VGF worth the Money ? Why I think YES!!!

[Johnny D]

interesting Stuff. I learned a bit, but have to disagree with many.

I totally agree you should buy where you want to stay. This could not be more true than VGF. It is the smallest DVC resort in WDW, only has 30 standard view studios (best value...standard views are terrific at this resort) and is 1/3 the size of BLT. As a test, every morning at 8 am go on your computer at your 7 month window and try to book a stay in a studio; standard or lake. You are wasting your time. There is a total of 10 days; 6 single days and 2 with 2 days together, mid week, from October 11th to January 3rd. That's it. Again, I know it is new, but the resort is only 35% sold out and 75% of the inventory is available to members. So my conclusion is that the excess available inventory, and people wanting to stay at the shiny new nickel place, will offset; and the difficulty in booking a studio at 7 months will remain constant.

The value will hold at this resort. Disney's flagship, smallest resort. Basic economic supply and demand. VGC is a good example. I believe 10 years from now prices will be around $130 secondary market.

For curiosity I talked to a couple resale companies, they believe so far VGF is bucking the trend with the limited amount of resales at this point compared to historic dvc resorts. The few resales they have had, have been somewhat stripped( none to limited current UY points, and some used from next UY) and are selling between $130 and $138.

To the person who said they don't believe most dvc members buy and hold long enough to get there value, I have owned BWV since 1999 and just read that 88% of OKW owners are original.

As far as buying SSR or OKW on the secondary market and saving all that money; that's a great option. But don't fool yourself that you be staying at VGF or the new Poly when finished, unless you get extremely lucky or you go after a very high point 1 bedroom or stay in the off off off season....Mid January and September most likely.

On the TMV. Ok let's factor it in. I don't think you can use the 8% number in the calculation...heck the market could crash and be down for a couple years. Let's use 5%, about double the 10yr T bill rate. I will pay $1084 in dues next year and 5% x $30,000= $1500 in opportunity cost or TVM. Not counting my initial buy in, the cost next year will be $2584 for 12 nights in a standard view studio. $2584/12 = $215.33 per night. I would still take that to stay at the VGF. God only knows what the GF will be in years to come to stay there.

Also, you would have to take the savings on annual 4 annual passes you get with the DVC membership and factor in savings on Grand Floridian rooms and throw that into the time value of money equation and the real cost of the room will be less than $215 a night. But I am tired, not that smart, and going to bed soon so I'm not doing the math.

What I don't understand is why people don't think you can't look at the rack rate or average cost to stay at the Grand Floridian to compare and see what your saving. Or people saying you could stay somewhere else cheaper. I could get a permit, and pitch a tent in a public park in Orlando, or bid on price line for a 3 star hotel for $40 dollars and say I saved money. But the GF is beautiful, Disney's flagship resort, small, high in demand and a place I want to take my 3 year old twins for years to come. Lastly, all the DVC resorts are not created equal, some will hold their value much better than others. Remember the golden rule.....location, location location.

 

[Dean]

interesting Stuff. I learned a bit, but have to disagree with many.

I totally agree you should buy where you want to stay. This could not be more true than VGF. It is the smallest DVC resort in WDW, only has 30 standard view studios (best value...standard views are terrific at this resort) and is 1/3 the size of BLT. As a test, every morning at 8 am go on your computer at your 7 month window and try to book a stay in a studio; standard or lake. You are wasting your time. There is a total of 10 days; 6 single days and 2 with 2 days together, mid week, from October 11th to January 3rd. That's it. Again, I know it is new, but the resort is only 35% sold out and 75% of the inventory is available to members. So my conclusion is that the excess available inventory, and people wanting to stay at the shiny new nickel place, will offset; and the difficulty in booking a studio at 7 months will remain constant.

The value will hold at this resort. Disney's flagship, smallest resort. Basic economic supply and demand. VGC is a good example. I believe 10 years from now prices will be around $130 secondary market.

For curiosity I talked to a couple resale companies, they believe so far VGF is bucking the trend with the limited amount of resales at this point compared to historic dvc resorts. The few resales they have had, have been somewhat stripped( none to limited current UY points, and some used from next UY) and are selling between $130 and $138.

To the person who said they don't believe most dvc members buy and hold long enough to get there value, I have owned BWV since 1999 and just read that 88% of OKW owners are original.

As far as buying SSR or OKW on the secondary market and saving all that money; that's a great option. But don't fool yourself that you be staying at VGF or the new Poly when finished, unless you get extremely lucky or you go after a very high point 1 bedroom or stay in the off off off season....Mid January and September most likely.

