) by renting them out at $15 per point, I would have a price per point that is lower than taken contracts.
> 
> Thanks for these calculations. I think these begin to show some changes, but I caution anyone trying to draw insights from them without accounting for the above factors.


yes there will be significant variably base on the factors you mentioned and others, so it is best to look at longer term trends rather than single month or short term changes. The sample size for the ROFR data is also relatively small so that is an issue also.


----------



## What-r-ya Goofy?

bookwormde said:


> DVC tracking 2021
> 
> 
> 
> Below is my tracking for Jan 2021
> 
> The methodology is somewhat different for what did in March through August 2020
> 
> I have included contracts that have had their price changes included so the separate report for that is discontinued.
> 
> I am also going to begin tracking the number active contracts for each resort at the end of each month also as well as the change from the previous month.
> 
> Fidelity changed their site, so January data from them is somewhat suspect, this should resolve in February.
> 
> As a reminder this data only represents 5 sites that can be tracked for listing time sequence
> 
> I also do not track RIV or VGC due to the thin market
> 
> I am also going to add some commentary at the bottom when I see something notable.
> 
> 
> 
> The format will be this months average, change from previous month the number of contacts listed or changed (or in the case of the January report from last August, the number of active contracts at the end of the month and on the February report the change in active contracts
> 
> 
> 
> Resort,               Average list,      change,     count,     change,      active,
> 
> AKV                     119                      -3                77         -7              35
> 
> AUL                     105                      +5               40         +14           18
> 
> BLT                      159                      +6               40         +1             27
> 
> BCV                     152                       -2               41         +19           29
> 
> BWV                   132                       +4              44         +31            31
> 
> BRV                     113                       +3             23          -2              13
> 
> CCV                     155                         0             34           +8             53
> 
> VGF                     182                       +6             40           +6             19
> 
> HH                        81                        +3             24           -5              46
> 
> OKW                  105                        +2             74            +8            55
> 
> Poly                    155                        +2             70           +22          78
> 
> SSR                  114                          +8           98             -36            59
> 
> VB                     76                           +6           46             -16            46


Thank you for putting that together! Very nice!


----------



## bookwormde

A little commentary on January

AUL sales were much stronger with about 80% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month at the largest reseller..
HH  sales continue slow with about 30% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month
BWV sales continue  to slow with about 50% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month, this appears to be due more listing arriving at asking prices above historic levels.
The number of BCV listings is well above the average over the last year, and are similar to the comments for BWV
VGF sales continue strong with about 70% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month despite higher initial asking price
Poly sales continue  relatively slow with about 35% of the new listings in January being sold by the end of the month, there were a significant number of contracts that the asking price was lowered


----------



## bookwormde

I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.

I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful

Bookworm


----------



## limace

I am sorry to hear this!


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

You will be missed!! 

Thanks for you all your efforts/investments here.  You are the best!


----------



## EM Lawrence

I’ve enjoyed your information! Thank you for all you have done!


----------



## CastAStone

bookwormde said:


> I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.
> 
> I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful
> 
> Bookworm


Boo! Such a bummer but I hope you are well and have simply found something else to take your time. You have been appreciated!


----------



## starfrenzy

I am sad to see you go! Thank you for your contributions.


----------



## lovethesun12

bookwormde said:


> I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.
> 
> I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful
> 
> Bookworm


I have loved your contributions here so much, you will be missed. Thanks for all of your posts


----------



## CarolynFH

bookwormde said:


> I just wanted to let everyone know that I will no longer be posting on DisBoards.
> 
> I hope the data, analysis and commentary has been helpful
> 
> Bookworm


Thank you for your analysis.  Sometimes it made my head spin, but it was all very valuable.

Hopefully I'll run into you somewhere else on the internet!


----------



## MICKIMINI

I always looked forward to your posts! Thank you for being such a significant part of this disboard thread.  Best wishes to you!


----------



## CastAStone

Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

CastAStone said:


> Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.



Yeah.... I'm kinda wondering where everyone is going......?!


----------



## princesscinderella

4luv2cdisney said:


> Yeah.... I'm kinda wondering where everyone is going......?!


Me too and the mods


----------



## limace

Yeah, concerning to me, too.


----------



## CastAStone

princesscinderella said:


> Me too and the mods


I know the story with the mods and I am 99.9% sure these 2 are unrelated. Also don’t ask me about it on the Dis I’m not allowed to talk about it here.


----------



## dischris11

CastAStone said:


> Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics.


I'm really sad everyone is leaving. I'm newer here but I've learned so much from the folks that are saying goodbye.


----------



## Where'sPiglet?

CastAStone said:


> Gosh @i<3riviera and @bookwormde in the same month. *What a bummer for the DIS’ DVC analytics*.



