PVB right now has a little supply & demand problem right now, there are a ton of PVB contracts out there for sale, but there aren't a lot of buyers. If you look at a lot of the Brokers out there they have a lot of contracts listed, this is what is keeping the price from going above BLT or VGF.
You're right. Until the demand problem gets solved, it'll be here for a while. But I still find this interesting, the demand problem isn't for PVB the resort. It's for PVB the contract. Multiple
DVC rental sites still list PVB as one of the most in demand resorts. Availability threads and calculators say the same thing. So it doesn't make sense that real demand is high, but committment demand is low. That tells me it isn't a fundamental issue with the resort itself but rather other things that are driving the supply and demand and it's a perfect storm of problems for PVB, which is 4/5 years old at this point that both drives supply up and demand down.
Supply:
+ Large initial supply to begin with
+ Supply cycle where original buyers are Disney'd out, or family is growing up.
+ Recently sold out, regret buyers still selling
+ Excess of points as a result of Bungalos
Demand:
- Loss of direct marketting support
- Competition from new DVC resorts
- New transportation system overshadows monorail (including recent monorail issues)
- Changes in DVC resale rules
- Lack of 1BR to support prices like VGF has
Despite this, I still think we're at the bottom. The market will follow the money and the money tells me the value will be hard to ignore.
Id find it hard to imagine that PVB would EVER be within $20-30pp of SARATOGA....monorail resort....only problem that devalues them slightly is nothing other than studios and massive bungalows.
It's already there -
Page 1 of this post of contracts that passed.
SSR: 92-120 (Highest SSR taken @ $102)
PVB: 128-153
I just passed ROFR and it was $26 more than the highest SSR contract taken by Disney and there's a couple more offers on the bottom PVB range in ROFR now. Perhaps part of the demand problem is that not many realize it's fallen that far - or that some of the value dvcs have risen that much.
How do you know 5.7% hike?
It's not that there will be a 5.7% hike. It's that historically, BLT has seen a CAGR of 5.7% increase in dues. The highest of any WDW resort, ranking behind only Hilton Head.
If you just started researching DVC, you're probably looking for terms like "best dvc resort" or "best dvc value" on google. Some of those articles will publish the history of dues for each resort. If you take one of the top results as an example, it was published in 2016. In 2016, the dues for BLT were $5.28/pt. PVB was $6.09/pt. Which led the author to make a statement (paraphrased) to say that BLT isn't their favorite resort; only the one they would buy for the value. Their favorite resort would be either Wilderness Lodge or the Poly. Today, BLT and PVB dues are within 2 cents of each other - BLT's dues increases are far outpacing that of PVB. So when we start to see an intersection between desired demand and value demand - and maybe a couple of articles to update - then we might start seeing the prices go back up.