On the TMV. Ok let's factor it in. I don't think you can use the 8% number in the calculation...heck the market could crash and be down for a couple years. Let's use 5%, about double the 10yr T bill rate. I will pay $1084 in dues next year and 5% x $30,000= $1500 in opportunity cost or TVM. Not counting my initial buy in, the cost next year will be $2584 for 12 nights in a standard view studio. $2584/12 = $215.33 per night. I would still take that to stay at the VGF. God only knows what the GF will be in years to come to stay there.

Also, you would have to take the savings on annual 4 annual passes you get with the DVC membership and factor in savings on Grand Floridian rooms and throw that into the time value of money equation and the real cost of the room will be less than $215 a night. But I am tired, not that smart, and going to bed soon so I'm not doing the math.

What I don't understand is why people don't think you can't look at the rack rate or average cost to stay at the Grand Floridian to compare and see what your saving. Or people saying you could stay somewhere else cheaper. I could get a permit, and pitch a tent in a public park in Orlando, or bid on price line for a 3 star hotel for $40 dollars and say I saved money. But the GF is beautiful, Disney's flagship resort, small, high in demand and a place I want to take my 3 year old twins for years to come. Lastly, all the DVC resorts are not created equal, some will hold their value much better than others. Remember the golden rule.....location, location location.

I do think VGF will be difficult to get at 7 months out but not as difficult as you do, we'll see. As I noted, now is not a good benchmark for proving that question. Rack rate would only be applicable for calculating savings If you would have paid for it on cash not owning there, otherwise it's like MSRP on an auto. It may increase value but is not a savings. Savings is compared to what you would have spent not owning at VGF, IMO. But if one must use the rack rate, you'd need to use a discounted one to be reasonable. Given I've averaged 12% the last 5-7 years, I think an 8% assumption on long term invested dollars is being conservative. I'd be willing to bet that not only will there be success stories for non home resort owners at VGF but there will eventually be RCI deposits/trades as well.

 

[BenDiscipio]

I do think VGF will be difficult to get at 7 months out but not as difficult as you do, we'll see. As I noted, now is not a good benchmark for proving that question. Rack rate would only be applicable for calculating savings If you would have paid for it on cash not owning there, otherwise it's like MSRP on an auto. It may increase value but is not a savings. Savings is compared to what you would have spent not owning at VGF, IMO. But if one must use the rack rate, you'd need to use a discounted one to be reasonable. Given I've averaged 12% the last 5-7 years, I think an 8% assumption on long term invested dollars is being conservative. I'd be willing to bet that not only will there be success stories for non home resort owners at VGF but there will eventually be RCI deposits/trades as well.

Dean, you're deluding yourself if you think VGF studios are going to be available at 7 months. I've been checking multiple times at 11 months, and I'll tell you, if you don't book right away at 11 months, you've lost the opportunity and it's getting worse...and for Christmas and high demand times, you'd better walk your reservation. It's a fact. We're seeing this now with less than half the place sold. Double that, and it will be very difficult for even a VGF owner to book there unless they are very prepared.

As for your calculations, I love how you always use the highest figures when talking about dvc cost, but when calculating value, you use lowest cost. It just doesn't work like that. That's like someone saying they just got a deal on a Mercedes, and you coming along and saying they didn't because they payed more than they would have paid by buying a Honda. Value and savings don't work like that. You ACTUALLY have a Mercedes....It's a deal because you saved money.

Buyers at VGF ACTUALLY own at VGF....so the only savings you can calculate it from would be the real costs of STAYING at the VGF...because that's where they are staying. If your contention is that they would have stayed at POR, I can't help you....because the FACT is that they WILL be staying at the Grand! That's the savings, my friend.

Just because I was thinking of buying a Honda, then got a great deal on a Mercedes....doesn't make it a bad deal....because I ACTUALLY have a Mercedes. Your calculation is merely a savings question on having A car....

 

[Johnny D]

Well said Ben! Let's grab a beer and invite Dean to join us over at the Grand next December. I know he won't be staying there, but we will give him a temporary pass!! LOL

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

Im going to stick my neck out here a little.. 1st of all we just bought in at the VGF last week..