No kidding! I missed that i<3riviera was leaving also.


----------



## CastAStone

Where'sPiglet? said:


> No kidding! I missed that i<3riviera was leaving also.


She (?) didn’t make a post about it but they blanked all their posts and are now posting somewhere else.


----------



## Mouse511

CastAStone said:


> She (?) didn’t make a post about it but they blanked all their posts and are now posting somewhere else.


Make you wonder ............


----------



## Where'sPiglet?

CastAStone said:


> She (?) didn’t make a post about it but they blanked all their posts and are now posting somewhere else.



Ah, I thought they had posted somewhere. I had seen some of the blanked posts, but they had posted more after blanking some previous posts, so I wasn't sure if they were leaving or not.


----------



## bookwormde

CastAStone said:


> Boo! Such a bummer but I hope you are well and have simply found something else to take your time. You have been appreciated!


Suffice to say that I felt that I was no longer free to provide my analysis and commentary with integrity on Dis


----------



## UF_Scott

bookwormde said:


> Below is a comparison of what contracts sold for based on data posted by dis members during the last 2 months in comparison to the overage listing price. For the resellers that I track
> 
> 
> 
> Resort  ROFR   listing  difference
> 
> AKV       109         119         -10
> 
> AUL        75           105         -30
> 
> BLT         147         159         -12
> 
> BCV        134         152         -18
> 
> BWV      120         132         -12
> 
> BRV        93           113         -20
> 
> CCV        139         155         -16
> 
> VGF       167         182         -15
> 
> HH          76           81           -5
> 
> OKW      105         105         0
> 
> Poly       135         155         -20
> 
> SS           104         114        -10
> 
> VB          65           76           -11


Thank you SOOOO much for doing this type of research. I hope to finally be in a position to buy into DVC sometime near the end of this year. I've been researching things, including this feed since it started, and I love having an idea what a truly fair offer would be when the time finally comes...


----------



## UF_Scott

bookwormde said:


> Suffice to say that I felt that I was no longer free to provide my analysis and commentary with integrity on Dis


And right after reading your previous post from a few weeks ago and commenting how awesome it was, I get to the one that say you will not be posting anymore... "Isn't it ironic... Don't you think?" - Alanis Morissette


----------



## kmorlock

Thank you @bookwormde!!!  You have been so generous with your research and analysis.  You will be missed by many.


----------



## kmorlock

As for the price of DVC, I’m no expert, just always looking for that “unicorn” listing.  From the sites I view, the volume of resale listings seems to have grown a lot.  I would think this influx would be like flooding the market and would decrease price per point sales but, I’m seeing just the opposite on many like OKW.


----------



## PhillyDVC

Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.  



ELMC said:


> You may very well be right.  To be clear, I think that prices will fall to about 50% from their highs, which puts BWV at about $65 and BLT at about $75-80.
> 
> So here's the deal...I actually do think that the shut down (in some form or fashion) is going to last 4-6 months.  I think that the damage to the economy will be irreparable in the short term and only somewhat devastating in the long term.  I think there is less than a 1% chance of a V-shaped recovery, I think it's going to take a decade to recover from this mess.  Finally, I think the number of people willing to scoop up bargain-priced DVC contracts is shrinking by the day.
> 
> All in all it's about as pessimistic a view as one can have about our current and future economic situation.  I'll be more than happy to come back on here in a year and say I was wrong.  But something tells me I won't have to.


----------



## Hopfather28

PhillyDVC said:


> Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.



There was a small dip but it was short lived to be certain and likely only caused by the fact that no ROFR meant people were lowballing distressed owners who wanted to offload.


----------



## Kickstart

Yeah, I think I posted earlier in this very thread how I was pretty sure prices would drop over the winter. Boy was I wrong about that.

I got lucky. I put in some low offers mid-summer and one was accepted.  I remember thinking no need to offer anything but lowball offers as I'd have plenty of options later in the year.  My accepted offer was submitted when ROFR was on hold but was still pending as it came back.  I feel like I just skidded under the wire.  I bought BLT, and it appears nothing under $150pp is safe right now.


----------



## Kickstart

So, what are everyone's thoughts on where DVC prices are headed now?

My guess is there will be renewed demand later this year, and into 2022, as those who stayed employed and built up savings (and/or saw their investments grow), and now with "covid cabin" fever create a surge of "irrational exuberance" on vacation spending.

On the contrarian side:

A good stock market correction could curtail the desire of the group above to spend more than typical on vacations.
There were lot of homes purchased this last year - I suspect people in this group aren't as likely to also purchase a timeshare over the next couple of years.
A lot of the country is still struggling, and this next stimulus is probably the last
DVC is overpriced (IMHO) - and with the cost cutting I wonder how quickly Disney can bring back enough of the magic.  I feel like the cost/value ratio was getting questionable over the last few years (prior to covid) , and now I question it even more.

