What are my chances at 7 months or.....

You have it a bit wrong. You want to stay at BWV.

The room booking category is where you're running into trouble. I'd imagine you'll find that Garden/Pool views @ 11 months would be much easier to get, not guaranteed but certainly pretty close.

Booking category based on view is never guaranteed. If BWV is where you want to stay in October, would you be okay using 29 extra points to secure the Pool/Garden. You'd have a much better chance of getting into BWV owning there than not.

As for BCV, it is a much smaller resort, making it much harder to get in period.

What I mean is: if I decided I wanted to stay at BWV for 2 weeks every other October (and was not really bothered about the view), the cheapest way to do this is buy enough points to stay 2 weeks every other year for 2 weeks - i.e a 78 point (call it 80 points) contract.

However if, even as a BWV owner booking at exactly 11 months I couldn't get this, then I would be a bit limited what I could then do...

I guess the sensible thing would be to buy enough points for a preferred room (107 points in the example above) and then if I was lucky enough to get a standard room, well that's some bonus points saved!

I think my main choices are BWV, BCV and BLT - mainly for the locations.
 
Limited, but you'll have options. You can buy enough points to be able to book a preferred view - and then if you get the standard view, save the points and go for longer, or get a bigger room once every three years (at least for a few nights), or bring a friend every few years (probably not for your whole vacation). Or you can do a split stay - if you can't the the full two weeks at BWV, you could book over at OKW, where the studios are about the same point cost, for part of the trip. Or you can do your whole stay at OKW or SSR (I think SSR is a few more points that BWV standard view, but I haven't looked for years - and I think OKW is a few less points). Or you can borrow points to do preferred view, then the next time you come back, spend two days at Universal to take your full two week trip but "catch up" on your points. Or you could rent out those extra points.

I wouldn't own SSR - its a great value, and it appeals to a lot of people, but it hold no appeal at all to me. I don't want to stay there. But it IS a great value, and it IS a lovely resort, and if the idea is to get a good value on property, its a good choice.

To some extent, it depends on your budget. If your budget is tight, go with SSR, buy in cost and dues are both lower. If you have a little room in your budget, buy BWV - enough points for standard view - or SSR or OKW - and then tweak your trips based on availability (you can always stay out at SSR or OKW - they are almost always available at seven months and have lower point costs).
 
I guess the sensible thing would be to buy enough points for a preferred room (107 points in the example above) and then if I was lucky enough to get a standard room, well that's some bonus points saved!
This would be the most reasonable option, around 100-150. I say 150 because the price of resale contracts drops for contracts above 100 points. And smaller contracts in the 50 point range is even higher per point.

If you book at exactly 11m 8am, and have some flexibility in travel dates, you will likely be able to get a BWV standard room studio. Even if you are not flexible in travel dates, but willing to switch rooms you can get a standard view for part of your 2 weeks.

You would not necessarily lose much money buying at SSR then selling it a few years later to buy BWV. You'd lose the $300-$500 closing costs/admin fees from buying SSR, the 10% commission when selling SSR and other seller fees. That should be well under $2000. When the time comes and the resale market is down, then the BWV contract would also be lower in price. So while you're selling at a loss, you'd be buying a "cheaper" BWV. Similar if the resale market is up.
 
Honestly I would buy where it's the least expensive.

It is so hard to really know for years and years what you will like.

We just do not see the appeal to the BCV for example over other resorts. The wear and tear on it, is in my opinion one of the worst. It is small, no real counter service, and not so great transport to MK and AKV, two of our favorite parks. There are no great views and some are really undesirable to me due to the fact it is so close to the road.

I find our stay at SSR as enjoyable as any others and at 7 months we have stayed everywhere.

As we age what we like has changed, so I would take Bill's advice and get SSR start small and visit around and then make a decision long term later on.

I agree. We try to stay at all of the hotels and I like to stay in all of them. I also am lucky enough to be in a family of DVC members who all have different home resorts.
 


One other thing to add that I didn't see posted yet-it also seems to depend on the size room you are looking for. Every year since 2010 I have gotten a 2 bedroom at BWV or BC during food & wine, during varying weekends each year, at the 7 month mark. I also wasn't picky on views or saving points. . I have read time and again over the years that it's so hard to get BWV and BC at 7 months during food & wine, that this year I added a 150 resale BWV to my already home resorts of SS and BLT. Like others, I like to walk back after a day of food and wine. Even though I have not had a problem at 7 months (exactly 7 months, 6am my time) at either BWV or BC the last 5 years, I wanted to make sure I would always be basically guaranteed accommodations at one of them at 11 months. Having bought BWV, I booked it and put myself on a wait list for BC for this fall with the thought that I'd always be able to get BWV in the future and possibly not BC. The wait list came thru within days. Again, each of these trips has been for 2 bedrooms, and have not had a problem yet. After reading the past couple of weeks about BC wear and tear, I'm kind of wishing my wait list had not come thru, lol, but we will have a great trip anyway. There has been great advice on this thread, just wanted to add my input since you seem to be flexible and not care about views so much, we have had great success 5 years running at 7 months with also being flexible and not caring about view. I will definitely go for BW view though next year as it will be my first time getting the opportunity at 11 months! Good luck!
 
My opinion is if you are great planners, 7 months to the day, you should be
successful!

I got 2 consecutive weeks at AKV value studio, one of the most difficul room to get. However it was September.
For the Friday of the 2015 marathon week end every studio was booked except SSR, even resorts and categories often open at 7 months.
So what you say it's true, but you must be flexible for some booking categories. For the most requested periods, your home resort will be all you can get.
 
just an fyi:
BWV BW view is often difficult to get, not just standard view (the amazing BW view :cloud9: costs the same amt of points as P/G view, and is a huge bargain).
there have been a number of times where BWV standard view and BCV studios were available, but BW view was not (since we only want BW view, we had to change our dates).
if you want BWV standard or BW view during busy times, buy there and be on the phone or online right at the 11 month mark - even hours can make the difference, especially if you need more than a few nights.
if you are really don't have a favorite (yet;)), buy where is cheapest.
 



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