This was after MANY posts of its a good idea or not.. Most of which Dean weighed in on. And was one of the few that check back and answer questions
It had gotten to the point that I HATED his is name pop up on my threads.. Sorry dean, but true!
I would swear up and down he was a broker on a resale site.. Just based on the way he pushes resale..
However after realizing I was being silly.. And all he was really explaining was if you want to own, this is the BEST price to do so at..
I was able to truly look over ( no emotion) what we were buying. And if it was really worth it to us.. And I thank dean for that..

Now that being said,
My DH and I factor every number out to the 10th degree!

We added value to the contract b/c it has the full 50 years.. (We are young, and plan to use all 50!)

Added a little value to it for emotional reason (yes, dean I know your screaming at the screen)
But like others have said, SSR just had no value for us.. And I didn't want to spend my vacation wishing I had bought somewhere else!

So after factoring in how we would use our points,
we choose to go with 150p vs. 200 and get 100 AKL on the resale. (Which I'm finding VERY difficult to do right now) But am trying play the waiting game..



I feel if dean had not weighted in , we would have gotten 200p. At the VGF instead of ending up with 250 in total!
So dean I know your the voice of resale here on the DIS..
I have grown to like you , and since we are now looking at spending about $200-$300 more then originally planned DH still hates you.. J/k
Dean does offer good information, altho pushes Resales for those who maybe pixie dust blinded..

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

Dean, you're deluding yourself if you think VGF studios are going to be available at 7 months. I've been checking multiple times at 11 months, and I'll tell you, if you don't book right away at 11 months, you've lost the opportunity and it's getting worse...and for Christmas and high demand times, you'd better walk your reservation. It's a fact. We're seeing this now with less than half the place sold. Double that, and it will be very difficult for even a VGF owner to book there unless they are very prepared. As for your calculations, I love how you always use the highest figures when talking about dvc cost, but when calculating value, you use lowest cost. It just doesn't work like that. That's like someone saying they just got a deal on a Mercedes, and you coming along and saying they didn't because they payed more than they would have paid by buying a Honda. Value and savings don't work like that. You ACTUALLY have a Mercedes....It's a deal because you saved money. Buyers at VGF ACTUALLY own at VGF....so the only savings you can calculate it from would be the real costs of STAYING at the VGF...because that's where they are staying. If your contention is that they would have stayed at POR, I can't help you....because the FACT is that they WILL be staying at the Grand! That's the savings, my friend. Just because I was thinking of buying a Honda, then got a great deal on a Mercedes....doesn't make it a bad deal....because I ACTUALLY have a Mercedes. Your calculation is merely a savings question on having A car....

Meant to add... I wanted a Mercedes (VGF), and that's what I got!!
Yes it was more, but worth it to me!

Yes a car is a car, and a room is a room... But never is a Mercedes a honda...

So even tho we paid more.. I'm happy, and that's what matters the most.. (Even if it is emotional)

 

[BenDiscipio]

Meant to add... I wanted a Mercedes (VGF), and that's what I got!!
Yes it was more, but worth it to me!

Yes a car is a car, and a room is a room... But never is a Mercedes a honda...

So even tho we paid more.. I'm happy, and that's what matters the most.. (Even if it is emotional)

That's the part that I think he's missing. Not all DVC owners (in fact, I'd say substantially less than he thinks is the case) buy into DVC just to stay on property at WDW. They are buying to stay at a particular resort. Not everybody likes to resort hop, especially when they've bought at the top of the food chain. Trading to other DVC's from the Grand is like trading into RCI...you're giving up value. I've stayed at AKL and enjoyed it, but it can't compare to the Grand. If I want to stay there in the future, I'll rent out my points, then rent last minute points for $9-10/point and stay at AKL. There are ALWAYS rooms available there.

I will say that I feel badly for anyone paying current direct prices for places like AKL, which are more than 2x resale prices, and rooms are always available there. That's where sentiment has interfered with prudent decision-making. Value and pricing is directly related to supply/demand.

VGF is the smallest DVC property in the flagship resort of WDW. That's unbeatable conditions for sustained value....I would even suspect resales will exceed 130 in 10 years as direct prices continue to skyrocket. You see that increased value in other DVC's that have similar supply/demand scenarios....Like Beach Club....where current resales exceed original price.

 

[chukdotcom]

Im going to stick my neck out here a little.. 1st of all we just bought in at the VGF last week..

This was after MANY posts of its a good idea or not.. Most of which Dean weighed in on. And was one of the few that check back and answer questions
It had gotten to the point that I HATED his is name pop up on my threads.. Sorry dean, but true!
I would swear up and down he was a broker on a resale site.. Just based on the way he pushes resale..
However after realizing I was being silly.. And all he was really explaining was if you want to own, this is the BEST price to do so at..
I was able to truly look over ( no emotion) what we were buying. And if it was really worth it to us.. And I thank dean for that..