Between these two pros/cons I'm thinking prices will stay high through mid 2022, but then flatten out (with resale possibly correcting some) for the next few years after that as Disney struggles to justify their premium prices.

But, who knows... I was completely wrong in my assessment over the summer


----------



## lovethesun12

Kickstart said:


> So, what are everyone's thoughts on where DVC prices are headed now?
> 
> My guess is there will be renewed demand later this year, and into 2022, as those who stayed employed and built up savings (and/or saw their investments grow), and now with "covid cabin" fever create a surge of "irrational exuberance" on vacation spending.
> 
> On the contrarian side:
> 
> A good stock market correction could curtail the desire of the group above to spend more than typical on vacations.
> There were lot of homes purchased this last year - I suspect people in this group aren't as likely to also purchase a timeshare over the next couple of years.
> A lot of the country is still struggling, and this next stimulus is probably the last
> DVC is overpriced (IMHO) - and with the cost cutting I wonder how quickly Disney can bring back enough of the magic.  I feel like the cost/value ratio was getting questionable over the last few years (prior to covid) , and now I question it even more.
> 
> Between these two pros/cons I'm thinking prices will stay high through mid 2022, but then flatten out (with resale possibly correcting some) for the next few years after that as Disney struggles to justify their premium prices.
> 
> But, who knows... I was completely wrong in my assessment over the summer


At this point I realize it's impossible to predict but fun to discuss at least 

The negatives are that the pandemic is not over, and while I am definitely way more optimistic about the whole thing it's hard to predict when it will be over (and considering it over might look different for everyone). If people are still worried about traveling internationally that could cause WDW to offer large discounts which could potentially impact DVC.

That said vaccines are also a pretty huge factor and they could be a game changer. If vaccine passports became a thing (probably won't) I do think that would make many more confident in traveling, on the other hand it seems vaccines are rolling out so fast the talk of vaccine passports probably won't even get started before anyone who wants a vaccine can have one.

Either way I do feel confident enough to buy right now though and have recently gotten rejected at ROFR, lol. I wouldn't necessarily expect an increase in my contract or anything but even with a drop in cost I think the value would be there at the right price.


----------



## Ruttangel

Kickstart said:


> So, what are everyone's thoughts on where DVC prices are headed now?


Hi @Kickstart!
I think there is potential for a different impact on resale prices by resort and over different timescales.

In 2020 you could get BLT for $120 (as you know!!!) but with ROFR being strong and direct pricing now putting it at $245ppp then it is now lucky to pass at $150.
I think the monorail resort pricing will continue to increase over next 2-5 years, probably out-pacing other resorts with the exception of CCV which I think will pick up over time as well.

My opinion on 2042 resorts is that Disney will stop buying back altogether at some point before 2030 and prices will take such a dive that owners will decide just to keep until the bitter end (unless the dues become truly insane). I don't think an extension would be offered, more likely owners might get $x a point discount off a new property with it's shiny new point chart.
The exception is OKW - I think Disney will start buying all those back so they can flip them to 2057 contract.

The contracts ending in 2054-2057 have some great point charts and might get a lot of demand if new resorts come online with very high point charts.

That leaves RIV and AUL, I've been wrong about RIV so far as the resale prices are still high, even with the restriction I think it is worth more than AUL, so probably will be $120 or so for quite a while.

In the UK they have announced an increase in business tax from 19% to 25% and with limited pay rises then disposable income will be going down. Will it be enough to reduce travel to WDW, probably not as people are craving escapism and new memories for the next 2-3 years.


----------



## Frederic Civish

I'm actually quite disappointed that prices didn't drop enough so that I could get that great deal that I have been looking for.  I want more.  I hoped it would cost less.

I should also say that it surprises me that the 'point rental market' appears to have remained fairly strong.  Am I wrong on that?

I ended up taking back some points from a few people who cancelled, and I refunded their money, then I used some of those points.  We made trips to DW in Feb 2020, July 2020, Oct 2020, Jan 2021 and March 2021.  I could have rented out a lot of those points, but we were enjoying them too much.

We just stayed at Boardwalk for the first time, and I loved it.


----------



## Aussie RJ

Frederic Civish said:


> I should also say that it surprises me that the 'point rental market' appears to have remained fairly strong. Am I wrong on that?


You’re absolutely correct, at least in my experience. I’m easily renting points for $15 - $18pp. We now have regulars who are constantly asking for points. The disappointment of missing out on travel has had its advantages.


----------



## ELMC

PhillyDVC said:


> Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.


It's been a year....I was wrong.


----------



## sethschroeder

ELMC said:


> It's been a year....I was wrong.



Me too not a bad thing though as my contract keeps its value then that I have left.


----------



## Evita_W

Brianstl said:


> Here is the list of average resale prices for  https://www.dvcresalemarket.com.
> 
> View attachment 482372


Is there a chart like this for Grand Californian villas?


----------



## JETSDAD

Evita_W said:


> Is there a chart like this for Grand Californian villas?



https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2021/


----------



## Evita_W

JETSDAD said:


> View attachment 567131
> https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-february-2021/


And Grand Californian appears to have increased sine February, looks the average is now about $250, which is well over 3 times what we paid when we bought in.

Of course nothing for Grand Californian is available direct and there is an extremely long waiting list.

On paper it would make sense to sell and buy Riviera, even direct and get about 100 points more (well maybe less depending on what the new incentives are), but we love owning Grand Californian. We just added on at Riviera though and went with direct, as the price difference between direct with the incentives and resale was so minimal.


----------



## upritbass

Evita_W said:


> And Grand Californian appears to have increased sine February, looks the average is now about $250


And small contracts are going for $270. Not to mention that the absolutely cheapest off-season studio is 17 pts/night mid-week...

But when that’s the only game in town, you gotta pay to play.


----------



## davidl81

I had not looked at prices in a while since I did an add on at SSR in August for $99 a point.  At the time I thought I may have paid a bit too much.  Well that same 175 point contract would sell for about $120 a point right now, so looks like I did buy at the right time, lol.


----------



## Frederic Civish

I find it amazing that DVC continues to keep its value and even increase.


----------



## ABE4DISNEY

Frederic Civish said:


> I find it amazing that DVC continues to keep its value and even increase.



I don't think any of us on this thread last year correctly predicted what is going on right now. ( I have one contract that I purchased then that has already appreciated $50 per point...too bad I'm not selling.)

Crazy times with the low inventory and definitely a seller's market.


----------



## Letsoflyakite

Frederic Civish said:


> I find it amazing that DVC continues to keep its value and even increase.


The value of having DVC will only increase as more money is printed and inflation rises, assuming of course people want to come to Disney.


----------



## jcourtney

I think a lot of people are sitting on a lot of vacation money that they didn't get to spend over the last year and are using this opportunity to buy DVC. That's what I did! lol


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

jcourtney said:


> I think a lot of people are sitting on a lot of vacation money that they didn't get to spend over the last year and are using this opportunity to buy DVC. That's what I did! lol



Yep.  Lot of people with excess vacation funds AND stimulus money and child tax credits they wouldn't normally get.  A family right on the $150K threshold just got A LOT of extra money.  Definitely enough for a decent resale contract.  

And don't forget about all the new day traders making a killing in the stock market.  And you've even got people unemployed making more than they did when employed.  

It's a crazy time, but I wonder how things will look in a year or two.  I do believe some people have gone a little crazy with their windfalls and will find themselves overextended and unable to take all these trips when the dust settles.  We shall see.


----------



## hhisc16

4luv2cdisney said:


> Yep.  Lot of people with excess vacation funds AND stimulus money and child tax credits they wouldn't normally get.  A family right on the $150K threshold just got A LOT of extra money.  Definitely enough for a decent resale contract.
> 
> And don't forget about all the new day traders making a killing in the stock market.  And you've even got people unemployed making more than they did when employed.
> 
> It's a crazy time, but I wonder how things will look in a year or two.  I do believe some people have gone a little crazy with their windfalls and will find themselves overextended and unable to take all these trips when the dust settles.  We shall see.


True about the extra funds!
My family bought a DVC resale with the extra funds since necessities are covered due to not losing either jobs.


----------



## DisneyMountainWoman

4luv2cdisney said:


> Yep.  Lot of people with excess vacation funds AND stimulus money and child tax credits they wouldn't normally get.  A family right on the $150K threshold just got A LOT of extra money.  Definitely enough for a decent resale contract.
> 
> And don't forget about all the new day traders making a killing in the stock market.  And you've even got people unemployed making more than they did when employed.
> 
> It's a crazy time, but I wonder how things will look in a year or two.  I do believe some people have gone a little crazy with their windfalls and will find themselves overextended and unable to take all these trips when the dust settles.  We shall see.



That is us, like almost to a T....well not 150k, we are 100k family and we bought because of all that and my husband put a little money in Gamestocks before it became huge thing. So yeah agree that description fits us really well and we just bought resale.

Luckily since my husband is accountant and we are splitting the costs with my parents so we are not over extending ourselves.


----------



## 4luv2cdisney

hhisc16 said:


> True about the extra funds!
> My family bought a DVC resale with the extra funds since necessities are covered due to not losing either jobs.