Now that being said,
My DH and I factor every number out to the 10th degree!

We added value to the contract b/c it has the full 50 years.. (We are young, and plan to use all 50!)

Added a little value to it for emotional reason (yes, dean I know your screaming at the screen)
But like others have said, SSR just had no value for us.. And I didn't want to spend my vacation wishing I had bought somewhere else!

So after factoring in how we would use our points,
we choose to go with 150p vs. 200 and get 100 AKL on the resale. (Which I'm finding VERY difficult to do right now) But am trying play the waiting game..



I feel if dean had not weighted in , we would have gotten 200p. At the VGF instead of ending up with 250 in total!
So dean I know your the voice of resale here on the DIS..
I have grown to like you , and since we are now looking at spending about $200-$300 more then originally planned DH still hates you.. J/k
Dean does offer good information, altho pushes Resales for those who maybe pixie dust blinded..

I think the reason for the dean "hate" is that he tells people what they don't want to hear. If you've already bought AKV direct, you want to find any way to convince yourself that it was a good idea. If you are looking to buy, you really want to believe you are saving money and will "omit" certain variable to justify your decision. The reality is, I don't think most people do "honest" math when they are buying. They do the math that justifies what they already want to do.

 

[BenDiscipio]

I think the reason for the dean "hate" is that he tells people what they don't want to hear. If you've already bought AKV direct, you want to find any way to convince yourself that it was a good idea. If you are looking to buy, you really want to believe you are saving money and will "omit" certain variable to justify your decision. The reality is, I don't think most people do "honest" math when they are buying. They do the math that justifies what they already want to do.

Nah, while I feel for folks that buy AKV at current direct prices, they are still going to save money over time....the purchase price is still a small percentage of the overall outlay of cash for DVC...it's just that they could have paid less. Still not a bad decision. I just don't think buying into DVC is a bad decision at any point....it's just a matter of how much you are going to save. Of course, if you buy into AKL direct and then sell 5 years later....well, that's not very smart.

Nobody "hates" Dean.....he's just a Debbie Downer.....or Dean Downer....and he talks like his truth is the only truth...and it isn't so....it's fun with statistics folks. An intelligent person can make statistics prove anything they want them to prove.... Dean uses it to make people feel like they were taken. The truth is that most current DVC owners are quite happy....

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

The reality is, I don't think most people do "honest" math when they are buying. They do the math that justifies what they already want to do.

I think A LOT of the debate/fighting happens B/c people value things differently...

But just like Some believe to add Time money value, and some think the upfront cost is a stunk cost.. :-/


-We had to add value for the use of the full 50 years.. (A lot of people didn't like that I added this in)
But my family has been in love with Disney LONG before I was even born.. My mother and uncle sang as part of a children choir at disneyland..
They all had AP growling up!.. My mom would take us to DL every chance she got..
So for those that think love of Disney will fade, it hasn't yet! And I'm now recruiting people! Since I've move New England my friends who all thought I was crazy for going to Disney so much. Now go more than I do, with planning help from me!

-Also we had to add value for being the GF.. Which is where we would prefer to stay over any other resort..
Where has if I bought at SSR, I would probably have to spend my time at the 7mo. Window, not being able to get the VGF..
Which would make me regret my purchase.. <<<< which is what dean doesn't want anyone to feel... ;-)


- Also we DID NOT add in the resale value will hold better at VGF..
I can see where this maybe true and is nice to know.. Since we added value for all 50 years and no intention of selling..
We didn't feel it was fair to add a resale value as well..

But even without it, we felt VGF was the best fit for our family..
Location, room, time, and money is exactly what we wanted out DVC..
Where has other resorts were lacking in a most of these areas..

 

[chukdotcom]

I think A LOT of the debate/fighting happens B/c people value things differently...

It's math. It can't be different. But it CAN be incomplete.

 

[Dean]

Dean, you're deluding yourself if you think VGF studios are going to be available at 7 months. I've been checking multiple times at 11 months, and I'll tell you, if you don't book right away at 11 months, you've lost the opportunity and it's getting worse...and for Christmas and high demand times, you'd better walk your reservation. It's a fact. We're seeing this now with less than half the place sold. Double that, and it will be very difficult for even a VGF owner to book there unless they are very prepared.

As for your calculations, I love how you always use the highest figures when talking about dvc cost, but when calculating value, you use lowest cost. It just doesn't work like that. That's like someone saying they just got a deal on a Mercedes, and you coming along and saying they didn't because they payed more than they would have paid by buying a Honda. Value and savings don't work like that. You ACTUALLY have a Mercedes....It's a deal because you saved money.

Buyers at VGF ACTUALLY own at VGF....so the only savings you can calculate it from would be the real costs of STAYING at the VGF...because that's where they are staying. If your contention is that they would have stayed at POR, I can't help you....because the FACT is that they WILL be staying at the Grand! That's the savings, my friend.

Just because I was thinking of buying a Honda, then got a great deal on a Mercedes....doesn't make it a bad deal....because I ACTUALLY have a Mercedes. Your calculation is merely a savings question on having A car....

While I haven't tracked them specifically, I have seen studios available at 7 months when I was looking at late may about 8 weeks ago. 3 of the 5 nights I was looking at were available at the time. Time will tell how much so but I do think it'll be more off season and short notice and not enough to count on staying there routinely not owning, but the idea they won't be available at all is unlikely and that was my point. The reality is that many owners there won't be able to get in at 11 months out either. As for numbers we'd have to look at specific examples to discuss the issue. Your car analogy assumes you will always drive the Mercedes. If you buy VGF and then stay at other ? lessor resorts fairly often, you've eroded any real value and since you paid almost triple what say SSR would cost plus higher yearly costs, it'd be easy to be in the negative for the life of the contract. Remember owning VGF isn't the only way to stay there, it's possible to do discounted cash and to rent from an owner. For an occasional stay there will be a point where it'd be cheaper to buy SSR and rent than to buy VGF. I'd have to do some calculations to get a reasonable break point but off the cuff I'd say around 50% of the points would have to be used at VGF to "break even" in this comparison. Obviously there's an aggravation factor one has to determine.

I don't think you've read my posts well. My position is and has been for some time that it's only reasonable to buy retail for a resort you can't get at a significant savings resale and if one plans to stay there a significant portion of the time and/or in a specific option that one MUST have periodically, say a 3 BR. Isn't this the point you're making also. I also believe it's better to be trying to trade up rather than down in almost all instances.

Well said Ben! Let's grab a beer and invite Dean to join us over at the Grand next December. I know he won't be staying there, but we will give him a temporary pass!! LOL

Beer's on you then.

Im going to stick my neck out here a little.. 1st of all we just bought in at the VGF last week..

This was after MANY posts of its a good idea or not.. Most of which Dean weighed in on. And was one of the few that check back and answer questions
It had gotten to the point that I HATED his is name pop up on my threads.. Sorry dean, but true!
I would swear up and down he was a broker on a resale site.. Just based on the way he pushes resale..
However after realizing I was being silly.. And all he was really explaining was if you want to own, this is the BEST price to do so at..
I was able to truly look over ( no emotion) what we were buying. And if it was really worth it to us.. And I thank dean for that..

Now that being said,
My DH and I factor every number out to the 10th degree!

We added value to the contract b/c it has the full 50 years.. (We are young, and plan to use all 50!)

Added a little value to it for emotional reason (yes, dean I know your screaming at the screen)
But like others have said, SSR just had no value for us.. And I didn't want to spend my vacation wishing I had bought somewhere else!

So after factoring in how we would use our points,
we choose to go with 150p vs. 200 and get 100 AKL on the resale. (Which I'm finding VERY difficult to do right now) But am trying play the waiting game..



I feel if dean had not weighted in , we would have gotten 200p. At the VGF instead of ending up with 250 in total!
So dean I know your the voice of resale here on the DIS..
I have grown to like you , and since we are now looking at spending about $200-$300 more then originally planned DH still hates you.. J/k
Dean does offer good information, altho pushes Resales for those who maybe pixie dust blinded..

Thank you, mission accomplished. Personally I'd rather talk someone out of buying than have them make a significant mistake if those are the only 2 choices. Even better to help them arrive at a better choice as above.

That's the part that I think he's missing. Not all DVC owners (in fact, I'd say substantially less than he thinks is the case) buy into DVC just to stay on property at WDW. They are buying to stay at a particular resort. Not everybody likes to resort hop, especially when they've bought at the top of the food chain. Trading to other DVC's from the Grand is like trading into RCI...you're giving up value. I've stayed at AKL and enjoyed it, but it can't compare to the Grand. If I want to stay there in the future, I'll rent out my points, then rent last minute points for $9-10/point and stay at AKL. There are ALWAYS rooms available there.