DisneyMountainWoman said:


> That is us, like almost to a T....well not 150k, we are 100k family and we bought because of all that and my husband put a little money in Gamestocks before it became huge thing. So yeah agree that description fits us really well and we just bought resale.
> 
> Luckily since my husband is accountant and we are splitting the costs with my parents so we are not over extending ourselves.



Congrats!  

Definitely what I'm seeing around me!  And, yes, for some certainly it was just enough of a little push to get them the cash for purchase and they will be totally fine. I'm glad I didn't come across harsh, because I certainly didn't mean to.   

We didn't benefit much from stimulus/gov't stuff, but my husband's company has done very well and they are great people who "share the wealth" and have given bonuses and raises.  I didn't lose my job, so no changes there.  We were contemplating an add-on, but more points = more trips and we just can't do it without the APs.  Ticket prices are insane.  And we have just cash-flowed one kid thru college and have another one starting.

My kids are on the losing end of things.  My just out of college really took the hit.  She should have tripled her income in 2020, but instead works her butt off for what still amounts to a part-time income or very low full-time income.  My younger D was the only teenager retained thru the pandemic at her job.  They adore her and are amazed at her work ethic for such a young person.  So, her reward was to work less hours / earn less money while her friends collect unemployment.  

So, I see all sides (those who really benefit, those maintaining and those that have lost so much) and it's just hard to wrap my mind around the different ways we are all experiencing this!

All that said, I definitely think it is fueling the DVC resale explosion.  I admit, I expected the exact opposite!


----------



## jmurray2446

Some of you already touched on this but I cannot believe how strong prices have held high, not only time shares but Stock Market, housing market. My circle around me, family and friends, seemed to have done better during the pandemic including ourselves. We find ourselves very grateful for the year we have had and understand that is not the case for everyone. That being said with "K" shaped economy right now the top earners and spenders are really driving up the prices, and the world didn't fall apart like so many people thought. I bet with inflation these prices will be high for a while. I really don't see a downtrend anytime soon. 
In 2009 I was working at Disney as a College Program, during the recession and that felt like Disney took a hit, it was noticeable. I really dont think we will see that again in the next year, quite the opposite actually.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

4luv2cdisney said:


> It's a crazy time, but I wonder how things will look in a year or two.  I do believe some people have gone a little crazy with their windfalls and will find themselves overextended and unable to take all these trips when the dust settles.  We shall see.


And that's when some of us will be poised to add on some more points.


----------



## davidl81

Grumpy by Birth said:


> And that's when some of us will be poised to add on some more points.


Short of a major recession you won’t see prices drop.  At best you will just see the increases stop and prices stay flat at some level.


----------



## Jmazzuca243

davidl81 said:


> Short of a major recession you won’t see prices drop.  At best you will just see the increases stop and prices stay flat at some level.



No one expected prices to rise as much as they did. Otherwise we all would have bought more points.  But one major factor is how does DVD respond with direct prices.  People are clearly willing to pay at current prices and with limited resale inventory, I think DVD will raise prices across the board.  They already increased prices on sold out resorts, but they could do it again (and with larger increases).  

Lets say they increase prices, resale prices typically follow direct price increases at some reduced percent (i.e., 60-70%).  So its not unrealistic to think that they may continue to increase


----------



## VdoesDisney

Jmazzuca243 said:


> No one expected prices to rise as much as they did. Otherwise we all would have bought more points.  But one major factor is how does DVD respond with direct prices.  People are clearly willing to pay at current prices and with limited resale inventory, I think DVD will raise prices across the board.  They already increased prices on sold out resorts, but they could do it again (and with larger increases).
> 
> Lets say they increase prices, resale prices typically follow direct price increases at some reduced percent (i.e., 60-70%).  So its not unrealistic to think that they may continue to increase


Either that or people will start to buy direct over resale as the gap gets smaller and smaller, either way Disney stands to gain from the resale market price hikes.


----------



## KayKayJS

Thoughts on Aulani? I know last year it seemed like 90 was around what it was going for, anyone know now? I see them at 120 listed but ROFR thread shows people getting deals for way less.


----------



## CaliAdventurer

PhillyDVC said:


> Going through this thread almost a year later. It’s crazy what people thought was going to happen to DVC resale prices. I would’ve never predicted the complete opposite as prices are at an all time high. The “addonitis” side of me wishes these price drops actually happened.


If there is anything that this forum has taught me is that the collective mind hive is almost always wrong.  lol


----------



## glamdring269

I was definitely wrong about where prices were going, at least in the short term. Still glad we sold our contract when we did as it was a 2042 and we immediately put the proceeds into the market.

I do think prices are inflated right now due to folks who didn’t lose in the crash sitting on a horde of discretionary income, both directly earned and part of the stimulus. That’s going to dry up in a year or so and we do still likely have a not insignificant portion of the populace who wasn’t so lucky over the past year.