I will say that I feel badly for anyone paying current direct prices for places like AKL, which are more than 2x resale prices, and rooms are always available there. That's where sentiment has interfered with prudent decision-making. Value and pricing is directly related to supply/demand.

VGF is the smallest DVC property in the flagship resort of WDW. That's unbeatable conditions for sustained value....I would even suspect resales will exceed 130 in 10 years as direct prices continue to skyrocket. You see that increased value in other DVC's that have similar supply/demand scenarios....Like Beach Club....where current resales exceed original price.

See above, if you must be at a specific resort most of the time OR you need a specialty option, it's often best to own at that resort then the questions are simply can you afford it then how best to accomplish that. For VGF that's retail, same for VGC possible, for all else it's resale currently. I've said so MANY times. Even then there are exceptions. It's cheaper to own SSR and stay at AKV standard than to own AKV to use for the value units there.

I think the reason for the dean "hate" is that he tells people what they don't want to hear. If you've already bought AKV direct, you want to find any way to convince yourself that it was a good idea. If you are looking to buy, you really want to believe you are saving money and will "omit" certain variable to justify your decision. The reality is, I don't think most people do "honest" math when they are buying. They do the math that justifies what they already want to do.

That's certainly the goal, plus I attempt to speak to the principle rather than the person.

Nah, while I feel for folks that buy AKV at current direct prices, they are still going to save money over time....the purchase price is still a small percentage of the overall outlay of cash for DVC...it's just that they could have paid less. Still not a bad decision. I just don't think buying into DVC is a bad decision at any point....it's just a matter of how much you are going to save. Of course, if you buy into AKL direct and then sell 5 years later....well, that's not very smart.

Nobody "hates" Dean.....he's just a Debbie Downer.....or Dean Downer....and he talks like his truth is the only truth...and it isn't so....it's fun with statistics folks. An intelligent person can make statistics prove anything they want them to prove.... Dean uses it to make people feel like they were taken. The truth is that most current DVC owners are quite happy....

IMO the idea that all buyers will save money no matter how they buy is incorrect. Truthfully I don't think all resale buyers will save either.

 

[BenDiscipio]

Dean, they will all save money versus paying cash to disney for the same resort for the life of the contract they have purchased. Empirically so....there's really no debating that. Your debate would be that they don't want to stay there for 50 years or the argument you keep making about VGF purchases that owners will greater than 50% of the time want to "trade down" to another resort. Why would they do that? What's the incentive for a VGF owner to trade down to ANY resort? Except potentially BCV or maybe Boardwalk during F&W?

Why would somebody buy VGF to stay at SSR or OKW or AKV or BLT? I don't get it....am I missing something? You may know tons of people who like to resort hop....and for those buyers, yes, SSR is the way to go....if you don't care where you stay. But somebody buying in at VGF, I would wager, is doing so because they want to stay at the best.

Similar to trading "down" into RCI, why would they stay at a "lesser" resort? Better to rent their points out at a premium and then rent cheap points from another owner....if that's what they really wanted to do....but then...why?

 

[Msmithmd]

Ben, I get that your question was aimed at a specific contributor, but it's easy to answer.

"Why" is almost beside the point. The fact is that they will. Let me prove the case:

The Grand Californian isn't only the premier Disney hotel in California, it is the ONLY DVC property at Disneyland. And it has been fully "sold out" for years.

It is a high demand booking; there's no question of that. And yet every single year, several thousand DVC members who don't own points there are able to book.

I'm sure there are VGC members who, like you at VGF, will only use their points at their home resort. But thousands of others will choose to use their points at Aulani, somewhere in Florida or South Carolina, on a cruise, on a different hotel room, etc. And then there's the stat that contributors to Disboards don't even want to comprehend: some percentage of members will just let their points expire unused.

The reality of owners booking a different accommodation is exacerbated by the point chart. Sure, just about everyone who buys points at VGF will stay at their home resort for their first couple of trips. Then, some percentage will realize that it costs 1,419 points for a grand villa there in premier season versus 615 for a grand villa at OKW in the same season. Some of these people will want to get an extra trip in a given year, knowing they can go back to VGF many times in the future.

Now, you and I are in complete agreement that VGF is a premium accommodation compared to anything else built in Orlando thus far. But still, for over double the point costs, some percent of owners will make a decision to stay in the resorts you characterize as "lesser," and get an extra trip in a given year.