Will be very interested in seeing how things look once all of this excess cash works it’s way through the economy.


----------



## ldo

Are the resales prices in chart quoted actual sales prices? If so, why the divergence from rofr reports? Esp for akv? Is that because most don’t report their purchases on disboards and it’s only the disboards readers/savvy bargain hunters reporting?


----------



## upritbass

Pfffft. Try VGC. Oh, wait, you can’t, there’s nothing available. At all. At any price.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

During the first few months of the pandemic, DVC was waiving ROFR on everything.  With basically all of the parks, resorts, restaurants, shops, etc. closed worldwide, they were hemorrhaging cash, so it makes sense they wouldn't buy back during that time.

I'm just curious why, pre-COVID, they weren't taking the opposite approach (i.e., buy back everything).  I understand that they ROFR contracts for points they "need" (i.e., someone wants to buy at a resort and they don't have the points to sell).  But given that the recent resale restrictions are clearly aimed at steering all buyers to direct (and assuming they have deep enough pockets again once we get past COVID), they could simply buy back all resale contracts and then direct would be the only game in town.

Now this comes with risk on their part.  They could be left holding a bunch of points they can't sell.  But for every contract that they buy back through ROFR, there was someone who wanted to buy those points.  If they can't get them any other way than direct because DVC always exercised ROFR, wouldn't a lot of those potential buyers be pushed to direct because that would be the only way they could buy?

This is not something that I'd like to see happen, but I'm curious about everyone's thoughts on why we haven't seen this already (again, discounting COVID circumstances) if the goal is to wipe out the resale market and have everyone buying direct.

I get that only buying back contracts at a low price point maximized their profit margin when they flipped those points for direct.  But if direct was the only possible way to buy because they took all resale contracts in ROFR, would the volume of buyers make up for the fact that they might be paying more for some of those resale contracts they ROFRd?  They would still always be paying less than they would charge once the points were converted back to direct.


----------



## Jmazzuca243

VdoesDisney said:


> What I don’t get is who is buying these contracts? At those prices I would go direct and avoid the hassle.



You are still saving some money by buying resale. For the VGF contract, you are still saving $37 pp. I’ll agree that It’s a lot lower than historical levels, but it’s still $3k in savings. For some people, that additional cost might be the determining factor. And the one group of people i think you are forgetting about are the brand new DVC members. They have to purchase a minimum of 125 points which could be too difficult compared to a smaller resale contract. So in this case, it maybe a smaller cost difference between direct and resale, but it’s a significant reduction in overall cost.

Resale - 80 points at 219 - 17,500
Direct - 80 points at 255 - 20,400
Direct - 125 points at 255 - 32,000


----------



## Pens Fan

Jmazzuca243 said:


> You are still saving some money by buying resale. For the VGF contract, you are still saving $37 pp. I’ll agree that It’s a lot lower than historical levels, but it’s still $3k in savings. For some people, that additional cost might be the determining factor. And the one group of people i think you are forgetting about are the brand new DVC members. They have to purchase a minimum of 125 points which could be too difficult compared to a smaller resale contract. So in this case, it maybe a smaller cost difference between direct and resale, but it’s a significant reduction in overall cost.
> 
> Resale - 80 points at 219 - 17,500
> Direct - 80 points at 255 - 20,400
> Direct - 125 points at 255 - 32,000



You are assuming someone _only_ wanted GF (which will probably be the case for whoever does make an offer on this one).  But if someone is flexible on their home resort, there are _many_ direct options for less than $219 pp (some significantly less).  I think that's what is hard for a lot of people to understand, myself included.  The only place I would even consider paying that kind of money for a resale contract would be VGC and then only if we lived on the west coast which we do not.

Your point about a new member having to purchase 125 direct points is a valid one.  Though I'd also have to point out that 80 points by itself isn't going to get you very far at GF without a whole lot of banking and borrowing.  But again, maybe someone just really, really loves GF and doesn't come very often (or is ok with short stays in studios)   .  Still, I can't wrap my head around $219 pp for a resale contract.

Nope.


----------



## VdoesDisney

Jmazzuca243 said:


> You are still saving some money by buying resale. For the VGF contract, you are still saving $37 pp. I’ll agree that It’s a lot lower than historical levels, but it’s still $3k in savings. For some people, that additional cost might be the determining factor. And the one group of people i think you are forgetting about are the brand new DVC members. They have to purchase a minimum of 125 points which could be too difficult compared to a smaller resale contract. So in this case, it maybe a smaller cost difference between direct and resale, but it’s a significant reduction in overall cost.
> 
> Resale - 80 points at 219 - 17,500
> Direct - 80 points at 255 - 20,400
> Direct - 125 points at 255 - 32,000


That’s fair, the ideal buyer for these is likely someone who wants a very specific resort and under 125 points, I just struggle so much with these prices.


----------



## Jmazzuca243

Pens Fan said:


> You are assuming someone _only_ wanted GF (which will probably be the case for whoever does make an offer on this one).  But if someone is flexible on their home resort, there are _many_ direct options for less than $219 pp (some significantly less).  I think that's what is hard for a lot of people to understand, myself included.  The only place I would even consider paying that kind of money for a resale contract would be VGC and then only if we lived on the west coast which we do not.
> 
> Your point about a new member having to purchase 125 direct points is a valid one.  Though I'd also have to point out that 80 points by itself isn't going to get you very far at GF without a whole lot of banking and borrowing.  But again, maybe someone just really, really loves GF and doesn't come very often (or is ok with short stays in studios)   .  Still, I can't wrap my head around $219 pp for a resale contract.
> 
> Nope.



You should always buy where you want to stay.  If you want to stay at VGF, you need to buy at VGF.  You might have a chance for a 1BDR at 7 months, but the points required would cost a significant more amount.  You could make your same comment about how its hard to understand why anyone would pay any amount more than the cheapest resort and use SAPs. But many dont like the availability of resorts at 7 months and the next couple of years are going to have limited availability at 7 months with the surplus of points.


----------



## Pens Fan

Jmazzuca243 said:


> You should always buy where you want to stay.  If you want to stay at VGF, you need to buy at VGF.  You might have a chance for a 1BDR at 7 months, but the points required would cost a significant more amount.  You could make your same comment about how its hard to understand why anyone would pay any amount more than the cheapest resort and use SAPs. But many dont like the availability of resorts at 7 months and the next couple of years are going to have limited availability at 7 months with the surplus of points.



Oh I agree about buying where you want to stay, but I'm not going to overpay to do it.   There are plenty of resorts we would be happy to purchase as a home resort.  If someone is dead set on GF or bust, they might think it's worth it.  Good for them.  It just wouldn't be me.

I'm honestly not trying to ruffle your feathers here.  I'm just pointing out that there are many options for buying direct that would be cheaper, have no restrictions, give you the direct perks, and you'd have your points in your account in a matter of hours after signing on the dotted line.  But if it's GF or nothing, then hey - go for it!  There's a contract out there for everyone.


----------



## dvc lover 1970

To the moon with doge


----------



## princesscinderella

It’s definitely getting crazy high resale.  I have noticed that inventory is getting a little bit better because people aren’t buying as quickly since they are getting priced so close to direct.  Unfortunately it creates a double edge sword because if prices are higher in resale and driving direct purchase then ROFR is going to increase for Disney to fill the demand thus keeping prices higher for resale.


----------



## CastAStone

ldo said:


> Are the resales prices in chart quoted actual sales prices? If so, why the divergence from rofr reports? Esp for akv? Is that because most don’t report their purchases on disboards and it’s only the disboards readers/savvy bargain hunters reporting?


Basically yes. Also the report comes from DVCRM which typically lists the most expensive contracts whereas people on the ROFR thread are buying from a variety of sites, many of which push lower pricing to drive faster sales.


----------



## RoseGold

Grumpy by Birth said:


> I'm just curious why, pre-COVID, they weren't taking the opposite approach (i.e., buy back everything).



Because they had several million RIV points, several million Aulani points, and reflections and DL tower starting construction.  They don’t want a $70/point spread from ROFR.  They want you to buy restricted points from the developer, the obvious business model, or at least they did then.

Reflections still had construction equipment until very recently.  That’s a long time later.


----------



## Lorana

RoseGold said:


> Reflections


Every time someone mentions this resort it makes me sad inside. I know it wasn’t for everyone, but a Wilderness themed resort with cabins, treehouses and a LAZY RIVER is all I ever wanted in a single DVC resort, and now it won’t happen. Because we all know that Disney doesn’t keep the same ideas if and when they come back again to a new resort. :-(


----------



## RoseGold

Lorana said:


> Every time someone mentions this resort it makes me sad inside. I know it wasn’t for everyone, but a Wilderness themed resort with cabins, treehouses and a LAZY RIVER is all I ever wanted in a single DVC resort, and now it won’t happen. Because we all know that Disney doesn’t keep the same ideas if and when they come back again to a new resort. :-(



Lots of lazy rivers nearby cheaper than Disney!


----------



## Lorana

RoseGold said:


> Lots of lazy rivers nearby cheaper than Disney!


Well, except that I cannot trade my DVC points into those property, nor are they Disney or onsite, which is my desire behind a Wilderness-themed DVC with a lazy river.  If you could take SAB and plop it at CCV/BRV, I'd be in heaven.