And, some of them will want one of those Polynesian bungalows.

 

[BenDiscipio]

Ben, I get that your question was aimed at a specific contributor, but it's easy to answer.

"Why" is almost beside the point. The fact is that they will. Let me prove the case:

The Grand Californian isn't only the premier Disney hotel in California, it is the ONLY DVC property at Disneyland. And it has been fully "sold out" for years.

It is a high demand booking; there's no question of that. And yet every single year, several thousand DVC members who don't own points there are able to book.

I'm sure there are VGC members who, like you at VGF, will only use their points at their home resort. But thousands of others will choose to use their points at Aulani, somewhere in Florida or South Carolina, on a cruise, on a different hotel room, etc. And then there's the stat that contributors to Disboards don't even want to comprehend: some percentage of members will just let their points expire unused.

The reality of owners booking a different accommodation is exacerbated by the point chart. Sure, just about everyone who buys points at VGF will stay at their home resort for their first couple of trips. Then, some percentage will realize that it costs 1,419 points for a grand villa there in premier season versus 615 for a grand villa at OKW in the same season. Some of these people will want to get an extra trip in a given year, knowing they can go back to VGF many times in the future.

Now, you and I are in complete agreement that VGF is a premium accommodation compared to anything else built in Orlando thus far. But still, for over double the point costs, some percent of owners will make a decision to stay in the resorts you characterize as "lesser," and get an extra trip in a given year.

And, some of them will want one of those Polynesian bungalows.

Yes, there will be some who will. Though, I think if someone is thinking of getting 2 trips in instead of one, they are better off selling their VGF points and buying SSR points....that's a poor use of premium points. They could buy SSR points instead and get 3 trips instead of 2.

If they are buying VGF points, I think you are going to find that the majority will use them either at VGF, a cruise, Aulani or VGC....with most being used at VGF. I don't think you're going to get a lot of people using those points to hop to lower DVC's....just doesn't make much sense. As I stated, if they don't want to pay the points to stay at VGF, doesn't make sense to buy there, does it?

 

[Lorilais_mommie]

I'm sure this is the case in some travelers, but even in those case the traveler is getting something extra with those points.. Bigger room, An extra trip, or a possible trade up to the poly. For my family VGF is best for us, so I bought there.. Should my sister buy in at the poly, and we choose to take a trip together.. We may look a getting a bigger room at another resort.. One that would fit our needs.. One of us will have to give up our premium point, for getting a room together...

 

[Noelle]

Why would somebody buy VGF to stay at SSR or OKW or AKV or BLT? I don't get it....am I missing something? You may know tons of people who like to resort hop....and for those buyers, yes, SSR is the way to go....if you don't care where you stay. But somebody buying in at VGF, I would wager, is doing so because they want to stay at the best.

While I agree with your last sentence that people who buy VGF would want to stay at the best. I think you overlook a large portion of the people that buy DVC direct because they do not know resales exist. They don't know there is any other resorts they can buy except VGF or Aluani. I believe these people buy the points they can afford. Just reading the Disboards, there are questions every week from people that didn't know they could buy resale or other resorts and the population that post to the boards is a small sampling.
But once these owners look at the amount of nights and the accommodations the points they have will get them and compare to what they can get at another resort, they might be tempted to trade out - even if it is every 2nd or 3rd year. I say this from experience. I own at BCV & SSR (both direct sales). Yet over the years, I have spent more time in OKW rooms. So much so that it's our second favorite place to be...next to BCV and for Xmas, we prefer OKW. My husband I often commented that if we had known we could have bought OKW points, we probably wouldn't have bought at SSR.
Now, 10 years after our original purchase; we need 2 bedrooms every trip so we are adding points on by buying OKW resale.
Life circumstances change. Some times, the idea of having a larger room or a longer stay can change your original game plan.

 

[disneynutz]

If they are buying VGF points, I think you are going to find that the majority will use them either at VGF, a cruise, Aulani or VGC....with most being used at VGF. I don't think you're going to get a lot of people using those points to hop to lower DVC's....just doesn't make much sense. As I stated, if they don't want to pay the points to stay at VGF, doesn't make sense to buy there, does it?

A couple of thoughts, if owners at VGF don't use their points at another resort, availability at 7 months will be zero.

Disney is great at converting money to points, credits, Disney Dollars, gift cards, etc. It isn't money, just points, and points are easy to use where they don't make it best financial sense. Just like the argument that you can use a table service credit on the DDP to buy a hamburger at Pecos Bill's because it's just credits, not money.

Bill

 

[Msmithmd]

It sure would be interesting if DVC released the figures annually on what percent of the year's total points used at each resort were booked by home resort owners, wouldn't it?

Of course, this would somewhat overestimate home resort use (as it wouldn't account for home-resort booked rentals). But still, it would be interesting to see what percent of the total "home use" was at, for example BWV, versus SSR, versus VGF...

I'm in agreement that VGF will have a higher percent of owners who stay "home resort" than other properties, at least for its' first few years of operation. But after those first few years, I'd predict that it will drop down significantly. How much remains to be seen.

People often don't make the most economical decision. I agree that if I were to personally buy VGF points, I wouldn't use them anywhere else.

Perhaps the wisest purchasers are those who have cheap resale points to move around the various resorts, and also own a smaller more expensive contract at their most favorite high-demand option, for stays only there.

But remember that we are talking about a timeshare, pixie dust or not. Plenty of folks have bought in with the minimum cash amount down, accepted the highest possible finance rate, and only considered whether they could make the minimum monthly payment. These folks are not legendary examples of financial acumen.

I think it's generous to assume that the aggregate of people buying VGF, or any other timeshare, are going to be making the most economically prudent choice, when it comes to how to use their points.

So I gladly concede the point that "financially prudent" owners would need to think long and hard before trading out of VGF. I'm just certain that a lot of them will do it anyway- for reasons both good and bad.

 

[DVCcurious]

My conclusion is if you get a screaming deal at resale (late 2012) your break even is like 5 years. So those who bought BWV for $55 per point with banked points break even in about 5 years. If you get a generic resale deal, say BWV for $80 your break even is about 7 years. If you buy direct your break even is about 10 years.

You must be ignoring the time value of money on the up front cost AND comparing to the rack rate of DVC to arrive at those times. If so, both are mistakes in my opinion and significantly underestimates ones costs.

OK, Dean, let me "open the kimono" as they say in my industry and I will reveal to you my math.

The only way to compare buying DVC vs not buying, in my opinion, is comparing buying DVC and staying at DVC with your points (not renting any out) vs Renting DVC points and staying at DVC for the same amount of time as if you owned. This way the points used buy vs rent are the same. It's completely identical: if you buy you are staying in a DVC room, if you rent you are staying in a DVC room, if you want a 1 BR you have to buy more points or rent more points. It's too difficult to compare DVC to rack rates, but Renting DVC vs Buying DVC is a perfect, flawless comparison.

Right now a well respected rental site charges $14 per point. So let's use that as our example.

BWV were selling for $55 per point back in 2012 with banked points. The dues are roughly $6 per point. So if you were to rent you'd pay $14 per point annually for your stay, if you were to buy you'd pay $6 per point annually for your stay. Through buying you "save" $8 per point for each year you stay at WDW plus you got "free" banked points. If you rented you'd have to rent those banked points for all point usage to be equivalent. Since you bought we should deduct the rental value of those banked points. So your $55 cost was really like $41 ($55-$14 rental). Now, with the $8 per point difference between buying vs renting, and a $41 purchase point after factoring the banked points you can see that you would break even in 5 years (41/8 = 5).

Now BWV is about $80, so you have $25 more up front divided by the $8 savings each year gives you three more years, or about 8 years for breakeven if you buy today.

That is my math. If you want to discuss the time value of money then I'd point out that with such a short time horizon (5 years) you'd have to invest the money in a CD earning 1%, so it's not like TVM really affects this in any way. The math for you since you will say TVM does matter: $55 per point X 1% X 5 years = 2.55 per point you would have made in interest (although this overstates it because you would've been spending $8 per year on your trip so you'd actually have less invested earning that 1% each year). So your break even becomes like 5.5 years instead of 5.

Buying DVC pays off vs Renting DVC points if you are going to go to WDW annually for the next 5 years (screaming deal), 8 years (today's resale), or 17 years (guestimate of buying direct utlizing the $8 difference in rent vs dues and the $150 price point vs $80 resale). Of course buying direct I will agree that TVM should factor in because a 17 year payback you could invest some of that cash in the market and get better than 1%. Buying direct will take longer to break even, but it will break even eventually. In fact I'd guarantee you'd break even within 25 years and with a 50 year time horizon on VGF I think people who buy at direct prices will come out ahead.