----------



## Grumpy by Birth

RoseGold said:


> Because they had several million RIV points, several million Aulani points, and reflections and DL tower starting construction.  They don’t want a $70/point spread from ROFR.  They want you to buy restricted points from the developer, the obvious business model, or at least they did then.
> 
> Reflections still had construction equipment until very recently.  That’s a long time later.


That's a good point about the resorts in active sales being essentially 100% profit rather than having to subtract the purchase price from ROFR and only making the difference.  So, their strategy seems to be striking a balance between steering new direct owners to non-sold-out resorts, while buying back sold-out resorts if they anticipate the need for those points to meet demand from people who want to buy direct specifically at that location.

The bigger incentives to buy at Riviera make it not that much more than some other resorts, but they still have a bigger profit margin because they already own those Riviera points, but might have to buy back points at one of the other resorts to fulfill a direct contract there, reducing their profits significantly if someone is buying at a sold-out resort.


----------



## BWV Dreamin

Pens Fan said:


> Oh I agree about buying where you want to stay, but I'm not going to overpay to do it.   There are plenty of resorts we would be happy to purchase as a home resort.  If someone is dead set on GF or bust, they might think it's worth it.  Good for them.  It just wouldn't be me.
> 
> I'm honestly not trying to ruffle your feathers here.  I'm just pointing out that there are many options for buying direct that would be cheaper, have no restrictions, give you the direct perks, and you'd have your points in your account in a matter of hours after signing on the dotted line.  But if it's GF or nothing, then hey - go for it!  There's a contract out there for everyone.


For me it was VGF (small contract) or nothing. And nothing is what I was seeing for resale VGF. What is/was out there was overpriced for resale and not much more for direct. YMMV.


----------



## M:SpilotISTC12

Am I nuts or is that extremely high!? 

Edit: Link Didn't add link originally since it wasn't a sponsored broker


----------



## Starport Seven-Five

M:SpilotISTC12 said:


> Am I nuts or is that extremely high!?


FYI:  Add a link to your post or it'll get deleted.  I went through that last week when I screenshot a couple listings from DVC Resale Market.

And yes, that is ridiculous.  Direct is $295 with a 25 point minimum for an add on...


----------



## CastAStone

M:SpilotISTC12 said:


> Am I nuts or is that extremely high!? View attachment 574839


Yes. $350 per point is extortion. It’s also way above direct (although Direct has no points) and above any reasonable break even metric.


----------



## M:SpilotISTC12

Starport Seven-Five said:


> FYI: Add a link to your post or it'll get deleted. I went through that last week when I screenshot a couple listings from DVC Resale Market.


Good to know. I wasn't sure since it was a non sponsored broker so I didn't put it to avoid it getting deleted.


----------



## Jmazzuca243

M:SpilotISTC12 said:


> Am I nuts or is that extremely high!?



Is it high?  Compared to other resorts - Yes it is.
Is it high for VGC? Maybe

I have been trying to get on the waitlist for VGC for a couple of years now.  I still cant get on it.  Finding a resale contract at VGC is hard enough.  Trying to find a small contract is impossible.  Im honestly surprised the resale market on VGC is not higher since you cant buy it direct.  The supply of VGC is so small, the price could even be higher than direct.

People will comment that this is way over priced since direct is $295.  But since you cant buy VGC direct, you have no basis to compare it to.


----------



## MomOTwins

Lorana said:


> Well, except that I cannot trade my DVC points into those property, nor are they Disney or onsite, which is my desire behind a Wilderness-themed DVC with a lazy river.  If you could take SAB and plop it at CCV/BRV, I'd be in heaven.


It does sound heavenly--I'm right there with you.  I know the contracts say not to base your decision on availability of future resorts, but that is definitely one of the bigger perks of buying direct.  I'm not too worried that it won't get built--I was worried that with the new cruise ship (Disney Wish) they would be cutting some corners due to their cash crunch, but instead it looks like they went ALL OUT and it looks incredible.  Reflections may get delayed, but when the do build it, I expect it will be spectacular. 



M:SpilotISTC12 said:


> Am I nuts or is that extremely high!? View attachment 574839


It's like upside-down limbo dance ("how high can you go?")


----------



## CastAStone

M:SpilotISTC12 said:


> Am I nuts or is that extremely high!? View attachment 574839
> 
> Edit: Link Didn't add link originally since it wasn't a sponsored broker


Sponsorship doesn’t determine linkability. Lots of brokers can be linked. The ones that cannot generally have broken the rules here. It’s TAs that we are banned from linking across the board.


----------



## RoseGold

Yea, that DL Tower pricing is going to be out of control.  I previously said BLT direct pricing.  I think I need to go up.


----------

